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們是用2020年就是我們COVID-19之前那一年做基期然後呢來看看我們的到2023年的經濟的成長率因為我時間有限了那個總裁你講這麼多是不是隱約我感覺到你的無奈"},{"start":536.41,"end":539.792,"text":"我...我...我...我...我...我...我...我...我...我...我...我...我...我...我...我...我..."},{"start":561.591,"end":568.698,"text":"還是不服氣的接受?還是含怨接受?含恨接受?我們虛心檢討,含怨接受,永遠繼續努力。你說整隊喔?你說整隊?"},{"start":580.368,"end":598.977,"text":"所以要什麼影響什麼什麼等等,阿讓彭總裁冒這個原因阿,他都得14個A、15個A,對不對,所以這個東西阿,楊總裁,這個東西阿我要,我要在這裡阿,來跟委員報告,我要佩服我們彭總裁,我佩服他阿這如果沒在這裡沒關係啦,他要跟你看阿"},{"start":600.737,"end":611.244,"text":"最後一個問題最後一個問題這個卓榮泰院長說要研議金融兵推我就請問你喔如果真的打仗了台灣有多少錢可以投入按照我們的戰爭準備金有多少你知道嗎"},{"start":630.497,"end":644.586,"text":"因為我告訴委員就是說整個冰天這是整個政府的一個機制但是我要跟委員報告就中央銀行的部分我們隨時隨時的都是在準備"},{"start":645.507,"end":658.004,"text":"所以在這裏我相信就是說在這一個部分我們都是...這問題很簡單大家最關心的你會不會進行外匯管制?這個我想在這個場合裏面我們也不必要講這個"},{"start":666.131,"end":691.737,"text":"我跟委員報告就是說在中央銀行的這個部分因為政府是整體的中央銀行的部分我們把你站在中央銀行角度那我站在小老百姓的角度你再告訴我們一句話然後我就下去來你告訴我們老百姓萬一打造了老百姓資產怎麼保護最好這個我沒辦法跟委員報告這大家不要栽換美金啊"},{"start":693.047,"end":695.708,"text":"我只能跟委員報告我們央行都有做妥適的準備我不敢置評這是委員的看法"},{"start":719.212,"end":721.395,"text":"謝謝賴司寶委員 接著請郭國文委員"}]},"gazette":{"lineno":220,"blocks":[["賴委員士葆：（9時45分）謝謝主席，有請央行總裁楊總裁。"],["主席：請總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：賴委員早。"],["賴委員士葆：早。今天的題目主席排得很好，是第七波的信用管制，針對打炒房。雖然你說有些寬限之類的，所謂的寬限期把它排除掉，但是我就請問你，外界都認為效果好像不怎麼樣，沒什麼感覺，大家覺得這個「金龍海嘯」好像要變成「金蛇」，覺得不怎麼樣，沒有想像中那麼可怕，你要不要講一下？"],["楊總裁金龍：你的意思就是說力道不夠重的意思？"],["賴委員士葆：沒有什麼感覺。"],["楊總裁金龍：我想……"],["賴委員士葆：我先講一句話，其實就是超額儲蓄太多，請問你，超額儲蓄多少錢？idle cash有多少？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們的儲蓄有幾兆啦！"],["賴委員士葆：幾兆？4兆。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，4兆。"],["賴委員士葆：以前二點多兆，到現在4兆，臺灣的錢太多了，你怎麼搞也是搞不到結果啦！你講一下，剛才對不起把你打斷。"],["楊總裁金龍：委員，我想這是一個概念的問題，超額的儲蓄會反應在哪裡呢？超額的儲蓄會反應在我們經常帳順差，經常帳順差裡面很大部分就是我們的貿易帳，大部分的超額儲蓄都是貿易帳所造成的，而貿易帳所造成的這些錢大部分都是用外幣握有，所以我跟委員報告，大部分都是外幣握有就是資金的外流，我們如果說有順差的話就是資金外流，所以也不是說這些超額儲蓄都全部到不動產去，不是這麼一回事。所以我跟委員報告我們的壽險業為什麼會在國外投資、我們的ETF、國內的信託，這些都是因為我們貿易的順差，貿易順差就是握有外幣啊！"],["賴委員士葆：我的時間有限，你就簡單回答，讓大家聽得懂。"],["楊總裁金龍：所以我的意思是……"],["賴委員士葆：第一個，現在有沒有效果啦？效果出來沒有？"],["楊總裁金龍：效果不會今天下去就出現……"],["賴委員士葆：還沒有出來嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有，我們要慢慢的來評估，慢慢的來看。"],["賴委員士葆：那你總是有些觀察指標，你希望是軟著陸還是硬著陸？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，我們觀察。那當然是要軟著陸。"],["賴委員士葆：當然要軟著陸，這是我多問了。"],["楊總裁金龍：我很誠心的跟委員報告，當預期心理非常強的時候就會都非常強，現在我們的第一步是什麼？我們的第一步當然不是說要讓它軟著陸，沒有，第一步是要讓它的預期心理轉回來。"],["賴委員士葆：要穩健。"],["楊總裁金龍：慢慢的才會下來。"],["賴委員士葆：你剛才說你誠懇跟我講，我也很誠懇跟你講，請問你，總是要看到成效，你心目中覺得第七波多久可以看到成效？三個月可以嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：成效要多久我很難去估測，我很誠實的告訴委員。"],["賴委員士葆：我也很誠實的跟你講，三個月看不到，人家說這沒有用，三個月看不到效果，不然半年可以嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：再看看嘛！我們會持續密切注意。"],["賴委員士葆：比如說半年內，半年其實很長，我講半年我自己都不好意思了，如果半年都看不到成效……"],["楊總裁金龍：如果說從某些方式來看、從某些市場來看，半年也許太長，但是我們的房地產比較特殊。"],["賴委員士葆：所以你看，我做球給你，半年剛剛好，半年後來看交易量、平均價格等等的指標，總裁，如果半年後和現在差不多，一樣不怎麼樣，你會不會不排除第八波？"],["楊總裁金龍：現在就在講第八波是怎麼樣、要第八波等等，我總覺得還是言之過早。"],["賴委員士葆：你的答案我替你把它簡單的小結，觀察半年以後再看，這樣可以嗎？我這樣的講法你接受嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：反正我們持續觀察……"],["賴委員士葆：我講觀察半年啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：也不必要設時點，我們持續觀察啦！"],["賴委員士葆：我就說半年，給你觀察半年。"],["楊總裁金龍：持續觀察。"],["賴委員士葆：好。講到這個，我都替你難過，你今年為什麼沒拿到A？你已經四個A了，大家都以為會有第五個A，結果呢？等一下，我找了老半天，我看一下就覺得奇怪，楊金龍總裁就做得不錯啊，結果人家對你的分析是，因為你跟全世界的趨勢背道而行，人家在降或者不升，你卻升了；人家在降，你也不降，然後我們還被公布為匯率操縱國的觀察名單。簡單來講就是，在你的主政底下，中央銀行的政策不夠自由化，或者是自由化不夠透明，或者是有太多的人為干預，所以你今年沒拿到A，是不是這樣？"],["楊總裁金龍：這一點我來跟委員報告……"],["賴委員士葆：你不同意？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們會變成觀察名單，主要是兩項……"],["賴委員士葆：那個沒關係啦！那個不用討論。"],["楊總裁金龍：不是，跟外匯市場沒有關係，因為剛剛你說沒有透明什麼的，你看我們很透明啊！我們在市場我們賣……我們很透明，我們都報告啦！但是我們成為觀察名單，主要是兩項，包括我剛剛跟委員報告的，我們的經常帳……"],["賴委員士葆：外貿出超太多啦！占GDP比例太高了。"],["楊總裁金龍：對、對、對。"],["賴委員士葆：我知道啦！講到都可以背了。"],["楊總裁金龍：所以你不能說是我們外匯市場干預什麼的，導致被列為觀察名單……"],["賴委員士葆：我只是猜啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：這是不對啊！"],["賴委員士葆：請問你，你沒有拿到A的原因在哪裡？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，第一個，我們中央銀行，當然是我，仍有持續進步的空間，這是第一點。第二點，我也是在猜，我也是覺得很納悶，可能是因為去年，因為他今年的評比是以去年做基本的分析狀況，去年我們的通膨是2.49。"],["賴委員士葆：所以是通膨太高？"],["楊總裁金龍：然後我們經濟成長是1.28，這個是我個人猜啦！"],["賴委員士葆：所以GDP不好、CPI太高，是不是這樣？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，不過我也要跟委員報告，因為通膨率跟經濟成長率是每年波動的，不過我也跟委員報告一個數據，我們如果不要用年增率的方式來比較，而是用2020年，就是COVID-19之前的那一年做基期來看我們到2023年的經濟成長率……"],["賴委員士葆：好啦！因為我的時間有限，總裁，你講這麼多，我有隱約感覺到你的無奈、不接受，是不是這樣講？有沒有感覺委屈？"],["楊總裁金龍：我第一點已經有提過，我們有精進的空間，我已經講了第一點就是這個啦！我沒有……"],["賴委員士葆：對於這樣的結果你有沒有感覺委屈？"],["楊總裁金龍：但是我們也要分析啊！"],["賴委員士葆：你有沒有感覺委屈？有沒有？"],["楊總裁金龍：應該是不會啦！不會委屈。"],["賴委員士葆：默默接受？"],["楊總裁金龍：我覺得我們要接受，而且我們要往前走。"],["賴委員士葆：還是不服氣的接受？"],["楊總裁金龍：不會。"],["賴委員士葆：還是含怨接受、含恨接受？"],["楊總裁金龍：不會啦！"],["賴委員士葆：我這樣形容可以嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們虛心檢討……"],["賴委員士葆：虛心檢討，含怨接受？"],["楊總裁金龍：虛心接受。"],["賴委員士葆：明年繼續努力。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，明年繼續努力。"],["賴委員士葆：因為你說了一大堆，什麼因素影響等等，但彭總裁也有這個原因啊！他拿了14個A、15個A，對不對？所以楊總裁，這個東西……"],["楊總裁金龍：我要在這裡跟委員報告，我佩服彭總裁，我佩服他！"],["賴委員士葆：他現在人不在這裡，沒關係啦！他沒在看，你稱讚他，他也聽不到。再努力一點啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：是、是、是，當然。"],["賴委員士葆：你拿A是我們臺灣的面子。","最後一個問題，我把這個問題問完。卓榮泰院長說要研議金融兵推，我就請問你，如果真的打仗了，臺灣有多少錢可以投入？你知道我們的戰爭準備金有多少嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：我告訴委員，兵推是整個政府的機制，對不對？但是我要跟委員報告，就中央銀行的部分，我們隨時都在準備，所以我相信在這個部分，我們都是……"],["賴委員士葆：我的問題很簡單，大家最關心的是，你會不會進行外匯管制？會不會？一定要有啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：我想在這個場合裡面，我們也不必要講這個。"],["賴委員士葆：兵推，怎麼不必要？卓院長說要講兵推，你說不要講。"],["楊總裁金龍：不過我跟委員報告，因為政府是整體的，在中央銀行的部分，我們會把中央銀行的部分做好。"],["賴委員士葆：你站在中央銀行的角度，那我站在小老百姓的角度，你就告訴我們一句話，我就下去。你告訴我們，萬一打仗的話，老百姓的資產要怎麼保護最好？"],["楊總裁金龍：這個我沒辦法跟委員報告。"],["賴委員士葆：大家都知道，就換美金啊！可以吧？我這樣講沒有錯吧？請問你，有沒有錯？"],["楊總裁金龍：我沒辦法跟委員報告。"],["賴委員士葆：換美金，烏克蘭一打仗就貶值25%，臺灣一打仗，臺幣絕對貶值，趕快換美金或者買全球的ETF，就是這樣而已。"],["楊總裁金龍：我只能跟委員報告，我們央行都有做妥適的準備。"],["賴委員士葆：不是，我剛剛講的話有沒有錯？換美金對吧？"],["楊總裁金龍：這個我不敢置評，這是委員的看法。"],["賴委員士葆：所以你拿不到A，你不敢講會拿不到A喔！"],["主席：謝謝賴士葆委員。","接著請郭國文委員。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":388,"meet_id":"委員會-11-2-20-2","speakers":["賴惠員","林德福","吳秉叡","陳玉珍","賴士葆","郭國文","李彥秀","李坤城","顏寬恒","王世堅","黃珊珊","羅明才","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","邱志偉","王鴻薇","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":341,"meetingDate":["2024-10-17"],"gazette_id":"1138501","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1138501_00006"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第2會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"一、邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並\n備質詢；二、邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「第七波選擇性信用管制之配套措施」進行專題報告，\n並備質詢","agenda_id":"1138501_00005"}}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}