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00:00:37,092\n部長大家都很關心這個勞保的這個基金的問題喔至少我個人也很擔心但我想到說大家覺得說領的越來越多繳費的越來越少可是那我就認真的看了一下新一個世代投入職場\n\n3\n00:00:38,112 --> 00:00:54,524\n然後現在有在繳保費的我都很好奇那一年他的出生的人口是多少那我就假設是25歲好了因為大學畢業嘛22歲23歲那今年2025年我就看了一下2020年你知道那一年出生的小孩出生的小孩有幾個嗎大概\n\n4\n00:00:57,907 --> 00:01:08,192\n十幾萬我告訴你你會嚇一跳我看了也嚇一跳2020年出生的小孩有30萬5千3百12個你知道去年剩下13萬4千8百56個我這個是統計這絕對不是後面寫的人口統計\n\n5\n00:01:23,117 --> 00:01:28,839\n2000年是三十萬五千三百一十二個那個時候就在講說人口少子化危機2000年大家講說現在這繳的少三十萬人還叫繳的少嗎\n\n6\n00:01:48,507 --> 00:02:08,328\n但如果再找一個數字相較於1982年那一年出生的小孩有40萬個我就找40萬的40萬掉到30萬2000年其實在2000年已經就掉到30萬了2000年是因為農年再加上2000年\n\n7\n00:02:09,349 --> 00:02:38,129\n那為什麼講這個是從40萬人掉到30萬人花了18年的時間少掉了25%四分之一的人口數那個時候我們就說這個勞保的財務危機了勞保的財務危機可是你知道從2000年然後掉到再少四分之一就財務危機少三分之一是幾年多快的速度嗎\n\n8\n00:02:40,174 --> 00:02:44,215\n5年2005年出生數剩下20萬5854人2005年短短5年的時間又減10萬他不是10萬是3分之1再來對跟跟花多少的時間對30萬變成要變15萬這樣兇兇落來\n\n9\n00:03:11,659 --> 00:03:27,160\n這個速度也是非常的快如果不要講一個特殊的年是2010年的話其實就是2021年20年他從30萬掉到剩15萬二分之一所以2000年為界\n\n10\n00:03:28,061 --> 00:03:55,160\n他到2020年掉了二分之一如果少了四分之一就是財務危機那那麼快的速度下墜到三分之一就少了三分之一然後再更快的速度二十年時間少了二分之一那我現在講這個勞保的財務危機大家都知道開源節流開源怎麼開源啊費率法定費率工具用完了剩下幾%現在費率多少%\n\n11\n00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:03,543\n法定費率最高到多少法定費率沒有修法的話緊繃啊天花板到了沒有開圓的工具了那我們再打開投保薪資的天花板投保薪資天花板是要開到多高啊\n\n12\n00:04:24,090 --> 00:04:33,944\n你少掉了二分之一的人耶如果再跟四十萬的人口來講那個不是二分之一四十萬變成十五萬耶這裡打多開也開不了\n\n13\n00:04:40,031 --> 00:04:50,883\n大家都知道這個不是結構不結構入不敷出已經沒有任何的手段可以再繼續開源了好去年2024年這個政府撥補1300億投資收益的創新高1595億的投資收益\n\n14\n00:05:02,111 --> 00:05:07,053\n也是一樣入不敷出前年2023年政府撥補550億投資收益1100億那是死好呢那是死壞你投資收益很壞的要安住\n\n15\n00:05:19,201 --> 00:05:36,449\n所以在這種狀況裡面我們看你們的精算報告這次的精算報告也出來了去年的勞保收支還短差665億這個已經是連續8年這個逆差大家都知道我剛才剩下人口數給你聽你會怕死啊\n\n16\n00:05:37,669 --> 00:05:51,957\n潛藏的負債不要講啊這個從變成14兆就不要講收不抵資也不用再講了惡化也不用再講政府如何加大力道我想喔啊一樣啦已經撥不到1300億啦你是要怎麼加大力道啦還可以多大啦然後這個到底是怎麼怎麼辦喔你把年紀想起來頭皮會發麻捏頭皮真的會發麻欸\n\n17\n00:06:09,015 --> 00:06:21,890\n這個人口就是牽動這個退休這個勞保基金最重要的變數這個人口結構這麼大的變化大家都知道人口危機是國安危機可是就是在這裡那勞保的普通事故啊因濟保費在這個\n\n18\n00:06:30,407 --> 00:06:35,910\n投保人數就是現在還是40萬的人在繳費的現在繳費的應該都是一年生40萬的人在繳費的吧今年是40萬人那個世代的人在繳費的啦今年是30萬跟20萬的還沒到職場啦\n\n19\n00:06:53,325 --> 00:07:00,129\n那是更恐怖的啦一年才有40萬的離開的人現在在投保可是光是這樣子2021年投保人數從1074萬到去年已經下降到1048萬少了26萬了那勞保普通事故因紀的保險費是4881億但實際保險的給付已經高達5546.3億元\n\n20\n00:07:22,563 --> 00:07:49,966\n所以這樣的撥補是撥補我們是很輕盈的但是就不是辦法那這種這麼大的人口結構的問題之下這個我的助理叫我跟你們大家講雖然我也不曉得我認不認同但他們都選擇不婚不生快樂一生但是這樣下去他們覺得不婚不生的人也要貧窮一生了啊\n\n21\n00:07:51,721 --> 00:07:54,164\n然後呢我要再問你一個很嚴肅的課題喔勞保分得這麼大勞保可以賺嗎你說政府付不付最終責任沒有重要啊全部所有的人口的一半一千萬全部都是在這個社會保險裡面\n\n22\n00:08:08,797 --> 00:08:30,933\n都不會負你的責任,政府不會負你的責任,你能夠一個盡權,所有人都不會負你的責任所以這不是重點,要不要負最終責任,現在是政府要怎麼負最終責任啊再來另外一個問題是,你知道有多少的受僱者或是多少的人,他的老年經濟的安全,老年經濟安全\n\n23\n00:08:33,393 --> 00:09:02,495\n真的都沒搞吃得老的時候都仰賴勞保的月退再充當他的這個勉強度餘生的棺材本啦我說這個很務實的又很現實的喔不要說勞退喔勞退沒多少錢啦都仰賴勞保主要的經濟老年經濟來源仰賴勞保的比例有多高你告訴我\n\n24\n00:09:09,292 --> 00:09:21,902\n各位報告喔我們對勞工的老年經濟保障還是希望他們跟世界...不要講你的希望我現在要問你現實面真正的現實面台灣有多少人他退休之後所有的收入所有經濟的來源他生活都靠而已去報這個月退多少人你跟我說啦\n\n25\n00:09:35,168 --> 00:09:49,296\n不過勞保目前的家保人口是一千多萬嘛那但是在勞退那邊也有七百多萬啦所以是我在問什麼你在回答什麼我問東你答西王店員你不知道喔\n\n26\n00:09:52,433 --> 00:10:18,039\n數字上面我可能可以我們要再去確認我告訴你大概全台灣沒有人可以講得出一個數字因為沒有人敢面對沒有人敢調查也大家都烏著眼睛都不要去想不要去想但是我跟你說喔就如我剛才一開始就講的現在的年輕人不要問我們上一代的現在要捏錢的啦多少人仰賴這個勞保月退再當生活費的啦\n\n27\n00:10:18,817 --> 00:10:19,918\n因為他沒有能力去為自己的老年經濟做準備養小孩繳房貸他在養上一代\n\n28\n00:10:37,675 --> 00:10:51,922\n別說他問我們自己啦大家各位在座的各位有幾個人你繳了房貸養了小孩然後給父母生活背後你還有能力為你自己的老年經濟安全有餘裕做準備的這個小孩我說很輕鬆的喔\n\n29\n00:10:56,294 --> 00:11:07,052\n我坐著一眼望去多少人都仰賴勞保的月退當生活開支的唯一財源這個問題很嚴重\n\n30\n00:11:12,714 --> 00:11:37,746\n我也不知道要怎麼問所以不能破產的但是我現在要跟你講你是政府你再怎麼逃再怎麼躲躲不了撥補是好事但撥補也解決不了漲保費漲保費也沒辦法手段工具都用清了沒有可以再上漲的空間了\n\n31\n00:11:38,956 --> 00:11:48,827\n打開天花板,天花板進去繳,收入也有限現在未來是怎樣?我再說一個問題,你不要去思考過不?不對,AI的時代來了AI的時代來了\n\n32\n00:11:55,129 --> 00:12:14,522\n三年五年整個社會整個世界都就長得不一樣AI的速度之快啊讓這個社會可能三年就多一輪啊多一輪啊所以那個對勞動市場最大的衝擊是什麼大家都覺得失業啊被替代啊然後來了\n\n33\n00:12:16,519 --> 00:12:42,362\n你就要勞保基金的改革說那我們不能開源我們節流叫啊大家啊你要比較少的就已經很少了要給他少要不然就看我而已全世界都在把退休的年齡往後延可是我想AI時代來這是一個很殘忍很殘酷的打擊來了因為可能會很多人力被替代掉而會有大量的過剩的勞動力\n\n34\n00:12:44,491 --> 00:13:00,766\n所以如果大家全世界來講說要領年金的年齡往後延那並不是基於並不是基於勞動力需求而已並不是基於勞動力需求的短缺恐怕真正的殘酷是基於\n\n35\n00:13:02,422 --> 00:13:12,089\n老年幾戶的這個基金不夠所以這叫大家都不能退休不能退休問題是沒頭腦啊AI時代來了勞動力大量的勞動力過剩人力被取代這樣要怎麼做你們有沒有想過AI時代對整個就業市場勞動力市場的衝擊除了失業以外還會有什麼影響保證你們有想過嗎\n\n36\n00:13:30,892 --> 00:13:55,318\n確實這個AI技術的滲透率越來越高其實現在其實在很多面向看起來都會對於整體的勞動環境會造成影響像是我想維恩其實也一直很關注這個問題不是啦我在講跟我們這個勞保基金有關的啦對於整個勞動力市場就業人口除了失業還有可能會產生什麼影響\n\n37\n00:13:57,375 --> 00:14:07,243\n失業保費繳的人就少了然後人類可能會更長壽更長壽以後活得越久領得越多活得越久領的人越多這個是這個社會保險會瓦解不是會瓦解是將近崩潰\n\n38\n00:14:20,629 --> 00:14:36,443\n不只是勞保還有健保所幸喔勞保不是唯一的那我再不要忘了我們現在移工我們的移工我們現在83萬的移工都在繳保費但是第14年以後不准他們領退休欸\n\n39\n00:14:41,223 --> 00:14:48,948\n嘿所以我們的政策都卡在第14年欸我們是用這種殘忍的手段欸可是這種手段會不會有一天在國際勞工的組織裡面這種公約裡面要求台灣不能再這樣子下去或是人家提告到國際法庭去提告覺得我們這種管制手段都叫人搬移\n\n40\n00:15:07,773 --> 00:15:11,980\n這樣而已要安坐你做政府的有太重嗎這問題很嚴重的所以在這種狀況裡面\n\n41\n00:15:20,117 --> 00:15:43,871\n這個我如果沒有必要又沒有感覺你如果必要我們在講這個社會保險這個問題你知道2023年OECD和G20的國家年金統計調查了42個國家除了冰島墨西哥美國和G20的印尼四國以外這個四國不要談了其餘各國和我國的勞保性質相近的就是確定給複製的\n\n42\n00:15:46,312 --> 00:16:06,184\n這些國家的提存基金的比例都是100%以上印尼沒有啦印尼是97%啦各國當中最低的是冰島雖然也曾經破產過但他們年金制度的提存基金比例也有28啦但是不要講這個冰島這比較特殊這個\n\n43\n00:16:10,586 --> 00:16:18,898\n但是在我國2021年的精算報告勞保的已提存的基金比例是幾%我國的6.19%人家都100%\n\n44\n00:16:27,657 --> 00:16:48,178\n好沒關係因為可能制度上有一點差異不一樣但是但是這個這個也是我們可以走的方向可是就人口結構惡化成這個樣子連確定確定幾副字能不能夠適應在未來的改革能不能這樣子都還是一個問號啊\n\n45\n00:16:50,652 --> 00:16:59,159\n確定第一波是已經負債這麼多了確定幾副你們有沒有評估過從13萬40萬變成30萬就已經這麼大的財務危機啊30萬變成13萬確定確定幾副字真的也提得出來嗎可以100%嗎你們有評估過嗎這是現在當然現在是這是制度上面的設計\n\n46\n00:17:19,315 --> 00:17:36,990\n不是啦政府的功能和角色就國安的危機當然就是未雨綢繆要先試算20年後的危機那我們才能知道怎麼因應而現在我告訴你不管開源或節流所有的手段工具都用竊了沒了沒了然後我就想政府你要想大家都覺得在這裡修法要修什麼啊\n\n47\n00:17:47,611 --> 00:18:16,430\n再降低給付再延長這個退休這一些都不是工具了我們過去想像的工具都已經不是工具了更何況AI時代來了所以部長這個是很嚴肅的而且是我相信對勞動部而言你們真的還必須要重新嚴肅的去思考的事過去以後我們確定提撥制變成確定給付制就好了\n\n48\n00:18:18,231 --> 00:18:28,817\n我們確定給父子的愛歡樂人口突然間人的越來越多五十萬的世代人要再活一年四十萬人的那個世代人要再活一年四十萬人的那個世代人要再活要再生人的越久活的越多現在叫的是一年四十三萬的時侯要安寧\n\n49\n00:18:42,250 --> 00:19:00,807\n人家去叫你我就確定幾副付得出來嗎所以這個知識體大啦我只能在這裡與眾欣賞的在跟大家講一個最殘酷現實我今天要講一個重點不管開源或節流所有的工具都用完了\n\n50\n00:19:02,251 --> 00:19:12,220\n幾乎都沒辦法我們可以想像的勞保的改革手段的工具沒了這是很嚴重的事情好謝謝\n\n51\n00:19:21,565 --> 00:19:25,947\n因為你們不知道說多少勞工仰賴勞保的老年給付剛好你們自己有一個勞工生活及就業狀況調查113年度調查勞工退休後的生活費的來源目前沒有規劃的人28%有規劃的72%但有規劃的裡面仰賴勞保老年給付和勞工退休金的高達四成四所以44加28等於72%都算了\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n7346\t10254\t好 謝謝主席 是不是還是請我們洪部長\n16605\t37092\t部長大家都很關心這個勞保的這個基金的問題喔至少我個人也很擔心但我想到說大家覺得說領的越來越多繳費的越來越少可是那我就認真的看了一下新一個世代投入職場\n38112\t54524\t然後現在有在繳保費的我都很好奇那一年他的出生的人口是多少那我就假設是25歲好了因為大學畢業嘛22歲23歲那今年2025年我就看了一下2020年你知道那一年出生的小孩出生的小孩有幾個嗎大概\n57907\t68192\t十幾萬我告訴你你會嚇一跳我看了也嚇一跳2020年出生的小孩有30萬5千3百12個你知道去年剩下13萬4千8百56個我這個是統計這絕對不是後面寫的人口統計\n83117\t88839\t2000年是三十萬五千三百一十二個那個時候就在講說人口少子化危機2000年大家講說現在這繳的少三十萬人還叫繳的少嗎\n108507\t128328\t但如果再找一個數字相較於1982年那一年出生的小孩有40萬個我就找40萬的40萬掉到30萬 2000年其實在2000年已經就掉到30萬了2000年是因為農年再加上2000年\n129349\t158129\t那為什麼講這個是從40萬人掉到30萬人花了18年的時間少掉了25%四分之一的人口數那個時候我們就說這個勞保的財務危機了勞保的財務危機可是你知道從2000年然後掉到再少四分之一就財務危機少三分之一是幾年多快的速度嗎\n160174\t164215\t5年2005年出生數剩下20萬5854人2005年短短5年的時間又減10萬他不是10萬是3分之1再來對 跟 跟花多少的時間對30萬變成要變15萬這樣 兇兇落來\n191659\t207160\t這個速度也是非常的快如果不要講一個特殊的年是2010年的話其實就是2021年20年他從30萬掉到剩15萬二分之一所以2000年為界\n208061\t235160\t他到2020年掉了二分之一如果少了四分之一就是財務危機那那麼快的速度下墜到三分之一就少了三分之一然後再更快的速度二十年時間少了二分之一那我現在講這個勞保的財務危機大家都知道開源節流 開源怎麼開源啊費率 法定費率工具用完了 剩下幾%現在費率多少%\n238160\t243543\t法定費率最高到多少法定費率沒有修法的話 緊繃啊天花板到了 沒有開圓的工具了那我們再打開投保薪資的天花板投保薪資天花板是要開到多高啊\n264090\t273944\t你少掉了二分之一的人耶如果再跟四十萬的人口來講那個不是二分之一四十萬變成十五萬耶這裡打多開也開不了\n280031\t290883\t大家都知道 這個不是結構不結構 入不敷出 已經沒有任何的手段可以再繼續開源了好 去年2024年 這個政府撥補1300億 投資收益的創新高1595億的投資收益\n302111\t307053\t也是一樣入不敷出前年2023年政府撥補550億投資收益1100億那是死好呢那是死壞 你投資收益很壞的要安住\n319201\t336449\t所以在這種狀況裡面 我們看你們的精算報告這次的精算報告也出來了去年的勞保收支還短差665億這個已經是連續8年這個逆差 大家都知道我剛才剩下人口數給你聽 你會怕死啊\n337669\t351957\t潛藏的負債不要講啊 這個從變成14兆就不要講收不抵資也不用再講了 惡化也不用再講政府如何加大力道 我想喔啊 一樣啦 已經撥不到1300億啦 你是要怎麼加大力道啦還可以多大啦然後 這個到底是怎麼 怎麼辦喔你把年紀想起來 頭皮會發麻捏頭皮真的會發麻欸\n369015\t381890\t這個人口就是牽動這個退休這個勞保基金最重要的變數這個人口結構這麼大的變化大家都知道人口危機是國安危機可是就是在這裡那勞保的普通事故啊因濟保費在這個\n390407\t395910\t投保人數就是現在還是40萬的人在繳費的現在繳費的應該都是一年生40萬的人在繳費的吧今年是40萬人那個世代的人在繳費的啦今年是30萬跟20萬的還沒到職場啦\n413325\t420129\t那是更恐怖的啦一年才有40萬的離開的人現在在投保可是光是這樣子2021年投保人數從1074萬到去年已經下降到1048萬少了26萬了那勞保普通事故因紀的保險費是4881億但實際保險的給付已經高達5546.3億元\n442563\t469966\t所以這樣的撥補是撥補我們是很輕盈的但是就不是辦法那這種這麼大的人口結構的問題之下這個我的助理叫我跟你們大家講雖然我也不曉得我認不認同但他們都選擇不婚不生快樂一生但是這樣下去他們覺得不婚不生的人也要貧窮一生了啊\n471721\t474164\t然後呢 我要再問你一個很嚴肅的課題喔勞保分得這麼大 勞保可以賺嗎你說政府付不付 最終責任沒有重要啊全部所有的人口的一半 一千萬全部都是在這個社會保險裡面\n488797\t510933\t都不會負你的責任,政府不會負你的責任,你能夠一個盡權,所有人都不會負你的責任所以這不是重點,要不要負最終責任,現在是政府要怎麼負最終責任啊再來另外一個問題是,你知道有多少的受僱者或是多少的人,他的老年經濟的安全,老年經濟安全\n513393\t542495\t真的都沒搞 吃得老的時候都仰賴勞保的月退再充當他的這個勉強度餘生的棺材本啦我說這個很務實的 又很現實的喔不要說勞退喔 勞退沒多少錢啦都仰賴勞保主要的經濟 老年經濟來源仰賴勞保的比例有多高 你告訴我\n549292\t561902\t各位報告喔 我們對勞工的老年經濟保障還是希望他們跟世界...不要講你的希望 我現在要問你現實面 真正的現實面台灣有多少人 他退休之後所有的收入所有經濟的來源 他生活都靠而已去報這個月退多少人 你跟我說啦\n575168\t589296\t不過勞保目前的家保人口是一千多萬嘛那但是在勞退那邊也有七百多萬啦所以是 我在問什麼 你在回答什麼我問東你答西 王店員你不知道喔\n592433\t618039\t數字上面我可能可以我們要再去確認我告訴你大概全台灣沒有人可以講得出一個數字因為沒有人敢面對沒有人敢調查也大家都烏著眼睛都不要去想不要去想但是我跟你說喔就如我剛才一開始就講的現在的年輕人不要問我們上一代的現在要捏錢的啦多少人仰賴這個勞保月退再當生活費的啦\n618817\t619918\t因為他沒有能力去為自己的老年經濟做準備養小孩繳房貸他在養上一代\n637675\t651922\t別說他問我們自己啦大家各位在座的各位有幾個人你繳了房貸養了小孩然後給父母生活背後你還有能力為你自己的老年經濟安全有餘裕做準備的這個小孩我說很輕鬆的喔\n656294\t667052\t我坐著一眼望去 多少人都仰賴勞保的月退當生活開支的唯一財源這個問題很嚴重\n672714\t697746\t我也不知道要怎麼問 所以不能破產的但是我現在要跟你講 你是政府 你再怎麼逃 再怎麼躲 躲不了撥補是好事 但撥補也解決不了漲保費 漲保費也沒辦法 手段工具都用清了沒有可以再上漲的空間了\n698956\t708827\t打開天花板,天花板進去繳,收入也有限現在未來是怎樣?我再說一個問題,你不要去思考過不?不對,AI的時代來了AI的時代來了\n715129\t734522\t三年五年整個社會整個世界都就長得不一樣AI的速度之快啊讓這個社會可能三年就多一輪啊多一輪啊所以那個對勞動市場最大的衝擊是什麼大家都覺得失業啊被替代啊然後來了\n736519\t762362\t你就要勞保基金的改革 說那我們不能開源 我們節流叫啊 大家啊 你要比較少的就已經很少了 要給他少 要不然就看我而已全世界都在把退休的年齡往後延可是我想AI時代來這是一個很殘忍 很殘酷的打擊來了因為可能會很多人力被替代掉而會有大量的過剩的勞動力\n764491\t780766\t所以如果大家全世界來講說要領年金的年齡往後延那並不是基於並不是基於勞動力需求而已並不是基於勞動力需求的短缺恐怕真正的殘酷是基於\n782422\t792089\t老年幾戶的這個基金不夠所以這叫大家都不能退休不能退休問題是沒頭腦啊AI時代來了勞動力大量的勞動力過剩人力被取代這樣要怎麼做你們有沒有想過AI時代對整個就業市場勞動力市場的衝擊除了失業以外還會有什麼影響保證你們有想過嗎\n810892\t835318\t確實這個AI技術的滲透率越來越高其實現在其實在很多面向看起來都會對於整體的勞動環境會造成影響像是我想維恩其實也一直很關注這個問題不是啦我在講跟我們這個勞保基金有關的啦對於整個勞動力市場就業人口除了失業還有可能會產生什麼影響\n837375\t847243\t失業保費繳的人就少了然後人類可能會更長壽更長壽以後活得越久領得越多活得越久領的人越多這個是這個社會保險會瓦解不是會瓦解是將近崩潰\n860629\t876443\t不只是勞保還有健保 所幸喔 勞保不是唯一的那我再 不要忘了 我們現在移工我們的移工 我們現在83萬的移工都在繳保費 但是第14年以後不准他們領退休欸\n881223\t888948\t嘿 所以我們的政策都卡在第14年欸我們是用這種殘忍的手段欸可是這種手段會不會有一天在國際勞工的組織裡面這種公約裡面要求台灣不能再這樣子下去或是人家提告到國際法庭去提告覺得我們這種管制手段都叫人搬移\n907773\t911980\t這樣而已要安坐你做政府的有太重嗎這問題很嚴重的所以在這種狀況裡面\n920117\t943871\t這個我如果沒有必要又沒有感覺你如果必要我們在講這個社會保險這個問題你知道2023年OECD和G20的國家年金統計調查了42個國家除了冰島墨西哥美國和G20的印尼四國以外這個四國不要談了其餘各國和我國的勞保性質相近的就是確定給複製的\n946312\t966184\t這些國家的提存基金的比例都是100%以上印尼沒有啦 印尼是97%啦各國當中最低的是冰島 雖然也曾經破產過但他們年金制度的提存基金比例也有28啦但是不要講這個冰島 這比較特殊 這個\n970586\t978898\t但是在我國2021年的精算報告勞保的已提存的基金比例是幾%我國的6.19%人家都100%\n987657\t1008178\t好沒關係因為可能制度上有一點差異不一樣但是但是這個這個也是我們可以走的方向可是就人口結構惡化成這個樣子連確定確定幾副字能不能夠適應在未來的改革能不能這樣子都還是一個問號啊\n1010652\t1019159\t確定第一波是已經負債這麼多了確定幾副你們有沒有評估過從13萬40萬變成30萬就已經這麼大的財務危機啊30萬變成13萬確定確定幾副字真的也提得出來嗎可以100%嗎你們有評估過嗎這是現在當然現在是這是制度上面的設計\n1039315\t1056990\t不是啦政府的功能和角色就國安的危機當然就是未雨綢繆要先試算20年後的危機那我們才能知道怎麼因應而現在我告訴你不管開源或節流所有的手段工具都用竊了沒了沒了然後我就想政府你要想大家都覺得在這裡修法要修什麼啊\n1067611\t1096430\t再降低給付再延長這個退休這一些都不是工具了我們過去想像的工具都已經不是工具了更何況AI時代來了所以部長這個是很嚴肅的而且是我相信對勞動部而言你們真的還必須要重新嚴肅的去思考的事過去以後我們確定提撥制變成確定給付制就好了\n1098231\t1108817\t我們確定給父子的愛 歡樂人口突然間 人的越來越多五十萬的世代人要再活一年四十萬人的那個世代人要再活一年四十萬人的那個世代人要再活 要再生人的越久 活的越多現在叫的是一年四十三萬的時侯 要安寧\n1122250\t1140807\t人家去叫你 我就確定幾副 付得出來嗎所以這個知識體大啦 我只能在這裡與眾欣賞的在跟大家講一個最殘酷現實 我今天要講一個重點不管開源或節流 所有的工具都用完了\n1142251\t1152220\t幾乎都沒辦法我們可以想像的勞保的改革手段的工具沒了這是很嚴重的事情好 謝謝\n1161565\t1165947\t因為你們不知道說多少勞工仰賴勞保的老年給付剛好你們自己有一個勞工生活及就業狀況調查113年度調查勞工退休後的生活費的來源目前沒有規劃的人28%有規劃的72%但有規劃的裡面仰賴勞保老年給付和勞工退休金的高達四成四所以44加28等於72%都算了\n1193080\t1194923\t謝謝!謝謝!\n","txt":"好 謝謝主席 是不是還是請我們洪部長\n部長大家都很關心這個勞保的這個基金的問題喔至少我個人也很擔心但我想到說大家覺得說領的越來越多繳費的越來越少可是那我就認真的看了一下新一個世代投入職場\n然後現在有在繳保費的我都很好奇那一年他的出生的人口是多少那我就假設是25歲好了因為大學畢業嘛22歲23歲那今年2025年我就看了一下2020年你知道那一年出生的小孩出生的小孩有幾個嗎大概\n十幾萬我告訴你你會嚇一跳我看了也嚇一跳2020年出生的小孩有30萬5千3百12個你知道去年剩下13萬4千8百56個我這個是統計這絕對不是後面寫的人口統計\n2000年是三十萬五千三百一十二個那個時候就在講說人口少子化危機2000年大家講說現在這繳的少三十萬人還叫繳的少嗎\n但如果再找一個數字相較於1982年那一年出生的小孩有40萬個我就找40萬的40萬掉到30萬 2000年其實在2000年已經就掉到30萬了2000年是因為農年再加上2000年\n那為什麼講這個是從40萬人掉到30萬人花了18年的時間少掉了25%四分之一的人口數那個時候我們就說這個勞保的財務危機了勞保的財務危機可是你知道從2000年然後掉到再少四分之一就財務危機少三分之一是幾年多快的速度嗎\n5年2005年出生數剩下20萬5854人2005年短短5年的時間又減10萬他不是10萬是3分之1再來對 跟 跟花多少的時間對30萬變成要變15萬這樣 兇兇落來\n這個速度也是非常的快如果不要講一個特殊的年是2010年的話其實就是2021年20年他從30萬掉到剩15萬二分之一所以2000年為界\n他到2020年掉了二分之一如果少了四分之一就是財務危機那那麼快的速度下墜到三分之一就少了三分之一然後再更快的速度二十年時間少了二分之一那我現在講這個勞保的財務危機大家都知道開源節流 開源怎麼開源啊費率 法定費率工具用完了 剩下幾%現在費率多少%\n法定費率最高到多少法定費率沒有修法的話 緊繃啊天花板到了 沒有開圓的工具了那我們再打開投保薪資的天花板投保薪資天花板是要開到多高啊\n你少掉了二分之一的人耶如果再跟四十萬的人口來講那個不是二分之一四十萬變成十五萬耶這裡打多開也開不了\n大家都知道 這個不是結構不結構 入不敷出 已經沒有任何的手段可以再繼續開源了好 去年2024年 這個政府撥補1300億 投資收益的創新高1595億的投資收益\n也是一樣入不敷出前年2023年政府撥補550億投資收益1100億那是死好呢那是死壞 你投資收益很壞的要安住\n所以在這種狀況裡面 我們看你們的精算報告這次的精算報告也出來了去年的勞保收支還短差665億這個已經是連續8年這個逆差 大家都知道我剛才剩下人口數給你聽 你會怕死啊\n潛藏的負債不要講啊 這個從變成14兆就不要講收不抵資也不用再講了 惡化也不用再講政府如何加大力道 我想喔啊 一樣啦 已經撥不到1300億啦 你是要怎麼加大力道啦還可以多大啦然後 這個到底是怎麼 怎麼辦喔你把年紀想起來 頭皮會發麻捏頭皮真的會發麻欸\n這個人口就是牽動這個退休這個勞保基金最重要的變數這個人口結構這麼大的變化大家都知道人口危機是國安危機可是就是在這裡那勞保的普通事故啊因濟保費在這個\n投保人數就是現在還是40萬的人在繳費的現在繳費的應該都是一年生40萬的人在繳費的吧今年是40萬人那個世代的人在繳費的啦今年是30萬跟20萬的還沒到職場啦\n那是更恐怖的啦一年才有40萬的離開的人現在在投保可是光是這樣子2021年投保人數從1074萬到去年已經下降到1048萬少了26萬了那勞保普通事故因紀的保險費是4881億但實際保險的給付已經高達5546.3億元\n所以這樣的撥補是撥補我們是很輕盈的但是就不是辦法那這種這麼大的人口結構的問題之下這個我的助理叫我跟你們大家講雖然我也不曉得我認不認同但他們都選擇不婚不生快樂一生但是這樣下去他們覺得不婚不生的人也要貧窮一生了啊\n然後呢 我要再問你一個很嚴肅的課題喔勞保分得這麼大 勞保可以賺嗎你說政府付不付 最終責任沒有重要啊全部所有的人口的一半 一千萬全部都是在這個社會保險裡面\n都不會負你的責任,政府不會負你的責任,你能夠一個盡權,所有人都不會負你的責任所以這不是重點,要不要負最終責任,現在是政府要怎麼負最終責任啊再來另外一個問題是,你知道有多少的受僱者或是多少的人,他的老年經濟的安全,老年經濟安全\n真的都沒搞 吃得老的時候都仰賴勞保的月退再充當他的這個勉強度餘生的棺材本啦我說這個很務實的 又很現實的喔不要說勞退喔 勞退沒多少錢啦都仰賴勞保主要的經濟 老年經濟來源仰賴勞保的比例有多高 你告訴我\n各位報告喔 我們對勞工的老年經濟保障還是希望他們跟世界...不要講你的希望 我現在要問你現實面 真正的現實面台灣有多少人 他退休之後所有的收入所有經濟的來源 他生活都靠而已去報這個月退多少人 你跟我說啦\n不過勞保目前的家保人口是一千多萬嘛那但是在勞退那邊也有七百多萬啦所以是 我在問什麼 你在回答什麼我問東你答西 王店員你不知道喔\n數字上面我可能可以我們要再去確認我告訴你大概全台灣沒有人可以講得出一個數字因為沒有人敢面對沒有人敢調查也大家都烏著眼睛都不要去想不要去想但是我跟你說喔就如我剛才一開始就講的現在的年輕人不要問我們上一代的現在要捏錢的啦多少人仰賴這個勞保月退再當生活費的啦\n因為他沒有能力去為自己的老年經濟做準備養小孩繳房貸他在養上一代\n別說他問我們自己啦大家各位在座的各位有幾個人你繳了房貸養了小孩然後給父母生活背後你還有能力為你自己的老年經濟安全有餘裕做準備的這個小孩我說很輕鬆的喔\n我坐著一眼望去 多少人都仰賴勞保的月退當生活開支的唯一財源這個問題很嚴重\n我也不知道要怎麼問 所以不能破產的但是我現在要跟你講 你是政府 你再怎麼逃 再怎麼躲 躲不了撥補是好事 但撥補也解決不了漲保費 漲保費也沒辦法 手段工具都用清了沒有可以再上漲的空間了\n打開天花板,天花板進去繳,收入也有限現在未來是怎樣?我再說一個問題,你不要去思考過不?不對,AI的時代來了AI的時代來了\n三年五年整個社會整個世界都就長得不一樣AI的速度之快啊讓這個社會可能三年就多一輪啊多一輪啊所以那個對勞動市場最大的衝擊是什麼大家都覺得失業啊被替代啊然後來了\n你就要勞保基金的改革 說那我們不能開源 我們節流叫啊 大家啊 你要比較少的就已經很少了 要給他少 要不然就看我而已全世界都在把退休的年齡往後延可是我想AI時代來這是一個很殘忍 很殘酷的打擊來了因為可能會很多人力被替代掉而會有大量的過剩的勞動力\n所以如果大家全世界來講說要領年金的年齡往後延那並不是基於並不是基於勞動力需求而已並不是基於勞動力需求的短缺恐怕真正的殘酷是基於\n老年幾戶的這個基金不夠所以這叫大家都不能退休不能退休問題是沒頭腦啊AI時代來了勞動力大量的勞動力過剩人力被取代這樣要怎麼做你們有沒有想過AI時代對整個就業市場勞動力市場的衝擊除了失業以外還會有什麼影響保證你們有想過嗎\n確實這個AI技術的滲透率越來越高其實現在其實在很多面向看起來都會對於整體的勞動環境會造成影響像是我想維恩其實也一直很關注這個問題不是啦我在講跟我們這個勞保基金有關的啦對於整個勞動力市場就業人口除了失業還有可能會產生什麼影響\n失業保費繳的人就少了然後人類可能會更長壽更長壽以後活得越久領得越多活得越久領的人越多這個是這個社會保險會瓦解不是會瓦解是將近崩潰\n不只是勞保還有健保 所幸喔 勞保不是唯一的那我再 不要忘了 我們現在移工我們的移工 我們現在83萬的移工都在繳保費 但是第14年以後不准他們領退休欸\n嘿 所以我們的政策都卡在第14年欸我們是用這種殘忍的手段欸可是這種手段會不會有一天在國際勞工的組織裡面這種公約裡面要求台灣不能再這樣子下去或是人家提告到國際法庭去提告覺得我們這種管制手段都叫人搬移\n這樣而已要安坐你做政府的有太重嗎這問題很嚴重的所以在這種狀況裡面\n這個我如果沒有必要又沒有感覺你如果必要我們在講這個社會保險這個問題你知道2023年OECD和G20的國家年金統計調查了42個國家除了冰島墨西哥美國和G20的印尼四國以外這個四國不要談了其餘各國和我國的勞保性質相近的就是確定給複製的\n這些國家的提存基金的比例都是100%以上印尼沒有啦 印尼是97%啦各國當中最低的是冰島 雖然也曾經破產過但他們年金制度的提存基金比例也有28啦但是不要講這個冰島 這比較特殊 這個\n但是在我國2021年的精算報告勞保的已提存的基金比例是幾%我國的6.19%人家都100%\n好沒關係因為可能制度上有一點差異不一樣但是但是這個這個也是我們可以走的方向可是就人口結構惡化成這個樣子連確定確定幾副字能不能夠適應在未來的改革能不能這樣子都還是一個問號啊\n確定第一波是已經負債這麼多了確定幾副你們有沒有評估過從13萬40萬變成30萬就已經這麼大的財務危機啊30萬變成13萬確定確定幾副字真的也提得出來嗎可以100%嗎你們有評估過嗎這是現在當然現在是這是制度上面的設計\n不是啦政府的功能和角色就國安的危機當然就是未雨綢繆要先試算20年後的危機那我們才能知道怎麼因應而現在我告訴你不管開源或節流所有的手段工具都用竊了沒了沒了然後我就想政府你要想大家都覺得在這裡修法要修什麼啊\n再降低給付再延長這個退休這一些都不是工具了我們過去想像的工具都已經不是工具了更何況AI時代來了所以部長這個是很嚴肅的而且是我相信對勞動部而言你們真的還必須要重新嚴肅的去思考的事過去以後我們確定提撥制變成確定給付制就好了\n我們確定給父子的愛 歡樂人口突然間 人的越來越多五十萬的世代人要再活一年四十萬人的那個世代人要再活一年四十萬人的那個世代人要再活 要再生人的越久 活的越多現在叫的是一年四十三萬的時侯 要安寧\n人家去叫你 我就確定幾副 付得出來嗎所以這個知識體大啦 我只能在這裡與眾欣賞的在跟大家講一個最殘酷現實 我今天要講一個重點不管開源或節流 所有的工具都用完了\n幾乎都沒辦法我們可以想像的勞保的改革手段的工具沒了這是很嚴重的事情好 謝謝\n因為你們不知道說多少勞工仰賴勞保的老年給付剛好你們自己有一個勞工生活及就業狀況調查113年度調查勞工退休後的生活費的來源目前沒有規劃的人28%有規劃的72%但有規劃的裡面仰賴勞保老年給付和勞工退休金的高達四成四所以44加28等於72%都算了\n謝謝!謝謝!\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:07.346 --> 00:10.254\n好謝謝主席是不是還是請我們洪部長\n\n00:16.605 --> 00:37.092\n部長大家都很關心這個勞保的這個基金的問題喔至少我個人也很擔心但我想到說大家覺得說領的越來越多繳費的越來越少可是那我就認真的看了一下新一個世代投入職場\n\n00:38.112 --> 00:54.524\n然後現在有在繳保費的我都很好奇那一年他的出生的人口是多少那我就假設是25歲好了因為大學畢業嘛22歲23歲那今年2025年我就看了一下2020年你知道那一年出生的小孩出生的小孩有幾個嗎大概\n\n00:57.907 --> 01:08.192\n十幾萬我告訴你你會嚇一跳我看了也嚇一跳2020年出生的小孩有30萬5千3百12個你知道去年剩下13萬4千8百56個我這個是統計這絕對不是後面寫的人口統計\n\n01:23.117 --> 01:28.839\n2000年是三十萬五千三百一十二個那個時候就在講說人口少子化危機2000年大家講說現在這繳的少三十萬人還叫繳的少嗎\n\n01:48.507 --> 02:08.328\n但如果再找一個數字相較於1982年那一年出生的小孩有40萬個我就找40萬的40萬掉到30萬2000年其實在2000年已經就掉到30萬了2000年是因為農年再加上2000年\n\n02:09.349 --> 02:38.129\n那為什麼講這個是從40萬人掉到30萬人花了18年的時間少掉了25%四分之一的人口數那個時候我們就說這個勞保的財務危機了勞保的財務危機可是你知道從2000年然後掉到再少四分之一就財務危機少三分之一是幾年多快的速度嗎\n\n02:40.174 --> 02:44.215\n5年2005年出生數剩下20萬5854人2005年短短5年的時間又減10萬他不是10萬是3分之1再來對跟跟花多少的時間對30萬變成要變15萬這樣兇兇落來\n\n03:11.659 --> 03:27.160\n這個速度也是非常的快如果不要講一個特殊的年是2010年的話其實就是2021年20年他從30萬掉到剩15萬二分之一所以2000年為界\n\n03:28.061 --> 03:55.160\n他到2020年掉了二分之一如果少了四分之一就是財務危機那那麼快的速度下墜到三分之一就少了三分之一然後再更快的速度二十年時間少了二分之一那我現在講這個勞保的財務危機大家都知道開源節流開源怎麼開源啊費率法定費率工具用完了剩下幾%現在費率多少%\n\n03:58.160 --> 04:03.543\n法定費率最高到多少法定費率沒有修法的話緊繃啊天花板到了沒有開圓的工具了那我們再打開投保薪資的天花板投保薪資天花板是要開到多高啊\n\n04:24.090 --> 04:33.944\n你少掉了二分之一的人耶如果再跟四十萬的人口來講那個不是二分之一四十萬變成十五萬耶這裡打多開也開不了\n\n04:40.031 --> 04:50.883\n大家都知道這個不是結構不結構入不敷出已經沒有任何的手段可以再繼續開源了好去年2024年這個政府撥補1300億投資收益的創新高1595億的投資收益\n\n05:02.111 --> 05:07.053\n也是一樣入不敷出前年2023年政府撥補550億投資收益1100億那是死好呢那是死壞你投資收益很壞的要安住\n\n05:19.201 --> 05:36.449\n所以在這種狀況裡面我們看你們的精算報告這次的精算報告也出來了去年的勞保收支還短差665億這個已經是連續8年這個逆差大家都知道我剛才剩下人口數給你聽你會怕死啊\n\n05:37.669 --> 05:51.957\n潛藏的負債不要講啊這個從變成14兆就不要講收不抵資也不用再講了惡化也不用再講政府如何加大力道我想喔啊一樣啦已經撥不到1300億啦你是要怎麼加大力道啦還可以多大啦然後這個到底是怎麼怎麼辦喔你把年紀想起來頭皮會發麻捏頭皮真的會發麻欸\n\n06:09.015 --> 06:21.890\n這個人口就是牽動這個退休這個勞保基金最重要的變數這個人口結構這麼大的變化大家都知道人口危機是國安危機可是就是在這裡那勞保的普通事故啊因濟保費在這個\n\n06:30.407 --> 06:35.910\n投保人數就是現在還是40萬的人在繳費的現在繳費的應該都是一年生40萬的人在繳費的吧今年是40萬人那個世代的人在繳費的啦今年是30萬跟20萬的還沒到職場啦\n\n06:53.325 --> 07:00.129\n那是更恐怖的啦一年才有40萬的離開的人現在在投保可是光是這樣子2021年投保人數從1074萬到去年已經下降到1048萬少了26萬了那勞保普通事故因紀的保險費是4881億但實際保險的給付已經高達5546.3億元\n\n07:22.563 --> 07:49.966\n所以這樣的撥補是撥補我們是很輕盈的但是就不是辦法那這種這麼大的人口結構的問題之下這個我的助理叫我跟你們大家講雖然我也不曉得我認不認同但他們都選擇不婚不生快樂一生但是這樣下去他們覺得不婚不生的人也要貧窮一生了啊\n\n07:51.721 --> 07:54.164\n然後呢我要再問你一個很嚴肅的課題喔勞保分得這麼大勞保可以賺嗎你說政府付不付最終責任沒有重要啊全部所有的人口的一半一千萬全部都是在這個社會保險裡面\n\n08:08.797 --> 08:30.933\n都不會負你的責任,政府不會負你的責任,你能夠一個盡權,所有人都不會負你的責任所以這不是重點,要不要負最終責任,現在是政府要怎麼負最終責任啊再來另外一個問題是,你知道有多少的受僱者或是多少的人,他的老年經濟的安全,老年經濟安全\n\n08:33.393 --> 09:02.495\n真的都沒搞吃得老的時候都仰賴勞保的月退再充當他的這個勉強度餘生的棺材本啦我說這個很務實的又很現實的喔不要說勞退喔勞退沒多少錢啦都仰賴勞保主要的經濟老年經濟來源仰賴勞保的比例有多高你告訴我\n\n09:09.292 --> 09:21.902\n各位報告喔我們對勞工的老年經濟保障還是希望他們跟世界...不要講你的希望我現在要問你現實面真正的現實面台灣有多少人他退休之後所有的收入所有經濟的來源他生活都靠而已去報這個月退多少人你跟我說啦\n\n09:35.168 --> 09:49.296\n不過勞保目前的家保人口是一千多萬嘛那但是在勞退那邊也有七百多萬啦所以是我在問什麼你在回答什麼我問東你答西王店員你不知道喔\n\n09:52.433 --> 10:18.039\n數字上面我可能可以我們要再去確認我告訴你大概全台灣沒有人可以講得出一個數字因為沒有人敢面對沒有人敢調查也大家都烏著眼睛都不要去想不要去想但是我跟你說喔就如我剛才一開始就講的現在的年輕人不要問我們上一代的現在要捏錢的啦多少人仰賴這個勞保月退再當生活費的啦\n\n10:18.817 --> 10:19.918\n因為他沒有能力去為自己的老年經濟做準備養小孩繳房貸他在養上一代\n\n10:37.675 --> 10:51.922\n別說他問我們自己啦大家各位在座的各位有幾個人你繳了房貸養了小孩然後給父母生活背後你還有能力為你自己的老年經濟安全有餘裕做準備的這個小孩我說很輕鬆的喔\n\n10:56.294 --> 11:07.052\n我坐著一眼望去多少人都仰賴勞保的月退當生活開支的唯一財源這個問題很嚴重\n\n11:12.714 --> 11:37.746\n我也不知道要怎麼問所以不能破產的但是我現在要跟你講你是政府你再怎麼逃再怎麼躲躲不了撥補是好事但撥補也解決不了漲保費漲保費也沒辦法手段工具都用清了沒有可以再上漲的空間了\n\n11:38.956 --> 11:48.827\n打開天花板,天花板進去繳,收入也有限現在未來是怎樣?我再說一個問題,你不要去思考過不?不對,AI的時代來了AI的時代來了\n\n11:55.129 --> 12:14.522\n三年五年整個社會整個世界都就長得不一樣AI的速度之快啊讓這個社會可能三年就多一輪啊多一輪啊所以那個對勞動市場最大的衝擊是什麼大家都覺得失業啊被替代啊然後來了\n\n12:16.519 --> 12:42.362\n你就要勞保基金的改革說那我們不能開源我們節流叫啊大家啊你要比較少的就已經很少了要給他少要不然就看我而已全世界都在把退休的年齡往後延可是我想AI時代來這是一個很殘忍很殘酷的打擊來了因為可能會很多人力被替代掉而會有大量的過剩的勞動力\n\n12:44.491 --> 13:00.766\n所以如果大家全世界來講說要領年金的年齡往後延那並不是基於並不是基於勞動力需求而已並不是基於勞動力需求的短缺恐怕真正的殘酷是基於\n\n13:02.422 --> 13:12.089\n老年幾戶的這個基金不夠所以這叫大家都不能退休不能退休問題是沒頭腦啊AI時代來了勞動力大量的勞動力過剩人力被取代這樣要怎麼做你們有沒有想過AI時代對整個就業市場勞動力市場的衝擊除了失業以外還會有什麼影響保證你們有想過嗎\n\n13:30.892 --> 13:55.318\n確實這個AI技術的滲透率越來越高其實現在其實在很多面向看起來都會對於整體的勞動環境會造成影響像是我想維恩其實也一直很關注這個問題不是啦我在講跟我們這個勞保基金有關的啦對於整個勞動力市場就業人口除了失業還有可能會產生什麼影響\n\n13:57.375 --> 14:07.243\n失業保費繳的人就少了然後人類可能會更長壽更長壽以後活得越久領得越多活得越久領的人越多這個是這個社會保險會瓦解不是會瓦解是將近崩潰\n\n14:20.629 --> 14:36.443\n不只是勞保還有健保所幸喔勞保不是唯一的那我再不要忘了我們現在移工我們的移工我們現在83萬的移工都在繳保費但是第14年以後不准他們領退休欸\n\n14:41.223 --> 14:48.948\n嘿所以我們的政策都卡在第14年欸我們是用這種殘忍的手段欸可是這種手段會不會有一天在國際勞工的組織裡面這種公約裡面要求台灣不能再這樣子下去或是人家提告到國際法庭去提告覺得我們這種管制手段都叫人搬移\n\n15:07.773 --> 15:11.980\n這樣而已要安坐你做政府的有太重嗎這問題很嚴重的所以在這種狀況裡面\n\n15:20.117 --> 15:43.871\n這個我如果沒有必要又沒有感覺你如果必要我們在講這個社會保險這個問題你知道2023年OECD和G20的國家年金統計調查了42個國家除了冰島墨西哥美國和G20的印尼四國以外這個四國不要談了其餘各國和我國的勞保性質相近的就是確定給複製的\n\n15:46.312 --> 16:06.184\n這些國家的提存基金的比例都是100%以上印尼沒有啦印尼是97%啦各國當中最低的是冰島雖然也曾經破產過但他們年金制度的提存基金比例也有28啦但是不要講這個冰島這比較特殊這個\n\n16:10.586 --> 16:18.898\n但是在我國2021年的精算報告勞保的已提存的基金比例是幾%我國的6.19%人家都100%\n\n16:27.657 --> 16:48.178\n好沒關係因為可能制度上有一點差異不一樣但是但是這個這個也是我們可以走的方向可是就人口結構惡化成這個樣子連確定確定幾副字能不能夠適應在未來的改革能不能這樣子都還是一個問號啊\n\n16:50.652 --> 16:59.159\n確定第一波是已經負債這麼多了確定幾副你們有沒有評估過從13萬40萬變成30萬就已經這麼大的財務危機啊30萬變成13萬確定確定幾副字真的也提得出來嗎可以100%嗎你們有評估過嗎這是現在當然現在是這是制度上面的設計\n\n17:19.315 --> 17:36.990\n不是啦政府的功能和角色就國安的危機當然就是未雨綢繆要先試算20年後的危機那我們才能知道怎麼因應而現在我告訴你不管開源或節流所有的手段工具都用竊了沒了沒了然後我就想政府你要想大家都覺得在這裡修法要修什麼啊\n\n17:47.611 --> 18:16.430\n再降低給付再延長這個退休這一些都不是工具了我們過去想像的工具都已經不是工具了更何況AI時代來了所以部長這個是很嚴肅的而且是我相信對勞動部而言你們真的還必須要重新嚴肅的去思考的事過去以後我們確定提撥制變成確定給付制就好了\n\n18:18.231 --> 18:28.817\n我們確定給父子的愛歡樂人口突然間人的越來越多五十萬的世代人要再活一年四十萬人的那個世代人要再活一年四十萬人的那個世代人要再活要再生人的越久活的越多現在叫的是一年四十三萬的時侯要安寧\n\n18:42.250 --> 19:00.807\n人家去叫你我就確定幾副付得出來嗎所以這個知識體大啦我只能在這裡與眾欣賞的在跟大家講一個最殘酷現實我今天要講一個重點不管開源或節流所有的工具都用完了\n\n19:02.251 --> 19:12.220\n幾乎都沒辦法我們可以想像的勞保的改革手段的工具沒了這是很嚴重的事情好謝謝\n\n19:21.565 --> 19:25.947\n因為你們不知道說多少勞工仰賴勞保的老年給付剛好你們自己有一個勞工生活及就業狀況調查113年度調查勞工退休後的生活費的來源目前沒有規劃的人28%有規劃的72%但有規劃的裡面仰賴勞保老年給付和勞工退休金的高達四成四所以44加28等於72%都算了\n\n","segments":[{"start":7.346,"end":10.254,"text":"好 謝謝主席 是不是還是請我們洪部長"},{"start":16.605,"end":37.092,"text":"部長大家都很關心這個勞保的這個基金的問題喔至少我個人也很擔心但我想到說大家覺得說領的越來越多繳費的越來越少可是那我就認真的看了一下新一個世代投入職場"},{"start":38.112,"end":54.524,"text":"然後現在有在繳保費的我都很好奇那一年他的出生的人口是多少那我就假設是25歲好了因為大學畢業嘛22歲23歲那今年2025年我就看了一下2020年你知道那一年出生的小孩出生的小孩有幾個嗎大概"},{"start":57.907,"end":68.192,"text":"十幾萬我告訴你你會嚇一跳我看了也嚇一跳2020年出生的小孩有30萬5千3百12個你知道去年剩下13萬4千8百56個我這個是統計這絕對不是後面寫的人口統計"},{"start":83.117,"end":88.839,"text":"2000年是三十萬五千三百一十二個那個時候就在講說人口少子化危機2000年大家講說現在這繳的少三十萬人還叫繳的少嗎"},{"start":108.507,"end":128.328,"text":"但如果再找一個數字相較於1982年那一年出生的小孩有40萬個我就找40萬的40萬掉到30萬 2000年其實在2000年已經就掉到30萬了2000年是因為農年再加上2000年"},{"start":129.349,"end":158.129,"text":"那為什麼講這個是從40萬人掉到30萬人花了18年的時間少掉了25%四分之一的人口數那個時候我們就說這個勞保的財務危機了勞保的財務危機可是你知道從2000年然後掉到再少四分之一就財務危機少三分之一是幾年多快的速度嗎"},{"start":160.174,"end":164.215,"text":"5年2005年出生數剩下20萬5854人2005年短短5年的時間又減10萬他不是10萬是3分之1再來對 跟 跟花多少的時間對30萬變成要變15萬這樣 兇兇落來"},{"start":191.659,"end":207.16,"text":"這個速度也是非常的快如果不要講一個特殊的年是2010年的話其實就是2021年20年他從30萬掉到剩15萬二分之一所以2000年為界"},{"start":208.061,"end":235.16,"text":"他到2020年掉了二分之一如果少了四分之一就是財務危機那那麼快的速度下墜到三分之一就少了三分之一然後再更快的速度二十年時間少了二分之一那我現在講這個勞保的財務危機大家都知道開源節流 開源怎麼開源啊費率 法定費率工具用完了 剩下幾%現在費率多少%"},{"start":238.16,"end":243.543,"text":"法定費率最高到多少法定費率沒有修法的話 緊繃啊天花板到了 沒有開圓的工具了那我們再打開投保薪資的天花板投保薪資天花板是要開到多高啊"},{"start":264.09,"end":273.944,"text":"你少掉了二分之一的人耶如果再跟四十萬的人口來講那個不是二分之一四十萬變成十五萬耶這裡打多開也開不了"},{"start":280.031,"end":290.883,"text":"大家都知道 這個不是結構不結構 入不敷出 已經沒有任何的手段可以再繼續開源了好 去年2024年 這個政府撥補1300億 投資收益的創新高1595億的投資收益"},{"start":302.111,"end":307.053,"text":"也是一樣入不敷出前年2023年政府撥補550億投資收益1100億那是死好呢那是死壞 你投資收益很壞的要安住"},{"start":319.201,"end":336.449,"text":"所以在這種狀況裡面 我們看你們的精算報告這次的精算報告也出來了去年的勞保收支還短差665億這個已經是連續8年這個逆差 大家都知道我剛才剩下人口數給你聽 你會怕死啊"},{"start":337.669,"end":351.957,"text":"潛藏的負債不要講啊 這個從變成14兆就不要講收不抵資也不用再講了 惡化也不用再講政府如何加大力道 我想喔啊 一樣啦 已經撥不到1300億啦 你是要怎麼加大力道啦還可以多大啦然後 這個到底是怎麼 怎麼辦喔你把年紀想起來 頭皮會發麻捏頭皮真的會發麻欸"},{"start":369.015,"end":381.89,"text":"這個人口就是牽動這個退休這個勞保基金最重要的變數這個人口結構這麼大的變化大家都知道人口危機是國安危機可是就是在這裡那勞保的普通事故啊因濟保費在這個"},{"start":390.407,"end":395.91,"text":"投保人數就是現在還是40萬的人在繳費的現在繳費的應該都是一年生40萬的人在繳費的吧今年是40萬人那個世代的人在繳費的啦今年是30萬跟20萬的還沒到職場啦"},{"start":413.325,"end":420.129,"text":"那是更恐怖的啦一年才有40萬的離開的人現在在投保可是光是這樣子2021年投保人數從1074萬到去年已經下降到1048萬少了26萬了那勞保普通事故因紀的保險費是4881億但實際保險的給付已經高達5546.3億元"},{"start":442.563,"end":469.966,"text":"所以這樣的撥補是撥補我們是很輕盈的但是就不是辦法那這種這麼大的人口結構的問題之下這個我的助理叫我跟你們大家講雖然我也不曉得我認不認同但他們都選擇不婚不生快樂一生但是這樣下去他們覺得不婚不生的人也要貧窮一生了啊"},{"start":471.721,"end":474.164,"text":"然後呢 我要再問你一個很嚴肅的課題喔勞保分得這麼大 勞保可以賺嗎你說政府付不付 最終責任沒有重要啊全部所有的人口的一半 一千萬全部都是在這個社會保險裡面"},{"start":488.797,"end":510.933,"text":"都不會負你的責任,政府不會負你的責任,你能夠一個盡權,所有人都不會負你的責任所以這不是重點,要不要負最終責任,現在是政府要怎麼負最終責任啊再來另外一個問題是,你知道有多少的受僱者或是多少的人,他的老年經濟的安全,老年經濟安全"},{"start":513.393,"end":542.495,"text":"真的都沒搞 吃得老的時候都仰賴勞保的月退再充當他的這個勉強度餘生的棺材本啦我說這個很務實的 又很現實的喔不要說勞退喔 勞退沒多少錢啦都仰賴勞保主要的經濟 老年經濟來源仰賴勞保的比例有多高 你告訴我"},{"start":549.292,"end":561.902,"text":"各位報告喔 我們對勞工的老年經濟保障還是希望他們跟世界...不要講你的希望 我現在要問你現實面 真正的現實面台灣有多少人 他退休之後所有的收入所有經濟的來源 他生活都靠而已去報這個月退多少人 你跟我說啦"},{"start":575.168,"end":589.296,"text":"不過勞保目前的家保人口是一千多萬嘛那但是在勞退那邊也有七百多萬啦所以是 我在問什麼 你在回答什麼我問東你答西 王店員你不知道喔"},{"start":592.433,"end":618.039,"text":"數字上面我可能可以我們要再去確認我告訴你大概全台灣沒有人可以講得出一個數字因為沒有人敢面對沒有人敢調查也大家都烏著眼睛都不要去想不要去想但是我跟你說喔就如我剛才一開始就講的現在的年輕人不要問我們上一代的現在要捏錢的啦多少人仰賴這個勞保月退再當生活費的啦"},{"start":618.817,"end":619.918,"text":"因為他沒有能力去為自己的老年經濟做準備養小孩繳房貸他在養上一代"},{"start":637.675,"end":651.922,"text":"別說他問我們自己啦大家各位在座的各位有幾個人你繳了房貸養了小孩然後給父母生活背後你還有能力為你自己的老年經濟安全有餘裕做準備的這個小孩我說很輕鬆的喔"},{"start":656.294,"end":667.052,"text":"我坐著一眼望去 多少人都仰賴勞保的月退當生活開支的唯一財源這個問題很嚴重"},{"start":672.714,"end":697.746,"text":"我也不知道要怎麼問 所以不能破產的但是我現在要跟你講 你是政府 你再怎麼逃 再怎麼躲 躲不了撥補是好事 但撥補也解決不了漲保費 漲保費也沒辦法 手段工具都用清了沒有可以再上漲的空間了"},{"start":698.956,"end":708.827,"text":"打開天花板,天花板進去繳,收入也有限現在未來是怎樣?我再說一個問題,你不要去思考過不?不對,AI的時代來了AI的時代來了"},{"start":715.129,"end":734.522,"text":"三年五年整個社會整個世界都就長得不一樣AI的速度之快啊讓這個社會可能三年就多一輪啊多一輪啊所以那個對勞動市場最大的衝擊是什麼大家都覺得失業啊被替代啊然後來了"},{"start":736.519,"end":762.362,"text":"你就要勞保基金的改革 說那我們不能開源 我們節流叫啊 大家啊 你要比較少的就已經很少了 要給他少 要不然就看我而已全世界都在把退休的年齡往後延可是我想AI時代來這是一個很殘忍 很殘酷的打擊來了因為可能會很多人力被替代掉而會有大量的過剩的勞動力"},{"start":764.491,"end":780.766,"text":"所以如果大家全世界來講說要領年金的年齡往後延那並不是基於並不是基於勞動力需求而已並不是基於勞動力需求的短缺恐怕真正的殘酷是基於"},{"start":782.422,"end":792.089,"text":"老年幾戶的這個基金不夠所以這叫大家都不能退休不能退休問題是沒頭腦啊AI時代來了勞動力大量的勞動力過剩人力被取代這樣要怎麼做你們有沒有想過AI時代對整個就業市場勞動力市場的衝擊除了失業以外還會有什麼影響保證你們有想過嗎"},{"start":810.892,"end":835.318,"text":"確實這個AI技術的滲透率越來越高其實現在其實在很多面向看起來都會對於整體的勞動環境會造成影響像是我想維恩其實也一直很關注這個問題不是啦我在講跟我們這個勞保基金有關的啦對於整個勞動力市場就業人口除了失業還有可能會產生什麼影響"},{"start":837.375,"end":847.243,"text":"失業保費繳的人就少了然後人類可能會更長壽更長壽以後活得越久領得越多活得越久領的人越多這個是這個社會保險會瓦解不是會瓦解是將近崩潰"},{"start":860.629,"end":876.443,"text":"不只是勞保還有健保 所幸喔 勞保不是唯一的那我再 不要忘了 我們現在移工我們的移工 我們現在83萬的移工都在繳保費 但是第14年以後不准他們領退休欸"},{"start":881.223,"end":888.948,"text":"嘿 所以我們的政策都卡在第14年欸我們是用這種殘忍的手段欸可是這種手段會不會有一天在國際勞工的組織裡面這種公約裡面要求台灣不能再這樣子下去或是人家提告到國際法庭去提告覺得我們這種管制手段都叫人搬移"},{"start":907.773,"end":911.98,"text":"這樣而已要安坐你做政府的有太重嗎這問題很嚴重的所以在這種狀況裡面"},{"start":920.117,"end":943.871,"text":"這個我如果沒有必要又沒有感覺你如果必要我們在講這個社會保險這個問題你知道2023年OECD和G20的國家年金統計調查了42個國家除了冰島墨西哥美國和G20的印尼四國以外這個四國不要談了其餘各國和我國的勞保性質相近的就是確定給複製的"},{"start":946.312,"end":966.184,"text":"這些國家的提存基金的比例都是100%以上印尼沒有啦 印尼是97%啦各國當中最低的是冰島 雖然也曾經破產過但他們年金制度的提存基金比例也有28啦但是不要講這個冰島 這比較特殊 這個"},{"start":970.586,"end":978.898,"text":"但是在我國2021年的精算報告勞保的已提存的基金比例是幾%我國的6.19%人家都100%"},{"start":987.657,"end":1008.178,"text":"好沒關係因為可能制度上有一點差異不一樣但是但是這個這個也是我們可以走的方向可是就人口結構惡化成這個樣子連確定確定幾副字能不能夠適應在未來的改革能不能這樣子都還是一個問號啊"},{"start":1010.652,"end":1019.159,"text":"確定第一波是已經負債這麼多了確定幾副你們有沒有評估過從13萬40萬變成30萬就已經這麼大的財務危機啊30萬變成13萬確定確定幾副字真的也提得出來嗎可以100%嗎你們有評估過嗎這是現在當然現在是這是制度上面的設計"},{"start":1039.315,"end":1056.99,"text":"不是啦政府的功能和角色就國安的危機當然就是未雨綢繆要先試算20年後的危機那我們才能知道怎麼因應而現在我告訴你不管開源或節流所有的手段工具都用竊了沒了沒了然後我就想政府你要想大家都覺得在這裡修法要修什麼啊"},{"start":1067.611,"end":1096.43,"text":"再降低給付再延長這個退休這一些都不是工具了我們過去想像的工具都已經不是工具了更何況AI時代來了所以部長這個是很嚴肅的而且是我相信對勞動部而言你們真的還必須要重新嚴肅的去思考的事過去以後我們確定提撥制變成確定給付制就好了"},{"start":1098.231,"end":1108.817,"text":"我們確定給父子的愛 歡樂人口突然間 人的越來越多五十萬的世代人要再活一年四十萬人的那個世代人要再活一年四十萬人的那個世代人要再活 要再生人的越久 活的越多現在叫的是一年四十三萬的時侯 要安寧"},{"start":1122.25,"end":1140.807,"text":"人家去叫你 我就確定幾副 付得出來嗎所以這個知識體大啦 我只能在這裡與眾欣賞的在跟大家講一個最殘酷現實 我今天要講一個重點不管開源或節流 所有的工具都用完了"},{"start":1142.251,"end":1152.22,"text":"幾乎都沒辦法我們可以想像的勞保的改革手段的工具沒了這是很嚴重的事情好 謝謝"},{"start":1161.565,"end":1165.947,"text":"因為你們不知道說多少勞工仰賴勞保的老年給付剛好你們自己有一個勞工生活及就業狀況調查113年度調查勞工退休後的生活費的來源目前沒有規劃的人28%有規劃的72%但有規劃的裡面仰賴勞保老年給付和勞工退休金的高達四成四所以44加28等於72%都算了"},{"start":1193.08,"end":1194.923,"text":"謝謝!謝謝!"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":840,"blocks":[["林委員淑芬：（11時53分）好，謝謝主席。請洪部長。"],["洪部長申翰：林委員好。"],["林委員淑芬：部長，大家都很關心勞保基金的問題，至少我個人很擔心。當然我想到大家都覺得領的越來越多，繳費的人越來越少，可是我認真看了一下，新一個世代投入職場現在有在繳保費的，我很好奇他們出生的那一年人口是多少？我就假設是25歲，因為大學畢業22、23歲，那今年是2025年，我就看了一下2020年，你知道那一年出生的小孩大概有幾個嗎？"],["洪部長申翰：十幾萬。"],["林委員淑芬：十幾萬？我告訴你，你會嚇一跳，我看了也嚇一跳，2020年出生的小孩有30萬5,312個，你知道去年剩下13萬4,856個。這個是統計，絕對不是亂寫的，抱歉，我講錯，是2000年，人口統計2000年是30萬5,312個，2000年那個時候就在說人口少子化危機，大家講說現在繳得少，30萬人還叫繳得少嗎？但如果再找一個數字，相較於1982年出生的小孩有40萬個，我就找40萬的。40萬掉到2000年的30萬，其實在2000年以前就已經掉到30萬了，2000年因為是龍年，再加上是2000年。","我為什麼講這個？從40萬人掉到30萬人，花了18年的時間，少掉了25%，四分之一的人口數，那個時候我們就說勞保有財務危機了。本來少四分之一就是財務危機，可是你知道從2000年再少三分之一是幾年？多快的速度？5年，2005年出生數剩下20萬5,854人，2000年至2005年短短5年的時間又少10萬，不是10萬是少三分之一。花多少的時間從30萬變成快要15萬？突然降下來的速度也是非常快。如果不要講一個特殊的年是2010年的話，其實就是2021年，20年從30萬掉到剩15萬，二分之一，以2000年為界，到2020年掉了二分之一。如果少了四分之一就是財務危機，以那麼快的速度下墜少了三分之一，然後再以更快的速度，20年時間少了二分之一來看。我現在要講勞保的財務危機，大家都知道要開源節流，怎麼開源？法定費率工具用完了，剩下百分之多少？現在費率多少？"],["洪部長申翰：11.5。"],["林委員淑芬：12.5還是11.5。"],["洪部長申翰：11.5。"],["林委員淑芬：法定費率最高到多少？"],["洪部長申翰：12。"],["林委員淑芬：那就到了。法定費率沒有修法的話「盡磅」啊！天花板到了，沒有開源的工具了！好，那我們就打開投保薪資的天花板，投保薪資天花板是要開到多高？你少掉了二分之一的人，如果再跟四十萬的人口來比，那個不是二分之一，40萬變成15萬，再打多開也開不了。大家都知道這個不是結構問題，是入不敷出，已經沒有任何的手段可以再繼續開源了。去年2024年政府撥補1,300億，投資收益也創新高達1,595億也是一樣入不敷出，前年2023年政府撥補550億，投資收益1,100億。那是因為「轉好」，如果是「轉壞」投資收益很差，那要怎麼辦？所以在這種狀況裡面，我們看你們這次出來的精算報告，去年的勞保收支還短差665億，這個已經是連續8年逆差，大家都知道，我剛才算那些人口數給你聽，你會嚇死啊！潛藏的負債不要講，變成14兆就不要講，收不抵支也不用再講了，惡化也不用再講。政府如果加大力道，我想也一樣，都已經撥補到1,300億，要怎麼再加大力道，還可以多大？這個到底要怎麼辦？你認真想起來頭皮會發麻！人口就是牽動勞保基金最重要的變數，人口結構這麼大的變化，大家都知道人口危機是國安危機，問題明明就是在這裡。","勞保的普通事故應計保費，投保人數就是現在40萬的人在繳費，現在在繳費的應該都是1年出生40萬人世代的人，是1年生40萬人那個世代的人在繳費。1年生30萬的到20萬的世代還沒來到職場，那是很恐怖的。現在1年只有40萬人口世代的人在投保，可是光是2021年投保人數就已經從1,074萬下降到去年的1,048萬，少了26萬。勞保普通事故應計的保險費是4,881億，但實際保險的給付已經高達5,546.3億元，所以這樣的撥補是……對撥補我們是很肯定的，但這就不是個辦法。在這麼大的人口結構問題之下，我的助理叫我跟大家講，雖然我也不曉得自己認不認同，但他們都選擇不婚不生快樂一生，但是這樣下去，他們覺得不婚不生的人也要貧窮一生了！然後我要再問你一個很嚴肅的課題，勞保問題這麼大，但勞保可以倒嗎？你說政府負不負最終責任不重要了，所有人口的一半一千萬人全部都是在這個社會保險裡面，能夠讓它倒嗎？政府不能讓它倒，任何一個政權、任何人執政都不能讓它倒，所以要不要負最終責任不是重點，現在是政府要怎麼負最終責任。再來另外一個問題是，你知道有多少的受僱者或多少人，他的老年經濟安全，生吃都不夠了，到老的時候，都仰賴勞保的月退在充當他勉強度餘生的棺材本？我說這很務實又很現實，不要說勞退，勞退沒多少錢，都仰賴勞保，主要的老年經濟來源仰賴勞保的比例有多高？你告訴我。"],["陳司長美女：跟委員報告，我們對勞工的老年經濟保障，還是希望他們跟世界……"],["林委員淑芬：不要講你的希望，我現在要問你現實面，真正的現實面，臺灣有多少人退休之後，所有的收入、所有的經濟來源都靠領勞保的月退？你跟我說。"],["陳司長美女：勞保目前的加保人口是一千多萬，但是在勞退那邊也有七百多萬，所以是……"],["林委員淑芬：我在問什麼？你在回答什麼？我問東，你答西。部長，你不知道嗎？"],["洪部長申翰：數字上面可能我們要再去確認一下。"],["林委員淑芬：我告訴你，大概全臺灣沒有人可以講得出一個數字，因為沒有人敢面對，沒有人敢調查，大家都摀著眼睛都不要去想。但是我跟你說，就如我剛才一開始就講的，不要問我們上一代的現在要領錢的多少人仰賴勞保月退在當生活費的，還是現在的多少年輕人為什麼不婚、不生？因為他沒有能力去為自己的老年經濟做準備啊！養小孩、繳房貸，他再養上一代，不要說他們，問我們自己啦！在座的各位有幾個人，你繳了房貸、養了小孩，然後給父母生活費以後，你還有能力、有餘裕為你自己的老年經濟安全做準備的？這個社會我說很現實的，我周遭一眼望去，多少人都仰賴勞保的月退當生活開支的唯一財源，這個問題很嚴重，我也不知道要怎麼問，所以不能破產的啊！不能破產的！","我現在要跟你說，因為你是政府，再怎麼逃、再怎麼躲躲不了，撥補是好事，但撥補也解決不了，我們老實說也解決不了，漲保費也沒辦法，手段、工具都用罄了，沒有可以再上漲的空間了，打開天花板繼續繳，收入也有限，那未來是要怎樣？我再說一個問題，你有沒有思考過？部長，AI的時代來了，過了三年、五年整個社會、整個世界就都長得不一樣，AI的速度之快啊！讓這個社會可能三年就換一輪啊！所以對勞動市場最大的衝擊是什麼？大家都覺得失業啊！被替代啊！然後勞保基金的改革，你們說我們不能開源，那我們節流，叫大家領少一點，就已經很少了，還要怎麼少？不然就晚一點領，全世界都在把退休的年齡往後延，可是我講AI時代來了，這個很殘忍、很殘酷的打擊來了，因為可能會有很多人力被替代掉，而會有大量的、過剩的勞動力，所以，如果全世界在講要把領年金的年齡往後延，那並不是基於勞動力需求的短缺而已，恐怕真正的殘酷是基於老年給付的這個基金不夠，所以才叫大家都不要退休啊！不要退休，問題是沒工作啊！AI時代來了，大量的勞動力過剩、人力被取代，這樣要怎麼辦？你們有沒有想過？AI時代對整個就業市場、勞動力市場的衝擊，除了失業以外，還會有什麼影響？部長，你們有想過嗎？"],["洪部長申翰：確實AI技術的滲透率越來越高，現在在很多面向看起來，都會對於整體的勞動環境造成影響。委員其實也一直很關注這個問題。"],["林委員淑芬：不是啦，我在講跟我們這個勞保基金有關的啦，對於整個勞動力市場、就業人口，除了失業，還有可能會產生什麼影響？失業保費……"],["洪部長申翰：繳的人就少。"],["林委員淑芬：繳的人就少了啊，然後人類可能會更長壽，活得越久，領得越多，活得越久，領的人越多欸！這個社會保險會瓦解，不是會瓦解，是將近崩潰，不只是勞保，還有健保，所幸勞保不是唯一的。不要忘了，現在我們83萬的移工都在繳保費，但是第14年以後，不准他們領退休欸！所以我們的政策都卡在第14年欸！我們是用這麼殘忍的手段欸！可是會不會有一天國際勞工組織的公約要求臺灣不能再這樣子下去？或是人家提告到國際法庭，覺得我們這種管制手段都占人家便宜？這樣要怎麼辦？你做政府的有想到嗎？這問題很嚴重欸！","在這種狀況下，如果沒比較可能沒感覺，如果比下去喔，我們在講社會保險這個問題，你知道2023年OECD和G20的國家年金統計調查了42個國家，除了冰島、墨西哥、美國和G20的印尼4國以外，這4國不要談，其餘各國和我國勞保性質相近的，就是確定給付制的這些國家，提存基金的比例都是100%以上，印尼沒有啦，印尼是97%，各國當中最低的是冰島，雖然曾經破產過，但他們年金制度的提存比率也有28%，不講冰島，這比較特殊，根據我國2021年的精算報告，勞保已提存的基金比例是百分之多少？"],["洪部長申翰：6.19%。"],["林委員淑芬：人家都100%，好，沒關係，因為可能制度上有一點差異，不一樣，但是這也是我們可以走的方向。可是人口結構惡化成這個樣子，連確定給付制能不能夠適應未來的改革，都還是一個問號啊！確定提撥已經負債這麼多了，確定給付你們有沒有評估過？剩13萬，從40萬變成30萬就已經是很大的財務危機了，如果從30萬變成13萬，確定給付制真的提得出來嗎？可以100%嗎？你們有評估過嗎？"],["洪部長申翰：這當然是制度上面的設計。"],["林委員淑芬：不是啦，你們要去做，政府的功能和角色，救國安危機當然就是未雨綢繆，要先試算20年後的危機，我們才能知道怎麼因應，而現在我告訴你，不管開源或節流，所有的手段工具都用罄了！沒了！沒了！然後我在想政府你要想，大家都覺得在這裡修法要修什麼啊？再降低給付、再延長退休，這一些都不是工具了，我們過去想像的工具都已經不是工具了，更何況AI時代來了，所以部長，這個是很嚴肅的，而且我相信對勞動部而言，你們真的還必須要重新嚴肅去思考的是，以後我們確定提撥制變成確定給付制，就要煩惱了，突然間領得人口越來越多，50萬那個世代的人還活著，一年生40萬人的那個世代的人還活著，一年生30萬人的那個世代的人也還活著，還在領，領得越久活得越多，但是現在在繳的是一年生13萬世代的人時，要怎麼辦？讓這些人去繳，你有沒有辦法確定給付付得出來嗎？所以這個茲事體大啦！我只能在這裡語重心長再跟大家講一個最殘酷的現實，我今天要說的只有一個重點，不管開源或節流，所有的工具都用完了，幾乎都沒辦法了，我們可以想像的勞保改革手段工具沒了，這是很嚴重的事情，謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝林淑芬委員、謝謝部長。"],["林委員淑芬：我可以補說一句嗎？"],["主席：好，來。"],["林委員淑芬：我只說一句，你不用起來。因為你不知道多少勞工仰賴勞保的老年給付，剛好你們自己有一個勞工生活及就業狀況調查，113年度調查勞工退休後的生活費來源，目前沒有規劃的人是28%，有規劃的是72%，但有規劃的裡面，仰賴勞保老年給付和勞工退休金的高達四成四，所以44%加28%，等於72%都靠勞保。"],["主席：謝謝林委員。","涂權吉委員改成書面質詢。","接續我們請陳瑩委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":444,"meet_id":"委員會-11-3-26-15","speakers":["蘇清泉","陳昭姿","林月琴","劉建國","陳菁徽","王育敏","邱鎮軍","廖偉翔","黃秀芳","麥玉珍","王正旭","林淑芬","陳瑩","李坤城","楊曜","徐欣瑩","林德福","涂權吉"],"page_start":377,"meetingDate":["2025-06-04"],"gazette_id":"1145601","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1145601_00008"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期社會福利及衛生環境委員會第15次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請勞動部部長就「勞工退休金制度改革，含勞保、勞退執行現況」進行專題報告，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1145601_00007"}}}