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我想我一樣跟賴昭偉一樣關心關於對等關稅的問題不過就數據上來說 賴昭偉講說美國平均3.3% 我們是6.5% 名目上這樣是沒有錯"},{"start":28.068,"end":47.033,"text":"但事實上在貿易金額加權之後的平均關稅台灣其實是2.2%那美國是1.7%也就是相差是0.5%你剛剛講0.5%沒有錯看起來台灣是比較高但台灣之所以比較高的原因是因為農產品比較高所以實質上我們的貿易平均關稅其實是比美國還低"},{"start":51.414,"end":79.028,"text":"所以我要跟你說明這一點所以也就是說對等關稅來說對台灣其實是沒有什麼太大的重啟更何況呢其實我們在整個進出國跟美國之間的一個出口的項目還有這個進口的項目各十大項當中包括這個半導體那個機路電路啦半導體的機械啦等等器具基本上幾乎都是免稅的兩邊都免稅的所以這個部分我看起來"},{"start":79.548,"end":102.159,"text":"看這個部分整個對等關稅看起來衝擊不是很大可是事實上是因為我們的貿易順差劇烈的成長一下子從2023年第九名現在變成第六名然後現在川普一直對於這些順差的國家譬如講第一名的中國大陸或墨西哥都持有高關稅的方式這是讓大家關心的地方"},{"start":103.08,"end":114.735,"text":"現在我想請問一下那個總裁喔到底你認為川普用這個高關稅的政策是一種手段呢還是一種目的那就如同你剛剛回答這個其他委員講說我們要面對問題我們要解決問題是不是我們態度是這樣子"},{"start":118.72,"end":146.517,"text":"然後你在這個報告當中的13頁當中就寫出來主要的這些經濟體有幾個方式就是他們來面對這個高關稅的部分第一個是報復措施PEW獎以加拿大的話他就針對這個秀黛州的部分來進行高關稅來施以報復第二個的部分是雙邊協商第三個部分購買美國商品在上次你報告當中購買美國商品我們要購買農產品、能源跟軍品你有提到就是這三個"},{"start":147.478,"end":173.309,"text":"然後最近又多一個增加對美投資台積電去那1000億那之前我們1600億再加上總統又提到說GDP的部分國防預算要增加到3%而且這個部分我們不會受到三減預算的影響我們一樣維持國防預算的情況底下一年大概採購大概50億美金之多我們的天然氣石油的部分大概加起來一年的話大概是2000億左右的這一個美元"},{"start":174.009,"end":185.985,"text":"在這個情況底下換算起來再將農產品大概十到二十億啊就這些總體數字來說總裁面對問題解決問題你覺得你提出的方法當中還有哪些台灣需要加強的地方"},{"start":187.966,"end":206.61,"text":"我想就是說第二個就是說也要多多跟他們溝通協調有溝通的管道嗎我之所以跳過雙邊協商的部分就是還沒有看到我們有對等溝通的管道啊因為溝通就我們中央銀行的這個職權來講我們就是說匯率報告"},{"start":209.951,"end":236.385,"text":"匯率報告的話呢我們有談到就是說央行跟他們對話是沒有問題是說新的關稅的這個政策下來的時候有沒有新的溝通管道跟對話方式啊這個我就我不曉得啦但是就中央銀行的一個立場溝通我們跳過好不好你不曉得我們就跳過嘛溝通我們就跳過嘛你既然不曉得我們就跳過嘛我們剛剛講的你曉得的部分嘛要怎麼做我念給你聽啊還需要加強什麼"},{"start":239.847,"end":254.814,"text":"想不出來你這麼聰明都想不出來我們怎麼辦嘛對不對我們要面對這個川普的一個貿易政策我跟委員報告事實上我們的台積電去那邊投資對等關稅之外還有報復關稅的問題耶"},{"start":257.075,"end":272.82,"text":"對不對台積電去加漢布朗當加起來是1650億耶但是他以川普他們的野心不是只是一家台積電他希望建立的是產業鏈半導體的產業鏈甚至是半導體的生態系形成所謂半導體的狼帶"},{"start":274.62,"end":292.157,"text":"所以目前這個為止總體經濟來說那個衝擊很大對美的關係關鍵很重要那這樣的情況底下我就說你之前已經有寫出一些方向了嘛那是不是應該在做你總體經濟宏觀的角度再提出一些可能性跟看法關稅只是其中之一了總裁"},{"start":293.038,"end":314.08,"text":"你知道最近川普還提到一個海湖莊園協議這比照華盛頓廣場協議的這個衝擊更大他除了關稅還有匯率還有債務重整三大面向最近他就點名日本跟中國說他操縱匯率那日本很聰明"},{"start":314.961,"end":327.412,"text":"日本之前是1比158現在跳到1比148最近好像又變成146又馬上升值升值的幅度是最快的你去看你這張圖你這張圖是最近"},{"start":330.675,"end":352.001,"text":"央行每天在臉書裡頭更新了最重要的圖為什麼你每天要更新因為知識體態嘛因為國人很關注嘛這個主要貨幣對美的這個升貶幅度的一個關鍵但是就升貶幅度的比較當中我們看出一個關鍵點就是台灣的部分比其他國家來說"},{"start":354.448,"end":365.799,"text":"比較嚴重人家都有升值我們甚至還在貶所以這個問題可能我們會被針對嘛在3月10號的時候是0.12我們還貶值0.42最新的報告當中是0.553月12號"},{"start":373.647,"end":388.062,"text":"所以說在這種情況底下央行有沒有做努力我看是有做努力啦你在報告的37頁當中呢你去年就賣廢了164億嘛很顯然你有逐貶嘛可是你逐貶的情況底下"},{"start":389.159,"end":408.204,"text":"還是貶啊?怎麼辦?總裁我跟委員報告啦基本上呢美國財政部他不會就是說只有觀察你的匯率短時間的一個波動事實上我們現在就貶嘛你超級嘛因為匯率有些時候你要看長的"},{"start":412.287,"end":438.786,"text":"要看長的如果看長的話我有一個數據跟委員報告請說2010年到現在呢我們台幣呢對義蘭的貨幣呢我們升值了將近百分之二十所以照你這樣講我們不會因為這樣子川普點名的中國日本我們不會被點名你是不是這樣子安心沒問題我跟委員報告就是說第一個"},{"start":439.807,"end":469.233,"text":"我們跟美國財政部的一個溝通是良好的他們也知道我們台灣的匯率運作的情況你總裁說沒問題大家就安心了好不好就沒問題嘛可是接下來下個禮拜四我們央行要開這個禮監事會議了下個禮拜四FED也要開這個利率的禮監事會議了他們在凌晨我們在下午如果說他們有這個降息的話對我們壓力可能會比較小"},{"start":470.155,"end":472.504,"text":"可是如果萬一他升息的話那我們該怎麼辦"},{"start":475.226,"end":500.652,"text":"這件事應該會比較有聯動效果吧我跟委員報告啦就是說基本上呢說美國現在要升息這個跟市場的意氣是不大是違背的啦不太可能是不太可能因為現在呢所以只有降息不會升息對而且呢它的降息只是時間的時間的短或是它如果降"},{"start":501.072,"end":520.603,"text":"美元就會貶他如果升美元就會強可是你上一次的會期當中我們在另一個會議室你說美元川普上來美元應該會走強勢貨幣剛剛你回答這一個代委員又說會走貶這不是矛盾嗎沒有沒有沒有沒有矛盾那個委員你看看我們第六頁"},{"start":521.784,"end":545.391,"text":"第二位在那個川普在九月份的時候他的美元的指數是100.78那然後呢到今年的1月13號的時候呢109.96相當於他將近升值了10%所以說還是升值嗎還是升值啊如果他走升值的話那對台灣的壓力就越大嘛"},{"start":545.731,"end":572.044,"text":"你去看一下台灣最近的情況那也不是說只有台灣啦所以我們在這邊但是我不管其他我就管我們嘛他生之後我們會壓力更大你再來看看不過我跟委員報告啦就是說匯率不是看短時間對我知道你剛剛已經強調過了不用再重複我聽到了現在有一個大的問題是台灣現在所處的環境當中是屬於這種minus的利率是負利率"},{"start":573.324,"end":599.615,"text":"這個負利率你在上次的報告當中去年3月你說屬於4宗比較於美國香港但是現在所有的國家你聽我講完所有的國家來說現在minus的就剩下台灣跟日本是最近剛好2月我們的CPI是只有1.58所以說意外稍微轉正一點點總裁你也算是神機妙算但是你如果說換算成台銀的定存的這個比例1.715%的話"},{"start":601.816,"end":624.506,"text":"還是一樣負利率啊所以很多人會把這個利率過低的問題視為房價之所以會高漲問題因為資金取得成本實在太低了嘛一個關鍵的問題好 就來提到你房市的降溫的部分你在P35頁當中的這個部分到底你精簡的幾家銀行都沒有講你只有講說你精簡120"},{"start":627.347,"end":651.032,"text":"然後你最後的講法說你會持續去觀察那你的意思是說你要用經檢的持續經檢的方式來取代可能的第八波的信用管制是不是總裁那當然啊所以沒有所謂的第八波信用管制只有第七波的持續經檢不會只有停在120會持續下去是不是"},{"start":652.514,"end":673.484,"text":"我想我們第七波是配合了它的總量管制那總量管制之後我們第一個我們一定要來檢討就是說它有沒有按照它的一個期程來控制它的對不弄產的放款第二個我們在配合我們的專案精檢"},{"start":674.344,"end":703.243,"text":"我覺得這樣以目前來講的話呢你在B35你講說他們裡頭有一些問題就是哪幾家銀行你也沒有公布麻煩你公布一下或是私底下給我貸款陳述超過法定上限或者變相給予寬帶期這些東西都是違法的事情啊利用其他名目徵貸這裡都沒有寫出來這銀行哪有嚇阻效果啊清檢只有你知道別人都不知道有這麼神秘嗎"},{"start":704.724,"end":726,"text":"我們現在在開秘密會議嗎是是是要不要公佈好好那我就要公佈嘛不是我來讓我們的相關的單位對啊也許我們提供資料給你對啊這公佈公佈公佈提供資料給參議會的問題該公佈就公佈好不好不是我們來那個這個接下來我還會再問你啦謝謝謝謝謝謝各位的質詢下一位請"}]},"gazette":{"lineno":378,"blocks":[["郭委員國文：（10時2分）謝謝召委，有請楊總裁。"],["主席：來，楊總裁請。"],["楊總裁金龍：郭委員早。"],["郭委員國文：總裁你好。我想我跟賴召委一樣關心有關對等關稅的問題，不過就數據上來說，賴召委說美國的平均是3.3%，我們是6.5%，名目上是這樣沒有錯，但事實上，在貿易金額加權之後的平均關稅，臺灣其實是2.2%，美國是1.7%，也就是相差0.5%，所以你剛剛講0.5%沒有錯，看起來臺灣是比較高，但臺灣之所以比較高，是因為農產品關稅比較高……"],["楊總裁金龍：是，最主要是農產品。"],["郭委員國文：實質上，我們的貿易平均關稅是比美國還低，我要跟你說明這一點，也就是說，就對等關稅來說，臺灣其實是沒有什麼太大的衝擊。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，是。"],["郭委員國文：更何況我們的整個進出口，在跟美國之間的出口項目及進口項目各10大項當中，包括半導體、積體電路、半導體機械等器具，基本上幾乎都是免稅的，兩邊都是免稅，從這個部分看起來，整個對等關稅的衝擊不是很大，可是因為我們的貿易順差劇烈成長，一下從2023年的第九名變成現在的第六名，而川普一直對於這些貿易順差的國家，譬如第一名的中國大陸或墨西哥，都持以高關稅的方式，這是讓大家關心的地方。現在我想請問總裁，到底你認為川普用這個高關稅政策是一種手段，還是一種目的？如同你剛剛回答其他委員講的，我們要面對問題、解決問題，是不是？"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["郭委員國文：我們的態度是這樣子，然後你在報告第13頁就寫了，主要的這些經濟體對高關稅的因應措施有幾個方式，第一個是報復措施，譬如以加拿大為例，它就是針對鏽帶州的部分進行高關稅來予以報復；第二個是雙邊協商；第三個是購買美國商品。上次你的報告中提到購買美國商品，我們要購買農產品、能源跟軍品，你提到的就是這三個，然後最近又多了一個增加對美投資，台積電加碼1,000億，包含之前的有1,600億，再加上總統又提到GDP的部分，國防預算要增加到3%，而且這個部分不會受到刪減預算的影響，在維持一樣國防預算的情況下，一年大概要採購50億美金之多，加上天然氣、石油部分，一年加起來大概是2,000億美元左右，再加上農產品大概10到20億，就這些總體數字來說，總裁，面對問題、解決問題，你覺得你提出的方法當中，還有哪些是臺灣需要加強的地方？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想也要多多跟他們溝通、協調。"],["郭委員國文：有溝通的管道嗎？我之所以跳過雙邊協商的部分，就是還沒有看到我們有對等溝通的管道啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：就我們中央銀行的職權來講，我們就是匯率報告，匯率報告的話，我們有談到……"],["郭委員國文：央行跟他們對話是沒有問題，但是這一個新的關稅政策下來，我們有沒有新的溝通管道跟對話方式？"],["楊總裁金龍：那這個我就不曉得，但是就中央銀行的……"],["郭委員國文：對啊！那溝通我們就跳過，好不好？因為你不曉得，我們就跳過嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：我們有溝通管道……"],["郭委員國文：溝通部分我們就跳過，既然你不曉得，我們就跳過。我們剛剛講的，針對你曉得的部分，要怎麼做？我都念給你聽了，還需要加強什麼？想不出來？"],["楊總裁金龍：欸！對啦……"],["郭委員國文：你這麼聰明都想不出來，那我們怎麼辦？我們如何面對川普的關稅政策……"],["楊總裁金龍：不過我跟委員報告，事實上台積電去那邊……"],["郭委員國文：對等關稅之外，還有報復關稅的問題，對不對？台積電去，夯不啷噹加起來是1,650億，但是以川普的野心，不是只是一家台積電，他希望建立的是半導體的產業鏈，甚至是半導體的生態系，形成所謂半導體的廊帶。"],["楊總裁金龍：嗯！嗯！"],["郭委員國文：所以目前為止，就總體經濟來說，那個衝擊很大，對美關係是很重要關鍵，在這樣的情況下，我就說你之前已經有寫出一些方向，那是不是應該就你總體經濟宏觀的角度，再提出一些可能性跟看法？關稅只是其中之一，總裁，你知道最近川普還提到一個海湖莊園協議，比照華盛頓廣場協議。這個衝擊更大，除了關稅、匯率，還有債務重整三大面向。最近他就點名日本跟中國，說他們操縱匯率，日本很聰明，日本之前是1比158，現在跳到1比148，最近好像又變為146，馬上升值，升值的幅度是最快的。你看你這張圖，這張圖是最近央行每天在臉書上更新的最主要的圖，為什麼你每天要更新？因為茲事體大，因為國人很關注主要貨幣對美的升貶幅度，但是就升貶幅度的比較當中，我們看出一個關鍵點，就是臺灣的部分較其他國家嚴重，人家都有升值，我們甚至還在貶，這個問題導致我們可能會被更針對，3月10號的時候是0.42，我們還貶值0.42，最新的報告當中，3月12號是0.55，在這種情況下，到底央行有沒有做努力？我看是有做努力，你的報告第37頁提到，去年就賣匯164億……"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：很顯然你有阻貶，可是阻貶的情況下還是貶，怎麼辦？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，基本上，美國財政部不會只有觀察你匯率短時間的波動……"],["郭委員國文：事實上我們現在就是貶嘛！比較級嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：不，不，因為匯率有些時候要看長期，如果看長的話，我有一個數據跟委員報告，2010年到現在，臺幣對一籃子貨幣升值了將近20%……"],["郭委員國文：照你這樣講，我們不會因為這樣而被點名，川普點名中國、點名日本，我們不會被點名，是不是這樣？我們可以安心，沒有問題？"],["楊總裁金龍：不，不，我跟委員報告，第一，我們跟美國財政部的溝通是良好的，他們也知道我們臺灣匯率的運作情況……"],["郭委員國文：只要總裁你說沒問題，大家就安心，好不好？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，對。"],["郭委員國文：就沒問題嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：對，對。"],["郭委員國文：可是接下來下個禮拜央行要開理監事會議，下個禮拜Fed也要開利率的理監事會議，他們在凌晨，我們在下午，如果他們有降息，對我們的壓力可能比較小，可是如果萬一它升息的話，我們該怎麼辦？這次應該會比較有連動效果吧？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，基本上，美國現在要升息，這跟市場的預期是違背的……"],["郭委員國文：不太可能？"],["楊總裁金龍：是不太可能，因為現在……"],["郭委員國文：只有降息，不會升息？"],["楊總裁金龍：對，而且它的降息只是時間短或是……"],["郭委員國文：它如果降，美元就會貶；如果升，美元就會強，可是上個會期時，我們在另一個會議室，你說川普上來，美元應該會走強勢貨幣，剛剛你回答賴委員……"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["郭委員國文：說走貶，這不是矛盾嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有，沒有，沒有矛盾，委員你看看第6頁，9月份的時候，美元指數是100.78，到今年1月13號是109.96，相當於它升值將近10%……"],["郭委員國文：所以說還是升值嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：還是升值啊！還是升值啊！"],["郭委員國文：好，如果它走升值的話，對臺灣的壓力就越大，你去看一下臺灣最近情況……"],["楊總裁金龍：那也不是說只有臺灣，所以……"],["郭委員國文：對，但是我不管其他，我就管我們，它升值後，我們的壓力會更大，你再看看……"],["楊總裁金龍：不過我跟委員報告，匯率不是看短時間……"],["郭委員國文：對，我知道，你剛剛已經強調過了，不用再重複，我聽到了。現在有一個大的問題是，臺灣現在所處的環境，是屬於minus利率，是負利率，這個負利率你在去年3月的報告中提到是屬於適中，比較於美國、香港，但是現在所有國家……"],["楊總裁金龍：我……"],["郭委員國文：你聽我講完，在所有國家中，現在minus的就剩下臺灣跟日本，最近剛好2月我們的CPI只有1.58，所以意外稍微轉正一點點。總裁你也算是神機妙算，但是如果換算成臺銀的定存利率1.715%的話，還是一樣負利率啊！所以很多人會把這個利率過低的問題，視為房價之所以會高漲的問題，因為資金取得成本實在太低了嘛！一個關鍵的問題。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：再來提到你房市降溫的部分，你在第35頁當中的這個部分，到底你金檢了幾家銀行都沒有講，你只有講說你金檢120，然後你最後的講法說你會持續去觀察，那你的意思是說，你要用持續金檢的方式來取代可能的第八波信用管制，是不是？總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：那當然啊！沒有錯。"],["郭委員國文：所以沒有所謂的第八波信用管制，只有第七波的持續金檢，不會只有停在120，會持續下去是不是？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想我們第七波是配合它的總量管制。"],["郭委員國文：對。"],["楊總裁金龍：那總量管制之後，我們第一個，我們一定要來檢討就是說，他有沒有按照他的期程來控制他對不動產的放款。"],["郭委員國文：對，沒有錯。"],["楊總裁金龍：第二個，我們再配合我們的專案金檢，我覺得以目前來講的話，我們的精進作為……"],["郭委員國文：你在第35頁講說他們裡頭有一些問題，但是哪幾家銀行你也沒有公布，麻煩你公布一下，或是私底下給我……"],["楊總裁金龍：好啊！"],["郭委員國文：貸款成數超過法定上限，或者變相給予寬貸期，這些東西都是違法的事情啊！利用其他名目增貸……"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：這你都沒有寫出來，對銀行哪有嚇阻的效果啊！金檢只有你知道，別人都不知道，有這麼神秘嗎？我們現在在開秘密會議嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：要不要公布？"],["楊總裁金龍：好，那我來跟我們相關的單位討論一下，也許我們提供資料給你。"],["郭委員國文：對啊！公布、公布、公布。"],["主席：提供資料給財委會的委員。"],["郭委員國文：該公布就公布，好不好？好不好？"],["楊總裁金龍：不是，我們來這個……"],["郭委員國文：接下來我還會再問你啦！"],["主席：謝謝。"],["郭委員國文：到底什麼時候給，你要好好給我一個答案啦！好不好？"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝郭委員的質詢。","下一位請賴惠員賴召委。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":226,"meet_id":"委員會-11-3-20-2","speakers":["賴士葆","林德福","吳秉叡","顏寬恒","郭國文","賴惠員","李彥秀","鍾佳濱","羅明才","黃珊珊","林思銘","李坤城","王世堅","陳玉珍","王鴻薇","邱志偉","陳冠廷","李柏毅"],"page_start":169,"meetingDate":["2025-03-13"],"gazette_id":"1142701","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1142701_00005"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期財政委員會第2次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍率所屬單位主管暨財金資訊股份有限公司董事長列席業務報告，並備質\n詢","agenda_id":"1142701_00004"}}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}