{"error":false,"id":["153680"],"data":{"IVOD_ID":153680,"IVOD_URL":"https://ivod.ly.gov.tw/Play/Clip/1M/153680","日期":"2024-06-06","會議資料":{"會議代碼":"委員會-11-1-20-16","會議代碼:str":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第16次全體委員會議","屆":11,"會期":1,"會次":16,"臨時會會次":null,"種類":"委員會","委員會代碼":[20],"委員會代碼:str":["財政委員會"],"標題":"第11屆第1會期財政委員會第16次全體委員會議"},"影片種類":"Clip","開始時間":"2024-06-06T09:24:30+08:00","結束時間":"2024-06-06T09:35:13+08:00","影片長度":"00:10:43","支援功能":["ai-transcript","gazette"],"video_url":"https://ivod-lyvod.cdn.hinet.net/vod_1/_definst_/mp4:1MClips/0d7b1f4370c473d5ecdca68d8dce2f642248f66a23a11b538282b1d5b897dd1c0d19e8fa393994795ea18f28b6918d91.mp4/playlist.m3u8","委員名稱":"吳秉叡","委員發言時間":"09:24:30 - 09:35:13","會議時間":"2024-06-06T09:00:00+08:00","會議名稱":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第16次全體委員會議（事由：邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「日圓貶值效應會否導致亞洲貨幣競貶，及對台灣經濟影響」進行專題報告，並備質詢；另邀請經濟部列席備詢。\n【6月3日及6日二天一次會】）","gazette":{"lineno":112,"blocks":[["吳委員秉叡：（9時24分）主席，麻煩請央行楊總裁。"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：吳委員早。"],["吳委員秉叡：總裁早。剛剛我有在底下聆聽了您的意見，其實把全國國民的財富用五等分，分成20%，然後以最低的20%，去比較他們之間的倍數，很少國家這樣做，因為有一個理論說有很多國家最低的20%是minus，minus跟正數怎麼比？那就是無限大倍。但是臺灣因為最低五等分的家庭儲蓄有77萬，當然最上面的20%平均是一千多萬，快要2,000萬，所以比起來有六十幾倍的差距。這樣子計算到底合不合理？跟全世界比較起來，是不是臺灣真的貧富差距非常懸殊？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，基本上，據我的瞭解，我們應該是還好，臺灣還……"],["吳委員秉叡：就以吉尼係數來講也還好。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，我們還好。第二個，雖然我們還好，但是貧富不均的比例稍微有提升，這個是比較……"],["吳委員秉叡：這個我想是全球化之後通常的現象。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，委員講的沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：我在想的是這樣子，你剛剛也有提到，如何讓經濟最困難的這些人可以有尊嚴的生活下去？這個就要靠稅賦跟社會福利救助，其實這是在建構社會基層的安全網，要托住最底層的人，不能使這個網破掉，讓他往下墜落。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，委員講的我非常同意，我認同。"],["吳委員秉叡：你剛剛講的社會救助是一個現代化國家……尤其臺灣的社會安全網、社會救助做得不錯，當然還可以繼續精進，繼續往好的方向做，重要的是不要漏掉哪一部分的人。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：你說在民主國家，在我們這樣的環境要強求壓制所有的人，把富人壓制下來跟大家平均，讓倍數不要變大，我覺得這個不是好方法。有能力的人、願意努力的人，或是有機運的人得到比較好的收入，政府用比較高的稅收彌補。再來，對於機運不好或是原來的資本就不夠，使得他在這個社會必須靠勞力賺錢等等，生活有困難或是有疾病等等因素，你要用社會安全網把他托住，讓他足以繼續生活，讓他以及他的下一代將來在這個社會還可以增長，甚至有翻轉的機會。我想這個才是國家應該走的路，而不是為了美化數字，為了不要這樣子，所以把有錢人的財產都壓低下來，這樣倍數就少了，講起來好像這樣子就達到貧富平均了，不要強求貧富平均。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，我同意委員的看法。"],["吳委員秉叡：而是要用一個最基層的社會安全網把他托住，這是我基本的理念。"],["楊總裁金龍：要讓整個社會能夠進步，然後要截長補短，對於前面這一端，我們在稅率上看看怎麼合理地徵收，然後補助最下層的人。"],["吳委員秉叡：簡單講，用一句話說就是國家應該要把舞台布置好，讓有能力的人精彩地發揮，際遇比較不好的人也不要墜落舞臺，我覺得應該要採這樣的理念。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：我們就回到今天的主題，日本的貨幣寬鬆是安倍三箭，我個人比較主觀的認為，日幣兌美元貶值是有意的、故意做的，不是因為貿易的習慣，不然不可能突然從七十幾塊一直貶到150。我覺得這裡面有政府刻意引導，這當然是日本自己為了國家經濟上的需要，所以日本政府做了選擇。當美元的利率這麼高的時候，日幣還在貨幣寬鬆，當然這個影響很大，如果他們不要量化寬鬆就不會貶得這麼快。我個人觀察，它的目的是希望讓日本的製造業也有機會回流日本。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，委員說得沒錯，我也滿同意的。"],["吳委員秉叡：而且我們以前在這個地方跟你請教過一個觀念，一個國家的CPI為0是不好的，0是通縮。剛剛看你報告裡面的表，有沒有？日本那些年的CPI很低，甚至minus，結果整個國家的經濟就在通貨緊縮的狀況。以前跟你談過一個概念，你也很認可，CPI在2左右是好的，如果低於1有通縮的危險，高於3當然就不好，是很快的通貨膨脹。我們覺得觀念要矯正，不要讓錯誤的觀念一直流傳，CPI是正的就把它講成不好，其實臺灣今年如果能夠控制到二點零幾就了不起。"],["楊總裁金龍：還可以。"],["吳委員秉叡：正好是國家……我認為就一個經濟體來講，CPI是2代表穩定並稍微擴張，這是很合理的事情。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：老是講物價膨脹怎麼樣怎麼樣。我媽媽跟我講，他民國51年結婚的時候，我們吃的剉冰一碗5角，現在動輒一、二百，對不對？好一點的還不止，但是至少近100塊。國家的經濟在成長的過程中，有適度的通膨逐年累積是正常現象。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，委員講的沒有錯。基本上，物價在上漲，物價雖然上漲，但是它的品質……剛剛委員講以前的剉冰5角，現在的剉冰100、200塊，但是你看看它的料跟以前的料比較，現在裡面的東西比以前好得多。也就是說，物價雖然上漲了，但是它的品質也提升很多。"],["吳委員秉叡：好，我現在講一個……你這個觀點我也贊成，但是也有物料比較沒有變化的……像豬肉的變化很大，對不對？豬肉以前一斤多少錢，現在多少錢？那個看年代就知道了。","好，我講另外一個現在被猜測可能遇到的問題。現在中國都傾銷，所以歐洲、美國等大的經濟體可能會對它實施關稅制裁，加它的關稅或是對它進行傾銷調查。有人說中國對這一招還有一招可以抵抗，就是讓人民幣貶值。美國假設加它10%的關稅、加它20%的關稅，它把人民幣貶值之後，就國際貿易來講，去中國購買這些貨品的價格是一樣的，對不對？因為美國的關稅加20%，它如果對美金貶值20%，以購買者而言，加上關稅之後的價格跟現在是一樣的，所以有人猜測人民幣很可能會貶值，而且會在一定的時間內快速貶值，不知道你的看法怎麼樣？"],["楊總裁金龍：基本上，就我們目前的觀察，人民幣不大敢貶值，為什麼呢？因為第一個，它有外債，貨幣貶值的時候外債會更多，因為它的廠商……不是它國家的外債，而是它的廠對國外借錢。第二個，它的capital outflows。如果它貶的時候，也有可能加速資本外流，它有一點怕。你看看我們也仔細觀察，所以在我們這個報告裡面也有談到，事實上，它現在也是有一點阻貶。也就是說，貶當然是人家一般所講的，是雙面刃，有些時候在這邊是好的，可是那一邊卻不好，所以兩害相權，看看是哪一個，但是它目前是採不讓貨幣太貶的立場。"],["吳委員秉叡：我瞭解，因為美國跟歐洲加關稅不是現在，是未來。"],["楊總裁金龍：對啦！"],["吳委員秉叡：加了關稅之後，因為中國是控制匯率的國家，它有可能在一夕之間突然宣布貶10%，我講的是有可能出現狀況。"],["楊總裁金龍：委員，你這樣講，事實上，我們都會密切注意……"],["吳委員秉叡：對，我就是要提醒你們，這個也要考慮在內，因為這個都會影響到國際間的貿易公平性以及臺灣如何穩定，我們在這麼多風浪中求穩定，這是一個很重要的價值。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：這也是一個很好的價值，就是央行到現在一直都做得很不錯的部分，好不好？繼續加油。"],["楊總裁金龍：好，謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝。下一位質詢請賴士葆委員。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":274,"meet_id":"委員會-11-1-20-16","speakers":["羅明才","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","賴惠員","顏寬恒","李彥秀","王鴻薇","李坤城","黃珊珊","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","王世堅","羅明才","林楚茵","廖先翔","謝衣鳯","葉元之","陳玉珍"],"page_start":229,"meetingDate":["2024-06-06"],"gazette_id":"1135801","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1135801_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第1會期財政委員會第16次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「日圓貶值效應會否導致亞洲貨幣競貶，及對台灣經濟影響」進行\n專題報告，並備質詢；另邀請經濟部列席備詢","agenda_id":"1135801_00003"}},"transcript":{"pyannote":[{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":3.40596875,"end":5.599718750000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":5.970968750000001,"end":6.814718750000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":7.16909375,"end":7.40534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":12.484718750000003,"end":12.501593750000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":12.501593750000001,"end":14.459093750000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":14.745968750000003,"end":17.715968750000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":17.56409375,"end":17.96909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":18.22221875,"end":18.69471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":18.99846875,"end":19.80846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":20.28096875,"end":33.03846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":33.10596875,"end":41.84721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":40.767218750000005,"end":41.37471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":41.84721875,"end":41.89784375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":41.89784375,"end":41.914718750000006},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":41.914718750000006,"end":43.02846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":42.775343750000005,"end":46.58909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":47.16284375,"end":48.86721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":48.91784375,"end":49.407218750000006},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":49.407218750000006,"end":56.359718750000006},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":52.91721875,"end":53.322218750000005},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":54.31784375,"end":54.75659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":56.359718750000006,"end":56.56221875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":56.56221875000001,"end":64.17284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":64.25721875,"end":64.35846875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":64.35846875,"end":73.77471875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":64.40909375,"end":65.55659375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":74.53409375000001,"end":87.47721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":74.63534375,"end":75.47909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":76.03596875000001,"end":77.30159375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":87.74721875,"end":94.58159375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":91.62846875000001,"end":120.02909375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":94.61534375000001,"end":94.83471875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":116.63721875,"end":117.14346875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":120.02909375,"end":120.04596875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":120.04596875000001,"end":120.07971875000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":120.07971875000001,"end":125.96909375000001},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":125.96909375000001,"end":142.06784375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":134.33909375000002,"end":134.62596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":141.74721875,"end":142.03409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":142.06784375,"end":143.13096875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":143.13096875000002,"end":156.88409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":155.46659375000002,"end":155.55096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":155.56784375,"end":155.68596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":156.88409375,"end":157.54221875000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":157.54221875000002,"end":166.24971875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":165.01784375,"end":165.27096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":166.40159375000002,"end":188.62596875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":166.46909375,"end":166.62096875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":181.63971875000001,"end":181.69034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":183.24284375000002,"end":183.46221875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":188.94659375,"end":189.28409375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":189.48659375000003,"end":191.07284375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":191.34284375000001,"end":191.81534375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":193.06409375,"end":197.45159375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":197.48534375,"end":197.51909375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":197.51909375000002,"end":197.89034375},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_01","start":197.78909375,"end":213.02721875},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","start":210.98534375000003,"end":211.15409375000002},{"speaker":"SPEAKER_00","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text":"那這個目的我個人來觀察是希望讓日本的製造業也有機會回流日本對 委員說的沒錯 我也蠻同意的而且我們以前在這個地方請教過一個觀念一個國家的CPI"},{"start":319.147,"end":332.251,"text":"零是不好的捏,零是通縮捏,你剛剛看你的表裏面,你的報告表裏面有沒有,日本那些年的CPI很低啊,甚至Mainas啊,結果整個國家的經濟就在通縮,通貨緊縮的狀況。"},{"start":334.292,"end":360.161,"text":"以前跟你談過的概念你也很認可就是CPI在2左右是好的那如果低於1是有通縮的危險高於3那當然就不好了那就是很快的通貨膨脹所以我們覺得觀念要矯正不要讓錯誤的觀念一直流傳說有CPI是正的好像就把它講成不好其實台灣如果今年能夠控制在2.0幾"},{"start":362.422,"end":365.843,"text":"我媽媽跟我講他民國51年結婚的時候他那時候一碗剉冰一碗五角"},{"start":387.791,"end":413.443,"text":"現在動輒一兩百嘛對不對好一點的還不止欸但是至少也近百塊嘛所以就以經濟國家經濟在成長在戰場的過程中有四度的通膨逐年累積是正常現象是是委員講的沒有錯啦基本上呢我們又說物價在上漲事實上呢物價雖然也在上漲但是呢它的品質啊"},{"start":413.963,"end":442.098,"text":"我剛剛那個委員在講說以前的那個剉冰五角跟現在的剉冰一百塊兩百塊但是呢你要想想看現在的剉冰一百塊兩百塊但是它的料你來看看它的料跟以前的料來比較的話現在的料是它的裡面的那個東西啊是比以前好得多也就是說物價雖然上漲了但是呢它的品質啊也提升了很多那我現在講一個"},{"start":443.183,"end":457.534,"text":"吳秉叡吳秉叡吳秉叡吳秉叡吳秉叡"},{"start":457.947,"end":480.653,"text":"被猜測可能遇到的問題現在中國的因為他現在都是傾銷所以歐洲美國這個大的經濟體可能會對他實施關稅的制裁加他的關稅或是對他的傾銷調查有人說中國對這一招他還有一招可以抵抗就是把人民幣貶值"},{"start":482.573,"end":501.77,"text":"你現在美國假設加他10%的關稅加到20%的關稅他把人民幣也貶值的時候就國際貿易來講去他中國那邊購買這些貨品價格是一樣的啊對不對美國的關稅加20%他如果對美金貶值20%那就就以購買者而言他"},{"start":503.772,"end":525.598,"text":"加上關稅之後的價格跟現在是一樣的所以就有人在猜測說人民幣可能會貶值而且會在一定的時間內會快速貶值這個不知道你的看法怎麼樣我跟委員報告基本上就我們目前在觀察人民幣它不大敢貶值"},{"start":528.599,"end":545.056,"text":"為什麼呢?因為第一個他有外債外債你貶值的時候外債會更多因為他的廠商我就說不是他國家的外債而是他的廠對國外那個什麼借錢那第二個呢他的capital outflows"},{"start":546.014,"end":569.902,"text":"如果說他貶的時候也有可能會加速他的資本的外流他有一點怕所以你看看我們也仔細所以在我們這個報告裡面我們也有談到他事實上他現在也是有一點主貶所以也就是說貶當然是人家一般所講的雙面刃"},{"start":573.783,"end":574.184,"text":"我瞭解因為"},{"start":588.68,"end":610.636,"text":"美國跟歐洲的加關稅不是現在是未來嘛那加了關稅之後因為中國是一個匯率他控制的國家他有可能在一夕之間突然之間宣布貶10%我講的是有可能的狀況所以呢委員你這講事實上我們都會密切注意對我就說提醒說這個也要考慮在內因為這個都會影響到"},{"start":612.957,"end":630.333,"text":"國際之間的貿易公平性以及台灣的日歐穩定我們在這個這麼多的風浪中求穩定這是一個很重要的價值是是是沒有錯這也是一個很好的價值這是央行央行你們一直到現在一直都做得很不錯的部分是謝謝謝謝好不好繼續加油好謝謝謝謝好謝謝下一位質詢請賴世保賴委員"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}