{"id":152429,"url":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/152429","video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/d7e25ee5d31e1734920dfc5244807813a2603b6fafef9a002d94006c6d412c4ddd502cc2602e8e7f5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"王定宇","委員發言時間":"10:33:06 - 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\"他知道他侵略烏克蘭有可能被經濟制裁可能被逐出Swift將來在國際貿易交換的時候黃金的儲備可以增加貿易夥伴的信心所以他會提高他的儲備量俄羅斯大概是排第五名中國現在是排第六名\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 567.739, \"end\": 567.899, \"score\": 0.964}, {\"word\": \"知\", \"start\": 567.899, \"end\": 567.98, \"score\": 0.814}, {\"word\": \"道\", \"start\": 567.98, \"end\": 568.1, \"score\": 0.604}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 568.1, \"end\": 568.28, \"score\": 0.631}, {\"word\": \"侵\", \"start\": 568.28, \"end\": 568.42, \"score\": 0.971}, {\"word\": \"略\", \"start\": 568.42, \"end\": 568.68, \"score\": 0.837}, {\"word\": \"烏\"}, {\"word\": \"克\", \"start\": 568.68, \"end\": 569.281, \"score\": 0.826}, {\"word\": \"蘭\"}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 569.281, \"end\": 569.442, \"score\": 0.814}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 569.442, \"end\": 569.542, \"score\": 0.993}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 569.542, \"end\": 569.682, \"score\": 0.967}, {\"word\": \"被\", \"start\": 569.682, \"end\": 570.183, \"score\": 0.918}, {\"word\": \"經\"}, {\"word\": \"濟\"}, 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\"我們確定就是跟他國內的經濟下滑有很密切的關係至於委員：王定宇．跟臺海關於衝突．跟穩定他們大陸的目前的經濟狀況對於臺海的部分我們會密切的注意你們對臺海的評估是還不確定還是．我們在深入研究\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 598.892, \"end\": 599.453, \"score\": 0.888}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"確\"}, {\"word\": \"定\", \"start\": 599.453, \"end\": 599.673, \"score\": 0.997}, {\"word\": \"就\", \"start\": 599.673, \"end\": 599.813, \"score\": 0.971}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 599.813, \"end\": 599.973, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"跟\", \"start\": 599.973, \"end\": 600.194, \"score\": 0.961}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 600.194, \"end\": 600.954, \"score\": 0.939}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"內\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 600.954, \"end\": 601.575, \"score\": 0.935}, {\"word\": \"經\"}, {\"word\": \"濟\"}, {\"word\": \"下\", \"start\": 601.575, \"end\": 601.835, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"滑\", \"start\": 601.835, \"end\": 602.136, \"score\": 0.939}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 602.136, \"end\": 602.356, \"score\": 0.992}, {\"word\": \"很\", 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{\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 649.765, \"end\": 650.747, \"score\": 0.851}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"主\", \"start\": 650.747, \"end\": 650.887, \"score\": 0.951}, {\"word\": \"席\", \"start\": 650.887, \"end\": 650.907, \"score\": 0.842}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:00,129 --> 00:00:04,372\n好謝謝主席麻煩田次長請田次長王院長次長我們這幾年其實從臺美在臺灣關係法40週年以後臺美的關係一直往上走包含了這個北美協調會改成臺美美國事務委員會\n\n2\n00:00:27,059 --> 00:00:44,278\n然後在隔年我們發現我們跟歐洲的進展也非常的快所以在我們看到的是2021年不管是歐洲議會通過的報告書有關COVID-19或者2021年歐洲外交委員會\n\n3\n00:00:45,799 --> 00:01:04,837\n大概是第一次那麼高票通過臺歐盟政治關係及合作臺灣跟歐盟的政治關係及合作的報告及修正提案2021年還有歐洲議會通過臺歐這個臺灣歐盟政治關係及合作報告書等等那在\n\n4\n00:01:06,479 --> 00:01:23,714\n今年初,歐洲議會還通過《共同外交及安全政策》、《共同安全及防禦政策》兩個決議案關心著中國升高台海危機,片面用武力改變現狀。這個都是台歐之間正向的發展。\n\n5\n00:01:24,375 --> 00:01:52,397\n那今天我們談到的是習近平到歐洲的訪問坦白講一次的訪問看不出什麼大的改變特別是在法國各說各話他拜訪塞爾維亞跟匈牙利本來就是親中的國家反而是他沒有去義大利因為一帶一路可能生變他原來友好的國家縮小了他能去的地方減少了這個是從拜訪的形式上但本席比較關心的是在\n\n6\n00:01:54,401 --> 00:01:57,030\n今年歐盟的輪值國是匈牙利\n\n7\n00:01:58,516 --> 00:02:26,775\n唯一的隱憂在這裡也就是說習近平最近訪歐那不管是拜訪的國家的質跟量談話的內容看起來不若以往以前他在中東歐那時候講幾加幾啊就是26加1還多少加1忘記了就是把整個中東歐的國家加上中國產生一個極大的影響力那現在那一些氛圍呢都已經逆轉中國成了歐盟報告書裡面的威脅者\n\n8\n00:02:28,116 --> 00:02:53,290\n他們還特別注意到北極那邊來自中國的可能威脅所以本期今天第一個問題要請教的是匈牙利會輪值主席國那這個輪值對於台灣跟歐盟的進展跟發展有沒有什麼影響特別是在我們今年里存有提到我們預計想要簽訂經貿或投資協定這個在今年初\n\n9\n00:02:57,847 --> 00:03:13,014\n李存提到說臺歐洽簽經貿或投資協定這個是在今年1、2月的時候提到的所以請問市長有關信用壓力的部分你們怎麼評估這個可不可以請市長幫我回答一下市長請說是\n\n10\n00:03:16,496 --> 00:03:40,718\n匈牙利是今年下半年擔任歐盟部長理事會的輪值主席但是因為今年6月份會有歐洲議會的選舉新的歐盟的執委會也必須要在9月、10月才會成立因此其實匈牙利的輪值主席所可以造成的影響在今年下半年是相當受限的他就輪這半年嗎?對因為他們的輪值主席有什麼權力?\n\n11\n00:03:42,097 --> 00:04:04,272\n林主席其實最大的權力是他的議程的排序但是因為今年下半年歐洲的政治情勢的變遷所以我們認為說當然還是有他的權力但是因為歐洲的執委會跟議會都在重組過程當中今年我們大概站在台灣我們一個海島型的國家我們要特別注意周邊局勢的變化\n\n12\n00:04:04,992 --> 00:04:25,697\n日本有可能進行改選不管是6月或9月美國總統大選那歐盟的執委會還有歐洲議會在改選這一些都牽動著地緣政治甚至於獨裁國家用認知作戰去介入這些國家選舉都是我們要注意的所以我們還是回到我們今天的焦點就是說臺歐\n\n13\n00:04:26,917 --> 00:04:48,782\n我相信外交部在過去這兩三年應該有感受到臺歐的關係是大幅的改善特別在中歐因為東歐國家不喜歡被人家稱為東歐了他們就中歐國家所以目前你們評估休亞利這個輪值主席剛好遇到歐盟在改選執委會在改組所以這半年的輪值不會影響到agenda的設定你們判斷是這樣子嗎\n\n14\n00:04:49,950 --> 00:05:14,217\n因為新的執委會,歐盟的立法權是分享的那新的執委會形成之後會有新的執委會的agenda所以真正會主導未來幾年歐洲的這個政局的發展應該是下一屆執委會那你們有關注這些選舉的有沒有可能結構性的翻轉或改變目前看起來應該人民黨團在議會還是會佔多數所以民主派會比較多\n\n15\n00:05:15,757 --> 00:05:28,284\n基本上就是現在的權力結構不會有太大的改變有關這個臺歐洽簽經貿或投資協定這個事情是一個努力的方向還是有具體的進度\n\n16\n00:05:31,075 --> 00:05:51,042\n過去歐盟的回應曾經對我們的雙邊投資協定有正面的回應但是後來也失去了動能因此我們現在主要是要重新倡議恰遷比照我們跟美國的21世紀貿易協議失去動能的原因是什麼美國的21世紀貿易倡議有點像BTA\n\n17\n00:05:53,723 --> 00:06:20,122\n還有英國因為歐盟也是一個大的經濟體特別英國已經加入CPTPP所以歐盟的動作當然會影響到各國跟台灣的經貿你剛才講說原來有談到這個事情後來失去動能原因是什麼原因是因為歐中之間的全面投資協議因為有些議員提倡有關於新疆的人權問題種族滅絕等等的被中國制裁\n\n18\n00:06:20,862 --> 00:06:21,222\n副局長,我先講題目啦\n\n19\n00:06:41,007 --> 00:06:55,195\n最近有英國國防部所屬的智庫叫RUSI我不知道你有沒有注意到這個消息那這個是英國國防部官方的智庫他的副所長這個Jonathan他特別提到說\n\n20\n00:06:56,656 --> 00:07:24,769\n中國最近這半年到9個月左右的時間大量的購買黃金他指的是他央行就是說他們提高他們黃金囤積黃金的準備量那他裡面這個是英國國防支部提到說這個是不是因應台海可能的衝突或者南海可能的衝突那中國呢要將來因應西方國家經濟制裁的一個手段那管局有沒有注意到這個報告\n\n21\n00:07:27,405 --> 00:07:48,115\n有那他講的內容你們怎麼評估就是說中國其實長期持有黃金儲備量大概都在全球第6那前年的話是2100多噸到今年增加到2264噸所以他增加了儲備量的數額那這個增加呢\n\n22\n00:07:49,156 --> 00:08:03,332\n當然這是英國國防智庫提到的可能是因應他可能會有衝突或者在台海會冒進他先提早準備起來未來西方國家對他經濟制裁的時候他的經濟可以維穩我們國安局怎麼評估他們為什麼囤積黃金\n\n23\n00:08:06,146 --> 00:08:19,293\n這個跟國際局勢應該有關係就是有一些動盪的因素存在那一方面也是大陸的經濟的狀況可能不是那麼的理想人民會轉而搶購這個黃金\n\n24\n00:08:24,257 --> 00:08:40,975\n我在國安局的報告裡面好像沒有看到這一塊反而在英國的國防部的智庫看到這一塊就是說我們一般學總體經濟的當一個國家的政府、央行提高黃金的儲備量其實兩個主要原因一個是避險另外一個是信用\n\n25\n00:08:41,536 --> 00:09:04,730\n大概就這兩個作用必顯的話就是說在經濟不穩定不確定的時期強化對他經濟的穩定那中國又符合這個特色因為他們現在經濟不穩定很多大型的不動產公司跟金融的放貸公司都出問題第二個呢對國家貨幣求穩定就是避免大幅的往下走貶斯里蘭卡就一個例子他整個貨幣等於變廢紙\n\n26\n00:09:06,371 --> 00:09:27,139\n那中國央行提高這個黃金的儲備量看起來是要貨幣維穩也有可能另外一個是分散投資啊因為美金跟黃金是逆指標美金跌黃金就漲嘛所以這個是另外一個可能性那另外有一個就是作為避險當你有可能像俄羅斯\n\n27\n00:09:27,739 --> 00:09:44,042\n他知道他侵略烏克蘭有可能被經濟制裁可能被逐出Swift將來在國際貿易交換的時候黃金的儲備可以增加貿易夥伴的信心所以他會提高他的儲備量俄羅斯大概是排第五名中國現在是排第六名\n\n28\n00:09:45,003 --> 00:09:57,864\n那國安局有沒有去分析中國提高黃金儲備量的主要原因有沒有可能跟武力犯台有關還是他們國內經濟局勢下滑有關維穩有關你們的判斷是什麼\n\n29\n00:09:58,892 --> 00:10:17,371\n我們確定就是跟他國內的經濟下滑有很密切的關係至於委員：王定宇．跟臺海關於衝突．跟穩定他們大陸的目前的經濟狀況對於臺海的部分我們會密切的注意你們對臺海的評估是還不確定還是．我們在深入研究\n\n30\n00:10:18,252 --> 00:10:39,747\n英國這個是屬於國防部的半官方智庫我覺得他們評估了一些鎖本他的分析跟你的不一樣所以我們國安局作為我們國家最高的情報單位我覺得這個是一個很適合延期的題目因為它持續正在發生中那中國的民間的個體經濟大量的買黃金往國外跑那是另外一件事情所以到底是因為他們經濟維穩人民幣維穩\n\n31\n00:10:42,210 --> 00:10:50,907\n還是為將來可能發生衝突．被國際制裁來做準備．國安局有責任做好分析．是是是是委員謝謝主席\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n129\t4372\t好謝謝主席麻煩田次長請田次長王院長次長我們這幾年其實從臺美在臺灣關係法40週年以後臺美的關係一直往上走包含了這個北美協調會改成臺美美國事務委員會\n27059\t44278\t然後在隔年我們發現我們跟歐洲的進展也非常的快所以在我們看到的是2021年不管是歐洲議會通過的報告書有關COVID-19或者2021年歐洲外交委員會\n45799\t64837\t大概是第一次那麼高票通過臺歐盟政治關係及合作臺灣跟歐盟的政治關係及合作的報告及修正提案2021年還有歐洲議會通過臺歐這個臺灣歐盟政治關係及合作報告書等等那在\n66479\t83714\t今年初,歐洲議會還通過《共同外交及安全政策》、《共同安全及防禦政策》兩個決議案關心著中國升高台海危機,片面用武力改變現狀。這個都是台歐之間正向的發展。\n84375\t112397\t那今天我們談到的是習近平到歐洲的訪問坦白講一次的訪問看不出什麼大的改變特別是在法國各說各話他拜訪塞爾維亞跟匈牙利本來就是親中的國家反而是他沒有去義大利因為一帶一路可能生變他原來友好的國家縮小了他能去的地方減少了這個是從拜訪的形式上但本席比較關心的是在\n114401\t117030\t今年歐盟的輪值國是匈牙利\n118516\t146775\t唯一的隱憂在這裡也就是說習近平最近訪歐那不管是拜訪的國家的質跟量談話的內容看起來不若以往以前他在中東歐那時候講幾加幾啊就是26加1還多少加1忘記了就是把整個中東歐的國家加上中國產生一個極大的影響力那現在那一些氛圍呢都已經逆轉中國成了歐盟報告書裡面的威脅者\n148116\t173290\t他們還特別注意到北極那邊來自中國的可能威脅所以本期今天第一個問題要請教的是匈牙利會輪值主席國那這個輪值對於台灣跟歐盟的進展跟發展有沒有什麼影響特別是在我們今年里存有提到我們預計想要簽訂經貿或投資協定這個在今年初\n177847\t193014\t李存提到說臺歐洽簽經貿或投資協定這個是在今年1、2月的時候提到的所以請問市長有關信用壓力的部分你們怎麼評估這個可不可以請市長幫我回答一下市長請說是\n196496\t220718\t匈牙利是今年下半年擔任歐盟部長理事會的輪值主席但是因為今年6月份會有歐洲議會的選舉新的歐盟的執委會也必須要在9月、10月才會成立因此其實匈牙利的輪值主席所可以造成的影響在今年下半年是相當受限的他就輪這半年嗎?對因為他們的輪值主席有什麼權力?\n222097\t244272\t林主席其實最大的權力是他的議程的排序但是因為今年下半年歐洲的政治情勢的變遷所以我們認為說當然還是有他的權力但是因為歐洲的執委會跟議會都在重組過程當中今年我們大概站在台灣我們一個海島型的國家我們要特別注意周邊局勢的變化\n244992\t265697\t日本有可能進行改選不管是6月或9月美國總統大選那歐盟的執委會還有歐洲議會在改選這一些都牽動著地緣政治甚至於獨裁國家用認知作戰去介入這些國家選舉都是我們要注意的所以我們還是回到我們今天的焦點就是說臺歐\n266917\t288782\t我相信外交部在過去這兩三年應該有感受到臺歐的關係是大幅的改善特別在中歐因為東歐國家不喜歡被人家稱為東歐了他們就中歐國家所以目前你們評估休亞利這個輪值主席剛好遇到歐盟在改選執委會在改組所以這半年的輪值不會影響到agenda的設定你們判斷是這樣子嗎\n289950\t314217\t因為新的執委會,歐盟的立法權是分享的那新的執委會形成之後會有新的執委會的agenda所以真正會主導未來幾年歐洲的這個政局的發展應該是下一屆執委會那你們有關注這些選舉的有沒有可能結構性的翻轉或改變目前看起來應該人民黨團在議會還是會佔多數所以民主派會比較多\n315757\t328284\t基本上就是現在的權力結構不會有太大的改變有關這個臺歐洽簽經貿或投資協定這個事情是一個努力的方向還是有具體的進度\n331075\t351042\t過去歐盟的回應曾經對我們的雙邊投資協定有正面的回應但是後來也失去了動能因此我們現在主要是要重新倡議恰遷比照我們跟美國的21世紀貿易協議失去動能的原因是什麼美國的21世紀貿易倡議有點像BTA\n353723\t380122\t還有英國因為歐盟也是一個大的經濟體特別英國已經加入CPTPP所以歐盟的動作當然會影響到各國跟台灣的經貿你剛才講說原來有談到這個事情後來失去動能原因是什麼原因是因為歐中之間的全面投資協議因為有些議員提倡有關於新疆的人權問題種族滅絕等等的被中國制裁\n380862\t381222\t副局長,我先講題目啦\n401007\t415195\t最近有英國國防部所屬的智庫叫RUSI我不知道你有沒有注意到這個消息那這個是英國國防部官方的智庫他的副所長這個Jonathan他特別提到說\n416656\t444769\t中國最近這半年到9個月左右的時間大量的購買黃金他指的是他央行就是說他們提高他們黃金囤積黃金的準備量那他裡面這個是英國國防支部提到說這個是不是因應台海可能的衝突或者南海可能的衝突那中國呢要將來因應西方國家經濟制裁的一個手段那管局有沒有注意到這個報告\n447405\t468115\t有那他講的內容你們怎麼評估就是說中國其實長期持有黃金儲備量大概都在全球第6那前年的話是2100多噸到今年增加到2264噸所以他增加了儲備量的數額那這個增加呢\n469156\t483332\t當然這是英國國防智庫提到的可能是因應他可能會有衝突或者在台海會冒進他先提早準備起來未來西方國家對他經濟制裁的時候他的經濟可以維穩我們國安局怎麼評估他們為什麼囤積黃金\n486146\t499293\t這個跟國際局勢應該有關係就是有一些動盪的因素存在那一方面也是大陸的經濟的狀況可能不是那麼的理想人民會轉而搶購這個黃金\n504257\t520975\t我在國安局的報告裡面好像沒有看到這一塊反而在英國的國防部的智庫看到這一塊就是說我們一般學總體經濟的當一個國家的政府、央行提高黃金的儲備量其實兩個主要原因一個是避險另外一個是信用\n521536\t544730\t大概就這兩個作用必顯的話就是說在經濟不穩定不確定的時期強化對他經濟的穩定那中國又符合這個特色因為他們現在經濟不穩定很多大型的不動產公司跟金融的放貸公司都出問題第二個呢對國家貨幣求穩定就是避免大幅的往下走貶斯里蘭卡就一個例子他整個貨幣等於變廢紙\n546371\t567139\t那中國央行提高這個黃金的儲備量看起來是要貨幣維穩也有可能另外一個是分散投資啊因為美金跟黃金是逆指標美金跌黃金就漲嘛所以這個是另外一個可能性那另外有一個就是作為避險當你有可能像俄羅斯\n567739\t584042\t他知道他侵略烏克蘭有可能被經濟制裁可能被逐出Swift將來在國際貿易交換的時候黃金的儲備可以增加貿易夥伴的信心所以他會提高他的儲備量俄羅斯大概是排第五名中國現在是排第六名\n585003\t597864\t那國安局有沒有去分析中國提高黃金儲備量的主要原因有沒有可能跟武力犯台有關還是他們國內經濟局勢下滑有關維穩有關你們的判斷是什麼\n598892\t617371\t我們確定就是跟他國內的經濟下滑有很密切的關係至於委員：王定宇．跟臺海關於衝突．跟穩定他們大陸的目前的經濟狀況對於臺海的部分我們會密切的注意你們對臺海的評估是還不確定還是．我們在深入研究\n618252\t639747\t英國這個是屬於國防部的半官方智庫我覺得他們評估了一些鎖本他的分析跟你的不一樣所以我們國安局作為我們國家最高的情報單位我覺得這個是一個很適合延期的題目因為它持續正在發生中那中國的民間的個體經濟大量的買黃金往國外跑那是另外一件事情所以到底是因為他們經濟維穩人民幣維穩\n642210\t650907\t還是為將來可能發生衝突．被國際制裁來做準備．國安局有責任做好分析．是是是 是委員謝謝主席\n","txt":"好謝謝主席麻煩田次長請田次長王院長次長我們這幾年其實從臺美在臺灣關係法40週年以後臺美的關係一直往上走包含了這個北美協調會改成臺美美國事務委員會\n然後在隔年我們發現我們跟歐洲的進展也非常的快所以在我們看到的是2021年不管是歐洲議會通過的報告書有關COVID-19或者2021年歐洲外交委員會\n大概是第一次那麼高票通過臺歐盟政治關係及合作臺灣跟歐盟的政治關係及合作的報告及修正提案2021年還有歐洲議會通過臺歐這個臺灣歐盟政治關係及合作報告書等等那在\n今年初,歐洲議會還通過《共同外交及安全政策》、《共同安全及防禦政策》兩個決議案關心著中國升高台海危機,片面用武力改變現狀。這個都是台歐之間正向的發展。\n那今天我們談到的是習近平到歐洲的訪問坦白講一次的訪問看不出什麼大的改變特別是在法國各說各話他拜訪塞爾維亞跟匈牙利本來就是親中的國家反而是他沒有去義大利因為一帶一路可能生變他原來友好的國家縮小了他能去的地方減少了這個是從拜訪的形式上但本席比較關心的是在\n今年歐盟的輪值國是匈牙利\n唯一的隱憂在這裡也就是說習近平最近訪歐那不管是拜訪的國家的質跟量談話的內容看起來不若以往以前他在中東歐那時候講幾加幾啊就是26加1還多少加1忘記了就是把整個中東歐的國家加上中國產生一個極大的影響力那現在那一些氛圍呢都已經逆轉中國成了歐盟報告書裡面的威脅者\n他們還特別注意到北極那邊來自中國的可能威脅所以本期今天第一個問題要請教的是匈牙利會輪值主席國那這個輪值對於台灣跟歐盟的進展跟發展有沒有什麼影響特別是在我們今年里存有提到我們預計想要簽訂經貿或投資協定這個在今年初\n李存提到說臺歐洽簽經貿或投資協定這個是在今年1、2月的時候提到的所以請問市長有關信用壓力的部分你們怎麼評估這個可不可以請市長幫我回答一下市長請說是\n匈牙利是今年下半年擔任歐盟部長理事會的輪值主席但是因為今年6月份會有歐洲議會的選舉新的歐盟的執委會也必須要在9月、10月才會成立因此其實匈牙利的輪值主席所可以造成的影響在今年下半年是相當受限的他就輪這半年嗎?對因為他們的輪值主席有什麼權力?\n林主席其實最大的權力是他的議程的排序但是因為今年下半年歐洲的政治情勢的變遷所以我們認為說當然還是有他的權力但是因為歐洲的執委會跟議會都在重組過程當中今年我們大概站在台灣我們一個海島型的國家我們要特別注意周邊局勢的變化\n日本有可能進行改選不管是6月或9月美國總統大選那歐盟的執委會還有歐洲議會在改選這一些都牽動著地緣政治甚至於獨裁國家用認知作戰去介入這些國家選舉都是我們要注意的所以我們還是回到我們今天的焦點就是說臺歐\n我相信外交部在過去這兩三年應該有感受到臺歐的關係是大幅的改善特別在中歐因為東歐國家不喜歡被人家稱為東歐了他們就中歐國家所以目前你們評估休亞利這個輪值主席剛好遇到歐盟在改選執委會在改組所以這半年的輪值不會影響到agenda的設定你們判斷是這樣子嗎\n因為新的執委會,歐盟的立法權是分享的那新的執委會形成之後會有新的執委會的agenda所以真正會主導未來幾年歐洲的這個政局的發展應該是下一屆執委會那你們有關注這些選舉的有沒有可能結構性的翻轉或改變目前看起來應該人民黨團在議會還是會佔多數所以民主派會比較多\n基本上就是現在的權力結構不會有太大的改變有關這個臺歐洽簽經貿或投資協定這個事情是一個努力的方向還是有具體的進度\n過去歐盟的回應曾經對我們的雙邊投資協定有正面的回應但是後來也失去了動能因此我們現在主要是要重新倡議恰遷比照我們跟美國的21世紀貿易協議失去動能的原因是什麼美國的21世紀貿易倡議有點像BTA\n還有英國因為歐盟也是一個大的經濟體特別英國已經加入CPTPP所以歐盟的動作當然會影響到各國跟台灣的經貿你剛才講說原來有談到這個事情後來失去動能原因是什麼原因是因為歐中之間的全面投資協議因為有些議員提倡有關於新疆的人權問題種族滅絕等等的被中國制裁\n副局長,我先講題目啦\n最近有英國國防部所屬的智庫叫RUSI我不知道你有沒有注意到這個消息那這個是英國國防部官方的智庫他的副所長這個Jonathan他特別提到說\n中國最近這半年到9個月左右的時間大量的購買黃金他指的是他央行就是說他們提高他們黃金囤積黃金的準備量那他裡面這個是英國國防支部提到說這個是不是因應台海可能的衝突或者南海可能的衝突那中國呢要將來因應西方國家經濟制裁的一個手段那管局有沒有注意到這個報告\n有那他講的內容你們怎麼評估就是說中國其實長期持有黃金儲備量大概都在全球第6那前年的話是2100多噸到今年增加到2264噸所以他增加了儲備量的數額那這個增加呢\n當然這是英國國防智庫提到的可能是因應他可能會有衝突或者在台海會冒進他先提早準備起來未來西方國家對他經濟制裁的時候他的經濟可以維穩我們國安局怎麼評估他們為什麼囤積黃金\n這個跟國際局勢應該有關係就是有一些動盪的因素存在那一方面也是大陸的經濟的狀況可能不是那麼的理想人民會轉而搶購這個黃金\n我在國安局的報告裡面好像沒有看到這一塊反而在英國的國防部的智庫看到這一塊就是說我們一般學總體經濟的當一個國家的政府、央行提高黃金的儲備量其實兩個主要原因一個是避險另外一個是信用\n大概就這兩個作用必顯的話就是說在經濟不穩定不確定的時期強化對他經濟的穩定那中國又符合這個特色因為他們現在經濟不穩定很多大型的不動產公司跟金融的放貸公司都出問題第二個呢對國家貨幣求穩定就是避免大幅的往下走貶斯里蘭卡就一個例子他整個貨幣等於變廢紙\n那中國央行提高這個黃金的儲備量看起來是要貨幣維穩也有可能另外一個是分散投資啊因為美金跟黃金是逆指標美金跌黃金就漲嘛所以這個是另外一個可能性那另外有一個就是作為避險當你有可能像俄羅斯\n他知道他侵略烏克蘭有可能被經濟制裁可能被逐出Swift將來在國際貿易交換的時候黃金的儲備可以增加貿易夥伴的信心所以他會提高他的儲備量俄羅斯大概是排第五名中國現在是排第六名\n那國安局有沒有去分析中國提高黃金儲備量的主要原因有沒有可能跟武力犯台有關還是他們國內經濟局勢下滑有關維穩有關你們的判斷是什麼\n我們確定就是跟他國內的經濟下滑有很密切的關係至於委員：王定宇．跟臺海關於衝突．跟穩定他們大陸的目前的經濟狀況對於臺海的部分我們會密切的注意你們對臺海的評估是還不確定還是．我們在深入研究\n英國這個是屬於國防部的半官方智庫我覺得他們評估了一些鎖本他的分析跟你的不一樣所以我們國安局作為我們國家最高的情報單位我覺得這個是一個很適合延期的題目因為它持續正在發生中那中國的民間的個體經濟大量的買黃金往國外跑那是另外一件事情所以到底是因為他們經濟維穩人民幣維穩\n還是為將來可能發生衝突．被國際制裁來做準備．國安局有責任做好分析．是是是 是委員謝謝主席\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.129 --> 00:04.372\n好謝謝主席麻煩田次長請田次長王院長次長我們這幾年其實從臺美在臺灣關係法40週年以後臺美的關係一直往上走包含了這個北美協調會改成臺美美國事務委員會\n\n00:27.059 --> 00:44.278\n然後在隔年我們發現我們跟歐洲的進展也非常的快所以在我們看到的是2021年不管是歐洲議會通過的報告書有關COVID-19或者2021年歐洲外交委員會\n\n00:45.799 --> 01:04.837\n大概是第一次那麼高票通過臺歐盟政治關係及合作臺灣跟歐盟的政治關係及合作的報告及修正提案2021年還有歐洲議會通過臺歐這個臺灣歐盟政治關係及合作報告書等等那在\n\n01:06.479 --> 01:23.714\n今年初,歐洲議會還通過《共同外交及安全政策》、《共同安全及防禦政策》兩個決議案關心著中國升高台海危機,片面用武力改變現狀。這個都是台歐之間正向的發展。\n\n01:24.375 --> 01:52.397\n那今天我們談到的是習近平到歐洲的訪問坦白講一次的訪問看不出什麼大的改變特別是在法國各說各話他拜訪塞爾維亞跟匈牙利本來就是親中的國家反而是他沒有去義大利因為一帶一路可能生變他原來友好的國家縮小了他能去的地方減少了這個是從拜訪的形式上但本席比較關心的是在\n\n01:54.401 --> 01:57.030\n今年歐盟的輪值國是匈牙利\n\n01:58.516 --> 02:26.775\n唯一的隱憂在這裡也就是說習近平最近訪歐那不管是拜訪的國家的質跟量談話的內容看起來不若以往以前他在中東歐那時候講幾加幾啊就是26加1還多少加1忘記了就是把整個中東歐的國家加上中國產生一個極大的影響力那現在那一些氛圍呢都已經逆轉中國成了歐盟報告書裡面的威脅者\n\n02:28.116 --> 02:53.290\n他們還特別注意到北極那邊來自中國的可能威脅所以本期今天第一個問題要請教的是匈牙利會輪值主席國那這個輪值對於台灣跟歐盟的進展跟發展有沒有什麼影響特別是在我們今年里存有提到我們預計想要簽訂經貿或投資協定這個在今年初\n\n02:57.847 --> 03:13.014\n李存提到說臺歐洽簽經貿或投資協定這個是在今年1、2月的時候提到的所以請問市長有關信用壓力的部分你們怎麼評估這個可不可以請市長幫我回答一下市長請說是\n\n03:16.496 --> 03:40.718\n匈牙利是今年下半年擔任歐盟部長理事會的輪值主席但是因為今年6月份會有歐洲議會的選舉新的歐盟的執委會也必須要在9月、10月才會成立因此其實匈牙利的輪值主席所可以造成的影響在今年下半年是相當受限的他就輪這半年嗎?對因為他們的輪值主席有什麼權力?\n\n03:42.097 --> 04:04.272\n林主席其實最大的權力是他的議程的排序但是因為今年下半年歐洲的政治情勢的變遷所以我們認為說當然還是有他的權力但是因為歐洲的執委會跟議會都在重組過程當中今年我們大概站在台灣我們一個海島型的國家我們要特別注意周邊局勢的變化\n\n04:04.992 --> 04:25.697\n日本有可能進行改選不管是6月或9月美國總統大選那歐盟的執委會還有歐洲議會在改選這一些都牽動著地緣政治甚至於獨裁國家用認知作戰去介入這些國家選舉都是我們要注意的所以我們還是回到我們今天的焦點就是說臺歐\n\n04:26.917 --> 04:48.782\n我相信外交部在過去這兩三年應該有感受到臺歐的關係是大幅的改善特別在中歐因為東歐國家不喜歡被人家稱為東歐了他們就中歐國家所以目前你們評估休亞利這個輪值主席剛好遇到歐盟在改選執委會在改組所以這半年的輪值不會影響到agenda的設定你們判斷是這樣子嗎\n\n04:49.950 --> 05:14.217\n因為新的執委會,歐盟的立法權是分享的那新的執委會形成之後會有新的執委會的agenda所以真正會主導未來幾年歐洲的這個政局的發展應該是下一屆執委會那你們有關注這些選舉的有沒有可能結構性的翻轉或改變目前看起來應該人民黨團在議會還是會佔多數所以民主派會比較多\n\n05:15.757 --> 05:28.284\n基本上就是現在的權力結構不會有太大的改變有關這個臺歐洽簽經貿或投資協定這個事情是一個努力的方向還是有具體的進度\n\n05:31.075 --> 05:51.042\n過去歐盟的回應曾經對我們的雙邊投資協定有正面的回應但是後來也失去了動能因此我們現在主要是要重新倡議恰遷比照我們跟美國的21世紀貿易協議失去動能的原因是什麼美國的21世紀貿易倡議有點像BTA\n\n05:53.723 --> 06:20.122\n還有英國因為歐盟也是一個大的經濟體特別英國已經加入CPTPP所以歐盟的動作當然會影響到各國跟台灣的經貿你剛才講說原來有談到這個事情後來失去動能原因是什麼原因是因為歐中之間的全面投資協議因為有些議員提倡有關於新疆的人權問題種族滅絕等等的被中國制裁\n\n06:20.862 --> 06:21.222\n副局長,我先講題目啦\n\n06:41.007 --> 06:55.195\n最近有英國國防部所屬的智庫叫RUSI我不知道你有沒有注意到這個消息那這個是英國國防部官方的智庫他的副所長這個Jonathan他特別提到說\n\n06:56.656 --> 07:24.769\n中國最近這半年到9個月左右的時間大量的購買黃金他指的是他央行就是說他們提高他們黃金囤積黃金的準備量那他裡面這個是英國國防支部提到說這個是不是因應台海可能的衝突或者南海可能的衝突那中國呢要將來因應西方國家經濟制裁的一個手段那管局有沒有注意到這個報告\n\n07:27.405 --> 07:48.115\n有那他講的內容你們怎麼評估就是說中國其實長期持有黃金儲備量大概都在全球第6那前年的話是2100多噸到今年增加到2264噸所以他增加了儲備量的數額那這個增加呢\n\n07:49.156 --> 08:03.332\n當然這是英國國防智庫提到的可能是因應他可能會有衝突或者在台海會冒進他先提早準備起來未來西方國家對他經濟制裁的時候他的經濟可以維穩我們國安局怎麼評估他們為什麼囤積黃金\n\n08:06.146 --> 08:19.293\n這個跟國際局勢應該有關係就是有一些動盪的因素存在那一方面也是大陸的經濟的狀況可能不是那麼的理想人民會轉而搶購這個黃金\n\n08:24.257 --> 08:40.975\n我在國安局的報告裡面好像沒有看到這一塊反而在英國的國防部的智庫看到這一塊就是說我們一般學總體經濟的當一個國家的政府、央行提高黃金的儲備量其實兩個主要原因一個是避險另外一個是信用\n\n08:41.536 --> 09:04.730\n大概就這兩個作用必顯的話就是說在經濟不穩定不確定的時期強化對他經濟的穩定那中國又符合這個特色因為他們現在經濟不穩定很多大型的不動產公司跟金融的放貸公司都出問題第二個呢對國家貨幣求穩定就是避免大幅的往下走貶斯里蘭卡就一個例子他整個貨幣等於變廢紙\n\n09:06.371 --> 09:27.139\n那中國央行提高這個黃金的儲備量看起來是要貨幣維穩也有可能另外一個是分散投資啊因為美金跟黃金是逆指標美金跌黃金就漲嘛所以這個是另外一個可能性那另外有一個就是作為避險當你有可能像俄羅斯\n\n09:27.739 --> 09:44.042\n他知道他侵略烏克蘭有可能被經濟制裁可能被逐出Swift將來在國際貿易交換的時候黃金的儲備可以增加貿易夥伴的信心所以他會提高他的儲備量俄羅斯大概是排第五名中國現在是排第六名\n\n09:45.003 --> 09:57.864\n那國安局有沒有去分析中國提高黃金儲備量的主要原因有沒有可能跟武力犯台有關還是他們國內經濟局勢下滑有關維穩有關你們的判斷是什麼\n\n09:58.892 --> 10:17.371\n我們確定就是跟他國內的經濟下滑有很密切的關係至於委員：王定宇．跟臺海關於衝突．跟穩定他們大陸的目前的經濟狀況對於臺海的部分我們會密切的注意你們對臺海的評估是還不確定還是．我們在深入研究\n\n10:18.252 --> 10:39.747\n英國這個是屬於國防部的半官方智庫我覺得他們評估了一些鎖本他的分析跟你的不一樣所以我們國安局作為我們國家最高的情報單位我覺得這個是一個很適合延期的題目因為它持續正在發生中那中國的民間的個體經濟大量的買黃金往國外跑那是另外一件事情所以到底是因為他們經濟維穩人民幣維穩\n\n10:42.210 --> 10:50.907\n還是為將來可能發生衝突．被國際制裁來做準備．國安局有責任做好分析．是是是是委員謝謝主席\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.129,"end":4.372,"text":"好謝謝主席麻煩田次長請田次長王院長次長我們這幾年其實從臺美在臺灣關係法40週年以後臺美的關係一直往上走包含了這個北美協調會改成臺美美國事務委員會"},{"start":27.059,"end":44.278,"text":"然後在隔年我們發現我們跟歐洲的進展也非常的快所以在我們看到的是2021年不管是歐洲議會通過的報告書有關COVID-19或者2021年歐洲外交委員會"},{"start":45.799,"end":64.837,"text":"大概是第一次那麼高票通過臺歐盟政治關係及合作臺灣跟歐盟的政治關係及合作的報告及修正提案2021年還有歐洲議會通過臺歐這個臺灣歐盟政治關係及合作報告書等等那在"},{"start":66.479,"end":83.714,"text":"今年初,歐洲議會還通過《共同外交及安全政策》、《共同安全及防禦政策》兩個決議案關心著中國升高台海危機,片面用武力改變現狀。這個都是台歐之間正向的發展。"},{"start":84.375,"end":112.397,"text":"那今天我們談到的是習近平到歐洲的訪問坦白講一次的訪問看不出什麼大的改變特別是在法國各說各話他拜訪塞爾維亞跟匈牙利本來就是親中的國家反而是他沒有去義大利因為一帶一路可能生變他原來友好的國家縮小了他能去的地方減少了這個是從拜訪的形式上但本席比較關心的是在"},{"start":114.401,"end":117.03,"text":"今年歐盟的輪值國是匈牙利"},{"start":118.516,"end":146.775,"text":"唯一的隱憂在這裡也就是說習近平最近訪歐那不管是拜訪的國家的質跟量談話的內容看起來不若以往以前他在中東歐那時候講幾加幾啊就是26加1還多少加1忘記了就是把整個中東歐的國家加上中國產生一個極大的影響力那現在那一些氛圍呢都已經逆轉中國成了歐盟報告書裡面的威脅者"},{"start":148.116,"end":173.29,"text":"他們還特別注意到北極那邊來自中國的可能威脅所以本期今天第一個問題要請教的是匈牙利會輪值主席國那這個輪值對於台灣跟歐盟的進展跟發展有沒有什麼影響特別是在我們今年里存有提到我們預計想要簽訂經貿或投資協定這個在今年初"},{"start":177.847,"end":193.014,"text":"李存提到說臺歐洽簽經貿或投資協定這個是在今年1、2月的時候提到的所以請問市長有關信用壓力的部分你們怎麼評估這個可不可以請市長幫我回答一下市長請說是"},{"start":196.496,"end":220.718,"text":"匈牙利是今年下半年擔任歐盟部長理事會的輪值主席但是因為今年6月份會有歐洲議會的選舉新的歐盟的執委會也必須要在9月、10月才會成立因此其實匈牙利的輪值主席所可以造成的影響在今年下半年是相當受限的他就輪這半年嗎?對因為他們的輪值主席有什麼權力?"},{"start":222.097,"end":244.272,"text":"林主席其實最大的權力是他的議程的排序但是因為今年下半年歐洲的政治情勢的變遷所以我們認為說當然還是有他的權力但是因為歐洲的執委會跟議會都在重組過程當中今年我們大概站在台灣我們一個海島型的國家我們要特別注意周邊局勢的變化"},{"start":244.992,"end":265.697,"text":"日本有可能進行改選不管是6月或9月美國總統大選那歐盟的執委會還有歐洲議會在改選這一些都牽動著地緣政治甚至於獨裁國家用認知作戰去介入這些國家選舉都是我們要注意的所以我們還是回到我們今天的焦點就是說臺歐"},{"start":266.917,"end":288.782,"text":"我相信外交部在過去這兩三年應該有感受到臺歐的關係是大幅的改善特別在中歐因為東歐國家不喜歡被人家稱為東歐了他們就中歐國家所以目前你們評估休亞利這個輪值主席剛好遇到歐盟在改選執委會在改組所以這半年的輪值不會影響到agenda的設定你們判斷是這樣子嗎"},{"start":289.95,"end":314.217,"text":"因為新的執委會,歐盟的立法權是分享的那新的執委會形成之後會有新的執委會的agenda所以真正會主導未來幾年歐洲的這個政局的發展應該是下一屆執委會那你們有關注這些選舉的有沒有可能結構性的翻轉或改變目前看起來應該人民黨團在議會還是會佔多數所以民主派會比較多"},{"start":315.757,"end":328.284,"text":"基本上就是現在的權力結構不會有太大的改變有關這個臺歐洽簽經貿或投資協定這個事情是一個努力的方向還是有具體的進度"},{"start":331.075,"end":351.042,"text":"過去歐盟的回應曾經對我們的雙邊投資協定有正面的回應但是後來也失去了動能因此我們現在主要是要重新倡議恰遷比照我們跟美國的21世紀貿易協議失去動能的原因是什麼美國的21世紀貿易倡議有點像BTA"},{"start":353.723,"end":380.122,"text":"還有英國因為歐盟也是一個大的經濟體特別英國已經加入CPTPP所以歐盟的動作當然會影響到各國跟台灣的經貿你剛才講說原來有談到這個事情後來失去動能原因是什麼原因是因為歐中之間的全面投資協議因為有些議員提倡有關於新疆的人權問題種族滅絕等等的被中國制裁"},{"start":380.862,"end":381.222,"text":"副局長,我先講題目啦"},{"start":401.007,"end":415.195,"text":"最近有英國國防部所屬的智庫叫RUSI我不知道你有沒有注意到這個消息那這個是英國國防部官方的智庫他的副所長這個Jonathan他特別提到說"},{"start":416.656,"end":444.769,"text":"中國最近這半年到9個月左右的時間大量的購買黃金他指的是他央行就是說他們提高他們黃金囤積黃金的準備量那他裡面這個是英國國防支部提到說這個是不是因應台海可能的衝突或者南海可能的衝突那中國呢要將來因應西方國家經濟制裁的一個手段那管局有沒有注意到這個報告"},{"start":447.405,"end":468.115,"text":"有那他講的內容你們怎麼評估就是說中國其實長期持有黃金儲備量大概都在全球第6那前年的話是2100多噸到今年增加到2264噸所以他增加了儲備量的數額那這個增加呢"},{"start":469.156,"end":483.332,"text":"當然這是英國國防智庫提到的可能是因應他可能會有衝突或者在台海會冒進他先提早準備起來未來西方國家對他經濟制裁的時候他的經濟可以維穩我們國安局怎麼評估他們為什麼囤積黃金"},{"start":486.146,"end":499.293,"text":"這個跟國際局勢應該有關係就是有一些動盪的因素存在那一方面也是大陸的經濟的狀況可能不是那麼的理想人民會轉而搶購這個黃金"},{"start":504.257,"end":520.975,"text":"我在國安局的報告裡面好像沒有看到這一塊反而在英國的國防部的智庫看到這一塊就是說我們一般學總體經濟的當一個國家的政府、央行提高黃金的儲備量其實兩個主要原因一個是避險另外一個是信用"},{"start":521.536,"end":544.73,"text":"大概就這兩個作用必顯的話就是說在經濟不穩定不確定的時期強化對他經濟的穩定那中國又符合這個特色因為他們現在經濟不穩定很多大型的不動產公司跟金融的放貸公司都出問題第二個呢對國家貨幣求穩定就是避免大幅的往下走貶斯里蘭卡就一個例子他整個貨幣等於變廢紙"},{"start":546.371,"end":567.139,"text":"那中國央行提高這個黃金的儲備量看起來是要貨幣維穩也有可能另外一個是分散投資啊因為美金跟黃金是逆指標美金跌黃金就漲嘛所以這個是另外一個可能性那另外有一個就是作為避險當你有可能像俄羅斯"},{"start":567.739,"end":584.042,"text":"他知道他侵略烏克蘭有可能被經濟制裁可能被逐出Swift將來在國際貿易交換的時候黃金的儲備可以增加貿易夥伴的信心所以他會提高他的儲備量俄羅斯大概是排第五名中國現在是排第六名"},{"start":585.003,"end":597.864,"text":"那國安局有沒有去分析中國提高黃金儲備量的主要原因有沒有可能跟武力犯台有關還是他們國內經濟局勢下滑有關維穩有關你們的判斷是什麼"},{"start":598.892,"end":617.371,"text":"我們確定就是跟他國內的經濟下滑有很密切的關係至於委員：王定宇．跟臺海關於衝突．跟穩定他們大陸的目前的經濟狀況對於臺海的部分我們會密切的注意你們對臺海的評估是還不確定還是．我們在深入研究"},{"start":618.252,"end":639.747,"text":"英國這個是屬於國防部的半官方智庫我覺得他們評估了一些鎖本他的分析跟你的不一樣所以我們國安局作為我們國家最高的情報單位我覺得這個是一個很適合延期的題目因為它持續正在發生中那中國的民間的個體經濟大量的買黃金往國外跑那是另外一件事情所以到底是因為他們經濟維穩人民幣維穩"},{"start":642.21,"end":650.907,"text":"還是為將來可能發生衝突．被國際制裁來做準備．國安局有責任做好分析．是是是 是委員謝謝主席"}]}}}}