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俄羅斯這些極權國家這一些本來的全球化最得利的是中共"},{"start":121.315,"end":149.418,"text":"沒有錯啦那現在就是因為要把這個中共不遵照世界貿易的這個規則走所以必須要讓他離開這個供應鏈他現在走的戰略是這樣看清楚啦不要看表面然後常常台灣人喜歡說我們是不是在懷疑美國對台灣不好我們來認為川普是一個狂人川普在美國選民如果你相信民主政治的話"},{"start":150.595,"end":166.591,"text":"他在選舉人數以及在個別的計算數上他全部都是大幅獲勝所以美國人很支持這樣的政策那或許他講話比較快那講的"},{"start":167.608,"end":196.238,"text":"又可以改跟過去傳統中華文化裡面的儒家思想說這個為君者必須要謹言慎行有點不太一樣但是他背後有他的思考跟邏輯脈絡我們回到國際貿易來講正常的國際貿易本來就是應該要balance那台灣去年對美國順差多少700多億美金換算成台幣是兩兆五千億"},{"start":197.708,"end":216.74,"text":"那這麼大額的金錢我們已經是美國的這個順差國裡面的排名前幾名的第五名第六名所以在這種狀況之下我們每天假設我們兩個不要說國家對國家的我們兩個是兩個廠商就你一年賺了我"},{"start":217.734,"end":235.382,"text":"七百多億美金難道你不會想說我應該也要你應該要適度的回饋吧這個是很合理的啊難道是台灣的政府對於一個國家對台灣一年順差七百多億美金然後他可以裝聾作啞當中沒有看到嗎"},{"start":237.116,"end":262.425,"text":"所以我是覺得你要從人家的角度也要思考這些問題那你認為像台灣一年對美國順差這麼多很奇怪的是跟過去的理論不同台幣對美金還在貶值照理來講順差多你應該要升值那你還在貶值那因為強勢美元所以你認為這部分應該要怎麼處理"},{"start":264.634,"end":293.13,"text":"當然就是說美國的匯率報告我想委員也知道這個匯率報告它是三樣因為我們第一個標準經常這樣順差還有就是對美國的順差現在就是看第三項第三項剛剛委員也提到了不過我們第三項就是說按照道理我們對它的順差對美元應該是升值"},{"start":293.43,"end":301.754,"text":"但是因為就是說剛剛也講到就川普的交易行情哇這美國的那個交易行情你看看我們這邊他從9月份的時候100.78到1月13號的時候是109就升值了9點多那這個就是說川普行情"},{"start":319.183,"end":337.212,"text":"所以所有的辯論對他都是辯論你看一個人當選美國總統看對全世界影響多大他其實現在是全世界洞見瞻觀大家天天都在聽他講什麼天天都在看他要做什麼另外一點是"},{"start":338.132,"end":365.762,"text":"我相信我們不會刻意去操縱這個匯率因為我們知道這個如果被列為匯率操縱國的話那是我們就很倒楣啦我們第一個我們也很謹慎那當然就是說因為剛剛委員在講就是說匯率呢就實質的貿易來決定的匯率應該就是說那這樣的話美元是要貶值的當然問題另外一個就金融帳"},{"start":367.102,"end":385.935,"text":"金融帳因為就是說CAPITAL FLOWS有的金融帳也就是說他的資金進來他的資金出去金融帳的金融帳跟貿易帳這個就不大一樣所以就是說現在基本上匯率大部分都是由金融帳來決定的而不是貿易帳"},{"start":387.196,"end":401.21,"text":"但是那個貿易戰是長期的因為你不可能說去年對美國順差700多億今年可能還會再繼續增加這多年累積的結果你記不記得當年日本被美國逼的升值逼到日本的狀況"},{"start":403.832,"end":427.61,"text":"如果經常性的貿易順差今年累月這樣累積我們台灣得想辦法解決啊不解決的話我們將來會面臨這個困境因為金融帳比較容易浮動嘛那你這個貿易帳那是比較長程的影響我跟委員報告就是說我們台灣現在目前我們一直沒辦法解決的問題還是在於我們的差額儲蓄的問題"},{"start":429.526,"end":457.677,"text":"所以主計總署前不久就公佈我們今年的我們差額儲蓄大概又是4.5兆所以我有一個看法跟你分享前幾天台積電的魏哲嘉董事長在美國白宮跟川普一起開記者會全世界矚目大家都說這是不得了的影響力對不對可以跟川普在那邊開記者會而且川普對他的禮遇"},{"start":458.777,"end":486.293,"text":"他未來的幾年會增加台積電會增加對美國投資一千億美金嘛那個錢啊如果是由台灣這一邊借貸去那當然要評估各家銀行要評估說這好還是不好其實台積電本身有錢嘛更多金融機構也很想借錢給他啦因為金融機構都想借錢給有錢人啦坦白講就這樣啦"},{"start":487.714,"end":503.254,"text":"那這個錢如果能夠到美國去這也就是一個金融帳的平衡嘛 對不對至少幾年內可以幫 有點小幫助第二個啊 其實賴總統也講得很清楚喔他希望台灣的廠商評估如果合理"},{"start":504.349,"end":517.161,"text":"也有錢賺鼓勵大家到美國去投資這也是一種金融帳的平衡如果多一點投資到美國去我們台灣就會留多一點錢去美國再來"},{"start":521.705,"end":549.102,"text":"政府有沒有可能考慮讓台灣的個人可以直接購買美國的股票因為現在是付委託手續麻煩然後又那個費用又非常的貴使得這個會變少那當然基於國際互惠這個要金管會所屬部門跟美國那邊談嘛這個都可以談啊那再來就是大眾物資的採購然後能源的採購"},{"start":550.663,"end":577.18,"text":"能夠對如果差價沒有很大是可以接受的範圍分散採購來源對美國大宗物資的採購也是平衡貿易的一個方法是沒有錯要多方努力啦對啦那所以是站在這樣的立場講說今天要面對的是我們要看到問題的根源而不是被指責說那是笑的每天在我勒索沒有啊是你一天到晚"},{"start":578.41,"end":597.735,"text":"台灣是人家的順差這麼大的國家他第一名是墨西哥因為就是他的鄰國距離他那麼遠這樣的經濟體對他的順差全球第六名這是很可怕的累計個幾年我覺得我們很可能被迫"},{"start":599.605,"end":625.956,"text":"累積幾年之後很可能的避職的壓力就大了到時候很可能就巨幅升職對台灣的製造業也不利啊我覺得委員講的也沒有錯不過我覺得委員也是講到就是說我們要面對問題我們要解決問題我覺得還是這樣子啦也不是說一味的就是說指責他啦我們要面對我們要面對他我們也要解決他"},{"start":626.912,"end":642.099,"text":"是啊 是政府是整體的嘛所以你也參加行政院會嘛是在談到這方面的時候希望你也是你一定是比我們更高明啦但是對政府多一些建言好 謝謝你加油謝謝委員的質詢下一位請袁寬文委員質詢請"}]},"gazette":{"lineno":116,"blocks":[["吳委員秉叡：（9時28分）主席，麻煩請央行。"],["主席：好，請楊總裁備詢。"],["楊總裁金龍：吳委員早。"],["吳委員秉叡：總裁早。剛剛我有在臺下聆聽，如果核心的CPI不到1，只有0.98，那個是很危險的。"],["楊總裁金龍：嗯。"],["吳委員秉叡：中國上個月的CPI是負0.7，通縮不是一件好事。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：CPI在1以下，有陷入通縮的可能性。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：當然，你再加上蔬菜、水果這個季節性的價格調整，不是只有計算核心物價的話是一點多出頭，我以前在這邊跟你對話過，一個國家最好的CPI應該是在2左右，不是越低越好。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：要不然中國應該要高興啊，就像習近平講的，物價下跌有什麼不好，因為他不了解嘛，這個要從總體經濟來看啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：不是只有看這個數字。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，委員講的也沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：川普是美國總統，站在美國的立場，他一定是想要美國比較好嘛。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以其實他從以前的戰略、在競選期間，就是要讓製造業回歸美國。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：全世界現在最大的問題，先跳開總體經濟來講，是站隊的問題，站在哪一隊的問題，現在的供應鏈是要建構非紅供應鏈，因為中國共產黨（CCP）、北韓、伊朗、俄羅斯這些集權國家，本來全球化最得利的是中共嘛。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：現在就是因為中共不遵照世界貿易的規則走，所以必須要讓它離開這個供應鏈，它現在走的戰略是這樣，要看清楚啊！不要看表面。然後常常臺灣人喜歡說，我們是不是要懷疑美國對臺灣不好，我們認為川普是一個狂人。如果你相信民主政治的話，川普在美國，他在選舉人數以及在個別的計算數上，全部都是大幅獲勝，所以美國人很支持這樣的政策。或許他講話比較快，他講了又可以改，跟過去傳統中華文化裡面的儒家思想說為君者必須要謹言慎行，有點不太一樣。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：可是他背後有他的思考跟邏輯脈絡。我們回到國際貿易來講，正常的國際貿易本來就是應該要balance。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["吳委員秉叡：臺灣去年對美國順差多少？七百多億美金欸！換算成臺幣是2兆5,000億，這麼大額的金錢，我們已經是美國順差國裡面排名的前幾名，第五名還第六名嘛。"],["楊總裁金龍：第六名。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以在這種狀況之下，不要說國家對國家啦，假設我們兩個是廠商，你一年賺了我七百多億美金，難道你不會想說應該也要適度地回饋？這個是很合理的啊，難道臺灣的政府對於一個對臺灣一年順差七百多億美金的國家，可以裝聾作啞，當作沒有看到嗎？所以我是覺得你也要從人家的角度思考這些問題。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：你認為像臺灣一年對美國順差這麼多，很奇怪的是跟過去的理論不同，臺幣兌美金還在貶值，照理來講順差多你應該要升值啊！你還在貶值，因為美元強勢嘛！所以你認為這部分應該要怎麼處理呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：當然美國的匯率報告，我想委員也知道這個匯率報告是三項，因為我們第一項、第一個標準經常帳順差還有對美國的順差，我們都……現在就是看第三項，第三項剛剛委員也提到了，不過我們的第三項按照道理我們對它的順差，對美元應該是要升值，但是剛剛也講到川普的交易行情，哇！美國的交易行情，你看看，它從9月份的時候100.78「砰、砰、砰」到1月13號的時候是109，就升值了九點多，這個就是川普行情，所以所有的幣別對它都是貶值。"],["吳委員秉叡：對啊！你看，一個人當選美國總統對全世界影響多大。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，是，是。"],["吳委員秉叡：現在其實是全世界動見觀瞻，大家天天都在聽他要講什麼，天天都在看他要做什麼。另外一點，我相信我們不會刻意去操縱匯率啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：不會，不會，絕對不會。"],["吳委員秉叡：因為我們知道如果被列為匯率操縱國的話，我們就會很倒楣、會糟糕啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：是，第一個，我們也很謹慎啦！因為剛剛委員在講，匯率就實質的貿易來決定，匯率這樣的話應該美元是要貶值的，但是問題因為另外一個金融帳，因為有的金融帳capital flows它的資金進來、它的資金出去，金融帳跟貿易帳這個就不大一樣……"],["吳委員秉叡：是，我知道。"],["楊總裁金龍：所以也就是說，現在基本上匯率大部分都是由金融帳來決定的，而不是貿易帳。"],["吳委員秉叡：但是貿易帳是長期的……"],["楊總裁金龍：是，是。"],["吳委員秉叡：因為不可能去年對美國順差七百多億，今年可能還會再繼續增加，這多年累積的結果，你記不記得當年日本被美國逼著升值，逼著日本的狀況……"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：如果經常性的貿易順差，經年累月這樣累積，我們臺灣得想辦法解決啊！不解決的話，我們將來會面臨這個困境，因為金融帳比較容易浮動，而貿易帳是比較長程的影響。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。我跟委員報告，臺灣目前一直沒辦法解決的問題還是在於我們的超額儲蓄的問題，主計總處不久前就公布我們今年的超額儲蓄大概又是四點五兆。"],["吳委員秉叡：是，所以我有一個看法跟你分享，前幾天台積電的魏哲家董事長在美國白宮跟川普一起開記者會，全世界矚目啊！大家都說這是不得了的影響力，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：可以跟川普在那邊開記者會，而且川普對他的禮遇，他未來的幾年、台積電會增加對美國投資1,000億美金嘛！那個錢如果是由臺灣這邊借貸去的，那當然各家銀行要評估說這個好還是不好，但其實台積電本身有錢嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：是啊，它本身就很多……"],["吳委員秉叡：金融機構也很想借錢給它啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：對，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：因為金融機構都想借錢給有錢人，坦白講是這樣。"],["楊總裁金龍：是啦，沒有錯！"],["吳委員秉叡：這個錢如果能夠到美國去，這也就是一個金融帳的平衡，對不對？至少幾年內可以有點小幫助。第二個其實賴總統也講得很清楚，他希望臺灣的廠商評估，如果合理，也有錢賺，鼓勵大家到美國去投資嘛！是不是？這個都公開講過了，這也是一種金融帳的平衡，如果多一點投資到美國去，我們臺灣就會流多一點點去美國嘛！這個也很好。","再來呢？政府有沒有可能考慮讓臺灣的個人可以直接購買美國的股票？因為現在是複委託，手續麻煩，然後費用又非常的貴，使得交易會變少，當然基於國際互惠，這個要金管會所屬部門跟美國那邊談，這個都可以談。再來，大宗物資的採購、能源的採購如果差價沒有很大，是可以接受的範圍，分散採購來源，對美國大宗物資的採購也是平衡貿易的一個方法啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：要多方努力啦！所以站在這樣的立場講，今天要面對的是……我們要看到問題的根源，而不是指責說那個瘋子每天在跟我勒索，沒有啊！是你一天到晚……臺灣是對他們順差這麼大的國家，前幾名第一名是墨西哥嘛！因為就是它的鄰國，但我們距離它那麼遠，以這樣的經濟體對它的順差是全球第六名，這是很可怕的，我覺得我們很可能被迫要……累積幾年之後，很可能的幣值的壓力就大了，到時候很可能就巨幅升值，對臺灣的製造業也不利啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：是，我覺得委員講的也沒有錯啦，不過，委員講到我們要面對問題，我們要解決問題，我覺得還是這樣子，不是說一味的指責它，我們要面對，我們要面對它，我們要解決它。"],["吳委員秉叡：是啊，政府是整體的嘛！你也參加行政院院會嘛！所以談到這方面的時候，你一定是比我們更高明啦，希望你對政府多一些建言，好，謝謝你，加油！"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝委員鼓勵，謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝吳委員的質詢。","下一位請顏寬恒委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":226,"meet_id":"委員會-11-3-20-2","speakers":["賴士葆","林德福","吳秉叡","顏寬恒","郭國文","賴惠員","李彥秀","鍾佳濱","羅明才","黃珊珊","林思銘","李坤城","王世堅","陳玉珍","王鴻薇","邱志偉","陳冠廷","李柏毅"],"page_start":169,"meetingDate":["2025-03-13"],"gazette_id":"1142701","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1142701_00005"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質\n詢","agenda_id":"1142701_00004"}}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}