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0.081}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"經\"}, {\"word\": \"濟\"}, {\"word\": \"總\"}, {\"word\": \"共\", \"start\": 603.225, \"end\": 603.245, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 603.245, \"end\": 603.265, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"5\"}, {\"word\": \"5\"}, {\"word\": \"0\"}, {\"word\": \"0\"}, {\"word\": \"億\"}]}, {\"start\": 605.968, \"end\": 623.571, \"text\": \"那當時您提到的我們會有舉賽的部分達到一千零六億那但是我們當時是因為年中的時候我們對明年的這個歲季勝運的狀況還不確定但是看起來到今年八月底我們今年明年可能\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"那\", \"start\": 605.968, \"end\": 606.449, \"score\": 0.795}, {\"word\": \"當\"}, {\"word\": \"時\"}, {\"word\": \"您\", \"start\": 606.449, \"end\": 606.669, \"score\": 0.743}, {\"word\": \"提\", \"start\": 606.669, \"end\": 606.829, \"score\": 0.884}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 606.829, \"end\": 606.99, \"score\": 0.801}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 606.99, \"end\": 607.61, \"score\": 0.93}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 607.61, \"end\": 608.471, \"score\": 0.908}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, 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\"季\", \"start\": 618.164, \"end\": 618.545, \"score\": 0.78}, {\"word\": \"勝\"}, {\"word\": \"運\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 618.545, \"end\": 619.165, \"score\": 0.855}, {\"word\": \"狀\"}, {\"word\": \"況\"}, {\"word\": \"還\"}, {\"word\": \"不\", \"start\": 619.165, \"end\": 619.546, \"score\": 0.83}, {\"word\": \"確\"}, {\"word\": \"定\", \"start\": 619.546, \"end\": 620.067, \"score\": 0.832}, {\"word\": \"但\", \"start\": 620.067, \"end\": 620.207, \"score\": 0.952}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 620.207, \"end\": 620.347, \"score\": 0.859}, {\"word\": \"看\", \"start\": 620.347, \"end\": 620.748, \"score\": 0.933}, {\"word\": \"起\", \"start\": 620.748, \"end\": 621.288, \"score\": 0.955}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 621.288, \"end\": 621.448, \"score\": 0.828}, {\"word\": \"今\", \"start\": 621.448, \"end\": 621.569, \"score\": 0.799}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 621.569, \"end\": 621.749, \"score\": 0.903}, {\"word\": \"八\", \"start\": 621.749, \"end\": 621.889, \"score\": 0.971}, {\"word\": \"月\", \"start\": 621.889, \"end\": 622.109, \"score\": 0.844}, {\"word\": \"底\", \"start\": 622.109, \"end\": 622.57, \"score\": 0.93}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 622.57, \"end\": 622.73, \"score\": 0.806}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"今\", \"start\": 622.73, \"end\": 622.85, \"score\": 0.721}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 622.85, \"end\": 623.01, \"score\": 0.934}, {\"word\": \"明\", \"start\": 623.01, \"end\": 623.171, \"score\": 0.992}, {\"word\": \"年\", \"start\": 623.171, \"end\": 623.371, \"score\": 0.943}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 623.371, \"end\": 623.551, \"score\": 0.985}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 623.551, \"end\": 623.571, \"score\": 1.0}]}, {\"start\": 624.312, \"end\": 643.09, \"text\": \"不一定會比今年好但是也不會太差所以我要請問你明年會不會不需要借那麼多就明年六月份我們會還債會不會不需要借到一千零六億會不會只需要借到一半或甚至更少您的預估數字是怎麼樣因為明年稅金剩餘可能跟今年不會差異太大我希望得到您的答案\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"不\", \"start\": 624.312, \"end\": 624.392, \"score\": 0.95}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 624.392, 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0.993}, {\"word\": \"员\", \"start\": 743.794, \"end\": 744.218, \"score\": 0.986}, {\"word\": \"谢\", \"start\": 744.218, \"end\": 744.4, \"score\": 0.892}, {\"word\": \"谢\", \"start\": 744.4, \"end\": 744.521, \"score\": 0.835}, {\"word\": \"主\", \"start\": 744.521, \"end\": 744.562, \"score\": 0.531}, {\"word\": \"席\", \"start\": 744.562, \"end\": 744.582, \"score\": 0.0}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:00,111 --> 00:00:01,012\n謝謝召委我可不可以請主席長我們請陳主席長\n\n2\n00:00:20,649 --> 00:00:38,737\n委員好主席講辛苦了今天有幾位委員其實也都非常關心幾個重要的數字因為數字的差異性其實都會影響到我必須再次強調所有組計處其實一過來每一個精準\n\n3\n00:00:39,978 --> 00:01:00,251\n精準的數字都會變成我們政府施政也好或者是民間企業重要投資的指標我相信您大概聽懂我的意思跟話那我們先來看看主席處在10月8號公布9月份的物價指數今年9月份估計是1.25CPI是1.25這也是創下過去從110年4月以來4年半的最低的漲幅\n\n4\n00:01:07,915 --> 00:01:33,408\n也是已經連續5個月我們現在CPI已經低於2%的警戒值所以這個數字當然維持得很好但是組織處也表示說這會不會是暫時性的因素包括像譬如說我們中秋節今年是在10月去年是在9月所以跟同機期相比其實看起來是比較低的包括譬如說機票國內外旅遊隨著暑假旺季然後就回跌\n\n5\n00:01:33,928 --> 00:01:47,690\n所以我想我們也會評估到會不會是暫時性的因素所以通膨被壓低會不會只是曇花一現所以包括我們今年下修包括今年全年的CPI是1.88\n\n6\n00:01:49,392 --> 00:02:10,763\n那央行目前預估通膨大概今年會1.75所以我想請問一下就是說主席講央行估計是1.75那我們今年5月份預估是1.88那我們還會不會再向下調整我們預估前年是1.76明年大概也是1.64\n\n7\n00:02:14,165 --> 00:02:41,757\n今年我指的是今年因為央行估計是1.75我們在5月份預估是1.88那你預估全年度會不會再下修到目前為止1至9月是1.77然後我們全年預估是1.76然後明年是預估1.64這樣子所以明年通膨會更低對因為主要是因為\n\n8\n00:02:43,258 --> 00:03:00,195\n整個一個國際的一個油價還有一個原物料它的下降影響而且我們的品項是368項所以它範圍很大但是呢我們其實也有針對民生的一個部分分別發布是我說肉類啦\n\n9\n00:03:01,076 --> 00:03:17,113\n就是我要講我已經聽到你今年全年你也往下調整明年你也預估出來會更低CPI會更低1.6多而已好那這是好事那但是民生的物價就是我要跟我接下來我要跟主席講探討的\n\n10\n00:03:18,374 --> 00:03:43,041\n看起來我們許多數字其實非常好但是我們回過頭來看包括今年的豬肉雞肉包括我們豬肉的漲幅就達到8.7雞蛋的漲幅5.9素食麵泡麵的漲幅是2.0麵包漲幅是4.7包括我們常在吃藥的所有看醫生吃藥都會配一顆胃藥胃藥漲幅達到8.7也就是說民生用品的通膨\n\n11\n00:03:44,261 --> 00:04:01,509\n其實是高的是高的達到整年度上升2.47所以主席講就是說政府的很多數字很好但是我們更擔心人民在消費力的感受上覺得沒有啊物價都在上漲所以我覺得數字\n\n12\n00:04:03,070 --> 00:04:21,370\n事實的很多數據不斷的公布怎麼去做政策方面的調整包括經濟部農業部在物價剛剛我講的重要的民生的一些指標豬肉街我們怎麼樣去做更好的調控政府用他可以用的工具做更好的調控恐怕是我們要隨時去做更多數字的\n\n13\n00:04:22,552 --> 00:04:34,565\n微調或者是關注這些數字這是我要提醒主席講的地方主要重要民生物資的部分我們也都有公布就是所謂主要民生重要的一個17項一個民生那個\n\n14\n00:04:37,088 --> 00:05:00,020\n需求的部分還有包括局長我知道因為我今天要問的議題很多所以我只是要提醒這些數字出來之後應該轉給經濟部也好農業部也好去做一些因為民生物價很高包括豬的費用高外食族的費用高這些基本的豬肉雞肉蛋這些很高我們怎麼樣在相關部會去做一些政策上的調整\n\n15\n00:05:01,341 --> 00:05:24,459\n这个是要随时去你的数字出来就是要转给各部会说施政方向调整应该赶快去做处理好这个第二个我要请问一下主席长包括我们今年的包括实施性的经常性薪资这几年过去都是副成长好不容易从2024年开始转正现在的经常性的薪资今年度是47709\n\n16\n00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:34,703\n好不容易我們轉正成長成長了1.12%所以是持續在成長所以包括我們今年度也好整個國際局勢的轉換轉變變化也非常的快所以我想請問主計長我們今年全年度的實質經常性的薪資是不是還可以維持正成長你今年我到目前為止我看到是成長1.12%我們今年實質性的薪資是4萬\n\n17\n00:05:54,551 --> 00:05:59,275\n大概是多少會不會超過2%應該不會應該差不多1.1%那會比1.12%還高嗎高一點點而已大概是多少應該也是接近這個水準\n\n18\n00:06:14,841 --> 00:06:35,270\n差不多因為我們現在是做預測我知道我知道預測因為國際局勢的變化很快速但是你的每一個指標都關係到很多民間的投資人民的感受所以你講差不多我不知道差異是多因為有時候差0.20.30.5應該是很微小差不多1.1多\n\n19\n00:06:41,713 --> 00:07:01,506\n好這差不多那就0.01%的差距好那主席長我第三個問題要請教你總統在這次國慶的報告上他有提到就是說雖然面臨國際的局勢但是我們經濟成長仍舊是在四小龍之首我們排在第一位四小龍之第一名也超越了中國大陸我們今年利用亞洲開發銀行的報告我們經濟成長率是上收到5.1%\n\n20\n00:07:09,711 --> 00:07:22,905\n這是好事主席處在8月的時候才上修我們經濟成長率是4.45所以我們現在數字會不會去做調整你認為亞洲銀行的數據會不會過於樂觀\n\n21\n00:07:26,549 --> 00:07:44,460\n亞銀是5.1我們預估是4.45然後央行是4.5目前是這樣但是應該是會有往上升的趨勢但是是不是能夠達到5.1我們是有一點比較那你預估會是多少我們預估是4.45但是我是覺得他會超過4.5超過4.5才多0.05\n\n22\n00:07:49,944 --> 00:07:57,391\n那他的估計就太過樂觀了可是總統覺得他的數字假如報告是他的數字他不是有你的數字去近於5啦主席長5.1跟4.45或4.5其實是差距很大0.5是差距很大的\n\n23\n00:08:12,021 --> 00:08:29,114\n對所以因為以目前的趨勢它並沒有萎縮很多所以這個以一個出口的一個來講樂觀是好事但是雅英的數字是很樂觀你會不會覺得它過於樂觀所以我們是比較保守我們才4.5%所以總統是太樂觀喔\n\n24\n00:08:31,954 --> 00:09:01,466\n因為這是亞洲銀行提供的數據他只是依據這個數據來說明那你比較保守你要不要再稍微樂觀一點會再成長主席長因為我要提的您的數字是國家的望遠鏡像我們企業界就很多常常我聽到企業各產業界都在講說現在好像報現金比較好不敢太調整因為你上半年度說我們上半年我記得有一個數字說下半年能保一就不錯全年保三下半年保一\n\n25\n00:09:01,986 --> 00:09:25,637\n所以很多產業界聽到這個數字就不敢投資報現金這個都是自然的心態我也知道局勢國際局勢變化非常快但是我就要提醒您是國家的很多重要政策的望眼鏡您看好看壞每個數字都會影響到產業界所以我們一直做在觀察然後一直在評估我最後一個問題\n\n26\n00:09:26,818 --> 00:09:47,548\n所以我覺得這個政策我覺得隨時數字要隨時公佈那隨時我覺得參考國際數字央行的數字我們不能過於保守但也不能太樂觀所以怎麼樣是一個好的拿捏一個獨立機構我們應該有的能夠建立更多的公信力我要提醒主席講\n\n27\n00:09:48,428 --> 00:10:03,265\n要去做一些調整如果連總統都要用亞營的數字不是用你的數字那我就會覺得很奇怪這是我要提醒您的地方最後一個主席講我們在今年7月通過我們通過一筆特別預算就是強化社會經濟總共是5500億\n\n28\n00:10:05,968 --> 00:10:23,571\n那當時您提到的我們會有舉賽的部分達到一千零六億那但是我們當時是因為年中的時候我們對明年的這個歲季勝運的狀況還不確定但是看起來到今年八月底我們今年明年可能\n\n29\n00:10:24,312 --> 00:10:43,090\n不一定會比今年好但是也不會太差所以我要請問你明年會不會不需要借那麼多就明年六月份我們會還債會不會不需要借到一千零六億會不會只需要借到一半或甚至更少您的預估數字是怎麼樣因為明年稅金剩餘可能跟今年不會差異太大我希望得到您的答案\n\n30\n00:10:43,570 --> 00:11:09,553\n不是因為譬如說我們今年114年度剩餘但是那個是要優先還債還債裡面是1415扣掉之後他剩餘只剩下164億114年度來講但是我現在的部分我現在是以113年度這都還沒有審定我要運用他我必須要等到審計部審定之後這個這個剩餘我才能夠運用所以要等\n\n31\n00:11:09,753 --> 00:11:28,421\n我知道所以你的預估數字很重要你當時預估的數字說我們可能要取債我沒有要跟你吵架我需要知道那個數字當時你說我們要取債因為明年的數字怎麼樣還不知道現在已經十月了我們大概可以知道今年年底大概是一個什麼樣的狀況稅入的狀況大概還是稅收超徵\n\n32\n00:11:34,843 --> 00:11:50,546\n我聽財政部長他表示說今年要達到預算數是有點困難所以這個部分但是我們今年各項指標的數字是不錯局長為什麼會這樣提因為你們10月可能還會送進來一個軍購的特別預算要達到GDP的5%\n\n33\n00:11:53,047 --> 00:12:20,321\n一兆元所以那個每個我們我們的舉債的部分是我特別長期關注的部分那明年到底可以還多少這些數字都會牽動到未來我們立法院審定其他特別預算到底舉債要多少我們應該同意多少整個財政紀律是相對的重要所以我用我想我會希望知道這個數字最主要的原因在這裡如果可以的話我希望會後有機會跟我們再進一步去做更進一步的討論好不好謝謝主席\n\n34\n00:12:23,249 --> 00:12:24,582\n谢谢李委员谢谢主席\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n111\t1012\t謝謝召委我可不可以請主席長我們請陳主席長\n20649\t38737\t委員好主席講辛苦了今天有幾位委員其實也都非常關心幾個重要的數字因為數字的差異性其實都會影響到我必須再次強調所有組計處其實一過來每一個精準\n39978\t60251\t精準的數字都會變成我們政府施政也好或者是民間企業重要投資的指標我相信您大概聽懂我的意思跟話那我們先來看看主席處在10月8號公布9月份的物價指數今年9月份估計是1.25 CPI是1.25這也是創下過去從110年4月以來4年半的最低的漲幅\n67915\t93408\t也是已經連續5個月我們現在CPI已經低於2%的警戒值所以這個數字當然維持得很好但是組織處也表示說這會不會是暫時性的因素包括像譬如說我們中秋節今年是在10月去年是在9月所以跟同機期相比其實看起來是比較低的包括譬如說機票國內外旅遊隨著暑假旺季然後就回跌\n93928\t107690\t所以我想我們也會評估到會不會是暫時性的因素所以通膨被壓低會不會只是曇花一現所以包括我們今年下修包括今年全年的CPI是1.88\n109392\t130763\t那央行目前預估通膨大概今年會1.75所以我想請問一下就是說主席講央行估計是1.75那我們今年5月份預估是1.88那我們還會不會再向下調整我們預估前年是1.76明年大概也是1.64\n134165\t161757\t今年我指的是今年因為央行估計是1.75我們在5月份預估是1.88那你預估全年度會不會再下修到目前為止1至9月是1.77然後我們全年預估是1.76然後明年是預估1.64這樣子所以明年通膨會更低對因為主要是因為\n163258\t180195\t整個一個國際的一個油價還有一個原物料它的下降影響而且我們的品項是368項所以它範圍很大但是呢我們其實也有針對民生的一個部分分別發布是我說肉類啦\n181076\t197113\t就是我要講我已經聽到你今年全年你也往下調整明年你也預估出來會更低CPI會更低1.6多而已好那這是好事那但是民生的物價就是我要跟我接下來我要跟主席講探討的\n198374\t223041\t看起來我們許多數字其實非常好但是我們回過頭來看包括今年的豬肉雞肉包括我們豬肉的漲幅就達到8.7雞蛋的漲幅5.9素食麵泡麵的漲幅是2.0麵包漲幅是4.7包括我們常在吃藥的所有看醫生吃藥都會配一顆胃藥胃藥漲幅達到8.7也就是說民生用品的通膨\n224261\t241509\t其實是高的是高的達到整年度上升2.47所以主席講就是說政府的很多數字很好但是我們更擔心人民在消費力的感受上覺得沒有啊物價都在上漲所以我覺得數字\n243070\t261370\t事實的很多數據不斷的公布怎麼去做政策方面的調整包括經濟部農業部在物價剛剛我講的重要的民生的一些指標豬肉街我們怎麼樣去做更好的調控政府用他可以用的工具做更好的調控恐怕是我們要隨時去做更多數字的\n262552\t274565\t微調或者是關注這些數字這是我要提醒主席講的地方主要重要民生物資的部分我們也都有公布就是所謂主要民生重要的一個17項一個民生那個\n277088\t300020\t需求的部分還有包括 局長我知道因為我今天要問的議題很多所以我只是要提醒這些數字出來之後應該轉給經濟部也好農業部也好去做一些因為民生物價很高包括豬的費用高外食族的費用高這些基本的豬肉雞肉蛋這些很高我們怎麼樣在相關部會去做一些政策上的調整\n301341\t324459\t这个是要随时去你的数字出来就是要转给各部会说施政方向调整应该赶快去做处理好这个第二个我要请问一下主席长包括我们今年的包括实施性的经常性薪资这几年过去都是副成长好不容易从2024年开始转正现在的经常性的薪资今年度是47709\n326800\t334703\t好不容易我們轉正成長成長了1.12%所以是持續在成長所以包括我們今年度也好整個國際局勢的轉換轉變變化也非常的快所以我想請問主計長我們今年全年度的實質經常性的薪資是不是還可以維持正成長你今年我到目前為止我看到是成長1.12%我們今年實質性的薪資是4萬\n354551\t359275\t大概是多少 會不會超過2%應該不會 應該差不多1.1%那會比1.12%還高嗎高一點點而已 大概是多少應該也是接近這個水準\n374841\t395270\t差不多 因為我們現在是做預測我知道 我知道預測因為國際局勢的變化很快速但是你的每一個指標都關係到很多民間的投資 人民的感受所以你講差不多 我不知道差異是多因為有時候差0.2 0.3 0.5應該是很微小 差不多1.1多\n401713\t421506\t好 這差不多那就0.01%的差距好 那主席長我第三個問題要請教你總統在這次國慶的報告上他有提到就是說雖然面臨國際的局勢但是我們經濟成長仍舊是在四小龍之首我們排在第一位四小龍之第一名也超越了中國大陸我們今年利用亞洲開發銀行的報告我們經濟成長率是上收到5.1%\n429711\t442905\t這是好事主席處在8月的時候才上修我們經濟成長率是4.45所以我們現在數字會不會去做調整你認為亞洲銀行的數據會不會過於樂觀\n446549\t464460\t亞銀是5.1我們預估是4.45然後央行是4.5目前是這樣但是應該是會有往上升的趨勢但是是不是能夠達到5.1我們是有一點比較那你預估會是多少我們預估是4.45但是我是覺得他會超過4.5超過4.5才多0.05\n469944\t477391\t那他的估計就太過樂觀了可是總統覺得他的數字 假如報告是他的數字他不是有你的數字去近於5啦主席長5.1跟4.45或4.5其實是差距很大 0.5是差距很大的\n492021\t509114\t對 所以因為以目前的趨勢它並沒有萎縮很多所以這個以一個出口的一個來講樂觀是好事但是雅英的數字是很樂觀你會不會覺得它過於樂觀所以我們是比較保守我們才4.5%所以總統是太樂觀喔\n511954\t541466\t因為這是亞洲銀行提供的數據他只是依據這個數據來說明那你比較保守你要不要再稍微樂觀一點會再成長主席長因為我要提的您的數字是國家的望遠鏡像我們企業界就很多常常我聽到企業各產業界都在講說現在好像報現金比較好不敢太調整因為你上半年度說我們上半年我記得有一個數字說下半年能保一就不錯全年保三下半年保一\n541986\t565637\t所以很多產業界聽到這個數字就不敢投資報現金這個都是自然的心態我也知道局勢國際局勢變化非常快但是我就要提醒您是國家的很多重要政策的望眼鏡您看好看壞每個數字都會影響到產業界所以我們一直做在觀察然後一直在評估我最後一個問題\n566818\t587548\t所以我覺得這個政策我覺得隨時數字要隨時公佈那隨時我覺得參考國際數字央行的數字我們不能過於保守但也不能太樂觀所以怎麼樣是一個好的拿捏一個獨立機構我們應該有的能夠建立更多的公信力我要提醒主席講\n588428\t603265\t要去做一些調整如果連總統都要用亞營的數字不是用你的數字那我就會覺得很奇怪這是我要提醒您的地方最後一個主席講我們在今年7月通過我們通過一筆特別預算就是強化社會經濟總共是5500億\n605968\t623571\t那當時您提到的我們會有舉賽的部分達到一千零六億那但是我們當時是因為年中的時候我們對明年的這個歲季勝運的狀況還不確定但是看起來到今年八月底我們今年明年可能\n624312\t643090\t不一定會比今年好但是也不會太差所以我要請問你明年會不會不需要借那麼多就明年六月份我們會還債會不會不需要借到一千零六億會不會只需要借到一半或甚至更少您的預估數字是怎麼樣因為明年稅金剩餘可能跟今年不會差異太大我希望得到您的答案\n643570\t669553\t不是因為譬如說我們今年114年度剩餘但是那個是要優先還債還債裡面是1415 扣掉之後他剩餘只剩下164億114年度來講但是我現在的部分我現在是以113年度這都還沒有審定我要運用他我必須要等到審計部審定之後這個這個剩餘我才能夠運用所以要等\n669753\t688421\t我知道所以你的預估數字很重要你當時預估的數字說我們可能要取債我沒有要跟你吵架我需要知道那個數字當時你說我們要取債因為明年的數字怎麼樣還不知道現在已經十月了我們大概可以知道今年年底大概是一個什麼樣的狀況稅入的狀況大概還是稅收超徵\n694843\t710546\t我聽財政部長他表示說今年要達到預算數是有點困難所以這個部分但是我們今年各項指標的數字是不錯局長為什麼會這樣提因為你們10月可能還會送進來一個軍購的特別預算要達到GDP的5%\n713047\t740321\t一兆元所以那個每個我們我們的舉債的部分是我特別長期關注的部分那明年到底可以還多少這些數字都會牽動到未來我們立法院審定其他特別預算到底舉債要多少我們應該同意多少整個財政紀律是相對的重要所以我用我想我會希望知道這個數字最主要的原因在這裡如果可以的話我希望會後有機會跟我們再進一步去做更進一步的討論好不好謝謝主席\n743249\t744582\t谢谢李委员谢谢主席\n","txt":"謝謝召委我可不可以請主席長我們請陳主席長\n委員好主席講辛苦了今天有幾位委員其實也都非常關心幾個重要的數字因為數字的差異性其實都會影響到我必須再次強調所有組計處其實一過來每一個精準\n精準的數字都會變成我們政府施政也好或者是民間企業重要投資的指標我相信您大概聽懂我的意思跟話那我們先來看看主席處在10月8號公布9月份的物價指數今年9月份估計是1.25 CPI是1.25這也是創下過去從110年4月以來4年半的最低的漲幅\n也是已經連續5個月我們現在CPI已經低於2%的警戒值所以這個數字當然維持得很好但是組織處也表示說這會不會是暫時性的因素包括像譬如說我們中秋節今年是在10月去年是在9月所以跟同機期相比其實看起來是比較低的包括譬如說機票國內外旅遊隨著暑假旺季然後就回跌\n所以我想我們也會評估到會不會是暫時性的因素所以通膨被壓低會不會只是曇花一現所以包括我們今年下修包括今年全年的CPI是1.88\n那央行目前預估通膨大概今年會1.75所以我想請問一下就是說主席講央行估計是1.75那我們今年5月份預估是1.88那我們還會不會再向下調整我們預估前年是1.76明年大概也是1.64\n今年我指的是今年因為央行估計是1.75我們在5月份預估是1.88那你預估全年度會不會再下修到目前為止1至9月是1.77然後我們全年預估是1.76然後明年是預估1.64這樣子所以明年通膨會更低對因為主要是因為\n整個一個國際的一個油價還有一個原物料它的下降影響而且我們的品項是368項所以它範圍很大但是呢我們其實也有針對民生的一個部分分別發布是我說肉類啦\n就是我要講我已經聽到你今年全年你也往下調整明年你也預估出來會更低CPI會更低1.6多而已好那這是好事那但是民生的物價就是我要跟我接下來我要跟主席講探討的\n看起來我們許多數字其實非常好但是我們回過頭來看包括今年的豬肉雞肉包括我們豬肉的漲幅就達到8.7雞蛋的漲幅5.9素食麵泡麵的漲幅是2.0麵包漲幅是4.7包括我們常在吃藥的所有看醫生吃藥都會配一顆胃藥胃藥漲幅達到8.7也就是說民生用品的通膨\n其實是高的是高的達到整年度上升2.47所以主席講就是說政府的很多數字很好但是我們更擔心人民在消費力的感受上覺得沒有啊物價都在上漲所以我覺得數字\n事實的很多數據不斷的公布怎麼去做政策方面的調整包括經濟部農業部在物價剛剛我講的重要的民生的一些指標豬肉街我們怎麼樣去做更好的調控政府用他可以用的工具做更好的調控恐怕是我們要隨時去做更多數字的\n微調或者是關注這些數字這是我要提醒主席講的地方主要重要民生物資的部分我們也都有公布就是所謂主要民生重要的一個17項一個民生那個\n需求的部分還有包括 局長我知道因為我今天要問的議題很多所以我只是要提醒這些數字出來之後應該轉給經濟部也好農業部也好去做一些因為民生物價很高包括豬的費用高外食族的費用高這些基本的豬肉雞肉蛋這些很高我們怎麼樣在相關部會去做一些政策上的調整\n这个是要随时去你的数字出来就是要转给各部会说施政方向调整应该赶快去做处理好这个第二个我要请问一下主席长包括我们今年的包括实施性的经常性薪资这几年过去都是副成长好不容易从2024年开始转正现在的经常性的薪资今年度是47709\n好不容易我們轉正成長成長了1.12%所以是持續在成長所以包括我們今年度也好整個國際局勢的轉換轉變變化也非常的快所以我想請問主計長我們今年全年度的實質經常性的薪資是不是還可以維持正成長你今年我到目前為止我看到是成長1.12%我們今年實質性的薪資是4萬\n大概是多少 會不會超過2%應該不會 應該差不多1.1%那會比1.12%還高嗎高一點點而已 大概是多少應該也是接近這個水準\n差不多 因為我們現在是做預測我知道 我知道預測因為國際局勢的變化很快速但是你的每一個指標都關係到很多民間的投資 人民的感受所以你講差不多 我不知道差異是多因為有時候差0.2 0.3 0.5應該是很微小 差不多1.1多\n好 這差不多那就0.01%的差距好 那主席長我第三個問題要請教你總統在這次國慶的報告上他有提到就是說雖然面臨國際的局勢但是我們經濟成長仍舊是在四小龍之首我們排在第一位四小龍之第一名也超越了中國大陸我們今年利用亞洲開發銀行的報告我們經濟成長率是上收到5.1%\n這是好事主席處在8月的時候才上修我們經濟成長率是4.45所以我們現在數字會不會去做調整你認為亞洲銀行的數據會不會過於樂觀\n亞銀是5.1我們預估是4.45然後央行是4.5目前是這樣但是應該是會有往上升的趨勢但是是不是能夠達到5.1我們是有一點比較那你預估會是多少我們預估是4.45但是我是覺得他會超過4.5超過4.5才多0.05\n那他的估計就太過樂觀了可是總統覺得他的數字 假如報告是他的數字他不是有你的數字去近於5啦主席長5.1跟4.45或4.5其實是差距很大 0.5是差距很大的\n對 所以因為以目前的趨勢它並沒有萎縮很多所以這個以一個出口的一個來講樂觀是好事但是雅英的數字是很樂觀你會不會覺得它過於樂觀所以我們是比較保守我們才4.5%所以總統是太樂觀喔\n因為這是亞洲銀行提供的數據他只是依據這個數據來說明那你比較保守你要不要再稍微樂觀一點會再成長主席長因為我要提的您的數字是國家的望遠鏡像我們企業界就很多常常我聽到企業各產業界都在講說現在好像報現金比較好不敢太調整因為你上半年度說我們上半年我記得有一個數字說下半年能保一就不錯全年保三下半年保一\n所以很多產業界聽到這個數字就不敢投資報現金這個都是自然的心態我也知道局勢國際局勢變化非常快但是我就要提醒您是國家的很多重要政策的望眼鏡您看好看壞每個數字都會影響到產業界所以我們一直做在觀察然後一直在評估我最後一個問題\n所以我覺得這個政策我覺得隨時數字要隨時公佈那隨時我覺得參考國際數字央行的數字我們不能過於保守但也不能太樂觀所以怎麼樣是一個好的拿捏一個獨立機構我們應該有的能夠建立更多的公信力我要提醒主席講\n要去做一些調整如果連總統都要用亞營的數字不是用你的數字那我就會覺得很奇怪這是我要提醒您的地方最後一個主席講我們在今年7月通過我們通過一筆特別預算就是強化社會經濟總共是5500億\n那當時您提到的我們會有舉賽的部分達到一千零六億那但是我們當時是因為年中的時候我們對明年的這個歲季勝運的狀況還不確定但是看起來到今年八月底我們今年明年可能\n不一定會比今年好但是也不會太差所以我要請問你明年會不會不需要借那麼多就明年六月份我們會還債會不會不需要借到一千零六億會不會只需要借到一半或甚至更少您的預估數字是怎麼樣因為明年稅金剩餘可能跟今年不會差異太大我希望得到您的答案\n不是因為譬如說我們今年114年度剩餘但是那個是要優先還債還債裡面是1415 扣掉之後他剩餘只剩下164億114年度來講但是我現在的部分我現在是以113年度這都還沒有審定我要運用他我必須要等到審計部審定之後這個這個剩餘我才能夠運用所以要等\n我知道所以你的預估數字很重要你當時預估的數字說我們可能要取債我沒有要跟你吵架我需要知道那個數字當時你說我們要取債因為明年的數字怎麼樣還不知道現在已經十月了我們大概可以知道今年年底大概是一個什麼樣的狀況稅入的狀況大概還是稅收超徵\n我聽財政部長他表示說今年要達到預算數是有點困難所以這個部分但是我們今年各項指標的數字是不錯局長為什麼會這樣提因為你們10月可能還會送進來一個軍購的特別預算要達到GDP的5%\n一兆元所以那個每個我們我們的舉債的部分是我特別長期關注的部分那明年到底可以還多少這些數字都會牽動到未來我們立法院審定其他特別預算到底舉債要多少我們應該同意多少整個財政紀律是相對的重要所以我用我想我會希望知道這個數字最主要的原因在這裡如果可以的話我希望會後有機會跟我們再進一步去做更進一步的討論好不好謝謝主席\n谢谢李委员谢谢主席\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.111 --> 00:01.012\n謝謝召委我可不可以請主席長我們請陳主席長\n\n00:20.649 --> 00:38.737\n委員好主席講辛苦了今天有幾位委員其實也都非常關心幾個重要的數字因為數字的差異性其實都會影響到我必須再次強調所有組計處其實一過來每一個精準\n\n00:39.978 --> 01:00.251\n精準的數字都會變成我們政府施政也好或者是民間企業重要投資的指標我相信您大概聽懂我的意思跟話那我們先來看看主席處在10月8號公布9月份的物價指數今年9月份估計是1.25CPI是1.25這也是創下過去從110年4月以來4年半的最低的漲幅\n\n01:07.915 --> 01:33.408\n也是已經連續5個月我們現在CPI已經低於2%的警戒值所以這個數字當然維持得很好但是組織處也表示說這會不會是暫時性的因素包括像譬如說我們中秋節今年是在10月去年是在9月所以跟同機期相比其實看起來是比較低的包括譬如說機票國內外旅遊隨著暑假旺季然後就回跌\n\n01:33.928 --> 01:47.690\n所以我想我們也會評估到會不會是暫時性的因素所以通膨被壓低會不會只是曇花一現所以包括我們今年下修包括今年全年的CPI是1.88\n\n01:49.392 --> 02:10.763\n那央行目前預估通膨大概今年會1.75所以我想請問一下就是說主席講央行估計是1.75那我們今年5月份預估是1.88那我們還會不會再向下調整我們預估前年是1.76明年大概也是1.64\n\n02:14.165 --> 02:41.757\n今年我指的是今年因為央行估計是1.75我們在5月份預估是1.88那你預估全年度會不會再下修到目前為止1至9月是1.77然後我們全年預估是1.76然後明年是預估1.64這樣子所以明年通膨會更低對因為主要是因為\n\n02:43.258 --> 03:00.195\n整個一個國際的一個油價還有一個原物料它的下降影響而且我們的品項是368項所以它範圍很大但是呢我們其實也有針對民生的一個部分分別發布是我說肉類啦\n\n03:01.076 --> 03:17.113\n就是我要講我已經聽到你今年全年你也往下調整明年你也預估出來會更低CPI會更低1.6多而已好那這是好事那但是民生的物價就是我要跟我接下來我要跟主席講探討的\n\n03:18.374 --> 03:43.041\n看起來我們許多數字其實非常好但是我們回過頭來看包括今年的豬肉雞肉包括我們豬肉的漲幅就達到8.7雞蛋的漲幅5.9素食麵泡麵的漲幅是2.0麵包漲幅是4.7包括我們常在吃藥的所有看醫生吃藥都會配一顆胃藥胃藥漲幅達到8.7也就是說民生用品的通膨\n\n03:44.261 --> 04:01.509\n其實是高的是高的達到整年度上升2.47所以主席講就是說政府的很多數字很好但是我們更擔心人民在消費力的感受上覺得沒有啊物價都在上漲所以我覺得數字\n\n04:03.070 --> 04:21.370\n事實的很多數據不斷的公布怎麼去做政策方面的調整包括經濟部農業部在物價剛剛我講的重要的民生的一些指標豬肉街我們怎麼樣去做更好的調控政府用他可以用的工具做更好的調控恐怕是我們要隨時去做更多數字的\n\n04:22.552 --> 04:34.565\n微調或者是關注這些數字這是我要提醒主席講的地方主要重要民生物資的部分我們也都有公布就是所謂主要民生重要的一個17項一個民生那個\n\n04:37.088 --> 05:00.020\n需求的部分還有包括局長我知道因為我今天要問的議題很多所以我只是要提醒這些數字出來之後應該轉給經濟部也好農業部也好去做一些因為民生物價很高包括豬的費用高外食族的費用高這些基本的豬肉雞肉蛋這些很高我們怎麼樣在相關部會去做一些政策上的調整\n\n05:01.341 --> 05:24.459\n这个是要随时去你的数字出来就是要转给各部会说施政方向调整应该赶快去做处理好这个第二个我要请问一下主席长包括我们今年的包括实施性的经常性薪资这几年过去都是副成长好不容易从2024年开始转正现在的经常性的薪资今年度是47709\n\n05:26.800 --> 05:34.703\n好不容易我們轉正成長成長了1.12%所以是持續在成長所以包括我們今年度也好整個國際局勢的轉換轉變變化也非常的快所以我想請問主計長我們今年全年度的實質經常性的薪資是不是還可以維持正成長你今年我到目前為止我看到是成長1.12%我們今年實質性的薪資是4萬\n\n05:54.551 --> 05:59.275\n大概是多少會不會超過2%應該不會應該差不多1.1%那會比1.12%還高嗎高一點點而已大概是多少應該也是接近這個水準\n\n06:14.841 --> 06:35.270\n差不多因為我們現在是做預測我知道我知道預測因為國際局勢的變化很快速但是你的每一個指標都關係到很多民間的投資人民的感受所以你講差不多我不知道差異是多因為有時候差0.20.30.5應該是很微小差不多1.1多\n\n06:41.713 --> 07:01.506\n好這差不多那就0.01%的差距好那主席長我第三個問題要請教你總統在這次國慶的報告上他有提到就是說雖然面臨國際的局勢但是我們經濟成長仍舊是在四小龍之首我們排在第一位四小龍之第一名也超越了中國大陸我們今年利用亞洲開發銀行的報告我們經濟成長率是上收到5.1%\n\n07:09.711 --> 07:22.905\n這是好事主席處在8月的時候才上修我們經濟成長率是4.45所以我們現在數字會不會去做調整你認為亞洲銀行的數據會不會過於樂觀\n\n07:26.549 --> 07:44.460\n亞銀是5.1我們預估是4.45然後央行是4.5目前是這樣但是應該是會有往上升的趨勢但是是不是能夠達到5.1我們是有一點比較那你預估會是多少我們預估是4.45但是我是覺得他會超過4.5超過4.5才多0.05\n\n07:49.944 --> 07:57.391\n那他的估計就太過樂觀了可是總統覺得他的數字假如報告是他的數字他不是有你的數字去近於5啦主席長5.1跟4.45或4.5其實是差距很大0.5是差距很大的\n\n08:12.021 --> 08:29.114\n對所以因為以目前的趨勢它並沒有萎縮很多所以這個以一個出口的一個來講樂觀是好事但是雅英的數字是很樂觀你會不會覺得它過於樂觀所以我們是比較保守我們才4.5%所以總統是太樂觀喔\n\n08:31.954 --> 09:01.466\n因為這是亞洲銀行提供的數據他只是依據這個數據來說明那你比較保守你要不要再稍微樂觀一點會再成長主席長因為我要提的您的數字是國家的望遠鏡像我們企業界就很多常常我聽到企業各產業界都在講說現在好像報現金比較好不敢太調整因為你上半年度說我們上半年我記得有一個數字說下半年能保一就不錯全年保三下半年保一\n\n09:01.986 --> 09:25.637\n所以很多產業界聽到這個數字就不敢投資報現金這個都是自然的心態我也知道局勢國際局勢變化非常快但是我就要提醒您是國家的很多重要政策的望眼鏡您看好看壞每個數字都會影響到產業界所以我們一直做在觀察然後一直在評估我最後一個問題\n\n09:26.818 --> 09:47.548\n所以我覺得這個政策我覺得隨時數字要隨時公佈那隨時我覺得參考國際數字央行的數字我們不能過於保守但也不能太樂觀所以怎麼樣是一個好的拿捏一個獨立機構我們應該有的能夠建立更多的公信力我要提醒主席講\n\n09:48.428 --> 10:03.265\n要去做一些調整如果連總統都要用亞營的數字不是用你的數字那我就會覺得很奇怪這是我要提醒您的地方最後一個主席講我們在今年7月通過我們通過一筆特別預算就是強化社會經濟總共是5500億\n\n10:05.968 --> 10:23.571\n那當時您提到的我們會有舉賽的部分達到一千零六億那但是我們當時是因為年中的時候我們對明年的這個歲季勝運的狀況還不確定但是看起來到今年八月底我們今年明年可能\n\n10:24.312 --> 10:43.090\n不一定會比今年好但是也不會太差所以我要請問你明年會不會不需要借那麼多就明年六月份我們會還債會不會不需要借到一千零六億會不會只需要借到一半或甚至更少您的預估數字是怎麼樣因為明年稅金剩餘可能跟今年不會差異太大我希望得到您的答案\n\n10:43.570 --> 11:09.553\n不是因為譬如說我們今年114年度剩餘但是那個是要優先還債還債裡面是1415扣掉之後他剩餘只剩下164億114年度來講但是我現在的部分我現在是以113年度這都還沒有審定我要運用他我必須要等到審計部審定之後這個這個剩餘我才能夠運用所以要等\n\n11:09.753 --> 11:28.421\n我知道所以你的預估數字很重要你當時預估的數字說我們可能要取債我沒有要跟你吵架我需要知道那個數字當時你說我們要取債因為明年的數字怎麼樣還不知道現在已經十月了我們大概可以知道今年年底大概是一個什麼樣的狀況稅入的狀況大概還是稅收超徵\n\n11:34.843 --> 11:50.546\n我聽財政部長他表示說今年要達到預算數是有點困難所以這個部分但是我們今年各項指標的數字是不錯局長為什麼會這樣提因為你們10月可能還會送進來一個軍購的特別預算要達到GDP的5%\n\n11:53.047 --> 12:20.321\n一兆元所以那個每個我們我們的舉債的部分是我特別長期關注的部分那明年到底可以還多少這些數字都會牽動到未來我們立法院審定其他特別預算到底舉債要多少我們應該同意多少整個財政紀律是相對的重要所以我用我想我會希望知道這個數字最主要的原因在這裡如果可以的話我希望會後有機會跟我們再進一步去做更進一步的討論好不好謝謝主席\n\n12:23.249 --> 12:24.582\n谢谢李委员谢谢主席\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.111,"end":1.012,"text":"謝謝召委我可不可以請主席長我們請陳主席長"},{"start":20.649,"end":38.737,"text":"委員好主席講辛苦了今天有幾位委員其實也都非常關心幾個重要的數字因為數字的差異性其實都會影響到我必須再次強調所有組計處其實一過來每一個精準"},{"start":39.978,"end":60.251,"text":"精準的數字都會變成我們政府施政也好或者是民間企業重要投資的指標我相信您大概聽懂我的意思跟話那我們先來看看主席處在10月8號公布9月份的物價指數今年9月份估計是1.25 CPI是1.25這也是創下過去從110年4月以來4年半的最低的漲幅"},{"start":67.915,"end":93.408,"text":"也是已經連續5個月我們現在CPI已經低於2%的警戒值所以這個數字當然維持得很好但是組織處也表示說這會不會是暫時性的因素包括像譬如說我們中秋節今年是在10月去年是在9月所以跟同機期相比其實看起來是比較低的包括譬如說機票國內外旅遊隨著暑假旺季然後就回跌"},{"start":93.928,"end":107.69,"text":"所以我想我們也會評估到會不會是暫時性的因素所以通膨被壓低會不會只是曇花一現所以包括我們今年下修包括今年全年的CPI是1.88"},{"start":109.392,"end":130.763,"text":"那央行目前預估通膨大概今年會1.75所以我想請問一下就是說主席講央行估計是1.75那我們今年5月份預估是1.88那我們還會不會再向下調整我們預估前年是1.76明年大概也是1.64"},{"start":134.165,"end":161.757,"text":"今年我指的是今年因為央行估計是1.75我們在5月份預估是1.88那你預估全年度會不會再下修到目前為止1至9月是1.77然後我們全年預估是1.76然後明年是預估1.64這樣子所以明年通膨會更低對因為主要是因為"},{"start":163.258,"end":180.195,"text":"整個一個國際的一個油價還有一個原物料它的下降影響而且我們的品項是368項所以它範圍很大但是呢我們其實也有針對民生的一個部分分別發布是我說肉類啦"},{"start":181.076,"end":197.113,"text":"就是我要講我已經聽到你今年全年你也往下調整明年你也預估出來會更低CPI會更低1.6多而已好那這是好事那但是民生的物價就是我要跟我接下來我要跟主席講探討的"},{"start":198.374,"end":223.041,"text":"看起來我們許多數字其實非常好但是我們回過頭來看包括今年的豬肉雞肉包括我們豬肉的漲幅就達到8.7雞蛋的漲幅5.9素食麵泡麵的漲幅是2.0麵包漲幅是4.7包括我們常在吃藥的所有看醫生吃藥都會配一顆胃藥胃藥漲幅達到8.7也就是說民生用品的通膨"},{"start":224.261,"end":241.509,"text":"其實是高的是高的達到整年度上升2.47所以主席講就是說政府的很多數字很好但是我們更擔心人民在消費力的感受上覺得沒有啊物價都在上漲所以我覺得數字"},{"start":243.07,"end":261.37,"text":"事實的很多數據不斷的公布怎麼去做政策方面的調整包括經濟部農業部在物價剛剛我講的重要的民生的一些指標豬肉街我們怎麼樣去做更好的調控政府用他可以用的工具做更好的調控恐怕是我們要隨時去做更多數字的"},{"start":262.552,"end":274.565,"text":"微調或者是關注這些數字這是我要提醒主席講的地方主要重要民生物資的部分我們也都有公布就是所謂主要民生重要的一個17項一個民生那個"},{"start":277.088,"end":300.02,"text":"需求的部分還有包括 局長我知道因為我今天要問的議題很多所以我只是要提醒這些數字出來之後應該轉給經濟部也好農業部也好去做一些因為民生物價很高包括豬的費用高外食族的費用高這些基本的豬肉雞肉蛋這些很高我們怎麼樣在相關部會去做一些政策上的調整"},{"start":301.341,"end":324.459,"text":"这个是要随时去你的数字出来就是要转给各部会说施政方向调整应该赶快去做处理好这个第二个我要请问一下主席长包括我们今年的包括实施性的经常性薪资这几年过去都是副成长好不容易从2024年开始转正现在的经常性的薪资今年度是47709"},{"start":326.8,"end":334.703,"text":"好不容易我們轉正成長成長了1.12%所以是持續在成長所以包括我們今年度也好整個國際局勢的轉換轉變變化也非常的快所以我想請問主計長我們今年全年度的實質經常性的薪資是不是還可以維持正成長你今年我到目前為止我看到是成長1.12%我們今年實質性的薪資是4萬"},{"start":354.551,"end":359.275,"text":"大概是多少 會不會超過2%應該不會 應該差不多1.1%那會比1.12%還高嗎高一點點而已 大概是多少應該也是接近這個水準"},{"start":374.841,"end":395.27,"text":"差不多 因為我們現在是做預測我知道 我知道預測因為國際局勢的變化很快速但是你的每一個指標都關係到很多民間的投資 人民的感受所以你講差不多 我不知道差異是多因為有時候差0.2 0.3 0.5應該是很微小 差不多1.1多"},{"start":401.713,"end":421.506,"text":"好 這差不多那就0.01%的差距好 那主席長我第三個問題要請教你總統在這次國慶的報告上他有提到就是說雖然面臨國際的局勢但是我們經濟成長仍舊是在四小龍之首我們排在第一位四小龍之第一名也超越了中國大陸我們今年利用亞洲開發銀行的報告我們經濟成長率是上收到5.1%"},{"start":429.711,"end":442.905,"text":"這是好事主席處在8月的時候才上修我們經濟成長率是4.45所以我們現在數字會不會去做調整你認為亞洲銀行的數據會不會過於樂觀"},{"start":446.549,"end":464.46,"text":"亞銀是5.1我們預估是4.45然後央行是4.5目前是這樣但是應該是會有往上升的趨勢但是是不是能夠達到5.1我們是有一點比較那你預估會是多少我們預估是4.45但是我是覺得他會超過4.5超過4.5才多0.05"},{"start":469.944,"end":477.391,"text":"那他的估計就太過樂觀了可是總統覺得他的數字 假如報告是他的數字他不是有你的數字去近於5啦主席長5.1跟4.45或4.5其實是差距很大 0.5是差距很大的"},{"start":492.021,"end":509.114,"text":"對 所以因為以目前的趨勢它並沒有萎縮很多所以這個以一個出口的一個來講樂觀是好事但是雅英的數字是很樂觀你會不會覺得它過於樂觀所以我們是比較保守我們才4.5%所以總統是太樂觀喔"},{"start":511.954,"end":541.466,"text":"因為這是亞洲銀行提供的數據他只是依據這個數據來說明那你比較保守你要不要再稍微樂觀一點會再成長主席長因為我要提的您的數字是國家的望遠鏡像我們企業界就很多常常我聽到企業各產業界都在講說現在好像報現金比較好不敢太調整因為你上半年度說我們上半年我記得有一個數字說下半年能保一就不錯全年保三下半年保一"},{"start":541.986,"end":565.637,"text":"所以很多產業界聽到這個數字就不敢投資報現金這個都是自然的心態我也知道局勢國際局勢變化非常快但是我就要提醒您是國家的很多重要政策的望眼鏡您看好看壞每個數字都會影響到產業界所以我們一直做在觀察然後一直在評估我最後一個問題"},{"start":566.818,"end":587.548,"text":"所以我覺得這個政策我覺得隨時數字要隨時公佈那隨時我覺得參考國際數字央行的數字我們不能過於保守但也不能太樂觀所以怎麼樣是一個好的拿捏一個獨立機構我們應該有的能夠建立更多的公信力我要提醒主席講"},{"start":588.428,"end":603.265,"text":"要去做一些調整如果連總統都要用亞營的數字不是用你的數字那我就會覺得很奇怪這是我要提醒您的地方最後一個主席講我們在今年7月通過我們通過一筆特別預算就是強化社會經濟總共是5500億"},{"start":605.968,"end":623.571,"text":"那當時您提到的我們會有舉賽的部分達到一千零六億那但是我們當時是因為年中的時候我們對明年的這個歲季勝運的狀況還不確定但是看起來到今年八月底我們今年明年可能"},{"start":624.312,"end":643.09,"text":"不一定會比今年好但是也不會太差所以我要請問你明年會不會不需要借那麼多就明年六月份我們會還債會不會不需要借到一千零六億會不會只需要借到一半或甚至更少您的預估數字是怎麼樣因為明年稅金剩餘可能跟今年不會差異太大我希望得到您的答案"},{"start":643.57,"end":669.553,"text":"不是因為譬如說我們今年114年度剩餘但是那個是要優先還債還債裡面是1415 扣掉之後他剩餘只剩下164億114年度來講但是我現在的部分我現在是以113年度這都還沒有審定我要運用他我必須要等到審計部審定之後這個這個剩餘我才能夠運用所以要等"},{"start":669.753,"end":688.421,"text":"我知道所以你的預估數字很重要你當時預估的數字說我們可能要取債我沒有要跟你吵架我需要知道那個數字當時你說我們要取債因為明年的數字怎麼樣還不知道現在已經十月了我們大概可以知道今年年底大概是一個什麼樣的狀況稅入的狀況大概還是稅收超徵"},{"start":694.843,"end":710.546,"text":"我聽財政部長他表示說今年要達到預算數是有點困難所以這個部分但是我們今年各項指標的數字是不錯局長為什麼會這樣提因為你們10月可能還會送進來一個軍購的特別預算要達到GDP的5%"},{"start":713.047,"end":740.321,"text":"一兆元所以那個每個我們我們的舉債的部分是我特別長期關注的部分那明年到底可以還多少這些數字都會牽動到未來我們立法院審定其他特別預算到底舉債要多少我們應該同意多少整個財政紀律是相對的重要所以我用我想我會希望知道這個數字最主要的原因在這裡如果可以的話我希望會後有機會跟我們再進一步去做更進一步的討論好不好謝謝主席"},{"start":743.249,"end":744.582,"text":"谢谢李委员谢谢主席"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":527,"blocks":[["李委員彥秀：（10時28分）謝謝召委，我可不可以請主計長？"],["主席：我們請陳主計長。"],["陳主計長淑姿：委員好。"],["李委員彥秀：主計長，你辛苦了！"],["陳主計長淑姿：是，謝謝你。"],["李委員彥秀：主計長，今天有幾位委員都非常關心幾個重要的數字，因為數字的差異性其實都會有影響，我必須再次強調，主計總處所預估每一個精準的數字都會變成我們政府施政或民間企業投資的重要指標，我相信您大概有聽懂我這些話的意思。我們先來看看，主計總處在10月8號公布9月份的物價指數，估計今年9月份CPI是1.25%，這創下過去從110年4月以來這4年半裡面最低的漲幅，我們的CPI也已經連續5個月低於2%的警戒值。這個數字當然維持得很好，但是主計總處也表示這會不會是暫時性的因素？譬如說我們中秋節今年是在10月、去年是在9月，跟同基期相比，其實看起來是比較低的，包括國內外旅遊的機票隨著暑假旺季已過然後就回跌，我想我們也會評估會不會是暫時性的因素、通膨被壓低會不會只是曇花一現，包括我們下修今年全年的CPI至1.88%，央行目前預估今年通膨大概會是1.75%。所以我想請問一下主計長，央行估計是1.75%，我們今年5月份預估是1.88%，那我們還會不會再向下調整？"],["陳主計長淑姿：我們預估前年是1.76%，明年大概是1.64%。"],["李委員彥秀：我指的是今年，因為央行估計的是1.75%，我們在5月份預估是1.88%，那你預估全年度會不會再下修？"],["陳主計長淑姿：到目前為止，1至9月是1.77%。"],["李委員彥秀：對。"],["陳主計長淑姿：我們全年預估是1.76%，然後明年是預估1.64%。"],["李委員彥秀：所以明年通膨會更低？"],["陳主計長淑姿：對，主要是因為整個國際的油價還有原物料下降的影響，而且我們的品項是368項，所以它的範圍很大，但是我們其實也有針對民生的部分分別發布，比如說肉類、水果類、蔬菜……"],["李委員彥秀：對，主計長，這個就是我要講的，我已經聽到你對今年全年往下調整，明年你也預估出CPI會更低，只有百分之一點六多而已。"],["陳主計長淑姿：是。"],["李委員彥秀：那這是好事，但是我接下來要跟主計長探討民生的物價。"],["陳主計長淑姿：是。"],["李委員彥秀：看起來我們的許多數字非常好，但是我們回過頭來看，今年包括豬肉、雞肉，像豬肉的漲幅就達到8.7%，雞蛋的漲幅是5.9%，速食麵、泡麵的漲幅是2.0%，麵包的漲幅是4.7%，還有我們看醫生後吃藥都會配一顆胃藥，胃藥的漲幅達到8.7%，也就是說，民生用品的通膨其實是高的，整年度上升2.47%。主計長，政府的很多數字很好，但是我們更擔心人民在消費力的感受上是沒有啊！物價都在上漲。所以我覺得要不斷地適時公布很多數據，看怎麼去做政策方面的調整，經濟部、農業部在物價方面，像剛剛我講的一些重要民生指標，包括豬肉、雞肉，我們怎麼樣去做更好的調控？政府用它可以用的工具做更好的調控，恐怕我們要隨時去做更多數字的微調，或者是關注這些數字，這是我要提醒主計長的地方。"],["陳主計長淑姿：是，謝謝委員。對重要的民生物資我們也都有公布，就是所謂17項民生重要需求的部分，還有包括……"],["李委員彥秀：主計長，我知道，因為我今天要問的議題很多，所以我只是要提醒你，在這些數字出來之後應該要轉給經濟部、農業部，因為民生物價很高，包括租屋族的租金高、外食族的費用高，像這些基本的豬肉、雞肉、蛋都價格很高，我們怎麼樣由相關部會去做一些政策上的調整，這個是要隨時去做，你的數字出來以後就是要轉給各部會做施政方向的調整……"],["陳主計長淑姿：這都有公布……"],["李委員彥秀：應該要趕快去做處理。"],["陳主計長淑姿：好。"],["李委員彥秀：第二個，我要請問一下主計長，我們實質經常性薪資在過去這幾年都是負成長，好不容易從2024年開始轉正，今年度的經常性薪資是4萬7,709元，好不容易轉正成長，成長了1.12%，現在是持續在成長。今年度整個國際局勢的變化非常快，所以我想請問主計長，我們今年全年度的實質經常性的薪資是不是還可以維持正成長？到目前為止，我看到是成長1.12%，我們今年實質性的薪資是4萬……"],["陳主計長淑姿：這是扣除物價，扣除物價的是增加1.12%……"],["李委員彥秀：我知道，那整年度……"],["陳主計長淑姿：整年度也是會成長，我們預計是這樣子。"],["李委員彥秀：大概是多少？會不會超過2%？"],["陳主計長淑姿：應該不會啦！應該差不多……"],["李委員彥秀：那會比1.12%還高嗎？"],["陳主計長淑姿：高一點點而已。"],["李委員彥秀：大概是多少？"],["陳主計長淑姿：應該也是接近這個水準，差不多，因為我們現在是做預測……"],["李委員彥秀：我知道，主計長，我知道是預測，但是國際局勢的變化很快速，你的每一個指標都關係到很多民間的投資、人民的感受……"],["陳主計長淑姿：因為明年基本薪資也有調整嘛。"],["李委員彥秀：所以你講差不多我不知道差異是多少，因為有時候差0.2、0.3、0.5都是很大的差距？"],["陳主計長淑姿：應該是很微小，差不多一點一多，一點多。"],["李委員彥秀：差不多，就是0.01%的差距？"],["陳主計長淑姿：是。"],["李委員彥秀：主計長，第三個問題要請教你，總統在這次國慶的報告上有提到，雖然面臨國際的局勢，我們經濟成長仍舊是四小龍之首，排在第一位，是四小龍的第一名，也超越了中國大陸。我們今年利用亞洲開發銀行的報告，經濟成長率上修到5.1%，這是好事，主計總處在8月的時候才上修經濟成長率是4.45%，所以現在數字會不會去做調整？你認為亞洲銀行的數據會不會過於樂觀？"],["陳主計長淑姿：亞銀的是5.1%，我們評估是4.45%……"],["李委員彥秀：當時你的估計……"],["陳主計長淑姿：央行是4.5%，目前是這樣，應該會有往上升的趨勢啦！但是是不是能夠達到5.1%，我們是有一點比較保守估計。"],["李委員彥秀：那你預估會是多少？"],["陳主計長淑姿：我們預估是4.45%，但是我覺得會超過4.5%。"],["李委員彥秀：超過4.5%？"],["陳主計長淑姿：是。"],["李委員彥秀：才多0.05%？那他的估計就太過樂觀了，可是總統覺得他的數字比較好，他報告是用他的數字而不是用你的數字！"],["陳主計長淑姿：一般是想說趨近於5%。"],["李委員彥秀：蛤？對不起。"],["陳主計長淑姿：趨近於5%啦。"],["李委員彥秀：主計長，5.1%跟4.45%或4.5%其實是差距很大，0.5%是差距很大的。"],["陳主計長淑姿：對，因為以目前的趨勢並沒有萎縮很多，所以以出口來講……"],["李委員彥秀：樂觀是好事，當然亞銀的數字是很樂觀，你會不會覺得他過於樂觀？"],["陳主計長淑姿：所以我們是比較保守，我們才4.5%左右。"],["李委員彥秀：所以總統是太樂觀？"],["陳主計長淑姿：不是，因為這是亞洲銀行提供的數據，他只是依據這個數據來說明。"],["李委員彥秀：你比較保守，你要不要稍微再樂觀一點？"],["陳主計長淑姿：會再成長、會再成長。"],["李委員彥秀：主計長，我要提的是，您的數字是國家的望遠鏡，像我常常聽到很多企業、各產業界都在講說，現在好像抱現金比較好，不敢太調整，因為你上半年度說……上半年我記得有一個數字說下半年保1就不錯，全年保3、下半年保1。"],["陳主計長淑姿：是。"],["李委員彥秀：所以很多產業界聽到數字就不敢投資而抱現金，這都是自然的心態，我也知道國際局勢變化非常快，但是我要提醒，您是國家很多重要政策的望遠鏡，您看好、看壞每一個數字都會影響到產業界。"],["陳主計長淑姿：是，所以我們一直在觀察、一直在評估。"],["李委員彥秀：我最後一個問題，我覺得這個政策，數字要隨時公布。"],["陳主計長淑姿：是。"],["李委員彥秀：我覺得參考國際數字、央行的數字，我們不能過於保守但也不能太樂觀，所以怎麼樣是一個好的拿捏？一個獨立機構應該能夠建立更多的公信力，我提醒主計長要去做一些調整。"],["陳主計長淑姿：好，謝謝委員。"],["李委員彥秀：如果連總統都要用亞銀的數字而不是用你的數字，我就會覺得很奇怪。"],["陳主計長淑姿：是、是。"],["李委員彥秀：這是我要提醒您的地方。最後一個，主計長，在今年7月我們通過一筆特別預算，就是強化社會經濟，總共是5,500億，當時您提到我們舉債的部分會達到1,006億，當時因為年終的時候，我們對明年歲計賸餘的狀況還不確定，但是看起來到今年8月底，明年不一定會比今年好但是也不會太差，所以我要請問你，明年會不會不需要借那麼多？明年6月份我們會還債，會不會不需要借到1,006億？會不會只需要借到一半或甚至更少？您預估的數字是怎麼樣？因為明年歲計賸餘可能跟今年不會差異太大，我希望得到您的答案。"],["陳主計長淑姿：不是，因為譬如說，114年度的賸餘要優先還債，還債裡面扣掉1,415之後，以114年度來講，賸餘只剩下164億。但是現在的部分，我是以113年度，這些都還沒有審定，我要運用它必須等到審計部審定之後，這些賸餘我才能夠運用，所以要等到明年……"],["李委員彥秀：我知道，所以您的預估數字很重要，你當時預估的數字說我們可能要舉債……"],["陳主計長淑姿：是，但是預估賸餘剩下164……"],["李委員彥秀：我沒有要跟您吵架。"],["陳主計長淑姿：是。"],["李委員彥秀：我需要知道那個數字，當時您說要舉債，因為明年的數字怎麼樣還不知道，但現在已經10月了，我們大概可以知道今年年底大概是一個什麼樣的狀況，歲入的狀況大概還是稅收超徵……"],["陳主計長淑姿：114稅收沒有辦法超徵，我聽財政部長表示，今年要達到預算數是有一點困難，所以這個部分……"],["李委員彥秀：但是我們今年各項指標的數字是不錯。主計長，為什麼我會這樣提？因為你們10月可能還會送進來一個軍購特別預算要達到GDP的5%，1兆元，所以舉債的部分是我長期特別關注的部分，明年到底可以還多少？這些數字都會牽動到未來立法院審定其他特別預算，到底舉債要多少？我們應該同意多少？整個財政紀律是相對的重要，所以我會希望知道數字最主要的原因在這裡，如果可以的話，我希望會後有機會跟主計總處的同仁再去做更進一步的討論，好不好？"],["陳主計長淑姿：是，我們再提供詳細數字給委員。"],["李委員彥秀：謝謝主計長。"],["陳主計長淑姿：謝謝委員。"],["主席（鍾委員佳濱代）：謝謝李委員、謝謝主計長。","接下來有請李召委坤城委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":182,"meet_id":"委員會-11-4-20-2","speakers":["李坤城","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","賴惠員","鍾佳濱","李彥秀","顏寬恒","黃珊珊","羅明才","葉元之","楊瓊瓔","黃國昌","張啓楷","謝衣鳯","林思銘","王世堅","陳玉珍"],"page_start":103,"meetingDate":["2025-10-15"],"gazette_id":"1148401","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1148401_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第4會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請行政院主計總處陳主計長淑姿、審計部陳審計長瑞敏率所屬單位主管列席業務報告，並備質\n詢","agenda_id":"1148401_00003"}}}