{"error":false,"id":["149865"],"data":{"IVOD_ID":149865,"IVOD_URL":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/149865","日期":"2024-03-14","會議資料":{"會議代碼":"委員會-11-1-20-3","會議代碼:str":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議","屆":11,"會期":1,"會次":3,"臨時會會次":null,"種類":"委員會","委員會代碼":[20],"委員會代碼:str":["財政委員會"],"標題":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議"},"影片種類":"Clip","開始時間":"2024-03-14T10:28:02+08:00","結束時間":"2024-03-14T10:38:51+08:00","影片長度":"00:10:49","支援功能":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/38af2da376d2313559e446cc9cc215c99acded3ffe6c80faf8ba9b0039caa7a6005dafe6a1b373055ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"王鴻薇","委員發言時間":"10:28:02 - 10:38:51","會議時間":"2024-03-14T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質詢。\n【3月13日及14日二天一次會】）","gazette":{"lineno":517,"blocks":[["王委員鴻薇：（10時28分）謝謝主席。我請楊總裁。"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：王委員早。"],["王委員鴻薇：總裁好。在你們的報告裡面，特別對通膨率，提到預估今年臺灣的通膨率可望回降到2%左右。總裁，這個比例是不是估計得過於保守？"],["楊總裁金龍：2%「左右」，這個就是因為我們還是沒有把電價放進去。"],["王委員鴻薇：並沒有把電價放上去，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["王委員鴻薇：好，那麼事實上國發會龔主委已經對外宣稱，我想這是他們的模型跑出來的，他說如果電價上漲10%，那麼對於CPI的影響是0.2%到0.3%，他當然是說間接影響。這個是國發會的模型，我知道中央銀行也有自己的模型在跑，我相信央行一定也在跑，如果台電要調10%，因為現在傳出來是10%到15%，但是看它能夠獲得多少的撥補，如果是10%到15%，那麼我們所跑出來的模型，CPI受到的影響大概是幾個百分點？"],["楊總裁金龍：基本上模型大概是大家都差不多，我們的模型也……"],["王委員鴻薇：所以您同意……"],["楊總裁金龍：我們有兩個，一個是直接影響，一個是間接影響，在直接影響方面，我們的估計大概也會落在0.12%，這是直接影響。"],["王委員鴻薇：直接？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，直接是0.12%。但是報告委員，如果4月開始調漲的時候，0.12%也不見得就是全部是在今年實現。"],["王委員鴻薇：對！可能會延續到後面……"],["楊總裁金龍：因為今年就只有8個月而已。"],["王委員鴻薇：是。"],["楊總裁金龍：後年就是4個月，所以0.12%不見得全部是在這個……"],["王委員鴻薇：好，如果是間接的話，你們算出來是多少？"],["楊總裁金龍：間接的話，我們大概差不多也是在0.24%左右。"],["王委員鴻薇：0.24%？"],["楊總裁金龍：對。也一樣的，0.24%也是一樣要8個月，還有後面的狀況，但這個只是模型跑出來的一個數據，中間還要考慮到預期的心理……"],["王委員鴻薇：對，因為現在確實有一些預期的心理。"],["楊總裁金龍：那預期的心理就不容易去捕捉它。"],["王委員鴻薇：如果預期心理出來，甚至有哄抬物價出來，影響的層面會更大。"],["楊總裁金龍：對！所以我們也必須要考慮這些。"],["王委員鴻薇：是，所以總裁應該也會同意，因為這次電價上漲的幅度比過去幾年都大，而且甚至這次要漲到民生用電，所以在今年有關於通貨膨脹的壓力，事實上這個壓力是很大的，你應該同意吧？"],["楊總裁金龍：委員，我剛剛也有提到這一點，今年雖然比去年的2.49%，我們說可能是上修，但我們認為它還是下來的，但是……"],["王委員鴻薇：你這樣用下降的手勢，並不代表現在大家的物價下降，其實是去年的基期比較高，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：是啦！對，沒有錯。"],["王委員鴻薇：你同意嘛。"],["楊總裁金龍：基期也是一部分，但是我要跟委員報告的，因為我們2022年、2021年，從1.97%，過來是2.95%，過來是2.49%，今年又超過2%，我們必須要小心，如果通膨是那麼長的時間，中央銀行對於通膨預期的心理我們要非常注意。"],["王委員鴻薇：就會擔心，等於長時間都是在我們的通貨膨脹線2%上上下下，一直維持這個水準，所以中央銀行應該會非常非常的在意，因為穩定物價就是央行的天條嘛。"],["楊總裁金龍：是！"],["王委員鴻薇：所以總裁，我們大概上半年看不到降息的可能了，你們因為電價的不確定因素，會不會引起預期心理、會不會引起哄抬物價？所以今年雖然美國一直在期待Fed可能降息，但是現在它可能降息的時間也會往後延，在今年上半年，總裁認為我們有沒有降息的空間？"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有，我在想我們在6月以前沒有降息的空間。"],["王委員鴻薇：那下半年呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：第一個對於通膨預期的心理我們必須要注意，而下半年，我跟委員報告，美國是通膨率8%、9%，然後慢慢下來的，基本上我們的通膨是稍微上升，然後再下來，對不對？"],["王委員鴻薇：是。"],["楊總裁金龍：我們的情況是跟他們不一樣，所以我們的貨幣政策跟他們完全是不一樣的，我們是慢慢地上去，所以慢慢上去也可能不會就像他們一樣，上去了以後下來的速度比較快，而我們是逐步的，所以……"],["王委員鴻薇：總裁，我可不可以這樣講，以今年的國際情勢來說，美國有降息的可能，今年也可能看得到降息，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：對！有可能。"],["王委員鴻薇：但是今年上半年，臺灣因為面臨到電價上漲的壓力，所以上半年央行現在沒有降息的打算，但是按照國際情勢，我們也沒有升息的可能，可以這樣講嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：在下個禮拜四我們會嚴肅地討論這個問題。"],["王委員鴻薇：所以會不會升息，你不敢講？"],["楊總裁金龍：我也不敢講。"],["王委員鴻薇：因為我們現在的變數太多？"],["楊總裁金龍：對！沒有錯。"],["王委員鴻薇：好，瞭解。總裁，另外跟您請教，這幾天其實媒體有報導，你們的報告裡面也有特別提到，就是中央銀行目前在進行數位貨幣（CBDC）的研究，我所瞭解你們現在是委託台經院嘛？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["王委員鴻薇：包含對一些銀行的詢問及調查，銀行應該是比較持負面跟反對的意見，是不是？因為如果發行這個數位貨幣，銀行可能會怕自己的金融仲介地位因此而被邊緣化，是不是？"],["楊總裁金龍：對啦！這個……"],["王委員鴻薇：我現在所瞭解的是，因為這邊提到你去對公眾、產業界、學界，我跟你講公眾是不懂的啦！我都要花一點時間，我叫人家幫我弄了一份報告出來，我才比較瞭解數位貨幣你們的架構是什麼，所以現在你隨便到路上問一個人，他真的會不知道什麼叫CBDC、什麼叫數位貨幣，他還以為是虛擬貨幣。現在司法委員會在講反詐，我對虛擬貨幣一直變成詐騙、洗錢的方式，我是很有意見的，但是它不是虛擬貨幣，所以我們現在在研究數位貨幣的發展，您覺得有可能跟有些國家準備在2030年之前開始上路、發行數位貨幣，我們的時間有可能可以趕得上2030年嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：這個timetable我不太敢跟委員保證，因為我們的第一個階段，譬如說我們要訪問，還要再開公聽會、論壇，所花的時間可能也會滿長的，而且你看看像美國，我剛剛也提到了，美國Fed的主席Powell最近也談到了，美國如果要發展CBDC，他要非常小心。"],["王委員鴻薇：要非常小心。"],["楊總裁金龍：而且他很重視的就是它的隱私權，因為人民使用CBDC的時候，使用貨幣的隱私權可能中央銀行都會知道，銀行也可能都會知道，他一直覺得除非上面……"],["王委員鴻薇：這我還不曉得。所以如果發行CBDC的話，任何一個個人也好，當然像大戶或者是企業界在使用數位貨幣跟銀行之間的往來，中央銀行都可以完全掌握，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：所以這個就是你的設計，也就是你要……"],["王委員鴻薇：我們是朝這個方向設計嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：不會，所以這個設計就必須要在某一個範圍之內大概不曉得，但是在某一個範圍的時候，可能這些資訊都要揭露、都要讓上面知道。"],["王委員鴻薇：還是要揭露？"],["楊總裁金龍：還是要，不是所謂的揭露，就是要讓中央銀行知道。"],["王委員鴻薇：因為我現在知道銀行界並沒有那麼贊成，如果這樣講起來，我覺得企業界或者是那種金融大戶，我看他們也不會那麼贊成，對不對？但是可以完全掌握洗錢的狀況，是不是？"],["楊總裁金龍：不過，我跟委員報告，E-Commerce就是E化的商業、E化的經濟，E化的經濟方向恐怕就是……"],["王委員鴻薇：勢在必行。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，可能就是勢在必行，可能是eMoney。"],["王委員鴻薇：所以你們現在開始研究，但是會非常謹慎，當然還是會牽涉到一些修法。"],["楊總裁金龍：對！我們會非常小心，我們不急。"],["王委員鴻薇：不急？所以沒有時間表，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，沒有時間表。"],["王委員鴻薇：好，謝謝總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝。"],["主席：現場有伍麗華委員，因為趕時間喔，我們是不是徵詢他，讓他先質詢，好不好？等伍委員質詢完，我們再休息5分鐘。","好，謝謝。請伍委員發言。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":192,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-20-3","speakers":["羅明才","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","李彥秀","賴惠員","王鴻薇","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","黃珊珊","王世堅","李坤城","陳玉珍","顏寬恒","謝衣鳯","邱志偉","洪孟楷","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":129,"meetingDate":["2024-03-14"],"gazette_id":"1131301","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1131301_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質\n詢","agenda_id":"1131301_00003"}},"transcript":{"pyannote":[{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":0.90846875,"end":3.9290937500000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":4.620968749999999,"end":5.56596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":12.602843750000002,"end":12.872843750000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":13.04159375,"end":13.63221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":13.902218750000003,"end":14.560343750000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":14.67846875,"end":14.99909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":15.218468750000003,"end":20.43284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":20.43284375,"end":20.70284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":20.70284375,"end":26.676593750000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":26.676593750000002,"end":26.94659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":26.94659375,"end":26.96346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":26.96346875,"end":26.997218750000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":27.402218750000003,"end":30.11909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":30.33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9%然後慢慢下來的那我們的基本上呢我們的通膨是稍微這樣然後再下來對不對我們情況是跟他不一樣所以我們的貨幣政策跟他完全是不一樣的我們呢是慢慢的上去的所以慢慢上去的話呢也可能就是說不會就像他們就是說上去了以後下來的速度比較快"},{"start":346.562,"end":374.042,"text":"那中央銀行的把我們是逐步的我們是逐步的所以呢總裁我可不可以這樣講因為今年在國際情勢來說的話美國有降息的可能今年也可能看得到降息對不對那但是呢今年上半年臺灣面臨到電價上漲的壓力所以上半年央行現在沒有降息的打算但是按照國際情勢我們也沒有升息的可能"},{"start":374.462,"end":374.862,"text":"總裁另外跟您請教這幾天其實媒體有報導你們的那個"},{"start":398.369,"end":422.44,"text":"這個報告裡面有特別提到就是中央銀行現在呢在進行數位貨幣的一個研究CBDC我所瞭解你們現在是委託台金院嗎?包含對一些銀行的詢問嗎?對銀行的一個調查銀行應該是比較持負面跟反對的意見吧?"},{"start":423.519,"end":426.861,"text":"是不是因為看起來因為如果發行這個數位貨幣"},{"start":454.44,"end":456.042,"text":"我對虛擬貨幣一直變成詐騙洗錢我是很有意見但是它不是虛擬貨幣所以"},{"start":473.584,"end":491.162,"text":"我們現在在研究數位貨幣的一個發展您覺得有可能跟有些國家準備在2030年之前開始來上路發行數位貨幣我們的時間有可能可以趕得上2030年嗎"},{"start":493.247,"end":521.784,"text":"我這個timetable我不大敢跟委員保證了因為這個我們第一個階段譬如說我們這個我們在訪問我們還要在公聽會我們還要在論壇這些首發的時間可能也會蠻長的而且你看看像美國我剛剛也提到美國這個Fed的主席Power他最近也談到了美國如果要發展這個CPTC他要非常小心"},{"start":522.384,"end":549.665,"text":"而且呢他很重視的就是說他的隱私權就人民因為你用CBDC的時候呢那這個呢你的你使用貨幣的這個隱私權呢可能中央銀行都會知道銀行也可能會都會知道那這個呢他一直覺得就是說除非除非就是說上面所以這我還會想所以如果發行CBDC的話"},{"start":550.285,"end":566.102,"text":"任何一個個人也好當然是大戶啦大戶或者是企業界他在使用數位貨幣跟銀行之間的話中央銀行都可以完全掌握所以這個就是說你的設計也就是說你要我們是朝這個方向設計嗎對不是不會"},{"start":568.164,"end":587.796,"text":"我所以這個設計就必須要知道就是說在某一個範圍之內的話大概就不曉得但是在某一個範圍的時候可能你這些資訊都要揭露都要讓上面知道還是要揭露還是不是所謂的揭露就是說要讓中央銀行知道"},{"start":588.995,"end":604.234,"text":"所以我覺得這個當你們對銀行界並沒有那麼贊成如果這樣講起來我覺得企業界或者是那種金融大戶我看他們也不會那麼贊成博鴻報告委員博鴻報告委員我跟您報告"},{"start":608.479,"end":629.37,"text":"e-commercee-commercee-commercee-commercee-commercee-commercee-commercee-commercee-commercee-commercee-commerce"},{"start":642.384,"end":647.638,"text":"現場有武力華委員齁那因為趕時間齁我們就徵詢他讓他先質詢好不好"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}