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\"響\"}, {\"word\": \"沒\", \"start\": 130.399, \"end\": 130.499, \"score\": 0.797}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 130.499, \"end\": 130.619, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 130.619, \"end\": 130.759, \"score\": 0.997}, {\"word\": \"0\"}, {\"word\": \".\"}, {\"word\": \"3\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 130.759, \"end\": 130.779, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"0\"}, {\"word\": \".\"}, {\"word\": \"2\"}]}, {\"start\": 132.679, \"end\": 136.783, \"text\": \"會到0.2不會到0.3那基本上來講就是說油價的波動氣確實對我們CPI會有些影響那因為我覺得這邊因為看到你這邊的數位報導當中也特別提到一個狀態我們上半年的一個經濟成長的數字預計是5.35%\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 132.679, \"end\": 132.739, \"score\": 0.667}, {\"word\": \"0\"}, {\"word\": \".\"}, {\"word\": \"2\"}, {\"word\": \"不\", \"start\": 132.739, \"end\": 132.859, \"score\": 0.695}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 132.859, \"end\": 132.959, \"score\": 0.661}, {\"word\": \"0\"}, {\"word\": \".\"}, {\"word\": \"3\"}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 132.959, \"end\": 132.979, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"基\", \"start\": 132.979, \"end\": 133.119, \"score\": 0.747}, {\"word\": \"本\", \"start\": 133.119, \"end\": 133.22, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 133.22, \"end\": 133.28, \"score\": 0.434}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"講\"}, {\"word\": \"就\", \"start\": 133.28, \"end\": 133.34, \"score\": 0.666}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 133.34, \"end\": 133.36, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"油\", \"start\": 133.36, \"end\": 133.38, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"價\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 133.38, \"end\": 133.46, \"score\": 0.408}, {\"word\": \"波\", \"start\": 133.46, \"end\": 133.54, \"score\": 0.919}, {\"word\": \"動\"}, {\"word\": \"氣\"}, {\"word\": \"確\"}, {\"word\": \"實\"}, {\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 133.54, \"end\": 133.6, \"score\": 0.632}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"C\", \"start\": 133.6, \"end\": 133.62, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"P\", \"start\": 133.62, \"end\": 133.74, \"score\": 0.685}, {\"word\": \"I\", \"start\": 133.74, \"end\": 133.88, \"score\": 0.793}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 133.88, \"end\": 134.12, \"score\": 0.892}, {\"word\": \"些\", \"start\": 134.12, \"end\": 134.3, \"score\": 0.888}, {\"word\": \"影\", \"start\": 134.3, \"end\": 134.401, \"score\": 0.366}, {\"word\": \"響\"}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 134.401, \"end\": 134.601, \"score\": 0.898}, {\"word\": \"因\", \"start\": 134.601, \"end\": 134.921, \"score\": 0.792}, {\"word\": \"為\"}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 134.921, \"end\": 135.021, \"score\": 0.767}, {\"word\": \"覺\"}, {\"word\": \"得\", \"start\": 135.021, \"end\": 135.101, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"邊\"}, {\"word\": \"因\", \"start\": 135.101, \"end\": 135.161, \"score\": 0.539}, {\"word\": \"為\"}, {\"word\": \"看\", \"start\": 135.161, \"end\": 135.602, \"score\": 0.859}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 135.602, \"end\": 135.622, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"你\", \"start\": 135.622, \"end\": 135.682, \"score\": 0.667}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"邊\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 135.682, \"end\": 135.702, \"score\": 0.002}, {\"word\": \"數\"}, {\"word\": \"位\", \"start\": 135.702, \"end\": 135.782, \"score\": 0.619}, {\"word\": \"報\"}, {\"word\": \"導\"}, {\"word\": \"當\"}, {\"word\": \"中\", \"start\": 135.782, \"end\": 135.862, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 135.862, \"end\": 135.882, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"特\", \"start\": 135.882, \"end\": 135.922, \"score\": 0.499}, {\"word\": \"別\", \"start\": 135.922, \"end\": 136.022, \"score\": 0.8}, {\"word\": \"提\", \"start\": 136.022, \"end\": 136.042, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 136.042, \"end\": 136.062, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 136.062, \"end\": 136.082, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"狀\"}, {\"word\": \"態\"}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 136.082, \"end\": 136.122, \"score\": 0.499}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 136.122, \"end\": 136.282, \"score\": 0.897}, {\"word\": \"半\", \"start\": 136.282, \"end\": 136.302, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 136.302, \"end\": 136.382, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 136.382, \"end\": 136.402, \"score\": 0.003}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 136.402, \"end\": 136.462, \"score\": 0.595}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"經\"}, {\"word\": \"濟\"}, {\"word\": \"成\", \"start\": 136.462, \"end\": 136.623, \"score\": 0.87}, {\"word\": \"長\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 136.623, \"end\": 136.643, \"score\": 0.003}, {\"word\": \"數\"}, {\"word\": \"字\", \"start\": 136.643, \"end\": 136.763, \"score\": 0.829}, {\"word\": \"預\"}, {\"word\": \"計\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 136.763, \"end\": 136.783, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"5\"}, {\"word\": \".\"}, {\"word\": \"3\"}, {\"word\": \"5\"}, {\"word\": \"%\"}]}, {\"start\": 152.156, \"end\": 165.151, \"text\": \"我看央行這邊的數字Q1的時候是達到5.48%那我這邊在想說那如果說這樣整個油價整個情勢大家都覺得是短期的狀態我們為什麼下半年的經濟預測只預測1%\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 152.156, \"end\": 152.296, \"score\": 0.984}, {\"word\": \"看\", \"start\": 152.296, \"end\": 152.517, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"央\", \"start\": 152.517, \"end\": 152.737, \"score\": 0.919}, {\"word\": \"行\", \"start\": 152.737, \"end\": 153.057, \"score\": 0.862}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"邊\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 153.057, \"end\": 153.337, \"score\": 0.901}, {\"word\": \"數\"}, {\"word\": \"字\", \"start\": 153.337, \"end\": 153.518, \"score\": 0.991}, {\"word\": \"Q\", \"start\": 153.518, \"end\": 153.858, \"score\": 0.882}, {\"word\": \"1\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 153.858, \"end\": 153.978, \"score\": 0.984}, {\"word\": \"時\"}, {\"word\": \"候\", \"start\": 153.978, \"end\": 154.138, \"score\": 0.87}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 154.138, \"end\": 154.459, \"score\": 0.877}, {\"word\": \"達\"}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 154.459, \"end\": 156.381, \"score\": 0.898}, {\"word\": \"5\"}, {\"word\": \".\"}, {\"word\": \"4\"}, {\"word\": \"8\"}, {\"word\": \"%\"}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 156.381, \"end\": 156.902, \"score\": 0.971}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 156.902, \"end\": 157.262, \"score\": 0.888}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"邊\"}, {\"word\": \"在\", \"start\": 157.262, \"end\": 157.382, \"score\": 0.833}, {\"word\": \"想\", \"start\": 157.382, \"end\": 158.083, \"score\": 0.97}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 158.083, \"end\": 158.243, \"score\": 0.862}, {\"word\": \"如\", \"start\": 158.243, \"end\": 158.483, \"score\": 0.917}, {\"word\": \"果\", \"start\": 158.483, \"end\": 159.104, \"score\": 0.935}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"樣\"}, {\"word\": \"整\", \"start\": 159.104, \"end\": 159.324, \"score\": 0.906}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"油\", \"start\": 159.324, \"end\": 160.125, \"score\": 0.919}, {\"word\": \"價\"}, {\"word\": \"整\", \"start\": 160.125, \"end\": 161.607, \"score\": 0.965}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"情\", \"start\": 161.607, \"end\": 161.847, \"score\": 0.926}, {\"word\": \"勢\"}, {\"word\": \"大\", \"start\": 161.847, \"end\": 162.008, \"score\": 0.875}, {\"word\": \"家\", \"start\": 162.008, \"end\": 162.188, \"score\": 0.888}, {\"word\": \"都\", \"start\": 162.188, \"end\": 162.328, \"score\": 0.85}, {\"word\": \"覺\"}, {\"word\": \"得\", \"start\": 162.328, \"end\": 162.448, \"score\": 0.81}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 162.448, \"end\": 162.568, \"score\": 0.833}, {\"word\": \"短\", \"start\": 162.568, \"end\": 162.768, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"期\", \"start\": 162.768, \"end\": 162.969, \"score\": 0.873}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 162.969, \"end\": 163.73, \"score\": 0.943}, {\"word\": \"狀\"}, {\"word\": \"態\"}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 163.73, \"end\": 164.09, \"score\": 0.887}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"為\"}, {\"word\": \"什\", \"start\": 164.09, \"end\": 164.35, \"score\": 0.913}, {\"word\": \"麼\"}, {\"word\": \"下\", \"start\": 164.35, \"end\": 164.611, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"半\", \"start\": 164.611, \"end\": 164.811, \"score\": 0.993}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 164.811, \"end\": 165.011, \"score\": 0.942}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 165.011, \"end\": 165.131, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"經\"}, {\"word\": \"濟\"}, {\"word\": \"預\"}, {\"word\": \"測\"}, {\"word\": \"只\", \"start\": 165.131, \"end\": 165.151, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"預\"}, {\"word\": \"測\"}, {\"word\": \"1\"}, {\"word\": \"%\"}]}, {\"start\": 167.938, \"end\": 191.625, \"text\": \"下半年主要是充滿了不定性兩個因素一個是上半年的快速拉貨有可能會影響到下半年因為全年的供應量其實是固定的那有可能影響到下半年的出貨那第二個事情是大家對於下半年如果是在關稅政策各方面的不確定性其實是一直存在所以今年對我們來講我們是比較謹慎在看今年\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"下\", \"start\": 167.938, \"end\": 168.178, \"score\": 0.977}, {\"word\": \"半\", \"start\": 168.178, \"end\": 168.338, \"score\": 0.959}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 168.338, \"end\": 168.578, \"score\": 0.918}, {\"word\": \"主\", \"start\": 168.578, \"end\": 168.698, \"score\": 0.985}, {\"word\": \"要\", \"start\": 168.698, \"end\": 168.858, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 168.858, \"end\": 168.998, \"score\": 0.951}, {\"word\": \"充\", \"start\": 168.998, \"end\": 169.158, \"score\": 0.903}, {\"word\": \"滿\"}, {\"word\": \"了\", \"start\": 169.158, \"end\": 169.478, \"score\": 0.855}, {\"word\": \"不\", \"start\": 169.478, \"end\": 169.639, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"定\", \"start\": 169.639, \"end\": 169.879, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"性\", \"start\": 169.879, \"end\": 170.659, \"score\": 0.931}, {\"word\": \"兩\"}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"因\", \"start\": 170.659, \"end\": 170.939, \"score\": 0.973}, {\"word\": \"素\", \"start\": 170.939, \"end\": 171.919, \"score\": 0.975}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 171.919, \"end\": 172.199, \"score\": 0.919}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 172.199, \"end\": 172.439, \"score\": 0.993}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 172.439, \"end\": 172.619, \"score\": 0.996}, {\"word\": \"半\", \"start\": 172.619, \"end\": 172.759, \"score\": 0.969}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 172.759, \"end\": 172.879, \"score\": 0.989}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 172.879, \"end\": 173.019, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"快\", \"start\": 173.019, \"end\": 173.16, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"速\", \"start\": 173.16, \"end\": 173.34, \"score\": 0.894}, {\"word\": \"拉\", \"start\": 173.34, \"end\": 174.44, \"score\": 0.95}, {\"word\": \"貨\"}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 174.44, \"end\": 174.62, \"score\": 0.983}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 174.62, \"end\": 174.76, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 174.76, \"end\": 175.02, \"score\": 0.921}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"影\", \"start\": 175.02, \"end\": 175.32, \"score\": 0.924}, {\"word\": \"響\"}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 175.32, \"end\": 175.48, \"score\": 0.997}, {\"word\": \"下\", \"start\": 175.48, \"end\": 175.68, \"score\": 0.987}, {\"word\": \"半\", \"start\": 175.68, \"end\": 175.84, \"score\": 0.987}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 175.84, \"end\": 176.1, \"score\": 0.981}, {\"word\": \"因\", \"start\": 176.1, \"end\": 176.3, \"score\": 0.899}, {\"word\": \"為\"}, {\"word\": \"全\", \"start\": 176.3, \"end\": 176.48, \"score\": 0.995}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 176.48, \"end\": 176.601, \"score\": 0.967}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 176.601, \"end\": 176.701, \"score\": 0.997}, {\"word\": \"供\", \"start\": 176.701, \"end\": 176.941, \"score\": 0.836}, {\"word\": \"應\"}, {\"word\": \"量\", \"start\": 176.941, \"end\": 177.161, \"score\": 0.966}, {\"word\": \"其\", \"start\": 177.161, \"end\": 177.361, \"score\": 0.9}, {\"word\": \"實\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 177.361, \"end\": 177.561, \"score\": 0.965}, {\"word\": \"固\", \"start\": 177.561, \"end\": 177.701, \"score\": 0.856}, {\"word\": \"定\", \"start\": 177.701, \"end\": 177.921, \"score\": 0.905}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 177.921, \"end\": 178.401, \"score\": 0.991}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 178.401, \"end\": 178.541, \"score\": 0.994}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 178.541, \"end\": 178.701, \"score\": 0.989}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 178.701, \"end\": 178.861, \"score\": 0.765}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 178.861, \"end\": 178.961, \"score\": 0.99}, {\"word\": \"影\", \"start\": 178.961, \"end\": 179.281, \"score\": 0.93}, {\"word\": \"響\"}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 179.281, \"end\": 179.421, \"score\": 0.997}, {\"word\": \"下\", \"start\": 179.421, \"end\": 179.601, \"score\": 0.97}, {\"word\": \"半\", \"start\": 179.601, \"end\": 179.741, \"score\": 0.978}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 179.741, \"end\": 179.881, \"score\": 0.992}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 179.881, \"end\": 180.042, \"score\": 1.0}, {\"word\": \"出\", \"start\": 180.042, \"end\": 180.922, \"score\": 0.966}, {\"word\": \"貨\"}, {\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 180.922, \"end\": 181.102, \"score\": 0.983}, {\"word\": \"第\", \"start\": 181.102, \"end\": 181.262, \"score\": 0.924}, {\"word\": \"二\", \"start\": 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\"start\": 184.483, \"end\": 185.023, \"score\": 0.926}, {\"word\": \"關\"}, {\"word\": \"稅\"}, {\"word\": \"政\", \"start\": 185.023, \"end\": 185.223, \"score\": 0.918}, {\"word\": \"策\", \"start\": 185.223, \"end\": 185.423, \"score\": 0.965}, {\"word\": \"各\", \"start\": 185.423, \"end\": 185.543, \"score\": 0.926}, {\"word\": \"方\", \"start\": 185.543, \"end\": 185.723, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"面\", \"start\": 185.723, \"end\": 186.203, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 186.203, \"end\": 186.343, \"score\": 0.993}, {\"word\": \"不\", \"start\": 186.343, \"end\": 186.603, \"score\": 0.922}, {\"word\": \"確\"}, {\"word\": \"定\", \"start\": 186.603, \"end\": 186.783, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"性\", \"start\": 186.783, \"end\": 187.004, \"score\": 0.994}, {\"word\": \"其\", \"start\": 187.004, \"end\": 187.384, \"score\": 0.946}, {\"word\": \"實\"}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 187.384, \"end\": 187.984, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 187.984, 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\"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:06,838 --> 00:00:21,600\n謝謝主席今天特別安排了因應國際經貿形勢變化如何協助我國產業面對台幣匯率升值及國際能源價格巨變的問題我想首先先請教一下那個國發會主委好不好劉主委\n\n2\n00:00:33,037 --> 00:00:44,384\n因為我在想說今天就是包括了我們央行跟經濟部都一起在所以我覺得這問題其實特別的好那剛剛央行的副總裁還有特別提到說其實目前整個\n\n3\n00:00:47,679 --> 00:01:02,523\n近期的一個油價波動他覺得可能會是一個短期的一個現象請問你怎麼看這件事情目前就油價的波動我們來看今年一到六月來看最高點事實上是在1月15號是83.48\n\n4\n00:01:06,064 --> 00:01:26,476\n那我們戰爭發生的時候呢其實上6月19號最高到80.37其實這個數字也沒有達到今年的最高點隨後降下來到73.35那大家比較擔心的會是如果往下走把那個荷末斯海峽如果封鎖了那就會有比較可能帶動比較大的影響\n\n5\n00:01:27,236 --> 00:01:47,554\n但是從昨天川普宣布兩邊停火到今天早上伊朗也同意了那整個戰爭情勢看起來是往下滑那對油價的影響目前我們還在評估但至少到了昨天是到23號掉到73.35已經到到今年的均價OK還是一個\n\n6\n00:01:48,174 --> 00:02:10,779\n之前我們一部部長他曾經有提到給我的數字他說我們油價如果漲10%對CPI會影響0.3%這樣的數字其實是正確的嗎我們是做了兩個評估啦其中一個評估主要是我們在評估油價大概會漲多少那我們其實在這次的評估我們認為最多影響沒有到0.3是0.2\n\n7\n00:02:12,679 --> 00:02:16,783\n會到0.2不會到0.3那基本上來講就是說油價的波動氣確實對我們CPI會有些影響那因為我覺得這邊因為看到你這邊的數位報導當中也特別提到一個狀態我們上半年的一個經濟成長的數字預計是5.35%\n\n8\n00:02:32,156 --> 00:02:45,151\n我看央行這邊的數字Q1的時候是達到5.48%那我這邊在想說那如果說這樣整個油價整個情勢大家都覺得是短期的狀態我們為什麼下半年的經濟預測只預測1%\n\n9\n00:02:47,938 --> 00:03:11,625\n下半年主要是充滿了不定性兩個因素一個是上半年的快速拉貨有可能會影響到下半年因為全年的供應量其實是固定的那有可能影響到下半年的出貨那第二個事情是大家對於下半年如果是在關稅政策各方面的不確定性其實是一直存在所以今年對我們來講我們是比較謹慎在看今年\n\n10\n00:03:12,105 --> 00:03:30,470\nOK所以不確定性其實它也可能好也可能不好所以1%的狀態你覺得是不好是Worstcase狀態可能還有1%的狀態對現在是以Worstcase來估的所以是以Worstcase的狀態來做一個評估沒錯OK好理解好謝謝謝謝主委那我想接下來請一下郭智輝郭部長郭部長\n\n11\n00:03:40,225 --> 00:04:02,484\n委員好部長好因為禮拜四我們也就教過您有關於那個伊朗這邊相關的中東相關的問題你也給了我們一些具體的數字那因為現在局勢確實變化非常的多那一下就停下來那我想這邊特別請教一下因為那個我們最近看到了一些相關的問題就是整個\n\n12\n00:04:04,586 --> 00:04:15,955\n天然氣的問題我想先請教一下我們目前台灣的天然氣發電大概佔總體發電量的百分之多少接近那個\n\n13\n00:04:18,001 --> 00:04:44,189\n差不多接近四成多只接近四成是不是天然氣發電量只接近四成嘛對不對那我想說以這樣的一個情況因為我們看到就是行政院2025年公佈這個河山停基之後的一個配比的狀態我這樣整個加起來狀態就燃煤29.6燃氣52跟再生能源16.3那目前我們燃氣的部分只有到四成是不是\n\n14\n00:04:45,234 --> 00:05:01,279\n所以它這個數字當中的差距是在哪裡45%左右所以因為我看這邊的數字的時候整個加起來也是97.9%也不到100%那剩下的2.1%的部分是核能上半年發電的部分還是怎麼樣的數字\n\n15\n00:05:02,335 --> 00:05:23,743\n因為我們這是用全年平均的數字所以當然是包括這個5月17號以前的所以說目前整個天然氣的發電在45%可是我們全年可能會到52%是這個狀態對不對平均下來會到52%所以表示我們下半年我們天然氣的用量一定會增加很多對不對\n\n16\n00:05:25,223 --> 00:05:52,565\n會增加很多所以說針對這樣的國際情勢的變化尤其中東的部分我們更要特別的關注那尤其是部長那天有提到說當然就是像赫姆治海峽現在可能是也是順利在走可是你那時候有提到說台灣有25%的天然氣進口是透過這個海峽這邊過來的那我們對於這樣子的一個影響的時候經濟部這邊有沒有什麼更清楚的一個\n\n17\n00:05:54,280 --> 00:06:02,231\n來規劃比方說我們接下來兩個月的天然氣的發電量然後怎麼樣去穩定這樣子的一個天然氣的一個進口\n\n18\n00:06:03,519 --> 00:06:31,596\n這個天然氣的部分我跟委員報告我們大概價格的部分應該是我們都是採取現貨這個觀察現貨的狀況那至於說您剛才所關注的這個部分我們大概對這個中長期的契約供應商我們有跟他在聯絡那希望他能夠提前來交貨這個先穩住供應量那麼這個如果有缺口的部分呢\n\n19\n00:06:32,196 --> 00:06:59,534\n有缺口的部分我們當然是從這個現貨的市場裡面來買進那這個主要我們還是不是只有一個地方在購買這個天然氣你說我們是多元的所以我這邊特別提到因為你說上半年我們的那個天然氣的佔比大概只有佔45%那全年要到52%的時候表示下半年的比重會非常的高你預計下半年我們天然氣的發電量比重大概要到多高才會變成全年52%\n\n20\n00:07:01,555 --> 00:07:20,469\n報告員我稍微更正一下很抱歉剛才我們的這個同仁在跟我提示一下他說我們現在大概大概全年平均會接近50並沒有到52全年會到50不到52所以說下半年基本上還是會拉高三個百分比對不對45到\n\n21\n00:07:22,170 --> 00:07:45,120\n或者是更高的一個部分所以說我們現在下半年的時候天然氣的量肯定是會非常的多那我在這邊也特別提到因為針對整個能源的部分我們一直有關注到像最近跟整個再生能源有兩個很相關的一個議題我這邊也特別提到一個部分一個地方的時候就是大樹的和珊光電的問題\n\n22\n00:07:47,201 --> 00:08:02,541\n這邊是一個狀態之前的時候廠商認為是合法開發也取得居民的同意居民的時候覺得說好像並不是這麼一回事針對大樹的核戰觀念的部分我想請教經濟部這邊的立場是什麼我們後續要怎麼去解決這個問題\n\n23\n00:08:03,542 --> 00:08:14,349\n是報告委員我想經濟部的立場只要合法合規我們就是依照合法合規去處理那因為這個案場它事實上目前是嚴重的違反這個規定\n\n24\n00:08:18,812 --> 00:08:40,753\n高雄市政府已經對他採取的這個措施經濟部也在昨天馬上發出這個停止他再繼續進行工程的這個OK也已經發布新的一個指令出來了那我這邊想再問一個就是經濟部跟農業部請一下農業部次長一下因為那個同時跟綠能有關的部分另外就是漁電\n\n25\n00:08:42,940 --> 00:09:10,292\n發電的一個問題那最近有一家廠商誠心綠能就是最大的漁電工程廠商也出了狀態那他們認為可能跟政策的前後不一致產生了一些這樣的關係那我想請教針對不管是光電或者是漁電的部分我們經濟部跟農業部這邊的時候是不是有一個協調的機制然後讓廠商能夠有一個從頭到尾一致性的標準去\n\n26\n00:09:12,334 --> 00:09:31,494\n而不是之前是一種標準之後又是一種標準可以請次長回答一下謝謝委員事實上政策一直都沒有不一致完全是一致我們跟經濟部也有非常緊密的在就能源的問題在做接洽同時我們的做法都是一樣的那事實上\n\n27\n00:09:32,475 --> 00:09:54,367\n所謂的不一致就是其實在農業我們是以農業漁業為本那綠能為加值但是現在如果這些業者他沒有以他的這個漁業或者是農業經營計畫來按照這個來進行他只要用光電的話他就會站在他的立場認為說你這個政策變來變去其實政策一直都沒有變\n\n28\n00:09:54,687 --> 00:10:11,253\n政策發展率呢這確實是沒變可是很多的操作的細節確實是不斷的在改變包括我剛剛講的大樹的那個案子的時候他們在2020年申請的時候坦白說是沒有環評的那現在可能會有這個需要那這漁電共生當中的時候之前的時候呢\n\n29\n00:10:11,653 --> 00:10:28,505\n可能是先發電沒有關係可是現在對於整個漁業的部分也有新的要求所以本席希望就是經濟部就掌握能源的一個政策跟整個農業部需要有很多相關的一個配套我們希望這兩個部會能夠有更有效的一個機制去做一個協調讓整個業者能夠有一個\n\n30\n00:10:31,667 --> 00:11:00,017\n一致穩定的一個操作的一個標準而不是會面臨到很多行政上面的一些各種的調整影響到他們後續的狀態那我想說現在我們也很需要整個綠能的一個發展經濟部特別提到說台灣對於綠能是缺的這是很清楚的狀態所以我們也希望說各部會能夠有跨部會的整合能夠讓廠商真正做到對台灣的綠電有貢獻好不好是這個沒問題我們一直跟經濟部都是一致的經常在聯繫這個沒有問題\n\n31\n00:11:01,417 --> 00:11:01,437\n好謝謝\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n6838\t21600\t謝謝主席今天特別安排了因應國際經貿形勢變化如何協助我國產業面對台幣匯率升值及國際能源價格巨變的問題我想首先先請教一下那個國發會主委好不好劉主委\n33037\t44384\t因為我在想說今天就是包括了我們央行跟經濟部都一起在 所以我覺得這問題其實特別的好那剛剛央行的副總裁還有特別提到說其實目前整個\n47679\t62523\t近期的一個油價波動他覺得可能會是一個短期的一個現象請問你怎麼看這件事情目前就油價的波動我們來看今年一到六月來看最高點事實上是在1月15號是83.48\n66064\t86476\t那我們戰爭發生的時候呢其實上6月19號最高到80.37其實這個數字也沒有達到今年的最高點隨後降下來到73.35那大家比較擔心的會是如果往下走把那個荷末斯海峽如果封鎖了那就會有比較可能帶動比較大的影響\n87236\t107554\t但是從昨天川普宣布兩邊停火到今天早上伊朗也同意了那整個戰爭情勢看起來是往下滑那對油價的影響目前我們還在評估但至少到了昨天是到23號掉到73.35已經到到今年的均價OK 還是一個\n108174\t130779\t之前我們一部部長他曾經有提到給我的數字他說我們油價如果漲10%對CPI會影響0.3%這樣的數字其實是正確的嗎我們是做了兩個評估啦其中一個評估主要是我們在評估油價大概會漲多少那我們其實在這次的評估我們認為最多影響沒有到0.3是0.2\n132679\t136783\t會到0.2不會到0.3那基本上來講就是說油價的波動氣確實對我們CPI會有些影響那因為我覺得這邊因為看到你這邊的數位報導當中也特別提到一個狀態我們上半年的一個經濟成長的數字預計是5.35%\n152156\t165151\t我看央行這邊的數字Q1的時候是達到5.48%那我這邊在想說那如果說這樣整個油價整個情勢大家都覺得是短期的狀態我們為什麼下半年的經濟預測只預測1%\n167938\t191625\t下半年主要是充滿了不定性兩個因素一個是上半年的快速拉貨有可能會影響到下半年因為全年的供應量其實是固定的那有可能影響到下半年的出貨那第二個事情是大家對於下半年如果是在關稅政策各方面的不確定性其實是一直存在所以今年對我們來講我們是比較謹慎在看今年\n192105\t210470\tOK 所以不確定性其實它也可能好也可能不好所以1%的狀態你覺得是不好是Worst case狀態可能還有1%的狀態對 現在是以Worst case來估的所以是以Worst case的狀態來做一個評估沒錯OK 好 理解好 謝謝 謝謝主委那我想接下來請一下郭智輝 郭部長郭部長\n220225\t242484\t委員好部長好因為禮拜四我們也就教過您有關於那個伊朗這邊相關的中東相關的問題你也給了我們一些具體的數字那因為現在局勢確實變化非常的多那一下就停下來那我想這邊特別請教一下因為那個我們最近看到了一些相關的問題就是整個\n244586\t255955\t天然氣的問題我想先請教一下我們目前台灣的天然氣發電大概佔總體發電量的百分之多少接近那個\n258001\t284189\t差不多接近四成多只接近四成是不是天然氣發電量只接近四成嘛對不對那我想說以這樣的一個情況因為我們看到就是行政院2025年公佈這個河山停基之後的一個配比的狀態我這樣整個加起來狀態就燃煤29.6 燃氣52跟再生能源16.3那目前我們燃氣的部分只有到四成是不是\n285234\t301279\t所以它這個數字當中的差距是在哪裡45%左右所以因為我看這邊的數字的時候整個加起來也是97.9%也不到100%那剩下的2.1%的部分是核能上半年發電的部分還是怎麼樣的數字\n302335\t323743\t因為我們這是用全年平均的數字所以當然是包括這個5月17號以前的所以說目前整個天然氣的發電在45%可是我們全年可能會到52%是這個狀態對不對平均下來會到52%所以表示我們下半年我們天然氣的用量一定會增加很多對不對\n325223\t352565\t會增加很多所以說針對這樣的國際情勢的變化尤其中東的部分我們更要特別的關注那尤其是部長那天有提到說當然就是像赫姆治海峽現在可能是也是順利在走可是你那時候有提到說台灣有25%的天然氣進口是透過這個海峽這邊過來的那我們對於這樣子的一個影響的時候經濟部這邊有沒有什麼更清楚的一個\n354280\t362231\t來規劃 比方說我們接下來兩個月的天然氣的發電量然後怎麼樣去穩定這樣子的一個天然氣的一個進口\n363519\t391596\t這個天然氣的部分我跟委員報告我們大概價格的部分應該是我們都是採取現貨這個觀察現貨的狀況那至於說您剛才所關注的這個部分我們大概對這個中長期的契約供應商我們有跟他在聯絡那希望他能夠提前來交貨這個先穩住供應量那麼這個如果有缺口的部分呢\n392196\t419534\t有缺口的部分我們當然是從這個現貨的市場裡面來買進那這個主要我們還是不是只有一個地方在購買這個天然氣你說我們是多元的所以我這邊特別提到因為你說上半年我們的那個天然氣的佔比大概只有佔45%那全年要到52%的時候表示下半年的比重會非常的高你預計下半年我們天然氣的發電量比重大概要到多高才會變成全年52%\n421555\t440469\t報告員我稍微更正一下很抱歉剛才我們的這個同仁在跟我提示一下他說我們現在大概大概全年平均會接近50並沒有到52全年會到50不到52所以說下半年基本上還是會拉高三個百分比對不對45到\n442170\t465120\t或者是更高的一個部分所以說我們現在下半年的時候天然氣的量肯定是會非常的多那我在這邊也特別提到因為針對整個能源的部分我們一直有關注到像最近跟整個再生能源有兩個很相關的一個議題我這邊也特別提到一個部分一個地方的時候就是大樹的和珊光電的問題\n467201\t482541\t這邊是一個狀態之前的時候 廠商認為是合法開發 也取得居民的同意居民的時候覺得說好像並不是這麼一回事針對大樹的核戰觀念的部分我想請教經濟部這邊的立場是什麼我們後續要怎麼去解決這個問題\n483542\t494349\t是 報告委員 我想經濟部的立場只要合法合規我們就是依照合法合規去處理那因為這個案場它事實上目前是嚴重的違反這個規定\n498812\t520753\t高雄市政府已經對他採取的這個措施經濟部也在昨天馬上發出這個停止他再繼續進行工程的這個OK 也已經發布新的一個指令出來了那我這邊想再問一個就是經濟部跟農業部請一下農業部次長一下因為那個同時跟綠能有關的部分另外就是漁電\n522940\t550292\t發電的一個問題那最近有一家廠商誠心綠能就是最大的漁電工程廠商也出了狀態那他們認為可能跟政策的前後不一致產生了一些這樣的關係那我想請教針對不管是光電或者是漁電的部分我們經濟部跟農業部這邊的時候是不是有一個協調的機制然後讓廠商能夠有一個從頭到尾一致性的標準去\n552334\t571494\t而不是之前是一種標準之後又是一種標準可以請次長回答一下謝謝委員事實上政策一直都沒有不一致完全是一致我們跟經濟部也有非常緊密的在就能源的問題在做接洽同時我們的做法都是一樣的那事實上\n572475\t594367\t所謂的不一致就是其實在農業我們是以農業漁業為本那綠能為加值但是現在如果這些業者他沒有以他的這個漁業或者是農業經營計畫來按照這個來進行他只要用光電的話他就會站在他的立場認為說你這個政策變來變去其實政策一直都沒有變\n594687\t611253\t政策發展率呢這確實是沒變可是很多的操作的細節確實是不斷的在改變包括我剛剛講的大樹的那個案子的時候他們在2020年申請的時候坦白說是沒有環評的那現在可能會有這個需要那這漁電共生當中的時候之前的時候呢\n611653\t628505\t可能是先發電沒有關係可是現在對於整個漁業的部分也有新的要求所以本席希望就是經濟部就掌握能源的一個政策跟整個農業部需要有很多相關的一個配套我們希望這兩個部會能夠有更有效的一個機制去做一個協調讓整個業者能夠有一個\n631667\t660017\t一致穩定的一個操作的一個標準而不是會面臨到很多行政上面的一些各種的調整影響到他們後續的狀態那我想說現在我們也很需要整個綠能的一個發展經濟部特別提到說台灣對於綠能是缺的這是很清楚的狀態所以我們也希望說各部會能夠有跨部會的整合能夠讓廠商真正做到對台灣的綠電有貢獻好不好是 這個沒問題我們一直跟經濟部都是一致的經常在聯繫這個沒有問題\n661417\t661437\t好 謝謝\n","txt":"謝謝主席今天特別安排了因應國際經貿形勢變化如何協助我國產業面對台幣匯率升值及國際能源價格巨變的問題我想首先先請教一下那個國發會主委好不好劉主委\n因為我在想說今天就是包括了我們央行跟經濟部都一起在 所以我覺得這問題其實特別的好那剛剛央行的副總裁還有特別提到說其實目前整個\n近期的一個油價波動他覺得可能會是一個短期的一個現象請問你怎麼看這件事情目前就油價的波動我們來看今年一到六月來看最高點事實上是在1月15號是83.48\n那我們戰爭發生的時候呢其實上6月19號最高到80.37其實這個數字也沒有達到今年的最高點隨後降下來到73.35那大家比較擔心的會是如果往下走把那個荷末斯海峽如果封鎖了那就會有比較可能帶動比較大的影響\n但是從昨天川普宣布兩邊停火到今天早上伊朗也同意了那整個戰爭情勢看起來是往下滑那對油價的影響目前我們還在評估但至少到了昨天是到23號掉到73.35已經到到今年的均價OK 還是一個\n之前我們一部部長他曾經有提到給我的數字他說我們油價如果漲10%對CPI會影響0.3%這樣的數字其實是正確的嗎我們是做了兩個評估啦其中一個評估主要是我們在評估油價大概會漲多少那我們其實在這次的評估我們認為最多影響沒有到0.3是0.2\n會到0.2不會到0.3那基本上來講就是說油價的波動氣確實對我們CPI會有些影響那因為我覺得這邊因為看到你這邊的數位報導當中也特別提到一個狀態我們上半年的一個經濟成長的數字預計是5.35%\n我看央行這邊的數字Q1的時候是達到5.48%那我這邊在想說那如果說這樣整個油價整個情勢大家都覺得是短期的狀態我們為什麼下半年的經濟預測只預測1%\n下半年主要是充滿了不定性兩個因素一個是上半年的快速拉貨有可能會影響到下半年因為全年的供應量其實是固定的那有可能影響到下半年的出貨那第二個事情是大家對於下半年如果是在關稅政策各方面的不確定性其實是一直存在所以今年對我們來講我們是比較謹慎在看今年\nOK 所以不確定性其實它也可能好也可能不好所以1%的狀態你覺得是不好是Worst case狀態可能還有1%的狀態對 現在是以Worst case來估的所以是以Worst case的狀態來做一個評估沒錯OK 好 理解好 謝謝 謝謝主委那我想接下來請一下郭智輝 郭部長郭部長\n委員好部長好因為禮拜四我們也就教過您有關於那個伊朗這邊相關的中東相關的問題你也給了我們一些具體的數字那因為現在局勢確實變化非常的多那一下就停下來那我想這邊特別請教一下因為那個我們最近看到了一些相關的問題就是整個\n天然氣的問題我想先請教一下我們目前台灣的天然氣發電大概佔總體發電量的百分之多少接近那個\n差不多接近四成多只接近四成是不是天然氣發電量只接近四成嘛對不對那我想說以這樣的一個情況因為我們看到就是行政院2025年公佈這個河山停基之後的一個配比的狀態我這樣整個加起來狀態就燃煤29.6 燃氣52跟再生能源16.3那目前我們燃氣的部分只有到四成是不是\n所以它這個數字當中的差距是在哪裡45%左右所以因為我看這邊的數字的時候整個加起來也是97.9%也不到100%那剩下的2.1%的部分是核能上半年發電的部分還是怎麼樣的數字\n因為我們這是用全年平均的數字所以當然是包括這個5月17號以前的所以說目前整個天然氣的發電在45%可是我們全年可能會到52%是這個狀態對不對平均下來會到52%所以表示我們下半年我們天然氣的用量一定會增加很多對不對\n會增加很多所以說針對這樣的國際情勢的變化尤其中東的部分我們更要特別的關注那尤其是部長那天有提到說當然就是像赫姆治海峽現在可能是也是順利在走可是你那時候有提到說台灣有25%的天然氣進口是透過這個海峽這邊過來的那我們對於這樣子的一個影響的時候經濟部這邊有沒有什麼更清楚的一個\n來規劃 比方說我們接下來兩個月的天然氣的發電量然後怎麼樣去穩定這樣子的一個天然氣的一個進口\n這個天然氣的部分我跟委員報告我們大概價格的部分應該是我們都是採取現貨這個觀察現貨的狀況那至於說您剛才所關注的這個部分我們大概對這個中長期的契約供應商我們有跟他在聯絡那希望他能夠提前來交貨這個先穩住供應量那麼這個如果有缺口的部分呢\n有缺口的部分我們當然是從這個現貨的市場裡面來買進那這個主要我們還是不是只有一個地方在購買這個天然氣你說我們是多元的所以我這邊特別提到因為你說上半年我們的那個天然氣的佔比大概只有佔45%那全年要到52%的時候表示下半年的比重會非常的高你預計下半年我們天然氣的發電量比重大概要到多高才會變成全年52%\n報告員我稍微更正一下很抱歉剛才我們的這個同仁在跟我提示一下他說我們現在大概大概全年平均會接近50並沒有到52全年會到50不到52所以說下半年基本上還是會拉高三個百分比對不對45到\n或者是更高的一個部分所以說我們現在下半年的時候天然氣的量肯定是會非常的多那我在這邊也特別提到因為針對整個能源的部分我們一直有關注到像最近跟整個再生能源有兩個很相關的一個議題我這邊也特別提到一個部分一個地方的時候就是大樹的和珊光電的問題\n這邊是一個狀態之前的時候 廠商認為是合法開發 也取得居民的同意居民的時候覺得說好像並不是這麼一回事針對大樹的核戰觀念的部分我想請教經濟部這邊的立場是什麼我們後續要怎麼去解決這個問題\n是 報告委員 我想經濟部的立場只要合法合規我們就是依照合法合規去處理那因為這個案場它事實上目前是嚴重的違反這個規定\n高雄市政府已經對他採取的這個措施經濟部也在昨天馬上發出這個停止他再繼續進行工程的這個OK 也已經發布新的一個指令出來了那我這邊想再問一個就是經濟部跟農業部請一下農業部次長一下因為那個同時跟綠能有關的部分另外就是漁電\n發電的一個問題那最近有一家廠商誠心綠能就是最大的漁電工程廠商也出了狀態那他們認為可能跟政策的前後不一致產生了一些這樣的關係那我想請教針對不管是光電或者是漁電的部分我們經濟部跟農業部這邊的時候是不是有一個協調的機制然後讓廠商能夠有一個從頭到尾一致性的標準去\n而不是之前是一種標準之後又是一種標準可以請次長回答一下謝謝委員事實上政策一直都沒有不一致完全是一致我們跟經濟部也有非常緊密的在就能源的問題在做接洽同時我們的做法都是一樣的那事實上\n所謂的不一致就是其實在農業我們是以農業漁業為本那綠能為加值但是現在如果這些業者他沒有以他的這個漁業或者是農業經營計畫來按照這個來進行他只要用光電的話他就會站在他的立場認為說你這個政策變來變去其實政策一直都沒有變\n政策發展率呢這確實是沒變可是很多的操作的細節確實是不斷的在改變包括我剛剛講的大樹的那個案子的時候他們在2020年申請的時候坦白說是沒有環評的那現在可能會有這個需要那這漁電共生當中的時候之前的時候呢\n可能是先發電沒有關係可是現在對於整個漁業的部分也有新的要求所以本席希望就是經濟部就掌握能源的一個政策跟整個農業部需要有很多相關的一個配套我們希望這兩個部會能夠有更有效的一個機制去做一個協調讓整個業者能夠有一個\n一致穩定的一個操作的一個標準而不是會面臨到很多行政上面的一些各種的調整影響到他們後續的狀態那我想說現在我們也很需要整個綠能的一個發展經濟部特別提到說台灣對於綠能是缺的這是很清楚的狀態所以我們也希望說各部會能夠有跨部會的整合能夠讓廠商真正做到對台灣的綠電有貢獻好不好是 這個沒問題我們一直跟經濟部都是一致的經常在聯繫這個沒有問題\n好 謝謝\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:06.838 --> 00:21.600\n謝謝主席今天特別安排了因應國際經貿形勢變化如何協助我國產業面對台幣匯率升值及國際能源價格巨變的問題我想首先先請教一下那個國發會主委好不好劉主委\n\n00:33.037 --> 00:44.384\n因為我在想說今天就是包括了我們央行跟經濟部都一起在所以我覺得這問題其實特別的好那剛剛央行的副總裁還有特別提到說其實目前整個\n\n00:47.679 --> 01:02.523\n近期的一個油價波動他覺得可能會是一個短期的一個現象請問你怎麼看這件事情目前就油價的波動我們來看今年一到六月來看最高點事實上是在1月15號是83.48\n\n01:06.064 --> 01:26.476\n那我們戰爭發生的時候呢其實上6月19號最高到80.37其實這個數字也沒有達到今年的最高點隨後降下來到73.35那大家比較擔心的會是如果往下走把那個荷末斯海峽如果封鎖了那就會有比較可能帶動比較大的影響\n\n01:27.236 --> 01:47.554\n但是從昨天川普宣布兩邊停火到今天早上伊朗也同意了那整個戰爭情勢看起來是往下滑那對油價的影響目前我們還在評估但至少到了昨天是到23號掉到73.35已經到到今年的均價OK還是一個\n\n01:48.174 --> 02:10.779\n之前我們一部部長他曾經有提到給我的數字他說我們油價如果漲10%對CPI會影響0.3%這樣的數字其實是正確的嗎我們是做了兩個評估啦其中一個評估主要是我們在評估油價大概會漲多少那我們其實在這次的評估我們認為最多影響沒有到0.3是0.2\n\n02:12.679 --> 02:16.783\n會到0.2不會到0.3那基本上來講就是說油價的波動氣確實對我們CPI會有些影響那因為我覺得這邊因為看到你這邊的數位報導當中也特別提到一個狀態我們上半年的一個經濟成長的數字預計是5.35%\n\n02:32.156 --> 02:45.151\n我看央行這邊的數字Q1的時候是達到5.48%那我這邊在想說那如果說這樣整個油價整個情勢大家都覺得是短期的狀態我們為什麼下半年的經濟預測只預測1%\n\n02:47.938 --> 03:11.625\n下半年主要是充滿了不定性兩個因素一個是上半年的快速拉貨有可能會影響到下半年因為全年的供應量其實是固定的那有可能影響到下半年的出貨那第二個事情是大家對於下半年如果是在關稅政策各方面的不確定性其實是一直存在所以今年對我們來講我們是比較謹慎在看今年\n\n03:12.105 --> 03:30.470\nOK所以不確定性其實它也可能好也可能不好所以1%的狀態你覺得是不好是Worstcase狀態可能還有1%的狀態對現在是以Worstcase來估的所以是以Worstcase的狀態來做一個評估沒錯OK好理解好謝謝謝謝主委那我想接下來請一下郭智輝郭部長郭部長\n\n03:40.225 --> 04:02.484\n委員好部長好因為禮拜四我們也就教過您有關於那個伊朗這邊相關的中東相關的問題你也給了我們一些具體的數字那因為現在局勢確實變化非常的多那一下就停下來那我想這邊特別請教一下因為那個我們最近看到了一些相關的問題就是整個\n\n04:04.586 --> 04:15.955\n天然氣的問題我想先請教一下我們目前台灣的天然氣發電大概佔總體發電量的百分之多少接近那個\n\n04:18.001 --> 04:44.189\n差不多接近四成多只接近四成是不是天然氣發電量只接近四成嘛對不對那我想說以這樣的一個情況因為我們看到就是行政院2025年公佈這個河山停基之後的一個配比的狀態我這樣整個加起來狀態就燃煤29.6燃氣52跟再生能源16.3那目前我們燃氣的部分只有到四成是不是\n\n04:45.234 --> 05:01.279\n所以它這個數字當中的差距是在哪裡45%左右所以因為我看這邊的數字的時候整個加起來也是97.9%也不到100%那剩下的2.1%的部分是核能上半年發電的部分還是怎麼樣的數字\n\n05:02.335 --> 05:23.743\n因為我們這是用全年平均的數字所以當然是包括這個5月17號以前的所以說目前整個天然氣的發電在45%可是我們全年可能會到52%是這個狀態對不對平均下來會到52%所以表示我們下半年我們天然氣的用量一定會增加很多對不對\n\n05:25.223 --> 05:52.565\n會增加很多所以說針對這樣的國際情勢的變化尤其中東的部分我們更要特別的關注那尤其是部長那天有提到說當然就是像赫姆治海峽現在可能是也是順利在走可是你那時候有提到說台灣有25%的天然氣進口是透過這個海峽這邊過來的那我們對於這樣子的一個影響的時候經濟部這邊有沒有什麼更清楚的一個\n\n05:54.280 --> 06:02.231\n來規劃比方說我們接下來兩個月的天然氣的發電量然後怎麼樣去穩定這樣子的一個天然氣的一個進口\n\n06:03.519 --> 06:31.596\n這個天然氣的部分我跟委員報告我們大概價格的部分應該是我們都是採取現貨這個觀察現貨的狀況那至於說您剛才所關注的這個部分我們大概對這個中長期的契約供應商我們有跟他在聯絡那希望他能夠提前來交貨這個先穩住供應量那麼這個如果有缺口的部分呢\n\n06:32.196 --> 06:59.534\n有缺口的部分我們當然是從這個現貨的市場裡面來買進那這個主要我們還是不是只有一個地方在購買這個天然氣你說我們是多元的所以我這邊特別提到因為你說上半年我們的那個天然氣的佔比大概只有佔45%那全年要到52%的時候表示下半年的比重會非常的高你預計下半年我們天然氣的發電量比重大概要到多高才會變成全年52%\n\n07:01.555 --> 07:20.469\n報告員我稍微更正一下很抱歉剛才我們的這個同仁在跟我提示一下他說我們現在大概大概全年平均會接近50並沒有到52全年會到50不到52所以說下半年基本上還是會拉高三個百分比對不對45到\n\n07:22.170 --> 07:45.120\n或者是更高的一個部分所以說我們現在下半年的時候天然氣的量肯定是會非常的多那我在這邊也特別提到因為針對整個能源的部分我們一直有關注到像最近跟整個再生能源有兩個很相關的一個議題我這邊也特別提到一個部分一個地方的時候就是大樹的和珊光電的問題\n\n07:47.201 --> 08:02.541\n這邊是一個狀態之前的時候廠商認為是合法開發也取得居民的同意居民的時候覺得說好像並不是這麼一回事針對大樹的核戰觀念的部分我想請教經濟部這邊的立場是什麼我們後續要怎麼去解決這個問題\n\n08:03.542 --> 08:14.349\n是報告委員我想經濟部的立場只要合法合規我們就是依照合法合規去處理那因為這個案場它事實上目前是嚴重的違反這個規定\n\n08:18.812 --> 08:40.753\n高雄市政府已經對他採取的這個措施經濟部也在昨天馬上發出這個停止他再繼續進行工程的這個OK也已經發布新的一個指令出來了那我這邊想再問一個就是經濟部跟農業部請一下農業部次長一下因為那個同時跟綠能有關的部分另外就是漁電\n\n08:42.940 --> 09:10.292\n發電的一個問題那最近有一家廠商誠心綠能就是最大的漁電工程廠商也出了狀態那他們認為可能跟政策的前後不一致產生了一些這樣的關係那我想請教針對不管是光電或者是漁電的部分我們經濟部跟農業部這邊的時候是不是有一個協調的機制然後讓廠商能夠有一個從頭到尾一致性的標準去\n\n09:12.334 --> 09:31.494\n而不是之前是一種標準之後又是一種標準可以請次長回答一下謝謝委員事實上政策一直都沒有不一致完全是一致我們跟經濟部也有非常緊密的在就能源的問題在做接洽同時我們的做法都是一樣的那事實上\n\n09:32.475 --> 09:54.367\n所謂的不一致就是其實在農業我們是以農業漁業為本那綠能為加值但是現在如果這些業者他沒有以他的這個漁業或者是農業經營計畫來按照這個來進行他只要用光電的話他就會站在他的立場認為說你這個政策變來變去其實政策一直都沒有變\n\n09:54.687 --> 10:11.253\n政策發展率呢這確實是沒變可是很多的操作的細節確實是不斷的在改變包括我剛剛講的大樹的那個案子的時候他們在2020年申請的時候坦白說是沒有環評的那現在可能會有這個需要那這漁電共生當中的時候之前的時候呢\n\n10:11.653 --> 10:28.505\n可能是先發電沒有關係可是現在對於整個漁業的部分也有新的要求所以本席希望就是經濟部就掌握能源的一個政策跟整個農業部需要有很多相關的一個配套我們希望這兩個部會能夠有更有效的一個機制去做一個協調讓整個業者能夠有一個\n\n10:31.667 --> 11:00.017\n一致穩定的一個操作的一個標準而不是會面臨到很多行政上面的一些各種的調整影響到他們後續的狀態那我想說現在我們也很需要整個綠能的一個發展經濟部特別提到說台灣對於綠能是缺的這是很清楚的狀態所以我們也希望說各部會能夠有跨部會的整合能夠讓廠商真正做到對台灣的綠電有貢獻好不好是這個沒問題我們一直跟經濟部都是一致的經常在聯繫這個沒有問題\n\n11:01.417 --> 11:01.437\n好謝謝\n\n","segments":[{"start":6.838,"end":21.6,"text":"謝謝主席今天特別安排了因應國際經貿形勢變化如何協助我國產業面對台幣匯率升值及國際能源價格巨變的問題我想首先先請教一下那個國發會主委好不好劉主委"},{"start":33.037,"end":44.384,"text":"因為我在想說今天就是包括了我們央行跟經濟部都一起在 所以我覺得這問題其實特別的好那剛剛央行的副總裁還有特別提到說其實目前整個"},{"start":47.679,"end":62.523,"text":"近期的一個油價波動他覺得可能會是一個短期的一個現象請問你怎麼看這件事情目前就油價的波動我們來看今年一到六月來看最高點事實上是在1月15號是83.48"},{"start":66.064,"end":86.476,"text":"那我們戰爭發生的時候呢其實上6月19號最高到80.37其實這個數字也沒有達到今年的最高點隨後降下來到73.35那大家比較擔心的會是如果往下走把那個荷末斯海峽如果封鎖了那就會有比較可能帶動比較大的影響"},{"start":87.236,"end":107.554,"text":"但是從昨天川普宣布兩邊停火到今天早上伊朗也同意了那整個戰爭情勢看起來是往下滑那對油價的影響目前我們還在評估但至少到了昨天是到23號掉到73.35已經到到今年的均價OK 還是一個"},{"start":108.174,"end":130.779,"text":"之前我們一部部長他曾經有提到給我的數字他說我們油價如果漲10%對CPI會影響0.3%這樣的數字其實是正確的嗎我們是做了兩個評估啦其中一個評估主要是我們在評估油價大概會漲多少那我們其實在這次的評估我們認為最多影響沒有到0.3是0.2"},{"start":132.679,"end":136.783,"text":"會到0.2不會到0.3那基本上來講就是說油價的波動氣確實對我們CPI會有些影響那因為我覺得這邊因為看到你這邊的數位報導當中也特別提到一個狀態我們上半年的一個經濟成長的數字預計是5.35%"},{"start":152.156,"end":165.151,"text":"我看央行這邊的數字Q1的時候是達到5.48%那我這邊在想說那如果說這樣整個油價整個情勢大家都覺得是短期的狀態我們為什麼下半年的經濟預測只預測1%"},{"start":167.938,"end":191.625,"text":"下半年主要是充滿了不定性兩個因素一個是上半年的快速拉貨有可能會影響到下半年因為全年的供應量其實是固定的那有可能影響到下半年的出貨那第二個事情是大家對於下半年如果是在關稅政策各方面的不確定性其實是一直存在所以今年對我們來講我們是比較謹慎在看今年"},{"start":192.105,"end":210.47,"text":"OK 所以不確定性其實它也可能好也可能不好所以1%的狀態你覺得是不好是Worst case狀態可能還有1%的狀態對 現在是以Worst case來估的所以是以Worst case的狀態來做一個評估沒錯OK 好 理解好 謝謝 謝謝主委那我想接下來請一下郭智輝 郭部長郭部長"},{"start":220.225,"end":242.484,"text":"委員好部長好因為禮拜四我們也就教過您有關於那個伊朗這邊相關的中東相關的問題你也給了我們一些具體的數字那因為現在局勢確實變化非常的多那一下就停下來那我想這邊特別請教一下因為那個我們最近看到了一些相關的問題就是整個"},{"start":244.586,"end":255.955,"text":"天然氣的問題我想先請教一下我們目前台灣的天然氣發電大概佔總體發電量的百分之多少接近那個"},{"start":258.001,"end":284.189,"text":"差不多接近四成多只接近四成是不是天然氣發電量只接近四成嘛對不對那我想說以這樣的一個情況因為我們看到就是行政院2025年公佈這個河山停基之後的一個配比的狀態我這樣整個加起來狀態就燃煤29.6 燃氣52跟再生能源16.3那目前我們燃氣的部分只有到四成是不是"},{"start":285.234,"end":301.279,"text":"所以它這個數字當中的差距是在哪裡45%左右所以因為我看這邊的數字的時候整個加起來也是97.9%也不到100%那剩下的2.1%的部分是核能上半年發電的部分還是怎麼樣的數字"},{"start":302.335,"end":323.743,"text":"因為我們這是用全年平均的數字所以當然是包括這個5月17號以前的所以說目前整個天然氣的發電在45%可是我們全年可能會到52%是這個狀態對不對平均下來會到52%所以表示我們下半年我們天然氣的用量一定會增加很多對不對"},{"start":325.223,"end":352.565,"text":"會增加很多所以說針對這樣的國際情勢的變化尤其中東的部分我們更要特別的關注那尤其是部長那天有提到說當然就是像赫姆治海峽現在可能是也是順利在走可是你那時候有提到說台灣有25%的天然氣進口是透過這個海峽這邊過來的那我們對於這樣子的一個影響的時候經濟部這邊有沒有什麼更清楚的一個"},{"start":354.28,"end":362.231,"text":"來規劃 比方說我們接下來兩個月的天然氣的發電量然後怎麼樣去穩定這樣子的一個天然氣的一個進口"},{"start":363.519,"end":391.596,"text":"這個天然氣的部分我跟委員報告我們大概價格的部分應該是我們都是採取現貨這個觀察現貨的狀況那至於說您剛才所關注的這個部分我們大概對這個中長期的契約供應商我們有跟他在聯絡那希望他能夠提前來交貨這個先穩住供應量那麼這個如果有缺口的部分呢"},{"start":392.196,"end":419.534,"text":"有缺口的部分我們當然是從這個現貨的市場裡面來買進那這個主要我們還是不是只有一個地方在購買這個天然氣你說我們是多元的所以我這邊特別提到因為你說上半年我們的那個天然氣的佔比大概只有佔45%那全年要到52%的時候表示下半年的比重會非常的高你預計下半年我們天然氣的發電量比重大概要到多高才會變成全年52%"},{"start":421.555,"end":440.469,"text":"報告員我稍微更正一下很抱歉剛才我們的這個同仁在跟我提示一下他說我們現在大概大概全年平均會接近50並沒有到52全年會到50不到52所以說下半年基本上還是會拉高三個百分比對不對45到"},{"start":442.17,"end":465.12,"text":"或者是更高的一個部分所以說我們現在下半年的時候天然氣的量肯定是會非常的多那我在這邊也特別提到因為針對整個能源的部分我們一直有關注到像最近跟整個再生能源有兩個很相關的一個議題我這邊也特別提到一個部分一個地方的時候就是大樹的和珊光電的問題"},{"start":467.201,"end":482.541,"text":"這邊是一個狀態之前的時候 廠商認為是合法開發 也取得居民的同意居民的時候覺得說好像並不是這麼一回事針對大樹的核戰觀念的部分我想請教經濟部這邊的立場是什麼我們後續要怎麼去解決這個問題"},{"start":483.542,"end":494.349,"text":"是 報告委員 我想經濟部的立場只要合法合規我們就是依照合法合規去處理那因為這個案場它事實上目前是嚴重的違反這個規定"},{"start":498.812,"end":520.753,"text":"高雄市政府已經對他採取的這個措施經濟部也在昨天馬上發出這個停止他再繼續進行工程的這個OK 也已經發布新的一個指令出來了那我這邊想再問一個就是經濟部跟農業部請一下農業部次長一下因為那個同時跟綠能有關的部分另外就是漁電"},{"start":522.94,"end":550.292,"text":"發電的一個問題那最近有一家廠商誠心綠能就是最大的漁電工程廠商也出了狀態那他們認為可能跟政策的前後不一致產生了一些這樣的關係那我想請教針對不管是光電或者是漁電的部分我們經濟部跟農業部這邊的時候是不是有一個協調的機制然後讓廠商能夠有一個從頭到尾一致性的標準去"},{"start":552.334,"end":571.494,"text":"而不是之前是一種標準之後又是一種標準可以請次長回答一下謝謝委員事實上政策一直都沒有不一致完全是一致我們跟經濟部也有非常緊密的在就能源的問題在做接洽同時我們的做法都是一樣的那事實上"},{"start":572.475,"end":594.367,"text":"所謂的不一致就是其實在農業我們是以農業漁業為本那綠能為加值但是現在如果這些業者他沒有以他的這個漁業或者是農業經營計畫來按照這個來進行他只要用光電的話他就會站在他的立場認為說你這個政策變來變去其實政策一直都沒有變"},{"start":594.687,"end":611.253,"text":"政策發展率呢這確實是沒變可是很多的操作的細節確實是不斷的在改變包括我剛剛講的大樹的那個案子的時候他們在2020年申請的時候坦白說是沒有環評的那現在可能會有這個需要那這漁電共生當中的時候之前的時候呢"},{"start":611.653,"end":628.505,"text":"可能是先發電沒有關係可是現在對於整個漁業的部分也有新的要求所以本席希望就是經濟部就掌握能源的一個政策跟整個農業部需要有很多相關的一個配套我們希望這兩個部會能夠有更有效的一個機制去做一個協調讓整個業者能夠有一個"},{"start":631.667,"end":660.017,"text":"一致穩定的一個操作的一個標準而不是會面臨到很多行政上面的一些各種的調整影響到他們後續的狀態那我想說現在我們也很需要整個綠能的一個發展經濟部特別提到說台灣對於綠能是缺的這是很清楚的狀態所以我們也希望說各部會能夠有跨部會的整合能夠讓廠商真正做到對台灣的綠電有貢獻好不好是 這個沒問題我們一直跟經濟部都是一致的經常在聯繫這個沒有問題"},{"start":661.417,"end":661.437,"text":"好 謝謝"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":146,"blocks":[["鄭委員正鈐：（9時26分）謝謝主席今天特別安排「因應國際經貿情勢變化，如何協助我國產業面對臺幣匯率升值及國際能源價格遽變問題」的專題報告，首先，先請教國發會主委。"],["主席：請劉主委。"],["劉主任委員鏡清：鄭委員早。"],["鄭委員正鈐：主委好。今天包括央行和經濟部都在場，所以我覺得這個問題特別好，剛剛央行副總裁也有特別提到，近期的油價波動可能會是一個短期的現象，請問你怎麼看這件事情？"],["劉主任委員鏡清：目前就油價的波動，我們看到今年1到6月的最高點事實上是1月15日的83.48，戰爭發生之後，6月19日最高來到80.37，其實這個數字也沒有達到今年的最高點，隨後降下來到73.35，大家比較擔心的是如果往下走把荷莫茲海峽封鎖了，可能就會帶動比較大的影響。但是從昨天川普宣布兩邊停火，到今天早上伊朗也同意了，整個戰爭情勢看起來是往下滑，對油價的影響，目前我們還在評估，但至少到了23日是掉到73.35，已經掉到今年的均價，我想還是一個影響沒有那麼大的情況。"],["鄭委員正鈐：OK，因為之前經濟部部長曾經有提到一個數字，他說油價如果漲10%，對CPI會影響0.3%，這樣的數字是正確的嗎？"],["劉主任委員鏡清：我們是做了兩個評估，其中一個評估主要是我們在評估油價大概會漲多少，其實在這次的評估，我們認為最多的影響沒有到0.3%，是到0.2%。"],["鄭委員正鈐：是0.2%，不會到0.3%。基本上，油價的波動確實對我們的CPI會有些影響，你的書面報告當中也特別提到上半年的經濟成長率預估是5.35%。"],["劉主任委員鏡清：對。"],["鄭委員正鈐：我看到央行的數字是Q1達到5.48%，如果大家都覺得整個油價情勢是短期的狀態，為什麼我們下半年的經濟成長率預測只有1%？"],["劉主任委員鏡清：下半年主要是充滿了不確定性，有兩個因素，一個是上半年的快速拉貨有可能會影響到下半年，因為全年的供應量其實是固定的，所以有可能影響到下半年的出貨。第二個事情是大家對於下半年在關稅政策各方面的不確定性，其實是一直存在，所以對我們來講，我們是比較謹慎在看今年。"],["鄭委員正鈐：其實不確定性是可能好、也可能不好，所以你覺得在不好、worst case的狀態可能還有1%？"],["劉主任委員鏡清：對，現在是以worst case來估的。"],["鄭委員正鈐：所以是以worst case的狀態來做一個評估嘛？"],["劉主任委員鏡清：沒錯。"],["鄭委員正鈐：理解，謝謝主委。接下來請郭智輝部長。"],["主席：請郭部長。"],["郭部長智輝：委員好。"],["鄭委員正鈐：部長好。禮拜一時本席也請教過部長有關伊朗與中東的問題，您也給了一些具體數字，但現在局勢變化非常多，看似一下就停了，不過我還是想請教部長。最近我們看到一些與天然氣有關的問題，請問目前臺灣天然氣發電大概占總體發電量的百分之多少？"],["吳副署長志偉：差不多接近四成多。"],["鄭委員正鈐：只接近四成？天然氣發電量只接近四成，對不對？以行政院公布的2025年核三停機之後發電配比來說，整個加起來的話，燃煤29.6%，燃氣52%，再生能源16.3%，目前燃氣部分只到四成，是不是？數字差距在哪裡？"],["郭部長智輝：45%左右。"],["鄭委員正鈐：45%左右？我看整個加起來的數字是97.9%，不到100%，剩下的2.1%是上半年核能發電的部分？還是怎麼樣的數字？"],["郭部長智輝：因為我們用的是全年平均的數字，所以當然包括5月17日以前的部分。"],["鄭委員正鈐：所以目前天然氣的發電量為45%，但全年可能會到52%，對不對？"],["郭部長智輝：平均下來會到52%。"],["鄭委員正鈐：平均下來會到52%？代表下半年天然氣的用量一定會增加很多，對不對？因此，針對國際情勢變化，尤其是對中東部分我們更要特別關注。雖然現在荷姆茲海峽還可以順利通行，可是部長那時候有提到，臺灣有25%的天然氣是透過荷姆茲海峽進口過來的，所以對於可能的影響，經濟部有沒有更清楚的規劃，以確保我們接下來兩個月的天然氣發電量，並穩定天然氣進口？"],["郭部長智輝：有關天然氣的部分我跟委員報告，價格我們都採取現貨，即觀察現貨狀況。至於委員剛才所關注的部分，我們有跟中長期的契約供應商聯絡，希望能提前交貨，先穩住供應量。如果有缺口的話，當然就是從現貨市場買進，主要我們不是只從一個地方進口天然氣，而是多元的……"],["鄭委員正鈐：理解。剛剛有提到上半年天然氣的發電占比大概只有45%，但全年會到52%，表示下半年的比重會非常高。你預計下半年天然氣的發電量比重大概要到多高才會變成全年52%？"],["郭部長智輝：報告委員，我稍微更正一下。很抱歉，剛才我們的同仁跟我提示說，現在全年平均會接近50%，並沒有到52%。"],["鄭委員正鈐：全年會到50%，不到52%？"],["郭部長智輝：對。"],["鄭委員正鈐：所以下半年基本上還是會拉高三個百分比，甚或更高？"],["郭部長智輝：是的。"],["鄭委員正鈐：所以下半年天然氣的用量肯定會非常多。針對能源部分，其實我們都一直有在關注，像最近有兩個議題跟再生能源相關，我在這邊要特別提到一個，也就是大樹的和山光電問題。以這邊的狀態來說，之前廠商認為是合法開發，也取得居民的同意，但居民事後覺得並不是這麼一回事。針對大樹的和山光電問題，請問經濟部的立場是什麼？後續要怎麼去解決這問題？"],["郭部長智輝：報告委員，經濟部的立場是只要合法合規，我們就依照合法合規的方式去處理。不過目前這個案場嚴重違反規定，所以高雄市政府已經採取措施，經濟部也在昨天馬上發出停止再繼續進行工程的處分……"],["鄭委員正鈐：新的指令已經發布了，不過我想再問一個問題。請農業部次長。"],["主席：請次長。"],["鄭委員正鈐：這問題同時跟綠能有關，因為另一個就是漁電共生的發電問題。最近有一家廠商誠新綠能，是最大的漁電共生廠商也出了問題，他們認為可能與政策前後不一致有關係。不管是光電或漁電，經濟部跟農業部是不是有協調機制，讓廠商能夠有一個從頭到尾一致性的標準去follow？而不是之前是一種標準，之後又是一種標準。可不可以請次長回答一下？"],["胡次長忠一：謝謝委員。事實上政策一直都沒有不一致，完全是一致的，我們跟經濟部也就能源問題有非常緊密的接洽，且作法都是一樣的。至於所謂的不一致在於，農業部分我們以農業、漁業為本，綠能為加值，因此，如果業者沒有以農業、漁業的經營計畫來進行，只做光電的話，以他的立場會認為政策變來變去，但其實政策一直都沒有變！"],["鄭委員正鈐：以政策來發展綠能，這點確實沒變，但很多的操作細節確實不斷在改變，就以我剛剛講的大樹這個案子為例，廠商在2020年提出申請時，坦白說並沒有經過環評，但現在可能會有需要。之前的漁電共生可能可以先發電，沒有關係，不過現在在漁業部分卻有新的要求！雖然經濟部掌握能源政策，但跟農業部之間需要相關配套來配合，所以我們希望這兩個部會能有更有效的機制來做協調，讓業者能有一致且穩定的操作標準，而不是讓他們去面臨行政上的各種調整，甚至影響到他們後續的狀態。我想說的是，其實我們現在很需要發展綠能，經濟部也特別提到臺灣對於綠能是缺的，這點是很清楚的，所以希望各部會能跨部會整合，讓廠商真正做到對臺灣的綠電有貢獻，好不好？"],["胡次長忠一：是，沒問題，我們跟經濟部一直都是一致的，也經常在聯繫，這沒有問題。"],["鄭委員正鈐：謝謝。"],["胡次長忠一：謝謝委員。"],["主席：現在請林岱樺委員做詢答。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":464,"meet_id":"委員會-11-3-19-17","speakers":["謝衣鳯","鄭正鈐","林岱樺","張嘉郡","張啓楷","陳亭妃","賴瑞隆","鄭天財Sra Kacaw","邱志偉","陳超明","黃國昌","楊瓊瓔","劉書彬","涂權吉","徐欣瑩","葉元之","蔡易餘","呂玉玲","邱議瑩","牛煦庭"],"page_start":397,"meetingDate":["2025-06-25"],"gazette_id":"1146401","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1146401_00009"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期經濟委員會第17次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請國家發展委員會主任委員、經濟部部長、農業部部長及中央銀行首長就「因應國際經貿情勢\n變化，如何協助我國產業面對台幣匯率及國際能源價格遽變」進行報告，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1146401_00008"}}}