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這兩種現象的時候你怎麼辦"},{"start":448.12,"end":467.252,"text":"本期就叫你這種狀況是有可能不是不可能那委員您講的這個你的推論是蠻有道理的但是呢所以這個也就是說在我們報告裡面我們有講到就是說我們這一次的第七波也就是說我們要限制它的成數"},{"start":468.633,"end":469.595,"text":"現在就是說資源有限資源有限那要如何的來分配"},{"start":482.116,"end":485.519,"text":"總裁,我沒有懷疑你第七波的破例跟效應。我只是會讓你說未來的部分怎麼辦?"},{"start":499.171,"end":514.273,"text":"這三個還等著等著你你還有挑戰還有三個狀況新青安的話我跟委員報告新青安應該如果說以我們現在資源雖然有限我個人覺得他應該是可以足以來應務他"},{"start":515.835,"end":534.678,"text":"但是現在就是說建築的這個部分委員倒是講的也沒有錯因為這個建築融資的這個部分有的據我了解這是我從報章雜誌那邊看到的他說因為銀行老早就有已經有給他那個什麼額度"},{"start":535.819,"end":555.147,"text":"已經有額度。那額度的意思就是說他是已經有簽約了。已經有簽約?有簽約你現在已經水位都已經2829了。那到時候他怎麼拿出來?所以呢也就是說這個就是說看那個各個銀行要如何去分配他的這個資源。難道又要開後門嗎?"},{"start":556.462,"end":563.305,"text":"總裁我真的慎重提醒你事情恐怕還不是那麼單純一個是清安貸一個是按量增加然後再加上那個過往整個金額的換算起來我真的很擔心那個37.5還會往上攀升你要意識到這個問題"},{"start":584.693,"end":604.938,"text":"即便你第七波非常的強而有力但是第二個問題有搞不好會滿水位的問題滿水問題這兩個問題都會同時存在然後後續的部分你剛剛講到建商的部分建商的部分現在有些建商就出現了大幹趕又大滯銷的部分所以這種現象會變成建商負債過高滯銷率這個過高"},{"start":607.479,"end":622.351,"text":"以至於這個建商接下來他用這種方式說以後我可獲得的這個利益可能可以期待創造一些本夢比所以以至於他反而他股價也變高這種情況底下說變成說他為了股價然後呢做蓋桿然後又把滯銷這種情況底下那個難道這個從預唆還有整個建商的整個財務建設來看還有包括整個這個漁務貸款的問題"},{"start":632.719,"end":637.844,"text":"委員的督促是都相當有幫助的啦給主管機關各個部會都有很好的一個建議啦這個我想我們都會來好好的來注意他好不好"},{"start":653.379,"end":664.568,"text":"本席最後提醒您一句話這是第七波我想這三個月是一個很密切的觀察期我希望能夠形成一個真正有效的政策出來謝謝總裁謝謝委員謝謝郭國文委員"}]},"gazette":{"lineno":317,"blocks":[["郭委員國文：（9時58分）主席，有請楊金龍總裁。"],["主席：請總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：郭委員早。"],["郭委員國文：總裁好。總裁，沒有A，B＋也不錯啦！日本跟韓國也都B＋嘛！我們雖然沒有拿到A，但也沒有比人家差。就像討論外匯匯率的部分，本席今天就發現，美國最近都在降息，反觀我們，基本上最近這幾次的央行理監事會是升息又升準，為什麼我們還會貶值？然後今天我看到一則新聞說，我們居然花了90.6億的美金想要阻貶，結果還是貶，貶了5.29%，難道就這麼單純是因為整個外資匯出250億美金，就會造成這樣的結果嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，我們的報告也有講到，好像沒有那麼detail，事實上我們的股市表現得非常好，我們股市從今年初到現在……"],["郭委員國文：所以外資賺了一大堆錢就趕快匯出去了？"],["楊總裁金龍：是啊，我們的股市在全球來講好像成長的幅度是最高的喔！"],["郭委員國文：對，沒有錯。"],["楊總裁金龍：那當然……"],["郭委員國文：我們現在整個市值，就我所了解，已經高達……"],["楊總裁金龍：在這種情況之下，我跟委員報告，外資的操作是很靈活的，他不會說你一直漲的時候……"],["郭委員國文：所以你是為了穩定匯率而出手，如果過度貶值的話，搞不好它會有輸入性通膨。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，委員講得沒有錯，不過我們在……"],["郭委員國文：是不是？所以你為了這樣子，怕臺灣的CPI升高嘛？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，不過我們在報告裡面有講，目前臺灣裡面沒有輸入性通膨的情況。"],["郭委員國文：好，今天的主題不是談CPI，我們現在來談今天的報告，關於第七波信用管制的問題。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：本席就你寫的報告當中，這也是你的報告，你看我特別標紅字的部分，也就是整個土建融的部分，成長幅度從2018年起，2018年剛好從你那個趨勢圖來說相對是低點的，到2024年就一下子就到37.5%，37.5%當中很清楚的看到，你看從土建融的部分就看得出來建商在拚命推案，所有的放款比例都是成長，大約成長了六成，土建融的部分大概就高達八成六，這是第一個狀況。","當然正因為在這樣的情況底下，你會出手進行第七波的信用管制，剛開始你的壓力很大，但是最近10月10號賴清德總統在國慶演說的時候強調，他不會迴避高房價、強調要增加打炒房的效率，即便得罪特定的團體也在所不惜！在這樣的情況底下，等於賴總統對你整個的第七波管制進行背書，總裁，你能不能講一講你的心得怎麼樣？感受怎麼樣？有沒有覺得很溫暖？"],["楊總裁金龍：是啦，總統在國慶演說裡面也有提到這一點，我覺得……"],["郭委員國文：第一次國慶還會講到這個議題耶！"],["楊總裁金龍：是！很顯然他對於房地產市場也非常關心。"],["郭委員國文：是啊。"],["楊總裁金龍：才會在國慶裡面提到這這件事情。"],["郭委員國文：所以在總統的心目中，你應該是得A了啦，不只是B+。"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝委員。"],["郭委員國文：總裁，所以不要在乎那個啦，重點是接下來這一個信用管制有沒有效果？因為之前我就看過一篇報導說，有一個銀行主管依照他經驗的理解，真正換屋的大概不到5%。但是我就教於你，你當初因為有一些壓力，央行也特別設置專線，大概有15線、後來變成14線，在這一個半月當中，民眾陳情、投訴銀行的案例到底有幾件？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想呢……"],["郭委員國文：你們統計的，這是你們開放的啊，有沒有數字？"],["楊總裁金龍：是！主要的還是換屋跟繼承這兩個，主要的還是這兩個。"],["郭委員國文：對，反映最多是這兩個。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：那案件大概有多少個？"],["楊總裁金龍：關於我們的案件，我來跟……"],["郭委員國文：你們累積多少個？應該有計算吧！"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟我們的業務局……"],["郭委員國文：來！"],["潘局長榮耀：跟委員報告，過去民眾打電話來陳情……"],["郭委員國文：對，你們設立專線之後的一個半月期間。"],["潘局長榮耀：一天大概都會將近一百多通。"],["郭委員國文：一百多通？"],["潘局長榮耀：對，還有民眾陳情的案件。"],["郭委員國文：一個半月當中累計大概幾通？"],["潘局長榮耀：大概有一千多件。"],["郭委員國文：一千多件是不是受到銀行的刁難？"],["潘局長榮耀：有些是來問一些個案的問題，還有一些是規定的內容。"],["郭委員國文：問規定的內容大概是問降了多少成數，多半都是諮詢啦？"],["潘局長榮耀：是。"],["郭委員國文：沒有錯殺無辜的現象嘛？"],["潘局長榮耀：關於民眾陳情的部分，有些是說銀行……"],["郭委員國文：就是不理解？"],["潘局長榮耀：申請的時候……"],["郭委員國文：有刁難？還是有嘛！"],["潘局長榮耀：這一部分我們都會……"],["郭委員國文：有沒有說哪一家銀行？"],["潘局長榮耀：沒有，他們通常是……我們都有轉給各銀行，因為各銀行的部分都在排隊，他們的確因為有量的壅塞。"],["郭委員國文：所以還是在排隊嘛，對不對？"],["潘局長榮耀：但是後來很多個案大概都排除掉了。"],["郭委員國文：對，都有排除掉，其實都有一一化解，好。"],["潘局長榮耀：是。"],["郭委員國文：接下來我就請總裁。總裁，如果是這樣子的話，聽起來比例沒有相當的高啦，但是我們必須說，在整個5.8年當中，你剛剛算了大概增加了5.3兆，等於是一年增加大概1兆，這是資本集中率的部分。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：加上有幾個問題，你要小心，第一個，新青安的貸款是到2026年的7月，將近還有兩年的時間，兩年才會結束喔！"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：第二個，我再提醒總裁一個數字，內政部就我理解的部分，預售屋的部分大概有9萬戶，9萬戶喔！而且還不包括今年的檔期，今年的檔期有329、928加起來，往年的案量金額大概1兆，今年是2兆，這是第二個問題。","所以這樣子加起來的話，我擔心如果以過去的青安貸，一年貸款大概是6,000億，兩年就有1.2兆，如果內政部那個預售屋、所有的土建融初估，還不是青安貸，而是土建融初估的話，一戶大概代表1,000萬，很高耶，大概9,000億！所以夯不啷噹加起來、這兩個plus起來又是2兆以上。所以這個會不會導致即便在第七波信用管制之後，37.5的資本集中度還往上衝高，或者第二個問題是第七十二條之二的30%水位滿位，沒有辦法再貸，有沒有可能這兩種現象？這兩種現象的時候你怎麼辦？本席就就教你這種狀況，這是有可能、不是不可能！"],["楊總裁金龍：對，委員的推論是滿有道理的，所以在我們的報告裡面有講到，我們這一次的第七波要限制它的成數，剛剛委員也講到，因為它滿水位了嘛，現在資源有限，那要如何來分配？所以我們這一次的第七波也是在於，我們把這個成數、把那些不需要的……不需要那個讓它……"],["郭委員國文：總裁，我沒有懷疑你第七波的魄力跟效應，我只是讓你說未來的部分怎麼辦？"],["楊總裁金龍：未來，對啊……"],["郭委員國文：我剛剛講這三個還等著你。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，它還是等著啦，當然！"],["郭委員國文：你還有挑戰、還有三個狀況。"],["楊總裁金龍：關於新青安的話，我跟委員報告，雖然我們現在資源有限，我個人覺得應該是足以來應付它，但是現在建築的這個部分，委員講的倒也沒有錯，因為建築融資的部分，有的據我了解，這是我從報章雜誌那邊看到的，因為銀行老早就已經給他額度、已經有額度，那額度的意思就是說他是已經有簽約了。"],["郭委員國文：已經有簽約？即使有簽約，現在已經水位都已經28、29了。"],["楊總裁金龍：對！所以……"],["郭委員國文：到時候他怎麼拿出來？"],["楊總裁金龍：所以這部分看各個銀行要如何去分配他的資源。"],["郭委員國文：難道又要開後門嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想銀行會有自己的方法去解決這些問題，所以第一個，他的時間會拉長也沒有錯。"],["郭委員國文：總裁，我真的慎重提醒你，事情恐怕還不是那麼單純，一個是青安貸、一個是案量增加，然後再加上過往整個金額換算起來，我真的很擔心那個37.5%還會往上攀升，你要意識到這個問題。"],["楊總裁金龍：對！"],["郭委員國文：即便你第七波非常的強而有力，但是第二個問題，搞不好還會有滿水位的問題，這兩個問題都會同時存在。","關於後續，你剛剛講到建商的部分，現在有些建商就出現了大槓桿又大滯銷，所以這種現象會變成建商負債過高、滯銷率過高，以致於建商接下來他用這種方式就是，以後他可獲得的利益可能可以期待，創造一些本夢比，反而他的股價也變高，這種情況底下會變成說，他為了股價做槓桿，然後又滯銷，在這種情況底下，從預售還有整體建商財務監測來看，還有包括整個餘屋貸款的問題，難道不一併來做一個檢討嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，我們會密切的注意他，好不好？委員的督促……"],["郭委員國文：對呀，就如同你說的……"],["楊總裁金龍：委員的督促都相當有幫助，給主管機關、各個部會都有很好的建議，這部分我們都會來好好的注意他，好不好？"],["郭委員國文：所以本席最後提醒您一句話，這是第七波，我想這三個月是一個很密切的觀察期，我希望能夠形成一個真正有效的政策出來。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：謝謝總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝委員，謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝郭國文委員。"],["主席（郭委員國文代）：接著請賴惠員委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":388,"meet_id":"委員會-11-2-20-2","speakers":["賴惠員","林德福","吳秉叡","陳玉珍","賴士葆","郭國文","李彥秀","李坤城","顏寬恒","王世堅","黃珊珊","羅明才","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","邱志偉","王鴻薇","楊瓊瓔"],"page_start":341,"meetingDate":["2024-10-17"],"gazette_id":"1138501","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1138501_00006"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第2會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"一、邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並\n備質詢；二、邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「第七波選擇性信用管制之配套措施」進行專題報告，\n並備質詢","agenda_id":"1138501_00005"}}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}