{"error":false,"id":["150493"],"data":{"IVOD_ID":150493,"IVOD_URL":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/150493","日期":"2024-03-27","會議資料":{"會議代碼":"委員會-11-1-20-5","會議代碼:str":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第5次全體委員會議","屆":11,"會期":1,"會次":5,"臨時會會次":null,"種類":"委員會","委員會代碼":[20],"委員會代碼:str":["財政委員會"],"標題":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第5次全體委員會議"},"影片種類":"Clip","開始時間":"2024-03-27T11:18:19+08:00","結束時間":"2024-03-27T11:30:59+08:00","影片長度":"00:12:40","支援功能":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/9baf490faf5eb4d5eac63743f63c3c92edc5a8dea5ca6478f8ba9b0039caa7a66ffb1ffb47bf31ea5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"李坤城","委員發言時間":"11:18:19 - 11:30:59","會議時間":"2024-03-27T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第5次全體委員會議（事由：邀請行政院主計總處朱主計長澤民、中央銀行楊總裁金龍、經濟部率台灣電力股份有限公司就電價大漲及央行升息對物價波動的影響進行專題報告，並備質詢。\n【3月25日及27日二天一次會】）","gazette":{"lineno":753,"blocks":[["李委員坤城：（11時18分）謝謝主席。有請央行楊總裁。"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：李委員早。"],["李委員坤城：總裁好。台電的電價預計在4月1日就要調漲了，其實央行算是洞燭機先啦！過去就是認為在台電的電價調漲之後，可能會有預期性的通膨，所以在上個禮拜的理監事會議有升息了半碼，雖然說外界有覺得surprise，但是我覺得這也合理啦！因為預期物價可能會蠢蠢欲動，所以先預防性的升息半碼，有一點要溫和或是抑制一下物價，是不是？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["李委員坤城：所以當初大家在會議裡面考量的，最主要的理由就是認為物價會上漲？"],["楊總裁金龍：不是，最主要是通膨的預期心理。"],["李委員坤城：好，台電電價調漲平均11%，外界認為對於CPI會有影響，像主計總處也預計會增加0.18%，全年影響是0.24%，因為接下來剩下四分之三個年度，預估CPI年增率是2.03%。央行也預估會增加0.27%，預估全年度的CPI成長率是2.16%，都有上調，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["李委員坤城：好，我們看到電價費率的調整跟CPI是有呈現正相關，以歷年來講，只要有調整電價的話，CPI都會跟著成長，所以電價調幅跟CPI是有正成長，有這個相關的觀念。那今天請大家來報告的題目是說電價調漲，然後對於物價波動的影響，先請教一下總裁，央行升息對於物價影響是正相關還是負相關？"],["楊總裁金龍：理論上，我們升息對抑制物價應該是會有影響，但是我們所做出來的預測是些微的影響而已，是負的，是些微的影響而已。"],["李委員坤城：對於物價會有一些……"],["楊總裁金龍：會有抑制的作用。"],["李委員坤城：會有抑制的作用。"],["楊總裁金龍：但是是很些微而已。"],["李委員坤城：如果理論上升息會有抑制作用的話，那……"],["楊總裁金龍：如果就美國來講，它是大經濟體，它的升息、尤其是它升息的幅度非常大，所以對物價的抑制就會比較明顯，幅度要大。"],["李委員坤城：所以說升息半碼對於物價雖然有抑制，但是效果還不明顯。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，不會像美國這樣子，它的幅度很大，它會有影響。"],["李委員坤城：好，現在電價調漲之後，物價有蠢蠢欲動的感覺，我覺得這個也是預期性的，就是說大家都覺得會漲、會漲、會漲，可能最後就真的漲了。在這種情況之下，剛剛很多委員也問過總裁，在6月份要開理監事會議的話，如果物價持續地成長，甚至1到5月的CPI年增率超過央行所預估的2.16%，有沒有考慮會再升息？"],["楊總裁金龍：不過我們是預測第1季跟第2季都會在2%以上，到第3季的時候才會在2%左右，那第4季就會在2%以下，這是我們目前的估計，但是這是一個預測，預測不會是很準確的。"],["李委員坤城：央行的預測會很準確啦！央行的預測怎麼會不準確？"],["楊總裁金龍：不會很準確，但是我們在6月的時候會再修正，對於未來的物價會再做一個預測。"],["李委員坤城：如果物價一直在漲呢？因為有一種預期性的心理嘛！有些沒有要漲的也跟著大家漲了。"],["楊總裁金龍：現在我們就是來看看第1季、第2季，如果還是在2%，因為目前已經覺得第1季、第2季會在2%以上，如果到6月的時候……"],["李委員坤城：那就是說，如果是2%或2%多的話，都還是在你們預估的範圍之內。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，即使再稍微高一點點，應該也是沒有多大問題。"],["李委員坤城：所以也沒有說2就是你的警戒線嘛？"],["楊總裁金龍：應該是中長期來講，2是警戒線。"],["李委員坤城：中長期，那短期如果在2到2.5之間波動咧？"],["楊總裁金龍：2到2.5，我覺得應該也是沒有多大問題。"],["李委員坤城：如果按照這種說法的話，6月份應該不會再讓我們有一次surprise吧？"],["楊總裁金龍：到目前為止，我們的政策利率已經是15年以來的高點，我們的市場利率也是比15年前都來得高，特別是先進國家他們現在都在討論也許6月份的時候就要開始降息，那中央銀行在估、在調整利息的時候也要參考一下，所以我們這個報告裡面也有談到……"],["李委員坤城：所以我綜合總裁所講的話，因為你們在3月份的時候已經有升息半碼了，你們認為升息半碼之後，對於物價會有稍微抑制的效果，就算CPI成長率有稍微在2到2.5之間浮動，但是因為我們的利率也高了，然後國外有可能會降息，所以6月份的時候有可能不動就對了？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，應該也可以這麼說，預測啦！也可以這麼說。"],["李委員坤城：好，謝謝總裁。我再請一下曾次長。"],["主席：請曾次長。"],["曾次長文生：委員早。"],["李委員坤城：次長好。因為電價費率審議委員會已經通過了，電價調漲在4月1日應該會如期實施吧？"],["曾次長文生：我在今天的報告裡面有提到，這個是根據104年立法院決議做的電價審議，就是定期審議的機制，後來電業法修正以後，我們就把這個納入子法，我們會依照現在的法規來執行。"],["李委員坤城：對，你們3月底有開過會了嘛！決定平均調幅大概11%左右，然後預計4月1日如期實施就對了？"],["曾次長文生：目前就是依照我們的法規在執行，4月1日。"],["李委員坤城：好，請教一下次長，台電在111年的時候虧損了2,265億，112年虧損了1,985億，我當然知道烏俄戰爭會有影響，然後113年電價有調漲了，行政院也有撥補1,000億進來了，請教次長，2024年，也就是113年，台電預期還會再虧損多少呢？"],["曾次長文生：剛才您提了兩個前提，就是我們這一次電價調漲的實施，再加上預定有1,000億……"],["李委員坤城：我現在是問說電價調漲之後，可以撥補多少金額回來你們的……"],["曾次長文生：依照現在的調漲方案，9個月的時間大概六百多億。"],["李委員坤城：六百多億。"],["曾次長文生：對，一整年我們是估八百多億。"],["李委員坤城：好，那政府又給你們1,000億了，對不對？"],["曾次長文生：是。"],["李委員坤城：因為去年稅收有增加，那算一下，今年度咧？今年度的虧損。"],["曾次長文生：我們今年的預算數原來是虧1,887億，這個是假設有調3%的狀況，如果這個扣掉不算是兩千一百多億。如果現在我們有1,000億，就是這個預算能夠通過審議，然後來補貼台電，再加上現在的電價，那我們再看國際燃料價格的變化，我們現在粗估不足數，可能虧損大概100億左右。但如果國際的價格變化有比較大，然後我們做了一些調整，我們看看今年有沒有辦法損益兩平，但是目前我們算出來還是大約虧100億左右。"],["李委員坤城：所以你們對下半年度是比較樂觀的，等於說原物料有可能會下跌嗎？"],["曾次長文生：就是說整個數字算起來，我們現在加起來大概一千六百多億，跟原來的距離大概差400億左右，那我們再減掉100億，大概差300億，我們是估算說燃料價格有可能再往下做一點平穩，因為目前看起來，全球景氣復甦的速度沒有那麼快，不過臺灣因為有特殊的題材，所以臺灣的狀況會比較好，但是燃料價格看國際。"],["李委員坤城：好，這樣算一算，算虧損100億好了，跟前兩年這樣累積起來也快有4,000億嘛？"],["曾次長文生：差不多。"],["李委員坤城：我再請教一下，如果這樣子的話，明年度電價還有可能再調整嗎？"],["曾次長文生：這個我們還是要跟院裡面討論啦！我們看到鄰國韓國，韓國早先在2022、2023，他們有提出透過比較長時間的方式，他們的虧損規模比我們更大，他們是八千多億，現在搞不好更多，那怎麼樣能夠透過比較長期的價格調整，調幅不要那麼劇烈的狀況下來拉平。我覺得臺灣的狀況一樣，到時候的調整也會考慮到當時國內的經濟情勢來做判斷。"],["李委員坤城：因為現在台電……"],["曾次長文生：我想我現在沒有辦法馬上回答您，但我要說，我剛才說可能損益兩平是基於政府補貼1,000億的狀況。"],["李委員坤城：對，我知道。"],["曾次長文生：我簡單來講，1%大概是八百多……1,000億就是12%左右，大概是這樣的數字。"],["李委員坤城：我們關心的是，台電目前就算是政府有撥補，電價也調漲，還是虧損了大概4,000億左右。"],["曾次長文生：累積的，過去累積的。"],["李委員坤城：對，我是說過去這兩、三年累積下來的，4,000億左右嘛！那這個4,000億你要讓它虧損減少，要嘛就是政府再增加或是你們台電再增資，要嘛就是再調漲電價。"],["曾次長文生：是的。"],["李委員坤城：我們比較沒辦法接受每年都調漲，每年都調漲是我們比較沒有辦法接受的啦！所以你們自己要有一套財務試算，關於虧損的部分要怎麼去處理，因為這個是大家都很關心的嘛！不能因為台電虧損，然後每年就做調漲，我覺得我們會比較關心這一點。"],["曾次長文生：我想這個部分我們會整個平衡來做考慮，我們也不希望年年都調，這是第一件事情。但是我們採取的方式是調幅沒有像其他國家這麼劇烈的方法，這就是選擇了一個做法，這個做法就是會把調整的時間拉長。","簡單來講，就是電價調了，如果零售物價上去，其實不太容易回來，但是國際燃料價格上去可能會回來，我們是怕把整個物價頂上去的時候下不來，我想這個都經過整體的考量。當然電價是回歸市場，其實通膨這件事不完全是經濟部主管，我想主計處、央行都非常地關切這件事，那它的問題也不完全是電價的問題。"],["主席：好，時間到。"],["李委員坤城：好，謝謝次長，謝謝主席。"],["主席：現在請黃珊珊委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":370,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-20-5","speakers":["羅明才","吳秉叡","林德福","賴士葆","李彥秀","郭國文","賴惠員","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","王鴻薇","李坤城","黃珊珊","王世堅","鄭天財Sra 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 謝謝總裁那我再請一下我們的這個曾次長請曾次長委員長次長好"},{"start":398.342,"end":424.151,"text":"這個因為這個電價費率審議委員會已經通過了這個電價這個在4月1號應該會就是如期實施了吧這個條長跟委員報告我們是我在今天的報告裡面有提到這個是根據104年立法院決議做的電價審議就是定期審議這樣的機制那我們後來電業法修正以後我們就把這納入執法那我們會依照現在的法規來執行"},{"start":425.691,"end":444.566,"text":"就是說你們3月底有開過會了嘛然後就是說決定就是說這個平均條幅大概11%左右然後預計4月1日如期實施就對了目前我們現在就是依照我們的法規在執行4月1號那請教一下次長齁這個台電齁這個在110年的時候虧損了這個2265億那112年呢虧損了是1985億那我當然知道說這一個烏鶴戰爭會有影響"},{"start":454.614,"end":478.225,"text":"然後呢113年呢這個電價有調漲了然後這個行政院也有撥補一千億進來了那請教一下次長那這個2024年就113年呢台電預期還會再虧損多少勒各位報告就是說我們剛才您提的兩個前提就是我們這一次的電價調漲實施然後再加上那我先問說電價調漲之後可以對於這一個電價這一個因為調漲"},{"start":483.12,"end":483.48,"text":"﹚李坤城﹚"},{"start":506.707,"end":516.35,"text":"我跟委員報告那個我們今年的預算數原來是虧1887億那個是假設有調3%的狀況那調3%的狀況如果這個扣掉不算是2100多億那如果現在我們有1000億就是這個預算能夠通過審議然後能夠補貼台電再加上現在的電價那我們再看國際的燃料價格的變化我們現在初估"},{"start":535.776,"end":538.078,"text":"所以你們對下半年度是比較樂觀的?就是說原物料可能會下跌嗎?"},{"start":556.832,"end":584.79,"text":"跟委員報告就是說整個數字算起來就是我們現在加起來大概1600多那跟原來的距離大概差400億左右那我們再減掉100億大概差300億我們是估算說燃料價格是有可能再往下做一點評委因為目前看起來全球景氣復甦的速度沒有那麼快但台灣因為有特殊的題材所以台灣的狀況會稍微比較好但是燃料價格看國際"},{"start":586.571,"end":602.819,"text":"就是說那就算是這一個虧損算一算虧損100億好了齁那這個跟前兩年這樣累積起來快有4千億吧那4千億的那我再請教一下就是說那如果這樣子的話那明年度電價還有可能再調整嗎"},{"start":603.817,"end":630.08,"text":"那個跟委員報告這個我們還是要跟院裡面做討論就是說我們看到我們鄰國韓國韓國大概當時有提出早現在2022、2023他們有提出一個就是透過比較長時間的方式把他們他們的虧損規模比我們更大他們8000多億現在搞不好更多那怎麼樣子能夠透過比較長期的價格調整調幅不要那麼劇烈的狀況下來拉平那我覺得台灣的狀況一樣"},{"start":631.641,"end":657.3,"text":"就是到時候的調整也是會考慮到整個當時國內的經濟情勢來做判斷我想說我現在沒有辦法馬上回答您但我要說您剛才說的我剛才說的可能損益良貧是基於政府補貼一千億的狀況對我知道我簡單來講就是1%大概800多就一千億就是12%左右大概是這樣的數字"},{"start":658.101,"end":683.4,"text":"我們關心的就是說台電目前就算是政府撥補電價調漲那還是虧損的大概有4千億左右累積的過去累積的對啊過去這兩三年累積下來的嘛4千億左右嘛那這個4千億你要讓它虧損減少要嘛就是政府在增加或是你們台電在增資要嘛就是在調漲這個電價嘛那我們比較沒辦法接受就是說每年都調漲"},{"start":684.673,"end":702.949,"text":"每年都調漲這就是我們比較沒辦法去接受的啦那所以說你們自己要有一套這一個財務試算關於這一個虧損的部分你們要怎麼去做處理啦因為這大家都很關心的嘛那不能說因為這個台電虧損然後每年就做調漲這個我覺得是我們會比較關心這一點啦"},{"start":705.185,"end":730.322,"text":"我想委員這個部分就是說我們會平衡整個平衡來做考慮這個事情是我們也不希望就是年年都調我先講這是第一件事情但是我們採取的方式是調服沒有像其他國家這麼劇烈的方法這就是選擇了一個做法但是做法就是會把調整的時間拉長對於因為簡單來講就是電價調了如果零售物價上去其實不太容易回來"},{"start":730.742,"end":752.152,"text":"但是國際燃料價格上去可能會回來我們是怕把整個物價頂上去的時候下不來我想這個都經過整體的考量那當然電價是回歸市場其實通膨這件事不完全是經濟部主管我想主計處央行都非常的關切這件事那他的問題也不完全是電價的問題好 謝謝市長 謝謝主席現在執行請黃森山黃委員"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}