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crisis他所做的一個措施也是有類似的一個做法所以中國大陸他現在面臨的一些的問題國內的一些內需還有通說剛剛委員所說的他是希望在貨幣政策跟財政政策"},{"start":93.871,"end":122.746,"text":"特別是這兩個因為這兩個也許會速度會比較快至於就是說結構性的改變那可能要很慢所以他這兩個他要實施那實施這個事實上是不是能夠達到這個效果有些時候我們可以拭目以待我們也可以看看就像日本日本的時候他也是非常寬鬆的貨幣政策但是他到最後他也要經過10年20年甚至現在30年他慢慢再上來了"},{"start":123.266,"end":143.798,"text":"有人說中國的狀況比日本更嚴重日本雖然這個有所謂的失落了30年那他的泡沫經濟破裂但是日本的產業很多是外移到全世界其他地方去投資所以他是有辦法還有維持住日本財富的元氣可是中國這種"},{"start":145.419,"end":145.439,"text":"吳明環"},{"start":159.96,"end":160.2,"text":"對,沒有錯是"},{"start":176.88,"end":178.661,"text":"議員提起很多的關稅或是對於他個別產品請消的這個反請消的這個特別關稅甚至"},{"start":200.808,"end":216.515,"text":"美國總統在三個禮拜就要選了川普如果當選宣稱中國所有的貨物至少都要60%以上的關稅是是那這個對全球化當然是不是一件好事啦對對那這就是大家又提高了自己關稅的"},{"start":218.166,"end":234.787,"text":"﹗"},{"start":235.067,"end":264.162,"text":"這中間應該有一個合理的調控就他沒有他的生產管生產然後計劃經濟我反正生產我要到達多少目標你看現在全世界的大宗物資尤其是傳產的幾乎都被中國修理這個這麼慘可是在這樣的狀況之下中國的房地產崩潰中國的通貨緊縮用大水漫灌五毛印鈔的方法的財政手段跟這個金跟這個金融的手段就試圖要去拉伸"},{"start":265.715,"end":281.893,"text":"總裁坦白講我個人認為是悲觀啦他這個短期效果或許上海A股你短期時間中國硬是要撐住他讓他上漲但是他的歷史過程大家都注意在看"},{"start":283.22,"end":307.743,"text":"他因為用上海A股要上場的過程中吸引了非常多20幾歲30歲的年輕人到網路上P2P的借貸然後到銀行去信用貸款就衝進去股市結果現在大量套牢啊結果這些年輕人他的信用就等於就是破產了嘛所以"},{"start":309.918,"end":330.855,"text":"這個亂象我們看在眼裡但是我們要他山之石可以攻錯不好的例子我們也要學我們要知道說這是不可以的所以過度的宣傳因為現在網路很厲害過度的宣傳或是過度的政府做多都有可能會引起這種亂象"},{"start":334.213,"end":351.775,"text":"就你的觀點來看,未來要如何收拾?報告委員,我總覺得那個委員講到這個貨幣政策的時候我也深感同意就是說貨幣政策的一個實施要非常的謹慎"},{"start":352.756,"end":352.876,"text":"主席"},{"start":380.077,"end":403.217,"text":"議員．"},{"start":403.657,"end":431.017,"text":"四萬點然後日本最近這幾個月其實開始出現通膨的狀況所以他是要打算應該要緊縮貨幣所以有一陣子日幣升值到對美金一百四十幾塊對一美元但最近又掉下來又掉到一百五十幾所以也不見得說政府的主觀的想法就能夠去完全的引導這樣的貨幣貨幣的狀況因為大家如果在全世界裡面"},{"start":431.758,"end":434.381,"text":"日本的狀況現在就是說他一直在強調的就是說他的一個薪資跟通膨要良性的循環"},{"start":452.92,"end":480.262,"text":"現在也就是說他的通膨上漲的時候他的薪資也能夠比這個通膨來得高但是現在就是說看起來有幾季有一段時間是有這樣子但是他還是沒辦法去確定是不是這個良性的循環是不是已經完成了所以他現在也是在密切的關注當中所以你剛剛的講話就看到台灣"},{"start":481.363,"end":507.817,"text":"台灣這幾年每一年都提高基本工資然後甚至也有幾年連軍公教的薪水也調漲當然今年預算在審查還沒有過我們不能夠保證明年1月1日就一定能夠調升我們軍公教的薪水預算如果審查通過才可以但是就是回到剛剛這個問題我們的基本工資的調升以及軍公教薪水的調升其實也都會帶動CPI的上漲"},{"start":508.997,"end":535.07,"text":"只是那個比例你認為這樣是不是適當?是因為這個比例是不高的對,如果說就工資來講的話工資跟那個公教人員的上帳公教人員上帳對我們CPI的影響不是很大就0.0幾而已主要的還是在基本工資因為工資會影響到它的一個經營的成本然後轉嫁給消費者不過呢整個來"},{"start":535.99,"end":536.05,"text":"吳明明年"},{"start":552.421,"end":564.798,"text":"就剛剛講的CPI的上漲裡面包括基本工資的調漲軍工教的調漲另外我們今年年底開始要開始討論碳稅那也有一部分碳稅要開徵這幾個都是導致CPI會上漲的因素"},{"start":568.243,"end":583.949,"text":"那在這樣的累加之下你有信心明年的CPI只有到1.8級嗎?我們暫時目前我們的估測是這樣子的不過我們會慢慢的因為我們每季每季都會做一些的調整我們會密切的注意它"},{"start":584.589,"end":600.716,"text":"對,那另外就是說我們最近也有花了一些錢在控制我們的購買美金啊控制我們的幣值的穩定這穩定在這是很好但是你知道美國用三個標準在看待我們有沒有操縱這個匯率那我們每一年都有兩個"},{"start":602.597,"end":619.03,"text":"還是要跟美國加強溝通嗎?我們會。我們會。我們持續跟美國財政部的互動非常良好。總裁我覺得你能夠把財政政策做得這樣穩健我是很欽佩。希望能夠繼續努力。是一個很好的總裁。謝謝。謝謝秉瑞。那接著請陳益臻委員質詢。"},{"start":633.323,"end":633.622,"text":"正式報告．"}]},"gazette":{"lineno":95,"blocks":[["吳委員秉叡：（9時24分）主席，麻煩請央行楊總裁。"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：吳委員早。"],["吳委員秉叡：總裁早。我們海峽對岸的中國，經濟狀況非常地糟糕，從各種亂象看到他其實就是已經在一個通貨緊縮的狀況。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以他最近用非常大的力道，資金超級寬鬆，等於是央行拆借大量的資金給銀行，然後銀行可以讓這些上市公司的經營者跟大股東可以買入股票，然後再質借、然後再買，就是可以循環的加倍槓桿，加上他又宣布三年內要印6兆元人民幣的長期國債等等各種跡象，他的貨幣政策已經是沒有定錨了，他現在高興印多少就印多少，這個會造成什麼樣的影響？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，事實上很多的國家，包括美國當時在financial 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sure、去確定這個良性的循環是不是已經完成了，所以它現在也是在密切地關注當中。"],["吳委員秉叡：對，就由你剛剛的講話就看到臺灣，臺灣這幾年每一年都提高基本工資，甚至也有幾年連軍公教的薪水也調漲，當然今年預算在審查還沒有過，我們不能夠保證明年1月1號就一定能夠調升我們軍公教的薪水，預算如果審查通過才可以。回到剛剛這個問題，我們的基本工資的調升以及軍公教薪水的調升，其實也都會帶動CPI的上漲，只是那個比例你認為這樣子適不適當，因為這個比例是不高的。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，如果說就工資來講的話，工資跟公教人員薪資的上漲，公教人員的薪資上漲對我們CPI的影響不是很大，就零點零幾而已，主要還是在基本工資，因為工資會影響到經營的成本然後轉嫁給消費者。不過整個來評估一下的話，它也是差不多零點一幾而已，所以基本上不會……"],["吳委員秉叡：你剛剛的報告說你對明年CPI的預測是1.8。"],["楊總裁金龍：1.89。"],["吳委員秉叡：一點八多，這是一個很好的數字，但是明年，就剛剛講的CPI的上漲裡面包括基本工資的調漲、軍公教薪資的調漲，另外我們今年年底要開始討論碳稅，也有一部分碳稅要開徵，這幾個都是導致CPI上漲的因素，在這樣的累加之下，你有信心明年的CPI只有到一點八幾嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：目前我們的估測暫時是這樣子，不過我們會慢慢地……因為我們每季、每季都會做一些調整，我們會密切地注意它。"],["吳委員秉叡：對，另外就是我們最近也有花了一些錢在購買美金、控制我們幣值的穩定，穩定是很好，但是你知道美國用三個標準在看待我們有沒有操縱匯率。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：我們每一年都有兩個，還是要跟美國加強溝通。"],["楊總裁金龍：我們會，我們持續，我們跟美國財政部的互動非常良好。"],["吳委員秉叡：總裁，我覺得你能夠把財政政策做得這樣穩健，我是很欽佩，希望能夠繼續努力。"],["楊總裁金龍：好，謝謝。"],["吳委員秉叡：是一個很好的總裁，謝謝。"],["楊總裁金龍：好，謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝秉叡。","接著請陳玉珍委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":388,"meet_id":"委員會-11-2-20-2","speakers":["賴惠員","林德福","吳秉叡","陳玉珍","賴士葆","郭國文","李彥秀","李坤城","顏寬恒","王世堅","黃珊珊","羅明才","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","邱志偉","王鴻薇","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":341,"meetingDate":["2024-10-17"],"gazette_id":"1138501","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1138501_00006"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第2會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"一、邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並\n備質詢；二、邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「第七波選擇性信用管制之配套措施」進行專題報告，\n並備質詢","agenda_id":"1138501_00005"}}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}