{"error":false,"id":["150435"],"data":{"IVOD_ID":150435,"IVOD_URL":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/150435","日期":"2024-03-27","會議資料":{"會議代碼":"委員會-11-1-20-5","會議代碼:str":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第5次全體委員會議","屆":11,"會期":1,"會次":5,"臨時會會次":null,"種類":"委員會","委員會代碼":[20],"委員會代碼:str":["財政委員會"],"標題":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第5次全體委員會議"},"影片種類":"Clip","開始時間":"2024-03-27T09:23:01+08:00","結束時間":"2024-03-27T09:35:37+08:00","影片長度":"00:12:36","支援功能":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/9baf490faf5eb4d5660f0e20912e90d9edc5a8dea5ca6478f8ba9b0039caa7a6551992b9489857505ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"林德福","委員發言時間":"09:23:01 - 09:35:37","會議時間":"2024-03-27T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第5次全體委員會議（事由：邀請行政院主計總處朱主計長澤民、中央銀行楊總裁金龍、經濟部率台灣電力股份有限公司就電價大漲及央行升息對物價波動的影響進行專題報告，並備質詢。\n【3月25日及27日二天一次會】）","gazette":{"lineno":87,"blocks":[["林委員德福：（9時23分）謝謝主席。楊總裁、朱主計長還有曾次長還有與會各列席官員，是不是請楊總裁？"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：林委員早。"],["林委員德福：總裁早。我請教，因為電價大漲和央行升息的兩個決策是不是對物價波動都有影響？你認為呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：我覺得會有影響。"],["林委員德福：會有影響？"],["楊總裁金龍：但是是溫和的。"],["林委員德福：好，那兩者對物價波動來說，到底是因還是什麼？是不是果？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想電價調漲是有它的道理。"],["林委員德福：有它的道理，就是因為電價調漲……"],["楊總裁金龍：電價調漲中央銀行也調升了，revise up，就是上修了……"],["林委員德福：調升半碼。"],["楊總裁金龍：不是，是上修了我們的通膨率。"],["林委員德福：通膨率？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，我們預測的通膨率。主計總處也調升了一些，國發會也是，基本上，調升是溫和的。"],["林委員德福：你認為電價大漲跟升息兩個是不是根本就是互為因果？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想這個應該是這麼說啦！就是說因為電價調漲，我們相關的單位都會調升我們對通膨的……"],["林委員德福：你為的就是要抑制通膨嘛！所以說……"],["楊總裁金龍：我們不是抑制通膨，而是要抑制對通膨的預期心理。"],["林委員德福：對啦！就是因為考量到電價調漲後恐怕會形成較高的通膨預期，所以央行決定升息……"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員再說一次，在我們的報告裡面，重點在第3頁這邊，我們的報告講得很清楚……"],["林委員德福：我知道，是不是主要的目的就是希望能夠穩定物價？因此你升息半碼，是不是這樣？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，應該是這樣……"],["林委員德福：達到整體經濟金融穩健的發展，是不是這樣？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["林委員德福：總裁，貨幣政策緊縮若踩煞車，高通膨將更難擊退，但是升息如果過了頭，整個經濟恐怕又會陷入衰退。請問總裁，央行這次升息的決策會不會讓原本景氣開始反轉、平穩復甦的速度變得更緩慢，會不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：應該不會啦！"],["林委員德福：不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：因為基本上，我們的經濟成長率是三點二二，今年是三點二二，主計總處是三點四幾，基本上三點四幾或三點二二還算是溫和的成長，這一次的利率調整對我們經濟的成長基本上影響不會很大。"],["林委員德福：我請教總裁，升息抑制通膨預期的心理，是不是你認為一定有效？會不會失靈啊？"],["楊總裁金龍：所以我們就說我們會密切注意。"],["林委員德福：央行是不是只有繼續升息一途，還是有其他的辦法來解決呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想政府有一個穩定物價小組，我覺得從供給面來著手是很有效的。"],["林委員德福：總裁，因為幾乎全世界都在降息，為了我們要抑制通膨，所以你又升息半碼，總裁，主計總處年初評估我國沒有所謂的通膨現象，請問總裁，為什麼沒有通膨現象，而你認為會出現通膨的預期心理，難道所有民眾的心理上都出現了幻覺嗎？你的看法呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，基本上，第一個，我們相較其他國家來講的話，真的，我們的通膨是很溫和的。"],["林委員德福：很溫和？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，但……"],["林委員德福：總裁，是不是這幾年的物價上漲超乎預期，才導致民眾認定通膨會越來越厲害？還是物價上漲根本就是一直都存在，你的看法呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：這一次的通膨是很特殊啦！"],["林委員德福：很特殊？"],["楊總裁金龍：是很特殊，你看看喔，從COVID-19開始，俄烏戰爭，然後美國的bottleneck，這些都導致了通膨。還有COVID-19解封了以後，需求就上升。"],["林委員德福：總裁，因為過去政府的態度就是冷處理啦，也遇到選舉，以至於現在電價的調漲更加劇推升所有物價接力的上漲，才讓央行必須透過升息來緩和這些通膨的問題，你的看法呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：我覺得剛剛經濟部也報告的很清楚，第一個，電價的調整是每年都有一定的機制……"],["林委員德福：都有一定，但是……"],["楊總裁金龍：這有一定的機制，在3月跟9月或10月，這個是它一定的機制。我剛剛一直在強調的就是，我們的通膨相較其他國家來講都是溫和的，只是說這幾次是比較特殊，所謂特殊是我們的通膨連續幾年都是高於2%，所以中央銀行才要就是說，而且我們的升息說實在是很溫和的。"],["林委員德福：因為升息政策對抗通膨預期的心理，但是升息也加重了借貸資金成本以及借貸族還款的壓力，現在行政院又決議針對部分民眾貸款的一些負擔由政府來全額補貼，對於政府這樣左手決策升息、右手補貼貸款利息負擔的一個作法，請問總裁，你認為會不會讓央行整個抗通膨的目的打折扣？會不會？"],["楊總裁金龍：基本上，我是覺得中央銀行如果要對抗通膨預期，我們做一個緩和的、溫和的……"],["林委員德福：緩和升息嘛！但是行政院……"],["楊總裁金龍：對，政府為了照顧這些……"],["林委員德福：所以行政院又補貼嘛，等於左手給右手嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：不過這個也是屬於健全房屋方案裡面的一環啦，也就是說，政府做這件事，事實上也是在那一環的裡面。"],["林委員德福：對，但是你認為這樣會不會讓抗通膨的目的被打折扣呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：這個可能要密切去注意它。"],["林委員德福：要密切注意？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，要密切注意。"],["林委員德福：4月電價調漲，漲電價的漣漪已經在發酵，大眾運輸當中，像臺鐵、高鐵、公路客運隨時都醞釀要提高票價。請問總裁，你認為漲電價配套升息的作法真的能夠抑制並限縮物價上漲漣漪效應的擴大嗎？你認為呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：跟委員報告，基本上，即使我們升息、即使電價上漲，不過我們的通膨率還是持續在下降的，我們的預測是這樣子，主計總處的預測也是這樣子，其他機構的預測也都是這樣子。"],["林委員德福：總裁，去年每人經常性薪資平均4萬5,496元，實質總薪資為5萬8,545元，剔除物價因素後，雙雙負成長，其中實質總薪資不僅是7年來首度衰退，減幅1.04%更創11年來最大，學者都認為去年通膨率較高，把名目薪資吃掉，外加外食、租屋費用增幅很高，讓受薪階級的貧窮感尤其深刻，今年薪資下滑，貧窮感持續存在的機率，總裁，你認為發生機率高不高？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想是這樣，在上年，委員也都知道，各主要國家的升息幅度都非常高，全球的需求就下降下來，下降下來的時候，導致我們的出口不好，去年我們的出口就只有一個資通訊比較好，其他的連我們的電子業也不是很好，其他的就更不用說，所以它的薪資就被壓制了。"],["林委員德福：對，假如去年是特殊的狀況……"],["楊總裁金龍：主要是因為我們的出口不好。"],["林委員德福：那今年這種狀況持續發生，請問總裁，是不是代表軍公教今年調薪4%仍沒有辦法對抗通膨下的物價飆漲？"],["楊總裁金龍：我在想，今年我們對經濟成長率的估計是3%以上嘛，另外一個是調薪，慢慢的我們經濟成長變好的時候，它的薪資也會調高，通膨率也會慢慢下來，所以基本上實質薪資是負的這個現象會改善。"],["林委員德福：總裁，你說電價調漲可能使通膨預期心理形成，推高通膨率，若通膨率持續高檔，消費者將較強烈感受物價普遍上漲，廠商則為了維持利潤率而頻繁調升售價，產生通膨預期的制約，將不利物價的穩定。然而通膨預期效果大小應該和當下的通膨環境直接有關，在高通膨環境下，則通膨預期較易形成，通膨效果也比較大、較難以評估。請問總裁，如果以臺灣這10年的薪資跟物價比，是不是可以推定是朝高通膨環境的方向在前進？是不是這樣子？"],["楊總裁金龍：基本上我們也做過研究了，如果以2015年、2017年以來，事實上我們的經濟成長率比美國、日本、南韓都好，而我們的實質薪資比美國跟日本都好，但是跟南韓來比較呢，我們是輸它一些。"],["林委員德福：這樣喔！最後，在這個時機點，政府明知電價調漲會影響這麼大，為什麼不補貼台電多一點，減少全面性漲電價的通膨衝擊？況且在經濟處於復甦起步的階段採取溫和升息，難道就能夠減低這幾年物價上漲環境下，民眾對未來高通膨環境的預期嗎？你認為呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想預算的問題政府會有全盤的考量，這個不是我們中央銀行可以回答的。"],["林委員德福：對啊，今天主計長在這裡啊，它都有超收、超徵啊，對不對？其實這是可以解決的，好，我時間到了，謝謝。"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝。下一位質詢請吳秉叡委員。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":370,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-20-5","speakers":["羅明才","吳秉叡","林德福","賴士葆","李彥秀","郭國文","賴惠員","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","王鴻薇","李坤城","黃珊珊","王世堅","鄭天財Sra 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