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灣經貿的影響本席想請教一下總裁當你知道說川普確定當選總統之後你那時候心情的感受是怎麼樣"},{"start":20.501,"end":48.899,"text":"我的感受就是說會更就是說會有一種有一種挑戰挑戰是有一種挑戰因為畢竟那個他川普大家剛剛也在講就是說他是一個商人性格就是說他的一個政策有些時候他雖然也是講了這個這些的這個政策他的政見出來但是呢他比較不容易去prediction去預測他"},{"start":50.2,"end":62.332,"text":"所以不能預測不容易預測這本身就是一個uncertainty就金融市場來講的話Uncertainty它就是一個大問題所以就會覺得這是一個挑戰對於總裁來講"},{"start":66.055,"end":84.823,"text":"央行的挑戰在哪裡?那當然啊就是說我們央行的挑戰也就是說外匯市場它本身它就是一個很大的挑戰因為capital flows你看美元大家都說它現在降息它會漲下來沒有想到你看它噗噗噗又跑上去了又那麼強你看看所有的幣幣對它都是貶值"},{"start":90.746,"end":93.609,"text":"這是一個挑戰第二、對經濟上關稅下去對全球的影響是怎麼樣因為台灣是以貿易為主的所以對全球貿易的衝擊是怎麼樣對台灣的貿易會怎麼樣"},{"start":114.847,"end":137.009,"text":"那這個是我們要因應對我們經濟的成長會怎麼樣對通膨的影響是怎麼樣這個我們要因應的好那總裁請教一下你看第一個就是講到這一個美元升值了美元變強了台幣來講相對就變弱了那最近從這個川普確定當選來之後台幣是不是一段一直在貶值"},{"start":138.761,"end":156.937,"text":"我們有這個表,有一個表給各位來看我看昨天也去扁到大概32點多了那有沒有觸及到您的這個32.5的楊金龍防線我想中央銀行沒有防線那有沒有底線不是有底線,因為第一個"},{"start":159.246,"end":161.608,"text":"但是我們貶值啊 我的12頁這邊啊你看看日圓貶了6.5%對 我們是很穩定的就台灣來講的話"},{"start":185.666,"end":187.792,"text":"這個總裁 這個請教一下 央行進場干預的條件"},{"start":191.083,"end":214.596,"text":"時機在哪裡?如果說供需的平衡就是供需它的差距太大會導致你的匯率的波動很大的時候中央銀行一定要進去因為匯率這個價格跟其他的商品的價格不太一樣的你看看我們的一般的商品台灣過後了以後它價格就下來了"},{"start":215.516,"end":238.557,"text":"這個不是喔,這個如果說你貶值你不是去做一個適當的調解的時候那川普當選還不像颱風嘛,颱風過了就沒有了,川普未來是當選會4年啊對嘛,所以這個說匯率就很怕他的預期是單向的所以呢央行的調解就是說必須要讓他不能有單向的預期"},{"start":240.258,"end":260.714,"text":"這個就是中央銀行的一個質詢所以就是說中央銀行每天要盯住盯住大概到什麼條件點的時候那當然我們這個我們自己會來做那個看不見的手會進去嗎還是看得見的手會進去對我們也不方便在這裡講說到哪裡的時候我們就會下去到哪裡的時候我們大概是哪些條件啊對啦那第一個我還是在講principle"},{"start":266.198,"end":291.292,"text":"公需決定第二個呢他如果說公需非常的失衡的時候呢中央銀行要進去那如果說貶值是一個大家普遍的一個現象的話那中央銀行應該也不必要太緊張吧因為大家都在貶啊那你也應該允許他調解啊因為匯率本身不只是說是你自己的還包括它是相對性的其他的都在貶那你要申嗎不可能嘛你也會隨著貶"},{"start":294.574,"end":308.947,"text":"因為特別是像現在美元強的時候其他幣別都弱美元弱的時候其他幣別都是強現在就有這種特色那您預設就是說接下來美元還是會持續在走強嗎到目前為止是這樣子但是我也跟委員報告匯率這個價格是很難去prediction的"},{"start":317.955,"end":332.3,"text":"他是很難去,所以這個就是說為什麼中央銀行要必須要每天我們都是要必須要關注他他的供需還有的capital flows這個就是說為什麼我們要時常盯住他的意思那你認為這個未來這四年內這個川普的這個貨幣政策是不是會持續採取比較寬鬆的這個方式"},{"start":343.115,"end":358.625,"text":"原先的預期就是說費德他是認為就是說今年會調整4次調降4次明年4次後年會2次但是川普一上來的時候恐怕他這個步調恐怕就會改變"},{"start":361.187,"end":373.981,"text":"所以這個改變我跟委員報告就是說這個改變FED現在目前他也不曉得說他要怎麼來改變他唯一能夠做的呢Data dependent"},{"start":374.522,"end":388.659,"text":"也就是說第一個他看他的那個什麼他美國的一個經濟的指標CPI還有就是說勞動市場的情況是怎麼樣這個是第一個第二個呢他也要關注就是說川普他"},{"start":389.48,"end":408.321,"text":"他的這個關稅政策他的一個budget的他的財政政策這些呢是什麼時候出場第二個呢他的規模是怎麼樣那他如果說知道一步一步知道的時候呢他就會把這些的數據呢把他用在那這個是FED的預測嗎那"},{"start":410.023,"end":429.323,"text":"我們的預測我們大概也是會朝這樣一個方向就是說因為我們現在也不曉得啊我們也不曉得說總裁不能說不曉得啊大家都在看你欸因為說不曉得說他只有政見那政見什麼時候實施他的規模是怎麼樣你要預測他當選就職之後明年1月20號就會開始實施了"},{"start":434.937,"end":445.384,"text":"所以我就說我們在報告裡面講我們每一季我們每一個季每一季我們都會做修訂我用4年前總裁曾經說過的話有兩句話因為那時候是台灣也被列入匯率的觀察名單兩句話我其實現在4年之後再來檢視我覺得還是有用那我請教教這個總裁在4年前12月17號"},{"start":459.853,"end":475.026,"text":"那時候我們被列入匯率的操縱觀察名單你講了兩句話我認為現在再來請教第一個,台灣被列入匯率觀察名單是因為川普第二個,美國寬鬆的貨幣政策就是我們的挑戰四年後再來檢視這兩句話"},{"start":479.189,"end":493.723,"text":"現在反而是不一定是寬鬆那時候是寬鬆的話是我們的挑戰沒有錯現在是反而是他的貨幣政策的一個不確定性是我們的挑戰"},{"start":494.824,"end":518.44,"text":"所以你認為他的貨幣政策是不確定性不一定是採寬鬆的貨幣政策對是寬鬆或是緊縮呢這個到目前為止都是一個很不確定性的一個情況那這個是我們的挑戰所以呢我們在這個的在這個報告裡面我們有列出三個第一個第三個的衝擊就是說費的他的一個貨幣政策的不確定性是會衝擊到我們"},{"start":520.562,"end":528.789,"text":"對,如果我看到三大衝擊但是其實危機有時候常常也是轉機我看今天大家都在講衝擊那對我們來講川普再度當選總統除了對你來講衝擊跟挑戰你有沒有什麼轉機的地方?"},{"start":535.048,"end":546.116,"text":"我覺得就是說只要大家第一個就是說大家要密切注意它然後對於川普的政策還有美國貨幣政策我們要如何去adapt去調整而且我們的調整要能夠就是說我們能夠順勢的而為而不是逆勢而為順勢的"},{"start":556.644,"end":585.61,"text":"那這樣的話呢所以呢為什麼我們在第一個part我們在第一個part我們在第一個部分裡面就談到了就是說川普那個時候的美中貿易衝突呢台灣呢反而是反而是加分的受益是受益的接下來也是啊接下來川普的團隊都是屬於這個抗中保台的團隊啊所以接下來是不是會像四年前這個美中貿易戰一樣台灣有一樣在這個地方在經濟上面也會在得利"},{"start":586.972,"end":611.701,"text":"我們報告也有提到就是說以前啊川普的這個貿易政策呢我們是轉單效應的我們是轉單啊我們獲益啊但現在呢我們這個轉單的效益是不是還能夠持續還是是不是就像以前那樣的強那這個我們要關注但是我們也不能保證就是說就是一定是這樣子的那如果說是這樣的話那你就要但關稅對於我們的影響勒"},{"start":613.962,"end":619.767,"text":"關稅的影響這個我也不敢說了為什麼為什麼因為我還是一直在強調就是說"},{"start":621.394,"end":641.727,"text":"這個我們輸出到美國的這個商品是他們所需要的而且這都是戰略的商品是那這個呢是誰要來付費是我們的出口商呢或是他們的消費者呢這個都很難說所以就是說如果真的要對台灣的這個貨物採取這個關稅加關稅的話那你覺得對於這個台灣的企業的影響比較多還是對於美國來講影響比較多"},{"start":649.638,"end":674.989,"text":"這個我要做比較詳細一點的study才知道就現在大家最關心的就是半導體啊不過我是還是在講就是說第一個part那個是很好的一個example是一個很好的例子可以讓我們來稍微來注意一下事實上呢我總覺得我們還是獲利的啊我們還是獲利的那我們當然是擔心啊不過呢我總覺得我們也不必要太悲觀"},{"start":675.589,"end":690.458,"text":"所以對於這個川普再度當選總統總裁認為是有挑戰但有信心是對有信心而且我們要就是說很謹慎的去因應好OK好謝謝總裁好謝謝昆城接著請王洪威委員質詢"}]},"gazette":{"lineno":678,"blocks":[["李委員坤城：（10時27分）謝謝主席，我們請央行楊總裁。"],["主席：是，請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：李委員早。"],["李委員坤城：總裁好。大家都在關心川普再度當選總統之後對於臺灣經貿的影響，本席想請教一下總裁，當你知道川普確定當選總統之後，你那時候心情的感受是怎麼樣？"],["楊總裁金龍：我的感受就是更有一種挑戰，畢竟大家剛剛也在講，川普是商人性格，也就是說他的政策，有時候雖然他也是講了一些政見出來，但是他比較不容易去prediction（預測），不能預測、不容易預測本身就是一個uncertainty，就金融市場來講，uncertainty就是一個大問題，所以也就會覺得這是一個挑戰。"],["李委員坤城：對於總裁來講，央行的挑戰在哪裡？"],["楊總裁金龍：當然我們央行的挑戰就是外匯市場，它本身就是一個很大的挑戰，因為capital flows真的不小，你看美元，大家都說要降息、會弱下來，沒有想到它又「噗、噗、噗」跑上去了，又那麼強。"],["李委員坤城：對。"],["楊總裁金龍：你看看所有的幣別對它都是貶值，capital outflows就是一個挑戰。"],["李委員坤城：好。"],["楊總裁金龍：第二個，經濟上它的關稅下去的話，對整個全球的影響是怎麼樣？因為臺灣是以貿易為主，所以它對於貿易的衝擊，對全球貿易的衝擊是怎麼樣？對臺灣的貿易會怎麼樣？這個是我們要因應的。對我們經濟的成長會怎麼樣？對通膨的影響是怎麼樣？這也是我們要因應的。"],["李委員坤城：好，總裁請教一下，你剛才第一個講到的是美元升值，美元變強了。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["李委員坤城：對臺幣來講，相對就變弱了。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["李委員坤城：最近從川普確定當選之後，臺幣是不是一直在貶值？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們有一個表給各位參考。"],["李委員坤城：我看昨天也繼續貶，貶到大概三十二點多了嘛。"],["楊總裁金龍：對、對、對。"],["李委員坤城：有沒有觸及到您32.5的楊金龍防線？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想中央銀行沒有防線……"],["李委員坤城：沒有防線？"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有防線。"],["李委員坤城：那有沒有底線？"],["楊總裁金龍：不是底線，第一個，因為匯率是供需決定，這是第一個。"],["李委員坤城：我知道，現在討論的就是……"],["楊總裁金龍：第二個，因為匯率本身……"],["李委員坤城：川普當選之後，看起來美元是強，臺幣相對是弱勢，臺幣最近也不斷在貶值，所以我想請教一下……"],["楊總裁金龍：但是我們貶值……看第12頁，日圓貶了六成……"],["李委員坤城：其他國家也貶，我們相對是小，我有看你的報告。"],["楊總裁金龍：對啊，我們是小，我們是很穩定的。"],["李委員坤城：就臺灣來講，請教一下總裁，央行進場干預的條件和時機在哪裡？"],["楊總裁金龍：如果說供需的平衡，供需的差距太大會導致匯率波動很大的時候，中央銀行一定要進去，因為匯率的價格跟其他商品價格不大一樣，你看看我們的一般商品，颱風過了以後，它價格就下來了，但這個不是喔，這如果貶值，你不去做一個適當的調節，它會一直上去喔。"],["李委員坤城：川普當選不像颱風，颱風過了就沒有了，川普當選是未來4年啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：這個時候就很怕匯率的預期是單向的，央行的調節必須要讓它不能有單向的預期，這個就是中央銀行的職責，所以中央銀行每天要盯住capital flows。"],["李委員坤城：大概到什麼條件點的時候，你們會進去干預？"],["楊總裁金龍：當然我們自己會來做……"],["李委員坤城：看不見的手會進去嗎？還是看得見的手會進去？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們也不方便在這裡講到哪裡我們就會下去，到哪裡的時候我們就要出來。"],["李委員坤城：大概是哪些條件？"],["楊總裁金龍：第一個我還是講principle，供需決定；第二個，如果供需非常失衡的時候，中央銀行要進去，如果說貶值是一個普遍的現象，中央銀行應該也不必要太緊張吧，因為大家都在貶啊，那也應該允許它調節，因為匯率本身不只是自己的，它是相對性的，其他的都在貶，那你要升嗎？不可能嘛！你也會隨著貶。特別是像現在，美元強的時候，其他幣別都是弱，美元弱的時候，其他幣別都是強，現在就有這種特色。"],["李委員坤城：那您預測嘛，您預測接下來美元都還是會持續走強嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：到目前為止是這樣子，但是我也跟委員報告，匯率的價格是很難去prediction的，所以為什麼中央銀行必須要每天關注它的供需還有capital flows，這就是我們為什麼要時常盯住它的意思。"],["李委員坤城：我再就教總裁，您認為未來這4年內，川普的貨幣政策是不是會持續採取比較寬鬆的方式？"],["楊總裁金龍：原先的預期，Fed認為今年會調整4次，調降4次、明年4次、後年2次，但是川普一上來的時候，恐怕這個步調就會改變。我跟委員報告，關於這個改變，Fed目前也不曉得要怎麼來改變，它唯一能夠做的data dependent，也就是它第一個看美國的經濟指標CPI，還有勞動市場的情況是怎麼樣，這個第一個；第二個，它也要關注川普的關稅政策，他的budget、他的財政政策，這些是什麼時候出場；再者，他的規模是怎麼樣，那它如果一步一步知道時，它就會把這些數據用在……"],["李委員坤城：這個是Fed的預測，那我們央行的預測呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們的預測大概也是會朝這樣的一個方向，因為我們現在也不曉得，我們也不曉得說……"],["李委員坤城：總裁不能說不曉得啊，大家都在看你耶！"],["楊總裁金龍：因為他只有政見，那政見什麼時候實施，他的規模是怎麼樣……"],["李委員坤城：你要預測他當選就職之後，明年1月20號就會開始實施了。"],["楊總裁金龍：所以我在報告裡面講了，我們每一季都會做修訂。"],["李委員坤城：我用4年前總裁曾經說過的話，有兩句話，因為那時候臺灣也被列入匯率的觀察名單，有兩句話，其實4年之後的現在再來檢視，我覺得還是有用。我請教一下總裁，在4年前的12月17號，那時候我們被列入匯率的操縱觀察名單，你講了兩句話，我現在再來請教，第一個，臺灣被列入匯率觀察名單是因為川普。第二個，美國的寬鬆貨幣政策就是我們的挑戰。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["李委員坤城：現在4年後再來檢視這兩句話呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：現在反而不一定是寬鬆，那時候寬鬆是我們的挑戰沒有錯，現在反而他貨幣政策的不確定性是我們的挑戰。"],["李委員坤城：所以你認為他的貨幣政策有不確定性？不一定是採寬鬆的貨幣政策？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，是寬鬆或是緊縮呢？這個到目前為止都是很不確定性的情況，這是我們的挑戰，所以我們在報告裡面有列出三個，第三個的衝擊就是Fed貨幣政策的不確定性會衝擊到我們。"],["李委員坤城：對，我有看到三大衝擊，但是其實危機有時候常常也是轉機。"],["楊總裁金龍：那當然啦！沒有錯。"],["李委員坤城：我看今天大家都在講衝擊，對我們來講，川普再度當選總統，就你來看，除了衝擊跟挑戰，有沒有什麼轉機的地方？"],["楊總裁金龍：我覺得第一個，大家要密切注意他，對於川普的政策還有美國貨幣政策，我們要如何去adapt、去調整？而且我們的調整要能夠順勢而為，而不是逆勢而為，所以為什麼我們在第一個部分裡面就談到了，川普那個時候的美中貿易衝突，對臺灣反而是加分的。"],["李委員坤城：受益。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，是受益的。"],["李委員坤城：接下來也是！我看接下來川普團隊都是屬於抗中保臺的團隊，所以接下來是不是會像4年前的美中貿易戰一樣，臺灣也一樣在這個地方、在經濟上面也會再得利？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們報告也有提到，以前川普的貿易政策，我們是轉單效應，我們是轉單、我們獲益，但是現在我們轉單的效益是不是還能夠持續，是不是就像以前那樣的強？這個我們要關注，我們也不能保證一定是這樣子的，如果是這樣，那你就……"],["李委員坤城：但是關稅對於我們的影響呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：關稅的影響我也不敢說，為什麼？因為我還是一直在強調，我們輸出到美國的商品是他們所需要的，而且這都是戰略的商品……"],["李委員坤城：是，半導體。"],["楊總裁金龍：這個是誰要來付費，是我們的出口商，或是他們的消費者呢？這個都很難說。"],["李委員坤城：所以如果真的要對臺灣的貨物加關稅，你覺得對臺灣的企業影響比較多，還是對美國來講，影響比較多？"],["楊總裁金龍：這個要做比較詳細一點的study才知道，我也沒辦法很直覺的……"],["李委員坤城：沒有，現在大家最關心的就是半導體。"],["楊總裁金龍：不過我還是在講，第一個part，那是一個很好的例子，可以讓我們稍微來注意一下，事實上我總覺得我們還是獲益的、我們還是獲利的，我們當然是擔心，不過我總覺得我們也不必太悲觀。"],["李委員坤城：所以對於川普再度當選總統，總裁雖然認為有挑戰，但也有信心？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，有信心，而且我們要很謹慎去因應。"],["李委員坤城：好，謝謝總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝。"],["主席：好，謝謝李坤城委員。","接著請王鴻薇委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":256,"meet_id":"委員會-11-2-20-8","speakers":["賴惠員","林德福","吳秉叡","賴士葆","郭國文","李彥秀","李坤城","王鴻薇","羅明才","顏寬恒","黃珊珊","伍麗華Saidhai‧Tahovecahe","陳玉珍","黃國昌","洪孟楷","羅廷瑋","楊瓊瓔","麥玉珍","葉元之","王世堅","何欣純","邱志偉"],"page_start":173,"meetingDate":["2024-11-14"],"gazette_id":"11310002","agenda_lcidc_ids":["11310002_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第2會期財政委員會第8次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"一、邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍、財政部莊部長翠雲、金融監督管理委員會彭主任委員金隆就「美\n國新任總統的貿易政策對台灣經濟與金融穩定之可能影響與對策」進行專題報告，並備質詢；\n二、審查中華民國114年度中央政府總預算案：行政院歲入預算有關中央銀行股息紅利繳庫部分\n（僅詢答）；三、審查中華民國114年度中央政府總預算案附屬單位預算營業部分關於中央銀行\n（含中央造幣廠、中央印製廠）（僅詢答）","agenda_id":"11310002_00003"}}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}