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314.09, \"text\": \"那我們透過各種的情監偵的手段來瞭解到中共目前軍事活動的最新的狀況同時也會跟國際的友盟針對中共現階段到底有沒有新興的意圖還有相關的活動那來做相關的情報的交流目前我們沒有看到台海戰事一觸即發的相關的情資\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 293.584, \"end\": 293.764, \"score\": 0.99}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 293.764, \"end\": 293.964, \"score\": 0.711}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"透\", \"start\": 293.964, \"end\": 294.324, \"score\": 0.873}, {\"word\": \"過\"}, {\"word\": \"各\", \"start\": 294.324, \"end\": 294.664, \"score\": 0.933}, {\"word\": \"種\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 294.664, \"end\": 294.844, \"score\": 0.895}, {\"word\": \"情\", \"start\": 294.844, \"end\": 295.425, \"score\": 0.887}, {\"word\": \"監\"}, {\"word\": \"偵\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 295.425, \"end\": 295.565, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"手\", \"start\": 295.565, \"end\": 295.765, \"score\": 0.914}, {\"word\": \"段\", \"start\": 295.765, \"end\": 296.085, \"score\": 0.873}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"瞭\", \"start\": 296.085, \"end\": 296.285, \"score\": 0.905}, 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\"text\": \"拜登強調多邊主義,但也力挺烏克蘭。\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"拜\", \"start\": 537.295, \"end\": 537.315, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"登\", \"start\": 537.315, \"end\": 537.495, \"score\": 0.734}, {\"word\": \"強\"}, {\"word\": \"調\"}, {\"word\": \"多\", \"start\": 537.495, \"end\": 537.515, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"邊\"}, {\"word\": \"主\", \"start\": 537.515, \"end\": 537.675, \"score\": 0.641}, {\"word\": \"義\"}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"但\", \"start\": 537.675, \"end\": 537.695, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 537.695, \"end\": 537.895, \"score\": 0.715}, {\"word\": \"力\", \"start\": 537.895, \"end\": 537.916, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"挺\", \"start\": 537.916, \"end\": 538.016, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"烏\"}, {\"word\": \"克\", \"start\": 538.016, \"end\": 538.036, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"蘭\"}, {\"word\": \"。\"}]}, {\"start\": 554.689, \"end\": 557.911, \"text\": \"川普主張單邊主義,還是優先關注國內的議題?之前烏俄戰爭發生的時候,其實國人也是很關注美國對烏克蘭的態度。局長,我們這邊會不會擔心說,如果川普上任的話,\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"川\", \"start\": 554.689, \"end\": 554.929, \"score\": 0.782}, {\"word\": \"普\", \"start\": 554.929, \"end\": 555.39, \"score\": 0.703}, {\"word\": \"主\", \"start\": 555.39, \"end\": 555.41, \"score\": 0.003}, {\"word\": \"張\"}, {\"word\": \"單\"}, {\"word\": \"邊\"}, {\"word\": \"主\", \"start\": 555.41, \"end\": 555.55, \"score\": 0.914}, {\"word\": \"義\"}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"還\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 555.55, \"end\": 555.57, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"優\"}, {\"word\": \"先\", \"start\": 555.57, \"end\": 555.75, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"關\"}, {\"word\": \"注\", \"start\": 555.75, \"end\": 555.77, \"score\": 0.001}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"內\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 555.77, \"end\": 555.93, \"score\": 0.769}, {\"word\": \"議\"}, {\"word\": \"題\"}, {\"word\": \"?\"}, {\"word\": \"之\", \"start\": 555.93, \"end\": 556.17, \"score\": 0.851}, {\"word\": \"前\", \"start\": 556.17, \"end\": 556.27, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"烏\"}, {\"word\": \"俄\", \"start\": 556.27, \"end\": 556.29, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"戰\"}, {\"word\": \"爭\"}, {\"word\": \"發\"}, {\"word\": \"生\", \"start\": 556.29, \"end\": 556.33, \"score\": 0.036}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 556.33, \"end\": 556.35, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"時\"}, {\"word\": \"候\", \"start\": 556.35, \"end\": 556.37, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"其\", \"start\": 556.37, \"end\": 556.47, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"實\"}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"人\", \"start\": 556.47, \"end\": 556.49, \"score\": 0.002}, {\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 556.49, \"end\": 556.51, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 556.51, \"end\": 556.53, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"很\", \"start\": 556.53, \"end\": 556.57, \"score\": 0.491}, {\"word\": \"關\"}, {\"word\": \"注\", \"start\": 556.57, \"end\": 556.59, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"美\", \"start\": 556.59, \"end\": 556.751, \"score\": 0.718}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"烏\"}, {\"word\": \"克\", \"start\": 556.751, \"end\": 556.891, \"score\": 0.836}, {\"word\": \"蘭\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 556.891, \"end\": 557.071, \"score\": 0.822}, {\"word\": \"態\"}, {\"word\": \"度\", \"start\": 557.071, \"end\": 557.191, \"score\": 0.81}, {\"word\": \"。\"}, {\"word\": \"局\", \"start\": 557.191, \"end\": 557.311, \"score\": 0.703}, {\"word\": \"長\"}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 557.311, \"end\": 557.411, \"score\": 0.643}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"邊\"}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"不\", \"start\": 557.411, \"end\": 557.471, \"score\": 0.625}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"擔\"}, {\"word\": \"心\", \"start\": 557.471, \"end\": 557.571, \"score\": 0.613}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"如\", \"start\": 557.571, \"end\": 557.611, \"score\": 0.462}, {\"word\": \"果\", \"start\": 557.611, \"end\": 557.631, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"川\", \"start\": 557.631, \"end\": 557.731, \"score\": 0.8}, 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--> 00:00:35,385\n中國國務院總理李強3月5日在全國人民大會發表的政府工作報告提到\n\n4\n00:01:03,403 --> 00:01:25,511\n推進祖國統一少了和平這兩個字其實也引起了很多的揣測覺得非常的不尋常那當然後來習近平在六日的時候在兩會的演說有再次提到和平統一那昨天政協主席在閉幕式也提到和平統一這四個字所以局長你剛剛在報告的時候有提到\n\n5\n00:01:30,353 --> 00:01:44,779\n融合發展依然還是中共對台的一個工作的這個重點那換句話說局長你也認為中共暫時沒有武力犯台的這個動作是不是\n\n6\n00:01:45,479 --> 00:02:06,337\n我們最近在觀察兩會期間包括兩會之前的中共的對台工作會議以及兩會期間包括習近平接見各個專業團體的代表王滬寧的談話以及李強的工作報告我們可以發現到他基本的政策主軸還是圍繞在和平、統一所延續出來的反獨、觸統、觸容跟反對外力介入跟干涉這是他的主調\n\n7\n00:02:06,957 --> 00:02:07,237\n所以他以後會加重這個?\n\n8\n00:02:34,397 --> 00:02:58,289\n但他就是要讓台灣社會有一些對於武統的想像、空間或是恐懼來達到他一個武力恫嚇的目的所以基本上還是合同的路線只是有一個脅迫性在透過複合式威脅來達到脅迫性的一個合同路線的一個推展那在另外一方面他們也提出所謂的兩岸促統促容的相關的方案這包括福建有提出了21條的對台的措施在\n\n9\n00:02:59,269 --> 00:03:15,721\n全國兩會之前的福建的兩會他們過去的對台工作要點大概排在第6位第6順位但今年提升到第3順位也就是說在中央的大交流跟促統促融的工作指導之下福建也不斷地希望能夠推動兩岸的促統促融\n\n10\n00:03:16,061 --> 00:03:21,466\n中共對台政策主要還是所謂的軟硬的兩手壓拉的兩手策略來對我們施壓那我們預判在520的前後這樣子的一個壓拉的兩手策略會持續的來進行對台灣來施壓那也來影響新政府未來兩岸政策的一個走向\n\n11\n00:03:42,145 --> 00:03:59,765\n所以就算是給壓拉的這個方式基本上這個武力犯台的機率最近如果是近期來講是比較不可能發生的是嗎因為我有看到有一份報導就是中共的這個前情報員姚誠他有提到中國火箭軍的這個洩密案\n\n12\n00:04:01,787 --> 00:04:26,700\n他就提到說這個泄密案會影響中共攻台的這個計畫．會把這個很有可能之前他們所設定的這個攻台的這個時間表的往後延．所以對於這個說法．所以局長您認為呢．會不會也是因為這個火箭軍事件．所以造成對中國目前來講．是沒有能力來渡海犯台．這是姚誠的說法局長您覺得呢\n\n13\n00:04:27,100 --> 00:04:53,124\n我想台海安全情勢的因素有非常非常的多而這些綜合因素交雜之下才會產生各種不同的劇本的情境那我們當然要針對不同因素所產生的不同劇本情境來做好相關的預應的方案跟措施就國安局的立場來講我們跟國防部還有相關的國安單位對於中共的軍事動態我們都有嚴密的掌控那也有相關的預應的措施\n\n14\n00:04:53,584 --> 00:05:14,090\n那我們透過各種的情監偵的手段來瞭解到中共目前軍事活動的最新的狀況同時也會跟國際的友盟針對中共現階段到底有沒有新興的意圖還有相關的活動那來做相關的情報的交流目前我們沒有看到台海戰事一觸即發的相關的情資\n\n15\n00:05:14,650 --> 00:05:15,951\n中共在第19屆六中全會有通過所謂的第三個歷史\n\n16\n00:05:43,853 --> 00:06:05,924\n歷史決議就是在毛澤東時期1945年的時候通過的那第二個歷史決議是在1981年鄧小平時代通過的那當然第三個歷史決議就是去2021年習近平所通過的所謂的第三個歷史決議我在想這個動作其實也是奠定\n\n17\n00:06:07,664 --> 00:06:29,191\n歷史定位的其中一個因為在所有的國家的領導人裡面也就是毛澤東、鄧小平跟習近平有提出了所謂的這個歷史決議那當然他的歷史決議跟鄧小平他的這個所覺得的內容其實有很大的這個分歧比如說鄧小平他那時候就覺得說不應該應該是要訂定一個比如說這個\n\n18\n00:06:33,972 --> 00:06:34,032\n羅美玲議員\n\n19\n00:06:54,261 --> 00:06:55,362\n這部分的話局長是不是也可以讓有一個讓國人比較安心的這個說法\n\n20\n00:07:17,637 --> 00:07:39,580\n對我想習近平他畢竟是一個建立了一個強人政治的一個領導的風格那對於強人政治來講對於他自己的歷史定位他都會有相關的一個論述我們都必須要嚴密來注意他除了論述以外後續的實際的一個行動那比較要特別注意到的是2027年習近平要達成他們中國解放軍建軍百年的總目標\n\n21\n00:07:40,220 --> 00:08:02,274\n所以也造成這幾年他們在軍事上投注的資源非常的龐大事實上討論這個問題可能不能單單只是放在兩岸或台海的框架來講因為中國有他本身的大戰略希望能夠變成是一個區域甚至是全球性的強權他有他的各個階段不同的目標也正因為如此造成台海局勢以外不管是在東海、在南海或是在西太平洋\n\n22\n00:08:02,654 --> 00:08:27,643\n各個國家都看到了中國武力的擴張那這也是我剛剛在口頭的書面報告有提到的國際的友盟對於這一塊的發展的動態非常的關注那也注意到台灣就站在中共武力擴張的第一線那願意跟台灣在各方面發展安全或情報上的交流所以我們在面對中共武力擴張的同時雖然承受不少的壓力但同時也開放了不少的機會可以加強跟國際友盟的合作\n\n23\n00:08:28,436 --> 00:08:55,714\n是OK好謝謝局長那再來呢下一題就是有關於這個川普跟拜登那毫無懸念可能在今年的這個美國的大選應該就是拜登跟川普的這個對壘那川普跟拜登這兩個人其實對於在國在國際或國內他們的政策其實是有很大的不一樣那當然拜登呢最近的國情咨文裡面有提到就是說堅決維護\n\n24\n00:08:57,295 --> 00:08:58,036\n拜登強調多邊主義,但也力挺烏克蘭。\n\n25\n00:09:14,689 --> 00:09:17,911\n川普主張單邊主義,還是優先關注國內的議題?之前烏俄戰爭發生的時候,其實國人也是很關注美國對烏克蘭的態度。局長,我們這邊會不會擔心說,如果川普上任的話,\n\n26\n00:09:36,724 --> 00:09:52,412\n他可能對烏克蘭的這個軍援的態度就改變了那進而影響的會不會說如果以後如果說台海發生戰爭的時候然後川普這邊對台灣的援助是不是會像烏克蘭這樣子的消極可能會發生這種事情嗎\n\n27\n00:09:53,291 --> 00:10:20,677\n對我想就中華民國政府官員的立場來講我實在不便去對於美國的內政或選舉做太多的評論但是站在情報的角度我們可以針對各種的公情還有分析彙整一下來跟委員做個報告跟說明那就兩個總統的基本的外交路線確實有看到剛剛委員所指出來的一個差異性但是他們也有他們的趨同性特別是在社中的議題上對於中國的戰略的挑戰他們都高度的關注那另外也都對於台海的\n\n28\n00:10:21,357 --> 00:10:21,477\n對於臺灣的軍售案\n\n29\n00:10:41,334 --> 00:10:57,904\n不過這部分美國國會還是有一些辯論包括要不要再增加相關的增援的法案有一些辯論所以我想後續還是要看一下美國行政部門跟國會對於相關問題的討論的一個狀況才能夠下最後的一個定論他們有沒有一個比較新的政策路線出來\n\n30\n00:10:59,019 --> 00:11:08,493\nOK,所以局長的意思是說就算是川普他勝出其實我們也不需要多大的擔心畢竟他曾經也擔任過美國的總統那在那幾年我們也看出說其實他對台灣\n\n31\n00:11:14,361 --> 00:11:14,481\n謝謝局長以上謝謝\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n891\t1051\t羅美玲議員\n12268\t26218\t局長早很謝謝局長今天早上對今天的主題做了非常詳細的分析其實現在只要有什麼風吹草動其實國人都是憂心忡忡的常常會擔心說台海什麼時候會發生戰爭這是在我們基層常常聽到的一個問題\n33163\t35385\t中國國務院總理李強3月5日在全國人民大會發表的政府工作報告提到\n63403\t85511\t推進祖國統一少了和平這兩個字其實也引起了很多的揣測覺得非常的不尋常那當然後來習近平在六日的時候在兩會的演說有再次提到和平統一那昨天政協主席在閉幕式也提到和平統一這四個字所以局長你剛剛在報告的時候有提到\n90353\t104779\t融合發展依然還是中共對台的一個工作的這個重點那換句話說 局長你也認為中共暫時沒有武力犯台的這個動作是不是\n105479\t126337\t我們最近在觀察兩會期間包括兩會之前的中共的對台工作會議以及兩會期間包括習近平接見各個專業團體的代表王滬寧的談話以及李強的工作報告我們可以發現到他基本的政策主軸還是圍繞在和平、統一所延續出來的反獨、觸統、觸容跟反對外力介入跟干涉這是他的主調\n126957\t127237\t所以他以後會加重這個?\n154397\t178289\t但他就是要讓台灣社會有一些對於武統的想像、空間或是恐懼來達到他一個武力恫嚇的目的所以基本上還是合同的路線只是有一個脅迫性在透過複合式威脅來達到脅迫性的一個合同路線的一個推展那在另外一方面他們也提出所謂的兩岸促統促容的相關的方案這包括福建有提出了21條的對台的措施在\n179269\t195721\t全國兩會之前的福建的兩會他們過去的對台工作要點大概排在第6位第6順位但今年提升到第3順位也就是說在中央的大交流跟促統促融的工作指導之下福建也不斷地希望能夠推動兩岸的促統促融\n196061\t201466\t中共對台政策主要還是所謂的軟硬的兩手壓拉的兩手策略來對我們施壓那我們預判在520的前後這樣子的一個壓拉的兩手策略會持續的來進行對台灣來施壓那也來影響新政府未來兩岸政策的一個走向\n222145\t239765\t所以就算是給壓拉的這個方式基本上這個武力犯台的機率最近如果是近期來講是比較不可能發生的是嗎因為我有看到有一份報導就是中共的這個前情報員姚誠他有提到中國火箭軍的這個洩密案\n241787\t266700\t他就提到說這個泄密案會影響中共攻台的這個計畫．會把這個很有可能之前他們所設定的這個攻台的這個時間表的往後延．所以對於這個說法．所以局長您認為呢．會不會也是因為這個火箭軍事件．所以造成對中國目前來講．是沒有能力來渡海犯台．這是姚誠的說法 局長您覺得呢\n267100\t293124\t我想台海安全情勢的因素有非常非常的多而這些綜合因素交雜之下才會產生各種不同的劇本的情境那我們當然要針對不同因素所產生的不同劇本情境來做好相關的預應的方案跟措施就國安局的立場來講我們跟國防部還有相關的國安單位對於中共的軍事動態我們都有嚴密的掌控那也有相關的預應的措施\n293584\t314090\t那我們透過各種的情監偵的手段來瞭解到中共目前軍事活動的最新的狀況同時也會跟國際的友盟針對中共現階段到底有沒有新興的意圖還有相關的活動那來做相關的情報的交流目前我們沒有看到台海戰事一觸即發的相關的情資\n314650\t315951\t中共在第19屆六中全會有通過所謂的第三個歷史\n343853\t365924\t歷史決議就是在毛澤東時期1945年的時候通過的那第二個歷史決議是在1981年鄧小平時代通過的那當然第三個歷史決議就是去2021年習近平所通過的所謂的第三個歷史決議我在想這個動作其實也是奠定\n367664\t389191\t歷史定位的其中一個因為在所有的國家的領導人裡面也就是毛澤東、鄧小平跟習近平有提出了所謂的這個歷史決議那當然他的歷史決議跟鄧小平他的這個所覺得的內容其實有很大的這個分歧比如說鄧小平他那時候就覺得說不應該應該是要訂定一個比如說這個\n393972\t394032\t羅美玲議員\n414261\t415362\t這部分的話 局長是不是也可以讓有一個讓國人比較安心的這個說法\n437637\t459580\t對我想習近平他畢竟是一個建立了一個強人政治的一個領導的風格那對於強人政治來講對於他自己的歷史定位他都會有相關的一個論述我們都必須要嚴密來注意他除了論述以外後續的實際的一個行動那比較要特別注意到的是2027年習近平要達成他們中國解放軍建軍百年的總目標\n460220\t482274\t所以也造成這幾年他們在軍事上投注的資源非常的龐大事實上討論這個問題可能不能單單只是放在兩岸或台海的框架來講因為中國有他本身的大戰略希望能夠變成是一個區域甚至是全球性的強權他有他的各個階段不同的目標也正因為如此造成台海局勢以外不管是在東海、在南海或是在西太平洋\n482654\t507643\t各個國家都看到了中國武力的擴張那這也是我剛剛在口頭的書面報告有提到的國際的友盟對於這一塊的發展的動態非常的關注那也注意到台灣就站在中共武力擴張的第一線那願意跟台灣在各方面發展安全或情報上的交流所以我們在面對中共武力擴張的同時雖然承受不少的壓力但同時也開放了不少的機會可以加強跟國際友盟的合作\n508436\t535714\t是OK好謝謝局長那再來呢下一題就是有關於這個川普跟拜登那毫無懸念可能在今年的這個美國的大選應該就是拜登跟川普的這個對壘那川普跟拜登這兩個人其實對於在國在國際或國內他們的政策其實是有很大的不一樣那當然拜登呢最近的國情咨文裡面有提到就是說堅決維護\n537295\t538036\t拜登強調多邊主義,但也力挺烏克蘭。\n554689\t557911\t川普主張單邊主義,還是優先關注國內的議題?之前烏俄戰爭發生的時候,其實國人也是很關注美國對烏克蘭的態度。局長,我們這邊會不會擔心說,如果川普上任的話,\n576724\t592412\t他可能對烏克蘭的這個軍援的態度就改變了那進而影響的會不會說如果以後如果說台海發生戰爭的時候然後川普這邊對台灣的援助是不是會像烏克蘭這樣子的消極可能會發生這種事情嗎\n593291\t620677\t對我想就中華民國政府官員的立場來講我實在不便去對於美國的內政或選舉做太多的評論但是站在情報的角度我們可以針對各種的公情還有分析彙整一下來跟委員做個報告跟說明那就兩個總統的基本的外交路線確實有看到剛剛委員所指出來的一個差異性但是他們也有他們的趨同性特別是在社中的議題上對於中國的戰略的挑戰他們都高度的關注那另外也都對於台海的\n621357\t621477\t對於臺灣的軍售案\n641334\t657904\t不過這部分美國國會還是有一些辯論包括要不要再增加相關的增援的法案有一些辯論所以我想後續還是要看一下美國行政部門跟國會對於相關問題的討論的一個狀況才能夠下最後的一個定論他們有沒有一個比較新的政策路線出來\n659019\t668493\tOK,所以局長的意思是說就算是川普他勝出其實我們也不需要多大的擔心畢竟他曾經也擔任過美國的總統那在那幾年我們也看出說其實他對台灣\n674361\t674481\t謝謝局長 以上謝謝\n","txt":"羅美玲議員\n局長早很謝謝局長今天早上對今天的主題做了非常詳細的分析其實現在只要有什麼風吹草動其實國人都是憂心忡忡的常常會擔心說台海什麼時候會發生戰爭這是在我們基層常常聽到的一個問題\n中國國務院總理李強3月5日在全國人民大會發表的政府工作報告提到\n推進祖國統一少了和平這兩個字其實也引起了很多的揣測覺得非常的不尋常那當然後來習近平在六日的時候在兩會的演說有再次提到和平統一那昨天政協主席在閉幕式也提到和平統一這四個字所以局長你剛剛在報告的時候有提到\n融合發展依然還是中共對台的一個工作的這個重點那換句話說 局長你也認為中共暫時沒有武力犯台的這個動作是不是\n我們最近在觀察兩會期間包括兩會之前的中共的對台工作會議以及兩會期間包括習近平接見各個專業團體的代表王滬寧的談話以及李強的工作報告我們可以發現到他基本的政策主軸還是圍繞在和平、統一所延續出來的反獨、觸統、觸容跟反對外力介入跟干涉這是他的主調\n所以他以後會加重這個?\n但他就是要讓台灣社會有一些對於武統的想像、空間或是恐懼來達到他一個武力恫嚇的目的所以基本上還是合同的路線只是有一個脅迫性在透過複合式威脅來達到脅迫性的一個合同路線的一個推展那在另外一方面他們也提出所謂的兩岸促統促容的相關的方案這包括福建有提出了21條的對台的措施在\n全國兩會之前的福建的兩會他們過去的對台工作要點大概排在第6位第6順位但今年提升到第3順位也就是說在中央的大交流跟促統促融的工作指導之下福建也不斷地希望能夠推動兩岸的促統促融\n中共對台政策主要還是所謂的軟硬的兩手壓拉的兩手策略來對我們施壓那我們預判在520的前後這樣子的一個壓拉的兩手策略會持續的來進行對台灣來施壓那也來影響新政府未來兩岸政策的一個走向\n所以就算是給壓拉的這個方式基本上這個武力犯台的機率最近如果是近期來講是比較不可能發生的是嗎因為我有看到有一份報導就是中共的這個前情報員姚誠他有提到中國火箭軍的這個洩密案\n他就提到說這個泄密案會影響中共攻台的這個計畫．會把這個很有可能之前他們所設定的這個攻台的這個時間表的往後延．所以對於這個說法．所以局長您認為呢．會不會也是因為這個火箭軍事件．所以造成對中國目前來講．是沒有能力來渡海犯台．這是姚誠的說法 局長您覺得呢\n我想台海安全情勢的因素有非常非常的多而這些綜合因素交雜之下才會產生各種不同的劇本的情境那我們當然要針對不同因素所產生的不同劇本情境來做好相關的預應的方案跟措施就國安局的立場來講我們跟國防部還有相關的國安單位對於中共的軍事動態我們都有嚴密的掌控那也有相關的預應的措施\n那我們透過各種的情監偵的手段來瞭解到中共目前軍事活動的最新的狀況同時也會跟國際的友盟針對中共現階段到底有沒有新興的意圖還有相關的活動那來做相關的情報的交流目前我們沒有看到台海戰事一觸即發的相關的情資\n中共在第19屆六中全會有通過所謂的第三個歷史\n歷史決議就是在毛澤東時期1945年的時候通過的那第二個歷史決議是在1981年鄧小平時代通過的那當然第三個歷史決議就是去2021年習近平所通過的所謂的第三個歷史決議我在想這個動作其實也是奠定\n歷史定位的其中一個因為在所有的國家的領導人裡面也就是毛澤東、鄧小平跟習近平有提出了所謂的這個歷史決議那當然他的歷史決議跟鄧小平他的這個所覺得的內容其實有很大的這個分歧比如說鄧小平他那時候就覺得說不應該應該是要訂定一個比如說這個\n羅美玲議員\n這部分的話 局長是不是也可以讓有一個讓國人比較安心的這個說法\n對我想習近平他畢竟是一個建立了一個強人政治的一個領導的風格那對於強人政治來講對於他自己的歷史定位他都會有相關的一個論述我們都必須要嚴密來注意他除了論述以外後續的實際的一個行動那比較要特別注意到的是2027年習近平要達成他們中國解放軍建軍百年的總目標\n所以也造成這幾年他們在軍事上投注的資源非常的龐大事實上討論這個問題可能不能單單只是放在兩岸或台海的框架來講因為中國有他本身的大戰略希望能夠變成是一個區域甚至是全球性的強權他有他的各個階段不同的目標也正因為如此造成台海局勢以外不管是在東海、在南海或是在西太平洋\n各個國家都看到了中國武力的擴張那這也是我剛剛在口頭的書面報告有提到的國際的友盟對於這一塊的發展的動態非常的關注那也注意到台灣就站在中共武力擴張的第一線那願意跟台灣在各方面發展安全或情報上的交流所以我們在面對中共武力擴張的同時雖然承受不少的壓力但同時也開放了不少的機會可以加強跟國際友盟的合作\n是OK好謝謝局長那再來呢下一題就是有關於這個川普跟拜登那毫無懸念可能在今年的這個美國的大選應該就是拜登跟川普的這個對壘那川普跟拜登這兩個人其實對於在國在國際或國內他們的政策其實是有很大的不一樣那當然拜登呢最近的國情咨文裡面有提到就是說堅決維護\n拜登強調多邊主義,但也力挺烏克蘭。\n川普主張單邊主義,還是優先關注國內的議題?之前烏俄戰爭發生的時候,其實國人也是很關注美國對烏克蘭的態度。局長,我們這邊會不會擔心說,如果川普上任的話,\n他可能對烏克蘭的這個軍援的態度就改變了那進而影響的會不會說如果以後如果說台海發生戰爭的時候然後川普這邊對台灣的援助是不是會像烏克蘭這樣子的消極可能會發生這種事情嗎\n對我想就中華民國政府官員的立場來講我實在不便去對於美國的內政或選舉做太多的評論但是站在情報的角度我們可以針對各種的公情還有分析彙整一下來跟委員做個報告跟說明那就兩個總統的基本的外交路線確實有看到剛剛委員所指出來的一個差異性但是他們也有他們的趨同性特別是在社中的議題上對於中國的戰略的挑戰他們都高度的關注那另外也都對於台海的\n對於臺灣的軍售案\n不過這部分美國國會還是有一些辯論包括要不要再增加相關的增援的法案有一些辯論所以我想後續還是要看一下美國行政部門跟國會對於相關問題的討論的一個狀況才能夠下最後的一個定論他們有沒有一個比較新的政策路線出來\nOK,所以局長的意思是說就算是川普他勝出其實我們也不需要多大的擔心畢竟他曾經也擔任過美國的總統那在那幾年我們也看出說其實他對台灣\n謝謝局長 以上謝謝\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.891 --> 00:01.051\n羅美玲議員\n\n00:12.268 --> 00:26.218\n局長早很謝謝局長今天早上對今天的主題做了非常詳細的分析其實現在只要有什麼風吹草動其實國人都是憂心忡忡的常常會擔心說台海什麼時候會發生戰爭這是在我們基層常常聽到的一個問題\n\n00:33.163 --> 00:35.385\n中國國務院總理李強3月5日在全國人民大會發表的政府工作報告提到\n\n01:03.403 --> 01:25.511\n推進祖國統一少了和平這兩個字其實也引起了很多的揣測覺得非常的不尋常那當然後來習近平在六日的時候在兩會的演說有再次提到和平統一那昨天政協主席在閉幕式也提到和平統一這四個字所以局長你剛剛在報告的時候有提到\n\n01:30.353 --> 01:44.779\n融合發展依然還是中共對台的一個工作的這個重點那換句話說局長你也認為中共暫時沒有武力犯台的這個動作是不是\n\n01:45.479 --> 02:06.337\n我們最近在觀察兩會期間包括兩會之前的中共的對台工作會議以及兩會期間包括習近平接見各個專業團體的代表王滬寧的談話以及李強的工作報告我們可以發現到他基本的政策主軸還是圍繞在和平、統一所延續出來的反獨、觸統、觸容跟反對外力介入跟干涉這是他的主調\n\n02:06.957 --> 02:07.237\n所以他以後會加重這個?\n\n02:34.397 --> 02:58.289\n但他就是要讓台灣社會有一些對於武統的想像、空間或是恐懼來達到他一個武力恫嚇的目的所以基本上還是合同的路線只是有一個脅迫性在透過複合式威脅來達到脅迫性的一個合同路線的一個推展那在另外一方面他們也提出所謂的兩岸促統促容的相關的方案這包括福建有提出了21條的對台的措施在\n\n02:59.269 --> 03:15.721\n全國兩會之前的福建的兩會他們過去的對台工作要點大概排在第6位第6順位但今年提升到第3順位也就是說在中央的大交流跟促統促融的工作指導之下福建也不斷地希望能夠推動兩岸的促統促融\n\n03:16.061 --> 03:21.466\n中共對台政策主要還是所謂的軟硬的兩手壓拉的兩手策略來對我們施壓那我們預判在520的前後這樣子的一個壓拉的兩手策略會持續的來進行對台灣來施壓那也來影響新政府未來兩岸政策的一個走向\n\n03:42.145 --> 03:59.765\n所以就算是給壓拉的這個方式基本上這個武力犯台的機率最近如果是近期來講是比較不可能發生的是嗎因為我有看到有一份報導就是中共的這個前情報員姚誠他有提到中國火箭軍的這個洩密案\n\n04:01.787 --> 04:26.700\n他就提到說這個泄密案會影響中共攻台的這個計畫．會把這個很有可能之前他們所設定的這個攻台的這個時間表的往後延．所以對於這個說法．所以局長您認為呢．會不會也是因為這個火箭軍事件．所以造成對中國目前來講．是沒有能力來渡海犯台．這是姚誠的說法局長您覺得呢\n\n04:27.100 --> 04:53.124\n我想台海安全情勢的因素有非常非常的多而這些綜合因素交雜之下才會產生各種不同的劇本的情境那我們當然要針對不同因素所產生的不同劇本情境來做好相關的預應的方案跟措施就國安局的立場來講我們跟國防部還有相關的國安單位對於中共的軍事動態我們都有嚴密的掌控那也有相關的預應的措施\n\n04:53.584 --> 05:14.090\n那我們透過各種的情監偵的手段來瞭解到中共目前軍事活動的最新的狀況同時也會跟國際的友盟針對中共現階段到底有沒有新興的意圖還有相關的活動那來做相關的情報的交流目前我們沒有看到台海戰事一觸即發的相關的情資\n\n05:14.650 --> 05:15.951\n中共在第19屆六中全會有通過所謂的第三個歷史\n\n05:43.853 --> 06:05.924\n歷史決議就是在毛澤東時期1945年的時候通過的那第二個歷史決議是在1981年鄧小平時代通過的那當然第三個歷史決議就是去2021年習近平所通過的所謂的第三個歷史決議我在想這個動作其實也是奠定\n\n06:07.664 --> 06:29.191\n歷史定位的其中一個因為在所有的國家的領導人裡面也就是毛澤東、鄧小平跟習近平有提出了所謂的這個歷史決議那當然他的歷史決議跟鄧小平他的這個所覺得的內容其實有很大的這個分歧比如說鄧小平他那時候就覺得說不應該應該是要訂定一個比如說這個\n\n06:33.972 --> 06:34.032\n羅美玲議員\n\n06:54.261 --> 06:55.362\n這部分的話局長是不是也可以讓有一個讓國人比較安心的這個說法\n\n07:17.637 --> 07:39.580\n對我想習近平他畢竟是一個建立了一個強人政治的一個領導的風格那對於強人政治來講對於他自己的歷史定位他都會有相關的一個論述我們都必須要嚴密來注意他除了論述以外後續的實際的一個行動那比較要特別注意到的是2027年習近平要達成他們中國解放軍建軍百年的總目標\n\n07:40.220 --> 08:02.274\n所以也造成這幾年他們在軍事上投注的資源非常的龐大事實上討論這個問題可能不能單單只是放在兩岸或台海的框架來講因為中國有他本身的大戰略希望能夠變成是一個區域甚至是全球性的強權他有他的各個階段不同的目標也正因為如此造成台海局勢以外不管是在東海、在南海或是在西太平洋\n\n08:02.654 --> 08:27.643\n各個國家都看到了中國武力的擴張那這也是我剛剛在口頭的書面報告有提到的國際的友盟對於這一塊的發展的動態非常的關注那也注意到台灣就站在中共武力擴張的第一線那願意跟台灣在各方面發展安全或情報上的交流所以我們在面對中共武力擴張的同時雖然承受不少的壓力但同時也開放了不少的機會可以加強跟國際友盟的合作\n\n08:28.436 --> 08:55.714\n是OK好謝謝局長那再來呢下一題就是有關於這個川普跟拜登那毫無懸念可能在今年的這個美國的大選應該就是拜登跟川普的這個對壘那川普跟拜登這兩個人其實對於在國在國際或國內他們的政策其實是有很大的不一樣那當然拜登呢最近的國情咨文裡面有提到就是說堅決維護\n\n08:57.295 --> 08:58.036\n拜登強調多邊主義,但也力挺烏克蘭。\n\n09:14.689 --> 09:17.911\n川普主張單邊主義,還是優先關注國內的議題?之前烏俄戰爭發生的時候,其實國人也是很關注美國對烏克蘭的態度。局長,我們這邊會不會擔心說,如果川普上任的話,\n\n09:36.724 --> 09:52.412\n他可能對烏克蘭的這個軍援的態度就改變了那進而影響的會不會說如果以後如果說台海發生戰爭的時候然後川普這邊對台灣的援助是不是會像烏克蘭這樣子的消極可能會發生這種事情嗎\n\n09:53.291 --> 10:20.677\n對我想就中華民國政府官員的立場來講我實在不便去對於美國的內政或選舉做太多的評論但是站在情報的角度我們可以針對各種的公情還有分析彙整一下來跟委員做個報告跟說明那就兩個總統的基本的外交路線確實有看到剛剛委員所指出來的一個差異性但是他們也有他們的趨同性特別是在社中的議題上對於中國的戰略的挑戰他們都高度的關注那另外也都對於台海的\n\n10:21.357 --> 10:21.477\n對於臺灣的軍售案\n\n10:41.334 --> 10:57.904\n不過這部分美國國會還是有一些辯論包括要不要再增加相關的增援的法案有一些辯論所以我想後續還是要看一下美國行政部門跟國會對於相關問題的討論的一個狀況才能夠下最後的一個定論他們有沒有一個比較新的政策路線出來\n\n10:59.019 --> 11:08.493\nOK,所以局長的意思是說就算是川普他勝出其實我們也不需要多大的擔心畢竟他曾經也擔任過美國的總統那在那幾年我們也看出說其實他對台灣\n\n11:14.361 --> 11:14.481\n謝謝局長以上謝謝\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.891,"end":1.051,"text":"羅美玲議員"},{"start":12.268,"end":26.218,"text":"局長早很謝謝局長今天早上對今天的主題做了非常詳細的分析其實現在只要有什麼風吹草動其實國人都是憂心忡忡的常常會擔心說台海什麼時候會發生戰爭這是在我們基層常常聽到的一個問題"},{"start":33.163,"end":35.385,"text":"中國國務院總理李強3月5日在全國人民大會發表的政府工作報告提到"},{"start":63.403,"end":85.511,"text":"推進祖國統一少了和平這兩個字其實也引起了很多的揣測覺得非常的不尋常那當然後來習近平在六日的時候在兩會的演說有再次提到和平統一那昨天政協主席在閉幕式也提到和平統一這四個字所以局長你剛剛在報告的時候有提到"},{"start":90.353,"end":104.779,"text":"融合發展依然還是中共對台的一個工作的這個重點那換句話說 局長你也認為中共暫時沒有武力犯台的這個動作是不是"},{"start":105.479,"end":126.337,"text":"我們最近在觀察兩會期間包括兩會之前的中共的對台工作會議以及兩會期間包括習近平接見各個專業團體的代表王滬寧的談話以及李強的工作報告我們可以發現到他基本的政策主軸還是圍繞在和平、統一所延續出來的反獨、觸統、觸容跟反對外力介入跟干涉這是他的主調"},{"start":126.957,"end":127.237,"text":"所以他以後會加重這個?"},{"start":154.397,"end":178.289,"text":"但他就是要讓台灣社會有一些對於武統的想像、空間或是恐懼來達到他一個武力恫嚇的目的所以基本上還是合同的路線只是有一個脅迫性在透過複合式威脅來達到脅迫性的一個合同路線的一個推展那在另外一方面他們也提出所謂的兩岸促統促容的相關的方案這包括福建有提出了21條的對台的措施在"},{"start":179.269,"end":195.721,"text":"全國兩會之前的福建的兩會他們過去的對台工作要點大概排在第6位第6順位但今年提升到第3順位也就是說在中央的大交流跟促統促融的工作指導之下福建也不斷地希望能夠推動兩岸的促統促融"},{"start":196.061,"end":201.466,"text":"中共對台政策主要還是所謂的軟硬的兩手壓拉的兩手策略來對我們施壓那我們預判在520的前後這樣子的一個壓拉的兩手策略會持續的來進行對台灣來施壓那也來影響新政府未來兩岸政策的一個走向"},{"start":222.145,"end":239.765,"text":"所以就算是給壓拉的這個方式基本上這個武力犯台的機率最近如果是近期來講是比較不可能發生的是嗎因為我有看到有一份報導就是中共的這個前情報員姚誠他有提到中國火箭軍的這個洩密案"},{"start":241.787,"end":266.7,"text":"他就提到說這個泄密案會影響中共攻台的這個計畫．會把這個很有可能之前他們所設定的這個攻台的這個時間表的往後延．所以對於這個說法．所以局長您認為呢．會不會也是因為這個火箭軍事件．所以造成對中國目前來講．是沒有能力來渡海犯台．這是姚誠的說法 局長您覺得呢"},{"start":267.1,"end":293.124,"text":"我想台海安全情勢的因素有非常非常的多而這些綜合因素交雜之下才會產生各種不同的劇本的情境那我們當然要針對不同因素所產生的不同劇本情境來做好相關的預應的方案跟措施就國安局的立場來講我們跟國防部還有相關的國安單位對於中共的軍事動態我們都有嚴密的掌控那也有相關的預應的措施"},{"start":293.584,"end":314.09,"text":"那我們透過各種的情監偵的手段來瞭解到中共目前軍事活動的最新的狀況同時也會跟國際的友盟針對中共現階段到底有沒有新興的意圖還有相關的活動那來做相關的情報的交流目前我們沒有看到台海戰事一觸即發的相關的情資"},{"start":314.65,"end":315.951,"text":"中共在第19屆六中全會有通過所謂的第三個歷史"},{"start":343.853,"end":365.924,"text":"歷史決議就是在毛澤東時期1945年的時候通過的那第二個歷史決議是在1981年鄧小平時代通過的那當然第三個歷史決議就是去2021年習近平所通過的所謂的第三個歷史決議我在想這個動作其實也是奠定"},{"start":367.664,"end":389.191,"text":"歷史定位的其中一個因為在所有的國家的領導人裡面也就是毛澤東、鄧小平跟習近平有提出了所謂的這個歷史決議那當然他的歷史決議跟鄧小平他的這個所覺得的內容其實有很大的這個分歧比如說鄧小平他那時候就覺得說不應該應該是要訂定一個比如說這個"},{"start":393.972,"end":394.032,"text":"羅美玲議員"},{"start":414.261,"end":415.362,"text":"這部分的話 局長是不是也可以讓有一個讓國人比較安心的這個說法"},{"start":437.637,"end":459.58,"text":"對我想習近平他畢竟是一個建立了一個強人政治的一個領導的風格那對於強人政治來講對於他自己的歷史定位他都會有相關的一個論述我們都必須要嚴密來注意他除了論述以外後續的實際的一個行動那比較要特別注意到的是2027年習近平要達成他們中國解放軍建軍百年的總目標"},{"start":460.22,"end":482.274,"text":"所以也造成這幾年他們在軍事上投注的資源非常的龐大事實上討論這個問題可能不能單單只是放在兩岸或台海的框架來講因為中國有他本身的大戰略希望能夠變成是一個區域甚至是全球性的強權他有他的各個階段不同的目標也正因為如此造成台海局勢以外不管是在東海、在南海或是在西太平洋"},{"start":482.654,"end":507.643,"text":"各個國家都看到了中國武力的擴張那這也是我剛剛在口頭的書面報告有提到的國際的友盟對於這一塊的發展的動態非常的關注那也注意到台灣就站在中共武力擴張的第一線那願意跟台灣在各方面發展安全或情報上的交流所以我們在面對中共武力擴張的同時雖然承受不少的壓力但同時也開放了不少的機會可以加強跟國際友盟的合作"},{"start":508.436,"end":535.714,"text":"是OK好謝謝局長那再來呢下一題就是有關於這個川普跟拜登那毫無懸念可能在今年的這個美國的大選應該就是拜登跟川普的這個對壘那川普跟拜登這兩個人其實對於在國在國際或國內他們的政策其實是有很大的不一樣那當然拜登呢最近的國情咨文裡面有提到就是說堅決維護"},{"start":537.295,"end":538.036,"text":"拜登強調多邊主義,但也力挺烏克蘭。"},{"start":554.689,"end":557.911,"text":"川普主張單邊主義,還是優先關注國內的議題?之前烏俄戰爭發生的時候,其實國人也是很關注美國對烏克蘭的態度。局長,我們這邊會不會擔心說,如果川普上任的話,"},{"start":576.724,"end":592.412,"text":"他可能對烏克蘭的這個軍援的態度就改變了那進而影響的會不會說如果以後如果說台海發生戰爭的時候然後川普這邊對台灣的援助是不是會像烏克蘭這樣子的消極可能會發生這種事情嗎"},{"start":593.291,"end":620.677,"text":"對我想就中華民國政府官員的立場來講我實在不便去對於美國的內政或選舉做太多的評論但是站在情報的角度我們可以針對各種的公情還有分析彙整一下來跟委員做個報告跟說明那就兩個總統的基本的外交路線確實有看到剛剛委員所指出來的一個差異性但是他們也有他們的趨同性特別是在社中的議題上對於中國的戰略的挑戰他們都高度的關注那另外也都對於台海的"},{"start":621.357,"end":621.477,"text":"對於臺灣的軍售案"},{"start":641.334,"end":657.904,"text":"不過這部分美國國會還是有一些辯論包括要不要再增加相關的增援的法案有一些辯論所以我想後續還是要看一下美國行政部門跟國會對於相關問題的討論的一個狀況才能夠下最後的一個定論他們有沒有一個比較新的政策路線出來"},{"start":659.019,"end":668.493,"text":"OK,所以局長的意思是說就算是川普他勝出其實我們也不需要多大的擔心畢竟他曾經也擔任過美國的總統那在那幾年我們也看出說其實他對台灣"},{"start":674.361,"end":674.481,"text":"謝謝局長 以上謝謝"}]}}}}