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\"text\": \"這個例子就是台積電這次我們看出來了它完全反映出把地緣經濟地緣政治地緣戰略串結成一個整體那在這個裡面的供應鏈裡面是相互供應鏈如果在這個時候把台積電的功能去掉\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"例\", \"start\": 1335.554, \"end\": 1335.734, \"score\": 0.97}, {\"word\": \"子\", \"start\": 1335.734, \"end\": 1336.015, \"score\": 0.933}, {\"word\": \"就\", \"start\": 1336.015, \"end\": 1336.135, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 1336.135, \"end\": 1336.315, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"台\", \"start\": 1336.315, \"end\": 1337.095, \"score\": 0.912}, {\"word\": \"積\"}, {\"word\": \"電\"}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"次\", \"start\": 1337.095, \"end\": 1337.235, \"score\": 0.859}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 1337.235, \"end\": 1337.476, \"score\": 0.917}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"看\", \"start\": 1337.476, \"end\": 1337.676, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"出\", \"start\": 1337.676, \"end\": 1337.916, \"score\": 0.915}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"了\", \"start\": 1337.916, \"end\": 1338.676, \"score\": 1.0}, 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{\"word\": \"大\", \"start\": 1810.763, \"end\": 1810.903, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"家\", \"start\": 1810.903, \"end\": 1811.083, \"score\": 0.992}, {\"word\": \"共\", \"start\": 1811.083, \"end\": 1811.163, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"同\", \"start\": 1811.163, \"end\": 1811.283, \"score\": 0.833}, {\"word\": \"努\", \"start\": 1811.283, \"end\": 1811.403, \"score\": 0.925}, {\"word\": \"力\", \"start\": 1811.403, \"end\": 1811.423, \"score\": 0.717}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:14,271 --> 00:00:42,477\n主席有請卓院長請卓院長備詢卓院長您好這個從4月2號面對美國川普總統的對等關稅政策跟挑戰我想全世界的國家都承受了很大的壓力雖然在4月9號\n\n2\n00:00:43,971 --> 00:01:13,284\n他又宣布延後90天但是90天以後我們面對的挑戰目前是做預印呢還是分工呢還是未來看到有關全球貿易的到底是分裂呢還是美國所謂的競合我想我們國內的所有部會首長都在這邊窮盡功夫大家希望能夠以維護國家利益的前提下找到一個比較好的解套方案是\n\n3\n00:01:13,604 --> 00:01:36,722\n那么我目前先把这个议题搁置我先从恶务战争因为川普总统他说到从他上任以来是很快就会把恶务战争解决但是最近他面临到的挑战使他有一种想法甚至说他可以脱手不管了那因此这个产生的问题给了我们一个教训\n\n4\n00:01:37,603 --> 00:01:55,063\n我们可以看到乌克兰是一个领土广大的国家台湾是一个海洋海岛国家一个是靠路上交通线那么台湾是海上交通线情况状况都不一样这个俄乌战争打到今天已经1152天了\n\n5\n00:01:58,632 --> 00:02:14,233\n实际上在战争开始的头六个月,乌克兰的难民跑到欧洲国家已经超过1100万人,三年的战争下来虽然有几百万回去,目前还有600万人。\n\n6\n00:02:15,174 --> 00:02:40,643\n在散播在欧洲各地那这种情况啊对台湾面对未来的两岸如果有一个冲突的挑战我们除了要照顾国人的安全另外一个就是我们在台湾的有很多的外籍的居民不只是从事事业投资教学也有我们很多友好邦交的这个laborforce啊\n\n7\n00:02:41,303 --> 00:03:09,136\n那這個加起來我想外交部也了解將近90萬人那這種情況下要掌握一個預應時間讓友好國家跟我們有很好的溝通管道在兩岸情勢升級緊張到某種程度的情況下我們跟這些友好的國家要分擔責任我們要照顧我們的國民也要照顧其他國家在台灣工作的同仁那這邊你可以看到\n\n8\n00:03:10,489 --> 00:03:39,784\n乌克兰跟台湾的面积比例是16.7比1那人口比例是1.94300万4300万对2300万但是密度比是1比8.7就说台湾人口密度非常高如果起冲突了我们除了希望能够产生嚇阻避免战争但是如果发生了就说中共犯台的情况下我们要保护我们的国土\n\n9\n00:03:41,324 --> 00:04:06,523\n這個城鎮戰跟烏克蘭的狀況是不一樣的那另外一個值得我們關注的就是人均耗電比我們面積這麼小可是我們的耗電是烏克蘭的3.4倍那這個情況下讓我們知道就是說這個電力的供應跟電力的傳輸是我們的關鍵技術設施的第一優先的考量\n\n10\n00:04:08,976 --> 00:04:33,532\n所以我们需要有一个所谓的共同图像这个图像是可以跨部会使用当我们谈乌克兰的时候我们了解台湾的大小也可以看到乌冬的战场目前这个面积已经可以含括两个台湾了所以它这个范例并不是适合拿台湾来比较说今天的乌克兰就是明日的台湾因为这个案例不同\n\n11\n00:04:34,272 --> 00:04:53,285\n那烏東的戰場因為有美國的星鏈的技術所以它前線的士兵戰士跟家人通訊手機可以通在烏東的地區它都是靠星鏈提供通訊那麼因為我們在台灣的岸上的固定站台或者是Wi-Fi\n\n12\n00:04:53,945 --> 00:05:13,144\n如果暂时冲突中断的话虽然我们跟湾外博弈星公司签约但是通讯频道的数量以及频宽还是有限的这个部分我们希望将来这个地方持续努力也要加强我们的韧性所以乌克兰的战场虽然看到了许多的无人机运用\n\n13\n00:05:14,305 --> 00:05:24,169\n幾千架上萬架的使用這種消耗型的無人機是因為有starlink提供鏈路才可以使用但這個case在台灣並不會\n\n14\n00:05:26,567 --> 00:05:55,232\n具有這種同樣的功能因此我們政府未來如果跟Starlink要做溝通因為馬斯克是說他要百分之百掌握權那我們政府當初是希望五十五十我想在這個溝通過程中間如果川普政府還是支持區域安全重視亞太和平我覺得這是一個溝通的管道那麼除了現有的英國的OneWeb以外我們還要強化其他的鏈路那這個就是我們的社會韌性\n\n15\n00:05:56,252 --> 00:06:13,990\n那至於在加薩走廊的站場給我們一個慘痛的教訓也就是說當你失去電力供應失去了醫藥失去了食水失去了糧食這種情況下就是社會結構的脆弱性就抽出來了這張圖表顯示是從2022年的2月24號\n\n16\n00:06:20,114 --> 00:06:42,646\n俄国开始侵略乌克兰或进犯乌克兰在两个月之内俄国乌克兰美国欧盟甚至联合国他的重大措施政策事势都显示在这里面但是我们发现在其中啊就是在头两个月中间有三次可以\n\n17\n00:06:43,885 --> 00:06:59,637\n就是說停火協議但是都沒有達成目標當然每個國家他的政治目標跟他的軍事手段有不同的搭配方法可是如果以當時的現象來看今天如果達成停火協議當時是\n\n18\n00:07:03,936 --> 00:07:25,915\n俄罗斯希望顿内斯克卢干斯克两个自治州变成独立国但是今天变成四个州被占领了加上克里米亚就五个地区如果当时能够具有魄力就讲不加入北约加入欧盟大家支持那乌冬的战场如果做一个很客观的严肃讨论\n\n19\n00:07:26,876 --> 00:07:34,502\n這三年的仗除了一個世代的年輕人的教育人口社會設施全部毀掉以外\n\n20\n00:07:36,385 --> 00:08:03,285\n戰爭的兩方沒有一個是贏家所以我們希望能夠掌握這種狀況看到關鍵的節點的時候要提供重要的分析因素因此這個方法論實際上是結合了這個所謂人工智慧的資料庫所以我們每一個戰場的情境我們都可以回溯將來檢討在哪個關鍵節點當時我們錯失了機會但是別人付出的教訓我們不要付第二次的學費\n\n21\n00:08:05,250 --> 00:08:32,663\n那這個是當時4月21號4月24號的一個模擬情境的戰場情形你可以看到在這個上面的這個動態顯示實際上從4月份以後整個戰場就沒有擴大縮小除了去年9月的這個烏東他打了一塊小地方克爾斯克但現在俄國又幾乎拿回去了所以現在的談判\n\n22\n00:08:33,916 --> 00:08:54,508\n可能要回到当年2015年2月15号这个明斯克二号条款可是呢因为双方在这13条里面都有背负了没有恪守这个条款的职责当然最后是俄罗斯撕毁条款那回过头来我们来想\n\n23\n00:08:55,558 --> 00:09:13,420\n当年这个二战胜利我们光复台湾是因为马关条约在1895年的4月17号当时签订马关条约并不是单独割让台澎还包括辽东半岛但是因为呢当年俄国\n\n24\n00:09:14,332 --> 00:09:23,180\n德國這個法國他們因為要享有原來的租界地所以他們不讓步因此蜻蜓又增加了3000萬兩白銀給這個日本\n\n25\n00:09:26,727 --> 00:09:48,396\n至于其他的条款我就不提因此今天如果是俄罗斯跟乌克兰要谈到重新的停战协定以及签和平条约的话他要回到明斯克二号条款一共十三条我建议外交部的同仁在这个明斯克条款里面去了解一下他的细节\n\n26\n00:09:49,315 --> 00:10:11,665\n因為所有東西你是回到上一次不管這條約接受或是撕毀可是它的precondition條件論就是你現在要回復談判的一個要求所以這個就是民視客的13條我想這個做一個參考\n\n27\n00:10:13,971 --> 00:10:26,748\n那因為川普總統就任以來他在第一任這一年的任期內一定會向國會提出他的國家安全戰略報告那麼有國家安全戰略下面美國的國防部有國防\n\n28\n00:10:29,209 --> 00:10:43,369\n在国防战略下他有他的军事战略那么还有他的印太战略还有他各种情报战略因此他是四个面向比方讲他的军事实力要被变他的外交立场要做预防\n\n29\n00:10:44,130 --> 00:11:05,213\n他对市场经济南海要追求最重要的一条是美国现在专注法规专利他们很会修法保护所以这四个批实际上是国家安全战略里面一个共同的支撑那么因为我们现在希望我们的执政跟政府在这个任期内提出我们的一个国家安全战略\n\n30\n00:11:05,874 --> 00:11:26,259\n那用這個戰略的架構讓我們的各個部會除了在政策上面從上到下有明確的政策指導在水平的協調上跨部會因為對應每一個不同的情境各部會他的分工跟承擔的責任並非按比例那這個點我提醒大家注意\n\n31\n00:11:28,683 --> 00:11:53,414\n那前两天美国国会的特别助理团就是国会的对中共的这个小组团也访问也到这个我们立法院来访问那他们也关切到这个问题所以说你看这边不管是美国的国务院美国的这个国防部美国的CIA还有国会都有一个对中共政策研究小组可是他们的资讯是分享的所以你可以看这个\n\n32\n00:11:56,601 --> 00:12:23,969\n川普就任以后他会定定他的核心目标国家利益实力元素战略要素兵力规模甚至在区域性他的解决方案他承担多少责任要付多少钱这个钱有可能是要现在的友好国家共同分担的所以他的这个战略指导从上到下明确他的实力从下到上要做支撑那这个给我们一个参考的一个构想\n\n33\n00:12:28,025 --> 00:12:51,178\n比照美国作为我们的一个学习的经验,国家安全战略,国防战略,军事战略,以及各地区的作战的战略,它是有重叠性的,也就是说有明确的指导。因为目前我们政府并没有官方版的国家安全战略,虽然我们公布了一个四年期国防总检讨,但是美国在2017年就把它取消掉了。\n\n34\n00:12:52,096 --> 00:13:07,518\n那因為就是因為從上到下跟下到上的支撐不能同調所以他就改成兩年一版的國防戰略因此我們在國防法內將來可以提出這個跨黨協商來修改這個國防法的要求因為我們只有QDR\n\n35\n00:13:08,118 --> 00:13:28,554\n虽然是四年期总检讨但是是前瞻我们并没有回顾我这个四年跟过去四年就上一个版本中间有哪些落差或是哪些还力有所未带的那我们要努力来做那么接着我们政府在今年又要出版国防战略那这个\n\n36\n00:13:29,383 --> 00:13:50,276\nQD从上一个版本的48页进步到现在的63页内容增加了一些那么原来国防战略跟军事战略是一页半现在成长到四页我们也肯定但是跟邻近国家比内容还不足我们希望在国防报告书白皮书出来以后能够看得到有所精进\n\n37\n00:13:51,004 --> 00:14:06,284\n那麼因為國家安全的各個領域,包括社會堅韌、太和和平、民心安定、經濟繁榮、軍事堅強,這裡面不同的面向,因為有不同的直接督導的長官,\n\n38\n00:14:08,496 --> 00:14:35,463\n有总统的有院长的有外交国防的有陆委的有海委的有国安会的那现在总统成立了三个特别委员会我们是肯定这三个课点委员会虽然的跨部会的协商还有民间有一些专业人士参与可是专业人士参与他提出的建言或建议要反映到不会去变成就说他并不是以\n\n39\n00:14:36,457 --> 00:14:54,682\n成比例的這個分工單則而是這些要做的事要並到下一年的國防預算裡面他才能夠付錢雖然現在誠意很高但是現在呢目前只是做出建言那我們用這個來顯示一個為什麼需要一個結構性的支撐\n\n40\n00:14:57,918 --> 00:15:22,447\n现在我们都在讲人工智慧的基础国内已经广泛在运用政府机构在用但是显然这个运用的方法还不能够短期达标就是有关于我们的所谓的关键基础设施跟全社会任性它这个互动关系并不是只是排列它的顺序哪一个优先哪个第二因此我们在这边你可以看出来\n\n41\n00:15:26,004 --> 00:15:50,783\n他利用人工智慧根据我们的关键因素排出了不同的互动关系那这个互动关系呢是根据当前我们根据国际情势国内社会的韧性如何强化要投资什么时间可以达成所以它是一个互动的关联性这边看得到啊最关键性的东西啊就是电网\n\n42\n00:15:51,940 --> 00:16:05,257\n電力分配網路設施資安能源的進口那社會結構還有呢醫療體系另外就是金融體系我們千萬不能因為\n\n43\n00:16:06,837 --> 00:16:30,359\n因為遭到斷電或是海纜斷電外匯存底不能運用金融這個會受極大的影響因此在這個結構圖上我們可以提供這個院內同仁做個參考這個是他不只是看到表象的第一層他甚至向下還可以延伸到第三層那這種情況下可以加快我們的韌性結構的強度的這個推展\n\n44\n00:16:34,844 --> 00:17:00,428\n这张图是从川普总统第45任到拜登总统46任到现在他回来第47任美国作为一个强权影响整个市局它可以运用的所谓的地缘战略地缘政治地缘经济它的组合运用它这里面在这个虚线圈圈里面涵盖了20个选项\n\n45\n00:17:02,142 --> 00:17:27,544\n那至于他把你排出15个肮脏国这个他认为贸易不均等那是他的方法那至于他的手段呢这里面就产生了一个施压作为的不定性一个反复无常那对美国来讲他看到利可是必能可能是周遭国家承担因此我们要有我们的方法论去面对这个而不是说等他出招我们做反应虽然我们现在\n\n46\n00:17:27,984 --> 00:17:43,949\n在您這邊召集的會議下880億後面會有很多深入的看法但是只是對於關稅但是對於外匯存底美債啦匯率啦黃金儲存啦這個我們內部啊當然跨部會要有一個更深入的這個協商那這個這是一個方法論啊就是我們來解看啊川普總統他的目的是美國利益優先\n\n47\n00:17:58,154 --> 00:18:27,225\n美国再次伟大那他的方法是什么呢他采用了新霸权主义新重商手艺新孤立主义以及新工业主义目的方法他还有的手段他的手段非常厉害双重标准两手策略左右换力内外折中因此对于这个外面四个轴向我们再去看我们对事情判断通常有八个不同的面向就是主观的\n\n48\n00:18:28,513 --> 00:18:54,272\n客观的宏观的为干的乐观的悲观的前瞻的反思的对这个不同的面向组合再去参考中国大陆的聚焦跟美国的聚焦我们在中间选择什么样的选项这里面啊没有最佳方案只是一个除错方案提供你选项中间哪些不理想的你可以把它太除那虽然这个\n\n49\n00:18:55,083 --> 00:19:22,029\n这很多是结合了西方的兵学思想跟我们的孙子兵法这个概念上八种组合八种不同的面向就64个种甚至再有交错组合我们甚至可以产生512个选项但不是选项来支持你哪个好而是在选项过程中把不确定因素对我们不利的先太除就说犯错的机会比较少那这个方法论是未来我想提供我们的智库\n\n50\n00:19:22,629 --> 00:19:40,103\n或者是学员单位做成一个政策建言提供我们政府做一个参考那这个呢就是这一次美中竞合外交部用的字是竞合是讲美国有竞争跟合作\n\n51\n00:19:41,469 --> 00:19:59,252\n這competitioncorporation叫做competition但是也可能是美中鍛煉脫鉤結構那這種情況下他選了這五個國家比方講包括這個英國澳洲印度日本韓國這五個國家如何在中間博弈他的這個\n\n52\n00:20:00,529 --> 00:20:23,114\n理論啊那這是一種方法論我覺得我們智庫可以做那同樣這五個國家他們自己彼此之間私下怎麼協商因為他們有的還是參與一帶一路所以中國大陸也在帶風向所以這個情況下我們對自己的角色定位以及調節的空間有多少我覺得要有一點方法論而不是用單面的論述那這個\n\n53\n00:20:27,723 --> 00:20:43,441\n我也是提供贵院以及我们政府部门希望参考我们需要一个国家安全战略那么里面产生国内环境的影响还有国际环境的冲突左右各列了12项\n\n54\n00:20:44,707 --> 00:21:11,103\n那他的目的呢是最后能够做风险评估对于聚焦在两岸情势外交政策国防政策经济政策能源政策治安政策人口政策社会的韧性做一个客观的分析最后产生的国家安全战略是什么呢是促进繁荣社会和谐维护主权保护民主和平避战强化安全这个是我们国家安全战略的目标那根据这个\n\n55\n00:21:13,571 --> 00:21:33,329\n賴總統的17條我們發現這17條裡面它也不是同樣的百分比例聚焦在哪一點上那我們看到這點當然我們還有未來努力精進的空間就是一直強調國家安全戰略不只是從上到下垂直的政策指導\n\n56\n00:21:34,330 --> 00:21:56,807\n還有一個就是水平的跨部會的協商承擔不同的任務責任但是並不是相同的百分比那這個有一個戰略的框架指導會對我們未來施政上有更好的幫助那這個最後一張圖啊我們可以看到這個美國開啟了全球貿易制裁與中共這個\n\n57\n00:21:58,496 --> 00:22:14,493\n嘴巴上乐意是讲进河了那会不会锻炼脱钩目前还看不出来我觉得永远他保留一个手法就是说他有一个妥协折中他的底线但他不会明讲那我们的外交经贸战略的因应呢我们用\n\n58\n00:22:15,554 --> 00:22:33,306\n這個例子就是台積電這次我們看出來了它完全反映出把地緣經濟地緣政治地緣戰略串結成一個整體那在這個裡面的供應鏈裡面是相互供應鏈如果在這個時候把台積電的功能去掉\n\n59\n00:22:34,212 --> 00:22:57,823\n那人人都是输家所以我相信我们坚持台积电在国内的持续发展在国外投资但是因为互为供应链就是相互依托谁都不能少谁所以看得到这个地缘经济他考虑的人口位置贸易源头产业链路地缘战略军事布局威泽赫祖维护利益\n\n60\n00:22:59,017 --> 00:23:10,730\n地缘政治这个讲白了就是我们讲了就是说国家的利益优先合众连横第二个我们看到这些大国强权他一定是双标双轨\n\n61\n00:23:13,451 --> 00:23:32,126\n这个没有说是从头到尾一贯一致的因此在这种情况下我们需要有一个国家安全战略我们的战略目标是牵动邻国的利益营造区域的平衡巩固贸易源头强化产业的链路多元确保多元生存的缝隙\n\n62\n00:23:32,927 --> 00:23:41,669\n那这样子有利于我们的外交部局精进军事能量运用以小牵大虚实联动正齐相生的合纵连横\n\n63\n00:23:42,557 --> 00:24:08,897\n那最后一个我们常常讲我们跟很多友好国家是同路人但是我是查了一些别的资料同路未必同道同道不同德同德不同心同心不同人同人不同调好朋友里面的分寸捏拿中间也不见得是完全是coherent同调的我想今天的问证以上的题目请院长做一个参考\n\n64\n00:24:09,857 --> 00:24:32,404\n我們站在質詢的過程中間也是代表人民監督在同樣另一個角色上其實是互動學習我看到台沙過去我們很多的工作同仁只是因為今天角色換過來了我站在這邊也可以想到當年我站在對面的時候也被質詢過所以我們講這是互動學習我特別請院長給我們一些指教\n\n65\n00:24:33,649 --> 00:24:57,743\n非常感謝委員每次聆聽委員的高見我真的是獲益良多更深深感受委員在準備這麼豐富、詳盡而且是非常難得的資料當中的用心尤其你剛剛對17項總統在國安高層會議的對照裡面關於人口對策、人工智慧、醫療、交通、金融體系沒有在17項當中\n\n66\n00:24:59,924 --> 00:25:26,258\n也許之前之後都會在其他來彌補我想這個就是國家整個一體那過這段時間我們也做了多項的城市韌性以及全社會韌性的相關演習我們從演習跟演練當中期待能夠再發現一些不足之處可以做更有效率的來補充那麼尤其是委員一直強調國家安全策戰略\n\n67\n00:25:26,958 --> 00:25:51,409\n國家的確需要一個安全的戰略那這個安全戰略委員當然是非常的專業那你我應該共同認知到這個安全戰略是在憲法架構下以總統統帥權為主衍生到各部會我們從資訊的收集到最後面的執行面都是在憲法的架構總統的統帥權這樣完整底下去做的安全架構\n\n68\n00:25:52,629 --> 00:26:16,677\n這個倒是非常感謝委員能夠這樣來提醒那麼我一再也強調說我們在跟美國在這一次的關稅爭議的談判當中我們一直以國內的產業支持為優先出發再來就是我們從過去到現在備妥了方案希望能夠緊迫的最佳時間跟美方進行談判談判的過程\n\n69\n00:26:17,884 --> 00:26:34,579\n在以爭取國家最大最大的利益維護產業國際競爭力讓國人能夠安心三項原則來進行那跟委員報告這個工作到目前進行我們仍然是在最優先行列的國家當中我們已經在4月11號\n\n70\n00:26:35,580 --> 00:27:00,976\n有第一次的視訊會議現在雙方就視訊會議的內容再做更多的詳實精進希望期待最近的時間內很快的有一個更好的這個共通來處理雙方經貿產生的問題然而在這個國際經貿局勢大變的時候台灣應該有累積到國家的能量跟各國尤其包括跟美國我們採取更公平穩定的貿易關係這絕對有利於我們未來在\n\n71\n00:27:04,571 --> 00:27:31,105\n科技產業供應鏈上領先地位的繼續的發揮所以以上這幾項都是總統在歷次會議當中明確的指示行政院也現在將17項的因應措施後續的一些立法修法工程計畫還有設施計畫的一個整體結構都已經在著手進行適當的時機我們就會拿出來討論我也始終認為台灣不能有戰後英雄\n\n72\n00:27:32,128 --> 00:27:38,663\n台灣要有一個能夠帶領台灣走向和平的一個國家領導人我想賴總統也是秉持這樣的\n\n73\n00:27:39,914 --> 00:28:04,027\n这样的自我的责任感所以他才提出说我们对国防安全我们国防预算能够在我们财政合一的许可之下以基于我们自己国防之所需对于设备的新购我们可以达到GDP3%这样的目标那么今年我们尝试要往这个目标来迈进当然这个是国家整体的财政结构的问题\n\n74\n00:28:04,608 --> 00:28:32,512\n所以在多項的委員提到的過程當中總統也在日前有一個講話那麼我再替他來做一些說明從過去的西進到南向到東拓其實現在我們講究的是北和希望能夠有同步的發生同步建立好的關係當然我們會有除錯的選擇但是我們認為全世界四載之內都可以成為兄弟所以我們現在立足台灣\n\n75\n00:28:34,196 --> 00:28:34,722\n布局全球\n\n76\n00:28:35,839 --> 00:29:04,585\n行銷全世界我們只是在中間加了一個加強美國這是為產業而做的希望產業不要因為關稅問題喪失了自己的國際競爭力或者就國內的市場也變成這個物價開始上漲起來所以加強美國到美國投資到美國採購這都是政府的政策在這同時我們除了希望雙邊能夠基於共同利益得到一個對關稅的合理協議之外未來我們也會顧慮到是否有\n\n77\n00:29:05,365 --> 00:29:09,174\n中國的貨品低價反傾向台灣造成我們國內各項的問題以及\n\n78\n00:29:12,050 --> 00:29:36,797\n經過台灣違規轉運到美國到世界各地去讓我們在國際貿易的信任度上被打折這個也是目前我們在做的我相信這個在您提出的包括經濟軍事外交三方面要來就國家安全的考量這個方向跟現在政府的走向是一樣的容許未來有更多的機會向委員再來一一的請教在這幾個當中關於我們的\n\n79\n00:29:37,222 --> 00:29:47,357\n全體性的全國性的甚至全球性的戰略思考跟戰略的構成我們希望跟委員我再能夠有機會再向委員來請教\n\n80\n00:29:48,779 --> 00:30:11,423\n最後我再跟您提出一個建議就是當國防預算在增加的過程中不只是向美方採購重要的軍事裝備或者是國內培養我們國防產業的基礎另外一個就是人才的培養我們軍事教育的經費要增加特別謝謝謝謝委員我們大家共同努力謝謝\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n14271\t42477\t主席有請卓院長請卓院長備詢卓院長您好這個從4月2號面對美國川普總統的對等關稅政策跟挑戰我想全世界的國家都承受了很大的壓力雖然在4月9號\n43971\t73284\t他又宣布延後90天但是90天以後我們面對的挑戰目前是做預印呢還是分工呢還是未來看到有關全球貿易的到底是分裂呢還是美國所謂的競合我想我們國內的所有部會首長都在這邊窮盡功夫大家希望能夠以維護國家利益的前提下找到一個比較好的解套方案是\n73604\t96722\t那么我目前先把这个议题搁置我先从恶务战争因为川普总统他说到从他上任以来是很快就会把恶务战争解决但是最近他面临到的挑战使他有一种想法甚至说他可以脱手不管了那因此这个产生的问题给了我们一个教训\n97603\t115063\t我们可以看到乌克兰是一个领土广大的国家台湾是一个海洋海岛国家一个是靠路上交通线那么台湾是海上交通线情况状况都不一样这个俄乌战争打到今天已经1152天了\n118632\t134233\t实际上在战争开始的头六个月,乌克兰的难民跑到欧洲国家已经超过1100万人,三年的战争下来虽然有几百万回去,目前还有600万人。\n135174\t160643\t在散播在欧洲各地那这种情况啊对台湾面对未来的两岸如果有一个冲突的挑战我们除了要照顾国人的安全另外一个就是我们在台湾的有很多的外籍的居民不只是从事事业投资教学也有我们很多友好邦交的这个labor force啊\n161303\t189136\t那這個加起來我想外交部也了解將近90萬人那這種情況下要掌握一個預應時間讓友好國家跟我們有很好的溝通管道在兩岸情勢升級緊張到某種程度的情況下我們跟這些友好的國家要分擔責任我們要照顧我們的國民也要照顧其他國家在台灣工作的同仁那這邊你可以看到\n190489\t219784\t乌克兰跟台湾的面积比例是16.7比1那人口比例是1.9 4300万4300万对2300万但是密度比是1比8.7就说台湾人口密度非常高如果起冲突了我们除了希望能够产生嚇阻避免战争但是如果发生了就说中共犯台的情况下我们要保护我们的国土\n221324\t246523\t這個城鎮戰跟烏克蘭的狀況是不一樣的那另外一個值得我們關注的就是人均耗電比我們面積這麼小可是我們的耗電是烏克蘭的3.4倍那這個情況下讓我們知道就是說這個電力的供應跟電力的傳輸是我們的關鍵技術設施的第一優先的考量\n248976\t273532\t所以我们需要有一个所谓的共同图像这个图像是可以跨部会使用当我们谈乌克兰的时候我们了解台湾的大小也可以看到乌冬的战场目前这个面积已经可以含括两个台湾了所以它这个范例并不是适合拿台湾来比较说今天的乌克兰就是明日的台湾因为这个案例不同\n274272\t293285\t那烏東的戰場因為有美國的星鏈的技術所以它前線的士兵戰士跟家人通訊手機可以通在烏東的地區它都是靠星鏈提供通訊那麼因為我們在台灣的岸上的固定站台或者是Wi-Fi\n293945\t313144\t如果暂时冲突中断的话虽然我们跟湾外博弈星公司签约但是通讯频道的数量以及频宽还是有限的这个部分我们希望将来这个地方持续努力也要加强我们的韧性所以乌克兰的战场虽然看到了许多的无人机运用\n314305\t324169\t幾千架上萬架的使用這種消耗型的無人機是因為有starlink提供鏈路才可以使用但這個case在台灣並不會\n326567\t355232\t具有這種同樣的功能因此我們政府未來如果跟Starlink要做溝通因為馬斯克是說他要百分之百掌握權那我們政府當初是希望五十五十我想在這個溝通過程中間如果川普政府還是支持區域安全重視亞太和平我覺得這是一個溝通的管道那麼除了現有的英國的One Web以外我們還要強化其他的鏈路那這個就是我們的社會韌性\n356252\t373990\t那至於在加薩走廊的站場給我們一個慘痛的教訓也就是說當你失去電力供應失去了醫藥 失去了食水 失去了糧食這種情況下就是社會結構的脆弱性就抽出來了這張圖表顯示是從2022年的2月24號\n380114\t402646\t俄国开始侵略乌克兰或进犯乌克兰在两个月之内俄国乌克兰美国欧盟甚至联合国他的重大措施政策事势都显示在这里面但是我们发现在其中啊就是在头两个月中间有三次可以\n403885\t419637\t就是說停火協議但是都沒有達成目標當然每個國家他的政治目標跟他的軍事手段有不同的搭配方法可是如果以當時的現象來看今天如果達成停火協議當時是\n423936\t445915\t俄罗斯希望顿内斯克 卢干斯克两个自治州变成独立国但是今天变成四个州被占领了加上克里米亚就五个地区如果当时能够具有魄力就讲不加入北约加入欧盟大家支持那乌冬的战场如果做一个很客观的严肃讨论\n446876\t454502\t這三年的仗除了一個世代的年輕人的教育人口社會設施全部毀掉以外\n456385\t483285\t戰爭的兩方沒有一個是贏家所以我們希望能夠掌握這種狀況看到關鍵的節點的時候要提供重要的分析因素因此這個方法論實際上是結合了這個所謂人工智慧的資料庫所以我們每一個戰場的情境我們都可以回溯將來檢討在哪個關鍵節點當時我們錯失了機會但是別人付出的教訓我們不要付第二次的學費\n485250\t512663\t那這個是當時4月21號4月24號的一個模擬情境的戰場情形你可以看到在這個上面的這個動態顯示實際上從4月份以後整個戰場就沒有擴大縮小除了去年9月的這個烏東他打了一塊小地方克爾斯克但現在俄國又幾乎拿回去了所以現在的談判\n513916\t534508\t可能要回到当年2015年2月15号这个明斯克二号条款可是呢因为双方在这13条里面都有背负了没有恪守这个条款的职责当然最后是俄罗斯撕毁条款那回过头来我们来想\n535558\t553420\t当年这个二战胜利我们光复台湾是因为马关条约在1895年的4月17号当时签订马关条约并不是单独割让台澎还包括辽东半岛但是因为呢当年俄国\n554332\t563180\t德國這個法國他們因為要享有原來的租界地所以他們不讓步因此蜻蜓又增加了3000萬兩白銀給這個日本\n566727\t588396\t至于其他的条款我就不提因此今天如果是俄罗斯跟乌克兰要谈到重新的停战协定以及签和平条约的话他要回到明斯克二号条款一共十三条我建议外交部的同仁在这个明斯克条款里面去了解一下他的细节\n589315\t611665\t因為所有東西你是回到上一次不管這條約接受或是撕毀可是它的precondition條件論就是你現在要回復談判的一個要求所以這個就是民視客的13條我想這個做一個參考\n613971\t626748\t那因為川普總統就任以來他在第一任這一年的任期內一定會向國會提出他的國家安全戰略報告那麼有國家安全戰略下面美國的國防部有國防\n629209\t643369\t在国防战略下他有他的军事战略那么还有他的印太战略还有他各种情报战略因此他是四个面向比方讲他的军事实力要被变他的外交立场要做预防\n644130\t665213\t他对市场经济南海要追求最重要的一条是美国现在专注法规专利他们很会修法保护所以这四个批实际上是国家安全战略里面一个共同的支撑那么因为我们现在希望我们的执政跟政府在这个任期内提出我们的一个国家安全战略\n665874\t686259\t那用這個戰略的架構讓我們的各個部會除了在政策上面從上到下有明確的政策指導在水平的協調上跨部會因為對應每一個不同的情境各部會他的分工跟承擔的責任並非按比例那這個點我提醒大家注意\n688683\t713414\t那前两天美国国会的特别助理团就是国会的对中共的这个小组团也访问也到这个我们立法院来访问那他们也关切到这个问题所以说你看这边不管是美国的国务院美国的这个国防部美国的CIA还有国会都有一个对中共政策研究小组可是他们的资讯是分享的所以你可以看这个\n716601\t743969\t川普就任以后他会定定他的核心目标国家利益实力元素战略要素兵力规模甚至在区域性他的解决方案他承担多少责任要付多少钱这个钱有可能是要现在的友好国家共同分担的所以他的这个战略指导从上到下明确他的实力从下到上要做支撑那这个给我们一个参考的一个构想\n748025\t771178\t比照美国作为我们的一个学习的经验,国家安全战略,国防战略,军事战略,以及各地区的作战的战略,它是有重叠性的,也就是说有明确的指导。因为目前我们政府并没有官方版的国家安全战略,虽然我们公布了一个四年期国防总检讨,但是美国在2017年就把它取消掉了。\n772096\t787518\t那因為就是因為從上到下跟下到上的支撐不能同調所以他就改成兩年一版的國防戰略因此我們在國防法內將來可以提出這個跨黨協商來修改這個國防法的要求因為我們只有QDR\n788118\t808554\t虽然是四年期总检讨但是是前瞻我们并没有回顾我这个四年跟过去四年就上一个版本中间有哪些落差或是哪些还力有所未带的那我们要努力来做那么接着我们政府在今年又要出版国防战略那这个\n809383\t830276\tQD从上一个版本的48页进步到现在的63页内容增加了一些那么原来国防战略跟军事战略是一页半现在成长到四页我们也肯定但是跟邻近国家比内容还不足我们希望在国防报告书白皮书出来以后能够看得到有所精进\n831004\t846284\t那麼因為國家安全的各個領域,包括社會堅韌、太和和平、民心安定、經濟繁榮、軍事堅強,這裡面不同的面向,因為有不同的直接督導的長官,\n848496\t875463\t有总统的有院长的有外交国防的有陆委的有海委的有国安会的那现在总统成立了三个特别委员会我们是肯定这三个课点委员会虽然的跨部会的协商还有民间有一些专业人士参与可是专业人士参与他提出的建言或建议要反映到不会去变成就说他并不是以\n876457\t894682\t成比例的這個分工單則而是這些要做的事要並到下一年的國防預算裡面他才能夠付錢雖然現在誠意很高但是現在呢目前只是做出建言那我們用這個來顯示一個為什麼需要一個結構性的支撐\n897918\t922447\t现在我们都在讲人工智慧的基础国内已经广泛在运用政府机构在用但是显然这个运用的方法还不能够短期达标就是有关于我们的所谓的关键基础设施跟全社会任性它这个互动关系并不是只是排列它的顺序哪一个优先哪个第二因此我们在这边你可以看出来\n926004\t950783\t他利用人工智慧根据我们的关键因素排出了不同的互动关系那这个互动关系呢是根据当前我们根据国际情势国内社会的韧性如何强化要投资什么时间可以达成所以它是一个互动的关联性这边看得到啊最关键性的东西啊就是电网\n951940\t965257\t電力分配網路設施資安能源的進口那社會結構還有呢醫療體系另外就是金融體系我們千萬不能因為\n966837\t990359\t因為遭到斷電或是海纜斷電外匯存底不能運用金融這個會受極大的影響因此在這個結構圖上我們可以提供這個院內同仁做個參考這個是他不只是看到表象的第一層他甚至向下還可以延伸到第三層那這種情況下可以加快我們的韌性結構的強度的這個推展\n994844\t1020428\t这张图是从川普总统第45任到拜登总统46任到现在他回来第47任美国作为一个强权影响整个市局它可以运用的所谓的地缘战略地缘政治地缘经济它的组合运用它这里面在这个虚线圈圈里面涵盖了20个选项\n1022142\t1047544\t那至于他把你排出15个肮脏国这个他认为贸易不均等那是他的方法那至于他的手段呢这里面就产生了一个施压作为的不定性一个反复无常那对美国来讲他看到利可是必能可能是周遭国家承担因此我们要有我们的方法论去面对这个而不是说等他出招我们做反应虽然我们现在\n1047984\t1063949\t在您這邊召集的會議下880億後面會有很多深入的看法但是只是對於關稅但是對於外匯存底美債啦匯率啦黃金儲存啦這個我們內部啊當然跨部會要有一個更深入的這個協商那這個這是一個方法論啊就是我們來解看啊川普總統他的目的是美國利益優先\n1078154\t1107225\t美国再次伟大那他的方法是什么呢他采用了新霸权主义新重商手艺新孤立主义以及新工业主义目的方法他还有的手段他的手段非常厉害双重标准两手策略左右换力内外折中因此对于这个外面四个轴向我们再去看我们对事情判断通常有八个不同的面向就是主观的\n1108513\t1134272\t客观的宏观的为干的乐观的悲观的前瞻的反思的对这个不同的面向组合再去参考中国大陆的聚焦跟美国的聚焦我们在中间选择什么样的选项这里面啊没有最佳方案只是一个除错方案提供你选项中间哪些不理想的你可以把它太除那虽然这个\n1135083\t1162029\t这很多是结合了西方的兵学思想跟我们的孙子兵法这个概念上八种组合八种不同的面向就64个种甚至再有交错组合我们甚至可以产生512个选项但不是选项来支持你哪个好而是在选项过程中把不确定因素对我们不利的先太除就说犯错的机会比较少那这个方法论是未来我想提供我们的智库\n1162629\t1180103\t或者是学员单位做成一个政策建言提供我们政府做一个参考那这个呢就是这一次美中竞合外交部用的字是竞合是讲美国有竞争跟合作\n1181469\t1199252\t這competition corporation叫做competition但是也可能是美中鍛煉脫鉤結構那這種情況下他選了這五個國家比方講包括這個英國澳洲印度日本韓國這五個國家如何在中間博弈他的這個\n1200529\t1223114\t理論啊那這是一種方法論我覺得我們智庫可以做那同樣這五個國家他們自己彼此之間私下怎麼協商因為他們有的還是參與一帶一路所以中國大陸也在帶風向所以這個情況下我們對自己的角色定位以及調節的空間有多少我覺得要有一點方法論而不是用單面的論述那這個\n1227723\t1243441\t我也是提供贵院以及我们政府部门希望参考我们需要一个国家安全战略那么里面产生国内环境的影响还有国际环境的冲突左右各列了12项\n1244707\t1271103\t那他的目的呢是最后能够做风险评估对于聚焦在两岸情势外交政策国防政策经济政策能源政策治安政策人口政策社会的韧性做一个客观的分析最后产生的国家安全战略是什么呢是促进繁荣社会和谐维护主权保护民主和平避战强化安全这个是我们国家安全战略的目标那根据这个\n1273571\t1293329\t賴總統的17條我們發現這17條裡面它也不是同樣的百分比例聚焦在哪一點上那我們看到這點當然我們還有未來努力精進的空間就是一直強調國家安全戰略不只是從上到下垂直的政策指導\n1294330\t1316807\t還有一個就是水平的跨部會的協商承擔不同的任務責任但是並不是相同的百分比那這個有一個戰略的框架指導會對我們未來施政上有更好的幫助那這個最後一張圖啊我們可以看到這個美國開啟了全球貿易制裁與中共這個\n1318496\t1334493\t嘴巴上乐意是讲进河了那会不会锻炼脱钩目前还看不出来我觉得永远他保留一个手法就是说他有一个妥协折中他的底线但他不会明讲那我们的外交经贸战略的因应呢我们用\n1335554\t1353306\t這個例子就是台積電這次我們看出來了它完全反映出把地緣經濟地緣政治地緣戰略串結成一個整體那在這個裡面的供應鏈裡面是相互供應鏈如果在這個時候把台積電的功能去掉\n1354212\t1377823\t那人人都是输家所以我相信我们坚持台积电在国内的持续发展在国外投资但是因为互为供应链就是相互依托谁都不能少谁所以看得到这个地缘经济他考虑的人口位置贸易源头产业链路地缘战略军事布局威泽赫祖维护利益\n1379017\t1390730\t地缘政治这个讲白了就是我们讲了就是说国家的利益优先合众连横第二个我们看到这些大国强权他一定是双标双轨\n1393451\t1412126\t这个没有说是从头到尾一贯一致的因此在这种情况下我们需要有一个国家安全战略我们的战略目标是牵动邻国的利益营造区域的平衡巩固贸易源头强化产业的链路多元确保多元生存的缝隙\n1412927\t1421669\t那这样子有利于我们的外交部局精进军事能量运用以小牵大虚实联动正齐相生的合纵连横\n1422557\t1448897\t那最后一个我们常常讲我们跟很多友好国家是同路人但是我是查了一些别的资料同路未必同道同道不同德同德不同心同心不同人同人不同调好朋友里面的分寸捏拿中间也不见得是完全是coherent同调的我想今天的问证以上的题目请院长做一个参考\n1449857\t1472404\t我們站在質詢的過程中間也是代表人民監督在同樣另一個角色上其實是互動學習我看到台沙過去我們很多的工作同仁只是因為今天角色換過來了我站在這邊也可以想到當年我站在對面的時候也被質詢過所以我們講這是互動學習我特別請院長給我們一些指教\n1473649\t1497743\t非常感謝委員每次聆聽委員的高見我真的是獲益良多更深深感受委員在準備這麼豐富、詳盡而且是非常難得的資料當中的用心尤其你剛剛對17項總統在國安高層會議的對照裡面關於人口對策、人工智慧、醫療、交通、金融體系沒有在17項當中\n1499924\t1526258\t也許之前之後都會在其他來彌補我想這個就是國家整個一體那過這段時間我們也做了多項的城市韌性以及全社會韌性的相關演習我們從演習跟演練當中期待能夠再發現一些不足之處可以做更有效率的來補充那麼尤其是委員一直強調國家安全策戰略\n1526958\t1551409\t國家的確需要一個安全的戰略那這個安全戰略委員當然是非常的專業那你我應該共同認知到這個安全戰略是在憲法架構下以總統統帥權為主衍生到各部會我們從資訊的收集到最後面的執行面都是在憲法的架構總統的統帥權這樣完整底下去做的安全架構\n1552629\t1576677\t這個倒是非常感謝委員能夠這樣來提醒那麼我一再也強調說我們在跟美國在這一次的關稅爭議的談判當中我們一直以國內的產業支持為優先出發再來就是我們從過去到現在備妥了方案希望能夠緊迫的最佳時間跟美方進行談判談判的過程\n1577884\t1594579\t在以爭取國家最大最大的利益維護產業國際競爭力讓國人能夠安心三項原則來進行那跟委員報告這個工作到目前進行我們仍然是在最優先行列的國家當中我們已經在4月11號\n1595580\t1620976\t有第一次的視訊會議現在雙方就視訊會議的內容再做更多的詳實精進希望期待最近的時間內很快的有一個更好的這個共通來處理雙方經貿產生的問題然而在這個國際經貿局勢大變的時候台灣應該有累積到國家的能量跟各國尤其包括跟美國我們採取更公平穩定的貿易關係這絕對有利於我們未來在\n1624571\t1651105\t科技產業供應鏈上領先地位的繼續的發揮所以以上這幾項都是總統在歷次會議當中明確的指示行政院也現在將17項的因應措施後續的一些立法修法工程計畫還有設施計畫的一個整體結構都已經在著手進行適當的時機我們就會拿出來討論我也始終認為台灣不能有戰後英雄\n1652128\t1658663\t台灣要有一個能夠帶領台灣走向和平的一個國家領導人我想賴總統也是秉持這樣的\n1659914\t1684027\t这样的自我的责任感所以他才提出说我们对国防安全我们国防预算能够在我们财政合一的许可之下以基于我们自己国防之所需对于设备的新购我们可以达到GDP3%这样的目标那么今年我们尝试要往这个目标来迈进当然这个是国家整体的财政结构的问题\n1684608\t1712512\t所以在多項的委員提到的過程當中總統也在日前有一個講話那麼我再替他來做一些說明從過去的西進到南向到東拓其實現在我們講究的是北和希望能夠有同步的發生同步建立好的關係當然我們會有除錯的選擇但是我們認為全世界四載之內都可以成為兄弟所以我們現在立足台灣\n1714196\t1714722\t布局全球\n1715839\t1744585\t行銷全世界我們只是在中間加了一個加強美國這是為產業而做的希望產業不要因為關稅問題喪失了自己的國際競爭力或者就國內的市場也變成這個物價開始上漲起來所以加強美國到美國投資到美國採購這都是政府的政策在這同時我們除了希望雙邊能夠基於共同利益得到一個對關稅的合理協議之外未來我們也會顧慮到是否有\n1745365\t1749174\t中國的貨品低價反傾向台灣造成我們國內各項的問題以及\n1752050\t1776797\t經過台灣違規轉運到美國到世界各地去讓我們在國際貿易的信任度上被打折這個也是目前我們在做的我相信這個在您提出的包括經濟軍事外交三方面要來就國家安全的考量這個方向跟現在政府的走向是一樣的容許未來有更多的機會向委員再來一一的請教在這幾個當中關於我們的\n1777222\t1787357\t全體性的 全國性的 甚至全球性的戰略思考跟戰略的構成我們希望跟委員 我再能夠有機會再向委員來請教\n1788779\t1811423\t最後我再跟您提出一個建議就是當國防預算在增加的過程中不只是向美方採購重要的軍事裝備或者是國內培養我們國防產業的基礎另外一個就是人才的培養我們軍事教育的經費要增加特別謝謝謝謝委員我們大家共同努力謝謝\n","txt":"主席有請卓院長請卓院長備詢卓院長您好這個從4月2號面對美國川普總統的對等關稅政策跟挑戰我想全世界的國家都承受了很大的壓力雖然在4月9號\n他又宣布延後90天但是90天以後我們面對的挑戰目前是做預印呢還是分工呢還是未來看到有關全球貿易的到底是分裂呢還是美國所謂的競合我想我們國內的所有部會首長都在這邊窮盡功夫大家希望能夠以維護國家利益的前提下找到一個比較好的解套方案是\n那么我目前先把这个议题搁置我先从恶务战争因为川普总统他说到从他上任以来是很快就会把恶务战争解决但是最近他面临到的挑战使他有一种想法甚至说他可以脱手不管了那因此这个产生的问题给了我们一个教训\n我们可以看到乌克兰是一个领土广大的国家台湾是一个海洋海岛国家一个是靠路上交通线那么台湾是海上交通线情况状况都不一样这个俄乌战争打到今天已经1152天了\n实际上在战争开始的头六个月,乌克兰的难民跑到欧洲国家已经超过1100万人,三年的战争下来虽然有几百万回去,目前还有600万人。\n在散播在欧洲各地那这种情况啊对台湾面对未来的两岸如果有一个冲突的挑战我们除了要照顾国人的安全另外一个就是我们在台湾的有很多的外籍的居民不只是从事事业投资教学也有我们很多友好邦交的这个labor force啊\n那這個加起來我想外交部也了解將近90萬人那這種情況下要掌握一個預應時間讓友好國家跟我們有很好的溝通管道在兩岸情勢升級緊張到某種程度的情況下我們跟這些友好的國家要分擔責任我們要照顧我們的國民也要照顧其他國家在台灣工作的同仁那這邊你可以看到\n乌克兰跟台湾的面积比例是16.7比1那人口比例是1.9 4300万4300万对2300万但是密度比是1比8.7就说台湾人口密度非常高如果起冲突了我们除了希望能够产生嚇阻避免战争但是如果发生了就说中共犯台的情况下我们要保护我们的国土\n這個城鎮戰跟烏克蘭的狀況是不一樣的那另外一個值得我們關注的就是人均耗電比我們面積這麼小可是我們的耗電是烏克蘭的3.4倍那這個情況下讓我們知道就是說這個電力的供應跟電力的傳輸是我們的關鍵技術設施的第一優先的考量\n所以我们需要有一个所谓的共同图像这个图像是可以跨部会使用当我们谈乌克兰的时候我们了解台湾的大小也可以看到乌冬的战场目前这个面积已经可以含括两个台湾了所以它这个范例并不是适合拿台湾来比较说今天的乌克兰就是明日的台湾因为这个案例不同\n那烏東的戰場因為有美國的星鏈的技術所以它前線的士兵戰士跟家人通訊手機可以通在烏東的地區它都是靠星鏈提供通訊那麼因為我們在台灣的岸上的固定站台或者是Wi-Fi\n如果暂时冲突中断的话虽然我们跟湾外博弈星公司签约但是通讯频道的数量以及频宽还是有限的这个部分我们希望将来这个地方持续努力也要加强我们的韧性所以乌克兰的战场虽然看到了许多的无人机运用\n幾千架上萬架的使用這種消耗型的無人機是因為有starlink提供鏈路才可以使用但這個case在台灣並不會\n具有這種同樣的功能因此我們政府未來如果跟Starlink要做溝通因為馬斯克是說他要百分之百掌握權那我們政府當初是希望五十五十我想在這個溝通過程中間如果川普政府還是支持區域安全重視亞太和平我覺得這是一個溝通的管道那麼除了現有的英國的One Web以外我們還要強化其他的鏈路那這個就是我們的社會韌性\n那至於在加薩走廊的站場給我們一個慘痛的教訓也就是說當你失去電力供應失去了醫藥 失去了食水 失去了糧食這種情況下就是社會結構的脆弱性就抽出來了這張圖表顯示是從2022年的2月24號\n俄国开始侵略乌克兰或进犯乌克兰在两个月之内俄国乌克兰美国欧盟甚至联合国他的重大措施政策事势都显示在这里面但是我们发现在其中啊就是在头两个月中间有三次可以\n就是說停火協議但是都沒有達成目標當然每個國家他的政治目標跟他的軍事手段有不同的搭配方法可是如果以當時的現象來看今天如果達成停火協議當時是\n俄罗斯希望顿内斯克 卢干斯克两个自治州变成独立国但是今天变成四个州被占领了加上克里米亚就五个地区如果当时能够具有魄力就讲不加入北约加入欧盟大家支持那乌冬的战场如果做一个很客观的严肃讨论\n這三年的仗除了一個世代的年輕人的教育人口社會設施全部毀掉以外\n戰爭的兩方沒有一個是贏家所以我們希望能夠掌握這種狀況看到關鍵的節點的時候要提供重要的分析因素因此這個方法論實際上是結合了這個所謂人工智慧的資料庫所以我們每一個戰場的情境我們都可以回溯將來檢討在哪個關鍵節點當時我們錯失了機會但是別人付出的教訓我們不要付第二次的學費\n那這個是當時4月21號4月24號的一個模擬情境的戰場情形你可以看到在這個上面的這個動態顯示實際上從4月份以後整個戰場就沒有擴大縮小除了去年9月的這個烏東他打了一塊小地方克爾斯克但現在俄國又幾乎拿回去了所以現在的談判\n可能要回到当年2015年2月15号这个明斯克二号条款可是呢因为双方在这13条里面都有背负了没有恪守这个条款的职责当然最后是俄罗斯撕毁条款那回过头来我们来想\n当年这个二战胜利我们光复台湾是因为马关条约在1895年的4月17号当时签订马关条约并不是单独割让台澎还包括辽东半岛但是因为呢当年俄国\n德國這個法國他們因為要享有原來的租界地所以他們不讓步因此蜻蜓又增加了3000萬兩白銀給這個日本\n至于其他的条款我就不提因此今天如果是俄罗斯跟乌克兰要谈到重新的停战协定以及签和平条约的话他要回到明斯克二号条款一共十三条我建议外交部的同仁在这个明斯克条款里面去了解一下他的细节\n因為所有東西你是回到上一次不管這條約接受或是撕毀可是它的precondition條件論就是你現在要回復談判的一個要求所以這個就是民視客的13條我想這個做一個參考\n那因為川普總統就任以來他在第一任這一年的任期內一定會向國會提出他的國家安全戰略報告那麼有國家安全戰略下面美國的國防部有國防\n在国防战略下他有他的军事战略那么还有他的印太战略还有他各种情报战略因此他是四个面向比方讲他的军事实力要被变他的外交立场要做预防\n他对市场经济南海要追求最重要的一条是美国现在专注法规专利他们很会修法保护所以这四个批实际上是国家安全战略里面一个共同的支撑那么因为我们现在希望我们的执政跟政府在这个任期内提出我们的一个国家安全战略\n那用這個戰略的架構讓我們的各個部會除了在政策上面從上到下有明確的政策指導在水平的協調上跨部會因為對應每一個不同的情境各部會他的分工跟承擔的責任並非按比例那這個點我提醒大家注意\n那前两天美国国会的特别助理团就是国会的对中共的这个小组团也访问也到这个我们立法院来访问那他们也关切到这个问题所以说你看这边不管是美国的国务院美国的这个国防部美国的CIA还有国会都有一个对中共政策研究小组可是他们的资讯是分享的所以你可以看这个\n川普就任以后他会定定他的核心目标国家利益实力元素战略要素兵力规模甚至在区域性他的解决方案他承担多少责任要付多少钱这个钱有可能是要现在的友好国家共同分担的所以他的这个战略指导从上到下明确他的实力从下到上要做支撑那这个给我们一个参考的一个构想\n比照美国作为我们的一个学习的经验,国家安全战略,国防战略,军事战略,以及各地区的作战的战略,它是有重叠性的,也就是说有明确的指导。因为目前我们政府并没有官方版的国家安全战略,虽然我们公布了一个四年期国防总检讨,但是美国在2017年就把它取消掉了。\n那因為就是因為從上到下跟下到上的支撐不能同調所以他就改成兩年一版的國防戰略因此我們在國防法內將來可以提出這個跨黨協商來修改這個國防法的要求因為我們只有QDR\n虽然是四年期总检讨但是是前瞻我们并没有回顾我这个四年跟过去四年就上一个版本中间有哪些落差或是哪些还力有所未带的那我们要努力来做那么接着我们政府在今年又要出版国防战略那这个\nQD从上一个版本的48页进步到现在的63页内容增加了一些那么原来国防战略跟军事战略是一页半现在成长到四页我们也肯定但是跟邻近国家比内容还不足我们希望在国防报告书白皮书出来以后能够看得到有所精进\n那麼因為國家安全的各個領域,包括社會堅韌、太和和平、民心安定、經濟繁榮、軍事堅強,這裡面不同的面向,因為有不同的直接督導的長官,\n有总统的有院长的有外交国防的有陆委的有海委的有国安会的那现在总统成立了三个特别委员会我们是肯定这三个课点委员会虽然的跨部会的协商还有民间有一些专业人士参与可是专业人士参与他提出的建言或建议要反映到不会去变成就说他并不是以\n成比例的這個分工單則而是這些要做的事要並到下一年的國防預算裡面他才能夠付錢雖然現在誠意很高但是現在呢目前只是做出建言那我們用這個來顯示一個為什麼需要一個結構性的支撐\n现在我们都在讲人工智慧的基础国内已经广泛在运用政府机构在用但是显然这个运用的方法还不能够短期达标就是有关于我们的所谓的关键基础设施跟全社会任性它这个互动关系并不是只是排列它的顺序哪一个优先哪个第二因此我们在这边你可以看出来\n他利用人工智慧根据我们的关键因素排出了不同的互动关系那这个互动关系呢是根据当前我们根据国际情势国内社会的韧性如何强化要投资什么时间可以达成所以它是一个互动的关联性这边看得到啊最关键性的东西啊就是电网\n電力分配網路設施資安能源的進口那社會結構還有呢醫療體系另外就是金融體系我們千萬不能因為\n因為遭到斷電或是海纜斷電外匯存底不能運用金融這個會受極大的影響因此在這個結構圖上我們可以提供這個院內同仁做個參考這個是他不只是看到表象的第一層他甚至向下還可以延伸到第三層那這種情況下可以加快我們的韌性結構的強度的這個推展\n这张图是从川普总统第45任到拜登总统46任到现在他回来第47任美国作为一个强权影响整个市局它可以运用的所谓的地缘战略地缘政治地缘经济它的组合运用它这里面在这个虚线圈圈里面涵盖了20个选项\n那至于他把你排出15个肮脏国这个他认为贸易不均等那是他的方法那至于他的手段呢这里面就产生了一个施压作为的不定性一个反复无常那对美国来讲他看到利可是必能可能是周遭国家承担因此我们要有我们的方法论去面对这个而不是说等他出招我们做反应虽然我们现在\n在您這邊召集的會議下880億後面會有很多深入的看法但是只是對於關稅但是對於外匯存底美債啦匯率啦黃金儲存啦這個我們內部啊當然跨部會要有一個更深入的這個協商那這個這是一個方法論啊就是我們來解看啊川普總統他的目的是美國利益優先\n美国再次伟大那他的方法是什么呢他采用了新霸权主义新重商手艺新孤立主义以及新工业主义目的方法他还有的手段他的手段非常厉害双重标准两手策略左右换力内外折中因此对于这个外面四个轴向我们再去看我们对事情判断通常有八个不同的面向就是主观的\n客观的宏观的为干的乐观的悲观的前瞻的反思的对这个不同的面向组合再去参考中国大陆的聚焦跟美国的聚焦我们在中间选择什么样的选项这里面啊没有最佳方案只是一个除错方案提供你选项中间哪些不理想的你可以把它太除那虽然这个\n这很多是结合了西方的兵学思想跟我们的孙子兵法这个概念上八种组合八种不同的面向就64个种甚至再有交错组合我们甚至可以产生512个选项但不是选项来支持你哪个好而是在选项过程中把不确定因素对我们不利的先太除就说犯错的机会比较少那这个方法论是未来我想提供我们的智库\n或者是学员单位做成一个政策建言提供我们政府做一个参考那这个呢就是这一次美中竞合外交部用的字是竞合是讲美国有竞争跟合作\n這competition corporation叫做competition但是也可能是美中鍛煉脫鉤結構那這種情況下他選了這五個國家比方講包括這個英國澳洲印度日本韓國這五個國家如何在中間博弈他的這個\n理論啊那這是一種方法論我覺得我們智庫可以做那同樣這五個國家他們自己彼此之間私下怎麼協商因為他們有的還是參與一帶一路所以中國大陸也在帶風向所以這個情況下我們對自己的角色定位以及調節的空間有多少我覺得要有一點方法論而不是用單面的論述那這個\n我也是提供贵院以及我们政府部门希望参考我们需要一个国家安全战略那么里面产生国内环境的影响还有国际环境的冲突左右各列了12项\n那他的目的呢是最后能够做风险评估对于聚焦在两岸情势外交政策国防政策经济政策能源政策治安政策人口政策社会的韧性做一个客观的分析最后产生的国家安全战略是什么呢是促进繁荣社会和谐维护主权保护民主和平避战强化安全这个是我们国家安全战略的目标那根据这个\n賴總統的17條我們發現這17條裡面它也不是同樣的百分比例聚焦在哪一點上那我們看到這點當然我們還有未來努力精進的空間就是一直強調國家安全戰略不只是從上到下垂直的政策指導\n還有一個就是水平的跨部會的協商承擔不同的任務責任但是並不是相同的百分比那這個有一個戰略的框架指導會對我們未來施政上有更好的幫助那這個最後一張圖啊我們可以看到這個美國開啟了全球貿易制裁與中共這個\n嘴巴上乐意是讲进河了那会不会锻炼脱钩目前还看不出来我觉得永远他保留一个手法就是说他有一个妥协折中他的底线但他不会明讲那我们的外交经贸战略的因应呢我们用\n這個例子就是台積電這次我們看出來了它完全反映出把地緣經濟地緣政治地緣戰略串結成一個整體那在這個裡面的供應鏈裡面是相互供應鏈如果在這個時候把台積電的功能去掉\n那人人都是输家所以我相信我们坚持台积电在国内的持续发展在国外投资但是因为互为供应链就是相互依托谁都不能少谁所以看得到这个地缘经济他考虑的人口位置贸易源头产业链路地缘战略军事布局威泽赫祖维护利益\n地缘政治这个讲白了就是我们讲了就是说国家的利益优先合众连横第二个我们看到这些大国强权他一定是双标双轨\n这个没有说是从头到尾一贯一致的因此在这种情况下我们需要有一个国家安全战略我们的战略目标是牵动邻国的利益营造区域的平衡巩固贸易源头强化产业的链路多元确保多元生存的缝隙\n那这样子有利于我们的外交部局精进军事能量运用以小牵大虚实联动正齐相生的合纵连横\n那最后一个我们常常讲我们跟很多友好国家是同路人但是我是查了一些别的资料同路未必同道同道不同德同德不同心同心不同人同人不同调好朋友里面的分寸捏拿中间也不见得是完全是coherent同调的我想今天的问证以上的题目请院长做一个参考\n我們站在質詢的過程中間也是代表人民監督在同樣另一個角色上其實是互動學習我看到台沙過去我們很多的工作同仁只是因為今天角色換過來了我站在這邊也可以想到當年我站在對面的時候也被質詢過所以我們講這是互動學習我特別請院長給我們一些指教\n非常感謝委員每次聆聽委員的高見我真的是獲益良多更深深感受委員在準備這麼豐富、詳盡而且是非常難得的資料當中的用心尤其你剛剛對17項總統在國安高層會議的對照裡面關於人口對策、人工智慧、醫療、交通、金融體系沒有在17項當中\n也許之前之後都會在其他來彌補我想這個就是國家整個一體那過這段時間我們也做了多項的城市韌性以及全社會韌性的相關演習我們從演習跟演練當中期待能夠再發現一些不足之處可以做更有效率的來補充那麼尤其是委員一直強調國家安全策戰略\n國家的確需要一個安全的戰略那這個安全戰略委員當然是非常的專業那你我應該共同認知到這個安全戰略是在憲法架構下以總統統帥權為主衍生到各部會我們從資訊的收集到最後面的執行面都是在憲法的架構總統的統帥權這樣完整底下去做的安全架構\n這個倒是非常感謝委員能夠這樣來提醒那麼我一再也強調說我們在跟美國在這一次的關稅爭議的談判當中我們一直以國內的產業支持為優先出發再來就是我們從過去到現在備妥了方案希望能夠緊迫的最佳時間跟美方進行談判談判的過程\n在以爭取國家最大最大的利益維護產業國際競爭力讓國人能夠安心三項原則來進行那跟委員報告這個工作到目前進行我們仍然是在最優先行列的國家當中我們已經在4月11號\n有第一次的視訊會議現在雙方就視訊會議的內容再做更多的詳實精進希望期待最近的時間內很快的有一個更好的這個共通來處理雙方經貿產生的問題然而在這個國際經貿局勢大變的時候台灣應該有累積到國家的能量跟各國尤其包括跟美國我們採取更公平穩定的貿易關係這絕對有利於我們未來在\n科技產業供應鏈上領先地位的繼續的發揮所以以上這幾項都是總統在歷次會議當中明確的指示行政院也現在將17項的因應措施後續的一些立法修法工程計畫還有設施計畫的一個整體結構都已經在著手進行適當的時機我們就會拿出來討論我也始終認為台灣不能有戰後英雄\n台灣要有一個能夠帶領台灣走向和平的一個國家領導人我想賴總統也是秉持這樣的\n这样的自我的责任感所以他才提出说我们对国防安全我们国防预算能够在我们财政合一的许可之下以基于我们自己国防之所需对于设备的新购我们可以达到GDP3%这样的目标那么今年我们尝试要往这个目标来迈进当然这个是国家整体的财政结构的问题\n所以在多項的委員提到的過程當中總統也在日前有一個講話那麼我再替他來做一些說明從過去的西進到南向到東拓其實現在我們講究的是北和希望能夠有同步的發生同步建立好的關係當然我們會有除錯的選擇但是我們認為全世界四載之內都可以成為兄弟所以我們現在立足台灣\n布局全球\n行銷全世界我們只是在中間加了一個加強美國這是為產業而做的希望產業不要因為關稅問題喪失了自己的國際競爭力或者就國內的市場也變成這個物價開始上漲起來所以加強美國到美國投資到美國採購這都是政府的政策在這同時我們除了希望雙邊能夠基於共同利益得到一個對關稅的合理協議之外未來我們也會顧慮到是否有\n中國的貨品低價反傾向台灣造成我們國內各項的問題以及\n經過台灣違規轉運到美國到世界各地去讓我們在國際貿易的信任度上被打折這個也是目前我們在做的我相信這個在您提出的包括經濟軍事外交三方面要來就國家安全的考量這個方向跟現在政府的走向是一樣的容許未來有更多的機會向委員再來一一的請教在這幾個當中關於我們的\n全體性的 全國性的 甚至全球性的戰略思考跟戰略的構成我們希望跟委員 我再能夠有機會再向委員來請教\n最後我再跟您提出一個建議就是當國防預算在增加的過程中不只是向美方採購重要的軍事裝備或者是國內培養我們國防產業的基礎另外一個就是人才的培養我們軍事教育的經費要增加特別謝謝謝謝委員我們大家共同努力謝謝\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:14.271 --> 00:42.477\n主席有請卓院長請卓院長備詢卓院長您好這個從4月2號面對美國川普總統的對等關稅政策跟挑戰我想全世界的國家都承受了很大的壓力雖然在4月9號\n\n00:43.971 --> 01:13.284\n他又宣布延後90天但是90天以後我們面對的挑戰目前是做預印呢還是分工呢還是未來看到有關全球貿易的到底是分裂呢還是美國所謂的競合我想我們國內的所有部會首長都在這邊窮盡功夫大家希望能夠以維護國家利益的前提下找到一個比較好的解套方案是\n\n01:13.604 --> 01:36.722\n那么我目前先把这个议题搁置我先从恶务战争因为川普总统他说到从他上任以来是很快就会把恶务战争解决但是最近他面临到的挑战使他有一种想法甚至说他可以脱手不管了那因此这个产生的问题给了我们一个教训\n\n01:37.603 --> 01:55.063\n我们可以看到乌克兰是一个领土广大的国家台湾是一个海洋海岛国家一个是靠路上交通线那么台湾是海上交通线情况状况都不一样这个俄乌战争打到今天已经1152天了\n\n01:58.632 --> 02:14.233\n实际上在战争开始的头六个月,乌克兰的难民跑到欧洲国家已经超过1100万人,三年的战争下来虽然有几百万回去,目前还有600万人。\n\n02:15.174 --> 02:40.643\n在散播在欧洲各地那这种情况啊对台湾面对未来的两岸如果有一个冲突的挑战我们除了要照顾国人的安全另外一个就是我们在台湾的有很多的外籍的居民不只是从事事业投资教学也有我们很多友好邦交的这个laborforce啊\n\n02:41.303 --> 03:09.136\n那這個加起來我想外交部也了解將近90萬人那這種情況下要掌握一個預應時間讓友好國家跟我們有很好的溝通管道在兩岸情勢升級緊張到某種程度的情況下我們跟這些友好的國家要分擔責任我們要照顧我們的國民也要照顧其他國家在台灣工作的同仁那這邊你可以看到\n\n03:10.489 --> 03:39.784\n乌克兰跟台湾的面积比例是16.7比1那人口比例是1.94300万4300万对2300万但是密度比是1比8.7就说台湾人口密度非常高如果起冲突了我们除了希望能够产生嚇阻避免战争但是如果发生了就说中共犯台的情况下我们要保护我们的国土\n\n03:41.324 --> 04:06.523\n這個城鎮戰跟烏克蘭的狀況是不一樣的那另外一個值得我們關注的就是人均耗電比我們面積這麼小可是我們的耗電是烏克蘭的3.4倍那這個情況下讓我們知道就是說這個電力的供應跟電力的傳輸是我們的關鍵技術設施的第一優先的考量\n\n04:08.976 --> 04:33.532\n所以我们需要有一个所谓的共同图像这个图像是可以跨部会使用当我们谈乌克兰的时候我们了解台湾的大小也可以看到乌冬的战场目前这个面积已经可以含括两个台湾了所以它这个范例并不是适合拿台湾来比较说今天的乌克兰就是明日的台湾因为这个案例不同\n\n04:34.272 --> 04:53.285\n那烏東的戰場因為有美國的星鏈的技術所以它前線的士兵戰士跟家人通訊手機可以通在烏東的地區它都是靠星鏈提供通訊那麼因為我們在台灣的岸上的固定站台或者是Wi-Fi\n\n04:53.945 --> 05:13.144\n如果暂时冲突中断的话虽然我们跟湾外博弈星公司签约但是通讯频道的数量以及频宽还是有限的这个部分我们希望将来这个地方持续努力也要加强我们的韧性所以乌克兰的战场虽然看到了许多的无人机运用\n\n05:14.305 --> 05:24.169\n幾千架上萬架的使用這種消耗型的無人機是因為有starlink提供鏈路才可以使用但這個case在台灣並不會\n\n05:26.567 --> 05:55.232\n具有這種同樣的功能因此我們政府未來如果跟Starlink要做溝通因為馬斯克是說他要百分之百掌握權那我們政府當初是希望五十五十我想在這個溝通過程中間如果川普政府還是支持區域安全重視亞太和平我覺得這是一個溝通的管道那麼除了現有的英國的OneWeb以外我們還要強化其他的鏈路那這個就是我們的社會韌性\n\n05:56.252 --> 06:13.990\n那至於在加薩走廊的站場給我們一個慘痛的教訓也就是說當你失去電力供應失去了醫藥失去了食水失去了糧食這種情況下就是社會結構的脆弱性就抽出來了這張圖表顯示是從2022年的2月24號\n\n06:20.114 --> 06:42.646\n俄国开始侵略乌克兰或进犯乌克兰在两个月之内俄国乌克兰美国欧盟甚至联合国他的重大措施政策事势都显示在这里面但是我们发现在其中啊就是在头两个月中间有三次可以\n\n06:43.885 --> 06:59.637\n就是說停火協議但是都沒有達成目標當然每個國家他的政治目標跟他的軍事手段有不同的搭配方法可是如果以當時的現象來看今天如果達成停火協議當時是\n\n07:03.936 --> 07:25.915\n俄罗斯希望顿内斯克卢干斯克两个自治州变成独立国但是今天变成四个州被占领了加上克里米亚就五个地区如果当时能够具有魄力就讲不加入北约加入欧盟大家支持那乌冬的战场如果做一个很客观的严肃讨论\n\n07:26.876 --> 07:34.502\n這三年的仗除了一個世代的年輕人的教育人口社會設施全部毀掉以外\n\n07:36.385 --> 08:03.285\n戰爭的兩方沒有一個是贏家所以我們希望能夠掌握這種狀況看到關鍵的節點的時候要提供重要的分析因素因此這個方法論實際上是結合了這個所謂人工智慧的資料庫所以我們每一個戰場的情境我們都可以回溯將來檢討在哪個關鍵節點當時我們錯失了機會但是別人付出的教訓我們不要付第二次的學費\n\n08:05.250 --> 08:32.663\n那這個是當時4月21號4月24號的一個模擬情境的戰場情形你可以看到在這個上面的這個動態顯示實際上從4月份以後整個戰場就沒有擴大縮小除了去年9月的這個烏東他打了一塊小地方克爾斯克但現在俄國又幾乎拿回去了所以現在的談判\n\n08:33.916 --> 08:54.508\n可能要回到当年2015年2月15号这个明斯克二号条款可是呢因为双方在这13条里面都有背负了没有恪守这个条款的职责当然最后是俄罗斯撕毁条款那回过头来我们来想\n\n08:55.558 --> 09:13.420\n当年这个二战胜利我们光复台湾是因为马关条约在1895年的4月17号当时签订马关条约并不是单独割让台澎还包括辽东半岛但是因为呢当年俄国\n\n09:14.332 --> 09:23.180\n德國這個法國他們因為要享有原來的租界地所以他們不讓步因此蜻蜓又增加了3000萬兩白銀給這個日本\n\n09:26.727 --> 09:48.396\n至于其他的条款我就不提因此今天如果是俄罗斯跟乌克兰要谈到重新的停战协定以及签和平条约的话他要回到明斯克二号条款一共十三条我建议外交部的同仁在这个明斯克条款里面去了解一下他的细节\n\n09:49.315 --> 10:11.665\n因為所有東西你是回到上一次不管這條約接受或是撕毀可是它的precondition條件論就是你現在要回復談判的一個要求所以這個就是民視客的13條我想這個做一個參考\n\n10:13.971 --> 10:26.748\n那因為川普總統就任以來他在第一任這一年的任期內一定會向國會提出他的國家安全戰略報告那麼有國家安全戰略下面美國的國防部有國防\n\n10:29.209 --> 10:43.369\n在国防战略下他有他的军事战略那么还有他的印太战略还有他各种情报战略因此他是四个面向比方讲他的军事实力要被变他的外交立场要做预防\n\n10:44.130 --> 11:05.213\n他对市场经济南海要追求最重要的一条是美国现在专注法规专利他们很会修法保护所以这四个批实际上是国家安全战略里面一个共同的支撑那么因为我们现在希望我们的执政跟政府在这个任期内提出我们的一个国家安全战略\n\n11:05.874 --> 11:26.259\n那用這個戰略的架構讓我們的各個部會除了在政策上面從上到下有明確的政策指導在水平的協調上跨部會因為對應每一個不同的情境各部會他的分工跟承擔的責任並非按比例那這個點我提醒大家注意\n\n11:28.683 --> 11:53.414\n那前两天美国国会的特别助理团就是国会的对中共的这个小组团也访问也到这个我们立法院来访问那他们也关切到这个问题所以说你看这边不管是美国的国务院美国的这个国防部美国的CIA还有国会都有一个对中共政策研究小组可是他们的资讯是分享的所以你可以看这个\n\n11:56.601 --> 12:23.969\n川普就任以后他会定定他的核心目标国家利益实力元素战略要素兵力规模甚至在区域性他的解决方案他承担多少责任要付多少钱这个钱有可能是要现在的友好国家共同分担的所以他的这个战略指导从上到下明确他的实力从下到上要做支撑那这个给我们一个参考的一个构想\n\n12:28.025 --> 12:51.178\n比照美国作为我们的一个学习的经验,国家安全战略,国防战略,军事战略,以及各地区的作战的战略,它是有重叠性的,也就是说有明确的指导。因为目前我们政府并没有官方版的国家安全战略,虽然我们公布了一个四年期国防总检讨,但是美国在2017年就把它取消掉了。\n\n12:52.096 --> 13:07.518\n那因為就是因為從上到下跟下到上的支撐不能同調所以他就改成兩年一版的國防戰略因此我們在國防法內將來可以提出這個跨黨協商來修改這個國防法的要求因為我們只有QDR\n\n13:08.118 --> 13:28.554\n虽然是四年期总检讨但是是前瞻我们并没有回顾我这个四年跟过去四年就上一个版本中间有哪些落差或是哪些还力有所未带的那我们要努力来做那么接着我们政府在今年又要出版国防战略那这个\n\n13:29.383 --> 13:50.276\nQD从上一个版本的48页进步到现在的63页内容增加了一些那么原来国防战略跟军事战略是一页半现在成长到四页我们也肯定但是跟邻近国家比内容还不足我们希望在国防报告书白皮书出来以后能够看得到有所精进\n\n13:51.004 --> 14:06.284\n那麼因為國家安全的各個領域,包括社會堅韌、太和和平、民心安定、經濟繁榮、軍事堅強,這裡面不同的面向,因為有不同的直接督導的長官,\n\n14:08.496 --> 14:35.463\n有总统的有院长的有外交国防的有陆委的有海委的有国安会的那现在总统成立了三个特别委员会我们是肯定这三个课点委员会虽然的跨部会的协商还有民间有一些专业人士参与可是专业人士参与他提出的建言或建议要反映到不会去变成就说他并不是以\n\n14:36.457 --> 14:54.682\n成比例的這個分工單則而是這些要做的事要並到下一年的國防預算裡面他才能夠付錢雖然現在誠意很高但是現在呢目前只是做出建言那我們用這個來顯示一個為什麼需要一個結構性的支撐\n\n14:57.918 --> 15:22.447\n现在我们都在讲人工智慧的基础国内已经广泛在运用政府机构在用但是显然这个运用的方法还不能够短期达标就是有关于我们的所谓的关键基础设施跟全社会任性它这个互动关系并不是只是排列它的顺序哪一个优先哪个第二因此我们在这边你可以看出来\n\n15:26.004 --> 15:50.783\n他利用人工智慧根据我们的关键因素排出了不同的互动关系那这个互动关系呢是根据当前我们根据国际情势国内社会的韧性如何强化要投资什么时间可以达成所以它是一个互动的关联性这边看得到啊最关键性的东西啊就是电网\n\n15:51.940 --> 16:05.257\n電力分配網路設施資安能源的進口那社會結構還有呢醫療體系另外就是金融體系我們千萬不能因為\n\n16:06.837 --> 16:30.359\n因為遭到斷電或是海纜斷電外匯存底不能運用金融這個會受極大的影響因此在這個結構圖上我們可以提供這個院內同仁做個參考這個是他不只是看到表象的第一層他甚至向下還可以延伸到第三層那這種情況下可以加快我們的韌性結構的強度的這個推展\n\n16:34.844 --> 17:00.428\n这张图是从川普总统第45任到拜登总统46任到现在他回来第47任美国作为一个强权影响整个市局它可以运用的所谓的地缘战略地缘政治地缘经济它的组合运用它这里面在这个虚线圈圈里面涵盖了20个选项\n\n17:02.142 --> 17:27.544\n那至于他把你排出15个肮脏国这个他认为贸易不均等那是他的方法那至于他的手段呢这里面就产生了一个施压作为的不定性一个反复无常那对美国来讲他看到利可是必能可能是周遭国家承担因此我们要有我们的方法论去面对这个而不是说等他出招我们做反应虽然我们现在\n\n17:27.984 --> 17:43.949\n在您這邊召集的會議下880億後面會有很多深入的看法但是只是對於關稅但是對於外匯存底美債啦匯率啦黃金儲存啦這個我們內部啊當然跨部會要有一個更深入的這個協商那這個這是一個方法論啊就是我們來解看啊川普總統他的目的是美國利益優先\n\n17:58.154 --> 18:27.225\n美国再次伟大那他的方法是什么呢他采用了新霸权主义新重商手艺新孤立主义以及新工业主义目的方法他还有的手段他的手段非常厉害双重标准两手策略左右换力内外折中因此对于这个外面四个轴向我们再去看我们对事情判断通常有八个不同的面向就是主观的\n\n18:28.513 --> 18:54.272\n客观的宏观的为干的乐观的悲观的前瞻的反思的对这个不同的面向组合再去参考中国大陆的聚焦跟美国的聚焦我们在中间选择什么样的选项这里面啊没有最佳方案只是一个除错方案提供你选项中间哪些不理想的你可以把它太除那虽然这个\n\n18:55.083 --> 19:22.029\n这很多是结合了西方的兵学思想跟我们的孙子兵法这个概念上八种组合八种不同的面向就64个种甚至再有交错组合我们甚至可以产生512个选项但不是选项来支持你哪个好而是在选项过程中把不确定因素对我们不利的先太除就说犯错的机会比较少那这个方法论是未来我想提供我们的智库\n\n19:22.629 --> 19:40.103\n或者是学员单位做成一个政策建言提供我们政府做一个参考那这个呢就是这一次美中竞合外交部用的字是竞合是讲美国有竞争跟合作\n\n19:41.469 --> 19:59.252\n這competitioncorporation叫做competition但是也可能是美中鍛煉脫鉤結構那這種情況下他選了這五個國家比方講包括這個英國澳洲印度日本韓國這五個國家如何在中間博弈他的這個\n\n20:00.529 --> 20:23.114\n理論啊那這是一種方法論我覺得我們智庫可以做那同樣這五個國家他們自己彼此之間私下怎麼協商因為他們有的還是參與一帶一路所以中國大陸也在帶風向所以這個情況下我們對自己的角色定位以及調節的空間有多少我覺得要有一點方法論而不是用單面的論述那這個\n\n20:27.723 --> 20:43.441\n我也是提供贵院以及我们政府部门希望参考我们需要一个国家安全战略那么里面产生国内环境的影响还有国际环境的冲突左右各列了12项\n\n20:44.707 --> 21:11.103\n那他的目的呢是最后能够做风险评估对于聚焦在两岸情势外交政策国防政策经济政策能源政策治安政策人口政策社会的韧性做一个客观的分析最后产生的国家安全战略是什么呢是促进繁荣社会和谐维护主权保护民主和平避战强化安全这个是我们国家安全战略的目标那根据这个\n\n21:13.571 --> 21:33.329\n賴總統的17條我們發現這17條裡面它也不是同樣的百分比例聚焦在哪一點上那我們看到這點當然我們還有未來努力精進的空間就是一直強調國家安全戰略不只是從上到下垂直的政策指導\n\n21:34.330 --> 21:56.807\n還有一個就是水平的跨部會的協商承擔不同的任務責任但是並不是相同的百分比那這個有一個戰略的框架指導會對我們未來施政上有更好的幫助那這個最後一張圖啊我們可以看到這個美國開啟了全球貿易制裁與中共這個\n\n21:58.496 --> 22:14.493\n嘴巴上乐意是讲进河了那会不会锻炼脱钩目前还看不出来我觉得永远他保留一个手法就是说他有一个妥协折中他的底线但他不会明讲那我们的外交经贸战略的因应呢我们用\n\n22:15.554 --> 22:33.306\n這個例子就是台積電這次我們看出來了它完全反映出把地緣經濟地緣政治地緣戰略串結成一個整體那在這個裡面的供應鏈裡面是相互供應鏈如果在這個時候把台積電的功能去掉\n\n22:34.212 --> 22:57.823\n那人人都是输家所以我相信我们坚持台积电在国内的持续发展在国外投资但是因为互为供应链就是相互依托谁都不能少谁所以看得到这个地缘经济他考虑的人口位置贸易源头产业链路地缘战略军事布局威泽赫祖维护利益\n\n22:59.017 --> 23:10.730\n地缘政治这个讲白了就是我们讲了就是说国家的利益优先合众连横第二个我们看到这些大国强权他一定是双标双轨\n\n23:13.451 --> 23:32.126\n这个没有说是从头到尾一贯一致的因此在这种情况下我们需要有一个国家安全战略我们的战略目标是牵动邻国的利益营造区域的平衡巩固贸易源头强化产业的链路多元确保多元生存的缝隙\n\n23:32.927 --> 23:41.669\n那这样子有利于我们的外交部局精进军事能量运用以小牵大虚实联动正齐相生的合纵连横\n\n23:42.557 --> 24:08.897\n那最后一个我们常常讲我们跟很多友好国家是同路人但是我是查了一些别的资料同路未必同道同道不同德同德不同心同心不同人同人不同调好朋友里面的分寸捏拿中间也不见得是完全是coherent同调的我想今天的问证以上的题目请院长做一个参考\n\n24:09.857 --> 24:32.404\n我們站在質詢的過程中間也是代表人民監督在同樣另一個角色上其實是互動學習我看到台沙過去我們很多的工作同仁只是因為今天角色換過來了我站在這邊也可以想到當年我站在對面的時候也被質詢過所以我們講這是互動學習我特別請院長給我們一些指教\n\n24:33.649 --> 24:57.743\n非常感謝委員每次聆聽委員的高見我真的是獲益良多更深深感受委員在準備這麼豐富、詳盡而且是非常難得的資料當中的用心尤其你剛剛對17項總統在國安高層會議的對照裡面關於人口對策、人工智慧、醫療、交通、金融體系沒有在17項當中\n\n24:59.924 --> 25:26.258\n也許之前之後都會在其他來彌補我想這個就是國家整個一體那過這段時間我們也做了多項的城市韌性以及全社會韌性的相關演習我們從演習跟演練當中期待能夠再發現一些不足之處可以做更有效率的來補充那麼尤其是委員一直強調國家安全策戰略\n\n25:26.958 --> 25:51.409\n國家的確需要一個安全的戰略那這個安全戰略委員當然是非常的專業那你我應該共同認知到這個安全戰略是在憲法架構下以總統統帥權為主衍生到各部會我們從資訊的收集到最後面的執行面都是在憲法的架構總統的統帥權這樣完整底下去做的安全架構\n\n25:52.629 --> 26:16.677\n這個倒是非常感謝委員能夠這樣來提醒那麼我一再也強調說我們在跟美國在這一次的關稅爭議的談判當中我們一直以國內的產業支持為優先出發再來就是我們從過去到現在備妥了方案希望能夠緊迫的最佳時間跟美方進行談判談判的過程\n\n26:17.884 --> 26:34.579\n在以爭取國家最大最大的利益維護產業國際競爭力讓國人能夠安心三項原則來進行那跟委員報告這個工作到目前進行我們仍然是在最優先行列的國家當中我們已經在4月11號\n\n26:35.580 --> 27:00.976\n有第一次的視訊會議現在雙方就視訊會議的內容再做更多的詳實精進希望期待最近的時間內很快的有一個更好的這個共通來處理雙方經貿產生的問題然而在這個國際經貿局勢大變的時候台灣應該有累積到國家的能量跟各國尤其包括跟美國我們採取更公平穩定的貿易關係這絕對有利於我們未來在\n\n27:04.571 --> 27:31.105\n科技產業供應鏈上領先地位的繼續的發揮所以以上這幾項都是總統在歷次會議當中明確的指示行政院也現在將17項的因應措施後續的一些立法修法工程計畫還有設施計畫的一個整體結構都已經在著手進行適當的時機我們就會拿出來討論我也始終認為台灣不能有戰後英雄\n\n27:32.128 --> 27:38.663\n台灣要有一個能夠帶領台灣走向和平的一個國家領導人我想賴總統也是秉持這樣的\n\n27:39.914 --> 28:04.027\n这样的自我的责任感所以他才提出说我们对国防安全我们国防预算能够在我们财政合一的许可之下以基于我们自己国防之所需对于设备的新购我们可以达到GDP3%这样的目标那么今年我们尝试要往这个目标来迈进当然这个是国家整体的财政结构的问题\n\n28:04.608 --> 28:32.512\n所以在多項的委員提到的過程當中總統也在日前有一個講話那麼我再替他來做一些說明從過去的西進到南向到東拓其實現在我們講究的是北和希望能夠有同步的發生同步建立好的關係當然我們會有除錯的選擇但是我們認為全世界四載之內都可以成為兄弟所以我們現在立足台灣\n\n28:34.196 --> 28:34.722\n布局全球\n\n28:35.839 --> 29:04.585\n行銷全世界我們只是在中間加了一個加強美國這是為產業而做的希望產業不要因為關稅問題喪失了自己的國際競爭力或者就國內的市場也變成這個物價開始上漲起來所以加強美國到美國投資到美國採購這都是政府的政策在這同時我們除了希望雙邊能夠基於共同利益得到一個對關稅的合理協議之外未來我們也會顧慮到是否有\n\n29:05.365 --> 29:09.174\n中國的貨品低價反傾向台灣造成我們國內各項的問題以及\n\n29:12.050 --> 29:36.797\n經過台灣違規轉運到美國到世界各地去讓我們在國際貿易的信任度上被打折這個也是目前我們在做的我相信這個在您提出的包括經濟軍事外交三方面要來就國家安全的考量這個方向跟現在政府的走向是一樣的容許未來有更多的機會向委員再來一一的請教在這幾個當中關於我們的\n\n29:37.222 --> 29:47.357\n全體性的全國性的甚至全球性的戰略思考跟戰略的構成我們希望跟委員我再能夠有機會再向委員來請教\n\n29:48.779 --> 30:11.423\n最後我再跟您提出一個建議就是當國防預算在增加的過程中不只是向美方採購重要的軍事裝備或者是國內培養我們國防產業的基礎另外一個就是人才的培養我們軍事教育的經費要增加特別謝謝謝謝委員我們大家共同努力謝謝\n\n","segments":[{"start":14.271,"end":42.477,"text":"主席有請卓院長請卓院長備詢卓院長您好這個從4月2號面對美國川普總統的對等關稅政策跟挑戰我想全世界的國家都承受了很大的壓力雖然在4月9號"},{"start":43.971,"end":73.284,"text":"他又宣布延後90天但是90天以後我們面對的挑戰目前是做預印呢還是分工呢還是未來看到有關全球貿易的到底是分裂呢還是美國所謂的競合我想我們國內的所有部會首長都在這邊窮盡功夫大家希望能夠以維護國家利益的前提下找到一個比較好的解套方案是"},{"start":73.604,"end":96.722,"text":"那么我目前先把这个议题搁置我先从恶务战争因为川普总统他说到从他上任以来是很快就会把恶务战争解决但是最近他面临到的挑战使他有一种想法甚至说他可以脱手不管了那因此这个产生的问题给了我们一个教训"},{"start":97.603,"end":115.063,"text":"我们可以看到乌克兰是一个领土广大的国家台湾是一个海洋海岛国家一个是靠路上交通线那么台湾是海上交通线情况状况都不一样这个俄乌战争打到今天已经1152天了"},{"start":118.632,"end":134.233,"text":"实际上在战争开始的头六个月,乌克兰的难民跑到欧洲国家已经超过1100万人,三年的战争下来虽然有几百万回去,目前还有600万人。"},{"start":135.174,"end":160.643,"text":"在散播在欧洲各地那这种情况啊对台湾面对未来的两岸如果有一个冲突的挑战我们除了要照顾国人的安全另外一个就是我们在台湾的有很多的外籍的居民不只是从事事业投资教学也有我们很多友好邦交的这个labor force啊"},{"start":161.303,"end":189.136,"text":"那這個加起來我想外交部也了解將近90萬人那這種情況下要掌握一個預應時間讓友好國家跟我們有很好的溝通管道在兩岸情勢升級緊張到某種程度的情況下我們跟這些友好的國家要分擔責任我們要照顧我們的國民也要照顧其他國家在台灣工作的同仁那這邊你可以看到"},{"start":190.489,"end":219.784,"text":"乌克兰跟台湾的面积比例是16.7比1那人口比例是1.9 4300万4300万对2300万但是密度比是1比8.7就说台湾人口密度非常高如果起冲突了我们除了希望能够产生嚇阻避免战争但是如果发生了就说中共犯台的情况下我们要保护我们的国土"},{"start":221.324,"end":246.523,"text":"這個城鎮戰跟烏克蘭的狀況是不一樣的那另外一個值得我們關注的就是人均耗電比我們面積這麼小可是我們的耗電是烏克蘭的3.4倍那這個情況下讓我們知道就是說這個電力的供應跟電力的傳輸是我們的關鍵技術設施的第一優先的考量"},{"start":248.976,"end":273.532,"text":"所以我们需要有一个所谓的共同图像这个图像是可以跨部会使用当我们谈乌克兰的时候我们了解台湾的大小也可以看到乌冬的战场目前这个面积已经可以含括两个台湾了所以它这个范例并不是适合拿台湾来比较说今天的乌克兰就是明日的台湾因为这个案例不同"},{"start":274.272,"end":293.285,"text":"那烏東的戰場因為有美國的星鏈的技術所以它前線的士兵戰士跟家人通訊手機可以通在烏東的地區它都是靠星鏈提供通訊那麼因為我們在台灣的岸上的固定站台或者是Wi-Fi"},{"start":293.945,"end":313.144,"text":"如果暂时冲突中断的话虽然我们跟湾外博弈星公司签约但是通讯频道的数量以及频宽还是有限的这个部分我们希望将来这个地方持续努力也要加强我们的韧性所以乌克兰的战场虽然看到了许多的无人机运用"},{"start":314.305,"end":324.169,"text":"幾千架上萬架的使用這種消耗型的無人機是因為有starlink提供鏈路才可以使用但這個case在台灣並不會"},{"start":326.567,"end":355.232,"text":"具有這種同樣的功能因此我們政府未來如果跟Starlink要做溝通因為馬斯克是說他要百分之百掌握權那我們政府當初是希望五十五十我想在這個溝通過程中間如果川普政府還是支持區域安全重視亞太和平我覺得這是一個溝通的管道那麼除了現有的英國的One Web以外我們還要強化其他的鏈路那這個就是我們的社會韌性"},{"start":356.252,"end":373.99,"text":"那至於在加薩走廊的站場給我們一個慘痛的教訓也就是說當你失去電力供應失去了醫藥 失去了食水 失去了糧食這種情況下就是社會結構的脆弱性就抽出來了這張圖表顯示是從2022年的2月24號"},{"start":380.114,"end":402.646,"text":"俄国开始侵略乌克兰或进犯乌克兰在两个月之内俄国乌克兰美国欧盟甚至联合国他的重大措施政策事势都显示在这里面但是我们发现在其中啊就是在头两个月中间有三次可以"},{"start":403.885,"end":419.637,"text":"就是說停火協議但是都沒有達成目標當然每個國家他的政治目標跟他的軍事手段有不同的搭配方法可是如果以當時的現象來看今天如果達成停火協議當時是"},{"start":423.936,"end":445.915,"text":"俄罗斯希望顿内斯克 卢干斯克两个自治州变成独立国但是今天变成四个州被占领了加上克里米亚就五个地区如果当时能够具有魄力就讲不加入北约加入欧盟大家支持那乌冬的战场如果做一个很客观的严肃讨论"},{"start":446.876,"end":454.502,"text":"這三年的仗除了一個世代的年輕人的教育人口社會設施全部毀掉以外"},{"start":456.385,"end":483.285,"text":"戰爭的兩方沒有一個是贏家所以我們希望能夠掌握這種狀況看到關鍵的節點的時候要提供重要的分析因素因此這個方法論實際上是結合了這個所謂人工智慧的資料庫所以我們每一個戰場的情境我們都可以回溯將來檢討在哪個關鍵節點當時我們錯失了機會但是別人付出的教訓我們不要付第二次的學費"},{"start":485.25,"end":512.663,"text":"那這個是當時4月21號4月24號的一個模擬情境的戰場情形你可以看到在這個上面的這個動態顯示實際上從4月份以後整個戰場就沒有擴大縮小除了去年9月的這個烏東他打了一塊小地方克爾斯克但現在俄國又幾乎拿回去了所以現在的談判"},{"start":513.916,"end":534.508,"text":"可能要回到当年2015年2月15号这个明斯克二号条款可是呢因为双方在这13条里面都有背负了没有恪守这个条款的职责当然最后是俄罗斯撕毁条款那回过头来我们来想"},{"start":535.558,"end":553.42,"text":"当年这个二战胜利我们光复台湾是因为马关条约在1895年的4月17号当时签订马关条约并不是单独割让台澎还包括辽东半岛但是因为呢当年俄国"},{"start":554.332,"end":563.18,"text":"德國這個法國他們因為要享有原來的租界地所以他們不讓步因此蜻蜓又增加了3000萬兩白銀給這個日本"},{"start":566.727,"end":588.396,"text":"至于其他的条款我就不提因此今天如果是俄罗斯跟乌克兰要谈到重新的停战协定以及签和平条约的话他要回到明斯克二号条款一共十三条我建议外交部的同仁在这个明斯克条款里面去了解一下他的细节"},{"start":589.315,"end":611.665,"text":"因為所有東西你是回到上一次不管這條約接受或是撕毀可是它的precondition條件論就是你現在要回復談判的一個要求所以這個就是民視客的13條我想這個做一個參考"},{"start":613.971,"end":626.748,"text":"那因為川普總統就任以來他在第一任這一年的任期內一定會向國會提出他的國家安全戰略報告那麼有國家安全戰略下面美國的國防部有國防"},{"start":629.209,"end":643.369,"text":"在国防战略下他有他的军事战略那么还有他的印太战略还有他各种情报战略因此他是四个面向比方讲他的军事实力要被变他的外交立场要做预防"},{"start":644.13,"end":665.213,"text":"他对市场经济南海要追求最重要的一条是美国现在专注法规专利他们很会修法保护所以这四个批实际上是国家安全战略里面一个共同的支撑那么因为我们现在希望我们的执政跟政府在这个任期内提出我们的一个国家安全战略"},{"start":665.874,"end":686.259,"text":"那用這個戰略的架構讓我們的各個部會除了在政策上面從上到下有明確的政策指導在水平的協調上跨部會因為對應每一個不同的情境各部會他的分工跟承擔的責任並非按比例那這個點我提醒大家注意"},{"start":688.683,"end":713.414,"text":"那前两天美国国会的特别助理团就是国会的对中共的这个小组团也访问也到这个我们立法院来访问那他们也关切到这个问题所以说你看这边不管是美国的国务院美国的这个国防部美国的CIA还有国会都有一个对中共政策研究小组可是他们的资讯是分享的所以你可以看这个"},{"start":716.601,"end":743.969,"text":"川普就任以后他会定定他的核心目标国家利益实力元素战略要素兵力规模甚至在区域性他的解决方案他承担多少责任要付多少钱这个钱有可能是要现在的友好国家共同分担的所以他的这个战略指导从上到下明确他的实力从下到上要做支撑那这个给我们一个参考的一个构想"},{"start":748.025,"end":771.178,"text":"比照美国作为我们的一个学习的经验,国家安全战略,国防战略,军事战略,以及各地区的作战的战略,它是有重叠性的,也就是说有明确的指导。因为目前我们政府并没有官方版的国家安全战略,虽然我们公布了一个四年期国防总检讨,但是美国在2017年就把它取消掉了。"},{"start":772.096,"end":787.518,"text":"那因為就是因為從上到下跟下到上的支撐不能同調所以他就改成兩年一版的國防戰略因此我們在國防法內將來可以提出這個跨黨協商來修改這個國防法的要求因為我們只有QDR"},{"start":788.118,"end":808.554,"text":"虽然是四年期总检讨但是是前瞻我们并没有回顾我这个四年跟过去四年就上一个版本中间有哪些落差或是哪些还力有所未带的那我们要努力来做那么接着我们政府在今年又要出版国防战略那这个"},{"start":809.383,"end":830.276,"text":"QD从上一个版本的48页进步到现在的63页内容增加了一些那么原来国防战略跟军事战略是一页半现在成长到四页我们也肯定但是跟邻近国家比内容还不足我们希望在国防报告书白皮书出来以后能够看得到有所精进"},{"start":831.004,"end":846.284,"text":"那麼因為國家安全的各個領域,包括社會堅韌、太和和平、民心安定、經濟繁榮、軍事堅強,這裡面不同的面向,因為有不同的直接督導的長官,"},{"start":848.496,"end":875.463,"text":"有总统的有院长的有外交国防的有陆委的有海委的有国安会的那现在总统成立了三个特别委员会我们是肯定这三个课点委员会虽然的跨部会的协商还有民间有一些专业人士参与可是专业人士参与他提出的建言或建议要反映到不会去变成就说他并不是以"},{"start":876.457,"end":894.682,"text":"成比例的這個分工單則而是這些要做的事要並到下一年的國防預算裡面他才能夠付錢雖然現在誠意很高但是現在呢目前只是做出建言那我們用這個來顯示一個為什麼需要一個結構性的支撐"},{"start":897.918,"end":922.447,"text":"现在我们都在讲人工智慧的基础国内已经广泛在运用政府机构在用但是显然这个运用的方法还不能够短期达标就是有关于我们的所谓的关键基础设施跟全社会任性它这个互动关系并不是只是排列它的顺序哪一个优先哪个第二因此我们在这边你可以看出来"},{"start":926.004,"end":950.783,"text":"他利用人工智慧根据我们的关键因素排出了不同的互动关系那这个互动关系呢是根据当前我们根据国际情势国内社会的韧性如何强化要投资什么时间可以达成所以它是一个互动的关联性这边看得到啊最关键性的东西啊就是电网"},{"start":951.94,"end":965.257,"text":"電力分配網路設施資安能源的進口那社會結構還有呢醫療體系另外就是金融體系我們千萬不能因為"},{"start":966.837,"end":990.359,"text":"因為遭到斷電或是海纜斷電外匯存底不能運用金融這個會受極大的影響因此在這個結構圖上我們可以提供這個院內同仁做個參考這個是他不只是看到表象的第一層他甚至向下還可以延伸到第三層那這種情況下可以加快我們的韌性結構的強度的這個推展"},{"start":994.844,"end":1020.428,"text":"这张图是从川普总统第45任到拜登总统46任到现在他回来第47任美国作为一个强权影响整个市局它可以运用的所谓的地缘战略地缘政治地缘经济它的组合运用它这里面在这个虚线圈圈里面涵盖了20个选项"},{"start":1022.142,"end":1047.544,"text":"那至于他把你排出15个肮脏国这个他认为贸易不均等那是他的方法那至于他的手段呢这里面就产生了一个施压作为的不定性一个反复无常那对美国来讲他看到利可是必能可能是周遭国家承担因此我们要有我们的方法论去面对这个而不是说等他出招我们做反应虽然我们现在"},{"start":1047.984,"end":1063.949,"text":"在您這邊召集的會議下880億後面會有很多深入的看法但是只是對於關稅但是對於外匯存底美債啦匯率啦黃金儲存啦這個我們內部啊當然跨部會要有一個更深入的這個協商那這個這是一個方法論啊就是我們來解看啊川普總統他的目的是美國利益優先"},{"start":1078.154,"end":1107.225,"text":"美国再次伟大那他的方法是什么呢他采用了新霸权主义新重商手艺新孤立主义以及新工业主义目的方法他还有的手段他的手段非常厉害双重标准两手策略左右换力内外折中因此对于这个外面四个轴向我们再去看我们对事情判断通常有八个不同的面向就是主观的"},{"start":1108.513,"end":1134.272,"text":"客观的宏观的为干的乐观的悲观的前瞻的反思的对这个不同的面向组合再去参考中国大陆的聚焦跟美国的聚焦我们在中间选择什么样的选项这里面啊没有最佳方案只是一个除错方案提供你选项中间哪些不理想的你可以把它太除那虽然这个"},{"start":1135.083,"end":1162.029,"text":"这很多是结合了西方的兵学思想跟我们的孙子兵法这个概念上八种组合八种不同的面向就64个种甚至再有交错组合我们甚至可以产生512个选项但不是选项来支持你哪个好而是在选项过程中把不确定因素对我们不利的先太除就说犯错的机会比较少那这个方法论是未来我想提供我们的智库"},{"start":1162.629,"end":1180.103,"text":"或者是学员单位做成一个政策建言提供我们政府做一个参考那这个呢就是这一次美中竞合外交部用的字是竞合是讲美国有竞争跟合作"},{"start":1181.469,"end":1199.252,"text":"這competition corporation叫做competition但是也可能是美中鍛煉脫鉤結構那這種情況下他選了這五個國家比方講包括這個英國澳洲印度日本韓國這五個國家如何在中間博弈他的這個"},{"start":1200.529,"end":1223.114,"text":"理論啊那這是一種方法論我覺得我們智庫可以做那同樣這五個國家他們自己彼此之間私下怎麼協商因為他們有的還是參與一帶一路所以中國大陸也在帶風向所以這個情況下我們對自己的角色定位以及調節的空間有多少我覺得要有一點方法論而不是用單面的論述那這個"},{"start":1227.723,"end":1243.441,"text":"我也是提供贵院以及我们政府部门希望参考我们需要一个国家安全战略那么里面产生国内环境的影响还有国际环境的冲突左右各列了12项"},{"start":1244.707,"end":1271.103,"text":"那他的目的呢是最后能够做风险评估对于聚焦在两岸情势外交政策国防政策经济政策能源政策治安政策人口政策社会的韧性做一个客观的分析最后产生的国家安全战略是什么呢是促进繁荣社会和谐维护主权保护民主和平避战强化安全这个是我们国家安全战略的目标那根据这个"},{"start":1273.571,"end":1293.329,"text":"賴總統的17條我們發現這17條裡面它也不是同樣的百分比例聚焦在哪一點上那我們看到這點當然我們還有未來努力精進的空間就是一直強調國家安全戰略不只是從上到下垂直的政策指導"},{"start":1294.33,"end":1316.807,"text":"還有一個就是水平的跨部會的協商承擔不同的任務責任但是並不是相同的百分比那這個有一個戰略的框架指導會對我們未來施政上有更好的幫助那這個最後一張圖啊我們可以看到這個美國開啟了全球貿易制裁與中共這個"},{"start":1318.496,"end":1334.493,"text":"嘴巴上乐意是讲进河了那会不会锻炼脱钩目前还看不出来我觉得永远他保留一个手法就是说他有一个妥协折中他的底线但他不会明讲那我们的外交经贸战略的因应呢我们用"},{"start":1335.554,"end":1353.306,"text":"這個例子就是台積電這次我們看出來了它完全反映出把地緣經濟地緣政治地緣戰略串結成一個整體那在這個裡面的供應鏈裡面是相互供應鏈如果在這個時候把台積電的功能去掉"},{"start":1354.212,"end":1377.823,"text":"那人人都是输家所以我相信我们坚持台积电在国内的持续发展在国外投资但是因为互为供应链就是相互依托谁都不能少谁所以看得到这个地缘经济他考虑的人口位置贸易源头产业链路地缘战略军事布局威泽赫祖维护利益"},{"start":1379.017,"end":1390.73,"text":"地缘政治这个讲白了就是我们讲了就是说国家的利益优先合众连横第二个我们看到这些大国强权他一定是双标双轨"},{"start":1393.451,"end":1412.126,"text":"这个没有说是从头到尾一贯一致的因此在这种情况下我们需要有一个国家安全战略我们的战略目标是牵动邻国的利益营造区域的平衡巩固贸易源头强化产业的链路多元确保多元生存的缝隙"},{"start":1412.927,"end":1421.669,"text":"那这样子有利于我们的外交部局精进军事能量运用以小牵大虚实联动正齐相生的合纵连横"},{"start":1422.557,"end":1448.897,"text":"那最后一个我们常常讲我们跟很多友好国家是同路人但是我是查了一些别的资料同路未必同道同道不同德同德不同心同心不同人同人不同调好朋友里面的分寸捏拿中间也不见得是完全是coherent同调的我想今天的问证以上的题目请院长做一个参考"},{"start":1449.857,"end":1472.404,"text":"我們站在質詢的過程中間也是代表人民監督在同樣另一個角色上其實是互動學習我看到台沙過去我們很多的工作同仁只是因為今天角色換過來了我站在這邊也可以想到當年我站在對面的時候也被質詢過所以我們講這是互動學習我特別請院長給我們一些指教"},{"start":1473.649,"end":1497.743,"text":"非常感謝委員每次聆聽委員的高見我真的是獲益良多更深深感受委員在準備這麼豐富、詳盡而且是非常難得的資料當中的用心尤其你剛剛對17項總統在國安高層會議的對照裡面關於人口對策、人工智慧、醫療、交通、金融體系沒有在17項當中"},{"start":1499.924,"end":1526.258,"text":"也許之前之後都會在其他來彌補我想這個就是國家整個一體那過這段時間我們也做了多項的城市韌性以及全社會韌性的相關演習我們從演習跟演練當中期待能夠再發現一些不足之處可以做更有效率的來補充那麼尤其是委員一直強調國家安全策戰略"},{"start":1526.958,"end":1551.409,"text":"國家的確需要一個安全的戰略那這個安全戰略委員當然是非常的專業那你我應該共同認知到這個安全戰略是在憲法架構下以總統統帥權為主衍生到各部會我們從資訊的收集到最後面的執行面都是在憲法的架構總統的統帥權這樣完整底下去做的安全架構"},{"start":1552.629,"end":1576.677,"text":"這個倒是非常感謝委員能夠這樣來提醒那麼我一再也強調說我們在跟美國在這一次的關稅爭議的談判當中我們一直以國內的產業支持為優先出發再來就是我們從過去到現在備妥了方案希望能夠緊迫的最佳時間跟美方進行談判談判的過程"},{"start":1577.884,"end":1594.579,"text":"在以爭取國家最大最大的利益維護產業國際競爭力讓國人能夠安心三項原則來進行那跟委員報告這個工作到目前進行我們仍然是在最優先行列的國家當中我們已經在4月11號"},{"start":1595.58,"end":1620.976,"text":"有第一次的視訊會議現在雙方就視訊會議的內容再做更多的詳實精進希望期待最近的時間內很快的有一個更好的這個共通來處理雙方經貿產生的問題然而在這個國際經貿局勢大變的時候台灣應該有累積到國家的能量跟各國尤其包括跟美國我們採取更公平穩定的貿易關係這絕對有利於我們未來在"},{"start":1624.571,"end":1651.105,"text":"科技產業供應鏈上領先地位的繼續的發揮所以以上這幾項都是總統在歷次會議當中明確的指示行政院也現在將17項的因應措施後續的一些立法修法工程計畫還有設施計畫的一個整體結構都已經在著手進行適當的時機我們就會拿出來討論我也始終認為台灣不能有戰後英雄"},{"start":1652.128,"end":1658.663,"text":"台灣要有一個能夠帶領台灣走向和平的一個國家領導人我想賴總統也是秉持這樣的"},{"start":1659.914,"end":1684.027,"text":"这样的自我的责任感所以他才提出说我们对国防安全我们国防预算能够在我们财政合一的许可之下以基于我们自己国防之所需对于设备的新购我们可以达到GDP3%这样的目标那么今年我们尝试要往这个目标来迈进当然这个是国家整体的财政结构的问题"},{"start":1684.608,"end":1712.512,"text":"所以在多項的委員提到的過程當中總統也在日前有一個講話那麼我再替他來做一些說明從過去的西進到南向到東拓其實現在我們講究的是北和希望能夠有同步的發生同步建立好的關係當然我們會有除錯的選擇但是我們認為全世界四載之內都可以成為兄弟所以我們現在立足台灣"},{"start":1714.196,"end":1714.722,"text":"布局全球"},{"start":1715.839,"end":1744.585,"text":"行銷全世界我們只是在中間加了一個加強美國這是為產業而做的希望產業不要因為關稅問題喪失了自己的國際競爭力或者就國內的市場也變成這個物價開始上漲起來所以加強美國到美國投資到美國採購這都是政府的政策在這同時我們除了希望雙邊能夠基於共同利益得到一個對關稅的合理協議之外未來我們也會顧慮到是否有"},{"start":1745.365,"end":1749.174,"text":"中國的貨品低價反傾向台灣造成我們國內各項的問題以及"},{"start":1752.05,"end":1776.797,"text":"經過台灣違規轉運到美國到世界各地去讓我們在國際貿易的信任度上被打折這個也是目前我們在做的我相信這個在您提出的包括經濟軍事外交三方面要來就國家安全的考量這個方向跟現在政府的走向是一樣的容許未來有更多的機會向委員再來一一的請教在這幾個當中關於我們的"},{"start":1777.222,"end":1787.357,"text":"全體性的 全國性的 甚至全球性的戰略思考跟戰略的構成我們希望跟委員 我再能夠有機會再向委員來請教"},{"start":1788.779,"end":1811.423,"text":"最後我再跟您提出一個建議就是當國防預算在增加的過程中不只是向美方採購重要的軍事裝備或者是國內培養我們國防產業的基礎另外一個就是人才的培養我們軍事教育的經費要增加特別謝謝謝謝委員我們大家共同努力謝謝"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":822,"blocks":[["陳委員永康：（14時31分）主席，有請卓院長。"],["主席：請卓院長備詢。"],["卓院長榮泰：陳委員好。"],["陳委員永康：卓院長，你好。從4月2號面對美國川普總統的對等關稅政策跟挑戰，我想全世界的國家都承受了很大的壓力，雖然在4月9號他又宣布延後90天實施，但是90天以後，我們面對的挑戰目前是做預應還是分工，未來有關全球貿易的部分，到底是分裂還是美國所謂的競合，我想國內所有部會首長都在這邊窮盡功夫，大家希望能夠在維護國家利益為前提下找到一個比較好的解套方案。"],["卓院長榮泰：是。"],["陳委員永康：這個議題我先擱置，我先從俄烏戰爭進入今天的質詢，因為川普總統曾說過，他上任後很快就會把俄烏戰爭解決，但是最近他面臨到的挑戰使他有一種想法，甚至說他可以脫手不管了，因此這所產生的問題給了我們一個教訓。","我們可以看到，烏克蘭是一個領土廣大的國家，而臺灣是一個海洋海島國家，烏克蘭是靠陸上交通線，臺灣是靠海上交通線，情況、狀況都不一樣。","俄烏戰爭打到今天已經1,152天了，實際上在戰爭開始的頭6個月，烏克蘭的難民跑到歐洲國家的人數已經超過1,100萬人，3年戰爭下來，雖然有幾百萬人回去，但目前還有600萬人散落在歐洲各地。這種情況對臺灣面對未來兩岸如果有衝突時的挑戰，我們除了要照顧國人的安全，另外一個就是在臺灣有很多的外籍居民，不只是從事事業、投資、教學，也有很多友好邦交的labor force，我想外交部也了解，這個加起來將近90萬人，在這種情況下必須要掌握預應時間，讓友好國家跟我們有很好的溝通管道，在兩岸情勢升級緊張到某種程度的情況下，我們跟這些友好國家要分擔責任，我們要照顧我們的國民，也要照顧其他國家在臺灣工作的同仁。","從螢幕上這張圖可以看到，烏克蘭跟臺灣的面積比例是16.7比1，人口比例是1.9比1，約4,300萬對2,300萬，但是密度比是1比8.7，也就是臺灣人口密度非常高，如果起衝突了，我們是希望能夠產生嚇阻、避免戰爭，但是如果發生了中共犯臺的情況，我們要保護我們國土的城鎮戰，跟烏克蘭的狀況將是不一樣的。另外一個值得我們關注的就是人均耗電比，我們的面積這麼小，可是我們的耗電是烏克蘭的3.4倍，在這個情況下，讓我們知道電力的供應跟電力的傳輸是我們關鍵基礎設施第一優先的考量。所以我們需要有一個所謂的共同圖像，這個圖像是可以跨部會使用的，當我們談烏克蘭的時候，我們了解臺灣的大小，也可以看到烏東戰場目前它的面積已經可以含括兩個臺灣了，所以這個範例並不適合拿來比照今天的烏克蘭就是明天的臺灣，因為這個案例不同。","烏東的戰場因為有美國的星鏈技術，所以前線的士兵、戰士跟家人通訊是手機可以通，在烏東地區都是靠星鏈提供通訊。因為我們臺灣是岸上固定站台或者是wifi，如果戰時衝突導致中斷的話，雖然我們跟OneWeb衛星公司簽了約，但是通訊頻道的數量及頻寬還是有限的，這個部分我們希望將來能持續努力，也要加強我們的韌性。"],["卓院長榮泰：是。"],["陳委員永康：所以在烏克蘭戰場雖然看到許多無人機的運用，幾千架、上萬架的使用，這種消耗型的無人機是因為有Starlink提供鏈路所以可以使用，但是這個case在臺灣並不會具有同樣的功能。因此我們政府未來如果要跟Starlink做溝通的話，因為馬斯克是說他要百分之百的掌握權，我們政府當初是希望50、50，在這個溝通過程中，如果川普政府還是支持區域安全、重視亞太和平，我覺得這是一個溝通的管道，除了現有英國的OneWeb以外，我們還要強化其他的鏈路，這個就是我們的社會韌性。","至於加薩走廊戰場給我們一個慘痛教訓，也就是說，當你失去電力供應、失去醫藥、失去了食水及糧食，在這種情況下，社會結構的脆弱性就出來了。","螢幕上這張圖表顯示從2022年2月24號俄國開始侵略烏克蘭或進犯烏克蘭，在2個月之內，俄國、烏克蘭、美國、歐盟，甚至聯合國的重大措施、政策實施都顯示在這裏面，但我們發現戰爭開始的頭2個月中間有3次可以進行停火協議，但是都沒有達成目標，當然每個國家的政治目標跟軍事手段有不同的搭配方法，可是如果以當時的現象來看今天，如果能達成停火協議，當時俄羅斯是希望頓內茨克、盧甘斯克這兩個自治州變成獨立國，但是今天變成4個州被占領了，加上克里米亞就5個地區。如果當時能夠具有魄力，表示不加入北約，加入歐盟，大家支持，那麼以烏東的戰場來說，如果做一個客觀、嚴肅的討論，這3年的仗除了讓一個世代年輕人的教育、人口、社會設施全部毀掉以外，戰爭的兩方沒有一個是贏家。所以我們希望能夠掌握這種狀況，看到關鍵節點的時候，要提供重要的分析因素。這個方法論實際上是結合了所謂人工智慧的資料庫，所以對於每一個戰場的情境我們都可以回溯，將來可以檢討在哪個關鍵節點當時錯失了機會，但是別人付出的教訓，我們不要付第2次學費。","接下來這張是當時4月24號模擬情境的戰場情形，你可以看到上面的動態顯示，實際上從4月份以後整個戰場就沒有擴大縮小，除了去年9月烏東打了一塊小的地方庫斯克，但現在俄國又幾乎拿回去了，所以現在的談判可能要回到2015年2月15號明斯克2號條款，可是因為雙方在這13條裡面都背負了沒有恪守條款的職責，當然最後是俄羅斯撕毀條款。回過頭我們來想，當年二戰勝利，我們光復臺灣是因為1895年4月17號的馬關條約，當時簽訂的馬關條約並不是單獨割讓臺澎，還包括遼東半島，但是因為當年的俄國、德國、法國要享有原來的租借地，他們不讓步，因此清廷又增加了3,000萬兩白銀給日本，至於其他的條款我就不提。因此，今天如果俄羅斯跟烏克蘭要重新談判停戰協定以及簽和平條約的話，他要回到明斯克2號條款一共13條，我建議外交部同仁去了解一下明斯克條款裡面的細節，因為所有的東西是回到上一次，不管這個條約接受或者撕毀，可是它的precondition、它的前提就是現在要回復談判的一個要求。這個就是明斯克條約的13條，我想這個可做為參考。","川普總統就任以來，他在這一年的任期內一定會向國會提出他的國家安全戰略報告，在國家安全戰略下面，美國的國防部有國防戰略，在國防戰略下，還有軍事戰略、印太戰略，還有他的各種情報戰略，因此，他是四個面向，比方講他的軍事實力要備便；他的外交立場要做預防；他對市場經濟要追求藍海策略；最重要的一條是美國現在專注法規專利，他們很會修法保護，所以這四個P實際上是國家安全戰略裡面一個共同的支撐。","我們現在希望執政的政府在這個任期內提出我們的國家安全戰略，透過這個戰略架構讓我們各個部會，除了在政策上從上到下有明確的政策指導，更要注重水平的跨部會協調，因為對應每一個不同的情境，各部會的分工跟承擔的責任並非按比例，這一點我提醒大家要注意。","前兩天美國國會的特別助理團，就是國會對中共的小組團也到我們立法院來訪問，他們也關切到這個問題，所以你可以看到，不管是美國的國務院、美國的國防部、美國的CIA還有國會，都有一個對中共政策的研究小組，可是他們的資訊是分享的。你可以看到川普就任以後，他會訂定他的核心目標、國家利益、實力元素、戰略要素、兵力規模，甚至於區域性的解決方案，他承擔多少責任要付多少錢，這個錢有可能是要現在的友好國家共同分擔的。所以他的戰略指導從上到下明確，他的實力從下到上要做支撐，這個給我們一個參考的構想。","比照美國的作為，我們要學習的一個經驗是，國家安全戰略、國防戰略、軍事戰略以及各地區的作戰戰略是有重疊性的，也就是說有明確的指導。目前我們政府並沒有官方版的國家安全戰略，雖然我們公布了四年期國防總檢討，但是美國在2017年就把它取消掉了，就是因為從上到下跟從下到上的支撐不能同調，所以就改成兩年一版的國防戰略，因此我們在國防法內將來可以提出跨黨協商來修改國防法的要求。","因為我們只有QDR（國防總檢討），雖然是四年期總檢討，但是是前瞻，我們並沒有回顧這個四年跟過去四年（就是上一個版本）中間有哪些落差，或是哪些還力有所未逮，我們要努力來做。接著我們政府在今年又要出版國防戰略，這個QDR從上一個版本的48頁進步到現在的63頁，內容增加了一些，原來國防戰略跟軍事戰略是佔一頁半，現在成長到4頁，我們也肯定，但是跟鄰近國家比，內容還不足，我們希望在這個國防白皮書出來以後能夠看得到有所精進。","國家安全的各個領域，包括社會堅韌、臺海和平、民心安定、經濟繁榮、軍事堅強，這裡面不同的面向有不同的直接督導長官，有總統的、有院長的、有外交國防的、有陸委的、有海委的、有國安會的。現在總統成立了3個特別委員會，我們是肯定這3個特別委員會，雖然是跨部會的協商，還有一些民間專業人士參與，可是專業人士參與所提出的建言或建議要反映到部會去，變成這並不是成比例的分工、擔責，而是這些要做的事要併到下一年的國防預算裡面才能夠付錢，雖然現在誠意很高，但是目前只是做出建言。","我們用這個來顯示一點，為什麼需要一個結構性的支撐？現在我們都在講，人工智慧的基礎國內已經廣泛在運用，政府機構在用，但是顯然這個運用的方法還不能夠短期達標，就是有關於我們所謂的關鍵基礎設施跟全社會韌性的互動關係，並不是只是排列它的順序，哪一個優先、哪個第二，因此我們在這邊可以看出來，這是利用人工智慧、根據我們的關鍵因素排出了不同的互動關係，這個互動關係是根據國際情勢、國內社會的韌性，以及如何強化、要投資、什麼時間可以達成，所以它是一個互動的關聯性。這邊看得到最關鍵性的東西就是電網、電力分配、網路設施、資安、能源的進口、社會結構還有醫療體系，另外就是金融體系，我們千萬不能因為遭到斷電或是海纜斷電，外匯存底不能運用，金融會受極大的影響，因此這個結構圖可以提供院內同仁做個參考，這不只是看到表象的第一層，甚至向下還可以延伸到第三層，這種情況下可以加快我們韌性結構強度的推展。","這張圖是從川普總統第45任到拜登總統46任，到現在他回來的第47任，美國作為一個強權影響整個勢局，他可以運用所謂的地緣戰略、地緣政治、地緣經濟，而他的組合運用在這個虛線圈圈裡面涵蓋了20個選項。至於他排出15個骯髒國、他認為貿易不均等，那是他的方法，至於他的手段，這裡面就產生一個施壓作為的不定性跟反覆無常。對美國來講他看到利，可是弊可能是周遭國家要承擔，因此我們要有我們的方法論去面對這個，而不是等他出招，我們做反應。雖然我們現在在您這邊召集的會議下，對於880億後面會有很多深入的看法，但是只是對於關稅，而對於外匯存底、美債、匯率、黃金儲存，我們內部當然跨部會要有一個更深入的協商。","再來，這是一個方法論，我們來解看，川普總統的目的是美國利益優先、美國再次偉大，那他的方法是什麼呢？他採用了新霸權主義、新重商主義、新孤立主義以及新工業主義，目的、方法還有手段，他的手段非常厲害：雙重標準、兩手策略、左右換利、內外折衷。因此對於這個外面4個軸向，我們再去看，我們對事情判斷通常有8個不同的面向，就是主觀的、客觀的、宏觀的、微觀的、樂觀的、悲觀的、前瞻的、反思的，對這個不同的面向組合再去參考中國大陸的聚焦跟美國的聚焦，我們在中間選擇什麼樣的選項，這裡面沒有最佳方案，只是一個除錯方案，提供你選項中間有哪些是不理想的，你可以把它汰除。雖然這個很多是結合了西方的兵學思想跟我們的孫子兵法，概念上有8種組合、8種不同的面向，就是64種！甚至再有交錯組合，我們甚至可以產生512個選項，但不是選項來支持你哪個好，而是在選項過程中把不確定因素、對我們不利的先汰除，就是說，犯錯的機會比較少，這個方法論是未來我想提供給我們的智庫或者是學研單位做成一個政策建言，提供我們政府做一個參考。","這個就是這次美中競合，外交部用的字是競合，是講美國有競爭跟合作，competition、cooperation叫做coopetition，但是也可能是美中斷鏈脫鉤、解構，這種情況下他選了這5個國家，我剛剛講了，包括英國、澳洲、印度、日本、韓國，這5個國家如何在中間博弈它的理論，這是一種方法論，我覺得我們智庫可以做。同樣這5個國家他們自己彼此之間私下怎麼協商，因為他們有的還是參與一帶一路，所以中國大陸也在帶風向，這個情況下，我們對自己的角色、定位以及調節的空間有多少，我覺得要有一點方法論，而不是用單面的論述。","這個我也是希望提供貴院以及政府部門參考，我們需要一個國家安全戰略，裡面產生國內環境的影響還有國際環境的衝突，左右各列了12項，它的目的是最後能夠做風險評估，對於聚焦在兩岸情勢、外交政策、國防政策、經濟政策、能源政策、資安政策、人口政策、社會的韌性，做一個客觀的分析，最後產生的國家安全戰略是什麼呢？是促進繁榮、社會和諧、維護主權、保護民主、和平避戰、強化安全，這個是我們國家安全戰略的目標。根據賴總統的17條，我們發現這17條裡面也不是同樣的百分比例聚焦在哪一點上，我們看到這點，當然我們未來還有努力精進的空間，就是一直強調國家安全戰略不只是從上到下垂直的政策指導，還有一個就是水平的跨部會協商，承擔不同的任務責任，但是並不是相同的百分比，這個有一個戰略的框架指導，會對我們未來施政上有更好的幫助。","最後這一張圖我們可以看到，美國開啟了全球貿易制裁，與中共嘴巴上樂意是講競合，至於會不會斷鏈脫鉤，目前還看不出來，我覺得他永遠保留一個手法就是他有一個妥協折衷、底線，但他不會明講。那我們的外交經貿戰略因應，我們用這個例子，就是台積電這一次我們看出來了，它完全反映出把地緣經濟、地緣政治、地緣戰略串接成一個整體，在這個裡面的供應鏈是相互供應鏈，如果在這個時候把台積電的功能去掉，人人都是輸家！所以我相信我們堅持台積電在國內的持續發展、在國外投資，但是因為互為供應鏈，就是相互依託，誰都不能少誰。所以看得到地緣經濟考慮的人口位置、貿易源頭、產業鏈路、地緣戰略、軍事布局、威懾嚇阻、維護利益、地緣政治，這個講白了就是我們講的國家利益優先，合縱連橫。第二個，我們看到這些大國強權一定是雙標、雙軌，double standard、dual strategy，這個沒有說是從頭到尾一貫一致的。因此在這種情況下，我們需要有一個國家安全戰略，我們的戰略目標是牽動鄰國的利益、營造區域的平衡、鞏固貿易源頭、強化產業的鏈路、確保多元生存的縫隙，這樣子有利於我們的外交布局，精進軍事能量，運用以小牽大、虛實聯動、奇正相生的合縱連橫。","最後一個，我們常常講我們跟很多友好國家是同路人，但是我查了一些別的資料，同路未必同道，同道不同德，同德不同心，同心不同仁，同仁不同調，好朋友裡面的分寸捏拿之間，也不見得完全是cohering同調的。","我想今天的問政，以上的題目請院長做一個參考，我們在質詢過程中也是代表人民監督，在另一個角色上其實是互動學習，我看到臺上有過去很多的工作同仁，只是因為今天角色換過來了，我站在這邊也可以想到，當年我站在對面的時候也被質詢過，所以我們講這是互動學習，我特別請院長給我們一些指教。"],["卓院長榮泰：非常感謝委員，每次聆聽委員的高見，我真的是獲益良多，更深深感受委員在準備這麼豐富、詳盡而且是非常難得的資料，這當中的用心，尤其您剛剛就總統在國安高層會議的17項對照裡面，關於人口對策、人工智慧、醫療、交通、金融體系沒有在17項當中，也許之後都會在其他來彌補，我想這是國家整個一體。","這段時間，我們也做了多項城市韌性以及全社會韌性的相關演習，我們從演習跟演練當中，期待能夠再發現一些不足之處，可以做更有效率的補充，尤其是委員一直強調國家安全戰略，國家的確需要一個安全的戰略，針對安全戰略，委員當然是非常地專業，你我應該共同認知到，這個安全戰略是在憲法架構下，以總統統帥權為主衍生到各部會，我們從資訊的蒐集到最後的執行面，都是在憲法的架構、總統的統帥權這樣完整底下去做的安全架構，這個倒是非常感謝委員能夠來提醒。","我一再也強調說，我們跟美國在這一次的關稅爭議談判當中，一直以國內的產業支持為優先出發；再來就是我們從過去到現在備妥的方案，希望能夠儘速在最佳時間跟美方進行談判；談判過程再以爭取國家最大的利益、維護產業國際競爭力、讓國人能夠安心三項原則來進行。跟委員報告，這個工作到目前的進行，我們仍然是在最優先行列的國家當中，已經在4月11號有第一次的視訊會議，現在雙方就視訊會議的內容再做更多詳實的精進，期待在最近的時間內，很快地有一個更好的共通來處理雙方經貿產生的問題。","然而在國際經貿局勢大變的時候，臺灣應該累積國家的能量跟各國，尤其包括跟美國，我們採取更公平、穩定的貿易關係，這絕對有利於我們未來在科技產業供應鏈上發揮繼續領先地位。","以上這幾項，都是總統在歷次會議當中明確的指示，行政院現在針對17項因應措施後續的一些立法、修法、工程計畫還有設置計畫的整體結構都已經在著手進行，在適當的時機我們就會拿出來討論。","我也始終認為臺灣不能有戰後英雄，臺灣要有一個能夠帶領臺灣走向和平的國家領導人，我想賴總統也是秉持這樣的自我責任感，所以他提出我們對國防安全、國防預算能夠在財政的許可之下，基於我們自己國防之所需，對於設備的新購我們可以達到GDP 3%的目標，那麼今年我們嘗試要往這個目標來邁進，當然這是國家整體財政結構的問題。","在委員提到的多項過程當中，總統也在日前有講過，我再替他來做一些說明，從過去的西進、到南向、到東拓，其實現在我們講究的是北合，希望能夠同步的發生、同步建立好的關係，當然我們會有除錯的選擇，但是我們認為全世界四海之內都可以成為兄弟，所以現在立足臺灣、到布局全球、到行銷全世界，我們只是在中間加了一個加強美國，這是為產業而做的，希望產業不要因為關稅問題，喪失了自己的國際競爭力，或者就國內市場也變成物價開始上漲起來，所以加強美國、到美國投資、到美國採購，這都是政府的政策。在這同時，我們除了希望雙邊能夠基於共同利益，得到一個對關稅的合理協議之外，未來也會顧慮到是否有中國的貨品低價反傾銷臺灣，造成國內各項的問題，以及經過臺灣違規轉運到美國、到世界各地去，讓我們在國際貿易的信任度上被打折，這也是我們目前在做的。","我相信在您提出的，包括經濟、軍事、外交三方面，就國家安全的考量方向，跟現在政府的走向是一樣的，容許未來有更多的機會再來向委員一一請教，在這幾項當中關於我們全體性、全國性，甚至全球性的戰略思考跟戰略的構成，希望能夠有機會再向委員請教。"],["陳委員永康：最後，我再跟您提出一個建議，當國防預算在增加的過程中，不只是向美方採購重要的軍事裝備，或者是國內培養國防產業的基礎，另外就是人才的培養，軍事教育的經費要增加。"],["卓院長榮泰：都會列進去。"],["陳委員永康：特別謝謝。"],["卓院長榮泰：謝謝。"],["陳委員永康：謝謝院長，大家共同努力，謝謝。"],["卓院長榮泰：謝謝、謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝陳委員，謝謝卓院長。","下一位林俊憲委員之質詢以書面提出，請行政院書面答復，並列入紀錄，刊登公報。"],["委員林俊憲書面質詢：","案由：本院委員林俊憲，鑒於國家遭中共滲透情形不容小覷，相關因應機制應有所檢討，爰要求國防部及國家安全局於一個月內，針對下列二議題提出書面報告，特向行政院提出質詢。","說明：","一、查近年共諜案遭起訴人數增加，2022年10件、2023年48件、2024年64件，其中去年遭起訴者28人為現役軍人、有15人為退役軍人，分別占比43%、23%，顯見我國軍人遭中國滲透情形嚴重。因此，總統表示將恢復軍事審判制度，以加強軍紀、維護我國國防安全。惟考量我國軍事審判自2013年起限縮於戰時使用，已逾十年未實施，原有軍法人員恐無相關實際審判經驗，《軍事審判法》修正後，前例亦恐無可資參酌，雖承平時期國防部借調軍法官擔任檢察事務官，以維持實務經驗，但一般司法案件仍與軍法案件大相逕庭，人員訓練該如何銜接？","二、此外，若涉及國防機密之案件，依《軍事審判法》第79條規定「辯護人於審判中得檢閱卷宗及證物，並得抄錄或攝影。但於國防機密有關之案件，得限制攝影。」雖本條對國防機密之案件閱卷有所限制，惟仍應加強監督對律師及得以接觸文件者之保密義務，參酌美國律師若涉及國家機密案件，其需先通過聯邦政府機關之安全審查、安全背景調查，並規定其可調閱資料之權限。爰建議軍事審判恢復後，精進相關保密義務之作法，避免再有相關人員遭滲透。","三、除恢復軍審制，因應中共滲透方式多變、觸及人員廣泛，如近日遭揭露之國會助理、政務官隨行人員、總統府維安人員等，更有地方村里長接受落地招待，遊走灰色地帶。查《涉及國家安全或重大利益公務人員特殊查核辦法》僅由各行政機關針對擬任公務人員查核或請法務部辦理特殊查核，另有《國家情報工作人員安全查核辦法》針對國安人員查核，惟前者僅限正面表列之職務，且僅為擬任前查核，對於涉及範圍、查核頻率，更甚者，是否依接觸機密程度區分查核頻率，應有檢討之空間，故國安局身為我國最高安全機構，應協助檢視整體國安機制，確保國家整體安全無虞。","四、爰此，請國防部針對前揭軍審制度修正之人員培訓、防杜洩漏國家機密之作為；國安局針對如何精進政府機關相關人員之安全查核提供建議作為，提出書面報告。"],["主席：下一位請徐巧芯委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":324,"meet_id":"院會-11-3-8","speakers":["韓國瑜","江啟臣","林國成","麥玉珍","翁曉玲","林宜瑾","盧縣一","林月琴","高金素梅","李坤城","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","劉書彬","陳永康","林俊憲","徐巧芯"],"page_start":267,"meetingDate":["2025-04-22"],"gazette_id":"1143701","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1143701_00006"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期第8次會議紀錄","content":"施政質詢\n對行政院院長提出施政方針及施政報告繼續質詢─ 繼續質詢─","agenda_id":"1143701_00012"}}}