{"error":false,"id":["153190"],"data":{"IVOD_ID":153190,"IVOD_URL":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/153190","日期":"2024-05-29","會議資料":{"會議代碼":"委員會-11-1-35-22","會議代碼:str":"第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議","屆":11,"會期":1,"會次":22,"臨時會會次":null,"種類":"委員會","委員會代碼":[35],"委員會代碼:str":["外交及國防委員會"],"標題":"第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議"},"影片種類":"Clip","開始時間":"2024-05-29T09:46:47+08:00","結束時間":"2024-05-29T09:59:22+08:00","影片長度":"00:12:35","支援功能":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/2c978e04ca5e1331eea7c84ab68e019c74cb636d3605ada8333bc5d453e1b1950c61b53b4db24b935ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"陳永康","委員發言時間":"09:46:47 - 09:59:22","會議時間":"2024-05-29T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議（事由：邀請國家安全局局長蔡明彥、外交部、大陸委員會報告「第十六屆總統就職後國際暨兩岸情勢發展對我國安之影響」，並備質詢。）","gazette":{"lineno":187,"blocks":[["陳委員永康：（9時46分）主席，有請國安局蔡局長。"],["主席：請蔡局長。"],["蔡局長明彥：謝謝主席，陳委員好。"],["陳委員永康：局長你好。我想前面兩位委員的重點都關心在我們的國安，至於國安機制裡面如何運作、如何把不同的資訊做整合，然後分享，尤其是提供國安會參與重要關切問題的資源、反應時間、人力負荷，這些東西我想很多委員都在關心，我現在提供的是一個方法論，也並不需要局長現場做回答。我們來看一下，尤其是2024 A利劍演習，我們從媒體、從客觀、從公情、從不同的管道，我們收斂產生出來的結果讓大家來分享一下。"],["蔡局長明彥：好，謝謝委員。"],["陳委員永康：第一個，各位看一下這張圖，是一張衛照圖套疊了臺灣，有領海基線、有12浬，還有在我們東邊日本的與那國島、宮古島那些相關的基地，以及海峽中線。如果我們參與重要會議的國安單位，包括陸委會、國防部，如果國安局甚至是其他部會，我們沒有一個基礎的共同圖像，都是個人的判斷，就會產生因為位置的誤差，而造成估算的誤差。","我們再看下一張，這是民航局的國際航路圖，本島、外島全部在內，包括空軍的訓練空域，這都是來自公情。中國大陸這一次的利劍演習，雖然叫做示意區，但是你發現他的位置是可以校正，只是沒有發布操演區的經緯度。這一次根據公情公開顯示，我們國軍掌握的各個演習區域，包括水面艦、包括海警、包括空中的機，這個動作出來，報紙有登，各個不同領域的人有不同的解讀。我們再看下一張，這張是大範圍的圖，不只是臺海的周遭，包括南海、包括東海，民航的航線、503航線、中共發布的演習區，當時整個大區域的氣象，因為颱風要來了，這次國防部公布的操演區，我們統統經過校正，可是我們是非常肯定國軍能夠保持他的操演兵力，就是都拒止在24浬之外。但是國防部標示出來它的演習區，跟中共發布的區域範圍，如果用圖形比較套疊，發現有不一樣的地方，這個不談對錯。所以產生的結果，我們根據CSIS馬上做了一篇，左邊是中共發布的，右邊是我們國防部發布的，所以範圍有所落差，那麼如果以局裡面的角色來看，把兩個圖套疊，我們就知道內部我們的解釋為什麼要產生這個落差，是因為反制媒體戰或者是心理戰，或者有其他的文攻武嚇，它的作為可以幫忙做解套，所以精準圖資、正確判斷，智慧用兵要操之在我。","下面我們就用方法論、收斂的方法來解釋這次的演習，我們先看東部戰區發言人表示，它是檢驗戰區聯合作戰的實戰能力；演練的項目包括聯合海空戰備警巡、聯合奪取戰場綜合控制權、聯合精打要害目標等。那麼一體化的聯合作戰，這是在中共來講，實際上是許多年度演習計畫，這個並不代表是它的犯臺計畫，但是是文攻武嚇的一個手段跟方法，所以我們看它的本質、特徵、核心、目標、基礎是什麼。它的三個步驟以戰役規則實現整體的整合力量，制定聯合作戰計畫，它一面在演練、一面在精進，所以並不是一般媒體想像中的有訓、有演就轉戰，根本不可能，那是外行。因為一個作戰計畫、戰役計畫，沒有3個月時間作準備，預期後面兩個禮拜的大型天候變化，這個計畫不可行。以戰術的規則來驗證末端的監控，要計劃制定聯合作戰的行動規則；活用規則控制作戰行動，這就到底下末端的小部隊，這一次出來的部隊規模實際上並不大。","我們講到灰色地帶，它執行聯合利劍2024A的原則是不設限，沒有發布禁航區、沒有影響到國際航道，也沒有動手，也沒有實彈射擊或做海上的臨檢。那麼統戰的策略是灰色地帶的行動、隔離封鎖、武力攻臺「三項行動」，這是它的念頭、它的想法，將來會做常態不定期穿插行動，就是變成4個new normal常態化。可是如果我們沒有一個共同的基礎圖像，不同的單位……比方講我們在國安會開會，國防部、國安局或者陸委會、外交部，你沒有一個共同圖像，是各個參謀提供你長官的論述，就是論述方法可能套疊出來的現象並不是一個coherent，不能夠統一的。同樣就是我們常常講對方利用灰色地帶行動，灰色地帶的行動基本上就是避免軍事衝突，但是威懾武嚇產生消耗型、無止境的消耗戰。那反過來檢討，我們自己的灰色是什麼？第一個，法律不周延，這個是1982年的聯合國海洋法公約第一版，就是美國在海洋法公約裡面的執法論述跟無害通過（innocent passage），跟我們中華民國的要求是不一致的，同樣對於南海的定義，我們當年政府的論述跟美方的解讀也有落差，我不談對錯。至於反介入與國際理論，因為很多的國家，包括我們的海軍現在都有這本叫Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea（CUES），這個是unclassified，你都可以看得到，所以利用這本裡面的內容，透過MOFA、透過國防部、外交部以及陸委會，大家對這上面有一個共同的認知，我想對於局裡長期的情勢判斷是有幫助的。那麼演習時間雖然只有兩天，它是中央軍委會下面東部戰區，檢視解放軍執行海空聯合戰備巡邏、聯合奪取戰場綜合控制以及聯合精準打擊的能力，它是在持續精進、在練習，但不是犯臺計畫。另外就是結合了海警，執法行動、聯合巡邏、快速反應、應變處理，這個比較面臨挑戰就是我們講law enforcement，我們的海巡署跟對方，我們希望在low end的部分還是要保持能夠對話溝通，就像用CUES一樣。所以我們看到外面的一般情報或者是公情，或者媒體報導講述的就是要全程演練、奪島演練，這是不正確的。實際上它是對我們不停的施壓，後面的科目也會不一樣，所以它實際上做的是一種表象的認知作戰，那我們就不要被認知作戰誤導去做誤判。","各位看下面這個國防部公布的圖，實際上這個下面就是我們長年來面臨到的中共的文攻武嚇，上兵伐謀，不戰而屈人之兵；其次伐交不只是斷你的國家友邦，同時包括你的海纜、對外聯絡，這個是communication；其次伐兵就是消耗你的戰力，去看看你的作戰計畫是不是周延完成；最後才是所謂的攻擊兩棲進犯。實際上它只是威懾武嚇、軍演困臺，持續利誘國際孤立，美中角力的過程中持續施壓，它希望動搖你的國家生存重心。剛剛很多同仁講到了這個想定我們國家沒有想到，我特別要提醒如果我們沒有一個Joint Common Operational Picture（JCOP），如果由貴局來提供，那麼在國安會層級，包括行政院的國土安全部，比方講現在所有的高壓電塔超高壓配線，在辦公室有這些圖嗎？我相信它沒有。電話協調的時候，說龍崎的配電廠超高壓345千伏、161千伏，幾個變電器跳掉了，什麼時候能夠修復？沒有人能回答，國土辦也不會回答。","所以我們來看一下模擬的一個scenario，今年在3月14、15，我在政大國關中心是諮詢委員，亞太安全中心我們辦了一個國際性的兵棋推演，國外參加的人員有60位，27個是來自耶魯大學的資深教授、研究員，我們看一下一個想定發展出來，這次中共用所謂的遠程的火箭兵、火箭軍導彈，如果兩棲要進犯，但是沒有做，所有演習的過程中間所謂的進、圍、鎖、擊、毀斷，真正它要的目的是什麼呢？就是在後面那個圈圈，它的目標是在48到72小時癱瘓你的民生社會結構、電力系統、燃油、海纜、通訊，剛剛都講了，銀行金融、飲水、化工、電子、空中運輸、地面運輸、醫療體系，我們怎麼樣恢復？可能貴局在這個題目上面，集合大家把這個問題找出來，在這個問題能夠找到最好的solution，強化我們的社會韌性，另外再來談國軍的防禦。這個東西我很願意跟貴局的研究人員做討論，提供一個方法論，因為這裡面還要結合資料庫，如果大家只是取單一現象、單一的scenario想定，就來問問題，這個時候找不到一個解決的方案，以上的這個東西提供局長參考，看局長有什麼意見。"],["蔡局長明彥：謝謝委員提供非常專業對於這次共軍演習的分析，在整個共軍演習的過程當中，事實上就像委員剛剛所提到的，重點是在於恫嚇，它並不是要啟戰。同時除了軍事上演訓的恫嚇以外，我們也把關注的重點放在他們海上灰色地帶的操作，特別是在外離島的水域，另外還有認知作戰的操作，這次在兩天演習的過程當中，中共的認知作戰大概聚焦在幾個部分，包括疑美、疑賴、疑軍，也就是在質疑國軍有沒有自我防衛的能力，對於這種複合式的威脅操作，我們覺得會是未來中共對臺持續恫嚇的主要威脅手段。","第二個部分非常感謝委員提醒，我們要來注意所謂的共同運作圖像或共同情報圖像（COP或CIP），這也是我們目前跨部會在進行整合作業的主要重點。謝謝委員的提醒。"],["陳委員永康：好，我們共同努力。"],["蔡局長明彥：謝謝委員。"],["主席：謝謝。接下來請黃仁委員上台質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":54,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-35-22","speakers":["馬文君","羅美玲","洪申翰","陳永康","黃仁","陳冠廷","林楚茵","徐巧芯","王定宇","賴士葆","沈伯洋","王鴻薇","洪孟楷","張啓楷","林宜瑾","林憶君","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":1,"meetingDate":["2024-05-29"],"gazette_id":"1135301","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1135301_00002"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請國家安全局局長蔡明彥、外交部、大陸委員會報告「第十六屆總統就職後國際暨兩岸情勢發\n展對我國安之影響」，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1135301_00001"}},"transcript":{"pyannote":[{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":0.35159375000000004,"end":1.0265937500000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":1.1953437500000001,"end":2.95034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":2.95034375,"end":2.9672187500000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":3.25409375,"end":4.08096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":9.852218750000002,"end":9.869093750000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":9.869093750000001,"end":11.117843750000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":11.20221875,"end":11.556593750000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":12.079718750000001,"end":12.72096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":13.21034375,"end":15.134093750000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":15.488468750000003,"end":21.614093750000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":22.01909375,"end":28.937843750000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":29.32596875,"end":30.64221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":30.96284375,"end":32.58284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":33.02159375,"end":34.69221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":35.19846875,"end":38.337218750000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":38.59034375,"end":47.87159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":48.83346875,"end":49.25534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":49.710968750000006,"end":54.250343750000006},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":54.43596875,"end":55.46534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":55.836593750000006,"end":59.414093750000006},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":59.92034375,"end":63.565343750000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":64.15596875,"end":65.87721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":66.33284375000001,"end":66.97409375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":67.51409375,"end":67.95284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":68.44221875000001,"end":69.40409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":70.06221875,"end":71.05784375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":71.51346875,"end":82.53284375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":82.97159375000001,"end":83.64659375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":83.86596875000001,"end":92.40471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":92.97846875,"end":94.17659375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":94.53096875,"end":97.07909375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":97.33221875000001,"end":105.71909375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":107.35596875,"end":108.52034375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":109.70159375,"end":110.27534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":110.89971875,"end":119.80971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":120.77159375000001,"end":121.56471875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":122.35784375,"end":125.95221875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":127.06596875000001,"end":132.28034375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":132.82034375,"end":133.64721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":134.17034375,"end":135.80721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":136.54971875,"end":138.64221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":139.03034375000001,"end":140.85284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":141.64596875,"end":142.55721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":143.29971875,"end":144.00846875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":145.20659375,"end":146.15159375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":146.18534375000002,"end":148.78409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":149.29034375,"end":149.71221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":149.99909375000001,"end":150.69096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":152.93534375000002,"end":153.77909375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":154.82534375,"end":155.70284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":157.12034375000002,"end":158.03159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":158.68971875,"end":159.29721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":161.05221875,"end":161.71034375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":162.11534375000002,"end":164.57909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":164.57909375,"end":164.64659375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":164.64659375000002,"end":164.66346875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":166.16534375,"end":167.97096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":168.32534375,"end":169.01721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":170.23221875000002,"end":171.58221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":172.20659375000002,"end":190.17846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":190.58346875,"end":193.24971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":193.58721875,"end":195.00471875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":193.60409375,"end":194.21159375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":195.51096875000002,"end":197.16471875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":197.53596875000002,"end":200.03346875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":200.53971875000002,"end":202.14284375000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":202.66596875000002,"end":221.88659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":222.25784375,"end":223.43909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":223.89471875,"end":226.22346875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":226.98284375,"end":228.11346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":228.14721875,"end":229.51409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":229.83471875,"end":240.06096875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":241.78221875000003,"end":249.54471875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":250.06784375,"end":255.70409375000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":256.15971875,"end":264.91784375000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":266.33534375,"end":268.25909375000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":268.83284375,"end":271.43159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":272.08971875000003,"end":291.52971875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":292.01909375,"end":294.56721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":294.93846875,"end":298.53284375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":299.29221875,"end":302.27909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":302.85284375000003,"end":310.93596875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":313.99034375,"end":314.61471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":315.15471875000003,"end":316.11659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":316.45409375,"end":320.47034375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":321.07784375,"end":323.98034375000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":324.55409375,"end":328.14846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":328.85721875,"end":343.28534375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":344.33159375,"end":347.53784375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":348.17909375000005,"end":351.28409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":351.70596875,"end":352.36409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":352.90409375,"end":353.52846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":354.16971875,"end":360.48096875000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":361.32471875000005,"end":364.27784375000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":364.88534375,"end":366.92721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":367.48409375,"end":368.44596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":369.59346875,"end":379.65096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":380.39346875,"end":381.60846875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":382.46909375,"end":383.75159375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":384.27471875000003,"end":386.08034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":386.41784375000003,"end":387.53159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":388.72971875,"end":392.18909375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":392.79659375,"end":396.79596875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":397.47096875000005,"end":398.60159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":398.77034375000005,"end":399.90096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":400.13721875000005,"end":402.90471875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":403.79909375000005,"end":406.51596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":407.19096875,"end":411.76409375000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":412.70909375,"end":413.55284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":414.48096875000005,"end":415.18971875000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":415.79721875,"end":421.28159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":421.60221875,"end":427.01909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":427.23846875000004,"end":430.54596875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":431.33909375,"end":431.89596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":432.82409375000003,"end":434.47784375000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":436.43534375,"end":444.80534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":445.22721875,"end":448.43346875000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":448.75409375000004,"end":451.58909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":452.66909375,"end":457.22534375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":457.63034375,"end":459.57096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":460.70159375000003,"end":463.97534375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":464.70096875,"end":466.82721875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":467.68784375,"end":471.67034375000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":472.07534375000006,"end":476.07471875000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":476.44596875,"end":484.12409375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":484.59659375,"end":485.49096875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":487.00971875000005,"end":490.87409375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":491.61659375000005,"end":496.51034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":497.13471875000005,"end":499.61534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":499.93596875000003,"end":501.03284375000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":501.70784375000005,"end":511.54596875000004},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":512.27159375,"end":513.26721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":515.95034375,"end":516.50721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":516.7434687499999,"end":518.76846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":519.49409375,"end":521.55284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":522.41346875,"end":525.24846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":526.3115937499999,"end":527.17221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":527.6784687500001,"end":528.8090937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":528.9778437500001,"end":532.7578437500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":533.1628437500001,"end":535.2722187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":536.4028437500001,"end":536.9765937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":537.2634687500001,"end":537.9384687500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":538.6472187500001,"end":539.7778437500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":540.7397187500001,"end":541.38096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":541.9040937500001,"end":550.7465937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":551.6072187500001,"end":553.24409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":553.53096875,"end":560.51721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":561.3272187499999,"end":567.6553437499999},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":568.6172187500001,"end":572.2959687499999},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":572.59971875,"end":584.46284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":584.85096875,"end":599.04284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":599.59971875,"end":601.00034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":603.00846875,"end":605.6072187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":606.4172187500001,"end":612.99846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":614.0278437500001,"end":618.2803437499999},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":618.8372187500001,"end":629.72159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":630.54846875,"end":632.5903437500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":633.2822187500001,"end":634.1765937499999},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":635.5265937500001,"end":637.5347187500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":638.1084687499999,"end":640.13346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":640.5890937500001,"end":641.7365937500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":641.9897187500001,"end":655.60784375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":656.02971875,"end":661.8178437500001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":662.1384687500001,"end":662.9990937500002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":663.47159375,"end":666.96471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":667.53846875,"end":690.47159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":690.7922187500001,"end":697.20471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":697.20471875,"end":754.00596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":754.02284375,"end":755.7778437500001}],"whisperx":[{"start":0.611,"end":2.719,"text":"主席有請國安局蔡局長"},{"start":10.198,"end":29.792,"text":"主席陳永康局長你好我想前面兩位委員他的重點都關心在我們的國安至於國安機制裡面的如何運作如何把不同的資訊做整合然後分享尤其是提供國安會參與重要關切問題的資源反應時間人力複合這些東西"},{"start":35.256,"end":35.657,"text":"法定人數不足"},{"start":49.735,"end":49.875,"text":"李卓人議員"},{"start":70.143,"end":92.206,"text":"有十二海里還有在我們東邊日本的雲南國島、宮古島那些相關的基地以及海峽中線這張圖如果我們參與重要會議的國安包括陸委包括國防部如果國安局甚至是其他部會我們沒有一個基礎的共同圖像"},{"start":92.927,"end":92.967,"text":"陳永康議員"},{"start":122.383,"end":150.299,"text":"根據公情公開顯示我們國軍掌握的各個演習區域包括水面艦包括海警包括空中的機那這個動作出來報紙有燈那麼各個不同領域的人有不同的解讀我們再看下一張這張是大範圍的圖就是不只是台海的周遭包括南海包括東海"},{"start":152.981,"end":168.617,"text":"明航的航線503航線中共發布的演習區當時的整個大區域的氣象因為颱風要來了這次國防部公布的操演區"},{"start":170.267,"end":192.411,"text":"我們通通經過校正可是國防部是我們是非常肯定國軍能夠保持他的操演兵力就說都拒止在24里之外但是國防部標示出來的他的演習區跟中共發布的區域範圍如果用圖形比較套疊發現就是有不一樣的地方這個不談對錯所以產生的結果"},{"start":195.572,"end":223.265,"text":"我們根據CSIS對公布的馬上做了一篇左邊是中共發布的那麼右邊是我們國防部發布的所以範圍有所落差那麼如果以局裡面的角色來看把兩個圖套疊我們就知道內部我們的解釋為什麼要產生這個落差是因為是反制媒體戰或者是心理戰或者有其他的這個文攻武嚇他的作為可以幫忙做解套"},{"start":224.005,"end":238.36,"text":"所以精準圖資正確判斷智慧用兵要操之在我那下面呢我們就用方法論收斂的方法來解釋這次的演習我們先看東部戰區發言人講是他是檢驗戰區聯合作戰的實戰能力"},{"start":241.82,"end":264.514,"text":"演練的項目聯合凱空戰備警行、聯合奪取戰場、綜合控制權、聯合驚打要害目標等一體化的聯合作戰,這是在中共來講實際上是許多年度演習計劃的,這個並不代表是他的犯台計劃,但是是文攻武嚇的一個手段跟方法,所以我們看他的本質、特徵、核心、目標"},{"start":266.36,"end":269.613,"text":"他的基礎是什麼?他三個步驟以戰役規則實現整體的"},{"start":272.168,"end":272.868,"text":"以戰術的規則來驗證末端的監控"},{"start":299.509,"end":307.251,"text":"這次出來的部隊規模實際上並不大我們講到灰色地帶他這個執行聯合力艦2024A的他的原則是不設限沒有發布禁航區沒有影響到國際航道也沒有動手也沒有實彈射擊做海上的臨檢"},{"start":328.922,"end":346.851,"text":"那麼是統戰的策略灰色地帶的行動隔離封鎖、武力攻台三項行動這是他的念頭、他的想法將來會做常態不定期穿插行動就是變成四個New Normal常態化可是如果我們沒有一個共同的基礎圖像"},{"start":348.223,"end":368.303,"text":"不同的單位,比方講我們在國安會開會,國防部、國安局或者陸委會、外交部,你沒有一個共同圖像,是各個參謀提供你長官你的論述解答,就是論述方法你可能套疊出來的現象並不是一個coherent,不能夠統一的。"},{"start":369.656,"end":387.387,"text":"同樣就是我們常常講就是說對方利用灰色地帶行動,灰色地帶的行動基本上就是避免軍事衝突,但是威懾武嚇產生消耗型,無止境的消耗戰,那反過來檢討我們自己的灰色是什麼,第一個法律不周延"},{"start":389.083,"end":413.356,"text":"這個是1982年的聯合國海洋法公約第一版就是美國在海洋法公約裡面的執法的論述跟無害通過innocent passage跟我們中華民國的要求是不一致的那同樣對於南海的這個定義以我們的當年的政府的論述跟美方的解讀也有落差我不談對錯那至於呢"},{"start":414.537,"end":434.293,"text":"反介入與國際理論因為很多的國家包括我們的海軍現在都有這本叫CuseUnplanned Encounters at Sea那這個是Unclassified你都可以看得到所以利用這本裡面的內容透過魔法透過國防部"},{"start":436.462,"end":459.423,"text":"外交部以及陸委會大家對這上面有一個共同的認知我想對於局裡面對長期的情勢判斷是有幫助的那麼演習時間雖然只有兩天他是中央軍委會下面中部戰區檢視解放軍執行海空聯合戰備巡邏聯合奪取戰場綜合的控制以及聯合精準打擊的能力"},{"start":460.725,"end":485.277,"text":"他實在持續精進在練習但是不是犯台計劃那另外就是結合了海警這個執法行動聯合巡邏快速反應應變處理這個比較面臨挑戰就是我們講Law Enforcement我們的海巡署跟對方我們希望在Law End的部分還是要保持能夠對話溝通就像用Cuse一項所以我們看到"},{"start":487.062,"end":512.87,"text":"外面的一般的情報或者是公情或者媒體的報導講述的就是要全程演練奪島演練這是不正確的那實際上它是給我們不停的施壓那後面的科目也會不一樣所以它實際上做的是一種表象的認知認知作戰那我們就不要被認知作戰誤導去做誤判下面各位看這個"},{"start":516.204,"end":539.571,"text":"這個是國防部的公佈的圖實際上這個下面就是我們長年來面臨到的中共的文攻武嚇上兵伐謀不戰而屈人之逼其次伐交不只是斷你的國家的友邦同時包括你的海欄對外聯絡這個是communication那其次伐兵"},{"start":540.779,"end":567.404,"text":"就是消耗你的戰力去看看你的作戰計畫是不是周延完整最後才是所謂的攻擊兩棲進犯實際上他只是威者武嚇軍演困台持續利誘國際孤立美中角力的過程中持續施壓他希望動搖你的國家生存重心剛才很多同仁講到了就是說這個想定我們國家沒有想到那個想定沒有想到"},{"start":568.666,"end":583.917,"text":"我特別要提醒就是如果我們沒有一個JCOP如果由貴局來提供那麼在國安會層級包括行政院的國土安全部比方講現在所有的高壓電塔、超高壓配線"},{"start":584.918,"end":612.169,"text":"在辦公室有這些圖嗎?我相信他沒有電話協調的時候說龍崎的配電廠超高壓345千伏161千伏幾個變電器跳掉了什麼時候能夠修復?沒有人能回答國土辦也不會回答所以我們來看一下模擬的一個scenario我們今年在3月14、15以政大國關中心我在那邊是諮詢委員"},{"start":614.093,"end":615.274,"text":"這次中共所謂的用遠程的火箭兵、導彈"},{"start":635.578,"end":660.767,"text":"如果兩溪要進犯但是沒有做所有的演習的過程中間所謂的競為所及毀斷斷你這點真正他要目的是什麼呢就是在後面那個圈圈他的目標是在48小時、72小時貪玩你的民生社會結構、電力系統、燃油、海纜、通訊剛剛都講了銀行、金融性、飲水、化工、電子、空中運輸、地面運輸"},{"start":662.727,"end":689.574,"text":"醫療體系我們怎麼樣恢復可能貴局在這個題目上面集合大家把這個問題找出來在這個問題能夠找到最好的solution強化我們的社會韌性另外再來談國軍的防禦那這個東西我很願意跟貴局的這個研究人員做一個討論提供一個方法論因為這裡面還有結合資料庫如果大家只是取單一現象單一的scenario想定就來問問題"},{"start":691.154,"end":708.262,"text":"這個時候找不到一個解決的方案以上的這個東西請提供局長參考看局長有什麼意見謝謝委員提供非常專業對於這次共軍演習的分析那在整個的共軍演習的過程當中事實上就像委員剛所提到的重點是在於恫嚇"},{"start":709.022,"end":710.803,"text":"中共的認知作戰大概聚焦在幾個部分"},{"start":727.892,"end":728.713,"text":"謝謝委員提醒我們共同努力"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}