{"error":false,"id":["149848"],"data":{"IVOD_ID":149848,"IVOD_URL":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/149848","日期":"2024-03-14","會議資料":{"會議代碼":"委員會-11-1-20-3","會議代碼:str":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議","屆":11,"會期":1,"會次":3,"臨時會會次":null,"種類":"委員會","委員會代碼":[20],"委員會代碼:str":["財政委員會"],"標題":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議"},"影片種類":"Clip","開始時間":"2024-03-14T09:51:51+08:00","結束時間":"2024-03-14T10:04:25+08:00","影片長度":"00:12:34","支援功能":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/38af2da376d231354e4cb9ded1d8ea9d9acded3ffe6c80faf8ba9b0039caa7a6f3ee4f7ce62287085ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"郭國文","委員發言時間":"09:51:51 - 10:04:25","會議時間":"2024-03-14T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質詢。\n【3月13日及14日二天一次會】）","gazette":{"lineno":308,"blocks":[["郭委員國文：（9時51分）謝謝主席，主席辛苦了，有請楊總裁。"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：郭委員早。"],["郭委員國文：總裁好。總裁，拜讀了你今天的業務報告，內容當中預估今年CPI的部分是1.89%，GDP是3.12%，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["郭委員國文：可是我這3年觀察你的預估值，包括CPI也好，或GDP也好，這有一個特性，也就是CPI的部分，通膨指數的部分都是在2%以下；GDP則都是2%以上，我發現都有這個特性，因為2%是一個很重要的門檻。","可是到我們回顧這2年，2022年你預估的CPI是多少？2021年的時候，預估是1.59%，但事實上2022年就變成2.95%；2022年的時候預估的GDP是多少？預估4.03%，但實際上是2.45%；到了去年2023年，CPI通膨的部分你是預估1.88，實際上是2.5%；2023年GDP的部分，你是預估2.53%，實際上是1.2%。特別是去年，該2%以下的，後來它超過，CPI變成2.5%；該2%以上的，GDP它變成2%以下，變成1.2%，所以去年就有人說，是不是可能會有停滯性通膨，當然是沒有那麼嚴重，但接近啦！有那種跡象啦！總裁，你今年的預估會準嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，事實上，就是說……"],["郭委員國文：你前2年都漏氣了！而且你還有動用升息！"],["楊總裁金龍：我要誠實地跟委員報告，確實央行這幾年的預測都沒有很準確……"],["郭委員國文：都不準啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：也許我這樣子講，委員會認為我在推卸責任，事實上，全球每一個機構的預測都沒有準！"],["郭委員國文：你有比較過全球每一個機構的預測都沒有準？那你是比較不準的那一個還是比較接近準的那一個？"],["楊總裁金龍：也許我們會比較準，我們是不準，但是也比較準。"],["郭委員國文：有這麼接近不準的準嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：對！對！我跟委員報告，預測……"],["郭委員國文：可是臺灣人民不會去看其他機構，只會看你而已啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：當然！當然！但是我要跟委員報告，這幾年為什麼大家都是不準的，你要想想看喔！從中美貿易衝突之後，過來就是COVID-19、俄烏戰爭，美國supply chain、value chain的bottleneck……"],["郭委員國文：這就是考驗您的實力啊！總體經濟變化啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，那個時候Fed也就是因為它沒有預測得很準，而且它應該升息的時候沒有升息，後來Fed就被罵得很慘。"],["郭委員國文：總裁，不好意思，我要打斷你，因為那個真的是大問題，我沒有時間聽你說，雖然我很願意聽，但質詢時間非常寶貴。我現在就問你，明年你有沒有把握嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：明年，我現在就是說……"],["郭委員國文：你剛剛講的那個已經發生好幾年了，現在沒有新的國際情勢變數了！"],["楊總裁金龍：所以我剛剛跟委員報告……"],["郭委員國文：中美衝突已經衝突好幾年了，國際戰爭也一直在持續喔！"],["楊總裁金龍：對！對……"],["郭委員國文：所以在這種情況底下，在變數沒有變的情況底下，你保證這個3.12%跟1.89%可以達成嗎？明年我還會在這個委員會啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：我想，3.12%是比較容易啦！然後CPI的1.89%，就是2024年的1.89%，我跟委員報告，我們的1.89%沒有放進電價的部分。"],["郭委員國文：所以1.89%的挑戰性比較高、變數比較大，所以1.89%比較沒有把握；GDP3.12%的部分比較有把握？"],["楊總裁金龍：但是我要跟委員報告，關於這個CPI，我們3月份的理監事會會很謹慎地去討論。"],["郭委員國文：真的要很謹慎，我知道，但是你都不會講到底會不會調，所以我不用問了。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：接下來我要問，總裁，你不只這件事失準，我今天不是來給你漏氣的，之前你也是說2023年上半年房市會開始軟著陸，量先價行，我看了最近的一些報紙標題，連中經院對房市都說，2024上半年景氣的表現會看好，民間一些的地產網、一些的媒體都說以後會開綠燈，然後今天我拜讀了你的報告，就像我之前一直問你，為什麼資本一直集中在房地產，結果你今天報告竟然說是因為青安貸，總裁，千萬不要這樣寫啦！青安貸是政府體貼青年，給他居住正義的一個政策工具，結果青安貸所有的餘款，夯不啷噹加起來，我算了一下，7,929億的餘額，也不過占所有目前不動產占比13.7兆當中的0.57%，你在報告當中卻把它推給青安貸，這對青年、對政策都是一種否定啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有！沒有！我們只是說……"],["郭委員國文：我真的沒有辦法接受你把青安貸變成是推高房價的一個幫兇。"],["楊總裁金龍：我沒有說它是推高房價的幫兇，我沒有這樣子說。"],["郭委員國文：你沒有這樣寫，但你把它弄成是主要的原因，這樣不對啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：不是！我們是說……"],["郭委員國文：我不只要罵你而已，我還要罵財政部。"],["楊總裁金龍：不會啦！事實上，我跟委員報告……"],["郭委員國文：我來讓你看一下數字，不動產放款的比例，真的是往上攀升，目前高達37.4%。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["郭委員國文：37.4%，是越來越高，也就是說，我們信用管制的結果，它越來越高，然後信義房屋那個指數的年增率也往上攀升，就相關的數字看起來就是沒有軟著陸，你的信用管制看起來是失靈了，沒有達到預期的效果，總裁我在這邊要拜託你了，你是不是要想想其他好的辦法，讓資本不要那麼集中。因為你報告過，之所以高房價的原因，是因為這些不動產的貸款，資本過度集中的關係所造成的結果，既然是這樣子，要如何把它降低呢？唯有你啊！還會有誰？"],["楊總裁金龍：委員……"],["郭委員國文：你是總體經濟的操盤手啊！怎麼會怪青安貸，你要想辦法啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：委員，不用把那個……"],["郭委員國文：以前我們採信用管制，從生產方，就是建商你也做信用管制；從消費方，第二個房屋你也規定貸款成數七成，第三個房屋你也規定貸款成數四成，這些你都做了，你還有沒有什麼遺漏的地方？"],["楊總裁金龍：報告委員，房地產要健全發展，如果要單獨靠中央銀行的話……"],["郭委員國文：不是單獨靠你，我是說總體經濟啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：那麼國發會就不會來一個健全房屋方案，你看看健全房屋方案參與的部會，中央銀行只是其中之一而已。"],["郭委員國文：總裁，你不要扯到那邊去啦！作為一個總體經濟的操盤手而言，你還有沒有其他方式？譬如是不是還有其他利率？我舉個簡單例子，過去除了貸款成數的限制，不要讓他過度之外，利率也是一個變數，這有沒有可能？條件有沒有再調整的空間？"],["楊總裁金龍：跟委員報告，利率基本上是對付通膨的……"],["郭委員國文：不是，我講的不是整體利率，是特定利率，也就是交易方的利率，這也是特定對象，譬如買方。"],["楊總裁金龍：問題就在這裡。第一，利率自由化，這是銀行要跟客戶charge利率……"],["郭委員國文：如果利率自由化，利率不能作為政策工具的話，那你還有其他政策工具嗎，總裁？"],["楊總裁金龍：新加坡在對付房價就兩個工具而已，第一個工具就是稅；第二個工具是選擇性信用管制，就是這兩個！"],["郭委員國文：對！就是這兩個工具，所以如果稅不在你手上，那你就是要信用管制，看還有沒有其他空間……"],["楊總裁金龍：我們還會檢討……"],["郭委員國文：還會檢討？所以你還有武器沒有端出來？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們還會檢討。"],["郭委員國文：還有？還有其他的對策嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們還會滾動檢討。"],["郭委員國文：還有？最近會不會考慮推出？"],["楊總裁金龍：3月份我們……"],["郭委員國文：會討論？有沒有新的對策，做新的信用管制？不然資金過度集中，利率居高不下，甚至逐漸攀升，越管制結果還高升到37.4%！"],["楊總裁金龍：跟委員報告，我們理監事會每次都會就利率與選擇性信用管制討論……"],["郭委員國文：對，討論很久，我知道這兩個是關鍵，雙率是關鍵。拉回來說，我再提供一個數字讓您參考。最近 ETF很夯，從幾千億跑到兩兆！兩兆看起來好像很多，但嚴格來說，就總體存款而言，兩兆算什麼？臺幣存款從2020年開始，每年增加三兆，到現在已經48.57兆了，所以這兩兆算什麼？根本沒什麼啊！可是如果讓這兩兆跑到房地產去，那不是更嚴重嗎？總裁，你認同我的看法嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想是這樣子，股市跟房地產也有關聯……"],["郭委員國文：對，有一些連動性，至於是正連動或負連動就很難講了。"],["楊總裁金龍：股市如果上漲，對房地產也有支撐力道……"],["郭委員國文：沒有，我最後再問總裁一件事情，請你也稍微研究一下。因為國際 QE、中美衝突、臺商回流、資金跑回來，以致現在減少對外投資意願，讓資金過度泛濫，游資過多！到底游資有多少，我私底下再請教您那個規模是多少。你測試出來後到底掌握到多少，以至於說游資有多到推高房市，推高股市，推高CPI，推高物價的可能性？在這種情況底下，我要請總裁去思考一下，有沒有除了升息以外的政策工具，可以讓游資減少，讓房市、股市，包括物價在內，不會因為游資過多，讓臺灣因國際QE的關係受到影響而堆高？"],["楊總裁金龍：這個問題我們中央銀行，還有理監事會都會很嚴肅地去討論它。"],["郭委員國文：嚴肅討論？所以一切等待3月份中央銀行理監事會的結論，是不是？"],["楊總裁金龍：這當然只是其中之一而已，是不是？不過理監事會是我們這一次比較接近的一個重點。"],["郭委員國文：有關理監事會的重點，你可以就這部分提供一份書面給本席嗎？我好好來拜讀一下，看你要如何透過除了升息以外的手段，讓資金不要過多，其他如投資標等等都可以。"],["楊總裁金龍：可以。"],["郭委員國文：可以？"],["楊總裁金龍：可以。"],["郭委員國文：一個月，好不好？"],["楊總裁金龍：好，可以。"],["郭委員國文：謝謝總裁，感謝。"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝。"],["主席：下一位質詢請李彥秀李委員。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":192,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-20-3","speakers":["羅明才","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","李彥秀","賴惠員","王鴻薇","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","黃珊珊","王世堅","李坤城","陳玉珍","顏寬恒","謝衣鳯","邱志偉","洪孟楷","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":129,"meetingDate":["2024-03-14"],"gazette_id":"1131301","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1131301_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質\n詢","agenda_id":"1131301_00003"}},"transcript":{"pyannote":[{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":0.03096875,"end":1.22909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":1.9715937500000003,"end":2.6634687500000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":9.177218750000002,"end":9.801593750000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":10.25721875,"end":11.539718750000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":11.910968750000002,"end":23.48721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":20.43284375,"end":20.871593750000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":23.38596875,"end":23.41971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":23.48721875,"end":23.65596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":23.65596875,"end":23.89221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":24.28034375,"end":24.297218750000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":24.297218750000003,"end":36.53159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":30.74346875,"end":31.11471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":31.11471875,"end":31.13159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":36.73409375,"end":37.13909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":37.05471875,"end":39.13034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":39.13034375,"end":39.23159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":39.23159375,"end":43.06221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":39.31596875,"end":39.48471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":40.69971875,"end":41.307218750000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":43.01159375,"end":43.53471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":43.517843750000004,"end":46.43721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":47.02784375,"end":50.09909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":50.267843750000004,"end":57.945968750000006},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":58.064093750000005,"end":58.485968750000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":59.24534375,"end":67.21034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":67.29471875,"end":67.68284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":67.63221875,"end":70.12971875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":70.24784375,"end":70.46721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":70.46721875,"end":73.72409375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":70.50096875,"end":70.53471875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":73.75784375,"end":76.50846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":76.50846875,"end":76.77846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":76.77846875,"end":82.85346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":76.79534375,"end":76.81221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":83.57909375,"end":84.79409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":84.97971875,"end":85.40159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":85.40159375,"end":86.00909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":86.61659375,"end":102.09096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":99.74534375,"end":100.09971875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":102.31034375,"end":102.61409375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":103.33971875,"end":103.91346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":103.96409375,"end":103.98096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":103.98096875,"end":104.30159375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":104.87534375000001,"end":106.10721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":106.10721875,"end":106.14096875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":106.14096875000001,"end":106.22534375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":106.98471875000001,"end":136.90409375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":113.56596875000001,"end":113.58284375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":113.58284375000001,"end":114.12284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":114.12284375,"end":114.13971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":114.46034375,"end":114.49409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":114.49409375,"end":114.52784375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":115.42221875000001,"end":118.07159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":119.35409375,"end":119.42159375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":125.73284375000001,"end":125.96909375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":125.96909375000001,"end":126.62721875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":138.57471875000002,"end":141.37596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":140.73471875,"end":141.34221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":141.37596875,"end":141.49409375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":141.49409375000002,"end":146.21909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":142.13534375,"end":143.65409375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":144.86909375000002,"end":149.12159375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":148.75034375,"end":150.47159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":150.75846875000002,"end":150.82596875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":150.82596875000002,"end":150.96096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":150.96096875,"end":152.71596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":154.09971875000002,"end":156.59721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":155.92221875,"end":162.04784375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":159.07784375,"end":159.63471875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":160.73159375,"end":163.56659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":162.62159375000002,"end":162.94221875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":163.14471875,"end":170.82284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":171.27846875,"end":172.30784375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":173.05034375000002,"end":175.09221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":175.29471875000002,"end":177.04971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":177.42096875000001,"end":178.38284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":179.07471875000002,"end":185.04846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":184.28909375,"end":187.25909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":185.80784375000002,"end":199.12221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":187.32659375,"end":187.71471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":199.29096875000002,"end":202.96971875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":202.96971875000003,"end":203.17221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":203.17221875,"end":203.20596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":203.20596875,"end":203.29034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":203.29034375,"end":203.52659375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":203.86409375000002,"end":213.14534375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":213.66846875000002,"end":217.16159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":217.16159375,"end":217.48221875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":217.48221875000002,"end":217.54971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":217.54971875,"end":217.56659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":217.56659375,"end":217.61721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":217.61721875,"end":222.57846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":219.72659375,"end":230.12159375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":224.19846875000002,"end":235.69034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":236.38221875000002,"end":255.50159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":238.49159375000002,"end":240.95534375000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":241.15784375,"end":241.78221875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":242.52471875,"end":242.94659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":249.17346875,"end":249.20721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":249.20721875,"end":249.51096875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":251.01284375000003,"end":251.28284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":251.58659375000002,"end":251.78909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":255.50159375,"end":255.58596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":255.88971875000001,"end":261.42471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":260.66534375000003,"end":261.27284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":261.42471875,"end":261.67784375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":261.67784375,"end":266.72346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":261.74534375,"end":261.88034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":261.94784375,"end":261.96471875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":263.12909375000004,"end":263.97284375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":265.15409375,"end":277.99596875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":277.59096875,"end":287.81721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":278.43471875,"end":279.58221875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":282.01221875000005,"end":283.59846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":283.59846875,"end":283.63221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":283.63221875,"end":283.80096875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":283.80096875000004,"end":283.85159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":283.85159375,"end":283.86846875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":283.86846875000003,"end":283.91909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":287.61471875,"end":287.96909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":287.86784375,"end":289.72409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":289.58909375,"end":289.92659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":289.75784375,"end":307.72971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":299.27534375000005,"end":299.57909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":300.96284375000005,"end":301.50284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":307.79721875,"end":308.18534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":308.30346875000004,"end":324.68909375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":325.24596875000003,"end":327.62534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":327.62534375,"end":327.89534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":327.89534375,"end":333.91971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":327.91221875,"end":327.94596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":334.42596875000004,"end":355.89096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":355.30034375,"end":355.87409375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":355.89096875,"end":359.38409375000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":358.82721875000004,"end":364.02471875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":359.60346875000005,"end":360.54846875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":364.02471875000003,"end":369.77909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":369.32346875,"end":376.30971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":372.14159375,"end":374.11596875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":375.14534375000005,"end":380.96721875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":380.54534375000003,"end":387.02534375000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":387.32909375,"end":387.70034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":388.88159375000004,"end":392.72909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":391.48034375000003,"end":392.03721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":393.94409375000004,"end":430.56284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":397.15034375000005,"end":397.47096875000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":430.64721875000004,"end":431.96346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":430.98471875,"end":433.87034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":432.84096875,"end":435.05159375000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":435.65909375,"end":438.57846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":438.91596875000005,"end":444.80534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":443.18534375,"end":446.98221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":447.40409375,"end":454.71096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":454.87971875000005,"end":456.34784375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":454.96409375,"end":476.41221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":467.95784375000005,"end":470.53971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":476.95221875000004,"end":483.92159375000006},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":483.70221875000004,"end":483.93846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":483.93846875,"end":486.41909375000006},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":483.97221875,"end":502.93971875000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":486.84096875000006,"end":487.54971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":492.56159375000004,"end":493.30409375000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":494.16471875,"end":494.53596875000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":503.17596875000004,"end":510.80346875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":503.36159375000005,"end":503.53034375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":504.96471875000003,"end":507.41159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":511.07346875,"end":515.5790937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":513.6384687500001,"end":514.0772187499999},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":514.3640937499999,"end":516.4397187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":517.09784375,"end":525.48471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":520.28721875,"end":523.3415937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":523.96596875,"end":541.3134687500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":526.8347187500001,"end":527.18909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":534.52971875,"end":534.63096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":539.0859687500001,"end":544.89096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":541.3472187500001,"end":541.38096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":544.80659375,"end":556.46721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":556.29846875,"end":562.64346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":561.79971875,"end":563.60534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":563.60534375,"end":563.6728437500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":563.6728437500001,"end":566.03534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":563.6897187500001,"end":565.88346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":566.03534375,"end":566.4909687500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":566.4909687500001,"end":578.82659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":567.9253437500001,"end":568.3472187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":570.20346875,"end":570.2709687500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":570.2709687500001,"end":571.63784375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":571.63784375,"end":571.7222187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":572.2453437500001,"end":572.36346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":572.36346875,"end":573.1228437500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":573.1397187499999,"end":573.4097187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":573.4097187500001,"end":573.5447187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":578.82659375,"end":578.9109687499999},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":578.9109687499999,"end":579.0122187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":578.96159375,"end":582.0834687500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":581.07096875,"end":581.9990937499999},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":582.6909687500001,"end":590.8584687499999},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":582.9778437500001,"end":584.88471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":589.1372187500001,"end":589.9809687500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":590.8584687499999,"end":595.83659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":591.06096875,"end":591.6684687500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":596.4440937500001,"end":600.20721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":600.35909375,"end":620.69346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":608.62784375,"end":608.6615937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":621.3178437500001,"end":631.4597187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":631.15596875,"end":631.29096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":631.8815937500001,"end":633.0290937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":633.4172187500001,"end":639.8972187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":640.1672187500001,"end":644.5547187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":640.94346875,"end":652.18221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":652.18221875,"end":670.93034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":670.8459687500001,"end":670.8628437500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":670.8628437500001,"end":671.1328437500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":671.08221875,"end":693.86346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":694.11659375,"end":697.1540937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":697.81221875,"end":705.8615937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":705.8615937500001,"end":711.0928437500002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":711.44721875,"end":720.0365937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":720.00284375,"end":724.89659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":725.48721875,"end":726.58409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":727.32659375,"end":731.56221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":732.1697187500001,"end":734.04284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":733.89096875,"end":734.92034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":734.92034375,"end":735.30846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":734.93721875,"end":737.89034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":737.02971875,"end":737.3672187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":738.66659375,"end":740.11784375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":740.11784375,"end":742.9697187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":741.3159687500001,"end":742.19346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":743.0203437499999,"end":743.03721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":743.03721875,"end":743.74596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":748.1672187500001,"end":750.6984687500001}],"whisperx":[{"start":0.089,"end":0.752,"text":"有請陽總裁陽總裁"},{"start":10.598,"end":36.226,"text":"總裁好 拜讀你今天的這個業務報告內容當中預估今年的這個CPI的部分是1.89 GDP是3.12對不對可是我每次這三年觀察你的這個預估值包括CPA也好或GDP也好有一個特性也就是CPI的部分通膨的這個指數的部分都是在2以下"},{"start":37.106,"end":49.238,"text":"那GDP的時候都是2以上我發現你都有這個特性因為2是一個很重要的門檻可是到我們回顧這兩年2022年你預估的CPI是多少2021年的時候是預估1.59但事實上2020就變2.95"},{"start":60.881,"end":84.567,"text":"阿2022的時候預估的這個GDP多少?你是預估4.03但實質上呢是2.45到去年2023CPI彭彭的部分你去預估1.88實質上呢是2.5然後呢2023的部分呢GDP的部分呢你是預估2.53實質上是1.2特別是去年啦"},{"start":87.188,"end":101.99,"text":"該2以下的他超過2GDP變成2.5該2以上的GDP他變成2以下變1.2所以去年就有人說是不是可能會有停滯性通膨當然是沒有那麼嚴重啦那接近啦有那種跡象啦"},{"start":103.513,"end":126.975,"text":"總裁,你今天的預估會準嗎?我跟委員報告,事實上就是說...你前兩年都漏氣耶對,沒有錯而且你還有動用升息耶我要誠實要跟委員報告就確實就是說央行這幾年的一個預測都沒有很準確都不準啊對不對都不準"},{"start":127.415,"end":152.544,"text":"但是呢我當然啦這個也許我這樣子講委員會認為就是說我推卸責任事實上呢全球每一個機構的預測都沒有準那也因為你有比較過全國每一個機構都沒有準那你是比較不準的不準的那一個還是比較接近準的那一個也許我們會比較準我們是不準但是比較準"},{"start":154.144,"end":172.083,"text":"有這麼接近不準的準嗎?對對對對因為這個是我跟委員報告喔預測齁你不要台灣人民不會去看其他機構啦只會看你而已啦當然當然當然但是呢就是說我要跟委員報告就是說這幾年為什麼就是說大家都不準你要想想看喔"},{"start":173.384,"end":184.507,"text":"從中美貿易衝突之後過來就是COVID-19二屋戰爭那美國的battle neck supply chain的battle neck我跟委員報告那個時候呢"},{"start":191.289,"end":195.792,"text":"總裁不好意思我打斷你啊因為那個是真的大問題我沒有時間聽你說但我很願意聽啊但質詢時間非常寶貴我現在就問你嘛明年你有沒有把握嗎"},{"start":214.077,"end":221.084,"text":"你剛剛講的那個已經發生好幾年了喔現在沒有新的國際情勢變數了喔中美衝突已經衝突好幾年了喔國際戰爭也是在持續喔所以說在這種情況底下變數沒有變的情況底下你保證這一個3.12跟1.89可以達成嗎"},{"start":237.189,"end":247.136,"text":"我想這個3.12比較容易啦比較容易我在想這個3.12是比較容易那然後呢這個CPI的這個1.89就是說2024年的1.89我們的1.89沒有放這個電價"},{"start":256.102,"end":262.204,"text":"沒有放電價所以說1.89的挑戰性比較高變數比較大所以1.89比較沒有把握GDP3.12的部分比較有把握但是委員我要跟委員報告就是說這個CPI呢我們這下3個月份的理監事會會很謹慎的去討論它真的要很謹慎我知道但是你都不會講到底會不會調這我不用問"},{"start":283.849,"end":307.247,"text":"接下來我問了說你不只這件失準欸總裁我今天不是來給你繞開的你看之前你也是說2023年上半年房市會開始軟著陸亮先駕行我先看最近的一些報紙標題連中金院喔他對房市啊說2024上半年景氣的表現會看好"},{"start":308.408,"end":324.21,"text":"一般的民間的一些地產王啊一些媒體啊都說哦以後會開綠燈然後呢今天呢我拜讀你的報告呢你說哦就像我之前一直問你為什麼資本啊一直集中在房地產結果你今天的報告居然寫說哦是因為清安貸"},{"start":325.445,"end":355.047,"text":"總裁千萬不要這樣寫啦清安貸是政府一個體貼青年給他居住正義的一個政策工具結果清安貸所有的餘款夯噗噗噗加起來我算了一下7929億的餘額也不過占所有目前啊這不動產的占比13.7兆當中的0.57%啊你報告當中你把推給清安貸這對這青年對政策都是一種否定啊"},{"start":355.287,"end":356.268,"text":"我來讓你看一下那個數字"},{"start":383.449,"end":389.773,"text":"不動場的販款的比例真的往上攀升下一頁目前高達37.4%下一頁"},{"start":394.011,"end":394.231,"text":"總裁我這邊要"},{"start":413.57,"end":433.115,"text":"拜託你了你是不是想想其他好的辦法讓資本不要那麼集中因為你報告過說之所以高房價的原因是因為這些不動產的貸款資本過度於集中的關係所造成的結果那既然是這樣子要如何把它降低唯有你啊還有誰因為總體經濟的操盤手啊怎麼怪清安單你要想辦法啊"},{"start":438.917,"end":443.862,"text":"委員 啊 委員 不用齁 就說把那個什麼 把那個 如果說 報委員 如果說"},{"start":458.937,"end":476.123,"text":"我房地產這個要要健全發展如果說要要單獨靠中央銀行的話呢那麼國發會就是不會就是說是來一個健全房屋方案"},{"start":477.483,"end":502.691,"text":"總裁不要扯到那邊去啦你作為一個總體經濟的一個操盤手來說你還沒有其他的方式嘛譬如講是不是還有其他的利率我舉一個簡單的例子過去我們貸款陳述之外的限制之外不要讓它過渡其中之外利率也是一個變數有沒有可能嘛"},{"start":503.892,"end":506.754,"text":"我要跟委員報告就是說利率基本上是對物通膨的不是我不是說那個"},{"start":517.168,"end":543.582,"text":"不是全體的利率啦是特定的利率就交易方的利率交易方交易方也是特定對象喔交易方譬如買方問題就是在這裡啦第一個利率自由化這個是利率呢銀行要跟要跟那個客戶charge這個利率呢你如果利率自由化利率不能做一個偵測工具的話那你還有其他偵測工具嗎"},{"start":544.682,"end":564.776,"text":"總裁所以呢你看看在新加坡呢他在兌付房價的話他就兩個工具而已第一個工具呢就是稅第二個工具選擇性信用管制他就是這兩個對這兩個工具那你信用你如果這樣子稅不在你的手頭上你就是要信用管制的部分看還有沒有其他工具我們還會檢討還會檢討還會檢討所以說你還有武器還沒有端出來我們還會檢討還有還有布我們滾動你還有其他的布束嗎我們還會滾動還有"},{"start":573.562,"end":590.151,"text":"還有那最近會不會考慮推出來我們我們3月份呢我們會會討論有沒有新的部署做新的新的新的管制出來不然問你資本基金用過度集中應該不下逐漸攀升啊你月管制的結果還高升到37.4%啊我跟委員報告吼我們的理監事會呢"},{"start":596.714,"end":620.205,"text":"每次都會舊利率跟選擇性信用管制討論對討論很久我知道這兩個是關鍵雙率是關鍵拉回來說我再就一個數字再讓您參考最近一貼符很夯嘛幾千億跑到兩兆兩兆看起來好像很多但兩兆嚴格來說就總體的這個存款來說算什麼台幣的存款從2020開始每年增加三兆欸"},{"start":621.425,"end":639.267,"text":"增加到現在已經48.57兆了這兩兆算什麼根本沒什麼可是你如果讓這兩兆跑到房地產去那不是更嚴重嗎總裁你認同我的看法嗎我想是這樣子就是說那個股市跟房地產也有關聯"},{"start":641.089,"end":656.666,"text":"對 有些連動性啦但是正聯動負聯動也很難講因為你的股市如果是上漲的時候呢他對這個房地產他也有支撐的力道沒有總裁我最後再一件事情請你也上位研究一下"},{"start":657.687,"end":683.717,"text":"我認為就是因為啊國際的QE的狀況中美衝突台商回流資金跑回來他現在減少對外投資的意願以至於資金現在過度氾濫油資過多到底油資有多少我私底下再請教您多少啦那個規模啊有多少成長讓你有測試出來掌握以至於說油資再多推高了房市推高了股市推高了CPI推高了物價的可能性那在這種情況的現狀底下我要請總裁去思考一下"},{"start":684.717,"end":710.885,"text":"還有沒有除了升息以外的政策工具可以讓這個油資減少而讓房市股市還有包括物價不用因為油資過多還國際的QE的關係而受到影響而堆高委員這個問題我們中央銀行還有理監事會都會去很嚴肅的去討論他嚴肅討論所以我一切等待3月份的這個中央會議員和理事會的結論是不是"},{"start":712.063,"end":726.335,"text":"當然啦 這個是其中之一而已啦 是不是當然啦就是說禮監事會就是說我們這一次很比較接近的一個重點禮監事的重點那你這份的部分可以一份書面給本席嘛我好好來拜讀一下"},{"start":727.486,"end":728.246,"text":"下一位質詢請李彥秀李委員"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}