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\"委\", \"start\": 721.898, \"end\": 721.918, \"score\": 0.936}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"質\"}, {\"word\": \"詢\"}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:01,192 --> 00:00:04,755\n是不是來請軍管會彭主委來彭主委請早安\n\n2\n00:00:08,919 --> 00:00:32,004\n主委你好主委我請教因為你曾說今年的股市主要變數包括川普上任影響國際金融市場甚大甚至於多項變數包括美國聯準會的利率政策其對股市有影響金管會都會去關注主委\n\n3\n00:00:32,944 --> 00:00:51,184\n台股由年初的23900多點的高點到今天大盤向下來回震盪2000多點那請問主委你認為這是是不是川普關稅戰導致台股大盤提前來反映整個空頭的一個行情\n\n4\n00:00:51,664 --> 00:01:11,417\n是謝謝委員的這個詢問我想剛剛也提到其實金管會一向針對國際的情勢都有寄予高度的關注剛才特別是美國的相關政策對我們的資本市場的影響剛才陳儒剛才委員所詢問的我們也有關注到比如說這個美國政府在\n\n5\n00:01:12,718 --> 00:01:38,651\n幾次對於關稅這個政策的這些的宣布以後對台灣資本市場的影響我們也看到其實像這個影響是有但是相對的台股還是表現出相對的韌性那很快的就做一個回應然後又恢復到一個比較穩定的狀態這種持續會密切關注所以說那個以主委的觀察是認為說還是非常有信心\n\n6\n00:01:39,771 --> 00:01:58,758\n當然我覺得過去台灣的資本市場表現出它有特有的韌性我想從過去這一年來那當然從今年開始我們就因為跟隨國際股市的一些的變化有一些波動但是還在一個合理我們認為是一個健全的範圍之內\n\n7\n00:02:00,157 --> 00:02:17,646\n那你認為有機會反彈嗎因為外資都在賣超啊幾乎啊這個大家看外資在賣超可能就是那個信心啊就是比較沒有那樣的信心依主委您的看法呢\n\n8\n00:02:18,727 --> 00:02:37,724\n各位報告我在這裡講過很多次金管會不會對未來的市場做任何的預期不過我們也關注到了外資在過去呢是比較站在比較偏賣方但實際上我覺得國際資本的流動本來就是有來有去我們整個外資的持股的水位並沒有做很明顯的改變\n\n9\n00:02:38,462 --> 00:02:56,161\n那要是說四月份這個關稅尤其是川普針對關稅要去做處理那你有什麼看法呢其實我們也很密切的關注像我們有責成我們的交易所跟櫃買中心針對我們所有上市櫃公司有做一些了解\n\n10\n00:02:56,721 --> 00:03:15,789\n其實我們覺得在這些影響的部分都還在可控範圍之內我們也有密切關注比如說我們上市櫃公司在各個主要會受到關稅影響的這些國家比如說它的營收的比例大概佔的比例以及影響我們都有做一些監控我覺得都還在一個就是我們可以預期的範圍之內主委\n\n11\n00:03:17,799 --> 00:03:37,758\n你說未來一年全球的經濟情勢都有大波動在不確定性成為常態之下金管會將對資本市場保持高度的關注那我請問主委因您的看法這個不確定性高的川普政策對未來整個台股有利還是不利\n\n12\n00:03:39,590 --> 00:03:54,099\n要跟委員再報告一下就是說金管會所關注的就是當然我們主要是維持我們資本市場的公平性資訊的透明以及穩定性任何一件事情我們都無法去做非常精準的預測但是我們都會做\n\n13\n00:03:55,200 --> 00:04:07,374\n萬全就是萬全的準備我想這個部分我們還是一樣本質這樣一個市場監理的態度來進行這個市場監理所以說那個主委如果要是不立的話你認為台股空投會不會成為今年的常態會不會\n\n14\n00:04:10,065 --> 00:04:32,726\n這個我沒辦法做這個預期不過我想這個市場的組成是有很多很多的面向所構成我想美國的因素是一個那其實還有很多很多的因素都要考慮那有些有正有反我們只要確保這個市場能夠充分反映各項訊息然後讓所有的投資人參與者得到一個公平交易的環境主委\n\n15\n00:04:33,286 --> 00:04:55,196\n因為去年川普當選預期性的政策有不確定性的而導致台股下跌當時金管會信心喊話表示川普新政造成台股短期的震盪但中長期看來能將回饋他的基本面那我請問主委川普政策的不確定性陳常態你認為\n\n16\n00:04:57,458 --> 00:05:14,791\n國際金融市場負面影響會不會變成短期的常態會不會我想其實國際情勢的變化除了我們大家關注的美國因素以外其實過去一直不缺這些不確定性的因素其實剛才委員講的非常的這個我非常認同就是\n\n17\n00:05:15,652 --> 00:05:36,027\n其實我們所有的股市消息面會影響最終還是回歸到基本面我想就我們看到數據來看台灣的這些上市櫃公司截至二月的營收還是比過去還是有非常顯著的成長我想這個部分這個很多面向我們要一起考慮主委\n\n18\n00:05:38,149 --> 00:06:02,001\n因為金融市場的負面影響對整個國際股市會不會產生連帶的負面效應會不會那當然我剛剛跟委員報告過了任何一件事情因為我們的資本市場是非常非常敏銳的而且它會捕捉任何的消息但是隨著消息面被去化以後就像我們看到很多消息面出來會有影響但是一旦把它落底以後呢大家還是回歸到基本面去看這個問題\n\n19\n00:06:02,967 --> 00:06:23,244\n主委因為川普政策目前帶來的不確定性反映出對未來整個經濟負面的餘力所以說股市向下震盪也屬於是正常那我請問不確定的政策會不會對經濟產生一些負面遞延的效應會不會其實\n\n20\n00:06:24,894 --> 00:06:42,971\n這個我們在學理上不確定本身來講它代表了一個機會跟威脅的均等關係所以其實不確定某某程度也是代表一個機會點就像葉文提到不確定的確定理論他的意思是說你面對不確定你必須採取一個相對應可能比較確定的一些的做法我想\n\n21\n00:06:43,872 --> 00:07:10,623\n市場永遠面對不確定市場最不確定的就是不確定但是我們就是要做這個資訊的特別的充分的揭露以及我們整個交易制度的健全的方面去著手主委你說中長期看來將回歸基本面那我請問主委你所謂的中長期到底具體的條件有哪些如果經濟呈現負面你認為整個回歸基本面的台股將會呈現哪種的狀態\n\n22\n00:07:13,055 --> 00:07:30,995\n其實我覺得這基本面表現在很多很多的面向上比如說我們有關注我們有請我們的交易所去關注過去各個產業歷年來它的營收成長的變化我們長期觀察台灣這麼多產業裡面將近30個產業別裡面大概大部分都是營收持續成長比如我最近\n\n23\n00:07:31,836 --> 00:07:55,379\n收到訊息大概有25個產業是成長大概六七個是呈現衰退我想這個部分就是一個基本面一個很好的呈現我想這也反映在台灣股市的韌性上面所以說主委很有信心是不是我想我對我們的資本市場我一直覺得我們站在監理者來看的話我們是對我們這個制度我們永遠保持戒慎恐懼但是呢我們一定是小心應對\n\n24\n00:07:56,584 --> 00:08:24,433\n主委因為美國宣布將開徵對等的關稅根據媒體的報導印度、越南被點名可能列入骯髒15國的名單那預計整個國營在當地換款動人將受到衝擊那我請問主委4月2日川普將公布的關稅清單為什麼對本國銀行海外分行\n\n25\n00:08:25,433 --> 00:08:52,966\n放款動態會發生有哪些的衝擊呢其實我們面對到這樣的一個變化我們也很快速的去了解一下我們國營在海外放款的這些的對於特別有被可能會被點名的這些國家地區的放款其實都在一個非常我們覺得可控的比率其實這個比率並沒有很高占全體國營的放款比率其實我們會持續的關注但是我們這個議題要關注那你認為這些海外分行\n\n26\n00:08:55,387 --> 00:09:17,204\n是不是有哪些因應的方法當然我覺得這部分因為它會加徵關稅以後一定會對它的某些特定產業的出口的競爭力變差那出口競爭力變差以後當然它可能未來它的營收的部分也會受到影響這個在我們銀行在做貸房有它一定的SOP我想這些他們會逐步的考慮進去\n\n27\n00:09:17,864 --> 00:09:31,801\n主委從軍控從事海外換款主要三大主體包括銀行的海外分行OBU整個國際金融業務分行吉亞主任公司那請問主委你認為\n\n28\n00:09:33,543 --> 00:09:52,763\n這三大主體海外的換款業務哪個主體受到關稅戰的衝擊最大當然這要看不同地區啦因為現在關稅戰也並不是說全面式的它可能比如說我們在全球分工的時候有些國家地區專注在某些領域上它可能雖然是\n\n29\n00:09:53,844 --> 00:10:09,309\n這樣受到影響還有就是我們要看我們銀行放款的對象是誰這很難以概而論不過我們覺得我們都會督促我們的國營要密切注意這個國際形勢的變化我們強調分散我們的風險那這部分呢是我們應對不確定最重要的一個主委啊\n\n30\n00:10:09,949 --> 00:10:33,067\n根據中華信憑分析公股銀行與民營的銀行皆在尋求較高利差的海外市場的區域但今年整個政策變數不確定性風險非常高在風險可控的範圍內採取審慎策略策略的不確定性也增添整個金融業\n\n31\n00:10:34,128 --> 00:10:47,838\n整個海外市場獲利的風險那我請問主委選擇採取調整換款不同區域成長比重或者利用全球產業鏈產業變遷以及供應鏈移轉的商機同時適時的來調整整個換款的組合你認為哪種方式比較能夠因應關稅戰下的衝擊\n\n32\n00:11:00,126 --> 00:11:16,397\n我想其中有很多很多的方法分散絕對是一個很有效的方法產業別的分散、地區別的分散還有業務範圍的分散我想站在風險觀的角度分散永遠是一個我們最常用而且比較容易取得的一個方法\n\n33\n00:11:17,182 --> 00:11:44,293\n最後因為高利率環境以及疫情後商辦出租率下降12年第四季就出現國營通報海外不動產受信重大的預放案導致去年發生歐美商辦受信踩雷那我請問主委你認為在川普政策不確定性下的海外市場受信踩雷的機率會不會提高\n\n34\n00:11:45,033 --> 00:12:01,918\n我想這個部分這個過去我們也關注到這個議題主要是因為疫情過後很多對上班的需求會下降這部分當然每次的因素是不一樣的所以我們會持續來關注這個問題就是最重要如何避免踩雷最重要謝謝謝謝林德武委員的質詢下一個請吳秉瑞委員質詢\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n1192\t4755\t是不是來請軍管會彭主委來彭主委請早安\n8919\t32004\t主委你好主委我請教因為你曾說今年的股市主要變數包括川普上任影響國際金融市場甚大甚至於多項變數包括美國聯準會的利率政策其對股市有影響金管會都會去關注主委\n32944\t51184\t台股由年初的23900多點的高點到今天大盤向下來回震盪2000多點那請問主委你認為這是是不是川普關稅戰導致台股大盤提前來反映整個空頭的一個行情\n51664\t71417\t是 謝謝委員的這個詢問我想剛剛也提到其實金管會一向針對國際的情勢都有寄予高度的關注 剛才特別是美國的相關政策對我們的資本市場的影響剛才陳儒 剛才委員所詢問的我們也有關注到 比如說這個美國政府在\n72718\t98651\t幾次對於關稅這個政策的這些的宣布以後對台灣資本市場的影響我們也看到其實像這個影響是有但是相對的台股還是表現出相對的韌性那很快的就做一個回應然後又恢復到一個比較穩定的狀態這種持續會密切關注所以說那個以主委的觀察是認為說還是非常有信心\n99771\t118758\t當然我覺得過去台灣的資本市場表現出它有特有的韌性我想從過去這一年來那當然從今年開始我們就因為跟隨國際股市的一些的變化有一些波動但是還在一個合理我們認為是一個健全的範圍之內\n120157\t137646\t那你認為有機會反彈嗎因為外資都在賣超啊幾乎啊這個大家看外資在賣超可能就是那個信心啊就是比較沒有那樣的信心依主委您的看法呢\n138727\t157724\t各位報告我在這裡講過很多次金管會不會對未來的市場做任何的預期不過我們也關注到了外資在過去呢是比較站在比較偏賣方但實際上我覺得國際資本的流動本來就是有來有去我們整個外資的持股的水位並沒有做很明顯的改變\n158462\t176161\t那要是說四月份這個關稅尤其是川普針對關稅要去做處理那你有什麼看法呢其實我們也很密切的關注像我們有責成我們的交易所跟櫃買中心針對我們所有上市櫃公司有做一些了解\n176721\t195789\t其實我們覺得在這些影響的部分都還在可控範圍之內我們也有密切關注比如說我們上市櫃公司在各個主要會受到關稅影響的這些國家比如說它的營收的比例大概佔的比例以及影響我們都有做一些監控我覺得都還在一個就是我們可以預期的範圍之內主委\n197799\t217758\t你說未來一年全球的經濟情勢都有大波動在不確定性成為常態之下金管會將對資本市場保持高度的關注那我請問主委因您的看法這個不確定性高的川普政策對未來整個台股有利還是不利\n219590\t234099\t要跟委員再報告一下就是說金管會所關注的就是當然我們主要是維持我們資本市場的公平性資訊的透明以及穩定性任何一件事情我們都無法去做非常精準的預測但是我們都會做\n235200\t247374\t萬全就是萬全的準備我想這個部分我們還是一樣本質這樣一個市場監理的態度來進行這個市場監理所以說那個主委如果要是不立的話你認為台股空投會不會成為今年的常態會不會\n250065\t272726\t這個我沒辦法做這個預期不過我想這個市場的組成是有很多很多的面向所構成我想美國的因素是一個那其實還有很多很多的因素都要考慮那有些有正有反我們只要確保這個市場能夠充分反映各項訊息然後讓所有的投資人參與者得到一個公平交易的環境主委\n273286\t295196\t因為去年川普當選預期性的政策有不確定性的而導致台股下跌當時金管會信心喊話表示川普新政造成台股短期的震盪但中長期看來能將回饋他的基本面那我請問主委川普政策的不確定性陳常態你認為\n297458\t314791\t國際金融市場負面影響會不會變成短期的常態會不會我想其實國際情勢的變化除了我們大家關注的美國因素以外其實過去一直不缺這些不確定性的因素其實剛才委員講的非常的這個我非常認同就是\n315652\t336027\t其實我們所有的股市消息面會影響最終還是回歸到基本面我想就我們看到數據來看台灣的這些上市櫃公司截至二月的營收還是比過去還是有非常顯著的成長我想這個部分這個很多面向我們要一起考慮主委\n338149\t362001\t因為金融市場的負面影響對整個國際股市會不會產生連帶的負面效應會不會那當然我剛剛跟委員報告過了任何一件事情因為我們的資本市場是非常非常敏銳的而且它會捕捉任何的消息但是隨著消息面被去化以後就像我們看到很多消息面出來會有影響但是一旦把它落底以後呢大家還是回歸到基本面去看這個問題\n362967\t383244\t主委因為川普政策目前帶來的不確定性反映出對未來整個經濟負面的餘力所以說股市向下震盪也屬於是正常那我請問不確定的政策會不會對經濟產生一些負面遞延的效應會不會其實\n384894\t402971\t這個我們在學理上不確定本身來講它代表了一個機會跟威脅的均等關係所以其實不確定某某程度也是代表一個機會點就像葉文提到不確定的確定理論他的意思是說你面對不確定你必須採取一個相對應可能比較確定的一些的做法我想\n403872\t430623\t市場永遠面對不確定市場最不確定的就是不確定但是我們就是要做這個資訊的特別的充分的揭露以及我們整個交易制度的健全的方面去著手主委你說中長期看來將回歸基本面那我請問主委你所謂的中長期到底具體的條件有哪些如果經濟呈現負面你認為整個回歸基本面的台股將會呈現哪種的狀態\n433055\t450995\t其實我覺得這基本面表現在很多很多的面向上比如說我們有關注我們有請我們的交易所去關注過去各個產業歷年來它的營收成長的變化我們長期觀察台灣這麼多產業裡面將近30個產業別裡面大概大部分都是營收持續成長比如我最近\n451836\t475379\t收到訊息大概有25個產業是成長大概六七個是呈現衰退我想這個部分就是一個基本面一個很好的呈現我想這也反映在台灣股市的韌性上面所以說主委很有信心是不是我想我對我們的資本市場我一直覺得我們站在監理者來看的話我們是對我們這個制度我們永遠保持戒慎恐懼但是呢我們一定是小心應對\n476584\t504433\t主委因為美國宣布將開徵對等的關稅根據媒體的報導印度、越南被點名可能列入骯髒15國的名單那預計整個國營在當地換款動人將受到衝擊那我請問主委4月2日川普將公布的關稅清單為什麼對本國銀行海外分行\n505433\t532966\t放款動態會發生有哪些的衝擊呢其實我們面對到這樣的一個變化我們也很快速的去了解一下我們國營在海外放款的這些的對於特別有被可能會被點名的這些國家地區的放款其實都在一個非常我們覺得可控的比率其實這個比率並沒有很高占全體國營的放款比率其實我們會持續的關注但是我們這個議題要關注那你認為這些海外分行\n535387\t557204\t是不是有哪些因應的方法當然我覺得這部分因為它會加徵關稅以後一定會對它的某些特定產業的出口的競爭力變差那出口競爭力變差以後當然它可能未來它的營收的部分也會受到影響這個在我們銀行在做貸房有它一定的SOP我想這些他們會逐步的考慮進去\n557864\t571801\t主委從軍控從事海外換款主要三大主體包括銀行的海外分行OBU整個國際金融業務分行吉亞主任公司那請問主委你認為\n573543\t592763\t這三大主體海外的換款業務哪個主體受到關稅戰的衝擊最大當然這要看不同地區啦因為現在關稅戰也並不是說全面式的它可能比如說我們在全球分工的時候有些國家地區專注在某些領域上它可能雖然是\n593844\t609309\t這樣受到影響還有就是我們要看我們銀行放款的對象是誰這很難以概而論不過我們覺得我們都會督促我們的國營要密切注意這個國際形勢的變化我們強調分散我們的風險那這部分呢是我們應對不確定最重要的一個主委啊\n609949\t633067\t根據中華信憑分析公股銀行與民營的銀行皆在尋求較高利差的海外市場的區域但今年整個政策變數不確定性風險非常高在風險可控的範圍內採取審慎策略策略的不確定性也增添整個金融業\n634128\t647838\t整個海外市場獲利的風險那我請問主委選擇採取調整換款不同區域成長比重或者利用全球產業鏈產業變遷以及供應鏈移轉的商機同時適時的來調整整個換款的組合你認為哪種方式比較能夠因應關稅戰下的衝擊\n660126\t676397\t我想其中有很多很多的方法分散絕對是一個很有效的方法產業別的分散、地區別的分散還有業務範圍的分散我想站在風險觀的角度分散永遠是一個我們最常用而且比較容易取得的一個方法\n677182\t704293\t最後因為高利率環境以及疫情後商辦出租率下降12年第四季就出現國營通報海外不動產受信重大的預放案導致去年發生歐美商辦受信踩雷那我請問主委你認為在川普政策不確定性下的海外市場受信踩雷的機率會不會提高\n705033\t721918\t我想這個部分這個過去我們也關注到這個議題主要是因為疫情過後很多對上班的需求會下降這部分當然每次的因素是不一樣的所以我們會持續來關注這個問題就是最重要如何避免踩雷最重要謝謝謝謝林德武委員的質詢下一個請吳秉瑞委員質詢\n","txt":"是不是來請軍管會彭主委來彭主委請早安\n主委你好主委我請教因為你曾說今年的股市主要變數包括川普上任影響國際金融市場甚大甚至於多項變數包括美國聯準會的利率政策其對股市有影響金管會都會去關注主委\n台股由年初的23900多點的高點到今天大盤向下來回震盪2000多點那請問主委你認為這是是不是川普關稅戰導致台股大盤提前來反映整個空頭的一個行情\n是 謝謝委員的這個詢問我想剛剛也提到其實金管會一向針對國際的情勢都有寄予高度的關注 剛才特別是美國的相關政策對我們的資本市場的影響剛才陳儒 剛才委員所詢問的我們也有關注到 比如說這個美國政府在\n幾次對於關稅這個政策的這些的宣布以後對台灣資本市場的影響我們也看到其實像這個影響是有但是相對的台股還是表現出相對的韌性那很快的就做一個回應然後又恢復到一個比較穩定的狀態這種持續會密切關注所以說那個以主委的觀察是認為說還是非常有信心\n當然我覺得過去台灣的資本市場表現出它有特有的韌性我想從過去這一年來那當然從今年開始我們就因為跟隨國際股市的一些的變化有一些波動但是還在一個合理我們認為是一個健全的範圍之內\n那你認為有機會反彈嗎因為外資都在賣超啊幾乎啊這個大家看外資在賣超可能就是那個信心啊就是比較沒有那樣的信心依主委您的看法呢\n各位報告我在這裡講過很多次金管會不會對未來的市場做任何的預期不過我們也關注到了外資在過去呢是比較站在比較偏賣方但實際上我覺得國際資本的流動本來就是有來有去我們整個外資的持股的水位並沒有做很明顯的改變\n那要是說四月份這個關稅尤其是川普針對關稅要去做處理那你有什麼看法呢其實我們也很密切的關注像我們有責成我們的交易所跟櫃買中心針對我們所有上市櫃公司有做一些了解\n其實我們覺得在這些影響的部分都還在可控範圍之內我們也有密切關注比如說我們上市櫃公司在各個主要會受到關稅影響的這些國家比如說它的營收的比例大概佔的比例以及影響我們都有做一些監控我覺得都還在一個就是我們可以預期的範圍之內主委\n你說未來一年全球的經濟情勢都有大波動在不確定性成為常態之下金管會將對資本市場保持高度的關注那我請問主委因您的看法這個不確定性高的川普政策對未來整個台股有利還是不利\n要跟委員再報告一下就是說金管會所關注的就是當然我們主要是維持我們資本市場的公平性資訊的透明以及穩定性任何一件事情我們都無法去做非常精準的預測但是我們都會做\n萬全就是萬全的準備我想這個部分我們還是一樣本質這樣一個市場監理的態度來進行這個市場監理所以說那個主委如果要是不立的話你認為台股空投會不會成為今年的常態會不會\n這個我沒辦法做這個預期不過我想這個市場的組成是有很多很多的面向所構成我想美國的因素是一個那其實還有很多很多的因素都要考慮那有些有正有反我們只要確保這個市場能夠充分反映各項訊息然後讓所有的投資人參與者得到一個公平交易的環境主委\n因為去年川普當選預期性的政策有不確定性的而導致台股下跌當時金管會信心喊話表示川普新政造成台股短期的震盪但中長期看來能將回饋他的基本面那我請問主委川普政策的不確定性陳常態你認為\n國際金融市場負面影響會不會變成短期的常態會不會我想其實國際情勢的變化除了我們大家關注的美國因素以外其實過去一直不缺這些不確定性的因素其實剛才委員講的非常的這個我非常認同就是\n其實我們所有的股市消息面會影響最終還是回歸到基本面我想就我們看到數據來看台灣的這些上市櫃公司截至二月的營收還是比過去還是有非常顯著的成長我想這個部分這個很多面向我們要一起考慮主委\n因為金融市場的負面影響對整個國際股市會不會產生連帶的負面效應會不會那當然我剛剛跟委員報告過了任何一件事情因為我們的資本市場是非常非常敏銳的而且它會捕捉任何的消息但是隨著消息面被去化以後就像我們看到很多消息面出來會有影響但是一旦把它落底以後呢大家還是回歸到基本面去看這個問題\n主委因為川普政策目前帶來的不確定性反映出對未來整個經濟負面的餘力所以說股市向下震盪也屬於是正常那我請問不確定的政策會不會對經濟產生一些負面遞延的效應會不會其實\n這個我們在學理上不確定本身來講它代表了一個機會跟威脅的均等關係所以其實不確定某某程度也是代表一個機會點就像葉文提到不確定的確定理論他的意思是說你面對不確定你必須採取一個相對應可能比較確定的一些的做法我想\n市場永遠面對不確定市場最不確定的就是不確定但是我們就是要做這個資訊的特別的充分的揭露以及我們整個交易制度的健全的方面去著手主委你說中長期看來將回歸基本面那我請問主委你所謂的中長期到底具體的條件有哪些如果經濟呈現負面你認為整個回歸基本面的台股將會呈現哪種的狀態\n其實我覺得這基本面表現在很多很多的面向上比如說我們有關注我們有請我們的交易所去關注過去各個產業歷年來它的營收成長的變化我們長期觀察台灣這麼多產業裡面將近30個產業別裡面大概大部分都是營收持續成長比如我最近\n收到訊息大概有25個產業是成長大概六七個是呈現衰退我想這個部分就是一個基本面一個很好的呈現我想這也反映在台灣股市的韌性上面所以說主委很有信心是不是我想我對我們的資本市場我一直覺得我們站在監理者來看的話我們是對我們這個制度我們永遠保持戒慎恐懼但是呢我們一定是小心應對\n主委因為美國宣布將開徵對等的關稅根據媒體的報導印度、越南被點名可能列入骯髒15國的名單那預計整個國營在當地換款動人將受到衝擊那我請問主委4月2日川普將公布的關稅清單為什麼對本國銀行海外分行\n放款動態會發生有哪些的衝擊呢其實我們面對到這樣的一個變化我們也很快速的去了解一下我們國營在海外放款的這些的對於特別有被可能會被點名的這些國家地區的放款其實都在一個非常我們覺得可控的比率其實這個比率並沒有很高占全體國營的放款比率其實我們會持續的關注但是我們這個議題要關注那你認為這些海外分行\n是不是有哪些因應的方法當然我覺得這部分因為它會加徵關稅以後一定會對它的某些特定產業的出口的競爭力變差那出口競爭力變差以後當然它可能未來它的營收的部分也會受到影響這個在我們銀行在做貸房有它一定的SOP我想這些他們會逐步的考慮進去\n主委從軍控從事海外換款主要三大主體包括銀行的海外分行OBU整個國際金融業務分行吉亞主任公司那請問主委你認為\n這三大主體海外的換款業務哪個主體受到關稅戰的衝擊最大當然這要看不同地區啦因為現在關稅戰也並不是說全面式的它可能比如說我們在全球分工的時候有些國家地區專注在某些領域上它可能雖然是\n這樣受到影響還有就是我們要看我們銀行放款的對象是誰這很難以概而論不過我們覺得我們都會督促我們的國營要密切注意這個國際形勢的變化我們強調分散我們的風險那這部分呢是我們應對不確定最重要的一個主委啊\n根據中華信憑分析公股銀行與民營的銀行皆在尋求較高利差的海外市場的區域但今年整個政策變數不確定性風險非常高在風險可控的範圍內採取審慎策略策略的不確定性也增添整個金融業\n整個海外市場獲利的風險那我請問主委選擇採取調整換款不同區域成長比重或者利用全球產業鏈產業變遷以及供應鏈移轉的商機同時適時的來調整整個換款的組合你認為哪種方式比較能夠因應關稅戰下的衝擊\n我想其中有很多很多的方法分散絕對是一個很有效的方法產業別的分散、地區別的分散還有業務範圍的分散我想站在風險觀的角度分散永遠是一個我們最常用而且比較容易取得的一個方法\n最後因為高利率環境以及疫情後商辦出租率下降12年第四季就出現國營通報海外不動產受信重大的預放案導致去年發生歐美商辦受信踩雷那我請問主委你認為在川普政策不確定性下的海外市場受信踩雷的機率會不會提高\n我想這個部分這個過去我們也關注到這個議題主要是因為疫情過後很多對上班的需求會下降這部分當然每次的因素是不一樣的所以我們會持續來關注這個問題就是最重要如何避免踩雷最重要謝謝謝謝林德武委員的質詢下一個請吳秉瑞委員質詢\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:01.192 --> 00:04.755\n是不是來請軍管會彭主委來彭主委請早安\n\n00:08.919 --> 00:32.004\n主委你好主委我請教因為你曾說今年的股市主要變數包括川普上任影響國際金融市場甚大甚至於多項變數包括美國聯準會的利率政策其對股市有影響金管會都會去關注主委\n\n00:32.944 --> 00:51.184\n台股由年初的23900多點的高點到今天大盤向下來回震盪2000多點那請問主委你認為這是是不是川普關稅戰導致台股大盤提前來反映整個空頭的一個行情\n\n00:51.664 --> 01:11.417\n是謝謝委員的這個詢問我想剛剛也提到其實金管會一向針對國際的情勢都有寄予高度的關注剛才特別是美國的相關政策對我們的資本市場的影響剛才陳儒剛才委員所詢問的我們也有關注到比如說這個美國政府在\n\n01:12.718 --> 01:38.651\n幾次對於關稅這個政策的這些的宣布以後對台灣資本市場的影響我們也看到其實像這個影響是有但是相對的台股還是表現出相對的韌性那很快的就做一個回應然後又恢復到一個比較穩定的狀態這種持續會密切關注所以說那個以主委的觀察是認為說還是非常有信心\n\n01:39.771 --> 01:58.758\n當然我覺得過去台灣的資本市場表現出它有特有的韌性我想從過去這一年來那當然從今年開始我們就因為跟隨國際股市的一些的變化有一些波動但是還在一個合理我們認為是一個健全的範圍之內\n\n02:00.157 --> 02:17.646\n那你認為有機會反彈嗎因為外資都在賣超啊幾乎啊這個大家看外資在賣超可能就是那個信心啊就是比較沒有那樣的信心依主委您的看法呢\n\n02:18.727 --> 02:37.724\n各位報告我在這裡講過很多次金管會不會對未來的市場做任何的預期不過我們也關注到了外資在過去呢是比較站在比較偏賣方但實際上我覺得國際資本的流動本來就是有來有去我們整個外資的持股的水位並沒有做很明顯的改變\n\n02:38.462 --> 02:56.161\n那要是說四月份這個關稅尤其是川普針對關稅要去做處理那你有什麼看法呢其實我們也很密切的關注像我們有責成我們的交易所跟櫃買中心針對我們所有上市櫃公司有做一些了解\n\n02:56.721 --> 03:15.789\n其實我們覺得在這些影響的部分都還在可控範圍之內我們也有密切關注比如說我們上市櫃公司在各個主要會受到關稅影響的這些國家比如說它的營收的比例大概佔的比例以及影響我們都有做一些監控我覺得都還在一個就是我們可以預期的範圍之內主委\n\n03:17.799 --> 03:37.758\n你說未來一年全球的經濟情勢都有大波動在不確定性成為常態之下金管會將對資本市場保持高度的關注那我請問主委因您的看法這個不確定性高的川普政策對未來整個台股有利還是不利\n\n03:39.590 --> 03:54.099\n要跟委員再報告一下就是說金管會所關注的就是當然我們主要是維持我們資本市場的公平性資訊的透明以及穩定性任何一件事情我們都無法去做非常精準的預測但是我們都會做\n\n03:55.200 --> 04:07.374\n萬全就是萬全的準備我想這個部分我們還是一樣本質這樣一個市場監理的態度來進行這個市場監理所以說那個主委如果要是不立的話你認為台股空投會不會成為今年的常態會不會\n\n04:10.065 --> 04:32.726\n這個我沒辦法做這個預期不過我想這個市場的組成是有很多很多的面向所構成我想美國的因素是一個那其實還有很多很多的因素都要考慮那有些有正有反我們只要確保這個市場能夠充分反映各項訊息然後讓所有的投資人參與者得到一個公平交易的環境主委\n\n04:33.286 --> 04:55.196\n因為去年川普當選預期性的政策有不確定性的而導致台股下跌當時金管會信心喊話表示川普新政造成台股短期的震盪但中長期看來能將回饋他的基本面那我請問主委川普政策的不確定性陳常態你認為\n\n04:57.458 --> 05:14.791\n國際金融市場負面影響會不會變成短期的常態會不會我想其實國際情勢的變化除了我們大家關注的美國因素以外其實過去一直不缺這些不確定性的因素其實剛才委員講的非常的這個我非常認同就是\n\n05:15.652 --> 05:36.027\n其實我們所有的股市消息面會影響最終還是回歸到基本面我想就我們看到數據來看台灣的這些上市櫃公司截至二月的營收還是比過去還是有非常顯著的成長我想這個部分這個很多面向我們要一起考慮主委\n\n05:38.149 --> 06:02.001\n因為金融市場的負面影響對整個國際股市會不會產生連帶的負面效應會不會那當然我剛剛跟委員報告過了任何一件事情因為我們的資本市場是非常非常敏銳的而且它會捕捉任何的消息但是隨著消息面被去化以後就像我們看到很多消息面出來會有影響但是一旦把它落底以後呢大家還是回歸到基本面去看這個問題\n\n06:02.967 --> 06:23.244\n主委因為川普政策目前帶來的不確定性反映出對未來整個經濟負面的餘力所以說股市向下震盪也屬於是正常那我請問不確定的政策會不會對經濟產生一些負面遞延的效應會不會其實\n\n06:24.894 --> 06:42.971\n這個我們在學理上不確定本身來講它代表了一個機會跟威脅的均等關係所以其實不確定某某程度也是代表一個機會點就像葉文提到不確定的確定理論他的意思是說你面對不確定你必須採取一個相對應可能比較確定的一些的做法我想\n\n06:43.872 --> 07:10.623\n市場永遠面對不確定市場最不確定的就是不確定但是我們就是要做這個資訊的特別的充分的揭露以及我們整個交易制度的健全的方面去著手主委你說中長期看來將回歸基本面那我請問主委你所謂的中長期到底具體的條件有哪些如果經濟呈現負面你認為整個回歸基本面的台股將會呈現哪種的狀態\n\n07:13.055 --> 07:30.995\n其實我覺得這基本面表現在很多很多的面向上比如說我們有關注我們有請我們的交易所去關注過去各個產業歷年來它的營收成長的變化我們長期觀察台灣這麼多產業裡面將近30個產業別裡面大概大部分都是營收持續成長比如我最近\n\n07:31.836 --> 07:55.379\n收到訊息大概有25個產業是成長大概六七個是呈現衰退我想這個部分就是一個基本面一個很好的呈現我想這也反映在台灣股市的韌性上面所以說主委很有信心是不是我想我對我們的資本市場我一直覺得我們站在監理者來看的話我們是對我們這個制度我們永遠保持戒慎恐懼但是呢我們一定是小心應對\n\n07:56.584 --> 08:24.433\n主委因為美國宣布將開徵對等的關稅根據媒體的報導印度、越南被點名可能列入骯髒15國的名單那預計整個國營在當地換款動人將受到衝擊那我請問主委4月2日川普將公布的關稅清單為什麼對本國銀行海外分行\n\n08:25.433 --> 08:52.966\n放款動態會發生有哪些的衝擊呢其實我們面對到這樣的一個變化我們也很快速的去了解一下我們國營在海外放款的這些的對於特別有被可能會被點名的這些國家地區的放款其實都在一個非常我們覺得可控的比率其實這個比率並沒有很高占全體國營的放款比率其實我們會持續的關注但是我們這個議題要關注那你認為這些海外分行\n\n08:55.387 --> 09:17.204\n是不是有哪些因應的方法當然我覺得這部分因為它會加徵關稅以後一定會對它的某些特定產業的出口的競爭力變差那出口競爭力變差以後當然它可能未來它的營收的部分也會受到影響這個在我們銀行在做貸房有它一定的SOP我想這些他們會逐步的考慮進去\n\n09:17.864 --> 09:31.801\n主委從軍控從事海外換款主要三大主體包括銀行的海外分行OBU整個國際金融業務分行吉亞主任公司那請問主委你認為\n\n09:33.543 --> 09:52.763\n這三大主體海外的換款業務哪個主體受到關稅戰的衝擊最大當然這要看不同地區啦因為現在關稅戰也並不是說全面式的它可能比如說我們在全球分工的時候有些國家地區專注在某些領域上它可能雖然是\n\n09:53.844 --> 10:09.309\n這樣受到影響還有就是我們要看我們銀行放款的對象是誰這很難以概而論不過我們覺得我們都會督促我們的國營要密切注意這個國際形勢的變化我們強調分散我們的風險那這部分呢是我們應對不確定最重要的一個主委啊\n\n10:09.949 --> 10:33.067\n根據中華信憑分析公股銀行與民營的銀行皆在尋求較高利差的海外市場的區域但今年整個政策變數不確定性風險非常高在風險可控的範圍內採取審慎策略策略的不確定性也增添整個金融業\n\n10:34.128 --> 10:47.838\n整個海外市場獲利的風險那我請問主委選擇採取調整換款不同區域成長比重或者利用全球產業鏈產業變遷以及供應鏈移轉的商機同時適時的來調整整個換款的組合你認為哪種方式比較能夠因應關稅戰下的衝擊\n\n11:00.126 --> 11:16.397\n我想其中有很多很多的方法分散絕對是一個很有效的方法產業別的分散、地區別的分散還有業務範圍的分散我想站在風險觀的角度分散永遠是一個我們最常用而且比較容易取得的一個方法\n\n11:17.182 --> 11:44.293\n最後因為高利率環境以及疫情後商辦出租率下降12年第四季就出現國營通報海外不動產受信重大的預放案導致去年發生歐美商辦受信踩雷那我請問主委你認為在川普政策不確定性下的海外市場受信踩雷的機率會不會提高\n\n11:45.033 --> 12:01.918\n我想這個部分這個過去我們也關注到這個議題主要是因為疫情過後很多對上班的需求會下降這部分當然每次的因素是不一樣的所以我們會持續來關注這個問題就是最重要如何避免踩雷最重要謝謝謝謝林德武委員的質詢下一個請吳秉瑞委員質詢\n\n","segments":[{"start":1.192,"end":4.755,"text":"是不是來請軍管會彭主委來彭主委請早安"},{"start":8.919,"end":32.004,"text":"主委你好主委我請教因為你曾說今年的股市主要變數包括川普上任影響國際金融市場甚大甚至於多項變數包括美國聯準會的利率政策其對股市有影響金管會都會去關注主委"},{"start":32.944,"end":51.184,"text":"台股由年初的23900多點的高點到今天大盤向下來回震盪2000多點那請問主委你認為這是是不是川普關稅戰導致台股大盤提前來反映整個空頭的一個行情"},{"start":51.664,"end":71.417,"text":"是 謝謝委員的這個詢問我想剛剛也提到其實金管會一向針對國際的情勢都有寄予高度的關注 剛才特別是美國的相關政策對我們的資本市場的影響剛才陳儒 剛才委員所詢問的我們也有關注到 比如說這個美國政府在"},{"start":72.718,"end":98.651,"text":"幾次對於關稅這個政策的這些的宣布以後對台灣資本市場的影響我們也看到其實像這個影響是有但是相對的台股還是表現出相對的韌性那很快的就做一個回應然後又恢復到一個比較穩定的狀態這種持續會密切關注所以說那個以主委的觀察是認為說還是非常有信心"},{"start":99.771,"end":118.758,"text":"當然我覺得過去台灣的資本市場表現出它有特有的韌性我想從過去這一年來那當然從今年開始我們就因為跟隨國際股市的一些的變化有一些波動但是還在一個合理我們認為是一個健全的範圍之內"},{"start":120.157,"end":137.646,"text":"那你認為有機會反彈嗎因為外資都在賣超啊幾乎啊這個大家看外資在賣超可能就是那個信心啊就是比較沒有那樣的信心依主委您的看法呢"},{"start":138.727,"end":157.724,"text":"各位報告我在這裡講過很多次金管會不會對未來的市場做任何的預期不過我們也關注到了外資在過去呢是比較站在比較偏賣方但實際上我覺得國際資本的流動本來就是有來有去我們整個外資的持股的水位並沒有做很明顯的改變"},{"start":158.462,"end":176.161,"text":"那要是說四月份這個關稅尤其是川普針對關稅要去做處理那你有什麼看法呢其實我們也很密切的關注像我們有責成我們的交易所跟櫃買中心針對我們所有上市櫃公司有做一些了解"},{"start":176.721,"end":195.789,"text":"其實我們覺得在這些影響的部分都還在可控範圍之內我們也有密切關注比如說我們上市櫃公司在各個主要會受到關稅影響的這些國家比如說它的營收的比例大概佔的比例以及影響我們都有做一些監控我覺得都還在一個就是我們可以預期的範圍之內主委"},{"start":197.799,"end":217.758,"text":"你說未來一年全球的經濟情勢都有大波動在不確定性成為常態之下金管會將對資本市場保持高度的關注那我請問主委因您的看法這個不確定性高的川普政策對未來整個台股有利還是不利"},{"start":219.59,"end":234.099,"text":"要跟委員再報告一下就是說金管會所關注的就是當然我們主要是維持我們資本市場的公平性資訊的透明以及穩定性任何一件事情我們都無法去做非常精準的預測但是我們都會做"},{"start":235.2,"end":247.374,"text":"萬全就是萬全的準備我想這個部分我們還是一樣本質這樣一個市場監理的態度來進行這個市場監理所以說那個主委如果要是不立的話你認為台股空投會不會成為今年的常態會不會"},{"start":250.065,"end":272.726,"text":"這個我沒辦法做這個預期不過我想這個市場的組成是有很多很多的面向所構成我想美國的因素是一個那其實還有很多很多的因素都要考慮那有些有正有反我們只要確保這個市場能夠充分反映各項訊息然後讓所有的投資人參與者得到一個公平交易的環境主委"},{"start":273.286,"end":295.196,"text":"因為去年川普當選預期性的政策有不確定性的而導致台股下跌當時金管會信心喊話表示川普新政造成台股短期的震盪但中長期看來能將回饋他的基本面那我請問主委川普政策的不確定性陳常態你認為"},{"start":297.458,"end":314.791,"text":"國際金融市場負面影響會不會變成短期的常態會不會我想其實國際情勢的變化除了我們大家關注的美國因素以外其實過去一直不缺這些不確定性的因素其實剛才委員講的非常的這個我非常認同就是"},{"start":315.652,"end":336.027,"text":"其實我們所有的股市消息面會影響最終還是回歸到基本面我想就我們看到數據來看台灣的這些上市櫃公司截至二月的營收還是比過去還是有非常顯著的成長我想這個部分這個很多面向我們要一起考慮主委"},{"start":338.149,"end":362.001,"text":"因為金融市場的負面影響對整個國際股市會不會產生連帶的負面效應會不會那當然我剛剛跟委員報告過了任何一件事情因為我們的資本市場是非常非常敏銳的而且它會捕捉任何的消息但是隨著消息面被去化以後就像我們看到很多消息面出來會有影響但是一旦把它落底以後呢大家還是回歸到基本面去看這個問題"},{"start":362.967,"end":383.244,"text":"主委因為川普政策目前帶來的不確定性反映出對未來整個經濟負面的餘力所以說股市向下震盪也屬於是正常那我請問不確定的政策會不會對經濟產生一些負面遞延的效應會不會其實"},{"start":384.894,"end":402.971,"text":"這個我們在學理上不確定本身來講它代表了一個機會跟威脅的均等關係所以其實不確定某某程度也是代表一個機會點就像葉文提到不確定的確定理論他的意思是說你面對不確定你必須採取一個相對應可能比較確定的一些的做法我想"},{"start":403.872,"end":430.623,"text":"市場永遠面對不確定市場最不確定的就是不確定但是我們就是要做這個資訊的特別的充分的揭露以及我們整個交易制度的健全的方面去著手主委你說中長期看來將回歸基本面那我請問主委你所謂的中長期到底具體的條件有哪些如果經濟呈現負面你認為整個回歸基本面的台股將會呈現哪種的狀態"},{"start":433.055,"end":450.995,"text":"其實我覺得這基本面表現在很多很多的面向上比如說我們有關注我們有請我們的交易所去關注過去各個產業歷年來它的營收成長的變化我們長期觀察台灣這麼多產業裡面將近30個產業別裡面大概大部分都是營收持續成長比如我最近"},{"start":451.836,"end":475.379,"text":"收到訊息大概有25個產業是成長大概六七個是呈現衰退我想這個部分就是一個基本面一個很好的呈現我想這也反映在台灣股市的韌性上面所以說主委很有信心是不是我想我對我們的資本市場我一直覺得我們站在監理者來看的話我們是對我們這個制度我們永遠保持戒慎恐懼但是呢我們一定是小心應對"},{"start":476.584,"end":504.433,"text":"主委因為美國宣布將開徵對等的關稅根據媒體的報導印度、越南被點名可能列入骯髒15國的名單那預計整個國營在當地換款動人將受到衝擊那我請問主委4月2日川普將公布的關稅清單為什麼對本國銀行海外分行"},{"start":505.433,"end":532.966,"text":"放款動態會發生有哪些的衝擊呢其實我們面對到這樣的一個變化我們也很快速的去了解一下我們國營在海外放款的這些的對於特別有被可能會被點名的這些國家地區的放款其實都在一個非常我們覺得可控的比率其實這個比率並沒有很高占全體國營的放款比率其實我們會持續的關注但是我們這個議題要關注那你認為這些海外分行"},{"start":535.387,"end":557.204,"text":"是不是有哪些因應的方法當然我覺得這部分因為它會加徵關稅以後一定會對它的某些特定產業的出口的競爭力變差那出口競爭力變差以後當然它可能未來它的營收的部分也會受到影響這個在我們銀行在做貸房有它一定的SOP我想這些他們會逐步的考慮進去"},{"start":557.864,"end":571.801,"text":"主委從軍控從事海外換款主要三大主體包括銀行的海外分行OBU整個國際金融業務分行吉亞主任公司那請問主委你認為"},{"start":573.543,"end":592.763,"text":"這三大主體海外的換款業務哪個主體受到關稅戰的衝擊最大當然這要看不同地區啦因為現在關稅戰也並不是說全面式的它可能比如說我們在全球分工的時候有些國家地區專注在某些領域上它可能雖然是"},{"start":593.844,"end":609.309,"text":"這樣受到影響還有就是我們要看我們銀行放款的對象是誰這很難以概而論不過我們覺得我們都會督促我們的國營要密切注意這個國際形勢的變化我們強調分散我們的風險那這部分呢是我們應對不確定最重要的一個主委啊"},{"start":609.949,"end":633.067,"text":"根據中華信憑分析公股銀行與民營的銀行皆在尋求較高利差的海外市場的區域但今年整個政策變數不確定性風險非常高在風險可控的範圍內採取審慎策略策略的不確定性也增添整個金融業"},{"start":634.128,"end":647.838,"text":"整個海外市場獲利的風險那我請問主委選擇採取調整換款不同區域成長比重或者利用全球產業鏈產業變遷以及供應鏈移轉的商機同時適時的來調整整個換款的組合你認為哪種方式比較能夠因應關稅戰下的衝擊"},{"start":660.126,"end":676.397,"text":"我想其中有很多很多的方法分散絕對是一個很有效的方法產業別的分散、地區別的分散還有業務範圍的分散我想站在風險觀的角度分散永遠是一個我們最常用而且比較容易取得的一個方法"},{"start":677.182,"end":704.293,"text":"最後因為高利率環境以及疫情後商辦出租率下降12年第四季就出現國營通報海外不動產受信重大的預放案導致去年發生歐美商辦受信踩雷那我請問主委你認為在川普政策不確定性下的海外市場受信踩雷的機率會不會提高"},{"start":705.033,"end":721.918,"text":"我想這個部分這個過去我們也關注到這個議題主要是因為疫情過後很多對上班的需求會下降這部分當然每次的因素是不一樣的所以我們會持續來關注這個問題就是最重要如何避免踩雷最重要謝謝謝謝林德武委員的質詢下一個請吳秉瑞委員質詢"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":122,"blocks":[["林委員德福：（9時12分）謝謝主席，是不是請金管會彭主委？"],["主席：彭主委請。"],["彭主任委員金隆：委員早安。"],["林委員德福：主委，你好。主委，我請教，因為你曾說今年的股市主要變數包括川普上任，影響國際金融市場甚大，甚至多項變數包括美國聯準會的利率政策，及對股市有所影響，金管會都會去關注。主委，臺股由年初兩萬三千九百多點的高點，到今天大盤向下來回震盪兩千多點，請問主委，你認為這是不是川普關稅戰導致臺股大盤提前反映整個空頭的行情？"],["彭主任委員金隆：是，謝謝委員的詢問。我剛剛也提到，其實金管會一向針對國際情勢都有寄予高度的關注，特別是美國相關政策對我們資本市場的影響，誠如剛才委員所詢問的，我們也有關注到比如美國政府在幾次對於這些關稅政策宣布以後對臺灣資本市場的影響，我們也看到實際上這個影響是有的，但是臺股還是表現出相對的韌性，很快就做一個回應，然後又恢復到一個比較穩定的狀態，我們會持續密切關注。"],["林委員德福：所以以主委的觀察，認為還是非常有信心？"],["彭主任委員金隆：當然，我覺得臺灣的資本市場從過去這一年來表現出它特有的韌性，當然從今年開始，我們因為跟隨國際股市的變化而有一些波動，但是還在一個我們認為是合理及健全的範圍之內。"],["林委員德福：你認為有機會反彈嗎？因為外資幾乎都在賣超，大家看外資在賣超，可能就比較沒有信心，依主委您的看法呢？"],["彭主任委員金隆：跟委員報告，我在這裡講過很多次，金管會不會對未來市場做任何的預期，不過我們也關注到外資在過去比較站在偏賣方，但實際上國際資本的流動本來就是有來有去，整個外資的持股水位並沒有很明顯的改變。"],["林委員德福：要是4月份的關稅，尤其是川普針對關稅要做處理，你有什麼看法呢？"],["彭主任委員金隆：其實我們也很密切關注，像我們有責成交易所跟櫃買中心，針對所有上市櫃公司做一些了解，我們覺得這些影響的部分都還在可控範圍之內，並有密切關注，對於上市櫃公司在各個主要會受到關稅影響的這些國家，比如它的營收大概占的比率以及影響，我們都有做一些監控，都還在一個可以預期的範圍之內。"],["林委員德福：主委，你說未來一年全球的經濟情勢都有大波動，在不確定性成為常態之下，金管會將對資本市場保持高度關注，我請問主委，依您的看法，這個不確定性高的川普政策，對未來整個臺股是有利，還是不利？"],["彭主任委員金隆：跟委員再報告一下，金管會所關注的，當然我們主要是維持資本市場的公平性、資訊的透明以及穩定性，任何一件事情我們都無法非常精準的預測，但是我們都會做萬全的準備，我想這個部分我們還是一樣秉持市場監理的態度進行市場的管理。"],["林委員德福：主委，要是不利的話，你認為臺股空頭會不會成為今年的常態？"],["彭主任委員金隆：我沒辦法做預期，不過市場的組成是由很多面向所構成，我想美國的因素是一個，其實還有很多因素都要考慮，有正有反，我們只要確保這個市場能夠充分反映各項訊息，讓所有投資參與者得到一個公平交易的環境。"],["林委員德福：主委，因為去年川普當選，預期性的政策有不確定性而導致台股下跌，當時金管會信心喊話表示，川普新政造成臺股短期的震盪，但中長期看來仍將回歸基本面。請問主委，川普政策的不確定性變成常態，你認為國際金融市場負面影響會不會變成短期的常態？"],["彭主任委員金隆：我想國際情勢的變化，除了大家關注的美國因素以外，其實過去一直不缺這些不確定性的因素。剛才委員所講的我非常認同，就是所有的股市會受到消息面影響，但最終還是回歸到基本面。就以我們的數據來看，臺灣這些上市櫃公司截至2月的營收比過去還是有非常顯著的成長，我想這個部分有很多面向我們要一起考慮。"],["林委員德福：主委，金融市場的負面影響對整個國際股市會不會產生連帶的負面效應？"],["彭主任委員金隆：我剛剛跟委員報告過了，因為我們的資本市場是非常敏銳的，而且它會捕捉任何的消息，但是隨著消息面被去化以後，就像我們看到很多消息面出來會有影響，但是一旦把它落底以後，大家還是回歸到基本面去看問題。"],["林委員德福：主委，因為川普政策目前帶來的不確定性反映出對未來整個經濟負面的疑慮，所以股市向下震盪也屬正常，請問不確定的政策會不會對經濟產生一些負面遞延的效應？"],["彭主任委員金隆：其實在學理上不確定本身代表了機會跟威脅的均等關係，所以實際上不確定在某種程度上也是代表一個機會點，就像也有人提到不確定的確定理論，他的意思是說，面對不確定你必須採取相對應可能比較確定的一些作法，我想市場永遠面對不確定，市場最不缺的就是不確定，我們就是要從資訊充分揭露以及整個交易制度健全的方面去著手。"],["林委員德福：主委，你說中長期看來將回歸基本面，請問主委，你所謂的中長期到底具體的條件有哪些？如果經濟呈現負面，你認為整個回歸基本面的台股將會呈現哪種狀態？"],["彭主任委員金隆：其實我覺得基本面表現在很多面向上，比如我們有請我們的交易所關注過去各個產業歷年來營收成長的變化，我們長期觀察臺灣這麼多產業，在將近三十個產業別裡面，大概大部分都是營收持續成長，比如我最近收到訊息有25個產業是成長的，大概6、7個是呈現衰退，這個部分就是一個基本面很好的呈現，我想這也反映在臺灣股市的韌性上面。"],["林委員德福：所以主委很有信心是不是？"],["彭主任委員金隆：對於我們的資本市場，我一直覺得我們站在監理者的角度來看的話，對於這個制度我們永遠保持戒慎恐懼，但我們一定是小心應對。"],["林委員德福：主委，因為美國宣布將開徵對等關稅，根據媒體報導，印度、越南被點名可能列入骯髒15國的名單，預計整個國銀在當地放款的動能將受到衝擊。請問主委，4月2日川普將公布的關稅清單，對本國銀行海外分行放款動態會發生哪些衝擊呢？"],["彭主任委員金隆：面對這樣的變化，我們也很快速地去了解我們國銀在海外放款的狀況，對於可能會被點名的這些國家地區的放款，其實都在我們覺得可控的比例，這個比例占全體國銀的放款比例並沒有很高，我們會持續地關注，但是這個議題我們……"],["林委員德福：你認為這些海外分行是不是有哪些因應的方法？有沒有？"],["彭主任委員金隆：針對這部分，因為加徵關稅以後一定會使得它某些特定產業的出口競爭力變差，在出口競爭力變差以後，當然未來它營收的部分可能也會受到影響，我們銀行在做放貸時有一定的SOP，我想這些他們會逐步的考慮進去。"],["林委員德福：主委，金控從事海外放款三大主體包括銀行海外分行、OBU（國際金融業務分行）及租賃公司，請問主委，你認為在這三大主體海外的放款業務當中，哪個主體受到關稅戰的衝擊最大？"],["彭主任委員金隆：當然這要看不同地區，因為現在關稅戰並不是全面式的，比如說我們在全球分工的時候，有些國家或地區專注在某些領域上，雖然它可能會因此受到影響，但我們要看銀行放款的對象是誰，這很難一概而論。不過我們都會督促我們的國銀要密切注意國際情勢的變化，我們強調分散風險，這部分是我們應對不確定因素最重要的方法之一。"],["林委員德福：主委，根據中華信評分析，公股銀行與民營銀行皆在尋求較高利差的海外市場區域，但今年整個政策變數不確定性風險非常高，在風險可控的範圍內採取審慎策略，策略的不確定性也增添金融業整個海外市場獲利的風險。請問主委，選擇採取調整放款不同區域成長比重，或者利用全球產業變遷以及供應鏈移轉的商機，同時適時調整整個放款組合，你認為哪種方式比較能夠因應關稅戰下的衝擊？"],["彭主任委員金隆：我想其中有很多方法，分散絕對是一個很有效的方法，產業別的分散、地區別的分散，還有業務範圍的分散，我想站在風險管理的角度，分散永遠是我們最常用而且比較容易取得的方法。"],["林委員德福：最後，因為高利率環境以及疫情後商辦出租率下降，112年第4季就出現國銀通報海外不動產授信重大逾放案，導致去年發生歐美商辦授信踩雷。請問主委，你認為在川普政策不確定性下的海外市場，授信踩雷的機率會不會提高？"],["彭主任委員金隆：過去我們也關注到這個議題，主要是因為疫情過後對商辦的需求會下降，這部分當然每次的因素是不一樣，所以我們會持續來關注這個問題。"],["林委員德福：最重要就是如何避免踩雷，謝謝。"],["彭主任委員金隆：謝謝委員。"],["主席：謝謝林德福委員的質詢。","下一位請吳秉叡委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":478,"meet_id":"委員會-11-3-20-4","speakers":["賴士葆","林德福","吳秉叡","顏寬恒","郭國文","賴惠員","李彥秀","鍾佳濱","李坤城","林思銘","黃珊珊","羅明才","陳玉珍","王世堅","張啓楷","徐欣瑩","邱志偉","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":419,"meetingDate":["2025-03-26"],"gazette_id":"1143101","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1143101_00008"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期財政委員會第4次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請金融監督管理委員會彭主任委員金隆率所屬機關首長暨中央存款保險股份有限公司、監管相\n關機構有關之財團法人、臺灣證券交易所股份有限公司、臺灣期貨交易所股份有限公司、臺灣集\n中保管結算所股份有限公司等董事長、總經理列席業務報告，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1143101_00007"}}}