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\"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"好\", \"start\": 639.164, \"end\": 639.344, \"score\": 0.88}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"秉\"}, {\"word\": \"瑞\", \"start\": 639.344, \"end\": 639.464, \"score\": 0.781}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 639.464, \"end\": 639.484, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"接\", \"start\": 639.484, \"end\": 639.504, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"著\", \"start\": 639.504, \"end\": 639.824, \"score\": 0.914}, {\"word\": \"請\"}, {\"word\": \"賴\"}, {\"word\": \"思\", \"start\": 639.824, \"end\": 639.985, \"score\": 0.721}, {\"word\": \"寶\"}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 639.985, \"end\": 640.005, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"質\"}, {\"word\": \"詢\"}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:05,157 --> 00:00:31,294\n吳偉銀早總裁早跟你請教幾個問題因為川普的當選美國總統引發了很多的觀點的改變其實剛剛提到張宗謀先生講到說幾年前講到全球化已死他其實是在我個人的觀點認為他是在談供應鏈重組的問題因為現在地緣政治的衝突像俄國\n\n2\n00:00:32,415 --> 00:00:52,009\n中共、北韓、伊朗這些邪惡的流氓國家的結合使得全球化必須要面臨調整啊不然的話如果他這樣耍流氓然後不遵守這個世界貿易的規範然後你還在無限制的全球化的話那是不是自己找自己的苦把這個\n\n3\n00:00:53,663 --> 00:01:14,965\n把人家坐牆然後來找自己很麻煩所以如果供應鏈的重組另外一個角度來講就是你要站在哪一隊的問題站隊問題那川普當選的時候就是很明顯川普現在用的內閣現在據爆派或是已經證實的人全部都是鷹派他最大的目的就是要對付中共嘛\n\n4\n00:01:15,854 --> 00:01:24,003\n就看得出來這些人對中共的過去的這些惡行惡狀絕對是深惡痛絕已經要給他銀頭痛擊其實所謂的關稅60%關稅60%就是不跟你做生意啦關稅60%當然要有競爭力\n\n5\n00:01:31,058 --> 00:01:58,334\n除非他就是席產地或是就所謂的繞道那台灣絕對要避免成為中國產品繞道的這個路徑否則為了要制裁這個流氓國家不照國際貿易的慣例來的話到時候連台灣都會被他拉下去最近台積電不就發生了這個問題嗎假造一個第三個沒有受到制裁的公司來台灣買晶片然後去給這個華為用\n\n6\n00:02:00,257 --> 00:02:24,309\n被美國的商務部通知台積電這也是引起非常大的風波所以台灣如何將來因為供應鏈重組那全世界的戰隊問題如何避免變成中國產品繞道或是利用這些所謂第三地貿易來躲避美國制裁的這樣的事情是必須要小心跟謹慎的\n\n7\n00:02:25,990 --> 00:02:44,748\n那至於你剛剛講到說那因為台灣的產品有非常多嘛對現在對外輸出的大眾是自通訊產品就所謂這些晶片晶圓這些東西這些東西因為是不可或缺的那台積電在尖端的最尖端的這個晶片上市佔率92%\n\n8\n00:02:46,209 --> 00:02:59,245\n那其實他的大客戶都是美國人啊MVDO啊蘋果啊高通啊他們都是委託台積電製造那台積電現在當然已經開始有投資美國亞內沙拉已經有機場但是將來他的生產\n\n9\n00:03:02,549 --> 00:03:18,094\n是不是能夠完全符合他有講說兩奈米以下的最高端的也是要在台灣生產所以如果是不可或缺的時候你如果加徵10到20%的關稅那就是買方負擔啊因為這是賣方市場嘛\n\n10\n00:03:19,574 --> 00:03:44,815\n那如果是賣方市場的時候變買方負擔反而變成美國他會去考慮這個東西我覺得美國當然在選舉的時候你只能講一些最整體的策略跟戰略你不可能可以講到這麼細的東西但是執行的時候他還是會根據一個一個不同的狀況來做但是畢竟台灣對美國的出口越來越多也不全然全都是直通訊產品\n\n11\n00:03:46,696 --> 00:04:13,132\n最近台灣對美國的粗糙的這個規模現在已經到了什麼樣的狀況呢?我們的預測就是說到目前我們如果說到今年的話我們順差可能500多億粗糙是500多億美金對美國其實粗糙金額這麼大本身就是公平交易公平貿易的一個問題你記不記得在早年的時候幾十年前\n\n12\n00:04:14,172 --> 00:04:30,278\n也是因為台灣的這些紡織品這些大量賣到美國去所以使得我們的順差非常的大那當時都有組織對美的採購團還要每一年到美國的這個農村或是其他的州去買他們的一些產品\n\n13\n00:04:31,559 --> 00:04:48,967\n事實上川普在幾年前在任的最後兩年他還要求美國要求中國要去美國採購啊那中國當時還答應了兩千億美金結果最後只有採購七百多看川普沒有做了啊就草草收場就跳票了嘛有人說\n\n14\n00:04:50,345 --> 00:05:08,657\n川普總統他是商人性格商人性格重視承諾重視信用因為沒有信就沒有辦法從事商業行為嘛所以你想想看如果我們台灣對美國的順差出鈔金額是500多億美金的時候你認為應該用什麼方法能夠來彌補來處理這一段呢\n\n15\n00:05:13,298 --> 00:05:28,290\n因為我們一直給人家每一年每一年這麼多的順差在舊公平貿易來講的話這也是一個缺憾我們在報告裡面也有講到就是說政府的一個採購那這個是第一個那當然現在就是說譬如說包括\n\n16\n00:05:28,971 --> 00:05:43,664\n台積電到美國去投資這個也是平衡兩邊的一個貿易施衡的一個方法所以投資到美國去投資除了台積電以外其他的可能也可以去投資\n\n17\n00:05:45,375 --> 00:06:11,076\n因為基本上呢我們也都知道就是說這種你認為台灣這些廠商去美國投資之後會減少我們這個貿易之間的這個順差嗎因為基本上他如果說在那邊製造也本來是在台灣這邊就不用從台灣去了對就不用到台灣去所以順差會減少但是問題是這畢竟是比較長期的那短期的我們每一年順差500多億美金因為川普是\n\n18\n00:06:12,017 --> 00:06:13,538\n我們對美國的順差也是就是說最近幾年就是慢慢增加的很大這是第一個\n\n19\n00:06:33,089 --> 00:06:36,132\n二、經常帳順差,佔GDP的比重也蠻高的在我們報告裡面也有講到13%、14%這個要避免被列為匯率操縱國的難題所以我們每年大概有兩次會跟美國磋商中央銀行其他部會有沒有我不曉得\n\n20\n00:06:59,713 --> 00:07:18,264\n不過呢我們在這個諮商的過程當中呢我們也會讓他了解到就是說對我們對美國的順差呢這個說實在的好像是他需要的那這個就是說他也會了解那我們的經濟我們的經常這樣子順差這個是一個結構性的一個問題\n\n21\n00:07:19,734 --> 00:07:47,172\n總裁我在這邊建議啦因為你在政府中間你有份量嘛開會的時候可以講講話我們應該要操大對美國的採購啦這也是一個平衡貿易的一個方法嘛另外一點譬如說我們最近當然是報宅的不知道有沒有要向美國採購武器這也是平衡貿易的一個方法嘛所以我覺得當然我不是只光指武器啦我們台灣如果一樣可以買東西盡量要跟美國買啦這個歐盟的\n\n22\n00:07:49,995 --> 00:08:03,870\n倫茲主席已經講了阿美國有乾淨的能源阿價格要比俄羅斯低阿我們應該要跟美國買天然氣阿他跟歐盟公開這樣講其實也是一種平衡貿易啦你知道嗎因為川普當選之後他非常強調這個全世界都知道阿\n\n23\n00:08:04,591 --> 00:08:19,002\n所以各國都在開始考慮說如果我們從美國多一些採購讓我們的順差可以降低讓美國政府可以覺得說我們台灣這一方面真的蠻努力的那這一方面的這個可能我們遇到的困難會比較少一點\n\n24\n00:08:20,623 --> 00:08:21,824\n第二個問題我要請教你\n\n25\n00:08:37,165 --> 00:09:04,743\n因為有學者說美國要對中國課正60%的報復關稅嘛那就有人在計算說那如果這樣啊因為要關稅這麼高那中國的產品要怎麼辦呢他只能夠貶值來因應比如說要貶值到8塊多甚至最重的時候要貶值到10塊多那這個方案當然現在大家都在談那因為川普是1月20號才上台嘛所以現在一個多月之間有一個預備的期間了\n\n26\n00:09:06,324 --> 00:09:32,440\n如果人民幣這麼巨幅的貶值那台灣應該要有因應喔這個是大事喔這個就匯率各種方面是大事喔那總裁你的看法怎麼樣沒有錯啦委員講的分析得很好就是說基本上我們從最近的一個最近的一個外匯市場可以發現到就是說人民幣的一個波動度呢就很大\n\n27\n00:09:33,460 --> 00:09:38,343\n人民幣的波動度很大的時候亞洲貨幣它的波動度會隨著也波動很大因為畢竟匯率它是一個相對性的不過我們的報告也有講到從9月到現在為止的話我們台灣的一個新台幣的匯率我們貶值的反而是比較少\n\n28\n00:09:58,235 --> 00:10:25,891\n我反而是比較少但意思就是說而且呢不只是說我們貶值比較少而且呢我們的波動度呢是相當穩定的對台灣是這樣啊但是人民幣他之前的波動度很可能就是因為他無毛印鈔印了那麼多錢幾兆幾兆這樣一直出來因為他的財政有遇到問題嘛所以他一直印錢那未來還再加上美國的加徵60%的關稅很多人都認為中共對於人民幣的控制是守不住的\n\n29\n00:10:26,471 --> 00:10:40,005\n那如果貶值的幅度這麼大我拜託央行、拜託金管會、拜託財政部都要對這個問題提早預作準備啦好那大家要想好因應的對策好大家加油好謝謝好謝謝秉瑞委員接著請賴思寶委員質詢\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n5157\t31294\t吳偉銀早總裁早跟你請教幾個問題因為川普的當選美國總統引發了很多的觀點的改變其實剛剛提到張宗謀先生講到說幾年前講到全球化已死他其實是在我個人的觀點認為他是在談供應鏈重組的問題因為現在地緣政治的衝突像俄國\n32415\t52009\t中共、北韓、伊朗這些邪惡的流氓國家的結合使得全球化必須要面臨調整啊不然的話如果他這樣耍流氓然後不遵守這個世界貿易的規範然後你還在無限制的全球化的話那是不是自己找自己的苦把這個\n53663\t74965\t把人家坐牆然後來找自己很麻煩所以如果供應鏈的重組另外一個角度來講就是你要站在哪一隊的問題站隊問題那川普當選的時候就是很明顯川普現在用的內閣現在據爆派或是已經證實的人全部都是鷹派他最大的目的就是要對付中共嘛\n75854\t84003\t就看得出來這些人對中共的過去的這些惡行惡狀絕對是深惡痛絕已經要給他銀頭痛擊其實所謂的關稅60%關稅60%就是不跟你做生意啦關稅60%當然要有競爭力\n91058\t118334\t除非他就是席產地或是就所謂的繞道那台灣絕對要避免成為中國產品繞道的這個路徑否則為了要制裁這個流氓國家不照國際貿易的慣例來的話到時候連台灣都會被他拉下去最近台積電不就發生了這個問題嗎假造一個第三個沒有受到制裁的公司來台灣買晶片然後去給這個華為用\n120257\t144309\t被美國的商務部通知台積電這也是引起非常大的風波所以台灣如何將來因為供應鏈重組那全世界的戰隊問題如何避免變成中國產品繞道或是利用這些所謂第三地貿易來躲避美國制裁的這樣的事情是必須要小心跟謹慎的\n145990\t164748\t那至於你剛剛講到說那因為台灣的產品有非常多嘛對現在對外輸出的大眾是自通訊產品就所謂這些晶片晶圓這些東西這些東西因為是不可或缺的那台積電在尖端的最尖端的這個晶片上市佔率92%\n166209\t179245\t那其實他的大客戶都是美國人啊MVDO啊蘋果啊高通啊他們都是委託台積電製造那台積電現在當然已經開始有投資美國亞內沙拉已經有機場但是將來他的生產\n182549\t198094\t是不是能夠完全符合他有講說兩奈米以下的最高端的也是要在台灣生產所以如果是不可或缺的時候你如果加徵10到20%的關稅那就是買方負擔啊因為這是賣方市場嘛\n199574\t224815\t那如果是賣方市場的時候變買方負擔反而變成美國他會去考慮這個東西我覺得美國當然在選舉的時候你只能講一些最整體的策略跟戰略你不可能可以講到這麼細的東西但是執行的時候他還是會根據一個一個不同的狀況來做但是畢竟台灣對美國的出口越來越多也不全然全都是直通訊產品\n226696\t253132\t最近台灣對美國的粗糙的這個規模現在已經到了什麼樣的狀況呢?我們的預測就是說到目前我們如果說到今年的話我們順差可能500多億粗糙是500多億美金對美國其實粗糙金額這麼大本身就是公平交易公平貿易的一個問題你記不記得在早年的時候幾十年前\n254172\t270278\t也是因為台灣的這些紡織品這些大量賣到美國去所以使得我們的順差非常的大那當時都有組織對美的採購團還要每一年到美國的這個農村或是其他的州去買他們的一些產品\n271559\t288967\t事實上川普在幾年前在任的最後兩年他還要求美國要求中國要去美國採購啊那中國當時還答應了兩千億美金結果最後只有採購七百多看川普沒有做了啊就草草收場就跳票了嘛有人說\n290345\t308657\t川普總統他是商人性格商人性格重視承諾重視信用因為沒有信就沒有辦法從事商業行為嘛所以你想想看如果我們台灣對美國的順差出鈔金額是500多億美金的時候你認為應該用什麼方法能夠來彌補來處理這一段呢\n313298\t328290\t因為我們一直給人家每一年每一年這麼多的順差在舊公平貿易來講的話這也是一個缺憾我們在報告裡面也有講到就是說政府的一個採購那這個是第一個那當然現在就是說譬如說包括\n328971\t343664\t台積電到美國去投資這個也是平衡兩邊的一個貿易施衡的一個方法所以投資到美國去投資除了台積電以外其他的可能也可以去投資\n345375\t371076\t因為基本上呢我們也都知道就是說這種你認為台灣這些廠商去美國投資之後會減少我們這個貿易之間的這個順差嗎因為基本上他如果說在那邊製造也本來是在台灣這邊就不用從台灣去了對就不用到台灣去所以順差會減少但是問題是這畢竟是比較長期的那短期的我們每一年順差500多億美金因為川普是\n372017\t373538\t我們對美國的順差也是就是說最近幾年就是慢慢增加的很大這是第一個\n393089\t396132\t二、經常帳順差,佔GDP的比重也蠻高的在我們報告裡面也有講到13%、14%這個要避免被列為匯率操縱國的難題所以我們每年大概有兩次會跟美國磋商中央銀行其他部會有沒有我不曉得\n419713\t438264\t不過呢我們在這個諮商的過程當中呢我們也會讓他了解到就是說對我們對美國的順差呢這個說實在的好像是他需要的那這個就是說他也會了解那我們的經濟我們的經常這樣子順差這個是一個結構性的一個問題\n439734\t467172\t總裁我在這邊建議啦因為你在政府中間你有份量嘛開會的時候可以講講話我們應該要操大對美國的採購啦這也是一個平衡貿易的一個方法嘛另外一點譬如說我們最近當然是報宅的不知道有沒有要向美國採購武器這也是平衡貿易的一個方法嘛所以我覺得當然我不是只光指武器啦我們台灣如果一樣可以買東西盡量要跟美國買啦這個歐盟的\n469995\t483870\t倫茲主席已經講了阿美國有乾淨的能源阿價格要比俄羅斯低阿我們應該要跟美國買天然氣阿他跟歐盟公開這樣講其實也是一種平衡貿易啦你知道嗎因為川普當選之後他非常強調這個全世界都知道阿\n484591\t499002\t所以各國都在開始考慮說如果我們從美國多一些採購讓我們的順差可以降低讓美國政府可以覺得說我們台灣這一方面真的蠻努力的那這一方面的這個可能我們遇到的困難會比較少一點\n500623\t501824\t第二個問題我要請教你\n517165\t544743\t因為有學者說美國要對中國課正60%的報復關稅嘛那就有人在計算說那如果這樣啊因為要關稅這麼高那中國的產品要怎麼辦呢他只能夠貶值來因應比如說要貶值到8塊多甚至最重的時候要貶值到10塊多那這個方案當然現在大家都在談那因為川普是1月20號才上台嘛所以現在一個多月之間有一個預備的期間了\n546324\t572440\t如果人民幣這麼巨幅的貶值那台灣應該要有因應喔這個是大事喔這個就匯率各種方面是大事喔那總裁你的看法怎麼樣沒有錯啦委員講的分析得很好就是說基本上我們從最近的一個最近的一個外匯市場可以發現到就是說人民幣的一個波動度呢就很大\n573460\t578343\t人民幣的波動度很大的時候亞洲貨幣它的波動度會隨著也波動很大因為畢竟匯率它是一個相對性的不過我們的報告也有講到從9月到現在為止的話我們台灣的一個新台幣的匯率我們貶值的反而是比較少\n598235\t625891\t我反而是比較少但意思就是說而且呢不只是說我們貶值比較少而且呢我們的波動度呢是相當穩定的對台灣是這樣啊但是人民幣他之前的波動度很可能就是因為他無毛印鈔印了那麼多錢幾兆幾兆這樣一直出來因為他的財政有遇到問題嘛所以他一直印錢那未來還再加上美國的加徵60%的關稅很多人都認為中共對於人民幣的控制是守不住的\n626471\t640005\t那如果貶值的幅度這麼大我拜託央行、拜託金管會、拜託財政部都要對這個問題提早預作準備啦好那大家要想好因應的對策好大家加油好謝謝好謝謝秉瑞委員接著請賴思寶委員質詢\n","txt":"吳偉銀早總裁早跟你請教幾個問題因為川普的當選美國總統引發了很多的觀點的改變其實剛剛提到張宗謀先生講到說幾年前講到全球化已死他其實是在我個人的觀點認為他是在談供應鏈重組的問題因為現在地緣政治的衝突像俄國\n中共、北韓、伊朗這些邪惡的流氓國家的結合使得全球化必須要面臨調整啊不然的話如果他這樣耍流氓然後不遵守這個世界貿易的規範然後你還在無限制的全球化的話那是不是自己找自己的苦把這個\n把人家坐牆然後來找自己很麻煩所以如果供應鏈的重組另外一個角度來講就是你要站在哪一隊的問題站隊問題那川普當選的時候就是很明顯川普現在用的內閣現在據爆派或是已經證實的人全部都是鷹派他最大的目的就是要對付中共嘛\n就看得出來這些人對中共的過去的這些惡行惡狀絕對是深惡痛絕已經要給他銀頭痛擊其實所謂的關稅60%關稅60%就是不跟你做生意啦關稅60%當然要有競爭力\n除非他就是席產地或是就所謂的繞道那台灣絕對要避免成為中國產品繞道的這個路徑否則為了要制裁這個流氓國家不照國際貿易的慣例來的話到時候連台灣都會被他拉下去最近台積電不就發生了這個問題嗎假造一個第三個沒有受到制裁的公司來台灣買晶片然後去給這個華為用\n被美國的商務部通知台積電這也是引起非常大的風波所以台灣如何將來因為供應鏈重組那全世界的戰隊問題如何避免變成中國產品繞道或是利用這些所謂第三地貿易來躲避美國制裁的這樣的事情是必須要小心跟謹慎的\n那至於你剛剛講到說那因為台灣的產品有非常多嘛對現在對外輸出的大眾是自通訊產品就所謂這些晶片晶圓這些東西這些東西因為是不可或缺的那台積電在尖端的最尖端的這個晶片上市佔率92%\n那其實他的大客戶都是美國人啊MVDO啊蘋果啊高通啊他們都是委託台積電製造那台積電現在當然已經開始有投資美國亞內沙拉已經有機場但是將來他的生產\n是不是能夠完全符合他有講說兩奈米以下的最高端的也是要在台灣生產所以如果是不可或缺的時候你如果加徵10到20%的關稅那就是買方負擔啊因為這是賣方市場嘛\n那如果是賣方市場的時候變買方負擔反而變成美國他會去考慮這個東西我覺得美國當然在選舉的時候你只能講一些最整體的策略跟戰略你不可能可以講到這麼細的東西但是執行的時候他還是會根據一個一個不同的狀況來做但是畢竟台灣對美國的出口越來越多也不全然全都是直通訊產品\n最近台灣對美國的粗糙的這個規模現在已經到了什麼樣的狀況呢?我們的預測就是說到目前我們如果說到今年的話我們順差可能500多億粗糙是500多億美金對美國其實粗糙金額這麼大本身就是公平交易公平貿易的一個問題你記不記得在早年的時候幾十年前\n也是因為台灣的這些紡織品這些大量賣到美國去所以使得我們的順差非常的大那當時都有組織對美的採購團還要每一年到美國的這個農村或是其他的州去買他們的一些產品\n事實上川普在幾年前在任的最後兩年他還要求美國要求中國要去美國採購啊那中國當時還答應了兩千億美金結果最後只有採購七百多看川普沒有做了啊就草草收場就跳票了嘛有人說\n川普總統他是商人性格商人性格重視承諾重視信用因為沒有信就沒有辦法從事商業行為嘛所以你想想看如果我們台灣對美國的順差出鈔金額是500多億美金的時候你認為應該用什麼方法能夠來彌補來處理這一段呢\n因為我們一直給人家每一年每一年這麼多的順差在舊公平貿易來講的話這也是一個缺憾我們在報告裡面也有講到就是說政府的一個採購那這個是第一個那當然現在就是說譬如說包括\n台積電到美國去投資這個也是平衡兩邊的一個貿易施衡的一個方法所以投資到美國去投資除了台積電以外其他的可能也可以去投資\n因為基本上呢我們也都知道就是說這種你認為台灣這些廠商去美國投資之後會減少我們這個貿易之間的這個順差嗎因為基本上他如果說在那邊製造也本來是在台灣這邊就不用從台灣去了對就不用到台灣去所以順差會減少但是問題是這畢竟是比較長期的那短期的我們每一年順差500多億美金因為川普是\n我們對美國的順差也是就是說最近幾年就是慢慢增加的很大這是第一個\n二、經常帳順差,佔GDP的比重也蠻高的在我們報告裡面也有講到13%、14%這個要避免被列為匯率操縱國的難題所以我們每年大概有兩次會跟美國磋商中央銀行其他部會有沒有我不曉得\n不過呢我們在這個諮商的過程當中呢我們也會讓他了解到就是說對我們對美國的順差呢這個說實在的好像是他需要的那這個就是說他也會了解那我們的經濟我們的經常這樣子順差這個是一個結構性的一個問題\n總裁我在這邊建議啦因為你在政府中間你有份量嘛開會的時候可以講講話我們應該要操大對美國的採購啦這也是一個平衡貿易的一個方法嘛另外一點譬如說我們最近當然是報宅的不知道有沒有要向美國採購武器這也是平衡貿易的一個方法嘛所以我覺得當然我不是只光指武器啦我們台灣如果一樣可以買東西盡量要跟美國買啦這個歐盟的\n倫茲主席已經講了阿美國有乾淨的能源阿價格要比俄羅斯低阿我們應該要跟美國買天然氣阿他跟歐盟公開這樣講其實也是一種平衡貿易啦你知道嗎因為川普當選之後他非常強調這個全世界都知道阿\n所以各國都在開始考慮說如果我們從美國多一些採購讓我們的順差可以降低讓美國政府可以覺得說我們台灣這一方面真的蠻努力的那這一方面的這個可能我們遇到的困難會比較少一點\n第二個問題我要請教你\n因為有學者說美國要對中國課正60%的報復關稅嘛那就有人在計算說那如果這樣啊因為要關稅這麼高那中國的產品要怎麼辦呢他只能夠貶值來因應比如說要貶值到8塊多甚至最重的時候要貶值到10塊多那這個方案當然現在大家都在談那因為川普是1月20號才上台嘛所以現在一個多月之間有一個預備的期間了\n如果人民幣這麼巨幅的貶值那台灣應該要有因應喔這個是大事喔這個就匯率各種方面是大事喔那總裁你的看法怎麼樣沒有錯啦委員講的分析得很好就是說基本上我們從最近的一個最近的一個外匯市場可以發現到就是說人民幣的一個波動度呢就很大\n人民幣的波動度很大的時候亞洲貨幣它的波動度會隨著也波動很大因為畢竟匯率它是一個相對性的不過我們的報告也有講到從9月到現在為止的話我們台灣的一個新台幣的匯率我們貶值的反而是比較少\n我反而是比較少但意思就是說而且呢不只是說我們貶值比較少而且呢我們的波動度呢是相當穩定的對台灣是這樣啊但是人民幣他之前的波動度很可能就是因為他無毛印鈔印了那麼多錢幾兆幾兆這樣一直出來因為他的財政有遇到問題嘛所以他一直印錢那未來還再加上美國的加徵60%的關稅很多人都認為中共對於人民幣的控制是守不住的\n那如果貶值的幅度這麼大我拜託央行、拜託金管會、拜託財政部都要對這個問題提早預作準備啦好那大家要想好因應的對策好大家加油好謝謝好謝謝秉瑞委員接著請賴思寶委員質詢\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:05.157 --> 00:31.294\n吳偉銀早總裁早跟你請教幾個問題因為川普的當選美國總統引發了很多的觀點的改變其實剛剛提到張宗謀先生講到說幾年前講到全球化已死他其實是在我個人的觀點認為他是在談供應鏈重組的問題因為現在地緣政治的衝突像俄國\n\n00:32.415 --> 00:52.009\n中共、北韓、伊朗這些邪惡的流氓國家的結合使得全球化必須要面臨調整啊不然的話如果他這樣耍流氓然後不遵守這個世界貿易的規範然後你還在無限制的全球化的話那是不是自己找自己的苦把這個\n\n00:53.663 --> 01:14.965\n把人家坐牆然後來找自己很麻煩所以如果供應鏈的重組另外一個角度來講就是你要站在哪一隊的問題站隊問題那川普當選的時候就是很明顯川普現在用的內閣現在據爆派或是已經證實的人全部都是鷹派他最大的目的就是要對付中共嘛\n\n01:15.854 --> 01:24.003\n就看得出來這些人對中共的過去的這些惡行惡狀絕對是深惡痛絕已經要給他銀頭痛擊其實所謂的關稅60%關稅60%就是不跟你做生意啦關稅60%當然要有競爭力\n\n01:31.058 --> 01:58.334\n除非他就是席產地或是就所謂的繞道那台灣絕對要避免成為中國產品繞道的這個路徑否則為了要制裁這個流氓國家不照國際貿易的慣例來的話到時候連台灣都會被他拉下去最近台積電不就發生了這個問題嗎假造一個第三個沒有受到制裁的公司來台灣買晶片然後去給這個華為用\n\n02:00.257 --> 02:24.309\n被美國的商務部通知台積電這也是引起非常大的風波所以台灣如何將來因為供應鏈重組那全世界的戰隊問題如何避免變成中國產品繞道或是利用這些所謂第三地貿易來躲避美國制裁的這樣的事情是必須要小心跟謹慎的\n\n02:25.990 --> 02:44.748\n那至於你剛剛講到說那因為台灣的產品有非常多嘛對現在對外輸出的大眾是自通訊產品就所謂這些晶片晶圓這些東西這些東西因為是不可或缺的那台積電在尖端的最尖端的這個晶片上市佔率92%\n\n02:46.209 --> 02:59.245\n那其實他的大客戶都是美國人啊MVDO啊蘋果啊高通啊他們都是委託台積電製造那台積電現在當然已經開始有投資美國亞內沙拉已經有機場但是將來他的生產\n\n03:02.549 --> 03:18.094\n是不是能夠完全符合他有講說兩奈米以下的最高端的也是要在台灣生產所以如果是不可或缺的時候你如果加徵10到20%的關稅那就是買方負擔啊因為這是賣方市場嘛\n\n03:19.574 --> 03:44.815\n那如果是賣方市場的時候變買方負擔反而變成美國他會去考慮這個東西我覺得美國當然在選舉的時候你只能講一些最整體的策略跟戰略你不可能可以講到這麼細的東西但是執行的時候他還是會根據一個一個不同的狀況來做但是畢竟台灣對美國的出口越來越多也不全然全都是直通訊產品\n\n03:46.696 --> 04:13.132\n最近台灣對美國的粗糙的這個規模現在已經到了什麼樣的狀況呢?我們的預測就是說到目前我們如果說到今年的話我們順差可能500多億粗糙是500多億美金對美國其實粗糙金額這麼大本身就是公平交易公平貿易的一個問題你記不記得在早年的時候幾十年前\n\n04:14.172 --> 04:30.278\n也是因為台灣的這些紡織品這些大量賣到美國去所以使得我們的順差非常的大那當時都有組織對美的採購團還要每一年到美國的這個農村或是其他的州去買他們的一些產品\n\n04:31.559 --> 04:48.967\n事實上川普在幾年前在任的最後兩年他還要求美國要求中國要去美國採購啊那中國當時還答應了兩千億美金結果最後只有採購七百多看川普沒有做了啊就草草收場就跳票了嘛有人說\n\n04:50.345 --> 05:08.657\n川普總統他是商人性格商人性格重視承諾重視信用因為沒有信就沒有辦法從事商業行為嘛所以你想想看如果我們台灣對美國的順差出鈔金額是500多億美金的時候你認為應該用什麼方法能夠來彌補來處理這一段呢\n\n05:13.298 --> 05:28.290\n因為我們一直給人家每一年每一年這麼多的順差在舊公平貿易來講的話這也是一個缺憾我們在報告裡面也有講到就是說政府的一個採購那這個是第一個那當然現在就是說譬如說包括\n\n05:28.971 --> 05:43.664\n台積電到美國去投資這個也是平衡兩邊的一個貿易施衡的一個方法所以投資到美國去投資除了台積電以外其他的可能也可以去投資\n\n05:45.375 --> 06:11.076\n因為基本上呢我們也都知道就是說這種你認為台灣這些廠商去美國投資之後會減少我們這個貿易之間的這個順差嗎因為基本上他如果說在那邊製造也本來是在台灣這邊就不用從台灣去了對就不用到台灣去所以順差會減少但是問題是這畢竟是比較長期的那短期的我們每一年順差500多億美金因為川普是\n\n06:12.017 --> 06:13.538\n我們對美國的順差也是就是說最近幾年就是慢慢增加的很大這是第一個\n\n06:33.089 --> 06:36.132\n二、經常帳順差,佔GDP的比重也蠻高的在我們報告裡面也有講到13%、14%這個要避免被列為匯率操縱國的難題所以我們每年大概有兩次會跟美國磋商中央銀行其他部會有沒有我不曉得\n\n06:59.713 --> 07:18.264\n不過呢我們在這個諮商的過程當中呢我們也會讓他了解到就是說對我們對美國的順差呢這個說實在的好像是他需要的那這個就是說他也會了解那我們的經濟我們的經常這樣子順差這個是一個結構性的一個問題\n\n07:19.734 --> 07:47.172\n總裁我在這邊建議啦因為你在政府中間你有份量嘛開會的時候可以講講話我們應該要操大對美國的採購啦這也是一個平衡貿易的一個方法嘛另外一點譬如說我們最近當然是報宅的不知道有沒有要向美國採購武器這也是平衡貿易的一個方法嘛所以我覺得當然我不是只光指武器啦我們台灣如果一樣可以買東西盡量要跟美國買啦這個歐盟的\n\n07:49.995 --> 08:03.870\n倫茲主席已經講了阿美國有乾淨的能源阿價格要比俄羅斯低阿我們應該要跟美國買天然氣阿他跟歐盟公開這樣講其實也是一種平衡貿易啦你知道嗎因為川普當選之後他非常強調這個全世界都知道阿\n\n08:04.591 --> 08:19.002\n所以各國都在開始考慮說如果我們從美國多一些採購讓我們的順差可以降低讓美國政府可以覺得說我們台灣這一方面真的蠻努力的那這一方面的這個可能我們遇到的困難會比較少一點\n\n08:20.623 --> 08:21.824\n第二個問題我要請教你\n\n08:37.165 --> 09:04.743\n因為有學者說美國要對中國課正60%的報復關稅嘛那就有人在計算說那如果這樣啊因為要關稅這麼高那中國的產品要怎麼辦呢他只能夠貶值來因應比如說要貶值到8塊多甚至最重的時候要貶值到10塊多那這個方案當然現在大家都在談那因為川普是1月20號才上台嘛所以現在一個多月之間有一個預備的期間了\n\n09:06.324 --> 09:32.440\n如果人民幣這麼巨幅的貶值那台灣應該要有因應喔這個是大事喔這個就匯率各種方面是大事喔那總裁你的看法怎麼樣沒有錯啦委員講的分析得很好就是說基本上我們從最近的一個最近的一個外匯市場可以發現到就是說人民幣的一個波動度呢就很大\n\n09:33.460 --> 09:38.343\n人民幣的波動度很大的時候亞洲貨幣它的波動度會隨著也波動很大因為畢竟匯率它是一個相對性的不過我們的報告也有講到從9月到現在為止的話我們台灣的一個新台幣的匯率我們貶值的反而是比較少\n\n09:58.235 --> 10:25.891\n我反而是比較少但意思就是說而且呢不只是說我們貶值比較少而且呢我們的波動度呢是相當穩定的對台灣是這樣啊但是人民幣他之前的波動度很可能就是因為他無毛印鈔印了那麼多錢幾兆幾兆這樣一直出來因為他的財政有遇到問題嘛所以他一直印錢那未來還再加上美國的加徵60%的關稅很多人都認為中共對於人民幣的控制是守不住的\n\n10:26.471 --> 10:40.005\n那如果貶值的幅度這麼大我拜託央行、拜託金管會、拜託財政部都要對這個問題提早預作準備啦好那大家要想好因應的對策好大家加油好謝謝好謝謝秉瑞委員接著請賴思寶委員質詢\n\n","segments":[{"start":5.157,"end":31.294,"text":"吳偉銀早總裁早跟你請教幾個問題因為川普的當選美國總統引發了很多的觀點的改變其實剛剛提到張宗謀先生講到說幾年前講到全球化已死他其實是在我個人的觀點認為他是在談供應鏈重組的問題因為現在地緣政治的衝突像俄國"},{"start":32.415,"end":52.009,"text":"中共、北韓、伊朗這些邪惡的流氓國家的結合使得全球化必須要面臨調整啊不然的話如果他這樣耍流氓然後不遵守這個世界貿易的規範然後你還在無限制的全球化的話那是不是自己找自己的苦把這個"},{"start":53.663,"end":74.965,"text":"把人家坐牆然後來找自己很麻煩所以如果供應鏈的重組另外一個角度來講就是你要站在哪一隊的問題站隊問題那川普當選的時候就是很明顯川普現在用的內閣現在據爆派或是已經證實的人全部都是鷹派他最大的目的就是要對付中共嘛"},{"start":75.854,"end":84.003,"text":"就看得出來這些人對中共的過去的這些惡行惡狀絕對是深惡痛絕已經要給他銀頭痛擊其實所謂的關稅60%關稅60%就是不跟你做生意啦關稅60%當然要有競爭力"},{"start":91.058,"end":118.334,"text":"除非他就是席產地或是就所謂的繞道那台灣絕對要避免成為中國產品繞道的這個路徑否則為了要制裁這個流氓國家不照國際貿易的慣例來的話到時候連台灣都會被他拉下去最近台積電不就發生了這個問題嗎假造一個第三個沒有受到制裁的公司來台灣買晶片然後去給這個華為用"},{"start":120.257,"end":144.309,"text":"被美國的商務部通知台積電這也是引起非常大的風波所以台灣如何將來因為供應鏈重組那全世界的戰隊問題如何避免變成中國產品繞道或是利用這些所謂第三地貿易來躲避美國制裁的這樣的事情是必須要小心跟謹慎的"},{"start":145.99,"end":164.748,"text":"那至於你剛剛講到說那因為台灣的產品有非常多嘛對現在對外輸出的大眾是自通訊產品就所謂這些晶片晶圓這些東西這些東西因為是不可或缺的那台積電在尖端的最尖端的這個晶片上市佔率92%"},{"start":166.209,"end":179.245,"text":"那其實他的大客戶都是美國人啊MVDO啊蘋果啊高通啊他們都是委託台積電製造那台積電現在當然已經開始有投資美國亞內沙拉已經有機場但是將來他的生產"},{"start":182.549,"end":198.094,"text":"是不是能夠完全符合他有講說兩奈米以下的最高端的也是要在台灣生產所以如果是不可或缺的時候你如果加徵10到20%的關稅那就是買方負擔啊因為這是賣方市場嘛"},{"start":199.574,"end":224.815,"text":"那如果是賣方市場的時候變買方負擔反而變成美國他會去考慮這個東西我覺得美國當然在選舉的時候你只能講一些最整體的策略跟戰略你不可能可以講到這麼細的東西但是執行的時候他還是會根據一個一個不同的狀況來做但是畢竟台灣對美國的出口越來越多也不全然全都是直通訊產品"},{"start":226.696,"end":253.132,"text":"最近台灣對美國的粗糙的這個規模現在已經到了什麼樣的狀況呢?我們的預測就是說到目前我們如果說到今年的話我們順差可能500多億粗糙是500多億美金對美國其實粗糙金額這麼大本身就是公平交易公平貿易的一個問題你記不記得在早年的時候幾十年前"},{"start":254.172,"end":270.278,"text":"也是因為台灣的這些紡織品這些大量賣到美國去所以使得我們的順差非常的大那當時都有組織對美的採購團還要每一年到美國的這個農村或是其他的州去買他們的一些產品"},{"start":271.559,"end":288.967,"text":"事實上川普在幾年前在任的最後兩年他還要求美國要求中國要去美國採購啊那中國當時還答應了兩千億美金結果最後只有採購七百多看川普沒有做了啊就草草收場就跳票了嘛有人說"},{"start":290.345,"end":308.657,"text":"川普總統他是商人性格商人性格重視承諾重視信用因為沒有信就沒有辦法從事商業行為嘛所以你想想看如果我們台灣對美國的順差出鈔金額是500多億美金的時候你認為應該用什麼方法能夠來彌補來處理這一段呢"},{"start":313.298,"end":328.29,"text":"因為我們一直給人家每一年每一年這麼多的順差在舊公平貿易來講的話這也是一個缺憾我們在報告裡面也有講到就是說政府的一個採購那這個是第一個那當然現在就是說譬如說包括"},{"start":328.971,"end":343.664,"text":"台積電到美國去投資這個也是平衡兩邊的一個貿易施衡的一個方法所以投資到美國去投資除了台積電以外其他的可能也可以去投資"},{"start":345.375,"end":371.076,"text":"因為基本上呢我們也都知道就是說這種你認為台灣這些廠商去美國投資之後會減少我們這個貿易之間的這個順差嗎因為基本上他如果說在那邊製造也本來是在台灣這邊就不用從台灣去了對就不用到台灣去所以順差會減少但是問題是這畢竟是比較長期的那短期的我們每一年順差500多億美金因為川普是"},{"start":372.017,"end":373.538,"text":"我們對美國的順差也是就是說最近幾年就是慢慢增加的很大這是第一個"},{"start":393.089,"end":396.132,"text":"二、經常帳順差,佔GDP的比重也蠻高的在我們報告裡面也有講到13%、14%這個要避免被列為匯率操縱國的難題所以我們每年大概有兩次會跟美國磋商中央銀行其他部會有沒有我不曉得"},{"start":419.713,"end":438.264,"text":"不過呢我們在這個諮商的過程當中呢我們也會讓他了解到就是說對我們對美國的順差呢這個說實在的好像是他需要的那這個就是說他也會了解那我們的經濟我們的經常這樣子順差這個是一個結構性的一個問題"},{"start":439.734,"end":467.172,"text":"總裁我在這邊建議啦因為你在政府中間你有份量嘛開會的時候可以講講話我們應該要操大對美國的採購啦這也是一個平衡貿易的一個方法嘛另外一點譬如說我們最近當然是報宅的不知道有沒有要向美國採購武器這也是平衡貿易的一個方法嘛所以我覺得當然我不是只光指武器啦我們台灣如果一樣可以買東西盡量要跟美國買啦這個歐盟的"},{"start":469.995,"end":483.87,"text":"倫茲主席已經講了阿美國有乾淨的能源阿價格要比俄羅斯低阿我們應該要跟美國買天然氣阿他跟歐盟公開這樣講其實也是一種平衡貿易啦你知道嗎因為川普當選之後他非常強調這個全世界都知道阿"},{"start":484.591,"end":499.002,"text":"所以各國都在開始考慮說如果我們從美國多一些採購讓我們的順差可以降低讓美國政府可以覺得說我們台灣這一方面真的蠻努力的那這一方面的這個可能我們遇到的困難會比較少一點"},{"start":500.623,"end":501.824,"text":"第二個問題我要請教你"},{"start":517.165,"end":544.743,"text":"因為有學者說美國要對中國課正60%的報復關稅嘛那就有人在計算說那如果這樣啊因為要關稅這麼高那中國的產品要怎麼辦呢他只能夠貶值來因應比如說要貶值到8塊多甚至最重的時候要貶值到10塊多那這個方案當然現在大家都在談那因為川普是1月20號才上台嘛所以現在一個多月之間有一個預備的期間了"},{"start":546.324,"end":572.44,"text":"如果人民幣這麼巨幅的貶值那台灣應該要有因應喔這個是大事喔這個就匯率各種方面是大事喔那總裁你的看法怎麼樣沒有錯啦委員講的分析得很好就是說基本上我們從最近的一個最近的一個外匯市場可以發現到就是說人民幣的一個波動度呢就很大"},{"start":573.46,"end":578.343,"text":"人民幣的波動度很大的時候亞洲貨幣它的波動度會隨著也波動很大因為畢竟匯率它是一個相對性的不過我們的報告也有講到從9月到現在為止的話我們台灣的一個新台幣的匯率我們貶值的反而是比較少"},{"start":598.235,"end":625.891,"text":"我反而是比較少但意思就是說而且呢不只是說我們貶值比較少而且呢我們的波動度呢是相當穩定的對台灣是這樣啊但是人民幣他之前的波動度很可能就是因為他無毛印鈔印了那麼多錢幾兆幾兆這樣一直出來因為他的財政有遇到問題嘛所以他一直印錢那未來還再加上美國的加徵60%的關稅很多人都認為中共對於人民幣的控制是守不住的"},{"start":626.471,"end":640.005,"text":"那如果貶值的幅度這麼大我拜託央行、拜託金管會、拜託財政部都要對這個問題提早預作準備啦好那大家要想好因應的對策好大家加油好謝謝好謝謝秉瑞委員接著請賴思寶委員質詢"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":315,"blocks":[["吳委員秉叡：（9時36分）主席，麻煩請央行楊總裁。"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：吳委員早。"],["吳委員秉叡：總裁早，跟你請教幾個問題。川普當選美國總統引發了很多觀點的改變，其實剛剛提到張忠謀先生幾年前有講到全球化已死，我個人的觀點認為他是在談供應鏈重組的問題。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：因為現在地緣政治的衝突，像俄國、中共、北韓、伊朗這些邪惡流氓國家的結合，使得全球化必須要面臨調整，不然的話，如果它這樣耍流氓，不遵守世界貿易的規範，我們還要無限制的全球化的話，是不是自己找自己的苦，把人家做強，找自己的麻煩？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：從另外一個角度來講，供應鏈的重組是你要站在哪一隊的問題、站隊問題。川普當選之後就很明顯，川普用的內閣據報派或是已經證實的人選全部都是鷹派，他最大的目的就是要對付中共，看得出來這些人對中共過去的惡行惡狀絕對是深惡痛絕，一定要予以迎頭痛擊。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：其實所謂的關稅60%，就是不跟對方做生意，關稅60%，對方哪有競爭力？除非它洗產地或是繞道，所以臺灣絕對要避免成為中國產品繞道的路徑，否則為了要制裁這些流氓國家，不照國際貿易的慣例來的話，到時候連臺灣都會被它拉下去，最近台積電不就發生了這個問題嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：假造第三方沒有受到制裁的公司來臺灣買晶片去給華為用，結果被美國的商務部通知台積電，這也引起非常大的風波。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以臺灣將來因為供應鏈重組、全世界的站隊問題，如何避免變成中國產品繞道或是利用所謂第三地貿易來躲避美國制裁，對這樣的事情必須要小心跟謹慎。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：至於你剛剛講到因為臺灣的產品非常多，現在對外輸出的大宗是資通訊產品，就是晶片、晶圓這些東西，這些東西因為是不可或缺的，台積電在最尖端晶片的市占率達到92%，其實它的大客戶都是美國人，像NVIDIA、蘋果、高通都是委託台積電製造，台積電當然現在已經開始有投資美國亞利桑那幾個廠，但是將來它的生產是不是能夠完全符合……它也有講2奈米以下最高端的部分也是要在臺灣生產。所以如果是不可或缺的時候，加徵10%到20%的關稅就是買方負擔，因為這是賣方市場。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：如果是賣方市場的時候，由買方負擔，反而變成美國會去考慮這個東西。當然，在選舉的時候常常講一些最整體的策略跟戰略，不可能講到這麼細的東西，但是執行的時候，它還是會根據一個、一個不同的狀況來做，但是畢竟臺灣對美國的出口越來越多，也不全然都是資通訊產品。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：最近臺灣對美國出超的規模現在已經到了什麼樣的狀況呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們的預測是，如果到今年的話，我們的順差可能是五百多億。"],["吳委員秉叡：出超是五百多億美金，對美國。"],["楊總裁金龍：對美國。"],["吳委員秉叡：其實出超金額這麼大，本身就是公平貿易的問題。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：你記不記得在早年的時候、幾十年前，也是因為臺灣的紡織品等等大量賣到美國去，使得我們的順差非常地大。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["吳委員秉叡：當時都有組織對美的採購團。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：還要每一年到美國的農村或是其他的州去買他們的產品，事實上川普幾年前在任的最後兩年也要求中國要去美國採購。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：中國當時還答應了2,000億美金，結果最後只有採購七百多億，看川普沒有做了，就草草收場、跳票了。有人說川普總統是商人性格，商人性格重視承諾、重視信用，因為沒有信用就沒有辦法從事商業行為。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以你想想看，如果我們臺灣對美國的順差、出超金額是五百多億美金的時候，你認為應該要用什麼方法能夠彌補、處理這一段？因為我們一直每一年、每一年有這麼多的順差，就公平貿易來講，這也是一個缺憾。"],["楊總裁金龍：我們在報告裡面也有講到政府的採購，這是第一個。當然，現在譬如包括台積電到美國去投資，這個也是平衡兩邊貿易失衡的方法，所以到美國去投資除了台積電以外，其他的可能也可以去投資，因為基本上我們也都知道，這種資通……"],["吳委員秉叡：你認為臺灣這些廠商去美國投資之後會減少貿易之間的順差嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：基本上它如果在那邊製造，本來是在臺灣這邊製造……"],["吳委員秉叡：就不用從臺灣去了？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，就不用從臺灣去了。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以順差會減少？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：問題是這畢竟是比較長期的，短期我們每一年順差五百多億美金，因為川普是非常強調美國優先，他第一個要求就是要公平貿易。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：在公平貿易的狀況之下，像我們目前順差這麼高，這的確是一個必須要處理的問題。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。事實上，我也跟委員報告，我們對美國的順差也是最近幾年慢慢增加得很大，這是第一個。第二個，我們的經常帳順差占GDP的比重也滿高的，在我們的報告裡面也有講到13%、14%……"],["吳委員秉叡：這個是要避免被列為匯率操縱國的難題喔。"],["楊總裁金龍：所以我們中央銀行每年大概有兩次會跟美國磋商，其他的部會有沒有，我不曉得，不過我們在諮商的過程當中也會讓它瞭解，我們對美國的順差說實在的好像是它需要的，它也會瞭解。我們的經濟、我們的經常帳順差是結構性的問題。"],["吳委員秉叡：總裁，我在這邊建議，因為你在政府中間有份量嘛，開會的時候可以講講話，我們應該要擴大對美國的採購。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：這也是一個平衡貿易的方法。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：另外一點，譬如最近報載，不知道有沒有，指稱我們要向美國採購武器，這也是平衡貿易的一個方法。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：當然，我不是光指武器，我們臺灣如果一樣可以買東西，儘量要跟美國買。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：歐盟的輪值主席已經講了，美國有乾淨的能源，價格還比俄羅斯低，他們應該要跟美國買天然氣，他跟歐盟公開這樣講，其實也是一種平衡貿易，你知道嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：因為川普當選之後非常強調這個，全世界都知道，所以各國都在開始考慮，如果我們從美國多一些採購，讓順差可以降低，讓美國政府覺得臺灣在這方面真的滿努力的，這方面我們遇到的困難可能會比較少一點。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，對，當然，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以我建議你在中央部會開會的時候，也可以適時建議如果一樣的東西，也沒有比較差，我們應該多向美國採購，不要讓貿易的順差對美國這麼高。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：第二個問題，我想請教你，有學者說，美國要對中國課徵60%的報復性關稅，有人計算如果關稅這麼高，中國的產品要怎麼辦呢？它只能夠貶值來因應，有人說要貶值到八塊多，甚至最重的時候要貶值到十塊多，這個方案現在大家都在談。因為川普1月20日才上臺，所以現在還有一個多月的預備期間，如果人民幣這麼巨幅的貶值，臺灣應該要有因應，這個是大事，關於匯率各種方面是大事，總裁，你的看法怎麼樣？"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有錯，委員講得、分析得很好，基本上，我們從最近的外匯市場也可以發現人民幣的波動度很大，當人民幣的波動度很大的時候，亞洲貨幣的波動度也會隨之波動很大，畢竟匯率互相的，有相對性的。不過我們的報告也有講到，從9月到現在為止，我們臺灣的新臺幣匯率貶值反而是比較少，而且不只是貶值比較少，我們的波動度是相當穩定的。"],["吳委員秉叡：臺灣是這樣，但是人民幣之前的波動度很有可能就是因為它無錨印鈔，印了那麼多錢，幾兆、幾兆這樣一直印出來，因為它的財政遇到問題，所以它一直印錢。未來再加上美國加徵60%的關稅，因此很多人都認為中共對於人民幣的控制是守不住的，如果貶值的幅度這麼大，我拜託央行、拜託金管會、拜託財政部都要對這個問題提早預作準備，大家要想好因應的對策，大家加油！謝謝。"],["楊總裁金龍：好，謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝吳秉叡委員。","接著請賴士葆委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":256,"meet_id":"委員會-11-2-20-8","speakers":["賴惠員","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","李彥秀","李坤城","王鴻薇","羅明才","顏寬恒","黃珊珊","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","陳玉珍","黃國昌","洪孟楷","羅廷瑋","楊瓊瓔","麥玉珍","葉元之","王世堅","何欣純","邱志偉"],"page_start":173,"meetingDate":["2024-11-14"],"gazette_id":"11310002","agenda_lcidc_ids":["11310002_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第2會期財政委員會第8次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"一、邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍、財政部莊部長翠雲、金融監督管理委員會彭主任委員金隆就「美\n國新任總統的貿易政策對台灣經濟與金融穩定之可能影響與對策」進行專題報告，並備質詢；\n二、審查中華民國114年度中央政府總預算案：行政院歲入預算有關中央銀行股息紅利繳庫部分\n（僅詢答）；三、審查中華民國114年度中央政府總預算案附屬單位預算營業部分關於中央銀行\n（含中央造幣廠、中央印製廠）（僅詢答）","agenda_id":"11310002_00003"}}}