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\"end\": 559.257, \"score\": 0.864}, {\"word\": \"保\", \"start\": 559.257, \"end\": 559.697, \"score\": 0.671}, {\"word\": \"議\"}, {\"word\": \"題\"}, {\"word\": \"合\", \"start\": 559.697, \"end\": 559.877, \"score\": 0.9}, {\"word\": \"作\", \"start\": 559.877, \"end\": 559.998, \"score\": 0.906}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 559.998, \"end\": 560.018, \"score\": 0.71}, {\"word\": \"網\"}, {\"word\": \"絡\"}]}, {\"start\": 560.638, \"end\": 560.658, \"text\": \"韓國瑜議員\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"韓\"}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"瑜\", \"start\": 560.638, \"end\": 560.658, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"議\"}, {\"word\": \"員\"}]}, {\"start\": 576.496, \"end\": 602.157, \"text\": \"也許台灣並不是直接加入這些每日主導的小多邊的機制,不是直接參加,但是還是可以透過各種的管道來針對這些機制所關切的安全議題,海洋安全議題或是相關產業鏈安全的議題來交換意見。所以在目前為止亞洲還是沒有辦法像北約這樣子,就是有一個真正的一個軍事聯盟,因為我們可能也沒有辦法組成一個\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 576.496, \"end\": 576.676, \"score\": 0.788}, {\"word\": \"許\", \"start\": 576.676, \"end\": 577.917, \"score\": 0.837}, {\"word\": 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{\"word\": \"敵\"}, {\"word\": \"後\", \"start\": 653.223, \"end\": 653.243, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"滲\"}, {\"word\": \"透\", \"start\": 653.243, \"end\": 653.363, \"score\": 0.833}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 653.363, \"end\": 653.383, \"score\": 0.001}, {\"word\": \"相\", \"start\": 653.383, \"end\": 653.403, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"關\"}, {\"word\": \"活\", \"start\": 653.403, \"end\": 653.483, \"score\": 0.746}, {\"word\": \"動\"}, {\"word\": \"。\"}, {\"word\": \"所\", \"start\": 653.483, \"end\": 653.583, \"score\": 0.79}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 653.583, \"end\": 653.723, \"score\": 0.856}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 653.723, \"end\": 653.883, \"score\": 0.873}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 653.883, \"end\": 654.063, \"score\": 0.888}, {\"word\": \"戰\"}, {\"word\": \"場\"}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 654.063, \"end\": 654.244, \"score\": 0.986}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 654.244, \"end\": 654.344, \"score\": 0.993}, {\"word\": \"角\", \"start\": 654.344, \"end\": 654.584, \"score\": 0.995}, {\"word\": \"色\", \"start\": 654.584, \"end\": 654.684, \"score\": 0.962}, {\"word\": \"大\", \"start\": 654.684, \"end\": 654.764, \"score\": 0.727}, {\"word\": \"概\", \"start\": 654.764, \"end\": 654.824, \"score\": 0.667}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 654.824, \"end\": 654.844, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"處\"}, {\"word\": \"於\", \"start\": 654.844, \"end\": 654.864, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"部\", \"start\": 654.864, \"end\": 654.884, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"分\", \"start\": 654.884, \"end\": 654.904, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"。\"}]}, {\"start\": 674.497, \"end\": 677.099, \"text\": \"北韓是比較沒有那麼多經驗沒有那麼熟悉的所以對於北韓的戰場角色可能還要在後續來觀察\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"北\", \"start\": 674.497, \"end\": 674.577, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"韓\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 674.577, \"end\": 674.597, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"比\", \"start\": 674.597, \"end\": 674.657, \"score\": 0.667}, {\"word\": \"較\"}, {\"word\": \"沒\", \"start\": 674.657, \"end\": 674.677, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 674.677, \"end\": 674.697, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 674.697, \"end\": 674.817, \"score\": 0.945}, {\"word\": \"麼\"}, {\"word\": \"多\", \"start\": 674.817, \"end\": 674.977, \"score\": 0.777}, {\"word\": \"經\"}, {\"word\": \"驗\"}, {\"word\": \"沒\", \"start\": 674.977, \"end\": 675.137, \"score\": 0.794}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 675.137, \"end\": 675.258, \"score\": 0.759}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 675.258, \"end\": 675.338, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"麼\"}, {\"word\": \"熟\", \"start\": 675.338, \"end\": 675.398, \"score\": 0.623}, {\"word\": \"悉\", \"start\": 675.398, \"end\": 675.418, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 675.418, \"end\": 675.498, \"score\": 0.751}, {\"word\": \"所\", \"start\": 675.498, \"end\": 675.578, \"score\": 0.69}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 675.578, \"end\": 675.718, \"score\": 0.843}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"於\", \"start\": 675.718, \"end\": 675.838, \"score\": 0.833}, {\"word\": \"北\", \"start\": 675.838, \"end\": 675.878, \"score\": 0.455}, {\"word\": \"韓\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 675.878, \"end\": 676.018, \"score\": 0.993}, {\"word\": \"戰\"}, {\"word\": \"場\"}, {\"word\": \"角\", \"start\": 676.018, \"end\": 676.178, \"score\": 0.842}, {\"word\": \"色\", \"start\": 676.178, \"end\": 676.218, \"score\": 0.499}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 676.218, \"end\": 676.719, \"score\": 0.922}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 676.719, \"end\": 676.739, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"還\"}, {\"word\": \"要\", \"start\": 676.739, \"end\": 676.839, \"score\": 0.789}, {\"word\": \"在\", \"start\": 676.839, \"end\": 676.959, \"score\": 0.82}, {\"word\": \"後\", \"start\": 676.959, \"end\": 677.079, \"score\": 0.832}, {\"word\": \"續\"}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"觀\"}, {\"word\": \"察\", \"start\": 677.079, \"end\": 677.099, \"score\": 0.0}]}, {\"start\": 695.669, \"end\": 719.486, \"text\": \"所以南韓他所擔心的可能會擴大到東亞,可能目前還看不到是不是?對,這個部分確實有這樣的關切,他的關切角度是,假如北韓跟俄國有這樣的一個同盟軍事合作的話,萬一未來北韓要在朝鮮半島新興的話,俄國會不會來支持北韓?那這是大概南韓的國安部門跟情報部門目前關注的主要的重點。\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"所\", \"start\": 695.669, \"end\": 695.769, \"score\": 0.799}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 695.769, \"end\": 695.829, \"score\": 0.666}, {\"word\": \"南\", \"start\": 695.829, \"end\": 696.209, \"score\": 0.909}, {\"word\": \"韓\"}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 696.209, \"end\": 696.39, \"score\": 0.965}, {\"word\": \"所\", \"start\": 696.39, \"end\": 696.75, \"score\": 0.942}, {\"word\": \"擔\"}, {\"word\": \"心\", \"start\": 696.75, \"end\": 696.89, \"score\": 0.927}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 696.89, \"end\": 696.99, \"score\": 0.987}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 696.99, \"end\": 697.13, \"score\": 0.97}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 697.13, \"end\": 697.61, \"score\": 0.914}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"擴\"}, {\"word\": \"大\", \"start\": 697.61, \"end\": 697.851, \"score\": 0.911}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 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00:00:02,910\n謝主席羅委員長\n\n2\n00:00:05,292 --> 00:00:33,593\n局長長,在上個禮拜美國、烏克蘭跟北約其實都先後證實了這個朝鮮的已經派遣部隊到俄羅斯去做這個參戰那當然原判是北韓是為了要履行他跟這個俄羅斯剛剛簽訂的這個全面戰略夥伴關係條約也就是說一個國一國的如果因為入侵進入戰爭的這個狀態的話另一個國家就必須要提供這個軍事這個這個協助那當然北韓也得到他想要比如說糧食、武器等等\n\n3\n00:00:34,893 --> 00:00:59,581\n可是跟俄羅斯有簽署軍事互助協議的不單單只有北韓包含像白俄羅斯、伊朗跟中國都有簽訂在俄羅斯兵力嚴重短缺的狀況之下之前俄羅斯的媒體曾經點名要求這幾個國家對俄羅斯提供更進一步的協助我想請教\n\n4\n00:01:00,881 --> 00:01:07,223\n主要原因有北韓的一些戰略的盤算希望透過這樣的一個參戰來得到俄國更多方面的一個支持包括經濟的援助以及火箭技術的提供那可以了解\n\n5\n00:01:28,911 --> 00:01:48,443\n委員的關切就是擔心在北韓參戰之後那會不會有更多其他俄國的友盟來加入戰局那變成戰事會不斷的擴大變成一種區域的比較廣泛的一個戰事或是升溫的一個跡象那不過跟委員說明的是在現階段來講那因為在俄烏的戰場上\n\n6\n00:01:51,045 --> 00:02:09,829\n烏克蘭跟俄國都開始進入一種所謂的戰時經濟的狀態希望能夠來盡量的來支撐戰局那也在評估是不是在美國大選之後會有一些新的國際運輸的變化來影響整個俄烏戰局的後續發展那現階段看起來還沒有看到有其他的\n\n7\n00:02:10,310 --> 00:02:13,492\n北韓是一個很特殊的案例因為他長期以來就遭受到西方國家的經濟制裁所以他在權衡得失之後才會在這個時間點來加入俄烏的戰局\n\n8\n00:02:30,635 --> 00:02:58,002\n所以我們國人所擔心的比如說我們也很擔心中國來參戰嘛因為這樣子的話其實可以取得一個實戰的這個經驗我想國人應該也是非常擔心當然我剛才看到國防部也好或者是在國安局也好有提到就其實中國對這個部分基本上他是不想要去做評論也希望能夠保持一個低調的態度那當然我也看過一些報導就說中國可能也希望在這一局裡面能夠扮演一個類似\n\n9\n00:02:59,162 --> 00:02:59,563\n對,沒有這樣的跡象。\n\n10\n00:03:16,176 --> 00:03:17,537\n日本在前陣子的眾議院改選當中自民黨跟公民黨執政聯盟沒有辦法取得過半的席次\n\n11\n00:03:32,665 --> 00:03:35,989\n不管怎麼樣就算說11月11號舉辦這個國會舉辦這個首相這個選舉時破帽如果真的順利連任的話我想這個日本還是會出現一些不同的一些走向可能還是會出現新的一個證據所以我們比較擔心就是說當然我也看到就是說\n\n12\n00:03:54,808 --> 00:04:16,864\n國安局跟國防部的這個報告就是說日本友台的態度基本上是這基調是不變的可是問題是畢竟自民黨過去友台這個方向會不會因為這個潮小野大會面臨不同的局面雖然是友台可是台日之間的關係會不會有一些微妙的這個變化會不會有\n\n13\n00:04:19,996 --> 00:04:42,411\n對,就台日關係的發展來講,那剛剛委員也提到我們在口頭報告的時候已經有說明因為主要的政黨包括自民黨以及主要的在野黨包括立憲民主黨以及主要的另外一個重要的在野黨包括日本維新會他們在選舉過程當中對於台日關係都有一些討論跟論述那基本的主軸都還是在於台日安全有緊密的聯動性\n\n14\n00:04:43,752 --> 00:05:01,484\n那在這樣的一個基調之下那也許日本的政局因為政黨聯合內閣的組合會有一些不同的新的政黨加入這個團隊但是你去仔細的檢視各個政黨基本的立場還有基調大概對於維持跟台灣的關係都有一個非常長期的一個相關的一個主張\n\n15\n00:05:02,604 --> 00:05:17,011\n指向他們的國家安保戰略裡面第一次就來定義台日這個關係就是說台灣是日本極重要的友人那對於中國他的定義是日本前所未有之最大戰略挑戰\n\n16\n00:05:18,972 --> 00:05:38,266\n是一個比較客氣的一個說法那當然像這個他這個定義是全政治才做這個定義會不會因為我們也想說這個因為新政局的這個產生這個前面所謂的台日之間的關係會不會有所改變那當然我想的改變並不是說他友台這個態度改變\n\n17\n00:06:01,668 --> 00:06:29,297\n對,基本上去檢視日本政壇的各個政黨的一個基本立場剛有提到了在對台政策的部分是希望加強跟台灣在各個領域的合作能夠進一步的來深化那也去重視到台海安全可能對於日本自身安全產生的一個影響所以對於台海問題非常的關注這是為什麼日本在很多包括雙邊或多邊的這種安全或高層會談當中都持續的去表述對於台海核穩的重視那這大概是第一部分跟委員說明\n\n18\n00:06:30,157 --> 00:06:49,328\n那對於這些日本政黨對於中國的關係會不會影響台日的關係目前看起來倒不至於因為在對中國的關係來看日本是希望能夠穩定穩定跟中國的關係而不是說去加強所謂的戰略面或其他領域更深入的合作他們是在做一種戰略的管理\n\n19\n00:06:49,688 --> 00:07:18,339\n所以我們可以預期也許在10天之後的APEC峰會會有中日元首的一個互動那我們所理解到的是討論的議題大概都還是聚焦在他們自己雙邊的議題包括日本的公民在中國大陸的人身安全的問題以及日本的相關的水產進口的問題所以我們看到的這種中日議題主要都還是在這種比較技術面或經貿面的一個討論沒有涉及到他們更深入在安保或戰略面的一個合作\n\n20\n00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:38,954\n石破茂一直有提到一個構想就是亞洲版北約那亞洲版北約說實在我們所看到美國也好印度也好基本上他們是不支持的美國甚至還說為時過早印太還沒有準備\n\n21\n00:07:39,614 --> 00:08:00,959\n甚至我們看到日本的官員態度也是非常的保守他說還需要中長期的規劃應該來先強化美日同盟當然時破茂他會提亞洲版北約就是因為他認為說近日烏克蘭就是明日東亞他會有這個想法就希望說我們亞洲也必須要有一個軍事防衛的一個聯盟可是看起來這個是\n\n22\n00:08:02,379 --> 00:08:25,485\n不可行,我們是覺得種種的客觀的因素,比如說不管是在亞洲地方有主權的爭議或地緣條件等等,好像這個亞洲版北約我想要推行真的不太容易。那可是基於這個,我們畢竟還是需要,基本上我們以台灣來講的話,我們還是需要有一個類似亞洲的軍事防衛的聯盟。\n\n23\n00:08:27,725 --> 00:08:57,058\n局長你怎麼看,如果說我們要怎麼來運用這防衛合作的這個架構目前現有的?對,那就石破首相他確實有提出亞洲版北約的一個構想那也正如委員所提到的,因為這個構想還沒有一些細部的規劃所以自民黨內部也成立一個專責的小組希望針對日本對外的安保政策能夠再有一個比較深入跟全面的一個討論那就亞洲版北約後續的發展可能主要的重點還是在於日本怎麼樣來加強跟美國在這一方面強化合作的磋商\n\n24\n00:08:57,958 --> 00:09:20,018\n讓美日同盟加N,讓美日同盟可以變成一個加N的機制,有更多的國家來加入相關的安保或相關議題的一個合作那除了美日同盟加N以外,現有的Quad還有現有的AUKUS也都是多邊合作的機制那怎麼樣把這些小多邊的合作機制能夠串成一個區域在安保議題合作的網絡\n\n25\n00:09:20,638 --> 00:09:20,658\n韓國瑜議員\n\n26\n00:09:36,496 --> 00:10:02,157\n也許台灣並不是直接加入這些每日主導的小多邊的機制,不是直接參加,但是還是可以透過各種的管道來針對這些機制所關切的安全議題,海洋安全議題或是相關產業鏈安全的議題來交換意見。所以在目前為止亞洲還是沒有辦法像北約這樣子,就是有一個真正的一個軍事聯盟,因為我們可能也沒有辦法組成一個\n\n27\n00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:30,299\n北約還是有它的歷史背景在冷戰的對抗氣氛之下有一個非常緊密的軍事它是一個軍事同盟的合作那再加上文化還有價值理念的一個共同性那以及彼此之間沒有那麼多的領土爭議所以讓北約可以幾十年來有一個穩定的防衛機制來因應各種威脅挑戰那亞洲部分目前的條件可能還有一些需要在透過各國來討論來建構\n\n28\n00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:32,341\n北韓投入的兵力規模\n\n29\n00:10:50,401 --> 00:10:54,904\n北韓這次投入的部隊是它的風暴軍團,年紀都比較輕,二十幾歲。這個風暴軍團主要都是步兵的士兵,可能從事的是城鎮作戰跟敵後滲透的相關活動。所以他們的戰場上的角色大概是處於這個部分。\n\n30\n00:11:14,497 --> 00:11:17,099\n北韓是比較沒有那麼多經驗沒有那麼熟悉的所以對於北韓的戰場角色可能還要在後續來觀察\n\n31\n00:11:35,669 --> 00:11:59,486\n所以南韓他所擔心的可能會擴大到東亞,可能目前還看不到是不是?對,這個部分確實有這樣的關切,他的關切角度是,假如北韓跟俄國有這樣的一個同盟軍事合作的話,萬一未來北韓要在朝鮮半島新興的話,俄國會不會來支持北韓?那這是大概南韓的國安部門跟情報部門目前關注的主要的重點。\n\n32\n00:12:01,808 --> 00:12:21,853\n當然這都是,所以現在世界上非常的動亂,全球都非常的動亂,那台灣處在一個地緣政治上這麼重要的一個位置,所以我們還是要特別的注意,我們比較擔心的是聯動性,這聯動性像剛才我有提到的,像南韓很擔心就是說會擴及到\n\n33\n00:12:22,493 --> 00:12:22,714\n謝謝委員提醒\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n2446\t2910\t謝主席 羅委員長\n5292\t33593\t局長長,在上個禮拜美國、烏克蘭跟北約其實都先後證實了這個朝鮮的已經派遣部隊到俄羅斯去做這個參戰那當然原判是北韓是為了要履行他跟這個俄羅斯剛剛簽訂的這個全面戰略夥伴關係條約也就是說一個國一國的如果因為入侵進入戰爭的這個狀態的話另一個國家就必須要提供這個軍事這個這個協助那當然北韓也得到他想要比如說糧食、武器等等\n34893\t59581\t可是跟俄羅斯有簽署軍事互助協議的不單單只有北韓包含像白俄羅斯、伊朗跟中國都有簽訂在俄羅斯兵力嚴重短缺的狀況之下之前俄羅斯的媒體曾經點名要求這幾個國家對俄羅斯提供更進一步的協助我想請教\n60881\t67223\t主要原因有北韓的一些戰略的盤算希望透過這樣的一個參戰來得到俄國更多方面的一個支持包括經濟的援助以及火箭技術的提供那可以了解\n88911\t108443\t委員的關切就是擔心在北韓參戰之後那會不會有更多其他俄國的友盟來加入戰局那變成戰事會不斷的擴大變成一種區域的比較廣泛的一個戰事或是升溫的一個跡象那不過跟委員說明的是在現階段來講那因為在俄烏的戰場上\n111045\t129829\t烏克蘭跟俄國都開始進入一種所謂的戰時經濟的狀態希望能夠來盡量的來支撐戰局那也在評估是不是在美國大選之後會有一些新的國際運輸的變化來影響整個俄烏戰局的後續發展那現階段看起來還沒有看到有其他的\n130310\t133492\t北韓是一個很特殊的案例因為他長期以來就遭受到西方國家的經濟制裁所以他在權衡得失之後才會在這個時間點來加入俄烏的戰局\n150635\t178002\t所以我們國人所擔心的比如說我們也很擔心中國來參戰嘛因為這樣子的話其實可以取得一個實戰的這個經驗我想國人應該也是非常擔心當然我剛才看到國防部也好或者是在國安局也好有提到就其實中國對這個部分基本上他是不想要去做評論也希望能夠保持一個低調的態度那當然我也看過一些報導就說中國可能也希望在這一局裡面能夠扮演一個類似\n179162\t179563\t對,沒有這樣的跡象。\n196176\t197537\t日本在前陣子的眾議院改選當中自民黨跟公民黨執政聯盟沒有辦法取得過半的席次\n212665\t215989\t不管怎麼樣就算說11月11號舉辦這個國會舉辦這個首相這個選舉時破帽如果真的順利連任的話我想這個日本還是會出現一些不同的一些走向可能還是會出現新的一個證據所以我們比較擔心就是說當然我也看到就是說\n234808\t256864\t國安局跟國防部的這個報告就是說日本友台的態度基本上是這基調是不變的可是問題是畢竟自民黨過去友台這個方向會不會因為這個潮小野大會面臨不同的局面雖然是友台可是台日之間的關係會不會有一些微妙的這個變化會不會有\n259996\t282411\t對,就台日關係的發展來講,那剛剛委員也提到我們在口頭報告的時候已經有說明因為主要的政黨包括自民黨以及主要的在野黨包括立憲民主黨以及主要的另外一個重要的在野黨包括日本維新會他們在選舉過程當中對於台日關係都有一些討論跟論述那基本的主軸都還是在於台日安全有緊密的聯動性\n283752\t301484\t那在這樣的一個基調之下那也許日本的政局因為政黨聯合內閣的組合會有一些不同的新的政黨加入這個團隊但是你去仔細的檢視各個政黨基本的立場還有基調大概對於維持跟台灣的關係都有一個非常長期的一個相關的一個主張\n302604\t317011\t指向他們的國家安保戰略裡面第一次就來定義台日這個關係就是說台灣是日本極重要的友人那對於中國他的定義是日本前所未有之最大戰略挑戰\n318972\t338266\t是一個比較客氣的一個說法那當然像這個他這個定義是全政治才做這個定義會不會因為我們也想說這個因為新政局的這個產生這個前面所謂的台日之間的關係會不會有所改變那當然我想的改變並不是說他友台這個態度改變\n341869\t361408\t對．\n361668\t389297\t對,基本上去檢視日本政壇的各個政黨的一個基本立場剛有提到了在對台政策的部分是希望加強跟台灣在各個領域的合作能夠進一步的來深化那也去重視到台海安全可能對於日本自身安全產生的一個影響所以對於台海問題非常的關注這是為什麼日本在很多包括雙邊或多邊的這種安全或高層會談當中都持續的去表述對於台海核穩的重視那這大概是第一部分跟委員說明\n390157\t409328\t那對於這些日本政黨對於中國的關係會不會影響台日的關係目前看起來倒不至於因為在對中國的關係來看日本是希望能夠穩定穩定跟中國的關係而不是說去加強所謂的戰略面或其他領域更深入的合作他們是在做一種戰略的管理\n409688\t438339\t所以我們可以預期也許在10天之後的APEC峰會會有中日元首的一個互動那我們所理解到的是討論的議題大概都還是聚焦在他們自己雙邊的議題包括日本的公民在中國大陸的人身安全的問題以及日本的相關的水產進口的問題所以我們看到的這種中日議題主要都還是在這種比較技術面或經貿面的一個討論沒有涉及到他們更深入在安保或戰略面的一個合作\n439720\t458954\t石破茂一直有提到一個構想就是亞洲版北約那亞洲版北約說實在我們所看到美國也好印度也好基本上他們是不支持的美國甚至還說為時過早印太還沒有準備\n459614\t480959\t甚至我們看到日本的官員態度也是非常的保守他說還需要中長期的規劃應該來先強化美日同盟當然時破茂他會提亞洲版北約就是因為他認為說近日烏克蘭就是明日東亞他會有這個想法就希望說我們亞洲也必須要有一個軍事防衛的一個聯盟可是看起來這個是\n482379\t505485\t不可行,我們是覺得種種的客觀的因素,比如說不管是在亞洲地方有主權的爭議或地緣條件等等,好像這個亞洲版北約我想要推行真的不太容易。那可是基於這個,我們畢竟還是需要,基本上我們以台灣來講的話,我們還是需要有一個類似亞洲的軍事防衛的聯盟。\n507725\t537058\t局長你怎麼看,如果說我們要怎麼來運用這防衛合作的這個架構目前現有的?對,那就石破首相他確實有提出亞洲版北約的一個構想那也正如委員所提到的,因為這個構想還沒有一些細部的規劃所以自民黨內部也成立一個專責的小組希望針對日本對外的安保政策能夠再有一個比較深入跟全面的一個討論那就亞洲版北約後續的發展可能主要的重點還是在於日本怎麼樣來加強跟美國在這一方面強化合作的磋商\n537958\t560018\t讓美日同盟加N,讓美日同盟可以變成一個加N的機制,有更多的國家來加入相關的安保或相關議題的一個合作那除了美日同盟加N以外,現有的Quad還有現有的AUKUS也都是多邊合作的機制那怎麼樣把這些小多邊的合作機制能夠串成一個區域在安保議題合作的網絡\n560638\t560658\t韓國瑜議員\n576496\t602157\t也許台灣並不是直接加入這些每日主導的小多邊的機制,不是直接參加,但是還是可以透過各種的管道來針對這些機制所關切的安全議題,海洋安全議題或是相關產業鏈安全的議題來交換意見。所以在目前為止亞洲還是沒有辦法像北約這樣子,就是有一個真正的一個軍事聯盟,因為我們可能也沒有辦法組成一個\n605080\t630299\t北約還是有它的歷史背景在冷戰的對抗氣氛之下有一個非常緊密的軍事它是一個軍事同盟的合作那再加上文化還有價值理念的一個共同性那以及彼此之間沒有那麼多的領土爭議所以讓北約可以幾十年來有一個穩定的防衛機制來因應各種威脅挑戰那亞洲部分目前的條件可能還有一些需要在透過各國來討論來建構\n631880\t632341\t北韓投入的兵力規模\n650401\t654904\t北韓這次投入的部隊是它的風暴軍團,年紀都比較輕,二十幾歲。這個風暴軍團主要都是步兵的士兵,可能從事的是城鎮作戰跟敵後滲透的相關活動。所以他們的戰場上的角色大概是處於這個部分。\n674497\t677099\t北韓是比較沒有那麼多經驗沒有那麼熟悉的所以對於北韓的戰場角色可能還要在後續來觀察\n695669\t719486\t所以南韓他所擔心的可能會擴大到東亞,可能目前還看不到是不是?對,這個部分確實有這樣的關切,他的關切角度是,假如北韓跟俄國有這樣的一個同盟軍事合作的話,萬一未來北韓要在朝鮮半島新興的話,俄國會不會來支持北韓?那這是大概南韓的國安部門跟情報部門目前關注的主要的重點。\n721808\t741853\t當然這都是,所以現在世界上非常的動亂,全球都非常的動亂,那台灣處在一個地緣政治上這麼重要的一個位置,所以我們還是要特別的注意,我們比較擔心的是聯動性,這聯動性像剛才我有提到的,像南韓很擔心就是說會擴及到\n742493\t742714\t謝謝委員提醒\n","txt":"謝主席 羅委員長\n局長長,在上個禮拜美國、烏克蘭跟北約其實都先後證實了這個朝鮮的已經派遣部隊到俄羅斯去做這個參戰那當然原判是北韓是為了要履行他跟這個俄羅斯剛剛簽訂的這個全面戰略夥伴關係條約也就是說一個國一國的如果因為入侵進入戰爭的這個狀態的話另一個國家就必須要提供這個軍事這個這個協助那當然北韓也得到他想要比如說糧食、武器等等\n可是跟俄羅斯有簽署軍事互助協議的不單單只有北韓包含像白俄羅斯、伊朗跟中國都有簽訂在俄羅斯兵力嚴重短缺的狀況之下之前俄羅斯的媒體曾經點名要求這幾個國家對俄羅斯提供更進一步的協助我想請教\n主要原因有北韓的一些戰略的盤算希望透過這樣的一個參戰來得到俄國更多方面的一個支持包括經濟的援助以及火箭技術的提供那可以了解\n委員的關切就是擔心在北韓參戰之後那會不會有更多其他俄國的友盟來加入戰局那變成戰事會不斷的擴大變成一種區域的比較廣泛的一個戰事或是升溫的一個跡象那不過跟委員說明的是在現階段來講那因為在俄烏的戰場上\n烏克蘭跟俄國都開始進入一種所謂的戰時經濟的狀態希望能夠來盡量的來支撐戰局那也在評估是不是在美國大選之後會有一些新的國際運輸的變化來影響整個俄烏戰局的後續發展那現階段看起來還沒有看到有其他的\n北韓是一個很特殊的案例因為他長期以來就遭受到西方國家的經濟制裁所以他在權衡得失之後才會在這個時間點來加入俄烏的戰局\n所以我們國人所擔心的比如說我們也很擔心中國來參戰嘛因為這樣子的話其實可以取得一個實戰的這個經驗我想國人應該也是非常擔心當然我剛才看到國防部也好或者是在國安局也好有提到就其實中國對這個部分基本上他是不想要去做評論也希望能夠保持一個低調的態度那當然我也看過一些報導就說中國可能也希望在這一局裡面能夠扮演一個類似\n對,沒有這樣的跡象。\n日本在前陣子的眾議院改選當中自民黨跟公民黨執政聯盟沒有辦法取得過半的席次\n不管怎麼樣就算說11月11號舉辦這個國會舉辦這個首相這個選舉時破帽如果真的順利連任的話我想這個日本還是會出現一些不同的一些走向可能還是會出現新的一個證據所以我們比較擔心就是說當然我也看到就是說\n國安局跟國防部的這個報告就是說日本友台的態度基本上是這基調是不變的可是問題是畢竟自民黨過去友台這個方向會不會因為這個潮小野大會面臨不同的局面雖然是友台可是台日之間的關係會不會有一些微妙的這個變化會不會有\n對,就台日關係的發展來講,那剛剛委員也提到我們在口頭報告的時候已經有說明因為主要的政黨包括自民黨以及主要的在野黨包括立憲民主黨以及主要的另外一個重要的在野黨包括日本維新會他們在選舉過程當中對於台日關係都有一些討論跟論述那基本的主軸都還是在於台日安全有緊密的聯動性\n那在這樣的一個基調之下那也許日本的政局因為政黨聯合內閣的組合會有一些不同的新的政黨加入這個團隊但是你去仔細的檢視各個政黨基本的立場還有基調大概對於維持跟台灣的關係都有一個非常長期的一個相關的一個主張\n指向他們的國家安保戰略裡面第一次就來定義台日這個關係就是說台灣是日本極重要的友人那對於中國他的定義是日本前所未有之最大戰略挑戰\n是一個比較客氣的一個說法那當然像這個他這個定義是全政治才做這個定義會不會因為我們也想說這個因為新政局的這個產生這個前面所謂的台日之間的關係會不會有所改變那當然我想的改變並不是說他友台這個態度改變\n對．\n對,基本上去檢視日本政壇的各個政黨的一個基本立場剛有提到了在對台政策的部分是希望加強跟台灣在各個領域的合作能夠進一步的來深化那也去重視到台海安全可能對於日本自身安全產生的一個影響所以對於台海問題非常的關注這是為什麼日本在很多包括雙邊或多邊的這種安全或高層會談當中都持續的去表述對於台海核穩的重視那這大概是第一部分跟委員說明\n那對於這些日本政黨對於中國的關係會不會影響台日的關係目前看起來倒不至於因為在對中國的關係來看日本是希望能夠穩定穩定跟中國的關係而不是說去加強所謂的戰略面或其他領域更深入的合作他們是在做一種戰略的管理\n所以我們可以預期也許在10天之後的APEC峰會會有中日元首的一個互動那我們所理解到的是討論的議題大概都還是聚焦在他們自己雙邊的議題包括日本的公民在中國大陸的人身安全的問題以及日本的相關的水產進口的問題所以我們看到的這種中日議題主要都還是在這種比較技術面或經貿面的一個討論沒有涉及到他們更深入在安保或戰略面的一個合作\n石破茂一直有提到一個構想就是亞洲版北約那亞洲版北約說實在我們所看到美國也好印度也好基本上他們是不支持的美國甚至還說為時過早印太還沒有準備\n甚至我們看到日本的官員態度也是非常的保守他說還需要中長期的規劃應該來先強化美日同盟當然時破茂他會提亞洲版北約就是因為他認為說近日烏克蘭就是明日東亞他會有這個想法就希望說我們亞洲也必須要有一個軍事防衛的一個聯盟可是看起來這個是\n不可行,我們是覺得種種的客觀的因素,比如說不管是在亞洲地方有主權的爭議或地緣條件等等,好像這個亞洲版北約我想要推行真的不太容易。那可是基於這個,我們畢竟還是需要,基本上我們以台灣來講的話,我們還是需要有一個類似亞洲的軍事防衛的聯盟。\n局長你怎麼看,如果說我們要怎麼來運用這防衛合作的這個架構目前現有的?對,那就石破首相他確實有提出亞洲版北約的一個構想那也正如委員所提到的,因為這個構想還沒有一些細部的規劃所以自民黨內部也成立一個專責的小組希望針對日本對外的安保政策能夠再有一個比較深入跟全面的一個討論那就亞洲版北約後續的發展可能主要的重點還是在於日本怎麼樣來加強跟美國在這一方面強化合作的磋商\n讓美日同盟加N,讓美日同盟可以變成一個加N的機制,有更多的國家來加入相關的安保或相關議題的一個合作那除了美日同盟加N以外,現有的Quad還有現有的AUKUS也都是多邊合作的機制那怎麼樣把這些小多邊的合作機制能夠串成一個區域在安保議題合作的網絡\n韓國瑜議員\n也許台灣並不是直接加入這些每日主導的小多邊的機制,不是直接參加,但是還是可以透過各種的管道來針對這些機制所關切的安全議題,海洋安全議題或是相關產業鏈安全的議題來交換意見。所以在目前為止亞洲還是沒有辦法像北約這樣子,就是有一個真正的一個軍事聯盟,因為我們可能也沒有辦法組成一個\n北約還是有它的歷史背景在冷戰的對抗氣氛之下有一個非常緊密的軍事它是一個軍事同盟的合作那再加上文化還有價值理念的一個共同性那以及彼此之間沒有那麼多的領土爭議所以讓北約可以幾十年來有一個穩定的防衛機制來因應各種威脅挑戰那亞洲部分目前的條件可能還有一些需要在透過各國來討論來建構\n北韓投入的兵力規模\n北韓這次投入的部隊是它的風暴軍團,年紀都比較輕,二十幾歲。這個風暴軍團主要都是步兵的士兵,可能從事的是城鎮作戰跟敵後滲透的相關活動。所以他們的戰場上的角色大概是處於這個部分。\n北韓是比較沒有那麼多經驗沒有那麼熟悉的所以對於北韓的戰場角色可能還要在後續來觀察\n所以南韓他所擔心的可能會擴大到東亞,可能目前還看不到是不是?對,這個部分確實有這樣的關切,他的關切角度是,假如北韓跟俄國有這樣的一個同盟軍事合作的話,萬一未來北韓要在朝鮮半島新興的話,俄國會不會來支持北韓?那這是大概南韓的國安部門跟情報部門目前關注的主要的重點。\n當然這都是,所以現在世界上非常的動亂,全球都非常的動亂,那台灣處在一個地緣政治上這麼重要的一個位置,所以我們還是要特別的注意,我們比較擔心的是聯動性,這聯動性像剛才我有提到的,像南韓很擔心就是說會擴及到\n謝謝委員提醒\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:02.446 --> 00:02.910\n謝主席羅委員長\n\n00:05.292 --> 00:33.593\n局長長,在上個禮拜美國、烏克蘭跟北約其實都先後證實了這個朝鮮的已經派遣部隊到俄羅斯去做這個參戰那當然原判是北韓是為了要履行他跟這個俄羅斯剛剛簽訂的這個全面戰略夥伴關係條約也就是說一個國一國的如果因為入侵進入戰爭的這個狀態的話另一個國家就必須要提供這個軍事這個這個協助那當然北韓也得到他想要比如說糧食、武器等等\n\n00:34.893 --> 00:59.581\n可是跟俄羅斯有簽署軍事互助協議的不單單只有北韓包含像白俄羅斯、伊朗跟中國都有簽訂在俄羅斯兵力嚴重短缺的狀況之下之前俄羅斯的媒體曾經點名要求這幾個國家對俄羅斯提供更進一步的協助我想請教\n\n01:00.881 --> 01:07.223\n主要原因有北韓的一些戰略的盤算希望透過這樣的一個參戰來得到俄國更多方面的一個支持包括經濟的援助以及火箭技術的提供那可以了解\n\n01:28.911 --> 01:48.443\n委員的關切就是擔心在北韓參戰之後那會不會有更多其他俄國的友盟來加入戰局那變成戰事會不斷的擴大變成一種區域的比較廣泛的一個戰事或是升溫的一個跡象那不過跟委員說明的是在現階段來講那因為在俄烏的戰場上\n\n01:51.045 --> 02:09.829\n烏克蘭跟俄國都開始進入一種所謂的戰時經濟的狀態希望能夠來盡量的來支撐戰局那也在評估是不是在美國大選之後會有一些新的國際運輸的變化來影響整個俄烏戰局的後續發展那現階段看起來還沒有看到有其他的\n\n02:10.310 --> 02:13.492\n北韓是一個很特殊的案例因為他長期以來就遭受到西方國家的經濟制裁所以他在權衡得失之後才會在這個時間點來加入俄烏的戰局\n\n02:30.635 --> 02:58.002\n所以我們國人所擔心的比如說我們也很擔心中國來參戰嘛因為這樣子的話其實可以取得一個實戰的這個經驗我想國人應該也是非常擔心當然我剛才看到國防部也好或者是在國安局也好有提到就其實中國對這個部分基本上他是不想要去做評論也希望能夠保持一個低調的態度那當然我也看過一些報導就說中國可能也希望在這一局裡面能夠扮演一個類似\n\n02:59.162 --> 02:59.563\n對,沒有這樣的跡象。\n\n03:16.176 --> 03:17.537\n日本在前陣子的眾議院改選當中自民黨跟公民黨執政聯盟沒有辦法取得過半的席次\n\n03:32.665 --> 03:35.989\n不管怎麼樣就算說11月11號舉辦這個國會舉辦這個首相這個選舉時破帽如果真的順利連任的話我想這個日本還是會出現一些不同的一些走向可能還是會出現新的一個證據所以我們比較擔心就是說當然我也看到就是說\n\n03:54.808 --> 04:16.864\n國安局跟國防部的這個報告就是說日本友台的態度基本上是這基調是不變的可是問題是畢竟自民黨過去友台這個方向會不會因為這個潮小野大會面臨不同的局面雖然是友台可是台日之間的關係會不會有一些微妙的這個變化會不會有\n\n04:19.996 --> 04:42.411\n對,就台日關係的發展來講,那剛剛委員也提到我們在口頭報告的時候已經有說明因為主要的政黨包括自民黨以及主要的在野黨包括立憲民主黨以及主要的另外一個重要的在野黨包括日本維新會他們在選舉過程當中對於台日關係都有一些討論跟論述那基本的主軸都還是在於台日安全有緊密的聯動性\n\n04:43.752 --> 05:01.484\n那在這樣的一個基調之下那也許日本的政局因為政黨聯合內閣的組合會有一些不同的新的政黨加入這個團隊但是你去仔細的檢視各個政黨基本的立場還有基調大概對於維持跟台灣的關係都有一個非常長期的一個相關的一個主張\n\n05:02.604 --> 05:17.011\n指向他們的國家安保戰略裡面第一次就來定義台日這個關係就是說台灣是日本極重要的友人那對於中國他的定義是日本前所未有之最大戰略挑戰\n\n05:18.972 --> 05:38.266\n是一個比較客氣的一個說法那當然像這個他這個定義是全政治才做這個定義會不會因為我們也想說這個因為新政局的這個產生這個前面所謂的台日之間的關係會不會有所改變那當然我想的改變並不是說他友台這個態度改變\n\n06:01.668 --> 06:29.297\n對,基本上去檢視日本政壇的各個政黨的一個基本立場剛有提到了在對台政策的部分是希望加強跟台灣在各個領域的合作能夠進一步的來深化那也去重視到台海安全可能對於日本自身安全產生的一個影響所以對於台海問題非常的關注這是為什麼日本在很多包括雙邊或多邊的這種安全或高層會談當中都持續的去表述對於台海核穩的重視那這大概是第一部分跟委員說明\n\n06:30.157 --> 06:49.328\n那對於這些日本政黨對於中國的關係會不會影響台日的關係目前看起來倒不至於因為在對中國的關係來看日本是希望能夠穩定穩定跟中國的關係而不是說去加強所謂的戰略面或其他領域更深入的合作他們是在做一種戰略的管理\n\n06:49.688 --> 07:18.339\n所以我們可以預期也許在10天之後的APEC峰會會有中日元首的一個互動那我們所理解到的是討論的議題大概都還是聚焦在他們自己雙邊的議題包括日本的公民在中國大陸的人身安全的問題以及日本的相關的水產進口的問題所以我們看到的這種中日議題主要都還是在這種比較技術面或經貿面的一個討論沒有涉及到他們更深入在安保或戰略面的一個合作\n\n07:19.720 --> 07:38.954\n石破茂一直有提到一個構想就是亞洲版北約那亞洲版北約說實在我們所看到美國也好印度也好基本上他們是不支持的美國甚至還說為時過早印太還沒有準備\n\n07:39.614 --> 08:00.959\n甚至我們看到日本的官員態度也是非常的保守他說還需要中長期的規劃應該來先強化美日同盟當然時破茂他會提亞洲版北約就是因為他認為說近日烏克蘭就是明日東亞他會有這個想法就希望說我們亞洲也必須要有一個軍事防衛的一個聯盟可是看起來這個是\n\n08:02.379 --> 08:25.485\n不可行,我們是覺得種種的客觀的因素,比如說不管是在亞洲地方有主權的爭議或地緣條件等等,好像這個亞洲版北約我想要推行真的不太容易。那可是基於這個,我們畢竟還是需要,基本上我們以台灣來講的話,我們還是需要有一個類似亞洲的軍事防衛的聯盟。\n\n08:27.725 --> 08:57.058\n局長你怎麼看,如果說我們要怎麼來運用這防衛合作的這個架構目前現有的?對,那就石破首相他確實有提出亞洲版北約的一個構想那也正如委員所提到的,因為這個構想還沒有一些細部的規劃所以自民黨內部也成立一個專責的小組希望針對日本對外的安保政策能夠再有一個比較深入跟全面的一個討論那就亞洲版北約後續的發展可能主要的重點還是在於日本怎麼樣來加強跟美國在這一方面強化合作的磋商\n\n08:57.958 --> 09:20.018\n讓美日同盟加N,讓美日同盟可以變成一個加N的機制,有更多的國家來加入相關的安保或相關議題的一個合作那除了美日同盟加N以外,現有的Quad還有現有的AUKUS也都是多邊合作的機制那怎麼樣把這些小多邊的合作機制能夠串成一個區域在安保議題合作的網絡\n\n09:20.638 --> 09:20.658\n韓國瑜議員\n\n09:36.496 --> 10:02.157\n也許台灣並不是直接加入這些每日主導的小多邊的機制,不是直接參加,但是還是可以透過各種的管道來針對這些機制所關切的安全議題,海洋安全議題或是相關產業鏈安全的議題來交換意見。所以在目前為止亞洲還是沒有辦法像北約這樣子,就是有一個真正的一個軍事聯盟,因為我們可能也沒有辦法組成一個\n\n10:05.080 --> 10:30.299\n北約還是有它的歷史背景在冷戰的對抗氣氛之下有一個非常緊密的軍事它是一個軍事同盟的合作那再加上文化還有價值理念的一個共同性那以及彼此之間沒有那麼多的領土爭議所以讓北約可以幾十年來有一個穩定的防衛機制來因應各種威脅挑戰那亞洲部分目前的條件可能還有一些需要在透過各國來討論來建構\n\n10:31.880 --> 10:32.341\n北韓投入的兵力規模\n\n10:50.401 --> 10:54.904\n北韓這次投入的部隊是它的風暴軍團,年紀都比較輕,二十幾歲。這個風暴軍團主要都是步兵的士兵,可能從事的是城鎮作戰跟敵後滲透的相關活動。所以他們的戰場上的角色大概是處於這個部分。\n\n11:14.497 --> 11:17.099\n北韓是比較沒有那麼多經驗沒有那麼熟悉的所以對於北韓的戰場角色可能還要在後續來觀察\n\n11:35.669 --> 11:59.486\n所以南韓他所擔心的可能會擴大到東亞,可能目前還看不到是不是?對,這個部分確實有這樣的關切,他的關切角度是,假如北韓跟俄國有這樣的一個同盟軍事合作的話,萬一未來北韓要在朝鮮半島新興的話,俄國會不會來支持北韓?那這是大概南韓的國安部門跟情報部門目前關注的主要的重點。\n\n12:01.808 --> 12:21.853\n當然這都是,所以現在世界上非常的動亂,全球都非常的動亂,那台灣處在一個地緣政治上這麼重要的一個位置,所以我們還是要特別的注意,我們比較擔心的是聯動性,這聯動性像剛才我有提到的,像南韓很擔心就是說會擴及到\n\n12:22.493 --> 12:22.714\n謝謝委員提醒\n\n","segments":[{"start":2.446,"end":2.91,"text":"謝主席 羅委員長"},{"start":5.292,"end":33.593,"text":"局長長,在上個禮拜美國、烏克蘭跟北約其實都先後證實了這個朝鮮的已經派遣部隊到俄羅斯去做這個參戰那當然原判是北韓是為了要履行他跟這個俄羅斯剛剛簽訂的這個全面戰略夥伴關係條約也就是說一個國一國的如果因為入侵進入戰爭的這個狀態的話另一個國家就必須要提供這個軍事這個這個協助那當然北韓也得到他想要比如說糧食、武器等等"},{"start":34.893,"end":59.581,"text":"可是跟俄羅斯有簽署軍事互助協議的不單單只有北韓包含像白俄羅斯、伊朗跟中國都有簽訂在俄羅斯兵力嚴重短缺的狀況之下之前俄羅斯的媒體曾經點名要求這幾個國家對俄羅斯提供更進一步的協助我想請教"},{"start":60.881,"end":67.223,"text":"主要原因有北韓的一些戰略的盤算希望透過這樣的一個參戰來得到俄國更多方面的一個支持包括經濟的援助以及火箭技術的提供那可以了解"},{"start":88.911,"end":108.443,"text":"委員的關切就是擔心在北韓參戰之後那會不會有更多其他俄國的友盟來加入戰局那變成戰事會不斷的擴大變成一種區域的比較廣泛的一個戰事或是升溫的一個跡象那不過跟委員說明的是在現階段來講那因為在俄烏的戰場上"},{"start":111.045,"end":129.829,"text":"烏克蘭跟俄國都開始進入一種所謂的戰時經濟的狀態希望能夠來盡量的來支撐戰局那也在評估是不是在美國大選之後會有一些新的國際運輸的變化來影響整個俄烏戰局的後續發展那現階段看起來還沒有看到有其他的"},{"start":130.31,"end":133.492,"text":"北韓是一個很特殊的案例因為他長期以來就遭受到西方國家的經濟制裁所以他在權衡得失之後才會在這個時間點來加入俄烏的戰局"},{"start":150.635,"end":178.002,"text":"所以我們國人所擔心的比如說我們也很擔心中國來參戰嘛因為這樣子的話其實可以取得一個實戰的這個經驗我想國人應該也是非常擔心當然我剛才看到國防部也好或者是在國安局也好有提到就其實中國對這個部分基本上他是不想要去做評論也希望能夠保持一個低調的態度那當然我也看過一些報導就說中國可能也希望在這一局裡面能夠扮演一個類似"},{"start":179.162,"end":179.563,"text":"對,沒有這樣的跡象。"},{"start":196.176,"end":197.537,"text":"日本在前陣子的眾議院改選當中自民黨跟公民黨執政聯盟沒有辦法取得過半的席次"},{"start":212.665,"end":215.989,"text":"不管怎麼樣就算說11月11號舉辦這個國會舉辦這個首相這個選舉時破帽如果真的順利連任的話我想這個日本還是會出現一些不同的一些走向可能還是會出現新的一個證據所以我們比較擔心就是說當然我也看到就是說"},{"start":234.808,"end":256.864,"text":"國安局跟國防部的這個報告就是說日本友台的態度基本上是這基調是不變的可是問題是畢竟自民黨過去友台這個方向會不會因為這個潮小野大會面臨不同的局面雖然是友台可是台日之間的關係會不會有一些微妙的這個變化會不會有"},{"start":259.996,"end":282.411,"text":"對,就台日關係的發展來講,那剛剛委員也提到我們在口頭報告的時候已經有說明因為主要的政黨包括自民黨以及主要的在野黨包括立憲民主黨以及主要的另外一個重要的在野黨包括日本維新會他們在選舉過程當中對於台日關係都有一些討論跟論述那基本的主軸都還是在於台日安全有緊密的聯動性"},{"start":283.752,"end":301.484,"text":"那在這樣的一個基調之下那也許日本的政局因為政黨聯合內閣的組合會有一些不同的新的政黨加入這個團隊但是你去仔細的檢視各個政黨基本的立場還有基調大概對於維持跟台灣的關係都有一個非常長期的一個相關的一個主張"},{"start":302.604,"end":317.011,"text":"指向他們的國家安保戰略裡面第一次就來定義台日這個關係就是說台灣是日本極重要的友人那對於中國他的定義是日本前所未有之最大戰略挑戰"},{"start":318.972,"end":338.266,"text":"是一個比較客氣的一個說法那當然像這個他這個定義是全政治才做這個定義會不會因為我們也想說這個因為新政局的這個產生這個前面所謂的台日之間的關係會不會有所改變那當然我想的改變並不是說他友台這個態度改變"},{"start":341.869,"end":361.408,"text":"對．"},{"start":361.668,"end":389.297,"text":"對,基本上去檢視日本政壇的各個政黨的一個基本立場剛有提到了在對台政策的部分是希望加強跟台灣在各個領域的合作能夠進一步的來深化那也去重視到台海安全可能對於日本自身安全產生的一個影響所以對於台海問題非常的關注這是為什麼日本在很多包括雙邊或多邊的這種安全或高層會談當中都持續的去表述對於台海核穩的重視那這大概是第一部分跟委員說明"},{"start":390.157,"end":409.328,"text":"那對於這些日本政黨對於中國的關係會不會影響台日的關係目前看起來倒不至於因為在對中國的關係來看日本是希望能夠穩定穩定跟中國的關係而不是說去加強所謂的戰略面或其他領域更深入的合作他們是在做一種戰略的管理"},{"start":409.688,"end":438.339,"text":"所以我們可以預期也許在10天之後的APEC峰會會有中日元首的一個互動那我們所理解到的是討論的議題大概都還是聚焦在他們自己雙邊的議題包括日本的公民在中國大陸的人身安全的問題以及日本的相關的水產進口的問題所以我們看到的這種中日議題主要都還是在這種比較技術面或經貿面的一個討論沒有涉及到他們更深入在安保或戰略面的一個合作"},{"start":439.72,"end":458.954,"text":"石破茂一直有提到一個構想就是亞洲版北約那亞洲版北約說實在我們所看到美國也好印度也好基本上他們是不支持的美國甚至還說為時過早印太還沒有準備"},{"start":459.614,"end":480.959,"text":"甚至我們看到日本的官員態度也是非常的保守他說還需要中長期的規劃應該來先強化美日同盟當然時破茂他會提亞洲版北約就是因為他認為說近日烏克蘭就是明日東亞他會有這個想法就希望說我們亞洲也必須要有一個軍事防衛的一個聯盟可是看起來這個是"},{"start":482.379,"end":505.485,"text":"不可行,我們是覺得種種的客觀的因素,比如說不管是在亞洲地方有主權的爭議或地緣條件等等,好像這個亞洲版北約我想要推行真的不太容易。那可是基於這個,我們畢竟還是需要,基本上我們以台灣來講的話,我們還是需要有一個類似亞洲的軍事防衛的聯盟。"},{"start":507.725,"end":537.058,"text":"局長你怎麼看,如果說我們要怎麼來運用這防衛合作的這個架構目前現有的?對,那就石破首相他確實有提出亞洲版北約的一個構想那也正如委員所提到的,因為這個構想還沒有一些細部的規劃所以自民黨內部也成立一個專責的小組希望針對日本對外的安保政策能夠再有一個比較深入跟全面的一個討論那就亞洲版北約後續的發展可能主要的重點還是在於日本怎麼樣來加強跟美國在這一方面強化合作的磋商"},{"start":537.958,"end":560.018,"text":"讓美日同盟加N,讓美日同盟可以變成一個加N的機制,有更多的國家來加入相關的安保或相關議題的一個合作那除了美日同盟加N以外,現有的Quad還有現有的AUKUS也都是多邊合作的機制那怎麼樣把這些小多邊的合作機制能夠串成一個區域在安保議題合作的網絡"},{"start":560.638,"end":560.658,"text":"韓國瑜議員"},{"start":576.496,"end":602.157,"text":"也許台灣並不是直接加入這些每日主導的小多邊的機制,不是直接參加,但是還是可以透過各種的管道來針對這些機制所關切的安全議題,海洋安全議題或是相關產業鏈安全的議題來交換意見。所以在目前為止亞洲還是沒有辦法像北約這樣子,就是有一個真正的一個軍事聯盟,因為我們可能也沒有辦法組成一個"},{"start":605.08,"end":630.299,"text":"北約還是有它的歷史背景在冷戰的對抗氣氛之下有一個非常緊密的軍事它是一個軍事同盟的合作那再加上文化還有價值理念的一個共同性那以及彼此之間沒有那麼多的領土爭議所以讓北約可以幾十年來有一個穩定的防衛機制來因應各種威脅挑戰那亞洲部分目前的條件可能還有一些需要在透過各國來討論來建構"},{"start":631.88,"end":632.341,"text":"北韓投入的兵力規模"},{"start":650.401,"end":654.904,"text":"北韓這次投入的部隊是它的風暴軍團,年紀都比較輕,二十幾歲。這個風暴軍團主要都是步兵的士兵,可能從事的是城鎮作戰跟敵後滲透的相關活動。所以他們的戰場上的角色大概是處於這個部分。"},{"start":674.497,"end":677.099,"text":"北韓是比較沒有那麼多經驗沒有那麼熟悉的所以對於北韓的戰場角色可能還要在後續來觀察"},{"start":695.669,"end":719.486,"text":"所以南韓他所擔心的可能會擴大到東亞,可能目前還看不到是不是?對,這個部分確實有這樣的關切,他的關切角度是,假如北韓跟俄國有這樣的一個同盟軍事合作的話,萬一未來北韓要在朝鮮半島新興的話,俄國會不會來支持北韓?那這是大概南韓的國安部門跟情報部門目前關注的主要的重點。"},{"start":721.808,"end":741.853,"text":"當然這都是,所以現在世界上非常的動亂,全球都非常的動亂,那台灣處在一個地緣政治上這麼重要的一個位置,所以我們還是要特別的注意,我們比較擔心的是聯動性,這聯動性像剛才我有提到的,像南韓很擔心就是說會擴及到"},{"start":742.493,"end":742.714,"text":"謝謝委員提醒"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":96,"blocks":[["羅委員美玲：（9時22分）謝謝主席。有請國安局蔡局長。"],["主席：請蔡局長。"],["蔡局長明彥：謝謝主席。羅委員早。"],["羅委員美玲：局長早。局長，在上禮拜美國、烏克蘭跟北約其實都先後證實了朝鮮已經派遣部隊到俄羅斯去參戰，當然研判北韓是為了要履行他跟俄羅斯剛剛簽訂的全面戰略夥伴關係條約，也就是一國如果因為入侵，進入戰爭的狀態，另外一個國家就必須要提供軍事協助，當然北韓也得到他想要的，比如糧食、武器等等。可是跟俄羅斯有簽署軍事互助協議的不單單只有北韓，包含像白俄羅斯、伊朗跟中國都有簽訂，在俄羅斯兵力嚴重短缺的狀況之下，之前俄羅斯的媒體也曾經點名要求這幾個國家對俄羅斯來提供更進一步的協助。我想請教局長，未來會不會這樣子逐漸就形成一個軍事聯盟的趨勢？像白俄羅斯、伊朗跟中國會不會也會類似像北韓這樣子來參與軍事活動？"],["蔡局長明彥：對，我想這次北韓參與俄烏戰場，主要原因有北韓的一些戰略的盤算，希望透過這樣的一個參戰來得到俄國更多方面的支持，包括經濟的援助以及火箭技術的提供。我可以了解委員的關切，就是擔心在北韓參戰之後，會不會有更多其他俄國的友盟來加入戰局，戰事會不斷地擴大，變成一種區域比較廣泛的戰事，或是升溫的一個跡象。不過跟委員說明的是，在現階段來講，因為在俄烏的戰場上，烏克蘭跟俄國都開始進入一種所謂的戰時經濟的狀態，希望能夠儘量地來支撐戰局，也在評估是不是在美國大選之後，會有一些新的國際因素的變化來影響整個俄烏戰局的後續發展。現階段看起來還沒有看到有其他俄國支持的國家、友好的國家要加入戰局，因為一旦加入戰局之後，第一個會面臨到的問題就是來自於歐美西方國家非常強力的經濟制裁，北韓是一個很特殊的案例，因為它長期以來就遭受到西方國家的經濟制裁，所以它在權衡得失之後，才會在這個時間點來加入俄烏的戰局。"],["羅委員美玲：我們國人所擔心的是，我們也很擔心中國參戰，因為這樣子其實可以取得實戰的經驗，我想國人應該也是非常擔心，當然我剛才看到國防部也好，或者是國安局也好，有提到其實中國對這個部分，基本上他是不想要去做評論，也希望能夠保持一個低調的態度，當然我也看過一些報導，就是中國可能也希望在這一局裡面能夠扮演一個類似和事佬的角色，提升他在國際上的地位。所以目前如果以局長的看法，我們所擔心中國會不會參戰，其實到目前為止，是沒有看到任何的跡象就對了？"],["蔡局長明彥：對，沒有這樣的跡象。"],["羅委員美玲：OK，好，瞭解。再來要提到的就是日本，日本前陣子眾議院改選，自民黨跟公明黨執政聯盟沒有辦法取得過半的席次，所以不管怎麼樣，就算是11月11號國會舉辦首相選舉，石破茂如果真的順利連任的話，日本還是會出現一些不同的走向和新的政局。我們比較擔心的是……當然我也看到國安局跟國防部的報告，日本友臺的態度，這個基調是不變的。"],["蔡局長明彥：是。"],["羅委員美玲：可是問題是，畢竟自民黨過去友臺的這個方向會不會因為朝小野大而面臨到不同的局面？雖然是友臺，但是臺日之間的關係會不會有一些微妙的變化？會不會有？"],["蔡局長明彥：就臺日關係的發展來講，剛剛委員也提到，我們在口頭報告的時候已經說明了，因為主要的政黨，包括自民黨，以及主要的在野黨，包括立憲民主黨，以及另外一個重要的在野黨，包括日本維新會，他們在選舉過程當中，對於臺日關係都有一些討論跟論述，基本的主軸都還是在臺日安全有緊密的連動性，在這樣的一個基調之下，也許日本的政局因為政黨聯合內閣的組合會有一些不同的、新的政黨加入這個團隊。"],["羅委員美玲：是。"],["蔡局長明彥：但是你去仔細地檢視各個政黨基本的立場還有基調，大概對於維持跟臺灣的關係都有一個非常長期的相關主張。"],["羅委員美玲：之前在他們國家安保戰略裡面，這是他們第一次定義臺日關係，指出臺灣是日本「極重要的友人」，對於中國的定義是，日本「前所未有的最大戰略挑戰」，「挑戰」是一個比較客氣的說法。當然，這是它前陣子才作出的定義，新政局的產生對前面所謂臺日之間的關係會不會有所改變？當然，我講的「改變」並不是說它友臺的這個態度改變，而是有些合作的步調會不會放緩？像過去我們覺得彼此之間的關係是非常close，這點會不會因為有些在野黨擔心中國的態度跟臺灣之間的關係而稍微疏離？本席想要提的是這個部分。"],["蔡局長明彥：基本上，去檢視日本政壇各個政黨的基本立場，剛剛有提到在對臺政策的部分是希望加強跟臺灣在各個領域的合作能進一步地深化，也重視到臺海安全可能對日本自身安全所產生的影響，所以對於臺海問題非常關注，這也是為什麼日本在很多，包括雙邊或多邊這種安全或高層會談當中都持續去表述對於臺海和穩的重視，這大概是第一部分要跟委員說明的。","這些日本政黨對中國的關係會不會影響臺日的關係，目前看起來倒不至於，因為在對中國的關係來看，日本是希望能夠穩定跟中國的關係，而不是去加強所謂戰略面或其他領域更深入的合作，他們是在做一種戰略的管理，所以我們可以預期，也許10天之後的APEC峰會會有中日元首的互動，我們所理解到的是，討論的議題大概都還是聚焦在他們自己雙邊的議題，包括日本公民在中國大陸的人身安全問題，以及日本相關水產進口的問題，所以我們看到的中日議題主要都還是在這種比較技術面或經貿面的討論，沒有涉及到他們更深入在安保或戰略面的合作。假如有那種情形，當然會影響到臺日關係，但是目前來看並沒有。"],["羅委員美玲：OK，瞭解。再來就是石破茂一直有提到一個構想，就是亞洲版北約。對於亞洲版北約，說實在的我們所看到的就是，不管是美國也好、印度也好，基本上他們是不支持的，美國甚至還說為時過早，印太還沒有準備好。甚至我們看到日本官員的態度也是非常保守，說是還須要中長期的規劃，應該先強化美日同盟。","當然，石破茂會提亞洲版北約就是他認為今日烏克蘭就是明日東亞，他會有這個想法，就是希望我們亞洲也必須要有一個軍事防衛的聯盟。可是看起來，這是不可行的，我們是覺得，衡諸種種客觀因素，譬如說不管是在主權，亞洲地方有主權的爭議，或是地緣條件等等，像這個亞洲版北約要推行，我在想真的是不太容易。可是基於這個……我們畢竟還是需要……基本上以我們臺灣來講，我們還是需要一個類似亞洲的軍事防衛聯盟，對此局長怎麼看？如果說……我們要怎麼運用目前現有的這個防衛合作架構？"],["蔡局長明彥：石破首長確實有提出亞洲版北約的構想，也正如委員所提到的，因為這個構想還沒有一些細部的規劃，所以自民黨內部也成立一個專責的小組，希望針對日本對外的安保政策能再有一個比較深入跟全面的討論。就亞洲版北約後續的發展，可能主要的重點還是在於日本怎麼加強跟美國在這方面強化合作的磋商。"],["羅委員美玲：就是美日同盟。"],["蔡局長明彥：讓美日同盟可以變成一個加N的機制，有更多國家加入相關的安保或相關議題的合作。除了美日同盟加N以外，現有的Quad還有AUKUS也都是多邊合作的機制，怎麼樣把這些小多邊的合作機制串成一個區域在安保議題上合作的網絡或許是未來可以思考或討論的方向。不過，整個過程當中，美日同盟還是……"],["羅委員美玲：那臺灣會成為其中的plus嗎？"],["蔡局長明彥：就……"],["羅委員美玲：像Quad，我們一直都在很低調地參與，像AUKUS這類的，我們有辦法變成他們的另外一個plus嗎？"],["蔡局長明彥：也許臺灣並不是直接加入這些美日主導的小多邊機制，但是還是可以透過各種管道針對這些機制所關切的安全議題、海洋安全議題，或是相關產業鏈的安全議題來交換意見。"],["羅委員美玲：所以到目前為止，亞洲還是沒有辦法像北約這樣，就是有一個真正的軍事聯盟，我們可能也沒有辦法組成一個部隊之類的。"],["蔡局長明彥：對。北約還是有它的歷史背景，在冷戰的對抗氣氛之下，它有一個非常緊密的軍事同盟的合作，再加上文化、價值理念的共同性，以及彼此之間沒有那邊多的領土爭議，讓北約可以幾十年來有一個穩定的防衛機制，以因應各種威脅挑戰。亞洲部分目前的條件可能還有一些須要再透過各國來討論、來建構合作條件的過程。"],["羅委員美玲：局長，我剛才忘了問一個問題，就是澤倫斯基有提到北韓的參戰是世界大戰第一步的開始，依您來看，你覺得會有這個趨勢嗎？"],["蔡局長明彥：我想目前北韓投入的兵力規模還是在初步的階段，這是第一個；第二個，它在戰場上的角色也必須再進一步討論，因為我們所知道的是，北韓這次投入的部隊是它的風暴軍團，年紀都比較輕，就是二十幾歲，這個風暴軍團主要是步兵的士兵，可能從事的是城鎮作戰跟敵後滲透的相關活動，所以他們在戰場上的角色大概是處於這個部分。不過，也因為語言的隔閡，讓北韓的士兵未來在俄烏戰場上到底能夠發揮多大的功能，這部分還要再繼續關注。尤其是俄烏戰爭現在有一些高科技的發展趨勢，包括無人機的運用，這一塊北韓是比較沒有那麼多經驗、沒有那麼熟悉的，所以北韓在戰場上的角色可能後續還要再觀察。"],["羅委員美玲：南韓擔心可能會擴大到東亞，目前可能還看不到，是不是？"],["蔡局長明彥：對，這個部分確實有這樣的關切，它的關切角度是，假如北韓跟俄國有這樣一個同盟的軍事合作，萬一未來北韓要在朝鮮半島興釁的話，俄國會不會支持北韓，這是南韓國安部門跟情報部門目前關注的主要重點。"],["羅委員美玲：OK。當然這都是……現在世界上非常動亂，全球都非常動亂。"],["蔡局長明彥：是。"],["羅委員美玲：臺灣處在一個地緣政治上這麼重要的位置，我們還是要特別注意，我們比較擔心的是連動性。"],["蔡局長明彥：是。"],["羅委員美玲：這個連動性就像剛才我所提到的，像南韓很擔心會擴及到東亞，東亞有事臺灣當然一樣會有事。"],["蔡局長明彥：是。"],["羅委員美玲：不是臺灣有事，然後全世界有事，而是烏克蘭有事，也許全世界都會有事，我們比較擔心的是擴散的這個，這個可能是大家要特別注意的部分。"],["蔡局長明彥：對，我們後續會密注相關地緣政治的發展，謝謝委員提醒。"],["羅委員美玲：OK，謝謝。"],["蔡局長明彥：謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝羅美玲委員，局長請回。","接下來陳永康、陳永康，陳永康委員不在。","接下來我們請林楚茵委員上臺質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":360,"meet_id":"委員會-11-2-35-10","speakers":["林憶君","羅美玲","林楚茵","王定宇","陳冠廷","沈伯洋","洪申翰","馬文君","徐巧芯","賴士葆","林岱樺","黃仁","陳永康","劉建國","羅智強","王鴻薇","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":309,"meetingDate":["2024-11-06"],"gazette_id":"1139301","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1139301_00006"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第2會期外交及國防委員會第10次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請國家安全局局長、國防部部長報告「北韓派兵加入俄烏戰爭、南北韓衝突及日本眾議院改\n選，對台灣在地緣戰略地位之影響」，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1139301_00005"}}}