{"id":153269,"url":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/153269","video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/2c978e04ca5e13317337da0edb68124674cb636d3605ada8c09f7998a2d5a4c147e74eb234ca6a285ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"王鴻薇","委員發言時間":"12:02:14 - 12:09:57","影片長度":"00:07:43","會議時間":"2024-05-29T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議（事由：邀請國家安全局局長蔡明彥、外交部、大陸委員會報告「第十六屆總統就職後國際暨兩岸情勢發展對我國安之影響」，並備質詢。）","date":"2024-05-29","duration":463,"meet":{"tmpMeeting":null,"title":"第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議","term":11,"type":"委員會","sessionPeriod":1,"sessionTimes":22,"committees":[35],"id":"委員會-11-1-35-22"},"end_time":"2024-05-29T12:09:57+08:00","start_time":"2024-05-29T12:02:14+08:00","features":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"type":"Clip","gazette":{"lineno":659,"blocks":[["王委員鴻薇：（12時1分）謝謝主席。我先請陸委會梁副主委。"],["主席：請陸委會梁副主委。"],["王委員鴻薇：副主委好。旅遊觀光業非常關心，因為馬上6月份我們又恢復禁團令，現在包含旅遊觀光業，他們一直在打聽6月份的禁團令有沒有可能取消，當然有些是很樂觀的，但也有些很悲觀的，因為現在很多觀光業都覺得已經活不下去。所以想請問一下副主委，就您所瞭解，6月份的禁團令還是繼續維持嗎？還是在進入倒數之後，尤其這個禮拜五，院長會到立法院做施政報告，有沒有可能6月份的禁團令會有任何的更動？"],["梁副主任委員文傑：我們正在規劃中，具體要由交通部來說明。"],["王委員鴻薇：會不會由院長星期五來的時候說明？因為正好是5月31日，因為馬上6月就到了。"],["梁副主任委員文傑：有可能。"],["王委員鴻薇：有可能？"],["梁副主任委員文傑：對，有可能。"],["王委員鴻薇：所以如果由院長來說明，也代表是有可能做一些調整？"],["梁副主任委員文傑：我們正在規劃中，要由交通部來說明。"],["王委員鴻薇：好，謝謝。時間暫停，請副主委先回座，我請蔡局長。"],["主席：請蔡局長。"],["蔡局長明彥：委員好。"],["王委員鴻薇：局長，剛才美國眾議院外交委員會主席麥考爾（Michael McCaul）也來這邊做參訪，因為時間非常短，我也不好意思去問他這件事情，但是我覺得很重要。因為在媒體採訪的時候，他特別提出了，他說美國對臺事務上有一些紅線是不能跨越的，不然的話，即便臺灣沒有挑釁的動作，但是也有可能發生戰爭。就我們局長所瞭解，他所謂紅線的定義會是什麼？"],["蔡局長明彥：對，就我們對於美方長期對臺政策的理解，剛才提到的所謂不能跨越的紅線，主要重點還是在維持臺海和平的現狀，不能夠容許透過單邊脅迫式的方式來改變現狀，這大概是他們長期政策論述的重點。"],["王委員鴻薇：你可不可以具體講，那個所謂的紅線的意義是什麼？比如北京方面，他講到一個臺灣議題的紅線，我們大致會知道，因為他會有很多的說法，但是我覺得麥考爾的講法是直接告訴會有紅線，不能夠跨越，所以可不可以具體的說明，那個所謂的紅線指的是什麼？"],["蔡局長明彥：我剛剛跟委員有提到，一個部分是臺灣關係法以及美國長期政策大概都很強調臺海和平穩定這個概念，那這個和平穩定的現狀不應該被武力或脅迫式的方式來挑戰。"],["王委員鴻薇：所以局長認為我們目前沒有跨越紅線，對不對？"],["蔡局長明彥：對，我們目前並沒有，所以這是為什麼美國的國務院系統還有包括拜登總統在西點軍校的演說，都有特別提到剛剛我跟委員說明的這些重點。"],["王委員鴻薇：另外要請教的就是，在賴總統就職演說後三天，北京無預警的做環台軍演，接下來他又說會在東海有接近三週的實彈射擊訓練，我想問的是，包括這個環台軍演還有現在宣布要進行的三週實彈射擊訓練，請問在這之前，美方有沒有通知過臺灣說陸方要準備軍演？"],["蔡局長明彥：我想在美國國務院第一次對外的說明有針對這個問題對外做解釋，我也跟委員說明一下，他有提到說臺灣跟美國針對中共的軍事動態都有進行相關的聯合監控，這是美方對外的說明，我們尊重這樣的說法。至於委員關心他在沿海開始劃設一些禁航區來進行所謂的火炮試射，跟委員報告的是，不止是東海，事實上從渤海地區，昨天算了一下，大概有六、七個禁航區的劃設，那這個比較屬於是季節性的火炮試射的演訓，對臺海的針對性比較沒有那麼高。"],["王委員鴻薇：所以你覺得在東海的部分、渤海的部分並不是衝著臺灣來的，可能是衝著東北亞去的？"],["蔡局長明彥：是。"],["王委員鴻薇：我還是要很具體的請局長回答，就是針對臺灣的環台軍演，我們在事先有沒有得到任何的訊息？"],["蔡局長明彥：這要分兩部分，一個部分是態勢上的判斷，在1月13號選後，我們就有做一個概括的分析，……"],["王委員鴻薇：我問的不是判斷，我們判斷歸判斷，我是說有沒有得到訊息？有或者沒有？"],["蔡局長明彥：我剛剛講了要分兩部分，麻煩委員給我幾秒鐘說明一下。一個部分是整體的判斷，就是從1月13日到520，我們認為會有一些軍事上比較中度的動作，……"],["王委員鴻薇：有沒有超過我們原來的判斷？"],["蔡局長明彥：目前看起來還好。第二面個向要講的是……"],["王委員鴻薇：還好？"],["蔡局長明彥：這個「還好」是相對性的，我也跟其他委員說明過，比起去年4月的聯合利劍跟2022年8月的環台軍演，這一次的規模並沒有比過去來得大。委員關注的是我們事前到底知不知道，因為只要他們的船艦一有什麼動作，我們都能夠掌握，所以大概從他動員的船艦數量以及航向的地點，我們可以判斷整體的態勢是什麼。"],["王委員鴻薇：所以在他宣布之前我們已經掌握消息了嗎？"],["蔡局長明彥：有，有，有。"],["王委員鴻薇：我們確定有掌握消息？"],["蔡局長明彥：有。"],["王委員鴻薇：那我再請問一下，賴總統上任之後有沒有召開過國安首長會議？"],["蔡局長明彥：有。我跟委員報告，就是在520之後，在總統召開的第一次國安首長會議，我們就已經有大概預判了演習的狀況跟時間。"],["王委員鴻薇：請問一下，在他宣布聯合軍演就是環台軍演之後，我們有沒有召開國安會議？"],["蔡局長明彥：有，我也都有跟總統報告相關的狀況。"],["王委員鴻薇：那總統的指示是什麼？"],["蔡局長明彥：對於整個的軍事動態，因為我們都有非常精準的預判以及全面資訊的掌握，有針對這個狀況跟總統做說明。"],["王委員鴻薇：所以總結來講就是這一次的環台軍演，局長的意思是說事前有掌握，然後呢……"],["蔡局長明彥：發生之後也立即有跟……"],["王委員鴻薇：然後低於我們原來預估的強度，可以這樣解釋嗎？"],["蔡局長明彥：大概整個判斷的規模跟我們預先的評估是接近的。"],["王委員鴻薇：原來你們判斷的規模就有環台軍演的部分嗎？好，那最後一個問題，這樣的環台軍演未來會不會常態化？"],["蔡局長明彥：這也是我們特別在提醒要關注的，因為他們這一次環台軍演的演習代號是有序號的，稱為「聯合利劍-2024A」，就我們對共軍的理解，他有A就不能排除後續的……"],["王委員鴻薇：就會有B，就會有C。"],["蔡局長明彥：所以它有可能會變成是系列的軍演，會以不同的演習科目來進行。"],["王委員鴻薇：所以我們預期他會繼續，除了A之外還會有B，變成一個系列？"],["蔡局長明彥：我們不能排除，我們會來注意。"],["王委員鴻薇：那會不會常態化？環台軍演對臺灣來講並不是一個正常的事情，那我們會認為未來會是常態化嗎？"],["蔡局長明彥：這也是在書面報告中有跟委員提醒的，就是我們確實有在擔心也在關注這樣的趨勢。"],["王委員鴻薇：有這樣的擔心？"],["蔡局長明彥：是的，有這個concern。"],["王委員鴻薇：那麼在未來，這個其實對我們的不管是國安或者是我們國防一線所有的國軍弟兄都是非常非常大的壓力。好不好？謝謝！"],["蔡局長明彥：是，大家都很辛苦，謝謝委員關心。謝謝！"],["主席：謝謝王委員。","接下來請洪孟楷委員上台質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":54,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-35-22","speakers":["馬文君","羅美玲","洪申翰","陳永康","黃仁","陳冠廷","林楚茵","徐巧芯","王定宇","賴士葆","沈伯洋","王鴻薇","洪孟楷","張啓楷","林宜瑾","林憶君","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":1,"meetingDate":["2024-05-29"],"gazette_id":"1135301","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1135301_00002"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請國家安全局局長蔡明彥、外交部、大陸委員會報告「第十六屆總統就職後國際暨兩岸情勢發\n展對我國安之影響」，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1135301_00001"}},"transcript":{"id":"153269","pyannote":{"name":"ronny","tool":"pyannote","data":{"url":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/153269","tool":"pyannote","id":"153269-pyannote"},"job_id":"2i1PJ8mIy4YcW61e","queued_at":"2024-05-30 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{\"word\": \"演\", \"start\": 478.625, \"end\": 478.845, \"score\": 0.836}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"台\", \"start\": 478.845, \"end\": 478.965, \"score\": 0.612}, {\"word\": \"灣\"}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"講\"}, {\"word\": \"並\"}, {\"word\": \"不\", \"start\": 478.965, \"end\": 479.145, \"score\": 0.653}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 479.145, \"end\": 479.265, \"score\": 0.778}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 479.265, \"end\": 479.285, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"正\", \"start\": 479.285, \"end\": 479.525, \"score\": 0.751}, {\"word\": \"常\", \"start\": 479.525, \"end\": 479.645, \"score\": 0.83}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 479.645, \"end\": 480.025, \"score\": 0.674}, {\"word\": \"事\", \"start\": 480.025, \"end\": 480.045, \"score\": 0.009}, {\"word\": \"情\", \"start\": 480.045, \"end\": 480.065, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"﹗\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 480.065, \"end\": 480.566, \"score\": 0.889}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 480.566, \"end\": 480.626, \"score\": 0.82}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 480.626, \"end\": 480.646, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"認\"}, {\"word\": \"為\"}, {\"word\": \"未\", \"start\": 480.646, \"end\": 480.666, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 480.666, \"end\": 480.726, \"score\": 0.323}, {\"word\": \"常\", \"start\": 480.726, \"end\": 480.746, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"態\"}, {\"word\": \"化\", \"start\": 480.746, \"end\": 480.766, \"score\": 0.003}, {\"word\": \"嗎\"}, {\"word\": \"?\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 487.27, \"end\": 487.35, \"score\": 0.741}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"關\"}, {\"word\": \"心\", \"start\": 487.35, \"end\": 487.37, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"。\"}], \"language\": \"en\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:00,089 --> 00:00:03,591\n接 下 來 , 請 王 鴻 薇 委 員 上 台 質 詢 。 好 , 謝 謝 主 席 。 我 先 請 陸 委 會 梁 副 主 委 。 請 陸 委 會 梁 副 主 委\n\n2\n00:00:24,842 --> 00:00:38,937\n副 主 委 好 , 旅 遊 觀 光 業 非 常 關 心 因 為 馬 上 6 月 份 我 們 又 恢 復 禁 團 令 那 現 在 呢 , 包 含 旅 遊 觀 光 業 他 們 一 直 在 打 聽 6 月 份 的 禁 團 令 有 沒 有 可 能 取 消\n\n3\n00:00:40,078 --> 00:00:54,535\n當 然 有 些 是 很 樂 觀 的 但 也 有 些 很 悲 觀 的 因 為 現 在 很 多 的 觀 光 業 都 覺 得 都 已 經 活 不 下 去 所 以 想 請 問 一 下 副 組 委 就 您 所 了 解 6 月 份 的 禁 團 令 還 是 繼 續 的 維 持 嗎\n\n4\n00:00:56,817 --> 00:01:23,413\n還 是 在 進 入 倒 數 之 後 尤 其 禮 拜 五 的 時 候 那 個 院 長 會 到 立 法 院 做 實 證 報 告 有 沒 有 可 能 6 月 份 的 禁 團 令 會 有 任 何 的 更 動 我 們 正 在 規 劃 中 那 具 體 要 由 這 個 交 通 部 來 說 明 會 不 會 有 院 長 來 星 期 五 的 時 候 因 為 正 好 是 5 月 3 1 號\n\n5\n00:01:27,543 --> 00:01:27,743\n請 蔡 局 長\n\n6\n00:01:56,909 --> 00:02:25,876\n好 局 長 剛 才 我 們 美 國 眾 議 院 的 外 交 事 務 委 員 會 主 席 馬 克 歐 剛 才 也 來 這 邊 來 做 參 訪 但 是 呢 因 為 我 們 時 間 非 常 短 我 也 不 好 意 思 去 問 他 這 件 事 情 但 我 覺 得 很 重 要 就 是 因 為 在 媒 體 採 訪 的 時 候 他 特 別 提 出 了 他 說 美 國 對 台 事 務 上 有 一 些 紅 線 是 不 能 跨 越 的\n\n7\n00:02:26,616 --> 00:02:32,819\n對 , 就 我 們 對 美 方 長 期 對 台 政 策 的 理 解 他 才 提 到 了 所 謂 不 能 跨 越 紅 線 主 要 重 點 還 是 在 維 持 臺 海 的 和 平 的 現 狀 不 能 夠 容 許 透 過 單 邊 脅 迫 式 的 方 式 來 改 變 現 狀 這 大 概 是 他 們 長 期 政 策 論 述 的 重 點\n\n8\n00:02:57,266 --> 00:03:20,027\n你 可 不 可 以 具 體 講 , 那 個 所 謂 的 紅 線 的 意 義 是 什 麼 ? 比 如 說 , 像 北 京 方 面 , 他 講 到 一 個 台 灣 議 題 的 紅 線 , 我 們 大 致 會 知 道 , 因 為 他 會 有 很 多 的 說 法 。 但 是 呢 , 我 覺 得 馬 克 奧 他 的 講 法 是 , 直 接 告 訴 會 有 紅 線 不 能 夠 跨 越 。 所 以 可 不 可 以 有 一 些 具 體 的 , 那 個 所 謂 的 紅 線 是 指 的 什 麼 ?\n\n9\n00:03:20,828 --> 00:03:23,470\n所 以 局 長 認 為 我 們 目 前 沒 有 跨 越 紅 線 , 對 不 對 ?\n\n10\n00:03:41,026 --> 00:03:56,941\n所 以 這 是 為 什 麼 美 國 的 國 務 院 系 統 還 有 包 括 到 拜 登 總 統 在 西 點 軍 校 的 演 說 都 特 別 提 到 剛 剛 我 跟 委 員 說 明 的 這 些 重 點 另 外 請 教 一 下 就 是 在 賴 總 統 就 職 演 說 後 三 天 北 京 是 無 預 警 的 做 還 台 的 軍 演\n\n11\n00:03:57,881 --> 00:04:20,856\n接 下 來 他 又 說 在 東 海 會 接 近 三 週 的 實 彈 射 擊 的 訓 練 我 想 請 問 一 下 包 括 環 台 軍 演 還 有 現 在 的 宣 布 要 三 週 實 彈 射 擊 的 訓 練 請 問 一 下 在 這 之 前 美 方 有 沒 有 通 知 過 台 灣 說 陸 方 要 準 備 進 演\n\n12\n00:04:22,420 --> 00:04:50,269\n對 我 想 在 美 國 國 務 院 的 第 一 次 對 外 的 說 明 他 有 針 對 這 個 問 題 對 外 做 解 釋 我 也 跟 委 員 說 明 一 下 他 有 提 到 說 臺 灣 跟 美 國 針 對 中 共 的 軍 事 的 動 態 都 有 進 行 相 關 的 聯 合 的 監 控 的 動 作 這 是 美 方 對 外 說 明 那 我 們 尊 重 這 樣 的 說 法 那 至 於 委 員 在 關 心 的 是 他 沿 海 開 始 劃 設 一 些 禁 航 區 來 進 行 所 謂 的 火 炮 的 試 射 各 位 報 告 的 是 不 只 是 東 海 事 實 上 從 渤 海 地 區\n\n13\n00:04:51,809 --> 00:05:01,704\n昨 天 算 了 一 下 大 概 有 六 七 個 進 航 區 的 化 射 那 這 個 比 較 屬 於 是 季 節 性 的 一 個 火 炮 試 射 的 演 訓 對 台 海 的 針 對 性 比 較 沒 有 那 麼 高\n\n14\n00:05:02,273 --> 00:05:22,376\n所 以 你 覺 得 在 這 個 東 海 的 部 分 、 渤 海 的 部 分 並 不 是 衝 著 台 灣 來 的 , 可 能 是 衝 著 東 北 亞 而 去 的 。 那 我 還 是 要 很 具 體 的 邀 請 那 個 局 長 能 夠 回 答 , 也 就 是 呢 在 那 麼 我 們 針 對 台 灣 的 環 台 軍 演 , 我 們 在 事 先 有 沒 有 得 到 任 何 的 訊 息 ?\n\n15\n00:05:23,237 --> 00:05:36,823\n好 , 這 分 兩 部 分 , 一 個 部 分 是 態 勢 上 的 判 斷 , 在 1 月 1 3 號 選 後 , 我 們 大 概 就 有 做 一 個 概 括 的 分 析 。 但 是 我 不 是 判 斷 , 我 是 說 有 沒 有 得 到 訊 息 , 有 或 者 沒 有 。 我 們 判 斷 歸 判 斷 。 對 對 對 , 我 剛 剛 講 了 兩 部 分 , 一 個 部 分 是 整 體 的 判 斷 , 那 麻 煩 我 幾 秒 鐘 說 明 一 下 。 時 間 快 到 了 。 對 , 就 1 月 1 3 到 5 月 2 0 我 們 認 為 會 有 一 些 軍 事 上 比 較 中 度 的 動 作 。\n\n16\n00:05:47,608 --> 00:06:16,115\n那 有 沒 有 超 過 呢 ? 有 沒 有 超 過 我 們 原 來 的 判 斷 ? 目 前 看 起 來 還 好 , 好 , 好 , 第 二 面 現 在 要 講 的 是 還 好 喔 ! 這 所 謂 是 相 對 性 的 , 因 為 我 也 跟 其 他 委 員 說 明 過 , 比 起 去 年 4 月 的 聯 合 立 建 跟 2 0 2 2 年 的 8 月 的 環 台 軍 演 , 這 一 次 的 規 模 並 沒 有 比 過 去 來 得 大 。 那 委 員 關 注 的 是 我 們 事 前 到 底 知 不 知 道 ? 因 為 只 要 他 們 的 船 艦 一 有 什 麼 動 作 , 我 們 都 能 夠 掌 握 , 所 以 大 概 從 他 動 員 的 船 艦 的 數 量 以 及 航 向 的 地 點 , 我 們 可 以 判 斷\n\n17\n00:06:16,715 --> 00:06:43,870\n在 他 宣 布 之 前 我 們 已 經 掌 握 消 息 了 嗎 ? 有 有 有 有 有 有 我 們 確 定 有 掌 握 消 息 那 我 再 請 問 一 下 賴 總 統 上 任 之 後 有 沒 有 召 開 過 國 安 會 議 ? 有 我 剛 才 也 跟 有 國 安 首 長 會 議 你 剛 剛 講 有 有 有 好 那 我 請 問 一 下 我 跟 委 員 報 告 一 下 就 是 在 5 2 0 之 後 在 第 一 次 的 總 統 召 開 的 國 安 首 長 會 議 我 們 就 已 經 有 大 概 預 判 了 演 習 的 狀 況 跟 時 間 好 那 我 請 問 一 下 在 他 宣 布 這 個\n\n18\n00:06:45,111 --> 00:06:45,532\n總 統 的 指 示 是 什 麼 ?\n\n19\n00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:24,151\n對 於 整 個 的 軍 事 動 態 因 為 我 們 都 有 非 常 精 準 的 預 判 那 以 及 全 面 資 訊 的 掌 握 那 有 針 對 這 個 說 法 ﹖ 所 以 總 結 來 講 就 是 這 一 次 的 這 個 環 台 軍 演 就 是 局 長 的 意 思 說 事 前 有 掌 握 有 然 後 呢 發 生 之 後 也 立 即 有 然 後 低 於 我 們 原 來 預 估 的 強 度 是 這 樣 ﹖ 可 以 這 樣 解 釋 嗎 沒 有 大 概 整 個 判 斷 的 規 模 跟 我 們 預 先 的 評 估 是 接 近 的 對\n\n20\n00:07:25,322 --> 00:07:29,305\n最 後 一 個 問 題 , 這 樣 環 台 軍 演 未 來 會 不 會 常 態 化 ? 這 也 是 我 們 特 別 提 醒 要 關 注 的 , 因 為 這 次 環 台 軍 演 的 演 習 代 號 是 有 序 號 的 , 稱 為 聯 合 力 艦 2 0 2 4 A\n\n21\n00:07:43,695 --> 00:08:00,766\n那 就 我 們 對 共 軍 的 理 解 , 它 有 A 你 不 能 排 除 有 後 續 的 B 或 C ﹗ 就 會 有 B , 就 會 有 C ﹗ 對 , 所 以 它 有 可 能 會 變 成 是 不 同 的 系 列 的 軍 演 會 有 不 同 的 演 習 科 目 的 進 行 ﹗ 所 以 我 們 預 期 它 會 有 繼 續 , 繼 續 除 了 A 之 後 還 會 有 B 的 自 編 系 列 ﹗ 對 , 我 們 不 能 排 除 , 我 們 來 注 意 ﹗ 那 會 不 會 常 態 化 ? 環 台 軍 演 對 台 灣 來 講 並 不 是 一 個 正 常 的 事 情 ﹗ 是 那 我 們 會 認 為 未 來 會 是 常 態 化 嗎 ?\n\n22\n00:08:07,270 --> 00:08:07,370\n謝 謝 委 員 關 心 , 謝 謝 。\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n89\t3591\t接下來,請王鴻薇委員上台質詢。好,謝謝主席。我先請陸委會梁副主委。請陸委會梁副主委\n24842\t38937\t副主委好,旅遊觀光業非常關心因為馬上6月份我們又恢復禁團令那現在呢,包含旅遊觀光業他們一直在打聽6月份的禁團令有沒有可能取消\n40078\t54535\t當然有些是很樂觀的但也有些很悲觀的因為現在很多的觀光業都覺得都已經活不下去所以想請問一下副組委就您所了解6月份的禁團令還是繼續的維持嗎\n56817\t83413\t還是在進入倒數之後尤其禮拜五的時候那個院長會到立法院做實證報告有沒有可能6月份的禁團令會有任何的更動我們正在規劃中那具體要由這個交通部來說明會不會有院長來星期五的時候因為正好是5月31號\n87543\t87743\t請蔡局長\n116909\t145876\t好 局長 剛才我們美國眾議院的外交事務委員會主席馬克歐剛才也來這邊來做參訪但是呢 因為我們時間非常短我也不好意思去問他這件事情但我覺得很重要就是因為在媒體採訪的時候他特別提出了他說美國對台事務上有一些紅線是不能跨越的\n146616\t152819\t對,就我們對美方長期對台政策的理解他才提到了所謂不能跨越紅線主要重點還是在維持臺海的和平的現狀不能夠容許透過單邊脅迫式的方式來改變現狀這大概是他們長期政策論述的重點\n177266\t200027\t你可不可以具體講,那個所謂的紅線的意義是什麼?比如說,像北京方面,他講到一個台灣議題的紅線,我們大致會知道,因為他會有很多的說法。但是呢,我覺得馬克奧他的講法是,直接告訴會有紅線不能夠跨越。所以可不可以有一些具體的,那個所謂的紅線是指的什麼?\n200828\t203470\t所以局長認為我們目前沒有跨越紅線,對不對?\n221026\t236941\t所以這是為什麼美國的國務院系統還有包括到拜登總統在西點軍校的演說都特別提到剛剛我跟委員說明的這些重點另外請教一下就是在賴總統就職演說後三天北京是無預警的做還台的軍演\n237881\t260856\t接下來他又說在東海會接近三週的實彈射擊的訓練我想請問一下包括環台軍演還有現在的宣布要三週實彈射擊的訓練請問一下在這之前美方有沒有通知過台灣說陸方要準備進演\n262420\t290269\t對 我想在美國國務院的第一次對外的說明他有針對這個問題對外做解釋我也跟委員說明一下他有提到說臺灣跟美國針對中共的軍事的動態都有進行相關的聯合的監控的動作這是美方對外說明那我們尊重這樣的說法那至於委員在關心的是他沿海開始劃設一些禁航區來進行所謂的火炮的試射各位報告的是不只是東海事實上從渤海地區\n291809\t301704\t昨天算了一下大概有六七個進航區的化射那這個比較屬於是季節性的一個火炮試射的演訓對台海的針對性比較沒有那麼高\n302273\t322376\t所以你覺得在這個東海的部分、渤海的部分並不是衝著台灣來的,可能是衝著東北亞而去的。那我還是要很具體的邀請那個局長能夠回答,也就是呢在那麼我們針對台灣的環台軍演,我們在事先有沒有得到任何的訊息?\n323237\t336823\t好,這分兩部分,一個部分是態勢上的判斷,在1月13號選後,我們大概就有做一個概括的分析。但是我不是判斷,我是說有沒有得到訊息,有或者沒有。我們判斷歸判斷。對對對,我剛剛講了兩部分,一個部分是整體的判斷,那麻煩我幾秒鐘說明一下。時間快到了。對,就1月13到5月20我們認為會有一些軍事上比較中度的動作。\n347608\t376115\t那有沒有超過呢?有沒有超過我們原來的判斷?目前看起來還好,好,好,第二面現在要講的是還好喔!這所謂是相對性的,因為我也跟其他委員說明過,比起去年4月的聯合立建跟2022年的8月的環台軍演,這一次的規模並沒有比過去來得大。那委員關注的是我們事前到底知不知道?因為只要他們的船艦一有什麼動作,我們都能夠掌握,所以大概從他動員的船艦的數量以及航向的地點,我們可以判斷\n376715\t403870\t在他宣布之前我們已經掌握消息了嗎?有有有有有有我們確定有掌握消息那我再請問一下賴總統上任之後有沒有召開過國安會議?有我剛才也跟有國安首長會議你剛剛講有有有好那我請問一下我跟委員報告一下就是在520之後在第一次的總統召開的國安首長會議我們就已經有大概預判了演習的狀況跟時間好那我請問一下在他宣布這個\n405111\t405532\t總統的指示是什麼?\n416600\t444151\t對於整個的軍事動態因為我們都有非常精準的預判那以及全面資訊的掌握那有針對這個說法﹖所以總結來講就是這一次的這個環台軍演就是局長的意思說事前有掌握有然後呢發生之後也立即有然後低於我們原來預估的強度是這樣﹖可以這樣解釋嗎沒有大概整個判斷的規模跟我們預先的評估是接近的對\n445322\t449305\t最後一個問題,這樣環台軍演未來會不會常態化?這也是我們特別提醒要關注的,因為這次環台軍演的演習代號是有序號的,稱為聯合力艦2024A\n463695\t480766\t那就我們對共軍的理解,它有A你不能排除有後續的B或C﹗就會有B,就會有C﹗對,所以它有可能會變成是不同的系列的軍演會有不同的演習科目的進行﹗所以我們預期它會有繼續,繼續除了A之後還會有B的自編系列﹗對,我們不能排除,我們來注意﹗那會不會常態化?環台軍演對台灣來講並不是一個正常的事情﹗是那我們會認為未來會是常態化嗎?\n487270\t487370\t謝謝委員關心,謝謝。\n","txt":"接下來,請王鴻薇委員上台質詢。好,謝謝主席。我先請陸委會梁副主委。請陸委會梁副主委\n副主委好,旅遊觀光業非常關心因為馬上6月份我們又恢復禁團令那現在呢,包含旅遊觀光業他們一直在打聽6月份的禁團令有沒有可能取消\n當然有些是很樂觀的但也有些很悲觀的因為現在很多的觀光業都覺得都已經活不下去所以想請問一下副組委就您所了解6月份的禁團令還是繼續的維持嗎\n還是在進入倒數之後尤其禮拜五的時候那個院長會到立法院做實證報告有沒有可能6月份的禁團令會有任何的更動我們正在規劃中那具體要由這個交通部來說明會不會有院長來星期五的時候因為正好是5月31號\n請蔡局長\n好 局長 剛才我們美國眾議院的外交事務委員會主席馬克歐剛才也來這邊來做參訪但是呢 因為我們時間非常短我也不好意思去問他這件事情但我覺得很重要就是因為在媒體採訪的時候他特別提出了他說美國對台事務上有一些紅線是不能跨越的\n對,就我們對美方長期對台政策的理解他才提到了所謂不能跨越紅線主要重點還是在維持臺海的和平的現狀不能夠容許透過單邊脅迫式的方式來改變現狀這大概是他們長期政策論述的重點\n你可不可以具體講,那個所謂的紅線的意義是什麼?比如說,像北京方面,他講到一個台灣議題的紅線,我們大致會知道,因為他會有很多的說法。但是呢,我覺得馬克奧他的講法是,直接告訴會有紅線不能夠跨越。所以可不可以有一些具體的,那個所謂的紅線是指的什麼?\n所以局長認為我們目前沒有跨越紅線,對不對?\n所以這是為什麼美國的國務院系統還有包括到拜登總統在西點軍校的演說都特別提到剛剛我跟委員說明的這些重點另外請教一下就是在賴總統就職演說後三天北京是無預警的做還台的軍演\n接下來他又說在東海會接近三週的實彈射擊的訓練我想請問一下包括環台軍演還有現在的宣布要三週實彈射擊的訓練請問一下在這之前美方有沒有通知過台灣說陸方要準備進演\n對 我想在美國國務院的第一次對外的說明他有針對這個問題對外做解釋我也跟委員說明一下他有提到說臺灣跟美國針對中共的軍事的動態都有進行相關的聯合的監控的動作這是美方對外說明那我們尊重這樣的說法那至於委員在關心的是他沿海開始劃設一些禁航區來進行所謂的火炮的試射各位報告的是不只是東海事實上從渤海地區\n昨天算了一下大概有六七個進航區的化射那這個比較屬於是季節性的一個火炮試射的演訓對台海的針對性比較沒有那麼高\n所以你覺得在這個東海的部分、渤海的部分並不是衝著台灣來的,可能是衝著東北亞而去的。那我還是要很具體的邀請那個局長能夠回答,也就是呢在那麼我們針對台灣的環台軍演,我們在事先有沒有得到任何的訊息?\n好,這分兩部分,一個部分是態勢上的判斷,在1月13號選後,我們大概就有做一個概括的分析。但是我不是判斷,我是說有沒有得到訊息,有或者沒有。我們判斷歸判斷。對對對,我剛剛講了兩部分,一個部分是整體的判斷,那麻煩我幾秒鐘說明一下。時間快到了。對,就1月13到5月20我們認為會有一些軍事上比較中度的動作。\n那有沒有超過呢?有沒有超過我們原來的判斷?目前看起來還好,好,好,第二面現在要講的是還好喔!這所謂是相對性的,因為我也跟其他委員說明過,比起去年4月的聯合立建跟2022年的8月的環台軍演,這一次的規模並沒有比過去來得大。那委員關注的是我們事前到底知不知道?因為只要他們的船艦一有什麼動作,我們都能夠掌握,所以大概從他動員的船艦的數量以及航向的地點,我們可以判斷\n在他宣布之前我們已經掌握消息了嗎?有有有有有有我們確定有掌握消息那我再請問一下賴總統上任之後有沒有召開過國安會議?有我剛才也跟有國安首長會議你剛剛講有有有好那我請問一下我跟委員報告一下就是在520之後在第一次的總統召開的國安首長會議我們就已經有大概預判了演習的狀況跟時間好那我請問一下在他宣布這個\n總統的指示是什麼?\n對於整個的軍事動態因為我們都有非常精準的預判那以及全面資訊的掌握那有針對這個說法﹖所以總結來講就是這一次的這個環台軍演就是局長的意思說事前有掌握有然後呢發生之後也立即有然後低於我們原來預估的強度是這樣﹖可以這樣解釋嗎沒有大概整個判斷的規模跟我們預先的評估是接近的對\n最後一個問題,這樣環台軍演未來會不會常態化?這也是我們特別提醒要關注的,因為這次環台軍演的演習代號是有序號的,稱為聯合力艦2024A\n那就我們對共軍的理解,它有A你不能排除有後續的B或C﹗就會有B,就會有C﹗對,所以它有可能會變成是不同的系列的軍演會有不同的演習科目的進行﹗所以我們預期它會有繼續,繼續除了A之後還會有B的自編系列﹗對,我們不能排除,我們來注意﹗那會不會常態化?環台軍演對台灣來講並不是一個正常的事情﹗是那我們會認為未來會是常態化嗎?\n謝謝委員關心,謝謝。\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.089 --> 00:03.591\n接 下 來 , 請 王 鴻 薇 委 員 上 台 質 詢 。 好 , 謝 謝 主 席 。 我 先 請 陸 委 會 梁 副 主 委 。 請 陸 委 會 梁 副 主 委\n\n00:24.842 --> 00:38.937\n副 主 委 好 , 旅 遊 觀 光 業 非 常 關 心 因 為 馬 上 6 月 份 我 們 又 恢 復 禁 團 令 那 現 在 呢 , 包 含 旅 遊 觀 光 業 他 們 一 直 在 打 聽 6 月 份 的 禁 團 令 有 沒 有 可 能 取 消\n\n00:40.078 --> 00:54.535\n當 然 有 些 是 很 樂 觀 的 但 也 有 些 很 悲 觀 的 因 為 現 在 很 多 的 觀 光 業 都 覺 得 都 已 經 活 不 下 去 所 以 想 請 問 一 下 副 組 委 就 您 所 了 解 6 月 份 的 禁 團 令 還 是 繼 續 的 維 持 嗎\n\n00:56.817 --> 01:23.413\n還 是 在 進 入 倒 數 之 後 尤 其 禮 拜 五 的 時 候 那 個 院 長 會 到 立 法 院 做 實 證 報 告 有 沒 有 可 能 6 月 份 的 禁 團 令 會 有 任 何 的 更 動 我 們 正 在 規 劃 中 那 具 體 要 由 這 個 交 通 部 來 說 明 會 不 會 有 院 長 來 星 期 五 的 時 候 因 為 正 好 是 5 月 3 1 號\n\n01:27.543 --> 01:27.743\n請 蔡 局 長\n\n01:56.909 --> 02:25.876\n好 局 長 剛 才 我 們 美 國 眾 議 院 的 外 交 事 務 委 員 會 主 席 馬 克 歐 剛 才 也 來 這 邊 來 做 參 訪 但 是 呢 因 為 我 們 時 間 非 常 短 我 也 不 好 意 思 去 問 他 這 件 事 情 但 我 覺 得 很 重 要 就 是 因 為 在 媒 體 採 訪 的 時 候 他 特 別 提 出 了 他 說 美 國 對 台 事 務 上 有 一 些 紅 線 是 不 能 跨 越 的\n\n02:26.616 --> 02:32.819\n對 , 就 我 們 對 美 方 長 期 對 台 政 策 的 理 解 他 才 提 到 了 所 謂 不 能 跨 越 紅 線 主 要 重 點 還 是 在 維 持 臺 海 的 和 平 的 現 狀 不 能 夠 容 許 透 過 單 邊 脅 迫 式 的 方 式 來 改 變 現 狀 這 大 概 是 他 們 長 期 政 策 論 述 的 重 點\n\n02:57.266 --> 03:20.027\n你 可 不 可 以 具 體 講 , 那 個 所 謂 的 紅 線 的 意 義 是 什 麼 ? 比 如 說 , 像 北 京 方 面 , 他 講 到 一 個 台 灣 議 題 的 紅 線 , 我 們 大 致 會 知 道 , 因 為 他 會 有 很 多 的 說 法 。 但 是 呢 , 我 覺 得 馬 克 奧 他 的 講 法 是 , 直 接 告 訴 會 有 紅 線 不 能 夠 跨 越 。 所 以 可 不 可 以 有 一 些 具 體 的 , 那 個 所 謂 的 紅 線 是 指 的 什 麼 ?\n\n03:20.828 --> 03:23.470\n所 以 局 長 認 為 我 們 目 前 沒 有 跨 越 紅 線 , 對 不 對 ?\n\n03:41.026 --> 03:56.941\n所 以 這 是 為 什 麼 美 國 的 國 務 院 系 統 還 有 包 括 到 拜 登 總 統 在 西 點 軍 校 的 演 說 都 特 別 提 到 剛 剛 我 跟 委 員 說 明 的 這 些 重 點 另 外 請 教 一 下 就 是 在 賴 總 統 就 職 演 說 後 三 天 北 京 是 無 預 警 的 做 還 台 的 軍 演\n\n03:57.881 --> 04:20.856\n接 下 來 他 又 說 在 東 海 會 接 近 三 週 的 實 彈 射 擊 的 訓 練 我 想 請 問 一 下 包 括 環 台 軍 演 還 有 現 在 的 宣 布 要 三 週 實 彈 射 擊 的 訓 練 請 問 一 下 在 這 之 前 美 方 有 沒 有 通 知 過 台 灣 說 陸 方 要 準 備 進 演\n\n04:22.420 --> 04:50.269\n對 我 想 在 美 國 國 務 院 的 第 一 次 對 外 的 說 明 他 有 針 對 這 個 問 題 對 外 做 解 釋 我 也 跟 委 員 說 明 一 下 他 有 提 到 說 臺 灣 跟 美 國 針 對 中 共 的 軍 事 的 動 態 都 有 進 行 相 關 的 聯 合 的 監 控 的 動 作 這 是 美 方 對 外 說 明 那 我 們 尊 重 這 樣 的 說 法 那 至 於 委 員 在 關 心 的 是 他 沿 海 開 始 劃 設 一 些 禁 航 區 來 進 行 所 謂 的 火 炮 的 試 射 各 位 報 告 的 是 不 只 是 東 海 事 實 上 從 渤 海 地 區\n\n04:51.809 --> 05:01.704\n昨 天 算 了 一 下 大 概 有 六 七 個 進 航 區 的 化 射 那 這 個 比 較 屬 於 是 季 節 性 的 一 個 火 炮 試 射 的 演 訓 對 台 海 的 針 對 性 比 較 沒 有 那 麼 高\n\n05:02.273 --> 05:22.376\n所 以 你 覺 得 在 這 個 東 海 的 部 分 、 渤 海 的 部 分 並 不 是 衝 著 台 灣 來 的 , 可 能 是 衝 著 東 北 亞 而 去 的 。 那 我 還 是 要 很 具 體 的 邀 請 那 個 局 長 能 夠 回 答 , 也 就 是 呢 在 那 麼 我 們 針 對 台 灣 的 環 台 軍 演 , 我 們 在 事 先 有 沒 有 得 到 任 何 的 訊 息 ?\n\n05:23.237 --> 05:36.823\n好 , 這 分 兩 部 分 , 一 個 部 分 是 態 勢 上 的 判 斷 , 在 1 月 1 3 號 選 後 , 我 們 大 概 就 有 做 一 個 概 括 的 分 析 。 但 是 我 不 是 判 斷 , 我 是 說 有 沒 有 得 到 訊 息 , 有 或 者 沒 有 。 我 們 判 斷 歸 判 斷 。 對 對 對 , 我 剛 剛 講 了 兩 部 分 , 一 個 部 分 是 整 體 的 判 斷 , 那 麻 煩 我 幾 秒 鐘 說 明 一 下 。 時 間 快 到 了 。 對 , 就 1 月 1 3 到 5 月 2 0 我 們 認 為 會 有 一 些 軍 事 上 比 較 中 度 的 動 作 。\n\n05:47.608 --> 06:16.115\n那 有 沒 有 超 過 呢 ? 有 沒 有 超 過 我 們 原 來 的 判 斷 ? 目 前 看 起 來 還 好 , 好 , 好 , 第 二 面 現 在 要 講 的 是 還 好 喔 ! 這 所 謂 是 相 對 性 的 , 因 為 我 也 跟 其 他 委 員 說 明 過 , 比 起 去 年 4 月 的 聯 合 立 建 跟 2 0 2 2 年 的 8 月 的 環 台 軍 演 , 這 一 次 的 規 模 並 沒 有 比 過 去 來 得 大 。 那 委 員 關 注 的 是 我 們 事 前 到 底 知 不 知 道 ? 因 為 只 要 他 們 的 船 艦 一 有 什 麼 動 作 , 我 們 都 能 夠 掌 握 , 所 以 大 概 從 他 動 員 的 船 艦 的 數 量 以 及 航 向 的 地 點 , 我 們 可 以 判 斷\n\n06:16.715 --> 06:43.870\n在 他 宣 布 之 前 我 們 已 經 掌 握 消 息 了 嗎 ? 有 有 有 有 有 有 我 們 確 定 有 掌 握 消 息 那 我 再 請 問 一 下 賴 總 統 上 任 之 後 有 沒 有 召 開 過 國 安 會 議 ? 有 我 剛 才 也 跟 有 國 安 首 長 會 議 你 剛 剛 講 有 有 有 好 那 我 請 問 一 下 我 跟 委 員 報 告 一 下 就 是 在 5 2 0 之 後 在 第 一 次 的 總 統 召 開 的 國 安 首 長 會 議 我 們 就 已 經 有 大 概 預 判 了 演 習 的 狀 況 跟 時 間 好 那 我 請 問 一 下 在 他 宣 布 這 個\n\n06:45.111 --> 06:45.532\n總 統 的 指 示 是 什 麼 ?\n\n06:56.600 --> 07:24.151\n對 於 整 個 的 軍 事 動 態 因 為 我 們 都 有 非 常 精 準 的 預 判 那 以 及 全 面 資 訊 的 掌 握 那 有 針 對 這 個 說 法 ﹖ 所 以 總 結 來 講 就 是 這 一 次 的 這 個 環 台 軍 演 就 是 局 長 的 意 思 說 事 前 有 掌 握 有 然 後 呢 發 生 之 後 也 立 即 有 然 後 低 於 我 們 原 來 預 估 的 強 度 是 這 樣 ﹖ 可 以 這 樣 解 釋 嗎 沒 有 大 概 整 個 判 斷 的 規 模 跟 我 們 預 先 的 評 估 是 接 近 的 對\n\n07:25.322 --> 07:29.305\n最 後 一 個 問 題 , 這 樣 環 台 軍 演 未 來 會 不 會 常 態 化 ? 這 也 是 我 們 特 別 提 醒 要 關 注 的 , 因 為 這 次 環 台 軍 演 的 演 習 代 號 是 有 序 號 的 , 稱 為 聯 合 力 艦 2 0 2 4 A\n\n07:43.695 --> 08:00.766\n那 就 我 們 對 共 軍 的 理 解 , 它 有 A 你 不 能 排 除 有 後 續 的 B 或 C ﹗ 就 會 有 B , 就 會 有 C ﹗ 對 , 所 以 它 有 可 能 會 變 成 是 不 同 的 系 列 的 軍 演 會 有 不 同 的 演 習 科 目 的 進 行 ﹗ 所 以 我 們 預 期 它 會 有 繼 續 , 繼 續 除 了 A 之 後 還 會 有 B 的 自 編 系 列 ﹗ 對 , 我 們 不 能 排 除 , 我 們 來 注 意 ﹗ 那 會 不 會 常 態 化 ? 環 台 軍 演 對 台 灣 來 講 並 不 是 一 個 正 常 的 事 情 ﹗ 是 那 我 們 會 認 為 未 來 會 是 常 態 化 嗎 ?\n\n08:07.270 --> 08:07.370\n謝 謝 委 員 關 心 , 謝 謝 。\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.089,"end":3.591,"text":"接下來,請王鴻薇委員上台質詢。好,謝謝主席。我先請陸委會梁副主委。請陸委會梁副主委"},{"start":24.842,"end":38.937,"text":"副主委好,旅遊觀光業非常關心因為馬上6月份我們又恢復禁團令那現在呢,包含旅遊觀光業他們一直在打聽6月份的禁團令有沒有可能取消"},{"start":40.078,"end":54.535,"text":"當然有些是很樂觀的但也有些很悲觀的因為現在很多的觀光業都覺得都已經活不下去所以想請問一下副組委就您所了解6月份的禁團令還是繼續的維持嗎"},{"start":56.817,"end":83.413,"text":"還是在進入倒數之後尤其禮拜五的時候那個院長會到立法院做實證報告有沒有可能6月份的禁團令會有任何的更動我們正在規劃中那具體要由這個交通部來說明會不會有院長來星期五的時候因為正好是5月31號"},{"start":87.543,"end":87.743,"text":"請蔡局長"},{"start":116.909,"end":145.876,"text":"好 局長 剛才我們美國眾議院的外交事務委員會主席馬克歐剛才也來這邊來做參訪但是呢 因為我們時間非常短我也不好意思去問他這件事情但我覺得很重要就是因為在媒體採訪的時候他特別提出了他說美國對台事務上有一些紅線是不能跨越的"},{"start":146.616,"end":152.819,"text":"對,就我們對美方長期對台政策的理解他才提到了所謂不能跨越紅線主要重點還是在維持臺海的和平的現狀不能夠容許透過單邊脅迫式的方式來改變現狀這大概是他們長期政策論述的重點"},{"start":177.266,"end":200.027,"text":"你可不可以具體講,那個所謂的紅線的意義是什麼?比如說,像北京方面,他講到一個台灣議題的紅線,我們大致會知道,因為他會有很多的說法。但是呢,我覺得馬克奧他的講法是,直接告訴會有紅線不能夠跨越。所以可不可以有一些具體的,那個所謂的紅線是指的什麼?"},{"start":200.828,"end":203.47,"text":"所以局長認為我們目前沒有跨越紅線,對不對?"},{"start":221.026,"end":236.941,"text":"所以這是為什麼美國的國務院系統還有包括到拜登總統在西點軍校的演說都特別提到剛剛我跟委員說明的這些重點另外請教一下就是在賴總統就職演說後三天北京是無預警的做還台的軍演"},{"start":237.881,"end":260.856,"text":"接下來他又說在東海會接近三週的實彈射擊的訓練我想請問一下包括環台軍演還有現在的宣布要三週實彈射擊的訓練請問一下在這之前美方有沒有通知過台灣說陸方要準備進演"},{"start":262.42,"end":290.269,"text":"對 我想在美國國務院的第一次對外的說明他有針對這個問題對外做解釋我也跟委員說明一下他有提到說臺灣跟美國針對中共的軍事的動態都有進行相關的聯合的監控的動作這是美方對外說明那我們尊重這樣的說法那至於委員在關心的是他沿海開始劃設一些禁航區來進行所謂的火炮的試射各位報告的是不只是東海事實上從渤海地區"},{"start":291.809,"end":301.704,"text":"昨天算了一下大概有六七個進航區的化射那這個比較屬於是季節性的一個火炮試射的演訓對台海的針對性比較沒有那麼高"},{"start":302.273,"end":322.376,"text":"所以你覺得在這個東海的部分、渤海的部分並不是衝著台灣來的,可能是衝著東北亞而去的。那我還是要很具體的邀請那個局長能夠回答,也就是呢在那麼我們針對台灣的環台軍演,我們在事先有沒有得到任何的訊息?"},{"start":323.237,"end":336.823,"text":"好,這分兩部分,一個部分是態勢上的判斷,在1月13號選後,我們大概就有做一個概括的分析。但是我不是判斷,我是說有沒有得到訊息,有或者沒有。我們判斷歸判斷。對對對,我剛剛講了兩部分,一個部分是整體的判斷,那麻煩我幾秒鐘說明一下。時間快到了。對,就1月13到5月20我們認為會有一些軍事上比較中度的動作。"},{"start":347.608,"end":376.115,"text":"那有沒有超過呢?有沒有超過我們原來的判斷?目前看起來還好,好,好,第二面現在要講的是還好喔!這所謂是相對性的,因為我也跟其他委員說明過,比起去年4月的聯合立建跟2022年的8月的環台軍演,這一次的規模並沒有比過去來得大。那委員關注的是我們事前到底知不知道?因為只要他們的船艦一有什麼動作,我們都能夠掌握,所以大概從他動員的船艦的數量以及航向的地點,我們可以判斷"},{"start":376.715,"end":403.87,"text":"在他宣布之前我們已經掌握消息了嗎?有有有有有有我們確定有掌握消息那我再請問一下賴總統上任之後有沒有召開過國安會議?有我剛才也跟有國安首長會議你剛剛講有有有好那我請問一下我跟委員報告一下就是在520之後在第一次的總統召開的國安首長會議我們就已經有大概預判了演習的狀況跟時間好那我請問一下在他宣布這個"},{"start":405.111,"end":405.532,"text":"總統的指示是什麼?"},{"start":416.6,"end":444.151,"text":"對於整個的軍事動態因為我們都有非常精準的預判那以及全面資訊的掌握那有針對這個說法﹖所以總結來講就是這一次的這個環台軍演就是局長的意思說事前有掌握有然後呢發生之後也立即有然後低於我們原來預估的強度是這樣﹖可以這樣解釋嗎沒有大概整個判斷的規模跟我們預先的評估是接近的對"},{"start":445.322,"end":449.305,"text":"最後一個問題,這樣環台軍演未來會不會常態化?這也是我們特別提醒要關注的,因為這次環台軍演的演習代號是有序號的,稱為聯合力艦2024A"},{"start":463.695,"end":480.766,"text":"那就我們對共軍的理解,它有A你不能排除有後續的B或C﹗就會有B,就會有C﹗對,所以它有可能會變成是不同的系列的軍演會有不同的演習科目的進行﹗所以我們預期它會有繼續,繼續除了A之後還會有B的自編系列﹗對,我們不能排除,我們來注意﹗那會不會常態化?環台軍演對台灣來講並不是一個正常的事情﹗是那我們會認為未來會是常態化嗎?"},{"start":487.27,"end":487.37,"text":"謝謝委員關心,謝謝。"}]}}}}