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\"end\": 228.799, \"score\": 0.888}, {\"word\": \"高\", \"start\": 228.799, \"end\": 229.2, \"score\": 0.874}, {\"word\": \"達\"}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 229.2, \"end\": 229.32, \"score\": 0.897}, {\"word\": \"成\", \"start\": 229.32, \"end\": 229.34, \"score\": 0.039}]}, {\"start\": 230.16, \"end\": 237.563, \"text\": \"整個國家的腳褲比例超過一成沒有沒有超過一成沒有待會讓你澄清待會讓你澄清第二個呢是國營事業裡頭的大概八到九成我先問第一個問題是說如果是這樣子的話過往我們央行資產在委外操作的部分大概140到150億這個比重大概2.7%不過簡單的講這個部分呢在委外的部分達標只有三年啦有兩年比自鈔還好而已啦也就是說基本上都輸給通膨啦\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"整\", \"start\": 230.16, \"end\": 230.6, \"score\": 0.806}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"家\", \"start\": 230.6, \"end\": 230.96, \"score\": 0.94}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 230.96, \"end\": 231.36, \"score\": 0.613}, {\"word\": \"腳\"}, {\"word\": \"褲\"}, {\"word\": \"比\", \"start\": 231.36, \"end\": 231.44, \"score\": 0.939}, {\"word\": \"例\", \"start\": 231.44, \"end\": 231.561, \"score\": 0.671}, {\"word\": \"超\", \"start\": 231.561, \"end\": 231.701, 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\"end\": 235.842, \"score\": 0.761}, {\"word\": \"分\", \"start\": 235.842, \"end\": 236.002, \"score\": 0.698}, {\"word\": \"達\"}, {\"word\": \"標\"}, {\"word\": \"只\", \"start\": 236.002, \"end\": 236.022, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 236.022, \"end\": 236.202, \"score\": 0.744}, {\"word\": \"三\", \"start\": 236.202, \"end\": 236.362, \"score\": 0.861}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 236.362, \"end\": 236.462, \"score\": 0.626}, {\"word\": \"啦\", \"start\": 236.462, \"end\": 236.582, \"score\": 0.666}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 236.582, \"end\": 236.602, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"兩\"}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 236.602, \"end\": 236.682, \"score\": 0.749}, {\"word\": \"比\", \"start\": 236.682, \"end\": 236.722, \"score\": 0.031}, {\"word\": \"自\", \"start\": 236.722, \"end\": 236.742, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"鈔\"}, {\"word\": \"還\"}, {\"word\": \"好\", \"start\": 236.742, \"end\": 236.822, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"而\", \"start\": 236.822, \"end\": 236.842, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"已\", \"start\": 236.842, \"end\": 236.862, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"啦\", \"start\": 236.862, \"end\": 236.962, \"score\": 0.627}, {\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 236.962, \"end\": 237.002, \"score\": 0.463}, {\"word\": \"就\", \"start\": 237.002, \"end\": 237.143, \"score\": 0.854}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 237.143, \"end\": 237.323, \"score\": 0.688}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"基\", \"start\": 237.323, \"end\": 237.403, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"本\", \"start\": 237.403, \"end\": 237.423, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 237.423, \"end\": 237.443, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"都\", \"start\": 237.443, \"end\": 237.463, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"輸\"}, {\"word\": \"給\"}, {\"word\": \"通\", \"start\": 237.463, \"end\": 237.543, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"膨\"}, {\"word\": \"啦\", \"start\": 237.543, \"end\": 237.563, \"score\": 0.0}]}, {\"start\": 259.17, \"end\": 279.314, \"text\": 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\"end\": 787.758, \"score\": 0.819}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"完\", \"start\": 787.758, \"end\": 787.939, \"score\": 0.993}, {\"word\": \"整\", \"start\": 787.939, \"end\": 788.099, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 788.099, \"end\": 788.819, \"score\": 0.971}, {\"word\": \"報\"}, {\"word\": \"告\", \"start\": 788.819, \"end\": 788.96, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"跟\", \"start\": 788.96, \"end\": 789.08, \"score\": 0.94}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"明\", \"start\": 789.08, \"end\": 789.56, \"score\": 0.924}, {\"word\": \"好\", \"start\": 789.56, \"end\": 790.701, \"score\": 0.905}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 790.701, \"end\": 792.063, \"score\": 0.972}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"好\", \"start\": 792.063, \"end\": 792.543, \"score\": 0.916}, {\"word\": \",\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"郭\", \"start\": 792.543, \"end\": 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00:00:01,269\n好,請楊總裁,謝謝。郭委員長楊總裁,你剛剛講說費特主席他不預測、不猜測不曉得川普的哪些政策什麼時候執行可是今天我們財委會就是要談說他的新任的總統的貿易政策對台灣經濟、金融穩定的可能的影響與對策\n\n2\n00:00:27,295 --> 00:00:28,716\n影響與對策就是要預測啊可是總裁您大部分都是一些描述性的欸你的預測其實只有在國內的部分的CPI還有包括GDP的成長率多少都是一樣的\n\n3\n00:00:46,203 --> 00:01:11,513\n你最清楚的預測就是這一個對美國的預測到底是什麼不是不是不是我的意思就是說你看看齁我們的報告裡面也有談到齁就是說你看RMF就是國際貨幣基金然後呢PIE美國華府的智庫他們也有做預測是我說我們啊我們的預測是什麼就譬如講我就舉一個最簡單的例子嘛好你說你說你說你預測來來來我聽你的預測來來來你說你說你說啦\n\n4\n00:01:15,695 --> 00:01:16,096\n美國國債目前為止換算成台幣的話超過一千兆\n\n5\n00:01:31,418 --> 00:01:38,944\n美國他們自己本身喔單利息的部分都要償還都要佔GDP的3.4%喔在這種情況底下你認為美元是會走強還是走貶這跟我們的匯率息息相關啊我總是希望看到你的預測嘛\n\n6\n00:01:50,137 --> 00:02:03,121\n我把我的報告跟各位來看一下事實上你看看我們的第12頁我們第12頁就是說在那個時候就是說在選舉之前那時候就開始盛行9月底的時候就開始盛行說川普的交易那個時候美元就開始在搶了美元就是開始在搶了你看看\n\n7\n00:02:18,526 --> 00:02:35,597\n九月就預測川普會當選喔欸那個時候是預測川普會當選喔九月中間是有說可能是民主黨會當選啊沒有沒有沒有我跟委員報告事實上呢九月底之後呢一般來講市場都會覺得是川普會贏\n\n8\n00:02:36,818 --> 00:03:00,419\n但是呢,到11月初的時候呢具體的政策有什麼要影響?我們講具體,講你預測的反應好不好?到11月初的時候呢,他那個時候呢民調才會覺得就是說,哈里斯跟這個川普呢,兩個是幾股相當我不跟你談事後分析啦,我是談你預測結果,未來是啦未來的是,到目前我們在看呢,你看看\n\n9\n00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:25,767\n美元呢,可能還是會搶的還是會搶,好,謝謝那這樣子你就有清楚的預測美元會搶嗎?然後你這樣匯率,你現在情勢會怎麼樣嘛?對不對?所以我是覺得你預測時不多,但是呢有一個更少的是你的第二部分的報告齁你的第二部分報告這個整個有關於腳褲的部分居然只有三行不到這個部分我更加concern的部分齁\n\n10\n00:03:26,907 --> 00:03:49,340\n貨往我們每年繳貨利益的部分大概是1800到2000的部分那一般影響說因為我們壓低雙率的結果會影響到物價跟房價有這種說法你承不承認沒關係當然我們再來做討論那重點其實是你這樣的情況底下讓整個央行繳戶佔財政收入的比例非常高甚至整個比例甚至高達一成\n\n11\n00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:57,563\n整個國家的腳褲比例超過一成沒有沒有超過一成沒有待會讓你澄清待會讓你澄清第二個呢是國營事業裡頭的大概八到九成我先問第一個問題是說如果是這樣子的話過往我們央行資產在委外操作的部分大概140到150億這個比重大概2.7%不過簡單的講這個部分呢在委外的部分達標只有三年啦有兩年比自鈔還好而已啦也就是說基本上都輸給通膨啦\n\n12\n00:04:19,170 --> 00:04:39,314\n那這個部分你是不是要做一個調整一來呢有沒有可能把這個腳褲的比例來限縮來變成加碼來做為這個資金的上的操作或者呢把這個委外到錯的部分呢加碼成為自操有沒有這個可能性啊用這個部分來增加盈餘啊來來來請說請說事實上呢我們這個調整我們這個二點幾\n\n13\n00:04:46,757 --> 00:05:00,776\n幾%這是我們經過調整以後的一個比例事實上我們是每年都是動態調整的所以就是說我們大概是這樣子如果說他的績效不好的時候我們就把他踢出去\n\n14\n00:05:01,437 --> 00:05:29,498\n我們加入那個就是說那個他的績效那你乾脆自鈔就好你自鈔反而比較好那當然了那你幹嘛委外呢我就是請你說你乾脆自鈔就好啦我剛剛問題點就是請你自鈔就好啦自鈔比例提高就好啦第一個我們給外面來操作的時候有一個好處第一個呢第一個他提供我們很有價值的訊息我說把委外的部分比例減少自鈔的比例提高啦我們也已經是減少啦\n\n15\n00:05:30,319 --> 00:05:49,375\n我們已經是減少了對減少就更是在減少嘛那另外一個部分呢你的營運的部分能不能加碼來作為自鈔啦不可能啦你的資訊就沒有了啦所以二點幾算是很少的啦很少那我是說加碼啦加碼有沒有可能啊加碼如果說他performance好的話當然我們加碼加碼你自己自鈔啦我們加碼自鈔\n\n16\n00:05:53,418 --> 00:06:11,505\n這個跳過這樣跳過接下來的部分一個部分你現階段的部分如果說按照你這個比例的話大概是大概8.85%剛剛說一成不到一成但是畢竟是日本國家的大概19倍之多也是美國的好幾倍\n\n17\n00:06:12,585 --> 00:06:29,484\n這比重這麼高的情況底下他有換算出一個公司是國外的利率乘以外匯存底然後加上定存單的利率加上央行的這個發行量定存單的發行量這四個人在做操作那前面的部分國外利率沒有辦法但是後面的部分就會有關係\n\n18\n00:06:31,185 --> 00:06:46,651\n那導致於呢變成你的整個政策呢會有這種為了達成這個營餘目標的達標而逐反到來推向說你來把這個雙綠政策的一個做調整有沒有可能這樣子我也藉這個機會來跟委員報告\n\n19\n00:06:49,548 --> 00:06:52,270\n絕對不會我用一個很簡單的一個數據來跟委員報告我們是不是請翻開第七頁第七頁呢你可以看看好他說我們故意壓低雙率來達到這個我們引以的目標\n\n20\n00:07:12,088 --> 00:07:23,221\n那好我們來看看在第7月這邊從川普的美中貿易衝突到現在到11月11號你來看看我們新台幣是貶了7.17%\n\n21\n00:07:26,226 --> 00:07:30,192\n歐元7.89%人民幣11.09%澳洲幣是貶了12.8%那如果說我們藉著貶值來達到那個盈餘的角度的話\n\n22\n00:07:44,151 --> 00:08:00,091\n那像韓國、日元、澳幣、人民幣他們都有很多的外匯存比啊那他貶得比我們多那是不是合理懷疑就是說他們比我們更操縱這個匯率來達成他的繳戶數目所以應該他要繳戶更多對啊那我們繳戶營需從哪來啊\n\n23\n00:08:01,893 --> 00:08:11,061\n那當然是我們主要的還是我們很保守的去因為是美元的利率比我們台灣的利率高啊所以說還是賺到利差的關係嘛主要是賺利差嘛接下來剛剛提到所謂的減少發行定存單現在就有一個問題點\n\n24\n00:08:18,206 --> 00:08:40,313\n減少問題單最近的整個8、9月呢減少定存單就少了大概是4千億的這種算法年初的時候8兆那現在剩下7兆2然後這種情況底下就有一種狀況因為減少定存單市場的油資就會更多嘛比如說被懷疑說你一手呢在緊縮資金你在提存一手呢你又在放寬資金\n\n25\n00:08:41,993 --> 00:08:44,534\n我來跟委員報告他的分析完全錯誤為什麼存單會下降我們存款準備率我們不是提了4碼嗎他就被我們抽了多少抽了6250億\n\n26\n00:09:10,501 --> 00:09:21,233\n是這樣的關係喔對啊這是第一個阿第二個呢他說說我們故意壓低利率是不是好那我給各位給委員第六頁第六頁\n\n27\n00:09:22,383 --> 00:09:34,133\n第六頁你看看我們台灣的通膨跟美國的通膨你看美國的通膨是126跟那個2017年來比較他是成長了26.3%24%英國26點歐元是21點幾南韓是11點10點你不要講那麼多對那意思是什麼意思是什麼\n\n28\n00:09:47,825 --> 00:10:04,993\n意思就是說因為我們的物價低,比較低相對啦,當然啦如果有類似的報導就麻煩你及時呈現嘛那當然我覺得利益就會比較低啊好,最後一個問題留給那個彭金龍、彭主委好了啦你回去休息啊,你也要補充說明在你另外開記者會啊\n\n29\n00:10:05,933 --> 00:10:09,655\n主委,三大融資公司之前有統計大概有將近兩千億是來質疑公股銀行跟一般的銀行的資金\n\n30\n00:10:24,861 --> 00:10:51,208\n為什麼我會問這個問題呢就是因為我們72條之後有一些信用管制之後沒有資金的來源然後現在很多人很多中小建商就跑到去找這個融資公司可是問題是融資公司的部分呢他基本上當初給融資公司放款給融資公司主要是做氣袋的部分不過是生產工具有時候是汽車跟機具等等結果融資公司現在很聰明底下又成立了所謂的這些投資公司\n\n31\n00:10:52,668 --> 00:11:09,049\n然後他左手跟公股銀行跟一般銀行拿到2%的這個利息成本外面放呆的成本你知道高達多少嗎高達12到14%啊也就是簡單的講他轉手套利高達10%以上啊那個主委你有沒有知道這種現象\n\n32\n00:11:10,890 --> 00:11:31,197\n這個齁這個我們都有掌握啦有掌握所以有這種現象我們現在也有在關切這個會不會有因為我們七二之二實際上是有關注那個流動性還有就是我們不要過度集中在那邊如果透過一般的企業融資還是流入到不動產的話我想這個東西我們應該要同時來看因為從風險的角度是一樣的啦\n\n33\n00:11:32,037 --> 00:11:59,213\n沒有還有公平爭議嘛你這個根本是監理套利嘛對不對你這個沒有監理到的然後你監理銀行銀行不能貸的結果你讓融資公司貸融資公司貸不但是讓房地產的政策形成破口二來呢它又形成套利的現象這種情況底下你要怎麼進行要不要要求銀行去進行所謂的貸貨管理如果萬一有違反事實的話應該把款項收回你應該有類似這樣的政策主張嘛\n\n34\n00:11:59,673 --> 00:12:17,001\n這跟委員報告這我們正在進行中這要進行當中那你不透露一點進行到什麼情況底下什麼時候要對外講這個外面傳得沸沸揚揚欸所以融資套利可以高達10%這融資公司已經被想成薯條三兄弟了這已經不是三兄弟根本是三土匪嘛\n\n35\n00:12:18,601 --> 00:12:34,330\n三兄弟當很久,現在深圳的行職是土匪我們也在積極的採取一些動作,比如說我們上次也在文匯報告過,我們先採用金融消保法先來納管\n\n36\n00:12:35,871 --> 00:13:02,508\n市長我今天講現在小寶寶那個歐利維南之前的其他的消費正義行為我現在說的這個東西影響到整個房地產的政策影響到總體信用管制也影響到公平正義也影響到那些中小建商的權益吧是這些我們都已經有關你給我一個時間點你什麼時候要處理我們現在就在處理中了處理中我在跟委員在做那個說明要多久我想應該是\n\n37\n00:13:06,377 --> 00:13:19,590\n他一個月之內給委員完整的報告跟說明好,謝謝,謝謝委員好,謝謝郭國文委員處理那個土匪的事情其實也是要快那接著我們請李燕秀委員質詢\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n9\t1269\t好,請楊總裁,謝謝。郭委員長楊總裁,你剛剛講說費特主席他不預測、不猜測不曉得川普的哪些政策什麼時候執行可是今天我們財委會就是要談說他的新任的總統的貿易政策對台灣經濟、金融穩定的可能的影響與對策\n27295\t28716\t影響與對策就是要預測啊可是總裁您大部分都是一些描述性的欸你的預測其實只有在國內的部分的CPI還有包括GDP的成長率多少都是一樣的\n46203\t71513\t你最清楚的預測就是這一個對美國的預測到底是什麼不是不是不是我的意思就是說你看看齁我們的報告裡面也有談到齁就是說你看RMF就是國際貨幣基金然後呢PIE美國華府的智庫他們也有做預測是我說我們啊我們的預測是什麼就譬如講我就舉一個最簡單的例子嘛好你說你說你說你預測來來來我聽你的預測來來來你說你說你說啦\n75695\t76096\t美國國債目前為止換算成台幣的話超過一千兆\n91418\t98944\t美國他們自己本身喔單利息的部分都要償還都要佔GDP的3.4%喔在這種情況底下你認為美元是會走強還是走貶這跟我們的匯率息息相關啊我總是希望看到你的預測嘛\n110137\t123121\t我把我的報告跟各位來看一下事實上你看看我們的第12頁我們第12頁就是說在那個時候就是說在選舉之前那時候就開始盛行9月底的時候就開始盛行說川普的交易那個時候美元就開始在搶了美元就是開始在搶了你看看\n138526\t155597\t九月就預測川普會當選喔欸那個時候是預測川普會當選喔九月中間是有說可能是民主黨會當選啊沒有沒有沒有我跟委員報告事實上呢九月底之後呢一般來講市場都會覺得是川普會贏\n156818\t180419\t但是呢,到11月初的時候呢具體的政策有什麼要影響?我們講具體,講你預測的反應好不好?到11月初的時候呢,他那個時候呢民調才會覺得就是說,哈里斯跟這個川普呢,兩個是幾股相當我不跟你談事後分析啦,我是談你預測結果,未來是啦未來的是,到目前我們在看呢,你看看\n181400\t205767\t美元呢,可能還是會搶的還是會搶,好,謝謝那這樣子你就有清楚的預測美元會搶嗎?然後你這樣匯率,你現在情勢會怎麼樣嘛?對不對?所以我是覺得你預測時不多,但是呢有一個更少的是你的第二部分的報告齁你的第二部分報告這個整個有關於腳褲的部分居然只有三行不到這個部分我更加concern的部分齁\n206907\t229340\t貨往我們每年繳貨利益的部分大概是1800到2000的部分那一般影響說因為我們壓低雙率的結果會影響到物價跟房價有這種說法你承不承認沒關係當然我們再來做討論那重點其實是你這樣的情況底下讓整個央行繳戶佔財政收入的比例非常高甚至整個比例甚至高達一成\n230160\t237563\t整個國家的腳褲比例超過一成沒有沒有超過一成沒有待會讓你澄清待會讓你澄清第二個呢是國營事業裡頭的大概八到九成我先問第一個問題是說如果是這樣子的話過往我們央行資產在委外操作的部分大概140到150億這個比重大概2.7%不過簡單的講這個部分呢在委外的部分達標只有三年啦有兩年比自鈔還好而已啦也就是說基本上都輸給通膨啦\n259170\t279314\t那這個部分你是不是要做一個調整一來呢有沒有可能把這個腳褲的比例來限縮來變成加碼來做為這個資金的上的操作或者呢把這個委外到錯的部分呢加碼成為自操有沒有這個可能性啊用這個部分來增加盈餘啊來來來請說請說事實上呢我們這個調整我們這個二點幾\n286757\t300776\t幾%這是我們經過調整以後的一個比例事實上我們是每年都是動態調整的所以就是說我們大概是這樣子如果說他的績效不好的時候我們就把他踢出去\n301437\t329498\t我們加入那個就是說那個他的績效那你乾脆自鈔就好你自鈔反而比較好那當然了那你幹嘛委外呢我就是請你說你乾脆自鈔就好啦我剛剛問題點就是請你自鈔就好啦自鈔比例提高就好啦第一個我們給外面來操作的時候有一個好處第一個呢第一個他提供我們很有價值的訊息我說把委外的部分比例減少自鈔的比例提高啦我們也已經是減少啦\n330319\t349375\t我們已經是減少了對減少就更是在減少嘛那另外一個部分呢你的營運的部分能不能加碼來作為自鈔啦不可能啦你的資訊就沒有了啦所以二點幾算是很少的啦很少那我是說加碼啦加碼有沒有可能啊加碼如果說他performance好的話當然我們加碼加碼你自己自鈔啦我們加碼自鈔\n353418\t371505\t這個跳過這樣跳過接下來的部分一個部分你現階段的部分如果說按照你這個比例的話大概是大概8.85%剛剛說一成不到一成但是畢竟是日本國家的大概19倍之多也是美國的好幾倍\n372585\t389484\t這比重這麼高的情況底下他有換算出一個公司是國外的利率乘以外匯存底然後加上定存單的利率加上央行的這個發行量定存單的發行量這四個人在做操作那前面的部分國外利率沒有辦法但是後面的部分就會有關係\n391185\t406651\t那導致於呢變成你的整個政策呢會有這種為了達成這個營餘目標的達標而逐反到來推向說你來把這個雙綠政策的一個做調整有沒有可能這樣子我也藉這個機會來跟委員報告\n409548\t412270\t絕對不會我用一個很簡單的一個數據來跟委員報告我們是不是請翻開第七頁第七頁呢你可以看看好他說我們故意壓低雙率來達到這個我們引以的目標\n432088\t443221\t那好我們來看看在第7月這邊從川普的美中貿易衝突到現在到11月11號你來看看我們新台幣是貶了7.17%\n446226\t450192\t歐元7.89%人民幣11.09%澳洲幣是貶了12.8%那如果說我們藉著貶值來達到那個盈餘的角度的話\n464151\t480091\t那像韓國、日元、澳幣、人民幣他們都有很多的外匯存比啊那他貶得比我們多那是不是合理懷疑就是說他們比我們更操縱這個匯率來達成他的繳戶數目所以應該他要繳戶更多對啊那我們繳戶營需從哪來啊\n481893\t491061\t那當然是我們主要的還是我們很保守的去因為是美元的利率比我們台灣的利率高啊所以說還是賺到利差的關係嘛主要是賺利差嘛接下來剛剛提到所謂的減少發行定存單現在就有一個問題點\n498206\t520313\t減少問題單最近的整個8、9月呢減少定存單就少了大概是4千億的這種算法年初的時候8兆那現在剩下7兆2然後這種情況底下就有一種狀況因為減少定存單市場的油資就會更多嘛比如說被懷疑說你一手呢在緊縮資金你在提存一手呢你又在放寬資金\n521993\t524534\t我來跟委員報告他的分析完全錯誤為什麼存單會下降我們存款準備率我們不是提了4碼嗎他就被我們抽了多少抽了6250億\n550501\t561233\t是這樣的關係喔對啊這是第一個阿第二個呢他說說我們故意壓低利率是不是好那我給各位給委員第六頁第六頁\n562383\t574133\t第六頁你看看我們台灣的通膨跟美國的通膨你看美國的通膨是126跟那個2017年來比較他是成長了26.3%24%英國26點歐元是21點幾南韓是11點10點你不要講那麼多對那意思是什麼意思是什麼\n587825\t604993\t意思就是說因為我們的物價低,比較低相對啦,當然啦如果有類似的報導就麻煩你及時呈現嘛那當然我覺得利益就會比較低啊好,最後一個問題留給那個彭金龍、彭主委好了啦你回去休息啊,你也要補充說明在你另外開記者會啊\n605933\t609655\t主委,三大融資公司之前有統計大概有將近兩千億是來質疑公股銀行跟一般的銀行的資金\n624861\t651208\t為什麼我會問這個問題呢就是因為我們72條之後有一些信用管制之後沒有資金的來源然後現在很多人很多中小建商就跑到去找這個融資公司可是問題是融資公司的部分呢他基本上當初給融資公司放款給融資公司主要是做氣袋的部分不過是生產工具有時候是汽車跟機具等等結果融資公司現在很聰明底下又成立了所謂的這些投資公司\n652668\t669049\t然後他左手跟公股銀行跟一般銀行拿到2%的這個利息成本外面放呆的成本你知道高達多少嗎高達12到14%啊也就是簡單的講他轉手套利高達10%以上啊那個主委你有沒有知道這種現象\n670890\t691197\t這個齁 這個我們都有掌握啦 有掌握 所以有這種現象我們現在也有在關切這個會不會有 因為我們七二之二實際上是有關注那個流動性還有就是我們不要過度集中在那邊 如果透過一般的企業融資還是流入到不動產的話我想這個東西我們應該要同時來看 因為從風險的角度是一樣的啦\n692037\t719213\t沒有還有公平爭議嘛你這個根本是監理套利嘛對不對你這個沒有監理到的然後你監理銀行銀行不能貸的結果你讓融資公司貸融資公司貸不但是讓房地產的政策形成破口二來呢它又形成套利的現象這種情況底下你要怎麼進行要不要要求銀行去進行所謂的貸貨管理如果萬一有違反事實的話應該把款項收回你應該有類似這樣的政策主張嘛\n719673\t737001\t這跟委員報告這我們正在進行中這要進行當中那你不透露一點進行到什麼情況底下什麼時候要對外講這個外面傳得沸沸揚揚欸所以融資套利可以高達10%這融資公司已經被想成薯條三兄弟了這已經不是三兄弟根本是三土匪嘛\n738601\t754330\t三兄弟當很久,現在深圳的行職是土匪我們也在積極的採取一些動作,比如說我們上次也在文匯報告過,我們先採用金融消保法先來納管\n755871\t782508\t市長我今天講現在小寶寶那個歐利維南之前的其他的消費正義行為我現在說的這個東西影響到整個房地產的政策影響到總體信用管制也影響到公平正義也影響到那些中小建商的權益吧是這些我們都已經有關你給我一個時間點你什麼時候要處理我們現在就在處理中了處理中我在跟委員在做那個說明要多久我想應該是\n786377\t799590\t他一個月之內給委員完整的報告跟說明好,謝謝,謝謝委員好,謝謝郭國文委員處理那個土匪的事情其實也是要快那接著我們請李燕秀委員質詢\n","txt":"好,請楊總裁,謝謝。郭委員長楊總裁,你剛剛講說費特主席他不預測、不猜測不曉得川普的哪些政策什麼時候執行可是今天我們財委會就是要談說他的新任的總統的貿易政策對台灣經濟、金融穩定的可能的影響與對策\n影響與對策就是要預測啊可是總裁您大部分都是一些描述性的欸你的預測其實只有在國內的部分的CPI還有包括GDP的成長率多少都是一樣的\n你最清楚的預測就是這一個對美國的預測到底是什麼不是不是不是我的意思就是說你看看齁我們的報告裡面也有談到齁就是說你看RMF就是國際貨幣基金然後呢PIE美國華府的智庫他們也有做預測是我說我們啊我們的預測是什麼就譬如講我就舉一個最簡單的例子嘛好你說你說你說你預測來來來我聽你的預測來來來你說你說你說啦\n美國國債目前為止換算成台幣的話超過一千兆\n美國他們自己本身喔單利息的部分都要償還都要佔GDP的3.4%喔在這種情況底下你認為美元是會走強還是走貶這跟我們的匯率息息相關啊我總是希望看到你的預測嘛\n我把我的報告跟各位來看一下事實上你看看我們的第12頁我們第12頁就是說在那個時候就是說在選舉之前那時候就開始盛行9月底的時候就開始盛行說川普的交易那個時候美元就開始在搶了美元就是開始在搶了你看看\n九月就預測川普會當選喔欸那個時候是預測川普會當選喔九月中間是有說可能是民主黨會當選啊沒有沒有沒有我跟委員報告事實上呢九月底之後呢一般來講市場都會覺得是川普會贏\n但是呢,到11月初的時候呢具體的政策有什麼要影響?我們講具體,講你預測的反應好不好?到11月初的時候呢,他那個時候呢民調才會覺得就是說,哈里斯跟這個川普呢,兩個是幾股相當我不跟你談事後分析啦,我是談你預測結果,未來是啦未來的是,到目前我們在看呢,你看看\n美元呢,可能還是會搶的還是會搶,好,謝謝那這樣子你就有清楚的預測美元會搶嗎?然後你這樣匯率,你現在情勢會怎麼樣嘛?對不對?所以我是覺得你預測時不多,但是呢有一個更少的是你的第二部分的報告齁你的第二部分報告這個整個有關於腳褲的部分居然只有三行不到這個部分我更加concern的部分齁\n貨往我們每年繳貨利益的部分大概是1800到2000的部分那一般影響說因為我們壓低雙率的結果會影響到物價跟房價有這種說法你承不承認沒關係當然我們再來做討論那重點其實是你這樣的情況底下讓整個央行繳戶佔財政收入的比例非常高甚至整個比例甚至高達一成\n整個國家的腳褲比例超過一成沒有沒有超過一成沒有待會讓你澄清待會讓你澄清第二個呢是國營事業裡頭的大概八到九成我先問第一個問題是說如果是這樣子的話過往我們央行資產在委外操作的部分大概140到150億這個比重大概2.7%不過簡單的講這個部分呢在委外的部分達標只有三年啦有兩年比自鈔還好而已啦也就是說基本上都輸給通膨啦\n那這個部分你是不是要做一個調整一來呢有沒有可能把這個腳褲的比例來限縮來變成加碼來做為這個資金的上的操作或者呢把這個委外到錯的部分呢加碼成為自操有沒有這個可能性啊用這個部分來增加盈餘啊來來來請說請說事實上呢我們這個調整我們這個二點幾\n幾%這是我們經過調整以後的一個比例事實上我們是每年都是動態調整的所以就是說我們大概是這樣子如果說他的績效不好的時候我們就把他踢出去\n我們加入那個就是說那個他的績效那你乾脆自鈔就好你自鈔反而比較好那當然了那你幹嘛委外呢我就是請你說你乾脆自鈔就好啦我剛剛問題點就是請你自鈔就好啦自鈔比例提高就好啦第一個我們給外面來操作的時候有一個好處第一個呢第一個他提供我們很有價值的訊息我說把委外的部分比例減少自鈔的比例提高啦我們也已經是減少啦\n我們已經是減少了對減少就更是在減少嘛那另外一個部分呢你的營運的部分能不能加碼來作為自鈔啦不可能啦你的資訊就沒有了啦所以二點幾算是很少的啦很少那我是說加碼啦加碼有沒有可能啊加碼如果說他performance好的話當然我們加碼加碼你自己自鈔啦我們加碼自鈔\n這個跳過這樣跳過接下來的部分一個部分你現階段的部分如果說按照你這個比例的話大概是大概8.85%剛剛說一成不到一成但是畢竟是日本國家的大概19倍之多也是美國的好幾倍\n這比重這麼高的情況底下他有換算出一個公司是國外的利率乘以外匯存底然後加上定存單的利率加上央行的這個發行量定存單的發行量這四個人在做操作那前面的部分國外利率沒有辦法但是後面的部分就會有關係\n那導致於呢變成你的整個政策呢會有這種為了達成這個營餘目標的達標而逐反到來推向說你來把這個雙綠政策的一個做調整有沒有可能這樣子我也藉這個機會來跟委員報告\n絕對不會我用一個很簡單的一個數據來跟委員報告我們是不是請翻開第七頁第七頁呢你可以看看好他說我們故意壓低雙率來達到這個我們引以的目標\n那好我們來看看在第7月這邊從川普的美中貿易衝突到現在到11月11號你來看看我們新台幣是貶了7.17%\n歐元7.89%人民幣11.09%澳洲幣是貶了12.8%那如果說我們藉著貶值來達到那個盈餘的角度的話\n那像韓國、日元、澳幣、人民幣他們都有很多的外匯存比啊那他貶得比我們多那是不是合理懷疑就是說他們比我們更操縱這個匯率來達成他的繳戶數目所以應該他要繳戶更多對啊那我們繳戶營需從哪來啊\n那當然是我們主要的還是我們很保守的去因為是美元的利率比我們台灣的利率高啊所以說還是賺到利差的關係嘛主要是賺利差嘛接下來剛剛提到所謂的減少發行定存單現在就有一個問題點\n減少問題單最近的整個8、9月呢減少定存單就少了大概是4千億的這種算法年初的時候8兆那現在剩下7兆2然後這種情況底下就有一種狀況因為減少定存單市場的油資就會更多嘛比如說被懷疑說你一手呢在緊縮資金你在提存一手呢你又在放寬資金\n我來跟委員報告他的分析完全錯誤為什麼存單會下降我們存款準備率我們不是提了4碼嗎他就被我們抽了多少抽了6250億\n是這樣的關係喔對啊這是第一個阿第二個呢他說說我們故意壓低利率是不是好那我給各位給委員第六頁第六頁\n第六頁你看看我們台灣的通膨跟美國的通膨你看美國的通膨是126跟那個2017年來比較他是成長了26.3%24%英國26點歐元是21點幾南韓是11點10點你不要講那麼多對那意思是什麼意思是什麼\n意思就是說因為我們的物價低,比較低相對啦,當然啦如果有類似的報導就麻煩你及時呈現嘛那當然我覺得利益就會比較低啊好,最後一個問題留給那個彭金龍、彭主委好了啦你回去休息啊,你也要補充說明在你另外開記者會啊\n主委,三大融資公司之前有統計大概有將近兩千億是來質疑公股銀行跟一般的銀行的資金\n為什麼我會問這個問題呢就是因為我們72條之後有一些信用管制之後沒有資金的來源然後現在很多人很多中小建商就跑到去找這個融資公司可是問題是融資公司的部分呢他基本上當初給融資公司放款給融資公司主要是做氣袋的部分不過是生產工具有時候是汽車跟機具等等結果融資公司現在很聰明底下又成立了所謂的這些投資公司\n然後他左手跟公股銀行跟一般銀行拿到2%的這個利息成本外面放呆的成本你知道高達多少嗎高達12到14%啊也就是簡單的講他轉手套利高達10%以上啊那個主委你有沒有知道這種現象\n這個齁 這個我們都有掌握啦 有掌握 所以有這種現象我們現在也有在關切這個會不會有 因為我們七二之二實際上是有關注那個流動性還有就是我們不要過度集中在那邊 如果透過一般的企業融資還是流入到不動產的話我想這個東西我們應該要同時來看 因為從風險的角度是一樣的啦\n沒有還有公平爭議嘛你這個根本是監理套利嘛對不對你這個沒有監理到的然後你監理銀行銀行不能貸的結果你讓融資公司貸融資公司貸不但是讓房地產的政策形成破口二來呢它又形成套利的現象這種情況底下你要怎麼進行要不要要求銀行去進行所謂的貸貨管理如果萬一有違反事實的話應該把款項收回你應該有類似這樣的政策主張嘛\n這跟委員報告這我們正在進行中這要進行當中那你不透露一點進行到什麼情況底下什麼時候要對外講這個外面傳得沸沸揚揚欸所以融資套利可以高達10%這融資公司已經被想成薯條三兄弟了這已經不是三兄弟根本是三土匪嘛\n三兄弟當很久,現在深圳的行職是土匪我們也在積極的採取一些動作,比如說我們上次也在文匯報告過,我們先採用金融消保法先來納管\n市長我今天講現在小寶寶那個歐利維南之前的其他的消費正義行為我現在說的這個東西影響到整個房地產的政策影響到總體信用管制也影響到公平正義也影響到那些中小建商的權益吧是這些我們都已經有關你給我一個時間點你什麼時候要處理我們現在就在處理中了處理中我在跟委員在做那個說明要多久我想應該是\n他一個月之內給委員完整的報告跟說明好,謝謝,謝謝委員好,謝謝郭國文委員處理那個土匪的事情其實也是要快那接著我們請李燕秀委員質詢\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.009 --> 00:01.269\n好,請楊總裁,謝謝。郭委員長楊總裁,你剛剛講說費特主席他不預測、不猜測不曉得川普的哪些政策什麼時候執行可是今天我們財委會就是要談說他的新任的總統的貿易政策對台灣經濟、金融穩定的可能的影響與對策\n\n00:27.295 --> 00:28.716\n影響與對策就是要預測啊可是總裁您大部分都是一些描述性的欸你的預測其實只有在國內的部分的CPI還有包括GDP的成長率多少都是一樣的\n\n00:46.203 --> 01:11.513\n你最清楚的預測就是這一個對美國的預測到底是什麼不是不是不是我的意思就是說你看看齁我們的報告裡面也有談到齁就是說你看RMF就是國際貨幣基金然後呢PIE美國華府的智庫他們也有做預測是我說我們啊我們的預測是什麼就譬如講我就舉一個最簡單的例子嘛好你說你說你說你預測來來來我聽你的預測來來來你說你說你說啦\n\n01:15.695 --> 01:16.096\n美國國債目前為止換算成台幣的話超過一千兆\n\n01:31.418 --> 01:38.944\n美國他們自己本身喔單利息的部分都要償還都要佔GDP的3.4%喔在這種情況底下你認為美元是會走強還是走貶這跟我們的匯率息息相關啊我總是希望看到你的預測嘛\n\n01:50.137 --> 02:03.121\n我把我的報告跟各位來看一下事實上你看看我們的第12頁我們第12頁就是說在那個時候就是說在選舉之前那時候就開始盛行9月底的時候就開始盛行說川普的交易那個時候美元就開始在搶了美元就是開始在搶了你看看\n\n02:18.526 --> 02:35.597\n九月就預測川普會當選喔欸那個時候是預測川普會當選喔九月中間是有說可能是民主黨會當選啊沒有沒有沒有我跟委員報告事實上呢九月底之後呢一般來講市場都會覺得是川普會贏\n\n02:36.818 --> 03:00.419\n但是呢,到11月初的時候呢具體的政策有什麼要影響?我們講具體,講你預測的反應好不好?到11月初的時候呢,他那個時候呢民調才會覺得就是說,哈里斯跟這個川普呢,兩個是幾股相當我不跟你談事後分析啦,我是談你預測結果,未來是啦未來的是,到目前我們在看呢,你看看\n\n03:01.400 --> 03:25.767\n美元呢,可能還是會搶的還是會搶,好,謝謝那這樣子你就有清楚的預測美元會搶嗎?然後你這樣匯率,你現在情勢會怎麼樣嘛?對不對?所以我是覺得你預測時不多,但是呢有一個更少的是你的第二部分的報告齁你的第二部分報告這個整個有關於腳褲的部分居然只有三行不到這個部分我更加concern的部分齁\n\n03:26.907 --> 03:49.340\n貨往我們每年繳貨利益的部分大概是1800到2000的部分那一般影響說因為我們壓低雙率的結果會影響到物價跟房價有這種說法你承不承認沒關係當然我們再來做討論那重點其實是你這樣的情況底下讓整個央行繳戶佔財政收入的比例非常高甚至整個比例甚至高達一成\n\n03:50.160 --> 03:57.563\n整個國家的腳褲比例超過一成沒有沒有超過一成沒有待會讓你澄清待會讓你澄清第二個呢是國營事業裡頭的大概八到九成我先問第一個問題是說如果是這樣子的話過往我們央行資產在委外操作的部分大概140到150億這個比重大概2.7%不過簡單的講這個部分呢在委外的部分達標只有三年啦有兩年比自鈔還好而已啦也就是說基本上都輸給通膨啦\n\n04:19.170 --> 04:39.314\n那這個部分你是不是要做一個調整一來呢有沒有可能把這個腳褲的比例來限縮來變成加碼來做為這個資金的上的操作或者呢把這個委外到錯的部分呢加碼成為自操有沒有這個可能性啊用這個部分來增加盈餘啊來來來請說請說事實上呢我們這個調整我們這個二點幾\n\n04:46.757 --> 05:00.776\n幾%這是我們經過調整以後的一個比例事實上我們是每年都是動態調整的所以就是說我們大概是這樣子如果說他的績效不好的時候我們就把他踢出去\n\n05:01.437 --> 05:29.498\n我們加入那個就是說那個他的績效那你乾脆自鈔就好你自鈔反而比較好那當然了那你幹嘛委外呢我就是請你說你乾脆自鈔就好啦我剛剛問題點就是請你自鈔就好啦自鈔比例提高就好啦第一個我們給外面來操作的時候有一個好處第一個呢第一個他提供我們很有價值的訊息我說把委外的部分比例減少自鈔的比例提高啦我們也已經是減少啦\n\n05:30.319 --> 05:49.375\n我們已經是減少了對減少就更是在減少嘛那另外一個部分呢你的營運的部分能不能加碼來作為自鈔啦不可能啦你的資訊就沒有了啦所以二點幾算是很少的啦很少那我是說加碼啦加碼有沒有可能啊加碼如果說他performance好的話當然我們加碼加碼你自己自鈔啦我們加碼自鈔\n\n05:53.418 --> 06:11.505\n這個跳過這樣跳過接下來的部分一個部分你現階段的部分如果說按照你這個比例的話大概是大概8.85%剛剛說一成不到一成但是畢竟是日本國家的大概19倍之多也是美國的好幾倍\n\n06:12.585 --> 06:29.484\n這比重這麼高的情況底下他有換算出一個公司是國外的利率乘以外匯存底然後加上定存單的利率加上央行的這個發行量定存單的發行量這四個人在做操作那前面的部分國外利率沒有辦法但是後面的部分就會有關係\n\n06:31.185 --> 06:46.651\n那導致於呢變成你的整個政策呢會有這種為了達成這個營餘目標的達標而逐反到來推向說你來把這個雙綠政策的一個做調整有沒有可能這樣子我也藉這個機會來跟委員報告\n\n06:49.548 --> 06:52.270\n絕對不會我用一個很簡單的一個數據來跟委員報告我們是不是請翻開第七頁第七頁呢你可以看看好他說我們故意壓低雙率來達到這個我們引以的目標\n\n07:12.088 --> 07:23.221\n那好我們來看看在第7月這邊從川普的美中貿易衝突到現在到11月11號你來看看我們新台幣是貶了7.17%\n\n07:26.226 --> 07:30.192\n歐元7.89%人民幣11.09%澳洲幣是貶了12.8%那如果說我們藉著貶值來達到那個盈餘的角度的話\n\n07:44.151 --> 08:00.091\n那像韓國、日元、澳幣、人民幣他們都有很多的外匯存比啊那他貶得比我們多那是不是合理懷疑就是說他們比我們更操縱這個匯率來達成他的繳戶數目所以應該他要繳戶更多對啊那我們繳戶營需從哪來啊\n\n08:01.893 --> 08:11.061\n那當然是我們主要的還是我們很保守的去因為是美元的利率比我們台灣的利率高啊所以說還是賺到利差的關係嘛主要是賺利差嘛接下來剛剛提到所謂的減少發行定存單現在就有一個問題點\n\n08:18.206 --> 08:40.313\n減少問題單最近的整個8、9月呢減少定存單就少了大概是4千億的這種算法年初的時候8兆那現在剩下7兆2然後這種情況底下就有一種狀況因為減少定存單市場的油資就會更多嘛比如說被懷疑說你一手呢在緊縮資金你在提存一手呢你又在放寬資金\n\n08:41.993 --> 08:44.534\n我來跟委員報告他的分析完全錯誤為什麼存單會下降我們存款準備率我們不是提了4碼嗎他就被我們抽了多少抽了6250億\n\n09:10.501 --> 09:21.233\n是這樣的關係喔對啊這是第一個阿第二個呢他說說我們故意壓低利率是不是好那我給各位給委員第六頁第六頁\n\n09:22.383 --> 09:34.133\n第六頁你看看我們台灣的通膨跟美國的通膨你看美國的通膨是126跟那個2017年來比較他是成長了26.3%24%英國26點歐元是21點幾南韓是11點10點你不要講那麼多對那意思是什麼意思是什麼\n\n09:47.825 --> 10:04.993\n意思就是說因為我們的物價低,比較低相對啦,當然啦如果有類似的報導就麻煩你及時呈現嘛那當然我覺得利益就會比較低啊好,最後一個問題留給那個彭金龍、彭主委好了啦你回去休息啊,你也要補充說明在你另外開記者會啊\n\n10:05.933 --> 10:09.655\n主委,三大融資公司之前有統計大概有將近兩千億是來質疑公股銀行跟一般的銀行的資金\n\n10:24.861 --> 10:51.208\n為什麼我會問這個問題呢就是因為我們72條之後有一些信用管制之後沒有資金的來源然後現在很多人很多中小建商就跑到去找這個融資公司可是問題是融資公司的部分呢他基本上當初給融資公司放款給融資公司主要是做氣袋的部分不過是生產工具有時候是汽車跟機具等等結果融資公司現在很聰明底下又成立了所謂的這些投資公司\n\n10:52.668 --> 11:09.049\n然後他左手跟公股銀行跟一般銀行拿到2%的這個利息成本外面放呆的成本你知道高達多少嗎高達12到14%啊也就是簡單的講他轉手套利高達10%以上啊那個主委你有沒有知道這種現象\n\n11:10.890 --> 11:31.197\n這個齁這個我們都有掌握啦有掌握所以有這種現象我們現在也有在關切這個會不會有因為我們七二之二實際上是有關注那個流動性還有就是我們不要過度集中在那邊如果透過一般的企業融資還是流入到不動產的話我想這個東西我們應該要同時來看因為從風險的角度是一樣的啦\n\n11:32.037 --> 11:59.213\n沒有還有公平爭議嘛你這個根本是監理套利嘛對不對你這個沒有監理到的然後你監理銀行銀行不能貸的結果你讓融資公司貸融資公司貸不但是讓房地產的政策形成破口二來呢它又形成套利的現象這種情況底下你要怎麼進行要不要要求銀行去進行所謂的貸貨管理如果萬一有違反事實的話應該把款項收回你應該有類似這樣的政策主張嘛\n\n11:59.673 --> 12:17.001\n這跟委員報告這我們正在進行中這要進行當中那你不透露一點進行到什麼情況底下什麼時候要對外講這個外面傳得沸沸揚揚欸所以融資套利可以高達10%這融資公司已經被想成薯條三兄弟了這已經不是三兄弟根本是三土匪嘛\n\n12:18.601 --> 12:34.330\n三兄弟當很久,現在深圳的行職是土匪我們也在積極的採取一些動作,比如說我們上次也在文匯報告過,我們先採用金融消保法先來納管\n\n12:35.871 --> 13:02.508\n市長我今天講現在小寶寶那個歐利維南之前的其他的消費正義行為我現在說的這個東西影響到整個房地產的政策影響到總體信用管制也影響到公平正義也影響到那些中小建商的權益吧是這些我們都已經有關你給我一個時間點你什麼時候要處理我們現在就在處理中了處理中我在跟委員在做那個說明要多久我想應該是\n\n13:06.377 --> 13:19.590\n他一個月之內給委員完整的報告跟說明好,謝謝,謝謝委員好,謝謝郭國文委員處理那個土匪的事情其實也是要快那接著我們請李燕秀委員質詢\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.009,"end":1.269,"text":"好,請楊總裁,謝謝。郭委員長楊總裁,你剛剛講說費特主席他不預測、不猜測不曉得川普的哪些政策什麼時候執行可是今天我們財委會就是要談說他的新任的總統的貿易政策對台灣經濟、金融穩定的可能的影響與對策"},{"start":27.295,"end":28.716,"text":"影響與對策就是要預測啊可是總裁您大部分都是一些描述性的欸你的預測其實只有在國內的部分的CPI還有包括GDP的成長率多少都是一樣的"},{"start":46.203,"end":71.513,"text":"你最清楚的預測就是這一個對美國的預測到底是什麼不是不是不是我的意思就是說你看看齁我們的報告裡面也有談到齁就是說你看RMF就是國際貨幣基金然後呢PIE美國華府的智庫他們也有做預測是我說我們啊我們的預測是什麼就譬如講我就舉一個最簡單的例子嘛好你說你說你說你預測來來來我聽你的預測來來來你說你說你說啦"},{"start":75.695,"end":76.096,"text":"美國國債目前為止換算成台幣的話超過一千兆"},{"start":91.418,"end":98.944,"text":"美國他們自己本身喔單利息的部分都要償還都要佔GDP的3.4%喔在這種情況底下你認為美元是會走強還是走貶這跟我們的匯率息息相關啊我總是希望看到你的預測嘛"},{"start":110.137,"end":123.121,"text":"我把我的報告跟各位來看一下事實上你看看我們的第12頁我們第12頁就是說在那個時候就是說在選舉之前那時候就開始盛行9月底的時候就開始盛行說川普的交易那個時候美元就開始在搶了美元就是開始在搶了你看看"},{"start":138.526,"end":155.597,"text":"九月就預測川普會當選喔欸那個時候是預測川普會當選喔九月中間是有說可能是民主黨會當選啊沒有沒有沒有我跟委員報告事實上呢九月底之後呢一般來講市場都會覺得是川普會贏"},{"start":156.818,"end":180.419,"text":"但是呢,到11月初的時候呢具體的政策有什麼要影響?我們講具體,講你預測的反應好不好?到11月初的時候呢,他那個時候呢民調才會覺得就是說,哈里斯跟這個川普呢,兩個是幾股相當我不跟你談事後分析啦,我是談你預測結果,未來是啦未來的是,到目前我們在看呢,你看看"},{"start":181.4,"end":205.767,"text":"美元呢,可能還是會搶的還是會搶,好,謝謝那這樣子你就有清楚的預測美元會搶嗎?然後你這樣匯率,你現在情勢會怎麼樣嘛?對不對?所以我是覺得你預測時不多,但是呢有一個更少的是你的第二部分的報告齁你的第二部分報告這個整個有關於腳褲的部分居然只有三行不到這個部分我更加concern的部分齁"},{"start":206.907,"end":229.34,"text":"貨往我們每年繳貨利益的部分大概是1800到2000的部分那一般影響說因為我們壓低雙率的結果會影響到物價跟房價有這種說法你承不承認沒關係當然我們再來做討論那重點其實是你這樣的情況底下讓整個央行繳戶佔財政收入的比例非常高甚至整個比例甚至高達一成"},{"start":230.16,"end":237.563,"text":"整個國家的腳褲比例超過一成沒有沒有超過一成沒有待會讓你澄清待會讓你澄清第二個呢是國營事業裡頭的大概八到九成我先問第一個問題是說如果是這樣子的話過往我們央行資產在委外操作的部分大概140到150億這個比重大概2.7%不過簡單的講這個部分呢在委外的部分達標只有三年啦有兩年比自鈔還好而已啦也就是說基本上都輸給通膨啦"},{"start":259.17,"end":279.314,"text":"那這個部分你是不是要做一個調整一來呢有沒有可能把這個腳褲的比例來限縮來變成加碼來做為這個資金的上的操作或者呢把這個委外到錯的部分呢加碼成為自操有沒有這個可能性啊用這個部分來增加盈餘啊來來來請說請說事實上呢我們這個調整我們這個二點幾"},{"start":286.757,"end":300.776,"text":"幾%這是我們經過調整以後的一個比例事實上我們是每年都是動態調整的所以就是說我們大概是這樣子如果說他的績效不好的時候我們就把他踢出去"},{"start":301.437,"end":329.498,"text":"我們加入那個就是說那個他的績效那你乾脆自鈔就好你自鈔反而比較好那當然了那你幹嘛委外呢我就是請你說你乾脆自鈔就好啦我剛剛問題點就是請你自鈔就好啦自鈔比例提高就好啦第一個我們給外面來操作的時候有一個好處第一個呢第一個他提供我們很有價值的訊息我說把委外的部分比例減少自鈔的比例提高啦我們也已經是減少啦"},{"start":330.319,"end":349.375,"text":"我們已經是減少了對減少就更是在減少嘛那另外一個部分呢你的營運的部分能不能加碼來作為自鈔啦不可能啦你的資訊就沒有了啦所以二點幾算是很少的啦很少那我是說加碼啦加碼有沒有可能啊加碼如果說他performance好的話當然我們加碼加碼你自己自鈔啦我們加碼自鈔"},{"start":353.418,"end":371.505,"text":"這個跳過這樣跳過接下來的部分一個部分你現階段的部分如果說按照你這個比例的話大概是大概8.85%剛剛說一成不到一成但是畢竟是日本國家的大概19倍之多也是美國的好幾倍"},{"start":372.585,"end":389.484,"text":"這比重這麼高的情況底下他有換算出一個公司是國外的利率乘以外匯存底然後加上定存單的利率加上央行的這個發行量定存單的發行量這四個人在做操作那前面的部分國外利率沒有辦法但是後面的部分就會有關係"},{"start":391.185,"end":406.651,"text":"那導致於呢變成你的整個政策呢會有這種為了達成這個營餘目標的達標而逐反到來推向說你來把這個雙綠政策的一個做調整有沒有可能這樣子我也藉這個機會來跟委員報告"},{"start":409.548,"end":412.27,"text":"絕對不會我用一個很簡單的一個數據來跟委員報告我們是不是請翻開第七頁第七頁呢你可以看看好他說我們故意壓低雙率來達到這個我們引以的目標"},{"start":432.088,"end":443.221,"text":"那好我們來看看在第7月這邊從川普的美中貿易衝突到現在到11月11號你來看看我們新台幣是貶了7.17%"},{"start":446.226,"end":450.192,"text":"歐元7.89%人民幣11.09%澳洲幣是貶了12.8%那如果說我們藉著貶值來達到那個盈餘的角度的話"},{"start":464.151,"end":480.091,"text":"那像韓國、日元、澳幣、人民幣他們都有很多的外匯存比啊那他貶得比我們多那是不是合理懷疑就是說他們比我們更操縱這個匯率來達成他的繳戶數目所以應該他要繳戶更多對啊那我們繳戶營需從哪來啊"},{"start":481.893,"end":491.061,"text":"那當然是我們主要的還是我們很保守的去因為是美元的利率比我們台灣的利率高啊所以說還是賺到利差的關係嘛主要是賺利差嘛接下來剛剛提到所謂的減少發行定存單現在就有一個問題點"},{"start":498.206,"end":520.313,"text":"減少問題單最近的整個8、9月呢減少定存單就少了大概是4千億的這種算法年初的時候8兆那現在剩下7兆2然後這種情況底下就有一種狀況因為減少定存單市場的油資就會更多嘛比如說被懷疑說你一手呢在緊縮資金你在提存一手呢你又在放寬資金"},{"start":521.993,"end":524.534,"text":"我來跟委員報告他的分析完全錯誤為什麼存單會下降我們存款準備率我們不是提了4碼嗎他就被我們抽了多少抽了6250億"},{"start":550.501,"end":561.233,"text":"是這樣的關係喔對啊這是第一個阿第二個呢他說說我們故意壓低利率是不是好那我給各位給委員第六頁第六頁"},{"start":562.383,"end":574.133,"text":"第六頁你看看我們台灣的通膨跟美國的通膨你看美國的通膨是126跟那個2017年來比較他是成長了26.3%24%英國26點歐元是21點幾南韓是11點10點你不要講那麼多對那意思是什麼意思是什麼"},{"start":587.825,"end":604.993,"text":"意思就是說因為我們的物價低,比較低相對啦,當然啦如果有類似的報導就麻煩你及時呈現嘛那當然我覺得利益就會比較低啊好,最後一個問題留給那個彭金龍、彭主委好了啦你回去休息啊,你也要補充說明在你另外開記者會啊"},{"start":605.933,"end":609.655,"text":"主委,三大融資公司之前有統計大概有將近兩千億是來質疑公股銀行跟一般的銀行的資金"},{"start":624.861,"end":651.208,"text":"為什麼我會問這個問題呢就是因為我們72條之後有一些信用管制之後沒有資金的來源然後現在很多人很多中小建商就跑到去找這個融資公司可是問題是融資公司的部分呢他基本上當初給融資公司放款給融資公司主要是做氣袋的部分不過是生產工具有時候是汽車跟機具等等結果融資公司現在很聰明底下又成立了所謂的這些投資公司"},{"start":652.668,"end":669.049,"text":"然後他左手跟公股銀行跟一般銀行拿到2%的這個利息成本外面放呆的成本你知道高達多少嗎高達12到14%啊也就是簡單的講他轉手套利高達10%以上啊那個主委你有沒有知道這種現象"},{"start":670.89,"end":691.197,"text":"這個齁 這個我們都有掌握啦 有掌握 所以有這種現象我們現在也有在關切這個會不會有 因為我們七二之二實際上是有關注那個流動性還有就是我們不要過度集中在那邊 如果透過一般的企業融資還是流入到不動產的話我想這個東西我們應該要同時來看 因為從風險的角度是一樣的啦"},{"start":692.037,"end":719.213,"text":"沒有還有公平爭議嘛你這個根本是監理套利嘛對不對你這個沒有監理到的然後你監理銀行銀行不能貸的結果你讓融資公司貸融資公司貸不但是讓房地產的政策形成破口二來呢它又形成套利的現象這種情況底下你要怎麼進行要不要要求銀行去進行所謂的貸貨管理如果萬一有違反事實的話應該把款項收回你應該有類似這樣的政策主張嘛"},{"start":719.673,"end":737.001,"text":"這跟委員報告這我們正在進行中這要進行當中那你不透露一點進行到什麼情況底下什麼時候要對外講這個外面傳得沸沸揚揚欸所以融資套利可以高達10%這融資公司已經被想成薯條三兄弟了這已經不是三兄弟根本是三土匪嘛"},{"start":738.601,"end":754.33,"text":"三兄弟當很久,現在深圳的行職是土匪我們也在積極的採取一些動作,比如說我們上次也在文匯報告過,我們先採用金融消保法先來納管"},{"start":755.871,"end":782.508,"text":"市長我今天講現在小寶寶那個歐利維南之前的其他的消費正義行為我現在說的這個東西影響到整個房地產的政策影響到總體信用管制也影響到公平正義也影響到那些中小建商的權益吧是這些我們都已經有關你給我一個時間點你什麼時候要處理我們現在就在處理中了處理中我在跟委員在做那個說明要多久我想應該是"},{"start":786.377,"end":799.59,"text":"他一個月之內給委員完整的報告跟說明好,謝謝,謝謝委員好,謝謝郭國文委員處理那個土匪的事情其實也是要快那接著我們請李燕秀委員質詢"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":484,"blocks":[["郭委員國文：（10時）謝謝主席。我還是要請楊金龍楊總裁。"],["主席：好，請楊總裁，謝謝。"],["楊總裁金龍：郭委員早。"],["郭委員國文：楊總裁，你剛剛說Fed主席不預測、不猜測、不曉得川普的哪些政策什麼時候執行，可是今天財委會就是要談「美國新任總統的貿易政策對臺灣經濟與金融穩定之可能影響與對策」，而影響與對策就是要預測，可是……"],["楊總裁金龍：是，我有預測，我有預測，我的報告有預測啊！"],["郭委員國文：可是你們大部分都是一些描述性的說明，你的預測其實只有國內部分的CPI，還有包括GDP成長率多少，都是一樣的，你最清楚的預測就這一個，但對美國的預測到底是什麼？"],["楊總裁金龍：不是，不是，你看我們的報告，裡面也有談到，IMF國際貨幣基金，還有PIIE美國華府智庫他們做的預測……"],["郭委員國文：我是說我們啦！我們的預測是什麼？"],["楊總裁金龍：但是我……"],["郭委員國文：譬如我舉一個最簡單的例子……"],["楊總裁金龍：我、我、我……"],["郭委員國文：好，你說，你說，你說有預測，來，來，我聽你的預測。"],["楊總裁金龍：好啦！委員你說，你說。"],["郭委員國文：來，你說，你說啦！我就聽你預測，我們是在聽你講啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有啦！委員你先說，我再來說。"],["郭委員國文：好，那我就舉一個例子，讓你來預測好了。"],["楊總裁金龍：好、好。"],["郭委員國文：就以剛剛提到的美國國債多少的問題，到目前為止，美國國債如果換算成臺幣，超過1,000兆，他們單是利息部分就要償還掉GDP的3.4%，在這種情況底下，你認為美元事實上會走強還是走貶？這跟我們的匯率息息相關……"],["楊總裁金龍：是，是，沒有錯。"],["郭委員國文：對不對？我總是希望看到你的預測嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：好，好，委員，我把我的報告跟各位說明一下。事實上，你看報告的第12頁，在選舉之前，就是9月底的時候，開始盛行說Trump Trade，就是所謂川普交易，那個時候美元就開始在強了，從那個時候到……"],["郭委員國文：9月就預測川普會當選了喔？"],["楊總裁金龍：欸，那個時候是有預測川普會當選喔！"],["郭委員國文：9月？中間也有說可能是民主黨會當選啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：欸，沒有，沒有，我跟委員報告，事實上，9月底之後，一般來講，市場都覺得是川普會贏，但是到11月初的時候……"],["郭委員國文：具體的政策有什麼樣影響？能不能講你預測的final，好不好？"],["楊總裁金龍：到11月初那個時候，民調才覺得Harris跟川普兩個是旗鼓相當……"],["郭委員國文：我不跟你談事後分析，我就談你預測的結果，未來的事啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：喔！未來的事喔！目前我們來看，美元可能還是會強……"],["郭委員國文：還是會強？"],["楊總裁金龍：欸，可能美元還是會強。"],["郭委員國文：好，謝謝。這樣子你就有清楚預測美元會強……"],["楊總裁金龍：對，對。"],["郭委員國文：那匯率的情勢會怎樣？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：我是覺得你預測值不多，但有一個更少的部分，報告的第二部分，就是有關於繳庫部分，居然只有3行不到，這個是我更concern的部分。過往我們每年獲利繳庫大概是1,800億到2,000億，一般認為這是壓低雙率的結果，會影響到物價跟房價，這種說法，你承不承認？沒關係，待會我們再來討論。重點是，在這樣的情況下，整個央行繳庫占財政收入比例非常高，甚至比例高達一成，整個國家繳庫比例超過一成……"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有，沒有，沒有超過一成……"],["郭委員國文：沒有？待會讓你澄清，待會讓你澄清。第二個，所有國營事業上繳的八到九成，我先問第一個問題，如果是這樣的話，過往央行資產委外操作部分，大概是140到150億，比重約占2.7%，簡單講，委外部分達標只有3年，有2年是比自操還好，也就是說基本上都輸給通膨，這個部分是不是要做調整？一來有沒有可能把繳庫的比例限縮，加碼作為資金上的操作，或者把委外代操的部分加碼成為自操，有沒有這個可能性？用這個部分來增加盈餘啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：委員我跟你報告，事實上百分之二點幾是我們經過調整以後的比例……"],["郭委員國文：刻意調整？"],["楊總裁金龍：事實上我們每年都是動態調整的，也就是說，如果它的績效不好的時候，我們就把它踢出去，然後加入績效……"],["郭委員國文：大部分都不好啊！那你乾脆自操就好了，自操反而比較好啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：那當然啊！所以你會發現就是說……"],["郭委員國文：那幹嘛委外呢？我就是說請你們乾脆自操就好了，我剛剛的問題點就是請你們自操就好，自操的比例提高就好了啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有、沒有，我們給外面來操作有一個好處，它提供我們很有價值的訊息。"],["郭委員國文：我是說把委外的部分比例減少，自操的比例提高啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：我們已經減少了啊！"],["郭委員國文：就是再減少嘛！另外一個部分，你的盈餘的部分能不能加碼來作為自操？"],["楊總裁金龍：如果還要再減少，那委員的意思是減少到零嗎？"],["郭委員國文：不可能啊，那你的資訊就沒有了啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：百分之二點幾算是很少的了。"],["郭委員國文：很少？"],["楊總裁金龍：對啊！"],["郭委員國文：我是說加碼啦，加碼有沒有可能？"],["楊總裁金龍：加碼的話，如果它performance好的話，那我們當然加碼啊！"],["郭委員國文：加碼你自己自操啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：我們加碼自操……"],["郭委員國文：這個跳過好了。接下來，現階段如果按照這個比例的話，大概是8.85%，你剛剛說一成，其實不到一成，但畢竟是日本的19倍之多，也是美國的好幾倍，在比重這麼高的情況底下，它有換算出一個公式是國外的利率乘以外匯存底，然後加上定存單的利率，再加上央行的定存單發行量，這四個是你在操作，前面的部分國外利率沒有辦法，但是後面的部分就會有關係，導致你的整個政策會有這種為了達成盈餘目標，反倒推向你把雙率政策加以調整，有沒有可能這樣子？"],["楊總裁金龍：我也藉這個機會來跟委員報告，絕對不會！"],["郭委員國文：絕對不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：絕對不會！我用一個很簡單的數據來跟委員報告，請翻開第7頁，如果我們故意壓低雙率來達到盈餘的目標，那我們來看看第7頁這邊，從川普的美中貿易衝突到11月11日，你看看我們新臺幣是貶了7.17%，歐元貶了7.89%，人民幣貶了11.09%，澳洲幣貶了……"],["郭委員國文：這我都有看到，重點你是要說什麼？"],["楊總裁金龍：如果我們藉著貶值來達到盈餘繳庫的話，那像韓元、日圓、澳幣、人民幣，它們都有很多的外匯存底，它貶得比我們多，那是不是能合理懷疑他們比我們更操縱匯率來達成他們的繳庫數？"],["郭委員國文：所以應該它要繳庫更多。"],["楊總裁金龍：對啊！"],["郭委員國文：那我們繳庫的盈餘是從哪裡來？"],["楊總裁金龍：當然主要還是我們很保守的去……因為美元的利率比臺灣的利率高啊！"],["郭委員國文：所以還是賺到利差的關係嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：好，賺到利差……"],["郭委員國文：主要是賺利差嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：好，賺到利差……"],["郭委員國文：剛剛提到所謂的減少發行定存單，現在就有一個問題點，整個8、9月的定存單就少了大概4,000億，年初的時候有8兆，現在剩下7.2兆，在這種情況底下就有一個問題，因為減少定存單，市場的游資就會更多，也就是說，你被懷疑一手在緊縮資金，你在提準，另外一手你又在放寬資金，兩手策略，總裁，會不會這樣子？"],["楊總裁金龍：我來跟委員報告，他的分析完全錯誤……"],["郭委員國文：完全錯誤？"],["楊總裁金龍：完全錯誤！第一個，為什麼存單會下降？我們的存款準備率不是提了4碼嗎？它被我們抽了多少？抽了6,250億。"],["郭委員國文：是這樣的關係喔！"],["楊總裁金龍：對啊，這是第一個。第二個，他說我們故意壓低利率是不是？請各位翻開第6頁，以臺灣的通膨跟美國的通膨而言，你看美國的通膨是124%，跟2017年比較它成長了24%，英國是26.3%，歐盟是21.2%，南韓是14.3%。"],["郭委員國文：你不要講那麼多，總裁，你已經把我的質詢時間當成記者會在開了。"],["楊總裁金龍：意思是什麼？意思就是說因為我們的物價相對比較低，當然……"],["郭委員國文：以後有類似的報導，就麻煩你即時澄清嘛！你這樣花了我很多時間耶，我對你太好了！"],["楊總裁金龍：當然我們的利率就會比較低啊！"],["郭委員國文：最後一個問題留給彭金隆主委好了，總裁你回去休息，如果你要補充說明，你另外再開記者會啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：好，謝謝。"],["主席：郭國文委員，我會再補給你1分鐘，因為李彥秀剛剛很霸氣說補給郭國文1分鐘。"],["郭委員國文：好，謝謝。主委，三大融資公司之前有統計，大概有將近2,000億是來自於公股銀行及一般銀行的資金，為什麼我會問這個問題？就是因為第七十二條之二有一些信用管制之後，沒有資金的來源，然後現在很多中小建商就跑去找融資公司，問題是針對融資公司的部分，基本上當初放款給融資公司主要是做汽貸，不過是讓他們有生財工具包括汽車、機具等等，結果融資公司很聰明，底下又成立了所謂的投資公司，它左手跟公股銀行或一般銀行拿到2%的利息成本，然後外面放貸的成本你知道高達多少嗎？高達12%到24%啊！也就是簡單的把它轉手套利高達10%以上，主委，你知不知道這種現象？"],["彭主任委員金隆：這個我們都有掌握啦，因為剛剛……"],["郭委員國文：有掌握？所以有這種現象？"],["彭主任委員金隆：對，我們現在也有在關切這個會不會有……因為第七十二條之二實際上是有關注流動性，還有就是我們不要過度集中在那邊，如果透過一般的企業融資，還是流入到不動產的話，我想這個東西我們應該要同時來看，因為從風險的角度來看是一樣的啦！"],["郭委員國文：對，還有公平正義嗎？這根本是監理套利，對不對？這是你沒有監理到的，然後你監理銀行，銀行不能貸的，結果融資公司貸，融資公司貸，不但是讓房地產的政策形成破口，二來它又形成套利的現象，在這種情況底下你要怎麼進行？要不要要求銀行去進行所謂的貸後管理？萬一有違反事實的話，應該把款項收回，你應該有類似這樣的政策主張，不是嗎？"],["彭主任委員金隆：跟委員報告，這我們正在進行中。"],["郭委員國文：正在進行當中？"],["彭主任委員金隆：是的。"],["郭委員國文：那你要不要透露一點，進行到什麼情況、什麼時候要對外講？這個外面傳得沸沸揚揚，現在融資套利可以高達10%，融資公司已經被想成薯條三兄弟了，這已經不是三兄弟，根本是三土匪嘛！"],["彭主任委員金隆：三兄弟的稱號已經很久了啦！我想我們最近也……"],["郭委員國文：三兄弟當很久了，現在真正的形式是土匪嘛！"],["彭主任委員金隆：我們也在積極的採取一些動作，比如我們上次也在委員會報告過，我們採用金融消保法先來納管，我想這部分……"],["郭委員國文：沒有、沒有，我先講，現在消保法只是針對之前的其他消費爭議行為，我現在說的這個東西……"],["彭主任委員金隆：是貸後管理的部分……"],["郭委員國文：影響到整個房地產的政策，影響到總體信用管制，影響到公平正義，也影響中小建商的權益嘛！"],["彭主任委員金隆：這些我們都已經有關心到……"],["郭委員國文：您給我一個時間點，你什麼時候要處理？"],["彭主任委員金隆：我們現在就在處理中……"],["郭委員國文：針對薯條三土匪！"],["彭主任委員金隆：我們現在正在處理中，我再跟委員說明。"],["郭委員國文：要多久？"],["彭主任委員金隆：我想應該差不多一個月之內可以給委員完整的報告跟說明。"],["郭委員國文：好。"],["彭主任委員金隆：謝謝委員。"],["主席：謝謝郭國文委員，處理土匪的事情其實也是要快。","接著請李彥秀委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":256,"meet_id":"委員會-11-2-20-8","speakers":["賴惠員","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","李彥秀","李坤城","王鴻薇","羅明才","顏寬恒","黃珊珊","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","陳玉珍","黃國昌","洪孟楷","羅廷瑋","楊瓊瓔","麥玉珍","葉元之","王世堅","何欣純","邱志偉"],"page_start":173,"meetingDate":["2024-11-14"],"gazette_id":"11310002","agenda_lcidc_ids":["11310002_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第2會期財政委員會第8次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"一、邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍、財政部莊部長翠雲、金融監督管理委員會彭主任委員金隆就「美\n國新任總統的貿易政策對台灣經濟與金融穩定之可能影響與對策」進行專題報告，並備質詢；\n二、審查中華民國114年度中央政府總預算案：行政院歲入預算有關中央銀行股息紅利繳庫部分\n（僅詢答）；三、審查中華民國114年度中央政府總預算案附屬單位預算營業部分關於中央銀行\n（含中央造幣廠、中央印製廠）（僅詢答）","agenda_id":"11310002_00003"}}}