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00:00:52,652\n就是阔湖山南美方并联合各国以军舰通过台海之实际行动展现对自由航行的原则支持防止中国将台海内海化的企图充分展现美方维护印太安全战略趋于稳定的决心这里面我也请条法司司长您方便的话\n\n3\n00:00:58,271 --> 00:01:22,478\n因为这个里面有涉及到联合国海洋法公约1982年的unclass那么菲律宾输入海对菲律宾来讲它是群岛水域没有国家接受它是内海那么如果台海现阶段还不是内海实际上是公海根本不可能变内海\n\n4\n00:01:23,649 --> 00:01:34,880\n那美國其他的國家通過台海他是freedomofnavigation就是FON那如果像在南海\n\n5\n00:01:35,936 --> 00:01:54,096\n人工島礁中國說這個是我是島他畫了經濟畫了領海基線這個時候美國不接受他宣布這個是你的自然的島嶼所以你沒有領海於是他派軍艦穿過中共所畫的領海線\n\n6\n00:01:55,057 --> 00:02:13,005\n那叫FreedomofNavigationOperation那這是政策但是軍艦去執行任務的時候就叫做FoundOpsOperations所以這個建議外交部把這個做一個區分好好吧好謝謝那後面的幾個問題我要請這個經貿辦公室的執行秘書一起\n\n7\n00:02:22,699 --> 00:02:28,419\n部長您好您看這個圖前一次已經用過一次但是我們在持續在修正\n\n8\n00:02:29,298 --> 00:02:53,359\n因为我们做的分析是关税谈判代表他是全班的高阶的策略逻辑分析最主要是川普讲了关税问题不只是经济问题是美国的国安问题但一旦讲到国安问题他就涉及到地缘政治地缘经济地缘战略所以他不是存在经济谈判过程中间只focus在经济关税问题了是\n\n9\n00:02:53,979 --> 00:03:20,089\n他的目的呢他强调美国优先不能赚美国的钱您在这个报告里都提过可是川普总统他非常聪明他在展现个人卓越第二个不可预测第二个他主导所有政策的发展所以我们从美国的本质目的方法到手段那这个手段的过程中间刚才经贸谈判您也提过了我们已经参加过五轮十次线上会议\n\n10\n00:03:21,414 --> 00:03:47,817\n在这个过程中间你看过他的财长是扮演白脸他的商务部长是黑脸那USTR的这个代表他是法律专家他左右调节那这次这个五个轮回回来了以后现在跟中国要谈的就是稀土关税百分百结果美方其实内部他有一个分析就是在左下角这个第一个你在这个谈判过程中间你的底线\n\n11\n00:03:48,638 --> 00:04:16,358\n你能不能承担affordability第二个就是说美国的人民跟国际对你的信任度有多少第三个你有没有一个调节的空间第四个达成率有多少对应的是什么第一个我先把你国际情势各种国际组织先拆开来第二个拆除隐性第三个去风险第四个实在不行就脱钩在这个metrics里面他选出的结果就这一次美国财政部长来扮黑脸了\n\n12\n00:04:17,513 --> 00:04:31,141\n他说美中可脱钩可锻炼但是留了一个弹数双方领导可再谈于是川普总统就讲了我跟习近平总统是好朋友我们在APEC会面\n\n13\n00:04:32,472 --> 00:04:56,693\n大概要谈希图分泰尼大豆还有台湾的问题所以你看到它是一个loop里面重复的滚动修正而且我们不要把这个问题把它绑死也就是说我们有一个完整的对应方案那这个方案怎么来参考呢因为它永远是黑脸白脸左右换脸然后上面施压最后回路重新调整我对你示好请看下一张\n\n14\n00:04:59,540 --> 00:05:27,487\n这张图表就是显示中美经贸谈判这个我们做一个参考它的策略分析战略策略分析第一个优势部分经济基础科技实力谈判工具国际影响力美方跟中方各有优势最后它有结构性的差异那劣势部分就是内部的约制经济的弱度执行的成本战略的困境同样结构性的差异\n\n15\n00:05:29,100 --> 00:05:52,419\n最后我们就到美中谈判双方内部调整的空间政策的灵活度创新的路径合作的领域谈判的策略最后做结构性的差异我提这个东西主要是一个方法论提供您那边内部做参考就是说在国际谈判过程中间我们是报的对友好人\n\n16\n00:05:53,499 --> 00:06:16,682\n就是说非常诚恳坦率地谈但是我是建议里面有些tolerance您要留在你的谈判底线因为它不是单独的经济问题它前面已经讲了它把国安就是说地缘政治地缘经济地缘战略的问题全部纠结在一起因此这个对我们经贸谈判代表如果是纯粹从关税经贸\n\n17\n00:06:17,583 --> 00:06:36,196\n你看到他跟中共玩的两手策略对国际的情势他永远他保持他有调节的空间那也就是在这种情况下我们要有自己的一个tolerance底线口袋绝对不要一厢情愿对他丝毫通通掏出来了要有一个回路调整的空间\n\n18\n00:06:36,876 --> 00:06:53,951\n以上的这几个方法论我们下去后提供这个部里面同仁做参考另外也有机会我们互相探讨在国际谈判过程中间不要只是focus在经济问题因为他把国安的问题卷进来了以后他通常会拿国际情势的变动\n\n19\n00:06:55,034 --> 00:07:14,743\n来反映到他要做改变策略的一个论述基础所以错永远不在他是国际情势可变但是可变不可预测如果我们没有一个结构的分析方法论有的时候会吃亏提请部长做参考看看部长你有什么指导\n\n20\n00:07:15,368 --> 00:07:28,843\n我覺得委員確實我們也應徵您的方法論這個關稅談判絕對不是單稅一般貿易的問題是從國安角度那必須要有一個架構那這樣一個分析也證明從對等關稅還有232條款\n\n21\n00:07:32,967 --> 00:07:47,266\n還有所謂的人工智慧行動發展甚至到最近的稀土有關於供應鏈的重組那美國的政策目標除了現在當然是要透過關稅來減低他的財政的負擔還有可以\n\n22\n00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:59,883\n但是呢可能其他的政策目標就是剛剛委員提到的在其他的戰略層次其實我們也要去對應它那這個也就是說這不是零和這是好幾個層次的這個交疊那我們的政策目標在哪裡什麼樣創造美國這個是優先台灣也優先那就是說讓\n\n23\n00:08:12,489 --> 00:08:21,067\n台美可以有互利雙贏的空間這個就是我們我想站在國安戰略的角度就不同於只是一個純粹的關稅貿易的談判\n\n24\n00:08:25,254 --> 00:08:52,925\n這邊再提醒調法師也特別要花點功夫協助有關所謂的經濟海域領海內水有關聯合國海洋法公約Unclosed裡面的定義在國際法裡面我們怎麼樣掌握論述的道理而不是被帶動的由接受這些對方提出的條件以上提出參考謝謝部長我們大家共同努力我們會好好的運用謝謝\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n289\t28500\t主席有請外交部林部長林部長部長早安委員長剛才聽取了您的報告當然我們很肯定外交部在這個廣泛的領域不只是經貿甚至是國際安全和平的問題上所做的努力剛才在您的報告的第二頁我提出一點建議\n29778\t52652\t就是阔湖山南美方并联合各国以军舰通过台海之实际行动展现对自由航行的原则支持防止中国将台海内海化的企图充分展现美方维护印太安全战略趋于稳定的决心这里面我也请条法司司长您方便的话\n58271\t82478\t因为这个里面有涉及到联合国海洋法公约1982年的unclass那么菲律宾输入海对菲律宾来讲它是群岛水域没有国家接受它是内海那么如果台海现阶段还不是内海实际上是公海根本不可能变内海\n83649\t94880\t那美國其他的國家通過台海他是freedom of navigation就是FON那如果像在南海\n95936\t114096\t人工島礁中國說這個是我是島他畫了經濟畫了領海基線這個時候美國不接受他宣布這個是你的自然的島嶼所以你沒有領海於是他派軍艦穿過中共所畫的領海線\n115057\t133005\t那叫Freedom of Navigation Operation那這是政策但是軍艦去執行任務的時候就叫做Found Ops Operations所以這個建議外交部把這個做一個區分好 好吧好 謝謝那後面的幾個問題我要請這個經貿辦公室的執行秘書一起\n142699\t148419\t部長您好您看這個圖前一次已經用過一次但是我們在持續在修正\n149298\t173359\t因为我们做的分析是关税谈判代表他是全班的高阶的策略逻辑分析最主要是川普讲了关税问题不只是经济问题是美国的国安问题但一旦讲到国安问题他就涉及到地缘政治地缘经济地缘战略所以他不是存在经济谈判过程中间只focus在经济关税问题了是\n173979\t200089\t他的目的呢他强调美国优先不能赚美国的钱您在这个报告里都提过可是川普总统他非常聪明他在展现个人卓越第二个不可预测第二个他主导所有政策的发展所以我们从美国的本质目的方法到手段那这个手段的过程中间刚才经贸谈判您也提过了我们已经参加过五轮十次线上会议\n201414\t227817\t在这个过程中间你看过他的财长是扮演白脸他的商务部长是黑脸那USTR的这个代表他是法律专家他左右调节那这次这个五个轮回回来了以后现在跟中国要谈的就是稀土关税百分百结果美方其实内部他有一个分析就是在左下角这个第一个你在这个谈判过程中间你的底线\n228638\t256358\t你能不能承担affordability第二个就是说美国的人民跟国际对你的信任度有多少第三个你有没有一个调节的空间第四个达成率有多少对应的是什么第一个我先把你国际情势各种国际组织先拆开来第二个拆除隐性第三个去风险第四个实在不行就脱钩在这个metrics里面他选出的结果就这一次美国财政部长来扮黑脸了\n257513\t271141\t他说美中可脱钩可锻炼但是留了一个弹数双方领导可再谈于是川普总统就讲了我跟习近平总统是好朋友我们在APEC会面\n272472\t296693\t大概要谈希图分泰尼大豆还有台湾的问题所以你看到它是一个loop里面重复的滚动修正而且我们不要把这个问题把它绑死也就是说我们有一个完整的对应方案那这个方案怎么来参考呢因为它永远是黑脸白脸左右换脸然后上面施压最后回路重新调整我对你示好请看下一张\n299540\t327487\t这张图表就是显示中美经贸谈判这个我们做一个参考它的策略分析战略策略分析第一个优势部分经济基础科技实力谈判工具国际影响力美方跟中方各有优势最后它有结构性的差异那劣势部分就是内部的约制经济的弱度执行的成本战略的困境同样结构性的差异\n329100\t352419\t最后我们就到美中谈判双方内部调整的空间政策的灵活度创新的路径合作的领域谈判的策略最后做结构性的差异我提这个东西主要是一个方法论提供您那边内部做参考就是说在国际谈判过程中间我们是报的对友好人\n353499\t376682\t就是说非常诚恳坦率地谈但是我是建议里面有些tolerance您要留在你的谈判底线因为它不是单独的经济问题它前面已经讲了它把国安就是说地缘政治地缘经济地缘战略的问题全部纠结在一起因此这个对我们经贸谈判代表如果是纯粹从关税经贸\n377583\t396196\t你看到他跟中共玩的两手策略对国际的情势他永远他保持他有调节的空间那也就是在这种情况下我们要有自己的一个tolerance底线口袋绝对不要一厢情愿对他丝毫通通掏出来了要有一个回路调整的空间\n396876\t413951\t以上的这几个方法论我们下去后提供这个部里面同仁做参考另外也有机会我们互相探讨在国际谈判过程中间不要只是focus在经济问题因为他把国安的问题卷进来了以后他通常会拿国际情势的变动\n415034\t434743\t来反映到他要做改变策略的一个论述基础所以错永远不在他是国际情势可变但是可变不可预测如果我们没有一个结构的分析方法论有的时候会吃亏提请部长做参考看看部长你有什么指导\n435368\t448843\t我覺得委員確實我們也應徵您的方法論這個關稅談判絕對不是單稅一般貿易的問題是從國安角度那必須要有一個架構那這樣一個分析也證明從對等關稅還有232條款\n452967\t467266\t還有所謂的人工智慧行動發展甚至到最近的稀土有關於供應鏈的重組那美國的政策目標除了現在當然是要透過關稅來減低他的財政的負擔還有可以\n469400\t479883\t但是呢可能其他的政策目標就是剛剛委員提到的在其他的戰略層次其實我們也要去對應它那這個也就是說這不是零和這是好幾個層次的這個交疊那我們的政策目標在哪裡什麼樣創造美國這個是優先台灣也優先那就是說讓\n492489\t501067\t台美可以有互利雙贏的空間這個就是我們我想站在國安戰略的角度就不同於只是一個純粹的關稅貿易的談判\n505254\t532925\t這邊再提醒調法師也特別要花點功夫協助有關所謂的經濟海域 領海 內水有關聯合國海洋法公約Unclosed裡面的定義在國際法裡面我們怎麼樣掌握論述的道理而不是被帶動的由接受這些對方提出的條件以上提出參考謝謝部長 我們大家共同努力我們會好好的運用 謝謝\n","txt":"主席有請外交部林部長林部長部長早安委員長剛才聽取了您的報告當然我們很肯定外交部在這個廣泛的領域不只是經貿甚至是國際安全和平的問題上所做的努力剛才在您的報告的第二頁我提出一點建議\n就是阔湖山南美方并联合各国以军舰通过台海之实际行动展现对自由航行的原则支持防止中国将台海内海化的企图充分展现美方维护印太安全战略趋于稳定的决心这里面我也请条法司司长您方便的话\n因为这个里面有涉及到联合国海洋法公约1982年的unclass那么菲律宾输入海对菲律宾来讲它是群岛水域没有国家接受它是内海那么如果台海现阶段还不是内海实际上是公海根本不可能变内海\n那美國其他的國家通過台海他是freedom of navigation就是FON那如果像在南海\n人工島礁中國說這個是我是島他畫了經濟畫了領海基線這個時候美國不接受他宣布這個是你的自然的島嶼所以你沒有領海於是他派軍艦穿過中共所畫的領海線\n那叫Freedom of Navigation Operation那這是政策但是軍艦去執行任務的時候就叫做Found Ops Operations所以這個建議外交部把這個做一個區分好 好吧好 謝謝那後面的幾個問題我要請這個經貿辦公室的執行秘書一起\n部長您好您看這個圖前一次已經用過一次但是我們在持續在修正\n因为我们做的分析是关税谈判代表他是全班的高阶的策略逻辑分析最主要是川普讲了关税问题不只是经济问题是美国的国安问题但一旦讲到国安问题他就涉及到地缘政治地缘经济地缘战略所以他不是存在经济谈判过程中间只focus在经济关税问题了是\n他的目的呢他强调美国优先不能赚美国的钱您在这个报告里都提过可是川普总统他非常聪明他在展现个人卓越第二个不可预测第二个他主导所有政策的发展所以我们从美国的本质目的方法到手段那这个手段的过程中间刚才经贸谈判您也提过了我们已经参加过五轮十次线上会议\n在这个过程中间你看过他的财长是扮演白脸他的商务部长是黑脸那USTR的这个代表他是法律专家他左右调节那这次这个五个轮回回来了以后现在跟中国要谈的就是稀土关税百分百结果美方其实内部他有一个分析就是在左下角这个第一个你在这个谈判过程中间你的底线\n你能不能承担affordability第二个就是说美国的人民跟国际对你的信任度有多少第三个你有没有一个调节的空间第四个达成率有多少对应的是什么第一个我先把你国际情势各种国际组织先拆开来第二个拆除隐性第三个去风险第四个实在不行就脱钩在这个metrics里面他选出的结果就这一次美国财政部长来扮黑脸了\n他说美中可脱钩可锻炼但是留了一个弹数双方领导可再谈于是川普总统就讲了我跟习近平总统是好朋友我们在APEC会面\n大概要谈希图分泰尼大豆还有台湾的问题所以你看到它是一个loop里面重复的滚动修正而且我们不要把这个问题把它绑死也就是说我们有一个完整的对应方案那这个方案怎么来参考呢因为它永远是黑脸白脸左右换脸然后上面施压最后回路重新调整我对你示好请看下一张\n这张图表就是显示中美经贸谈判这个我们做一个参考它的策略分析战略策略分析第一个优势部分经济基础科技实力谈判工具国际影响力美方跟中方各有优势最后它有结构性的差异那劣势部分就是内部的约制经济的弱度执行的成本战略的困境同样结构性的差异\n最后我们就到美中谈判双方内部调整的空间政策的灵活度创新的路径合作的领域谈判的策略最后做结构性的差异我提这个东西主要是一个方法论提供您那边内部做参考就是说在国际谈判过程中间我们是报的对友好人\n就是说非常诚恳坦率地谈但是我是建议里面有些tolerance您要留在你的谈判底线因为它不是单独的经济问题它前面已经讲了它把国安就是说地缘政治地缘经济地缘战略的问题全部纠结在一起因此这个对我们经贸谈判代表如果是纯粹从关税经贸\n你看到他跟中共玩的两手策略对国际的情势他永远他保持他有调节的空间那也就是在这种情况下我们要有自己的一个tolerance底线口袋绝对不要一厢情愿对他丝毫通通掏出来了要有一个回路调整的空间\n以上的这几个方法论我们下去后提供这个部里面同仁做参考另外也有机会我们互相探讨在国际谈判过程中间不要只是focus在经济问题因为他把国安的问题卷进来了以后他通常会拿国际情势的变动\n来反映到他要做改变策略的一个论述基础所以错永远不在他是国际情势可变但是可变不可预测如果我们没有一个结构的分析方法论有的时候会吃亏提请部长做参考看看部长你有什么指导\n我覺得委員確實我們也應徵您的方法論這個關稅談判絕對不是單稅一般貿易的問題是從國安角度那必須要有一個架構那這樣一個分析也證明從對等關稅還有232條款\n還有所謂的人工智慧行動發展甚至到最近的稀土有關於供應鏈的重組那美國的政策目標除了現在當然是要透過關稅來減低他的財政的負擔還有可以\n但是呢可能其他的政策目標就是剛剛委員提到的在其他的戰略層次其實我們也要去對應它那這個也就是說這不是零和這是好幾個層次的這個交疊那我們的政策目標在哪裡什麼樣創造美國這個是優先台灣也優先那就是說讓\n台美可以有互利雙贏的空間這個就是我們我想站在國安戰略的角度就不同於只是一個純粹的關稅貿易的談判\n這邊再提醒調法師也特別要花點功夫協助有關所謂的經濟海域 領海 內水有關聯合國海洋法公約Unclosed裡面的定義在國際法裡面我們怎麼樣掌握論述的道理而不是被帶動的由接受這些對方提出的條件以上提出參考謝謝部長 我們大家共同努力我們會好好的運用 謝謝\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.289 --> 00:28.500\n主席有請外交部林部長林部長部長早安委員長剛才聽取了您的報告當然我們很肯定外交部在這個廣泛的領域不只是經貿甚至是國際安全和平的問題上所做的努力剛才在您的報告的第二頁我提出一點建議\n\n00:29.778 --> 00:52.652\n就是阔湖山南美方并联合各国以军舰通过台海之实际行动展现对自由航行的原则支持防止中国将台海内海化的企图充分展现美方维护印太安全战略趋于稳定的决心这里面我也请条法司司长您方便的话\n\n00:58.271 --> 01:22.478\n因为这个里面有涉及到联合国海洋法公约1982年的unclass那么菲律宾输入海对菲律宾来讲它是群岛水域没有国家接受它是内海那么如果台海现阶段还不是内海实际上是公海根本不可能变内海\n\n01:23.649 --> 01:34.880\n那美國其他的國家通過台海他是freedomofnavigation就是FON那如果像在南海\n\n01:35.936 --> 01:54.096\n人工島礁中國說這個是我是島他畫了經濟畫了領海基線這個時候美國不接受他宣布這個是你的自然的島嶼所以你沒有領海於是他派軍艦穿過中共所畫的領海線\n\n01:55.057 --> 02:13.005\n那叫FreedomofNavigationOperation那這是政策但是軍艦去執行任務的時候就叫做FoundOpsOperations所以這個建議外交部把這個做一個區分好好吧好謝謝那後面的幾個問題我要請這個經貿辦公室的執行秘書一起\n\n02:22.699 --> 02:28.419\n部長您好您看這個圖前一次已經用過一次但是我們在持續在修正\n\n02:29.298 --> 02:53.359\n因为我们做的分析是关税谈判代表他是全班的高阶的策略逻辑分析最主要是川普讲了关税问题不只是经济问题是美国的国安问题但一旦讲到国安问题他就涉及到地缘政治地缘经济地缘战略所以他不是存在经济谈判过程中间只focus在经济关税问题了是\n\n02:53.979 --> 03:20.089\n他的目的呢他强调美国优先不能赚美国的钱您在这个报告里都提过可是川普总统他非常聪明他在展现个人卓越第二个不可预测第二个他主导所有政策的发展所以我们从美国的本质目的方法到手段那这个手段的过程中间刚才经贸谈判您也提过了我们已经参加过五轮十次线上会议\n\n03:21.414 --> 03:47.817\n在这个过程中间你看过他的财长是扮演白脸他的商务部长是黑脸那USTR的这个代表他是法律专家他左右调节那这次这个五个轮回回来了以后现在跟中国要谈的就是稀土关税百分百结果美方其实内部他有一个分析就是在左下角这个第一个你在这个谈判过程中间你的底线\n\n03:48.638 --> 04:16.358\n你能不能承担affordability第二个就是说美国的人民跟国际对你的信任度有多少第三个你有没有一个调节的空间第四个达成率有多少对应的是什么第一个我先把你国际情势各种国际组织先拆开来第二个拆除隐性第三个去风险第四个实在不行就脱钩在这个metrics里面他选出的结果就这一次美国财政部长来扮黑脸了\n\n04:17.513 --> 04:31.141\n他说美中可脱钩可锻炼但是留了一个弹数双方领导可再谈于是川普总统就讲了我跟习近平总统是好朋友我们在APEC会面\n\n04:32.472 --> 04:56.693\n大概要谈希图分泰尼大豆还有台湾的问题所以你看到它是一个loop里面重复的滚动修正而且我们不要把这个问题把它绑死也就是说我们有一个完整的对应方案那这个方案怎么来参考呢因为它永远是黑脸白脸左右换脸然后上面施压最后回路重新调整我对你示好请看下一张\n\n04:59.540 --> 05:27.487\n这张图表就是显示中美经贸谈判这个我们做一个参考它的策略分析战略策略分析第一个优势部分经济基础科技实力谈判工具国际影响力美方跟中方各有优势最后它有结构性的差异那劣势部分就是内部的约制经济的弱度执行的成本战略的困境同样结构性的差异\n\n05:29.100 --> 05:52.419\n最后我们就到美中谈判双方内部调整的空间政策的灵活度创新的路径合作的领域谈判的策略最后做结构性的差异我提这个东西主要是一个方法论提供您那边内部做参考就是说在国际谈判过程中间我们是报的对友好人\n\n05:53.499 --> 06:16.682\n就是说非常诚恳坦率地谈但是我是建议里面有些tolerance您要留在你的谈判底线因为它不是单独的经济问题它前面已经讲了它把国安就是说地缘政治地缘经济地缘战略的问题全部纠结在一起因此这个对我们经贸谈判代表如果是纯粹从关税经贸\n\n06:17.583 --> 06:36.196\n你看到他跟中共玩的两手策略对国际的情势他永远他保持他有调节的空间那也就是在这种情况下我们要有自己的一个tolerance底线口袋绝对不要一厢情愿对他丝毫通通掏出来了要有一个回路调整的空间\n\n06:36.876 --> 06:53.951\n以上的这几个方法论我们下去后提供这个部里面同仁做参考另外也有机会我们互相探讨在国际谈判过程中间不要只是focus在经济问题因为他把国安的问题卷进来了以后他通常会拿国际情势的变动\n\n06:55.034 --> 07:14.743\n来反映到他要做改变策略的一个论述基础所以错永远不在他是国际情势可变但是可变不可预测如果我们没有一个结构的分析方法论有的时候会吃亏提请部长做参考看看部长你有什么指导\n\n07:15.368 --> 07:28.843\n我覺得委員確實我們也應徵您的方法論這個關稅談判絕對不是單稅一般貿易的問題是從國安角度那必須要有一個架構那這樣一個分析也證明從對等關稅還有232條款\n\n07:32.967 --> 07:47.266\n還有所謂的人工智慧行動發展甚至到最近的稀土有關於供應鏈的重組那美國的政策目標除了現在當然是要透過關稅來減低他的財政的負擔還有可以\n\n07:49.400 --> 07:59.883\n但是呢可能其他的政策目標就是剛剛委員提到的在其他的戰略層次其實我們也要去對應它那這個也就是說這不是零和這是好幾個層次的這個交疊那我們的政策目標在哪裡什麼樣創造美國這個是優先台灣也優先那就是說讓\n\n08:12.489 --> 08:21.067\n台美可以有互利雙贏的空間這個就是我們我想站在國安戰略的角度就不同於只是一個純粹的關稅貿易的談判\n\n08:25.254 --> 08:52.925\n這邊再提醒調法師也特別要花點功夫協助有關所謂的經濟海域領海內水有關聯合國海洋法公約Unclosed裡面的定義在國際法裡面我們怎麼樣掌握論述的道理而不是被帶動的由接受這些對方提出的條件以上提出參考謝謝部長我們大家共同努力我們會好好的運用謝謝\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.289,"end":28.5,"text":"主席有請外交部林部長林部長部長早安委員長剛才聽取了您的報告當然我們很肯定外交部在這個廣泛的領域不只是經貿甚至是國際安全和平的問題上所做的努力剛才在您的報告的第二頁我提出一點建議"},{"start":29.778,"end":52.652,"text":"就是阔湖山南美方并联合各国以军舰通过台海之实际行动展现对自由航行的原则支持防止中国将台海内海化的企图充分展现美方维护印太安全战略趋于稳定的决心这里面我也请条法司司长您方便的话"},{"start":58.271,"end":82.478,"text":"因为这个里面有涉及到联合国海洋法公约1982年的unclass那么菲律宾输入海对菲律宾来讲它是群岛水域没有国家接受它是内海那么如果台海现阶段还不是内海实际上是公海根本不可能变内海"},{"start":83.649,"end":94.88,"text":"那美國其他的國家通過台海他是freedom of navigation就是FON那如果像在南海"},{"start":95.936,"end":114.096,"text":"人工島礁中國說這個是我是島他畫了經濟畫了領海基線這個時候美國不接受他宣布這個是你的自然的島嶼所以你沒有領海於是他派軍艦穿過中共所畫的領海線"},{"start":115.057,"end":133.005,"text":"那叫Freedom of Navigation Operation那這是政策但是軍艦去執行任務的時候就叫做Found Ops Operations所以這個建議外交部把這個做一個區分好 好吧好 謝謝那後面的幾個問題我要請這個經貿辦公室的執行秘書一起"},{"start":142.699,"end":148.419,"text":"部長您好您看這個圖前一次已經用過一次但是我們在持續在修正"},{"start":149.298,"end":173.359,"text":"因为我们做的分析是关税谈判代表他是全班的高阶的策略逻辑分析最主要是川普讲了关税问题不只是经济问题是美国的国安问题但一旦讲到国安问题他就涉及到地缘政治地缘经济地缘战略所以他不是存在经济谈判过程中间只focus在经济关税问题了是"},{"start":173.979,"end":200.089,"text":"他的目的呢他强调美国优先不能赚美国的钱您在这个报告里都提过可是川普总统他非常聪明他在展现个人卓越第二个不可预测第二个他主导所有政策的发展所以我们从美国的本质目的方法到手段那这个手段的过程中间刚才经贸谈判您也提过了我们已经参加过五轮十次线上会议"},{"start":201.414,"end":227.817,"text":"在这个过程中间你看过他的财长是扮演白脸他的商务部长是黑脸那USTR的这个代表他是法律专家他左右调节那这次这个五个轮回回来了以后现在跟中国要谈的就是稀土关税百分百结果美方其实内部他有一个分析就是在左下角这个第一个你在这个谈判过程中间你的底线"},{"start":228.638,"end":256.358,"text":"你能不能承担affordability第二个就是说美国的人民跟国际对你的信任度有多少第三个你有没有一个调节的空间第四个达成率有多少对应的是什么第一个我先把你国际情势各种国际组织先拆开来第二个拆除隐性第三个去风险第四个实在不行就脱钩在这个metrics里面他选出的结果就这一次美国财政部长来扮黑脸了"},{"start":257.513,"end":271.141,"text":"他说美中可脱钩可锻炼但是留了一个弹数双方领导可再谈于是川普总统就讲了我跟习近平总统是好朋友我们在APEC会面"},{"start":272.472,"end":296.693,"text":"大概要谈希图分泰尼大豆还有台湾的问题所以你看到它是一个loop里面重复的滚动修正而且我们不要把这个问题把它绑死也就是说我们有一个完整的对应方案那这个方案怎么来参考呢因为它永远是黑脸白脸左右换脸然后上面施压最后回路重新调整我对你示好请看下一张"},{"start":299.54,"end":327.487,"text":"这张图表就是显示中美经贸谈判这个我们做一个参考它的策略分析战略策略分析第一个优势部分经济基础科技实力谈判工具国际影响力美方跟中方各有优势最后它有结构性的差异那劣势部分就是内部的约制经济的弱度执行的成本战略的困境同样结构性的差异"},{"start":329.1,"end":352.419,"text":"最后我们就到美中谈判双方内部调整的空间政策的灵活度创新的路径合作的领域谈判的策略最后做结构性的差异我提这个东西主要是一个方法论提供您那边内部做参考就是说在国际谈判过程中间我们是报的对友好人"},{"start":353.499,"end":376.682,"text":"就是说非常诚恳坦率地谈但是我是建议里面有些tolerance您要留在你的谈判底线因为它不是单独的经济问题它前面已经讲了它把国安就是说地缘政治地缘经济地缘战略的问题全部纠结在一起因此这个对我们经贸谈判代表如果是纯粹从关税经贸"},{"start":377.583,"end":396.196,"text":"你看到他跟中共玩的两手策略对国际的情势他永远他保持他有调节的空间那也就是在这种情况下我们要有自己的一个tolerance底线口袋绝对不要一厢情愿对他丝毫通通掏出来了要有一个回路调整的空间"},{"start":396.876,"end":413.951,"text":"以上的这几个方法论我们下去后提供这个部里面同仁做参考另外也有机会我们互相探讨在国际谈判过程中间不要只是focus在经济问题因为他把国安的问题卷进来了以后他通常会拿国际情势的变动"},{"start":415.034,"end":434.743,"text":"来反映到他要做改变策略的一个论述基础所以错永远不在他是国际情势可变但是可变不可预测如果我们没有一个结构的分析方法论有的时候会吃亏提请部长做参考看看部长你有什么指导"},{"start":435.368,"end":448.843,"text":"我覺得委員確實我們也應徵您的方法論這個關稅談判絕對不是單稅一般貿易的問題是從國安角度那必須要有一個架構那這樣一個分析也證明從對等關稅還有232條款"},{"start":452.967,"end":467.266,"text":"還有所謂的人工智慧行動發展甚至到最近的稀土有關於供應鏈的重組那美國的政策目標除了現在當然是要透過關稅來減低他的財政的負擔還有可以"},{"start":469.4,"end":479.883,"text":"但是呢可能其他的政策目標就是剛剛委員提到的在其他的戰略層次其實我們也要去對應它那這個也就是說這不是零和這是好幾個層次的這個交疊那我們的政策目標在哪裡什麼樣創造美國這個是優先台灣也優先那就是說讓"},{"start":492.489,"end":501.067,"text":"台美可以有互利雙贏的空間這個就是我們我想站在國安戰略的角度就不同於只是一個純粹的關稅貿易的談判"},{"start":505.254,"end":532.925,"text":"這邊再提醒調法師也特別要花點功夫協助有關所謂的經濟海域 領海 內水有關聯合國海洋法公約Unclosed裡面的定義在國際法裡面我們怎麼樣掌握論述的道理而不是被帶動的由接受這些對方提出的條件以上提出參考謝謝部長 我們大家共同努力我們會好好的運用 謝謝"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":74,"blocks":[["陳委員永康：（9時19分）主席，有請外交部林部長。"],["主席：請部長。"],["陳委員永康：部長早安。"],["林部長佳龍：委員早。"],["陳委員永康：剛才聽取了您的報告，當然我們很肯定外交部在廣泛的領域，不只是經貿，甚至是國際安全、和平的問題所做的努力。剛才在您報告的第2頁「(三)美方並持續聯合各國以軍艦通過台海之實際行動展現對自由航行原則的支持，防止中國將台海『內海化』之企圖，充分體現美方維護印太安全與區域穩定的決心。」我提出一點建議，方便的話我要請教條法司司長。因為這個裡面涉及到聯合國海洋法公約1982年的UNCLOS，菲律賓蘇祿海對菲律賓來講是群島水域，但沒有國家接受它是內海，如果台海現階段還不是內海……實際上是公海，根本不可能變內海。美國或其他的國家通過台海，它是Freedom of Navigation（FON），如果像在南海人工島礁，中國說這個是島，劃定了領海基線，這個時候美國不接受它宣布這個是它的自然島嶼，所以沒有領海，於是它派軍艦穿過中共所劃定的領海線，那叫Freedom of Navigation Operations，這是政策，但是軍艦去執行任務的時候就叫做FONOPs，所以建議外交部把這個做一個區分，好不好？"],["林部長佳龍：好。"],["陳委員永康：謝謝。後面幾個問題，我也要請經貿辦公室的執行秘書一起。部長，您看這個圖，前一次已經用過一次，但是我們持續再修正，因為我們做的分析是關稅談判全盤的高階策略邏輯分析，最主要是川普講的，關稅問題不只是經濟問題，是美國的國安問題。但一旦講到國安問題，就涉及到地緣政治、地緣經濟、地緣戰略，所以它存在經濟談判過程中間，不只是focus在經濟關稅問題。他的目的是強調美國優先，不能賺美國的錢，您在報告裡都提過，可是川普總統非常聰明，他在展現個人卓越，並且不可預測；再來，他主導所有政策的發展。","所以我們從美國的本質、目的、方法到手段，剛才經貿談判你也提過了，我們已經參加過5輪10次線上會議，在這個過程中，你看他的財長是扮演白臉；他的商務部長是黑臉；而USTR的代表是法律專家，左右調節。這次5個輪迴回來了以後，現在跟中國要談的就是稀土關稅100%，結果美方其實內部有一個分析，就是在左下角這個。第一個，你在這個談判過程中間，你的底線能不能承擔（affordability）；第二個，美國的人民跟國際對你的信任度有多少；第三個，你有沒有一個調節的空間；第四個，達成率有多少？對應的是什麼？第一個，我先把你國際情勢、各種國際組織先拆開來；第二個，拆除引信；第三個，去風險；第四個，實在不行就脫鉤。在這個matrix裡面選出的結果、就這一次，美國財政部長來扮黑臉，他說美中可脫鉤、可斷鏈，但是留了一個但書：雙方領導可再談。於是川普總統就講了：我跟習近平總統是好朋友，我們在APEC會面，大概要談稀土、芬太尼、大豆，還有台灣的問題。所以你看到他是一個loop裡面重複地滾動修正，而且不要把這個問題綁死，也就是說，我們要有一個完整的對應方案，那這個方案怎麼來參考呢？因為他永遠是黑臉、白臉、左右換臉，然後上面施壓，最後迴路重新調整，我對你示好。","請看這一張圖表，我們做一個參考，顯示美中經貿談判戰略決策分析，在優勢部分：經濟基礎、科技實力、談判工具、國際影響力，美方跟中方各有優勢，最後它有結構性的差異。劣勢部分：就是內部的約制、經濟弱度、執行成本、戰略的困境，同樣結構性的差異。接著是美中談判雙方內部調整空間：政策的靈活度、創新的路徑、合作的領域、談判策略，最後做結構性的差異。我提這個東西主要是一個方法論，提供您內部做參考，就是在國際談判過程中間，我們是抱著對人友好、非常誠懇坦率地談，但是我是建議裡面有些tolerance要留在你的談判底線，因為它不是單獨的經濟問題，前面已經講了，他把國安、地緣政治、地緣經濟、地緣戰略的問題全部糾結在一起。","因此對我們經貿談判代表，如果是純粹從關稅經貿，你看到他跟中共玩的兩手策略，對國際的情勢，他永遠保持有調節的空間，也就是在這種情況下，我們要有自己的一個tolerance底線、口袋，絕對不要一廂情願對他示好、通通掏出來，要有一個迴路、調整的空間。以上的這幾個方法論，下去後我們提供部裡面同仁做參考。另外，也有機會我們互相探討在國際談判過程中間，不要只是focus在經濟問題，因為他把國安的問題捲進來了以後，通常會拿國際情勢的變動，來反映到他要做改變策略的論述基礎，所以錯永遠不在他，是國際情勢可變。但是可變、不可預測，如果我們沒有一個結構的分析方法論，有時候會吃虧，提醒部長做參考，看看部長你有什麼指導？"],["林部長佳龍：我覺得確實我們也印證了委員的方法論，關稅談判絕對不是單純一般貿易的問題，是從國安角度，必須要有一個架構。這樣的分析也證明從對等關稅、232條款，還有所謂的人工智慧行動方案，甚至到最近的稀土、有關於供應鏈的重組。美國的政策目標現在當然是要透過關稅來減低他的財政負擔還有……但是其他的政策目標，就是剛剛委員提到的，在其他的戰略層次，其實我們也要去對應，也就是說，這不是零和，這是好幾個層次的交疊，那我們的政策目標在哪裡？怎麼樣創造美國優先、台灣也優先，讓台美可以有互利雙贏的空間，我想我們站在國安戰略的角度，就不同於只是一個純粹的關稅貿易的談判。"],["陳委員永康：這邊再提醒條法司也特別要花點功夫協助有關所謂的經濟海域、領海、內水，以及有關聯合國海洋法公約UNCLOS裡面的定義，在國際法裡面我們怎麼樣掌握論述的道理，而不是被動地接受這些對方提出的條件。以上提出參考，謝謝部長，大家共同努力。"],["林部長佳龍：謝謝委員，我們會好好來運用，謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝。","接下來陳俊宇委員上台質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":332,"meet_id":"委員會-11-4-35-7","speakers":["馬文君","陳永康","陳俊宇","羅美玲","黃仁","林楚茵","葉元之","陳冠廷","徐巧芯","賴惠員","林德福","黃國昌","林憶君","王定宇","沈伯洋","楊瓊瓔","林倩綺"],"page_start":289,"meetingDate":["2025-10-22"],"gazette_id":"1148601","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1148601_00007"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第4會期外交及國防委員會第7次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請外交部部長林佳龍報告「近期台美關係及關稅談判進展」，併請行政院經貿談判辦公室、經\n濟部、農業部列席，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1148601_00006"}}}