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{\"word\": \"怎\", \"start\": 428.679, \"end\": 428.919, \"score\": 0.915}, {\"word\": \"麼\"}, {\"word\": \"看\", \"start\": 428.919, \"end\": 429.459, \"score\": 0.963}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 429.459, \"end\": 431.3, \"score\": 0.941}, {\"word\": \"覺\"}, {\"word\": \"得\", \"start\": 431.3, \"end\": 431.52, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"美\", \"start\": 431.52, \"end\": 432.14, \"score\": 0.935}, {\"word\": \"國\"}, {\"word\": \"聯\"}, {\"word\": \"準\", \"start\": 432.14, \"end\": 433.841, \"score\": 0.948}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 433.841, \"end\": 434.121, \"score\": 0.983}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 434.121, \"end\": 434.382, \"score\": 0.955}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 434.382, \"end\": 434.602, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"自\", \"start\": 434.602, \"end\": 434.782, \"score\": 0.977}, {\"word\": \"己\", \"start\": 434.782, \"end\": 434.922, \"score\": 0.92}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 434.922, \"end\": 435.082, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"看\", \"start\": 435.082, \"end\": 435.362, \"score\": 0.982}, {\"word\": \"法\", \"start\": 435.362, \"end\": 436.022, \"score\": 0.9}, {\"word\": \"基\", \"start\": 436.022, \"end\": 436.182, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"本\", \"start\": 436.182, \"end\": 436.342, \"score\": 0.997}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 436.342, \"end\": 436.703, \"score\": 0.94}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 436.703, \"end\": 436.983, \"score\": 0.981}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 436.983, \"end\": 437.243, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"因\", \"start\": 437.243, \"end\": 438.183, \"score\": 0.949}, {\"word\": \"為\"}, {\"word\": \"聯\"}, {\"word\": \"準\", \"start\": 438.183, \"end\": 438.463, \"score\": 0.823}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"他\", \"start\": 438.463, \"end\": 438.623, \"score\": 0.965}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 438.623, \"end\": 438.984, \"score\": 0.93}, {\"word\": \"獨\"}, {\"word\": \"立\", \"start\": 438.984, \"end\": 439.144, \"score\": 0.941}, {\"word\": \"性\", \"start\": 439.144, 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{\"start\": 544.084, \"end\": 547.047, \"text\": \"不過我跟委員報告基本上現在我給你一個數據在2024年9月底的時候美國公債的殖利率是3.78\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"不\", \"start\": 544.084, \"end\": 544.204, \"score\": 0.969}, {\"word\": \"過\"}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 544.204, \"end\": 544.504, \"score\": 0.918}, {\"word\": \"跟\", \"start\": 544.504, \"end\": 544.664, \"score\": 0.875}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 544.664, \"end\": 544.805, \"score\": 0.829}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"報\"}, {\"word\": \"告\", \"start\": 544.805, \"end\": 544.965, \"score\": 0.873}, {\"word\": \"基\", \"start\": 544.965, \"end\": 545.085, \"score\": 0.836}, {\"word\": \"本\", \"start\": 545.085, \"end\": 545.205, \"score\": 0.833}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 545.205, \"end\": 545.285, \"score\": 0.743}, {\"word\": \"現\"}, {\"word\": \"在\", \"start\": 545.285, \"end\": 545.365, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 545.365, \"end\": 545.385, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"給\"}, {\"word\": \"你\", \"start\": 545.385, \"end\": 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\"它\", \"start\": 564.944, \"end\": 564.964, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"又\", \"start\": 564.964, \"end\": 565.184, \"score\": 0.909}, {\"word\": \"降\", \"start\": 565.184, \"end\": 565.404, \"score\": 0.909}, {\"word\": \"回\", \"start\": 565.404, \"end\": 565.524, \"score\": 0.832}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 565.524, \"end\": 565.544, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"4\"}, {\"word\": \".\"}, {\"word\": \"2\"}, {\"word\": \"2\"}]}, {\"start\": 574.476, \"end\": 591.722, \"text\": \"所以你的業務報告裡頭有特別提出來我沒有看到這樣的一個數據你在信心的喊話可是在很短的時間這個不到兩個月的時間這個震盪這麼大那如果像我們的受險業它的槓桿操作是這麼大的話那你覺得這樣子沒有風險嗎風險到處都是的\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"所\", \"start\": 574.476, \"end\": 574.656, \"score\": 0.996}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 574.656, \"end\": 575.156, \"score\": 0.905}, {\"word\": \"你\", \"start\": 575.156, \"end\": 575.276, \"score\": 0.972}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 575.276, \"end\": 575.977, \"score\": 0.915}, {\"word\": \"業\"}, {\"word\": \"務\"}, {\"word\": \"報\"}, {\"word\": \"告\", 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{\"word\": \"非\", \"start\": 657.838, \"end\": 657.979, \"score\": 0.669}, {\"word\": \"常\", \"start\": 657.979, \"end\": 658.199, \"score\": 0.841}, {\"word\": \"重\", \"start\": 658.199, \"end\": 658.439, \"score\": 0.837}, {\"word\": \"要\", \"start\": 658.439, \"end\": 658.599, \"score\": 0.878}, {\"word\": \"啊\", \"start\": 658.599, \"end\": 658.86, \"score\": 0.892}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"總\"}, {\"word\": \"裁\", \"start\": 658.86, \"end\": 659.02, \"score\": 0.742}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"主\", \"start\": 659.02, \"end\": 659.04, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"席\", \"start\": 659.04, \"end\": 659.06, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:00,391 --> 00:00:02,280\n謝謝主席有請那個總裁總裁請\n\n2\n00:00:08,633 --> 00:00:37,084\n總裁早安賴委員早先跟你討論一個時事的議題是我想你應該也知道賴總統是一個超級棒球迷是其實在去年11月底就是台灣的棒球隊拿下世界的12強的冠軍其實現在回想起來還是非常的感動當時就有委員提到了是不是因為進入了12強我們要不要發行紀念幣\n\n3\n00:00:38,164 --> 00:00:57,873\n還是紀念鈔當然這個就是改版的新台幣那這個我們知道就是說如果是改版的新台幣的話他可能牽涉到了很多就是不管是我們的這個合作社的ATM還是點鈔機還有所有自動那個\n\n4\n00:00:59,033 --> 00:01:13,960\n自動銷售的一個銷售機的一個辨識系統那這個評估你們有沒有去評估要花費多少錢那當然是要費很多的錢那總裁目前有沒有這樣的一個計畫會不會做這樣的一個計畫我想就是說\n\n5\n00:01:19,802 --> 00:01:37,725\n紀念碧紀念超的這個問題我們還是在收集各方的意見如果你讓他明年打進去他現在已經拿到經典賽的資格了明年萬一不小心又打了一個世界冠軍的話\n\n6\n00:01:38,366 --> 00:01:56,646\n那我想這個是一個值得紀念的那就是說我們央行有沒有什麼樣的一個機會所以用紀念幣或是紀念鈔的一個方式也許會比較好啦紀念幣還是紀念鈔因為牽扯的層面不會那麼大對對對好那總裁有沒有這樣的一個規劃\n\n7\n00:01:57,927 --> 00:02:01,791\n我們就拉回來就是當今的一個經濟上的一個議題全球的經濟議題那我們當然知道就是說去年11月我們曾經邀請你來就是說\n\n8\n00:02:16,627 --> 00:02:28,759\n一起做專案的一個報告那這裡要請教總裁就是說2025年經濟的一個情勢你怎麼看這怎麼看其實是非常重要的當然我們知道就是說\n\n9\n00:02:30,543 --> 00:02:49,001\n川普掀起了一個全世界的經濟貿易戰事實上我們不管是在美國關稅的調整的生效甚至美國的以亞還亞川普刻了加拿大的綱領\n\n10\n00:02:51,423 --> 00:03:18,584\n那個關稅那甚至歐盟也跟他對幹了就是說他也是講他就是說他要緩制的一個措施那其實這麼多這麼多就是說他不斷的一直宣布不管是關稅的一個調整還是說關稅的一個那個手段這個我們都看到了4月2號他即將就是說暫停所有符合美墨加協定的\n\n11\n00:03:19,484 --> 00:03:42,094\n這個對於就是加拿大跟墨西哥的關稅課25%那它也就是說在增加對中國的10加10就等於是20%的一個關稅那你怎麼來看待就是說台積電滬美擴大投資這個對於4月2號即將那個到來的全球的一個對等關稅你怎麼看它呢\n\n12\n00:03:43,899 --> 00:03:47,285\n對等關稅我剛剛也是在講就是說對等關稅對台灣來講的話我們是比較沒有多大問題\n\n13\n00:03:53,837 --> 00:04:21,064\n那你覺得對台灣是好的因為剛剛我就說我用WTO我剛剛也在講就WTO的一個資料就是說我們全部的產品就是說美國跟台灣的關稅來比較的話用貿易的加權平均全部的商品的話我們的關稅是比它低的但是我們農產品的關稅是比它高的\n\n14\n00:04:21,823 --> 00:04:46,286\n不過總裁我之前的幾位委員一直在提醒你就是美國的貿易順差這個累積下來這個接近700億的美元這個是一個非常嚴肅的一個問題你一定要有一個因應的一個措施這個因應的措施其實我相信川普不會放過我們的我們是前六名\n\n15\n00:04:47,447 --> 00:05:04,977\n雖然就是說我們是排序第六名的話可是他你想想看這個影響這麼大他沒賺他的錢他都要修理人家了我們賺他這麼多錢基本上我們對美國的順差主要是什麼\n\n16\n00:05:05,777 --> 00:05:27,428\n主要的是資通訊所以他一直要你的台積電所有的資通訊那你有什麼比較好的方式呢資通訊第一個他需要這個產品而且是他非常需要的\n\n17\n00:05:28,288 --> 00:05:43,944\n所以這個跟那個不公平的貿易這個好像我總覺得是他需要人的你是這樣的一個看法那如果我最關心的是那個農產品那你美國現在也盯上了印度跟日本的進口的那個農產品的一個關稅了\n\n18\n00:05:45,185 --> 00:06:13,856\n那如果台灣也相對的就是遇到的相同的一個挑戰那我們的農民會受到了很大的一個衝擊那這樣子的話你有沒有什麼因應的一個方式然後因為我們都知道就是說那個沒關係你就是進一步的一個詳細的分析一個月內提出給我一個書面的一個回應接著我還是想再跟那個就是總裁再討論一下這個百變的一個川普\n\n19\n00:06:14,696 --> 00:06:37,747\n其實他是不是在製造一個一場經濟上的一個衰退顯然是喔看起來是喔他在接受那個胡適的一個專訪的時候他也在預告喔他在預告說美國其實就是以退為進我們他們即將在面臨到一個經濟的一個衰退的可能性可是這樣美股就是股票就應聲就是下跌所以他\n\n20\n00:06:38,907 --> 00:07:05,978\n趕快又在白宮又講了又一個信心喊話說美國不會陷入衰退這個我們都看得出來他左右手的一個緩護的一個操作那在這裡我想問一下就是說如果川普現在掀起的一個全球的貿易戰和相關的一個政策是不是會壓迫到那個就是聯準會的一個降息那聯準會有沒有可能妥協\n\n21\n00:07:06,798 --> 00:07:19,444\n最快會是什麼時候總裁你怎麼看我覺得美國聯準會有他的自己的看法基本上他是因為聯準會他是獨立性的\n\n22\n00:07:20,512 --> 00:07:46,082\n所以你看看就是說川普說他會下來就是說他會那個recession就是說會衰退但是呢那個Fed的主席Power他就說事實上呢目前美國的經濟還是很有韌性的他的一個勞動市場還是蠻健全的所以總裁你認為就是這個他不會這樣\n\n23\n00:07:47,282 --> 00:08:12,725\n聯準會不會降息所以這個也不是說它不會降息因為事實上在去年我再接著就是告訴你就是請教你一個議題因為我們都知道說美債的殖利率持續的上升那就是說我們台灣的壽險公司其實跟我們的金融業擁有大量的一個美債這個對美就是台灣的金融系統\n\n24\n00:08:13,665 --> 00:08:37,503\n會在未來會有一個什麼樣的一個影響尤其就是說近期他可能是在半年還是一年有沒有這個我們可預期啦可預期他應該是會有一個很重大的影響那你怎麼來看待這些問題我覺得我們的售險業基本上他們因為他長久他長久都是在這個市場上\n\n25\n00:08:39,304 --> 00:09:01,424\n所以我總覺得他們當然有輸有贏不過歐洲歐來講的話我總覺得我們受選人他還是表他的一個成效還是表現得非常的好還表現得非常好還算是好因為他長久都是在這個市場上的他長久都在這個市場上所以基本上可是長久沒有碰到一個這麼瘋狂的那個美國總統\n\n26\n00:09:04,084 --> 00:09:07,047\n不過我跟委員報告基本上現在我給你一個數據在2024年9月底的時候美國公債的殖利率是3.78\n\n27\n00:09:20,439 --> 00:09:25,544\n那最高點是4.79就將近升了1%但是最近已經到3月10號的時候它又降回來到4.22\n\n28\n00:09:34,476 --> 00:09:51,722\n所以你的業務報告裡頭有特別提出來我沒有看到這樣的一個數據你在信心的喊話可是在很短的時間這個不到兩個月的時間這個震盪這麼大那如果像我們的受險業它的槓桿操作是這麼大的話那你覺得這樣子沒有風險嗎風險到處都是的\n\n29\n00:10:03,387 --> 00:10:25,480\n所以你認為保險業的槓桿開的那麼大所以它的匯兌風險那麼高所以你認為沒有關係那如果就是說我們的資產大部分是美金那一旦台幣升值的話就是說保險業的資產它的保單負債大部分是台幣那這樣的一個狀況的話你認為沒有關係\n\n30\n00:10:29,463 --> 00:10:37,352\n我想這個不是說沒有關係,他們自己風險的控管他會做你這麼有信心,台幣會不會被美國強制的升值呢?不會啦,我的意思就是說新台幣的匯率還是由市場來決定的\n\n31\n00:10:48,786 --> 00:10:59,060\n是由市場決定的啦不是說中央銀行要讓它升就升要讓它貶就貶不是這樣市場決定沒有啦當然你的看法非常重要啊謝謝總裁謝謝主席謝謝\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n391\t2280\t謝謝主席有請那個總裁總裁請\n8633\t37084\t總裁早安賴委員早先跟你討論一個時事的議題是我想你應該也知道賴總統是一個超級棒球迷是其實在去年11月底就是台灣的棒球隊拿下世界的12強的冠軍其實現在回想起來還是非常的感動當時就有委員提到了是不是因為進入了12強我們要不要發行紀念幣\n38164\t57873\t還是紀念鈔當然這個就是改版的新台幣那這個我們知道就是說如果是改版的新台幣的話他可能牽涉到了很多就是不管是我們的這個合作社的ATM還是點鈔機還有所有自動那個\n59033\t73960\t自動銷售的一個銷售機的一個辨識系統那這個評估你們有沒有去評估要花費多少錢那當然是要費很多的錢那總裁目前有沒有這樣的一個計畫會不會做這樣的一個計畫我想就是說\n79802\t97725\t紀念碧 紀念超的這個問題我們還是在收集各方的意見如果你讓他明年打進去他現在已經拿到經典賽的資格了明年萬一不小心又打了一個世界冠軍的話\n98366\t116646\t那我想這個是一個值得紀念的那就是說我們央行有沒有什麼樣的一個機會所以用紀念幣或是紀念鈔的一個方式也許會比較好啦紀念幣還是紀念鈔因為牽扯的層面不會那麼大對對對好那總裁有沒有這樣的一個規劃\n117927\t121791\t我們就拉回來就是當今的一個經濟上的一個議題全球的經濟議題那我們當然知道就是說去年11月我們曾經邀請你來就是說\n136627\t148759\t一起做專案的一個報告那這裡要請教總裁就是說2025年經濟的一個情勢你怎麼看這怎麼看其實是非常重要的當然我們知道就是說\n150543\t169001\t川普掀起了一個全世界的經濟貿易戰事實上我們不管是在美國關稅的調整的生效甚至美國的以亞還亞川普刻了加拿大的綱領\n171423\t198584\t那個關稅那甚至歐盟也跟他對幹了就是說他也是講他就是說他要緩制的一個措施那其實這麼多這麼多就是說他不斷的一直宣布不管是關稅的一個調整還是說關稅的一個那個手段這個我們都看到了4月2號他即將就是說暫停所有符合美墨加協定的\n199484\t222094\t這個對於就是加拿大跟墨西哥的關稅課25%那它也就是說在增加對中國的10加10就等於是20%的一個關稅那你怎麼來看待就是說台積電滬美擴大投資這個對於4月2號即將那個到來的全球的一個對等關稅你怎麼看它呢\n223899\t227285\t對等關稅我剛剛也是在講就是說對等關稅對台灣來講的話我們是比較沒有多大問題\n233837\t261064\t那你覺得對台灣是好的因為剛剛我就說我用WTO我剛剛也在講就WTO的一個資料就是說我們全部的產品就是說美國跟台灣的關稅來比較的話用貿易的加權平均全部的商品的話我們的關稅是比它低的但是我們農產品的關稅是比它高的\n261823\t286286\t不過總裁我之前的幾位委員一直在提醒你就是美國的貿易順差這個累積下來這個接近700億的美元這個是一個非常嚴肅的一個問題你一定要有一個因應的一個措施這個因應的措施其實我相信川普不會放過我們的我們是前六名\n287447\t304977\t雖然就是說我們是排序第六名的話可是他你想想看這個影響這麼大他沒賺他的錢他都要修理人家了我們賺他這麼多錢基本上我們對美國的順差主要是什麼\n305777\t327428\t主要的是資通訊所以他一直要你的台積電所有的資通訊那你有什麼比較好的方式呢資通訊第一個他需要這個產品而且是他非常需要的\n328288\t343944\t所以這個跟那個不公平的貿易這個好像我總覺得是他需要人的你是這樣的一個看法那如果我最關心的是那個農產品那你美國現在也盯上了印度跟日本的進口的那個農產品的一個關稅了\n345185\t373856\t那如果台灣也相對的就是遇到的相同的一個挑戰那我們的農民會受到了很大的一個衝擊那這樣子的話你有沒有什麼因應的一個方式然後因為我們都知道就是說那個沒關係你就是進一步的一個詳細的分析一個月內提出給我一個書面的一個回應接著我還是想再跟那個就是總裁再討論一下這個百變的一個川普\n374696\t397747\t其實他是不是在製造一個一場經濟上的一個衰退顯然是喔看起來是喔他在接受那個胡適的一個專訪的時候他也在預告喔他在預告說美國其實就是以退為進我們他們即將在面臨到一個經濟的一個衰退的可能性可是這樣美股就是股票就應聲就是下跌所以他\n398907\t425978\t趕快又在白宮又講了又一個信心喊話說美國不會陷入衰退這個我們都看得出來他左右手的一個緩護的一個操作那在這裡我想問一下就是說如果川普現在掀起的一個全球的貿易戰和相關的一個政策是不是會壓迫到那個就是聯準會的一個降息那聯準會有沒有可能妥協\n426798\t439444\t最快會是什麼時候總裁你怎麼看我覺得美國聯準會有他的自己的看法基本上他是因為聯準會他是獨立性的\n440512\t466082\t所以你看看就是說川普說他會下來就是說他會那個recession就是說會衰退但是呢那個Fed的主席Power他就說事實上呢目前美國的經濟還是很有韌性的他的一個勞動市場還是蠻健全的所以總裁你認為就是這個他不會這樣\n467282\t492725\t聯準會不會降息所以這個也不是說它不會降息因為事實上在去年我再接著就是告訴你就是請教你一個議題因為我們都知道說美債的殖利率持續的上升那就是說我們台灣的壽險公司其實跟我們的金融業擁有大量的一個美債這個對美就是台灣的金融系統\n493665\t517503\t會在未來會有一個什麼樣的一個影響尤其就是說近期他可能是在半年還是一年有沒有這個我們可預期啦可預期他應該是會有一個很重大的影響那你怎麼來看待這些問題我覺得我們的售險業基本上他們因為他長久他長久都是在這個市場上\n519304\t541424\t所以我總覺得他們當然有輸有贏不過歐洲歐來講的話我總覺得我們受選人他還是表他的一個成效還是表現得非常的好還表現得非常好還算是好因為他長久都是在這個市場上的他長久都在這個市場上所以基本上可是長久沒有碰到一個這麼瘋狂的那個美國總統\n544084\t547047\t不過我跟委員報告基本上現在我給你一個數據在2024年9月底的時候美國公債的殖利率是3.78\n560439\t565544\t那最高點是4.79就將近升了1%但是最近已經到3月10號的時候它又降回來到4.22\n574476\t591722\t所以你的業務報告裡頭有特別提出來我沒有看到這樣的一個數據你在信心的喊話可是在很短的時間這個不到兩個月的時間這個震盪這麼大那如果像我們的受險業它的槓桿操作是這麼大的話那你覺得這樣子沒有風險嗎風險到處都是的\n603387\t625480\t所以你認為保險業的槓桿開的那麼大所以它的匯兌風險那麼高所以你認為沒有關係那如果就是說我們的資產大部分是美金那一旦台幣升值的話就是說保險業的資產它的保單負債大部分是台幣那這樣的一個狀況的話你認為沒有關係\n629463\t637352\t我想這個不是說沒有關係,他們自己風險的控管他會做你這麼有信心,台幣會不會被美國強制的升值呢?不會啦,我的意思就是說新台幣的匯率還是由市場來決定的\n648786\t659060\t是由市場決定的啦不是說中央銀行要讓它升就升要讓它貶就貶不是這樣市場決定沒有啦當然你的看法非常重要啊謝謝總裁謝謝主席謝謝\n","txt":"謝謝主席有請那個總裁總裁請\n總裁早安賴委員早先跟你討論一個時事的議題是我想你應該也知道賴總統是一個超級棒球迷是其實在去年11月底就是台灣的棒球隊拿下世界的12強的冠軍其實現在回想起來還是非常的感動當時就有委員提到了是不是因為進入了12強我們要不要發行紀念幣\n還是紀念鈔當然這個就是改版的新台幣那這個我們知道就是說如果是改版的新台幣的話他可能牽涉到了很多就是不管是我們的這個合作社的ATM還是點鈔機還有所有自動那個\n自動銷售的一個銷售機的一個辨識系統那這個評估你們有沒有去評估要花費多少錢那當然是要費很多的錢那總裁目前有沒有這樣的一個計畫會不會做這樣的一個計畫我想就是說\n紀念碧 紀念超的這個問題我們還是在收集各方的意見如果你讓他明年打進去他現在已經拿到經典賽的資格了明年萬一不小心又打了一個世界冠軍的話\n那我想這個是一個值得紀念的那就是說我們央行有沒有什麼樣的一個機會所以用紀念幣或是紀念鈔的一個方式也許會比較好啦紀念幣還是紀念鈔因為牽扯的層面不會那麼大對對對好那總裁有沒有這樣的一個規劃\n我們就拉回來就是當今的一個經濟上的一個議題全球的經濟議題那我們當然知道就是說去年11月我們曾經邀請你來就是說\n一起做專案的一個報告那這裡要請教總裁就是說2025年經濟的一個情勢你怎麼看這怎麼看其實是非常重要的當然我們知道就是說\n川普掀起了一個全世界的經濟貿易戰事實上我們不管是在美國關稅的調整的生效甚至美國的以亞還亞川普刻了加拿大的綱領\n那個關稅那甚至歐盟也跟他對幹了就是說他也是講他就是說他要緩制的一個措施那其實這麼多這麼多就是說他不斷的一直宣布不管是關稅的一個調整還是說關稅的一個那個手段這個我們都看到了4月2號他即將就是說暫停所有符合美墨加協定的\n這個對於就是加拿大跟墨西哥的關稅課25%那它也就是說在增加對中國的10加10就等於是20%的一個關稅那你怎麼來看待就是說台積電滬美擴大投資這個對於4月2號即將那個到來的全球的一個對等關稅你怎麼看它呢\n對等關稅我剛剛也是在講就是說對等關稅對台灣來講的話我們是比較沒有多大問題\n那你覺得對台灣是好的因為剛剛我就說我用WTO我剛剛也在講就WTO的一個資料就是說我們全部的產品就是說美國跟台灣的關稅來比較的話用貿易的加權平均全部的商品的話我們的關稅是比它低的但是我們農產品的關稅是比它高的\n不過總裁我之前的幾位委員一直在提醒你就是美國的貿易順差這個累積下來這個接近700億的美元這個是一個非常嚴肅的一個問題你一定要有一個因應的一個措施這個因應的措施其實我相信川普不會放過我們的我們是前六名\n雖然就是說我們是排序第六名的話可是他你想想看這個影響這麼大他沒賺他的錢他都要修理人家了我們賺他這麼多錢基本上我們對美國的順差主要是什麼\n主要的是資通訊所以他一直要你的台積電所有的資通訊那你有什麼比較好的方式呢資通訊第一個他需要這個產品而且是他非常需要的\n所以這個跟那個不公平的貿易這個好像我總覺得是他需要人的你是這樣的一個看法那如果我最關心的是那個農產品那你美國現在也盯上了印度跟日本的進口的那個農產品的一個關稅了\n那如果台灣也相對的就是遇到的相同的一個挑戰那我們的農民會受到了很大的一個衝擊那這樣子的話你有沒有什麼因應的一個方式然後因為我們都知道就是說那個沒關係你就是進一步的一個詳細的分析一個月內提出給我一個書面的一個回應接著我還是想再跟那個就是總裁再討論一下這個百變的一個川普\n其實他是不是在製造一個一場經濟上的一個衰退顯然是喔看起來是喔他在接受那個胡適的一個專訪的時候他也在預告喔他在預告說美國其實就是以退為進我們他們即將在面臨到一個經濟的一個衰退的可能性可是這樣美股就是股票就應聲就是下跌所以他\n趕快又在白宮又講了又一個信心喊話說美國不會陷入衰退這個我們都看得出來他左右手的一個緩護的一個操作那在這裡我想問一下就是說如果川普現在掀起的一個全球的貿易戰和相關的一個政策是不是會壓迫到那個就是聯準會的一個降息那聯準會有沒有可能妥協\n最快會是什麼時候總裁你怎麼看我覺得美國聯準會有他的自己的看法基本上他是因為聯準會他是獨立性的\n所以你看看就是說川普說他會下來就是說他會那個recession就是說會衰退但是呢那個Fed的主席Power他就說事實上呢目前美國的經濟還是很有韌性的他的一個勞動市場還是蠻健全的所以總裁你認為就是這個他不會這樣\n聯準會不會降息所以這個也不是說它不會降息因為事實上在去年我再接著就是告訴你就是請教你一個議題因為我們都知道說美債的殖利率持續的上升那就是說我們台灣的壽險公司其實跟我們的金融業擁有大量的一個美債這個對美就是台灣的金融系統\n會在未來會有一個什麼樣的一個影響尤其就是說近期他可能是在半年還是一年有沒有這個我們可預期啦可預期他應該是會有一個很重大的影響那你怎麼來看待這些問題我覺得我們的售險業基本上他們因為他長久他長久都是在這個市場上\n所以我總覺得他們當然有輸有贏不過歐洲歐來講的話我總覺得我們受選人他還是表他的一個成效還是表現得非常的好還表現得非常好還算是好因為他長久都是在這個市場上的他長久都在這個市場上所以基本上可是長久沒有碰到一個這麼瘋狂的那個美國總統\n不過我跟委員報告基本上現在我給你一個數據在2024年9月底的時候美國公債的殖利率是3.78\n那最高點是4.79就將近升了1%但是最近已經到3月10號的時候它又降回來到4.22\n所以你的業務報告裡頭有特別提出來我沒有看到這樣的一個數據你在信心的喊話可是在很短的時間這個不到兩個月的時間這個震盪這麼大那如果像我們的受險業它的槓桿操作是這麼大的話那你覺得這樣子沒有風險嗎風險到處都是的\n所以你認為保險業的槓桿開的那麼大所以它的匯兌風險那麼高所以你認為沒有關係那如果就是說我們的資產大部分是美金那一旦台幣升值的話就是說保險業的資產它的保單負債大部分是台幣那這樣的一個狀況的話你認為沒有關係\n我想這個不是說沒有關係,他們自己風險的控管他會做你這麼有信心,台幣會不會被美國強制的升值呢?不會啦,我的意思就是說新台幣的匯率還是由市場來決定的\n是由市場決定的啦不是說中央銀行要讓它升就升要讓它貶就貶不是這樣市場決定沒有啦當然你的看法非常重要啊謝謝總裁謝謝主席謝謝\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.391 --> 00:02.280\n謝謝主席有請那個總裁總裁請\n\n00:08.633 --> 00:37.084\n總裁早安賴委員早先跟你討論一個時事的議題是我想你應該也知道賴總統是一個超級棒球迷是其實在去年11月底就是台灣的棒球隊拿下世界的12強的冠軍其實現在回想起來還是非常的感動當時就有委員提到了是不是因為進入了12強我們要不要發行紀念幣\n\n00:38.164 --> 00:57.873\n還是紀念鈔當然這個就是改版的新台幣那這個我們知道就是說如果是改版的新台幣的話他可能牽涉到了很多就是不管是我們的這個合作社的ATM還是點鈔機還有所有自動那個\n\n00:59.033 --> 01:13.960\n自動銷售的一個銷售機的一個辨識系統那這個評估你們有沒有去評估要花費多少錢那當然是要費很多的錢那總裁目前有沒有這樣的一個計畫會不會做這樣的一個計畫我想就是說\n\n01:19.802 --> 01:37.725\n紀念碧紀念超的這個問題我們還是在收集各方的意見如果你讓他明年打進去他現在已經拿到經典賽的資格了明年萬一不小心又打了一個世界冠軍的話\n\n01:38.366 --> 01:56.646\n那我想這個是一個值得紀念的那就是說我們央行有沒有什麼樣的一個機會所以用紀念幣或是紀念鈔的一個方式也許會比較好啦紀念幣還是紀念鈔因為牽扯的層面不會那麼大對對對好那總裁有沒有這樣的一個規劃\n\n01:57.927 --> 02:01.791\n我們就拉回來就是當今的一個經濟上的一個議題全球的經濟議題那我們當然知道就是說去年11月我們曾經邀請你來就是說\n\n02:16.627 --> 02:28.759\n一起做專案的一個報告那這裡要請教總裁就是說2025年經濟的一個情勢你怎麼看這怎麼看其實是非常重要的當然我們知道就是說\n\n02:30.543 --> 02:49.001\n川普掀起了一個全世界的經濟貿易戰事實上我們不管是在美國關稅的調整的生效甚至美國的以亞還亞川普刻了加拿大的綱領\n\n02:51.423 --> 03:18.584\n那個關稅那甚至歐盟也跟他對幹了就是說他也是講他就是說他要緩制的一個措施那其實這麼多這麼多就是說他不斷的一直宣布不管是關稅的一個調整還是說關稅的一個那個手段這個我們都看到了4月2號他即將就是說暫停所有符合美墨加協定的\n\n03:19.484 --> 03:42.094\n這個對於就是加拿大跟墨西哥的關稅課25%那它也就是說在增加對中國的10加10就等於是20%的一個關稅那你怎麼來看待就是說台積電滬美擴大投資這個對於4月2號即將那個到來的全球的一個對等關稅你怎麼看它呢\n\n03:43.899 --> 03:47.285\n對等關稅我剛剛也是在講就是說對等關稅對台灣來講的話我們是比較沒有多大問題\n\n03:53.837 --> 04:21.064\n那你覺得對台灣是好的因為剛剛我就說我用WTO我剛剛也在講就WTO的一個資料就是說我們全部的產品就是說美國跟台灣的關稅來比較的話用貿易的加權平均全部的商品的話我們的關稅是比它低的但是我們農產品的關稅是比它高的\n\n04:21.823 --> 04:46.286\n不過總裁我之前的幾位委員一直在提醒你就是美國的貿易順差這個累積下來這個接近700億的美元這個是一個非常嚴肅的一個問題你一定要有一個因應的一個措施這個因應的措施其實我相信川普不會放過我們的我們是前六名\n\n04:47.447 --> 05:04.977\n雖然就是說我們是排序第六名的話可是他你想想看這個影響這麼大他沒賺他的錢他都要修理人家了我們賺他這麼多錢基本上我們對美國的順差主要是什麼\n\n05:05.777 --> 05:27.428\n主要的是資通訊所以他一直要你的台積電所有的資通訊那你有什麼比較好的方式呢資通訊第一個他需要這個產品而且是他非常需要的\n\n05:28.288 --> 05:43.944\n所以這個跟那個不公平的貿易這個好像我總覺得是他需要人的你是這樣的一個看法那如果我最關心的是那個農產品那你美國現在也盯上了印度跟日本的進口的那個農產品的一個關稅了\n\n05:45.185 --> 06:13.856\n那如果台灣也相對的就是遇到的相同的一個挑戰那我們的農民會受到了很大的一個衝擊那這樣子的話你有沒有什麼因應的一個方式然後因為我們都知道就是說那個沒關係你就是進一步的一個詳細的分析一個月內提出給我一個書面的一個回應接著我還是想再跟那個就是總裁再討論一下這個百變的一個川普\n\n06:14.696 --> 06:37.747\n其實他是不是在製造一個一場經濟上的一個衰退顯然是喔看起來是喔他在接受那個胡適的一個專訪的時候他也在預告喔他在預告說美國其實就是以退為進我們他們即將在面臨到一個經濟的一個衰退的可能性可是這樣美股就是股票就應聲就是下跌所以他\n\n06:38.907 --> 07:05.978\n趕快又在白宮又講了又一個信心喊話說美國不會陷入衰退這個我們都看得出來他左右手的一個緩護的一個操作那在這裡我想問一下就是說如果川普現在掀起的一個全球的貿易戰和相關的一個政策是不是會壓迫到那個就是聯準會的一個降息那聯準會有沒有可能妥協\n\n07:06.798 --> 07:19.444\n最快會是什麼時候總裁你怎麼看我覺得美國聯準會有他的自己的看法基本上他是因為聯準會他是獨立性的\n\n07:20.512 --> 07:46.082\n所以你看看就是說川普說他會下來就是說他會那個recession就是說會衰退但是呢那個Fed的主席Power他就說事實上呢目前美國的經濟還是很有韌性的他的一個勞動市場還是蠻健全的所以總裁你認為就是這個他不會這樣\n\n07:47.282 --> 08:12.725\n聯準會不會降息所以這個也不是說它不會降息因為事實上在去年我再接著就是告訴你就是請教你一個議題因為我們都知道說美債的殖利率持續的上升那就是說我們台灣的壽險公司其實跟我們的金融業擁有大量的一個美債這個對美就是台灣的金融系統\n\n08:13.665 --> 08:37.503\n會在未來會有一個什麼樣的一個影響尤其就是說近期他可能是在半年還是一年有沒有這個我們可預期啦可預期他應該是會有一個很重大的影響那你怎麼來看待這些問題我覺得我們的售險業基本上他們因為他長久他長久都是在這個市場上\n\n08:39.304 --> 09:01.424\n所以我總覺得他們當然有輸有贏不過歐洲歐來講的話我總覺得我們受選人他還是表他的一個成效還是表現得非常的好還表現得非常好還算是好因為他長久都是在這個市場上的他長久都在這個市場上所以基本上可是長久沒有碰到一個這麼瘋狂的那個美國總統\n\n09:04.084 --> 09:07.047\n不過我跟委員報告基本上現在我給你一個數據在2024年9月底的時候美國公債的殖利率是3.78\n\n09:20.439 --> 09:25.544\n那最高點是4.79就將近升了1%但是最近已經到3月10號的時候它又降回來到4.22\n\n09:34.476 --> 09:51.722\n所以你的業務報告裡頭有特別提出來我沒有看到這樣的一個數據你在信心的喊話可是在很短的時間這個不到兩個月的時間這個震盪這麼大那如果像我們的受險業它的槓桿操作是這麼大的話那你覺得這樣子沒有風險嗎風險到處都是的\n\n10:03.387 --> 10:25.480\n所以你認為保險業的槓桿開的那麼大所以它的匯兌風險那麼高所以你認為沒有關係那如果就是說我們的資產大部分是美金那一旦台幣升值的話就是說保險業的資產它的保單負債大部分是台幣那這樣的一個狀況的話你認為沒有關係\n\n10:29.463 --> 10:37.352\n我想這個不是說沒有關係,他們自己風險的控管他會做你這麼有信心,台幣會不會被美國強制的升值呢?不會啦,我的意思就是說新台幣的匯率還是由市場來決定的\n\n10:48.786 --> 10:59.060\n是由市場決定的啦不是說中央銀行要讓它升就升要讓它貶就貶不是這樣市場決定沒有啦當然你的看法非常重要啊謝謝總裁謝謝主席謝謝\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.391,"end":2.28,"text":"謝謝主席有請那個總裁總裁請"},{"start":8.633,"end":37.084,"text":"總裁早安賴委員早先跟你討論一個時事的議題是我想你應該也知道賴總統是一個超級棒球迷是其實在去年11月底就是台灣的棒球隊拿下世界的12強的冠軍其實現在回想起來還是非常的感動當時就有委員提到了是不是因為進入了12強我們要不要發行紀念幣"},{"start":38.164,"end":57.873,"text":"還是紀念鈔當然這個就是改版的新台幣那這個我們知道就是說如果是改版的新台幣的話他可能牽涉到了很多就是不管是我們的這個合作社的ATM還是點鈔機還有所有自動那個"},{"start":59.033,"end":73.96,"text":"自動銷售的一個銷售機的一個辨識系統那這個評估你們有沒有去評估要花費多少錢那當然是要費很多的錢那總裁目前有沒有這樣的一個計畫會不會做這樣的一個計畫我想就是說"},{"start":79.802,"end":97.725,"text":"紀念碧 紀念超的這個問題我們還是在收集各方的意見如果你讓他明年打進去他現在已經拿到經典賽的資格了明年萬一不小心又打了一個世界冠軍的話"},{"start":98.366,"end":116.646,"text":"那我想這個是一個值得紀念的那就是說我們央行有沒有什麼樣的一個機會所以用紀念幣或是紀念鈔的一個方式也許會比較好啦紀念幣還是紀念鈔因為牽扯的層面不會那麼大對對對好那總裁有沒有這樣的一個規劃"},{"start":117.927,"end":121.791,"text":"我們就拉回來就是當今的一個經濟上的一個議題全球的經濟議題那我們當然知道就是說去年11月我們曾經邀請你來就是說"},{"start":136.627,"end":148.759,"text":"一起做專案的一個報告那這裡要請教總裁就是說2025年經濟的一個情勢你怎麼看這怎麼看其實是非常重要的當然我們知道就是說"},{"start":150.543,"end":169.001,"text":"川普掀起了一個全世界的經濟貿易戰事實上我們不管是在美國關稅的調整的生效甚至美國的以亞還亞川普刻了加拿大的綱領"},{"start":171.423,"end":198.584,"text":"那個關稅那甚至歐盟也跟他對幹了就是說他也是講他就是說他要緩制的一個措施那其實這麼多這麼多就是說他不斷的一直宣布不管是關稅的一個調整還是說關稅的一個那個手段這個我們都看到了4月2號他即將就是說暫停所有符合美墨加協定的"},{"start":199.484,"end":222.094,"text":"這個對於就是加拿大跟墨西哥的關稅課25%那它也就是說在增加對中國的10加10就等於是20%的一個關稅那你怎麼來看待就是說台積電滬美擴大投資這個對於4月2號即將那個到來的全球的一個對等關稅你怎麼看它呢"},{"start":223.899,"end":227.285,"text":"對等關稅我剛剛也是在講就是說對等關稅對台灣來講的話我們是比較沒有多大問題"},{"start":233.837,"end":261.064,"text":"那你覺得對台灣是好的因為剛剛我就說我用WTO我剛剛也在講就WTO的一個資料就是說我們全部的產品就是說美國跟台灣的關稅來比較的話用貿易的加權平均全部的商品的話我們的關稅是比它低的但是我們農產品的關稅是比它高的"},{"start":261.823,"end":286.286,"text":"不過總裁我之前的幾位委員一直在提醒你就是美國的貿易順差這個累積下來這個接近700億的美元這個是一個非常嚴肅的一個問題你一定要有一個因應的一個措施這個因應的措施其實我相信川普不會放過我們的我們是前六名"},{"start":287.447,"end":304.977,"text":"雖然就是說我們是排序第六名的話可是他你想想看這個影響這麼大他沒賺他的錢他都要修理人家了我們賺他這麼多錢基本上我們對美國的順差主要是什麼"},{"start":305.777,"end":327.428,"text":"主要的是資通訊所以他一直要你的台積電所有的資通訊那你有什麼比較好的方式呢資通訊第一個他需要這個產品而且是他非常需要的"},{"start":328.288,"end":343.944,"text":"所以這個跟那個不公平的貿易這個好像我總覺得是他需要人的你是這樣的一個看法那如果我最關心的是那個農產品那你美國現在也盯上了印度跟日本的進口的那個農產品的一個關稅了"},{"start":345.185,"end":373.856,"text":"那如果台灣也相對的就是遇到的相同的一個挑戰那我們的農民會受到了很大的一個衝擊那這樣子的話你有沒有什麼因應的一個方式然後因為我們都知道就是說那個沒關係你就是進一步的一個詳細的分析一個月內提出給我一個書面的一個回應接著我還是想再跟那個就是總裁再討論一下這個百變的一個川普"},{"start":374.696,"end":397.747,"text":"其實他是不是在製造一個一場經濟上的一個衰退顯然是喔看起來是喔他在接受那個胡適的一個專訪的時候他也在預告喔他在預告說美國其實就是以退為進我們他們即將在面臨到一個經濟的一個衰退的可能性可是這樣美股就是股票就應聲就是下跌所以他"},{"start":398.907,"end":425.978,"text":"趕快又在白宮又講了又一個信心喊話說美國不會陷入衰退這個我們都看得出來他左右手的一個緩護的一個操作那在這裡我想問一下就是說如果川普現在掀起的一個全球的貿易戰和相關的一個政策是不是會壓迫到那個就是聯準會的一個降息那聯準會有沒有可能妥協"},{"start":426.798,"end":439.444,"text":"最快會是什麼時候總裁你怎麼看我覺得美國聯準會有他的自己的看法基本上他是因為聯準會他是獨立性的"},{"start":440.512,"end":466.082,"text":"所以你看看就是說川普說他會下來就是說他會那個recession就是說會衰退但是呢那個Fed的主席Power他就說事實上呢目前美國的經濟還是很有韌性的他的一個勞動市場還是蠻健全的所以總裁你認為就是這個他不會這樣"},{"start":467.282,"end":492.725,"text":"聯準會不會降息所以這個也不是說它不會降息因為事實上在去年我再接著就是告訴你就是請教你一個議題因為我們都知道說美債的殖利率持續的上升那就是說我們台灣的壽險公司其實跟我們的金融業擁有大量的一個美債這個對美就是台灣的金融系統"},{"start":493.665,"end":517.503,"text":"會在未來會有一個什麼樣的一個影響尤其就是說近期他可能是在半年還是一年有沒有這個我們可預期啦可預期他應該是會有一個很重大的影響那你怎麼來看待這些問題我覺得我們的售險業基本上他們因為他長久他長久都是在這個市場上"},{"start":519.304,"end":541.424,"text":"所以我總覺得他們當然有輸有贏不過歐洲歐來講的話我總覺得我們受選人他還是表他的一個成效還是表現得非常的好還表現得非常好還算是好因為他長久都是在這個市場上的他長久都在這個市場上所以基本上可是長久沒有碰到一個這麼瘋狂的那個美國總統"},{"start":544.084,"end":547.047,"text":"不過我跟委員報告基本上現在我給你一個數據在2024年9月底的時候美國公債的殖利率是3.78"},{"start":560.439,"end":565.544,"text":"那最高點是4.79就將近升了1%但是最近已經到3月10號的時候它又降回來到4.22"},{"start":574.476,"end":591.722,"text":"所以你的業務報告裡頭有特別提出來我沒有看到這樣的一個數據你在信心的喊話可是在很短的時間這個不到兩個月的時間這個震盪這麼大那如果像我們的受險業它的槓桿操作是這麼大的話那你覺得這樣子沒有風險嗎風險到處都是的"},{"start":603.387,"end":625.48,"text":"所以你認為保險業的槓桿開的那麼大所以它的匯兌風險那麼高所以你認為沒有關係那如果就是說我們的資產大部分是美金那一旦台幣升值的話就是說保險業的資產它的保單負債大部分是台幣那這樣的一個狀況的話你認為沒有關係"},{"start":629.463,"end":637.352,"text":"我想這個不是說沒有關係,他們自己風險的控管他會做你這麼有信心,台幣會不會被美國強制的升值呢?不會啦,我的意思就是說新台幣的匯率還是由市場來決定的"},{"start":648.786,"end":659.06,"text":"是由市場決定的啦不是說中央銀行要讓它升就升要讓它貶就貶不是這樣市場決定沒有啦當然你的看法非常重要啊謝謝總裁謝謝主席謝謝"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":458,"blocks":[["賴委員惠員：（10時14分）謝謝主席，有請總裁。"],["主席：總裁請。"],["賴委員惠員：總裁早安。"],["楊總裁金龍：賴委員早。"],["賴委員惠員：先跟你討論一個時事的議題。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["賴委員惠員：我想你應該也知道賴總統是一個超級棒球迷。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["賴委員惠員：其實在去年11月底，臺灣的棒球隊拿下世界12強的冠軍，現在回想起來還是非常的感動，那當時就有委員提到是不是因為進入了12強，我們要不要發行紀念幣還是紀念鈔，當然這個就是改版的新臺幣。我們知道如果是改版的新臺幣的話，它可能牽涉到了很多，不管是我們合作社的ATM還是點鈔機，還有所有自動銷售機的辨識系統，那你們有沒有去評估要花費多少錢？那當然是要很多的錢啦！那總裁目前有沒有這樣的一個計畫？會不會做這樣的一個計畫？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想紀念幣、紀念鈔的這個問題，我們還是在蒐集各方的意見……"],["賴委員惠員：還在蒐集各方的意見？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，我們還是……"],["賴委員惠員：那如果你讓他明年打進去……他現在已經拿到經典賽的資格了，那明年萬一不小心又打了一個世界冠軍的話，我想這個是一個值得紀念的……"],["楊總裁金龍：是啦！所以用紀念……"],["賴委員惠員：就是說我們央行有沒有什麼樣的一個機會？"],["楊總裁金龍：所以用紀念幣或是紀念鈔的方式，也許會比較好啦！"],["賴委員惠員：紀念幣還是紀念鈔，因為它牽扯的層面不會那麼大。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["賴委員惠員：好，總裁，有沒有這樣的一個規劃？"],["楊總裁金龍：是啊！有啊！我們有這樣的規劃。"],["賴委員惠員：之前就在做了？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，我們正在規劃當中。"],["賴委員惠員：好，那我們就拉回來，就是當今一個經濟上的議題，全球的經濟議題。我們當然知道，去年11月我們曾經邀請你來一起做專案報告，那這裡要請教總裁，2025年經濟的情勢你怎麼看？這怎麼看其實是非常重要的，當然我們知道川普掀起了一個全世界的經濟貿易戰，事實上不管是在美國關稅調整的生效，甚至美國的以牙還牙，就是川普課了加拿大的鋼鋁關稅，甚至歐盟也跟他對幹了，就是他要反制的措施，其實這麼多就是說他不斷地一直宣布，不管是關稅的調整，還是說關稅的手段，這個我們都看到了，4月2號他即將暫停所有符合美墨加協定的……就是加拿大跟墨西哥的關稅課25%，那他也增加對中國的10加10，就等於是20%的關稅。那你怎麼來看待台積電赴美擴大投資，這個對於4月2號即將到來的全球對等關稅，你怎麼看它呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：對等關稅我剛剛也是在講，就是說對等關稅對臺灣來講的話，我們是比較沒有多大問題。"],["賴委員惠員：那你覺得對臺灣是好的？不受影響？影響不大？"],["楊總裁金龍：因為我剛剛也在講就WTO的資料，我們全部的產品……就是說美國跟臺灣的關稅來比較的話，用貿易的加權平均全部商品的話，我們的關稅是比他低的，但是我們農產品的關稅是比他高的。"],["賴委員惠員：不過，總裁，我之前的幾位委員一直在提醒你，就是我國對美國的貿易順差。"],["楊總裁金龍：是啦！"],["賴委員惠員：這個累積下來接近700億的美元。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，沒有錯啦！"],["賴委員惠員：這個是非常嚴肅的一個問題，你一定要有一個因應的措施。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["賴委員惠員：這個因應的措施……其實我相信川普不會放過我們的，我們是前六名耶！雖然我們是排序第六名，可是你想想看這個影響這麼大，沒賺他的錢，他都要修理人家了，我們賺他這麼多錢……"],["楊總裁金龍：不過我跟委員報告，基本上我們對美國的順差主要是什麼？主要的是資通訊。"],["賴委員惠員：資通訊？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，資通訊，我們對他的順差……"],["賴委員惠員：所以嘛！所以他一直要你的台積電，你所有的……"],["楊總裁金龍：對嘛！所以資通訊……"],["賴委員惠員：那你有什麼比較好的方式呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：所以第一個就是說，他需要這個產品，而且是他非常需要的，所以這個跟不公平的貿易好像……我總覺得是他需要我們的啊！"],["賴委員惠員：總裁，你是這樣的一個看法，但我最關心的農產品，美國現在也盯上了印度跟日本的進口農產品關稅，如果臺灣也相對遇到了相同的挑戰，那我們的農民會受到很大的衝擊，那這樣子的話，你有沒有什麼因應的方式？因為我們都知道，就是說……"],["楊總裁金龍：我覺得……"],["賴委員惠員：沒關係，你就是進一步的一個詳細的分析，請一個月內給我一個書面的回應。"],["楊總裁金龍：好。"],["賴委員惠員：接著我還是想再跟總裁討論一下百變的川普，其實他是不是在製造一場經濟上的衰退？顯然是喔！看起來是喔！他在接受福斯專訪的時候，他也在預告喔！他也在預告說美國其實就是以退為進，他們即將面臨到一個經濟衰退的可能性，結果美國股票就應聲下跌，所以他趕快又在白宮講了一個信心喊話，說美國不會陷入衰退，這個我們都看得出來他左右手的一個反覆操作。那在這裡我想問一下就是說，川普現在掀起的全球貿易戰和相關的政策，是不是會壓迫聯準會降息？那聯準會有沒有可能妥協？最快會是什麼時候？總裁，你怎麼看？"],["楊總裁金龍：我覺得美國聯準會有它自己的看法，因為基本上聯準會它是獨立性的，所以你看看，川普說它會下來，就是說它會recession，就是說會衰退，但是Fed的主席Powell他就說，事實上目前美國的經濟還是很有韌性的，它的勞動市場還是滿健全的。"],["賴委員惠員：所以總裁你認為聯準會不會降息？"],["楊總裁金龍：不，這個也不是說它不會降息，因為事實上在去年……"],["賴委員惠員：好，你認為它不會降息。總裁，那我再接著請教你一個議題，因為我們都知道美債的殖利率持續上升，我們臺灣的壽險公司跟金融業擁有大量的美債，臺灣的金融系統在未來會有一個什麼樣的影響？尤其是近期，可能是在半年還是一年，有沒有我們可預期它應該是會有一個很重大的影響，那你怎麼來看待這些問題？"],["楊總裁金龍：我覺得我們的壽險業，基本上因為它長久都是在這個市場上，所以我總覺得他們……當然有輸有贏，不過overall來講的話，我總覺得我們壽險業，它的成效還是表現得非常好。"],["賴委員惠員：還表現得非常好？"],["楊總裁金龍：還算是好，因為它長久都是在這個市場上的，它長久都在這個市場上，所以基本上……"],["賴委員惠員：可是長久沒有碰到一個這麼瘋狂的美國總統啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：不過……"],["賴委員惠員：這麼劇烈的波動，你……"],["楊總裁金龍：不過我跟委員報告，基本上現在我給你一個數據，在2024年9月底的時候，美國公債的殖利率是3.78%，最高點4.79%，就將近升了1%，但是最近3月10號的時候又降回來到4.22%，所以它是一個correction。"],["賴委員惠員：所以你的業務報告裡頭有特別提出來嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：是、是、是、是。"],["賴委員惠員：我們有看到這樣的一個數據嘛！你在信心喊話嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：對啦！是、是、是。"],["賴委員惠員：可是這在很短的時間，不到2個月的時間震盪這麼大……"],["楊總裁金龍：是啦。"],["賴委員惠員：如果……"],["楊總裁金龍：所以也就是說……"],["賴委員惠員：如果像我們的壽險業的槓桿操作是這麼大的話，你覺得這樣子沒有風險嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：風險到處都是啦，你不要就說是那個什麼所有包括投資人……"],["賴委員惠員：所以你認為保險業的槓桿開得那麼大，所以它的匯兌風險那麼高，你認為沒有關係？就是說如果我們的資產大部分是美金，那一旦臺幣升值的話，就是說保險業的資產，它的保單負債大部分是臺幣這樣的一個狀況的話，你認為沒有關係？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想不是說沒有關係，他們自己風險的控管它會做……"],["賴委員惠員：你這麼有信心？那臺幣會不會被美國強制升值呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：不會……"],["賴委員惠員：不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：不是，我的意思是新臺幣的匯率還是由市場來決定的啦，不是說中央銀行要它升就升，要讓它貶就貶，不是這樣，市場決定匯率。"],["賴委員惠員：沒有啦，當然你的看法非常重要啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：嗯。"],["賴委員惠員：謝謝總裁、謝謝主席。"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝、謝謝。"],["主席：好，謝謝賴惠員的質詢。","下一位請李彥秀委員質詢，請。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":226,"meet_id":"委員會-11-3-20-2","speakers":["賴士葆","林德福","吳秉叡","顏寬恒","郭國文","賴惠員","李彥秀","鍾佳濱","羅明才","黃珊珊","林思銘","李坤城","王世堅","陳玉珍","王鴻薇","邱志偉","陳冠廷","李柏毅"],"page_start":169,"meetingDate":["2025-03-13"],"gazette_id":"1142701","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1142701_00005"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質\n詢","agenda_id":"1142701_00004"}}}