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488.282, \"end\": 490.164, \"score\": 0.982}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"些\", \"start\": 490.164, \"end\": 490.224, \"score\": 0.996}, {\"word\": \"問\"}, {\"word\": \"題\"}, {\"word\": \"好\", \"start\": 490.224, \"end\": 490.244, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"部\", \"start\": 490.244, \"end\": 490.264, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"長\"}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:00,129 --> 00:00:22,126\n主席今天能够有机会再跟各位为国效力出去谈判付出的同仁做一个面对互动学习的机会我也首先请外交部长谈判副总代表也请您一起我第一个议题是提供各位做一个参考的\n\n2\n00:00:28,491 --> 00:00:41,722\n對國外的談判不管是跨部會或者是跨領域它的範疇的深廣絕對不是我們單獨針對某個議題就能夠找到一個短期的解套方案\n\n3\n00:00:42,663 --> 00:01:03,075\n这个图表是提供我们谈判的代表或者是经济部外交部同仁它是一个方法论我们先去decompose就是说从美国的国家利益来看川普总统的关税谈判这个策略逻辑的分析把它破解拆开这个东西\n\n4\n00:01:04,232 --> 00:01:24,934\n根据这个方法论它是回路修正然后再去看看我们对应它有没有一些底线有没有一些回路修正比方来讲它本质这不仅是美国的经济问题是国安的问题当谈到国安问题就是刚才副总代表您提到的是国家战略的问题\n\n5\n00:01:25,535 --> 00:01:49,028\n那它cover了包括地缘政治、地缘经济、地缘战略、军事。地缘战略它不是单一的现象,不可以切割,它不是stovepicking的。所以它在水平的协商上就跨部会跨领域了。所以即便是产品的项目上千上万项,那如何去破解,可能逃犯的时候它是一个package。\n\n6\n00:01:49,648 --> 00:02:10,816\n那目的呢它是美国利益优先形塑它的历史定位所以个人的卓越不可预测那主导国家这是它的目的那至于方法手段各位看这个里面这是我们从美国谈判过程中间把它decompose它如何做回路包括限时增压包括\n\n7\n00:02:11,756 --> 00:02:28,621\n延长美债制裁选项甚至告诉你有个trap在那边你敢不敢面对挑战所以它这个五个回路最后回去在左下角这个位置我就提供各位建议它是一个矩阵的对应第一个是A就affordability\n\n8\n00:02:29,241 --> 00:02:44,368\naccountabilityadaptability最后achievability达到多少那右边的D就是你把系统列解或是谈判的团队列解然后去diffusediffusiondirisk\n\n9\n00:02:44,628 --> 00:03:09,901\n最后de-couple你做对应的时候最后找到一个折中妥协你可承受的这个数据作为我们谈判的一个底线的参考这种东西都要挂上AI所产生的数据资料库这个方法论我的建议是把它纳到我们外交学院做一个课程讨论大家可以共同努力的精进有了对方的方法的研究的\n\n10\n00:03:10,461 --> 00:03:34,383\n脉络那我们就是预印而不是如何反应那这个时候就把我们的底线还有我们的国防产业民间产业机械产业高科技产业通通把它纳进来把它分类套进去所以这里面像美方公布的图表从32减到20那它的税率还是以补美国的贸易赤字为它的涉及目标那\n\n11\n00:03:35,444 --> 00:03:53,201\n加上未來232要怎麼談這個方法論如果納到外交學院我們的同仁可以大家互動學習做一個參考副總代表您先回去下一個我們就談了外交部要\n\n12\n00:03:54,352 --> 00:04:12,456\n站在看到要援助俄乌啊啊这个战争出来我们是基于人道的精神啊友邦民主的价值我们提供协助这个三年半的结果实在是啊这个国破家毁三合在啊世代精英已经毁掉了那无序战争寻和平我用这个图来解释啊\n\n13\n00:04:14,005 --> 00:04:34,844\n第一个如果要谈判我们希望了解到当年2015年的2月12号的明斯克二号条款在白俄罗斯谈判当时有法国德国俄罗斯跟乌克兰成立一个欧洲的协会然后监督然后个别进去谈那谈出来的结果从2月24开打\n\n14\n00:04:35,544 --> 00:04:49,199\n其实打到六月份地面战争的情势已经就没有改变了除了高科技的运用Starlink导进去无人机各种系统可是地面战斗没有胜负了也就是说这个三年的结果\n\n15\n00:04:50,353 --> 00:05:10,241\n到这个月的24号就是三年半了现在还差十天也就是说战争的这个惨痛代价是没有赢家的那我们外交协商是提供一个最佳的磋商手段那右边这张图就是当年这个2月24开打的战场情势\n\n16\n00:05:11,081 --> 00:05:39,344\n再加上下面的明斯克二号条款的13条那这个呢欧欧谈判呢我们会要做它一个结构做点分析从美国的立场中共的角色这个欧盟的角色这个Zelensky他的态度跟欧国态度这中间美国要求是折中妥协如何换利如何谈判这个外交部要他做深入的研究那最主要就是有一点重点\n\n17\n00:05:39,804 --> 00:06:01,067\n恶乌战争给我们的经验很多人讲说今天的乌克兰明天的台湾这个例子惨痛的教训不必付第二次代价学习社会的韧性老百姓维护自由民主的决心这个我们都很肯定但是乌克兰是台湾面积的16.7倍那有一个数据很重要就是\n\n18\n00:06:01,929 --> 00:06:29,497\n我们因为高科技的发展这个AI的制造制成这个ICchip的制造是耗电所以我们台湾年度内每一个人均的耗电量是乌克兰的3.4倍可是乌克兰还有三个核电厂它的领土面积大它的供电设施的电网分布很广也就是说它的redundancy很强这一点我们台湾因为我们的\n\n19\n00:06:30,706 --> 00:06:49,162\n所有的配电输送几乎沿的都是在西海岸所以电网的强化跟社会的韧性结构它要整合将来我们可能跟我们友好的国家合作协调看看有没有技术输出或转移或合作将来的这个\n\n20\n00:06:50,339 --> 00:07:16,602\n这高电压的输送能不能走地下化因为像现在这个图光乌克兰乌东的战场就是两个台湾那至于像加萨走廊就是上角的这个失去电力没有医疗系统我们站在人道精神外交部不管是援助这个难民或者协助以色列做这些资讯分享尤其是\n\n21\n00:07:17,628 --> 00:07:34,859\n对不分国籍的难民的援助我想外交部扮演一个很重要的角色那将来要合作协助乌克兰的重建我想在电网的电力分配这是一个我们互动学习的一个角色这边以上的建议提供部长您做个参考谢谢委员\n\n22\n00:07:35,967 --> 00:07:53,780\n我想不只要列入外交學院我想請委員來上課我們盡快來安排因為剛剛提到的方法論還有現在針對俄烏戰爭的這個涉及能源還有整個韌性我覺得這個是委員會看到就是戰爭當然這個持久\n\n23\n00:07:57,749 --> 00:08:10,264\n但是這個外交還是最後要上場這個才能夠解決這個戰爭所產生的這些就是這些問題好謝謝部長\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n129\t22126\t主席今天能够有机会再跟各位为国效力出去谈判付出的同仁做一个面对互动学习的机会我也首先请外交部长谈判副总代表也请您一起我第一个议题是提供各位做一个参考的\n28491\t41722\t對國外的談判不管是跨部會或者是跨領域它的範疇的深廣絕對不是我們單獨針對某個議題就能夠找到一個短期的解套方案\n42663\t63075\t这个图表是提供我们谈判的代表或者是经济部外交部同仁它是一个方法论我们先去decompose就是说从美国的国家利益来看川普总统的关税谈判这个策略逻辑的分析把它破解拆开这个东西\n64232\t84934\t根据这个方法论它是回路修正然后再去看看我们对应它有没有一些底线有没有一些回路修正比方来讲它本质这不仅是美国的经济问题是国安的问题当谈到国安问题就是刚才副总代表您提到的是国家战略的问题\n85535\t109028\t那它cover了包括地缘政治、地缘经济、地缘战略、军事。地缘战略它不是单一的现象,不可以切割,它不是stovepicking的。所以它在水平的协商上就跨部会跨领域了。所以即便是产品的项目上千上万项,那如何去破解,可能逃犯的时候它是一个package。\n109648\t130816\t那目的呢它是美国利益优先形塑它的历史定位所以个人的卓越不可预测那主导国家这是它的目的那至于方法手段各位看这个里面这是我们从美国谈判过程中间把它decompose它如何做回路包括限时增压包括\n131756\t148621\t延长美债制裁选项甚至告诉你有个trap在那边你敢不敢面对挑战所以它这个五个回路最后回去在左下角这个位置我就提供各位建议它是一个矩阵的对应第一个是A就affordability\n149241\t164368\taccountabilityadaptability最后achievability达到多少那右边的D就是你把系统列解或是谈判的团队列解然后去diffusediffusiondirisk\n164628\t189901\t最后de-couple你做对应的时候最后找到一个折中妥协你可承受的这个数据作为我们谈判的一个底线的参考这种东西都要挂上AI所产生的数据资料库这个方法论我的建议是把它纳到我们外交学院做一个课程讨论大家可以共同努力的精进有了对方的方法的研究的\n190461\t214383\t脉络那我们就是预印而不是如何反应那这个时候就把我们的底线还有我们的国防产业民间产业机械产业高科技产业通通把它纳进来把它分类套进去所以这里面像美方公布的图表从32减到20那它的税率还是以补美国的贸易赤字为它的涉及目标那\n215444\t233201\t加上未來232要怎麼談這個方法論如果納到外交學院我們的同仁可以大家互動學習做一個參考副總代表您先回去下一個我們就談了外交部要\n234352\t252456\t站在看到要援助俄乌啊啊这个战争出来我们是基于人道的精神啊友邦民主的价值我们提供协助这个三年半的结果实在是啊这个国破家毁三合在啊世代精英已经毁掉了那无序战争寻和平我用这个图来解释啊\n254005\t274844\t第一个如果要谈判我们希望了解到当年2015年的2月12号的明斯克二号条款在白俄罗斯谈判当时有法国德国俄罗斯跟乌克兰成立一个欧洲的协会然后监督然后个别进去谈那谈出来的结果从2月24开打\n275544\t289199\t其实打到六月份地面战争的情势已经就没有改变了除了高科技的运用Starlink导进去无人机各种系统可是地面战斗没有胜负了也就是说这个三年的结果\n290353\t310241\t到这个月的24号就是三年半了现在还差十天也就是说战争的这个惨痛代价是没有赢家的那我们外交协商是提供一个最佳的磋商手段那右边这张图就是当年这个2月24开打的战场情势\n311081\t339344\t再加上下面的明斯克二号条款的13条那这个呢欧欧谈判呢我们会要做它一个结构做点分析从美国的立场中共的角色这个欧盟的角色这个Zelensky他的态度跟欧国态度这中间美国要求是折中妥协如何换利如何谈判这个外交部要他做深入的研究那最主要就是有一点重点\n339804\t361067\t恶乌战争给我们的经验很多人讲说今天的乌克兰明天的台湾这个例子惨痛的教训不必付第二次代价学习社会的韧性老百姓维护自由民主的决心这个我们都很肯定但是乌克兰是台湾面积的16.7倍那有一个数据很重要就是\n361929\t389497\t我们因为高科技的发展这个AI的制造制成这个IC chip的制造是耗电所以我们台湾年度内每一个人均的耗电量是乌克兰的3.4倍可是乌克兰还有三个核电厂它的领土面积大它的供电设施的电网分布很广也就是说它的redundancy很强这一点我们台湾因为我们的\n390706\t409162\t所有的配电输送几乎沿的都是在西海岸所以电网的强化跟社会的韧性结构它要整合将来我们可能跟我们友好的国家合作协调看看有没有技术输出或转移或合作将来的这个\n410339\t436602\t这高电压的输送能不能走地下化因为像现在这个图光乌克兰乌东的战场就是两个台湾那至于像加萨走廊就是上角的这个失去电力没有医疗系统我们站在人道精神外交部不管是援助这个难民或者协助以色列做这些资讯分享尤其是\n437628\t454859\t对不分国籍的难民的援助我想外交部扮演一个很重要的角色那将来要合作协助乌克兰的重建我想在电网的电力分配这是一个我们互动学习的一个角色这边以上的建议提供部长您做个参考谢谢委员\n455967\t473780\t我想不只要列入外交學院我想請委員來上課我們盡快來安排因為剛剛提到的方法論還有現在針對俄烏戰爭的這個涉及能源還有整個韌性我覺得這個是委員會看到就是戰爭當然這個持久\n477749\t490264\t但是這個外交還是最後要上場這個才能夠解決這個戰爭所產生的這些就是這些問題好 謝謝部長\n","txt":"主席今天能够有机会再跟各位为国效力出去谈判付出的同仁做一个面对互动学习的机会我也首先请外交部长谈判副总代表也请您一起我第一个议题是提供各位做一个参考的\n對國外的談判不管是跨部會或者是跨領域它的範疇的深廣絕對不是我們單獨針對某個議題就能夠找到一個短期的解套方案\n这个图表是提供我们谈判的代表或者是经济部外交部同仁它是一个方法论我们先去decompose就是说从美国的国家利益来看川普总统的关税谈判这个策略逻辑的分析把它破解拆开这个东西\n根据这个方法论它是回路修正然后再去看看我们对应它有没有一些底线有没有一些回路修正比方来讲它本质这不仅是美国的经济问题是国安的问题当谈到国安问题就是刚才副总代表您提到的是国家战略的问题\n那它cover了包括地缘政治、地缘经济、地缘战略、军事。地缘战略它不是单一的现象,不可以切割,它不是stovepicking的。所以它在水平的协商上就跨部会跨领域了。所以即便是产品的项目上千上万项,那如何去破解,可能逃犯的时候它是一个package。\n那目的呢它是美国利益优先形塑它的历史定位所以个人的卓越不可预测那主导国家这是它的目的那至于方法手段各位看这个里面这是我们从美国谈判过程中间把它decompose它如何做回路包括限时增压包括\n延长美债制裁选项甚至告诉你有个trap在那边你敢不敢面对挑战所以它这个五个回路最后回去在左下角这个位置我就提供各位建议它是一个矩阵的对应第一个是A就affordability\naccountabilityadaptability最后achievability达到多少那右边的D就是你把系统列解或是谈判的团队列解然后去diffusediffusiondirisk\n最后de-couple你做对应的时候最后找到一个折中妥协你可承受的这个数据作为我们谈判的一个底线的参考这种东西都要挂上AI所产生的数据资料库这个方法论我的建议是把它纳到我们外交学院做一个课程讨论大家可以共同努力的精进有了对方的方法的研究的\n脉络那我们就是预印而不是如何反应那这个时候就把我们的底线还有我们的国防产业民间产业机械产业高科技产业通通把它纳进来把它分类套进去所以这里面像美方公布的图表从32减到20那它的税率还是以补美国的贸易赤字为它的涉及目标那\n加上未來232要怎麼談這個方法論如果納到外交學院我們的同仁可以大家互動學習做一個參考副總代表您先回去下一個我們就談了外交部要\n站在看到要援助俄乌啊啊这个战争出来我们是基于人道的精神啊友邦民主的价值我们提供协助这个三年半的结果实在是啊这个国破家毁三合在啊世代精英已经毁掉了那无序战争寻和平我用这个图来解释啊\n第一个如果要谈判我们希望了解到当年2015年的2月12号的明斯克二号条款在白俄罗斯谈判当时有法国德国俄罗斯跟乌克兰成立一个欧洲的协会然后监督然后个别进去谈那谈出来的结果从2月24开打\n其实打到六月份地面战争的情势已经就没有改变了除了高科技的运用Starlink导进去无人机各种系统可是地面战斗没有胜负了也就是说这个三年的结果\n到这个月的24号就是三年半了现在还差十天也就是说战争的这个惨痛代价是没有赢家的那我们外交协商是提供一个最佳的磋商手段那右边这张图就是当年这个2月24开打的战场情势\n再加上下面的明斯克二号条款的13条那这个呢欧欧谈判呢我们会要做它一个结构做点分析从美国的立场中共的角色这个欧盟的角色这个Zelensky他的态度跟欧国态度这中间美国要求是折中妥协如何换利如何谈判这个外交部要他做深入的研究那最主要就是有一点重点\n恶乌战争给我们的经验很多人讲说今天的乌克兰明天的台湾这个例子惨痛的教训不必付第二次代价学习社会的韧性老百姓维护自由民主的决心这个我们都很肯定但是乌克兰是台湾面积的16.7倍那有一个数据很重要就是\n我们因为高科技的发展这个AI的制造制成这个IC chip的制造是耗电所以我们台湾年度内每一个人均的耗电量是乌克兰的3.4倍可是乌克兰还有三个核电厂它的领土面积大它的供电设施的电网分布很广也就是说它的redundancy很强这一点我们台湾因为我们的\n所有的配电输送几乎沿的都是在西海岸所以电网的强化跟社会的韧性结构它要整合将来我们可能跟我们友好的国家合作协调看看有没有技术输出或转移或合作将来的这个\n这高电压的输送能不能走地下化因为像现在这个图光乌克兰乌东的战场就是两个台湾那至于像加萨走廊就是上角的这个失去电力没有医疗系统我们站在人道精神外交部不管是援助这个难民或者协助以色列做这些资讯分享尤其是\n对不分国籍的难民的援助我想外交部扮演一个很重要的角色那将来要合作协助乌克兰的重建我想在电网的电力分配这是一个我们互动学习的一个角色这边以上的建议提供部长您做个参考谢谢委员\n我想不只要列入外交學院我想請委員來上課我們盡快來安排因為剛剛提到的方法論還有現在針對俄烏戰爭的這個涉及能源還有整個韌性我覺得這個是委員會看到就是戰爭當然這個持久\n但是這個外交還是最後要上場這個才能夠解決這個戰爭所產生的這些就是這些問題好 謝謝部長\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.129 --> 00:22.126\n主席今天能够有机会再跟各位为国效力出去谈判付出的同仁做一个面对互动学习的机会我也首先请外交部长谈判副总代表也请您一起我第一个议题是提供各位做一个参考的\n\n00:28.491 --> 00:41.722\n對國外的談判不管是跨部會或者是跨領域它的範疇的深廣絕對不是我們單獨針對某個議題就能夠找到一個短期的解套方案\n\n00:42.663 --> 01:03.075\n这个图表是提供我们谈判的代表或者是经济部外交部同仁它是一个方法论我们先去decompose就是说从美国的国家利益来看川普总统的关税谈判这个策略逻辑的分析把它破解拆开这个东西\n\n01:04.232 --> 01:24.934\n根据这个方法论它是回路修正然后再去看看我们对应它有没有一些底线有没有一些回路修正比方来讲它本质这不仅是美国的经济问题是国安的问题当谈到国安问题就是刚才副总代表您提到的是国家战略的问题\n\n01:25.535 --> 01:49.028\n那它cover了包括地缘政治、地缘经济、地缘战略、军事。地缘战略它不是单一的现象,不可以切割,它不是stovepicking的。所以它在水平的协商上就跨部会跨领域了。所以即便是产品的项目上千上万项,那如何去破解,可能逃犯的时候它是一个package。\n\n01:49.648 --> 02:10.816\n那目的呢它是美国利益优先形塑它的历史定位所以个人的卓越不可预测那主导国家这是它的目的那至于方法手段各位看这个里面这是我们从美国谈判过程中间把它decompose它如何做回路包括限时增压包括\n\n02:11.756 --> 02:28.621\n延长美债制裁选项甚至告诉你有个trap在那边你敢不敢面对挑战所以它这个五个回路最后回去在左下角这个位置我就提供各位建议它是一个矩阵的对应第一个是A就affordability\n\n02:29.241 --> 02:44.368\naccountabilityadaptability最后achievability达到多少那右边的D就是你把系统列解或是谈判的团队列解然后去diffusediffusiondirisk\n\n02:44.628 --> 03:09.901\n最后de-couple你做对应的时候最后找到一个折中妥协你可承受的这个数据作为我们谈判的一个底线的参考这种东西都要挂上AI所产生的数据资料库这个方法论我的建议是把它纳到我们外交学院做一个课程讨论大家可以共同努力的精进有了对方的方法的研究的\n\n03:10.461 --> 03:34.383\n脉络那我们就是预印而不是如何反应那这个时候就把我们的底线还有我们的国防产业民间产业机械产业高科技产业通通把它纳进来把它分类套进去所以这里面像美方公布的图表从32减到20那它的税率还是以补美国的贸易赤字为它的涉及目标那\n\n03:35.444 --> 03:53.201\n加上未來232要怎麼談這個方法論如果納到外交學院我們的同仁可以大家互動學習做一個參考副總代表您先回去下一個我們就談了外交部要\n\n03:54.352 --> 04:12.456\n站在看到要援助俄乌啊啊这个战争出来我们是基于人道的精神啊友邦民主的价值我们提供协助这个三年半的结果实在是啊这个国破家毁三合在啊世代精英已经毁掉了那无序战争寻和平我用这个图来解释啊\n\n04:14.005 --> 04:34.844\n第一个如果要谈判我们希望了解到当年2015年的2月12号的明斯克二号条款在白俄罗斯谈判当时有法国德国俄罗斯跟乌克兰成立一个欧洲的协会然后监督然后个别进去谈那谈出来的结果从2月24开打\n\n04:35.544 --> 04:49.199\n其实打到六月份地面战争的情势已经就没有改变了除了高科技的运用Starlink导进去无人机各种系统可是地面战斗没有胜负了也就是说这个三年的结果\n\n04:50.353 --> 05:10.241\n到这个月的24号就是三年半了现在还差十天也就是说战争的这个惨痛代价是没有赢家的那我们外交协商是提供一个最佳的磋商手段那右边这张图就是当年这个2月24开打的战场情势\n\n05:11.081 --> 05:39.344\n再加上下面的明斯克二号条款的13条那这个呢欧欧谈判呢我们会要做它一个结构做点分析从美国的立场中共的角色这个欧盟的角色这个Zelensky他的态度跟欧国态度这中间美国要求是折中妥协如何换利如何谈判这个外交部要他做深入的研究那最主要就是有一点重点\n\n05:39.804 --> 06:01.067\n恶乌战争给我们的经验很多人讲说今天的乌克兰明天的台湾这个例子惨痛的教训不必付第二次代价学习社会的韧性老百姓维护自由民主的决心这个我们都很肯定但是乌克兰是台湾面积的16.7倍那有一个数据很重要就是\n\n06:01.929 --> 06:29.497\n我们因为高科技的发展这个AI的制造制成这个ICchip的制造是耗电所以我们台湾年度内每一个人均的耗电量是乌克兰的3.4倍可是乌克兰还有三个核电厂它的领土面积大它的供电设施的电网分布很广也就是说它的redundancy很强这一点我们台湾因为我们的\n\n06:30.706 --> 06:49.162\n所有的配电输送几乎沿的都是在西海岸所以电网的强化跟社会的韧性结构它要整合将来我们可能跟我们友好的国家合作协调看看有没有技术输出或转移或合作将来的这个\n\n06:50.339 --> 07:16.602\n这高电压的输送能不能走地下化因为像现在这个图光乌克兰乌东的战场就是两个台湾那至于像加萨走廊就是上角的这个失去电力没有医疗系统我们站在人道精神外交部不管是援助这个难民或者协助以色列做这些资讯分享尤其是\n\n07:17.628 --> 07:34.859\n对不分国籍的难民的援助我想外交部扮演一个很重要的角色那将来要合作协助乌克兰的重建我想在电网的电力分配这是一个我们互动学习的一个角色这边以上的建议提供部长您做个参考谢谢委员\n\n07:35.967 --> 07:53.780\n我想不只要列入外交學院我想請委員來上課我們盡快來安排因為剛剛提到的方法論還有現在針對俄烏戰爭的這個涉及能源還有整個韌性我覺得這個是委員會看到就是戰爭當然這個持久\n\n07:57.749 --> 08:10.264\n但是這個外交還是最後要上場這個才能夠解決這個戰爭所產生的這些就是這些問題好謝謝部長\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.129,"end":22.126,"text":"主席今天能够有机会再跟各位为国效力出去谈判付出的同仁做一个面对互动学习的机会我也首先请外交部长谈判副总代表也请您一起我第一个议题是提供各位做一个参考的"},{"start":28.491,"end":41.722,"text":"對國外的談判不管是跨部會或者是跨領域它的範疇的深廣絕對不是我們單獨針對某個議題就能夠找到一個短期的解套方案"},{"start":42.663,"end":63.075,"text":"这个图表是提供我们谈判的代表或者是经济部外交部同仁它是一个方法论我们先去decompose就是说从美国的国家利益来看川普总统的关税谈判这个策略逻辑的分析把它破解拆开这个东西"},{"start":64.232,"end":84.934,"text":"根据这个方法论它是回路修正然后再去看看我们对应它有没有一些底线有没有一些回路修正比方来讲它本质这不仅是美国的经济问题是国安的问题当谈到国安问题就是刚才副总代表您提到的是国家战略的问题"},{"start":85.535,"end":109.028,"text":"那它cover了包括地缘政治、地缘经济、地缘战略、军事。地缘战略它不是单一的现象,不可以切割,它不是stovepicking的。所以它在水平的协商上就跨部会跨领域了。所以即便是产品的项目上千上万项,那如何去破解,可能逃犯的时候它是一个package。"},{"start":109.648,"end":130.816,"text":"那目的呢它是美国利益优先形塑它的历史定位所以个人的卓越不可预测那主导国家这是它的目的那至于方法手段各位看这个里面这是我们从美国谈判过程中间把它decompose它如何做回路包括限时增压包括"},{"start":131.756,"end":148.621,"text":"延长美债制裁选项甚至告诉你有个trap在那边你敢不敢面对挑战所以它这个五个回路最后回去在左下角这个位置我就提供各位建议它是一个矩阵的对应第一个是A就affordability"},{"start":149.241,"end":164.368,"text":"accountabilityadaptability最后achievability达到多少那右边的D就是你把系统列解或是谈判的团队列解然后去diffusediffusiondirisk"},{"start":164.628,"end":189.901,"text":"最后de-couple你做对应的时候最后找到一个折中妥协你可承受的这个数据作为我们谈判的一个底线的参考这种东西都要挂上AI所产生的数据资料库这个方法论我的建议是把它纳到我们外交学院做一个课程讨论大家可以共同努力的精进有了对方的方法的研究的"},{"start":190.461,"end":214.383,"text":"脉络那我们就是预印而不是如何反应那这个时候就把我们的底线还有我们的国防产业民间产业机械产业高科技产业通通把它纳进来把它分类套进去所以这里面像美方公布的图表从32减到20那它的税率还是以补美国的贸易赤字为它的涉及目标那"},{"start":215.444,"end":233.201,"text":"加上未來232要怎麼談這個方法論如果納到外交學院我們的同仁可以大家互動學習做一個參考副總代表您先回去下一個我們就談了外交部要"},{"start":234.352,"end":252.456,"text":"站在看到要援助俄乌啊啊这个战争出来我们是基于人道的精神啊友邦民主的价值我们提供协助这个三年半的结果实在是啊这个国破家毁三合在啊世代精英已经毁掉了那无序战争寻和平我用这个图来解释啊"},{"start":254.005,"end":274.844,"text":"第一个如果要谈判我们希望了解到当年2015年的2月12号的明斯克二号条款在白俄罗斯谈判当时有法国德国俄罗斯跟乌克兰成立一个欧洲的协会然后监督然后个别进去谈那谈出来的结果从2月24开打"},{"start":275.544,"end":289.199,"text":"其实打到六月份地面战争的情势已经就没有改变了除了高科技的运用Starlink导进去无人机各种系统可是地面战斗没有胜负了也就是说这个三年的结果"},{"start":290.353,"end":310.241,"text":"到这个月的24号就是三年半了现在还差十天也就是说战争的这个惨痛代价是没有赢家的那我们外交协商是提供一个最佳的磋商手段那右边这张图就是当年这个2月24开打的战场情势"},{"start":311.081,"end":339.344,"text":"再加上下面的明斯克二号条款的13条那这个呢欧欧谈判呢我们会要做它一个结构做点分析从美国的立场中共的角色这个欧盟的角色这个Zelensky他的态度跟欧国态度这中间美国要求是折中妥协如何换利如何谈判这个外交部要他做深入的研究那最主要就是有一点重点"},{"start":339.804,"end":361.067,"text":"恶乌战争给我们的经验很多人讲说今天的乌克兰明天的台湾这个例子惨痛的教训不必付第二次代价学习社会的韧性老百姓维护自由民主的决心这个我们都很肯定但是乌克兰是台湾面积的16.7倍那有一个数据很重要就是"},{"start":361.929,"end":389.497,"text":"我们因为高科技的发展这个AI的制造制成这个IC chip的制造是耗电所以我们台湾年度内每一个人均的耗电量是乌克兰的3.4倍可是乌克兰还有三个核电厂它的领土面积大它的供电设施的电网分布很广也就是说它的redundancy很强这一点我们台湾因为我们的"},{"start":390.706,"end":409.162,"text":"所有的配电输送几乎沿的都是在西海岸所以电网的强化跟社会的韧性结构它要整合将来我们可能跟我们友好的国家合作协调看看有没有技术输出或转移或合作将来的这个"},{"start":410.339,"end":436.602,"text":"这高电压的输送能不能走地下化因为像现在这个图光乌克兰乌东的战场就是两个台湾那至于像加萨走廊就是上角的这个失去电力没有医疗系统我们站在人道精神外交部不管是援助这个难民或者协助以色列做这些资讯分享尤其是"},{"start":437.628,"end":454.859,"text":"对不分国籍的难民的援助我想外交部扮演一个很重要的角色那将来要合作协助乌克兰的重建我想在电网的电力分配这是一个我们互动学习的一个角色这边以上的建议提供部长您做个参考谢谢委员"},{"start":455.967,"end":473.78,"text":"我想不只要列入外交學院我想請委員來上課我們盡快來安排因為剛剛提到的方法論還有現在針對俄烏戰爭的這個涉及能源還有整個韌性我覺得這個是委員會看到就是戰爭當然這個持久"},{"start":477.749,"end":490.264,"text":"但是這個外交還是最後要上場這個才能夠解決這個戰爭所產生的這些就是這些問題好 謝謝部長"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":160,"blocks":[["陳委員永康：（9時41分）主席，今天能夠有機會再跟各位為國效力、出去談判付出的同仁，有一個面對、互動學習的機會，首先請外交部部長，也請副總談判代表一起。我第一個議題是提供給各位做一個參考的。"],["林部長佳龍：委員好。"],["陳委員永康：大家好。對國外的談判，不管是跨部會或者是跨領域，它的範疇深廣絕對不是我們單獨針對某個議題就能夠找到一個短期的解套方案，本席這個圖表提供給我們談判的代表或者是經濟部、外交部同仁，它是一個方法論，我們先decompose，從美國的國家利益來看，把川普總統的關稅談判策略邏輯分析破解、拆開。根據這個方法論，它是迴路修正，然後再去看看我們對應它有沒有一些底線，有沒有一些迴路修正。比方說，它的本質不僅是美國的經濟問題，也是國安問題，當談到國安問題，就是剛才副總代表提到的是國家戰略問題，它cover包括地緣政治、地緣經濟、地緣戰略、軍事，它不是單一的現象，不可以切割，它不是stovepiping，所以它在水平的協商上就要跨部會、跨領域，即便是產品的項目上千、上萬項，如何去破解？可能在談判的時候它是一個package。目的是美國利益優先，形塑它的歷史定位，所以個人卓越不可預測，主導國家是他的目的。至於方法、手段，各位看這裡面，這是我們從美國談判過程中間把它decompose，看它如何做迴路，包括限時增壓、延長美債、制裁選項，甚至告訴你有個trap在那邊，你敢不敢面對挑戰，所以它這五個迴路最後會回去左下角這個位置。","我提供各位建議，它是一個矩陣的對應，第一個是A，affordability、accountability、adaptability，最後achievability達到多少，右邊的D就是你把系統裂解或是談判的團隊裂解，然後去defusion、derisk，最後decouple，你做對應的時候最後找到一個折衷妥協可承受的，這個數據作為我們談判底線的參考。這種東西都要掛上AI所產生的數據資料庫。這個方法論我建議把它納到我們外交學院做一個課程討論，大家可以共同努力精進。有了對方的方法和研究的脈絡，我們就是預應，而不是如何反應，這個時候就把我們的底線，還有把我們的國防產業、民間產業、機械產業、高科技產業統統納進來，把它分類套進去，所以這裡面像美方公布的圖表，從32%減到20%，它的稅率還是以補美國的貿易赤字為設計目標，加上未來232條款要怎麼談，這個方法論如果納到外交學院，我們的同仁可以互動學習，做為一個參考。副總代表，你先回座。","下一個我們就要談到外交部要援助俄烏戰爭，我們是基於人道精神、友邦民主價值提供協助，這三年半的結果實在是國破家毀山河在，世代精英已經毀掉了，無須戰爭尋和平。我用這個圖來解釋，第一個，如果要談判，我們希望瞭解當年2015年2月12日的明斯克二號條款，在白俄羅斯談判，當時由法國、德國、俄羅斯和烏克蘭成立一個歐洲協會監督，然後個別進去談，談出來的結果從2月24日開打，其實打到6月份，地面戰爭的情勢就已經沒有改變了，除了高科技的運用，Starlink導進去、無人機等各種系統，可是地面戰鬥沒有勝負了，也就是這三年的結果，到這個月的24日就是三年半，現在還差10天，也就是戰爭的慘痛代價是沒有贏家的。我們外交協商是提供一個最佳的磋商手段，右邊這張圖是當年2月24日開打的戰場情勢，再加上下面的明斯克二號條款的十三條。","我們對俄烏談判做一點解構分析，從美國的立場、中共的角色、歐盟的角色、Zelenskyy的態度及俄國的態度，這中間美國要求是折衷妥協、如何換利、如何談判，外交部要做深入的研究。最主要是有一個重點，俄烏戰爭給我們的經驗，很多人講今天的烏克蘭，明天的臺灣，這個例子的慘痛教訓不必付第二次代價，學習社會韌性，老百姓維護自由民主的決心，我們都很肯定。但是烏克蘭是臺灣面積的16.7倍，有一個數據很重要，我們因為高科技發展，AI的製造製程、IC 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