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{\"word\": \"馬\"}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 47.446, \"end\": 47.666, \"score\": 0.963}, {\"word\": \"又\", \"start\": 47.666, \"end\": 47.947, \"score\": 0.995}, {\"word\": \"接\", \"start\": 47.947, \"end\": 48.267, \"score\": 0.949}, {\"word\": \"著\", \"start\": 48.267, \"end\": 49.187, \"score\": 0.955}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 49.187, \"end\": 51.149, \"score\": 0.964}, {\"word\": \"農\"}, {\"word\": \"曆\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 51.149, \"end\": 52.11, \"score\": 0.916}, {\"word\": \"過\"}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 52.11, \"end\": 52.93, \"score\": 0.913}, {\"word\": \"所\", \"start\": 52.93, \"end\": 53.01, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 53.01, \"end\": 53.25, \"score\": 0.747}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"事\", \"start\": 53.25, \"end\": 53.39, \"score\": 0.843}, {\"word\": \"情\", \"start\": 53.39, \"end\": 53.571, \"score\": 0.943}, {\"word\": \"其\", \"start\": 53.571, \"end\": 53.811, \"score\": 0.849}, {\"word\": \"實\"}, {\"word\": \"有\", 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\"孩\", \"start\": 63.117, \"end\": 63.298, \"score\": 0.893}, {\"word\": \"子\", \"start\": 63.298, \"end\": 63.618, \"score\": 0.878}, {\"word\": \"學\", \"start\": 63.618, \"end\": 63.718, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"習\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 63.718, \"end\": 64.158, \"score\": 0.902}, {\"word\": \"連\"}, {\"word\": \"貫\"}, {\"word\": \"性\", \"start\": 64.158, \"end\": 64.318, \"score\": 0.824}, {\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 64.318, \"end\": 64.478, \"score\": 0.994}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 64.478, \"end\": 64.578, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 64.578, \"end\": 65.759, \"score\": 0.889}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"問\"}, {\"word\": \"題\"}, {\"word\": \"更\", \"start\": 65.759, \"end\": 65.959, \"score\": 0.965}, {\"word\": \"不\", \"start\": 65.959, \"end\": 66.06, \"score\": 0.901}, {\"word\": \"要\", \"start\": 66.06, \"end\": 66.76, \"score\": 0.99}, {\"word\": \"忘\", \"start\": 66.76, \"end\": 67.18, \"score\": 0.92}, {\"word\": \"記\"}, {\"word\": \"冬\", \"start\": 67.18, \"end\": 67.401, \"score\": 0.953}, {\"word\": \"季\", \"start\": 67.401, \"end\": 67.681, \"score\": 0.874}, {\"word\": \"還\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 67.681, \"end\": 67.961, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"流\", \"start\": 67.961, \"end\": 68.221, \"score\": 0.927}, {\"word\": \"感\", \"start\": 68.221, \"end\": 68.401, \"score\": 0.994}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 68.401, \"end\": 68.541, \"score\": 0.989}, {\"word\": \"流\", \"start\": 68.541, \"end\": 68.721, \"score\": 0.987}, {\"word\": \"行\", \"start\": 68.721, \"end\": 68.962, \"score\": 0.962}, {\"word\": \"季\", \"start\": 68.962, \"end\": 68.982, \"score\": 0.003}]}, {\"start\": 69.542, \"end\": 97.582, \"text\": \"那很多公衛的學者有說盡量不要大規模的人流移動也可能造成醫療體系的負荷所以希望院長您看到這個狀況是不是可以體諒跟理解家長老師和這個醫療體系他們相關的擔憂是不是這個部分因為休假部分行政部門應該就可以去修改這個相關的規則可不可以請院長在這部分體諒一下學生和這些家長們相關的擔憂\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 69.542, \"end\": 69.682, \"score\": 0.962}, {\"word\": \"很\", \"start\": 69.682, \"end\": 69.802, 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{\"word\": \"關\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 97.562, \"end\": 97.582, \"score\": 0.001}, {\"word\": \"擔\"}, {\"word\": \"憂\"}]}, {\"start\": 99.407, \"end\": 122.844, \"text\": \"確實因為明年這個春節的時間的提前所以變成說當有一天這個未來補假的問題會產生問題228好像這一天我如果沒有記錯的話228這一天如果補假會變成沒有放假又變成補假所以院長我是希望說 重點在大年初四這一天對我是希望說您這個這個部分是不是可以去調整有非常多的家長在反映我們現在這個\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"確\"}, {\"word\": \"實\"}, {\"word\": \"因\", \"start\": 99.407, \"end\": 99.707, \"score\": 0.932}, {\"word\": \"為\"}, {\"word\": \"明\", \"start\": 99.707, \"end\": 99.928, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 99.928, \"end\": 100.588, \"score\": 0.939}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"春\", \"start\": 100.588, \"end\": 101.068, \"score\": 0.945}, {\"word\": \"節\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 101.068, \"end\": 101.729, \"score\": 0.935}, {\"word\": \"時\"}, {\"word\": \"間\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 101.729, \"end\": 102.59, \"score\": 0.996}, {\"word\": \"提\", \"start\": 102.59, \"end\": 102.79, \"score\": 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{\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"現\"}, {\"word\": \"在\", \"start\": 944.651, \"end\": 944.831, \"score\": 0.785}, {\"word\": \"休\", \"start\": 944.831, \"end\": 944.972, \"score\": 0.986}, {\"word\": \"息\", \"start\": 944.972, \"end\": 945.092, \"score\": 0.941}, {\"word\": \"五\", \"start\": 945.092, \"end\": 945.192, \"score\": 0.968}, {\"word\": \"分\", \"start\": 945.192, \"end\": 945.212, \"score\": 0.925}, {\"word\": \"鐘\"}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:13,386 --> 00:00:17,487\n謝謝主席有請我們卓院長麻煩再請卓院長備詢廖委員好院長好院長辛苦了院長第一題我想要請問一下有關明年度各級的學校寒假跟農曆春假中間有三天你可以看一下簡報上面\n\n2\n00:00:43,223 --> 00:01:08,982\n還有2月11號到2月13號這個空窗期然後馬上又接著是農曆的過年所以這事情其實有很多的家長抱怨大家都覺得學校這樣子的放假安排是很荒謬行程的規劃會大亂然後返鄉的車票也不好買最重要是孩子學習的連貫性也是一個問題更不要忘記冬季還是流感的流行季\n\n3\n00:01:09,542 --> 00:01:37,582\n那很多公衛的學者有說盡量不要大規模的人流移動也可能造成醫療體系的負荷所以希望院長您看到這個狀況是不是可以體諒跟理解家長老師和這個醫療體系他們相關的擔憂是不是這個部分因為休假部分行政部門應該就可以去修改這個相關的規則可不可以請院長在這部分體諒一下學生和這些家長們相關的擔憂\n\n4\n00:01:39,407 --> 00:02:02,844\n確實因為明年這個春節的時間的提前所以變成說當有一天這個未來補假的問題會產生問題228好像這一天我如果沒有記錯的話228這一天如果補假會變成沒有放假又變成補假所以院長我是希望說重點在大年初四這一天對我是希望說您這個這個部分是不是可以去調整有非常多的家長在反映我們現在這個\n\n5\n00:02:04,766 --> 00:02:30,302\n過春節連假的當中這一天我們有在注意到這三天有空窗期啊再請院長是不是回去研議一下看怎麼把它調整不然連貫在一起這個要跟教育單位去各個提醒謝謝米倫的提醒好不好那院長再來我想要請教一下你你有沒有看過這個美國白宮的經濟顧問委員會的主席米倫在入閣前他有提出的報告中的一項計畫左邊這邊\n\n6\n00:02:34,039 --> 00:02:54,510\n他其實就是現在的海湖莊園協議那他提到關稅作為談判工具那他的目的是要逼迫其他國家升值他們的匯率並購買美國國債最終讓美元大幅貶值那這份計畫就是所謂的海湖莊園協議那他裡面也提到經過一連串的這個關稅懲罰性關稅之後貿易夥伴\n\n7\n00:03:01,174 --> 00:03:19,481\n更容易接受某種形式的貨幣協議來換取降低關稅那麼現在其實很多人也是幾乎所有的財經學者都在說這個海湖狀元協議其實就是廣場協議2.0的版本那這個海湖狀元協議裡面還有一個核心理念院長\n\n8\n00:03:20,726 --> 00:03:28,777\n請聽一下就是美國提供軍事保護那貿易夥伴需要付出的代價包含配合美國讓貨幣升值以換取\n\n9\n00:03:31,893 --> 00:03:55,463\n這個美元貶值然後購買低利率的超長期美國國債來減輕美國的債務壓力那其實這聽起來是很瘋狂可是其實他很符合川普覺得盟友應該為美國軍事保護買單他不喜歡美元太強的這個概念那根據上面的內容以及相關的報導其實台灣可以說對美國來講是一個\n\n10\n00:03:57,805 --> 00:04:11,000\n這個有關商周也說,這叫做夢幻客戶那有幾個條件台灣都滿足第一個,我們高度仰賴美國市場第二個,需要美國的保護第三個,也深怕我們美國視為我們是匯率操縱國\n\n11\n00:04:13,283 --> 00:04:37,373\n所以也是被認為說我們是很快迅速在這個慘判中會妥協的那院長在這部分也很巧在五月一號行政院五月一號的時候稱台美完成首輪磋商那隔天五月二號匯率就大升值所以因此根據前面所說我想大家最想問的就是究竟我們是否在這個匯率上面跟美國有達成某種協議嗎\n\n12\n00:04:40,492 --> 00:05:03,071\n5月1號的這個由副院長領軍的談判團跟美方的協議談判過程當中我再次重調沒有涉及任何的關稅問題是好我知道對不起匯率問題我有看你們這兩天的說法其實基本上您跟楊建宗總裁還有賴清德總統都說是沒有涉及到匯率可是我從上述的幾個論證幾個事件\n\n13\n00:05:05,993 --> 00:05:26,082\n告訴你其實很難讓民眾相信但因為這麼巧就在這個時候台幣的匯率暴升不過我就想追問那請問目前你們說沒有但未來是否會將匯率跟這個超長期的低利率美國國債當成談判籌碼之一以換取低關稅以及美國提供的軍事保護\n\n14\n00:05:27,179 --> 00:05:51,645\n目前談判的內容當然我們不便對外說但是我們有說明的現在談判的內容就是在對等關稅、非關稅貿易障礙、出國管制、經濟安全等等那也就是說您不排除把這兩項當成是未來的籌碼之一這個說法我早上說過不能這麼武斷的說排除不排除還沒有發生的事情還沒發生就是不排除啦其實院長應該就是這樣啦關稅跟非關稅\n\n15\n00:05:55,227 --> 00:06:00,661\n貿易障礙還有出國管制另外還有經濟安全來做討論院長我要提醒你啦就是說\n\n16\n00:06:01,997 --> 00:06:24,352\n你剛剛這句話其實就是在算是避重就重你不能這樣解讀我絕對沒有這樣的意思其實簡單來講你是說不能排除好沒關係我想要跟院長說的是在1985年的廣場協議之後其實可以看到日本的下場就是失落了30年不管是經濟房地產或者是產業外移所以其實有這次的前車之鑒你可以看到\n\n17\n00:06:25,313 --> 00:06:46,166\n跟美日談判的時候日本首相是強硬的表示不會為了協議犧牲日本的利益那我這裡要再請院長因為你剛剛還是沒有辦法講清楚嘛那我還是說希望站在國家利益不要一味的妥協不要短視應該為了我們國家的利益長遠的利益來著想不要讓這個海湖狀元協議變成台灣的廣場協議2.0好嗎\n\n18\n00:06:49,893 --> 00:07:05,126\n這個總統在聲明當中已經說過了他會爭取國家的利益他也不會放過任何一個產業但是院長我跟你講這前後這樣子講起來其實以上不管執政團隊有沒有談或者是有沒有把它未來變成是一個籌碼之一\n\n19\n00:07:06,508 --> 00:07:27,649\n議員我們在這裡要對國人做一個正面的宣示就是談判的過程沒有匯率院長您先聽我講完吧好我現在沒有在講這個我現在告訴你說不管到底有沒有相不相信這個你們講你們覺得我也都相信你們講的話但是現在的重點事實擺在眼前的是還沒變成籌碼之一我們台幣就已經迅速的升值\n\n20\n00:07:28,750 --> 00:07:35,643\n已經迅速的升值所以我想要請教院長在台幣迅速升值跟關稅的雙夾擊之下這樣對於我國出口產業的短期衝擊和長期衝擊是什麼請教院長\n\n21\n00:07:42,162 --> 00:07:59,198\n最近一周以來台幣的強勁的升值當然對我們的產業造成相當大的衝擊那我們現在包括央行也從過去穩定貨幣的相關政策之下我們持續的加強各種觀察院長你曉得短期衝擊是什麼嗎您可以舉幾個例子嗎\n\n22\n00:08:00,279 --> 00:08:12,898\n我說的是這個禮拜以來啦上個禮拜到現在我會說針對匯率急速升值這件事情照理說應該已經要去評估了吧好沒關係院長你如果沒有辦法條列式的講出來我跟你講有幾個衝擊第一個\n\n23\n00:08:15,402 --> 00:08:44,662\n然後利率跟獲利縮水這個很嚴重部分的代工業和製造業他一夕就是轉成本來比如說5%好了他迅速拉升了10%他就虧錢了這個單就虧錢了甚至我們地方上有產業界的龍頭說他一年出口已經被下訂了5000個貨櫃就迅速升值可能會虧爆已經打到建股他本來還不是出口美國他本來是歐洲市場所以他連這個本來他本來沒有想到這麼嚴重\n\n24\n00:08:46,063 --> 00:09:14,361\n連匯率都變成這樣的情況之下他基本上是被打到見骨這是第一個所以跟我們的院長報告第一個短期的衝擊第二個是現金流跟他的財務壓力那第三個就是訂單的成本和採購延後第四個是避險的成本跟他們要操作的難度很拉高這些中小企業大企業可能還可以小企業就很辛苦還有另外同業的競爭力跟市場的地位這五個是短期衝擊\n\n25\n00:09:15,482 --> 00:09:34,223\n那再來長期衝擊長期這樣子維持我們的匯率往上走請問院長我要告訴你的是第一個長期的它的毛利跟獲利也會持續的壓縮再來我們國家出口量跟訂單會縮減再來就是我們生產的產地跟供應鏈要重組\n\n26\n00:09:36,468 --> 00:09:52,142\n所以再來最後一個是我們的產業的結構轉型的壓力所以我就想要我剛剛問的問題就是顯示出院長你們好像對於這個評估並沒有很詳細的評估啊這讓我們的中小企業很擔心我以為你這個\n\n27\n00:09:53,208 --> 00:10:08,917\n非常有學術專業但是我跟你們報告央行長期對匯率的掌握就是定期在做這樣的評估只是現在針對現在快速上漲的這幾個幾天以來央行昨天已經對外宣布了他的說法\n\n28\n00:10:10,489 --> 00:10:24,986\n那我再進一步問你那對於勞工的評估勞工權益的衝擊因為剛剛講是產業的部分那接下來最重要最關心的也就是我們的勞工我們產業支持不下去的時候失業勞工的狀況就可能會發生\n\n29\n00:10:26,047 --> 00:10:45,140\n所以我們其實現在很擔心這個我剛剛也苦口婆心的在問的就是看到目前為止行政院好像對於這個關稅之外對於這個匯率的雙重的夾擊並沒有去做一個很詳盡的評估剛剛已經說了這個是讓我們很擔心的央行長期以來定期在做這些評估你又說沒有評估這不對啊其實這個題目啊\n\n30\n00:10:47,521 --> 00:11:07,916\n上週二這個牛許廷委員也問了問你們有沒有做關稅以外有沒有做匯率衝擊的評估其實你們那時候回答就是沒有所以過了一個禮拜之後也是這樣我回答一樣啊央行定期都有來報告相關的內容昨天央行已經對外說了我們要點出嚴重性所以想要問你其實在我國現在美國市場簡單來講我們衝擊很大本來關稅是第一個衝擊\n\n31\n00:11:12,839 --> 00:11:25,525\n美國的衝擊再來就是匯率提升之外就是出口商等等的然後再來就是我們國人就業問題那還有一些所謂的這個上市公司鼓勵有一些股民的權益也可能會受到這個影響\n\n32\n00:11:26,775 --> 00:11:48,037\n所以其實我上次在質詢的時候也說這次4100億的這個預算裡面你們針對這個農工產業的補助是930億那其實我是認為遠遠不夠那對於勞犬的部分是150億所以這個部分我想要請這個院長剛剛講到衝擊評估的部分第一個是不是可以請院長盡速的\n\n33\n00:11:50,899 --> 00:12:14,190\n將這個有關於關稅以及匯率的雙重夾擊之下的不同情境可不可以有個比較這個嚴謹的評估報告可以調給本席包含譬如說1比30有沒有辦法維穩在1比30左右那如果調到1比28或是調到1比25會發生什麼事情受衝擊的產業規模跟人數勞工的人數這是我們現在關心的事情要拜託院長\n\n34\n00:12:15,169 --> 00:12:34,958\n另外外界也普遍認為新台幣的30元就是維持在1比30的部分是心理跟經濟的雙重關卡如果守不住的話也會恐怕不只是無薪假的問題也可能引發大規模的失業所以包含我們中部的關鍵產業工具機來講所以2024年的時候其實我們比2014年的工具機產業已經下滑65%\n\n35\n00:12:41,881 --> 00:13:08,678\n可是今年又遇到這樣子的匯率升值很可能會滅團很擔心會有大量的倒閉潮和滅團那張忠謀董事長曾經也說過新台幣如果對美元如果升值1%他們的營業利率就會減少0.4%甚至有一些評估就是關於上市櫃公司可能縮減的是7.5%其實我們要講的是這些詳細的數據這些是一些金融行業估出來的\n\n36\n00:13:09,744 --> 00:13:33,578\n所以我們其實最擔心的就是最終吳興跟柴源草的來臨那本席這邊希望因為過去你們上次是編930億那支持勞工150億可是你同時有拿了1500億來做所謂的任性但是其實我們在看的時候跟所謂的關稅跟我們的匯率跟民生的關聯不大那我這邊是覺得這1500億應該是不是歸回公務總預算裡面那應該把這1500億立即注入\n\n37\n00:13:39,341 --> 00:13:50,806\n跟這些勞工產業有關的急迫需求所以本席的具體建議包含我們勞工的部分因為勞工部長也上來嘛其實我很擔心的是這個那我們希望具體建議的是\n\n38\n00:13:52,506 --> 00:14:14,441\n我們希望勞工權益的部分在這4100立面的益利可以加高那包含著什麼包含著產業的部分的話就是金融支持因為現在已經不只是對美出口的基期的問題你上次說是10%基期的問題現在已經不只是這個部分是全部出口產業所以這部分也要滾動調整要請院長回去金融支持的部分要加大\n\n39\n00:14:14,901 --> 00:14:36,821\n第二個勞動的部分我們希望可以增加我們的勞工權益就是我們安心及時上工這個東西可以請我們的部長因為這個過去在疫情期間是有這樣子的支持那現在因為要還有一定的程序要走因為它不是常態性的所以這個部分是不是可以請院長和部長回去去盡速的研議\n\n40\n00:14:39,407 --> 00:15:00,684\n其實過去相關有的就業工具其實我們都已經盤點都已經做相關的準備了可是每一個工具要實施的時間點適合的時間點可能不同現在可能比較會先要先處理的事情是關於減班休息這個企業如果發生減班休息的話我們怎麼如何因應來支持勞工那剛剛廖委員說的安心及時上工我們其實也做了相關的盤點\n\n41\n00:15:01,585 --> 00:15:19,951\n可是這部分比較是要來創造比較多的公部門的就業的機會來容納失業的勞工那這個部分我們已經做相關的盤點了可是它的實施的時間點可能會跟請問你們現在盤點的時程跟這個規模有沒有反映到現在即將可能來臨的這是第一件事我們現在的工具都已經做了盤點了\n\n42\n00:15:20,911 --> 00:15:45,212\n現在是來看哪一個工具不同的適合的時間點我現在提出這兩個具體的要求請您回去研議這兩件事第二個是長年有的請你擴大它的人數和它的規模那再請你們提供一份報告給本席班好謝謝廖偉祥委員的資訊麻煩請行政院將廖偉祥委員所取的資料交給偉祥辦公室謝謝卓院長謝謝勞動部長備詢我們現在休息五分鐘\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n13386\t17487\t謝謝主席 有請我們卓院長麻煩再請卓院長備詢廖委員好院長好 院長辛苦了院長第一題我想要請問一下有關明年度各級的學校寒假跟農曆春假中間有三天你可以看一下簡報上面\n43223\t68982\t還有2月11號到2月13號這個空窗期然後馬上又接著是農曆的過年所以這事情其實有很多的家長抱怨大家都覺得學校這樣子的放假安排是很荒謬行程的規劃會大亂然後返鄉的車票也不好買最重要是孩子學習的連貫性也是一個問題更不要忘記冬季還是流感的流行季\n69542\t97582\t那很多公衛的學者有說盡量不要大規模的人流移動也可能造成醫療體系的負荷所以希望院長您看到這個狀況是不是可以體諒跟理解家長老師和這個醫療體系他們相關的擔憂是不是這個部分因為休假部分行政部門應該就可以去修改這個相關的規則可不可以請院長在這部分體諒一下學生和這些家長們相關的擔憂\n99407\t122844\t確實因為明年這個春節的時間的提前所以變成說當有一天這個未來補假的問題會產生問題228好像這一天我如果沒有記錯的話228這一天如果補假會變成沒有放假又變成補假所以院長我是希望說 重點在大年初四這一天對我是希望說您這個這個部分是不是可以去調整有非常多的家長在反映我們現在這個\n124766\t150302\t過春節連假的當中這一天我們有在注意到這三天有空窗期啊再請院長是不是回去研議一下看怎麼把它調整不然連貫在一起這個要跟教育單位去各個提醒謝謝米倫的提醒好不好那院長再來我想要請教一下你你有沒有看過這個美國白宮的經濟顧問委員會的主席米倫在入閣前他有提出的報告中的一項計畫左邊這邊\n154039\t174510\t他其實就是現在的海湖莊園協議那他提到關稅作為談判工具那他的目的是要逼迫其他國家升值他們的匯率並購買美國國債最終讓美元大幅貶值那這份計畫就是所謂的海湖莊園協議那他裡面也提到經過一連串的這個關稅懲罰性關稅之後貿易夥伴\n181174\t199481\t更容易接受某種形式的貨幣協議來換取降低關稅那麼現在其實很多人也是幾乎所有的財經學者都在說這個海湖狀元協議其實就是廣場協議2.0的版本那這個海湖狀元協議裡面還有一個核心理念院長\n200726\t208777\t請聽一下就是美國提供軍事保護那貿易夥伴需要付出的代價包含配合美國讓貨幣升值以換取\n211893\t235463\t這個美元貶值然後購買低利率的超長期美國國債來減輕美國的債務壓力那其實這聽起來是很瘋狂可是其實他很符合川普覺得盟友應該為美國軍事保護買單他不喜歡美元太強的這個概念那根據上面的內容以及相關的報導其實台灣可以說對美國來講是一個\n237805\t251000\t這個有關商周也說,這叫做夢幻客戶那有幾個條件台灣都滿足第一個,我們高度仰賴美國市場第二個,需要美國的保護第三個,也深怕我們美國視為我們是匯率操縱國\n253283\t277373\t所以也是被認為說我們是很快迅速在這個慘判中會妥協的那院長在這部分也很巧在五月一號行政院五月一號的時候稱台美完成首輪磋商那隔天五月二號匯率就大升值所以因此根據前面所說我想大家最想問的就是究竟我們是否在這個匯率上面跟美國有達成某種協議嗎\n280492\t303071\t5月1號的這個由副院長領軍的談判團跟美方的協議談判過程當中我再次重調沒有涉及任何的關稅問題是 好 我知道對不起 匯率問題我有看你們這兩天的說法其實基本上您跟楊建宗總裁還有賴清德總統都說是沒有涉及到匯率可是我從上述的幾個論證 幾個事件\n305993\t326082\t告訴你其實很難讓民眾相信但因為這麼巧就在這個時候台幣的匯率暴升不過我就想追問那請問目前你們說沒有但未來是否會將匯率跟這個超長期的低利率美國國債當成談判籌碼之一以換取低關稅以及美國提供的軍事保護\n327179\t351645\t目前談判的內容當然我們不便對外說但是我們有說明的現在談判的內容就是在對等關稅、非關稅貿易障礙、出國管制、經濟安全等等那也就是說您不排除把這兩項當成是未來的籌碼之一這個說法我早上說過不能這麼武斷的說排除不排除還沒有發生的事情還沒發生就是不排除啦其實院長應該就是這樣啦關稅跟非關稅\n355227\t360661\t貿易障礙還有出國管制另外還有經濟安全來做討論院長我要提醒你啦 就是說\n361997\t384352\t你剛剛這句話其實就是在算是避重就重你不能這樣解讀我絕對沒有這樣的意思其實簡單來講你是說不能排除好沒關係我想要跟院長說的是在1985年的廣場協議之後其實可以看到日本的下場就是失落了30年不管是經濟房地產或者是產業外移所以其實有這次的前車之鑒你可以看到\n385313\t406166\t跟美日談判的時候日本首相是強硬的表示不會為了協議犧牲日本的利益那我這裡要再請院長因為你剛剛還是沒有辦法講清楚嘛那我還是說希望站在國家利益不要一味的妥協不要短視應該為了我們國家的利益長遠的利益來著想不要讓這個海湖狀元協議變成台灣的廣場協議2.0好嗎\n409893\t425126\t這個總統在聲明當中已經說過了他會爭取國家的利益他也不會放過任何一個產業但是院長我跟你講這前後這樣子講起來其實以上不管執政團隊有沒有談或者是有沒有把它未來變成是一個籌碼之一\n426508\t447649\t議員我們在這裡要對國人做一個正面的宣示就是談判的過程沒有匯率院長您先聽我講完吧好我現在沒有在講這個我現在告訴你說不管到底有沒有相不相信這個你們講你們覺得我也都相信你們講的話但是現在的重點事實擺在眼前的是還沒變成籌碼之一我們台幣就已經迅速的升值\n448750\t455643\t已經迅速的升值所以我想要請教院長在台幣迅速升值跟關稅的雙夾擊之下這樣對於我國出口產業的短期衝擊和長期衝擊是什麼請教院長\n462162\t479198\t最近一周以來台幣的強勁的升值當然對我們的產業造成相當大的衝擊那我們現在包括央行也從過去穩定貨幣的相關政策之下我們持續的加強各種觀察院長你曉得短期衝擊是什麼嗎您可以舉幾個例子嗎\n480279\t492898\t我說的是這個禮拜以來啦上個禮拜到現在我會說針對匯率急速升值這件事情照理說應該已經要去評估了吧好沒關係院長你如果沒有辦法條列式的講出來我跟你講有幾個衝擊第一個\n495402\t524662\t然後利率跟獲利縮水這個很嚴重部分的代工業和製造業他一夕就是轉成本來比如說5%好了他迅速拉升了10%他就虧錢了這個單就虧錢了甚至我們地方上有產業界的龍頭說他一年出口已經被下訂了5000個貨櫃就迅速升值可能會虧爆已經打到建股他本來還不是出口美國他本來是歐洲市場所以他連這個本來他本來沒有想到這麼嚴重\n526063\t554361\t連匯率都變成這樣的情況之下他基本上是被打到見骨這是第一個所以跟我們的院長報告第一個短期的衝擊第二個是現金流跟他的財務壓力那第三個就是訂單的成本和採購延後第四個是避險的成本跟他們要操作的難度很拉高這些中小企業大企業可能還可以小企業就很辛苦還有另外同業的競爭力跟市場的地位這五個是短期衝擊\n555482\t574223\t那再來長期衝擊長期這樣子維持我們的匯率往上走請問院長我要告訴你的是第一個長期的它的毛利跟獲利也會持續的壓縮再來我們國家出口量跟訂單會縮減再來就是我們生產的產地跟供應鏈要重組\n576468\t592142\t所以再來最後一個是我們的產業的結構轉型的壓力所以我就想要我剛剛問的問題就是顯示出院長你們好像對於這個評估並沒有很詳細的評估啊這讓我們的中小企業很擔心我以為你這個\n593208\t608917\t非常有學術專業但是我跟你們報告央行長期對匯率的掌握就是定期在做這樣的評估只是現在針對現在快速上漲的這幾個幾天以來央行昨天已經對外宣布了他的說法\n610489\t624986\t那我再進一步問你那對於勞工的評估勞工權益的衝擊因為剛剛講是產業的部分那接下來最重要最關心的也就是我們的勞工我們產業支持不下去的時候失業勞工的狀況就可能會發生\n626047\t645140\t所以我們其實現在很擔心這個我剛剛也苦口婆心的在問的就是看到目前為止行政院好像對於這個關稅之外對於這個匯率的雙重的夾擊並沒有去做一個很詳盡的評估剛剛已經說了這個是讓我們很擔心的央行長期以來定期在做這些評估你又說沒有評估這不對啊其實這個題目啊\n647521\t667916\t上週二這個牛許廷委員也問了問你們有沒有做關稅以外有沒有做匯率衝擊的評估其實你們那時候回答就是沒有所以過了一個禮拜之後也是這樣我回答一樣啊央行定期都有來報告相關的內容昨天央行已經對外說了我們要點出嚴重性所以想要問你其實在我國現在美國市場簡單來講我們衝擊很大本來關稅是第一個衝擊\n672839\t685525\t美國的衝擊再來就是匯率提升之外就是出口商等等的然後再來就是我們國人就業問題那還有一些所謂的這個上市公司鼓勵有一些股民的權益也可能會受到這個影響\n686775\t708037\t所以其實我上次在質詢的時候也說這次4100億的這個預算裡面你們針對這個農工產業的補助是930億那其實我是認為遠遠不夠那對於勞犬的部分是150億所以這個部分我想要請這個院長剛剛講到衝擊評估的部分第一個是不是可以請院長盡速的\n710899\t734190\t將這個有關於關稅以及匯率的雙重夾擊之下的不同情境可不可以有個比較這個嚴謹的評估報告可以調給本席包含譬如說1比30有沒有辦法維穩在1比30左右那如果調到1比28或是調到1比25會發生什麼事情受衝擊的產業規模跟人數勞工的人數這是我們現在關心的事情要拜託院長\n735169\t754958\t另外外界也普遍認為新台幣的30元就是維持在1比30的部分是心理跟經濟的雙重關卡如果守不住的話也會恐怕不只是無薪假的問題也可能引發大規模的失業所以包含我們中部的關鍵產業工具機來講所以2024年的時候其實我們比2014年的工具機產業已經下滑65%\n761881\t788678\t可是今年又遇到這樣子的匯率升值很可能會滅團很擔心會有大量的倒閉潮和滅團那張忠謀董事長曾經也說過新台幣如果對美元如果升值1%他們的營業利率就會減少0.4%甚至有一些評估就是關於上市櫃公司可能縮減的是7.5%其實我們要講的是這些詳細的數據這些是一些金融行業估出來的\n789744\t813578\t所以我們其實最擔心的就是最終吳興跟柴源草的來臨那本席這邊希望因為過去你們上次是編930億那支持勞工150億可是你同時有拿了1500億來做所謂的任性但是其實我們在看的時候跟所謂的關稅跟我們的匯率跟民生的關聯不大那我這邊是覺得這1500億應該是不是歸回公務總預算裡面那應該把這1500億立即注入\n819341\t830806\t跟這些勞工產業有關的急迫需求所以本席的具體建議包含我們勞工的部分因為勞工部長也上來嘛其實我很擔心的是這個那我們希望具體建議的是\n832506\t854441\t我們希望勞工權益的部分在這4100立面的益利可以加高那包含著什麼包含著產業的部分的話就是金融支持因為現在已經不只是對美出口的基期的問題你上次說是10%基期的問題現在已經不只是這個部分是全部出口產業所以這部分也要滾動調整要請院長回去金融支持的部分要加大\n854901\t876821\t第二個勞動的部分我們希望可以增加我們的勞工權益就是我們安心及時上工這個東西可以請我們的部長因為這個過去在疫情期間是有這樣子的支持那現在因為要還有一定的程序要走因為它不是常態性的所以這個部分是不是可以請院長和部長回去去盡速的研議\n879407\t900684\t其實過去相關有的就業工具其實我們都已經盤點都已經做相關的準備了可是每一個工具要實施的時間點適合的時間點可能不同現在可能比較會先要先處理的事情是關於減班休息這個企業如果發生減班休息的話我們怎麼如何因應來支持勞工那剛剛廖委員說的安心及時上工我們其實也做了相關的盤點\n901585\t919951\t可是這部分比較是要來創造比較多的公部門的就業的機會來容納失業的勞工那這個部分我們已經做相關的盤點了可是它的實施的時間點可能會跟請問你們現在盤點的時程跟這個規模有沒有反映到現在即將可能來臨的這是第一件事我們現在的工具都已經做了盤點了\n920911\t945212\t現在是來看哪一個工具不同的適合的時間點我現在提出這兩個具體的要求請您回去研議這兩件事第二個是長年有的請你擴大它的人數和它的規模那再請你們提供一份報告給本席班好 謝謝廖偉祥委員的資訊麻煩請行政院將廖偉祥委員所取的資料交給偉祥辦公室謝謝卓院長 謝謝勞動部長備詢我們現在休息五分鐘\n","txt":"謝謝主席 有請我們卓院長麻煩再請卓院長備詢廖委員好院長好 院長辛苦了院長第一題我想要請問一下有關明年度各級的學校寒假跟農曆春假中間有三天你可以看一下簡報上面\n還有2月11號到2月13號這個空窗期然後馬上又接著是農曆的過年所以這事情其實有很多的家長抱怨大家都覺得學校這樣子的放假安排是很荒謬行程的規劃會大亂然後返鄉的車票也不好買最重要是孩子學習的連貫性也是一個問題更不要忘記冬季還是流感的流行季\n那很多公衛的學者有說盡量不要大規模的人流移動也可能造成醫療體系的負荷所以希望院長您看到這個狀況是不是可以體諒跟理解家長老師和這個醫療體系他們相關的擔憂是不是這個部分因為休假部分行政部門應該就可以去修改這個相關的規則可不可以請院長在這部分體諒一下學生和這些家長們相關的擔憂\n確實因為明年這個春節的時間的提前所以變成說當有一天這個未來補假的問題會產生問題228好像這一天我如果沒有記錯的話228這一天如果補假會變成沒有放假又變成補假所以院長我是希望說 重點在大年初四這一天對我是希望說您這個這個部分是不是可以去調整有非常多的家長在反映我們現在這個\n過春節連假的當中這一天我們有在注意到這三天有空窗期啊再請院長是不是回去研議一下看怎麼把它調整不然連貫在一起這個要跟教育單位去各個提醒謝謝米倫的提醒好不好那院長再來我想要請教一下你你有沒有看過這個美國白宮的經濟顧問委員會的主席米倫在入閣前他有提出的報告中的一項計畫左邊這邊\n他其實就是現在的海湖莊園協議那他提到關稅作為談判工具那他的目的是要逼迫其他國家升值他們的匯率並購買美國國債最終讓美元大幅貶值那這份計畫就是所謂的海湖莊園協議那他裡面也提到經過一連串的這個關稅懲罰性關稅之後貿易夥伴\n更容易接受某種形式的貨幣協議來換取降低關稅那麼現在其實很多人也是幾乎所有的財經學者都在說這個海湖狀元協議其實就是廣場協議2.0的版本那這個海湖狀元協議裡面還有一個核心理念院長\n請聽一下就是美國提供軍事保護那貿易夥伴需要付出的代價包含配合美國讓貨幣升值以換取\n這個美元貶值然後購買低利率的超長期美國國債來減輕美國的債務壓力那其實這聽起來是很瘋狂可是其實他很符合川普覺得盟友應該為美國軍事保護買單他不喜歡美元太強的這個概念那根據上面的內容以及相關的報導其實台灣可以說對美國來講是一個\n這個有關商周也說,這叫做夢幻客戶那有幾個條件台灣都滿足第一個,我們高度仰賴美國市場第二個,需要美國的保護第三個,也深怕我們美國視為我們是匯率操縱國\n所以也是被認為說我們是很快迅速在這個慘判中會妥協的那院長在這部分也很巧在五月一號行政院五月一號的時候稱台美完成首輪磋商那隔天五月二號匯率就大升值所以因此根據前面所說我想大家最想問的就是究竟我們是否在這個匯率上面跟美國有達成某種協議嗎\n5月1號的這個由副院長領軍的談判團跟美方的協議談判過程當中我再次重調沒有涉及任何的關稅問題是 好 我知道對不起 匯率問題我有看你們這兩天的說法其實基本上您跟楊建宗總裁還有賴清德總統都說是沒有涉及到匯率可是我從上述的幾個論證 幾個事件\n告訴你其實很難讓民眾相信但因為這麼巧就在這個時候台幣的匯率暴升不過我就想追問那請問目前你們說沒有但未來是否會將匯率跟這個超長期的低利率美國國債當成談判籌碼之一以換取低關稅以及美國提供的軍事保護\n目前談判的內容當然我們不便對外說但是我們有說明的現在談判的內容就是在對等關稅、非關稅貿易障礙、出國管制、經濟安全等等那也就是說您不排除把這兩項當成是未來的籌碼之一這個說法我早上說過不能這麼武斷的說排除不排除還沒有發生的事情還沒發生就是不排除啦其實院長應該就是這樣啦關稅跟非關稅\n貿易障礙還有出國管制另外還有經濟安全來做討論院長我要提醒你啦 就是說\n你剛剛這句話其實就是在算是避重就重你不能這樣解讀我絕對沒有這樣的意思其實簡單來講你是說不能排除好沒關係我想要跟院長說的是在1985年的廣場協議之後其實可以看到日本的下場就是失落了30年不管是經濟房地產或者是產業外移所以其實有這次的前車之鑒你可以看到\n跟美日談判的時候日本首相是強硬的表示不會為了協議犧牲日本的利益那我這裡要再請院長因為你剛剛還是沒有辦法講清楚嘛那我還是說希望站在國家利益不要一味的妥協不要短視應該為了我們國家的利益長遠的利益來著想不要讓這個海湖狀元協議變成台灣的廣場協議2.0好嗎\n這個總統在聲明當中已經說過了他會爭取國家的利益他也不會放過任何一個產業但是院長我跟你講這前後這樣子講起來其實以上不管執政團隊有沒有談或者是有沒有把它未來變成是一個籌碼之一\n議員我們在這裡要對國人做一個正面的宣示就是談判的過程沒有匯率院長您先聽我講完吧好我現在沒有在講這個我現在告訴你說不管到底有沒有相不相信這個你們講你們覺得我也都相信你們講的話但是現在的重點事實擺在眼前的是還沒變成籌碼之一我們台幣就已經迅速的升值\n已經迅速的升值所以我想要請教院長在台幣迅速升值跟關稅的雙夾擊之下這樣對於我國出口產業的短期衝擊和長期衝擊是什麼請教院長\n最近一周以來台幣的強勁的升值當然對我們的產業造成相當大的衝擊那我們現在包括央行也從過去穩定貨幣的相關政策之下我們持續的加強各種觀察院長你曉得短期衝擊是什麼嗎您可以舉幾個例子嗎\n我說的是這個禮拜以來啦上個禮拜到現在我會說針對匯率急速升值這件事情照理說應該已經要去評估了吧好沒關係院長你如果沒有辦法條列式的講出來我跟你講有幾個衝擊第一個\n然後利率跟獲利縮水這個很嚴重部分的代工業和製造業他一夕就是轉成本來比如說5%好了他迅速拉升了10%他就虧錢了這個單就虧錢了甚至我們地方上有產業界的龍頭說他一年出口已經被下訂了5000個貨櫃就迅速升值可能會虧爆已經打到建股他本來還不是出口美國他本來是歐洲市場所以他連這個本來他本來沒有想到這麼嚴重\n連匯率都變成這樣的情況之下他基本上是被打到見骨這是第一個所以跟我們的院長報告第一個短期的衝擊第二個是現金流跟他的財務壓力那第三個就是訂單的成本和採購延後第四個是避險的成本跟他們要操作的難度很拉高這些中小企業大企業可能還可以小企業就很辛苦還有另外同業的競爭力跟市場的地位這五個是短期衝擊\n那再來長期衝擊長期這樣子維持我們的匯率往上走請問院長我要告訴你的是第一個長期的它的毛利跟獲利也會持續的壓縮再來我們國家出口量跟訂單會縮減再來就是我們生產的產地跟供應鏈要重組\n所以再來最後一個是我們的產業的結構轉型的壓力所以我就想要我剛剛問的問題就是顯示出院長你們好像對於這個評估並沒有很詳細的評估啊這讓我們的中小企業很擔心我以為你這個\n非常有學術專業但是我跟你們報告央行長期對匯率的掌握就是定期在做這樣的評估只是現在針對現在快速上漲的這幾個幾天以來央行昨天已經對外宣布了他的說法\n那我再進一步問你那對於勞工的評估勞工權益的衝擊因為剛剛講是產業的部分那接下來最重要最關心的也就是我們的勞工我們產業支持不下去的時候失業勞工的狀況就可能會發生\n所以我們其實現在很擔心這個我剛剛也苦口婆心的在問的就是看到目前為止行政院好像對於這個關稅之外對於這個匯率的雙重的夾擊並沒有去做一個很詳盡的評估剛剛已經說了這個是讓我們很擔心的央行長期以來定期在做這些評估你又說沒有評估這不對啊其實這個題目啊\n上週二這個牛許廷委員也問了問你們有沒有做關稅以外有沒有做匯率衝擊的評估其實你們那時候回答就是沒有所以過了一個禮拜之後也是這樣我回答一樣啊央行定期都有來報告相關的內容昨天央行已經對外說了我們要點出嚴重性所以想要問你其實在我國現在美國市場簡單來講我們衝擊很大本來關稅是第一個衝擊\n美國的衝擊再來就是匯率提升之外就是出口商等等的然後再來就是我們國人就業問題那還有一些所謂的這個上市公司鼓勵有一些股民的權益也可能會受到這個影響\n所以其實我上次在質詢的時候也說這次4100億的這個預算裡面你們針對這個農工產業的補助是930億那其實我是認為遠遠不夠那對於勞犬的部分是150億所以這個部分我想要請這個院長剛剛講到衝擊評估的部分第一個是不是可以請院長盡速的\n將這個有關於關稅以及匯率的雙重夾擊之下的不同情境可不可以有個比較這個嚴謹的評估報告可以調給本席包含譬如說1比30有沒有辦法維穩在1比30左右那如果調到1比28或是調到1比25會發生什麼事情受衝擊的產業規模跟人數勞工的人數這是我們現在關心的事情要拜託院長\n另外外界也普遍認為新台幣的30元就是維持在1比30的部分是心理跟經濟的雙重關卡如果守不住的話也會恐怕不只是無薪假的問題也可能引發大規模的失業所以包含我們中部的關鍵產業工具機來講所以2024年的時候其實我們比2014年的工具機產業已經下滑65%\n可是今年又遇到這樣子的匯率升值很可能會滅團很擔心會有大量的倒閉潮和滅團那張忠謀董事長曾經也說過新台幣如果對美元如果升值1%他們的營業利率就會減少0.4%甚至有一些評估就是關於上市櫃公司可能縮減的是7.5%其實我們要講的是這些詳細的數據這些是一些金融行業估出來的\n所以我們其實最擔心的就是最終吳興跟柴源草的來臨那本席這邊希望因為過去你們上次是編930億那支持勞工150億可是你同時有拿了1500億來做所謂的任性但是其實我們在看的時候跟所謂的關稅跟我們的匯率跟民生的關聯不大那我這邊是覺得這1500億應該是不是歸回公務總預算裡面那應該把這1500億立即注入\n跟這些勞工產業有關的急迫需求所以本席的具體建議包含我們勞工的部分因為勞工部長也上來嘛其實我很擔心的是這個那我們希望具體建議的是\n我們希望勞工權益的部分在這4100立面的益利可以加高那包含著什麼包含著產業的部分的話就是金融支持因為現在已經不只是對美出口的基期的問題你上次說是10%基期的問題現在已經不只是這個部分是全部出口產業所以這部分也要滾動調整要請院長回去金融支持的部分要加大\n第二個勞動的部分我們希望可以增加我們的勞工權益就是我們安心及時上工這個東西可以請我們的部長因為這個過去在疫情期間是有這樣子的支持那現在因為要還有一定的程序要走因為它不是常態性的所以這個部分是不是可以請院長和部長回去去盡速的研議\n其實過去相關有的就業工具其實我們都已經盤點都已經做相關的準備了可是每一個工具要實施的時間點適合的時間點可能不同現在可能比較會先要先處理的事情是關於減班休息這個企業如果發生減班休息的話我們怎麼如何因應來支持勞工那剛剛廖委員說的安心及時上工我們其實也做了相關的盤點\n可是這部分比較是要來創造比較多的公部門的就業的機會來容納失業的勞工那這個部分我們已經做相關的盤點了可是它的實施的時間點可能會跟請問你們現在盤點的時程跟這個規模有沒有反映到現在即將可能來臨的這是第一件事我們現在的工具都已經做了盤點了\n現在是來看哪一個工具不同的適合的時間點我現在提出這兩個具體的要求請您回去研議這兩件事第二個是長年有的請你擴大它的人數和它的規模那再請你們提供一份報告給本席班好 謝謝廖偉祥委員的資訊麻煩請行政院將廖偉祥委員所取的資料交給偉祥辦公室謝謝卓院長 謝謝勞動部長備詢我們現在休息五分鐘\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:13.386 --> 00:17.487\n謝謝主席有請我們卓院長麻煩再請卓院長備詢廖委員好院長好院長辛苦了院長第一題我想要請問一下有關明年度各級的學校寒假跟農曆春假中間有三天你可以看一下簡報上面\n\n00:43.223 --> 01:08.982\n還有2月11號到2月13號這個空窗期然後馬上又接著是農曆的過年所以這事情其實有很多的家長抱怨大家都覺得學校這樣子的放假安排是很荒謬行程的規劃會大亂然後返鄉的車票也不好買最重要是孩子學習的連貫性也是一個問題更不要忘記冬季還是流感的流行季\n\n01:09.542 --> 01:37.582\n那很多公衛的學者有說盡量不要大規模的人流移動也可能造成醫療體系的負荷所以希望院長您看到這個狀況是不是可以體諒跟理解家長老師和這個醫療體系他們相關的擔憂是不是這個部分因為休假部分行政部門應該就可以去修改這個相關的規則可不可以請院長在這部分體諒一下學生和這些家長們相關的擔憂\n\n01:39.407 --> 02:02.844\n確實因為明年這個春節的時間的提前所以變成說當有一天這個未來補假的問題會產生問題228好像這一天我如果沒有記錯的話228這一天如果補假會變成沒有放假又變成補假所以院長我是希望說重點在大年初四這一天對我是希望說您這個這個部分是不是可以去調整有非常多的家長在反映我們現在這個\n\n02:04.766 --> 02:30.302\n過春節連假的當中這一天我們有在注意到這三天有空窗期啊再請院長是不是回去研議一下看怎麼把它調整不然連貫在一起這個要跟教育單位去各個提醒謝謝米倫的提醒好不好那院長再來我想要請教一下你你有沒有看過這個美國白宮的經濟顧問委員會的主席米倫在入閣前他有提出的報告中的一項計畫左邊這邊\n\n02:34.039 --> 02:54.510\n他其實就是現在的海湖莊園協議那他提到關稅作為談判工具那他的目的是要逼迫其他國家升值他們的匯率並購買美國國債最終讓美元大幅貶值那這份計畫就是所謂的海湖莊園協議那他裡面也提到經過一連串的這個關稅懲罰性關稅之後貿易夥伴\n\n03:01.174 --> 03:19.481\n更容易接受某種形式的貨幣協議來換取降低關稅那麼現在其實很多人也是幾乎所有的財經學者都在說這個海湖狀元協議其實就是廣場協議2.0的版本那這個海湖狀元協議裡面還有一個核心理念院長\n\n03:20.726 --> 03:28.777\n請聽一下就是美國提供軍事保護那貿易夥伴需要付出的代價包含配合美國讓貨幣升值以換取\n\n03:31.893 --> 03:55.463\n這個美元貶值然後購買低利率的超長期美國國債來減輕美國的債務壓力那其實這聽起來是很瘋狂可是其實他很符合川普覺得盟友應該為美國軍事保護買單他不喜歡美元太強的這個概念那根據上面的內容以及相關的報導其實台灣可以說對美國來講是一個\n\n03:57.805 --> 04:11.000\n這個有關商周也說,這叫做夢幻客戶那有幾個條件台灣都滿足第一個,我們高度仰賴美國市場第二個,需要美國的保護第三個,也深怕我們美國視為我們是匯率操縱國\n\n04:13.283 --> 04:37.373\n所以也是被認為說我們是很快迅速在這個慘判中會妥協的那院長在這部分也很巧在五月一號行政院五月一號的時候稱台美完成首輪磋商那隔天五月二號匯率就大升值所以因此根據前面所說我想大家最想問的就是究竟我們是否在這個匯率上面跟美國有達成某種協議嗎\n\n04:40.492 --> 05:03.071\n5月1號的這個由副院長領軍的談判團跟美方的協議談判過程當中我再次重調沒有涉及任何的關稅問題是好我知道對不起匯率問題我有看你們這兩天的說法其實基本上您跟楊建宗總裁還有賴清德總統都說是沒有涉及到匯率可是我從上述的幾個論證幾個事件\n\n05:05.993 --> 05:26.082\n告訴你其實很難讓民眾相信但因為這麼巧就在這個時候台幣的匯率暴升不過我就想追問那請問目前你們說沒有但未來是否會將匯率跟這個超長期的低利率美國國債當成談判籌碼之一以換取低關稅以及美國提供的軍事保護\n\n05:27.179 --> 05:51.645\n目前談判的內容當然我們不便對外說但是我們有說明的現在談判的內容就是在對等關稅、非關稅貿易障礙、出國管制、經濟安全等等那也就是說您不排除把這兩項當成是未來的籌碼之一這個說法我早上說過不能這麼武斷的說排除不排除還沒有發生的事情還沒發生就是不排除啦其實院長應該就是這樣啦關稅跟非關稅\n\n05:55.227 --> 06:00.661\n貿易障礙還有出國管制另外還有經濟安全來做討論院長我要提醒你啦就是說\n\n06:01.997 --> 06:24.352\n你剛剛這句話其實就是在算是避重就重你不能這樣解讀我絕對沒有這樣的意思其實簡單來講你是說不能排除好沒關係我想要跟院長說的是在1985年的廣場協議之後其實可以看到日本的下場就是失落了30年不管是經濟房地產或者是產業外移所以其實有這次的前車之鑒你可以看到\n\n06:25.313 --> 06:46.166\n跟美日談判的時候日本首相是強硬的表示不會為了協議犧牲日本的利益那我這裡要再請院長因為你剛剛還是沒有辦法講清楚嘛那我還是說希望站在國家利益不要一味的妥協不要短視應該為了我們國家的利益長遠的利益來著想不要讓這個海湖狀元協議變成台灣的廣場協議2.0好嗎\n\n06:49.893 --> 07:05.126\n這個總統在聲明當中已經說過了他會爭取國家的利益他也不會放過任何一個產業但是院長我跟你講這前後這樣子講起來其實以上不管執政團隊有沒有談或者是有沒有把它未來變成是一個籌碼之一\n\n07:06.508 --> 07:27.649\n議員我們在這裡要對國人做一個正面的宣示就是談判的過程沒有匯率院長您先聽我講完吧好我現在沒有在講這個我現在告訴你說不管到底有沒有相不相信這個你們講你們覺得我也都相信你們講的話但是現在的重點事實擺在眼前的是還沒變成籌碼之一我們台幣就已經迅速的升值\n\n07:28.750 --> 07:35.643\n已經迅速的升值所以我想要請教院長在台幣迅速升值跟關稅的雙夾擊之下這樣對於我國出口產業的短期衝擊和長期衝擊是什麼請教院長\n\n07:42.162 --> 07:59.198\n最近一周以來台幣的強勁的升值當然對我們的產業造成相當大的衝擊那我們現在包括央行也從過去穩定貨幣的相關政策之下我們持續的加強各種觀察院長你曉得短期衝擊是什麼嗎您可以舉幾個例子嗎\n\n08:00.279 --> 08:12.898\n我說的是這個禮拜以來啦上個禮拜到現在我會說針對匯率急速升值這件事情照理說應該已經要去評估了吧好沒關係院長你如果沒有辦法條列式的講出來我跟你講有幾個衝擊第一個\n\n08:15.402 --> 08:44.662\n然後利率跟獲利縮水這個很嚴重部分的代工業和製造業他一夕就是轉成本來比如說5%好了他迅速拉升了10%他就虧錢了這個單就虧錢了甚至我們地方上有產業界的龍頭說他一年出口已經被下訂了5000個貨櫃就迅速升值可能會虧爆已經打到建股他本來還不是出口美國他本來是歐洲市場所以他連這個本來他本來沒有想到這麼嚴重\n\n08:46.063 --> 09:14.361\n連匯率都變成這樣的情況之下他基本上是被打到見骨這是第一個所以跟我們的院長報告第一個短期的衝擊第二個是現金流跟他的財務壓力那第三個就是訂單的成本和採購延後第四個是避險的成本跟他們要操作的難度很拉高這些中小企業大企業可能還可以小企業就很辛苦還有另外同業的競爭力跟市場的地位這五個是短期衝擊\n\n09:15.482 --> 09:34.223\n那再來長期衝擊長期這樣子維持我們的匯率往上走請問院長我要告訴你的是第一個長期的它的毛利跟獲利也會持續的壓縮再來我們國家出口量跟訂單會縮減再來就是我們生產的產地跟供應鏈要重組\n\n09:36.468 --> 09:52.142\n所以再來最後一個是我們的產業的結構轉型的壓力所以我就想要我剛剛問的問題就是顯示出院長你們好像對於這個評估並沒有很詳細的評估啊這讓我們的中小企業很擔心我以為你這個\n\n09:53.208 --> 10:08.917\n非常有學術專業但是我跟你們報告央行長期對匯率的掌握就是定期在做這樣的評估只是現在針對現在快速上漲的這幾個幾天以來央行昨天已經對外宣布了他的說法\n\n10:10.489 --> 10:24.986\n那我再進一步問你那對於勞工的評估勞工權益的衝擊因為剛剛講是產業的部分那接下來最重要最關心的也就是我們的勞工我們產業支持不下去的時候失業勞工的狀況就可能會發生\n\n10:26.047 --> 10:45.140\n所以我們其實現在很擔心這個我剛剛也苦口婆心的在問的就是看到目前為止行政院好像對於這個關稅之外對於這個匯率的雙重的夾擊並沒有去做一個很詳盡的評估剛剛已經說了這個是讓我們很擔心的央行長期以來定期在做這些評估你又說沒有評估這不對啊其實這個題目啊\n\n10:47.521 --> 11:07.916\n上週二這個牛許廷委員也問了問你們有沒有做關稅以外有沒有做匯率衝擊的評估其實你們那時候回答就是沒有所以過了一個禮拜之後也是這樣我回答一樣啊央行定期都有來報告相關的內容昨天央行已經對外說了我們要點出嚴重性所以想要問你其實在我國現在美國市場簡單來講我們衝擊很大本來關稅是第一個衝擊\n\n11:12.839 --> 11:25.525\n美國的衝擊再來就是匯率提升之外就是出口商等等的然後再來就是我們國人就業問題那還有一些所謂的這個上市公司鼓勵有一些股民的權益也可能會受到這個影響\n\n11:26.775 --> 11:48.037\n所以其實我上次在質詢的時候也說這次4100億的這個預算裡面你們針對這個農工產業的補助是930億那其實我是認為遠遠不夠那對於勞犬的部分是150億所以這個部分我想要請這個院長剛剛講到衝擊評估的部分第一個是不是可以請院長盡速的\n\n11:50.899 --> 12:14.190\n將這個有關於關稅以及匯率的雙重夾擊之下的不同情境可不可以有個比較這個嚴謹的評估報告可以調給本席包含譬如說1比30有沒有辦法維穩在1比30左右那如果調到1比28或是調到1比25會發生什麼事情受衝擊的產業規模跟人數勞工的人數這是我們現在關心的事情要拜託院長\n\n12:15.169 --> 12:34.958\n另外外界也普遍認為新台幣的30元就是維持在1比30的部分是心理跟經濟的雙重關卡如果守不住的話也會恐怕不只是無薪假的問題也可能引發大規模的失業所以包含我們中部的關鍵產業工具機來講所以2024年的時候其實我們比2014年的工具機產業已經下滑65%\n\n12:41.881 --> 13:08.678\n可是今年又遇到這樣子的匯率升值很可能會滅團很擔心會有大量的倒閉潮和滅團那張忠謀董事長曾經也說過新台幣如果對美元如果升值1%他們的營業利率就會減少0.4%甚至有一些評估就是關於上市櫃公司可能縮減的是7.5%其實我們要講的是這些詳細的數據這些是一些金融行業估出來的\n\n13:09.744 --> 13:33.578\n所以我們其實最擔心的就是最終吳興跟柴源草的來臨那本席這邊希望因為過去你們上次是編930億那支持勞工150億可是你同時有拿了1500億來做所謂的任性但是其實我們在看的時候跟所謂的關稅跟我們的匯率跟民生的關聯不大那我這邊是覺得這1500億應該是不是歸回公務總預算裡面那應該把這1500億立即注入\n\n13:39.341 --> 13:50.806\n跟這些勞工產業有關的急迫需求所以本席的具體建議包含我們勞工的部分因為勞工部長也上來嘛其實我很擔心的是這個那我們希望具體建議的是\n\n13:52.506 --> 14:14.441\n我們希望勞工權益的部分在這4100立面的益利可以加高那包含著什麼包含著產業的部分的話就是金融支持因為現在已經不只是對美出口的基期的問題你上次說是10%基期的問題現在已經不只是這個部分是全部出口產業所以這部分也要滾動調整要請院長回去金融支持的部分要加大\n\n14:14.901 --> 14:36.821\n第二個勞動的部分我們希望可以增加我們的勞工權益就是我們安心及時上工這個東西可以請我們的部長因為這個過去在疫情期間是有這樣子的支持那現在因為要還有一定的程序要走因為它不是常態性的所以這個部分是不是可以請院長和部長回去去盡速的研議\n\n14:39.407 --> 15:00.684\n其實過去相關有的就業工具其實我們都已經盤點都已經做相關的準備了可是每一個工具要實施的時間點適合的時間點可能不同現在可能比較會先要先處理的事情是關於減班休息這個企業如果發生減班休息的話我們怎麼如何因應來支持勞工那剛剛廖委員說的安心及時上工我們其實也做了相關的盤點\n\n15:01.585 --> 15:19.951\n可是這部分比較是要來創造比較多的公部門的就業的機會來容納失業的勞工那這個部分我們已經做相關的盤點了可是它的實施的時間點可能會跟請問你們現在盤點的時程跟這個規模有沒有反映到現在即將可能來臨的這是第一件事我們現在的工具都已經做了盤點了\n\n15:20.911 --> 15:45.212\n現在是來看哪一個工具不同的適合的時間點我現在提出這兩個具體的要求請您回去研議這兩件事第二個是長年有的請你擴大它的人數和它的規模那再請你們提供一份報告給本席班好謝謝廖偉祥委員的資訊麻煩請行政院將廖偉祥委員所取的資料交給偉祥辦公室謝謝卓院長謝謝勞動部長備詢我們現在休息五分鐘\n\n","segments":[{"start":13.386,"end":17.487,"text":"謝謝主席 有請我們卓院長麻煩再請卓院長備詢廖委員好院長好 院長辛苦了院長第一題我想要請問一下有關明年度各級的學校寒假跟農曆春假中間有三天你可以看一下簡報上面"},{"start":43.223,"end":68.982,"text":"還有2月11號到2月13號這個空窗期然後馬上又接著是農曆的過年所以這事情其實有很多的家長抱怨大家都覺得學校這樣子的放假安排是很荒謬行程的規劃會大亂然後返鄉的車票也不好買最重要是孩子學習的連貫性也是一個問題更不要忘記冬季還是流感的流行季"},{"start":69.542,"end":97.582,"text":"那很多公衛的學者有說盡量不要大規模的人流移動也可能造成醫療體系的負荷所以希望院長您看到這個狀況是不是可以體諒跟理解家長老師和這個醫療體系他們相關的擔憂是不是這個部分因為休假部分行政部門應該就可以去修改這個相關的規則可不可以請院長在這部分體諒一下學生和這些家長們相關的擔憂"},{"start":99.407,"end":122.844,"text":"確實因為明年這個春節的時間的提前所以變成說當有一天這個未來補假的問題會產生問題228好像這一天我如果沒有記錯的話228這一天如果補假會變成沒有放假又變成補假所以院長我是希望說 重點在大年初四這一天對我是希望說您這個這個部分是不是可以去調整有非常多的家長在反映我們現在這個"},{"start":124.766,"end":150.302,"text":"過春節連假的當中這一天我們有在注意到這三天有空窗期啊再請院長是不是回去研議一下看怎麼把它調整不然連貫在一起這個要跟教育單位去各個提醒謝謝米倫的提醒好不好那院長再來我想要請教一下你你有沒有看過這個美國白宮的經濟顧問委員會的主席米倫在入閣前他有提出的報告中的一項計畫左邊這邊"},{"start":154.039,"end":174.51,"text":"他其實就是現在的海湖莊園協議那他提到關稅作為談判工具那他的目的是要逼迫其他國家升值他們的匯率並購買美國國債最終讓美元大幅貶值那這份計畫就是所謂的海湖莊園協議那他裡面也提到經過一連串的這個關稅懲罰性關稅之後貿易夥伴"},{"start":181.174,"end":199.481,"text":"更容易接受某種形式的貨幣協議來換取降低關稅那麼現在其實很多人也是幾乎所有的財經學者都在說這個海湖狀元協議其實就是廣場協議2.0的版本那這個海湖狀元協議裡面還有一個核心理念院長"},{"start":200.726,"end":208.777,"text":"請聽一下就是美國提供軍事保護那貿易夥伴需要付出的代價包含配合美國讓貨幣升值以換取"},{"start":211.893,"end":235.463,"text":"這個美元貶值然後購買低利率的超長期美國國債來減輕美國的債務壓力那其實這聽起來是很瘋狂可是其實他很符合川普覺得盟友應該為美國軍事保護買單他不喜歡美元太強的這個概念那根據上面的內容以及相關的報導其實台灣可以說對美國來講是一個"},{"start":237.805,"end":251,"text":"這個有關商周也說,這叫做夢幻客戶那有幾個條件台灣都滿足第一個,我們高度仰賴美國市場第二個,需要美國的保護第三個,也深怕我們美國視為我們是匯率操縱國"},{"start":253.283,"end":277.373,"text":"所以也是被認為說我們是很快迅速在這個慘判中會妥協的那院長在這部分也很巧在五月一號行政院五月一號的時候稱台美完成首輪磋商那隔天五月二號匯率就大升值所以因此根據前面所說我想大家最想問的就是究竟我們是否在這個匯率上面跟美國有達成某種協議嗎"},{"start":280.492,"end":303.071,"text":"5月1號的這個由副院長領軍的談判團跟美方的協議談判過程當中我再次重調沒有涉及任何的關稅問題是 好 我知道對不起 匯率問題我有看你們這兩天的說法其實基本上您跟楊建宗總裁還有賴清德總統都說是沒有涉及到匯率可是我從上述的幾個論證 幾個事件"},{"start":305.993,"end":326.082,"text":"告訴你其實很難讓民眾相信但因為這麼巧就在這個時候台幣的匯率暴升不過我就想追問那請問目前你們說沒有但未來是否會將匯率跟這個超長期的低利率美國國債當成談判籌碼之一以換取低關稅以及美國提供的軍事保護"},{"start":327.179,"end":351.645,"text":"目前談判的內容當然我們不便對外說但是我們有說明的現在談判的內容就是在對等關稅、非關稅貿易障礙、出國管制、經濟安全等等那也就是說您不排除把這兩項當成是未來的籌碼之一這個說法我早上說過不能這麼武斷的說排除不排除還沒有發生的事情還沒發生就是不排除啦其實院長應該就是這樣啦關稅跟非關稅"},{"start":355.227,"end":360.661,"text":"貿易障礙還有出國管制另外還有經濟安全來做討論院長我要提醒你啦 就是說"},{"start":361.997,"end":384.352,"text":"你剛剛這句話其實就是在算是避重就重你不能這樣解讀我絕對沒有這樣的意思其實簡單來講你是說不能排除好沒關係我想要跟院長說的是在1985年的廣場協議之後其實可以看到日本的下場就是失落了30年不管是經濟房地產或者是產業外移所以其實有這次的前車之鑒你可以看到"},{"start":385.313,"end":406.166,"text":"跟美日談判的時候日本首相是強硬的表示不會為了協議犧牲日本的利益那我這裡要再請院長因為你剛剛還是沒有辦法講清楚嘛那我還是說希望站在國家利益不要一味的妥協不要短視應該為了我們國家的利益長遠的利益來著想不要讓這個海湖狀元協議變成台灣的廣場協議2.0好嗎"},{"start":409.893,"end":425.126,"text":"這個總統在聲明當中已經說過了他會爭取國家的利益他也不會放過任何一個產業但是院長我跟你講這前後這樣子講起來其實以上不管執政團隊有沒有談或者是有沒有把它未來變成是一個籌碼之一"},{"start":426.508,"end":447.649,"text":"議員我們在這裡要對國人做一個正面的宣示就是談判的過程沒有匯率院長您先聽我講完吧好我現在沒有在講這個我現在告訴你說不管到底有沒有相不相信這個你們講你們覺得我也都相信你們講的話但是現在的重點事實擺在眼前的是還沒變成籌碼之一我們台幣就已經迅速的升值"},{"start":448.75,"end":455.643,"text":"已經迅速的升值所以我想要請教院長在台幣迅速升值跟關稅的雙夾擊之下這樣對於我國出口產業的短期衝擊和長期衝擊是什麼請教院長"},{"start":462.162,"end":479.198,"text":"最近一周以來台幣的強勁的升值當然對我們的產業造成相當大的衝擊那我們現在包括央行也從過去穩定貨幣的相關政策之下我們持續的加強各種觀察院長你曉得短期衝擊是什麼嗎您可以舉幾個例子嗎"},{"start":480.279,"end":492.898,"text":"我說的是這個禮拜以來啦上個禮拜到現在我會說針對匯率急速升值這件事情照理說應該已經要去評估了吧好沒關係院長你如果沒有辦法條列式的講出來我跟你講有幾個衝擊第一個"},{"start":495.402,"end":524.662,"text":"然後利率跟獲利縮水這個很嚴重部分的代工業和製造業他一夕就是轉成本來比如說5%好了他迅速拉升了10%他就虧錢了這個單就虧錢了甚至我們地方上有產業界的龍頭說他一年出口已經被下訂了5000個貨櫃就迅速升值可能會虧爆已經打到建股他本來還不是出口美國他本來是歐洲市場所以他連這個本來他本來沒有想到這麼嚴重"},{"start":526.063,"end":554.361,"text":"連匯率都變成這樣的情況之下他基本上是被打到見骨這是第一個所以跟我們的院長報告第一個短期的衝擊第二個是現金流跟他的財務壓力那第三個就是訂單的成本和採購延後第四個是避險的成本跟他們要操作的難度很拉高這些中小企業大企業可能還可以小企業就很辛苦還有另外同業的競爭力跟市場的地位這五個是短期衝擊"},{"start":555.482,"end":574.223,"text":"那再來長期衝擊長期這樣子維持我們的匯率往上走請問院長我要告訴你的是第一個長期的它的毛利跟獲利也會持續的壓縮再來我們國家出口量跟訂單會縮減再來就是我們生產的產地跟供應鏈要重組"},{"start":576.468,"end":592.142,"text":"所以再來最後一個是我們的產業的結構轉型的壓力所以我就想要我剛剛問的問題就是顯示出院長你們好像對於這個評估並沒有很詳細的評估啊這讓我們的中小企業很擔心我以為你這個"},{"start":593.208,"end":608.917,"text":"非常有學術專業但是我跟你們報告央行長期對匯率的掌握就是定期在做這樣的評估只是現在針對現在快速上漲的這幾個幾天以來央行昨天已經對外宣布了他的說法"},{"start":610.489,"end":624.986,"text":"那我再進一步問你那對於勞工的評估勞工權益的衝擊因為剛剛講是產業的部分那接下來最重要最關心的也就是我們的勞工我們產業支持不下去的時候失業勞工的狀況就可能會發生"},{"start":626.047,"end":645.14,"text":"所以我們其實現在很擔心這個我剛剛也苦口婆心的在問的就是看到目前為止行政院好像對於這個關稅之外對於這個匯率的雙重的夾擊並沒有去做一個很詳盡的評估剛剛已經說了這個是讓我們很擔心的央行長期以來定期在做這些評估你又說沒有評估這不對啊其實這個題目啊"},{"start":647.521,"end":667.916,"text":"上週二這個牛許廷委員也問了問你們有沒有做關稅以外有沒有做匯率衝擊的評估其實你們那時候回答就是沒有所以過了一個禮拜之後也是這樣我回答一樣啊央行定期都有來報告相關的內容昨天央行已經對外說了我們要點出嚴重性所以想要問你其實在我國現在美國市場簡單來講我們衝擊很大本來關稅是第一個衝擊"},{"start":672.839,"end":685.525,"text":"美國的衝擊再來就是匯率提升之外就是出口商等等的然後再來就是我們國人就業問題那還有一些所謂的這個上市公司鼓勵有一些股民的權益也可能會受到這個影響"},{"start":686.775,"end":708.037,"text":"所以其實我上次在質詢的時候也說這次4100億的這個預算裡面你們針對這個農工產業的補助是930億那其實我是認為遠遠不夠那對於勞犬的部分是150億所以這個部分我想要請這個院長剛剛講到衝擊評估的部分第一個是不是可以請院長盡速的"},{"start":710.899,"end":734.19,"text":"將這個有關於關稅以及匯率的雙重夾擊之下的不同情境可不可以有個比較這個嚴謹的評估報告可以調給本席包含譬如說1比30有沒有辦法維穩在1比30左右那如果調到1比28或是調到1比25會發生什麼事情受衝擊的產業規模跟人數勞工的人數這是我們現在關心的事情要拜託院長"},{"start":735.169,"end":754.958,"text":"另外外界也普遍認為新台幣的30元就是維持在1比30的部分是心理跟經濟的雙重關卡如果守不住的話也會恐怕不只是無薪假的問題也可能引發大規模的失業所以包含我們中部的關鍵產業工具機來講所以2024年的時候其實我們比2014年的工具機產業已經下滑65%"},{"start":761.881,"end":788.678,"text":"可是今年又遇到這樣子的匯率升值很可能會滅團很擔心會有大量的倒閉潮和滅團那張忠謀董事長曾經也說過新台幣如果對美元如果升值1%他們的營業利率就會減少0.4%甚至有一些評估就是關於上市櫃公司可能縮減的是7.5%其實我們要講的是這些詳細的數據這些是一些金融行業估出來的"},{"start":789.744,"end":813.578,"text":"所以我們其實最擔心的就是最終吳興跟柴源草的來臨那本席這邊希望因為過去你們上次是編930億那支持勞工150億可是你同時有拿了1500億來做所謂的任性但是其實我們在看的時候跟所謂的關稅跟我們的匯率跟民生的關聯不大那我這邊是覺得這1500億應該是不是歸回公務總預算裡面那應該把這1500億立即注入"},{"start":819.341,"end":830.806,"text":"跟這些勞工產業有關的急迫需求所以本席的具體建議包含我們勞工的部分因為勞工部長也上來嘛其實我很擔心的是這個那我們希望具體建議的是"},{"start":832.506,"end":854.441,"text":"我們希望勞工權益的部分在這4100立面的益利可以加高那包含著什麼包含著產業的部分的話就是金融支持因為現在已經不只是對美出口的基期的問題你上次說是10%基期的問題現在已經不只是這個部分是全部出口產業所以這部分也要滾動調整要請院長回去金融支持的部分要加大"},{"start":854.901,"end":876.821,"text":"第二個勞動的部分我們希望可以增加我們的勞工權益就是我們安心及時上工這個東西可以請我們的部長因為這個過去在疫情期間是有這樣子的支持那現在因為要還有一定的程序要走因為它不是常態性的所以這個部分是不是可以請院長和部長回去去盡速的研議"},{"start":879.407,"end":900.684,"text":"其實過去相關有的就業工具其實我們都已經盤點都已經做相關的準備了可是每一個工具要實施的時間點適合的時間點可能不同現在可能比較會先要先處理的事情是關於減班休息這個企業如果發生減班休息的話我們怎麼如何因應來支持勞工那剛剛廖委員說的安心及時上工我們其實也做了相關的盤點"},{"start":901.585,"end":919.951,"text":"可是這部分比較是要來創造比較多的公部門的就業的機會來容納失業的勞工那這個部分我們已經做相關的盤點了可是它的實施的時間點可能會跟請問你們現在盤點的時程跟這個規模有沒有反映到現在即將可能來臨的這是第一件事我們現在的工具都已經做了盤點了"},{"start":920.911,"end":945.212,"text":"現在是來看哪一個工具不同的適合的時間點我現在提出這兩個具體的要求請您回去研議這兩件事第二個是長年有的請你擴大它的人數和它的規模那再請你們提供一份報告給本席班好 謝謝廖偉祥委員的資訊麻煩請行政院將廖偉祥委員所取的資料交給偉祥辦公室謝謝卓院長 謝謝勞動部長備詢我們現在休息五分鐘"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":485,"blocks":[["廖委員偉翔：（16時24分）謝謝主席，有請卓院長。"],["主席：麻煩再請卓院長備詢。"],["卓院長榮泰：廖委員好！"],["廖委員偉翔：院長好！院長辛苦喔！"],["卓院長榮泰：不會。"],["廖委員偉翔：院長，第一題我想要請問一下，有關明年度各級學校寒假與農曆春假中間有三天，你可以看一下這個簡報上面，有2月11日到2月13日這個空窗期，馬上又接著是農曆過年，所以這個事情其實有很多的家長抱怨，大家都覺得學校這樣子的放假安排很荒謬，行程的規劃會大亂，返鄉的車票也不好買，最重要的是孩子學習的連貫性也是一個問題，更不要忘記冬季還是流感的流行季，很多公衛的學者也說盡量不要進行大規模的人流移動，也可能造成醫療體系的負荷。所以院長您看到這個狀況是不是可以體諒跟理解家長、老師和醫療體系他們相關的擔憂，因為休假的部分行政部門應該可以修改相關的規則，可不可以請院長在這部分體諒一下學生和這些家長們相關的擔憂？"],["卓院長榮泰：確實因為明年春節的時間，變成有一天的補假會產生問題，我如果沒有記錯的話好像是二二八這一天，二二八這一天如果補假，會變成沒有放假又要補假……"],["廖委員偉翔：所以院長，我是希望……"],["卓院長榮泰：重點在大年初四這一天。"],["廖委員偉翔：對，我是希望這個部分您是不是可以去調整？有非常多的家長在反映。"],["卓院長榮泰：有，春節連假當中的這一天我們有注意到，今天……"],["廖委員偉翔：這三天有空窗期，再請院長是不是回去研議一下，看怎麼調整，讓它連貫在一起……"],["卓院長榮泰：稍微能夠調一下，這個要跟教育單位去討論。"],["廖委員偉翔：對，所以請院長……"],["卓院長榮泰：謝謝委員的提醒。"],["廖委員偉翔：再來，我想要請教一下院長，你有沒有看過美國白宮經濟顧問委員會的主席米倫在入閣前他提出的報告中有一項計畫？也就是簡報的左邊，這其實就是現在的海湖莊園協議，他提到把關稅作為談判工具，目的是要迫逼其他國家升值他們的匯率，並購買美國國債，最終讓美元大幅貶值，這份計畫就是所謂的海湖莊園協議。裡面也提到，經過一連串的懲罰性關稅之後，貿易夥伴更容易接受以某種形式的貨幣協議來換取降低關稅。現在其實很多人、幾乎所有的財經學者都在說，這個海湖莊園協議其實就是廣場協議2.0的版本，這個海湖莊園協議裡面還有一個核心理念，院長請聽一下，就是美國提供軍事保護，貿易夥伴需要付出的代價包含：配合美國，讓貨幣升值，以換取美元貶值，然後購買低利率的超長期美國國債，來減輕美國的債務壓力。這聽起來很瘋狂，可是其實很符合川普覺得盟友應該為美國軍事保護買單，以及不喜歡美元太強的概念。","根據上面的內容以及相關的報導，商周也說，其實臺灣對美國來講可以說是夢幻客戶，有幾個條件臺灣都滿足，第一個，我們高度仰賴美國市場；第二個，需要美國的保護；第三個，也深怕美國視我們是匯率操縱國，所以也被認為我們在這個談判中很快會妥協。院長，在這部分也很巧，行政院5月1號的時候稱臺美完成首輪磋商，隔天5月2號匯率就大升值，因此根據前面所說的，我想大家最想問的就是，究竟我們在匯率上面是否跟美國有達成某種協議？"],["卓院長榮泰：5月1號由副院長所領軍的談判團，跟美方的協議談判過程當中，我再次重申，沒有涉及任何的匯率問題。"],["廖委員偉翔：好，我知道，我有看你們這兩天的說法，基本上您跟楊金龍總裁還有賴清德總統都說沒有涉及到匯率，可是我從上述的幾個論證、幾個事件告訴你，其實很難讓民眾相信啦！因為這麼巧，就在這個時候臺幣的匯率暴升，不過我想追問，目前你們說沒有，請問未來是否會將匯率跟這個超長期的低利率美國國債當成談判籌碼之一，以換取低關稅以及美國提供的軍事保護？"],["卓院長榮泰：目前談判的內容當然我們不便對外說，我們有說明現在談判的內容就是在對等關稅……"],["廖委員偉翔：所以你沒辦法講說是不是籌碼？"],["卓院長榮泰：對等關稅、非關稅貿易障礙、出口管制、經濟安全等等，這是這個。"],["廖委員偉翔：那也就是說，您不排除把這兩項當成是未來的籌碼之一？"],["卓院長榮泰：這個說法我早上說過，不能這麼武斷的說排除、不排除，還沒有發生的事情……"],["廖委員偉翔：還沒發生就是不排除，院長，其實應該就是這樣啦！"],["卓院長榮泰：就關稅跟非關稅貿易障礙、出國管制，還有經濟安全來討論。"],["廖委員偉翔：院長，我要提醒你，你剛剛這句話其實算是避重就輕。"],["卓院長榮泰：沒有，你不能這樣解讀。"],["廖委員偉翔：因為你剛剛說不能夠排除嘛。"],["卓院長榮泰：我絕對沒有這樣的意思。"],["廖委員偉翔：其實簡單來講，你是說不能排除，好，沒關係。我想要跟院長說的是，在1985年的廣場協議之後，其實可以看到日本的下場，就是失落的30年，不管是經濟、房地產或者是產業外移，所以其實有這次的前車之鑑，你可以看到，美日談判的時候日本首相強硬地表示，不會為了協議犧牲日本的利益。我這裡要再請院長說明，因為你剛剛還是沒有辦法講清楚，我還是希望站在國家利益，不要一味地妥協、不要短視，應該為了我們國家長遠的利益著想，不要讓海湖莊園協議變成臺灣的廣場協議2.0，好嗎？"],["卓院長榮泰：這個總統在聲明當中已經說過了，他會爭取國家的利益，他也不會放過任何一個產業。"],["廖委員偉翔：院長，但是我跟你講，前後這樣子講起來，其實以上不管執政團隊有沒有談或者是有沒有把它變成是未來的籌碼之一，民眾有沒有相信……"],["卓院長榮泰：委員，我們在這裡要對國人做一個正面的宣示，就是談判的過程沒有匯率。"],["廖委員偉翔：院長，你先聽我講完，我現在沒有在講這個，我現在要告訴你，不管到底有沒有，我也都相信你們講的話，但是現在的重點、事實擺在眼前的是，還沒變成籌碼之一，我們臺幣就已經迅速升值，所以我想要請教院長，在臺幣迅速升值跟關稅的雙夾擊之下，對於我國出口產業的短期衝擊和長期衝擊是什麼？請教院長。"],["卓院長榮泰：最近一週以來，臺幣強勁的升值，當然對我們的產業造成相當大的衝擊，現在包括央行，也從過去穩定貨幣的相關政策底下，我們持續地加強各種觀察。"],["廖委員偉翔：院長，所以你曉得短期衝擊是什麼嗎？您可以舉幾個例子嗎？"],["卓院長榮泰：我說的是這個禮拜以來，從上個禮拜到現在。"],["廖委員偉翔：我是說針對匯率急速升值這件事情，照理說應該已經要評估了吧！好，沒關係，院長，你如果沒有辦法條列式地講出來，我跟你講有幾個衝擊。第一個，毛利率跟獲利縮水，這個很嚴重！部分的代工業和製造業毛利率「一夕轉負」，譬如本來是5%好了，迅速拉升了10%，它就虧錢了，這個單就虧錢了。甚至我們地方上有產業界的龍頭說，他一年出口已經被下訂了5,000個貨櫃，結果迅速升值，可能會虧爆，已經打到見骨。他本來不是出口美國，是歐洲市場，所以他本來沒有想到會這麼嚴重，在連匯率都變成這樣的情況之下，他基本上是被打到見骨，這是第一個跟院長報告的第一個短期衝擊。第二個是現金流跟財務壓力，第三個就是訂單的成本和採購延後，第四個是這些中小企業避險的成本跟他們要操作的難度拉高，大企業可能還可以，小企業就很辛苦。還有，同業競爭力跟市場地位，臺灣廠商在價格優勢上迅速被侵蝕，這五個是短期衝擊。","再來，長期衝擊，長期這樣子維持我們的匯率往上走，院長，我要告訴你的是：第一個，長期它的毛利跟獲利也會持續地壓縮。再來，我們國家的出口量跟訂單會縮減。再來就是我們生產的產地跟供應鏈要重組。最後一個是我們產業結構轉型的壓力。我剛剛問的問題顯示出，院長你們好像對於這個部分並沒有很詳細的評估，這讓我們的中小企業很擔心。"],["卓院長榮泰：委員，你這個非常具學術專業，但是我跟委員報告，央行長期對匯率的掌握，就是定期在做這樣的評估，只是針對這幾天以來的快速上漲，央行昨天已經對外宣布了它的說法。"],["廖委員偉翔：好，我再進一步問您，對於勞工的評估呢？對勞工權益的衝擊呢？"],["卓院長榮泰：當然，我們……"],["廖委員偉翔：因為剛剛講的是產業的部分，接下來最重要、我們最關心的，也就是我們的勞工。"],["卓院長榮泰：當然，我們產業支持不下去的時候，勞工失業的狀況就可能會發生。"],["廖委員偉翔：是，所以我們其實現在很擔心這個，我剛剛也苦口婆心在問的就是，看到目前為止，關稅之外，對於匯率的雙重夾擊，行政院好像並沒有去做一個很詳盡的評估。"],["卓院長榮泰：剛剛已經說了。"],["廖委員偉翔：這個是讓我們很擔心的。"],["卓院長榮泰：央行長期以來就定期在做這些評估，你又說沒有評估，這不對啊！"],["廖委員偉翔：院長，我跟你報告，其實這個題目上周二牛煦庭委員也問了，他問你們關稅以外，有沒有做匯率衝擊的評估，其實你們那時候的回答就是沒有，過了一個禮拜之後也是這樣！"],["卓院長榮泰：我的回答一樣，央行都有定期來報告相關的內容。昨天央行已經對外說了……"],["廖委員偉翔：沒關係，我們不吵這個，我們要點出嚴重性，所以想要問你，其實現在美國市場，簡單來講，我們衝擊很大，本來美國的關稅是第一個衝擊，再來就是匯率提升衝擊出口商等等，然後是國人的就業問題，還有一些所謂的上市公司股利，有一些股民的權益也可能會受到影響。我上次在質詢的時候也說，這一次4,100億的預算裡面，針對農工產業的補助是930億，我認為遠遠不夠，而對於勞權的部分則是150億。針對這個部分，我想要請院長，剛剛講到衝擊評估，第一個、是不是可以請院長儘速將關於關稅以及匯率雙重夾擊之下的不同情境，有個比較嚴謹的評估報告交給本席？包含有沒有辦法維穩在1比30左右，如果掉到1比20或是1比25會發生什麼事情，以及受衝擊的產業規模跟勞工人數，這是我們現在關心的事情，要拜託院長。另外，外界也普遍認為新臺幣維持在1比30，是心理跟經濟的雙重關卡，如果守不住的話，恐怕不只是無薪假的問題，也可能引發大規模的失業。以中部的關鍵產業──工具機來講，2024年工具機產業產值已經比2014年下滑了65%，可是今年又遇到這樣的匯率升值很可能會團滅，很擔心會有大量的倒閉潮。張忠謀董事長曾經說過，新臺幣兌美元如果升值1%，他們的營業利益率就會減少0.4%，甚至有一些關於上市櫃公司的評估指出，可能縮減7.5%。我講的這些詳細數據是一些金融行業估出來的，我們最擔心的就是最終無薪假跟裁員潮來臨。因為你們上次是編930億，支持勞工150億，可是同時拿了1,500億來做所謂的韌性，但是我們在看的時候認為，跟所謂的關稅、匯率及民生的關連不大，我覺得這1,500億是不是應該回歸公務總預算裡面，把這1,500億立即注入跟勞工、產業有關的急迫需求？本席的具體建議包含勞工的部分，勞動部長也上來了，其實我很擔心的是這個。我具體建議的是，我們希望勞工權益在這4,100億裡面的比例可以加高，包含著什麼？包含產業的部分就是金融支持，因為現在已經不只是對美出口基期的問題，你上次說是10%基期的問題，但現在已經不只是這個部分，而是全部出口產業，所以這部分也要滾動調整，要請院長回去研議，金融支持的部分要加大。第二個、勞動的部分，我們希望可以增加勞工權益，就是安心即時上工。這個東西可以請部長……因為過去在疫情期間是有這樣子的支持，但現在還有一定的程序要走，由於它不是常態性的，所以這個部分是不是可以請院長和部長回去儘速研議？"],["洪部長申翰：我跟廖委員說明，其實過去有的相關就業工具，我們都已經盤點，也都已經做相關的準備了，可是每一個工具要實施，適合的時間點可能不同，所以現在比較要先處理的事情是關於減班休息，企業如果發生減班休息，我們如何因應來支持勞工。剛剛廖委員說的安心即時上工，我們其實也做了相關的盤點，可是這部分是要創造比較多公部門的就業機會來容納失業勞工。"],["廖委員偉翔：是啊！"],["洪部長申翰：這個部分我們已經做相關的盤點了，可是實施的時間點可能會跟……"],["廖委員偉翔：請問你們現在盤點的時程跟規模有沒有反映到即將可能來臨的，這是第一件事。"],["洪部長申翰：我們現在的工具都已經做了盤點，現在是來看哪一個工具不同的、適合的時間點。"],["廖委員偉翔：部長，時間有限。我現在提出這兩個具體的要求，請您回去研議這兩件事。第二個是長年有的，請你擴大它的人數和規模，再請你們提供一份報告給本席辦公室。"],["洪部長申翰：可以，謝謝。"],["廖委員偉翔：好，謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝廖偉翔委員的質詢，麻煩請行政院將廖委員索取的資料交給廖偉翔委員辦公室。謝謝卓院長，謝謝勞動部長備詢。","現在休息5分鐘。","休息（16時39分）","繼續開會（16時45分）"],["主席：報告院會，我們繼續開會。","接下來請陳菁徽委員質詢，林淑芬委員請準備。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":218,"meet_id":"院會-11-3-10","speakers":["韓國瑜","江啟臣","陳超明","黃建賓","魯明哲","顏寬恒","陳玉珍","林倩綺","林沛祥","黃國昌","林國成","李昆澤","林月琴","賴士葆","黃秀芳","王正旭","盧縣一","李彥秀","楊曜","麥玉珍","廖偉翔","陳菁徽","林淑芬","馬文君","邱若華","蘇巧慧"],"page_start":117,"meetingDate":["2025-05-06"],"gazette_id":"1144201","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1144201_00004","1144201_00005"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期第10次會議紀錄","content":"施政質詢\n對行政院院長提出施政方針及施政報告繼續質詢─ 詢答完畢─","agenda_id":"1144201_00004"}}}