{"id":149493,"url":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/149493","video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/1441ba9c2015bdbe67b5a32f0f7aa4a935d7358300cbb288f8ba9b0039caa7a6d855ff8e15c192c65ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"牛煦庭","委員發言時間":"10:18:14 - 10:29:28","影片長度":"00:11:14","會議時間":"2024-03-07T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期內政委員會第4次全體委員會議（事由：邀請大陸委員會主任委員及財團法人海峽交流基金會董事長列席報告業務概況，並備質詢。）","meet":{"tmpMeeting":null,"title":"第11屆第1會期內政委員會第4次全體委員會議","term":11,"type":"委員會","sessionPeriod":1,"sessionTimes":4,"committees":[15],"id":"委員會-11-1-15-4"},"date":"2024-03-07","duration":674,"end_time":"2024-03-07T10:29:28+08:00","start_time":"2024-03-07T10:18:14+08:00","features":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"type":"Clip","gazette":{"lineno":484,"blocks":[["牛委員煦庭：（10時18分）有請陸委會主委邱太三，還有海基會董事長李大維。"],["主席：請邱主委、李董事長。"],["邱主任委員太三：牛委員好。"],["牛委員煦庭：謝謝主席。兩位早安。"],["邱主任委員太三：早。"],["李董事長大維：早。"],["牛委員煦庭：先看一下照片吧，這位是誰？解答一下。"],["李董事長大維：劉建超。"],["牛委員煦庭：看起來李大維董事長反應比較快，主委應該也知道吧？"],["邱主任委員太三：對啦。"],["牛委員煦庭：這個很重要，好不好？"],["邱主任委員太三：上面有寫對外聯絡部。"],["牛委員煦庭：對外聯絡部，沒錯。一個講出單位，一個講出名字，那是不錯的。前一陣子媒體盛傳他很有可能會接掌中國大陸這邊的外交一把手，也講說可能會在中共兩會的時候來做宣布，在外媒的詮釋上來講，這可能是對中美關係有比較大的影響，因為相對於王毅來講，他可能是相對溫和的，在各大媒體的解讀上是這樣；但是兩會好像已經稍微告一段落，而這樣的人事發布並沒有出現，感覺中國大陸對外的人事布局沒有太大的變化。我們一開始先開放一點，我想請問兩位怎麼解讀這樣子的人事安排？對於美中關係的變化是什麼？一個人30秒，好不好？我們時間有限。"],["邱主任委員太三：基本上剛剛也有提到，大概中國大陸他們的人事雖然最終是要在人大確定，但是他們原則上以黨領政，所以在三中全會，我們本來以為它會對未來的經濟政策跟它的人事布局，三中全會會先開完，再交給人大來做處理，不過這次沒有的話，確實是有一點值得我們後續要注意的地方。"],["牛委員煦庭：好，李大維董事長怎麼詮釋這樣的事情？"],["李董事長大維：報告牛委員，因為……"],["牛委員煦庭：我知道時間有點短……"],["李董事長大維：海基會的職掌並沒有掌管人事的部分，但是……"],["牛委員煦庭：我聽一聽評估。"],["李董事長大維：這樣子，我想劉建超先生是一位很資深的外交官，過去大家普遍認為他的姿態比較柔軟，所以外媒是採取一個比較樂觀的態度，希望他不要再比較戰狼。"],["牛委員煦庭：所以在這樣子的狀況落空之下，兩位對於這件事情的政治意涵會怎麼解讀？中國大陸接下來在對外政策上面會繼續強硬嗎？還是可能有改變的契機？"],["邱主任委員太三：委員大概很清楚美中才是一個關鍵所在。"],["牛委員煦庭：對啊！"],["邱主任委員太三：從去年的舊金山會議之後，雙方都希望能夠建立一個一定階層的工作聯繫會報，加上今年是美國總統的大選……"],["牛委員煦庭：敏感。"],["邱主任委員太三：中國對於美國整體的情勢應該會有比較審慎的處理，我們看它最近的態度上面，雙方都希望能夠建立工作的對話層級並持續不斷，以避免意外的出現。"],["牛委員煦庭：李大維董事長對於這樣的布局、這樣的走向，你是樂觀還是悲觀？會不會順利？就是中美之間你覺得是會升溫還是會低盪？我簡單一點問你。"],["李董事長大維：在臺灣，中華民國外交官沒有悲觀的權利，就樂觀以對……"],["牛委員煦庭：很好，這個回答我願意同意。"],["李董事長大維：但是我們也想到最可能壞的狀況。"],["牛委員煦庭：因為局勢的變化。我為什麼要先從中美關係來切入，就是因為大的局勢變化當然會影響兩岸關係。我要再追問一下，但我們時間實在是有限，下一張投影片一樣是外媒1月的時候開始在傳美國國務卿布林肯可能要訪中，有可能就定在春季，甚至還會延伸，有可能會有再一次的拜習會，但看起來，兩位覺得成局的機會大嗎？"],["邱主任委員太三：坦白講，這我沒有辦法，我們陸委會……"],["牛委員煦庭：你沒有辦法回答，那我問李董事長，你覺得呢？"],["李董事長大維：我不能以董事長的身分回答這個問題，但是布林肯能夠去北京是好事情。"],["主席：不好意思，李董事長，你今天來這邊的身分是海基會的董事長……"],["牛委員煦庭：就是沒有問題的，我要問的是評估。"],["李董事長大維：那我就沒辦法回答啦！"],["牛委員煦庭：不會，我問的是評估。"],["主席：你可以在私底下跟他回應，但是……"],["牛委員煦庭：對啦！你可以說評估啦！好不好？"],["主席：但你不能夠、你不能說、你不能……","你現在在立法院，你不是以個人的身分，抱歉，我提醒一下，謝謝。"],["李董事長大維：我知道，我不是以個人的身分。"],["牛委員煦庭：董事長，我不是要問我們的官方立場，但是我要瞭解我們官方對於中美政治走向的評估，我們今天提這樣子的用意是這樣，所以您覺得評估是中美之間有機會稍微和緩一點，所以這個局有可能成，還是你覺得我們恐怕要再審慎一點觀察？"],["李董事長大維：基本上我們是希望看到他們關係走到……"],["牛委員煦庭：希望看到關係和緩，好，謝謝。去談這樣的事就是因為我剛剛所講的，中美關係會影響未來的兩岸關係，今天是業務報告，我們大家談一些大方向的事情。2024的兩岸關係，我希望聽到像李大維董事長這樣子的回答，因為兩岸關係從目前我們所看到的各種跡象來看，其實是山雨欲來啊！從金門海域的局勢升高，ECFA取消關稅優惠到團客赴陸的轉彎，感覺沒有樂觀的本錢，當然這是民進黨政府的政治決策，這是你們的執政方向，我當然就要問一下接下來一些細節上的處理。邱主委，還記得我們在禮拜一質詢的時候，我問了3個問題請你書面答復嗎？你到現在書面都還沒有回來，速度是有點慢的，我要先講一下，關於金門撞船案的後續，兩岸是不是有這樣子的默契？然後第二個是默契出現歧異的時候，有沒有處理的機制？你今天就直接回答我好了，現在看起來這個禁限制水域的狀況是被破壞掉的，請問遇到這樣子的狀況的時候，我們的處置方式是什麼？"],["邱主任委員太三：其實那天我想我跟管主委大概有回應了啦！基本上我們對於所謂禁限制水域的執法有一套SOP，這個SOP海巡署……"],["牛委員煦庭：我不是問你執法吧？我那天就講了，你當然不負責執法，但是問題是你負責的是跟對岸的溝通嘛，對不對？"],["邱主任委員太三：對。"],["牛委員煦庭：你現在遇到這樣子局勢升溫的情況，我們是透過哪一條管道來處理？"],["邱主任委員太三：兩個層面，其實那天周美伍署長大概有提到，其實過去兩岸在海上執法的部分，恐怕有30次以上共同打擊犯罪、海上的救助，這個都是兩岸的海巡單位他們本來就有進行，我想那一天周美伍署長應該有跟你報告……"],["牛委員煦庭：你不要把問題推給海巡……"],["邱主任委員太三：對，第二個……"],["牛委員煦庭：我的問題是你現在作為陸委會，你要跟他溝通，面對局勢升溫，你透過哪一條管道表達了什麼樣的立場？你是走降溫呢？還是就乾脆捍衛我們的立場？"],["邱主任委員太三：當然是降溫啊！有誰希望升溫呢？"],["牛委員煦庭：你希望是降溫？"],["邱主任委員太三：對啊！一定是走降溫的方向。"],["牛委員煦庭：好，但是你對於能夠順利降溫有多少把握？"],["邱主任委員太三：我想一個銅板敲不響啦！"],["牛委員煦庭：所以現在是你想降溫，對方不想降溫的意思？"],["邱主任委員太三：我們在等待對方，因為談判的過程中，當然各有所堅持，也各有一些進展，但是最後有一些他們可能認為有政治敏感或者是其他敏感的部分……"],["牛委員煦庭：所以你給這題的答案叫一個巴掌拍不響嘛，對不對？你希望降溫，但是對於結果沒有把握？"],["邱主任委員太三：所有的談判協商，本來就是雙方要……"],["牛委員煦庭：當然，你有多大的把握？"],["邱主任委員太三：目標一致才會達成。"],["牛委員煦庭：你有多大把握可以順利降溫？然後這件事可以善了？"],["邱主任委員太三：我們也都持續在關注對岸的一些反應。"],["牛委員煦庭：好，這是一個題目。第二個題目是ECFA，這個我請李大維董事長來回答好了，畢竟當初簽的時候還是用海基、海協的方式來簽。1月的時候、其實去年的時候它就宣布說要終止12項的優惠關稅並說會研究其他項次的取消，當然這對臺灣的產業來講也許會造成一些衝擊，請問李大維董事長，依你的評估，今年有沒有可能？就發生在今年，除了這12項以外，剩下的項次會不會取消？如果有可能被取消的話，哪一些項次會優先被取消？"],["李董事長大維：事實上ECFA是互利互惠的，不是單方面的，也就是它取消了以後，其可能造成的後果、對於臺商甚至於對外商都會有……"],["牛委員煦庭：有各種連鎖反應嘛？"],["李董事長大維：對，連鎖反應。"],["牛委員煦庭：對，以你的評估來講，會不會有這樣子的狀況？"],["李董事長大維：我認為陸方會非常審慎處理這個案子，不會憑著1、2個原因就做決定。"],["牛委員煦庭：所以覺得剩下的項目今年應該不會取消嘛？"],["李董事長大維：我還是審慎的樂觀。"],["牛委員煦庭：好，謝謝。本席在這邊要提出這樣的關心的原因是因為，今天不管是陸委會主委或者是海基會董事長，當然就是面對兩岸溝通的第一線，你們對於政治局勢的掌握跟政治局勢的判斷跟預判會影響我們中央政府其他部會處理這些事情的具體方式，所以兩位的判斷其實很重要，當你們樂觀、認為會降溫的時候，政府相關的配套就會往這裡對焦，但是萬一沒有做到，你可能會那個，我寧願希望在這樣子的議事堂聽到實話，比如可能會升溫，你乾脆早一點講有可能會升溫，我們的關稅優惠有可能繼續被取消的話，你就提早講，至少讓我們政府的其他部會提早做因應，這是本席今天質詢的意義。","第三個是團客赴陸，這我跟邱太三主委昨天也講了，熱臉貼冷屁股，這就是一個很不好的例子嘛，對不對？"],["邱主任委員太三：對。"],["牛委員煦庭：你當然可以講金門的問題是海巡要負責，ECFA的問題經濟部要負責，團客赴陸的問題是交通部負責，可是關鍵是這些跟兩岸相關的、跟兩岸的局勢有關，兩岸局勢就是你們負責嘛，對不對？"],["邱主任委員太三：對。"],["牛委員煦庭：你兩岸局勢掌握得不好、轉彎或什麼的時候，其實就影響了其他部會的執行績效，然後再進一步影響其他產業，我們今天在這個地方提質詢，對於2024的兩岸關係，本席個人表達是有一點悲觀，剛剛我們談中美關係，為什麼我先講劉建超，為什麼我們提布林肯，因為看起來本來世界所期待的中美的低盪，讓局勢趨於穩定，也是我們李大維董事長希望的局勢，從實際上的發展看起來好像沒有這麼順利嘛？劉建超是被認定為鴿派的人，但他並沒有接任外事部的一把手，對不對？本來希望布林肯訪陸，現在看起來中國的姿態擺得非常高，看起來中國大陸會用強硬的單邊主義來處理全世界的局勢，也會用相對強硬升溫的方式來處理兩岸的問題。所以我希望兩位，雖然大家心裡都希望審慎樂觀，但是我要提醒未來的政府可能要做局勢升溫的全面準備。"],["邱主任委員太三：好，謝謝委員。"],["牛委員煦庭：所以今天在這個地方提這個質詢，我當然希望我們的預警不要成真，但是如果不幸成真，當初大家希望樂觀、希望降溫的狀況沒有發生的時候，我不希望我們的政府再發生像團客這樣的事情，本來是樂觀預期、後來卻滿臉豆花的狀況絕對不能再發生，我寧願你們提早做好準備，這樣可以嗎？"],["邱主任委員太三：好。"],["牛委員煦庭：好，兩位辛苦，謝謝。"],["邱主任委員太三：謝謝委員的指教。"],["主席：非常謝謝牛煦庭委員的質詢，謝謝主委，謝謝李董事長，謝謝。","繼續我們請黃捷委員質詢。黃捷委員質詢結束，我們休息3分鐘，謝謝。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":268,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-15-4","speakers":["高金素梅","麥玉珍","徐欣瑩","羅智強","王美惠","李柏毅","蘇巧慧","張宏陸","牛煦庭","黃捷","黃建賓","丁學忠","吳琪銘","鍾佳濱","張智倫","許宇甄"],"page_start":215,"meetingDate":["2024-03-07"],"gazette_id":"1130701","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1130701_00005"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第1會期內政委員會第4次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請大陸委員會主任委員及財團法人海峽交流基金會董事長列席報告業務概況，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1130701_00004"}},"transcript":{"id":"149493","pyannote":{"name":"ronny","tool":"pyannote","data":{"url":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/149493","tool":"pyannote","id":"149493-pyannote"},"job_id":"4dCobxIFdWjhQIia","queued_at":"2024-06-02 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{\"word\": \"準\", \"start\": 663.742, \"end\": 663.762, \"score\": 0.025}, {\"word\": \"備\"}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"樣\"}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 663.762, \"end\": 663.862, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 663.862, \"end\": 663.882, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"嗎\"}, {\"word\": \"兩\"}, {\"word\": \"位\", \"start\": 665.043, \"end\": 665.144, \"score\": 0.784}, {\"word\": \"辛\", \"start\": 665.144, \"end\": 665.164, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"苦\", \"start\": 665.164, \"end\": 665.184, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:00,649 --> 00:00:05,612\n請陸委會主委邱太三還有海基會董事長李大維謝謝謝謝主席兩位早安\n\n2\n00:00:18,505 --> 00:00:45,610\n這個先看一下照片吧這位是誰解答一下看起來這個李大輝董事長反應比較快喔主委應該也知道吧這個很重要好不好有一個講出單位一個講出名字那是不錯的對阿這個前一陣子喔這個媒體盛傳他很有可能會接掌這個這個中國大陸這邊的這個外交的一把手\n\n3\n00:00:46,450 --> 00:01:03,944\n那也講說可能會在中共兩會的時候來做宣布那在外媒的詮釋上來講這可能是對中美關係有比較大的影響因為相對王毅來講他可能是一個相對溫和的在各大媒體的解讀上是這樣但是兩會好像已經稍微告一段落\n\n4\n00:01:04,604 --> 00:01:14,630\n但這樣子的人事發布並沒有出現感覺中國大陸對外的人事布局沒有太大的變化我們一開始先開放一點我想請問兩位怎麼解讀這樣子的人事安排對於美中關係的變化是什麼一個人30秒好不好我們時間有限\n\n5\n00:01:24,295 --> 00:01:45,222\n基本上剛剛有提到大概中國大陸他們的人事雖然最終是要在人大確定但是呢他們原則上以黨領政所以在三中全會我們本來以為他會對未來的經濟政策跟他的人事的佈局三中全會會先開完那再交給人大來做處理這一次沒有說話確實是有一點值得我們後續要\n\n6\n00:01:51,264 --> 00:02:15,975\n李道遠董事長怎麼詮釋這樣的事情?這時間有點短我已經為了執掌並沒有掌管這個人事的部分我想劉建超先生他是一個很資深的外交官在過去普遍大家認為他的姿態比較柔軟所以說外媒是採取一個比較樂觀的態度希望他不要再比較戰狼\n\n7\n00:02:17,409 --> 00:02:41,295\n所以在這樣子的狀況落空的情況之下這兩位對於這件事情的政治意涵怎麼解讀中國大陸接下來在對外政策上面繼續強硬嗎還是有可能有改變的契機我想委員大概很清楚大概美中才是一個關鍵所在那從去年的舊金山會議之後呢那雙方就希望說能夠建立一個一定階層的這樣的一個工作聯繫匯報那加上\n\n8\n00:02:44,416 --> 00:03:01,403\n今年是美國總統的大選中國應該是對於美國的整體的情勢會有比較審慎的處理我們看他最近的態度上面雙方都希望建立工作的對話層級能夠持續不斷以避免意外的出現\n\n9\n00:03:02,182 --> 00:03:19,231\n李道遠董事長對於這樣子的一個布局這樣的一個走向你是樂觀還是悲觀?會不會順利?就是中美之間你覺得是會升溫還是會低檔?很簡單一點在台灣中華民國外交官是沒有悲觀的權利很好這個回答我願意同意但是呢我們也想到這個最可能壞的這個狀況\n\n10\n00:03:21,906 --> 00:03:48,428\n因為局勢的變化為什麼要先從中美關係來切入就是因為大的局勢變化當然會影響我們兩岸關係那我要再問一下再追問一下但時間實在是有點限下一張投影片來這個美國國務卿布林肯本來這一樣是外媒在1月的時候開始去傳可能布林肯要來訪中但有可能就定在春季甚至大家會延伸可能有再次的所謂的派奇會但看起來喔這個兩位覺得成局的機會大嗎\n\n11\n00:03:51,074 --> 00:04:13,793\n這我沒有辦法回答那我問李董事長你覺得我不能以董事長的身份回答這個問題但是這個布林肯這個李董事長您今天來這邊的身份是就是沒有問題的我要問的是評估啦不會我問的是評估你可以說私底下跟他回答\n\n12\n00:04:17,036 --> 00:04:37,155\n你現在在立法院你不是個人的身份抱歉我提醒你董事長這個我不是要問我們的官方立場但是我要了解我們官方對於中美政治走向的評估我們今天提這樣的事情的用意是這樣所以您覺得評估是這個有機會中美之間稍微和緩一點所以這個局有可能成還是你覺得恐怕我們應該要審慎一點再觀察\n\n13\n00:04:38,456 --> 00:04:38,676\n中美關係會影響未來兩岸關係\n\n14\n00:04:56,564 --> 00:05:22,535\n我希望聽到像李大維這樣李大維董事長這樣子的回答因為兩岸關係目前我們所看到的各種跡象來看其實是山雨欲來從金門海域的局勢升高ECFA取消關稅優惠到我們的入客團客復入的轉彎感覺沒有樂觀的本錢那當然這個是民進黨政府的政治決策這是你們的執政的方向那我當然就要問一下接下來一些細節上的處理\n\n15\n00:05:24,016 --> 00:05:42,411\n邱主委還記得我們在禮拜一的質詢的時候我請你我問了三個問題請你書面答覆嘛你這個到現在書面都還沒有回來是速度是有點慢的我要先講一下金門撞船案的後續啦兩岸是不是有這樣子的默契然後第二個是默契出現起義的時候有沒有處理的機制你今天就直接回答我好了\n\n16\n00:05:43,787 --> 00:06:12,480\n現在看起來這個禁限制水域的狀況是被破壞掉的請問遇到這樣子的狀況的時候我們處置的方式是什麼其實那天我想我跟管主委大概有回應了那基本上就是我們對於所謂禁限制水域的執法我們有一套的SOP那這個SOP呢海巡署我不是問你執法嘛我那天就講了你當然不負責執法但是問題是你負責的是跟對岸的溝通嘛對不對你現在遇到這樣子局勢升溫的情況下我們是透過哪一條管道來處理\n\n17\n00:06:13,881 --> 00:06:33,274\n兩個層面其實那天那個周美武署長他大概有提到其實過去兩岸在海上執法的部分大概過去恐怕有30次以上的共同打擊犯罪海上的救助那這個都是兩岸的海巡單位他們本來就有進行我想那天周美武署長應該有跟你報告你不要把問題推給海巡我的問題是你現在作為陸委會你現在跟他溝通面對局勢升溫你透過哪一條管道表達了什麼樣的立場\n\n18\n00:06:39,699 --> 00:06:50,907\n你是走降溫呢還是乾脆我們就捍衛我們的立場有升溫的對啊一定是走降溫的方向但是你對於能夠順利降溫你有多少把握這我想一個銅板敲不響\n\n19\n00:06:51,955 --> 00:07:13,627\n所以現在你想降溫對方不想降溫的意思喔我們在等待對方因為談判的過程中當然各有所堅持也各有一些進展但是呢最後有一些他們可能認為有政治敏感或者是其他敏感的問題所以你給這題的答案叫一個巴掌拍不響嘛對不對你希望降溫但是對結果沒有把握當然你有多大把握可以順利降溫然後這個是可以善良\n\n20\n00:07:20,971 --> 00:07:44,302\n我們也都持續在關注對海峽的反應這一個題目第二個題目是ECFA這個我請李大偉董事長來回答畢竟當初簽的時候還是用海基海協的方式來簽這個1月的時候其實去年的時候他就說要宣布終止12項的優惠關稅並且講說會研究其他項次的取消這個當然對台灣的產業來講也許會造成一些的衝擊\n\n21\n00:07:47,430 --> 00:08:12,781\n請問李道遠董事長你的評估今年有沒有可能就發生在今年除了這12項以外剩下的項次會被取消如果有可能被取消的話哪一些項次會優先被取消事實上ECFA是互利互惠的不是單方面的也就是說是你取消了以後也可能造成的後果對於台商甚至於對於外商的各種連鎖反應\n\n22\n00:08:15,162 --> 00:08:17,323\n我認為陸方會非常的審慎處理這個案子不會憑著一兩個原因就做一個決定我還是審慎的樂觀\n\n23\n00:08:31,829 --> 00:08:51,549\n審慎樂觀好謝謝本席在這邊要提出這樣的關係的原因是因為如果今天不管是陸委會主委或者是海基會董事長當然就是面對兩岸溝通的第一線你們對於政治局勢的掌握跟政治局勢的判斷跟預判會影響我們中央政府其他部會處理這些事情的具體方式\n\n24\n00:08:52,210 --> 00:09:19,320\n所以兩位的判斷其實是很重要的當你們樂觀你們認為會降溫的時候那大家政府相關的配套就會往這裡對焦但是萬一沒有做到的時候你可能會那個我寧願希望在這樣子的議事堂我們就聽到實話如果中午可能會升溫你乾脆早一點講有可能會升溫我們的關稅優惠有可能如果繼續被取消的話你就提早講至少讓我們政府的其他部會做提早的因應這是本期今天質詢的意義第三個是盤克復路啊這個我跟邱太三主委昨天也講了\n\n25\n00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:36,461\n熱臉貼冷屁股這個就是一個很不好的例子嘛對不對因為你當然可以講說啊這個金門的問題是海巡要負責M法問題經濟部要負責團客附路的問題交通部負責可是關鍵是這些跟兩岸相關的跟兩岸的局勢有關兩岸局勢就你們負責嘛\n\n26\n00:09:38,723 --> 00:09:56,232\n兩岸局勢你掌握不好轉彎或什麼的時候其實就影響了其他部位的執行績效然後再進一步影響其他產業我們今天在這個地方提質詢2024的兩岸關係本期個人是表達有一點悲觀剛剛我們談中美關係為什麼我先講劉建超為什麼我們提布林肯\n\n27\n00:09:56,832 --> 00:10:12,882\n因為看起來本來世界所期待的中美的低檔讓局勢趨於穩定也是我們李大維董事長希望的這樣子的局勢從實際上的發展看起來好像沒有那麼順利嘛劉建超被認定鴿派的人並沒有接任外資部的一把手\n\n28\n00:10:13,882 --> 00:10:36,260\n本來希望布林肯訪路現在看起來中國姿態擺得非常高看起來中國大陸會用強硬的單邊主義來處理全世界的局勢也會用相對強硬升溫的方式來處理兩岸的問題所以我希望兩位雖然大家心裡都希望審慎樂觀但是我要提醒未來的政府\n\n29\n00:10:36,900 --> 00:11:03,882\n可能要做局勢升溫的全面準備所以今天在這個地方提這個質詢希望我當然希望我們的這個預警不要成真但是如果不幸成真當初大家的預觀希望樂觀希望降溫的狀況沒有發生的時候我不希望我們的政府再發生像團客這樣的事情是本來樂觀預期然後後來滿臉逗話的狀況絕對不能再發生我寧願你們提早做好準備這樣可以嗎\n\n30\n00:11:05,043 --> 00:11:05,184\n兩位辛苦,謝謝\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n649\t5612\t請陸委會主委邱太三還有海基會董事長李大維謝謝謝謝主席兩位早安\n18505\t45610\t這個先看一下照片吧這位是誰解答一下看起來這個李大輝董事長反應比較快喔主委應該也知道吧這個很重要好不好有一個講出單位一個講出名字那是不錯的對阿這個前一陣子喔這個媒體盛傳他很有可能會接掌這個這個中國大陸這邊的這個外交的一把手\n46450\t63944\t那也講說可能會在中共兩會的時候來做宣布那在外媒的詮釋上來講這可能是對中美關係有比較大的影響因為相對王毅來講他可能是一個相對溫和的在各大媒體的解讀上是這樣但是兩會好像已經稍微告一段落\n64604\t74630\t但這樣子的人事發布並沒有出現感覺中國大陸對外的人事布局沒有太大的變化我們一開始先開放一點我想請問兩位怎麼解讀這樣子的人事安排對於美中關係的變化是什麼一個人30秒好不好我們時間有限\n84295\t105222\t基本上剛剛有提到大概中國大陸他們的人事雖然最終是要在人大確定但是呢他們原則上以黨領政所以在三中全會我們本來以為他會對未來的經濟政策跟他的人事的佈局三中全會會先開完那再交給人大來做處理這一次沒有說話確實是有一點值得我們後續要\n111264\t135975\t李道遠董事長怎麼詮釋這樣的事情?這時間有點短我已經為了執掌並沒有掌管這個人事的部分我想劉建超先生他是一個很資深的外交官在過去普遍大家認為他的姿態比較柔軟所以說外媒是採取一個比較樂觀的態度希望他不要再比較戰狼\n137409\t161295\t所以在這樣子的狀況落空的情況之下這兩位對於這件事情的政治意涵怎麼解讀中國大陸接下來在對外政策上面繼續強硬嗎還是有可能有改變的契機我想委員大概很清楚大概美中才是一個關鍵所在那從去年的舊金山會議之後呢那雙方就希望說能夠建立一個一定階層的這樣的一個工作聯繫匯報那加上\n164416\t181403\t今年是美國總統的大選中國應該是對於美國的整體的情勢會有比較審慎的處理我們看他最近的態度上面雙方都希望建立工作的對話層級能夠持續不斷以避免意外的出現\n182182\t199231\t李道遠董事長對於這樣子的一個布局這樣的一個走向你是樂觀還是悲觀?會不會順利?就是中美之間你覺得是會升溫還是會低檔?很簡單一點在台灣中華民國外交官是沒有悲觀的權利很好這個回答我願意同意但是呢我們也想到這個最可能壞的這個狀況\n201906\t228428\t因為局勢的變化為什麼要先從中美關係來切入就是因為大的局勢變化當然會影響我們兩岸關係那我要再問一下再追問一下但時間實在是有點限下一張投影片來這個美國國務卿布林肯本來這一樣是外媒在1月的時候開始去傳可能布林肯要來訪中但有可能就定在春季甚至大家會延伸可能有再次的所謂的派奇會但看起來喔這個兩位覺得成局的機會大嗎\n231074\t253793\t這我沒有辦法回答那我問李董事長你覺得我不能以董事長的身份回答這個問題但是這個布林肯這個李董事長您今天來這邊的身份是就是沒有問題的我要問的是評估啦不會我問的是評估你可以說私底下跟他回答\n257036\t277155\t你現在在立法院你不是個人的身份抱歉我提醒你董事長這個我不是要問我們的官方立場但是我要了解我們官方對於中美政治走向的評估我們今天提這樣的事情的用意是這樣所以您覺得評估是這個有機會中美之間稍微和緩一點所以這個局有可能成還是你覺得恐怕我們應該要審慎一點再觀察\n278456\t278676\t中美關係會影響未來兩岸關係\n296564\t322535\t我希望聽到像李大維這樣李大維董事長這樣子的回答因為兩岸關係目前我們所看到的各種跡象來看其實是山雨欲來從金門海域的局勢升高ECFA取消關稅優惠到我們的入客團客復入的轉彎感覺沒有樂觀的本錢那當然這個是民進黨政府的政治決策這是你們的執政的方向那我當然就要問一下接下來一些細節上的處理\n324016\t342411\t邱主委還記得我們在禮拜一的質詢的時候我請你我問了三個問題請你書面答覆嘛你這個到現在書面都還沒有回來是速度是有點慢的我要先講一下金門撞船案的後續啦兩岸是不是有這樣子的默契然後第二個是默契出現起義的時候有沒有處理的機制你今天就直接回答我好了\n343787\t372480\t現在看起來這個禁限制水域的狀況是被破壞掉的請問遇到這樣子的狀況的時候我們處置的方式是什麼其實那天我想我跟管主委大概有回應了那基本上就是我們對於所謂禁限制水域的執法我們有一套的SOP那這個SOP呢海巡署我不是問你執法嘛我那天就講了你當然不負責執法但是問題是你負責的是跟對岸的溝通嘛對不對你現在遇到這樣子局勢升溫的情況下我們是透過哪一條管道來處理\n373881\t393274\t兩個層面其實那天那個周美武署長他大概有提到其實過去兩岸在海上執法的部分大概過去恐怕有30次以上的共同打擊犯罪海上的救助那這個都是兩岸的海巡單位他們本來就有進行我想那天周美武署長應該有跟你報告你不要把問題推給海巡我的問題是你現在作為陸委會你現在跟他溝通面對局勢升溫你透過哪一條管道表達了什麼樣的立場\n399699\t410907\t你是走降溫呢還是乾脆我們就捍衛我們的立場有升溫的對啊一定是走降溫的方向但是你對於能夠順利降溫你有多少把握這我想一個銅板敲不響\n411955\t433627\t所以現在你想降溫對方不想降溫的意思喔我們在等待對方因為談判的過程中當然各有所堅持也各有一些進展但是呢最後有一些他們可能認為有政治敏感或者是其他敏感的問題所以你給這題的答案叫一個巴掌拍不響嘛對不對你希望降溫但是對結果沒有把握當然你有多大把握可以順利降溫然後這個是可以善良\n440971\t464302\t我們也都持續在關注對海峽的反應這一個題目第二個題目是ECFA這個我請李大偉董事長來回答畢竟當初簽的時候還是用海基海協的方式來簽這個1月的時候其實去年的時候他就說要宣布終止12項的優惠關稅並且講說會研究其他項次的取消這個當然對台灣的產業來講也許會造成一些的衝擊\n467430\t492781\t請問李道遠董事長你的評估今年有沒有可能就發生在今年除了這12項以外剩下的項次會被取消如果有可能被取消的話哪一些項次會優先被取消事實上ECFA是互利互惠的不是單方面的也就是說是你取消了以後也可能造成的後果對於台商甚至於對於外商的各種連鎖反應\n495162\t497323\t我認為陸方會非常的審慎處理這個案子不會憑著一兩個原因就做一個決定我還是審慎的樂觀\n511829\t531549\t審慎樂觀好 謝謝本席在這邊要提出這樣的關係的原因是因為如果今天不管是陸委會主委或者是海基會董事長當然就是面對兩岸溝通的第一線你們對於政治局勢的掌握跟政治局勢的判斷跟預判會影響我們中央政府其他部會處理這些事情的具體方式\n532210\t559320\t所以兩位的判斷其實是很重要的當你們樂觀你們認為會降溫的時候那大家政府相關的配套就會往這裡對焦但是萬一沒有做到的時候你可能會那個我寧願希望在這樣子的議事堂我們就聽到實話如果中午可能會升溫你乾脆早一點講有可能會升溫我們的關稅優惠有可能如果繼續被取消的話你就提早講至少讓我們政府的其他部會做提早的因應這是本期今天質詢的意義第三個是盤克復路啊這個我跟邱太三主委昨天也講了\n560280\t576461\t熱臉貼冷屁股這個就是一個很不好的例子嘛對不對因為你當然可以講說啊這個金門的問題是海巡要負責M法問題經濟部要負責團客附路的問題交通部負責可是關鍵是這些跟兩岸相關的跟兩岸的局勢有關兩岸局勢就你們負責嘛\n578723\t596232\t兩岸局勢你掌握不好轉彎或什麼的時候其實就影響了其他部位的執行績效然後再進一步影響其他產業我們今天在這個地方提質詢2024的兩岸關係本期個人是表達有一點悲觀剛剛我們談中美關係為什麼我先講劉建超為什麼我們提布林肯\n596832\t612882\t因為看起來本來世界所期待的中美的低檔讓局勢趨於穩定也是我們李大維董事長希望的這樣子的局勢從實際上的發展看起來好像沒有那麼順利嘛劉建超被認定鴿派的人並沒有接任外資部的一把手\n613882\t636260\t本來希望布林肯訪路現在看起來中國姿態擺得非常高看起來中國大陸會用強硬的單邊主義來處理全世界的局勢也會用相對強硬升溫的方式來處理兩岸的問題所以我希望兩位雖然大家心裡都希望審慎樂觀但是我要提醒未來的政府\n636900\t663882\t可能要做局勢升溫的全面準備所以今天在這個地方提這個質詢希望我當然希望我們的這個預警不要成真但是如果不幸成真當初大家的預觀希望樂觀希望降溫的狀況沒有發生的時候我不希望我們的政府再發生像團客這樣的事情是本來樂觀預期然後後來滿臉逗話的狀況絕對不能再發生我寧願你們提早做好準備這樣可以嗎\n665043\t665184\t兩位辛苦,謝謝\n","txt":"請陸委會主委邱太三還有海基會董事長李大維謝謝謝謝主席兩位早安\n這個先看一下照片吧這位是誰解答一下看起來這個李大輝董事長反應比較快喔主委應該也知道吧這個很重要好不好有一個講出單位一個講出名字那是不錯的對阿這個前一陣子喔這個媒體盛傳他很有可能會接掌這個這個中國大陸這邊的這個外交的一把手\n那也講說可能會在中共兩會的時候來做宣布那在外媒的詮釋上來講這可能是對中美關係有比較大的影響因為相對王毅來講他可能是一個相對溫和的在各大媒體的解讀上是這樣但是兩會好像已經稍微告一段落\n但這樣子的人事發布並沒有出現感覺中國大陸對外的人事布局沒有太大的變化我們一開始先開放一點我想請問兩位怎麼解讀這樣子的人事安排對於美中關係的變化是什麼一個人30秒好不好我們時間有限\n基本上剛剛有提到大概中國大陸他們的人事雖然最終是要在人大確定但是呢他們原則上以黨領政所以在三中全會我們本來以為他會對未來的經濟政策跟他的人事的佈局三中全會會先開完那再交給人大來做處理這一次沒有說話確實是有一點值得我們後續要\n李道遠董事長怎麼詮釋這樣的事情?這時間有點短我已經為了執掌並沒有掌管這個人事的部分我想劉建超先生他是一個很資深的外交官在過去普遍大家認為他的姿態比較柔軟所以說外媒是採取一個比較樂觀的態度希望他不要再比較戰狼\n所以在這樣子的狀況落空的情況之下這兩位對於這件事情的政治意涵怎麼解讀中國大陸接下來在對外政策上面繼續強硬嗎還是有可能有改變的契機我想委員大概很清楚大概美中才是一個關鍵所在那從去年的舊金山會議之後呢那雙方就希望說能夠建立一個一定階層的這樣的一個工作聯繫匯報那加上\n今年是美國總統的大選中國應該是對於美國的整體的情勢會有比較審慎的處理我們看他最近的態度上面雙方都希望建立工作的對話層級能夠持續不斷以避免意外的出現\n李道遠董事長對於這樣子的一個布局這樣的一個走向你是樂觀還是悲觀?會不會順利?就是中美之間你覺得是會升溫還是會低檔?很簡單一點在台灣中華民國外交官是沒有悲觀的權利很好這個回答我願意同意但是呢我們也想到這個最可能壞的這個狀況\n因為局勢的變化為什麼要先從中美關係來切入就是因為大的局勢變化當然會影響我們兩岸關係那我要再問一下再追問一下但時間實在是有點限下一張投影片來這個美國國務卿布林肯本來這一樣是外媒在1月的時候開始去傳可能布林肯要來訪中但有可能就定在春季甚至大家會延伸可能有再次的所謂的派奇會但看起來喔這個兩位覺得成局的機會大嗎\n這我沒有辦法回答那我問李董事長你覺得我不能以董事長的身份回答這個問題但是這個布林肯這個李董事長您今天來這邊的身份是就是沒有問題的我要問的是評估啦不會我問的是評估你可以說私底下跟他回答\n你現在在立法院你不是個人的身份抱歉我提醒你董事長這個我不是要問我們的官方立場但是我要了解我們官方對於中美政治走向的評估我們今天提這樣的事情的用意是這樣所以您覺得評估是這個有機會中美之間稍微和緩一點所以這個局有可能成還是你覺得恐怕我們應該要審慎一點再觀察\n中美關係會影響未來兩岸關係\n我希望聽到像李大維這樣李大維董事長這樣子的回答因為兩岸關係目前我們所看到的各種跡象來看其實是山雨欲來從金門海域的局勢升高ECFA取消關稅優惠到我們的入客團客復入的轉彎感覺沒有樂觀的本錢那當然這個是民進黨政府的政治決策這是你們的執政的方向那我當然就要問一下接下來一些細節上的處理\n邱主委還記得我們在禮拜一的質詢的時候我請你我問了三個問題請你書面答覆嘛你這個到現在書面都還沒有回來是速度是有點慢的我要先講一下金門撞船案的後續啦兩岸是不是有這樣子的默契然後第二個是默契出現起義的時候有沒有處理的機制你今天就直接回答我好了\n現在看起來這個禁限制水域的狀況是被破壞掉的請問遇到這樣子的狀況的時候我們處置的方式是什麼其實那天我想我跟管主委大概有回應了那基本上就是我們對於所謂禁限制水域的執法我們有一套的SOP那這個SOP呢海巡署我不是問你執法嘛我那天就講了你當然不負責執法但是問題是你負責的是跟對岸的溝通嘛對不對你現在遇到這樣子局勢升溫的情況下我們是透過哪一條管道來處理\n兩個層面其實那天那個周美武署長他大概有提到其實過去兩岸在海上執法的部分大概過去恐怕有30次以上的共同打擊犯罪海上的救助那這個都是兩岸的海巡單位他們本來就有進行我想那天周美武署長應該有跟你報告你不要把問題推給海巡我的問題是你現在作為陸委會你現在跟他溝通面對局勢升溫你透過哪一條管道表達了什麼樣的立場\n你是走降溫呢還是乾脆我們就捍衛我們的立場有升溫的對啊一定是走降溫的方向但是你對於能夠順利降溫你有多少把握這我想一個銅板敲不響\n所以現在你想降溫對方不想降溫的意思喔我們在等待對方因為談判的過程中當然各有所堅持也各有一些進展但是呢最後有一些他們可能認為有政治敏感或者是其他敏感的問題所以你給這題的答案叫一個巴掌拍不響嘛對不對你希望降溫但是對結果沒有把握當然你有多大把握可以順利降溫然後這個是可以善良\n我們也都持續在關注對海峽的反應這一個題目第二個題目是ECFA這個我請李大偉董事長來回答畢竟當初簽的時候還是用海基海協的方式來簽這個1月的時候其實去年的時候他就說要宣布終止12項的優惠關稅並且講說會研究其他項次的取消這個當然對台灣的產業來講也許會造成一些的衝擊\n請問李道遠董事長你的評估今年有沒有可能就發生在今年除了這12項以外剩下的項次會被取消如果有可能被取消的話哪一些項次會優先被取消事實上ECFA是互利互惠的不是單方面的也就是說是你取消了以後也可能造成的後果對於台商甚至於對於外商的各種連鎖反應\n我認為陸方會非常的審慎處理這個案子不會憑著一兩個原因就做一個決定我還是審慎的樂觀\n審慎樂觀好 謝謝本席在這邊要提出這樣的關係的原因是因為如果今天不管是陸委會主委或者是海基會董事長當然就是面對兩岸溝通的第一線你們對於政治局勢的掌握跟政治局勢的判斷跟預判會影響我們中央政府其他部會處理這些事情的具體方式\n所以兩位的判斷其實是很重要的當你們樂觀你們認為會降溫的時候那大家政府相關的配套就會往這裡對焦但是萬一沒有做到的時候你可能會那個我寧願希望在這樣子的議事堂我們就聽到實話如果中午可能會升溫你乾脆早一點講有可能會升溫我們的關稅優惠有可能如果繼續被取消的話你就提早講至少讓我們政府的其他部會做提早的因應這是本期今天質詢的意義第三個是盤克復路啊這個我跟邱太三主委昨天也講了\n熱臉貼冷屁股這個就是一個很不好的例子嘛對不對因為你當然可以講說啊這個金門的問題是海巡要負責M法問題經濟部要負責團客附路的問題交通部負責可是關鍵是這些跟兩岸相關的跟兩岸的局勢有關兩岸局勢就你們負責嘛\n兩岸局勢你掌握不好轉彎或什麼的時候其實就影響了其他部位的執行績效然後再進一步影響其他產業我們今天在這個地方提質詢2024的兩岸關係本期個人是表達有一點悲觀剛剛我們談中美關係為什麼我先講劉建超為什麼我們提布林肯\n因為看起來本來世界所期待的中美的低檔讓局勢趨於穩定也是我們李大維董事長希望的這樣子的局勢從實際上的發展看起來好像沒有那麼順利嘛劉建超被認定鴿派的人並沒有接任外資部的一把手\n本來希望布林肯訪路現在看起來中國姿態擺得非常高看起來中國大陸會用強硬的單邊主義來處理全世界的局勢也會用相對強硬升溫的方式來處理兩岸的問題所以我希望兩位雖然大家心裡都希望審慎樂觀但是我要提醒未來的政府\n可能要做局勢升溫的全面準備所以今天在這個地方提這個質詢希望我當然希望我們的這個預警不要成真但是如果不幸成真當初大家的預觀希望樂觀希望降溫的狀況沒有發生的時候我不希望我們的政府再發生像團客這樣的事情是本來樂觀預期然後後來滿臉逗話的狀況絕對不能再發生我寧願你們提早做好準備這樣可以嗎\n兩位辛苦,謝謝\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.649 --> 00:05.612\n請陸委會主委邱太三還有海基會董事長李大維謝謝謝謝主席兩位早安\n\n00:18.505 --> 00:45.610\n這個先看一下照片吧這位是誰解答一下看起來這個李大輝董事長反應比較快喔主委應該也知道吧這個很重要好不好有一個講出單位一個講出名字那是不錯的對阿這個前一陣子喔這個媒體盛傳他很有可能會接掌這個這個中國大陸這邊的這個外交的一把手\n\n00:46.450 --> 01:03.944\n那也講說可能會在中共兩會的時候來做宣布那在外媒的詮釋上來講這可能是對中美關係有比較大的影響因為相對王毅來講他可能是一個相對溫和的在各大媒體的解讀上是這樣但是兩會好像已經稍微告一段落\n\n01:04.604 --> 01:14.630\n但這樣子的人事發布並沒有出現感覺中國大陸對外的人事布局沒有太大的變化我們一開始先開放一點我想請問兩位怎麼解讀這樣子的人事安排對於美中關係的變化是什麼一個人30秒好不好我們時間有限\n\n01:24.295 --> 01:45.222\n基本上剛剛有提到大概中國大陸他們的人事雖然最終是要在人大確定但是呢他們原則上以黨領政所以在三中全會我們本來以為他會對未來的經濟政策跟他的人事的佈局三中全會會先開完那再交給人大來做處理這一次沒有說話確實是有一點值得我們後續要\n\n01:51.264 --> 02:15.975\n李道遠董事長怎麼詮釋這樣的事情?這時間有點短我已經為了執掌並沒有掌管這個人事的部分我想劉建超先生他是一個很資深的外交官在過去普遍大家認為他的姿態比較柔軟所以說外媒是採取一個比較樂觀的態度希望他不要再比較戰狼\n\n02:17.409 --> 02:41.295\n所以在這樣子的狀況落空的情況之下這兩位對於這件事情的政治意涵怎麼解讀中國大陸接下來在對外政策上面繼續強硬嗎還是有可能有改變的契機我想委員大概很清楚大概美中才是一個關鍵所在那從去年的舊金山會議之後呢那雙方就希望說能夠建立一個一定階層的這樣的一個工作聯繫匯報那加上\n\n02:44.416 --> 03:01.403\n今年是美國總統的大選中國應該是對於美國的整體的情勢會有比較審慎的處理我們看他最近的態度上面雙方都希望建立工作的對話層級能夠持續不斷以避免意外的出現\n\n03:02.182 --> 03:19.231\n李道遠董事長對於這樣子的一個布局這樣的一個走向你是樂觀還是悲觀?會不會順利?就是中美之間你覺得是會升溫還是會低檔?很簡單一點在台灣中華民國外交官是沒有悲觀的權利很好這個回答我願意同意但是呢我們也想到這個最可能壞的這個狀況\n\n03:21.906 --> 03:48.428\n因為局勢的變化為什麼要先從中美關係來切入就是因為大的局勢變化當然會影響我們兩岸關係那我要再問一下再追問一下但時間實在是有點限下一張投影片來這個美國國務卿布林肯本來這一樣是外媒在1月的時候開始去傳可能布林肯要來訪中但有可能就定在春季甚至大家會延伸可能有再次的所謂的派奇會但看起來喔這個兩位覺得成局的機會大嗎\n\n03:51.074 --> 04:13.793\n這我沒有辦法回答那我問李董事長你覺得我不能以董事長的身份回答這個問題但是這個布林肯這個李董事長您今天來這邊的身份是就是沒有問題的我要問的是評估啦不會我問的是評估你可以說私底下跟他回答\n\n04:17.036 --> 04:37.155\n你現在在立法院你不是個人的身份抱歉我提醒你董事長這個我不是要問我們的官方立場但是我要了解我們官方對於中美政治走向的評估我們今天提這樣的事情的用意是這樣所以您覺得評估是這個有機會中美之間稍微和緩一點所以這個局有可能成還是你覺得恐怕我們應該要審慎一點再觀察\n\n04:38.456 --> 04:38.676\n中美關係會影響未來兩岸關係\n\n04:56.564 --> 05:22.535\n我希望聽到像李大維這樣李大維董事長這樣子的回答因為兩岸關係目前我們所看到的各種跡象來看其實是山雨欲來從金門海域的局勢升高ECFA取消關稅優惠到我們的入客團客復入的轉彎感覺沒有樂觀的本錢那當然這個是民進黨政府的政治決策這是你們的執政的方向那我當然就要問一下接下來一些細節上的處理\n\n05:24.016 --> 05:42.411\n邱主委還記得我們在禮拜一的質詢的時候我請你我問了三個問題請你書面答覆嘛你這個到現在書面都還沒有回來是速度是有點慢的我要先講一下金門撞船案的後續啦兩岸是不是有這樣子的默契然後第二個是默契出現起義的時候有沒有處理的機制你今天就直接回答我好了\n\n05:43.787 --> 06:12.480\n現在看起來這個禁限制水域的狀況是被破壞掉的請問遇到這樣子的狀況的時候我們處置的方式是什麼其實那天我想我跟管主委大概有回應了那基本上就是我們對於所謂禁限制水域的執法我們有一套的SOP那這個SOP呢海巡署我不是問你執法嘛我那天就講了你當然不負責執法但是問題是你負責的是跟對岸的溝通嘛對不對你現在遇到這樣子局勢升溫的情況下我們是透過哪一條管道來處理\n\n06:13.881 --> 06:33.274\n兩個層面其實那天那個周美武署長他大概有提到其實過去兩岸在海上執法的部分大概過去恐怕有30次以上的共同打擊犯罪海上的救助那這個都是兩岸的海巡單位他們本來就有進行我想那天周美武署長應該有跟你報告你不要把問題推給海巡我的問題是你現在作為陸委會你現在跟他溝通面對局勢升溫你透過哪一條管道表達了什麼樣的立場\n\n06:39.699 --> 06:50.907\n你是走降溫呢還是乾脆我們就捍衛我們的立場有升溫的對啊一定是走降溫的方向但是你對於能夠順利降溫你有多少把握這我想一個銅板敲不響\n\n06:51.955 --> 07:13.627\n所以現在你想降溫對方不想降溫的意思喔我們在等待對方因為談判的過程中當然各有所堅持也各有一些進展但是呢最後有一些他們可能認為有政治敏感或者是其他敏感的問題所以你給這題的答案叫一個巴掌拍不響嘛對不對你希望降溫但是對結果沒有把握當然你有多大把握可以順利降溫然後這個是可以善良\n\n07:20.971 --> 07:44.302\n我們也都持續在關注對海峽的反應這一個題目第二個題目是ECFA這個我請李大偉董事長來回答畢竟當初簽的時候還是用海基海協的方式來簽這個1月的時候其實去年的時候他就說要宣布終止12項的優惠關稅並且講說會研究其他項次的取消這個當然對台灣的產業來講也許會造成一些的衝擊\n\n07:47.430 --> 08:12.781\n請問李道遠董事長你的評估今年有沒有可能就發生在今年除了這12項以外剩下的項次會被取消如果有可能被取消的話哪一些項次會優先被取消事實上ECFA是互利互惠的不是單方面的也就是說是你取消了以後也可能造成的後果對於台商甚至於對於外商的各種連鎖反應\n\n08:15.162 --> 08:17.323\n我認為陸方會非常的審慎處理這個案子不會憑著一兩個原因就做一個決定我還是審慎的樂觀\n\n08:31.829 --> 08:51.549\n審慎樂觀好謝謝本席在這邊要提出這樣的關係的原因是因為如果今天不管是陸委會主委或者是海基會董事長當然就是面對兩岸溝通的第一線你們對於政治局勢的掌握跟政治局勢的判斷跟預判會影響我們中央政府其他部會處理這些事情的具體方式\n\n08:52.210 --> 09:19.320\n所以兩位的判斷其實是很重要的當你們樂觀你們認為會降溫的時候那大家政府相關的配套就會往這裡對焦但是萬一沒有做到的時候你可能會那個我寧願希望在這樣子的議事堂我們就聽到實話如果中午可能會升溫你乾脆早一點講有可能會升溫我們的關稅優惠有可能如果繼續被取消的話你就提早講至少讓我們政府的其他部會做提早的因應這是本期今天質詢的意義第三個是盤克復路啊這個我跟邱太三主委昨天也講了\n\n09:20.280 --> 09:36.461\n熱臉貼冷屁股這個就是一個很不好的例子嘛對不對因為你當然可以講說啊這個金門的問題是海巡要負責M法問題經濟部要負責團客附路的問題交通部負責可是關鍵是這些跟兩岸相關的跟兩岸的局勢有關兩岸局勢就你們負責嘛\n\n09:38.723 --> 09:56.232\n兩岸局勢你掌握不好轉彎或什麼的時候其實就影響了其他部位的執行績效然後再進一步影響其他產業我們今天在這個地方提質詢2024的兩岸關係本期個人是表達有一點悲觀剛剛我們談中美關係為什麼我先講劉建超為什麼我們提布林肯\n\n09:56.832 --> 10:12.882\n因為看起來本來世界所期待的中美的低檔讓局勢趨於穩定也是我們李大維董事長希望的這樣子的局勢從實際上的發展看起來好像沒有那麼順利嘛劉建超被認定鴿派的人並沒有接任外資部的一把手\n\n10:13.882 --> 10:36.260\n本來希望布林肯訪路現在看起來中國姿態擺得非常高看起來中國大陸會用強硬的單邊主義來處理全世界的局勢也會用相對強硬升溫的方式來處理兩岸的問題所以我希望兩位雖然大家心裡都希望審慎樂觀但是我要提醒未來的政府\n\n10:36.900 --> 11:03.882\n可能要做局勢升溫的全面準備所以今天在這個地方提這個質詢希望我當然希望我們的這個預警不要成真但是如果不幸成真當初大家的預觀希望樂觀希望降溫的狀況沒有發生的時候我不希望我們的政府再發生像團客這樣的事情是本來樂觀預期然後後來滿臉逗話的狀況絕對不能再發生我寧願你們提早做好準備這樣可以嗎\n\n11:05.043 --> 11:05.184\n兩位辛苦,謝謝\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.649,"end":5.612,"text":"請陸委會主委邱太三還有海基會董事長李大維謝謝謝謝主席兩位早安"},{"start":18.505,"end":45.61,"text":"這個先看一下照片吧這位是誰解答一下看起來這個李大輝董事長反應比較快喔主委應該也知道吧這個很重要好不好有一個講出單位一個講出名字那是不錯的對阿這個前一陣子喔這個媒體盛傳他很有可能會接掌這個這個中國大陸這邊的這個外交的一把手"},{"start":46.45,"end":63.944,"text":"那也講說可能會在中共兩會的時候來做宣布那在外媒的詮釋上來講這可能是對中美關係有比較大的影響因為相對王毅來講他可能是一個相對溫和的在各大媒體的解讀上是這樣但是兩會好像已經稍微告一段落"},{"start":64.604,"end":74.63,"text":"但這樣子的人事發布並沒有出現感覺中國大陸對外的人事布局沒有太大的變化我們一開始先開放一點我想請問兩位怎麼解讀這樣子的人事安排對於美中關係的變化是什麼一個人30秒好不好我們時間有限"},{"start":84.295,"end":105.222,"text":"基本上剛剛有提到大概中國大陸他們的人事雖然最終是要在人大確定但是呢他們原則上以黨領政所以在三中全會我們本來以為他會對未來的經濟政策跟他的人事的佈局三中全會會先開完那再交給人大來做處理這一次沒有說話確實是有一點值得我們後續要"},{"start":111.264,"end":135.975,"text":"李道遠董事長怎麼詮釋這樣的事情?這時間有點短我已經為了執掌並沒有掌管這個人事的部分我想劉建超先生他是一個很資深的外交官在過去普遍大家認為他的姿態比較柔軟所以說外媒是採取一個比較樂觀的態度希望他不要再比較戰狼"},{"start":137.409,"end":161.295,"text":"所以在這樣子的狀況落空的情況之下這兩位對於這件事情的政治意涵怎麼解讀中國大陸接下來在對外政策上面繼續強硬嗎還是有可能有改變的契機我想委員大概很清楚大概美中才是一個關鍵所在那從去年的舊金山會議之後呢那雙方就希望說能夠建立一個一定階層的這樣的一個工作聯繫匯報那加上"},{"start":164.416,"end":181.403,"text":"今年是美國總統的大選中國應該是對於美國的整體的情勢會有比較審慎的處理我們看他最近的態度上面雙方都希望建立工作的對話層級能夠持續不斷以避免意外的出現"},{"start":182.182,"end":199.231,"text":"李道遠董事長對於這樣子的一個布局這樣的一個走向你是樂觀還是悲觀?會不會順利?就是中美之間你覺得是會升溫還是會低檔?很簡單一點在台灣中華民國外交官是沒有悲觀的權利很好這個回答我願意同意但是呢我們也想到這個最可能壞的這個狀況"},{"start":201.906,"end":228.428,"text":"因為局勢的變化為什麼要先從中美關係來切入就是因為大的局勢變化當然會影響我們兩岸關係那我要再問一下再追問一下但時間實在是有點限下一張投影片來這個美國國務卿布林肯本來這一樣是外媒在1月的時候開始去傳可能布林肯要來訪中但有可能就定在春季甚至大家會延伸可能有再次的所謂的派奇會但看起來喔這個兩位覺得成局的機會大嗎"},{"start":231.074,"end":253.793,"text":"這我沒有辦法回答那我問李董事長你覺得我不能以董事長的身份回答這個問題但是這個布林肯這個李董事長您今天來這邊的身份是就是沒有問題的我要問的是評估啦不會我問的是評估你可以說私底下跟他回答"},{"start":257.036,"end":277.155,"text":"你現在在立法院你不是個人的身份抱歉我提醒你董事長這個我不是要問我們的官方立場但是我要了解我們官方對於中美政治走向的評估我們今天提這樣的事情的用意是這樣所以您覺得評估是這個有機會中美之間稍微和緩一點所以這個局有可能成還是你覺得恐怕我們應該要審慎一點再觀察"},{"start":278.456,"end":278.676,"text":"中美關係會影響未來兩岸關係"},{"start":296.564,"end":322.535,"text":"我希望聽到像李大維這樣李大維董事長這樣子的回答因為兩岸關係目前我們所看到的各種跡象來看其實是山雨欲來從金門海域的局勢升高ECFA取消關稅優惠到我們的入客團客復入的轉彎感覺沒有樂觀的本錢那當然這個是民進黨政府的政治決策這是你們的執政的方向那我當然就要問一下接下來一些細節上的處理"},{"start":324.016,"end":342.411,"text":"邱主委還記得我們在禮拜一的質詢的時候我請你我問了三個問題請你書面答覆嘛你這個到現在書面都還沒有回來是速度是有點慢的我要先講一下金門撞船案的後續啦兩岸是不是有這樣子的默契然後第二個是默契出現起義的時候有沒有處理的機制你今天就直接回答我好了"},{"start":343.787,"end":372.48,"text":"現在看起來這個禁限制水域的狀況是被破壞掉的請問遇到這樣子的狀況的時候我們處置的方式是什麼其實那天我想我跟管主委大概有回應了那基本上就是我們對於所謂禁限制水域的執法我們有一套的SOP那這個SOP呢海巡署我不是問你執法嘛我那天就講了你當然不負責執法但是問題是你負責的是跟對岸的溝通嘛對不對你現在遇到這樣子局勢升溫的情況下我們是透過哪一條管道來處理"},{"start":373.881,"end":393.274,"text":"兩個層面其實那天那個周美武署長他大概有提到其實過去兩岸在海上執法的部分大概過去恐怕有30次以上的共同打擊犯罪海上的救助那這個都是兩岸的海巡單位他們本來就有進行我想那天周美武署長應該有跟你報告你不要把問題推給海巡我的問題是你現在作為陸委會你現在跟他溝通面對局勢升溫你透過哪一條管道表達了什麼樣的立場"},{"start":399.699,"end":410.907,"text":"你是走降溫呢還是乾脆我們就捍衛我們的立場有升溫的對啊一定是走降溫的方向但是你對於能夠順利降溫你有多少把握這我想一個銅板敲不響"},{"start":411.955,"end":433.627,"text":"所以現在你想降溫對方不想降溫的意思喔我們在等待對方因為談判的過程中當然各有所堅持也各有一些進展但是呢最後有一些他們可能認為有政治敏感或者是其他敏感的問題所以你給這題的答案叫一個巴掌拍不響嘛對不對你希望降溫但是對結果沒有把握當然你有多大把握可以順利降溫然後這個是可以善良"},{"start":440.971,"end":464.302,"text":"我們也都持續在關注對海峽的反應這一個題目第二個題目是ECFA這個我請李大偉董事長來回答畢竟當初簽的時候還是用海基海協的方式來簽這個1月的時候其實去年的時候他就說要宣布終止12項的優惠關稅並且講說會研究其他項次的取消這個當然對台灣的產業來講也許會造成一些的衝擊"},{"start":467.43,"end":492.781,"text":"請問李道遠董事長你的評估今年有沒有可能就發生在今年除了這12項以外剩下的項次會被取消如果有可能被取消的話哪一些項次會優先被取消事實上ECFA是互利互惠的不是單方面的也就是說是你取消了以後也可能造成的後果對於台商甚至於對於外商的各種連鎖反應"},{"start":495.162,"end":497.323,"text":"我認為陸方會非常的審慎處理這個案子不會憑著一兩個原因就做一個決定我還是審慎的樂觀"},{"start":511.829,"end":531.549,"text":"審慎樂觀好 謝謝本席在這邊要提出這樣的關係的原因是因為如果今天不管是陸委會主委或者是海基會董事長當然就是面對兩岸溝通的第一線你們對於政治局勢的掌握跟政治局勢的判斷跟預判會影響我們中央政府其他部會處理這些事情的具體方式"},{"start":532.21,"end":559.32,"text":"所以兩位的判斷其實是很重要的當你們樂觀你們認為會降溫的時候那大家政府相關的配套就會往這裡對焦但是萬一沒有做到的時候你可能會那個我寧願希望在這樣子的議事堂我們就聽到實話如果中午可能會升溫你乾脆早一點講有可能會升溫我們的關稅優惠有可能如果繼續被取消的話你就提早講至少讓我們政府的其他部會做提早的因應這是本期今天質詢的意義第三個是盤克復路啊這個我跟邱太三主委昨天也講了"},{"start":560.28,"end":576.461,"text":"熱臉貼冷屁股這個就是一個很不好的例子嘛對不對因為你當然可以講說啊這個金門的問題是海巡要負責M法問題經濟部要負責團客附路的問題交通部負責可是關鍵是這些跟兩岸相關的跟兩岸的局勢有關兩岸局勢就你們負責嘛"},{"start":578.723,"end":596.232,"text":"兩岸局勢你掌握不好轉彎或什麼的時候其實就影響了其他部位的執行績效然後再進一步影響其他產業我們今天在這個地方提質詢2024的兩岸關係本期個人是表達有一點悲觀剛剛我們談中美關係為什麼我先講劉建超為什麼我們提布林肯"},{"start":596.832,"end":612.882,"text":"因為看起來本來世界所期待的中美的低檔讓局勢趨於穩定也是我們李大維董事長希望的這樣子的局勢從實際上的發展看起來好像沒有那麼順利嘛劉建超被認定鴿派的人並沒有接任外資部的一把手"},{"start":613.882,"end":636.26,"text":"本來希望布林肯訪路現在看起來中國姿態擺得非常高看起來中國大陸會用強硬的單邊主義來處理全世界的局勢也會用相對強硬升溫的方式來處理兩岸的問題所以我希望兩位雖然大家心裡都希望審慎樂觀但是我要提醒未來的政府"},{"start":636.9,"end":663.882,"text":"可能要做局勢升溫的全面準備所以今天在這個地方提這個質詢希望我當然希望我們的這個預警不要成真但是如果不幸成真當初大家的預觀希望樂觀希望降溫的狀況沒有發生的時候我不希望我們的政府再發生像團客這樣的事情是本來樂觀預期然後後來滿臉逗話的狀況絕對不能再發生我寧願你們提早做好準備這樣可以嗎"},{"start":665.043,"end":665.184,"text":"兩位辛苦,謝謝"}]}}}}