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35.18,"text":"薄氏主任吳崑山介紹經濟部超次長林全能綜合規劃司司長莊明慈能源署副署長吳志偉國際貿易署副署長李冠志"},{"start":1939.445,"end":1947.451,"text":"產業發展署主秘林德生中小及創新企業署主任秘書謝榮峰"},{"start":1953.268,"end":1953.809,"text":"現在請中央銀行楊總裁進行專題報告"},{"start":1985.431,"end":2009.198,"text":"主席：各位委員：各位女士先生今天曾邀前來貴委員會報告日圓貶值效應會否導致亞洲貨幣競貶．及對台灣經濟影響自感榮幸以下僅就本行業務相關部分提出報告進行會事指教"},{"start":2011.124,"end":2015.071,"text":"近年來美元走強亞洲經濟體貨幣多層貶值為並未出現競貶值現象且新台幣匯率相對穩定"},{"start":2022.931,"end":2044.668,"text":"近年來日圓對美元匯率及日圓明目有效匯率均呈現大幅貶值及其原因2000年以來日本經濟面臨資產泡沫貨所引發之國內需求萎縮及少子化高齡化等內部結構性問題使其長期陷入"},{"start":2045.749,"end":2070.297,"text":"低利率、低通膨、低成長的經濟困境為因應民間部門資產負債表衰退及通縮問題在2021年底日本前首相安倍晉三推出安倍三件除擴大財政支出及成長策略等兩件外亦包含透過寬鬆貨幣政策來改善日本經濟展望的關鍵一件"},{"start":2072.615,"end":2084.082,"text":"市場一般認為前述寬鬆政策反映日本央行希望藉由日圓貶值來提振日本經濟及擺脫通俗的困境"},{"start":2086.135,"end":2104.065,"text":"2013年4月BOJ推出質量兼備量化寬鬆．不僅使BOJ總資產對日本螢幕ZDP比例由2012年底的30.6%大幅增加．截至2021年底該比例上升至124.8%"},{"start":2107.266,"end":2119.892,"text":"遠超過同期間美國聯準會及歐洲央行資產對美國及歐元區明目GDP比例的增幅使日圓對美元匯率由80日圓兌換1美元"},{"start":2124.821,"end":2143.875,"text":"之後一直日圓兌美元的匯率維持在100到200日圓兌換一美元區間2022年3月FED及2022年7月ECB陸續啟動升息循環截至2024年5月30FED共升息5.25個百分點ECB共升息4.5個百分點而BOJ"},{"start":2153.622,"end":2154.725,"text":"則維持相對寬鬆的貨幣政策。第4月"},{"start":2160.231,"end":2168.639,"text":"在這種情況之下日圓對美元的匯率就在2022年的3月突破了100到120的期間迅速貶值引起BOJ分別在2022年9月及10月以及2024年4月及5月大舉進場干預會試"},{"start":2187.024,"end":2195.153,"text":"但是到2022年3月迄今日圓兌美元仍貶值24.80%日圓NER貶值19.55%本年2020年迄今日圓兌美元會議貶值10.34%日圓NER則貶值7.86%"},{"start":2206.926,"end":2211.41,"text":"二、近年來美元走強只要貨幣及亞洲貨幣多層貶值為並未出現競貶的現象。新來幣貶值居中匯率波動最低"},{"start":2227.59,"end":2256.47,"text":"請翻開第9頁掛無事台灣為小型開放經濟體貿易純度高且外匯市場屬潛疊型維持新台幣匯率相對穩定有其必要長期以來新台幣兌美元波動度多小於日元韓元泰銖馬來幣及澳幣等亞洲貨幣有利於廠商的報價跟經營亦有助國內金融穩定及經濟成長顯示本行維持新台幣"},{"start":2258.531,"end":2285.97,"text":"動態穩定具有成效請翻開第10頁近年日圓貶值效應對台灣整體經濟的影響有限一台灣出口表現主要受全球需求變化影響日圓相對新台幣貶值對台灣整體出口影響不大為推升國人赴日旅行意願且有利台灣企業對日本直接投資或購買技術"},{"start":2289.673,"end":2317.425,"text":"告一,台灣出口表現主要受到國外景氣榮枯的影響．近年,台灣出口成長趨緩細瘦．全球終端需求低迷影響．而非因匯率所致十一月,告二,台灣與日本出口產品的相似度較低．且兩國貿易互補性較高．整體而言,因日圓貶值．日本出口價格競爭力上升的衝擊相對較小"},{"start":2319.857,"end":2336.368,"text":"第12月卦吾三日圓貶值不利日本來台旅客人次增加．唯有助提升國人對於日本之購買力．推升國人赴日旅行意願卦吾四"},{"start":2337.228,"end":2360.555,"text":"就誇敬直接投資而言：企業長期投資主要著眼於未來投資收益及全球佈局策略當前更深受地緣政治、全球供應鏈重組及當地國投資獎勵政策影響而當日圓貶值可提高新台幣對日圓的購買力有利台灣企業對日本直接投資或購買技術"},{"start":2363.496,"end":2384.612,"text":"二近年台灣經濟成長變化主要受國際景氣影響告一全球商品出口量成長率可反映全球需求變化長期以來台灣出口成長率與全球商品出口量成長趨勢一致告二國際景氣波動牽動台灣出口與投資表現影響經濟成長動能第14月節於"},{"start":2393.806,"end":2419.72,"text":"近年來美元獨強至亞幣以主要國際貨幣多層貶值．亞洲各國央行為因應會議大幅波動及減緩輸入性通膨．多採行逐貶措施而不是競貶．至於日圓貶值效應對台灣整體經濟的影響有限以上簡單報告敬請各位委員會室指教謝謝"},{"start":2422.978,"end":2441.091,"text":"好,謝謝楊總裁現在開始詢答,做一下宣告美委員6加2,列席委員5加1今日上午10時截止發言登記請第一位林德福林委員質詢"},{"start":2461.55,"end":2466.132,"text":"謝謝主席是不是請央行楊總裁請楊總裁李委員早總裁你好我請教因為"},{"start":2475.956,"end":2492.421,"text":"我們整個國內的房市在新清安點火下越燒越旺那央行近期邀請房仲業還有銀行業者喝咖啡那接下來央行是否會有新一波的信用管制"},{"start":2495.067,"end":2522.856,"text":"我跟委員報告就是說我們從我們實施選擇性信用管制以來我們都會這個是一個很例行性的我們會請銀行來聽聽他們的意見我們會請一些的專家學者或是房仲偉來跟中央銀行大家來互相討論討論整個的所以這一次並不是非常特殊"},{"start":2524.096,"end":2533.736,"text":"以前我們從選擇性經濟管制之後基本上我們每一季都會舉行這樣的一個討論那你喝完咖啡以後這個"},{"start":2536.434,"end":2555.056,"text":"你們未來會不會擴大來信用管制可能會不排除來調降高總價的租宅門檻會不會我跟委員報告就是說我們基本上每一次我老實跟委員報告我們每一次都會來討論這些的問題"},{"start":2556.878,"end":2571.312,"text":"所以到目前我就說6月13日是我們禮監事會就是6月份的這一次會在6月13日開那這一次開我想會跟以前一樣的都會針對這個議題來討論"},{"start":2574.995,"end":2578.736,"text":"都會針對這個議題來討論所以我就已經跟委員報告了那你現在有沒有什麼想法基本上如果說我們從這個數據來看的話確實就是說第一個我們的房價居高不下而且它的資源還是集中在那個就是說它的那個比例"},{"start":2598.843,"end":2599.583,"text":"總裁4月份整個天候"},{"start":2628.424,"end":2644.87,"text":"不加造成蔬菜價格上升再加上4月份電價的上漲以及6月份夏季電價的實施那央行你怎麼看我們整個國內物價通貨能力2%是未來的一個新形態呢?"},{"start":2647.794,"end":2662.398,"text":"我想就是說委員我跟委員報告就是說上一次呢我們在3月份的禮監事會的時候我們生息辦嘛主要就是說通膨預期因為在那個時候啊我們就是說我們的預測就是說今年的物價可能會2.16就是說2.16"},{"start":2671.461,"end":2686.86,"text":"委員您也知道主計總署最近他也修了他的一個物價CPI的一個水準現在也已經到2.03或2.07的樣子所以呢也就是說但是呢我跟委員報告"},{"start":2688.081,"end":2703.609,"text":"我們的CPI還有扣CPI那還有就是17項的這個民生用品那還有就是說每個月至少購買一次的這個物價水準喔都是慢慢在下來的都是慢慢在下來的"},{"start":2704.71,"end":2711.933,"text":"我請教總裁因為主計總處有更新整個經濟的預測上修今年的全年經濟成長率到3.94%那這個陳淑芝主計長說目前整個經濟的情勢屬於緩慢的上升力道不算強勁還不到"},{"start":2729.96,"end":2742.148,"text":"我請問總裁從現在到年底前的整個景氣狀況你的看法是不是和主計總署一致呢?我想我們上一次我們的經濟成長率我們是3.22好像是3.22不過在第一季主計總署有修改了這個提高了第一季的經濟成長率"},{"start":2757.157,"end":2761.68,"text":"那如果說我們根據第一次的那個經濟成長包括我們234的經濟成長率整個來來重新計算的話呢我們大概會調升到3.5但是呢這個不是我們最後的這個的那個"},{"start":2775.308,"end":2788.461,"text":"現在中央銀行的立場你們跟組織總署是不是有相同的?我想基本上會大致是一樣的我們也看到就是說我們的經濟是在復甦但是不是非常的強勁"},{"start":2790.267,"end":2816.974,"text":"就是如果景氣要是反彈力道持續的軟弱無力那請問你認為目前有沒有景氣再度翻轉往下的這種存在的餘力啊?我想就是說都會有不確定性的因素啦不過這些不確定的因素到目前來看的話好像在影響這個Train這個走勢的好像看不出來"},{"start":2817.694,"end":2833.029,"text":"所以基本上呢我們還是認為就是說是有這樣的往上往上復甦的一個現象總裁上個禮拜央行發布第18期金融穩定報告本席也了解央行事情的四大風險雖然央行強調會密切來關注後續的發展並適時的"},{"start":2838.093,"end":2857.602,"text":"採取因應的措施以促進整個金融的穩定那北溪還是想要請教總裁央行關注的四大風險今年第一次禮監事會就已經提出那請問經過這兩個多月後請問央行關注的後續發展四大風險到底有沒有什麼變化"},{"start":2859.082,"end":2886.636,"text":"還是適當的風險還是適當還是一樣維持如果有變化的話這種狀況是往好的方面還是往壞的方面呢我在想齁就是說其中有一項我們所關注的就是說各個主要經濟體他的那個降息的預期降息的預期這個部分呢可能就是說可能是往好的"},{"start":2888.897,"end":2910.249,"text":"當然啦就是說降息是對市場來講是往好的但是他之所以會降息是因為就是說是慢慢的他的景氣就越來越不好他才會降息包括委員今天也知道加拿大央行今天就他昨天就降息啦那6月份的時候呢可能歐元區呢他也會降息"},{"start":2910.649,"end":2914.413,"text":"總裁,如果都沒有變化,那哪一項的風險成就或發生,你認為對台灣的衝擊會最大呢?"},{"start":2933.21,"end":2950.337,"text":"我在想目前都還是在掌控當中還是在掌控當中總裁因為景氣反彈力道不大那央行又勢警勢盜風險未來整個景氣能是堪慮或許政府官員會以預測機構的說法股市和房市現階段的整個狀況來說服整個外界"},{"start":2959.08,"end":2978.185,"text":"對整個情緒不明會緩轉的一個疑慮但是畢竟實際這個體會感受生活環境會是越來越不友善的是一般的老百姓那對於這個評論這個差距變大前主席長朱哲銘曾說分配"},{"start":2979.045,"end":2999.332,"text":"不均是政府的責任大因此政府要採用各種的財政以及社會福利的支柱改善所得的分配我請問總裁你認為透過財政社會福利政策的改善分配能夠有效緩和整個貧富差距的變大嗎"},{"start":2999.932,"end":3002.675,"text":"因為那個總裁依現況來看貧富差距似乎已經不可逆了"},{"start":3022.293,"end":3043.376,"text":"那如果景氣沒有辦法出現像數十年前台灣整個經濟起飛的時期創造出共存共榮的這種經濟奇蹟那請問總裁你認為長期依賴政府政策補貼過日子的多數民眾能夠真實感受到景氣好轉嗎?"},{"start":3045.037,"end":3063.085,"text":"不過我跟委員報告,基本上我剛剛也是跟委員報告就是說我們今年應該是在復甦的當中,是復甦的當中所以基本上我們的就業率現在來看我們的就業率也是好像是歷史的新低的樣子"},{"start":3065.706,"end":3087.877,"text":"總裁,會不會反而容易讓景氣互輸流於掩耳盜鈴的這種政策的語言?會不會?應該是不會啦。不會喔?是啦。那個總裁,因為國內的整個股匯市的走勢呈現脫鉤相較於整個台股平創新高近期雖然有回檔的壓力但是新台幣匯率"},{"start":3088.977,"end":3101.55,"text":"似乎還是呈現貶值的這種趨勢那請問總裁以目前整個市場供需的氛圍新台幣匯率有沒有可能會繼續貶值失守到32.5元的關卡"},{"start":3103.932,"end":3123.564,"text":"會不會 匯率 第一個我跟委員報告匯率他是供需決定的 那沒有錯啦 那我就說他會不會失守32.5 這個我不敢說啦 這個很難預測 而且呢我們的匯率匯率的走勢就成為我在報告裡面所講的匯率是一個相對性啦"},{"start":3124.704,"end":3142.672,"text":"相對性所謂相對性就是說到整個美元獨強你看看美元獨強所有的貨幣都在貶值的時候新台幣大概也沒辦法就是說置身事外那你如果說大家都在貶只有新台幣在升值好像這個也不是很正常"},{"start":3144.574,"end":3164.893,"text":"總裁,3月底總裁對於新台幣貶不停表示說主要原因是美元超強,那請問經過兩個月美元超強是不是還是新台幣貶值的主要原因?還是嗎?還是。就你了解美元超強的形態,短期內到底有沒有可能發生變化?"},{"start":3165.674,"end":3166.014,"text":"目前整個美國通膨能高"},{"start":3184.207,"end":3202.855,"text":"原本對年準會短期內降息的期待恐怕會落空的機率很大再加上今年美國大選那外界預估11月大選前利率都不可能變動總裁如果年底前美元持續強勢新台幣持續的弱勢請問你認為對國內整個金融市場股會市乃至於說國內的整個經濟環境"},{"start":3210.899,"end":3212.14,"text":"我們應該要如何去因應呢"},{"start":3245.964,"end":3247.346,"text":"主席,麻煩請央行楊總裁請楊總裁"},{"start":3267.718,"end":3286.063,"text":"總裁早剛剛我有在底下聆聽了您的意見其實把全國國民的財富用五等分分成百分之上百分之二十然後最低的百分之二十然後去做比較他們之間的倍數這個很少國家這樣做"},{"start":3287.463,"end":3310.842,"text":"因為有一個理論是有很多國家最低的那20%是minus當然minus跟正數怎麼比那就是無限大倍但是台灣因為最低的無等份的這個家庭這個儲蓄有77萬那當然最上面的20%平均是1000多萬將近快要2000萬所以比起來有60幾倍的差距"},{"start":3312.302,"end":3326.409,"text":"這樣子的計算到底合不合理以及跟全世界比較起來是不是台灣就真的貧富差距非常的懸殊我跟委員報告基本上據我的了解我們應該是還好"},{"start":3329.286,"end":3354.218,"text":"就是以那個基年係數來回應還好嗎?對,我們還好。第二個,但是呢,雖然我們就是還好,但是呢,也就是說我們的貧富不均的這個比例稍微有在提升。那這個是一個比較...這個我想是全球化之後,一個通常的現象。那我在想的是這樣子,你剛剛也有提到說如何去讓這個基..."},{"start":3355.939,"end":3356.159,"text":"我非常同意"},{"start":3380.109,"end":3396.522,"text":"所以你剛剛講的社會救助這個是一個現代化國家尤其是台灣其實台灣的社會安全網社會救助做得不錯當然是還有可以繼續精進繼續往好的方向做的方式重要的是不要去漏掉哪一部分的人對沒有錯沒有錯"},{"start":3397.783,"end":3418.709,"text":"那你說在民主國家然後在我們這樣的環境要強求壓制所有的人要把富人壓制下來跟大家平均讓這個倍數不要變大我覺得這個不是好方法有能力的人願意努力的人或是有機運的人他得到比較好那我們政府用比較高的稅收來彌補"},{"start":3420.809,"end":3445.07,"text":"再來就是說對於那個機運不好或是他的原來的他原來的資本就不夠使得他會在這個社會上必須靠勞力賺錢等等生活有困難或是因為疾病等等因素的你要用社會安全網把他拖住讓他有可以繼續生活讓他這個社會他以及他的下一代將來在這個社會上還有可以增長甚至穿越這個"},{"start":3447.295,"end":3467.944,"text":"⋯⋯"},{"start":3467.944,"end":3495.179,"text":"簡單來講"},{"start":3495.199,"end":3496.719,"text":"我個人比較主觀的認為說他對美元貶值是有益的"},{"start":3523.387,"end":3525.468,"text":"所以當美元這麼 利率這麼高的時候日幣還在貨幣寬鬆啊"},{"start":3548.817,"end":3569.847,"text":"其實日幣如果當然這個影響很大那如果他不要量化開售他就不會貶得這麼快那這個目的我個人來觀察是希望讓日本的製造業也有機會回流日本委員說得沒錯我也蠻同意的而且我們以前在這個地方請教過一個觀念一個國家的CPI"},{"start":3573.379,"end":3586.474,"text":"零是不好的捏,零是通縮捏,你剛剛看你的表裏面,你的報告表裏面有沒有,日本那些年的CPI很低啊,甚至買到死啊,結果整個國家的經濟就在通縮,通貨緊縮的狀況。"},{"start":3588.513,"end":3614.409,"text":"以前跟你談過的概念你也很認可就是CPI在2左右是好的那如果低於1是有通縮的危險高於3那當然就不好了那就是很快的通貨膨脹所以我們覺得觀念要矯正不要讓錯誤的觀念一直流傳說有CPI是正的好像就把它講得不好其實台灣如果今年能夠控制在2.0幾"},{"start":3616.645,"end":3620.049,"text":"我媽媽跟我講他民國51年結婚的時候他那時候一碗剉冰我們現在吃的剉冰一碗五角"},{"start":3642.006,"end":3667.681,"text":"現在動輒一兩百嘛對不對好一點的還不止欸但是至少也近百塊嘛所以就以經濟國家經濟在成長在戰場的過程中有適度的通膨逐年累積是正常現象是是委員講的沒有錯啦基本上呢我們有說物價在上漲事實上呢物價雖然也在上漲但是呢它的品質啊"},{"start":3668.181,"end":3696.33,"text":"我剛剛那個委員在講說以前的那個剉冰五角跟現在的剉冰一百塊兩百塊但是你要想想看現在的剉冰一百塊兩百塊但是它的料你來看看它的料跟以前的料來比較的話現在的料是它的裡面的那個東西是比以前好得多也就是說物價雖然上漲了但是它的品質也提升了很多那我現在講一個"},{"start":3697.458,"end":3710.208,"text":"你這個觀點我也贊成但是也有比較沒有物料變化的像豬肉也是變化的很大啊對不對豬肉豬肉以前一斤多少錢現在多少錢你看那個年代就知道了好我現在講另外一個那個現在"},{"start":3712.179,"end":3734.89,"text":"被猜測可能遇到的問題現在中國的因為他現在都是傾銷所以歐洲美國這個大的經濟體可能會對他實施關稅的制裁加他的關稅或是對他的傾銷調查那有人說中國對這一招他還有一招可以抵抗就是把人民幣貶值"},{"start":3736.791,"end":3756.003,"text":"你現在美國假設加他10%的關稅加到20%的關稅他把人民幣也貶值的時候就國際貿易來講去他中國那邊購買這些貨品價格是一樣的啊對不對美國的關稅加20%他如果對美金貶值20%那就就以購買者而言他"},{"start":3758.007,"end":3779.833,"text":"加上關稅之後的價格跟現在是一樣的所以就有人在猜測說人民幣可能會貶值而且會在一定的時間內會快速貶值這個不知道你的看法怎麼樣我跟委員報告基本上就我們目前在觀察人民幣它不大敢貶值"},{"start":3782.822,"end":3799.292,"text":"為什麼呢?因為第一個他有外債外債你貶值的時候外債會更多因為他的廠商我就說不是他國家的外債而是他的廠對國外那個什麼借錢那第二個呢他的 capital outflows"},{"start":3800.246,"end":3824.136,"text":"如果說他貶的時候也有可能會加速他的資本的外流他有一點怕所以你看看我們也仔細所以在我們這個報告裡面我們也有談到他事實上他現在也是有一點主貶所以也就是說貶當然是人家一般所講的雙面刃"},{"start":3827.998,"end":3828.419,"text":"我瞭解因為"},{"start":3842.895,"end":3863.332,"text":"美國跟歐洲的加關稅不是現在是未來嘛那加了關稅之後因為中國是一個匯率他控制的國家他有可能在一夕之間突然之間宣布貶10%我講的是有可能的狀況所以呢委員你這講事實上我們都會密切注意對我就要提醒說這個也要考慮在內因為這個都會影響到"},{"start":3867.175,"end":3884.549,"text":"國際之間的貿易公平性以及台灣的日歐穩定我們在這個這麼多的風浪中求穩定這是一個很重要的價值這也是一個很好的價值這是央行央行你們一直到現在一直都做得很不錯的部分好不好繼續加油謝謝謝謝下一位質詢請賴世保賴委員"},{"start":3902.153,"end":3907.641,"text":"謝謝主席以及各位先進有請央行的楊總裁請楊總裁"},{"start":3917.185,"end":3946.037,"text":"我們理事會下個禮拜開嘛是吧對沒有錯那現在看起來今天歐洲央行理事會所渴望降息外界的揣測加拿大已經降息了開啟7-11的第一槍那歐洲央行一般估算是跟進事實上瑞士瑞士前一陣子也降息瑞士所以應該可以降息他們會降息"},{"start":3946.916,"end":3970.833,"text":"我們會討論在6月13日因為很抱歉啦我就說剛好就是說我們這10天之內啦我們接木起第一個接木起第二個呢也就是說那是委員會嘛委員會的話委員討論的結果才會在那一天才會公佈嘛所以我現在在講的話也不見得就是這樣子"},{"start":3974.96,"end":3993.446,"text":"可是你會參考這些吧?那當然當然那當然我們也會就是說是怎麼樣整個全球我們會考慮就全球的整個的經濟情況是怎麼樣第二個呢全球的主要的央行他的貨幣政策的一個的主向是怎麼樣這個都我們都會討論的"},{"start":3995.779,"end":4003.707,"text":"一般預估下週美國Fed不會降息因為現在市場是覺得就是說應該是還是不會因為CPI控制得合宜因為剛剛我也在講現在看起來好像因為前一陣子前一陣子它一直那個經濟還是很危險還很強韌的時候"},{"start":4019.984,"end":4042.639,"text":"所以市場呢一度認為就是說他大概今年是不會降不過呢最近又有一點變化就是說他的經濟是確實有在slow down有在下來而且呢他的通膨的一個控制呢也是在慢慢的所以降息迟遲經濟所以他現在呢也是市場上也在講就是說可能他9月份喔可能9月份會降息喔"},{"start":4044.5,"end":4044.62,"text":"不過就是說這種方向這樣因為"},{"start":4065.39,"end":4081.24,"text":"因為他這個費的這些的主要的成員都一直認為就是說他現在的利率已經是足夠的高了不會再升息只會往下我們的利率會不會足夠高"},{"start":4083.366,"end":4090.193,"text":"我跟委員報告我們的情況是跟美國稍微有點不太一樣但是我跟委員報告事實上我們現在利率是15年以來15年半以來的最高"},{"start":4101.084,"end":4118.432,"text":"最高15年半以來所以隱含的意思楊總裁今天的話裡面就隱含有降息的空間我也沒有這麼說我的意思就是說我們要不要降息要看我們通膨率我這樣說你不能否認嗎"},{"start":4125.741,"end":4128.124,"text":"你說要參考地緣政治調整貨幣的政策"},{"start":4139.802,"end":4164.625,"text":"結果國際危機組織說臺灣臺海局勢惡化很非常的惡化請問你怎麼樣調整貨幣政策我跟委員報告這個惡化不惡化有些時候我們從金融市場有些時候就是說當然是不是實際上是不是惡化但是呢我們觀察的是金融市場"},{"start":4165.866,"end":4173.933,"text":"我們是觀察的是金融市場但是我跟委員報告以目前來看的話我們金融市場是沒有受到影響的"},{"start":4175.131,"end":4201.379,"text":"所以不必調整這個都會討論的啦所以就你來講沒有惡化啦但是國外的組織認為台海惡化這是國際的組織他們看的請問你今天股市又大漲當然漲就大家高興你會不會擔心股市過熱你就有提到ETF你有提到ETF那這個"},{"start":4204.926,"end":4232.772,"text":"你的對策是什麼?我想是這樣子股市一般來講的話只要因為基本上股市跟股市過熱也許他就會做correction現在有沒有過熱?但是我跟委員報告因為一樣的匯率跟股市都是全球聯動"},{"start":4234.386,"end":4235.067,"text":"因為要判斷它過熱不過熱有些時候是很難的"},{"start":4263.047,"end":4283.802,"text":"是很難的,我也不能...因為你看全球都是...因為大家會擔心過熱油就泡沫所以現在在...所以一般來講的話對市場主管機關特別是監管會我相信他都會說居高思維"},{"start":4285.343,"end":4290.705,"text":"對投資人來講呢,都是居高思維當然啦,也是居高思維所以現在已經高了?現在已經高了?算是,如果說以歷史來講"},{"start":4303.47,"end":4328.625,"text":"我跟委員報告啦基本上我們是歷史新高 對不對日本也是歷史新高美國也是歷史新高歐洲也是歷史新高有一個講法說美國大選美國大選今年11月嘛是吧11月之前全球的金融市場都會繼續好這個你同意嗎"},{"start":4330.366,"end":4348.613,"text":"金融市場你只能說你只能說很密切密切的去關注他你不要去做太那個的那個什麼預測有些說當然我們是私下預測但是公開的預測是不必要的"},{"start":4349.175,"end":4353.098,"text":"但是我們的貨幣政策我們要預測CPI我們要預測我們的經濟成長率這個是我們的職責那預測股市這個不是我們的職責請那個你先不要走請經濟部次長好不好一起好不好請經濟部林次長那個沒有楊總裁還是請問你啊"},{"start":4374.571,"end":4383.678,"text":"你有沒有這樣房市是不是過日房市你擔不擔心房市過日因為股市一直漲啊大家欠賺啊房市一直推新高"},{"start":4385.113,"end":4388.196,"text":"外界關係說你的信用管制措施會不會再激出來外面也有在傳言說"},{"start":4408.217,"end":4410.198,"text":"從我們選擇性信用管制以來我們都會找一些專家學者還有銀行我們都會來座談瞭解一些一般的市場的狀況"},{"start":4432.944,"end":4458.503,"text":"那這一次呢我們也是一樣是這樣子做的啊所以呢我想呢我們6月13號禮監事會的時候我們也會來討論這個議題我就是一句話不排除祭出選擇性的信用關稅這個到時候就會知道啦好謝謝喔那個市長市長我就問你一句話就好了喔委員好昨天的經濟部的你們長官啊郭部長他公開說了"},{"start":4460.302,"end":4472.195,"text":"他說只要修法通過和二和三可以演繹你知道這個事吧?媒體這麼大的報導都有啊但我就是請你轉告部長一句話趕快提修法"},{"start":4481.281,"end":4486.784,"text":"委員那個修法那個是核子管制設施的辦法不是經濟部主管的經濟部沒有辦法去提出修法"},{"start":4507.21,"end":4521.877,"text":"你要他們誇部會講一下啊叫或者請民進黨團的提啊 對不對現在沒有法喔 對不對所以這個話叫空話如果你今天這種態度的話那就要打假球"},{"start":4523.09,"end":4550.069,"text":"我想我只是就法律的部門跟委員會打架那要解決的話怎麼會一個就在行政部門的高官會說哎呀 這個不是我主管你去協調啊還不簡單你協調這個東西還不簡單對不對 請民進黨的提案就好了 對不對現在來講國民黨的提案了給你們啊你們也不要去修也不要去處理啊然後呢"},{"start":4552.352,"end":4552.892,"text":"郭國文 郭昭瑋"},{"start":4582.513,"end":4585.276,"text":"主席有請楊總裁昨天央行也有公布外匯成底高達5728億美元最近外資持有股票債券的部分也超高達7509億"},{"start":4607.715,"end":4629.862,"text":"我記得101年的外匯存底突破4000億的時候那時候外資所佔比大概是只有55%那現在外資的佔比已經高達相對於外匯存底來說已經131了這個部分呢你的報告書也有提到所謂的地緣政治的問題那我想請問一下關於這一點你有沒有進行任何的壓力測試"},{"start":4630.942,"end":4642.189,"text":"啊?壓力測試?所謂的壓力測試齁?我不曉得那個委員所謂的壓力測試,你的意思是要說萬一有什麼事情嗎?房市都要進行壓力測試嗎?"},{"start":4646.571,"end":4666.746,"text":"不過委員的所謂的壓力測試跟我們平常我們就是說在什麼情況之下我們會做怎麼樣的處理在什麼情況之下我們會做怎麼樣的處理都是一樣這個是scenario的那個一個最極端的情況之下是什麼情況"},{"start":4671.043,"end":4697.391,"text":"我想就是說在這個允許我啦委員允許我就是說我們在這個就是說在這個在議堂裡面國會議堂裡面我們我在這邊講極端的話好像我總覺得有難言之語有難言之語但是就是有壓力測試但是有我跟委員報告有啦"},{"start":4698.171,"end":4707.315,"text":"各種情況的壓力測試你都在準備當中你有18套的劇本對你就是有18套的劇本嘛都有劇本我覺得你這要讓國人安心阿萬一這個熱錢齊流急退的話就很麻煩了而且現在整個外資進來的金額都越來越高"},{"start":4727.783,"end":4744.128,"text":"另外我關心一下有關於我們做了總體信用管制做了很多的努力總共花了5次的信用管制但5次下來我不曉得總裁你心情有沒有挫折感你看內政部最近要公布第4季的價格的住宅指數高達136.2這連續漲了5年一來是歷史新高"},{"start":4749.75,"end":4758.768,"text":"二來他的交易量也是史上第二高是31.6是13年來的新高史上第二高也就是價量奇養"},{"start":4761.643,"end":4787.592,"text":"價量其樣的結果就是我們總體信用管制失效啊講白一點是這樣子啊那個委員如果說把這個就是說它的價跟量的一個變化然後單獨來說就是說選擇性信用管制就結果論嘛講白一點我們就結果論結果論我跟委員報告事實上選擇性信用管制是有效的"},{"start":4788.41,"end":4808.775,"text":"有效,如果沒有這樣子的話更嚴重,對不對?總裁你既然這麼講,這麼有信心講有效,那有效的程度到哪裡?我承認不會說沒有效啦,老實講,我不會說沒有效,但是效果沒有達到壓制價跟量的結果嘛,事實嘛"},{"start":4809.955,"end":4815.819,"text":"我相信你有效果,你如果沒有管制的話可能會更嚴重嘛,對不對?那原因在哪裡?"},{"start":4815.819,"end":4815.839,"text":"對不對?"},{"start":4833.032,"end":4853.471,"text":"最近的整個儲蓄以前啊這一整年都是超過3兆今年預估超過4.21兆今年第一季就超過1.5兆了對不對問題出在哪裡總裁所以問題出在哪裡我們來想一想嘛是不是我們有所力道有所不足我再讓你看一下這個房價暴漲的狀況台北啊"},{"start":4857.369,"end":4863.213,"text":"2002和2004的比較起來已經快到119了,119耶!118.58耶!競會法是119了耶!你去看看有沒有,臺北帳幅還比較少,帳幅最多是新竹縣市高達88.3%耶!總體而言49.5啊!"},{"start":4880.204,"end":4904.876,"text":"總共大概5%網路上最常提到的當然你說不要針對個別產業來做所謂的這個利率的調整可是網路上最常提到的謝金河也這樣講長期的低利率造成這個房價的元兇你6月13日就要討論了剛剛還有委員說你是不是暗示降息你剛剛說降息"},{"start":4906.056,"end":4906.076,"text":"總裁"},{"start":4924.264,"end":4953.151,"text":"還沒有招啊?6月13日有沒有新招啊?我想我們6月13日會討論會討論,你剛才是講會討論嘛對啦,會討論但是你的那個風向球已經拿出來搖了啦你那個側風向的風向草還不是小草喔你拿出來側風向的風向草已經拿出來了你的風向草有兩支風向草第二支的風向草我就不講了我跟你講一支的風向草你另外一支現在看起來比較有可能這一支的風向草啦"},{"start":4954.62,"end":4978.226,"text":"這次的風向草是什麼就是隨著財政部調整豪宅標準央行是否跟進財政部之前的豪宅標準7000台北市降為6000新北市6000降為4000新竹桃中南高4000降為3000其他先是4000降為2000"},{"start":4981.021,"end":4999.944,"text":"依照現在央行標準是有落差的喔是一國兩制的喔我們台灣的財政部跟央行的這個豪宅標準不同央行的這個標準何來這個本席就很難以理解啦央行說7000新北6000然後其他的4000"},{"start":5002.023,"end":5017.698,"text":"請問一下這一題會不會納入討論我想我們都會討論啦都會討論 這題也會討論嘛我們也會討論會討論嘛 慎重討論是 我們會討論也是新招之一的可能性反正是會討論啦反正會討論啦是啦 反正會討論好 最後我問你一個問題啦那個市長您上來一下齁"},{"start":5023.263,"end":5037.783,"text":"總裁對你今天報告我只有一點沒有辦法贊同你就結語當中的第一點說因為加上近兩年日本這個貿易戰均為逆差日圓因而大幅貶值"},{"start":5038.624,"end":5038.824,"text":"日圓貶值"},{"start":5055.555,"end":5071.483,"text":"不是說一直都是逆差喔沒有沒有啦我說逆差一直以來逆差很清楚嘛沒有他沒有一直逆差以來他是2021年以後才逆差的是這幾年才逆差嗎對啊逆差那你就告訴我"},{"start":5071.843,"end":5075.487,"text":"為什麼日本進口商品網路代購的藥裝食品民眾想要問的明明日圓貶值這麼多了為什麼沒有降價"},{"start":5098.305,"end":5100.007,"text":"市長,您給本席一個答案。"},{"start":5124.878,"end":5150.899,"text":"我想我沒有特別深入研究不過應該是有比較很多元的因素嘛第一個部分就是說可能這個進來的這個你沒有深入研究本席請你好好去研究一下我們一定會去尋找這個最最最最真潔的原因在哪邊對啊這是消耗整個權益問題啊明明貶值貶這麼多難道要去日本買才會便宜來台灣買日本商品就不會便宜一樣是日圓改成台幣"},{"start":5151.92,"end":5152.922,"text":"我向委員報告 我覺得可能這商品的那個"},{"start":5161.055,"end":5182.554,"text":"臺日之間的對話你有沒有參與啊?我沒有參與你沒有參與那是陳正琦在管的喔陳正琦在管你回去跟陳正琦講一下跟你部長講一下啊這沒道理嘛對不對好不好總裁這個部分再麻煩你啦期待啦對你充滿期待你的新招數謝謝總裁謝謝市長謝謝委員指教"},{"start":5191.943,"end":5193.886,"text":"賴委員賴委員謝謝主席有請那個楊總裁楊總裁"},{"start":5207.207,"end":5223.677,"text":"總裁早 總裁早 總裁我針對的今天就是日幣的持續的一個貶值 那跟台幣就是會跟著升還是貶 那其實台灣我們知道就是在近期我們的出口景氣是非常好的"},{"start":5224.457,"end":5251.628,"text":"那這個台幣會升還是會貶影響到就是說我們整體我們的社會的一個通膨那在這裡我們要請教就是總裁就是說如果今天新台幣不得不隨其他的一個東南亞的一個幣值真的跟他們競爭的時候我們有什麼手段可以降低或是避免不必要的一個衝擊呢總裁有沒有什麼樣的一個手段"},{"start":5253.995,"end":5268.973,"text":"你是說我們如果說沒有跟他一同貶值的時候是那我們要如何來維持我們的競爭力是不是對是不是這個意思沒有錯那當然我想我直覺上我只能跟委員報告是"},{"start":5269.654,"end":5286.216,"text":"除了就是說你的生產力提高,你的品質好,那只有大概是這樣子,還有就是說你的Marketing我正講的是央行的一個政策央行政策是沒有啊,因為我們只管匯率啊"},{"start":5286.696,"end":5293.783,"text":"所以我們還是堅持主張就是央行是不會去干預就是這個匯率的一個升還是潛嗎?沒有,基本上我們針對我們就是說"},{"start":5302.27,"end":5331.61,"text":"基本上雖然我們就說我們看看其他的那個必別是他的身邊怎麼樣我們是看而已但是主要的還是要看你個別的你的供需你的供需你的市場的一個秩序怎麼樣如果說我們覺得怎麼會這樣子怎麼會進來那麼多會出去那麼多而且是在很短期間那這樣的話呢中央銀行的職者呢維持市場的秩序"},{"start":5333.555,"end":5353.88,"text":"維持市場的秩序是什麼意思呢就是說讓我們的新台幣的匯率的升貶的波動弧度不要太高也不要太低因為你太高的話那我們的廠商他怎麼要報價那就是說你會去堅持就是說也是不主動干預"},{"start":5354.56,"end":5355.38,"text":"基本上我跟委員報告"},{"start":5380.046,"end":5409.267,"text":"就是說當然我們也會因為這個我們報告也有講到就是說基本上那個從2022年一直到2023年日本也好那個日本韓韓韓還有我們台灣也一樣的主要還有新加坡這些你看看他之所以會干預他也是在扛盛除了剛剛我跟委員報告也就是說他的匯率波動太大"},{"start":5410.668,"end":5432.626,"text":"對金融的問題不好另外一個呢就是您所說的一樣的就是說這個你貶的太多不好對通膨你講的沒有錯當然我們知道波動是不好的我現在是在講的就是央行的一個態度那誠如昨天就是我們的經濟部長他在經濟委員會裡頭他是先是就是說經濟部不支持繼續補貼台電那"},{"start":5435.769,"end":5436.61,"text":"會不會呢?你的看法"},{"start":5452.659,"end":5461.847,"text":"這個經濟部長他做這樣的一個主張我再想也有他可能因為我沒有我沒有會不會嘛你看這個就是不能貼台電的話那台電的電價就是會漲嘛那是不是漲了以後跟著通盤就上來了"},{"start":5470.314,"end":5486.165,"text":"委員這樣的推論好像就是說跟前面這一段的期間來推論沒有我是這樣的一個推論嘛我是這樣的一個推論如果央行在做決策的時候你到底是看"},{"start":5487.006,"end":5490.427,"text":"總裁我再請教你通膨到底對一般民眾的影響是大還是小"},{"start":5516.795,"end":5545.118,"text":"你要回答我這個問題我跟委員報告就是說通膨對一般民眾的影響大還是小我跟委員報告一般我們看的專案銀行看的就是CPI對那CPI因為它的選項368項它的範圍非常廣是那我們民眾的影響大或是小基本上我們大部分都是看什麼都是看那個就是說我們"},{"start":5546.638,"end":5566.704,"text":"一個月裡面至少購買一次的因為他都購買一次的那個民生用品還有就是說那個17項的那一個那我再跟你請教啦就是說本席的選區是農業跟很多的一個退休人員那如果就是存款的利息趕不上通膨的時候"},{"start":5567.484,"end":5588.707,"text":"這一些一般的民眾他如果是靠著存款的利息過日子的話那如果你通膨一直漲的時候一般的民眾他是不是會想辦法就是說他要去投資他要去買資產可是他不一定有錢那他可能會舉債這個其實你看台灣銀行的一個那個利率他一年期只有1.17而已"},{"start":5590.248,"end":5619.354,"text":"那像這樣子的話1年期1.17沒有啊1.715不好意思1.715那這樣子的話這些退休人員怎麼辦呢所以相對的就是說CPI的指數如果沒有符合到體感的時候大家都喜歡跟你探討就是說黃豬以黃豬的一個那個指數來做一個例子這其實我們四周周邊的人大家都覺得說黃豬是一直在漲的"},{"start":5620.334,"end":5635.704,"text":"但是這三年的房價也是直直漲可是相對的就是說你一定要告訴我說這個房價跟這個你們沒有關係可是怎麼可能沒有關係呢那房租有沒有可能也漲這個其實一直在漲我們就用這張圖來反映現實的一個狀況"},{"start":5638.766,"end":5653.891,"text":"那這一個就是要跟總裁做一個探討就是說為什麼就是漲幅平穩就是這個一定是有問題的這個你們這是可以不可以做一個大數據自己去調查"},{"start":5654.611,"end":5663.137,"text":"因為財政部他講說實際的那個租用的房屋的一個租金他私有的房屋他才用那個1300戶那在這個22個縣市幾乎一個縣市只抽到了一個60戶這個是太離譜了"},{"start":5669.701,"end":5670.141,"text":"委員 我跟你報告齁"},{"start":5695.168,"end":5719.523,"text":"這個統計數據是我們主計總署他去根據全國的一個統計來做的那所以呢你這盒說是真的CTI數據那沒有方向感的央行這個我跟委員報告沒有央行的方向感就是主計已經提供給你我跟委員報告我看的我不是只有看影響租金你有沒有辦法就是說自己做一個大數據的調查呢"},{"start":5723.623,"end":5743.219,"text":"我想我們這個我們可以跟主席總署來那個就說你的統計啊一個國家的統計啊他是有一定的專業的單位的那我們不能就說不過呢委員的建議啊我倒是可以我們來跟那個什麼主席總署我們來討論看看啦"},{"start":5744.56,"end":5769.921,"text":"看看是怎麼來就像你說的你跟他講就說他的那個什麼他的數據失真他的統計調查這個呢我總覺得我來跟主席總署我來跟他們來講教那在這裡拜託總裁這個今天就是拜託你們密切去注意日幣的貶值的現象是不是會造成台幣異常的一個升或是貶"},{"start":5770.782,"end":5770.862,"text":"好謝謝好好謝謝"},{"start":5789.717,"end":5801.324,"text":"希望你跟主席處能夠就是共同的一個探討我們自己作為一個大數據的一個自行評估的可行性我們可以來請教他而且也可以跟他討論就針對這個問題謝謝謝謝主席謝謝下一位請嚴寬衡嚴委員"},{"start":5819.216,"end":5826.98,"text":"主席各位先進大家好主席我想請央行我們楊董事長請楊總裁楊總裁早總裁早"},{"start":5836.885,"end":5864.393,"text":"總裁我們都知道虛擬貨幣是虛擬貨幣它不屬於法定貨幣是不是而且就你先前也說過說它無法調解然後波動價格波動大也沒有球場的管道也非常容易被不法的人士來利用那最近我們委員會常常在討論到那尤其我觀察到我們很多的這些傳統的地下會隊像這些營樓或者是業者"},{"start":5865.394,"end":5880.808,"text":"在台灣收這些台商或移工的現金然後就立刻從大陸或東南亞的這些戶口去撥款如果被抓到因為銀行法的罰則很重"},{"start":5882.079,"end":5909.541,"text":"那所以不消息者現在也趕著流行把這些過去張者直接兌換把它改成用虛擬貨幣用虛擬貨幣所以利用這種虛擬貨幣來做一個乾坤大農委員假設被查處了被查獲了也會被司法機關認定說不是法定貨幣所以就是這就是一個大漏洞也許因為這樣子他不會被判刑不會被判罪那所以"},{"start":5911.63,"end":5928.712,"text":"﹗"},{"start":5932.145,"end":5945.964,"text":"我想就是說就是說委員剛剛在講到就是說這個會對的問題啦那基本上就是說我們不要就是說只說看那個會對啦"},{"start":5947.91,"end":5971.583,"text":"如果說就這個跨境的移轉你用這個虛擬通貨的話他就比較容易那我跟委員報告就是說像中國大陸中國大陸為什麼說他會禁止這些的虛擬的廠商在那邊挖礦"},{"start":5973.069,"end":5993.606,"text":"主要的也就是說這些呢所以呢那不只是說禁止他挖礦而且呢禁止交易為什麼就是說這個用虛擬通貨來做跨境的一個支付不要就是說是地下會對啦就是這個這個他是很容易啊他是很容易所以他才禁止他"},{"start":5995.244,"end":5995.644,"text":"那當然就是說現在呢"},{"start":6009.502,"end":6032.772,"text":"要怎麼來管理他現在就重點在於就是說你要如何來管理這些這些的虛擬通貨的這些的業者對啊對啊這個是問題這個就是問題所以才請教總裁因為我們在委員會的討論金管會主委都有討論到我們也要求說要盡速把這個專法趕快要報上來現在大家都很著急而且這個"},{"start":6039.318,"end":6060.319,"text":"造成後面延續衍生出來這些詐騙或犯法的行為沒有錯沒有錯沒有辦法去規範我委員講的沒有錯對對對我委員講的總裁我再請教日圓持續的貶值創下34年最低點很多民眾都持續購買日幣因為很多人都喜歡到日本去旅遊"},{"start":6060.839,"end":6078.625,"text":"到目前為止已經大概回復到疫情前大概八成以上那今年已經有420萬超過420萬的這個台灣的這個國人到日本去旅遊那總消費金額已經超過新台幣1635億超越中國也超越韓國居冠這個龍頭的地位"},{"start":6086.508,"end":6109.117,"text":"我相信今年的數據一定會比去年更高甚至於說現在很多坊間不曉得各位有沒有聽過一個笑話說公司要招待員工旅遊可是老闆就跟員工宣布說我們原來安排的肯丁國旅取消了因為去日本反而比較便宜"},{"start":6110.538,"end":6137.409,"text":"所以現在變成說在去日本住上個晚上的房間價格比在台灣國旅的房間價格還便宜啦吃得好風景又漂亮買又很好買那所以現在這種狀況說日圓持續貶值造成我們國人他們的這個觀光收益日本觀光收益的增加相對台灣觀光收益的減少還有就是我們台灣的產業啊"},{"start":6139.19,"end":6139.33,"text":"委員會主席"},{"start":6150.219,"end":6172.55,"text":"我手上的資料工具機在台灣跟日本的差異性過去過去日本的工具機的價格大概高過台灣會有大概20到30%那所以台灣的這些工具機產業會有他的生存空間那但是因為現在因為日圓持續貶值所以"},{"start":6174.178,"end":6200.794,"text":"日本的這些台灣的高階機種的訂單都被日商搶光了那中低階的部分呢又被大陸給搶光了那台灣的機械工會也指出說過去這個利基以及這個在市場上可以去依賴的這些空間都不見了那目前價格幾乎跟日本的"},{"start":6202.103,"end":6204.906,"text":"日圓貶值效應會否導致亞洲貨幣競貶．及對台灣經濟影響．及對日本經濟影響．"},{"start":6215.82,"end":6242.666,"text":"總裁,我們要怎麼樣才能夠去協助工具機的這個產業還有我們這個國內旅遊、國旅的產業對啦,我跟委員報告啦對啦,工具機它長久以來它也都是會一直提到就是說匯率的問題但是我們在這個我們的報告裡面我們也一直在強調事實上工具機的那個什麼它的出口的興衰"},{"start":6243.826,"end":6258.112,"text":"主要還是跟全球的那個什麼的境界比較有關係我跟委員報告事實上日本跟台灣很大一部分的工具機的一個出口很大一部分是到中國大陸去"},{"start":6259.264,"end":6281.033,"text":"那中國大陸委員也知道就是說他們目前的一個情況不是很好所以呢日本對中國大陸的一個出口工具機的一個出口減少我們台灣也是減少那剛剛委員在講的就是說也沒有錯啦就是說以往日本的工具機價格是比我們高但是呢"},{"start":6282.693,"end":6309.302,"text":"現在因為是貶值的一個關係但是我們一直在強調匯率並不是主要的因素主要的還是景氣的關係所以我們在這個報告裡面的第12頁裡我們就已經也有談到了也有談到這一點我們也談到這一點你看看我們在12月這邊我們談到就是說2022年2023年這個是日圓貶的最大你看看它NER貶值貶了8%"},{"start":6310.782,"end":6330.557,"text":"平均貶值8%,我們才貶值0.4%但是呢這我們的工具機出口我們就說國際需求影響所以台灣工業機出口平均減少2.7%日本工業機平均減少3.9%你看它的貶值的弧度"},{"start":6331.889,"end":6336.371,"text":"基本上我總覺得我們的工具機除了它對匯率以外"},{"start":6359.46,"end":6359.48,"text":"好 謝謝"},{"start":6391.072,"end":6410.42,"text":"下一位質詢請李彥秀李委員然後現場我們就是在發言兩位發言兩位之後我們就是稍作休息謝謝謝謝教委我可不可以邀請我們的楊總裁請楊總裁"},{"start":6417.927,"end":6441.269,"text":"李委員早是總裁早安喔是歷任幾位總裁包括彭總裁都很關注台灣的房價我想你應該也是很關注台灣的房價總裁我們國內的四大房價指數無論是從政大的永慶我們的信義房價的歷年的走勢圖你看到我的圖表喔對"},{"start":6441.849,"end":6468.066,"text":"還有包括清華的安富還有包括我們內政部的住宅價格這四大房價的指數我們都可以看得出來越來這幾年就是說最近其實房價都是創下歷史的新高那總裁你評估現在是房價的天花板了嗎你看這個房價你會認為它現在已經是天花板了嗎"},{"start":6469.286,"end":6471.591,"text":"基本上 我不敢隨便在這邊做"},{"start":6478.285,"end":6479.666,"text":"在去年的第三季我們的房價指數聯徵率是"},{"start":6501.12,"end":6526.117,"text":"沒關係總裁你的數據我大概清楚就是說我為什麼這麼問第一個我問說現在到底是不是他的天花板你也不敢保證其實因為房價會走揚會有很多不同的外在因素在他絕對不是只有一個因素而已那包括現在總體的經濟股市也很好所以房價是不是也有可能被推升他會不會是原因之一"},{"start":6527.177,"end":6530.841,"text":"但從2020開始我們央行祭出五波的信用管制措施條控房價的方法跟方式看起來"},{"start":6544.876,"end":6559.843,"text":"已經進行了五波但是房價仍然就是一年攀的比一年比一年高包括我們央行的經營處的處長之前也分析我們房價的景氣房市的景氣確實比上半年更熱絡主要的原因有三個一個"},{"start":6560.623,"end":6561.263,"text":"新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞新聞"},{"start":6583.391,"end":6610.679,"text":"往上走的原因嗎?我在想他是說最近啦最近的因素啦那基本上呢應該是我覺得也蠻能夠蠻合理的啦他這種說法但是總裁就是說財政部我們拼命在打房我們希望用調控政策讓房價不要漲但是你們今年處處長說新清安政策把這個房價推高"},{"start":6611.823,"end":6612.984,"text":"新青安市健全房市的一個"},{"start":6637.096,"end":6653.405,"text":"的一個政策他其中的一個政策因為他這個就是說要照顧那個就是說年輕人沒有房的年輕人對對不過我跟委員報告但是你認為這個也是但是呢你如果說假設說"},{"start":6654.506,"end":6668.151,"text":"假設啦我現在也沒有就是說我現在假設他也是其中就是說因為他需求需求高了以後呢因為市場的氛圍呢就整個從本來是要下來的那現在就變成上來的話"},{"start":6669.631,"end":6686.04,"text":"那我們做這樣的敘述呢我們也不能說因為他是政府的政策你就說不能說是因為這個因素我覺得也不能我們我們這個也是在做一個檢討那基本上呢如果說行政院他對我們的"},{"start":6687.02,"end":6714.16,"text":"總裁因為我的時間有限就是說房價會升的會一直往上走其實還有很多不同的因素我也曾經聽過不動產公衛說你不斷地升我的利息還加上現在的五缺缺工缺人什麼都缺他羊毛出在羊家成本就是這麼高所以他必須是這麼高所以其實這也是業界不同的聲音在所以部長總裁我要請問就是說現在打房抑制房價"},{"start":6715.561,"end":6734.093,"text":"仍舊是我們央行的政策之一嘛我跟委員報告我也要在這一個我再來做一個說明基本上委員說我們關心房價當然我們關心房價但是我跟委員報告"},{"start":6735.114,"end":6738.595,"text":"會否導致亞洲貨幣競貶．及對台灣經濟影響．及對台灣經濟影響．及對台灣經濟影響．及對台灣經濟影響"},{"start":6762.303,"end":6768.366,"text":"我跟委員報告,事實上我們一直認為我們認為升息是我們針對的是我們的通膨但是呢,我們如果說對付了通膨以後那這個升息對房價對這個房地產市場它也有impact"},{"start":6783.672,"end":6799.413,"text":"但是呢我就說升息不是我們主要要對付那個什麼房價的而是我們升息要主要是對付這個房地產的對付通膨的但是呢升息呢對於這個房地產呢他也會有影響"},{"start":6801.479,"end":6803.342,"text":"總裁,你上次在3月21日無預警調了半碼,為了因應我們可能通膨升電價後續的通膨,你覺得現在有沒有達到那個效果?"},{"start":6818.542,"end":6827.928,"text":"我跟委員報告就是效果也不是說利率你一調升就馬上會有效果不過我跟委員報告我跟委員報告就是說我們剛剛你如果說看看仔細看看就是說我們的CPI我們的這個17項的民生用品你的最少購買一次的這個商品的物價"},{"start":6852.065,"end":6873.861,"text":"總裁,我聽懂你的說明,但是上次吳育瑾的升息半碼,現在但是我們看這一第一季的經濟指數還有我們現在的那個CBI表現得不錯,但是CBI也通過您的防線,連續三年通過您的防線,就是超過二。當時你會不會想說我如果當時升息一碼會更好?"},{"start":6874.682,"end":6892.057,"text":"我不會 我不會這麼認為 因為我跟委員報告就是說利率的一個作用力啊 他不是說我要馬上下去就馬上就收效的 不是 利率的一個作用力他是在18個月到24個月以後他才慢慢地擠出來的"},{"start":6894.839,"end":6909.985,"text":"昨天總裁我昨天關注到經濟部部長在委員會有提到接下來能源政策重大的改變就是用電政策重大的改變能源政策接下來會增加企業的成本也就是未來就是我們不再做補貼"},{"start":6911.245,"end":6924.635,"text":"包括盡量穩住民生跟小家電的電價那要多調整用電大戶我重點是在用電大戶這件事情這個是整個用電的政策跟能源政策的很大的調整"},{"start":6926.797,"end":6947.538,"text":"總裁,你有沒有聽到,這是一個整個很大的變革,你有沒有參與相關的會議?沒有。總裁,你覺得說,未來如果整個經濟部就是說,未來各部會的補貼,就是你們回到各部會,我們不再用稅基順序去補貼,又念大會要大幅的調整,你個人認為這個對於經濟整個大波動會不會有影響?"},{"start":6951.161,"end":6969.422,"text":"我覺得使用者互惠這是一般的我知道您支持但是用電大戶未來要大幅的增加就是大幅的調漲電價你認為對於我們的整體的企業跟經濟會不會有影響所以我當然你現在委員現在就說"},{"start":6971.003,"end":6986.156,"text":"會不會有影響,那這個是大概是要做study啦齁,要做影響,我也沒辦法,我也沒辦法,我也沒辦法來告訴說,會會會,不會不會不會,那這個是,這個是但是,總裁那個study的趨勢一定是"},{"start":6986.937,"end":7011.913,"text":"有影響只是多跟少而已嗎你同不同意我的說法大跟小然後呢就是說他的一個方式怎麼來方式怎麼進行因為我今天本來是很想好好問你這個問題沒關係我不再用到後面委員的時間我只是非常訝異這麼大的一個能源政策用電的政策行政部會這麼大幅的調整今天經濟部的次長在現場居然沒有我們財政部"},{"start":7015.976,"end":7016.636,"text":"我沒有支持或反對因為這個是行政部會的決定"},{"start":7038.761,"end":7046.189,"text":"但是居然沒有財政部跟央行的角色在裡面發表你們的意見就直接在經濟委員會說出來我覺得這是"},{"start":7048.533,"end":7048.553,"text":"謝謝謝謝委員謝謝"},{"start":7078.377,"end":7084.785,"text":"下一位質詢請王宏威王委員李坤澄委員請準備請楊總裁"},{"start":7100.665,"end":7119.602,"text":"總裁好 其實我想很多委員都有關心到這個房價的問題 因為最近房價確實有提高 非常明顯在幾個都會區都有 其實相對可能台北市的漲幅還少一些"},{"start":7120.302,"end":7139.741,"text":"但是呢現在確實房價的蠢蠢欲動那麼我想請問一下央行最近有找銀行甚至有找房仲業來了解房市嗎我跟委員報告就是說我們從選擇性信任管制之後我們都在"},{"start":7141.156,"end":7162.777,"text":"這一季這一季之間我們都會分別請銀行來啦或專家學者來啦還有來討論 有找房仲業有沒有找房仲業房仲業的話呢我們有請過房仲業的房仲業的這個最近三個月有沒有最近三個月這個三個月我就不曉得"},{"start":7164.399,"end":7164.979,"text":"最近在桃園甚至出現了排隊來買房子"},{"start":7183.999,"end":7187.522,"text":"甚至又出現還搭帳篷戴躺椅來排隊買房子那當然這個就是被房仲介還有賣房子把他炒一波啦某一種程度也許是帶風向但是呢那確實感覺有這個房市熱起來那因為我們下個禮拜我們央行就要召開這個禮監事會"},{"start":7207.396,"end":7225.123,"text":"所以大家就是特別來關心中央銀行會不會針對房市的部分會採取新的房市的信用管制有嗎目前在中央銀行的規劃裡面可不可能會不會排除有新的房市的信用管制"},{"start":7226.159,"end":7242.834,"text":"我跟委員報告就是說一樣的就是說我們從這個選擇任性管制實施之後我們每一季的一個禮監事會都會討論到房地產的一個議題"},{"start":7244.789,"end":7266.329,"text":"所以下禮拜也會?也會那目前有沒有可能有新的相關的防事信用管制呢?這個就是說在當天看看委員他有什麼樣的一個想法大家的意見行人共事就會有一些的決定所以好"},{"start":7266.829,"end":7287.2,"text":"所以不排除啦那另外就大家比較關心那什麼樣的一個新的就是央行的工具也很多啦比如說在之前大家一直談到就說豪宅的定義可是總裁在今年3月的時候曾經講說財政部雖然呢他這個提高了這個門檻"},{"start":7289.761,"end":7317.094,"text":"但是呢,央行跟財政部的這個政策我們的功能是不一樣的所以呢,不一定財政部要做我們就一定要按照財政部的標準所以現在還是如此嘛因為對淘宅的這個定義比如說央行是7千萬可是財政部已經把它下調到6千萬所以我們有沒有可能兩邊你們就在隔壁隔壁啊是不是可以一致有沒有考慮時隔已經差不多三個月了嘛"},{"start":7318.569,"end":7334.475,"text":"我跟委員報告,委員是就是說記憶得非常清楚在3月的時候我們確實有針對這個議題我們做解釋但是我也跟委員報告就是說我們的這個豪宅的金額是"},{"start":7335.715,"end":7360.165,"text":"是你要管制措施裡面的它的一個強弱的一個門檻對所謂的強弱的門檻就是說假設我們要把它強一點的話那當然我們就下來啊對沒錯我們如果說弱一點的話我們就上去一點啊是所以這個門檻呢是我們跟財政部財政部是純粹就"},{"start":7362.026,"end":7362.046,"text":"總裁"},{"start":7381.034,"end":7381.254,"text":"我想第一個委員"},{"start":7404.602,"end":7432.754,"text":"第一個你講到這個議題的時候當然我們會去討論這個第一個第二個呢選擇性信任管制誠如剛剛委員在講的我們有工具啊我們還有其他的工具啊對不對所以也不是說只有針對這個來討論還有其他的工具我們可以討論另外一個工具是大家討論很多的就是我們對於第二戶的貸款陳述有沒有可能把它調降"},{"start":7433.294,"end":7458.966,"text":"這個我想也會討論因為我就說剛剛的委員講我們的工具還有啊所以在下禮拜有可能討論到豪宅的門檻要不要調低還有討論第二戶的貸款成數會不會降低那還有最重要大家市場在看的我們會不會再升息"},{"start":7460.443,"end":7473.315,"text":"我剛剛也已經講了就是說升息當然也是手段之一不過升息的主要的目標是通膨"},{"start":7474.752,"end":7498.93,"text":"我剛才也解釋了就是說他雖然是只有多針對通膨但是呢他的影響也會影響到房地產對沒有錯總裁其實在你們上一次升旗之前我們同樣的在也是在立法院我們財委會那個時候呢他是面臨到馬上4月份要調電價所以那時候你們覺得那個通膨的壓力比較大一點"},{"start":7502.973,"end":7518.464,"text":"最近的數字雖然還是在2%以上但是目前看起來目前看起來沒有在調電價之前感覺這麼緊張您同不同意我們都密切在注意我也感覺到好像是這樣"},{"start":7519.144,"end":7547.495,"text":"你同意我講的話嗎?對不對?所以呢當然很多人就會去猜測因為下禮拜也就會揭曉了所以我剛才講到的升息、調降豪宅門檻還有第二戶的貸款層數降低在下個星期我們會不會看到任何一個因為你們是你們不可能同時都做嘛同時通作這個力道太強了啦我也覺得這個對市場不是很好那可能呢三折一"},{"start":7548.556,"end":7568.153,"text":"三個手段裡面選擇一個當然 我在想是不是選擇或是都沒有那這個我就跟委員報告這個是我們的理事要共同要討論之後大家有一個共識然後才說要怎麼樣"},{"start":7569.518,"end":7593.974,"text":"反正大家看下禮拜不過另外其實我們今天講到是日幣因為日幣貶很多今年台幣貶也很多日幣也貶很多不過我在這邊當然不是中央銀行的職務我是要幫消費者講一下話日幣貶那麼多但是我們日系的商品我們現在沒有看到條價"},{"start":7597.036,"end":7618.492,"text":"總裁有沒有注意到我們日系的商品日系的車子日本料理更貴對不對我想你們去吃日本料理有便宜嗎還說什麼日本空運來台也沒有更便宜日系的化妝品也沒有便宜很多家電也沒有便宜所以這個是不是對消費者來講不是不是很合理"},{"start":7619.506,"end":7647.117,"text":"總裁同不同意?我也覺得同意所以我們其實也應該呼籲我們的進口商他也某一個程度他要反映這個匯率貶值不是說沒有錯我們現在就很多國人就跑到日本去玩大家就這個時候去日本玩最好這個時候去日本採買最好可是我們跟日本進口這麼多的商品可是日系產品聞風味道沒有降價"},{"start":7648.778,"end":7677.115,"text":"總裁要不要一起譴責一下就說相關部會相關部會就是說共同來來努力對其實你看我們央行覺得有些大家要配合一下政策也會請來了解一下剛剛講嘛請銀行來一下請房仲來一下我覺得我們的相關的這個部會也應該就這種大的這種日系產品我覺得都沒有降價這根本是吃定消費者"},{"start":7677.595,"end":7679.197,"text":"李崑成李委員謝謝主席,我們請總裁"},{"start":7709.491,"end":7731.73,"text":"總裁好這個接續剛剛好幾位委員的話題因為現在日幣是貶值當然很多人都希望也有這個能力意願到日本去玩但是相對的日系的產品到台灣來其實價格還是維持它在年初前的高檔我是希望說這個其實"},{"start":7733.451,"end":7747.916,"text":"拜託不要用譴責,有時候道德勸說一下是不是這個日系的產品因為它們已經貶值了嘛那其實這個進來台灣的這個價格是不是也能夠稍微再優惠一點啊"},{"start":7749.516,"end":7754.538,"text":"今天的題目就是說現在日本維持會市的弱勢當然它也吸引觀光客到日本去旅遊"},{"start":7775.587,"end":7791.164,"text":"也讓服務業的輸出繼續成長一方面吸引外資、刺激出口日本近期的經濟也有成長形成一個良性的循環但是匯率的弱勢對台灣出口也有幫助"},{"start":7792.265,"end":7819.086,"text":"亞洲國家經濟都是以製造業跟出口為主考量規模經濟出口需求等等所以各國也傾向維持匯率的弱勢台灣跟其他國家在產業上有競爭關係所以台幣維持弱勢當然也有它的必要性可是維持台幣弱勢的代價就是進口物價上漲的通膨的壓力請教一下總裁以今年來講"},{"start":7820.527,"end":7831.374,"text":"新台幣匯率開高走低全年最高價我看了一下可能是在1月2號的30.866元最低價有可能是落在4月22號的32.651元收盤價如果說點"},{"start":7836.698,"end":7842.981,"text":"我會趁這個機會來跟委員報告就是說基本上應該是沒有所謂的防線沒有楊金龍防線沒有沒有沒有"},{"start":7863.849,"end":7892.642,"text":"因為匯率說實在它是一個這個指標這個價格它是隨供需在決定的那特別是我跟委員報告特別是現在外資剛剛我們才公布那個外資在我們台灣的那個所佔的對外匯存底的比重你看現在說131%你看很顯然的就是說基本上"},{"start":7893.962,"end":7917.614,"text":"外資現在在我們的外匯市場呢他是很扮演非常重要的一個角色所謂的扮演重要角色就是說他的進跟出啊第一個很難去掌握這是第一個第二個呢他進來的時候或是出去的時候他都非常的集中而且非常的大量不僅是進來或是出去"},{"start":7918.334,"end":7946.443,"text":"那這個隨時你就很難去你就很你要manage他不大容易但是呢中央銀行要關注他所以呢對我意思是說央行還是這個匯率還是可以稍微我們還是要注意他然後呢做一個所以我們的報告裡面也有談到就是說我們第一個我們不能讓這個匯率波動得太大因為你的匯率波動得如果太大的話呢我們的廠商他要報價他要怎麼報價"},{"start":7947.563,"end":7948.903,"text":"新台幣的匯率呢就是32到32.5我們也沒辦法做這樣的一個"},{"start":7965.649,"end":7983.879,"text":"所以才說一個Range啦對 這只是說你的波動的幅度讓它能夠穩定這是第一個那第二個呢剛剛委員你也講的沒有錯啦就是說你的匯率說實在的匯率是相對性的啦人家在貶值的時候呢那你硬著就是說要讓新台幣升值"},{"start":7984.839,"end":8003.121,"text":"但是新台幣它的供需也是朝貶的方向走的時候那你有可能去讓它升值嗎?也沒辦法嘛所以就是說大家都在貶的時候呢那你看看其他的情況是怎麼樣如果說我會貶但是呢對我的一籃子其他的貨幣呢"},{"start":8004.122,"end":8006.324,"text":"所以也沒有所謂一個多少價錢這個匯率就是屬於一個防線然後超過那個防線你就稍微要注意"},{"start":8025.417,"end":8053.947,"text":"當然我們也沒有所謂的防線但是基本上第一個要讓它穩定那第二個也就是說那介於多少到多少是比較穩定的勒我剛剛才在講就是說它的波動度當然波動也不能太大啊對對對最主要的就是我才說有一個曲線嘛對對對它的波動度所以所以波動度而且你看看我們的報告裡面我們的報告裡面我們第幾頁我們就有畫出我們的波動度出來"},{"start":8054.867,"end":8077.477,"text":"我們的波動度跟其他亞洲國家來比較的話我們的波動度算是很穩定的它有一定的穩定度我當然知道說對於央行來講維持匯率的穩定是相當的重要這是我們的中央銀行法裡面規定我們就是說要維持匯率的穩定"},{"start":8078.798,"end":8097.616,"text":"我再請教總裁就是說其實弱勢的日幣跟弱勢的台幣其實有利於兩國的外銷產業就像你們的報告所講出來的台日兩國的貿易競爭的關係不大但是互補性大所以弱勢的日幣對台灣的產業是利大於弊政府也可以利用這個機會鼓勵我們產業赴日投資"},{"start":8101.347,"end":8125.032,"text":"美國早期比較擔心說台日兩國的匯率貶值會影響到外銷的貿易競爭力但是近年來對於台幣日幣的貶值他們也沒有什麼反對的意見顯然這個國際的局勢美日台友好聯合抗中的新局勢成為全球的新秩序請教一下總裁的看法"},{"start":8126.586,"end":8139.515,"text":"基本上對於這個後面的sentence就是說國際局勢有關美日台有聯合抗中的信誓已成為全球信誓這個是屬於這個層面這是屬於這個就是政治的一個層面"},{"start":8145.379,"end":8170.475,"text":"但是呢就是說匯率的申辯這是另外一個層面這是另外一個層面那基本上他的匯率報告呢他是比較偏向這個層面來講他不會就是說我們政治我們是政治意願是我賜予的啦那另外的就是說我是提到說就是說過去美國對於這個台灣日本人這個"},{"start":8171.415,"end":8172.315,"text":"不過我跟委員報告這一次"},{"start":8187.749,"end":8208.73,"text":"幾乎所有的貨幣都對美元貶值那為什麼對美元貶值因為美國的經濟在所有的先進經濟體裡面他是一枝獨秀而且他的利率又很高他的經濟強所以這當然大家他也知道"},{"start":8209.13,"end":8229.88,"text":"他也知道就是說所以我們在報告裡面也講事實上大家沒有競貶主要的還是大家在竹貶那竹貶的話呢這個就比較合他的意思比較合美國的意思事實上美國是比較在意的就是說在這個議題裡面講的就是說你競貶你這樣的話會產生就是說競爭力但是我們沒有競貶嗎沒有啊沒有競貶我們的分析認為就是說事實上呢"},{"start":8237.743,"end":8243.529,"text":"最後30秒請教一下總裁6月13日央行要召開第二季的禮監事會議了媒體在猜上次禮監事會議召開之後也給我們一個surprise"},{"start":8255.88,"end":8256.24,"text":"休息5分鐘"},{"start":8733.382,"end":8738.585,"text":"繼續開會下一位質詢請黃珊珊黃委員好的謝謝主席我請總裁請楊總裁"},{"start":8758.72,"end":8786.337,"text":"黃委員早是總裁早我想今天很高興能夠再看到總裁來報告相關的也希望在新政府上任之後我們還是提供穩健而且有建設性的建議喔好謝謝第一個就是央行在113年5月份公布的金融穩定報告裡面說不動產的市場現在回溫而且價格居高民眾購物負擔增加所以"},{"start":8787.177,"end":8810.589,"text":"總裁現在的狀況你覺得現在的房市熱絡是好事還是壞事?如果說是好事如果說它是基本面所支撐出來的那就是是好事如果說是炒作出來的那就不好所以我記得我上次在質詢您的時候就是說政府在"},{"start":8811.449,"end":8838.769,"text":"提出了平均基權條例希望能夠打房但是同時在大選期間又推出了新清安貸款這兩個政策某個程度來說其實是有點自相矛盾那房市不斷的飆高當然股票也飆高表示台灣內部的經濟狀況是不錯的那錢只能拿去買股炒房不然要做什麼另外就是一種投資詐騙一大堆所以我的問題是房市熱絡新清安貸款"},{"start":8839.79,"end":8861.369,"text":"有沒有所謂的帶動這一波房市炒作的原因?這個就是說預期心理一定有啦預期心理是當然是有啦那這個就是說因為大家都覺得再不買就會更貴啊所以趕快去買尤其是"},{"start":8862.35,"end":8866.735,"text":"新西蘭貸款在4月份單個月就6879戶貸款了500多億總共現在已經到53000戶總金額已經4000多億所以接下來看起來這個房市沒有辦法"},{"start":8877.327,"end":8898.18,"text":"冷卻或者是依在照這樣的狀況之下我想問一下總裁剛剛很多委員都認過了我們有沒有新的另外一波的管制措施是 我跟委員報告是啦就是說我們從選擇性信用管制之後啊我們都一直在每次的禮監事會的時候所以會不會再做一次不動產貸款的講解我們都會討論它"},{"start":8900.982,"end":8929.122,"text":"這個議題呢我也相信這一次我們還是會討論是不動產你們以前會對不動產貸款的專案警檢對對對就這個部分我是建議啦因為新青安貸款現在已經變成非常熱絡而且有很多人已經當成人頭然後甚至有轉租的現象我們一定要求財政部去勾結如果有任何轉租的情況就必須要處理第二個民間的大型民營的銀行因為比不過新青安貸款所以現在有非常多"},{"start":8930.347,"end":8930.547,"text":"是是,謝謝"},{"start":8960.604,"end":8984.444,"text":"第二點就是我也看到今天總裁的報告在日本現在我們對日本都非常有興趣因為國人現在非常開心只要去日本玩就非常的便宜跟划算重點是日本長期以來我看到你們的報告是說日本到現在沒有脫離日本化利率低通膨低成長的經濟困境也就是30多年的失落的日本"},{"start":8985.024,"end":9008.772,"text":"那其實就是台灣的前車之鑒那我也看到說我們雖然現在還是經濟成長相對於日本是好很多但是我也看到你們的報告裡面李建勢會議的3月份的是說其實最嚴重的是快速進展的少子化跟高齡化人口結構的變化影響經濟的成長所以失落的日本我們將在"},{"start":9010.333,"end":9012.554,"text":"總裁,您有什麼建議?人口轉變,工作人口還有我們的"},{"start":9028.078,"end":9048.138,"text":"我們的衝擊會比日本還大我看了真是膽戰心驚啊總裁怎麼建議所以就是說少子化這個是也不是說台灣是這樣好像是這個也是世界的趨勢特別是先進國家所以如果你已經看到了2052我們會比日本更衝擊"},{"start":9051.3,"end":9069.609,"text":"所以各個相關的部會包括就是說包括我們舉一個很簡單的例子就是說包括我們的學校是的現在就要開始做準備了吧30年前的現在就要做準備了那你的勞力你的勞力要怎麼來因應那當然了"},{"start":9071.97,"end":9091.328,"text":"將來的經濟成長已經不是匯率跟貨幣的問題而是人口紅利的問題有沒有生產力的問題年輕的工作年齡的人口的實質變化壯世代要工作年輕的世代要有新的教育方式然後因應世界產業的變化要有不同的"},{"start":9092.509,"end":9111.921,"text":"委員我非常同意但是總裁我不是官員所以您是官員您也會參加行政院委員會我認為這件事情在您的報告都已經預計30年後我們將面對現在日本這個考古題日本這個考古題就像剛剛講的我們不能再用所謂的"},{"start":9112.802,"end":9112.822,"text":"總裁"},{"start":9138.028,"end":9144.032,"text":"我們希望政府應該及早因應您在行政院院會我相信也是備受"},{"start":9145.182,"end":9145.342,"text":"謝謝委員指教"},{"start":9169.324,"end":9180.314,"text":"我也希望您給我一個針對這個部分有什麼樣您的建議然後我們也可以拿出來跟行政院來做要求好嗎是是是好可以可以好謝謝總裁是好謝謝現在進行吳立華吳委員"},{"start":9200.253,"end":9201.997,"text":"謝謝主席,有請央行總裁"},{"start":9210.398,"end":9229.665,"text":"總裁好今天我們安排的是日圓貶值對台灣經濟的影響那至少我們看到就是日圓貶值34年來新低也是台日民間交流的好時機我們看到好多國人前往日本旅遊買家電"},{"start":9231.986,"end":9247.299,"text":"我們也看到日本呢在這樣的一個情況之下他也願意選擇天數最短距離最近價格最低的台灣那在這樣的狀況之下呢我們其實也看到就是最近其實台灣還蠻熱鬧的"},{"start":9249.401,"end":9260.976,"text":"黃仁勳來台灣也發展了一套台灣的夜市學我在這邊只是想呼籲一下我也希望黃仁勳可以到我們園鄉來走一走幫我們訪問一下"},{"start":9265.442,"end":9285.719,"text":"去日本買家電確實很便宜因為我們看到像這個Dyson的空氣清淨機你看它的牌價18888可是到日本當地去買可以用7700多買到所以大家都說沒有保固也很值得"},{"start":9287.1,"end":9310.896,"text":"另外我們看到日本也不是沒有反制啦因為他們也很擔心很多人去就是要轉售魔力嘛所以呢他們也有因應的方法他們也有開發這種系統就是可以防止你到處去造訪到處購買家電但是我要講的是說有另外一種的消費型態他是在官網"},{"start":9312.017,"end":9327.459,"text":"去買那他官網買也有半價以上的價格喔可以輕鬆購入喔那再來一種就是在本地也就是在我們台灣去買他們的日電我們看到10年前喔"},{"start":9328.3,"end":9354.516,"text":"其實當他們日圓貶值的時候我們在台灣買日系家電其實是也很划得來可是10年之後像現在如果我們要在台灣去買這些日系的汽車家電其實並不見得比較便宜喔所以想要請教一下總裁因為我們國人其實真的是比較偏好日系的這些家電或品牌那麼"},{"start":9355.436,"end":9384.139,"text":"到底在國內購買到日本購買或者是透過網購平台購入總裁您認為要考慮哪一些不同的因素也就是說你教大家怎麼樣最好啦報告委員說實在的我對shopping對這我也比較外行當然我總覺得那個委員你的分析多比我"},{"start":9385.08,"end":9388.302,"text":"總裁今天我們邀請的是央行跟我們經濟部那其實在這個10年當中我們會看到"},{"start":9410.939,"end":9411.759,"text":"我也是希望說藉著今天"},{"start":9440.971,"end":9452.477,"text":"我們委員會他安排了這樣的一個專報也希望能夠對我們的一般平民百姓能夠給他們一些指引方向所以還是麻煩總裁啦好不好那我看到就是第22屆大家引頸期盼的臺北國際數位影音家電展"},{"start":9461.641,"end":9477.277,"text":"也即將來臨那這個當中呢政府也標榜說買什麼可以省什麼最高可以省五千塊那今天我們在經濟部的一個專報裡面我們有看到就是為了要推動這個節能的規模"},{"start":9480.119,"end":9494.167,"text":"經濟部有加強節能服務業的發展去規劃信保制度那單一的這種節能服務業單一的企業他最高有3億元的信保額度"},{"start":9495.087,"end":9518.461,"text":"這是為了要引導金融業的資金要來投入我們的節能工作而且呢這個經濟部也向行政院爭取到117年擴大這個太舊換新補助的措施那我想這個部分都很好所以我就是接下來想要請教總裁您認為日圓接下來會不會繼續貶值"},{"start":9523.531,"end":9548.905,"text":"如果說日圓它長期的趨勢是怎麼樣以目前來看的話是很難去下定論但是我怎麼就目前的情況來跟委員報告就是說基本上市場都大體上都知道"},{"start":9550.438,"end":9569.074,"text":"一百五十七塊一美元對一百五十七塊甚至到一百六十塊這個都不是日本政府他所願意看到的所以你會發現到就是說到一百五十七塊的時候呢日本的央行就會在市場干預所以你看看最近他也變化了"},{"start":9569.814,"end":9570.955,"text":"他現在大概是在155塊左右"},{"start":9591.125,"end":9607.053,"text":"所以是不是他會一直上去市場大概知道就是說日本政府的態度是那為什麼這樣問當然我們就是關心因為日圓貶值的時候大家都說可以提高新台幣對日圓的購買力"},{"start":9609.594,"end":9629.981,"text":"所以這個看起來是有利台灣企業對日本直接的投資或購買他們的技術所以我在這邊是為國內企業請命以冷氣來講國內的品牌東元、森堡、核聯、華林、萬世益這些那我們是不曉得說"},{"start":9631.401,"end":9648.639,"text":"剛才有提到經濟部有提供這個節能產業的一個信貸保證那麼是不是能夠去掌握這個趨勢加速台灣本土產業的一個升級我想這個部分是我們非常希望能夠看到的"},{"start":9649.399,"end":9649.499,"text":"只要20秒"},{"start":9673.983,"end":9694.498,"text":"我想謝謝委員剛剛所提到的部裡面在推這個節能我們跟國內的家電這邊來做合作那我們要提升國內家電的一個這個這個附加價值業或競爭力我想會從幾個面向一個部分當然從研發新產品部分我們給予這個補助另外一個部分就是設計用設計的部分來創造我們產品的價值我想這個是在產品在市場上競爭我們會努力來協助業者因為你們原本是為了節能"},{"start":9702.904,"end":9720.379,"text":"但是我們又碰到這一波就是日圓貶值那在這個部分我們是希望說經濟部可以把你們原來規劃的這個太舊換新節能產業是不是可以跟這一波趨勢我們可以順應扶搖直上有這個機會可能嗎"},{"start":9722.581,"end":9722.981,"text":"現在請王世堅 王委員"},{"start":9760.22,"end":9764.382,"text":"謝謝主席我請總裁楊總裁王仁早總裁辛苦了謝謝你鼓勵從去年8月財政部同意了新清安房貸以後那這將近七八個月來我們台灣"},{"start":9790.235,"end":9808.306,"text":"從北到南房價的飆漲已經飆漲到離譜的地步了我相信總裁你看在眼裡應該非常清楚嘛那房價繼續飆漲光是台北市啊台北市一項統計"},{"start":9811.61,"end":9837.82,"text":"五月份的統計我們台北市的房價平均高達九十七萬五千五啦九十七萬五千五天啊這是天文數字就對過去說那退休金大家奉公所法的一輩子領個退休金四五百萬大概照現在的房價在台北市等於買個四五平買一間廁所就對了"},{"start":9838.888,"end":9852.159,"text":"你一輩子的辛勞到最後那你剩的那些退休金在台北市買一間廁所天啊這是荒唐離譜到極點那當然這個牽涉到這個我們台幣"},{"start":9858.784,"end":9878.985,"text":"是否貶值長期以來我們央行控制住我們台幣這個匯率的部分那麼以及利息的部分所以這個我是建議總裁在這一次"},{"start":9880.714,"end":9900.274,"text":"第二次的這個貴行的禮監事會議我想是不是你們應該慎重去考慮應該適度的調升利息啦你覺得呢過去這幾你看這一兩年來我們調升利息有都一點點一點點一碼一碼"},{"start":9902.622,"end":9902.642,"text":"總裁"},{"start":9930.1,"end":9955.612,"text":"你看一下這個房貸與利率關係圖房貸利率與房價的關係圖這上面我做了這個圖很清楚的就是說房價跟利率事實上事實上利率越低房價越高他們曾反比這非常清楚的這一個統計是統計了"},{"start":9960.085,"end":9971.03,"text":"2000年到2018 2018年19年的期間內那麼這一個統計很清楚看得到的2000年當時將近7%的房貸利率"},{"start":9978.376,"end":10005.388,"text":"一路下來2000年那時候這個房價的漲幅跟現在利率來到這麼低來到1.5的時候房價的漲幅是高達295%這是非常清楚的所以是不是在這一次你們旅間式會議是不是應該討論一下針對升息你的看法呢"},{"start":10006.484,"end":10028.149,"text":"我跟委員報告就是說因為你是用很簡單的報告跟委員報告就是說基本上央行的一個利率他是針對是通膨沒有錯那你就說央行那個嚴重"},{"start":10028.649,"end":10030.87,"text":"我們的通膨,我們的通膨率大概是多少?平均不到1%"},{"start":10056.997,"end":10081.855,"text":"這三年突破警戒就是事實啊所以你就說長期事實上是沒有啊就說從2008年你在跟我定義什麼叫做長期是不是我在跟你講現在這三年你在跟我講定義是不是什麼叫長期你的意思你說我的用詞寫長期那你不爽是這樣嗎"},{"start":10084.437,"end":10088.218,"text":"我科技在跟你談事情!你在跟我講智慾上!雖然不叫做長期!什麼叫做長期?民眾的生活一年365天三年1095天那不是長期嗎?抱歉啦抱歉啦我讓委員這樣講話"},{"start":10112.705,"end":10137.438,"text":"大家冷靜的討論事情你怎麼來我怎麼去我這麼客氣的問你因為你是這一部分的專家我認為房價跟利率跟匯率能夠控制其實全賴央行的啦是是是 我很好 我抱歉啦 我很抱歉"},{"start":10138.298,"end":10143.942,"text":"昨年8月財政部新青安貸款通過的時候你們也沒有阻止阿他們也沒聽你們的話阿不是嗎新青安貸款以後我先講幾個數字給你聽新青安貸款去年阿"},{"start":10165.512,"end":10169.07,"text":"去年4月我們講同期去年4月"},{"start":10170.461,"end":10194.699,"text":"我們前五大行庫借房貸大概不到五百億今年的四月同期喔我們五大行庫借房貸將近一千億兩倍之多欸這是很嚴重的事情欸不是嗎那在這個事情上面你央行眼睜睜看著財政部"},{"start":10195.84,"end":10208.465,"text":"只是說為了大家買房更容易結果那麼一放鬆搞成這樣我現在是問你說如何收拾殘局我跟委員報告第一個就是說我們在6月13號我們禮監事會我們會討論這個議題所以抱歉那個委員讓你這樣的話不高興我是真的是抱歉"},{"start":10221.269,"end":10226.239,"text":"但是我跟委員報告我們會在下一次的禮監事會我們會討論委員所關心的議題"},{"start":10230.884,"end":10257.695,"text":"你們認為說經濟成長亮眼臺北本質幅度有限升息打房不利出口這些都有你們的看法但是我希望說你們再來再來再討論委員會啦是不是方向改變限制房貸層數是不是說不要超過總層數不要超過8乘5那應該要比如說升息來打房這是應該做的嘛是是是"},{"start":10258.815,"end":10260.977,"text":"對新青安貸款的這8、9個月來應該做一些複審的動作比方說有的人假借新青安"},{"start":10273.888,"end":10275.45,"text":"沒關係啦 我那個生氣3秒鐘就夠了啦 那個沒關係"},{"start":10295.452,"end":10295.572,"text":"時間有限了"},{"start":10321.67,"end":10338.937,"text":"我最後我會把我沒有放的這個表格我們有前十大嚴重性的貸款的這個負債比例齁這個前十大這個名字我會交給你啦包括他金額之間你看一下在已經嚴重到這個程度的時候從士林開發新潤這樣一路亞新建設這一些這個負債比都過高那是因為什麼"},{"start":10349.981,"end":10372.617,"text":"只因為利率低所以他們就大量的跟銀行拿錢出來那麼去大量的去囤房去買土地那這反而會不利於我們社會上無可足我們青年朋友們他們要買房未來他們碰到該他們要買的時候房價都會居高不下"},{"start":10373.697,"end":10389.493,"text":"委員謝謝你啦,你就提供我們這個疫苗的數據啦,那我們來瞭解啦,我們來深入瞭解,謝謝委員照現在齁,這個比例來講銀行等於沒有風險控管可言嘛,事實上對銀行"},{"start":10391.295,"end":10392.575,"text":"謝謝王世堅委員請總裁會座接下來我們請趙偉羅明財委員"},{"start":10418.613,"end":10440.36,"text":"主席各位出列席官員大家好主席可不可以請楊總裁好請楊總裁楊總裁你好老委你好你現在心情還好嗎都好啊都好看你這幾年來表現就好像台幣對美元匯率的一樣很穩定"},{"start":10442.084,"end":10452.631,"text":"我們的會議是很穩定的,沒有錯啦,我們的會議是穩定的大概小說中的治理名言就是他搶由他搶"},{"start":10454.082,"end":10473.325,"text":"清風佛山岡他恨任他恨明月照大江以前彭淮南是柳樹理論金龍金龍就有一個新的平衡理論就是不會受環境的影響"},{"start":10477.589,"end":10491.961,"text":"所以我們看到新台幣對美元的匯率大概都看起來都蠻持平的就在你的區間在總裁的防線左右兩邊大概貶最低意思大概到時候多少"},{"start":10494.012,"end":10499.72,"text":"我們到最低好像是就32.67幾吧那搶的時候呢我們搶的時候也到27.66幾27大概是澎海南防線"},{"start":10509.958,"end":10529.713,"text":"這個大概就二三十年了這個故事不斷在裡面就重複的演出了不過我跟委員報告是確實匯率它本身它就是有一個有好有壞不過基本上我還是很讚佩啦謝謝啦謝謝委員真的委員的誇獎我們真的就很受用因為謝謝央行每年都"},{"start":10538.34,"end":10538.741,"text":"我們去年繳1850億左右"},{"start":10549.672,"end":10572.7,"text":"今年我們的預算因為美國的利率提高所以我們就繳了2000億其實應該不止因為從央行的外匯存體你的比重來看的話大概外匯存體的比重美元的部位現在有沒有增加"},{"start":10573.393,"end":10597.089,"text":"我們美元的部位呢 當然啦就是說美元的部位我們都也是時常在檢討第二個美元的部位跟其他幣別的部位呢 也都說上上下下啦去年比起來的話大概是差不多啦大概差不多也不會說變化很大日圓的部分在五年前你有沒有減持啊"},{"start":10597.762,"end":10599.904,"text":"人民幣的部分手上現在大概比重有多少?"},{"start":10619.172,"end":10619.232,"text":"日圓喔?"},{"start":10645.094,"end":10651.029,"text":"考不考慮在現在歷史的低點你到大概160的時候你就大量買進啊"},{"start":10653.768,"end":10659.709,"text":"我跟委員報告就是說我們外匯存底的一個管理的準則當然我們也會就是說我們必須要在適當的時間做調整第二個呢 你的調整就是說不能太頻繁"},{"start":10682.873,"end":10700.134,"text":"對所以日圓的部分你的調整如果說太頻繁的時候呢人家市場會覺得就是說中央銀行在市場所以現在跟5年前比日圓的比重我們外匯準體的比重下降大概幾%"},{"start":10701.115,"end":10701.135,"text":"我問問"},{"start":10725.372,"end":10740.162,"text":"委員的這個就是說你的管理的準則基本上呢你是蠻有那個限制的如果是我 我是有見解啦謝謝總裁的談案那如果是我的話我現在就要多換一點議員"},{"start":10742.263,"end":10769.805,"text":"我這樣的做法是對嗎?我想就個人來講的話你一直稱讚我啊就個人的理財方式是可以分批買進其實也不錯因為第一個日本不會倒嘛總裁日本會不會倒?應該是不會啦所以日本不會倒第二個就是歷史的新低反正就是加減賣加減換因為以前最高的時候"},{"start":10770.586,"end":10791.197,"text":"日圓對美的大概80塊啊?對,沒有錯所以你現在相對的160塊很便宜啊那還有一個好處就是國人都很喜歡去日本去遊玩你就是部分當作你個人的像央行一樣比照的一個小水庫"},{"start":10792.037,"end":10792.297,"text":"請問一下總裁"},{"start":10820.438,"end":10849.984,"text":"台灣大家都很想說會不會是像日本一樣失落的30年借鏡那事實上台灣不一樣我們台灣有護國神山我們台灣因為這樣護國神山挺住他的產業鏈請問這個次長整個股市如果是一個櫥窗電子占我們經濟發展的比重因為他非常的亮麗大概比重有多少"},{"start":10851.437,"end":10872.75,"text":"我想目前的比重應該有超過五成以上五成了齁所以台灣的發展事實上跟日本是不一樣我們是靠50%電子方面撐在那個地方現在請問一下次長會不會再多另外一隻腳另外一個護國神山AI也沒有可能產生"},{"start":10874.772,"end":10891.179,"text":"我想這個部分是有很大的一個這個發展的潛力而且我們的這個供應鏈的能力也可以在這個面向來發揮更好的價值對我看到NVIDIA他AI未來的發展的一些供應廠商但60% 65%都是台灣的生產鏈是"},{"start":10896.241,"end":10917.173,"text":"因為我有問他,我問他說因為這蠻核心的他們在選擇就是廠商的vendor code裡面最重要他以台灣為主當然還有日本少許那請問一下次長台灣跟日本比較的話台灣的優勢在哪裡第一個我們的供應鏈的一個這個聚落的能量比較健全"},{"start":10919.944,"end":10948.096,"text":"所以黃仁勳先生他說要來台灣設廠你的態度歡不歡迎當然我們是非常非常歡迎這樣的一個國際的大廠到台灣來然後跟我們的供應鏈結合創造更高的價值是謝謝這個真的是台灣人的驕傲以後不是只有張宗謀我們希望多出幾個張宗謀黃仁勳各方面多一點嘛"},{"start":10949.147,"end":10949.888,"text":"委員說的沒有錯啊"},{"start":10956.229,"end":10984.426,"text":"那你要按那個聲音對委員說的沒有錯說的沒錯那我要提醒總裁還有一個現在金管會已經在推動虛擬資產的專法要開始管理了我們看到香港新加坡很多地方現在的資金都撤退因為他們管理區域嚴格那希望總裁這一塊"},{"start":10985.444,"end":11004.587,"text":"也許是另外一個理財的另外一個一隻腳會出現因為我們金融相對GDP產值就不到6%在海外的部分新加坡香港都超過十幾%所以拜託在金融管制方面"},{"start":11007.023,"end":11022.743,"text":"請總裁要準備好我們希望台灣未來的發展是可以取代香港取代新加坡讓台灣成為世界上大家驕傲的亞洲營運理財中心好不好"},{"start":11026.494,"end":11051.886,"text":"謝謝委員的指教 謝謝可以嗎謝謝考不考慮以後買比特幣我6千塊跟你講過現在已經7萬了聽說還會漲到10萬謝謝有沒有可能把虛擬資產納入外匯全體的項目到目前為止我們會注意它但是目前都還沒有這樣的一個考慮你的數字貨幣什麼時候提出"},{"start":11053.33,"end":11077.002,"text":"我們還是持續在進行已經開始在做了嗎?我們都有階段性,我們都安排得很好這個階段是什麼時候會亮相?對外公布?我們會報告我們的進度我們會報告我們的進度謝謝非常感謝羅明財交委也請楊總裁林次長回座,謝謝"},{"start":11090.968,"end":11102.939,"text":"這位質詢請林楚英林委員謝謝主席主席有請楊總裁楊總裁"},{"start":11113.911,"end":11135.649,"text":"總裁好,總裁不知道您上週有沒有注意到就是美國眾議院的訪問團來到立法院拜會尤其是到國防交委員會那麼其中有一位共和黨籍的眾議員叫金映玉她其實曾經在美國的眾議院當中她是台灣連線的成員她有提出不歧視台灣法案"},{"start":11136.169,"end":11157.286,"text":"那這個不歧視台灣法案在今年的1月呢在眾議院已經無異議的通過那這裡頭最重要其實就是支持台灣參與國際貨幣基金那我們都知道這個IMF這個議題喔其實在過去財政委員會的時候我就不止一次的質詢過您我跟國國委員、審法會委員、中加兵委我們也一起曾經聯合提案過希望您能夠做這樣的一個評估"},{"start":11158.967,"end":11178.832,"text":"目前以全球國際的幾局勢來講的話不知道您怎麼來評估就是在美國的力挺之下那麼台灣加入所謂的金融聯合國就是IMF的可行性到底現在的狀況如何因為其實我的時間有限我想一次的就提出來就是您過去曾經講過說啊這個"},{"start":11180.592,"end":11204.64,"text":"加入有幾個條件那麼你也曾經講過說因為我們不是這個聯合國的會員但是後來你也說了其實不是一定要聯合國的會員才有機會加入因為像科索沃就不是聯合國的會員那麼現在最重要就是如果當美國這個參眾兩院都通過美國政府真的支持我們的時候那麼我想總裁一定也知道嘛就是"},{"start":11205.42,"end":11218.905,"text":"委員會的進入方式並不是像我們所知道的像聯合國是一國一票他基本上有一個SDR就是說用權重比最後如果能夠達到一定"},{"start":11220.083,"end":11229.29,"text":"的數目的時候過50%我們就有機會能夠加入那我們知道在權重比的部分美國就是最糟的占全體表決權的16.5%再來當然就是日本的6.14當然中國在裡頭的這個權重比有6那麼"},{"start":11236.355,"end":11259.471,"text":"但是我們還有德國法國跟英國所以以這樣的情況來看總裁你怎麼來看就是對於台灣來講現在是不是一個可以再更積極努力的時刻因為呢現在本席在國防外交委員會我也就加入MF是不是可以列為外交部的工作計劃這個部分呢林佳龍部長也給了我非常正面的回應就是說"},{"start":11261.012,"end":11279.919,"text":"這個部分外交部可以積極的來跟央行這裡跟其他包括財政部等等相關的單位一起來爭取因為畢竟現在台灣已經成為世界的台灣我想黃仁勳最近所掀起的旋風包括他所展現的不只是AI的實力還有我們全球的經濟實力"},{"start":11283.18,"end":11303.64,"text":"那麼當然加入INF的好處我想總裁一定是比我或國人都更加的清楚除了我們的金融人才有機會進入國際組織之外更重要的是可以強化台灣的金融韌性更重要的是過去我們曾經在COVID期間我們講的是健康的外交"},{"start":11305.242,"end":11321.574,"text":"那麼現在台灣是不是能夠展現金融外交的一面總裁對於過去我的詢答到最近整個國際社會的狀況您的看法會不會變得更為積極一些謝謝委員的指教"},{"start":11323.255,"end":11350.538,"text":"當然就是說委員也跟那個外交部提出這樣的一個質詢那剛剛你也講就是說外交部也會請就是說財政部啦中央銀行啦這相關的部會來共同來看看怎麼來進行這個呢中央銀行在這一方面如果說政府的態度是怎麼樣那中央銀行當然是一不容辭就是說一定會配合這是第一點"},{"start":11351.318,"end":11357.72,"text":"第二點剛剛那個委員提到了就是說美國現在是美國的態度美國的態度是不是積極的來支持台灣來加入這樣子剛剛你也提到了就是說是講到董事會的問題美國的美國還有這些的那個美國日本英國這些他的董事會"},{"start":11381.188,"end":11401.364,"text":"他要兩個關口事實上委員上一次質詢我們的時候我們就是要密切去注意他所以他整個程序說實在我們都知道不只是說是董事會他另外一個除了董事會之外他還有一個理事會而且那個理事會要190個理事會的國家"},{"start":11408.186,"end":11425.22,"text":"要三分之二投票所以我的意思不是說說那就是很困難不是我的意思就是說我們要了解他的程序是什麼對不對那我們如果說政府是在積極在中央銀行財政部和相關的部位呢一定會配合的"},{"start":11427.803,"end":11440.381,"text":"總裁我給你一個我所找到的數據跟資料啦那我不知道說是我這邊找的資料有誤或是總裁您剛剛的答覆喔不是那麼的精確就是我知道有董事會有理事會但是理事會的投票並不是"},{"start":11441.963,"end":11442.964,"text":"美國的態度非常的重要但是我們不用爭取到所有他不是"},{"start":11463.161,"end":11463.822,"text":"我相信總裁在這裡給予的建議"},{"start":11481.434,"end":11482.355,"text":"稍為諮詢請廖先祥廖委員"},{"start":11522.577,"end":11523.239,"text":"謝謝趙偉,麻煩幫我要請我們楊總裁請楊總裁"},{"start":11531.401,"end":11557.676,"text":"總裁好,去年2023年香港富士比爾50周年慶拍賣了一幅畫Picasso的畫作為女孩拍賣了將近1億的港幣我想這件事情跟總裁個人或者是跟我個人我們就不去看我們的工作的職權當高價的藝術品拍賣跟我們有沒有什麼關係"},{"start":11559.482,"end":11560.242,"text":"總裁另外一個問題喔"},{"start":11586.653,"end":11613.734,"text":"那有錢人去買豪宅跟我們有什麼關係那這個就是說會涉及到一個社會政策的一個問題對總裁我跟你報告絕對有關係我的理論跟總裁報告一下絕對有關係因為我們先說了豪宅的信用的條件導致很多人可能他原本也要去買一個可能超過一定單價的房屋對不對"},{"start":11615.295,"end":11632.448,"text":"因為我們這個門檻設立了之後他不想當冤大頭他不想去買了但他還是有買房屋的需求嘛對不對他就往下來找那他造成了原本去買高單價跟一般民眾不從市場的一個購屋需求"},{"start":11633.148,"end":11663.148,"text":"⋯⋯"},{"start":11663.268,"end":11681.145,"text":"我覺得有沒有幾分道理我是第一次聽到有這樣的一個說法不過呢我也總覺得委員講這個好像雖然是第一次但是好像也有道理不過呢"},{"start":11682.947,"end":11708.148,"text":"確實我誠實跟委員報告我們沒有這樣的一個資訊所以呢也許我們來掌握看看可能就是說是真的就是說豪宅的這個部分因為就我們了解了就是說我們都認為就是說對於豪宅為什麼我們對豪宅要對他那信用管制因為豪宅基本上呢他比較risky"},{"start":11709.517,"end":11711.259,"text":"但是問題是在於就是說我們的豪宅基本上大部分都是那些有錢人"},{"start":11725.354,"end":11727.796,"text":"總裁最近在我們豪宅這幾年我們俗稱的豪宅這幾年高價的房屋確實在交易面"},{"start":11751.77,"end":11765.545,"text":"有很大的急縮嗎?這應該是沒錯嗎?這應該是客觀的一個事實。那原本去交易那些豪宅的人都跑去哪裡了?他是完全不買房子嗎?或許有部分的人他就不買了。對,那或許有些人是不是往下來尋求他認為合理的價格。"},{"start":11773.414,"end":11779.958,"text":"總裁金龍 今天會問總裁最主要是昨天的新聞嘛 總裁應該非常清楚 就是可能6月可能要針對這個高單價房屋的門檻再來調降 尤其是這幾年房屋單價不斷的提高 那房屋"},{"start":11795.848,"end":11823.542,"text":"越來越小那越來越容易達到了這個所謂豪宅的門檻那就導致這個大家所有的建商都把所有的坪數再往下降單價上升了他只能來降坪數嘛那現在市場上面所供應的房屋他到底有沒有符合我們所謂所基本的人權我們一個基本的人權假設一家四口我需要多大的一個室內空間那假設我在台北市公設30幾趴的情況下"},{"start":11825.283,"end":11844.12,"text":"我只是要尋求一個基本居住的一個合理的有人權的居住空間結果就達到豪宅的門檻了那所以說當我們這個金額降到太低的時候其實就我的看來其實也是剝奪了我們一般的民眾去尋求合理有尊嚴的居住空間的一個門檻"},{"start":11846.323,"end":11849.99,"text":"事實上你講的這個道理我是第一次聽到但是我總覺得"},{"start":11857.15,"end":11857.991,"text":"我希望說在訂定的時候有時候不要說"},{"start":11883.61,"end":11908.195,"text":"打豪宅聽起來都很爽啊我聽了也很爽啊多課點睡反正又課不到我對不對但是我們必須要去思考一下他所後續帶來的聯誼會不會影響到我們的普羅大眾所以我剛剛提到的兩點第一個就是購買豪宅的客群到底會不會因為他的移動來波及一般的民眾對一般的民眾第二個是我們的人均所應該賦予的有尊嚴的居住的空間"},{"start":11909.355,"end":11919.638,"text":"到底會不會因為他降了就變成說每個人都要去住豪宅這也是我們需要去思考的另外一個問題這兩點問題再麻煩我們的總裁再思考一下提供一些淺見謝謝謝謝就是請謝伊鳳謝委員"},{"start":11943.029,"end":11946.871,"text":"謝謝主席我想要請楊總裁楊總裁總裁早安今天討論的是日圓貶值那其實不只日圓還有韓圓在這樣子競貶的情況下對於台灣的出口那當然很多的就是大家會認為在相似程度高的情況下那對於台灣的出口是不是就是"},{"start":11973.061,"end":11975.942,"text":"基本上就是說我們在我們的報告裡面提到就是說"},{"start":11991.639,"end":12015.713,"text":"我們台灣的一個出口呢主要的還是受到國際景氣因素的影響在匯率的這個部分呢比較他雖然可能他也是原因但是他的原因不比這個國際經濟的一個景氣來的重要那所以呢你剛剛就講到就是說"},{"start":12017.08,"end":12033.836,"text":"日本的出口還有南韓的出口因為南韓他也是貶值日本也是貶值但是我跟委員報告那你也提到就是說臺幣貶值的幅度沒有比他高但是我跟委員報告事實上我們的出口都比他們好"},{"start":12035.208,"end":12057.533,"text":"所以那如果我們還貶值大一點的時候那貶值大一點那第一個就是說貶值大一點好不好我們現在就是說貶值我們中央銀行的職責在我們中央銀行法裡面就講到我們中央銀行的一個職責維持匯率的相對穩定"},{"start":12058.453,"end":12063.176,"text":"我知道那我們很難就是說我們來讓它促貶然後來提高競爭力好像這個也不是我們的職責我們讓我們的新台幣升值然後來能夠提升我們的讓我們的產業能夠產業升級這個也不是我們的職責"},{"start":12081.406,"end":12094.477,"text":"事實上這兩個是不是能夠達到這樣的一個結果呢?說實在的我們都還是懷疑所以就中央銀行來講的話我們遵守我們中央銀行法讓新台幣的匯率能夠穩定"},{"start":12097.082,"end":12118.422,"text":"我想要看一下,你能不能放下一張投影片就是我們看一下我們的CPI喔就是CPI其實從過去以來喔我們看到這10年以來CPI的那個我們這10年以來其實CPI每年的年增率都是維持在1左右的這樣子的情況喔"},{"start":12120.503,"end":12145.908,"text":"過去以來1.5或者是1是我們的常態但是從從我們的2022年2023年其實我們發現有可能是疫情的關係有可能是原物料上漲的原因好像都維持了一個2點多以上的這樣子的幅度那未來會不會2點多是"},{"start":12150.01,"end":12164.144,"text":"所以委員講的這個也是重點所以我們中央銀行我們也是一直在關心我們的通膨是不是結果上會有一些的改變這個就是委員現在講的一個重點"},{"start":12165.265,"end":12180.105,"text":"事實上我跟委員報告我們上一次會調升利息主要的也是我們也是認為就是說我們連續4年都差不多在2%那這個跟我們以前的那個結果稍微有一點不大一樣"},{"start":12180.766,"end":12198.654,"text":"我覺得剛剛委員就是說我們以前大概平均這個剛剛我也是在講跟那個王委員在講就是說事實上我們從2008年以後到2019年之前我們的通膨都平均不到1%那這個2%第一個2%大概當然就是說相較之下我們跟以前來比較的話我們的民眾會比較不習慣"},{"start":12207.458,"end":12229.16,"text":"但是呢,它畢竟它是一個就是說原物料的上漲嘛主要的是這樣子嘛COVID-19的因素嘛,二無戰爭嘛那這些的因素呢導致但是呢,結果委員在講結果是不是作為改變這是我們中央銀行現在在密切注意的但是,其實從民間的角度來看"},{"start":12229.841,"end":12240.065,"text":"他們認為他們受到這些通膨的影響更大。所以,是不是我們的CPI有失真的情況?事實上呢,我們的CPI是368項的"},{"start":12249.128,"end":12270.857,"text":"加權平均的總和但是呢我們民眾比較會關注的就是說第一個17項的民生用品對不對還有就是說每個月至少購買一次的商品但是呢很不幸的就是說在這一段期間呢因為這個都是跟原物料跟外食跟什麼房租這些有關係這個呢"},{"start":12272.978,"end":12299.954,"text":"就是說它的一個平均的高度都比你的CPI來得高所以呢這個就會產生委員現在所講的說民眾所感受的跟你的CPI不一樣不過呢我也必須要承認就是說事實上呢在每個月每個月就是說買至少購買一次的這個CPI的那個物價呢事實上呢它是比CPI都高這個第一點"},{"start":12300.794,"end":12320.28,"text":"那你的那個17項的那個也是一樣的不過我跟委員報告基本上從去年開始我們的這些至少購買一次的還有17項的這些的物價都是慢慢慢慢的在下降"},{"start":12321.36,"end":12342.999,"text":"不只是說這兩項事實上CPI也是慢慢的在下降所以呢也就是說我們中央銀行的一個利率政策呢主要我們是看的是CPI那我們也不能說是房租針對房租說上漲我們的貨幣政策都要做某些的調整不是中央銀行的貨幣政策是看整個的"},{"start":12344.18,"end":12363.078,"text":"但是呢人民的感受呢是這些17項啊還有我那個什麼還有就是說那個至少購買一個不過我還是要強調的這些的物價呢是都是慢慢在下來都是慢慢在下來還有一個問題我最後還請教一個問題就是我們GDP第一季那個"},{"start":12363.918,"end":12386.937,"text":"我們第一季的數字是非常亮眼的那是因為我們去年同期的基期非常低嘛對這樣的情況下但是為什麼民眾對於我們GDP的這樣子大幅度的上升有可能我們第一季是6.56嘛那全年度可能又調升了嘛可能快要接近4左右了對不對"},{"start":12388.118,"end":12414.299,"text":"為什麼民眾沒有感受呢?我跟委員報告事實上我們的GDP是我們總體的經濟的表現那我們的個人特別是弱勢者或是說比較那個就是說因為他的薪資因為他的薪資成長的幅度不過高"},{"start":12415.2,"end":12415.22,"text":"好 謝謝"},{"start":12443.757,"end":12450.902,"text":"邀請羅廷偉羅委員不在請何欣淳委員不在請林俊憲林委員不在請鍾嘉斌鍾委員不在請蘇清泉蘇委員不在請麥玉珍"},{"start":12473.957,"end":12476.158,"text":"因為時間關係,我們是發言完畢才結束。"},{"start":12502.861,"end":12504.222,"text":"你要請總裁,謝謝。請楊總裁。總裁好。楊總裁在我們財經界一言九鼎,你的預測大家都非常引以為歸念。但是3月的時候,當時你的對物價的預測跟台電跟經濟部不一樣。"},{"start":12524.794,"end":12531.995,"text":"3月的時候當時因為台電預計4月漲電價所以總裁預測說會造成通膨當時是講說會從1.89%到2.16%所以我們當時央行也做了準備我們當時也做了升息的準備國際上很多國家都降息但我們升息了那現在實際上電價已經漲了"},{"start":12552.239,"end":12577.738,"text":"已經漲了那我想問一下總裁啦因為當時經濟部跟你唱反調經濟部說總裁你誤會了實際上漲電價不會造成通膨啦然後很多梗圖還甚至說那個什麼烘焙店也不會有什麼影響那現在電價也實施了當然可能還沒有收到帳單啦可是問題是很多電價已經先前反應了嘛因為他們預期電價會漲所以他們很多產品都已經漲了對"},{"start":12578.939,"end":12590.508,"text":"所以不知道說央行有沒有最新的通膨的預測有沒有還是跟3月一樣嗎我跟委員報告事實上因為這個統計數據的調查是主計總署主計總署你看看他的4月份的是下來是1.95"},{"start":12604.558,"end":12620.723,"text":"所以就是說它的通膨率是有效的但是我要跟委員報告的就是說我們當時升息的主要的理由不是說電價調漲馬上就會通膨就會上來 不是我們是說"},{"start":12622.711,"end":12648.318,"text":"這個因為社會上都一直在討論那討論的時候呢就是會導致通膨的預期所以呢中央銀行的升息的理由呢是說我們要抑制這個通膨預期的這個現象那還有就是說我們說我們升息呢事實上呢也不是只有針對一年我跟委員報告我們在我們的新聞稿裡面我們在強調我們為什麼會升息因為"},{"start":12649.398,"end":12672.891,"text":"我們的通膨從202121年開始連續4年幾乎都超過2%總裁因為你講的很多新聞都寫了我現在主要是要問因為我們主要是民眾會擔心未來發展的狀況是是是沒有錯因為現在電價也逐漸都漲了賬單接下來都收到了電價很多都反映了請問一下"},{"start":12673.511,"end":12694.91,"text":"通膨還會持續嗎?您對未來的預估是怎樣?然後央行的因應作為是什麼?我跟委員報告,事實上我剛才也有報告過好嗎?事實上呢,通膨現在是有下降區但是呢,我們那你提到就是說我們3月份的時候我們通膨的預測是2.16"},{"start":12697.432,"end":12708.286,"text":"但是呢我們下一季呢我們還是會有新的一個數據因為主計總署呢他從他的第一次前一次的時候呢他說那為什麼你們或主計處講的數據會跟經濟部預測不一樣事實上差一點點而已差一點點就差很多啊沒有沒有沒有"},{"start":12716.656,"end":12721.66,"text":"事實上每一個預測的單位你不要說不可能每一個單位在做預測的時候大家都是一樣不可能因為他會對這個項對這個項對這個項他的一個看法謝謝總裁再來我想問一下也是幫我們年輕朋友問的年輕朋友在想說到底該不該買房"},{"start":12739.714,"end":12768.155,"text":"因為央行不斷的說釋出很多打房的政策嘛讓年輕人覺得說我是不是還一點再買比較好因為未來房價會低啦但財政部因為有那個新清安的貸款嘛蠻多年輕人也利用這個機會趕快去買房子啦所以這有媒體報導就說這有產生矛盾啦所以年輕人現在就那我到底該不該買勒對不對央行告訴我說房價會跌啊然後但是感覺上房市又很熱所以你有沒有給年輕人什麼建議"},{"start":12769.496,"end":12792.366,"text":"我沒有,好,那如果說要講建議的話呢,我只是說因為新青蘭的這個房價,它的期限從30年增加到40年,它的一個,就是說它的頭期5年之內不用還本"},{"start":12793.447,"end":12800.782,"text":"在這種而且他有那個利息上的補貼那我們只能告訴他就是說你的財務的規劃要謹慎"},{"start":12803.775,"end":12811.343,"text":"為什麼因為他他這個期間長第一個他的偷偷他你現在就問我說是不是要不要買房這個我沒辦法回答對我沒辦法回答你"},{"start":12826.218,"end":12832.404,"text":"那現在央行的措施哪一些會比較有效果?我們6月13日會有禮監事會啊我們會討論這個問題會討論?那現在的負案是什麼?我們6月13日就會知道了因為我跟委員報告我們是一個委員會那總裁你個人的想法因為你也是專業人嘛"},{"start":12850.401,"end":12863.676,"text":"我想我跟委員報告第一個我們也是在10天之內是緘默期啦這是第一個第二個是財委員制的我現在跟各位來講說你的護安是什麼也沒有多大意義"},{"start":12864.377,"end":12883.729,"text":"謝謝"},{"start":12893.522,"end":12914.725,"text":"發言完畢本次會議就如下決定一、報告及詢答完畢二、委員諮詢未及答覆或請補充諮詢請相關部會於一周內以書面答覆委員令要求期限者從期鎖定三、委員陳玉珍"},{"start":12915.706,"end":12934.285,"text":"所提書面質詢．列入紀錄刊登公報．並請相關部會以書面答覆。4本次會議議程已進行完畢．如果不在場委員部提書面質詢．亦並列入紀錄刊登公報．並請醫事人員協助處理。散會"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}