{"error":false,"id":["149876"],"data":{"IVOD_ID":149876,"IVOD_URL":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/149876","日期":"2024-03-14","會議資料":{"會議代碼":"委員會-11-1-20-3","會議代碼:str":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議","屆":11,"會期":1,"會次":3,"臨時會會次":null,"種類":"委員會","委員會代碼":[20],"委員會代碼:str":["財政委員會"],"標題":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議"},"影片種類":"Clip","開始時間":"2024-03-14T10:57:58+08:00","結束時間":"2024-03-14T11:08:26+08:00","影片長度":"00:10:28","支援功能":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/38af2da376d231352f4f71517bd345019acded3ffe6c80faf8ba9b0039caa7a6a711fa33d5d0e6b05ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"黃珊珊","委員發言時間":"10:57:58 - 11:08:26","會議時間":"2024-03-14T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質詢。\n【3月13日及14日二天一次會】）","gazette":{"lineno":650,"blocks":[["黃委員珊珊：（10時58分）謝謝召委。請楊總裁。"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：黃委員早。"],["黃委員珊珊：總裁好。大家都非常關心臺灣物價，你們去年年底估計CPI大概是1.89%，後來下修了。但主計總處剛剛公布2月份的物價指數還是高達3.08%，在扣掉春節問題後，您對今年的CPI有什麼看法？還跟原來一樣嗎？或者要調整原來的看法？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想我們會再調整，會再調整。"],["黃委員珊珊：看起來應該會比原來的預期高？"],["楊總裁金龍：可能會高。"],["黃委員珊珊：因為4月份電價要調漲？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["黃委員珊珊：也看到很多醫療費用、掛號費的調漲？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["黃委員珊珊：這些狀況對於超過2%的通膨警戒線……幾乎應該會超過吧？你認為會不會超過2%？"],["楊總裁金龍：如果照直覺來看的話，應該會。"],["黃委員珊珊：總裁曾經表示，如果明年的通膨率在2%以下還可以接受。但就像剛剛講的可能超過2%，請問央行會有什麼樣的貨幣政策？"],["楊總裁金龍：所以我剛剛也講了，我們會很嚴肅來討論這個議題。"],["黃委員珊珊：看起來不太可能低於2%了！現在電價調漲，接下來要收碳費，加上醫療費用增加，連主計長都說通膨壓力很大。所以在理監事會議中，有沒有可能討論臺灣的寬鬆貨幣政策，即升息的可能性？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，貨幣政策一般也有在講就是，因為它是下來的嘛！下來，它是中長期啦！"],["黃委員珊珊：是。"],["楊總裁金龍：中長期要達到2%以下，這個……"],["黃委員珊珊：所以你要用利率來做調控嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：中長期，那現在，我剛剛也有強調，中央銀行很重視的就是通膨的預期心理。"],["黃委員珊珊：沒錯，所以這也是我們很擔心說實際上民眾的感受，其實才是最真實的。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["黃委員珊珊：重點在於，我想問總裁，就是怎麼樣的物價條件會有怎麼樣的貨幣政策，這才是一個原則性的問題，我們大家可以去預期，接下去的物價狀況，我們會碰到什麼樣的未來？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["黃委員珊珊：你的政策可能的方向。"],["楊總裁金龍：我還是在講，我們會很嚴正地，很謹……"],["黃委員珊珊：很嚴肅？但是還是沒有原則可以告訴我們？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們還是很謹慎地會討論這個議題。"],["黃委員珊珊：但是在你們去年第4季理監事會議裡面，我們看到了，央行附了國內外對於臺灣CPI的預測。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["黃委員珊珊：非常有趣，對於今年的CPI，國內機構認為不會高於2%，國外機構都認為會高於2%。我想問一下總裁，是國內機構跟國外機構誰比較不接地氣，還是我們國內機構都是報喜不報憂？"],["楊總裁金龍：也不是這麼啦！因為國外的……"],["黃委員珊珊：很明顯的差很大。國內跟國外的差很多耶！"],["楊總裁金龍：對，有，是啦！這……"],["黃委員珊珊：幾乎國外全部都超過2%，可是我們自己可以報說我們只有一點多。"],["楊總裁金龍：不過報告委員，按照道理來講，國內機構是比較瞭解國內的情況。"],["黃委員珊珊：但是如果照你這樣說的話，就不會發生我們剛剛講的，明年……剛剛講可能接下去會超過2%，所以國外可能比你還要準。"],["楊總裁金龍：所以也就是，你要看的是每一個機構在什麼時點做的預測，而且你剛剛舉中央銀行的例子來講，在去年12月底的理監事我們也做了預測，但是在3月的時候我們還是會……"],["黃委員珊珊：我沒有什麼意見，我只是認為，可能我們太過於保守的這件事情，也需要去參考國外機構的考慮。"],["楊總裁金龍：這個很難說，很難說……"],["黃委員珊珊：接下來，我們特別注意的就是，我特別在乎的其實是居住正義，房租的指數，租金指數在臺灣居住類的CPI裡面已經連續上漲了31個月，超過2年半，而且已經創了歷史紀錄。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["黃委員珊珊：我們居住正義的實踐，第一個，在央行的立場，也應該是讓房市緩漲做為第一個目標。但是我想問總裁，如果按照這個租金指數的上升狀況，不但沒有緩漲，而且持續上漲，幅度越來越大，我們的居住正義政策有沒有發揮效果？"],["楊總裁金龍：房租，是啦……"],["黃委員珊珊：租金是房價的落後指標。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，委員講的沒有錯，就是房租這個有它的僵固性，而且……"],["黃委員珊珊：央行有很多的工具。"],["楊總裁金龍：而且會讓它要下來的……的那個比較慢。"],["黃委員珊珊：我想問總裁，我們現在的政策工具有沒有辦法讓租金緩漲？至少不要漲得那麼大，而且你有很多的工具，你一直都在用，但是看起來效果沒有很好。尤其是你說過，不要因為打房而升息，但是CPI的壓力變大了……"],["楊總裁金龍：對，CPI……"],["黃委員珊珊：接下來，信用管制也做了很久……"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["黃委員珊珊：可是房市一樣沒有趨緩的現象。"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，中央銀行的目標，沒有房價的這個目標。如果房價上漲，但是金融穩定，依然是穩定的時候，中央銀行還是謹慎的……"],["黃委員珊珊：我同意，但是我的意思是，央行可能要成為一個對於我們……現在你做了很多管制措施，但是我們又通過了平均地權條例，希望能夠平抑房價。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["黃委員珊珊：後來政府為了要選舉而推出了新青安貸款，增加額度，延長年限。有媒體報導，這就是本來平均地權條例的效果還沒出來，打房的效果還沒出來，反手又提出了新青安貸款，反而撐住了房價、撐住了樓地板，所以同時間提出效果相反的房市政策。對於您不斷地在做管制措施，但是我們政府推出的矛盾政策，總裁有什麼看法？"],["楊總裁金龍：基本上我也是一直希望就是……"],["黃委員珊珊：你也是覺得很無奈？"],["楊總裁金龍：我……不……"],["黃委員珊珊：就是你想管，然後他們又在那邊撐著。"],["楊總裁金龍：我也是一直希望，健全房屋方案，這個是整個的行政單位……"],["黃委員珊珊：健全房屋不會只有一個單位。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，不是一個單位。"],["黃委員珊珊：要大家一起來。"],["楊總裁金龍：大家一起來。"],["黃委員珊珊：但是不能你在打房，他在那邊撐房價。"],["楊總裁金龍：我基本上我也非常同意，就是說政策是要一致性……"],["黃委員珊珊：政策不能互相矛盾。"],["楊總裁金龍：但是……"],["黃委員珊珊：政策不能自己打自己。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，當然啦！但是……"],["黃委員珊珊：所以我說總裁，你要大聲地說出來，政策不能自己打自己，我這邊在打，你不能左手打右手啊！你這邊為了選舉提出的政策，跟我的是相反的啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：中央銀行只能提出，就是說政策要一致性。"],["黃委員珊珊：央行很重要，央行講的話大家都會聽，全世界都會聽。"],["楊總裁金龍：我們也希望是這樣子。"],["黃委員珊珊：好，總裁，其實還有另外一個最近比較夯的題目，因為我們的寬鬆貨幣低利息，讓民眾非常非常不知道要投資什麼，所以最近可以看到我們的儲蓄，本來是3兆左右，目前到2024的預測值已經達到3.84兆。也就是說民眾手上很多錢、很多現金，不知道要買什麼，所以最近很夯的就是高股息的ETF，還有美債的ETF可以賣到上千億。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["黃委員珊珊：然後現在的問題就是有這種說法，當然低利政策超過成長區間的M2，讓大家手上的現金太多，但是存銀行的利率又太低，所以去投資這些所謂定期配息風險比較低的ETF。可是低利的政策同樣造就了很多很多我們看到的投資詐騙，民眾有錢想投資，買不到高額利率的就去衝風險，然後讓這些所謂的投資詐騙集團開始用投資詐騙的方式來欺騙民眾。這兩件事情，總裁，我們有什麼樣的解方，或者是我們有什麼方式來引導？央行我相信也是金融教育推動小組的一員，金融素養，還有對於國人的財經的觀念，就這些事情也有一個主導的作用。總裁可以做些什麼事情讓民眾更瞭解投資、更能夠把他的錢用在最有用的地方？而不至於被詐騙，會去買了很多他可能不需要的東西。"],["楊總裁金龍：每一個投資人有他的投資策略，但是……"],["黃委員珊珊：那你覺得ETF的這個狀況正常嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：所以才會就是金管會目前也覺得有一點過熱，它也嘗試地要讓這種熱度能夠降下來……"],["黃委員珊珊：因為我們的錢不知道去哪裡，所以我們的股票2萬點，然後房子也漲不停。同樣的，會去買這些東西，就表示大家的錢沒有做投資，都是做這種，不會去投資公司、投資工廠，而是投資到這些商品上面。所以總裁，我是說如果我們有低利，我們應該要有相對的配套，提供更好的投資標的給人民做選擇，好嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：好，謝謝委員。"],["主席：下一位質詢請王世堅委員。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":192,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-20-3","speakers":["羅明才","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","李彥秀","賴惠員","王鴻薇","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","黃珊珊","王世堅","李坤城","陳玉珍","顏寬恒","謝衣鳯","邱志偉","洪孟楷","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":129,"meetingDate":["2024-03-14"],"gazette_id":"1131301","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1131301_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第3次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質\n詢","agenda_id":"1131301_00003"}},"transcript":{"pyannote":[{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":0.09846875000000001,"end":1.3134687500000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":2.4778437500000003,"end":2.49471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":2.49471875,"end":3.64221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":8.45159375,"end":8.738468750000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":8.94096875,"end":9.88596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":10.25721875,"end":13.04159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":13.547843750000002,"end":15.26909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":15.454718750000001,"end":16.19721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":16.551593750000002,"end":28.63409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":19.977218750000002,"end":20.43284375}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王偉文"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}