{"id":150462,"url":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/150462","video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/9baf490faf5eb4d5cf542d4d202ae9a2edc5a8dea5ca6478f8ba9b0039caa7a63129c49fc139f4b85ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"郭國文","委員發言時間":"10:17:27 - 10:30:17","影片長度":"00:12:50","會議時間":"2024-03-27T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第5次全體委員會議（事由：邀請行政院主計總處朱主計長澤民、中央銀行楊總裁金龍、經濟部率台灣電力股份有限公司就電價大漲及央行升息對物價波動的影響進行專題報告，並備質詢。\n【3月25日及27日二天一次會】）","meet":{"tmpMeeting":null,"title":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第5次全體委員會議","term":11,"type":"委員會","sessionPeriod":1,"sessionTimes":5,"committees":[20],"id":"委員會-11-1-20-5"},"date":"2024-03-27","duration":770,"end_time":"2024-03-27T10:30:17+08:00","start_time":"2024-03-27T10:17:27+08:00","features":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"type":"Clip","gazette":{"lineno":451,"blocks":[["郭委員國文：（10時17分）謝謝主席。有請楊金龍楊總裁。"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：郭委員早。"],["郭委員國文：總裁好。總裁，剛剛本席聆聽你回答的內容當中有特別強調，之所以會有升息半碼的部分，主要是來自於這幾年我們的CPI都超過2%以上，特別是前年到2.95%，去年是2.49%。"],["楊總裁金龍：對、是。"],["郭委員國文：在理事會之後也特別強調，今後的實質負利率會朝趨正的方向來進行，雖然現在還是負利率，所以我覺得你特別提到這一點是不是有考量到除了物價的因素之外，實質的負利率也會造成定存族解約，然後去追逐ETF的這種現象？你有考慮到金融的因素，有沒有？"],["楊總裁金龍：報告委員，一個投資人對於風險的承受程度，他會有他自己的考量，定存有定存它的……"],["郭委員國文：你是在談個金，我是在跟你談總金啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：一樣啊！個金的話……"],["郭委員國文：在整個金融穩定上面，一大堆人一窩蜂，就像你說的那個羊群現象啊！你是不是有考慮到這一點？本席在就教於你。"],["楊總裁金龍：你說我們升息是不是也有……"],["郭委員國文：對，有沒有考慮到這一點？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想不是，升息整個主要的考慮還是通膨啦！"],["郭委員國文：還是通膨？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：所以還是CPI的部分？"],["楊總裁金龍：還是CPI的部分。"],["郭委員國文：你如果說是CPI的部分，那本席要就教於您關於CPI的部分，剛剛您在回答相關委員的時候，在CPI的部分，我們以為我們如果升息的話，照理說，我們的臺幣應該也會跟著升值，可是你說因為相對美元強勢的關係。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：可是相對美元強勢的關係，我們的臺幣不斷的走貶，到今天早上開盤的時候還跑到31.96，也就是將近32塊，如果臺幣走貶的情況底下，你覺得進口物價會相對上漲的話，是不是對CPI更加不利？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想第一個，剛剛委員也講了，新臺幣貶值主要是美元的強勢，而美元強勢，你看看韓元的利率都比我們高……"],["郭委員國文：這個你剛剛講過就不用再講了，我的意思是說，一般而言，對我們的通膨是不是會有加劇的效果？"],["楊總裁金龍：不會，如果說……"],["郭委員國文：進口物價變貴了哦！"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，我們從我們的美元計價的進口物價，跟新臺幣計價的進口物價指數都是負的，已經好幾個月都是負的。"],["郭委員國文：都是負的？"],["楊總裁金龍：都是負的。"],["郭委員國文：那是美元啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有、沒有，當用美元計價的也是負的，用新臺幣計價的也是負的。"],["郭委員國文：所以相對進口還是便宜？"],["楊總裁金龍：還是便宜。"],["郭委員國文：所以說這個部分的費率走貶沒有什麼關係？"],["楊總裁金龍：不會。"],["郭委員國文：所以現階段有可能的狀況就是主計總處所談到國際原物料的部分還是居高不下的因素，還有另外媒體可能不斷的造成這種報導，或者是相對有炒作現象的情況底下會產生的預期心理？"],["楊總裁金龍：對啦，沒錯啦！"],["郭委員國文：主要是預期嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：是的。"],["郭委員國文：問題在於同樣是可以用預期的方式，為什麼美國的Fed偶爾都會放一下說它預期可能會降息、它預期可能會升息，可是我們總裁口中好像聽不到什麼預期，我的意思是說，你有沒有可能用預期來打預期？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，美國的預期，它也有點陣圖，點陣圖就是它的預期啦！就是它的forward guidance，但是它的forward guidance是在它QE的時候所實行的，事實上，很多學者都……"],["郭委員國文：總裁，有幾次很明白喔！"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：譬如它說要降三波，這個很清楚啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：嗯，但是……"],["郭委員國文：您的報告當中寫的都相對非常保守，就是你會持續去觀察。"],["楊總裁金龍：對、對、對。"],["郭委員國文：你只是寫第二點持續觀察……"],["楊總裁金龍：我想這樣子才對啦！"],["郭委員國文：你的第一點，你要肯定穩定物價小組進行很多措施，有效果。"],["楊總裁金龍：是啊！"],["郭委員國文：穩定物價小組那些措施如果真的有效果的話，我們的CPI不會這樣持續緩步……"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有，委員，我跟你報告，如果我們的穩定小組沒有……"],["郭委員國文：我沒有說完全沒有用，總裁，我沒有說完全沒有用。"],["楊總裁金龍：我說很有用。"],["郭委員國文：那也是用到極限了嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：我就說很有用。"],["郭委員國文：所以說那個有用，不是說沒有用，但是還是上升嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：不、不、不。"],["郭委員國文：也是因為這樣上升，你才會升息不是嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：但是如果說我們把……"],["郭委員國文：而且總裁你升息不只1次欸，據我的理解，應該是第4次了。"],["楊總裁金龍：我們升息的幅度還是相對穩定，還是相對溫和的啊！"],["郭委員國文：我知道，你就是溫和漸進的方式嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：對，溫和漸進啊！"],["郭委員國文：但是站在民眾的角來看，老實說，我還是建議你可以稍微放開一點，可以用預期的方式來壓制預期，或許這是一個不錯的方式啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：是啦！"],["郭委員國文：你考慮一下。"],["楊總裁金龍：好、好、好。"],["郭委員國文：你考慮一下。"],["楊總裁金龍：對、對、對，委員的這種建議，我們來考慮一下。"],["郭委員國文：你來考慮一下。"],["楊總裁金龍：好、好、好。"],["郭委員國文：可以用預期的方式來對抗預期。"],["楊總裁金龍：好，那是很好的建議。"],["郭委員國文：謝謝你的肯定。另外一個部分，為什麼這種預期會這樣令人產生沒有辦法預期的CPI，你知道嗎？你去看一下自己在報告當中所寫的，在核心品項當中，過去6年，在半年內調整只有占5.9%，兩年以上是35.8%，也就是說，以前CPI在調漲的時候、物價在調漲的時候是緩緩的，為什麼大家會覺得加劇呢？因為CPI不是只有看幅度而已，還要看整個調漲的頻率，在這個頻率上，在2021到2023的時候，小於半年是39.7%，近四成喔！半年到一年是35.2%，這都是央行的報告哦！"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：加總起來是75%欸！也就是說，商品的調降幅度高達七成五，週期頻率從原來的2年調升變半年、變1年，總裁，對民眾來說是切身的感受，你認為有什麼方法來處理？"],["楊總裁金龍：我覺得委員講得沒有錯啦！不過，這個是你引用我們報告裡面的資訊，那是沒有錯，但是我跟委員報告，你如果再仔細觀察一下，事實上我們的17項重要民生物資也是持續下來的、也是持續下來的。"],["郭委員國文：沒有，總裁，不好意思，我給你打斷，我在講東，你在講西。"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有，我們都在講物價。"],["郭委員國文：數字是這個部分，你要講物價，我再講一個立法院三寶的雞排價格就好，過往立法院雞排要漲5塊錢，我們要超過60個月，後來變41個月，後來37個月，最近兩年都是在14個月就調漲了。就是說從你的總體數字還有整個立法院的單一個案來看、來比較的話，都是這種呈現。我要問你的是solution，不是跟我比較其他的現象，這個問題就民眾的感受來講壓力很大。"],["楊總裁金龍：對啦！這個我同意委員的看法，民眾對於時常購買的，因為他跟民生有關係……"],["郭委員國文：對啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：但是我要跟委員報告，事實上，全球的中央銀行是看整體的。"],["郭委員國文：我當然知道。"],["楊總裁金龍：它不是看一個雞排是多少、蛋價是多少，它不會的。"],["郭委員國文：我好像要問主計長才對，不應該問你，但是問題是，我是說就趨勢上和平穩物價的部分，現實的路線和頻率上的問題，不是幅度。"],["楊總裁金龍：我也跟委員報告，事實上17項民生物品也是持續在下降，每月至少購買的次數比較多的，事實上它也是一直在下降。"],["郭委員國文：就是總體下降，但是問題是，調漲的頻率是增加……"],["楊總裁金龍：不是總體下降，我就說17項重要的民生物品，就17項啊……"],["郭委員國文：還是有漲，只是漲得沒有那麼高，漲幅下降，但是還是漲，總裁，但還是漲。"],["楊總裁金龍：對啦、對啦！但是物價也是在平緩下來。"],["郭委員國文：我今天先跟你討論到這邊，後面我針對你的報告，以後有機會再跟你討論。","我想要問一下曾文生次長。"],["主席：請曾次長。"],["曾次長文生：委員早。"],["郭委員國文：次長，這次調漲看起來好像是逼不得已，過去我們財委會所看到歲計賸餘有撥補500億到台電。"],["曾次長文生：是。"],["郭委員國文：第二次撥補1,000億嘛！"],["曾次長文生：沒有，第二次還沒有。"],["郭委員國文：第二次還沒有。第二次有預期嗎？"],["曾次長文生：我們有跟院裡面做報告。"],["郭委員國文：對，我知道第二次要1,000啦，目標價是1,000，這樣500加1,000是1,500，然後再加上調漲，有解決過去台電政策負擔所造成之虧損的弭平嗎？"],["曾次長文生：跟委員報告，500億是去年的，我們現在要處理的是2024年，我這樣講，原來是1,000億給我們，再加上電價的調整……"],["郭委員國文：漲價，年底就會破產？"],["曾次長文生：破產是還不至於啦！就是如果有這1,000億的挹注，再加上這一次電價的調整，至於要損益兩平，我們台電也會一起來努力。"],["郭委員國文：所以兩年以後才會損益打平？要漲兩年之後損益才會打平？"],["曾次長文生：我跟委員報告，很多國家的電價，我這樣說……"],["郭委員國文：你漲我可以理解啦，我沒有懷疑你漲，我只是想要知道你漲的效果，漲成這樣有沒有達到預期的目標？當初它政策負擔的虧損，有沒有達到損益平衡？"],["曾次長文生：應該是接近可以損益……不會像去年這樣子虧損幅度這麼大。"],["郭委員國文：也就是說，這兩年當中，漲價之後可以創造多少盈餘？我就這樣問您好了。"],["曾次長文生：現在還不至於創造盈餘，但是可以……"],["郭委員國文：不是創造盈餘，是增加多少收入？"],["曾次長文生：六百多億，在今年2024年這次的調整方案可以增加……"],["郭委員國文：2024年可以增加六百多億，那明年可以增加六百多億，總共增加一千兩百多億，然後再加上撥補1,500億，加起來剛好是兩千七百多億就可以打平過去政策的負擔，是不是？"],["曾次長文生：委員，你剛才講的已經兩年了。"],["郭委員國文：對，兩年。"],["曾次長文生：現在我們算的年度，你知道盈虧一定是一年一年。"],["郭委員國文：我是說你的政策負擔也是累積而來，我算總數啦，不是算年度。"],["曾次長文生：但是補助的只有一年，沒有年年有，所以只能夠算電價的調整，沒有辦法算總數。"],["郭委員國文：所以今年電價調整可以讓台電增加六百多億的收入就是了？"],["曾次長文生：九個月，對。"],["郭委員國文：九個月六百多，那九個月到明年的話就增加更多啦？"],["曾次長文生：800，一年。"],["郭委員國文：800，這兩年可以增加大概1,500嘛，對不對？就差不多了嘛？"],["曾次長文生：沒有，委員……"],["郭委員國文：我問這個問題的原因是說你短期內就不會再漲了，是不是啦？不會再漲了？"],["曾次長文生：我這樣講，我們現在的價格……"],["郭委員國文：兩年之內就不會再漲了？"],["曾次長文生：這個事情很簡單的算法，就是這一次調漲有沒有到它的成本價。"],["郭委員國文：對。"],["曾次長文生：還沒有完全達到成本價。"],["郭委員國文：如果沒有達到成本價的話，本席最後給你一個建議，真的不要再漲了，會造成CPI的上升，我建議還是像今年股市這種表現方式，歲計賸餘還是有可能，我還是建議你朝向這個部分來進行。"],["曾次長文生：我們會讓電價委員會來討論，好不好？這是明年的討論。"],["郭委員國文：不是電價委員會，你要告訴行政院啦！謝謝。"],["主席：現在請賴惠員賴委員。","等一下還有伍麗華委員，下一個王鴻薇委員質詢以後，我們就休息10分鐘。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":370,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-20-5","speakers":["羅明才","吳秉叡","林德福","賴士葆","李彥秀","郭國文","賴惠員","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","王鴻薇","李坤城","黃珊珊","王世堅","鄭天財Sra 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\"就是說商品的這個調降的幅度高達7乘5那個週期頻率呢從原來兩年調升變半年變一年我覺得那個總裁這個感受上是非常對民眾來說是切身的感受你認為有什麼方法來處理啊\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"就\", \"start\": 414.285, \"end\": 414.405, \"score\": 0.904}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 414.405, \"end\": 415.265, \"score\": 0.967}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"商\", \"start\": 415.265, \"end\": 415.585, \"score\": 0.942}, {\"word\": \"品\", \"start\": 415.585, \"end\": 415.785, \"score\": 0.991}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 415.785, \"end\": 417.046, \"score\": 0.894}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"調\"}, {\"word\": \"降\", \"start\": 417.046, \"end\": 417.186, \"score\": 0.922}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 417.186, \"end\": 417.386, \"score\": 0.982}, {\"word\": \"幅\", \"start\": 417.386, \"end\": 417.586, \"score\": 0.914}, {\"word\": \"度\", \"start\": 417.586, \"end\": 417.826, \"score\": 0.997}, {\"word\": \"高\", \"start\": 417.826, \"end\": 418.486, \"score\": 0.914}, {\"word\": \"達\"}, {\"word\": \"7\"}, {\"word\": \"乘\", \"start\": 418.486, 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\"我跟委員報告其實就要漲兩年之後你的損益可以打很多國家的電價我這樣子說就是很多國家的電價你這樣我可以理解啦我沒有懷疑你漲啦我是說我只是想要知道說你漲的這個效果漲成這樣子有沒有達到預期的目標當初他的政策負擔有沒有達成他的虧損有達到損益平衡沒有應該是接近可以損益不會有像去年這樣子虧損幅度這麼大也就是說你這兩年當中可以把\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 640.598, \"end\": 640.718, \"score\": 0.946}, {\"word\": \"跟\", \"start\": 640.718, \"end\": 640.998, \"score\": 0.872}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 640.998, \"end\": 641.378, \"score\": 0.884}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"報\"}, {\"word\": \"告\", \"start\": 641.378, \"end\": 641.578, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"其\", \"start\": 641.578, \"end\": 641.798, \"score\": 0.99}, {\"word\": \"實\"}, {\"word\": \"就\", \"start\": 641.798, \"end\": 641.938, \"score\": 0.854}, {\"word\": \"要\", \"start\": 641.938, \"end\": 642.558, \"score\": 0.929}, {\"word\": \"漲\"}, {\"word\": \"兩\"}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 642.558, \"end\": 642.738, \"score\": 0.882}, {\"word\": \"之\", \"start\": 642.738, \"end\": 642.838, \"score\": 0.671}, {\"word\": \"後\", \"start\": 642.838, \"end\": 642.938, 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\"score\": 0.896}, {\"word\": \"虧\"}, {\"word\": \"損\"}, {\"word\": \"幅\", \"start\": 663.742, \"end\": 663.882, \"score\": 0.901}, {\"word\": \"度\", \"start\": 663.882, \"end\": 664.282, \"score\": 0.869}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"麼\"}, {\"word\": \"大\", \"start\": 664.282, \"end\": 664.742, \"score\": 0.899}, {\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 664.742, \"end\": 664.883, \"score\": 0.992}, {\"word\": \"就\", \"start\": 664.883, \"end\": 665.103, \"score\": 0.982}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 665.103, \"end\": 665.283, \"score\": 0.878}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"你\", \"start\": 665.283, \"end\": 665.823, \"score\": 0.911}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"兩\"}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 665.823, \"end\": 666.223, \"score\": 0.936}, {\"word\": \"當\"}, {\"word\": \"中\", \"start\": 666.223, \"end\": 666.423, \"score\": 0.963}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 666.423, \"end\": 666.543, \"score\": 0.994}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 666.543, \"end\": 666.743, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"把\", \"start\": 666.743, \"end\": 666.763, \"score\": 0.997}]}, {\"start\": 667.643, \"end\": 693.204, \"text\": \"那個漲價之後可以創造多少盈餘我就這樣問您好了還不至於創造盈餘但是可以創造創造增加多少收入600多億在今年2024年可以增加600多億那明年可以增加600多億總共增加1200多億然後再加上撥補1500億然後加起來剛好是2700多億就可以打平過去政策的負擔是不是委員你剛才講的已經兩年了對兩年\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 667.643, \"end\": 668.364, \"score\": 0.802}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"漲\"}, {\"word\": \"價\"}, {\"word\": \"之\", \"start\": 668.364, \"end\": 668.444, \"score\": 0.851}, {\"word\": \"後\", \"start\": 668.444, \"end\": 668.624, \"score\": 0.861}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 668.624, \"end\": 668.724, \"score\": 0.979}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 668.724, \"end\": 669.224, \"score\": 0.806}, {\"word\": \"創\"}, {\"word\": \"造\", \"start\": 669.224, \"end\": 669.345, \"score\": 0.922}, {\"word\": \"多\", \"start\": 669.345, \"end\": 669.465, \"score\": 0.916}, {\"word\": \"少\", \"start\": 669.465, \"end\": 669.625, \"score\": 0.853}, {\"word\": \"盈\", \"start\": 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\"score\": 0.938}, {\"word\": \"要\", \"start\": 759.936, \"end\": 760.056, \"score\": 0.849}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 760.056, \"end\": 760.356, \"score\": 0.924}, {\"word\": \"行\", \"start\": 760.356, \"end\": 760.496, \"score\": 0.859}, {\"word\": \"政\", \"start\": 760.496, \"end\": 760.636, \"score\": 0.817}, {\"word\": \"院\", \"start\": 760.636, \"end\": 760.776, \"score\": 0.857}, {\"word\": \"啦\", \"start\": 760.776, \"end\": 761.156, \"score\": 0.955}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"賴\"}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"賴\"}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 761.156, \"end\": 761.176, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"員\"}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:00,546 --> 00:00:01,269\n有請楊金龍、楊總裁請楊總裁\n\n2\n00:00:11,543 --> 00:00:31,662\n國文早總裁好總裁剛剛本席在聆聽你在回答的這個內容當中有特別強調之所以會有這一個升息這一個半碼的這個部分主要是來自於這幾年我們的CPI都超過2%以上特別是前年到2.95去年是2.49\n\n3\n00:00:36,026 --> 00:00:58,392\n您在理事會之後也特別強調說今後的實質負利率會朝趨正的方向來進行但雖然現在還是負利率所以我覺得你特別提到這一點的部分是不是有考量到除了物價的因素之外實質的負利率也會造成定存期\n\n4\n00:00:58,772 --> 00:01:01,655\n我想報委員就是說一個投資人他的一個對於風險的承受程度\n\n5\n00:01:18,991 --> 00:01:45,402\n他會有他自己的考量是那麼定存有定存他的那你是在談個金我是在跟你談總金啊不那也一樣啊就是說在整個金融穩定上面一大頓一窩蜂就像你說的那個陽權現象的部分啊對啊你是不是有考慮到這一點啊本席在救教於你你說我們升息是不是對對有沒有考慮到這一點我想不是升息的整個的主要的還是通膨啦\n\n6\n00:01:46,002 --> 00:02:00,774\n還是通膨所以說還是CPI的部分對還是CPI的部分可是你如果說CPI的部分那本席就較於你的CPI的部分那剛剛你在回答這相關委員的時候在CPI的部分當中我們就以為啦這個我們如果升息的話\n\n7\n00:02:01,354 --> 00:02:14,462\n照說這一個我們的台幣應該也會跟著升值可是你說因為相對美元的強勢的關係可是相對美元強勢的關係我們的台幣不斷的走貶那到今天早上的時候開盤的時候還跑到31.96也就將近32塊\n\n8\n00:02:19,345 --> 00:02:41,050\n那你若台幣走貶的情況底下你覺得對於這個進口物價會相對上漲的部分的話是不是對CPI更加不利我想第一個剛剛委員講就是說新台幣貶值主要是美元的強勢那美元強勢你看看韓元的利益都比我們高這個你剛才講過你就不用再講了我是說對我們的通膨是不是會有加劇的效果嗎一般而言嗎也不會\n\n9\n00:02:46,571 --> 00:02:51,033\n我跟委員報告我們從我們的美元計價的進口物價跟新台幣計價的那個進口物價指數都是負的已經好幾個月都是負的\n\n10\n00:03:05,250 --> 00:03:27,282\n都是負的?都是負的。那是美元吶?沒有沒有,當用美元計價的也是負。用新台幣計價的也是負的。所以說相對進口還是便宜?還是便宜。所以說這個部分的費率走貶沒有什麼關係?不會。所以現階段你就說有可能的狀況就是主計處理所所談到的這個國際原物料的這個部分還是居高不下的因素?\n\n11\n00:03:27,782 --> 00:03:55,887\n還有另外媒體有可能不斷的這個造成這一種報導或者是相對有炒作的一種現象的情況底下會產生預期心理對啦還主要是預期嘛那問題是在於說同樣是可以用預期的方式為什麼美國的FDA的部分偶爾都放一下說他預期可能會降息他預期可能會升息可是對於這個我們總裁的口中好像也聽不到什麼預期\n\n12\n00:03:57,355 --> 00:04:23,394\n我意思是說你有沒有可能用預期來打預期啊我跟委員報告就是說美國他的預期他也有點證圖點證圖就是他的預期啦就是他的fulguidance就是說他的一個他的那個fulguidance但是呢他的fulguidance是在他QE的時候所實行的事實上呢\n\n13\n00:04:26,455 --> 00:04:51,560\n有幾次很明白喔總裁有幾次很明白喔他預計比如講他說要降三波這個很清楚啊您的報告當中啊您的報告當中寫的都相對非常的保守就你會持續去觀察對對對對對你只是寫第二點持續觀察我想這樣是才對的啦你的第一點你的第一點呢你要肯定穩定物價小組進行很多措施有效果\n\n14\n00:04:51,860 --> 00:04:54,082\n我沒有說完全沒有用我沒有說完全沒有用那也是用到緊繃了嘛所以說\n\n15\n00:05:11,775 --> 00:05:39,857\n那個有用不是說沒有用但是還是還是上升嘛所以說也是因為這樣上升你才會升息不是嗎而且總裁你升息不只一次欸那當然那我們升息的弧度還是相對穩定還是相對溫和的啊你知道你就溫和漸進的方式嘛但是站在民眾的角度來看的話喔老實說我還是建議說你可以稍微\n\n16\n00:05:40,638 --> 00:06:03,081\n稍微放開一點,可以用預期的方式來壓制預期。或許這個是一個不錯的方式啦。是啦。你考慮一下。我說你的發言沒有被預期的嘛。你要考慮一下。可以用預期的方式來對抗預期。好,那是很好的建議。謝謝你的肯定啦。那另外一個部分喔。\n\n17\n00:06:03,901 --> 00:06:21,206\n為什麼這種預期的預期會這樣子的令人家產生沒有辦法預期的CPI你知道嗎你去看一下你自己在報告當中所寫的核心的品項當中過去6年在半年內調整就佔5.9%兩年以上是35.8%也就是說以前在CPI在調漲的時候物價在調漲的時候是緩緩的\n\n18\n00:06:30,949 --> 00:06:48,902\n為什麼大家會覺得加劇呢?因為CPI不是只有看幅度而已還要看整個這個條帳的這個頻率啊這個頻率上在2021到2023的時候你看小於半年39.7塊4成半年到一年是35.2這都是央行的報告加總起來是75%\n\n19\n00:06:54,285 --> 00:07:11,710\n就是說商品的這個調降的幅度高達7乘5那個週期頻率呢從原來兩年調升變半年變一年我覺得那個總裁這個感受上是非常對民眾來說是切身的感受你認為有什麼方法來處理啊\n\n20\n00:07:12,410 --> 00:07:25,356\n我覺得委員是講的沒有錯不過這個就是我們的報告裡面的你引用那是沒有錯但是我跟委員報告你如果說仔細再觀察一下事實上我們的\n\n21\n00:07:27,677 --> 00:07:33,403\n十七項的重要民生物資事實上也是持續在下來的沒有我現在那個總裁不好意思我給你打斷我在講東你在講西我們都在講物價數字是這個部分好那你要講物價我再講一個立法院的三寶的雞排價格就好過往呢立法院的雞排要占個五塊錢啊\n\n22\n00:07:49,561 --> 00:07:54,170\n我們要超過60個月後來變41個月後來37個月最近兩年都調帳都是在14個月就調帳了\n\n23\n00:08:00,543 --> 00:08:19,729\n就是說從一個總體的你的數字還有整個立法院的單一的這個個案來看比較的話都是這種呈現啊那我問你的是solution不是你跟我比較其他的現象這個問題在民眾當中的感受就壓力很大啊這個我同意委員的看法啦\n\n24\n00:08:19,889 --> 00:08:42,317\n也就是說民眾對於時常購買的啊因為他跟民生有關所以他他對但是我要跟我要跟委員報告就是說事實上呢全球的中央銀行呢他是看整體的啦我當然知道他不是說看一個雞排是多少那蛋價是多少他不會的\n\n25\n00:08:42,657 --> 00:09:06,819\n我好像要問主計長才對齁不應該問你齁但是問題是說我是說這個趨勢上在平穩物價的部分啦限制上的物價平率上的問題剛剛我也跟委員報告就是說事實上17項的民生物品也是在持續在下降啊那你那個就是說每月每月至少購買的次數比較多的那事實上它也是一直在下降啊\n\n26\n00:09:07,887 --> 00:09:10,828\n總裁金龍、經濟部率台灣電力股份有限公司就電價大漲及央行升息\n\n27\n00:09:37,833 --> 00:10:01,269\n委員長市長這次是調帳好像看起來是逼不得已以前呢過去我們財政委員會所看到的那個稅基剩餘有撥補500億到台電嘛是第二次撥補1000億嘛沒有第二次還沒有第二次還沒有第二次有預期嗎我們有跟院裡面做報告對我知道第二次要1000啦我的目標價是1000這樣500加10001500然後再加上調這樣有解決了這個\n\n28\n00:10:05,451 --> 00:10:18,962\n過去政策負擔台電所造成的虧損的擬評了嗎?公委員報告就是說那個500億是去年的我們現在要處理的是2024年的原來我這樣子講就是1000億給我們再加上電價的調整那我也會努力來\n\n29\n00:10:25,708 --> 00:10:26,749\n兩年以後才會損益打平\n\n30\n00:10:40,598 --> 00:11:06,763\n我跟委員報告其實就要漲兩年之後你的損益可以打很多國家的電價我這樣子說就是很多國家的電價你這樣我可以理解啦我沒有懷疑你漲啦我是說我只是想要知道說你漲的這個效果漲成這樣子有沒有達到預期的目標當初他的政策負擔有沒有達成他的虧損有達到損益平衡沒有應該是接近可以損益不會有像去年這樣子虧損幅度這麼大也就是說你這兩年當中可以把\n\n31\n00:11:07,643 --> 00:11:33,204\n那個漲價之後可以創造多少盈餘我就這樣問您好了還不至於創造盈餘但是可以創造創造增加多少收入600多億在今年2024年可以增加600多億那明年可以增加600多億總共增加1200多億然後再加上撥補1500億然後加起來剛好是2700多億就可以打平過去政策的負擔是不是委員你剛才講的已經兩年了對兩年\n\n32\n00:11:35,085 --> 00:12:00,254\n現在我們算的年度你要贏虧就是一定是一年一年我說你的政策負擔也是累積而來我算總數啦但是補助的只有一年他沒有年年有所以要算只能夠算電價的調整沒有辦法算補助所以你今年的電價調整可以讓台電增加六百多億的收入就是九個月對九個月六百多那九個月到明年的話那就增加更多啦八百一年八百那就這兩年可以增加大概一千五嘛對不對\n\n33\n00:12:02,543 --> 00:12:25,731\n就差不多了嗎?沒有,我就要問這個問題,原因是說你短期內就不會再漲了,是不是啦?我這樣子講,我們現在的價格...兩年之內就不會再漲了吧?這個事情不是很簡單的算法,就是他有沒有到這一次調漲有沒有到他的成本價,還沒有完全達到成本價。如果沒有達到成本價的話,本席最後給你一個建議,真的不要再漲了。\n\n34\n00:12:28,792 --> 00:12:41,176\n我建議你還是像今年的股市的這種表現方式稅基剩餘還是有可能我覺得建議你是朝向這個部分來進行那個我們會讓電價委員會來討論好不好這明年來討論你要到行政院啦謝謝賴會員賴委員\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n546\t1269\t有請楊金龍、楊總裁請楊總裁\n11543\t31662\t國文早總裁好總裁剛剛本席在聆聽你在回答的這個內容當中有特別強調之所以會有這一個升息這一個半碼的這個部分主要是來自於這幾年我們的CPI都超過2%以上特別是前年到2.95去年是2.49\n36026\t58392\t您在理事會之後也特別強調說今後的實質負利率會朝趨正的方向來進行但雖然現在還是負利率所以我覺得你特別提到這一點的部分是不是有考量到除了物價的因素之外實質的負利率也會造成定存期\n58772\t61655\t我想報委員就是說一個投資人他的一個對於風險的承受程度\n78991\t105402\t他會有他自己的考量是那麼定存有定存他的那你是在談個金我是在跟你談總金啊不那也一樣啊就是說在整個金融穩定上面一大頓一窩蜂就像你說的那個陽權現象的部分啊對啊你是不是有考慮到這一點啊本席在救教於你你說我們升息是不是對對有沒有考慮到這一點我想不是升息的整個的主要的還是通膨啦\n106002\t120774\t還是通膨所以說還是CPI的部分對還是CPI的部分可是你如果說CPI的部分那本席就較於你的CPI的部分那剛剛你在回答這相關委員的時候在CPI的部分當中我們就以為啦這個我們如果升息的話\n121354\t134462\t照說這一個我們的台幣應該也會跟著升值可是你說因為相對美元的強勢的關係可是相對美元強勢的關係我們的台幣不斷的走貶那到今天早上的時候開盤的時候還跑到31.96也就將近32塊\n139345\t161050\t那你若台幣走貶的情況底下你覺得對於這個進口物價會相對上漲的部分的話是不是對CPI更加不利我想第一個剛剛委員講就是說新台幣貶值主要是美元的強勢那美元強勢你看看韓元的利益都比我們高這個你剛才講過你就不用再講了我是說對我們的通膨是不是會有加劇的效果嗎一般而言嗎也不會\n166571\t171033\t我跟委員報告我們從我們的美元計價的進口物價跟新台幣計價的那個進口物價指數都是負的已經好幾個月都是負的\n185250\t207282\t都是負的?都是負的。那是美元吶?沒有沒有,當用美元計價的也是負。用新台幣計價的也是負的。所以說相對進口還是便宜?還是便宜。所以說這個部分的費率走貶沒有什麼關係?不會。所以現階段你就說有可能的狀況就是主計處理所所談到的這個國際原物料的這個部分還是居高不下的因素?\n207782\t235887\t還有另外媒體有可能不斷的這個造成這一種報導或者是相對有炒作的一種現象的情況底下會產生預期心理對啦還主要是預期嘛那問題是在於說同樣是可以用預期的方式為什麼美國的FDA的部分偶爾都放一下說他預期可能會降息他預期可能會升息可是對於這個我們總裁的口中好像也聽不到什麼預期\n237355\t263394\t我意思是說你有沒有可能用預期來打預期啊我跟委員報告就是說美國他的預期他也有點證圖點證圖就是他的預期啦就是他的ful guidance就是說他的一個他的那個ful guidance但是呢他的ful guidance是在他QE的時候所實行的事實上呢\n266455\t291560\t有幾次很明白喔 總裁有幾次很明白喔他預計比如講他說要降三波這個很清楚啊您的報告當中啊您的報告當中寫的都相對非常的保守就你會持續去觀察對對對對對你只是寫第二點持續觀察我想這樣是才對的啦你的第一點你的第一點呢你要肯定穩定物價小組進行很多措施有效果\n291860\t294082\t我沒有說完全沒有用我沒有說完全沒有用那也是用到緊繃了嘛所以說\n311775\t339857\t那個有用不是說沒有用但是還是還是上升嘛所以說也是因為這樣上升你才會升息不是嗎而且總裁你升息不只一次欸那當然那我們升息的弧度還是相對穩定還是相對溫和的啊你知道你就溫和漸進的方式嘛但是站在民眾的角度來看的話喔老實說我還是建議說你可以稍微\n340638\t363081\t稍微放開一點,可以用預期的方式來壓制預期。或許這個是一個不錯的方式啦。是啦。你考慮一下。我說你的發言沒有被預期的嘛。你要考慮一下。可以用預期的方式來對抗預期。好,那是很好的建議。謝謝你的肯定啦。那另外一個部分喔。\n363901\t381206\t為什麼這種預期的預期會這樣子的令人家產生沒有辦法預期的CPI你知道嗎你去看一下你自己在報告當中所寫的核心的品項當中過去6年在半年內調整就佔5.9%兩年以上是35.8%也就是說以前在CPI在調漲的時候物價在調漲的時候是緩緩的\n390949\t408902\t為什麼大家會覺得加劇呢?因為CPI不是只有看幅度而已還要看整個這個條帳的這個頻率啊這個頻率上在2021到2023的時候你看小於半年39.7塊4成半年到一年是35.2這都是央行的報告加總起來是75%\n414285\t431710\t就是說商品的這個調降的幅度高達7乘5那個週期頻率呢從原來兩年調升變半年變一年我覺得那個總裁這個感受上是非常對民眾來說是切身的感受你認為有什麼方法來處理啊\n432410\t445356\t我覺得委員是講的沒有錯不過這個就是我們的報告裡面的你引用那是沒有錯但是我跟委員報告你如果說仔細再觀察一下事實上我們的\n447677\t453403\t十七項的重要民生物資事實上也是持續在下來的沒有我現在那個總裁不好意思我給你打斷我在講東你在講西我們都在講物價數字是這個部分好那你要講物價我再講一個立法院的三寶的雞排價格就好過往呢立法院的雞排要占個五塊錢啊\n469561\t474170\t我們要超過60個月後來變41個月後來37個月最近兩年都調帳都是在14個月就調帳了\n480543\t499729\t就是說從一個總體的你的數字還有整個立法院的單一的這個個案來看比較的話都是這種呈現啊那我問你的是solution不是你跟我比較其他的現象這個問題在民眾當中的感受就壓力很大啊這個我同意委員的看法啦\n499889\t522317\t也就是說民眾對於時常購買的啊因為他跟民生有關所以他他對但是我要跟我要跟委員報告就是說事實上呢全球的中央銀行呢他是看整體的啦我當然知道他不是說看一個雞排是多少那蛋價是多少他不會的\n522657\t546819\t我好像要問主計長才對齁 不應該問你齁 但是問題是說 我是說這個趨勢上在平穩物價的部分啦 限制上的物價平率上的問題剛剛我也跟委員報告就是說事實上17項的民生物品也是在持續在下降啊 那你那個就是說每月每月至少購買的次數比較多的 那事實上它也是一直在下降啊\n547887\t550828\t總裁金龍、經濟部率台灣電力股份有限公司就電價大漲及央行升息\n577833\t601269\t委員長市長這次是調帳好像看起來是逼不得已以前呢過去我們財政委員會所看到的那個稅基剩餘有撥補500億到台電嘛是第二次撥補1000億嘛沒有第二次還沒有第二次還沒有第二次有預期嗎我們有跟院裡面做報告對我知道第二次要1000啦我的目標價是1000這樣500加10001500然後再加上調這樣有解決了這個\n605451\t618962\t過去政策負擔台電所造成的虧損的擬評了嗎?公委員報告就是說那個500億是去年的我們現在要處理的是2024年的原來我這樣子講就是1000億給我們再加上電價的調整那我也會努力來\n625708\t626749\t兩年以後才會損益打平\n640598\t666763\t我跟委員報告其實就要漲兩年之後你的損益可以打很多國家的電價我這樣子說就是很多國家的電價你這樣我可以理解啦我沒有懷疑你漲啦我是說我只是想要知道說你漲的這個效果漲成這樣子有沒有達到預期的目標當初他的政策負擔有沒有達成他的虧損有達到損益平衡沒有應該是接近可以損益不會有像去年這樣子虧損幅度這麼大也就是說你這兩年當中可以把\n667643\t693204\t那個漲價之後可以創造多少盈餘我就這樣問您好了還不至於創造盈餘但是可以創造創造增加多少收入600多億在今年2024年可以增加600多億那明年可以增加600多億總共增加1200多億然後再加上撥補1500億然後加起來剛好是2700多億就可以打平過去政策的負擔是不是委員你剛才講的已經兩年了對兩年\n695085\t720254\t現在我們算的年度你要贏虧就是一定是一年一年我說你的政策負擔也是累積而來我算總數啦但是補助的只有一年他沒有年年有所以要算只能夠算電價的調整沒有辦法算補助所以你今年的電價調整可以讓台電增加六百多億的收入就是九個月對九個月六百多那九個月到明年的話那就增加更多啦八百一年八百那就這兩年可以增加大概一千五嘛對不對\n722543\t745731\t就差不多了嗎?沒有,我就要問這個問題,原因是說你短期內就不會再漲了,是不是啦?我這樣子講,我們現在的價格...兩年之內就不會再漲了吧?這個事情不是很簡單的算法,就是他有沒有到這一次調漲有沒有到他的成本價,還沒有完全達到成本價。如果沒有達到成本價的話,本席最後給你一個建議,真的不要再漲了。\n748792\t761176\t我建議你還是像今年的股市的這種表現方式稅基剩餘還是有可能我覺得建議你是朝向這個部分來進行那個我們會讓電價委員會來討論好不好這明年來討論你要到行政院啦謝謝賴會員賴委員\n","txt":"有請楊金龍、楊總裁請楊總裁\n國文早總裁好總裁剛剛本席在聆聽你在回答的這個內容當中有特別強調之所以會有這一個升息這一個半碼的這個部分主要是來自於這幾年我們的CPI都超過2%以上特別是前年到2.95去年是2.49\n您在理事會之後也特別強調說今後的實質負利率會朝趨正的方向來進行但雖然現在還是負利率所以我覺得你特別提到這一點的部分是不是有考量到除了物價的因素之外實質的負利率也會造成定存期\n我想報委員就是說一個投資人他的一個對於風險的承受程度\n他會有他自己的考量是那麼定存有定存他的那你是在談個金我是在跟你談總金啊不那也一樣啊就是說在整個金融穩定上面一大頓一窩蜂就像你說的那個陽權現象的部分啊對啊你是不是有考慮到這一點啊本席在救教於你你說我們升息是不是對對有沒有考慮到這一點我想不是升息的整個的主要的還是通膨啦\n還是通膨所以說還是CPI的部分對還是CPI的部分可是你如果說CPI的部分那本席就較於你的CPI的部分那剛剛你在回答這相關委員的時候在CPI的部分當中我們就以為啦這個我們如果升息的話\n照說這一個我們的台幣應該也會跟著升值可是你說因為相對美元的強勢的關係可是相對美元強勢的關係我們的台幣不斷的走貶那到今天早上的時候開盤的時候還跑到31.96也就將近32塊\n那你若台幣走貶的情況底下你覺得對於這個進口物價會相對上漲的部分的話是不是對CPI更加不利我想第一個剛剛委員講就是說新台幣貶值主要是美元的強勢那美元強勢你看看韓元的利益都比我們高這個你剛才講過你就不用再講了我是說對我們的通膨是不是會有加劇的效果嗎一般而言嗎也不會\n我跟委員報告我們從我們的美元計價的進口物價跟新台幣計價的那個進口物價指數都是負的已經好幾個月都是負的\n都是負的?都是負的。那是美元吶?沒有沒有,當用美元計價的也是負。用新台幣計價的也是負的。所以說相對進口還是便宜?還是便宜。所以說這個部分的費率走貶沒有什麼關係?不會。所以現階段你就說有可能的狀況就是主計處理所所談到的這個國際原物料的這個部分還是居高不下的因素?\n還有另外媒體有可能不斷的這個造成這一種報導或者是相對有炒作的一種現象的情況底下會產生預期心理對啦還主要是預期嘛那問題是在於說同樣是可以用預期的方式為什麼美國的FDA的部分偶爾都放一下說他預期可能會降息他預期可能會升息可是對於這個我們總裁的口中好像也聽不到什麼預期\n我意思是說你有沒有可能用預期來打預期啊我跟委員報告就是說美國他的預期他也有點證圖點證圖就是他的預期啦就是他的ful guidance就是說他的一個他的那個ful guidance但是呢他的ful guidance是在他QE的時候所實行的事實上呢\n有幾次很明白喔 總裁有幾次很明白喔他預計比如講他說要降三波這個很清楚啊您的報告當中啊您的報告當中寫的都相對非常的保守就你會持續去觀察對對對對對你只是寫第二點持續觀察我想這樣是才對的啦你的第一點你的第一點呢你要肯定穩定物價小組進行很多措施有效果\n我沒有說完全沒有用我沒有說完全沒有用那也是用到緊繃了嘛所以說\n那個有用不是說沒有用但是還是還是上升嘛所以說也是因為這樣上升你才會升息不是嗎而且總裁你升息不只一次欸那當然那我們升息的弧度還是相對穩定還是相對溫和的啊你知道你就溫和漸進的方式嘛但是站在民眾的角度來看的話喔老實說我還是建議說你可以稍微\n稍微放開一點,可以用預期的方式來壓制預期。或許這個是一個不錯的方式啦。是啦。你考慮一下。我說你的發言沒有被預期的嘛。你要考慮一下。可以用預期的方式來對抗預期。好,那是很好的建議。謝謝你的肯定啦。那另外一個部分喔。\n為什麼這種預期的預期會這樣子的令人家產生沒有辦法預期的CPI你知道嗎你去看一下你自己在報告當中所寫的核心的品項當中過去6年在半年內調整就佔5.9%兩年以上是35.8%也就是說以前在CPI在調漲的時候物價在調漲的時候是緩緩的\n為什麼大家會覺得加劇呢?因為CPI不是只有看幅度而已還要看整個這個條帳的這個頻率啊這個頻率上在2021到2023的時候你看小於半年39.7塊4成半年到一年是35.2這都是央行的報告加總起來是75%\n就是說商品的這個調降的幅度高達7乘5那個週期頻率呢從原來兩年調升變半年變一年我覺得那個總裁這個感受上是非常對民眾來說是切身的感受你認為有什麼方法來處理啊\n我覺得委員是講的沒有錯不過這個就是我們的報告裡面的你引用那是沒有錯但是我跟委員報告你如果說仔細再觀察一下事實上我們的\n十七項的重要民生物資事實上也是持續在下來的沒有我現在那個總裁不好意思我給你打斷我在講東你在講西我們都在講物價數字是這個部分好那你要講物價我再講一個立法院的三寶的雞排價格就好過往呢立法院的雞排要占個五塊錢啊\n我們要超過60個月後來變41個月後來37個月最近兩年都調帳都是在14個月就調帳了\n就是說從一個總體的你的數字還有整個立法院的單一的這個個案來看比較的話都是這種呈現啊那我問你的是solution不是你跟我比較其他的現象這個問題在民眾當中的感受就壓力很大啊這個我同意委員的看法啦\n也就是說民眾對於時常購買的啊因為他跟民生有關所以他他對但是我要跟我要跟委員報告就是說事實上呢全球的中央銀行呢他是看整體的啦我當然知道他不是說看一個雞排是多少那蛋價是多少他不會的\n我好像要問主計長才對齁 不應該問你齁 但是問題是說 我是說這個趨勢上在平穩物價的部分啦 限制上的物價平率上的問題剛剛我也跟委員報告就是說事實上17項的民生物品也是在持續在下降啊 那你那個就是說每月每月至少購買的次數比較多的 那事實上它也是一直在下降啊\n總裁金龍、經濟部率台灣電力股份有限公司就電價大漲及央行升息\n委員長市長這次是調帳好像看起來是逼不得已以前呢過去我們財政委員會所看到的那個稅基剩餘有撥補500億到台電嘛是第二次撥補1000億嘛沒有第二次還沒有第二次還沒有第二次有預期嗎我們有跟院裡面做報告對我知道第二次要1000啦我的目標價是1000這樣500加10001500然後再加上調這樣有解決了這個\n過去政策負擔台電所造成的虧損的擬評了嗎?公委員報告就是說那個500億是去年的我們現在要處理的是2024年的原來我這樣子講就是1000億給我們再加上電價的調整那我也會努力來\n兩年以後才會損益打平\n我跟委員報告其實就要漲兩年之後你的損益可以打很多國家的電價我這樣子說就是很多國家的電價你這樣我可以理解啦我沒有懷疑你漲啦我是說我只是想要知道說你漲的這個效果漲成這樣子有沒有達到預期的目標當初他的政策負擔有沒有達成他的虧損有達到損益平衡沒有應該是接近可以損益不會有像去年這樣子虧損幅度這麼大也就是說你這兩年當中可以把\n那個漲價之後可以創造多少盈餘我就這樣問您好了還不至於創造盈餘但是可以創造創造增加多少收入600多億在今年2024年可以增加600多億那明年可以增加600多億總共增加1200多億然後再加上撥補1500億然後加起來剛好是2700多億就可以打平過去政策的負擔是不是委員你剛才講的已經兩年了對兩年\n現在我們算的年度你要贏虧就是一定是一年一年我說你的政策負擔也是累積而來我算總數啦但是補助的只有一年他沒有年年有所以要算只能夠算電價的調整沒有辦法算補助所以你今年的電價調整可以讓台電增加六百多億的收入就是九個月對九個月六百多那九個月到明年的話那就增加更多啦八百一年八百那就這兩年可以增加大概一千五嘛對不對\n就差不多了嗎?沒有,我就要問這個問題,原因是說你短期內就不會再漲了,是不是啦?我這樣子講,我們現在的價格...兩年之內就不會再漲了吧?這個事情不是很簡單的算法,就是他有沒有到這一次調漲有沒有到他的成本價,還沒有完全達到成本價。如果沒有達到成本價的話,本席最後給你一個建議,真的不要再漲了。\n我建議你還是像今年的股市的這種表現方式稅基剩餘還是有可能我覺得建議你是朝向這個部分來進行那個我們會讓電價委員會來討論好不好這明年來討論你要到行政院啦謝謝賴會員賴委員\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.546 --> 00:01.269\n有請楊金龍、楊總裁請楊總裁\n\n00:11.543 --> 00:31.662\n國文早總裁好總裁剛剛本席在聆聽你在回答的這個內容當中有特別強調之所以會有這一個升息這一個半碼的這個部分主要是來自於這幾年我們的CPI都超過2%以上特別是前年到2.95去年是2.49\n\n00:36.026 --> 00:58.392\n您在理事會之後也特別強調說今後的實質負利率會朝趨正的方向來進行但雖然現在還是負利率所以我覺得你特別提到這一點的部分是不是有考量到除了物價的因素之外實質的負利率也會造成定存期\n\n00:58.772 --> 01:01.655\n我想報委員就是說一個投資人他的一個對於風險的承受程度\n\n01:18.991 --> 01:45.402\n他會有他自己的考量是那麼定存有定存他的那你是在談個金我是在跟你談總金啊不那也一樣啊就是說在整個金融穩定上面一大頓一窩蜂就像你說的那個陽權現象的部分啊對啊你是不是有考慮到這一點啊本席在救教於你你說我們升息是不是對對有沒有考慮到這一點我想不是升息的整個的主要的還是通膨啦\n\n01:46.002 --> 02:00.774\n還是通膨所以說還是CPI的部分對還是CPI的部分可是你如果說CPI的部分那本席就較於你的CPI的部分那剛剛你在回答這相關委員的時候在CPI的部分當中我們就以為啦這個我們如果升息的話\n\n02:01.354 --> 02:14.462\n照說這一個我們的台幣應該也會跟著升值可是你說因為相對美元的強勢的關係可是相對美元強勢的關係我們的台幣不斷的走貶那到今天早上的時候開盤的時候還跑到31.96也就將近32塊\n\n02:19.345 --> 02:41.050\n那你若台幣走貶的情況底下你覺得對於這個進口物價會相對上漲的部分的話是不是對CPI更加不利我想第一個剛剛委員講就是說新台幣貶值主要是美元的強勢那美元強勢你看看韓元的利益都比我們高這個你剛才講過你就不用再講了我是說對我們的通膨是不是會有加劇的效果嗎一般而言嗎也不會\n\n02:46.571 --> 02:51.033\n我跟委員報告我們從我們的美元計價的進口物價跟新台幣計價的那個進口物價指數都是負的已經好幾個月都是負的\n\n03:05.250 --> 03:27.282\n都是負的?都是負的。那是美元吶?沒有沒有,當用美元計價的也是負。用新台幣計價的也是負的。所以說相對進口還是便宜?還是便宜。所以說這個部分的費率走貶沒有什麼關係?不會。所以現階段你就說有可能的狀況就是主計處理所所談到的這個國際原物料的這個部分還是居高不下的因素?\n\n03:27.782 --> 03:55.887\n還有另外媒體有可能不斷的這個造成這一種報導或者是相對有炒作的一種現象的情況底下會產生預期心理對啦還主要是預期嘛那問題是在於說同樣是可以用預期的方式為什麼美國的FDA的部分偶爾都放一下說他預期可能會降息他預期可能會升息可是對於這個我們總裁的口中好像也聽不到什麼預期\n\n03:57.355 --> 04:23.394\n我意思是說你有沒有可能用預期來打預期啊我跟委員報告就是說美國他的預期他也有點證圖點證圖就是他的預期啦就是他的fulguidance就是說他的一個他的那個fulguidance但是呢他的fulguidance是在他QE的時候所實行的事實上呢\n\n04:26.455 --> 04:51.560\n有幾次很明白喔總裁有幾次很明白喔他預計比如講他說要降三波這個很清楚啊您的報告當中啊您的報告當中寫的都相對非常的保守就你會持續去觀察對對對對對你只是寫第二點持續觀察我想這樣是才對的啦你的第一點你的第一點呢你要肯定穩定物價小組進行很多措施有效果\n\n04:51.860 --> 04:54.082\n我沒有說完全沒有用我沒有說完全沒有用那也是用到緊繃了嘛所以說\n\n05:11.775 --> 05:39.857\n那個有用不是說沒有用但是還是還是上升嘛所以說也是因為這樣上升你才會升息不是嗎而且總裁你升息不只一次欸那當然那我們升息的弧度還是相對穩定還是相對溫和的啊你知道你就溫和漸進的方式嘛但是站在民眾的角度來看的話喔老實說我還是建議說你可以稍微\n\n05:40.638 --> 06:03.081\n稍微放開一點,可以用預期的方式來壓制預期。或許這個是一個不錯的方式啦。是啦。你考慮一下。我說你的發言沒有被預期的嘛。你要考慮一下。可以用預期的方式來對抗預期。好,那是很好的建議。謝謝你的肯定啦。那另外一個部分喔。\n\n06:03.901 --> 06:21.206\n為什麼這種預期的預期會這樣子的令人家產生沒有辦法預期的CPI你知道嗎你去看一下你自己在報告當中所寫的核心的品項當中過去6年在半年內調整就佔5.9%兩年以上是35.8%也就是說以前在CPI在調漲的時候物價在調漲的時候是緩緩的\n\n06:30.949 --> 06:48.902\n為什麼大家會覺得加劇呢?因為CPI不是只有看幅度而已還要看整個這個條帳的這個頻率啊這個頻率上在2021到2023的時候你看小於半年39.7塊4成半年到一年是35.2這都是央行的報告加總起來是75%\n\n06:54.285 --> 07:11.710\n就是說商品的這個調降的幅度高達7乘5那個週期頻率呢從原來兩年調升變半年變一年我覺得那個總裁這個感受上是非常對民眾來說是切身的感受你認為有什麼方法來處理啊\n\n07:12.410 --> 07:25.356\n我覺得委員是講的沒有錯不過這個就是我們的報告裡面的你引用那是沒有錯但是我跟委員報告你如果說仔細再觀察一下事實上我們的\n\n07:27.677 --> 07:33.403\n十七項的重要民生物資事實上也是持續在下來的沒有我現在那個總裁不好意思我給你打斷我在講東你在講西我們都在講物價數字是這個部分好那你要講物價我再講一個立法院的三寶的雞排價格就好過往呢立法院的雞排要占個五塊錢啊\n\n07:49.561 --> 07:54.170\n我們要超過60個月後來變41個月後來37個月最近兩年都調帳都是在14個月就調帳了\n\n08:00.543 --> 08:19.729\n就是說從一個總體的你的數字還有整個立法院的單一的這個個案來看比較的話都是這種呈現啊那我問你的是solution不是你跟我比較其他的現象這個問題在民眾當中的感受就壓力很大啊這個我同意委員的看法啦\n\n08:19.889 --> 08:42.317\n也就是說民眾對於時常購買的啊因為他跟民生有關所以他他對但是我要跟我要跟委員報告就是說事實上呢全球的中央銀行呢他是看整體的啦我當然知道他不是說看一個雞排是多少那蛋價是多少他不會的\n\n08:42.657 --> 09:06.819\n我好像要問主計長才對齁不應該問你齁但是問題是說我是說這個趨勢上在平穩物價的部分啦限制上的物價平率上的問題剛剛我也跟委員報告就是說事實上17項的民生物品也是在持續在下降啊那你那個就是說每月每月至少購買的次數比較多的那事實上它也是一直在下降啊\n\n09:07.887 --> 09:10.828\n總裁金龍、經濟部率台灣電力股份有限公司就電價大漲及央行升息\n\n09:37.833 --> 10:01.269\n委員長市長這次是調帳好像看起來是逼不得已以前呢過去我們財政委員會所看到的那個稅基剩餘有撥補500億到台電嘛是第二次撥補1000億嘛沒有第二次還沒有第二次還沒有第二次有預期嗎我們有跟院裡面做報告對我知道第二次要1000啦我的目標價是1000這樣500加10001500然後再加上調這樣有解決了這個\n\n10:05.451 --> 10:18.962\n過去政策負擔台電所造成的虧損的擬評了嗎?公委員報告就是說那個500億是去年的我們現在要處理的是2024年的原來我這樣子講就是1000億給我們再加上電價的調整那我也會努力來\n\n10:25.708 --> 10:26.749\n兩年以後才會損益打平\n\n10:40.598 --> 11:06.763\n我跟委員報告其實就要漲兩年之後你的損益可以打很多國家的電價我這樣子說就是很多國家的電價你這樣我可以理解啦我沒有懷疑你漲啦我是說我只是想要知道說你漲的這個效果漲成這樣子有沒有達到預期的目標當初他的政策負擔有沒有達成他的虧損有達到損益平衡沒有應該是接近可以損益不會有像去年這樣子虧損幅度這麼大也就是說你這兩年當中可以把\n\n11:07.643 --> 11:33.204\n那個漲價之後可以創造多少盈餘我就這樣問您好了還不至於創造盈餘但是可以創造創造增加多少收入600多億在今年2024年可以增加600多億那明年可以增加600多億總共增加1200多億然後再加上撥補1500億然後加起來剛好是2700多億就可以打平過去政策的負擔是不是委員你剛才講的已經兩年了對兩年\n\n11:35.085 --> 12:00.254\n現在我們算的年度你要贏虧就是一定是一年一年我說你的政策負擔也是累積而來我算總數啦但是補助的只有一年他沒有年年有所以要算只能夠算電價的調整沒有辦法算補助所以你今年的電價調整可以讓台電增加六百多億的收入就是九個月對九個月六百多那九個月到明年的話那就增加更多啦八百一年八百那就這兩年可以增加大概一千五嘛對不對\n\n12:02.543 --> 12:25.731\n就差不多了嗎?沒有,我就要問這個問題,原因是說你短期內就不會再漲了,是不是啦?我這樣子講,我們現在的價格...兩年之內就不會再漲了吧?這個事情不是很簡單的算法,就是他有沒有到這一次調漲有沒有到他的成本價,還沒有完全達到成本價。如果沒有達到成本價的話,本席最後給你一個建議,真的不要再漲了。\n\n12:28.792 --> 12:41.176\n我建議你還是像今年的股市的這種表現方式稅基剩餘還是有可能我覺得建議你是朝向這個部分來進行那個我們會讓電價委員會來討論好不好這明年來討論你要到行政院啦謝謝賴會員賴委員\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.546,"end":1.269,"text":"有請楊金龍、楊總裁請楊總裁"},{"start":11.543,"end":31.662,"text":"國文早總裁好總裁剛剛本席在聆聽你在回答的這個內容當中有特別強調之所以會有這一個升息這一個半碼的這個部分主要是來自於這幾年我們的CPI都超過2%以上特別是前年到2.95去年是2.49"},{"start":36.026,"end":58.392,"text":"您在理事會之後也特別強調說今後的實質負利率會朝趨正的方向來進行但雖然現在還是負利率所以我覺得你特別提到這一點的部分是不是有考量到除了物價的因素之外實質的負利率也會造成定存期"},{"start":58.772,"end":61.655,"text":"我想報委員就是說一個投資人他的一個對於風險的承受程度"},{"start":78.991,"end":105.402,"text":"他會有他自己的考量是那麼定存有定存他的那你是在談個金我是在跟你談總金啊不那也一樣啊就是說在整個金融穩定上面一大頓一窩蜂就像你說的那個陽權現象的部分啊對啊你是不是有考慮到這一點啊本席在救教於你你說我們升息是不是對對有沒有考慮到這一點我想不是升息的整個的主要的還是通膨啦"},{"start":106.002,"end":120.774,"text":"還是通膨所以說還是CPI的部分對還是CPI的部分可是你如果說CPI的部分那本席就較於你的CPI的部分那剛剛你在回答這相關委員的時候在CPI的部分當中我們就以為啦這個我們如果升息的話"},{"start":121.354,"end":134.462,"text":"照說這一個我們的台幣應該也會跟著升值可是你說因為相對美元的強勢的關係可是相對美元強勢的關係我們的台幣不斷的走貶那到今天早上的時候開盤的時候還跑到31.96也就將近32塊"},{"start":139.345,"end":161.05,"text":"那你若台幣走貶的情況底下你覺得對於這個進口物價會相對上漲的部分的話是不是對CPI更加不利我想第一個剛剛委員講就是說新台幣貶值主要是美元的強勢那美元強勢你看看韓元的利益都比我們高這個你剛才講過你就不用再講了我是說對我們的通膨是不是會有加劇的效果嗎一般而言嗎也不會"},{"start":166.571,"end":171.033,"text":"我跟委員報告我們從我們的美元計價的進口物價跟新台幣計價的那個進口物價指數都是負的已經好幾個月都是負的"},{"start":185.25,"end":207.282,"text":"都是負的?都是負的。那是美元吶?沒有沒有,當用美元計價的也是負。用新台幣計價的也是負的。所以說相對進口還是便宜?還是便宜。所以說這個部分的費率走貶沒有什麼關係?不會。所以現階段你就說有可能的狀況就是主計處理所所談到的這個國際原物料的這個部分還是居高不下的因素?"},{"start":207.782,"end":235.887,"text":"還有另外媒體有可能不斷的這個造成這一種報導或者是相對有炒作的一種現象的情況底下會產生預期心理對啦還主要是預期嘛那問題是在於說同樣是可以用預期的方式為什麼美國的FDA的部分偶爾都放一下說他預期可能會降息他預期可能會升息可是對於這個我們總裁的口中好像也聽不到什麼預期"},{"start":237.355,"end":263.394,"text":"我意思是說你有沒有可能用預期來打預期啊我跟委員報告就是說美國他的預期他也有點證圖點證圖就是他的預期啦就是他的ful guidance就是說他的一個他的那個ful guidance但是呢他的ful guidance是在他QE的時候所實行的事實上呢"},{"start":266.455,"end":291.56,"text":"有幾次很明白喔 總裁有幾次很明白喔他預計比如講他說要降三波這個很清楚啊您的報告當中啊您的報告當中寫的都相對非常的保守就你會持續去觀察對對對對對你只是寫第二點持續觀察我想這樣是才對的啦你的第一點你的第一點呢你要肯定穩定物價小組進行很多措施有效果"},{"start":291.86,"end":294.082,"text":"我沒有說完全沒有用我沒有說完全沒有用那也是用到緊繃了嘛所以說"},{"start":311.775,"end":339.857,"text":"那個有用不是說沒有用但是還是還是上升嘛所以說也是因為這樣上升你才會升息不是嗎而且總裁你升息不只一次欸那當然那我們升息的弧度還是相對穩定還是相對溫和的啊你知道你就溫和漸進的方式嘛但是站在民眾的角度來看的話喔老實說我還是建議說你可以稍微"},{"start":340.638,"end":363.081,"text":"稍微放開一點,可以用預期的方式來壓制預期。或許這個是一個不錯的方式啦。是啦。你考慮一下。我說你的發言沒有被預期的嘛。你要考慮一下。可以用預期的方式來對抗預期。好,那是很好的建議。謝謝你的肯定啦。那另外一個部分喔。"},{"start":363.901,"end":381.206,"text":"為什麼這種預期的預期會這樣子的令人家產生沒有辦法預期的CPI你知道嗎你去看一下你自己在報告當中所寫的核心的品項當中過去6年在半年內調整就佔5.9%兩年以上是35.8%也就是說以前在CPI在調漲的時候物價在調漲的時候是緩緩的"},{"start":390.949,"end":408.902,"text":"為什麼大家會覺得加劇呢?因為CPI不是只有看幅度而已還要看整個這個條帳的這個頻率啊這個頻率上在2021到2023的時候你看小於半年39.7塊4成半年到一年是35.2這都是央行的報告加總起來是75%"},{"start":414.285,"end":431.71,"text":"就是說商品的這個調降的幅度高達7乘5那個週期頻率呢從原來兩年調升變半年變一年我覺得那個總裁這個感受上是非常對民眾來說是切身的感受你認為有什麼方法來處理啊"},{"start":432.41,"end":445.356,"text":"我覺得委員是講的沒有錯不過這個就是我們的報告裡面的你引用那是沒有錯但是我跟委員報告你如果說仔細再觀察一下事實上我們的"},{"start":447.677,"end":453.403,"text":"十七項的重要民生物資事實上也是持續在下來的沒有我現在那個總裁不好意思我給你打斷我在講東你在講西我們都在講物價數字是這個部分好那你要講物價我再講一個立法院的三寶的雞排價格就好過往呢立法院的雞排要占個五塊錢啊"},{"start":469.561,"end":474.17,"text":"我們要超過60個月後來變41個月後來37個月最近兩年都調帳都是在14個月就調帳了"},{"start":480.543,"end":499.729,"text":"就是說從一個總體的你的數字還有整個立法院的單一的這個個案來看比較的話都是這種呈現啊那我問你的是solution不是你跟我比較其他的現象這個問題在民眾當中的感受就壓力很大啊這個我同意委員的看法啦"},{"start":499.889,"end":522.317,"text":"也就是說民眾對於時常購買的啊因為他跟民生有關所以他他對但是我要跟我要跟委員報告就是說事實上呢全球的中央銀行呢他是看整體的啦我當然知道他不是說看一個雞排是多少那蛋價是多少他不會的"},{"start":522.657,"end":546.819,"text":"我好像要問主計長才對齁 不應該問你齁 但是問題是說 我是說這個趨勢上在平穩物價的部分啦 限制上的物價平率上的問題剛剛我也跟委員報告就是說事實上17項的民生物品也是在持續在下降啊 那你那個就是說每月每月至少購買的次數比較多的 那事實上它也是一直在下降啊"},{"start":547.887,"end":550.828,"text":"總裁金龍、經濟部率台灣電力股份有限公司就電價大漲及央行升息"},{"start":577.833,"end":601.269,"text":"委員長市長這次是調帳好像看起來是逼不得已以前呢過去我們財政委員會所看到的那個稅基剩餘有撥補500億到台電嘛是第二次撥補1000億嘛沒有第二次還沒有第二次還沒有第二次有預期嗎我們有跟院裡面做報告對我知道第二次要1000啦我的目標價是1000這樣500加10001500然後再加上調這樣有解決了這個"},{"start":605.451,"end":618.962,"text":"過去政策負擔台電所造成的虧損的擬評了嗎?公委員報告就是說那個500億是去年的我們現在要處理的是2024年的原來我這樣子講就是1000億給我們再加上電價的調整那我也會努力來"},{"start":625.708,"end":626.749,"text":"兩年以後才會損益打平"},{"start":640.598,"end":666.763,"text":"我跟委員報告其實就要漲兩年之後你的損益可以打很多國家的電價我這樣子說就是很多國家的電價你這樣我可以理解啦我沒有懷疑你漲啦我是說我只是想要知道說你漲的這個效果漲成這樣子有沒有達到預期的目標當初他的政策負擔有沒有達成他的虧損有達到損益平衡沒有應該是接近可以損益不會有像去年這樣子虧損幅度這麼大也就是說你這兩年當中可以把"},{"start":667.643,"end":693.204,"text":"那個漲價之後可以創造多少盈餘我就這樣問您好了還不至於創造盈餘但是可以創造創造增加多少收入600多億在今年2024年可以增加600多億那明年可以增加600多億總共增加1200多億然後再加上撥補1500億然後加起來剛好是2700多億就可以打平過去政策的負擔是不是委員你剛才講的已經兩年了對兩年"},{"start":695.085,"end":720.254,"text":"現在我們算的年度你要贏虧就是一定是一年一年我說你的政策負擔也是累積而來我算總數啦但是補助的只有一年他沒有年年有所以要算只能夠算電價的調整沒有辦法算補助所以你今年的電價調整可以讓台電增加六百多億的收入就是九個月對九個月六百多那九個月到明年的話那就增加更多啦八百一年八百那就這兩年可以增加大概一千五嘛對不對"},{"start":722.543,"end":745.731,"text":"就差不多了嗎?沒有,我就要問這個問題,原因是說你短期內就不會再漲了,是不是啦?我這樣子講,我們現在的價格...兩年之內就不會再漲了吧?這個事情不是很簡單的算法,就是他有沒有到這一次調漲有沒有到他的成本價,還沒有完全達到成本價。如果沒有達到成本價的話,本席最後給你一個建議,真的不要再漲了。"},{"start":748.792,"end":761.176,"text":"我建議你還是像今年的股市的這種表現方式稅基剩餘還是有可能我覺得建議你是朝向這個部分來進行那個我們會讓電價委員會來討論好不好這明年來討論你要到行政院啦謝謝賴會員賴委員"}]}}}}