{"error":false,"id":["153235"],"data":{"IVOD_ID":153235,"IVOD_URL":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/153235","日期":"2024-05-29","會議資料":{"會議代碼":"委員會-11-1-35-22","會議代碼:str":"第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議","屆":11,"會期":1,"會次":22,"臨時會會次":null,"種類":"委員會","委員會代碼":[35],"委員會代碼:str":["外交及國防委員會"],"標題":"第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議"},"影片種類":"Clip","開始時間":"2024-05-29T10:46:51+08:00","結束時間":"2024-05-29T10:59:27+08:00","影片長度":"00:12:36","支援功能":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/2c978e04ca5e1331518b42509afc4e1674cb636d3605ada8a3ee6acdf2d5e987fa0e21df23cac89f5ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"王定宇","委員發言時間":"10:46:51 - 10:59:27","會議時間":"2024-05-29T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議（事由：邀請國家安全局局長蔡明彥、外交部、大陸委員會報告「第十六屆總統就職後國際暨兩岸情勢發展對我國安之影響」，並備質詢。）","gazette":{"lineno":381,"blocks":[["王委員定宇：（10時46分）謝謝主席，麻煩局長。"],["主席：請蔡局長。"],["蔡局長明彥：謝謝主席。王委員好。"],["王委員定宇：局長早。最近中國的軍演到了一個段落，有一些現象要請問一下國安局，在情報掌握上有沒有一些研析跟判斷。"],["蔡局長明彥：好。"],["王委員定宇：第一個，這個比較奇特，在中國對臺軍演期間，它有一艘4,463噸級的「聯合啟瑞號」在東海沉沒，那個區域是在它對臺軍演的區域外，大概在浙江舟山的東北角這個位置。這個拖船是半潛式的，它屬於定錨拖船，主要工作是在打撈或是拖重型的船隻，在5月24日7點02分它突然間大轉彎降速，然後大概花了1個小時的時間，AIS就不見了，國安局對這件事情有沒有一些判斷？它發生什麼事情？"],["蔡局長明彥：有，我們有注意到這件事情。"],["王委員定宇：國安局的研判是什麼？"],["蔡局長明彥：一來是時間的敏感性，二來是它沉沒的水域，正如委員所講的，我們在比對之後，發現它是在演習區域的外面。至於事故的原因，我們還在瞭解。"],["王委員定宇：這一艘是屬於支援型船隻，因為這種半沉潛式的船，四千多噸，當然中國還有更大型的軍規，它有它特定的功能，在那裡發生這件事情，連中國自己內部都在議論紛紛，所以國安局在情報的掌握上，有沒有判斷說這艘船到底出了什麼問題？"],["蔡局長明彥：原因我們還在瞭解。"],["王委員定宇：所以確實沉在那裡？"],["蔡局長明彥：是有這個沉船的事件。"],["王委員定宇：那這艘船沉船之後，中國那邊有沒有什麼異常的舉動？"],["蔡局長明彥：有，他們有進行相關的打撈。事實上，在稍……"],["王委員定宇：它好像管制了那個水域嘛？"],["蔡局長明彥：對，而且稍早之前，不只有這艘沉船，在我們的西南海域也有一架無人機掉下來，但它是屬於比較小型的科研無人機。"],["王委員定宇：屬於中國的無人機？"],["蔡局長明彥：對，他們有做海事的公告，就有掉無人機。"],["王委員定宇：那個無人機在我們的西南空域嘛？"],["蔡局長明彥：對。"],["王委員定宇：這個無人機應該是從船艦上起飛的，還是從陸地上起飛的？"],["蔡局長明彥：它是比較小型的無人機，可能3、4公尺翼寬的無人機。"],["王委員定宇：那應該是在船艦上起飛的。"],["蔡局長明彥：對，也有可能，然後他們也有派出海釣船來進行打撈的動作。"],["王委員定宇：因為海釣船、海測船、科研機，其實常常在軍事跟民間，科學之間那條線分不清楚啦！"],["蔡局長明彥：是。"],["王委員定宇：我們海底的水文、地形、地貌，其實都是重要的軍事資料。你剛才講的那一架無人機是在今天早上掉下來的？"],["蔡局長明彥：不、不、不，前幾天。"],["王委員定宇：前幾天掉下來。"],["蔡局長明彥：在演習之前就掉了？"],["王委員定宇：也是在演習當中嘛？"],["蔡局長明彥：演習前幾天掉了，但我們還是有注意到，我們還是有注意到這個資訊。"],["王委員定宇：那他們也是把那個區域……"],["蔡局長明彥：沒有封鎖，它就派海釣船到周邊去巡邏打撈。"],["王委員定宇：去把它找出來。"],["蔡局長明彥：對。"],["王委員定宇：所以你們目前還在判斷到底發生什麼事情？"],["蔡局長明彥：對。"],["王委員定宇：我問一個更早之前的，2023年8月22日，當時是英國的每日郵報引述了英國政府資訊，當然這個引述是否為真，我覺得要查證，但當時包含美國，包含英國，包含一些智庫的人說，中國一艘093型，也就是商級的核子動力潛艇，在他們黃海軍演的時候突然間不見了，然後在中國內部也傳出有一堆家屬說該回港了怎麼沒有休假，都沒回來，後來他們艦隊的司令也受到懲處，當然理由不會用這個當理由。當時也有美國專門測核訊號的偵察機貼近飛行到那個區域，這個是在2023年8月22日中共的黃海軍演，這一艘商級的093核子動力潛艇一直到現在，這件事情都沒有任何新的進度，至少我看到是沒有，國安局有沒有去瞭解這件事情？"],["蔡局長明彥：老實講，有瞭解啦！然後大概的判斷，應該不是嚴重的沉船事件，但有發生一些事故。"],["王委員定宇：有發生一些事情。"],["蔡局長明彥：因為這一艘船，093這一艘商級潛艦後續的位置我們都有掌握。"],["王委員定宇：OK，講到這裡就好了，你後面不能講太多。"],["蔡局長明彥：謝謝委員。"],["王委員定宇：事實上，中國對臺軍演，窮兵黷武，當然讓人家厭惡，任何威脅到我們家園的人，我們不會高興的。就像我們的住家，有人會去請保全，有人會設巡邏箱，有人會家戶聯防，有人是社區巡守隊，其實國家跟家園差不多，就是我們怕有流氓來威脅我們家嘛！所以怎麼提高自我防衛能力，怎麼樣提高預警能力，然後有狀況的時候有好鄰居可以來幫忙，有公權力可以介入。中國這樣子的灰色地帶的壓迫，或者是軍事威脅，從韓國、日本、臺灣到呂宋島、菲律賓，甚至連澳洲達爾文港的北邊都有發生類似的情形，所以這樣子的軍演損人不利己，中國想不開是它的事情，我們還是要做好自己的事情。","我接下來就教這一次的軍演，因為今天國防部沒有來，對於中國動用兵力的狀況，也就是規模、科目還有軍演的強度，國安局的評估是什麼？"],["蔡局長明彥：我們就兵力規模來看，並沒有比2023的「聯合利劍」或2022年8月裴洛西訪臺的聯合軍演來得大。規模上，兵力沒有……"],["王委員定宇：它這一次有沒有實彈？好像沒有。"],["蔡局長明彥：沒有實彈。"],["王委員定宇：沒有實彈啊？"],["蔡局長明彥：對，跟委員說明一下，它這一次沒有實彈……"],["王委員定宇：因為Pelosi那一次它還發射11枚，有2枚是在禁航上，5枚掉到日本的EEZ上面。"],["蔡局長明彥：對。"],["王委員定宇：所以這一次的規模、科目跟強度，我是要聽聽看國安局你們情報單位的分析。"],["蔡局長明彥：好。兵力規模沒有比較大，但範圍有比較廣，因為就裴洛西當時訪臺的軍演，大概劃了5個禁航區，這一次是有9個演訓區。"],["王委員定宇：有沒有禁航？"],["蔡局長明彥：沒有禁航。"],["王委員定宇：它沒有禁航。"],["蔡局長明彥：對，而且天數上也只有兩天，所以就整個運作的規模來講，沒有比前兩次來得更大，但是要注意的是，剛剛有提到，範圍比較大。第二個，它這一次是在5月23日早上7點45分宣布軍演之後，它就即時地啟動了軍演，它在展示它快速……"],["王委員定宇：快速動員能力。"],["蔡局長明彥：動員兵艦的能力，這一部分是要注意的。"],["王委員定宇：你剛才講的是強度，很明顯強度跟以往是不一樣的，但是規模呢？因為它是由東部戰區宣布的。"],["蔡局長明彥：對，是，規模沒有比較大。"],["王委員定宇：規模沒有比較大。"],["蔡局長明彥：是。"],["王委員定宇：所以動用的兵力也比較小？"],["蔡局長明彥：對，然後也沒有實彈的射擊，演習的天數也比較短。"],["王委員定宇：它增加的區域大概是……"],["蔡局長明彥：外離島。"],["王委員定宇：反介入拒止，還有一些外離島的部分嘛？"],["蔡局長明彥：是。"],["王委員定宇：那它在外離島的部分，有沒有什麼樣實質的軍事行動？"],["蔡局長明彥：有，主要是動用了海巡的編組、編隊，有在……"],["王委員定宇：他們的水警進入。"],["蔡局長明彥：對，有在外離島周邊做一些執法巡查的動作，這個是過去演習比較沒有的，因為第一次做。"],["王委員定宇：科目有沒有什麼不一樣？"],["蔡局長明彥：科目差不多，科目主要還是做聯合封控、聯合火力打擊、聯合拒止外軍以及聯合登陸作戰，但是在這一次的聯合登陸作戰，它投入的運作比較小，只有在東部有一個比較小規模的操演。"],["王委員定宇：所以你們判斷起來，它這一次的強度、規模、動用兵力都明顯比以往低，就國安局的研判，原因是什麼？軍事上的、政治上的，你們的研判是什麼？"],["蔡局長明彥：謝謝委員提到這個問題，在軍事上，我們剛剛講到有幾個特點，第一個特點是它快速地動員這一次的演習；第二個特點在於它動用了海警船隻的編隊來做相關的演訓；第三個特點，我剛剛也跟其他委員提到了，爭議訊息的操作在這兩天非常非常地頻密。"],["王委員定宇：非常高。"],["蔡局長明彥：這大概是在軍事上恫嚇的一個主要動作。"],["王委員定宇：不過現在從俄烏戰爭也看得出來，假錯訊息搞不好比飛彈先行，它會伴隨著，這個是hybrid warfare，混合作戰嘛！我請梁文傑副主委一起上來，我待會一併問，局長繼續說你們的判斷。"],["蔡局長明彥：這大概是這一次軍事演習主要的一個樣態，我們後續比較關注的是在於這種海上灰色地帶的操作會不會也變成是常態化，因為在東海以及在南海，中共的這些海警或公務船隻確實有這種海上灰色地帶的操作。"],["王委員定宇：你們政治上的判斷是什麼？"],["蔡局長明彥：政治上的判斷，我剛剛也跟委員提到，因為它這一次的演習時間比較短，然後沒有實彈，然後又沒有劃設禁航區，所以它也有在做一些必要的風險控管，做這個風險控管的目的是不希望情勢過度地激化或升高，而引發了國際社會更強力地支持臺灣。"],["王委員定宇：所以這一次有稍微比較克制一點。"],["蔡局長明彥：感覺上是這樣，對。"],["王委員定宇：局長先請回。我最後要請教梁文傑副主委，因為網友有整理了中共黨政軍，也就是他們的媒體，他們的媒體大概就是一條鞭啦！聲調都差不多，循著剛才的問題，從它這一次對臺軍演的規模、科目、強度不若以往，然後我們再看看它的黨政軍官媒的回應，陸委會怎麼評估中共在520我們總統交接之後的反應？你們有什麼樣的判斷？"],["梁副主任委員文傑：它的反應應該是逐步增強啦！就是說在520當天之後，當天晚上就由國臺辦發言人這邊來發出一個新聞稿，之後就是21日、22日連續的國臺辦的新聞稿，然後有人民日報的評論、新華社的評論等等，然後到23日就開始演習，所以……"],["王委員定宇：你剛剛講的逐步增強，是指520到524這個區間嘛？"],["梁副主任委員文傑：對。"],["王委員定宇：再後續我們陸委會的判斷呢？"],["梁副主任委員文傑：應該是這樣講，它的文攻跟武嚇的部分，基本上我們看到的是，到524之後算是有趨緩的現象，當然今天禮拜三是國臺辦的記者會，現在正在開，所以又開始做了一些批評，但是我們認為現在的這個批評大概就是重複上個禮拜的說法。"],["王委員定宇：國臺辦大概還是老調重彈，不過他不批評反而比較奇怪啦！但是剛才從國安局到陸委會，我聽到的就是你們認為這一次，它後來是趨緩或者用「克制」這兩個字，你們認為原因是什麼？"],["梁副主任委員文傑：我想這個軍演的目的，從他們理解賴總統的520講話，從他們的角度來講，他們的解讀是認為520的講話是他們不喜歡的，所以試圖以這樣來表示不滿，但是因為目前的兩岸局勢牽涉到非常多的因素，我認為他們是需要在一個可控的狀況之下。"],["王委員定宇：它要可控，我結束我這一段質詢，我認為要可控，跟國際的安全網絡、國際的因素有沒有關係？"],["梁副主任委員文傑：當然有關係，兩岸關係從來就是要放在國際的角度去理解。"],["王委員定宇：OK，這個問題我們有機會再繼續探討，但是我覺得這一個區間，519、520一直到524，還有後續的發展，我要提醒國安局跟相關單位，其實要好好去判斷它後續的發展，因為誤判是現代社會最大的風險。"],["梁副主任委員文傑：是。"],["王委員定宇：如果做好正確判斷，也許會有一些不一樣的機會，好，謝謝。"],["梁副主任委員文傑：謝謝。"],["主席（陳委員永康代）：下面請馬文君委員發言。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":54,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-35-22","speakers":["馬文君","羅美玲","洪申翰","陳永康","黃仁","陳冠廷","林楚茵","徐巧芯","王定宇","賴士葆","沈伯洋","王鴻薇","洪孟楷","張啓楷","林宜瑾","林憶君","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":1,"meetingDate":["2024-05-29"],"gazette_id":"1135301","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1135301_00002"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第1會期外交及國防委員會第22次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請國家安全局局長蔡明彥、外交部、大陸委員會報告「第十六屆總統就職後國際暨兩岸情勢發\n展對我國安之影響」，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1135301_00001"}},"transcript":{"pyannote":[{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":0.30096875,"end":2.0897187500000003},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":2.52846875,"end":3.3890937500000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":9.818468750000001,"end":10.98284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":10.493468750000002,"end":10.62846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":11.269718750000003,"end":12.332843750000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":13.78409375,"end":64.86471875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":40.37909375,"end":40.63221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":65.77596875,"end":69.08346875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":68.52659375,"end":70.63596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":69.92721875000001,"end":71.24346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":70.97346875000001,"end":82.81971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":73.31909375000001,"end":73.33596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":73.36971875,"end":73.85909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":80.84534375,"end":82.83659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":82.83659375,"end":82.88721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":82.88721875,"end":87.67971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":83.61284375000001,"end":83.84909375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":88.42221875,"end":97.90596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":98.54721875,"end":105.02721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":105.02721875,"end":105.24659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":105.24659375,"end":106.86659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":106.86659375,"end":106.95096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":106.95096875,"end":106.96784375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":106.96784375,"end":106.98471875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":106.98471875000001,"end":116.02971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":116.02971875,"end":116.56971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":116.56971875,"end":118.83096875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":116.67096875000001,"end":117.12659375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":118.54409375,"end":132.09471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":127.67346875000001,"end":128.23034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":130.89659375000002,"end":132.76971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":132.76971875,"end":132.95534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":132.95534375,"end":133.66409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":133.71471875,"end":139.72221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":133.84971875000002,"end":135.92534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":140.34659375,"end":142.03409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":142.03409375,"end":149.08784375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":144.02534375000002,"end":145.94909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":149.08784375000002,"end":163.90409375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":149.12159375000002,"end":149.40846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":155.14596875,"end":156.02346875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":157.76159375,"end":157.79534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":157.79534375,"end":158.36909375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":161.13659375,"end":161.52471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":163.36409375000002,"end":163.98846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":163.95471875,"end":167.75159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":167.59971875000002,"end":170.09721875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_02","start":16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這個比較奇特在中國的對台軍演期間"},{"start":29.835,"end":44.104,"text":"那他有一艘4463噸級的聯合起瑞號在東海沉沒那個區域是在他對台軍演的區域外大概在浙江的舟山的東北角這個位置"},{"start":44.904,"end":63.361,"text":"那這個拖船是半潛式的,它屬於錠毛拖船,那主要工作是在打撈或者是拖重型的船隻。那5月24號7點02分,它突然間大轉彎,降速,然後大概花了一個小時的時間AIS就不見了。"},{"start":65.814,"end":83.066,"text":"國安局對這個事情有沒有一些判斷?對,我們有注意到這件事情。對,一來是時間的敏感性,那二來是他沉默的水域,也正如委員所講的,我們在比對之後發現是他在演習的區域的外面。那至於事故的原因我們還在了解。這個是屬於資源型傳知,因為這種半層潛勢的船,"},{"start":88.456,"end":94.457,"text":"對,原因我們還在了解所以確實沉在那裡是有這個沉船的事件那他這個船沉船之後中國那邊有沒有什麼異常的局面有,他們有進行一些相關的打撈那事實上在"},{"start":117.523,"end":118.644,"text":"那這個無人機應該是從船艦上起飛的?"},{"start":140.387,"end":140.707,"text":"海底的水文"},{"start":161.401,"end":187.182,"text":"地形、地貌,那個其實都重要的軍事資料所以今天,你剛才講的那一架無人機是在今天早上掉下來?不不不,前幾天,在演習之前在演習當中嘛對,演習前幾天掉了,但我們還是有注意到,我們還是有注意到那他們也是把那個區域沒有封鎖,他就派海調船到周邊去巡邏,把他找出來所以你們現在目前還在判斷到底發生什麼事情?對那我問一個更早之前的啦2023年8月22號"},{"start":190.544,"end":214.812,"text":"當時是英國的每日郵報他引述了英國政府資訊當然這個引述是否為真我覺得要查證但當時包含美國包含英國包含一些智庫人說中國一艘093型也就是雙級的核子動力潛艇在他們黃海軍演的時候突然間不見了"},{"start":215.865,"end":231.152,"text":"然後呢也在中國內部傳出說一堆家屬說該回港了怎麼沒有休假都沒回來後來他們艦隊的司令也受到懲處當然理由不會用這個當理由當時也有美國的專門測核訊號的"},{"start":234.454,"end":253.61,"text":"相關的偵察機貼近飛行到那個區域那個是在2023年8月22號中共的黃海軍演這一艘商級的093核子動力潛艇後來一直到現在這件事情都沒有任何新的進度至少我看到的是沒有國安局有沒有去了解這個事情"},{"start":255.063,"end":270.46,"text":"好,老實講有啦,有了解啦。然後,大概的判斷是,應該不是嚴重的沉船事件,但有發生一些事故。因為這艘船,動九山的這艘商級潛艦,它的後續的位置我們都有掌握。"},{"start":271.841,"end":300.524,"text":"講到這裡就好了,你後面不能講太多所以事實上中國對台軍演窮兵獨舞當然讓人家厭惡任何人威脅到我們家園的人,我們不會高興的就像我們在住家的時候有人會去擒保權,有人會設巡邏箱有人會加護聯防,有人會設區巡守隊其實國家跟家園差不多就是我們怕有流氓來威脅我們家嘛所以怎麼提高自我防衛能力"},{"start":301.224,"end":324.163,"text":"怎麼樣提高預警能力然後有狀況的時候有好鄰居可以來幫忙有公權力可以介入中國這樣子的灰色地帶的壓迫或者是軍事威脅從韓國、日本、台灣到旅送島、菲律賓甚至連澳洲的達爾文港的北邊都有發生類似的情形所以"},{"start":325.264,"end":346.309,"text":"這樣子的軍演損人不利己那中國想不開他的事情我們還是要做好這件事情我接下來就教這一次的軍演因為我們今天國防部沒有來那中國動用兵力的狀況也就是說規模科目還有他軍演的強度國安局的評估是什麼"},{"start":347.157,"end":370.688,"text":"對,我們就兵力規模來看,並沒有比2023的聯合力艦或2022八月的培洛西訪台的聯合軍演來的大。他這一次有沒有實彈?好像沒有。沒有實彈。沒有實彈啊?對,跟我們說明一下,他這一次沒有實彈。因為俄羅斯那一次,他還發射11枚有2枚在架上,9枚就掉到,5枚掉到日本的EEZ上面。"},{"start":372.368,"end":377.551,"text":"這次的規模、科目跟強度,我是要聽聽國安局你們情報單位的分析。兵力規模沒有比較大,範圍有比較廣,因為就裴若曦當時訪台的軍演大概劃了五個所謂的進航區,那這一次是有九個的演訓區。"},{"start":391.598,"end":392.318,"text":"所以你剛才講的是強度"},{"start":417.392,"end":442.298,"text":"看很明顯強度跟以往是不一樣的但是規模呢?因為它是由東部戰區宣布的規模沒有比較大所以動用的兵力也比較小對,然後也沒有實彈的射擊那演習的天數也比較短它增加的區域大概是外離島反介入、拒止還有一些外離島的部分那它在外離島的部分有沒有什麼樣實質的軍事行動?"},{"start":444.338,"end":473.368,"text":"主要是動用了海巡的編組編隊有在外離島周邊做一些所謂的執法巡查的動作所以這是比起過去演習比較沒有科目有沒有什麼不一樣科目差不多科目主要還是做聯合封控聯合火力打擊聯合的巨子外軍以及聯合登陸作戰但是在這一次的聯合登陸作戰他投入的這個運作比較小只有在東部有一個比較小規模的操演"},{"start":473.988,"end":482.724,"text":"所以你們判斷起來他這一次的強度規模動用兵力都明顯比以往低就國安局的研判"},{"start":486.53,"end":508.644,"text":"對,謝謝委員提到這個問題,就是說在軍事上我們剛剛講到有幾個特點,第一個特點是他快速地動員這次的演習,第二個特點是在於他動用了海警船隻的編隊來做相關的演訓,那第三個特點我剛才也跟其他委員提到了,爭議訊息的操作在這兩天非常非常的頻密,那這大概是在軍事上恫嚇的一個主要的動作,"},{"start":509.104,"end":537.538,"text":"我現在從俄烏戰爭也看得出來假錯訊息搞不好比飛彈先行是它會伴隨著這個是hybrid warfare是是是作戰嘛我請梁文傑副主委一起上來我待會也一定問啦所以你們的判斷你繼續說對那這大概是這一次軍事演習的主要的一個樣態那我們後續會比較關注的是在於這種海上灰色地帶的操作會不會也變成是常態化因為在東海以及在南海"},{"start":537.938,"end":565.854,"text":"那中共的這些海警或公務船隻他確實有這種海涉岸灰色地帶的操作你們政治上的判斷是什麼政治上的判斷我剛也跟委員提到因為他這一次的演習的時間比較短然後沒有實彈然後又沒有化射進航區所以他也有在做一些必要的風險的控管那做這個風險控管的目的是不希望情勢過度的激化或升高而引發了國際社會更強力的支持台灣所以這一次有稍微比較克制一點感覺上是這樣"},{"start":566.674,"end":585.069,"text":"對那個梁文傑副主委就是說這一次那個局長可以先請回啦我最後請教因為我這邊這個網友也整理了中共黨政軍也就是他們的媒體他媒體大概就是一條一條邊啦大概聲量那個聲調都差不多啦剛才循著剛才的問題從他這一次"},{"start":587.451,"end":602.058,"text":"對臺軍演的規模、科目強度不若以往然後我們再看看他的黨政軍官媒的回應陸委會怎麼評估中共在520我們總統交接之後他的反應你們有什麼樣判斷"},{"start":604.807,"end":619.575,"text":"他的反應應該是逐步增強的就是說在520當天之後然後當天晚上應該是就由國台辦發言人這邊來發出一個新聞稿那之後就是21號、22號"},{"start":625.188,"end":650.864,"text":"連續的國台辦的新聞稿然後有人民日報的評論新華社的評論等等然後到23號就開始演習那所以你剛才講的逐步增強是指這個區間嗎520到524嗎對那在後續我們陸委會的判斷呢應該是這樣講就是說它的文攻跟武嚇的部分基本上我們看到的是到524之後"},{"start":652.848,"end":677.316,"text":"算是有趨緩的現象那當然今天禮拜三是國台辦的記者會現在正在開那所以又開始做了一些批評但是我們認為現在的這個批評大概就是重複上個禮拜的國台辦大概還是老調重談不過他不批評反而比較奇怪但我剛才從國安局到陸委會"},{"start":678.657,"end":685.651,"text":"聽到了就是認為這一次他後來是趨緩或者用克制這兩個字是你們認為原因是什麼"},{"start":687.118,"end":713.173,"text":"我想他的這個軍演的目的當然是屬於對他就是從他們理解的這個賴總統的520講話他們是對他從他們的角度來講他們的解讀是認為520的講話是他們不喜歡的那所以試圖要這樣來表示不滿但是因為目前的兩岸局勢他牽涉到非常多的因素所以這個"},{"start":715.854,"end":734.46,"text":"我認為他們是需要在一個可控的狀況之下他要可控我結束我這一段質詢要可控跟國際的安全網絡國際的因素有沒有關係當然有關係兩岸關係從來就是要放在國際的角度去理解的這個問題我們有機會繼續探討但是我覺得這一個區間519、520一直到524還有後續的發展"},{"start":741.843,"end":754.56,"text":"我要提醒國安局跟相關單位其實要好好去判斷它後續的發展因為誤判是現代社會最大的風險如果做好正確判斷也許會有一些不一樣的機會好 謝謝"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}