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剛剛委員在投影片上面大概也把這次四中全會我們觀察的重點議題也都大概羅列出來了謝謝大概可以看到的是這九名上將遭到雙開顯示說可能共軍內部這種貪腐跟忠誠的問題非常嚴重我們也注意到像委員提到的中共的軍媒\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"對\"}, {\"word\": \"剛\"}, {\"word\": \"剛\"}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 92.224, \"end\": 92.464, \"score\": 0.834}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"在\", \"start\": 92.464, \"end\": 92.624, \"score\": 0.926}, {\"word\": \"投\", \"start\": 92.624, \"end\": 92.804, \"score\": 0.929}, {\"word\": \"影\", \"start\": 92.804, \"end\": 92.904, \"score\": 0.86}, {\"word\": \"片\", \"start\": 92.904, \"end\": 93.124, \"score\": 0.907}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 93.124, \"end\": 93.284, \"score\": 0.955}, {\"word\": \"面\", \"start\": 93.284, \"end\": 93.444, \"score\": 0.906}, {\"word\": \"大\", \"start\": 93.444, \"end\": 93.624, \"score\": 0.988}, {\"word\": \"概\", \"start\": 93.624, \"end\": 94.025, \"score\": 0.934}, {\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 94.025, \"end\": 94.165, \"score\": 0.884}, {\"word\": \"把\", \"start\": 94.165, \"end\": 94.505, \"score\": 0.937}, 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{\"word\": \"時\"}, {\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 130.007, \"end\": 130.167, \"score\": 0.873}, {\"word\": \"跟\", \"start\": 130.167, \"end\": 130.308, \"score\": 0.933}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 130.308, \"end\": 131.929, \"score\": 0.935}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"預\"}, {\"word\": \"測\"}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"可\", \"start\": 131.929, \"end\": 132.049, \"score\": 0.855}, {\"word\": \"能\", \"start\": 132.049, \"end\": 132.329, \"score\": 0.922}, {\"word\": \"會\"}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 132.329, \"end\": 132.549, \"score\": 0.995}, {\"word\": \"比\", \"start\": 132.549, \"end\": 132.85, \"score\": 0.93}, {\"word\": \"較\"}, {\"word\": \"大\", \"start\": 132.85, \"end\": 133.17, \"score\": 0.929}, {\"word\": \"規\"}, {\"word\": \"模\", \"start\": 133.17, \"end\": 133.41, \"score\": 0.952}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 133.41, \"end\": 133.91, \"score\": 0.998}, {\"word\": \"整\", \"start\": 133.91, \"end\": 134.391, \"score\": 0.952}, {\"word\": \"肅\"}, {\"word\": \"跟\", \"start\": 134.391, \"end\": 134.891, \"score\": 0.938}, {\"word\": \"調\"}, {\"word\": \"查\", \"start\": 134.891, \"end\": 135.131, \"score\": 0.937}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 135.131, \"end\": 135.251, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 135.251, \"end\": 135.752, \"score\": 0.921}, {\"word\": \"個\"}, {\"word\": \"動\"}, {\"word\": \"作\", \"start\": 135.752, \"end\": 135.772, \"score\": 0.897}]}, {\"start\": 136.352, \"end\": 155.737, \"text\": \"另外是在這一次的市中全會的過程當中比較值得注意的是原本是應該有205位的中央委員但是出席的只有168位有37位是沒有出席的37位沒有出席的包括之前被查辦的以及剛剛跟委員說明的長期沒有出現的\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"另\", \"start\": 136.352, \"end\": 136.492, \"score\": 0.806}, {\"word\": \"外\", \"start\": 136.492, \"end\": 136.632, \"score\": 0.854}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 136.632, \"end\": 136.792, \"score\": 0.994}, {\"word\": \"在\", \"start\": 136.792, \"end\": 137.232, \"score\": 0.951}, {\"word\": \"這\"}, {\"word\": \"一\", \"start\": 137.232, \"end\": 137.372, \"score\": 0.995}, {\"word\": \"次\", 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\"end\": 141.053, \"score\": 0.891}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 141.053, \"end\": 141.233, \"score\": 0.99}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 141.233, \"end\": 141.953, \"score\": 0.938}, {\"word\": \"原\", \"start\": 141.953, \"end\": 142.133, \"score\": 0.978}, {\"word\": \"本\", \"start\": 142.133, \"end\": 142.314, \"score\": 0.996}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 142.314, \"end\": 142.654, \"score\": 0.862}, {\"word\": \"應\"}, {\"word\": \"該\"}, {\"word\": \"有\", \"start\": 142.654, \"end\": 143.394, \"score\": 0.889}, {\"word\": \"2\"}, {\"word\": \"0\"}, {\"word\": \"5\"}, {\"word\": \"位\", \"start\": 143.394, \"end\": 143.614, \"score\": 0.962}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 143.614, \"end\": 143.874, \"score\": 0.955}, {\"word\": \"中\", \"start\": 143.874, \"end\": 144.054, \"score\": 0.93}, {\"word\": \"央\", \"start\": 144.054, \"end\": 144.214, \"score\": 0.996}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 144.214, \"end\": 145.154, \"score\": 0.972}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"但\", 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{\"word\": \"前\", \"start\": 152.196, \"end\": 152.396, \"score\": 0.843}, {\"word\": \"被\", \"start\": 152.396, \"end\": 152.596, \"score\": 0.956}, {\"word\": \"查\", \"start\": 152.596, \"end\": 152.956, \"score\": 0.921}, {\"word\": \"辦\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 152.956, \"end\": 153.076, \"score\": 0.995}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 153.076, \"end\": 153.156, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"及\", \"start\": 153.156, \"end\": 153.916, \"score\": 0.959}, {\"word\": \"剛\"}, {\"word\": \"剛\"}, {\"word\": \"跟\", \"start\": 153.916, \"end\": 154.036, \"score\": 0.84}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 154.036, \"end\": 154.436, \"score\": 0.886}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"說\"}, {\"word\": \"明\", \"start\": 154.436, \"end\": 154.596, \"score\": 0.918}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 154.596, \"end\": 154.977, \"score\": 0.945}, {\"word\": \"長\"}, {\"word\": \"期\", \"start\": 154.977, \"end\": 155.077, \"score\": 0.799}, {\"word\": \"沒\", \"start\": 155.077, \"end\": 155.197, 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\"而且剛跟委員提到的中央委員的候補、地補的11名的名單也都跳過了軍方的代表所以這整體看下來可能顯示習近平對於軍方的降臨還是不太信任所以由張申明來直接接任軍委副主席因為張申明已經67歲了\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"而\", \"start\": 177.177, \"end\": 177.257, \"score\": 0.677}, {\"word\": \"且\", \"start\": 177.257, \"end\": 177.598, \"score\": 0.787}, {\"word\": \"剛\"}, {\"word\": \"跟\", \"start\": 177.598, \"end\": 177.718, \"score\": 0.641}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 177.718, \"end\": 177.918, \"score\": 0.712}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"提\", \"start\": 177.918, \"end\": 178.078, \"score\": 0.845}, {\"word\": \"到\", \"start\": 178.078, \"end\": 178.238, \"score\": 0.93}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 178.238, \"end\": 178.719, \"score\": 0.982}, {\"word\": \"中\", \"start\": 178.719, \"end\": 178.839, \"score\": 0.882}, {\"word\": \"央\", \"start\": 178.839, \"end\": 178.959, \"score\": 0.829}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 178.959, \"end\": 179.319, \"score\": 0.94}, {\"word\": \"員\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 179.319, \"end\": 179.78, \"score\": 0.982}, {\"word\": \"候\", \"start\": 179.78, \"end\": 180.26, \"score\": 0.903}, {\"word\": \"補\"}, {\"word\": \"、\"}, {\"word\": \"地\", \"start\": 180.26, \"end\": 180.641, \"score\": 0.863}, {\"word\": \"補\"}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 180.641, \"end\": 181.121, \"score\": 0.875}, {\"word\": \"1\"}, {\"word\": \"1\"}, {\"word\": \"名\", \"start\": 181.121, \"end\": 181.321, \"score\": 0.954}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 181.321, \"end\": 181.421, \"score\": 0.853}, {\"word\": \"名\", \"start\": 181.421, \"end\": 181.842, \"score\": 0.833}, {\"word\": \"單\"}, {\"word\": \"也\", \"start\": 181.842, \"end\": 181.982, \"score\": 0.815}, {\"word\": \"都\", \"start\": 181.982, \"end\": 182.302, \"score\": 0.986}, {\"word\": \"跳\", \"start\": 182.302, \"end\": 182.743, \"score\": 0.926}, {\"word\": \"過\"}, {\"word\": \"了\", \"start\": 182.743, \"end\": 183.623, \"score\": 0.953}, {\"word\": \"軍\"}, {\"word\": \"方\", \"start\": 183.623, \"end\": 183.784, \"score\": 0.87}, {\"word\": \"的\", \"start\": 183.784, 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0.873}, {\"word\": \"張\"}, {\"word\": \"申\", \"start\": 193.353, \"end\": 193.513, \"score\": 0.863}, {\"word\": \"明\", \"start\": 193.513, \"end\": 193.913, \"score\": 0.894}, {\"word\": \"來\"}, {\"word\": \"直\", \"start\": 193.913, \"end\": 194.114, \"score\": 0.842}, {\"word\": \"接\", \"start\": 194.114, \"end\": 195.115, \"score\": 0.97}, {\"word\": \"接\", \"start\": 195.115, \"end\": 195.315, \"score\": 0.908}, {\"word\": \"任\", \"start\": 195.315, \"end\": 195.815, \"score\": 0.917}, {\"word\": \"軍\"}, {\"word\": \"委\", \"start\": 195.815, \"end\": 195.996, \"score\": 0.933}, {\"word\": \"副\", \"start\": 195.996, \"end\": 196.136, \"score\": 0.854}, {\"word\": \"主\", \"start\": 196.136, \"end\": 196.316, \"score\": 0.99}, {\"word\": \"席\", \"start\": 196.316, \"end\": 196.576, \"score\": 0.901}, {\"word\": \"因\", \"start\": 196.576, \"end\": 196.876, \"score\": 0.765}, {\"word\": \"為\"}, {\"word\": \"張\"}, {\"word\": \"申\", \"start\": 196.876, \"end\": 196.996, \"score\": 0.818}, {\"word\": \"明\", \"start\": 196.996, \"end\": 197.117, \"score\": 0.897}, {\"word\": \"已\", \"start\": 197.117, \"end\": 197.217, \"score\": 0.822}, {\"word\": \"經\"}, {\"word\": \"6\"}, {\"word\": \"7\"}, {\"word\": \"歲\"}, {\"word\": \"了\", \"start\": 197.217, \"end\": 197.237, \"score\": 0.0}]}, {\"start\": 198.698, \"end\": 220.549, \"text\": \"所以我們判斷上比較像是一個過渡性的人物不過他反映的是中共領導人對於軍方比較年輕一代將領的不信任所以中軍委的這種組成結構的縮小化那會不會造成領導人在軍事決策的偏聽或是造成一些軍事決策風險那這部分我們會再來注意好\", \"words\": [{\"word\": \"所\", \"start\": 198.698, \"end\": 198.778, \"score\": 0.75}, {\"word\": \"以\", \"start\": 198.778, \"end\": 198.818, \"score\": 0.579}, {\"word\": \"我\", \"start\": 198.818, \"end\": 198.998, \"score\": 0.943}, {\"word\": \"們\"}, {\"word\": \"判\", \"start\": 198.998, \"end\": 199.338, \"score\": 0.924}, {\"word\": \"斷\"}, {\"word\": \"上\", \"start\": 199.338, \"end\": 199.538, \"score\": 0.991}, {\"word\": \"比\", \"start\": 199.538, \"end\": 200.039, \"score\": 0.952}, {\"word\": \"較\"}, {\"word\": \"像\", 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\"score\": 0.963}, {\"word\": \"是\", \"start\": 621.84, \"end\": 622.261, \"score\": 0.999}, {\"word\": \"好\", \"start\": 622.261, \"end\": 622.661, \"score\": 0.912}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"謝\"}, {\"word\": \"局\", \"start\": 622.661, \"end\": 622.681, \"score\": 0.0}, {\"word\": \"長\"}], \"language\": \"zh\"}","srt":"1\n00:00:00,762 --> 00:00:25,913\n好謝謝主席我們有請蔡局長有請蔡局長好局長早各位很早局長就中共所召開的這個四中全會觀察以及後續的相關動態我想在上次的質詢當中這個主題我想再延續來請教我們局長上次跟局長您詢問到這個四中全會\n\n2\n00:00:27,153 --> 00:00:51,591\n他相關的這個預測在這個上週四會議落幕之後我們從公開的這個資訊當中也看到確實除了這個十五五的這個規劃之外在會前就有包括這個何衛東苗華等九名上將因違反他們黨紀的相關問題涉嫌嚴重職務犯罪數額特大\n\n3\n00:00:53,357 --> 00:01:19,524\n特別巨大被開除黨籍及軍籍造成軍事降臨一波人事動盪甚至解放軍報還發表社論指責他們信仰坍塌忠誠失節嚴重破壞黨指揮槍原則和軍委主席的負責制等等由此聯想除了反腐敗的\n\n4\n00:01:21,246 --> 00:01:29,731\n官方事由之外這九名上將是否可能有其他的罪名那我們國安局有沒有相關的掌握訊息\n\n5\n00:01:32,224 --> 00:01:52,314\n對剛剛委員在投影片上面大概也把這次四中全會我們觀察的重點議題也都大概羅列出來了謝謝大概可以看到的是這九名上將遭到雙開顯示說可能共軍內部這種貪腐跟忠誠的問題非常嚴重我們也注意到像委員提到的中共的軍媒\n\n6\n00:01:53,294 --> 00:02:15,772\n軍方的媒體在評論這些案件的時候用字遣詞非常的強烈是以前比較沒有看到的一個狀況那我上次也跟委員報告事實上不只這九名我們掌握的有16名的上將大概從去年12月到現在都沒有公開露面所以當時也跟委員預測說可能會有比較大規模的整肅跟調查的一個動作\n\n7\n00:02:16,352 --> 00:02:35,737\n另外是在這一次的市中全會的過程當中比較值得注意的是原本是應該有205位的中央委員但是出席的只有168位有37位是沒有出席的37位沒有出席的包括之前被查辦的以及剛剛跟委員說明的長期沒有出現的\n\n8\n00:02:36,877 --> 00:02:56,336\n比例非常的高等於是佔了205名裡面的18%那這代表說那個調查的規模非常的大那另外延續性的問題也跟在畫面上委員所提到的就中央軍委的部分那中央軍委看起來是維持4名的中央軍委那並沒有在增補人員\n\n9\n00:02:57,177 --> 00:03:17,237\n而且剛跟委員提到的中央委員的候補、地補的11名的名單也都跳過了軍方的代表所以這整體看下來可能顯示習近平對於軍方的降臨還是不太信任所以由張申明來直接接任軍委副主席因為張申明已經67歲了\n\n10\n00:03:18,698 --> 00:03:40,549\n所以我們判斷上比較像是一個過渡性的人物不過他反映的是中共領導人對於軍方比較年輕一代將領的不信任所以中軍委的這種組成結構的縮小化那會不會造成領導人在軍事決策的偏聽或是造成一些軍事決策風險那這部分我們會再來注意好\n\n11\n00:03:42,510 --> 00:04:01,244\n就即便他們這個剛剛那個局長您所說的缺席的這個名單雖然他們有一些這個人因為是習近平主持的這個市中全會會缺席就蠻奇怪的那他們缺席的名單沒有公布那缺席的人這麼多是不是代表\n\n12\n00:04:02,044 --> 00:04:23,512\n在這一輪的這個整肅的高層官員當中遠多於我們報導的這個人數那這個情況到底是怎樣我們國安局有沒有確實去了解他有有有這我們都有了解缺席的名單我們通通都有掌握然後他有的是軍方的有的是政府部門的有的是黨務部門的那所以看起來範圍是蠻廣的\n\n13\n00:04:25,333 --> 00:04:53,465\n那以前也沒有看過缺席狀況有這麼高那再加上剛剛在各位說明的連地埔的委員都跳過軍方的代表那這個老實講已經打破了我們長期對中共黨政運作觀察的一些慣例了所以幾乎反映的一個意涵是在於在習近平獨攬軍權跟政權的情況之下已經開始出現一些新的運作模式或人事任命的一個方式這是比較全新的一個做法\n\n14\n00:04:54,025 --> 00:05:13,518\n好那另外我想請教我們局長齁在這次的這個公報當中顯示了中國在下一個五年經濟發展的這個規劃主要的方向他其中對台的部分齁只有提到這個要推動兩岸關係和平發展推動祖國統一大業這幾個字啦齁那基本上\n\n15\n00:05:14,358 --> 00:05:33,400\n看起來就是老調重談那在這次市中全會的公報內容與國安會預測的內容是否一致那其中是否隱藏有什麼政治意涵局長你怎麼解讀就事實上在市中全會之前他的地方的黨部已經密集的在開會\n\n16\n00:05:34,461 --> 00:06:00,544\n我們的方法論大概是從這些密集的地方性的黨務會議當中我們就會去收集延期在正式的四中全會可能會有哪些議題做呈現以及呈現在四中全會的公報裡面基本上我們的觀察是發現到說在這次的公報當中並沒有特別去針對習近平的接班的問題有任何的隱含式的討論沒有\n\n17\n00:06:01,505 --> 00:06:16,295\n那就代表他在大權在握之下可能還沒有在這一部分的接班佈局做更進一步的安排那第二部分是我們也預測到那可能在之前跟我們報告的軍方將領的大規模的清洗情況之下\n\n18\n00:06:16,895 --> 00:06:39,690\n那可能習近平在軍方的人事的任命上會非常的謹慎慎重那從實際的四中全會發展也大概印證了這樣的一個觀察不管是在中央委員的地補或是在中央軍委會的人員的地補上那看起來他都非常的保守所以大概我們事前預判的方式以及\n\n19\n00:06:40,891 --> 00:06:56,930\n跟原來的觀察大概差別不大那上次委員也有指導到市中全會經貿上的可能的重點那大概也跟委員之前報告的狀況差不多新職生產力擴大內需刺激國內的動能以及開放貿易好那\n\n20\n00:06:57,991 --> 00:07:24,250\n軍委方面我想有一個問題想請教局長這次這個由這個張申明來接任這個軍委的副主席安排那我們判斷可能是出於什麼樣的這個考量是否代表後續可能還會有大規模的一個內部整肅那另外先前也提到中國的這個國防部長董軍可能會出自於什麼樣的原因導致他沒有辦法接任中央軍委的這個位置我們國安局怎麼判斷\n\n21\n00:07:25,191 --> 00:07:43,628\n對因為張申明來接任中央軍委的副主席剛好說明過因為他年紀是比較長一點已經67歲了更不要講張又俠已經72了吧這代表說他對於年輕的將領還沒有那麼信任我們判斷是應該都還有在做一些相關的考核跟調查\n\n22\n00:07:44,008 --> 00:08:07,199\n而在大規模的考核跟調查完成之前讓可能中共領導人在任命軍方的人士他非常的非常的謹慎這大概是第一部分的說明那第二部分是針對董軍的部分那因為董軍是有國防部長的身份那傳統上國防部長負責的主要是對外的國防的交流那從董軍沒有進入到中央軍委會\n\n23\n00:08:07,939 --> 00:08:35,879\n我們的一個解讀可能還是在於說因為習近平現在軍權在握他也沒有特別在意說要不要讓負責國際交流的國防部長進入到軍委會這個作戰指揮或軍中管理體系裡面來所以可能他的評估看起來跟過去是比較不一樣不過這部分可能還要持續觀察以前真的是沒有發生過7名中央軍委選缺目前只有4名的狀況\n\n24\n00:08:37,020 --> 00:08:58,235\n運作這麼久一切沒有所以我剛才才跟委員說明是一個新的運作的方式好那目前這個解放軍在指揮層的這個缺員是否會影響到他們對台的規劃和能力那在增補前的這一段期間中共有沒有可能會採取其他的行動來轉移內部的壓力這部分局長您的看法\n\n25\n00:08:59,075 --> 00:09:27,351\n對他大概選缺的這些軍事的重要的指揮或司令員的這些職務都有相關的一個代理人這大概是第一部分的說明那第二部分的說明是也確實從他這兩年來的大規模的整肅不管是火箭軍的系統軍備的系統還是政工的系統在整肅調查的過程當中中共的軍事演訓也都持續的在進行\n\n26\n00:09:27,771 --> 00:09:48,935\n那所以這不能排除說中共是透過軍事演訓在轉移軍中內部整肅的這個焦點那也透過軍事演訓來讓部隊能夠軍心比較穩定一點聚焦在一些軍事訓練的活動那第三個部分可能也要注意的就是說在上層的中共的軍事將領到遭到大規模的整肅跟清洗之後\n\n27\n00:09:49,395 --> 00:10:01,169\n年輕一代將領為了求積極的表現會不會在有一些對外的軍事活動出現一些比較爭取表現或冒進的動作那這部分我們還在持續的觀察跟分析\n\n28\n00:10:02,025 --> 00:10:22,681\n好那從這次這個市中全會從會前到會後那何局長你討論下來我覺得我們國安局確實也有在掌握那可是後續的一些中共和解放軍他內部的相關情報也請我們國安局持續掌握掌握能夠積極的去了解是好謝謝謝謝局長\n\n","tsv":"start\tend\ttext\n762\t25913\t好 謝謝主席 我們有請蔡局長有請蔡局長好 局長早各位很早局長 就中共所召開的這個四中全會觀察以及後續的相關動態我想在上次的質詢當中這個主題我想再延續來請教我們局長上次跟局長您詢問到這個四中全會\n27153\t51591\t他相關的這個預測在這個上週四會議落幕之後我們從公開的這個資訊當中也看到確實除了這個十五五的這個規劃之外在會前就有包括這個何衛東苗華等九名上將因違反他們黨紀的相關問題涉嫌嚴重職務犯罪數額特大\n53357\t79524\t特別巨大 被開除黨籍及軍籍造成軍事降臨一波人事動盪甚至解放軍報還發表社論指責他們信仰坍塌 忠誠失節嚴重破壞黨指揮槍原則和軍委主席的負責制等等由此聯想 除了反腐敗的\n81246\t89731\t官方事由之外這九名上將是否可能有其他的罪名那我們國安局有沒有相關的掌握訊息\n92224\t112314\t對 剛剛委員在投影片上面大概也把這次四中全會我們觀察的重點議題也都大概羅列出來了謝謝大概可以看到的是這九名上將遭到雙開顯示說可能共軍內部這種貪腐跟忠誠的問題非常嚴重我們也注意到像委員提到的中共的軍媒\n113294\t135772\t軍方的媒體在評論這些案件的時候用字遣詞非常的強烈是以前比較沒有看到的一個狀況那我上次也跟委員報告事實上不只這九名我們掌握的有16名的上將大概從去年12月到現在都沒有公開露面所以當時也跟委員預測說可能會有比較大規模的整肅跟調查的一個動作\n136352\t155737\t另外是在這一次的市中全會的過程當中比較值得注意的是原本是應該有205位的中央委員但是出席的只有168位有37位是沒有出席的37位沒有出席的包括之前被查辦的以及剛剛跟委員說明的長期沒有出現的\n156877\t176336\t比例非常的高等於是佔了205名裡面的18%那這代表說那個調查的規模非常的大那另外延續性的問題也跟在畫面上委員所提到的就中央軍委的部分那中央軍委看起來是維持4名的中央軍委那並沒有在增補人員\n177177\t197237\t而且剛跟委員提到的中央委員的候補、地補的11名的名單也都跳過了軍方的代表所以這整體看下來可能顯示習近平對於軍方的降臨還是不太信任所以由張申明來直接接任軍委副主席因為張申明已經67歲了\n198698\t220549\t所以我們判斷上比較像是一個過渡性的人物不過他反映的是中共領導人對於軍方比較年輕一代將領的不信任所以中軍委的這種組成結構的縮小化那會不會造成領導人在軍事決策的偏聽或是造成一些軍事決策風險那這部分我們會再來注意好\n222510\t241244\t就即便他們這個剛剛那個局長您所說的缺席的這個名單雖然他們有一些這個人因為是習近平主持的這個市中全會會缺席就蠻奇怪的那他們缺席的名單沒有公布那缺席的人這麼多是不是代表\n242044\t263512\t在這一輪的這個整肅的高層官員當中遠多於我們報導的這個人數那這個情況到底是怎樣我們國安局有沒有確實去了解他有有有 這我們都有了解缺席的名單我們通通都有掌握然後他有的是軍方的有的是政府部門的有的是黨務部門的那所以看起來範圍是蠻廣的\n265333\t293465\t那以前也沒有看過缺席狀況有這麼高那再加上剛剛在各位說明的連地埔的委員都跳過軍方的代表那這個老實講已經打破了我們長期對中共黨政運作觀察的一些慣例了所以幾乎反映的一個意涵是在於在習近平獨攬軍權跟政權的情況之下已經開始出現一些新的運作模式或人事任命的一個方式這是比較全新的一個做法\n294025\t313518\t好 那另外我想請教我們局長齁在這次的這個公報當中顯示了中國在下一個五年經濟發展的這個規劃主要的方向他其中對台的部分齁只有提到這個要推動兩岸關係和平發展推動祖國統一大業這幾個字啦齁那基本上\n314358\t333400\t看起來就是老調重談那在這次市中全會的公報內容與國安會預測的內容是否一致那其中是否隱藏有什麼政治意涵局長你怎麼解讀就事實上在市中全會之前他的地方的黨部已經密集的在開會\n334461\t360544\t我們的方法論大概是從這些密集的地方性的黨務會議當中我們就會去收集延期在正式的四中全會可能會有哪些議題做呈現以及呈現在四中全會的公報裡面基本上我們的觀察是發現到說在這次的公報當中並沒有特別去針對習近平的接班的問題有任何的隱含式的討論 沒有\n361505\t376295\t那就代表他在大權在握之下可能還沒有在這一部分的接班佈局做更進一步的安排那第二部分是我們也預測到那可能在之前跟我們報告的軍方將領的大規模的清洗情況之下\n376895\t399690\t那可能習近平在軍方的人事的任命上會非常的謹慎慎重那從實際的四中全會發展也大概印證了這樣的一個觀察不管是在中央委員的地補或是在中央軍委會的人員的地補上那看起來他都非常的保守所以大概我們事前預判的方式以及\n400891\t416930\t跟原來的觀察大概差別不大那上次委員也有指導到市中全會經貿上的可能的重點那大概也跟委員之前報告的狀況差不多新職生產力擴大內需刺激國內的動能以及開放貿易好那\n417991\t444250\t軍委方面我想有一個問題想請教局長這次這個由這個張申明來接任這個軍委的副主席安排那我們判斷可能是出於什麼樣的這個考量是否代表後續可能還會有大規模的一個內部整肅那另外先前也提到中國的這個國防部長董軍可能會出自於什麼樣的原因導致他沒有辦法接任中央軍委的這個位置我們國安局怎麼判斷\n445191\t463628\t對 因為張申明來接任中央軍委的副主席剛好說明過 因為他年紀是比較長一點 已經67歲了更不要講張又俠已經72了吧這代表說他對於年輕的將領還沒有那麼信任我們判斷是應該都還有在做一些相關的考核跟調查\n464008\t487199\t而在大規模的考核跟調查完成之前讓可能中共領導人在任命軍方的人士他非常的非常的謹慎這大概是第一部分的說明那第二部分是針對董軍的部分那因為董軍是有國防部長的身份那傳統上國防部長負責的主要是對外的國防的交流那從董軍沒有進入到中央軍委會\n487939\t515879\t我們的一個解讀可能還是在於說因為習近平現在軍權在握他也沒有特別在意說要不要讓負責國際交流的國防部長進入到軍委會這個作戰指揮或軍中管理體系裡面來所以可能他的評估看起來跟過去是比較不一樣不過這部分可能還要持續觀察以前真的是沒有發生過7名中央軍委選缺目前只有4名的狀況\n517020\t538235\t運作這麼久 一切沒有 所以我剛才才跟委員說明是一個新的運作的方式好 那目前這個解放軍在指揮層的這個缺員是否會影響到他們對台的規劃和能力那在增補前的這一段期間 中共有沒有可能會採取其他的行動來轉移內部的壓力這部分局長您的看法\n539075\t567351\t對 他大概選缺的這些軍事的重要的指揮或司令員的這些職務都有相關的一個代理人這大概是第一部分的說明那第二部分的說明是也確實從他這兩年來的大規模的整肅不管是火箭軍的系統 軍備的系統 還是政工的系統在整肅調查的過程當中中共的軍事演訓也都持續的在進行\n567771\t588935\t那所以這不能排除說中共是透過軍事演訓在轉移軍中內部整肅的這個焦點那也透過軍事演訓來讓部隊能夠軍心比較穩定一點聚焦在一些軍事訓練的活動那第三個部分可能也要注意的就是說在上層的中共的軍事將領到遭到大規模的整肅跟清洗之後\n589395\t601169\t年輕一代將領為了求積極的表現會不會在有一些對外的軍事活動出現一些比較爭取表現或冒進的動作那這部分我們還在持續的觀察跟分析\n602025\t622681\t好 那從這次這個市中全會 從會前到會後那何局長你討論下來 我覺得我們國安局確實也有在掌握那可是後續的一些中共和解放軍他內部的相關情報也請我們國安局持續掌握 掌握能夠積極的去了解是 好 謝謝 謝謝局長\n","txt":"好 謝謝主席 我們有請蔡局長有請蔡局長好 局長早各位很早局長 就中共所召開的這個四中全會觀察以及後續的相關動態我想在上次的質詢當中這個主題我想再延續來請教我們局長上次跟局長您詢問到這個四中全會\n他相關的這個預測在這個上週四會議落幕之後我們從公開的這個資訊當中也看到確實除了這個十五五的這個規劃之外在會前就有包括這個何衛東苗華等九名上將因違反他們黨紀的相關問題涉嫌嚴重職務犯罪數額特大\n特別巨大 被開除黨籍及軍籍造成軍事降臨一波人事動盪甚至解放軍報還發表社論指責他們信仰坍塌 忠誠失節嚴重破壞黨指揮槍原則和軍委主席的負責制等等由此聯想 除了反腐敗的\n官方事由之外這九名上將是否可能有其他的罪名那我們國安局有沒有相關的掌握訊息\n對 剛剛委員在投影片上面大概也把這次四中全會我們觀察的重點議題也都大概羅列出來了謝謝大概可以看到的是這九名上將遭到雙開顯示說可能共軍內部這種貪腐跟忠誠的問題非常嚴重我們也注意到像委員提到的中共的軍媒\n軍方的媒體在評論這些案件的時候用字遣詞非常的強烈是以前比較沒有看到的一個狀況那我上次也跟委員報告事實上不只這九名我們掌握的有16名的上將大概從去年12月到現在都沒有公開露面所以當時也跟委員預測說可能會有比較大規模的整肅跟調查的一個動作\n另外是在這一次的市中全會的過程當中比較值得注意的是原本是應該有205位的中央委員但是出席的只有168位有37位是沒有出席的37位沒有出席的包括之前被查辦的以及剛剛跟委員說明的長期沒有出現的\n比例非常的高等於是佔了205名裡面的18%那這代表說那個調查的規模非常的大那另外延續性的問題也跟在畫面上委員所提到的就中央軍委的部分那中央軍委看起來是維持4名的中央軍委那並沒有在增補人員\n而且剛跟委員提到的中央委員的候補、地補的11名的名單也都跳過了軍方的代表所以這整體看下來可能顯示習近平對於軍方的降臨還是不太信任所以由張申明來直接接任軍委副主席因為張申明已經67歲了\n所以我們判斷上比較像是一個過渡性的人物不過他反映的是中共領導人對於軍方比較年輕一代將領的不信任所以中軍委的這種組成結構的縮小化那會不會造成領導人在軍事決策的偏聽或是造成一些軍事決策風險那這部分我們會再來注意好\n就即便他們這個剛剛那個局長您所說的缺席的這個名單雖然他們有一些這個人因為是習近平主持的這個市中全會會缺席就蠻奇怪的那他們缺席的名單沒有公布那缺席的人這麼多是不是代表\n在這一輪的這個整肅的高層官員當中遠多於我們報導的這個人數那這個情況到底是怎樣我們國安局有沒有確實去了解他有有有 這我們都有了解缺席的名單我們通通都有掌握然後他有的是軍方的有的是政府部門的有的是黨務部門的那所以看起來範圍是蠻廣的\n那以前也沒有看過缺席狀況有這麼高那再加上剛剛在各位說明的連地埔的委員都跳過軍方的代表那這個老實講已經打破了我們長期對中共黨政運作觀察的一些慣例了所以幾乎反映的一個意涵是在於在習近平獨攬軍權跟政權的情況之下已經開始出現一些新的運作模式或人事任命的一個方式這是比較全新的一個做法\n好 那另外我想請教我們局長齁在這次的這個公報當中顯示了中國在下一個五年經濟發展的這個規劃主要的方向他其中對台的部分齁只有提到這個要推動兩岸關係和平發展推動祖國統一大業這幾個字啦齁那基本上\n看起來就是老調重談那在這次市中全會的公報內容與國安會預測的內容是否一致那其中是否隱藏有什麼政治意涵局長你怎麼解讀就事實上在市中全會之前他的地方的黨部已經密集的在開會\n我們的方法論大概是從這些密集的地方性的黨務會議當中我們就會去收集延期在正式的四中全會可能會有哪些議題做呈現以及呈現在四中全會的公報裡面基本上我們的觀察是發現到說在這次的公報當中並沒有特別去針對習近平的接班的問題有任何的隱含式的討論 沒有\n那就代表他在大權在握之下可能還沒有在這一部分的接班佈局做更進一步的安排那第二部分是我們也預測到那可能在之前跟我們報告的軍方將領的大規模的清洗情況之下\n那可能習近平在軍方的人事的任命上會非常的謹慎慎重那從實際的四中全會發展也大概印證了這樣的一個觀察不管是在中央委員的地補或是在中央軍委會的人員的地補上那看起來他都非常的保守所以大概我們事前預判的方式以及\n跟原來的觀察大概差別不大那上次委員也有指導到市中全會經貿上的可能的重點那大概也跟委員之前報告的狀況差不多新職生產力擴大內需刺激國內的動能以及開放貿易好那\n軍委方面我想有一個問題想請教局長這次這個由這個張申明來接任這個軍委的副主席安排那我們判斷可能是出於什麼樣的這個考量是否代表後續可能還會有大規模的一個內部整肅那另外先前也提到中國的這個國防部長董軍可能會出自於什麼樣的原因導致他沒有辦法接任中央軍委的這個位置我們國安局怎麼判斷\n對 因為張申明來接任中央軍委的副主席剛好說明過 因為他年紀是比較長一點 已經67歲了更不要講張又俠已經72了吧這代表說他對於年輕的將領還沒有那麼信任我們判斷是應該都還有在做一些相關的考核跟調查\n而在大規模的考核跟調查完成之前讓可能中共領導人在任命軍方的人士他非常的非常的謹慎這大概是第一部分的說明那第二部分是針對董軍的部分那因為董軍是有國防部長的身份那傳統上國防部長負責的主要是對外的國防的交流那從董軍沒有進入到中央軍委會\n我們的一個解讀可能還是在於說因為習近平現在軍權在握他也沒有特別在意說要不要讓負責國際交流的國防部長進入到軍委會這個作戰指揮或軍中管理體系裡面來所以可能他的評估看起來跟過去是比較不一樣不過這部分可能還要持續觀察以前真的是沒有發生過7名中央軍委選缺目前只有4名的狀況\n運作這麼久 一切沒有 所以我剛才才跟委員說明是一個新的運作的方式好 那目前這個解放軍在指揮層的這個缺員是否會影響到他們對台的規劃和能力那在增補前的這一段期間 中共有沒有可能會採取其他的行動來轉移內部的壓力這部分局長您的看法\n對 他大概選缺的這些軍事的重要的指揮或司令員的這些職務都有相關的一個代理人這大概是第一部分的說明那第二部分的說明是也確實從他這兩年來的大規模的整肅不管是火箭軍的系統 軍備的系統 還是政工的系統在整肅調查的過程當中中共的軍事演訓也都持續的在進行\n那所以這不能排除說中共是透過軍事演訓在轉移軍中內部整肅的這個焦點那也透過軍事演訓來讓部隊能夠軍心比較穩定一點聚焦在一些軍事訓練的活動那第三個部分可能也要注意的就是說在上層的中共的軍事將領到遭到大規模的整肅跟清洗之後\n年輕一代將領為了求積極的表現會不會在有一些對外的軍事活動出現一些比較爭取表現或冒進的動作那這部分我們還在持續的觀察跟分析\n好 那從這次這個市中全會 從會前到會後那何局長你討論下來 我覺得我們國安局確實也有在掌握那可是後續的一些中共和解放軍他內部的相關情報也請我們國安局持續掌握 掌握能夠積極的去了解是 好 謝謝 謝謝局長\n","vtt":"WEBVTT\n\n00:00.762 --> 00:25.913\n好謝謝主席我們有請蔡局長有請蔡局長好局長早各位很早局長就中共所召開的這個四中全會觀察以及後續的相關動態我想在上次的質詢當中這個主題我想再延續來請教我們局長上次跟局長您詢問到這個四中全會\n\n00:27.153 --> 00:51.591\n他相關的這個預測在這個上週四會議落幕之後我們從公開的這個資訊當中也看到確實除了這個十五五的這個規劃之外在會前就有包括這個何衛東苗華等九名上將因違反他們黨紀的相關問題涉嫌嚴重職務犯罪數額特大\n\n00:53.357 --> 01:19.524\n特別巨大被開除黨籍及軍籍造成軍事降臨一波人事動盪甚至解放軍報還發表社論指責他們信仰坍塌忠誠失節嚴重破壞黨指揮槍原則和軍委主席的負責制等等由此聯想除了反腐敗的\n\n01:21.246 --> 01:29.731\n官方事由之外這九名上將是否可能有其他的罪名那我們國安局有沒有相關的掌握訊息\n\n01:32.224 --> 01:52.314\n對剛剛委員在投影片上面大概也把這次四中全會我們觀察的重點議題也都大概羅列出來了謝謝大概可以看到的是這九名上將遭到雙開顯示說可能共軍內部這種貪腐跟忠誠的問題非常嚴重我們也注意到像委員提到的中共的軍媒\n\n01:53.294 --> 02:15.772\n軍方的媒體在評論這些案件的時候用字遣詞非常的強烈是以前比較沒有看到的一個狀況那我上次也跟委員報告事實上不只這九名我們掌握的有16名的上將大概從去年12月到現在都沒有公開露面所以當時也跟委員預測說可能會有比較大規模的整肅跟調查的一個動作\n\n02:16.352 --> 02:35.737\n另外是在這一次的市中全會的過程當中比較值得注意的是原本是應該有205位的中央委員但是出席的只有168位有37位是沒有出席的37位沒有出席的包括之前被查辦的以及剛剛跟委員說明的長期沒有出現的\n\n02:36.877 --> 02:56.336\n比例非常的高等於是佔了205名裡面的18%那這代表說那個調查的規模非常的大那另外延續性的問題也跟在畫面上委員所提到的就中央軍委的部分那中央軍委看起來是維持4名的中央軍委那並沒有在增補人員\n\n02:57.177 --> 03:17.237\n而且剛跟委員提到的中央委員的候補、地補的11名的名單也都跳過了軍方的代表所以這整體看下來可能顯示習近平對於軍方的降臨還是不太信任所以由張申明來直接接任軍委副主席因為張申明已經67歲了\n\n03:18.698 --> 03:40.549\n所以我們判斷上比較像是一個過渡性的人物不過他反映的是中共領導人對於軍方比較年輕一代將領的不信任所以中軍委的這種組成結構的縮小化那會不會造成領導人在軍事決策的偏聽或是造成一些軍事決策風險那這部分我們會再來注意好\n\n03:42.510 --> 04:01.244\n就即便他們這個剛剛那個局長您所說的缺席的這個名單雖然他們有一些這個人因為是習近平主持的這個市中全會會缺席就蠻奇怪的那他們缺席的名單沒有公布那缺席的人這麼多是不是代表\n\n04:02.044 --> 04:23.512\n在這一輪的這個整肅的高層官員當中遠多於我們報導的這個人數那這個情況到底是怎樣我們國安局有沒有確實去了解他有有有這我們都有了解缺席的名單我們通通都有掌握然後他有的是軍方的有的是政府部門的有的是黨務部門的那所以看起來範圍是蠻廣的\n\n04:25.333 --> 04:53.465\n那以前也沒有看過缺席狀況有這麼高那再加上剛剛在各位說明的連地埔的委員都跳過軍方的代表那這個老實講已經打破了我們長期對中共黨政運作觀察的一些慣例了所以幾乎反映的一個意涵是在於在習近平獨攬軍權跟政權的情況之下已經開始出現一些新的運作模式或人事任命的一個方式這是比較全新的一個做法\n\n04:54.025 --> 05:13.518\n好那另外我想請教我們局長齁在這次的這個公報當中顯示了中國在下一個五年經濟發展的這個規劃主要的方向他其中對台的部分齁只有提到這個要推動兩岸關係和平發展推動祖國統一大業這幾個字啦齁那基本上\n\n05:14.358 --> 05:33.400\n看起來就是老調重談那在這次市中全會的公報內容與國安會預測的內容是否一致那其中是否隱藏有什麼政治意涵局長你怎麼解讀就事實上在市中全會之前他的地方的黨部已經密集的在開會\n\n05:34.461 --> 06:00.544\n我們的方法論大概是從這些密集的地方性的黨務會議當中我們就會去收集延期在正式的四中全會可能會有哪些議題做呈現以及呈現在四中全會的公報裡面基本上我們的觀察是發現到說在這次的公報當中並沒有特別去針對習近平的接班的問題有任何的隱含式的討論沒有\n\n06:01.505 --> 06:16.295\n那就代表他在大權在握之下可能還沒有在這一部分的接班佈局做更進一步的安排那第二部分是我們也預測到那可能在之前跟我們報告的軍方將領的大規模的清洗情況之下\n\n06:16.895 --> 06:39.690\n那可能習近平在軍方的人事的任命上會非常的謹慎慎重那從實際的四中全會發展也大概印證了這樣的一個觀察不管是在中央委員的地補或是在中央軍委會的人員的地補上那看起來他都非常的保守所以大概我們事前預判的方式以及\n\n06:40.891 --> 06:56.930\n跟原來的觀察大概差別不大那上次委員也有指導到市中全會經貿上的可能的重點那大概也跟委員之前報告的狀況差不多新職生產力擴大內需刺激國內的動能以及開放貿易好那\n\n06:57.991 --> 07:24.250\n軍委方面我想有一個問題想請教局長這次這個由這個張申明來接任這個軍委的副主席安排那我們判斷可能是出於什麼樣的這個考量是否代表後續可能還會有大規模的一個內部整肅那另外先前也提到中國的這個國防部長董軍可能會出自於什麼樣的原因導致他沒有辦法接任中央軍委的這個位置我們國安局怎麼判斷\n\n07:25.191 --> 07:43.628\n對因為張申明來接任中央軍委的副主席剛好說明過因為他年紀是比較長一點已經67歲了更不要講張又俠已經72了吧這代表說他對於年輕的將領還沒有那麼信任我們判斷是應該都還有在做一些相關的考核跟調查\n\n07:44.008 --> 08:07.199\n而在大規模的考核跟調查完成之前讓可能中共領導人在任命軍方的人士他非常的非常的謹慎這大概是第一部分的說明那第二部分是針對董軍的部分那因為董軍是有國防部長的身份那傳統上國防部長負責的主要是對外的國防的交流那從董軍沒有進入到中央軍委會\n\n08:07.939 --> 08:35.879\n我們的一個解讀可能還是在於說因為習近平現在軍權在握他也沒有特別在意說要不要讓負責國際交流的國防部長進入到軍委會這個作戰指揮或軍中管理體系裡面來所以可能他的評估看起來跟過去是比較不一樣不過這部分可能還要持續觀察以前真的是沒有發生過7名中央軍委選缺目前只有4名的狀況\n\n08:37.020 --> 08:58.235\n運作這麼久一切沒有所以我剛才才跟委員說明是一個新的運作的方式好那目前這個解放軍在指揮層的這個缺員是否會影響到他們對台的規劃和能力那在增補前的這一段期間中共有沒有可能會採取其他的行動來轉移內部的壓力這部分局長您的看法\n\n08:59.075 --> 09:27.351\n對他大概選缺的這些軍事的重要的指揮或司令員的這些職務都有相關的一個代理人這大概是第一部分的說明那第二部分的說明是也確實從他這兩年來的大規模的整肅不管是火箭軍的系統軍備的系統還是政工的系統在整肅調查的過程當中中共的軍事演訓也都持續的在進行\n\n09:27.771 --> 09:48.935\n那所以這不能排除說中共是透過軍事演訓在轉移軍中內部整肅的這個焦點那也透過軍事演訓來讓部隊能夠軍心比較穩定一點聚焦在一些軍事訓練的活動那第三個部分可能也要注意的就是說在上層的中共的軍事將領到遭到大規模的整肅跟清洗之後\n\n09:49.395 --> 10:01.169\n年輕一代將領為了求積極的表現會不會在有一些對外的軍事活動出現一些比較爭取表現或冒進的動作那這部分我們還在持續的觀察跟分析\n\n10:02.025 --> 10:22.681\n好那從這次這個市中全會從會前到會後那何局長你討論下來我覺得我們國安局確實也有在掌握那可是後續的一些中共和解放軍他內部的相關情報也請我們國安局持續掌握掌握能夠積極的去了解是好謝謝謝謝局長\n\n","segments":[{"start":0.762,"end":25.913,"text":"好 謝謝主席 我們有請蔡局長有請蔡局長好 局長早各位很早局長 就中共所召開的這個四中全會觀察以及後續的相關動態我想在上次的質詢當中這個主題我想再延續來請教我們局長上次跟局長您詢問到這個四中全會"},{"start":27.153,"end":51.591,"text":"他相關的這個預測在這個上週四會議落幕之後我們從公開的這個資訊當中也看到確實除了這個十五五的這個規劃之外在會前就有包括這個何衛東苗華等九名上將因違反他們黨紀的相關問題涉嫌嚴重職務犯罪數額特大"},{"start":53.357,"end":79.524,"text":"特別巨大 被開除黨籍及軍籍造成軍事降臨一波人事動盪甚至解放軍報還發表社論指責他們信仰坍塌 忠誠失節嚴重破壞黨指揮槍原則和軍委主席的負責制等等由此聯想 除了反腐敗的"},{"start":81.246,"end":89.731,"text":"官方事由之外這九名上將是否可能有其他的罪名那我們國安局有沒有相關的掌握訊息"},{"start":92.224,"end":112.314,"text":"對 剛剛委員在投影片上面大概也把這次四中全會我們觀察的重點議題也都大概羅列出來了謝謝大概可以看到的是這九名上將遭到雙開顯示說可能共軍內部這種貪腐跟忠誠的問題非常嚴重我們也注意到像委員提到的中共的軍媒"},{"start":113.294,"end":135.772,"text":"軍方的媒體在評論這些案件的時候用字遣詞非常的強烈是以前比較沒有看到的一個狀況那我上次也跟委員報告事實上不只這九名我們掌握的有16名的上將大概從去年12月到現在都沒有公開露面所以當時也跟委員預測說可能會有比較大規模的整肅跟調查的一個動作"},{"start":136.352,"end":155.737,"text":"另外是在這一次的市中全會的過程當中比較值得注意的是原本是應該有205位的中央委員但是出席的只有168位有37位是沒有出席的37位沒有出席的包括之前被查辦的以及剛剛跟委員說明的長期沒有出現的"},{"start":156.877,"end":176.336,"text":"比例非常的高等於是佔了205名裡面的18%那這代表說那個調查的規模非常的大那另外延續性的問題也跟在畫面上委員所提到的就中央軍委的部分那中央軍委看起來是維持4名的中央軍委那並沒有在增補人員"},{"start":177.177,"end":197.237,"text":"而且剛跟委員提到的中央委員的候補、地補的11名的名單也都跳過了軍方的代表所以這整體看下來可能顯示習近平對於軍方的降臨還是不太信任所以由張申明來直接接任軍委副主席因為張申明已經67歲了"},{"start":198.698,"end":220.549,"text":"所以我們判斷上比較像是一個過渡性的人物不過他反映的是中共領導人對於軍方比較年輕一代將領的不信任所以中軍委的這種組成結構的縮小化那會不會造成領導人在軍事決策的偏聽或是造成一些軍事決策風險那這部分我們會再來注意好"},{"start":222.51,"end":241.244,"text":"就即便他們這個剛剛那個局長您所說的缺席的這個名單雖然他們有一些這個人因為是習近平主持的這個市中全會會缺席就蠻奇怪的那他們缺席的名單沒有公布那缺席的人這麼多是不是代表"},{"start":242.044,"end":263.512,"text":"在這一輪的這個整肅的高層官員當中遠多於我們報導的這個人數那這個情況到底是怎樣我們國安局有沒有確實去了解他有有有 這我們都有了解缺席的名單我們通通都有掌握然後他有的是軍方的有的是政府部門的有的是黨務部門的那所以看起來範圍是蠻廣的"},{"start":265.333,"end":293.465,"text":"那以前也沒有看過缺席狀況有這麼高那再加上剛剛在各位說明的連地埔的委員都跳過軍方的代表那這個老實講已經打破了我們長期對中共黨政運作觀察的一些慣例了所以幾乎反映的一個意涵是在於在習近平獨攬軍權跟政權的情況之下已經開始出現一些新的運作模式或人事任命的一個方式這是比較全新的一個做法"},{"start":294.025,"end":313.518,"text":"好 那另外我想請教我們局長齁在這次的這個公報當中顯示了中國在下一個五年經濟發展的這個規劃主要的方向他其中對台的部分齁只有提到這個要推動兩岸關係和平發展推動祖國統一大業這幾個字啦齁那基本上"},{"start":314.358,"end":333.4,"text":"看起來就是老調重談那在這次市中全會的公報內容與國安會預測的內容是否一致那其中是否隱藏有什麼政治意涵局長你怎麼解讀就事實上在市中全會之前他的地方的黨部已經密集的在開會"},{"start":334.461,"end":360.544,"text":"我們的方法論大概是從這些密集的地方性的黨務會議當中我們就會去收集延期在正式的四中全會可能會有哪些議題做呈現以及呈現在四中全會的公報裡面基本上我們的觀察是發現到說在這次的公報當中並沒有特別去針對習近平的接班的問題有任何的隱含式的討論 沒有"},{"start":361.505,"end":376.295,"text":"那就代表他在大權在握之下可能還沒有在這一部分的接班佈局做更進一步的安排那第二部分是我們也預測到那可能在之前跟我們報告的軍方將領的大規模的清洗情況之下"},{"start":376.895,"end":399.69,"text":"那可能習近平在軍方的人事的任命上會非常的謹慎慎重那從實際的四中全會發展也大概印證了這樣的一個觀察不管是在中央委員的地補或是在中央軍委會的人員的地補上那看起來他都非常的保守所以大概我們事前預判的方式以及"},{"start":400.891,"end":416.93,"text":"跟原來的觀察大概差別不大那上次委員也有指導到市中全會經貿上的可能的重點那大概也跟委員之前報告的狀況差不多新職生產力擴大內需刺激國內的動能以及開放貿易好那"},{"start":417.991,"end":444.25,"text":"軍委方面我想有一個問題想請教局長這次這個由這個張申明來接任這個軍委的副主席安排那我們判斷可能是出於什麼樣的這個考量是否代表後續可能還會有大規模的一個內部整肅那另外先前也提到中國的這個國防部長董軍可能會出自於什麼樣的原因導致他沒有辦法接任中央軍委的這個位置我們國安局怎麼判斷"},{"start":445.191,"end":463.628,"text":"對 因為張申明來接任中央軍委的副主席剛好說明過 因為他年紀是比較長一點 已經67歲了更不要講張又俠已經72了吧這代表說他對於年輕的將領還沒有那麼信任我們判斷是應該都還有在做一些相關的考核跟調查"},{"start":464.008,"end":487.199,"text":"而在大規模的考核跟調查完成之前讓可能中共領導人在任命軍方的人士他非常的非常的謹慎這大概是第一部分的說明那第二部分是針對董軍的部分那因為董軍是有國防部長的身份那傳統上國防部長負責的主要是對外的國防的交流那從董軍沒有進入到中央軍委會"},{"start":487.939,"end":515.879,"text":"我們的一個解讀可能還是在於說因為習近平現在軍權在握他也沒有特別在意說要不要讓負責國際交流的國防部長進入到軍委會這個作戰指揮或軍中管理體系裡面來所以可能他的評估看起來跟過去是比較不一樣不過這部分可能還要持續觀察以前真的是沒有發生過7名中央軍委選缺目前只有4名的狀況"},{"start":517.02,"end":538.235,"text":"運作這麼久 一切沒有 所以我剛才才跟委員說明是一個新的運作的方式好 那目前這個解放軍在指揮層的這個缺員是否會影響到他們對台的規劃和能力那在增補前的這一段期間 中共有沒有可能會採取其他的行動來轉移內部的壓力這部分局長您的看法"},{"start":539.075,"end":567.351,"text":"對 他大概選缺的這些軍事的重要的指揮或司令員的這些職務都有相關的一個代理人這大概是第一部分的說明那第二部分的說明是也確實從他這兩年來的大規模的整肅不管是火箭軍的系統 軍備的系統 還是政工的系統在整肅調查的過程當中中共的軍事演訓也都持續的在進行"},{"start":567.771,"end":588.935,"text":"那所以這不能排除說中共是透過軍事演訓在轉移軍中內部整肅的這個焦點那也透過軍事演訓來讓部隊能夠軍心比較穩定一點聚焦在一些軍事訓練的活動那第三個部分可能也要注意的就是說在上層的中共的軍事將領到遭到大規模的整肅跟清洗之後"},{"start":589.395,"end":601.169,"text":"年輕一代將領為了求積極的表現會不會在有一些對外的軍事活動出現一些比較爭取表現或冒進的動作那這部分我們還在持續的觀察跟分析"},{"start":602.025,"end":622.681,"text":"好 那從這次這個市中全會 從會前到會後那何局長你討論下來 我覺得我們國安局確實也有在掌握那可是後續的一些中共和解放軍他內部的相關情報也請我們國安局持續掌握 掌握能夠積極的去了解是 好 謝謝 謝謝局長"}]}}},"gazette":{"lineno":110,"blocks":[["陳委員俊宇：（9時32分）謝謝主席，有請蔡局長。"],["主席：有請蔡局長。"],["陳委員俊宇：局長早。"],["蔡局長明彥：委員早。"],["陳委員俊宇：局長，就中共所召開的四中全會觀察以及後續的相關動態，我想就上次質詢當中的這個主題再延續來請教局長。上次跟局長您詢問到四中全會，相關的預測在上週四會議落幕之後，我們從公開的資訊當中也看到確實除了「十五五」的規劃之外，在會前就有包括何衛東、苗華等9名上將，因違反黨紀的相關問題，涉嫌嚴重職務犯罪，數額特別巨大，被開除黨籍及軍籍，造成軍事將領的一波人事動盪。甚至解放軍報還發表社論，指責他們「信仰坍塌、忠誠失節」，嚴重破壞黨指揮槍原則和軍委主席負責制等等，由此聯想，除了反腐敗這個官方事由之外，這9名上將是否可能有其他的罪名，國安局有沒有掌握相關的訊息？"],["蔡局長明彥：剛剛委員在投影片上面，大概也把這次四中全會我們觀察的重點議題都羅列出來了，謝謝。大概可以看到的是，這9名上將遭到雙開，顯示可能在共軍內部貪腐跟忠誠的問題非常嚴重，我們也注意到像委員提到的，中共的軍方媒體在評論這些案件的時候，用字遣詞非常地強烈，是以前比較沒有看到的狀況。我上次也跟委員報告，事實上不只這9名，我們掌握的有16名上將，大概從去年12月到現在都沒有公開露面，所以當時也跟委員預測說，可能會有比較大規模的整肅跟調查動作。","另外在這一次四中全會的過程當中，比較值得注意的是原本應該有205位中央委員，但是出席的只有168位，有37位是沒有出席的，那37位沒有出席的，包括之前被查辦的以及剛剛跟委員說明的長期沒有出現的，比例非常的高，等於是占了205名裡面的18%，這代表調查的規模非常的大。另外延續性的問題，即PPT畫面上委員所提到中央軍委的部分，看起來是維持4名的中央軍委，並沒有再增補人員，而且剛剛跟委員提到的11名中央委員候補名單，也都跳過了軍方的代表，所以整體看起來，可能顯示習近平對於軍方的將領還是不太信任，所以由張升民直接接任軍委副主席。因為張升民已經67歲了，所以我們判斷比較像是一個過渡性的人物，不過這反映的是中共領導人對於軍方比較年輕一代將領的不信任，所以中央軍委組成結構的縮小化，那會不會造成領導人在軍事決策的偏聽或是造成一些軍事決策風險，這部分我們會再注意。"],["陳委員俊宇：好，即便就剛剛局長您所說的缺席名單，因為是習近平主持四中全會，會缺席就滿奇怪的，他們缺席的名單沒有公布，而缺席的人又這麼多，是不是代表在這一輪整肅的高層官員遠多於報導的人數？這個情況到底是怎樣，國安局有沒有確實去了解？"],["蔡局長明彥：有，這我們都有了解，缺席的名單我們通通都有掌握，有的是軍方、有的是政府部門、有的是黨務部門，所以看起來範圍是滿廣的，以前也沒有看過缺席狀況這麼高，再加上剛剛跟委員說明的，連遞補的委員都跳過軍方的代表，老實講已經打破了我們長期對中共黨政運作觀察的一些慣例了，所以幾乎反映了一個意涵，在習近平獨攬軍權跟政權的情況之下，已經開始出現一些新的運作模式或人事任命的方式，這是比較全新的作法。"],["陳委員俊宇：好。另外，我想請教局長，在這一次的公報當中，顯示了中國在下一個五年經濟發展的規劃主要方向，其中對臺的部分，只有提到要推動兩岸關係和平發展，推動祖國統一大業，基本上看起來就是老調重彈，在這次四中全會的公報內容，與國安會預測的內容是否一致，其中是否隱藏什麼政治意涵，局長，你怎麼解讀？"],["蔡局長明彥：事實上，在四中全會之前，地方黨部已經在密集地開會，我們的方法論大概是從這些密集的地方性的黨務會議當中，我們就會去蒐集研析在正式的四中全會可能會有哪些議題呈現，以及呈現在四中全會的公報裡面。基本上，依我們的觀察是發現到在這一次的公報當中，並沒有特別針對習近平的接班問題，有任何隱含式的討論，那就代表他在大權在握之下，可能還沒有就這部分的接班布局做更進一步地安排。第二個部分是，我們也預測到，之前跟委員報告的，軍方將領的大規模清洗情況之下，可能習近平在軍方的人事任命上會非常的謹慎、慎重，從實際的四中全會發展，大概也印證了這樣的觀察，不管是在中央委員的遞補，或是在中央軍委會人員的遞補，看起來都非常的保守，所以我們事前預判的方式跟原來的觀察，大概差別不大。上次委員也有指導四中全會經貿上可能的重點，大概也跟委員之前報告的狀況差不多，新質生產力、擴大內需、刺激國內的動能以及開放貿易。"],["陳委員俊宇：好。軍委方面，我有一個問題想請教局長，這次由張升民接任軍委副主席的安排，判斷可能是出於什麼樣的考量？是否代表後續可能還會有大規模的內部整肅？另外，先前也提到中國的國防部長董軍，可能出自於什麼樣的原因，導致他沒有辦法接任中央軍委的位置，國安局怎麼判讀？"],["蔡局長明彥：因為張升民來接任中央軍委的副主席，剛剛有說明過他年紀是比較長一點，已經67歲了，更不用講張又俠已經72歲了吧，這代表他對於年輕的將領還沒有那麼信任，我們判斷應該都還有在做一些相關的考核跟調查，在大規模的考核跟調查完成之前，可能讓中共領導人在任命軍方的人士上非常、非常的謹慎，這大概是第一部分的說明。","第二是針對董軍的部分，因為董軍有國防部長的身分，傳統上國防部長負責的主要是對外的國防交流，從董軍沒有進入到中央軍委會，我們的解讀可能還是在於，因為習近平現在軍權在握，他也沒有特別在意要不要讓負責國際交流的國防部長，進入到軍委會這個作戰指揮或軍中管理體系裡面來，所以可能他的評估看起來跟過去是比較不一樣，不過這個部分可能還要持續觀察。以前真的沒有發生過7名中央軍委懸缺，目前只有4名的狀況，還運作這麼久，以前沒有，所以我剛剛才跟委員說明是一個新的運作方式。"],["陳委員俊宇：好。目前解放軍在指揮層的缺員，是否會影響到他們對臺的規劃和能力？在增補前的這段期間，中共有沒有可能採取其他行動來轉移內部的壓力？局長，這部分您的看法？"],["蔡局長明彥：懸缺的這些軍事重要指揮或司令員的職務，都有相關的代理人，這大概是第一部分的說明。第二部分的說明，確實從他這兩年來大規模的整肅，不管是火箭軍系統、軍備系統還是政工系統，在整肅、調查的過程當中，中共的軍事演訓也都持續地進行，所以這不能排除中共是透過軍事演訓在轉移軍中內部整肅的焦點，也透過軍事演訓來讓部隊能夠軍心比較穩定一點，聚焦在一些軍事訓練的活動。第三部分，可能也要注意的就是說，在上層的中共軍事將領，遭到大規模的整肅跟清洗之後，年輕一代將領為了求積極的表現，會不會在一些對外的軍事活動，出現一些比較爭取表現或冒進的動作？這部分我們還在持續地觀察跟分析。"],["陳委員俊宇：好，從這次四中全會的會前到會後，和局長您討論下來，我覺得我們國安局確實也有在掌握。"],["蔡局長明彥：謝謝。"],["陳委員俊宇：可是後續的一些中共和解放軍內部的相關情報，也請我們國安局持續掌握，能夠積極地去了解。"],["蔡局長明彥：是，應該的，這是我們的工作，謝謝委員指導。"],["主席（王委員定宇）：謝謝剛才前面兩位委員的代班。","接下來進行詢答的委員是林楚茵委員。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":278,"meet_id":"委員會-11-4-35-9","speakers":["王定宇","陳永康","羅美玲","陳俊宇","林楚茵","馬文君","徐巧芯","謝龍介","葉元之","賴士葆","郭昱晴","邱志偉","黃仁","沈伯洋","林憶君","陳冠廷"],"page_start":245,"meetingDate":["2025-10-29"],"gazette_id":"1148901","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1148901_00006"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第4會期外交及國防委員會第9次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請國家安全局報告「近期東亞情勢變化對我國影響之研析」，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1148901_00005"}}}