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總裁我們的貨幣政策沒有跟美國對 那貨幣政策方面呢我再想就是說第一個就是說以通膨來看的話對美國的通膨的影響會比較大對我們台灣的通膨比較少"},{"start":452.489,"end":465.226,"text":"我之前在質詢你的時候你有提到說CPI年增率要在1.5%以下才會降息是你之前有提過我們看到"},{"start":467.942,"end":479.786,"text":"資料就是說主計處的公布的資料1月份的CPI零增率2.66對擴除這個蔬果跟能源之後核心CPI上漲2.26對所以等於是說"},{"start":484.09,"end":502.157,"text":"不會有降息的情況對不對是總裁是這樣子嘛對不對對應該是啦那去年FED降息的時候我們反而升了半碼所以說央行這邊的態度就是說一定要在CPI年增率在1.5以下才會降息是不是這樣子"},{"start":503.738,"end":530.811,"text":"大體上應該也是可以說這一點是不變的應該也是這樣子我想我能夠理解說央行在制定貨幣政策還有考量這些必須要多重的考量那我是期望說央行能夠審慎的評估靈活的應對因為對於台灣未來經濟發展還有這個整個國家的一個對於美國中國這樣子的一個貿易大戰或者是這種"},{"start":532.372,"end":546.679,"text":"一些政策對於台灣的影響會造成我們的這些企業還有我們這些產業是一個很巨大的變動是好不好會 會 黃安會謝謝總裁會好 謝謝 謝謝委員好 謝謝 謝謝我們嚴委員"}]},"gazette":{"lineno":178,"blocks":[["顏委員寬恒：（9時38分）主席、各位列席官員，大家早。主席，有請我們楊總裁。"],["主席：楊總裁請。"],["楊總裁金龍：顏委員早。"],["顏委員寬恒：總裁早安。首先本席想請教總裁，近日全球最關心的議題，在上週台積電宣布加碼投資美國1,000億美金（臺幣3.3兆以上），讓全世界產業界震驚，然後也成為全美國政壇的焦點。尤其在國會演說時川普也大力讚揚台積電，強調說沒有給錢台積電就來投資，他意圖展現自己比拜登更具有經濟實力、更高明，這顯示出台積電的決策，不僅僅是經濟行為，也牽涉到國際政治，還有經濟競爭，對臺灣而言，最大的擔憂是我們的護國神山出走所帶來的風險。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["顏委員寬恒：我們臺大的副教授邱宏仁指出，這種無避險機制的高成本投資，可能會掏空臺灣的晶圓代工訂單，更可能會快速消耗臺灣的外匯存底。我要請教楊總裁，台積電的巨額海外投資，是否會導致大量美元資金的流出，影響我國外匯存底？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們局處也有針對這個問題討論過，不過我們一直認為在短期之內應該是不至於，我們會慢慢的來觀察它的情況。第一個，你想想看，台積電它到那邊去投資所要的美元，事實上台積電賺的美元是很多的，它不必要在市場買美元然後到那邊去投資，不必要。"],["顏委員寬恒：不是，不是，當然我們臺灣最具競爭力跟影響力的就是以半導體產業為核心的高科技產業……"],["楊總裁金龍：這個沒有錯。"],["顏委員寬恒：在全球供應鏈重組還有地緣政治這樣的一個變動，臺灣企業面臨前所未有的外部壓力，還有內部的挑戰。所以台積電宣布投資1,000億美金只是臺灣高科技產業赴美投資的第一槍，尤其在川普的執政下，恐怕不只台積電，還有更多在臺灣的龍頭企業，不管是半導體、電子、AI這些都受到壓力或者是誘因，將整個產業鏈資金跟技術輸出到美國。所以未來不管是錢、人才，全部都往美國走，不僅是台積電，還有其他的科技龍頭，如果是這樣子的情況，臺灣將會面臨產業跟資金雙重外移的風險嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["顏委員寬恒：剛剛你也提到經常帳、外匯政策一定會有一個很巨大的變動，尤其川普上臺之後，他一定會推動更多的保護主義，美國優先，所以關稅大戰、供應鏈重組、吸引外資這些措施，將對全球經濟帶來極大的變化，所以未來的貨幣政策走向，還有美國對臺科技的政策，資本外流跟外匯存底、國際貿易格局的變化，央行作為維持金融穩定跟貨幣政策決策的一個關鍵機構，我想要提醒楊總裁的是，除了密切關注及提前因應之外，我們還能做什麼？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想基本上剛剛所講的那些是風險，你所說的是風險，而且我總覺得那算是稍微比較極端一點的情況，基本上，我一直覺得臺灣的產業不會一窩蜂整個在很短的時間就掏空出去了，不會，我……"],["顏委員寬恒：不是！你剛剛提到這個，那像台積電要去美國投資1,000億美金，也沒有事先跟政府報告，然後也沒有做一個完整的、很好的準備，我們大家也是在很短的時間才知道它要做這樣的鉅額投資，所以未來難保其他的龍頭企業迫於這種情勢、誘因等等不得不去啊，這個就是我們擔心的嘛！","我再請教總裁有關升降息的部分，因為美國經濟惡化，通膨沒有降溫的趨勢，美國也在這個時間向所有的貿易夥伴發動關稅大戰，包括對加拿大、墨西哥要課徵25%的關稅，另外對中國也加徵10%的關稅，加徵喔，就是在原來基礎上又再加徵，這些舉動讓他們的專家擔心可能會造成美國國內物價的推升，也會引發停滯性通膨的狀況，面臨經濟成長趨勢跟通膨持續升溫的雙重挑戰，在這種情況下，我們央行或總裁有沒有評估過可能對我國的經濟、貨幣政策造成哪些影響？"],["楊總裁金龍：我們也有評估過了，基本上，我總覺得以目前的情況來看，現在說實在的，第一個，他的情況還不是非常明朗，第二個，他對墨西哥、加拿大課徵關稅，基本上我們跟墨西哥跟加拿大，我們對他們的出口基本上占我們的出口及占我們的GDP不大，但是對中國要課徵20%的關稅，這個對我們的影響會比較大一點。為什麼？因為我們對中國大陸的出口目前是31%多，但是這是從42%一直調降到31%，中國大陸到美國去的出口也慢慢的在調整，所以基本上他對中國大陸加徵關稅對我們的影響也是慢慢的在下降當中。我記得第一次川普1.0的時候，對中國大陸課徵關稅，事實上得利的是臺灣，我們臺灣反而沒有受到影響，為什麼？因為那個時候臺商回臺投資，第二個是我們對美國的出口反而更增加。"],["顏委員寬恒：總裁，我們的貨幣政策沒有跟美國同步……"],["楊總裁金龍：對，我們在貨幣政策方面，第一個，以通膨來看的話，對美國的通膨影響會比較大，對我們臺灣的通膨影響比較少。"],["顏委員寬恒：我之前質詢你的時候，你有提到CPI年增率要在1.5%以下才會降息，這個你之前有提過。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["顏委員寬恒：我們看到主計處所公布的資料，1月份的CPI年增率2.66%，扣除蔬果跟能源之後，核心CPI上漲2.26%，所以等於是不會有降息的情況，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["顏委員寬恒：總裁，是這樣子嘛，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，應該是啦。"],["顏委員寬恒：去年Fed降息的時候，我們反而升息半碼，所以央行這邊的態度就是一定要CPI年增率在1.5%以下才會降息，是不是這樣子？很明確的。"],["楊總裁金龍：我想大體上應該可以說是這樣的。"],["顏委員寬恒：這一點是不變的？"],["楊總裁金龍：應該是這樣子啦。"],["顏委員寬恒：我能夠理解央行在制定貨幣政策時必須要有多重的考量……"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["顏委員寬恒：我是期望央行能夠審慎的評估、靈活的應對，因為對於臺灣未來的經濟發展，還有整個國家對於美國、中國這樣的貿易大戰，或者是一些政策對於臺灣的影響，會造成我們這些企業及產業有很巨大的變動，好不好？"],["楊總裁金龍：好，我們會的。"],["顏委員寬恒：好，謝謝總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝委員。"],["主席（林委員德福代）：謝謝顏委員。","繼續請賴士葆召委質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":226,"meet_id":"委員會-11-3-20-2","speakers":["賴士葆","林德福","吳秉叡","顏寬恒","郭國文","賴惠員","李彥秀","鍾佳濱","羅明才","黃珊珊","林思銘","李坤城","王世堅","陳玉珍","王鴻薇","邱志偉","陳冠廷","李柏毅"],"page_start":169,"meetingDate":["2025-03-13"],"gazette_id":"1142701","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1142701_00005"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質\n詢","agenda_id":"1142701_00004"}}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}