{"id":153665,"url":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/153665","video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/0d7b1f4370c473d58aaefc677cb138ff2248f66a23a11b533d3daa592b5b2cb0abb4f772ab4ab96a5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"林德福","委員發言時間":"09:11:16 - 09:24:27","影片長度":"00:13:11","會議時間":"2024-06-06T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第16次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「日圓貶值效應會否導致亞洲貨幣競貶，及對台灣經濟影響」進行專題報告，並備質詢；另邀請經濟部列席備詢。\n【6月3日及6日二天一次會】）","type":"Clip","date":"2024-06-06","start_time":"2024-06-06T09:11:16+08:00","end_time":"2024-06-06T09:24:27+08:00","duration":791,"meet":{"tmpMeeting":null,"title":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第16次全體委員會議","term":11,"type":"委員會","sessionPeriod":1,"sessionTimes":16,"committees":[20],"id":"委員會-11-1-20-16"},"features":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"gazette":{"lineno":33,"blocks":[["林委員德福：（9時11分）謝謝主席，是不是請央行楊總裁？"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：林委員早。"],["林委員德福：總裁你好。請教因為我們整個國內的房市在新青安點火下越燒越旺，央行近期邀請房仲業還有銀行業者喝咖啡，接下來央行是否會有新一波的信用管制？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，從我們實施選擇性信用管制以來，這是一個很例行性的，我們都會請銀行來聽聽他們意見，我們還會請一些專家學者或是房仲業跟中央銀行，大家來互相討論整個的，所以這一次並不是非常特殊，以前我們從選擇性信用管制之後，基本上我們每一季都會要舉行這樣的一個討論。"],["林委員德福：那你喝完咖啡以後，你們未來會不會擴大信用管制？可能會不排除來調降高總價的住宅門檻，會不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，我們基本上每一次……我老實跟委員報告，我們每一次都會來討論這些問題。"],["林委員德福：目前你有什麼方向？"],["楊總裁金龍：目前6月13號是我們理監事會，就是6月份的這一次會在6月13號開，那這一次我想會跟以前一樣的，都會針對這個議題來討論。"],["林委員德福：都會針對這個議題來討論？"],["楊總裁金龍：都會討論，所以我剛剛已經跟委員報告了，就是說我……"],["林委員德福：那你現在有沒有什麼想法？有沒有？"],["楊總裁金龍：基本上如果說我們從數據來看的話，確實就是說第一個、我們的房價居高不下，而且它的資源還是集中在……就是它的比例……銀行法第七十二條之二，還有我們所看的集中比例，這些都有一點還是居高，針對這個問題，我們每次都會討論……"],["林委員德福：都會討論，目前你有沒有什麼想法？"],["楊總裁金龍：基本上討論，我們就是必須要聽聽各位委員的意見，然後才做決定。"],["林委員德福：總裁，4月份整個天候不佳，造成蔬菜價格上升，再加上4月份電價的上漲，以及6月份夏季電價的實施，央行你怎麼看我們整個國內物價通膨率2%，是未來的一個新型態？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想我跟委員報告，上一次我們在3月份的理監事會的時候，我們升息半碼，主要就是通膨預期，因為在那個時候我們的projection、我們的預測就是今年的物價可能會2.16%，委員您也知道，主計總處最近也修了它的物價CPI的水準，現在也已經到2.03%或2.07%的樣子，但是我跟委員報告，我們的CPI、Core CPI，還有17項的民生用品，以及每個月至少購買一次的這個物價水準，都是慢慢在下來的。"],["林委員德福：慢慢在下降？"],["楊總裁金龍：都是慢慢在下來的。"],["林委員德福：我請教總裁，因為主計總處有更新整個經濟的預測，上修今年的全年經濟成長率到3.94%。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["林委員德福：陳淑姿主計長說目前整個經濟的情勢屬於緩慢的上升，力道不算強勁，還不到火熱的程度。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["林委員德福：我請問總裁，從現在到年底前的整個景氣狀況，你的看法是不是和主計總處一致呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們上一次的經濟成長率好像是3.22%，不過第一季主計總處有修改了，這個有revise up，就是修正、提高了第一季的經濟成長率。如果我們根據第一次的經濟成長，包括我們二、三、四的經濟成長率，整個來重新計算的話，我們大概會調升到3.5%，但是這個不是我們最後的……"],["林委員德福：站在中央銀行的立場，你們跟主計總處是不是有相同的觀點？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想基本上大致是一樣的，我們也看到我們的經濟是有在復甦，但是不是非常地強勁。"],["林委員德福：如果景氣的反彈力道持續地軟弱無力，請問你認為目前有沒有景氣再度翻轉往下的這種疑慮存在？會不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想都會有不確定性的因素啦，不過這些不確定的因素，到目前來看的話，影響這個走勢（trend）的部分好像看不出來，所以基本上我們還是認為有這樣子往上復甦的一個現象。"],["林委員德福：總裁，上個禮拜央行發布第18期金融穩定報告，本席也瞭解央行示警的四大風險，雖然央行強調會密切來關注後續的發展並適時地採取因應的措施，以促進整個金融的穩定，但本席還是想要請教總裁，央行關注的四大風險，在今年第一次的理監事會就已經提出，經過這兩個多月後，請問央行關注的四大風險，後續發展到底有沒有什麼變化？"],["楊總裁金龍：還是這四大風險。"],["林委員德福：還是一樣維持嘛？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，還是這四大風險。"],["林委員德福：如果有變化的話，這種狀況是往好的方面，還是往壞的方面呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：我在想其中有一項，我們所關注的就是主要經濟體降息的預期，這個部分可能是往好的，當然降息對市場來講是往好的方向，但是它之所以會降息，是因為慢慢地它的景氣就越來越不好，它才會降息，包括委員今天也知道，加拿大央行昨天就降息了，6月份的時候可能歐元區也會降息。"],["林委員德福：這樣子喔。"],["楊總裁金龍：美國最近就是因為它的經濟也有slow down的現象，所以現在市場都認為它在9月份的時候有可能會降息。"],["林委員德福：總裁，要是都沒有變化，哪一項的風險成就或發生，你認為對臺灣的衝擊會最大？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想目前都還是在掌控當中。"],["林委員德福：在掌控當中？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，還是在掌控當中。"],["林委員德福：總裁，因為景氣反彈力道不大，央行又示警四大風險，未來整個景氣仍是堪慮，或許政府官員會以預測機構的說法、股市和房市現階段的整個狀況，來說服外界降低對整個景氣不明、會反轉的一個疑慮，但是畢竟實際體會、感受生活環境越來越不友善的是一般的老百姓。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["林委員德福：對於貧富差距變大的情形，前主計長朱澤民曾說分配不均是政府的責任比較大，因此政府要採用各種財政以及社會福利的支出來改善所得的分配。我請問總裁，你認為透過財政、社會福利政策的改善分配，能夠有效緩和整個貧富差距變大的情形嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想是不是非常有效，這個必須要再探討，但是在所有的政策裡面，可能比較會被各個國家所採用的，大概就是這兩樣。"],["林委員德福：總裁，因為依現況來看，貧富差距似乎已經不可逆。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["林委員德福：如果景氣沒有辦法出現像數十年前臺灣整個經濟起飛的時期，創造出共存共榮的這種經濟奇蹟，請問總裁，你認為長期依賴政府政策補貼過日子的多數民眾，能夠真實感受到景氣好轉嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，基本上我剛剛也已經跟委員報告了，我們今年應該是在復甦當中，基本上我們的失業率現在來看也好像是歷史新低的樣子。"],["林委員德福：總裁，這樣會不會反而容易讓景氣復甦流於掩耳盜鈴的這種政策語言？會不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：應該是不會啦。"],["林委員德福：不會喔？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["林委員德福：總裁，因為國內整個股匯市的走勢呈現脫鉤，相較於整個臺股頻創新高，近期雖然有回檔的壓力，但是新臺幣匯率似乎還是呈現貶值的趨勢。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["林委員德福：請問總裁，以目前整個市場供需的氛圍，新臺幣匯率有沒有可能會繼續貶值，失守到32.5元的關卡？會不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，第一個，匯率是供需決定的沒有錯，至於它會不會失守到32.5元，這個我不敢說啦。"],["林委員德福：你不敢預測？"],["楊總裁金龍：這個很難預測，而且我們匯率的走勢就誠如我在報告裡面所講的，匯率有相對性，所謂的相對性就是整個美元獨強，你看看美元獨強，所有的貨幣都在貶值的時候，新臺幣大概也沒辦法置身事外。"],["林委員德福：那個……"],["楊總裁金龍：如果大家都在貶，只有新臺幣在升值，這個好像也不是很正常。"],["林委員德福：總裁，因為3月底你對於新臺幣貶值不停表示，主要原因是美元超強，請問經過兩個月，美元超強是不是還是新臺幣貶值的主要原因？是嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：它還是。"],["林委員德福：還是？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，還是。"],["林委員德福：就你瞭解的美元超強型態，短期內到底有沒有可能發生變化？會不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：所以市場現在一般都會認為，當美國調降利息的時候，它的經濟走弱，然後美元就會開始慢慢地下降。"],["林委員德福：好，最後一點，總裁，因為目前整個美國通膨仍高，原本對聯準會短期內降息的期待恐怕落空的機率很大，再加上今年美國大選，外界預估11月大選前利率都不可能變動。總裁，如果年底前美元持續強勢，新臺幣持續地弱勢，請問你認為對國內整個金融市場、股匯市乃至於國內的整個經濟環境，我們應該要如何去因應？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，剛剛委員在講的是，現在外界都認為11月大選之前都不會降息。"],["林委員德福：對。"],["楊總裁金龍：不過最近的變化好像市場已經在反應，就是在討論說可能9月會降息。"],["林委員德福：會降息？"],["楊總裁金龍：現在反而是變成這樣，所以市場是沒辦法預測的，因為它的變化太大了、太快了。"],["林委員德福：還要再觀察就對了？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，要再觀察。"],["林委員德福：好，謝謝。"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝。"],["主席：下一位請吳秉叡委員。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":274,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-20-16","speakers":["羅明才","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","賴惠員","顏寬恒","李彥秀","王鴻薇","李坤城","黃珊珊","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","王世堅","羅明才","林楚茵","廖先翔","謝衣鳯","葉元之","陳玉珍"],"page_start":229,"meetingDate":["2024-06-06"],"gazette_id":"1135801","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1135801_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第16次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「日圓貶值效應會否導致亞洲貨幣競貶，及對台灣經濟影響」進行\n專題報告，並備質詢；另邀請經濟部列席備詢","agenda_id":"1135801_00003"}},"transcript":{"id":"153665","pyannote":{"name":"ronny","tool":"pyannote","data":{"url":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/153665","tool":"pyannote","id":"153665-pyannote"},"job_id":"TdvWwDdqCwUqLFGK","queued_at":"2024-06-06 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705.265, \"end\": 705.565, \"text\": \"目前整個美國通膨能高\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"目\", \"start\": 705.265, \"end\": 705.325, \"score\": 0.463}, {\"word\": \"前\", \"start\": 705.325, \"end\": 705.345, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"整\", \"start\": 705.345, \"end\": 705.445, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"美\", \"start\": 705.445, \"end\": 705.465, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"通\", \"start\": 705.465, \"end\": 705.525, \"score\": 0.56}, {\"word\": \"膨\"}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 705.525, \"end\": 705.545, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"高\", \"start\": 705.545, \"end\": 705.565, \"score\": 0.0}]}, {\"start\": 723.763, \"end\": 743.132, \"text\": \"原本對年準會短期內降息的期待恐怕會落空的機率很大再加上今年美國大選那外界預估11月大選前利率都不可能變動總裁如果年底前美元持續強勢新台幣持續的弱勢請問你認為對國內整個金融市場股會市乃至於說國內的整個經濟環境\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"原\", \"start\": 723.763, \"end\": 723.943, \"score\": 0.893}, {\"word\": \"本\", \"start\": 723.943, \"end\": 724.684, \"score\": 0.915}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"年\", 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00:01:02,403\n我跟委員報告就是說我們從我們實施選擇性信任管制以來我們都會這個是一個很例行性的我們會請銀行來聽聽他們的意見我們會請一些的專家學者或是黃仲偉來跟中央銀行大家來互相討論整個的所以這一次並不是非常特殊\n\n4\n00:01:03,564 --> 00:01:04,225\n那你喝完咖啡以後\n\n5\n00:01:15,970 --> 00:01:34,575\n你們未來會不會擴大來信用管制可能會不排除來調降高總價的租宅門檻會不會我跟委員報告就是說我們基本上每一次我老實跟委員報告我們每一次都會來討論這些的問題\n\n6\n00:01:36,435 --> 00:01:50,870\n所以目前我就說6月13日是我們禮監事會就6月份的這一次會在6月13日開那這一次開我想會跟以前一樣的都會針對這個議題來討論\n\n7\n00:01:54,554 --> 00:01:58,055\n都會針對這個議題來討論所以我就已經跟委員報告了那你現在有沒有什麼想法基本上如果說我們從這個數據來看的話確實就是說第一個我們的房價居高不下而且它的資源還是集中在那個就是說它的那個比例\n\n8\n00:02:18,399 --> 00:02:19,059\n總裁4月份整個天候\n\n9\n00:02:47,964 --> 00:03:04,414\n不加造成蔬菜價格上升再加上4月份電價的上漲以及6月份夏季電價的實施那央行你怎麼看我們整個國內物價通貨能力2%是未來的一個新形態呢?\n\n10\n00:03:07,352 --> 00:03:21,957\n我想就是說委員我跟委員報告就是說上一次呢我們在3月份的禮監事會的時候我們的升息辦嘛主要就是說通膨預期因為在那個時候啊我們就是說我們的預測就是說今年的物價可能會2.16就是說2.16那\n\n11\n00:03:31,001 --> 00:03:46,399\n委員您也知道主計總署最近他也修了他的一個物價CPI的一個水準現在也已經到2.03或2.07的樣子所以也就是說但是我跟委員報告\n\n12\n00:03:47,620 --> 00:04:12,689\n我們的CPI還有扣CPI那還有就是17項的這個民生用品那還有就是說每個月至少購買一次的這個物價水準齁都是慢慢在下來的都是慢慢在下來的我請教齁總裁因為主計總署有更新整個經濟的預測上修今年的全年經濟成長率到3.94%\n\n13\n00:04:16,690 --> 00:04:37,566\n那這個陳淑芝主席長說目前整個經濟的情勢屬於緩慢的上升力道不算強勁還不到火熱的這種程度那我請問總裁從現在到年底前的整個景氣狀況你的看法是不是和主席總書一致呢我想我們\n\n14\n00:04:39,668 --> 00:04:42,029\n我們上一次呢我們的經濟成長率呢我們是3.22好像是3.22不過呢他在第一季呢主委總署他有修改了這個有提高了這個第一季的經濟成長率\n\n15\n00:04:56,713 --> 00:05:00,836\n那如果說我們根據第一次的經濟成長包括我們234的經濟成長率整個來來重新計算的話呢我們大概會調升到3.5但是呢這個不是我們最後的這個的那個\n\n16\n00:05:14,864 --> 00:05:28,004\n現在中央銀行的立場你們跟組織總署是不是有相同的概念?我想基本上會大致是一樣的我們也看到就是說我們的經濟是在復甦但是不是非常的強勁\n\n17\n00:05:29,827 --> 00:05:52,872\n就是如果景氣要是反彈力道持續的軟弱無力那請問你認為目前有沒有景氣再度翻轉往下的這種存在的餘力啊?我想就是說都會有不確定性的因素不過這些不確定的因素到目前來看的話好像在影響這個Train這個走勢的好像看不出來\n\n18\n00:05:57,233 --> 00:06:12,588\n所以基本上呢我們還是認為就是說是有這樣的往上往上復甦的一個現象總裁上個禮拜央行發布第18期金融穩定報告本席也瞭解央行事情的四大風險雖然央行強調會密切來關注後續的發展並適時的\n\n19\n00:06:17,632 --> 00:06:37,141\n採取因應的措施以促進整個金融的穩定那北溪還是想要請教總裁央行關注的四大風險今年第一次禮監事會就已經提出那請問經過這兩個多月後請問央行關注的後續發展四大風險到底有沒有什麼變化\n\n20\n00:06:39,082 --> 00:07:06,244\n還是適當的風險還是一樣維持如果有變化的話這種狀況是往好的方面還是往壞的方面呢我在想齁就是說其中有一項我們所關注的就是說各個主要經濟體他的那個降息的預期降息的預期這個部分可能就是說可能是往好的\n\n21\n00:07:08,446 --> 00:07:29,805\n當然就是說降息是對市場來講是往好的但是他之所以會降息是因為就是說是慢慢的他的景氣就越來越不好他才會降息包括委員今天也知道加拿大央行今天就他昨天就降息了那6月份的時候可能歐元區他也會降息\n\n22\n00:07:30,425 --> 00:07:33,948\n總裁,如果都沒有變化,那哪一項的風險成就或發生,你認為對台灣的衝擊會最大呢?\n\n23\n00:07:53,265 --> 00:08:15,498\n我在想目前都還是在掌控當中還是在掌控當中總裁因為景氣反彈力道不大那央行又勢警勢到風險未來整個景氣能是堪慮或許政府官員會議預測機構的說法股市和房市現階段的整個狀況來說服整個外界\n\n24\n00:08:18,620 --> 00:08:37,737\n對整個情緒不明會緩轉的一個疑慮但是畢竟實際這個體會感受生活環境會是越來越不友善的是一般的老百姓那對於這個屏幕這個差距變大前主席長朱哲銘曾說分配\n\n25\n00:08:38,598 --> 00:08:42,899\n總裁,你認為透過財政社會福利政策的改善分配能夠有效緩和整個貧富差距的變大嗎?\n\n26\n00:08:59,485 --> 00:09:02,207\n因為那個總裁依現況來看貧富差距似乎已經不可逆了\n\n27\n00:09:21,859 --> 00:09:42,915\n那如果景氣沒有辦法出現像數十年前台灣整個經濟起飛的時期創造出共存共榮的這種經濟奇蹟那請問總裁你認為長期依賴政府政策補貼過日子的多數民眾能夠真實感受到景氣好轉嗎?\n\n28\n00:09:44,596 --> 00:10:02,602\n不過我跟委員報告,基本上我剛剛也是跟委員報告,就是說我們今年應該是在復甦的當中,是復甦的當中,所以基本上我們的就業率現在來看,我們的就業率也是好像是歷史的新低的樣子。會不會\n\n29\n00:10:05,263 --> 00:10:27,417\n總裁,會不會反而容易讓景氣互輸流於延耳盜鈴的這種政策的語言?會不會?應該是不會啦。不會喔?是啦。那個總裁,因為國內的整個股匯市的走勢呈現脫鉤相較於整個台股平創新高近期雖然有回檔的壓力但是新台幣匯率\n\n30\n00:10:28,537 --> 00:10:41,106\n似乎還是呈現貶值的這種趨勢那請問總裁以目前整個市場供需的氛圍新台幣匯率有沒有可能會繼續貶值失守到32.5元的關卡\n\n31\n00:10:43,468 --> 00:11:03,120\n會不會?匯率,第一個我跟委員報告匯率他是供需決定的,沒有錯啦那我就說他會不會失守32.5這個我不敢說啦這個很難預測而且呢我們的匯率匯率的走勢就成為我在報告裡面所講的匯率是一個相對性啦\n\n32\n00:11:04,261 --> 00:11:22,077\n相對性所謂相對性就是說到整個美元獨強你看看美元獨強所有的貨幣都在貶值的時候新台幣大概也沒辦法就是說置身事外那你如果說大家都在貶只有新台幣在升值好像這個也不是很\n\n33\n00:11:24,118 --> 00:11:44,425\n總裁,3月底總裁對於新台幣貶不停表示說主要原因是美元超強。那請問經過兩個月美元超強是不是還是新台幣貶值的主要原因?還是嗎?還是。就你了解美元超強的形態,短期內到底有沒有可能發生變化?\n\n34\n00:11:45,265 --> 00:11:45,565\n目前整個美國通膨能高\n\n35\n00:12:03,763 --> 00:12:23,132\n原本對年準會短期內降息的期待恐怕會落空的機率很大再加上今年美國大選那外界預估11月大選前利率都不可能變動總裁如果年底前美元持續強勢新台幣持續的弱勢請問你認為對國內整個金融市場股會市乃至於說國內的整個經濟環境\n\n36\n00:12:30,456 --> 00:12:31,677\n我們應該要如何去因應呢?\n\n37\n00:13:05,508 --> 00:13:06,270\n謝謝,下一位請吳秉瑞吳衛文\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n1090\t5677\t謝謝主席是不是請央行楊總裁請楊總裁李委員早總裁你好我請教因為\n15512\t31961\t我們整個國內的房市在新清安點火下越燒越旺那央行近期邀請房仲業還有銀行業者喝咖啡那接下來央行伺服會有新一波的信用管制\n34627\t62403\t我跟委員報告就是說我們從我們實施選擇性信任管制以來我們都會這個是一個很例行性的我們會請銀行來聽聽他們的意見我們會請一些的專家學者或是黃仲偉來跟中央銀行大家來互相討論整個的所以這一次並不是非常特殊\n63564\t64225\t那你喝完咖啡以後\n75970\t94575\t你們未來會不會擴大來信用管制可能會不排除來調降高總價的租宅門檻會不會我跟委員報告就是說我們基本上每一次我老實跟委員報告我們每一次都會來討論這些的問題\n96435\t110870\t所以目前我就說6月13日是我們禮監事會就6月份的這一次會在6月13日開那這一次開我想會跟以前一樣的都會針對這個議題來討論\n114554\t118055\t都會針對這個議題來討論所以我就已經跟委員報告了那你現在有沒有什麼想法基本上如果說我們從這個數據來看的話確實就是說第一個我們的房價居高不下而且它的資源還是集中在那個就是說它的那個比例\n138399\t139059\t總裁4月份整個天候\n167964\t184414\t不加造成蔬菜價格上升再加上4月份電價的上漲以及6月份夏季電價的實施那央行你怎麼看我們整個國內物價通貨能力2%是未來的一個新形態呢?\n187352\t201957\t我想就是說委員我跟委員報告就是說上一次呢我們在3月份的禮監事會的時候我們的升息辦嘛主要就是說通膨預期因為在那個時候啊我們就是說我們的預測就是說今年的物價可能會2.16就是說2.16那\n211001\t226399\t委員您也知道主計總署最近他也修了他的一個物價CPI的一個水準現在也已經到2.03或2.07的樣子所以也就是說但是我跟委員報告\n227620\t252689\t我們的CPI還有扣CPI那還有就是17項的這個民生用品那還有就是說每個月至少購買一次的這個物價水準齁都是慢慢在下來的都是慢慢在下來的我請教齁總裁因為主計總署有更新整個經濟的預測上修今年的全年經濟成長率到3.94%\n256690\t277566\t那這個陳淑芝主席長說目前整個經濟的情勢屬於緩慢的上升力道不算強勁還不到火熱的這種程度那我請問總裁從現在到年底前的整個景氣狀況你的看法是不是和主席總書一致呢我想我們\n279668\t282029\t我們上一次呢我們的經濟成長率呢我們是3.22好像是3.22不過呢他在第一季呢主委總署他有修改了這個有提高了這個第一季的經濟成長率\n296713\t300836\t那如果說我們根據第一次的經濟成長包括我們234的經濟成長率整個來來重新計算的話呢我們大概會調升到3.5但是呢這個不是我們最後的這個的那個\n314864\t328004\t現在中央銀行的立場你們跟組織總署是不是有相同的概念?我想基本上會大致是一樣的我們也看到就是說我們的經濟是在復甦但是不是非常的強勁\n329827\t352872\t就是如果景氣要是反彈力道持續的軟弱無力那請問你認為目前有沒有景氣再度翻轉往下的這種存在的餘力啊?我想就是說都會有不確定性的因素不過這些不確定的因素到目前來看的話好像在影響這個Train這個走勢的好像看不出來\n357233\t372588\t所以基本上呢我們還是認為就是說是有這樣的往上往上復甦的一個現象總裁上個禮拜央行發布第18期金融穩定報告本席也瞭解央行事情的四大風險雖然央行強調會密切來關注後續的發展並適時的\n377632\t397141\t採取因應的措施以促進整個金融的穩定那北溪還是想要請教總裁央行關注的四大風險今年第一次禮監事會就已經提出那請問經過這兩個多月後請問央行關注的後續發展四大風險到底有沒有什麼變化\n399082\t426244\t還是適當的風險還是一樣維持如果有變化的話這種狀況是往好的方面還是往壞的方面呢我在想齁就是說其中有一項我們所關注的就是說各個主要經濟體他的那個降息的預期降息的預期這個部分可能就是說可能是往好的\n428446\t449805\t當然就是說降息是對市場來講是往好的但是他之所以會降息是因為就是說是慢慢的他的景氣就越來越不好他才會降息包括委員今天也知道加拿大央行今天就他昨天就降息了那6月份的時候可能歐元區他也會降息\n450425\t453948\t總裁,如果都沒有變化,那哪一項的風險成就或發生,你認為對台灣的衝擊會最大呢?\n473265\t495498\t我在想目前都還是在掌控當中還是在掌控當中總裁因為景氣反彈力道不大那央行又勢警勢到風險未來整個景氣能是堪慮或許政府官員會議預測機構的說法股市和房市現階段的整個狀況來說服整個外界\n498620\t517737\t對整個情緒不明會緩轉的一個疑慮但是畢竟實際這個體會感受生活環境會是越來越不友善的是一般的老百姓那對於這個屏幕這個差距變大前主席長朱哲銘曾說分配\n518598\t522899\t總裁,你認為透過財政社會福利政策的改善分配能夠有效緩和整個貧富差距的變大嗎?\n539485\t542207\t因為那個總裁依現況來看貧富差距似乎已經不可逆了\n561859\t582915\t那如果景氣沒有辦法出現像數十年前台灣整個經濟起飛的時期創造出共存共榮的這種經濟奇蹟那請問總裁你認為長期依賴政府政策補貼過日子的多數民眾能夠真實感受到景氣好轉嗎?\n584596\t602602\t不過我跟委員報告,基本上我剛剛也是跟委員報告,就是說我們今年應該是在復甦的當中,是復甦的當中,所以基本上我們的就業率現在來看,我們的就業率也是好像是歷史的新低的樣子。會不會\n605263\t627417\t總裁,會不會反而容易讓景氣互輸流於延耳盜鈴的這種政策的語言?會不會?應該是不會啦。不會喔?是啦。那個總裁,因為國內的整個股匯市的走勢呈現脫鉤相較於整個台股平創新高近期雖然有回檔的壓力但是新台幣匯率\n628537\t641106\t似乎還是呈現貶值的這種趨勢那請問總裁以目前整個市場供需的氛圍新台幣匯率有沒有可能會繼續貶值失守到32.5元的關卡\n643468\t663120\t會不會?匯率,第一個我跟委員報告匯率他是供需決定的,沒有錯啦那我就說他會不會失守32.5這個我不敢說啦這個很難預測而且呢我們的匯率匯率的走勢就成為我在報告裡面所講的匯率是一個相對性啦\n664261\t682077\t相對性所謂相對性就是說到整個美元獨強你看看美元獨強所有的貨幣都在貶值的時候新台幣大概也沒辦法就是說置身事外那你如果說大家都在貶只有新台幣在升值好像這個也不是很\n684118\t704425\t總裁,3月底總裁對於新台幣貶不停表示說主要原因是美元超強。那請問經過兩個月美元超強是不是還是新台幣貶值的主要原因?還是嗎?還是。就你了解美元超強的形態,短期內到底有沒有可能發生變化?\n705265\t705565\t目前整個美國通膨能高\n723763\t743132\t原本對年準會短期內降息的期待恐怕會落空的機率很大再加上今年美國大選那外界預估11月大選前利率都不可能變動總裁如果年底前美元持續強勢新台幣持續的弱勢請問你認為對國內整個金融市場股會市乃至於說國內的整個經濟環境\n750456\t751677\t我們應該要如何去因應呢?\n785508\t786270\t謝謝,下一位請吳秉瑞 吳衛文\n","txt":"謝謝主席是不是請央行楊總裁請楊總裁李委員早總裁你好我請教因為\n我們整個國內的房市在新清安點火下越燒越旺那央行近期邀請房仲業還有銀行業者喝咖啡那接下來央行伺服會有新一波的信用管制\n我跟委員報告就是說我們從我們實施選擇性信任管制以來我們都會這個是一個很例行性的我們會請銀行來聽聽他們的意見我們會請一些的專家學者或是黃仲偉來跟中央銀行大家來互相討論整個的所以這一次並不是非常特殊\n那你喝完咖啡以後\n你們未來會不會擴大來信用管制可能會不排除來調降高總價的租宅門檻會不會我跟委員報告就是說我們基本上每一次我老實跟委員報告我們每一次都會來討論這些的問題\n所以目前我就說6月13日是我們禮監事會就6月份的這一次會在6月13日開那這一次開我想會跟以前一樣的都會針對這個議題來討論\n都會針對這個議題來討論所以我就已經跟委員報告了那你現在有沒有什麼想法基本上如果說我們從這個數據來看的話確實就是說第一個我們的房價居高不下而且它的資源還是集中在那個就是說它的那個比例\n總裁4月份整個天候\n不加造成蔬菜價格上升再加上4月份電價的上漲以及6月份夏季電價的實施那央行你怎麼看我們整個國內物價通貨能力2%是未來的一個新形態呢?\n我想就是說委員我跟委員報告就是說上一次呢我們在3月份的禮監事會的時候我們的升息辦嘛主要就是說通膨預期因為在那個時候啊我們就是說我們的預測就是說今年的物價可能會2.16就是說2.16那\n委員您也知道主計總署最近他也修了他的一個物價CPI的一個水準現在也已經到2.03或2.07的樣子所以也就是說但是我跟委員報告\n我們的CPI還有扣CPI那還有就是17項的這個民生用品那還有就是說每個月至少購買一次的這個物價水準齁都是慢慢在下來的都是慢慢在下來的我請教齁總裁因為主計總署有更新整個經濟的預測上修今年的全年經濟成長率到3.94%\n那這個陳淑芝主席長說目前整個經濟的情勢屬於緩慢的上升力道不算強勁還不到火熱的這種程度那我請問總裁從現在到年底前的整個景氣狀況你的看法是不是和主席總書一致呢我想我們\n我們上一次呢我們的經濟成長率呢我們是3.22好像是3.22不過呢他在第一季呢主委總署他有修改了這個有提高了這個第一季的經濟成長率\n那如果說我們根據第一次的經濟成長包括我們234的經濟成長率整個來來重新計算的話呢我們大概會調升到3.5但是呢這個不是我們最後的這個的那個\n現在中央銀行的立場你們跟組織總署是不是有相同的概念?我想基本上會大致是一樣的我們也看到就是說我們的經濟是在復甦但是不是非常的強勁\n就是如果景氣要是反彈力道持續的軟弱無力那請問你認為目前有沒有景氣再度翻轉往下的這種存在的餘力啊?我想就是說都會有不確定性的因素不過這些不確定的因素到目前來看的話好像在影響這個Train這個走勢的好像看不出來\n所以基本上呢我們還是認為就是說是有這樣的往上往上復甦的一個現象總裁上個禮拜央行發布第18期金融穩定報告本席也瞭解央行事情的四大風險雖然央行強調會密切來關注後續的發展並適時的\n採取因應的措施以促進整個金融的穩定那北溪還是想要請教總裁央行關注的四大風險今年第一次禮監事會就已經提出那請問經過這兩個多月後請問央行關注的後續發展四大風險到底有沒有什麼變化\n還是適當的風險還是一樣維持如果有變化的話這種狀況是往好的方面還是往壞的方面呢我在想齁就是說其中有一項我們所關注的就是說各個主要經濟體他的那個降息的預期降息的預期這個部分可能就是說可能是往好的\n當然就是說降息是對市場來講是往好的但是他之所以會降息是因為就是說是慢慢的他的景氣就越來越不好他才會降息包括委員今天也知道加拿大央行今天就他昨天就降息了那6月份的時候可能歐元區他也會降息\n總裁,如果都沒有變化,那哪一項的風險成就或發生,你認為對台灣的衝擊會最大呢?\n我在想目前都還是在掌控當中還是在掌控當中總裁因為景氣反彈力道不大那央行又勢警勢到風險未來整個景氣能是堪慮或許政府官員會議預測機構的說法股市和房市現階段的整個狀況來說服整個外界\n對整個情緒不明會緩轉的一個疑慮但是畢竟實際這個體會感受生活環境會是越來越不友善的是一般的老百姓那對於這個屏幕這個差距變大前主席長朱哲銘曾說分配\n總裁,你認為透過財政社會福利政策的改善分配能夠有效緩和整個貧富差距的變大嗎?\n因為那個總裁依現況來看貧富差距似乎已經不可逆了\n那如果景氣沒有辦法出現像數十年前台灣整個經濟起飛的時期創造出共存共榮的這種經濟奇蹟那請問總裁你認為長期依賴政府政策補貼過日子的多數民眾能夠真實感受到景氣好轉嗎?\n不過我跟委員報告,基本上我剛剛也是跟委員報告,就是說我們今年應該是在復甦的當中,是復甦的當中,所以基本上我們的就業率現在來看,我們的就業率也是好像是歷史的新低的樣子。會不會\n總裁,會不會反而容易讓景氣互輸流於延耳盜鈴的這種政策的語言?會不會?應該是不會啦。不會喔?是啦。那個總裁,因為國內的整個股匯市的走勢呈現脫鉤相較於整個台股平創新高近期雖然有回檔的壓力但是新台幣匯率\n似乎還是呈現貶值的這種趨勢那請問總裁以目前整個市場供需的氛圍新台幣匯率有沒有可能會繼續貶值失守到32.5元的關卡\n會不會?匯率,第一個我跟委員報告匯率他是供需決定的,沒有錯啦那我就說他會不會失守32.5這個我不敢說啦這個很難預測而且呢我們的匯率匯率的走勢就成為我在報告裡面所講的匯率是一個相對性啦\n相對性所謂相對性就是說到整個美元獨強你看看美元獨強所有的貨幣都在貶值的時候新台幣大概也沒辦法就是說置身事外那你如果說大家都在貶只有新台幣在升值好像這個也不是很\n總裁,3月底總裁對於新台幣貶不停表示說主要原因是美元超強。那請問經過兩個月美元超強是不是還是新台幣貶值的主要原因?還是嗎?還是。就你了解美元超強的形態,短期內到底有沒有可能發生變化?\n目前整個美國通膨能高\n原本對年準會短期內降息的期待恐怕會落空的機率很大再加上今年美國大選那外界預估11月大選前利率都不可能變動總裁如果年底前美元持續強勢新台幣持續的弱勢請問你認為對國內整個金融市場股會市乃至於說國內的整個經濟環境\n我們應該要如何去因應呢?\n謝謝,下一位請吳秉瑞 吳衛文\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:01.090 --> 00:05.677\n謝謝主席是不是請央行楊總裁請楊總裁李委員早總裁你好我請教因為\n\n00:15.512 --> 00:31.961\n我們整個國內的房市在新清安點火下越燒越旺那央行近期邀請房仲業還有銀行業者喝咖啡那接下來央行伺服會有新一波的信用管制\n\n00:34.627 --> 01:02.403\n我跟委員報告就是說我們從我們實施選擇性信任管制以來我們都會這個是一個很例行性的我們會請銀行來聽聽他們的意見我們會請一些的專家學者或是黃仲偉來跟中央銀行大家來互相討論整個的所以這一次並不是非常特殊\n\n01:03.564 --> 01:04.225\n那你喝完咖啡以後\n\n01:15.970 --> 01:34.575\n你們未來會不會擴大來信用管制可能會不排除來調降高總價的租宅門檻會不會我跟委員報告就是說我們基本上每一次我老實跟委員報告我們每一次都會來討論這些的問題\n\n01:36.435 --> 01:50.870\n所以目前我就說6月13日是我們禮監事會就6月份的這一次會在6月13日開那這一次開我想會跟以前一樣的都會針對這個議題來討論\n\n01:54.554 --> 01:58.055\n都會針對這個議題來討論所以我就已經跟委員報告了那你現在有沒有什麼想法基本上如果說我們從這個數據來看的話確實就是說第一個我們的房價居高不下而且它的資源還是集中在那個就是說它的那個比例\n\n02:18.399 --> 02:19.059\n總裁4月份整個天候\n\n02:47.964 --> 03:04.414\n不加造成蔬菜價格上升再加上4月份電價的上漲以及6月份夏季電價的實施那央行你怎麼看我們整個國內物價通貨能力2%是未來的一個新形態呢?\n\n03:07.352 --> 03:21.957\n我想就是說委員我跟委員報告就是說上一次呢我們在3月份的禮監事會的時候我們的升息辦嘛主要就是說通膨預期因為在那個時候啊我們就是說我們的預測就是說今年的物價可能會2.16就是說2.16那\n\n03:31.001 --> 03:46.399\n委員您也知道主計總署最近他也修了他的一個物價CPI的一個水準現在也已經到2.03或2.07的樣子所以也就是說但是我跟委員報告\n\n03:47.620 --> 04:12.689\n我們的CPI還有扣CPI那還有就是17項的這個民生用品那還有就是說每個月至少購買一次的這個物價水準齁都是慢慢在下來的都是慢慢在下來的我請教齁總裁因為主計總署有更新整個經濟的預測上修今年的全年經濟成長率到3.94%\n\n04:16.690 --> 04:37.566\n那這個陳淑芝主席長說目前整個經濟的情勢屬於緩慢的上升力道不算強勁還不到火熱的這種程度那我請問總裁從現在到年底前的整個景氣狀況你的看法是不是和主席總書一致呢我想我們\n\n04:39.668 --> 04:42.029\n我們上一次呢我們的經濟成長率呢我們是3.22好像是3.22不過呢他在第一季呢主委總署他有修改了這個有提高了這個第一季的經濟成長率\n\n04:56.713 --> 05:00.836\n那如果說我們根據第一次的經濟成長包括我們234的經濟成長率整個來來重新計算的話呢我們大概會調升到3.5但是呢這個不是我們最後的這個的那個\n\n05:14.864 --> 05:28.004\n現在中央銀行的立場你們跟組織總署是不是有相同的概念?我想基本上會大致是一樣的我們也看到就是說我們的經濟是在復甦但是不是非常的強勁\n\n05:29.827 --> 05:52.872\n就是如果景氣要是反彈力道持續的軟弱無力那請問你認為目前有沒有景氣再度翻轉往下的這種存在的餘力啊?我想就是說都會有不確定性的因素不過這些不確定的因素到目前來看的話好像在影響這個Train這個走勢的好像看不出來\n\n05:57.233 --> 06:12.588\n所以基本上呢我們還是認為就是說是有這樣的往上往上復甦的一個現象總裁上個禮拜央行發布第18期金融穩定報告本席也瞭解央行事情的四大風險雖然央行強調會密切來關注後續的發展並適時的\n\n06:17.632 --> 06:37.141\n採取因應的措施以促進整個金融的穩定那北溪還是想要請教總裁央行關注的四大風險今年第一次禮監事會就已經提出那請問經過這兩個多月後請問央行關注的後續發展四大風險到底有沒有什麼變化\n\n06:39.082 --> 07:06.244\n還是適當的風險還是一樣維持如果有變化的話這種狀況是往好的方面還是往壞的方面呢我在想齁就是說其中有一項我們所關注的就是說各個主要經濟體他的那個降息的預期降息的預期這個部分可能就是說可能是往好的\n\n07:08.446 --> 07:29.805\n當然就是說降息是對市場來講是往好的但是他之所以會降息是因為就是說是慢慢的他的景氣就越來越不好他才會降息包括委員今天也知道加拿大央行今天就他昨天就降息了那6月份的時候可能歐元區他也會降息\n\n07:30.425 --> 07:33.948\n總裁,如果都沒有變化,那哪一項的風險成就或發生,你認為對台灣的衝擊會最大呢?\n\n07:53.265 --> 08:15.498\n我在想目前都還是在掌控當中還是在掌控當中總裁因為景氣反彈力道不大那央行又勢警勢到風險未來整個景氣能是堪慮或許政府官員會議預測機構的說法股市和房市現階段的整個狀況來說服整個外界\n\n08:18.620 --> 08:37.737\n對整個情緒不明會緩轉的一個疑慮但是畢竟實際這個體會感受生活環境會是越來越不友善的是一般的老百姓那對於這個屏幕這個差距變大前主席長朱哲銘曾說分配\n\n08:38.598 --> 08:42.899\n總裁,你認為透過財政社會福利政策的改善分配能夠有效緩和整個貧富差距的變大嗎?\n\n08:59.485 --> 09:02.207\n因為那個總裁依現況來看貧富差距似乎已經不可逆了\n\n09:21.859 --> 09:42.915\n那如果景氣沒有辦法出現像數十年前台灣整個經濟起飛的時期創造出共存共榮的這種經濟奇蹟那請問總裁你認為長期依賴政府政策補貼過日子的多數民眾能夠真實感受到景氣好轉嗎?\n\n09:44.596 --> 10:02.602\n不過我跟委員報告,基本上我剛剛也是跟委員報告,就是說我們今年應該是在復甦的當中,是復甦的當中,所以基本上我們的就業率現在來看,我們的就業率也是好像是歷史的新低的樣子。會不會\n\n10:05.263 --> 10:27.417\n總裁,會不會反而容易讓景氣互輸流於延耳盜鈴的這種政策的語言?會不會?應該是不會啦。不會喔?是啦。那個總裁,因為國內的整個股匯市的走勢呈現脫鉤相較於整個台股平創新高近期雖然有回檔的壓力但是新台幣匯率\n\n10:28.537 --> 10:41.106\n似乎還是呈現貶值的這種趨勢那請問總裁以目前整個市場供需的氛圍新台幣匯率有沒有可能會繼續貶值失守到32.5元的關卡\n\n10:43.468 --> 11:03.120\n會不會?匯率,第一個我跟委員報告匯率他是供需決定的,沒有錯啦那我就說他會不會失守32.5這個我不敢說啦這個很難預測而且呢我們的匯率匯率的走勢就成為我在報告裡面所講的匯率是一個相對性啦\n\n11:04.261 --> 11:22.077\n相對性所謂相對性就是說到整個美元獨強你看看美元獨強所有的貨幣都在貶值的時候新台幣大概也沒辦法就是說置身事外那你如果說大家都在貶只有新台幣在升值好像這個也不是很\n\n11:24.118 --> 11:44.425\n總裁,3月底總裁對於新台幣貶不停表示說主要原因是美元超強。那請問經過兩個月美元超強是不是還是新台幣貶值的主要原因?還是嗎?還是。就你了解美元超強的形態,短期內到底有沒有可能發生變化?\n\n11:45.265 --> 11:45.565\n目前整個美國通膨能高\n\n12:03.763 --> 12:23.132\n原本對年準會短期內降息的期待恐怕會落空的機率很大再加上今年美國大選那外界預估11月大選前利率都不可能變動總裁如果年底前美元持續強勢新台幣持續的弱勢請問你認為對國內整個金融市場股會市乃至於說國內的整個經濟環境\n\n12:30.456 --> 12:31.677\n我們應該要如何去因應呢?\n\n13:05.508 --> 13:06.270\n謝謝,下一位請吳秉瑞吳衛文\n\n","segments":[{"start":1.09,"end":5.677,"text":"謝謝主席是不是請央行楊總裁請楊總裁李委員早總裁你好我請教因為"},{"start":15.512,"end":31.961,"text":"我們整個國內的房市在新清安點火下越燒越旺那央行近期邀請房仲業還有銀行業者喝咖啡那接下來央行伺服會有新一波的信用管制"},{"start":34.627,"end":62.403,"text":"我跟委員報告就是說我們從我們實施選擇性信任管制以來我們都會這個是一個很例行性的我們會請銀行來聽聽他們的意見我們會請一些的專家學者或是黃仲偉來跟中央銀行大家來互相討論整個的所以這一次並不是非常特殊"},{"start":63.564,"end":64.225,"text":"那你喝完咖啡以後"},{"start":75.97,"end":94.575,"text":"你們未來會不會擴大來信用管制可能會不排除來調降高總價的租宅門檻會不會我跟委員報告就是說我們基本上每一次我老實跟委員報告我們每一次都會來討論這些的問題"},{"start":96.435,"end":110.87,"text":"所以目前我就說6月13日是我們禮監事會就6月份的這一次會在6月13日開那這一次開我想會跟以前一樣的都會針對這個議題來討論"},{"start":114.554,"end":118.055,"text":"都會針對這個議題來討論所以我就已經跟委員報告了那你現在有沒有什麼想法基本上如果說我們從這個數據來看的話確實就是說第一個我們的房價居高不下而且它的資源還是集中在那個就是說它的那個比例"},{"start":138.399,"end":139.059,"text":"總裁4月份整個天候"},{"start":167.964,"end":184.414,"text":"不加造成蔬菜價格上升再加上4月份電價的上漲以及6月份夏季電價的實施那央行你怎麼看我們整個國內物價通貨能力2%是未來的一個新形態呢?"},{"start":187.352,"end":201.957,"text":"我想就是說委員我跟委員報告就是說上一次呢我們在3月份的禮監事會的時候我們的升息辦嘛主要就是說通膨預期因為在那個時候啊我們就是說我們的預測就是說今年的物價可能會2.16就是說2.16那"},{"start":211.001,"end":226.399,"text":"委員您也知道主計總署最近他也修了他的一個物價CPI的一個水準現在也已經到2.03或2.07的樣子所以也就是說但是我跟委員報告"},{"start":227.62,"end":252.689,"text":"我們的CPI還有扣CPI那還有就是17項的這個民生用品那還有就是說每個月至少購買一次的這個物價水準齁都是慢慢在下來的都是慢慢在下來的我請教齁總裁因為主計總署有更新整個經濟的預測上修今年的全年經濟成長率到3.94%"},{"start":256.69,"end":277.566,"text":"那這個陳淑芝主席長說目前整個經濟的情勢屬於緩慢的上升力道不算強勁還不到火熱的這種程度那我請問總裁從現在到年底前的整個景氣狀況你的看法是不是和主席總書一致呢我想我們"},{"start":279.668,"end":282.029,"text":"我們上一次呢我們的經濟成長率呢我們是3.22好像是3.22不過呢他在第一季呢主委總署他有修改了這個有提高了這個第一季的經濟成長率"},{"start":296.713,"end":300.836,"text":"那如果說我們根據第一次的經濟成長包括我們234的經濟成長率整個來來重新計算的話呢我們大概會調升到3.5但是呢這個不是我們最後的這個的那個"},{"start":314.864,"end":328.004,"text":"現在中央銀行的立場你們跟組織總署是不是有相同的概念?我想基本上會大致是一樣的我們也看到就是說我們的經濟是在復甦但是不是非常的強勁"},{"start":329.827,"end":352.872,"text":"就是如果景氣要是反彈力道持續的軟弱無力那請問你認為目前有沒有景氣再度翻轉往下的這種存在的餘力啊?我想就是說都會有不確定性的因素不過這些不確定的因素到目前來看的話好像在影響這個Train這個走勢的好像看不出來"},{"start":357.233,"end":372.588,"text":"所以基本上呢我們還是認為就是說是有這樣的往上往上復甦的一個現象總裁上個禮拜央行發布第18期金融穩定報告本席也瞭解央行事情的四大風險雖然央行強調會密切來關注後續的發展並適時的"},{"start":377.632,"end":397.141,"text":"採取因應的措施以促進整個金融的穩定那北溪還是想要請教總裁央行關注的四大風險今年第一次禮監事會就已經提出那請問經過這兩個多月後請問央行關注的後續發展四大風險到底有沒有什麼變化"},{"start":399.082,"end":426.244,"text":"還是適當的風險還是一樣維持如果有變化的話這種狀況是往好的方面還是往壞的方面呢我在想齁就是說其中有一項我們所關注的就是說各個主要經濟體他的那個降息的預期降息的預期這個部分可能就是說可能是往好的"},{"start":428.446,"end":449.805,"text":"當然就是說降息是對市場來講是往好的但是他之所以會降息是因為就是說是慢慢的他的景氣就越來越不好他才會降息包括委員今天也知道加拿大央行今天就他昨天就降息了那6月份的時候可能歐元區他也會降息"},{"start":450.425,"end":453.948,"text":"總裁,如果都沒有變化,那哪一項的風險成就或發生,你認為對台灣的衝擊會最大呢?"},{"start":473.265,"end":495.498,"text":"我在想目前都還是在掌控當中還是在掌控當中總裁因為景氣反彈力道不大那央行又勢警勢到風險未來整個景氣能是堪慮或許政府官員會議預測機構的說法股市和房市現階段的整個狀況來說服整個外界"},{"start":498.62,"end":517.737,"text":"對整個情緒不明會緩轉的一個疑慮但是畢竟實際這個體會感受生活環境會是越來越不友善的是一般的老百姓那對於這個屏幕這個差距變大前主席長朱哲銘曾說分配"},{"start":518.598,"end":522.899,"text":"總裁,你認為透過財政社會福利政策的改善分配能夠有效緩和整個貧富差距的變大嗎?"},{"start":539.485,"end":542.207,"text":"因為那個總裁依現況來看貧富差距似乎已經不可逆了"},{"start":561.859,"end":582.915,"text":"那如果景氣沒有辦法出現像數十年前台灣整個經濟起飛的時期創造出共存共榮的這種經濟奇蹟那請問總裁你認為長期依賴政府政策補貼過日子的多數民眾能夠真實感受到景氣好轉嗎?"},{"start":584.596,"end":602.602,"text":"不過我跟委員報告,基本上我剛剛也是跟委員報告,就是說我們今年應該是在復甦的當中,是復甦的當中,所以基本上我們的就業率現在來看,我們的就業率也是好像是歷史的新低的樣子。會不會"},{"start":605.263,"end":627.417,"text":"總裁,會不會反而容易讓景氣互輸流於延耳盜鈴的這種政策的語言?會不會?應該是不會啦。不會喔?是啦。那個總裁,因為國內的整個股匯市的走勢呈現脫鉤相較於整個台股平創新高近期雖然有回檔的壓力但是新台幣匯率"},{"start":628.537,"end":641.106,"text":"似乎還是呈現貶值的這種趨勢那請問總裁以目前整個市場供需的氛圍新台幣匯率有沒有可能會繼續貶值失守到32.5元的關卡"},{"start":643.468,"end":663.12,"text":"會不會?匯率,第一個我跟委員報告匯率他是供需決定的,沒有錯啦那我就說他會不會失守32.5這個我不敢說啦這個很難預測而且呢我們的匯率匯率的走勢就成為我在報告裡面所講的匯率是一個相對性啦"},{"start":664.261,"end":682.077,"text":"相對性所謂相對性就是說到整個美元獨強你看看美元獨強所有的貨幣都在貶值的時候新台幣大概也沒辦法就是說置身事外那你如果說大家都在貶只有新台幣在升值好像這個也不是很"},{"start":684.118,"end":704.425,"text":"總裁,3月底總裁對於新台幣貶不停表示說主要原因是美元超強。那請問經過兩個月美元超強是不是還是新台幣貶值的主要原因?還是嗎?還是。就你了解美元超強的形態,短期內到底有沒有可能發生變化?"},{"start":705.265,"end":705.565,"text":"目前整個美國通膨能高"},{"start":723.763,"end":743.132,"text":"原本對年準會短期內降息的期待恐怕會落空的機率很大再加上今年美國大選那外界預估11月大選前利率都不可能變動總裁如果年底前美元持續強勢新台幣持續的弱勢請問你認為對國內整個金融市場股會市乃至於說國內的整個經濟環境"},{"start":750.456,"end":751.677,"text":"我們應該要如何去因應呢?"},{"start":785.508,"end":786.27,"text":"謝謝,下一位請吳秉瑞 吳衛文"}]}}}}