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{\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 581.46, \"end\": 581.76, \"score\": 0.933}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"整\", \"start\": 581.76, \"end\": 581.941, \"score\": 0.996}, {\"word\": \"合\", \"start\": 581.941, \"end\": 582.522, \"score\": 0.966}, {\"word\": \"作\", \"start\": 582.522, \"end\": 582.882, \"score\": 0.919}, {\"word\": \"業\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 582.882, \"end\": 583.003, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 583.003, \"end\": 583.203, \"score\": 0.9}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"非\", \"start\": 583.203, \"end\": 583.323, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"常\", \"start\": 583.323, \"end\": 583.503, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"重\", \"start\": 583.503, \"end\": 583.664, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"要\", \"start\": 583.664, \"end\": 583.864, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 583.864, \"end\": 584.205, \"score\": 0.885}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 584.205, \"end\": 584.285, \"score\": 0.92}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 584.285, \"end\": 584.465, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"提\", \"start\": 584.465, \"end\": 584.585, \"score\": 0.988}, {\"word\": \"出\", \"start\": 584.585, \"end\": 584.725, \"score\": 0.871}, {\"word\": \"建\", \"start\": 584.725, \"end\": 584.866, \"score\": 0.969}, {\"word\": \"言\", \"start\": 584.866, \"end\": 585.126, \"score\": 0.956}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"部\", \"start\": 585.126, \"end\": 585.146, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"長\"}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:00,350 --> 00:00:07,243\n有请经济部请外交部好了外交部先外交部领部长先经济部稍后谢谢\n\n2\n00:00:13,023 --> 00:00:36,861\n部長早安委員長在這個國際動態變化的情勢裡面唯一不變的就是持續變化因此對於我們政府對於這個有關關稅的挑戰如何因應這其實就是一個大挑戰因為我們沒有辦法做預應所以我們在這邊提出來那如何預應呢預應是fullspectrum是全面向的\n\n3\n00:00:37,421 --> 00:00:54,885\n他没有办法对单一问题做出细节因此我在今天拜读了经济部还有外交部还有其他部会的文件以后那有些东西对我们来讲是一种互动学习有些部分我用下面的方式提供一个建言请参考\n\n4\n00:01:00,125 --> 00:01:21,394\n這個根據您的這個報告文內啊就是4月6號總統向國人提出的五項應變政策以及我們提出的具體方法啊我這邊這個文字就不足以再走一遍我把它列出來提供出來給大家看一下這張圖啊就是我們解析啊強權競合的作業流程圖\n\n5\n00:01:22,984 --> 00:01:33,958\n川普就任以来比较过去他从45任再加上拜登46任到现在47任他所有运用的方法手段产生的巨变都在这里面\n\n6\n00:01:36,519 --> 00:02:01,594\n所以如果你只是用经济问题用军事问题用外交问题你是切开来个别谈你可以看出来他前面提出的关税以及后面所出的这个图里面不管他的对等公平惩罚两层四层六层八层这是随他讲的九十天十五天十天随他讲这个都在变所以我们如果没有一个longtermstrategy\n\n7\n00:02:02,045 --> 00:02:20,381\n把外交經濟軍事政治面涵蓋進來像這個圖表列出來的退出國際組織廢除不合理的條約關閉領事館持續貿易戰晶片法案分裂市場脫不脫鉤今天裡面講的中美競合\n\n8\n00:02:24,940 --> 00:02:37,323\n這是competition跟cooperation才產生的這個competition那就表示他不會脫鉤了嘛所以在這個情勢判斷裡面他很多在談可以把底線露出來但是明天又變化了\n\n9\n00:02:38,246 --> 00:03:03,989\n所以中美貿易對話他是不會斷的那美國跟所有國家的對話也不會斷但是為什麼先出狠招這叫引蛇出洞先看你們有什麼招然後我再把你們做區隔區分所以他巴拿馬的問題叫他退出一帶一路但高層領導直接我跟某某是好朋友雖然今天常態性的行政對話中斷元首可以對話\n\n10\n00:03:05,270 --> 00:03:22,763\n对完话以后明天就可以变化退出气候协定退出世界卫生组织退出人权组织退出教科文退出UNESCO随他讲同一个时间法律施压同时跟菲律宾跟日本军事演习\n\n11\n00:03:24,312 --> 00:03:52,027\n表態所以這個scope就顯示出來了如果我們沒有一個完整的戰略觀而只是針對單一問題做反應你永遠在react可是你的醜頭的籌碼跟你的時間是有限的90天內要把所有東西分析出來去對口能夠排序我們面臨是一個挑戰所以同樣的我們的行政院排出了這個條款這是正面的\n\n12\n00:03:53,083 --> 00:04:19,765\n我们也肯定的但是从负面来看你的风险在哪里我给一个方法论美国开启全球贸易制裁与中共竞合下我外交布局机因应没有预应这一次大家看到了台积电的特质正好把地缘经济地缘政治地缘战略整个结合一起你看这个图里面这个供应链是互为上下层而不是可以剪断切割的\n\n13\n00:04:22,489 --> 00:04:42,526\n所以地緣經濟你考慮的人口位置貿易源頭產業鏈路地緣戰略這裡面美方考慮的如果海峽起衝突台積電會不會被摧毀全世界會不會斷斷的晶圓的來源所以軍事戰略威澤嚇阻維護利益另外地緣政治國家利益合縱連橫雙軌雙標所以雙軌雙標就是在\n\n14\n00:04:46,840 --> 00:05:14,898\n这个川普总统里面他用的很厉害的就是dualstrategydoublestandard我跟不同的人不同的标准不同的谈但是呢我可以把它交换所以从这个里面我们看出一个结果我们需要有一个国安战略国家安全战略的引领全民群策群力形塑寒藏牵动邻国的利益营造区域平衡巩固贸易源头强化产业的链路多元生产生存的缝隙\n\n15\n00:05:16,004 --> 00:05:43,548\n以有利的地缘的政治经济科技环境进而善于外交的布局精进军事能量要运用以小牵大虚实联动正齐相生的合众联盟多轨并进的策略维护国家安全利益所以我们这次看到这个英法德国对于这个这个贸易的关税的问题跟这个所谓的西班牙跟意大利是不同步的\n\n16\n00:05:44,605 --> 00:06:03,475\n我們看到了一個什麼同路不同道同道不同德同德不同心同心不同人同人不同調所以不要用口號來喊同路人根本不重要太lowend了你去看他的價值觀去看他的法律所以我們今天尊重的是我們講的民主\n\n17\n00:06:04,434 --> 00:06:24,055\n人权法治可是在这个国际变动的局势里面这三个它的优秀不一样它不是同步重视的所以基于这个考虑我们需要一个长期的战略跨部会的沟通协调这非常重要那刚刚讲经过多元管道这是一个正面看法可是feedback以后的如何fusing\n\n18\n00:06:24,781 --> 00:06:34,160\n要收敛这是另外一个挑战因此我把今天做一个最后的结论就是外交部在提出针对总统五项里面有八个做法\n\n19\n00:06:35,051 --> 00:06:57,189\n可是呢你必須要有主觀客觀為觀宏觀樂觀悲觀前瞻反思同時要考慮到這是政府還是政黨的政策這是動態淨碳輿論學術經濟國安是個案還是通案是科技還是醫療今天還講到藥品的問題是全面還是局部長期短期所以你會發現產生多少變化量啊\n\n20\n00:07:01,595 --> 00:07:13,605\n512个变化量所以当你分析的参数参考参数越多我们犯下错误决策的几率就越低不是谁绝对对谁绝对对的错而是我们现在要做\n\n21\n00:07:14,790 --> 00:07:39,121\n避险为先持有保态要长期规划统筹执行所以这里面cover到了目的方法手段你设定的目标选择的方法运用的手段包括对美关系两岸关系国际协商内外折冲你是要金援支撑台湾你要确保能源你要社会的全任性你要国防的战力强所以在这个里面它已经超出了单一\n\n22\n00:07:39,901 --> 00:08:07,693\n外交經濟或者是它是一個完整的國安考量我特別用這個圖像請這個部長做一個參考部長請您指導好這個委員的高見真的我受益良多特別是把八項具體的做法一一對應那麼確實我們有一個總和外交那搭配總統他的大戰略今天的這一個彭博社的這一個文章很清楚這個路徑圖\n\n23\n00:08:09,019 --> 00:08:19,440\n所以川普我們要對齊他他在講什麼我們要聽的對再來我們事實上要去對接他\n\n24\n00:08:21,274 --> 00:08:42,980\n比如他的貿易政策他的投資政策他的所有的政策都有長年的主張跟最近的宣布再來我覺得就是到對應你要有措施所以這個從對齊對接到對應那我們才能夠去這個就算是一個國際的賽局那因為美中的抗衡\n\n25\n00:08:44,252 --> 00:09:10,104\n所以使這一次對我們有威脅也有機會因為紅色供應鏈跟美國會是兩套不同的系統而台灣在所謂的非紅的供應鏈裡面我們有不可或缺的角色而這個供應鏈不只是純粹從所謂的投資或者是貿易它也是個安全的戰略它甚至是一個高科技在包括未來的AI跟晶片上面的一個\n\n26\n00:09:11,175 --> 00:09:30,394\n美中的抗衡所以台灣呢我們怎麼樣去對應包括美國包括中國包括其他各國這個就是我們剛剛委員提到的一個戰略我們會根據委員的這個方法論好好再來檢視我們現在做的然後予以做必要的這一個增補或者是調整\n\n27\n00:09:33,126 --> 00:09:45,146\n謝謝部長我們也會全力支持我們國家對外的政策那麼在這個情勢下就是說資源有限時間有限我們整合作業是一個非常重要的以上提出建言謝謝部長\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n350\t7243\t有请经济部请外交部好了外交部先外交部领部长先经济部稍后谢谢\n13023\t36861\t部長早安委員長在這個國際動態變化的情勢裡面唯一不變的就是持續變化因此對於我們政府對於這個有關關稅的挑戰如何因應這其實就是一個大挑戰因為我們沒有辦法做預應所以我們在這邊提出來那如何預應呢預應是full spectrum是全面向的\n37421\t54885\t他没有办法对单一问题做出细节因此我在今天拜读了经济部还有外交部还有其他部会的文件以后那有些东西对我们来讲是一种互动学习有些部分我用下面的方式提供一个建言请参考\n60125\t81394\t這個根據您的這個報告文內啊就是4月6號總統向國人提出的五項應變政策以及我們提出的具體方法啊我這邊這個文字就不足以再走一遍我把它列出來提供出來給大家看一下這張圖啊就是我們解析啊強權競合的作業流程圖\n82984\t93958\t川普就任以来比较过去他从45任再加上拜登46任到现在47任他所有运用的方法手段产生的巨变都在这里面\n96519\t121594\t所以如果你只是用经济问题用军事问题用外交问题你是切开来个别谈你可以看出来他前面提出的关税以及后面所出的这个图里面不管他的对等公平惩罚两层四层六层八层这是随他讲的九十天十五天十天随他讲这个都在变所以我们如果没有一个long term strategy\n122045\t140381\t把外交經濟軍事政治面涵蓋進來像這個圖表列出來的退出國際組織廢除不合理的條約關閉領事館持續貿易戰晶片法案分裂市場脫不脫鉤今天裡面講的中美競合\n144940\t157323\t這是competition跟cooperation才產生的這個competition那就表示他不會脫鉤了嘛所以在這個情勢判斷裡面他很多在談可以把底線露出來但是明天又變化了\n158246\t183989\t所以中美貿易對話他是不會斷的那美國跟所有國家的對話也不會斷但是為什麼先出狠招這叫引蛇出洞先看你們有什麼招然後我再把你們做區隔區分所以他巴拿馬的問題叫他退出一帶一路但高層領導直接我跟某某是好朋友雖然今天常態性的行政對話中斷元首可以對話\n185270\t202763\t对完话以后明天就可以变化退出气候协定退出世界卫生组织退出人权组织退出教科文退出UNESCO随他讲同一个时间法律施压同时跟菲律宾跟日本军事演习\n204312\t232027\t表態所以這個scope就顯示出來了如果我們沒有一個完整的戰略觀而只是針對單一問題做反應你永遠在react可是你的醜頭的籌碼跟你的時間是有限的90天內要把所有東西分析出來去對口能夠排序我們面臨是一個挑戰所以同樣的我們的行政院排出了這個條款這是正面的\n233083\t259765\t我们也肯定的但是从负面来看你的风险在哪里我给一个方法论美国开启全球贸易制裁与中共竞合下我外交布局机因应没有预应这一次大家看到了台积电的特质正好把地缘经济地缘政治地缘战略整个结合一起你看这个图里面这个供应链是互为上下层而不是可以剪断切割的\n262489\t282526\t所以地緣經濟你考慮的人口位置貿易源頭產業鏈路地緣戰略這裡面美方考慮的如果海峽起衝突台積電會不會被摧毀全世界會不會斷斷的晶圓的來源所以軍事戰略威澤嚇阻維護利益另外地緣政治國家利益合縱連橫雙軌雙標所以雙軌雙標就是在\n286840\t314898\t这个川普总统里面他用的很厉害的就是dual strategy double standard我跟不同的人不同的标准不同的谈但是呢我可以把它交换所以从这个里面我们看出一个结果我们需要有一个国安战略国家安全战略的引领全民群策群力形塑寒藏牵动邻国的利益营造区域平衡巩固贸易源头强化产业的链路多元生产生存的缝隙\n316004\t343548\t以有利的地缘的政治经济科技环境进而善于外交的布局精进军事能量要运用以小牵大虚实联动正齐相生的合众联盟多轨并进的策略维护国家安全利益所以我们这次看到这个英法德国对于这个这个贸易的关税的问题跟这个所谓的西班牙跟意大利是不同步的\n344605\t363475\t我們看到了一個什麼同路不同道同道不同德同德不同心同心不同人同人不同調所以不要用口號來喊同路人根本不重要太low end了你去看他的價值觀去看他的法律所以我們今天尊重的是我們講的民主\n364434\t384055\t人权法治可是在这个国际变动的局势里面这三个它的优秀不一样它不是同步重视的所以基于这个考虑我们需要一个长期的战略跨部会的沟通协调这非常重要那刚刚讲经过多元管道这是一个正面看法可是feedback以后的如何fusing\n384781\t394160\t要收敛这是另外一个挑战因此我把今天做一个最后的结论就是外交部在提出针对总统五项里面有八个做法\n395051\t417189\t可是呢你必須要有主觀客觀為觀宏觀樂觀悲觀前瞻反思同時要考慮到這是政府還是政黨的政策這是動態淨碳輿論學術經濟國安是個案還是通案是科技還是醫療今天還講到藥品的問題是全面還是局部長期短期所以你會發現產生多少變化量啊\n421595\t433605\t512个变化量所以当你分析的参数参考参数越多我们犯下错误决策的几率就越低不是谁绝对对谁绝对对的错而是我们现在要做\n434790\t459121\t避险为先 持有保态 要长期规划 统筹执行所以这里面cover到了目的方法手段你设定的目标 选择的方法 运用的手段包括对美关系 两岸关系 国际协商 内外折冲你是要金援支撑台湾 你要确保能源你要社会的全任性 你要国防的战力强所以在这个里面它已经超出了单一\n459901\t487693\t外交經濟或者是它是一個完整的國安考量我特別用這個圖像請這個部長做一個參考部長請您指導好 這個委員的高見真的我受益良多特別是把八項具體的做法一一對應那麼確實我們有一個總和外交那搭配總統他的大戰略今天的這一個彭博社的這一個文章很清楚這個路徑圖\n489019\t499440\t所以川普我們要對齊他他在講什麼我們要聽的對再來我們事實上要去對接他\n501274\t522980\t比如他的貿易政策他的投資政策他的所有的政策都有長年的主張跟最近的宣布再來我覺得就是到對應你要有措施所以這個從對齊對接到對應那我們才能夠去這個就算是一個國際的賽局那因為美中的抗衡\n524252\t550104\t所以使這一次對我們有威脅也有機會因為紅色供應鏈跟美國會是兩套不同的系統而台灣在所謂的非紅的供應鏈裡面我們有不可或缺的角色而這個供應鏈不只是純粹從所謂的投資或者是貿易它也是個安全的戰略它甚至是一個高科技在包括未來的AI跟晶片上面的一個\n551175\t570394\t美中的抗衡所以台灣呢我們怎麼樣去對應包括美國包括中國包括其他各國這個就是我們剛剛委員提到的一個戰略我們會根據委員的這個方法論好好再來檢視我們現在做的然後予以做必要的這一個增補或者是調整\n573126\t585146\t謝謝部長我們也會全力支持我們國家對外的政策那麼在這個情勢下就是說資源有限時間有限我們整合作業是一個非常重要的以上提出建言謝謝部長\n","txt":"有请经济部请外交部好了外交部先外交部领部长先经济部稍后谢谢\n部長早安委員長在這個國際動態變化的情勢裡面唯一不變的就是持續變化因此對於我們政府對於這個有關關稅的挑戰如何因應這其實就是一個大挑戰因為我們沒有辦法做預應所以我們在這邊提出來那如何預應呢預應是full spectrum是全面向的\n他没有办法对单一问题做出细节因此我在今天拜读了经济部还有外交部还有其他部会的文件以后那有些东西对我们来讲是一种互动学习有些部分我用下面的方式提供一个建言请参考\n這個根據您的這個報告文內啊就是4月6號總統向國人提出的五項應變政策以及我們提出的具體方法啊我這邊這個文字就不足以再走一遍我把它列出來提供出來給大家看一下這張圖啊就是我們解析啊強權競合的作業流程圖\n川普就任以来比较过去他从45任再加上拜登46任到现在47任他所有运用的方法手段产生的巨变都在这里面\n所以如果你只是用经济问题用军事问题用外交问题你是切开来个别谈你可以看出来他前面提出的关税以及后面所出的这个图里面不管他的对等公平惩罚两层四层六层八层这是随他讲的九十天十五天十天随他讲这个都在变所以我们如果没有一个long term strategy\n把外交經濟軍事政治面涵蓋進來像這個圖表列出來的退出國際組織廢除不合理的條約關閉領事館持續貿易戰晶片法案分裂市場脫不脫鉤今天裡面講的中美競合\n這是competition跟cooperation才產生的這個competition那就表示他不會脫鉤了嘛所以在這個情勢判斷裡面他很多在談可以把底線露出來但是明天又變化了\n所以中美貿易對話他是不會斷的那美國跟所有國家的對話也不會斷但是為什麼先出狠招這叫引蛇出洞先看你們有什麼招然後我再把你們做區隔區分所以他巴拿馬的問題叫他退出一帶一路但高層領導直接我跟某某是好朋友雖然今天常態性的行政對話中斷元首可以對話\n对完话以后明天就可以变化退出气候协定退出世界卫生组织退出人权组织退出教科文退出UNESCO随他讲同一个时间法律施压同时跟菲律宾跟日本军事演习\n表態所以這個scope就顯示出來了如果我們沒有一個完整的戰略觀而只是針對單一問題做反應你永遠在react可是你的醜頭的籌碼跟你的時間是有限的90天內要把所有東西分析出來去對口能夠排序我們面臨是一個挑戰所以同樣的我們的行政院排出了這個條款這是正面的\n我们也肯定的但是从负面来看你的风险在哪里我给一个方法论美国开启全球贸易制裁与中共竞合下我外交布局机因应没有预应这一次大家看到了台积电的特质正好把地缘经济地缘政治地缘战略整个结合一起你看这个图里面这个供应链是互为上下层而不是可以剪断切割的\n所以地緣經濟你考慮的人口位置貿易源頭產業鏈路地緣戰略這裡面美方考慮的如果海峽起衝突台積電會不會被摧毀全世界會不會斷斷的晶圓的來源所以軍事戰略威澤嚇阻維護利益另外地緣政治國家利益合縱連橫雙軌雙標所以雙軌雙標就是在\n这个川普总统里面他用的很厉害的就是dual strategy double standard我跟不同的人不同的标准不同的谈但是呢我可以把它交换所以从这个里面我们看出一个结果我们需要有一个国安战略国家安全战略的引领全民群策群力形塑寒藏牵动邻国的利益营造区域平衡巩固贸易源头强化产业的链路多元生产生存的缝隙\n以有利的地缘的政治经济科技环境进而善于外交的布局精进军事能量要运用以小牵大虚实联动正齐相生的合众联盟多轨并进的策略维护国家安全利益所以我们这次看到这个英法德国对于这个这个贸易的关税的问题跟这个所谓的西班牙跟意大利是不同步的\n我們看到了一個什麼同路不同道同道不同德同德不同心同心不同人同人不同調所以不要用口號來喊同路人根本不重要太low end了你去看他的價值觀去看他的法律所以我們今天尊重的是我們講的民主\n人权法治可是在这个国际变动的局势里面这三个它的优秀不一样它不是同步重视的所以基于这个考虑我们需要一个长期的战略跨部会的沟通协调这非常重要那刚刚讲经过多元管道这是一个正面看法可是feedback以后的如何fusing\n要收敛这是另外一个挑战因此我把今天做一个最后的结论就是外交部在提出针对总统五项里面有八个做法\n可是呢你必須要有主觀客觀為觀宏觀樂觀悲觀前瞻反思同時要考慮到這是政府還是政黨的政策這是動態淨碳輿論學術經濟國安是個案還是通案是科技還是醫療今天還講到藥品的問題是全面還是局部長期短期所以你會發現產生多少變化量啊\n512个变化量所以当你分析的参数参考参数越多我们犯下错误决策的几率就越低不是谁绝对对谁绝对对的错而是我们现在要做\n避险为先 持有保态 要长期规划 统筹执行所以这里面cover到了目的方法手段你设定的目标 选择的方法 运用的手段包括对美关系 两岸关系 国际协商 内外折冲你是要金援支撑台湾 你要确保能源你要社会的全任性 你要国防的战力强所以在这个里面它已经超出了单一\n外交經濟或者是它是一個完整的國安考量我特別用這個圖像請這個部長做一個參考部長請您指導好 這個委員的高見真的我受益良多特別是把八項具體的做法一一對應那麼確實我們有一個總和外交那搭配總統他的大戰略今天的這一個彭博社的這一個文章很清楚這個路徑圖\n所以川普我們要對齊他他在講什麼我們要聽的對再來我們事實上要去對接他\n比如他的貿易政策他的投資政策他的所有的政策都有長年的主張跟最近的宣布再來我覺得就是到對應你要有措施所以這個從對齊對接到對應那我們才能夠去這個就算是一個國際的賽局那因為美中的抗衡\n所以使這一次對我們有威脅也有機會因為紅色供應鏈跟美國會是兩套不同的系統而台灣在所謂的非紅的供應鏈裡面我們有不可或缺的角色而這個供應鏈不只是純粹從所謂的投資或者是貿易它也是個安全的戰略它甚至是一個高科技在包括未來的AI跟晶片上面的一個\n美中的抗衡所以台灣呢我們怎麼樣去對應包括美國包括中國包括其他各國這個就是我們剛剛委員提到的一個戰略我們會根據委員的這個方法論好好再來檢視我們現在做的然後予以做必要的這一個增補或者是調整\n謝謝部長我們也會全力支持我們國家對外的政策那麼在這個情勢下就是說資源有限時間有限我們整合作業是一個非常重要的以上提出建言謝謝部長\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.350 --> 00:07.243\n有请经济部请外交部好了外交部先外交部领部长先经济部稍后谢谢\n\n00:13.023 --> 00:36.861\n部長早安委員長在這個國際動態變化的情勢裡面唯一不變的就是持續變化因此對於我們政府對於這個有關關稅的挑戰如何因應這其實就是一個大挑戰因為我們沒有辦法做預應所以我們在這邊提出來那如何預應呢預應是fullspectrum是全面向的\n\n00:37.421 --> 00:54.885\n他没有办法对单一问题做出细节因此我在今天拜读了经济部还有外交部还有其他部会的文件以后那有些东西对我们来讲是一种互动学习有些部分我用下面的方式提供一个建言请参考\n\n01:00.125 --> 01:21.394\n這個根據您的這個報告文內啊就是4月6號總統向國人提出的五項應變政策以及我們提出的具體方法啊我這邊這個文字就不足以再走一遍我把它列出來提供出來給大家看一下這張圖啊就是我們解析啊強權競合的作業流程圖\n\n01:22.984 --> 01:33.958\n川普就任以来比较过去他从45任再加上拜登46任到现在47任他所有运用的方法手段产生的巨变都在这里面\n\n01:36.519 --> 02:01.594\n所以如果你只是用经济问题用军事问题用外交问题你是切开来个别谈你可以看出来他前面提出的关税以及后面所出的这个图里面不管他的对等公平惩罚两层四层六层八层这是随他讲的九十天十五天十天随他讲这个都在变所以我们如果没有一个longtermstrategy\n\n02:02.045 --> 02:20.381\n把外交經濟軍事政治面涵蓋進來像這個圖表列出來的退出國際組織廢除不合理的條約關閉領事館持續貿易戰晶片法案分裂市場脫不脫鉤今天裡面講的中美競合\n\n02:24.940 --> 02:37.323\n這是competition跟cooperation才產生的這個competition那就表示他不會脫鉤了嘛所以在這個情勢判斷裡面他很多在談可以把底線露出來但是明天又變化了\n\n02:38.246 --> 03:03.989\n所以中美貿易對話他是不會斷的那美國跟所有國家的對話也不會斷但是為什麼先出狠招這叫引蛇出洞先看你們有什麼招然後我再把你們做區隔區分所以他巴拿馬的問題叫他退出一帶一路但高層領導直接我跟某某是好朋友雖然今天常態性的行政對話中斷元首可以對話\n\n03:05.270 --> 03:22.763\n对完话以后明天就可以变化退出气候协定退出世界卫生组织退出人权组织退出教科文退出UNESCO随他讲同一个时间法律施压同时跟菲律宾跟日本军事演习\n\n03:24.312 --> 03:52.027\n表態所以這個scope就顯示出來了如果我們沒有一個完整的戰略觀而只是針對單一問題做反應你永遠在react可是你的醜頭的籌碼跟你的時間是有限的90天內要把所有東西分析出來去對口能夠排序我們面臨是一個挑戰所以同樣的我們的行政院排出了這個條款這是正面的\n\n03:53.083 --> 04:19.765\n我们也肯定的但是从负面来看你的风险在哪里我给一个方法论美国开启全球贸易制裁与中共竞合下我外交布局机因应没有预应这一次大家看到了台积电的特质正好把地缘经济地缘政治地缘战略整个结合一起你看这个图里面这个供应链是互为上下层而不是可以剪断切割的\n\n04:22.489 --> 04:42.526\n所以地緣經濟你考慮的人口位置貿易源頭產業鏈路地緣戰略這裡面美方考慮的如果海峽起衝突台積電會不會被摧毀全世界會不會斷斷的晶圓的來源所以軍事戰略威澤嚇阻維護利益另外地緣政治國家利益合縱連橫雙軌雙標所以雙軌雙標就是在\n\n04:46.840 --> 05:14.898\n这个川普总统里面他用的很厉害的就是dualstrategydoublestandard我跟不同的人不同的标准不同的谈但是呢我可以把它交换所以从这个里面我们看出一个结果我们需要有一个国安战略国家安全战略的引领全民群策群力形塑寒藏牵动邻国的利益营造区域平衡巩固贸易源头强化产业的链路多元生产生存的缝隙\n\n05:16.004 --> 05:43.548\n以有利的地缘的政治经济科技环境进而善于外交的布局精进军事能量要运用以小牵大虚实联动正齐相生的合众联盟多轨并进的策略维护国家安全利益所以我们这次看到这个英法德国对于这个这个贸易的关税的问题跟这个所谓的西班牙跟意大利是不同步的\n\n05:44.605 --> 06:03.475\n我們看到了一個什麼同路不同道同道不同德同德不同心同心不同人同人不同調所以不要用口號來喊同路人根本不重要太lowend了你去看他的價值觀去看他的法律所以我們今天尊重的是我們講的民主\n\n06:04.434 --> 06:24.055\n人权法治可是在这个国际变动的局势里面这三个它的优秀不一样它不是同步重视的所以基于这个考虑我们需要一个长期的战略跨部会的沟通协调这非常重要那刚刚讲经过多元管道这是一个正面看法可是feedback以后的如何fusing\n\n06:24.781 --> 06:34.160\n要收敛这是另外一个挑战因此我把今天做一个最后的结论就是外交部在提出针对总统五项里面有八个做法\n\n06:35.051 --> 06:57.189\n可是呢你必須要有主觀客觀為觀宏觀樂觀悲觀前瞻反思同時要考慮到這是政府還是政黨的政策這是動態淨碳輿論學術經濟國安是個案還是通案是科技還是醫療今天還講到藥品的問題是全面還是局部長期短期所以你會發現產生多少變化量啊\n\n07:01.595 --> 07:13.605\n512个变化量所以当你分析的参数参考参数越多我们犯下错误决策的几率就越低不是谁绝对对谁绝对对的错而是我们现在要做\n\n07:14.790 --> 07:39.121\n避险为先持有保态要长期规划统筹执行所以这里面cover到了目的方法手段你设定的目标选择的方法运用的手段包括对美关系两岸关系国际协商内外折冲你是要金援支撑台湾你要确保能源你要社会的全任性你要国防的战力强所以在这个里面它已经超出了单一\n\n07:39.901 --> 08:07.693\n外交經濟或者是它是一個完整的國安考量我特別用這個圖像請這個部長做一個參考部長請您指導好這個委員的高見真的我受益良多特別是把八項具體的做法一一對應那麼確實我們有一個總和外交那搭配總統他的大戰略今天的這一個彭博社的這一個文章很清楚這個路徑圖\n\n08:09.019 --> 08:19.440\n所以川普我們要對齊他他在講什麼我們要聽的對再來我們事實上要去對接他\n\n08:21.274 --> 08:42.980\n比如他的貿易政策他的投資政策他的所有的政策都有長年的主張跟最近的宣布再來我覺得就是到對應你要有措施所以這個從對齊對接到對應那我們才能夠去這個就算是一個國際的賽局那因為美中的抗衡\n\n08:44.252 --> 09:10.104\n所以使這一次對我們有威脅也有機會因為紅色供應鏈跟美國會是兩套不同的系統而台灣在所謂的非紅的供應鏈裡面我們有不可或缺的角色而這個供應鏈不只是純粹從所謂的投資或者是貿易它也是個安全的戰略它甚至是一個高科技在包括未來的AI跟晶片上面的一個\n\n09:11.175 --> 09:30.394\n美中的抗衡所以台灣呢我們怎麼樣去對應包括美國包括中國包括其他各國這個就是我們剛剛委員提到的一個戰略我們會根據委員的這個方法論好好再來檢視我們現在做的然後予以做必要的這一個增補或者是調整\n\n09:33.126 --> 09:45.146\n謝謝部長我們也會全力支持我們國家對外的政策那麼在這個情勢下就是說資源有限時間有限我們整合作業是一個非常重要的以上提出建言謝謝部長\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.35,"end":7.243,"text":"有请经济部请外交部好了外交部先外交部领部长先经济部稍后谢谢"},{"start":13.023,"end":36.861,"text":"部長早安委員長在這個國際動態變化的情勢裡面唯一不變的就是持續變化因此對於我們政府對於這個有關關稅的挑戰如何因應這其實就是一個大挑戰因為我們沒有辦法做預應所以我們在這邊提出來那如何預應呢預應是full spectrum是全面向的"},{"start":37.421,"end":54.885,"text":"他没有办法对单一问题做出细节因此我在今天拜读了经济部还有外交部还有其他部会的文件以后那有些东西对我们来讲是一种互动学习有些部分我用下面的方式提供一个建言请参考"},{"start":60.125,"end":81.394,"text":"這個根據您的這個報告文內啊就是4月6號總統向國人提出的五項應變政策以及我們提出的具體方法啊我這邊這個文字就不足以再走一遍我把它列出來提供出來給大家看一下這張圖啊就是我們解析啊強權競合的作業流程圖"},{"start":82.984,"end":93.958,"text":"川普就任以来比较过去他从45任再加上拜登46任到现在47任他所有运用的方法手段产生的巨变都在这里面"},{"start":96.519,"end":121.594,"text":"所以如果你只是用经济问题用军事问题用外交问题你是切开来个别谈你可以看出来他前面提出的关税以及后面所出的这个图里面不管他的对等公平惩罚两层四层六层八层这是随他讲的九十天十五天十天随他讲这个都在变所以我们如果没有一个long term 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這個委員的高見真的我受益良多特別是把八項具體的做法一一對應那麼確實我們有一個總和外交那搭配總統他的大戰略今天的這一個彭博社的這一個文章很清楚這個路徑圖"},{"start":489.019,"end":499.44,"text":"所以川普我們要對齊他他在講什麼我們要聽的對再來我們事實上要去對接他"},{"start":501.274,"end":522.98,"text":"比如他的貿易政策他的投資政策他的所有的政策都有長年的主張跟最近的宣布再來我覺得就是到對應你要有措施所以這個從對齊對接到對應那我們才能夠去這個就算是一個國際的賽局那因為美中的抗衡"},{"start":524.252,"end":550.104,"text":"所以使這一次對我們有威脅也有機會因為紅色供應鏈跟美國會是兩套不同的系統而台灣在所謂的非紅的供應鏈裡面我們有不可或缺的角色而這個供應鏈不只是純粹從所謂的投資或者是貿易它也是個安全的戰略它甚至是一個高科技在包括未來的AI跟晶片上面的一個"},{"start":551.175,"end":570.394,"text":"美中的抗衡所以台灣呢我們怎麼樣去對應包括美國包括中國包括其他各國這個就是我們剛剛委員提到的一個戰略我們會根據委員的這個方法論好好再來檢視我們現在做的然後予以做必要的這一個增補或者是調整"},{"start":573.126,"end":585.146,"text":"謝謝部長我們也會全力支持我們國家對外的政策那麼在這個情勢下就是說資源有限時間有限我們整合作業是一個非常重要的以上提出建言謝謝部長"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":155,"blocks":[["陳委員永康：（9時43分）主席，先有請外交部林部長，經濟部稍後，謝謝。"],["林部長佳龍：委員早。"],["陳委員永康：部長早安。在國際動態變化的情勢裡面，唯一不變的就是持續變化，因此政府對於關稅的挑戰如何因應，這其實就是大挑戰，因為我們沒有辦法做預應，所以我們在這邊提出來。那如何預應呢？預應是full 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standard，跟不同的人談，有不同的標準，但是可以把它交換。","從這裡面我們看出一個結果，就是我們需要有一個國家安全戰略的引領，全民群策群力，形塑涵藏「牽動鄰國利益，營造區域平衡，鞏固貿易源頭，強化產業鏈路，多元生存縫隙」，以有利地緣政治、經濟、科技環境，進而善於外交布局、精進軍事能量，運用以小牽大、虛實聯動、奇正相生的合縱連橫、多軌並進的策略，以維護國家安全利益。所以我們這次看到英、法、德國對於貿易關稅的問題跟西班牙、義大利是不同步的，也就是同路不同道、同道不同德、同德不同心、同心不同仁、同仁不同調，所以不要用口號來喊，同路人根本不重要，太low-end了，你要去看它的價值觀、去看它的法律。我們今天尊重的是我們講的民主、人權、法治，可是在這個變動的國際局勢裡面，這三者的優先順序不一樣，它不是同步重視的。基於這個考慮，我們需要一個長期的戰略、跨部會的溝通協調，這非常重要。","剛剛講經過多元管道，這是一個正面看法，可是要如何fusion（收斂）？這是另外一個挑戰。因此我今天要做一個最後的結論，就是外交部針對總統所說的5項應變策略提出了8個做法，可是你必須要有主觀、客觀、微觀、宏觀、樂觀、悲觀、前瞻和反思，同時要考慮到：這是政府還是政黨的政策、是動態還是靜態、是輿論還是學術、是經濟還是國安、是個案還是通案、是科技還是醫療（今天還講到藥品的問題）、是全面還是局部、是長期還是短期？所以你會發現這裡面產生多少變化量？有512個變化量！當你分析的、參考的參數越多，我們犯下錯誤決策的機率就越低，不是誰絕對對、誰絕對錯，而是我們現在要避險為先、持盈保泰，要長期規劃、統籌執行。因此這裡面cover到了目的、方法、手段，你設計的目標、選擇的方法、運用的手段，包括對美關係、兩岸關係、國際協商、內外折衷，你需要晶圓支撐臺灣，又要確保能源，還要社會全韌性和國防戰力強，在這裡面，它已經超出了單一的外交或者是經濟，它是一個完整的國安考量。","我特別用現在出示的這張圖像請部長做一個參考，請部長指導。"],["林部長佳龍：對於委員的高見，我真的受益良多，特別是把8項具體作法一一對應。確實，我們有一個總合外交，搭配總統的大戰略，彭博社今天的文章有一個很清楚的路徑圖，所以對於川普，我們要對齊他：他在講什麼，我們要聽對；其次是我們要去對接他：比如他的貿易政策、投資政策，他所有的政策都有長年的主張跟最近的宣布；再來我覺得就是對應：你要有措施。所以從對齊、對接到對應，我們才能夠去……這算是一個國際的賽局，因為美中的抗衡，使這次的事情對我們有威脅，也有機會，因為紅色供應鏈跟美國是兩套不同的系統，而臺灣在所謂的非紅供應鏈裡面有不可或缺的角色，而這個供應鏈不只是純粹的投資或貿易，它也是一個安全的戰略，它甚至是一個高科技，包括在未來的AI和晶片上面的美中抗衡。","臺灣怎麼樣去對應包括美國、包括中國、包括其他各國？這就是剛剛委員提到的一個戰略，我們會根據委員的這個方法論，再好好地檢視我們正在做的，做必要的增補或調整。"],["陳委員永康：謝謝部長，我們也會全力支持我們國家的對外政策，在這個資源有限、時間有限的情勢下，我們的整合作業是非常重要的。以上提出建言，謝謝部長。"],["主席：謝謝陳永康委員上台質詢。接下來由羅美玲委員上台質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":210,"meet_id":"委員會-11-3-35-7","speakers":["黃仁","王定宇","陳永康","羅美玲","馬文君","沈伯洋","徐巧芯","陳冠廷","楊瓊瓔","陳俊宇","林倩綺","林楚茵","李坤城","葉元之","林憶君"],"page_start":167,"meetingDate":["2025-04-10"],"gazette_id":"1143601","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1143601_00005"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期外交及國防委員會第7次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請外交部部長、經濟部次長、大陸委員會副主任委員、財政部次長、國家發展委員會副主任委\n員、行政院經貿談判辦公室副總談判代表、中央銀行副總裁報告「美國開啟全球貿易制裁及與中\n共競合下，我外交經貿戰略佈局及因應」，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1143601_00004"}}}