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順差然後一直持續的話那台幣的走強是可以預期嘛其實這幾年來喔台幣在周遭國家相對我們的匯率是比較強的我們的幣值也比較強嘛 對不對"},{"start":258.122,"end":267.313,"text":"我跟委員報告 就是說委員的分析是沒有錯不過就是說現在決定匯率的因素不是"},{"start":270.339,"end":296.211,"text":"不是就貿易的這個部分因為我們也就一直在就是說說明事實上現在的外匯市場我們現在外匯市場那個資金的移動這個部分所佔的比重非常高全球我就跟委員報告全球就是說資金的移動的這種金融帳的這個外匯的交易所佔的比重"},{"start":297.051,"end":324.688,"text":"超過95%以上是啦這就是我後面要說的我說正常如果以長程的理論來講是這樣但是因為因素非常的複雜在剛剛講的啊這個跟基金有關啊全世界這麼大金額的基金這麼多我舉個例子以前索羅斯曾經要來舉起台幣嘛那也是他用大量的基金來啊其實這個個人財富要去撼動匯率那是很困難的但是要有大量的基金來做這種"},{"start":325.789,"end":348.071,"text":"巨額的進入 巨額的離開之前有發生亞洲金融危機不是就是為了匯率的咀嚼而來的而是大量的金額的移動所以我覺得這次央行有注意到說對於大筆金額的移動你們有在盯也表達有盯 表達說要跟他溝通"},{"start":349.552,"end":372.865,"text":"講難題就是要請他喝咖啡嘛你來的原因是什麼你剛剛也有講到你進來如果是為了要買股票那我們不反對但是你如果進來parking在那邊大量一直進來準備要賺會差這個我們就不能同意啦對對沒有錯那個委員謝謝謝謝你在這邊來宣示這一次的問題我想到的是另外的問題"},{"start":375.186,"end":381.572,"text":"因為這次有非常大的這個預期心理不是只有基金的移動另外還有"},{"start":383.208,"end":412.45,"text":"我不知道為什麼有很多人就是對於川普完全就抱著非常懷疑非常不信任認為他做的都是壞事這樣的角度在看待事情所以他就去拿什麼海湖莊園啊什麼新台幣會升值到13.3比1啊他用大麥克指數所謂大麥克指數當然內行人知道他用大麥克指數去認為台幣的這個購買力等於是應該對美金是13.3用這樣的角度來講的話台幣一定會巨幅升值"},{"start":413.191,"end":437.167,"text":"結果就引發了群眾心理這個就某種角度類似銀行的擠兌同一個時間大家都要去領錢同一個時間大家都要去換費就還引起網路塞車我現在也想到這當然是金融網路的課題現在有網路銀行已經有三家這個問題不是只有塞車如果你在那邊流量"},{"start":438.388,"end":451.834,"text":"很大上次美國倒了幾家銀行尤其是矽谷的銀行就是同一時間大家都是因為網路的關係所有的大公司都是網路立刻把錢轉走等於是"},{"start":453.168,"end":471.377,"text":"以前擠兌還要人工去銀行分行排隊領錢你要領大量的錢你要派卡車運鈔車來載現在的網路銀行因為網路的關係我會走多少錢是根本只是一個案件的這個動作"},{"start":473.328,"end":495.141,"text":"所以我是覺得這一方面金融機構要有新的想法面對網路暢通無阻之後如果同時大量的預期心理同時去進行網路的動作的話一方面網路塞車被罵爆了我要辦 辦不到但是如果你都完全順暢的話"},{"start":496.738,"end":523.532,"text":"很可能會引起這種災難委員你的分析我非常佩服確實是這樣子就是說像美國的那個最近那個錢搬出去速度之快一樣的就是說你外匯的買賣呢一個訊息呢他就會能夠有那個羊群的那個效應大家一窩蜂的確實您的分析是非常正確的"},{"start":525.193,"end":540.624,"text":"過去台灣的外匯資料看起來緩升跟急升各有利弊緩升的最大的弊弊是有預期心理所以不會停我不知道你要緩步升到哪裡所以我每天投入都會賺"},{"start":542.085,"end":570.197,"text":"那就導致大家都每天都在玩這個就長期而言就政府就大失血而且終點在哪裡不知道緩身就緩身的困難提升的困難在哪裡呢是做這些外做這些出口的進口的他因為對於這個匯率要多少不清楚他報價很困難所以導致他短期之間的營運困難第二個困難就是說他可能他的避險成本要花很多"},{"start":571.798,"end":597.04,"text":"所以這個其實如果匯率在上漲或是下跌無論是緩跟急喔都各有利弊啦但是你們央行就是要很注意這個是不是有惡意性的人為操控譬如說要外大量的基金要來套現要來套利就要注意防止這個東西是是是沒有錯沒有錯所以我就覺得應該要讓媒體知道啊對"},{"start":598.061,"end":613.631,"text":"其實集生如果是確定進來幣的幣值假設是30點多集生不見得比返生不好如果我知道現在的幣值從33塊要升到30點多而且是慢慢升的話讓我每天進去都賺錢是 沒有錯"},{"start":615.772,"end":640.768,"text":"所以委員的這個說法我非常贊同這個也就是說為什麼我們在我們在禮拜一就5月5號的時候我們出來臨時的記者會那也非常好的就是說立法院就是財委會呢也給我們的這個機會來衝刃再次的說明再次的澄清好那就加油這個方面的控制就是對於那個"},{"start":641.99,"end":646.723,"text":"大量的資金 突然之間來突襲的我們還是要有以待之啦 小心防備"}]},"gazette":{"lineno":376,"blocks":[["吳委員秉叡：（10時）主席，麻煩請央行楊總裁。"],["主席：有請央行楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：吳委員早。"],["吳委員秉叡：總裁好。今天雖然題目是研究要成立基金與否，但是我看今天主題的焦點都在你身上，因為大家關心匯率。先講我們今天的主題，我看到你的報告裡面主張，不贊成由外匯存底撥，但有幾個方式，包括是不是可以向民間募資，或是像財政部出錢等等幾個你們列的方式。其實我覺得向民間募資是一個不錯的方法，如果大家對於政府將來成立這個專門機構的投資有信心，民間募資等於是國債，至少讓現在臺灣充沛的超額儲蓄或想要投資的金額有地方去。因為有很多人還去買美債，如果對中華民國有信心、對臺灣有信心，買臺灣國債也是一個不錯的方法，只是以前我們對於這方面國債發行的控制一直很嚴格。我覺得這也是一個不錯的方法，你的看法呢？"],["楊總裁金龍：我也覺得如果只有就那個debt，就是我們中央的債務占GDP的比重，以目前來看差不多是25、29%左右而已，跟其他國家比較，說實在我們的財政紀律非常嚴謹。"],["吳委員秉叡：是，這個我知道。"],["楊總裁金龍：嚴謹的意思就是，事實上財政還是有空間的。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以如果這個是專門為國發基金而向民間募資所發行的國債，如果你要算入這個債務總量，那就不一定很好用，因為在馬政府時代曾經舉借高達百分之三十八點多，你知道嗎？上限就40.7%而已，那時候剩下將近三個百分點就破表了，是近十餘年的努力之後，現在才降到百分之二十五點多的狀況。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：如果要走發行國債這個路子，是不是那一部分發行的公債應該不要計入總量裡面，為什麼？因為國家只是發行之後，把你的錢拿來當國發基金，他並沒有把它拿去花掉，並不是負債的觀念喔！我是覺得這樣子才會比較有空間，我是贊成這樣的方式，不過這個目前只是在研議階段。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：距離具體成案應該還要花很多的心力。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以我們就回到現在的熱點上面來談匯率的問題。"],["楊總裁金龍：好。"],["吳委員秉叡：如果單只有兩個國家的貿易，因為匯率其實非常複雜，而且是整個世界的、跟不同國家之間的變動。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["吳委員秉叡：單純就國際貿易，兩個國家之間的匯率，如果是長期的出超國，他的貨幣本來就是應該慢慢要升值。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：入超國本來就是貨幣會比較弱勢，正常狀況是這樣講。所以臺灣如果長程對美國是一直加大出超、順差，一直持續的話，那臺幣的走強是可以預期的。其實這幾年來，臺幣在周遭國家中，相對地我們的匯率是比較強的，我們的幣值也比較強，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，委員的分析沒有錯，不過現在決定匯率的因素不是只有貿易的這個部分，我們也都一直在說明，事實上，現在外匯市場資金移動所占的比重非常高，我跟委員報告，全球資金移動這種金融帳的外匯交易所占的比重超過95%。"],["吳委員秉叡：是啦，這是我後面要說的。我是說，正常如果以長程的理論來講是這樣，但是因為因素非常複雜，再加上剛剛講的，這個跟基金有關啊！全世界這麼大金額的基金這麼多，我舉一個例子，以前索羅斯曾經要來狙擊臺幣，他也是用大量的基金來啊！其實要以個人財富去撼動匯率是很困難的，而是要有大量的基金來做這種巨額的進入、巨額的離開，之前發生亞洲金融危機不就是為了匯率的狙擊而來的嗎？"],["楊總裁金龍：是、是、是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：那是大量金額的移動。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，委員說的沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以我覺得這次央行有注意到，對於大筆金額的移動，你們有在盯嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：你表達有盯嘛！你表達說要跟他溝通嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：對、對、對。"],["吳委員秉叡：講得難聽一點，就是要請他喝咖啡，問他來的原因是什麼。你剛剛也有講到，進來如果是為了要買股票，我們不反對，但是如果進來之後parking在那邊，大量一直進來，準備要賺匯差，這個我們就不能同意了。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，沒有錯。謝謝委員在這邊宣示這件事情。"],["吳委員秉叡：這次的事情我想到的是另外的問題，因為這次有非常大的預期心理，不是只有基金的移動，另外還有……我不知道為什麼，有很多人就是對川普完全抱著非常懷疑、非常不信任的想法，認為他做的都是壞事，以這樣的角度在看待事情，所以就去拿什麼海湖莊園、新臺幣會升值到13.3比1，運用大麥克指數（總裁是內行人，當然知道什麼是大麥克指數），認為臺幣的購買力對美金等於13.3，用這樣的角度來說臺幣一定會巨幅升值，結果就引發了群眾心理，某種角度就類似銀行的擠兌，同一個時間大家都要去領錢，同一個時間大家都要去換匯，還引起網路塞車耶！這當然是金管會的課題，現在已經有3家網路銀行，這個問題不是只有塞車，如果讓它流量很大，上次美國倒了幾家銀行？尤其是矽谷的銀行，就是同一時間因為網路的關係，所有的大公司都透過網路立刻把錢轉走。以前擠兌還要人工去銀行、分行排隊領錢，領大量的錢要派卡車、運鈔車去載，現在因為網路銀行的關係，要匯走多少錢根本就是幾個按鍵的動作而已，所以我是覺得這方面金融機構要有新的想法。面對網路暢通無阻之後，如果基於大量的預期心理，同時去進行網路的動作的話，一方面網路塞車被罵爆，有人想辦卻辦不到，但是如果完全順暢的話，很可能會引起金融災難耶！"],["楊總裁金龍：委員的分析我非常佩服，確實是這樣，像美國最近錢搬出去的速度之快也是一樣，就是外匯買賣只要一個訊息就能產生羊群效應，大家一窩蜂。您的分析確實是非常正確的。"],["吳委員秉叡：從臺灣過去的外匯資料看起來，緩升和急升各有利弊，緩升最大的弊病是有預期心理，所以它不會停，因為我不知道你要緩步升到哪裡，所以我每天投入都會賺，那就導致大家每天都在玩這個，長期而言，政府就會大失血。"],["楊總裁金龍：是啦，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：而且終點在哪裡？不知道。緩升就有緩升的困難。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["吳委員秉叡：急升的困難在哪裡呢？就是這些做出口、進口的，因為對於匯率多少不清楚，他報價很困難，導致他短期之間營運困難，第二個困難就是他的避險成本可能要花很多。所以匯率的上漲、下跌，無論緩或急都各有利弊，但是你們央行就是要很注意其中是否有惡意的人為操控，譬如大量基金要來套現、要來套利，要注意防止這個東西嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：是、是、是，沒有錯、沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以我是覺得應該要讓媒體知道啊！其實急升如果確定新臺幣的幣值，假設是三十點多，急升不見得比緩升不好耶！如果我知道現在幣值從三十三塊要升到三十點多，而且是慢慢升的話，那我每天進去都賺錢啊！"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯啦！所以委員的這個說法我非常贊同，這也就是為什麼我們在禮拜一（5月5日）的時候出來召開臨時記者會，同時非常好的就是，立法院財委會也給我們機會來充分地再次說明、再次澄清。"],["吳委員秉叡：好，那就加油！"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝！"],["吳委員秉叡：這方面的控制，就是對於大量資金突然之間來突襲，我們還是要有以待之、小心防備。好，謝謝。"],["楊總裁金龍：好，謝謝委員。"],["主席（賴委員士葆）：謝謝吳委員的質詢。","下一位請賴惠員委員質詢。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":364,"meet_id":"委員會-11-3-20-11","speakers":["賴士葆","林德福","顏寬恒","吳秉叡","賴惠員","郭國文","羅明才","李彥秀","李坤城","鍾佳濱","楊瓊瓔","黃珊珊","王世堅","林思銘","涂權吉","王鴻薇","謝龍介","陳玉珍","陳冠廷","林楚茵","翁曉玲"],"page_start":287,"meetingDate":["2025-05-08"],"gazette_id":"1144701","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1144701_00007"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第3會期財政委員會第11次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請行政院主計總處陳主計長淑姿、財政部莊部長翠雲、中央銀行楊總裁金龍、國家發展委員會\n劉主任委員鏡清、勞動部洪部長申翰、銓敘部施部長能傑就「我國如果要設立國家主權基金，中\n央銀行與政府相關基金（如四大基金等）所扮演的角色為何？」進行專題報告，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1144701_00006"}}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}