{"error":false,"id":["149831"],"data":{"IVOD_ID":149831,"IVOD_URL":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/149831","日期":"2024-03-14","會議資料":{"會議代碼":"委員會-11-1-20-3","會議代碼:str":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議","屆":11,"會期":1,"會次":3,"臨時會會次":null,"種類":"委員會","委員會代碼":[20],"委員會代碼:str":["財政委員會"],"標題":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議"},"影片種類":"Clip","開始時間":"2024-03-14T09:15:34+08:00","結束時間":"2024-03-14T09:27:39+08:00","影片長度":"00:12:05","支援功能":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/38af2da376d231350b0bb113b381d07d9acded3ffe6c80faf8ba9b0039caa7a651013c85a2468dcd5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"林德福","委員發言時間":"09:15:34 - 09:27:39","會議時間":"2024-03-14T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質詢。\n【3月13日及14日二天一次會】）","gazette":{"lineno":78,"blocks":[["林委員德福：（9時15分）謝謝主席。楊總裁、與會央行各單位列席主管、本會的委員以及所有媒體記者女士先生。請楊總裁。"],["主席：楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：林委員早。"],["林委員德福：總裁早。我請教你，很多民眾最近一直在問，我們都知道最近ETF很夯，很多人認為它有股息分配，有的有月配，有的有季配，有的有半年配等等，在整個市場是真的非常夯，而且它所占的比例也很高，那我要請教總裁，像它這麼夯，你認為ETF到底存在哪些風險，你的看法呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：ETF的風險，第一個，它會助漲上去，大家都上去。"],["林委員德福：我看好像上去比較多，下來比較少，目前看是這樣。"],["楊總裁金龍：目前是這樣啦！但是……"],["林委員德福：還是整個大勢好？"],["楊總裁金龍：長久也是會波動，大家都上去，大家都下來，這就是它的風險，一樣的啦！就是說你投資資產的時候，都是會有這樣的一個風險。最近委員也知道，金管會對於ETF這樣的熱絡，它也覺得有一點太……我覺得它也認為是有一點太過、太熱了，所以它也要採取一些措施。"],["林委員德福：一些配合的措施。"],["楊總裁金龍：要來壓抑它的過度。"],["林委員德福：因為很多民眾想瞭解啊！央行你們的立場要讓大家瞭解。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，因為他都不曉得ETF是什麼，大家一窩蜂的就herding，就是金融市場裡面在講的群眾的效率，大家就一窩蜂的……"],["林委員德福：一窩蜂去追。"],["楊總裁金龍：一窩蜂，就像羊一樣一窩蜂的跳下去、跳下去，它這個是跳上去、跳上去。"],["林委員德福：這樣喔！"],["楊總裁金龍：嗯。"],["林委員德福：那我再請教總裁，主計總處預估今年的 CPI年增率上修0.21個百分點到1.85%，不過，這次的通膨預測並未包括電價調整，所以等到電價調整確定後，CPI有機會再往上修。那我請問總裁，電價調整對各行業的價格是不是一定會發生一些連鎖效應？"],["楊總裁金龍：我在想，基本上，它的直接效果是一定會有，而間接的效果，就是企業在電價調漲以後，企業的成本增高，它要轉嫁。"],["林委員德福：對。"],["楊總裁金龍：這個是看它轉嫁的力道如何。"],["林委員德福：那我要請教總裁，依您的看法，到底它會個別反應還是連鎖反應？還會不會有一些加乘效應，導致整個通膨預測失準？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，中央銀行很怕的是，我們很擔心的是會有一種連鎖性的……"],["林委員德福：會連鎖？"],["楊總裁金龍：第二個，會預期性的，因為我們打通膨是預防通膨的預期心理，這個我們非常注意，所以講到通膨，中央銀行是非常小心的。"],["林委員德福：如果要是個別反應，你認為哪些產業衝擊最大？個別的喔！"],["楊總裁金龍：個別的話，我想一般外食這些也都會啦！以前我有看過一個paper是產業關聯表，有哪些產業的衝擊會比較大，像電力或什麼的產業，它的衝擊就會更大。"],["林委員德福：就是用電戶用電大一點的衝擊面會越大。"],["楊總裁金龍：對啦！但是有些時候譬如像科技業的用電量大、提高、上升，但是它也不見得一定會轉嫁，因為它賺了足夠的利潤。"],["林委員德福：對，我知道。總裁，台電電價調整的方式是準備不分級距全面性調漲，只是漲幅的不同，雖然疫情後通膨似乎已經有控制，但你認為在這個時機來調漲電價適當嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，據我瞭解，經濟部也是為了，第一個要看我們的預算能夠補貼台電多少，所以我看報紙、我看媒體也都是在講1,000億或是1,500億，1,500億的話調升幅度就會比較小，1,000億的話調升幅度就比較大。現在經濟部也是在開會，到4月份就會做最後決定。"],["林委員德福：那你認為在這個時機點來調漲電價，對整個物價的影響會不會比過去油電雙漲那時候衝擊小，還是有可能發生難以預測的轉嫁效應呢？依您看。"],["楊總裁金龍：我覺得，基本上從以往來看，衝擊是不會很大。不過這一次是因為它提早提出來，所以大家就很廣泛地去討論這個議題，我比較擔心的是一個通膨預期的心理。"],["林委員德福：對啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：就它實際的一個影響，我在想也不是如大家所非常擔心的會一直調漲、調漲，也不會啦！從以前……"],["林委員德福：因為現在就在講，所以會不會可能發生難以預期的轉嫁效應？會不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：就主管機關來講的話，它的調整固定就是4月和10月嘛！"],["林委員德福：對。"],["楊總裁金龍：它因為虧損，以及為了維持物價穩定，它又有吸收一些成本，所以它也不得不提出來，這就是它不得不的地方。"],["林委員德福：總裁，12年前油電雙漲的背景，相信當時身為副總裁的你應該還記憶猶新。台經院景氣預測中心孫明德主任認為，從主計總處2月的消費者物價指數年增率暴漲至3.08%，加上4月電價調漲在即，利率的政策恐怕會有檢討的機會，那我請問總裁，下個禮拜中央銀行要開理監事會，會不會討論利率的問題呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：報告委員，每次利率的問題都會討論。"],["林委員德福：都會討論？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，也會討論，我相信會討論。"],["林委員德福：在通膨疑慮沒有消除，消費者物價指數有可能因為電價調漲出現2%的疑慮，請問總裁，央行下半年有沒有可能不會降息？會不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：剛剛我的報告裡面也有講到，美國、英國，還有歐元區市場現在都在預測它可能會下降，但是臺灣畢竟跟他們稍微不大一樣……"],["林委員德福：不大一樣？那你認為……"],["楊總裁金龍：不大一樣，因為我們臺灣升息的速度跟歐美這些不大一樣，我們是很委婉地、持續地、慢慢地提升。"],["林委員德福：我知道，要是像這種狀況會不會沒有降息反而是升息的可能？"],["楊總裁金龍：這個我們會討論？"],["林委員德福：會討論？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們會討論。"],["林委員德福：因為你要抑制通膨。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，我剛剛也是在講通膨的預期心理，至於這個預期，像以前我們的通膨都是1%左右，平均長期都是，現在假設是平均1.5%，或是1.5%到2%以上的話，這個很顯然就是結構性有一些改變，這個利率恐怕就不會像以前那樣的……"],["林委員德福：有可能會再往上調？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，利率恐怕不會像以前那麼的低檔。"],["林委員德福：總裁，因為媒體報導主計處估算如果民生用電調漲10%，對CPI直接影響是0.12%，並且企業電價調高也會轉嫁成本，加上最近包括健保掛號費調漲等等效應，今年通膨率將再度逼近2%的通膨警戒線，甚至於有可能破2%。總裁，對比油電雙漲時候那種經濟的情勢，本席認為目前的經濟環境應該是更為險峻。當時為了展現政府抑制通膨的決心，央行實施多項政策手段，請問面對4月電價調漲，央行準備好了嗎？還是真的要雙手一攤放任民生消費物資變成天花板物價持續地往上拉？會不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，我們會很謹慎的，這一次我們會很謹慎地來討論利率。"],["林委員德福：因為本席是憂心近期恐怕又有缺水的疑慮，再加上碳費要開徵後的影響，通膨捲土重來，請問總裁，這是經濟成長國家的民眾應該期待的一個結果嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：是啦，央行主要的目標還是通膨。"],["林委員德福：對。"],["楊總裁金龍：特別我剛剛所提到的通膨預期的心理，這個我們會很謹慎地、很周延地來討論。"],["林委員德福：我是希望在這方面你們要很審慎，怎麼來因應，多列一些看未來要怎麼去處理是最適當的。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["林委員德福：好，謝謝。"],["楊總裁金龍：委員，我們會的。"],["主席：下一位請吳秉叡吳委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":192,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-20-3","speakers":["羅明才","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","李彥秀","賴惠員","王鴻薇","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","黃珊珊","王世堅","李坤城","陳玉珍","顏寬恒","謝衣鳯","邱志偉","洪孟楷","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":129,"meetingDate":["2024-03-14"],"gazette_id":"1131301","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1131301_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質\n詢","agenda_id":"1131301_00003"}},"transcript":{"pyannote":[{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":1.2122187500000001,"end":2.86596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":3.5915937500000004,"end":4.08096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":5.00909375,"end":9.88596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":10.847843750000003,"end":18.59346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":19.555343750000002,"end":20.41596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":28.76909375,"end":28.80284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":28.80284375,"end":28.81971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":28.81971875,"end":32.29596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":29.54534375,"end":29.86596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":30.43971875,"end":30.878468750000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":31.688468750000002,"end":32.04284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":32.56596875,"end":33.32534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":33.94971875,"end":37.27409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":37.57784375,"end":57.05159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":50.065343750000004,"end":50.267843750000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":57.49034375,"end":58.13159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":58.367843750000006,"end":65.18534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":65.72534375000001,"end":69.40409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":69.65721875,"end":70.29846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":70.63596875,"end":72.61034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":73.75784375,"end":74.63534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":74.98971875000001,"end":82.31346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":82.61721875,"end":83.81534375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":84.72659375,"end":86.86971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":87.25784375,"end":90.36284375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":87.44346875000001,"end":88.15221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":90.36284375000001,"end":90.37971875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":91.24034375000001,"end":103.60971875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":91.27409375,"end":92.80971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":93.28221875000001,"end":93.88971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":94.37909375000001,"end":95.27346875},{"speaker":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我們是預防這個通膨的預期的心理 這個我們非常注意 所以通膨啊 講到通膨啊 中央銀行是非常小心的 那如果要是個別反應 你認為哪些產業衝擊最大 個別的喔"},{"start":264.734,"end":264.754,"text":"對啦"},{"start":291.534,"end":304.161,"text":"當然啦當然但是呢就是說有些時候比如像說那個科技業他的那個用電量提高上升但是呢他也不見得他一定會轉嫁因為他他賺了足夠的"},{"start":308.003,"end":322.014,"text":"總裁,台電電價調整的方式是準備不分局劇,全面性的調漲只是漲幅的不同雖然疫情後通膨似乎已經有控制但你認為在這個時機來調漲電價,你認為適當嗎?"},{"start":326.737,"end":352.585,"text":"我跟委員報告這個也就是說經濟部據我了解經濟部也是為了就是說第一個就是說要看我們的預算給能夠補貼我們台電多少所以呢我看報紙啊我看媒體啊他也都是在講啊一千億或是一千五百億一千五百億的話他的調升呢他的幅度就會比較小一千億的話呢他的調升的幅度就會比較大"},{"start":353.385,"end":362.011,"text":"那現在呢就是說經濟部呢他也是就是說他們現在也是在開什麼會那這4月份的話就會做最後的那你認為在這個時機點來調漲電價對整個物價的影響會不會比過去啊有點雙長"},{"start":370.057,"end":393.996,"text":"那時候衝擊小還是有可能發生能預測的轉嫁效應呢因您看我覺得基本上從以往的來看衝擊是不會是很大不過這一次是因為他提早提出來所以大家都是很廣泛的去討論這個議題我比較擔心的是一個通膨預期的心理"},{"start":400.243,"end":416.862,"text":"對啊那那就是就他實際的一個影響呢我在想呢也不是如大家所說非常擔心的就是說我我會大家都會一直一直調漲調漲也不會說有可能以前等你先前現在就在講嗯會不會就是"},{"start":417.603,"end":434.775,"text":"而這個可能發生難以預期的這些轉嫁效應會不會因為因為好因為就是說就就主管機關來講的話呢他因為他他的條條條條整呢是固定的就是4月嗎4月和10月嗎對這個呢"},{"start":436.056,"end":456.524,"text":"所以呢他又因為他也會因為虧損因為就為了維持啊物價的穩定啊所以呢他吸收一些的成本那所以他也不得不提出來這個就是他不得不的地方總裁因為12年前郵電雙廠的背景相信當時身為副總裁的你啊應該還記憶猶新啊"},{"start":459.325,"end":480.444,"text":"台晶園景氣預測中心孫明德主任認為說從主計總處二月的消費者物價指數年增率暴漲至3.08%再加上四月電價調漲再急利率恐怕"},{"start":481.545,"end":498.358,"text":"會有檢討的機會這些政策利率的政策可能會有檢討的機會那我請問總裁下個禮拜這個中央銀行要開理監事會會不會討論利率的問題包委員每次呢這個利率的問題都會討論也就是說對也會討論"},{"start":503.399,"end":518.867,"text":"但是在通膨餘率沒有消除消費者物價指數有可能因為電價調漲出現百分之二的餘率啊那請問總裁央行下半年有沒有可能不會降息會不會"},{"start":523.311,"end":542.261,"text":"嗯...剛剛我的報告裡面有講到就是說美國還有英國還有歐元區都在就是說現在市場都在預測說它可能會下降但是台灣畢竟跟他們稍微不大一樣不大一樣所以呢基本上我都覺得就是說通膨高"},{"start":544.163,"end":558.818,"text":"因為我們台灣升息的速度跟歐美這些不大一樣我們是很委婉的持續的慢慢的上升我知道那要是像這種狀況會不會說沒有降息反而是升息的可能這個我們會討論"},{"start":561.16,"end":580.14,"text":"會討論會討論因為你要一致通膨是我們特別我剛剛也是在講就是說通膨的預期心理那這個通膨的預期心理那如果說這個預期如果說像以前我們的通膨都是1%左右平均長期都是平均那現在如果假設說是平均1.5"},{"start":581.861,"end":595.794,"text":"或是1.5到2%以上的話那這個呢很顯然就是結果性有一些的改變那這個利率呢恐怕就不會像以前那樣的利率呢就恐怕不會像以前的那麼的低檔那個"},{"start":599.199,"end":608.288,"text":"總裁,因為主計長媒體報導說主計處估算如果民生用電調漲10%對CPI直接影響是0.12%並且企業電價調高也會轉嫁成本加上最近"},{"start":617.637,"end":633.069,"text":"包括這個卷寶的掛號會啊條長等等效應啊今年通膨率將再度逼近啊百分之二的通膨警戒警戒線甚至有可能破百分之二總裁那對比油電雙漲的時候"},{"start":634.89,"end":658.76,"text":"那種經濟的情勢本席是認為目前的經濟環境應該是更為險峻那當時為了展現政府意志通膨的決心央行實施多項的政策手段請問面對4月電價調漲央行準備好了嗎還是真的要雙手一攤放任民生這些消費的物資這個"},{"start":661.261,"end":684.492,"text":"變成天花板的物價持續的往上拉我該委員報告我們會很謹慎的我們會這一次會很謹慎的來討論這個利率因為本期是憂心說近期恐怕又有缺水的餘率再加上碳會要開增後的影響通盆捲土重來那請問總裁這是經濟成長國家的民眾應該期待的一個結果嗎"},{"start":690.014,"end":690.174,"text":"教會請吳秉瑞吳委員諮詢"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}