{"error":false,"id":["149814"],"data":{"IVOD_ID":149814,"IVOD_URL":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/149814","日期":"2024-03-13","會議資料":{"會議代碼":"委員會-11-1-20-3","會議代碼:str":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議","屆":11,"會期":1,"會次":3,"臨時會會次":null,"種類":"委員會","委員會代碼":[20],"委員會代碼:str":["財政委員會"],"標題":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議"},"影片種類":"Clip","開始時間":"2024-03-13T12:11:01+08:00","結束時間":"2024-03-13T12:18:03+08:00","影片長度":"00:07:02","支援功能":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/7ed54bd69a3b690391b9c2dc449eb1d2b77cff0621b76d91f8ba9b0039caa7a62d0461bc9268856f5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"謝衣鳯","委員發言時間":"12:11:01 - 12:18:03","會議時間":"2024-03-13T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議（事由：邀請行政院主計總處朱主計長澤民、審計部陳審計長瑞敏率所屬單位主管列席業務報告，並備質詢。\n【3月13日及14日二天一次會】）","gazette":{"lineno":1306,"blocks":[["謝委員衣鳯：（12時11分）主席好，我想要請主計長。"],["主席：好，請主計長。"],["朱主計長澤民：委員好。"],["謝委員衣鳯：主計長早。你那個茶葉蛋的調查沒有確實，我記得全家有一個麻辣茶葉蛋，好像二十幾塊。"],["朱主計長澤民：因為我不曉得有麻辣茶葉蛋，我們的同仁知道。謝謝。"],["謝委員衣鳯：好。那我想要請教你，你預估今年的CPI是1.85%。"],["朱主計長澤民：對。那個是沒有包括電價。謝謝。"],["謝委員衣鳯：沒有包括4月份電價？"],["朱主計長澤民：因為電價到底調多少幅度，目前我們不曉得，我們沒有辦法做預估。謝謝。"],["謝委員衣鳯：所以是不包含電價嘛？那2月份的物價指數升高，你說是因為基期的關係，所以年增率是3.08%嘛？"],["朱主計長澤民：對。"],["謝委員衣鳯：可是如果加上電價呢？如果未來加上電價，有沒有可能今年度的物價指數增幅會超過2%？"],["朱主計長澤民：可能。但是要看未來蔬菜水果的情況而定，因為蔬菜水果價格是未知數，可能受颱風或國際間能源價格的影響。"],["謝委員衣鳯：所以也有可能有其他因素，例如蔬果的價格。我看了前幾年的情況，物價上調的時候，PPI也同樣都會上調，PPI上升的時候，會不會讓製造業把因電價上漲而增加的成本轉嫁到所有消費者身上？"],["朱主計長澤民：可能，但是是不是完全、百分之百轉嫁，很難講，我想委員很清楚，要看供需彈性而定，而且如果技術進步的話，業者可以吸收這些成本。"],["謝委員衣鳯：但是大部分的情況下，電價上漲都會轉嫁到消費者身上，是不是？"],["朱主計長澤民：那就是直接效果，因為民生用電占CPI的權數大概是1.2%，但是從供給面來看，委員很清楚，成本會不會轉嫁，就是我剛才講的……"],["謝委員衣鳯：所以你覺得會超過2%，還是到2.5%？你的預測有時候都跟人家不一樣。"],["朱主計長澤民：因為我要看它的漲幅，至於漲價的程度，那個是假定。"],["謝委員衣鳯：所以目前的漲價幅度都是假定的？"],["朱主計長澤民：應該要看會有多少轉嫁，而且據我所知，台電的方案可能會有依規模大小，漲幅可能會不一樣。"],["謝委員衣鳯：工業用電的漲幅不一樣，是不是？"],["朱主計長澤民：據我所知，有這個規劃。未來要看電價審議委員會的審議決定。"],["謝委員衣鳯：但央行楊總裁說，未來CPI2%是常態，你贊不贊同？"],["朱主計長澤民：世界各國都是這麼認為，而且我們的2%跟其他國家比較起來，是比較低的。在東亞這幾個國家，我們只有比香港高。"],["謝委員衣鳯：所以你覺得未來臺灣的物價指數上漲的年增率都是2%？"],["朱主計長澤民：那應該是國際間的比較，我不敢說都是2%，我剛才講過，這些都是未知數，是不確定的。"],["謝委員衣鳯：好。","還有一件事情，除了電價上漲，在3月15日還有碳費審議委員會第一次開會，你預估今年的經濟成長率是3.43%，如果電價上漲，再加上碳費徵收等等相關因素產生，你有沒有信心今年的經濟成長率可以達到3.43%？"],["朱主計長澤民：跟委員報告，我們估計電費對GDP的影響大概是0.1%。"],["謝委員衣鳯：所以影響不大？"],["朱主計長澤民：我們當然要看它的漲幅，如果漲幅沒有那麼多，影響會比0.1%更低。"],["謝委員衣鳯：所以你的模型裡面顯示電價對於GDP的成長是沒有影響的？"],["朱主計長澤民：不能說沒有影響，跟委員報告，0.1%就是有兩百多億了。"],["謝委員衣鳯：到底是有還是沒有？"],["朱主計長澤民：當然有啊。兩百多億不小啊。因為我們的GDP今年可能接近25兆，0.1%就是大概兩百多億。"],["謝委員衣鳯：剛才聽起來好像沒有，你現在又說有，如果碳費加進去呢？"],["朱主計長澤民：碳費什麼時候調目前都還沒有確定。"],["謝委員衣鳯：所以還沒確定就對了？"],["朱主計長澤民：我們也沒有在估計不確定的東西，我如果每天都發布說會怎麼樣，這樣會影響政策。我一再強調，我們只做會計、統計的工作，只敘述統計，不做價值的敘述，我可以跟你講，以前的預測是在國發會。"],["謝委員衣鳯：我們不要在這裡談學術性的問題，我們討論一個問題，在什麼樣的情況下，你預估這3.43%不會達成？"],["朱主計長澤民：像是油價的上漲。"],["謝委員衣鳯：油價今年度因素很大，是不是？"],["朱主計長澤民：對。因為我們目前是以油價八十一塊多來估計，以接近82塊來估計，至於將來油價會不會有很大的影響，就看它的漲幅。"],["謝委員衣鳯：好。就只有油價嗎？還有什麼？"],["朱主計長澤民：當然還有，像國際原料的價格或者所謂的地緣政治、不確定因素，都可能。"],["謝委員衣鳯：好。我時間到了，謝謝。謝謝主計長。"],["主席：謝謝謝委員。謝謝主計長。","接著請張啓楷委員。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":128,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-20-3","speakers":["羅明才","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","賴惠員","李彥秀","王鴻薇","黃珊珊","顏寬恒","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","李坤城","陳玉珍","王世堅","謝衣鳯","張啓楷","鄭天財Sra 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媒體說的轉嫁的那應該要看他是否會有多少轉嫁而且他的據我知道台電的方案他可能會有一個規模大小可能漲幅可能會不一樣工業用電也漲幅不一樣是不是有據我知道有這個規劃未來這個要看電價審議委員會的那一個審議決定"},{"start":198.646,"end":218.705,"text":"但我們央行總裁說未來CPI 2%是常態你讚不讚同我是認為因為世界各國都是認為而且我們這個2%跟其他國家比較起來是比較低的在東亞這幾個國家我們只有比香港高"},{"start":221.542,"end":233.234,"text":"所以你覺得未來台灣的這個就是物價指數的上漲的年生率都是2%以上對那應該是國際間的比較我不敢說都是2%那個我剛才講的未知數是不確定的"},{"start":237.577,"end":265.424,"text":"還有一個事情這其實電價的上漲還有我們3月15號還有碳費的這個審議的那個第一次開會那你預估今年的經濟成長率是3.43%你認為如果電價上漲然後還有我們碳費徵收等等相關的這些因素產生的時候你這個3.43%你有沒有信心可以達到"},{"start":266.024,"end":267.526,"text":"所以不大當然要看到的"},{"start":281.408,"end":284.432,"text":"所以你的模型裡面顯示電價對於GDP的成長是沒有影響的?0.1跟委員報告0.1就是有200多億了"},{"start":300.967,"end":313.964,"text":"啊到底是有還是沒有當然有啊兩百多億不小啊因為我們的GDP大概是今年可能接近25兆啊那個0.1個百分點就是大概兩百多億啊"},{"start":316.688,"end":336.026,"text":"你剛才聽起來像沒有,你現在又說有,如果碳費加進去?碳費的話目前什麼時候調到都還沒有確定所以還沒確定就對了對,我們也沒有在做那個估計不確定的東西我在每天都要發布說會怎麼樣這樣的會影響政策我一再強調我們"},{"start":340.896,"end":345.018,"text":"我們討論一個在什麼樣子的情況下到底你預估的這個3.43%不會達成會怎麼樣不會達成"},{"start":367.83,"end":384.476,"text":"不過那個就是所謂的一個是什麼,像那個是什麼油價的上漲。油價今年度很,因素很大是不是?對,油價因為我們目前估計油價是以81塊多來,好來估計。80,接近82塊來,好來估計。那對於說將來油價的會一個很大的,會有一個影響,它的漲幅啦。好。"},{"start":397.048,"end":397.308,"text":"接下來我們請張祺凱委員"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}