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\"說\"}, {\"word\": \"之\", \"start\": 16.66, \"end\": 16.86, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"後\", \"start\": 16.86, \"end\": 17.361, \"score\": 0.959}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 17.361, \"end\": 18.442, \"score\": 0.962}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"中\", \"start\": 18.442, \"end\": 18.702, \"score\": 0.923}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"大\", \"start\": 18.702, \"end\": 19.262, \"score\": 0.893}, {\"word\": \"陸\"}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"邊\"}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 19.262, \"end\": 19.442, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"做\", \"start\": 19.442, \"end\": 19.683, \"score\": 0.92}, {\"word\": \"相\", \"start\": 19.683, \"end\": 20.103, \"score\": 0.952}, {\"word\": \"關\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 20.103, \"end\": 20.203, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 20.203, \"end\": 20.443, \"score\": 0.917}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"因\", \"start\": 20.443, \"end\": 20.904, \"score\": 0.924}, {\"word\": \"應\"}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 20.904, \"end\": 21.064, \"score\": 0.996}, {\"word\": \"其\", \"start\": 21.064, \"end\": 21.224, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"中\", \"start\": 21.224, \"end\": 21.784, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 21.784, \"end\": 22.045, \"score\": 0.923}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 22.045, \"end\": 22.405, \"score\": 0.94}, {\"word\": \"禮\"}, {\"word\": \"拜\", \"start\": 22.405, \"end\": 22.525, \"score\": 0.963}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 22.525, \"end\": 22.645, \"score\": 0.979}, {\"word\": \"看\", \"start\": 22.645, \"end\": 22.785, \"score\": 0.991}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 22.785, \"end\": 22.905, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"媒\", \"start\": 22.905, \"end\": 23.266, \"score\": 0.942}, {\"word\": \"體\"}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 23.266, \"end\": 23.826, \"score\": 0.928}, {\"word\": \"報\"}, {\"word\": \"導\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 23.826, \"end\": 24.707, \"score\": 0.963}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 24.707, \"end\": 24.887, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 24.887, \"end\": 26.268, \"score\": 0.971}, {\"word\": \"針\"}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"北\", \"start\": 26.268, \"end\": 26.428, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"京\", \"start\": 26.428, \"end\": 26.849, \"score\": 0.95}, {\"word\": \"當\"}, {\"word\": \"局\", \"start\": 26.849, \"end\": 27.209, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 27.209, \"end\": 27.469, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"做\", \"start\": 27.469, \"end\": 27.79, \"score\": 0.962}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 27.79, \"end\": 28.73, \"score\": 0.957}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 28.73, \"end\": 28.891, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"採\"}, {\"word\": \"取\", \"start\": 28.891, \"end\": 29.071, \"score\": 0.889}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 29.071, \"end\": 29.251, \"score\": 0.889}, {\"word\": \"行\", \"start\": 29.251, \"end\": 29.611, \"score\": 0.942}, {\"word\": \"動\"}, {\"word\": \"做\", \"start\": 29.611, \"end\": 29.811, \"score\": 0.913}, {\"word\": \"推\", \"start\": 29.811, \"end\": 30.032, \"score\": 0.909}, {\"word\": \"演\", \"start\": 30.032, \"end\": 30.432, \"score\": 0.95}, {\"word\": \"而\", \"start\": 30.432, \"end\": 30.692, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"最\", \"start\": 30.692, \"end\": 30.952, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"後\", \"start\": 30.952, \"end\": 31.613, \"score\": 0.939}, {\"word\": \"軍\"}, {\"word\": \"演\", \"start\": 31.613, \"end\": 31.893, \"score\": 0.946}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 31.893, \"end\": 32.133, \"score\": 0.96}, {\"word\": \"最\", \"start\": 32.133, \"end\": 32.374, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"糟\", \"start\": 32.374, \"end\": 32.634, \"score\": 0.935}, {\"word\": \"糕\", \"start\": 32.634, \"end\": 32.814, \"score\": 0.9}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 32.814, \"end\": 33.214, \"score\": 0.95}, {\"word\": \"劇\"}, {\"word\": \"本\", \"start\": 33.214, \"end\": 34.736, \"score\": 0.951}, {\"word\": \"針\"}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"部\", \"start\": 34.736, \"end\": 34.896, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"分\", \"start\": 34.896, \"end\": 35.156, \"score\": 0.99}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 35.156, \"end\": 35.276, \"score\": 0.939}, {\"word\": \"什\", \"start\": 35.276, \"end\": 35.596, \"score\": 0.876}, {\"word\": \"麼\"}, {\"word\": \"樣\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 35.596, \"end\": 35.696, \"score\": 0.835}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 35.696, \"end\": 35.977, \"score\": 0.861}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"明\", \"start\": 35.977, \"end\": 35.997, \"score\": 0.096}]}, {\"start\": 36.604, \"end\": 39.005, \"text\": \"因為就這個匿名的國安人員陳述他有被認為是國安局的一種非正式的表態\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"因\", \"start\": 36.604, \"end\": 37.024, \"score\": 0.903}, {\"word\": \"為\"}, {\"word\": \"就\", \"start\": 37.024, \"end\": 37.224, \"score\": 0.9}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"匿\"}, {\"word\": \"名\", \"start\": 37.224, \"end\": 37.444, \"score\": 0.909}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 37.444, \"end\": 37.564, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"安\", \"start\": 37.564, \"end\": 37.584, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"人\", \"start\": 37.584, \"end\": 37.724, \"score\": 0.857}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"陳\"}, {\"word\": \"述\", \"start\": 37.724, \"end\": 37.905, \"score\": 0.889}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 37.905, \"end\": 38.045, \"score\": 0.857}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 38.045, \"end\": 38.105, \"score\": 0.666}, {\"word\": \"被\", \"start\": 38.105, \"end\": 38.205, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"認\"}, {\"word\": \"為\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 38.205, \"end\": 38.325, \"score\": 0.833}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"安\", \"start\": 38.325, \"end\": 38.425, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"局\", \"start\": 38.425, \"end\": 38.485, \"score\": 0.666}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 38.485, \"end\": 38.545, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 38.545, \"end\": 38.565, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"種\"}, {\"word\": \"非\", \"start\": 38.565, \"end\": 38.605, \"score\": 0.5}, {\"word\": \"正\", \"start\": 38.605, \"end\": 38.825, \"score\": 0.909}, {\"word\": \"式\", \"start\": 38.825, \"end\": 38.925, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 38.925, \"end\": 38.985, \"score\": 0.667}, {\"word\": \"表\", \"start\": 38.985, \"end\": 39.005, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"態\"}]}, {\"start\": 64.955, \"end\": 91.463, \"text\": \"那但是除了軍事演習以外,國安局當時還預設了陸方有可能有哪些不同的反應?對,就中共的可能對台施壓的動作,一種狀況是他有例行的聯合戰備警巡那這種聯合戰備警巡他會擴大化,擴大版,這是一種樣態那第二種他會在有特殊的水面兵力或空中兵力的邊阻到我們的周邊海空域來進行針對性的演習\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 64.955, \"end\": 65.095, \"score\": 0.706}, {\"word\": \"但\", \"start\": 65.095, \"end\": 65.275, \"score\": 0.977}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 65.275, \"end\": 65.675, \"score\": 0.955}, {\"word\": \"除\", \"start\": 65.675, \"end\": 65.875, \"score\": 0.994}, {\"word\": \"了\", \"start\": 65.875, \"end\": 66.235, \"score\": 0.885}, {\"word\": \"軍\"}, {\"word\": \"事\", \"start\": 66.235, \"end\": 66.355, \"score\": 0.895}, {\"word\": \"演\", \"start\": 66.355, \"end\": 66.656, \"score\": 0.888}, {\"word\": \"習\"}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 66.656, \"end\": 66.796, \"score\": 0.968}, {\"word\": \"外\", \"start\": 66.796, \"end\": 67.056, \"score\": 0.872}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"安\", \"start\": 67.056, \"end\": 67.356, \"score\": 0.933}, {\"word\": \"局\", \"start\": 67.356, \"end\": 69.116, \"score\": 0.938}, {\"word\": \"當\"}, {\"word\": \"時\"}, {\"word\": \"還\"}, {\"word\": \"預\"}, {\"word\": \"設\"}, {\"word\": \"了\", \"start\": 69.116, \"end\": 69.496, \"score\": 0.94}, {\"word\": \"陸\"}, {\"word\": \"方\", \"start\": 69.496, \"end\": 69.636, \"score\": 0.912}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 69.636, \"end\": 69.776, \"score\": 0.981}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 69.776, \"end\": 69.916, \"score\": 0.844}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 69.916, \"end\": 69.997, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 69.997, \"end\": 70.137, \"score\": 0.952}, {\"word\": \"哪\", \"start\": 70.137, \"end\": 70.277, \"score\": 0.856}, {\"word\": \"些\", \"start\": 70.277, \"end\": 70.417, \"score\": 0.985}, {\"word\": \"不\", \"start\": 70.417, \"end\": 70.517, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"同\", \"start\": 70.517, \"end\": 70.657, \"score\": 0.993}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 70.657, \"end\": 70.757, \"score\": 0.991}, {\"word\": \"反\", \"start\": 70.757, \"end\": 71.977, \"score\": 0.933}, {\"word\": \"應\"}, {\"word\": \"?\"}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"就\", \"start\": 71.977, \"end\": 72.717, \"score\": 0.945}, {\"word\": \"中\", \"start\": 72.717, \"end\": 72.917, \"score\": 0.994}, {\"word\": \"共\", \"start\": 72.917, \"end\": 73.097, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 73.097, \"end\": 73.257, \"score\": 0.99}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 73.257, \"end\": 73.418, \"score\": 0.973}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 73.418, \"end\": 73.798, \"score\": 0.923}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"台\", \"start\": 73.798, \"end\": 74.058, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"施\", \"start\": 74.058, \"end\": 74.358, \"score\": 0.819}, {\"word\": \"壓\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 74.358, \"end\": 74.678, \"score\": 0.936}, {\"word\": \"動\"}, {\"word\": \"作\", \"start\": 74.678, \"end\": 75.238, \"score\": 0.971}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 75.238, \"end\": 76.018, \"score\": 0.891}, {\"word\": \"種\"}, {\"word\": \"狀\"}, {\"word\": \"況\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 76.018, \"end\": 76.198, \"score\": 0.905}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 76.198, \"end\": 76.358, \"score\": 0.951}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 76.358, \"end\": 76.538, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"例\", \"start\": 76.538, \"end\": 76.739, \"score\": 0.853}, {\"word\": \"行\", \"start\": 76.739, \"end\": 76.999, \"score\": 0.934}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 76.999, \"end\": 77.679, \"score\": 0.964}, {\"word\": \"聯\"}, {\"word\": \"合\", \"start\": 77.679, \"end\": 78.419, \"score\": 0.942}, {\"word\": \"戰\"}, {\"word\": \"備\"}, {\"word\": \"警\", \"start\": 78.419, \"end\": 78.619, \"score\": 0.954}, {\"word\": \"巡\", \"start\": 78.619, \"end\": 79.219, \"score\": 0.967}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 79.219, \"end\": 79.739, \"score\": 0.793}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"種\"}, {\"word\": \"聯\"}, {\"word\": \"合\", \"start\": 79.739, \"end\": 79.999, \"score\": 0.836}, {\"word\": \"戰\"}, {\"word\": \"備\"}, {\"word\": \"警\", \"start\": 79.999, \"end\": 80.14, \"score\": 0.958}, {\"word\": \"巡\", \"start\": 80.14, \"end\": 80.28, \"score\": 0.85}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 80.28, \"end\": 80.78, \"score\": 0.814}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"擴\"}, {\"word\": \"大\", \"start\": 80.78, \"end\": 80.96, \"score\": 0.994}, {\"word\": \"化\", \"start\": 80.96, \"end\": 81.54, \"score\": 0.923}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"擴\"}, {\"word\": \"大\", \"start\": 81.54, \"end\": 81.72, \"score\": 0.984}, {\"word\": \"版\", \"start\": 81.72, \"end\": 82.06, \"score\": 0.815}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 82.06, \"end\": 82.12, \"score\": 0.99}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 82.12, \"end\": 83.14, \"score\": 0.902}, {\"word\": \"種\"}, {\"word\": \"樣\"}, {\"word\": \"態\"}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 83.14, \"end\": 83.26, \"score\": 0.98}, {\"word\": \"第\", \"start\": 83.26, \"end\": 83.38, \"score\": 0.84}, {\"word\": \"二\", \"start\": 83.38, \"end\": 83.661, \"score\": 0.813}, {\"word\": \"種\"}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 83.661, \"end\": 84.061, \"score\": 0.86}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"在\", \"start\": 84.061, \"end\": 84.261, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 84.261, \"end\": 84.501, \"score\": 0.97}, {\"word\": \"特\", \"start\": 84.501, \"end\": 84.721, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"殊\", \"start\": 84.721, \"end\": 84.961, \"score\": 0.914}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 84.961, \"end\": 85.561, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"水\", \"start\": 85.561, \"end\": 85.721, \"score\": 0.872}, {\"word\": \"面\", \"start\": 85.721, \"end\": 86.021, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"兵\", \"start\": 86.021, \"end\": 86.241, \"score\": 0.966}, {\"word\": \"力\", \"start\": 86.241, \"end\": 86.481, \"score\": 0.951}, {\"word\": \"或\", \"start\": 86.481, \"end\": 86.681, \"score\": 0.978}, {\"word\": \"空\", \"start\": 86.681, \"end\": 86.842, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"中\", \"start\": 86.842, \"end\": 87.062, \"score\": 0.995}, {\"word\": \"兵\", \"start\": 87.062, \"end\": 87.222, \"score\": 0.964}, {\"word\": \"力\", \"start\": 87.222, \"end\": 87.382, \"score\": 0.864}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 87.382, \"end\": 87.842, \"score\": 0.956}, {\"word\": \"邊\"}, {\"word\": \"阻\", \"start\": 87.842, \"end\": 88.382, \"score\": 0.933}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 88.382, \"end\": 88.522, \"score\": 0.916}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 88.522, \"end\": 88.722, \"score\": 0.799}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 88.722, \"end\": 88.822, \"score\": 0.948}, {\"word\": \"周\", \"start\": 88.822, \"end\": 89.162, \"score\": 0.907}, {\"word\": \"邊\"}, {\"word\": \"海\", \"start\": 89.162, \"end\": 89.362, \"score\": 0.899}, {\"word\": \"空\", \"start\": 89.362, \"end\": 89.562, \"score\": 0.996}, {\"word\": \"域\", \"start\": 89.562, \"end\": 90.323, \"score\": 0.86}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"進\"}, {\"word\": \"行\", \"start\": 90.323, \"end\": 91.063, \"score\": 0.914}, {\"word\": \"針\"}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"性\", \"start\": 91.063, \"end\": 91.243, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 91.243, \"end\": 91.443, \"score\": 0.997}, {\"word\": \"演\", \"start\": 91.443, \"end\": 91.463, \"score\": 0.478}, {\"word\": \"習\"}]}, {\"start\": 91.903, \"end\": 93.444, \"text\": \"所以說算是相對來講是我們有預設但是是比較過激的一個動作\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"所\", \"start\": 91.903, \"end\": 91.923, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 91.923, \"end\": 92.023, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"算\", \"start\": 92.023, \"end\": 92.103, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 92.103, \"end\": 92.163, \"score\": 0.666}, {\"word\": \"相\", \"start\": 92.163, \"end\": 92.383, \"score\": 0.909}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"講\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 92.383, \"end\": 92.503, \"score\": 0.833}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 92.503, \"end\": 92.603, \"score\": 0.996}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 92.603, \"end\": 92.623, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"預\"}, {\"word\": \"設\"}, {\"word\": \"但\", \"start\": 92.623, \"end\": 92.643, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 92.643, \"end\": 92.683, \"score\": 0.5}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 92.683, \"end\": 92.843, \"score\": 0.876}, {\"word\": \"比\", \"start\": 92.843, \"end\": 93.004, \"score\": 0.875}, {\"word\": \"較\"}, {\"word\": \"過\"}, {\"word\": \"激\", \"start\": 93.004, \"end\": 93.164, \"score\": 0.868}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 93.164, \"end\": 93.284, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 93.284, \"end\": 93.424, \"score\": 0.854}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": 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{\"word\": \"形\", \"start\": 376.81, \"end\": 376.85, \"score\": 0.5}, {\"word\": \"沒\", \"start\": 376.85, \"end\": 377.03, \"score\": 0.889}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 377.03, \"end\": 377.171, \"score\": 0.857}, {\"word\": \"進\"}, {\"word\": \"入\", \"start\": 377.171, \"end\": 377.631, \"score\": 0.956}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 377.631, \"end\": 377.711, \"score\": 0.995}, {\"word\": \"沒\", \"start\": 377.711, \"end\": 377.731, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 377.731, \"end\": 377.751, \"score\": 0.0}]}, {\"start\": 382.81, \"end\": 409.67, \"text\": \"但是在這個部分如果說因為套土的狀況而造成這個落差會不會有導致擦槍走火的可能性會增加對這個部分就必須要透過國安單位跟國軍聯合情監偵的系統來掌握它實際軍事特別是基建他們活動的區域跟範圍局長所以剛剛也提到嘛王洪威委員剛剛也質詢是說未來有可能這樣的一個軍演有常態化的一個趨勢這是您的判斷\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"但\", \"start\": 382.81, \"end\": 383.011, \"score\": 0.99}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 383.011, \"end\": 383.351, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"在\", \"start\": 383.351, \"end\": 384.051, \"score\": 0.913}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, 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狀 況 是 他 有 例 行 的 聯 合 戰 備 警 巡 那 這 種 聯 合 戰 備 警 巡 他 會 擴 大 化 , 擴 大 版 , 這 是 一 種 樣 態 那 第 二 種 他 會 在 有 特 殊 的 水 面 兵 力 或 空 中 兵 力 的 邊 阻 到 我 們 的 周 邊 海 空 域 來 進 行 針 對 性 的 演 習\n\n5\n00:01:31,903 --> 00:01:33,444\n所 以 說 算 是 相 對 來 講 是 我 們 有 預 設 但 是 是 比 較 過 激 的 一 個 動 作\n\n6\n00:01:47,791 --> 00:02:08,897\n沒 有 , 就 這 要 看 相 對 性 , 假 如 說 你 要 比 起 日 常 的 聯 合 戰 備 警 巡 , 它 規 模 是 比 較 大 一 點 , 兵 力 集 結 狀 況 也 比 較 規 模 大 , 那 但 是 你 要 是 再 比 較 到 2 0 2 3 年 4 月 的 聯 合 歷 艦 , 還 有 2 0 2 2 年 8 月 的 環 台 軍 演 , 規 模 又 沒 有 那 麼 大 , 因 為 這 一 次 並 沒 有 進 行 那 個 進 航 區 的 劃 射 , 那 也 沒 有 進 行 實 彈 的 演 訓 。\n\n7\n00:02:13,678 --> 00:02:17,841\n不 過 局 長 , 我 想 針 對 你 的 專 業 判 斷 也 秉 持 你 所 提 出 來 情 報 五 顏 色 這 樣 的 一 個 精 神 。 我 可 以 請 教 在 這 一 次 賴 清 德 總 統 他 的 就 職 演 說 相 對 於 前 兩 次 蔡 英 文 總 統 的 就 職 演 說\n\n8\n00:02:34,754 --> 00:02:47,608\n2 0 1 6 跟 2 0 2 0 分 別 有 提 到 中 華 民 國 憲 法 以 及 兩 岸 人 民 關 係 條 例 在 這 一 次 賴 清 德 總 統 演 說 裡 面 並 沒 有 提 到 兩 岸 人 民 關 係 條 例 有 沒 有 激 化 或 是 讓 兩 岸 的 形 勢 更 加 緊 張 的 狀 況\n\n9\n00:02:49,110 --> 00:02:50,331\n中 共 的 涉 台 系 統 有 在 提 到 中 華 民 國 跟 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 互 不 隸 屬 的 這 個\n\n10\n00:03:17,768 --> 00:03:19,550\n蔡 總 統 有 釋 放 善 意 以 及 國 內 外 社 會 對 相 關 的 談 話\n\n11\n00:03:41,371 --> 00:03:44,013\n所 以 局 長 其 實 就 你 身 為 一 個 綜 合 判 斷 的 幕 僚 的 部 分 在 賴 清 德 總 統 的 這 個 就 職 演 說 講 稿 事 先 您 理 解 嗎 ?\n\n12\n00:04:08,450 --> 00:04:28,475\n您 的 這 個 判 斷 跟 方 向 是 事 先 理 解 之 後 您 綜 合 給 予 賴 總 統 的 一 個 判 斷 還 是 看 到 講 稿 之 後 才 去 做 的 這 樣 的 一 個 綜 合 分 析 我 們 給 決 策 者 的 一 個 相 關 的 分 析 會 聚 焦 在 整 體 的 態 勢 特 別 是 中 共 可 能 在 什 麼 情 況 之 下 會 採 取 什 麼 行 動 這 種 態 勢 的 分 析\n\n13\n00:04:30,976 --> 00:04:51,438\n這 要 由 決 策 者 來 針 對 這 個 態 勢 分 析 來 決 斷 他 在 講 稿 當 中 要 怎 麼 樣 來 論 述 他 的 一 個 內 容 講 稿 內 容 你 沒 有 任 何 的 建 議 對 , 就 情 報 單 位 來 講 我 們 並 不 是 總 統 的 幕 僚 那 這 有 文 稿 小 組 會 針 對 相 關 的 狀 況 來 擬 稿 然 後 再 由 決 策 者 來 做 最 後 的 判 斷 好\n\n14\n00:04:52,904 --> 00:05:11,114\n局 長 另 外 一 個 部 分 我 想 請 教 因 為 當 然 這 一 次 這 個 軍 演 的 狀 況 也 發 生 那 本 席 也 看 到 就 是 說 在 媒 體 報 導 我 們 軍 演 共 軍 軍 演 的 這 個 操 演 區 跟 國 軍 所 公 布 的 這 個 操 演 區 其 實 落 差 是 有 一 段 的 距 離\n\n15\n00:05:12,054 --> 00:05:23,802\n那 尤 其 是 像 本 席 的 新 北 第 一 選 區 北 海 岸 超 延 區 居 然 偏 移 了 6 0 公 里 以 上 那 6 0 公 里 以 上 其 實 相 對 來 說 我 們 有 一 些 鄉 親 會 覺 得 說 怎 麼 會 有 這 樣 的 一 個 落 差\n\n16\n00:05:24,929 --> 00:05:43,992\n能 不 能 說 明 一 下 , 為 什 麼 會 有 這 樣 的 後 製 ? 好 , 跟 委 員 說 明 一 下 , 剛 剛 事 實 上 陳 永 康 委 員 也 在 質 詢 的 時 候 有 稍 微 提 到 這 個 觀 點 , 那 他 也 提 出 他 的 觀 察 , 我 也 很 尊 重 。 也 就 是 說 中 共 這 一 次 劃 設 的 總 共 有 九 個 啦 , 有 九 個 的 演 習 區 域 , 那 他 有 標 示 那 個 區 域 的 地 點 , 那 但 是 因 為 他 並 沒 有 提 供 座 標 。\n\n17\n00:05:44,853 --> 00:06:07,001\n那 在 沒 有 坐 標 情 況 之 下 國 防 部 也 針 對 中 共 的 演 習 的 區 域 再 去 做 套 圖 來 畫 出 我 們 認 為 他 演 習 區 域 的 可 能 的 確 實 的 地 點 所 以 造 成 因 為 沒 有 坐 標 之 下 會 有 些 落 差 但 是 跟 委 員 說 明 的 那 個 兩 個 的 圖 的 差 距 是 在 於 中 共 的 公 布 的 演 習 的 區 域 有 涵 蓋 到 我 們 的 2 4 海 里 的 海 空 域 那 我 們 的 沒 有\n\n18\n00:06:07,361 --> 00:06:17,751\n那 跟 委 員 報 告 的 是 在 事 實 上 整 個 軍 演 操 作 過 程 當 中 共 軍 的 基 建 並 沒 有 進 入 到 所 謂 的 二 次 海 域 這 是 沒 有 的 這 是 從 演 習 的 實 際 狀 況 的 狀 況 而 情 形 沒 有 進 入 的 沒 有\n\n19\n00:06:22,810 --> 00:06:49,670\n但 是 在 這 個 部 分 如 果 說 因 為 套 土 的 狀 況 而 造 成 這 個 落 差 會 不 會 有 導 致 擦 槍 走 火 的 可 能 性 會 增 加 對 這 個 部 分 就 必 須 要 透 過 國 安 單 位 跟 國 軍 聯 合 情 監 偵 的 系 統 來 掌 握 它 實 際 軍 事 特 別 是 基 建 他 們 活 動 的 區 域 跟 範 圍 局 長 所 以 剛 剛 也 提 到 嘛 王 洪 威 委 員 剛 剛 也 質 詢 是 說 未 來 有 可 能 這 樣 的 一 個 軍 演 有 常 態 化 的 一 個 趨 勢 這 是 您 的 判 斷\n\n20\n00:06:50,430 --> 00:07:09,108\n那 如 果 說 每 一 次 的 這 個 狀 況 都 變 成 是 資 訊 上 的 落 差 的 話 , 我 們 能 夠 用 怎 麼 樣 的 一 個 增 進 的 空 間 ? 大 概 有 兩 個 部 分 , 一 個 部 分 當 然 要 去 了 解 中 共 劃 設 的 這 些 演 習 區 域 的 實 際 的 位 置 以 及 這 些 位 置 可 能 反 映 出 中 共 犯 台 的 預 案\n\n21\n00:07:09,568 --> 00:07:30,707\n他 的 可 能 的 操 作 為 什 麼 會 選 在 這 個 地 區 這 是 第 一 部 分 那 第 二 部 分 當 然 是 我 們 自 己 在 做 因 應 的 時 候 也 必 須 要 能 夠 來 掌 握 實 際 上 中 共 在 畫 完 之 後 實 際 的 演 習 的 動 作 那 有 沒 有 依 照 他 的 畫 色 的 區 域 或 是 有 沒 有 更 進 一 步 來 侵 犯 到 我 們 的 海 空 域 大 概 有 這 兩 個 主 要 的 觀 察 的 重 點\n\n22\n00:07:31,347 --> 00:07:31,908\n對 , 謝 謝 委 員 提 醒 。 謝 謝 。\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n89\t971\t請國安局蔡局長\n8513\t35997\t好,謝謝主席,洪委員好好,蔡局長我想很多委員都已經關心就是賴總統520就職演說之後那這個中國大陸這邊有做相關的一個因應那其中我們上禮拜有看到媒體有報導是說也有針對北京當局有做可能採取的行動做推演而最後軍演是最糟糕的劇本針對這部分有什麼樣的一個說明\n36604\t39005\t因為就這個匿名的國安人員陳述他有被認為是國安局的一種非正式的表態\n64955\t91463\t那但是除了軍事演習以外,國安局當時還預設了陸方有可能有哪些不同的反應?對,就中共的可能對台施壓的動作,一種狀況是他有例行的聯合戰備警巡那這種聯合戰備警巡他會擴大化,擴大版,這是一種樣態那第二種他會在有特殊的水面兵力或空中兵力的邊阻到我們的周邊海空域來進行針對性的演習\n91903\t93444\t所以說算是相對來講是我們有預設但是是比較過激的一個動作\n107791\t128897\t沒有,就這要看相對性,假如說你要比起日常的聯合戰備警巡,它規模是比較大一點,兵力集結狀況也比較規模大,那但是你要是再比較到2023年4月的聯合歷艦,還有2022年8月的環台軍演,規模又沒有那麼大,因為這一次並沒有進行那個進航區的劃射,那也沒有進行實彈的演訓。\n133678\t137841\t不過局長,我想針對你的專業判斷也秉持你所提出來情報五顏色這樣的一個精神。我可以請教在這一次賴清德總統他的就職演說相對於前兩次蔡英文總統的就職演說\n154754\t167608\t2016跟2020分別有提到中華民國憲法以及兩岸人民關係條例在這一次賴清德總統演說裡面並沒有提到兩岸人民關係條例有沒有激化或是讓兩岸的形勢更加緊張的狀況\n169110\t170331\t中共的涉台系統有在提到中華民國跟中華人民共和國互不隸屬的這個\n197768\t199550\t蔡總統有釋放善意以及國內外社會對相關的談話\n221371\t224013\t所以局長其實就你身為一個綜合判斷的幕僚的部分在賴清德總統的這個就職演說講稿事先您理解嗎?\n248450\t268475\t您的這個判斷跟方向是事先理解之後您綜合給予賴總統的一個判斷還是看到講稿之後才去做的這樣的一個綜合分析我們給決策者的一個相關的分析會聚焦在整體的態勢特別是中共可能在什麼情況之下會採取什麼行動這種態勢的分析\n270976\t291438\t這要由決策者來針對這個態勢分析來決斷他在講稿當中要怎麼樣來論述他的一個內容講稿內容你沒有任何的建議對,就情報單位來講我們並不是總統的幕僚那這有文稿小組會針對相關的狀況來擬稿然後再由決策者來做最後的判斷好\n292904\t311114\t局長另外一個部分我想請教因為當然這一次這個軍演的狀況也發生那本席也看到就是說在媒體報導我們軍演共軍軍演的這個操演區跟國軍所公布的這個操演區其實落差是有一段的距離\n312054\t323802\t那尤其是像本席的新北第一選區北海岸超延區居然偏移了60公里以上那60公里以上其實相對來說我們有一些鄉親會覺得說怎麼會有這樣的一個落差\n324929\t343992\t能不能說明一下,為什麼會有這樣的後製?好,跟委員說明一下,剛剛事實上陳永康委員也在質詢的時候有稍微提到這個觀點,那他也提出他的觀察,我也很尊重。也就是說中共這一次劃設的總共有九個啦,有九個的演習區域,那他有標示那個區域的地點,那但是因為他並沒有提供座標。\n344853\t367001\t那在沒有坐標情況之下國防部也針對中共的演習的區域再去做套圖來畫出我們認為他演習區域的可能的確實的地點所以造成因為沒有坐標之下會有些落差但是跟委員說明的那個兩個的圖的差距是在於中共的公布的演習的區域有涵蓋到我們的24海里的海空域那我們的沒有\n367361\t377751\t那跟委員報告的是在事實上整個軍演操作過程當中共軍的基建並沒有進入到所謂的二次海域這是沒有的這是從演習的實際狀況的狀況而情形沒有進入的沒有\n382810\t409670\t但是在這個部分如果說因為套土的狀況而造成這個落差會不會有導致擦槍走火的可能性會增加對這個部分就必須要透過國安單位跟國軍聯合情監偵的系統來掌握它實際軍事特別是基建他們活動的區域跟範圍局長所以剛剛也提到嘛王洪威委員剛剛也質詢是說未來有可能這樣的一個軍演有常態化的一個趨勢這是您的判斷\n410430\t429108\t那如果說每一次的這個狀況都變成是資訊上的落差的話,我們能夠用怎麼樣的一個增進的空間?大概有兩個部分,一個部分當然要去了解中共劃設的這些演習區域的實際的位置以及這些位置可能反映出中共犯台的預案\n429568\t450707\t他的可能的操作為什麼會選在這個地區這是第一部分那第二部分當然是我們自己在做因應的時候也必須要能夠來掌握實際上中共在畫完之後實際的演習的動作那有沒有依照他的畫色的區域或是有沒有更進一步來侵犯到我們的海空域大概有這兩個主要的觀察的重點\n451347\t451908\t對,謝謝委員提醒。謝謝。\n","txt":"請國安局蔡局長\n好,謝謝主席,洪委員好好,蔡局長我想很多委員都已經關心就是賴總統520就職演說之後那這個中國大陸這邊有做相關的一個因應那其中我們上禮拜有看到媒體有報導是說也有針對北京當局有做可能採取的行動做推演而最後軍演是最糟糕的劇本針對這部分有什麼樣的一個說明\n因為就這個匿名的國安人員陳述他有被認為是國安局的一種非正式的表態\n那但是除了軍事演習以外,國安局當時還預設了陸方有可能有哪些不同的反應?對,就中共的可能對台施壓的動作,一種狀況是他有例行的聯合戰備警巡那這種聯合戰備警巡他會擴大化,擴大版,這是一種樣態那第二種他會在有特殊的水面兵力或空中兵力的邊阻到我們的周邊海空域來進行針對性的演習\n所以說算是相對來講是我們有預設但是是比較過激的一個動作\n沒有,就這要看相對性,假如說你要比起日常的聯合戰備警巡,它規模是比較大一點,兵力集結狀況也比較規模大,那但是你要是再比較到2023年4月的聯合歷艦,還有2022年8月的環台軍演,規模又沒有那麼大,因為這一次並沒有進行那個進航區的劃射,那也沒有進行實彈的演訓。\n不過局長,我想針對你的專業判斷也秉持你所提出來情報五顏色這樣的一個精神。我可以請教在這一次賴清德總統他的就職演說相對於前兩次蔡英文總統的就職演說\n2016跟2020分別有提到中華民國憲法以及兩岸人民關係條例在這一次賴清德總統演說裡面並沒有提到兩岸人民關係條例有沒有激化或是讓兩岸的形勢更加緊張的狀況\n中共的涉台系統有在提到中華民國跟中華人民共和國互不隸屬的這個\n蔡總統有釋放善意以及國內外社會對相關的談話\n所以局長其實就你身為一個綜合判斷的幕僚的部分在賴清德總統的這個就職演說講稿事先您理解嗎?\n您的這個判斷跟方向是事先理解之後您綜合給予賴總統的一個判斷還是看到講稿之後才去做的這樣的一個綜合分析我們給決策者的一個相關的分析會聚焦在整體的態勢特別是中共可能在什麼情況之下會採取什麼行動這種態勢的分析\n這要由決策者來針對這個態勢分析來決斷他在講稿當中要怎麼樣來論述他的一個內容講稿內容你沒有任何的建議對,就情報單位來講我們並不是總統的幕僚那這有文稿小組會針對相關的狀況來擬稿然後再由決策者來做最後的判斷好\n局長另外一個部分我想請教因為當然這一次這個軍演的狀況也發生那本席也看到就是說在媒體報導我們軍演共軍軍演的這個操演區跟國軍所公布的這個操演區其實落差是有一段的距離\n那尤其是像本席的新北第一選區北海岸超延區居然偏移了60公里以上那60公里以上其實相對來說我們有一些鄉親會覺得說怎麼會有這樣的一個落差\n能不能說明一下,為什麼會有這樣的後製?好,跟委員說明一下,剛剛事實上陳永康委員也在質詢的時候有稍微提到這個觀點,那他也提出他的觀察,我也很尊重。也就是說中共這一次劃設的總共有九個啦,有九個的演習區域,那他有標示那個區域的地點,那但是因為他並沒有提供座標。\n那在沒有坐標情況之下國防部也針對中共的演習的區域再去做套圖來畫出我們認為他演習區域的可能的確實的地點所以造成因為沒有坐標之下會有些落差但是跟委員說明的那個兩個的圖的差距是在於中共的公布的演習的區域有涵蓋到我們的24海里的海空域那我們的沒有\n那跟委員報告的是在事實上整個軍演操作過程當中共軍的基建並沒有進入到所謂的二次海域這是沒有的這是從演習的實際狀況的狀況而情形沒有進入的沒有\n但是在這個部分如果說因為套土的狀況而造成這個落差會不會有導致擦槍走火的可能性會增加對這個部分就必須要透過國安單位跟國軍聯合情監偵的系統來掌握它實際軍事特別是基建他們活動的區域跟範圍局長所以剛剛也提到嘛王洪威委員剛剛也質詢是說未來有可能這樣的一個軍演有常態化的一個趨勢這是您的判斷\n那如果說每一次的這個狀況都變成是資訊上的落差的話,我們能夠用怎麼樣的一個增進的空間?大概有兩個部分,一個部分當然要去了解中共劃設的這些演習區域的實際的位置以及這些位置可能反映出中共犯台的預案\n他的可能的操作為什麼會選在這個地區這是第一部分那第二部分當然是我們自己在做因應的時候也必須要能夠來掌握實際上中共在畫完之後實際的演習的動作那有沒有依照他的畫色的區域或是有沒有更進一步來侵犯到我們的海空域大概有這兩個主要的觀察的重點\n對,謝謝委員提醒。謝謝。\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.089 --> 00:00.971\n請 國 安 局 蔡 局 長\n\n00:08.513 --> 00:35.997\n好 , 謝 謝 主 席 , 洪 委 員 好 好 , 蔡 局 長 我 想 很 多 委 員 都 已 經 關 心 就 是 賴 總 統 5 2 0 就 職 演 說 之 後 那 這 個 中 國 大 陸 這 邊 有 做 相 關 的 一 個 因 應 那 其 中 我 們 上 禮 拜 有 看 到 媒 體 有 報 導 是 說 也 有 針 對 北 京 當 局 有 做 可 能 採 取 的 行 動 做 推 演 而 最 後 軍 演 是 最 糟 糕 的 劇 本 針 對 這 部 分 有 什 麼 樣 的 一 個 說 明\n\n00:36.604 --> 00:39.005\n因 為 就 這 個 匿 名 的 國 安 人 員 陳 述 他 有 被 認 為 是 國 安 局 的 一 種 非 正 式 的 表 態\n\n01:04.955 --> 01:31.463\n那 但 是 除 了 軍 事 演 習 以 外 , 國 安 局 當 時 還 預 設 了 陸 方 有 可 能 有 哪 些 不 同 的 反 應 ? 對 , 就 中 共 的 可 能 對 台 施 壓 的 動 作 , 一 種 狀 況 是 他 有 例 行 的 聯 合 戰 備 警 巡 那 這 種 聯 合 戰 備 警 巡 他 會 擴 大 化 , 擴 大 版 , 這 是 一 種 樣 態 那 第 二 種 他 會 在 有 特 殊 的 水 面 兵 力 或 空 中 兵 力 的 邊 阻 到 我 們 的 周 邊 海 空 域 來 進 行 針 對 性 的 演 習\n\n01:31.903 --> 01:33.444\n所 以 說 算 是 相 對 來 講 是 我 們 有 預 設 但 是 是 比 較 過 激 的 一 個 動 作\n\n01:47.791 --> 02:08.897\n沒 有 , 就 這 要 看 相 對 性 , 假 如 說 你 要 比 起 日 常 的 聯 合 戰 備 警 巡 , 它 規 模 是 比 較 大 一 點 , 兵 力 集 結 狀 況 也 比 較 規 模 大 , 那 但 是 你 要 是 再 比 較 到 2 0 2 3 年 4 月 的 聯 合 歷 艦 , 還 有 2 0 2 2 年 8 月 的 環 台 軍 演 , 規 模 又 沒 有 那 麼 大 , 因 為 這 一 次 並 沒 有 進 行 那 個 進 航 區 的 劃 射 , 那 也 沒 有 進 行 實 彈 的 演 訓 。\n\n02:13.678 --> 02:17.841\n不 過 局 長 , 我 想 針 對 你 的 專 業 判 斷 也 秉 持 你 所 提 出 來 情 報 五 顏 色 這 樣 的 一 個 精 神 。 我 可 以 請 教 在 這 一 次 賴 清 德 總 統 他 的 就 職 演 說 相 對 於 前 兩 次 蔡 英 文 總 統 的 就 職 演 說\n\n02:34.754 --> 02:47.608\n2 0 1 6 跟 2 0 2 0 分 別 有 提 到 中 華 民 國 憲 法 以 及 兩 岸 人 民 關 係 條 例 在 這 一 次 賴 清 德 總 統 演 說 裡 面 並 沒 有 提 到 兩 岸 人 民 關 係 條 例 有 沒 有 激 化 或 是 讓 兩 岸 的 形 勢 更 加 緊 張 的 狀 況\n\n02:49.110 --> 02:50.331\n中 共 的 涉 台 系 統 有 在 提 到 中 華 民 國 跟 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 互 不 隸 屬 的 這 個\n\n03:17.768 --> 03:19.550\n蔡 總 統 有 釋 放 善 意 以 及 國 內 外 社 會 對 相 關 的 談 話\n\n03:41.371 --> 03:44.013\n所 以 局 長 其 實 就 你 身 為 一 個 綜 合 判 斷 的 幕 僚 的 部 分 在 賴 清 德 總 統 的 這 個 就 職 演 說 講 稿 事 先 您 理 解 嗎 ?\n\n04:08.450 --> 04:28.475\n您 的 這 個 判 斷 跟 方 向 是 事 先 理 解 之 後 您 綜 合 給 予 賴 總 統 的 一 個 判 斷 還 是 看 到 講 稿 之 後 才 去 做 的 這 樣 的 一 個 綜 合 分 析 我 們 給 決 策 者 的 一 個 相 關 的 分 析 會 聚 焦 在 整 體 的 態 勢 特 別 是 中 共 可 能 在 什 麼 情 況 之 下 會 採 取 什 麼 行 動 這 種 態 勢 的 分 析\n\n04:30.976 --> 04:51.438\n這 要 由 決 策 者 來 針 對 這 個 態 勢 分 析 來 決 斷 他 在 講 稿 當 中 要 怎 麼 樣 來 論 述 他 的 一 個 內 容 講 稿 內 容 你 沒 有 任 何 的 建 議 對 , 就 情 報 單 位 來 講 我 們 並 不 是 總 統 的 幕 僚 那 這 有 文 稿 小 組 會 針 對 相 關 的 狀 況 來 擬 稿 然 後 再 由 決 策 者 來 做 最 後 的 判 斷 好\n\n04:52.904 --> 05:11.114\n局 長 另 外 一 個 部 分 我 想 請 教 因 為 當 然 這 一 次 這 個 軍 演 的 狀 況 也 發 生 那 本 席 也 看 到 就 是 說 在 媒 體 報 導 我 們 軍 演 共 軍 軍 演 的 這 個 操 演 區 跟 國 軍 所 公 布 的 這 個 操 演 區 其 實 落 差 是 有 一 段 的 距 離\n\n05:12.054 --> 05:23.802\n那 尤 其 是 像 本 席 的 新 北 第 一 選 區 北 海 岸 超 延 區 居 然 偏 移 了 6 0 公 里 以 上 那 6 0 公 里 以 上 其 實 相 對 來 說 我 們 有 一 些 鄉 親 會 覺 得 說 怎 麼 會 有 這 樣 的 一 個 落 差\n\n05:24.929 --> 05:43.992\n能 不 能 說 明 一 下 , 為 什 麼 會 有 這 樣 的 後 製 ? 好 , 跟 委 員 說 明 一 下 , 剛 剛 事 實 上 陳 永 康 委 員 也 在 質 詢 的 時 候 有 稍 微 提 到 這 個 觀 點 , 那 他 也 提 出 他 的 觀 察 , 我 也 很 尊 重 。 也 就 是 說 中 共 這 一 次 劃 設 的 總 共 有 九 個 啦 , 有 九 個 的 演 習 區 域 , 那 他 有 標 示 那 個 區 域 的 地 點 , 那 但 是 因 為 他 並 沒 有 提 供 座 標 。\n\n05:44.853 --> 06:07.001\n那 在 沒 有 坐 標 情 況 之 下 國 防 部 也 針 對 中 共 的 演 習 的 區 域 再 去 做 套 圖 來 畫 出 我 們 認 為 他 演 習 區 域 的 可 能 的 確 實 的 地 點 所 以 造 成 因 為 沒 有 坐 標 之 下 會 有 些 落 差 但 是 跟 委 員 說 明 的 那 個 兩 個 的 圖 的 差 距 是 在 於 中 共 的 公 布 的 演 習 的 區 域 有 涵 蓋 到 我 們 的 2 4 海 里 的 海 空 域 那 我 們 的 沒 有\n\n06:07.361 --> 06:17.751\n那 跟 委 員 報 告 的 是 在 事 實 上 整 個 軍 演 操 作 過 程 當 中 共 軍 的 基 建 並 沒 有 進 入 到 所 謂 的 二 次 海 域 這 是 沒 有 的 這 是 從 演 習 的 實 際 狀 況 的 狀 況 而 情 形 沒 有 進 入 的 沒 有\n\n06:22.810 --> 06:49.670\n但 是 在 這 個 部 分 如 果 說 因 為 套 土 的 狀 況 而 造 成 這 個 落 差 會 不 會 有 導 致 擦 槍 走 火 的 可 能 性 會 增 加 對 這 個 部 分 就 必 須 要 透 過 國 安 單 位 跟 國 軍 聯 合 情 監 偵 的 系 統 來 掌 握 它 實 際 軍 事 特 別 是 基 建 他 們 活 動 的 區 域 跟 範 圍 局 長 所 以 剛 剛 也 提 到 嘛 王 洪 威 委 員 剛 剛 也 質 詢 是 說 未 來 有 可 能 這 樣 的 一 個 軍 演 有 常 態 化 的 一 個 趨 勢 這 是 您 的 判 斷\n\n06:50.430 --> 07:09.108\n那 如 果 說 每 一 次 的 這 個 狀 況 都 變 成 是 資 訊 上 的 落 差 的 話 , 我 們 能 夠 用 怎 麼 樣 的 一 個 增 進 的 空 間 ? 大 概 有 兩 個 部 分 , 一 個 部 分 當 然 要 去 了 解 中 共 劃 設 的 這 些 演 習 區 域 的 實 際 的 位 置 以 及 這 些 位 置 可 能 反 映 出 中 共 犯 台 的 預 案\n\n07:09.568 --> 07:30.707\n他 的 可 能 的 操 作 為 什 麼 會 選 在 這 個 地 區 這 是 第 一 部 分 那 第 二 部 分 當 然 是 我 們 自 己 在 做 因 應 的 時 候 也 必 須 要 能 夠 來 掌 握 實 際 上 中 共 在 畫 完 之 後 實 際 的 演 習 的 動 作 那 有 沒 有 依 照 他 的 畫 色 的 區 域 或 是 有 沒 有 更 進 一 步 來 侵 犯 到 我 們 的 海 空 域 大 概 有 這 兩 個 主 要 的 觀 察 的 重 點\n\n07:31.347 --> 07:31.908\n對 , 謝 謝 委 員 提 醒 。 謝 謝 。\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.089,"end":0.971,"text":"請國安局蔡局長"},{"start":8.513,"end":35.997,"text":"好,謝謝主席,洪委員好好,蔡局長我想很多委員都已經關心就是賴總統520就職演說之後那這個中國大陸這邊有做相關的一個因應那其中我們上禮拜有看到媒體有報導是說也有針對北京當局有做可能採取的行動做推演而最後軍演是最糟糕的劇本針對這部分有什麼樣的一個說明"},{"start":36.604,"end":39.005,"text":"因為就這個匿名的國安人員陳述他有被認為是國安局的一種非正式的表態"},{"start":64.955,"end":91.463,"text":"那但是除了軍事演習以外,國安局當時還預設了陸方有可能有哪些不同的反應?對,就中共的可能對台施壓的動作,一種狀況是他有例行的聯合戰備警巡那這種聯合戰備警巡他會擴大化,擴大版,這是一種樣態那第二種他會在有特殊的水面兵力或空中兵力的邊阻到我們的周邊海空域來進行針對性的演習"},{"start":91.903,"end":93.444,"text":"所以說算是相對來講是我們有預設但是是比較過激的一個動作"},{"start":107.791,"end":128.897,"text":"沒有,就這要看相對性,假如說你要比起日常的聯合戰備警巡,它規模是比較大一點,兵力集結狀況也比較規模大,那但是你要是再比較到2023年4月的聯合歷艦,還有2022年8月的環台軍演,規模又沒有那麼大,因為這一次並沒有進行那個進航區的劃射,那也沒有進行實彈的演訓。"},{"start":133.678,"end":137.841,"text":"不過局長,我想針對你的專業判斷也秉持你所提出來情報五顏色這樣的一個精神。我可以請教在這一次賴清德總統他的就職演說相對於前兩次蔡英文總統的就職演說"},{"start":154.754,"end":167.608,"text":"2016跟2020分別有提到中華民國憲法以及兩岸人民關係條例在這一次賴清德總統演說裡面並沒有提到兩岸人民關係條例有沒有激化或是讓兩岸的形勢更加緊張的狀況"},{"start":169.11,"end":170.331,"text":"中共的涉台系統有在提到中華民國跟中華人民共和國互不隸屬的這個"},{"start":197.768,"end":199.55,"text":"蔡總統有釋放善意以及國內外社會對相關的談話"},{"start":221.371,"end":224.013,"text":"所以局長其實就你身為一個綜合判斷的幕僚的部分在賴清德總統的這個就職演說講稿事先您理解嗎?"},{"start":248.45,"end":268.475,"text":"您的這個判斷跟方向是事先理解之後您綜合給予賴總統的一個判斷還是看到講稿之後才去做的這樣的一個綜合分析我們給決策者的一個相關的分析會聚焦在整體的態勢特別是中共可能在什麼情況之下會採取什麼行動這種態勢的分析"},{"start":270.976,"end":291.438,"text":"這要由決策者來針對這個態勢分析來決斷他在講稿當中要怎麼樣來論述他的一個內容講稿內容你沒有任何的建議對,就情報單位來講我們並不是總統的幕僚那這有文稿小組會針對相關的狀況來擬稿然後再由決策者來做最後的判斷好"},{"start":292.904,"end":311.114,"text":"局長另外一個部分我想請教因為當然這一次這個軍演的狀況也發生那本席也看到就是說在媒體報導我們軍演共軍軍演的這個操演區跟國軍所公布的這個操演區其實落差是有一段的距離"},{"start":312.054,"end":323.802,"text":"那尤其是像本席的新北第一選區北海岸超延區居然偏移了60公里以上那60公里以上其實相對來說我們有一些鄉親會覺得說怎麼會有這樣的一個落差"},{"start":324.929,"end":343.992,"text":"能不能說明一下,為什麼會有這樣的後製?好,跟委員說明一下,剛剛事實上陳永康委員也在質詢的時候有稍微提到這個觀點,那他也提出他的觀察,我也很尊重。也就是說中共這一次劃設的總共有九個啦,有九個的演習區域,那他有標示那個區域的地點,那但是因為他並沒有提供座標。"},{"start":344.853,"end":367.001,"text":"那在沒有坐標情況之下國防部也針對中共的演習的區域再去做套圖來畫出我們認為他演習區域的可能的確實的地點所以造成因為沒有坐標之下會有些落差但是跟委員說明的那個兩個的圖的差距是在於中共的公布的演習的區域有涵蓋到我們的24海里的海空域那我們的沒有"},{"start":367.361,"end":377.751,"text":"那跟委員報告的是在事實上整個軍演操作過程當中共軍的基建並沒有進入到所謂的二次海域這是沒有的這是從演習的實際狀況的狀況而情形沒有進入的沒有"},{"start":382.81,"end":409.67,"text":"但是在這個部分如果說因為套土的狀況而造成這個落差會不會有導致擦槍走火的可能性會增加對這個部分就必須要透過國安單位跟國軍聯合情監偵的系統來掌握它實際軍事特別是基建他們活動的區域跟範圍局長所以剛剛也提到嘛王洪威委員剛剛也質詢是說未來有可能這樣的一個軍演有常態化的一個趨勢這是您的判斷"},{"start":410.43,"end":429.108,"text":"那如果說每一次的這個狀況都變成是資訊上的落差的話,我們能夠用怎麼樣的一個增進的空間?大概有兩個部分,一個部分當然要去了解中共劃設的這些演習區域的實際的位置以及這些位置可能反映出中共犯台的預案"},{"start":429.568,"end":450.707,"text":"他的可能的操作為什麼會選在這個地區這是第一部分那第二部分當然是我們自己在做因應的時候也必須要能夠來掌握實際上中共在畫完之後實際的演習的動作那有沒有依照他的畫色的區域或是有沒有更進一步來侵犯到我們的海空域大概有這兩個主要的觀察的重點"},{"start":451.347,"end":451.908,"text":"對,謝謝委員提醒。謝謝。"}]}}}}