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敬請會事指教"},{"start":1936.409,"end":1955.707,"text":"我們這個報告有事先給各位委員我就很簡要的跟各位報告請翻開第二頁全球的經濟和溫和擴張通膨降溫本年全球及主要經濟體成長都頻繁預期明年持續溫和擴張"},{"start":1957.769,"end":1965.174,"text":"S&P Global Global預期本年全球金融成長率為2.7%, 類低於上年的2.8%明年預測的金融成長率持平在2.7%"},{"start":1974.775,"end":2003.554,"text":"二、國際油價只得回升為全球通膨壓力持續降溫第三月、S&P Global也預測本年全球通膨率由上年的5.7%降至4.5%明年續降至3.3%多數經濟體通膨率將於明年降至接近央行2%的目標。放在第四月二、FED跟ECB開啟降息的循環"},{"start":2004.895,"end":2021.02,"text":"BOJ逐步調升利率．人行則加大寬鬆的力道．請翻開第六頁三、近期主要經濟體10年期公債殖利率回升．美元反彈、股市漲多跌少．請翻開第八頁"},{"start":2021.92,"end":2038.585,"text":"四、全球經濟前景面臨諸多不確定因素影響全球通膨逐步的趨緩為經濟前景人面臨各國央行貨幣政策調整不法不一全球經濟零碎化"},{"start":2039.045,"end":2039.285,"text":"第九位"},{"start":2058.372,"end":2075.458,"text":"國內的經濟金融情勢本年臺灣經濟成長將高於上年明年持續穩健成長本行預測我國全年經濟成長率為3.82%高於上年的1.28%第十月本行預測明年續成長3.08%第十月失業率季節性回升薪資溫和成長"},{"start":2087.021,"end":2097.889,"text":"第13月三預期本年下半年通膨率低於上半年明年將續降至2%以下。8月起"},{"start":2099.511,"end":2123.304,"text":"陸續因油料費蔬菜價格轉成下跌以及水果價格漲幅縮小CPI年增益回降至9月的1.82%是本年2月以來最低不含蔬果及能源之核心CPI年增益則曾緩步回降趨勢至9月為1.79%亦是本年2月以來新低"},{"start":2124.564,"end":2136.775,"text":"14月本年一至九月平均CPI年增益為2.26%第15月國內無輸入性通膨壓力預測本年下半年及明年通膨率續降第16月"},{"start":2140.912,"end":2149.418,"text":"本年九月本行預測本年全年CPI及核心CPI年增益分別為2.16%,1.94%主要機構對台灣本年CPI的年增益的預測平均是2.15%十七月"},{"start":2159.737,"end":2169.668,"text":"本行在9月的時候預測全年的CPI及核心CPI年增率分別降為1.89%,1.79%設施明年的CPI的預測。請翻開20月。"},{"start":2179.468,"end":2199.95,"text":"一、本年9月本行維持政策利率不變有助整體經濟金融穩健的發展。二、本行以道德勸說方式預請銀行自主控管未來一年不動產貸款總量改善信用資源過度集中不動產貸款的情況。"},{"start":2208.015,"end":2233.033,"text":"二、請翻開二十五月三．本行第七次調整選擇性信用管制措施．並搭配調升存款準備率．進一步強化管理銀行信用資源．抑制房市突擊與囤房行為．並引導信用資源優先提供．無自用自宅者過屋貸款．請翻開二十七月"},{"start":2234.281,"end":2261.939,"text":"卦吾山本年九月本行搭配調升存款準備率0.25個百分點透過加強貨幣信用資數量管理以強化本行道德勸說及本次選擇性信用管制措施成效將有助進一步減緩信用資源流向不動產市場二十九月四本年迄今新台幣兌美元貶值為相對主要貨幣匯率穩定"},{"start":2265.421,"end":2280.985,"text":"從本年迄今國內匯市美元需求大於供給新台幣對美元貶值4.45%同期間國內匯市出現美元超額需求本行進場調節禁賣匯90.6億美元以維持國內匯市穩定新台幣對美元貶值5.29%"},{"start":2289.704,"end":2316.949,"text":"30月1月2日本年以來．國內匯市走勢都由國際美元走勢及外資進出所主導．多數期間外資與國內資金流向股市支撐台股大漲之際．獲利了結部分持股並匯出資金．部分時期因而出現股匯市不同步"},{"start":2320.106,"end":2340.652,"text":"二、三十二月卦吾山2023年迄今新來幣兌美元貶值幅雖大於多數主要貨幣為新來幣波動幅度較小二、三十四月卦吾四本年九月底本行外匯存底較上年底增加主要反映本行外匯存底投資運用效益"},{"start":2346.335,"end":2353.727,"text":"請各位觀看我們的第二部分第七波選擇性信用管制之配套措施專題報告"},{"start":2355.704,"end":2378.3,"text":"本行於本年9月20日調整中央銀行對金融機構辦理不動產抵押貸款業務規定,以下下稱本規定。二、本年10月9日本行發布本行選擇性信用管制規範之協助措施．它的要點第一、貨物一49月"},{"start":2379.441,"end":2398.673,"text":"自然人因據承取得之房屋及房貸不計入本規定這款人名下房屋數及房貸戶數一及自然人只有據承取得之房屋者新生貸之過屋貸款非高價住宅貸款不受本規定的限制"},{"start":2399.614,"end":2416.849,"text":"告二、自然而然有房屋者應有實質的換屋需求,兼與曾代金融機構確決約定下列數項後,新生代之第一戶或第二戶過屋貸款不受本規定的相關限制。"},{"start":2419.38,"end":2437.67,"text":"第五十月有關本行協處措施之詳細內容本行並已公告於本行網站至於民眾對本規定或協處措施有不明瞭或因個案複雜而需協助者本行亦已設置14條專線提供協助"},{"start":2446.283,"end":2468.372,"text":"則與以上僅就國內外經濟金融情勢．以本行主要業務及專題報告提出簡要的簡報至於本行調節金融通貨發行．外匯管理及經理國庫等業務概況則置於賦入進請著參本行捐付促進金融穩定健全銀行業務．"},{"start":2470.531,"end":2494.167,"text":"維護對內及對外幣值的穩定堅固協助經濟發展之法定職責隨時密切注意國內外經濟金融形勢的發展妥適應用各種政策工具以達成政策目標本行業務述呈各位委員鼎助與支持謹藉此機會表達衷心感謝之意今後仍請各位委員實事指教謝謝"},{"start":2498.373,"end":2522.217,"text":"好,謝謝總裁那現在開始詢答先做以下的宣告每位出席的委員花言的時間是8分鐘必要的時候我們延長是2分鐘每位列席的委員花言的時間是5分鐘那今天上午10點截止花言登記現在依登記的順序請登記第一位林德虎委員質詢是"},{"start":2537.945,"end":2543.953,"text":"謝謝主席是不是請這個央行的楊總裁好總裁"},{"start":2555.024,"end":2582.863,"text":"林委員早總裁你早總裁我請教因為央行為維持金融穩定及健全銀行的業務希望資金不要過度流向不動產市場那現在演變成影響房市最大的黑手正在辦理房貸的部分金融消費者也因為貸款受挫而把矛頭對向央行"},{"start":2584.864,"end":2607.21,"text":"總裁媒體下標第七波信用管制是金龍你的名字金龍海嘯不是龍之的龍現在黃代錦說信用管制重篡黃氏交易量位於金龍海嘯第一排的黃仲業近期交易狀況慘不忍睹請問你認為黃仲業的狀況是正常嗎"},{"start":2614.16,"end":2627.793,"text":"我跟委員報告那我想我們的報告在我們的報告裡面我們有充分說明為什麼我們會做這個第七波的選擇性信用管制措施"},{"start":2628.914,"end":2643.093,"text":"那事實上呢我們也都知道就是說在前一年我們的一個房市太過熱了太熱了那所以呢也就是說在太熱的情況之下呢我總覺得讓它擴大讓它冷卻下來"},{"start":2647.899,"end":2673.941,"text":"這個就長期我們的房地產的市場我個人還有包括我們的委員會都覺得這是好的那個楊總裁因為上個月央行記者會說明房市管制措施時總裁你強調央行要打擊房價上漲的預期心理那請問你認為現在是不是已經到達房價上漲預期心理的臨界點"},{"start":2676.439,"end":2698.807,"text":"我想就是說在一直房市在房價一直高漲的過程當中就是說它一直上去那我們就金融穩定的一個觀點來看我們確實是有一點憂慮所以呢我們就是說做了這個第七波的選擇性信用管制我們希望我們的這個預期心理能夠緩轉回來"},{"start":2702.808,"end":2728.661,"text":"那這個預期心理要緩轉呢是不大容易的是不大容易的我們希望就是說藉這一次還有包括就是說財政部的的屯房稅還有就是平均地權內政部的像這些的措施呢慢慢的要發酵以後呢這樣這個預期的心理能夠緩轉回來慢慢的能夠就是說能夠soft landing能夠江總裁"},{"start":2729.161,"end":2751.338,"text":"那你認為在哪種情況下有可能發生國內黃式泡沫化?我想以目前來看我覺得因為以目前我們銀行體系還是算是非常的健全的所以我們總覺得如果在這個時刻來出手的話也許是時間是會比較好"},{"start":2753.84,"end":2772.81,"text":"不要就是說等到後面那邊的時候才出手那這不好所以說總裁你認為他不會泡沫化嗎?我想泡沫這個是很難去定義的但是畢竟就是說我們所看到的是預期心理太強那他的房價也是上漲的速度太快"},{"start":2774.03,"end":2799.095,"text":"那這個泡沫要怎麼去定義實在是也很難那你認為又或者是有哪些因素催化這個稚雞皇室泡沫化的可能性呢會不會當然就是說如果說預期如果說預期這個還是在強調預期就是說預期他的房價都一直在上漲的時候呢那麼大家就會拼命的去買房子"},{"start":2800.014,"end":2815.379,"text":"那這個就很容易就是催化了這個他的泡沫那個總裁今年3月中旬央行業務報告時你曾說健全皇室方案需要跨部會的合作同意政策要有一致性"},{"start":2816.559,"end":2842.55,"text":"並表示央行選擇性信用管制目的並非抑制整個台灣的房價在意的是金融的穩定那如果房價上漲金融依然相當穩定央行會抱持這個謹慎的態度總裁那因為經過半年的時間央行也持續推出對健全房市的方案或做法而且"},{"start":2844.07,"end":2863.286,"text":"選擇性的信用管制力道似乎越來越重的這種跡象那我請問央行是不是認為國內房市整個發展的狀況已經有出現對金融穩定產生動搖的跡象所以才會加重來管制這樣的一個做法"},{"start":2864.727,"end":2888.457,"text":"我們是擔心持續的下去的話是不好對整個我們的房地產的一個長期的健全的發展是不好的對金融穩定它是一種威脅所以我們必須要做未雨綢繆要必須在事先的時候來出手然後抑制這個房價上漲的預期心理總裁"},{"start":2889.997,"end":2904.697,"text":"如果有過去像日本資產的一個泡沫美國次貸的這種危機以及近年來中國房地產的問題哪種狀況是我們現階段需要作為借鏡的"},{"start":2905.037,"end":2930.432,"text":"您認為呢?我想就是說日本跟美國這個情況呢都非常的清楚啦也就是說一開始的時候大家對於這個房地產的那個預期的心理政府沒有做很好的一個沒有很很謹慎的去處理它它導致了它的泡沫它垮下來那中國大陸呢它的出所呢是"},{"start":2932.393,"end":2957.55,"text":"可能是有一點太慢有一點太慢然後而且出手太重才導致現在他現在你看看我看看就是說他現在有一點就是說要讓他要再上來的那個力道好像是不足的是不足所以我總覺得中國大陸的這個案子是值得我們去接近的"},{"start":2958.871,"end":2975.04,"text":"那個總裁如果沒有那你認為幾波的選擇性信用管制措施下來會不會讓外界感覺政府的做法是高高級取輕輕放下會不會也不會啦我想是就是說到目前為止"},{"start":2976.04,"end":2984.306,"text":"這是我剛才所說的就是說財政部的屯房稅還有就是內政部的一個平均地權還有專業銀行的選擇性信用管制還有金管會的一些的措施我覺得呢應該我們你目前如果說這樣的持續的謹慎的來推動的話呢我覺得呢我們的我們的房地產應該還是會賺錢的所以說總裁認為不會說高高級級輕輕放下也不會應該也不會那個總裁又或者讓投機客"},{"start":3005.78,"end":3028.289,"text":"施定政府變成小雞的遊戲中轉彎逃跑的懦夫角色會不會我想也不會啦因為報告就是我跟委員報告就像我們這一次對於就是說已經有房子的然後他要身帶第一副的這個我們就要我們就用那個什麼寬限期就禁止寬限期"},{"start":3029.99,"end":3033.174,"text":"那進寬限期就是說防止他用寬限期來做槓桿然後不斷的在突擊像這種也不會是輕輕高高舉上輕輕放下我覺得這一次這一個算是蠻重要的總裁"},{"start":3052.253,"end":3071.046,"text":"因為媒體報導央行宣布祭出第七波選擇性信用管制被視為史上最重房市管制的政策那震驚整個市場更是楊總裁直接向投資客宣戰展現去除房市過度的槓桿"},{"start":3072.287,"end":3098.74,"text":"的決心那總裁出眾手打草王有名義代表擔憂恐怕濫殺無辜所以說你說會在一個月內盡快提出配套必要時將對所謂的無辜者給予協助或是這個提出排除的條款會持續聽取各方的意見那我請問總裁央行推出選擇性信用管制的"},{"start":3099.86,"end":3119.18,"text":"做法前對外界所指可能出現無辜者有沒有一定的瞭解?事實上呢我們因為我們幾波下來的時候呢多多少少我們都會知道就是說哪一些我們必須要注意他的比如說換房子的"},{"start":3123.163,"end":3149.933,"text":"換王子的你看我們上一波我們就已經把它排除掉了然後呢事實上呢繼承者事實上我們以前我們也都有注意到只有說當時呢我們沒有對這個第一戶我們沒有對第一戶啊然後沒有房沒有房貸那現在他要房貸的時候我們給他就是限制了寬限體事實上呢這個我們就因為以前有注意但是我們對這一個我們沒有實施管制嘛"},{"start":3150.313,"end":3164.93,"text":"所以這一次管制的時候呢我們也事實上我們老早我們也有想到這個意思這樣齁是是是又或者採取預告性的做法一邊威嚇一邊試水溫再來排除所謂無辜者"},{"start":3165.47,"end":3192.315,"text":"目的就是要對投機客這個勿忘勿重是不是這樣子是是是沒錯因為現在有公股銀行表示將會爭取這個繼承房屋以小換大等兩類換屋族可被排除在簽竊結束配套下可獲寬限期那我請問總裁你認為做法可行嗎我可行啊可行喔當然可行對"},{"start":3193.736,"end":3204.845,"text":"我認為配套措施應該要早日提出來讓大家瞭解好不好謝謝謝謝林德虎委員接著請吳秉瑞委員發言"},{"start":3219.281,"end":3222.744,"text":"主席麻煩請央行楊總裁是,楊總裁吳委員早總裁早是我們海峽對岸的中國是那個經濟狀況非常的糟糕是那各種亂象看到他其實就是已經在一個通縮的通貨緊縮的狀況所以他做禁用非常大的力道"},{"start":3247.645,"end":3263.483,"text":"那個資金超級寬鬆．包括等於是央行拆借大量的資金給銀行．然後銀行可以讓這些上市公司．這個經營者跟大股東可以買入股票．然後再直接然後再買"},{"start":3265.744,"end":3289.39,"text":"這個就是可以循環的加倍槓桿加上他又宣布3年內要印6兆元人民幣的長期國債等等各種跡象這就是他的貨幣政策已經是沒有定毛了他現在高興印多少就印多少這個會造成什麼樣子的影響"},{"start":3290.949,"end":3317.355,"text":"我跟委員報告事實上很多的國家包括美國當時在financial crisis他所做的一個措施也是有類似的一個做法所以中國大陸他現在面臨的一些的問題國內的一些內需還有通說剛剛委員所說的他是希望在貨幣政策跟財政政策"},{"start":3319.076,"end":3347.97,"text":"特別是這兩個因為這兩個也許會速度會比較快至於就是說結構性的改變那可能要很慢所以他這兩個他要實施那實施這個事實上是不是能夠達到這個效果有些時候我們可以拭目以待我們也可以看看就像日本日本的時候他也是非常寬鬆的貨幣政策但是他到最後他也要經過10年20年甚至現在30年他慢慢再上來了"},{"start":3348.47,"end":3369.019,"text":"有人說中國的狀況比日本更嚴重日本雖然這個有所謂的失落了30年那他的泡沫經濟破裂但是日本的產業很多是外移到全世界其他地方去投資所以他是有辦法還有維持住日本財富的元氣可是中國這種"},{"start":3371.6,"end":3384.225,"text":"狀況他事實上因為他是一個極權國家他是一個用政府用政治的手段大量的干預經濟跟還有剛剛講的這些財政作為對那"},{"start":3385.165,"end":3385.405,"text":"對,沒有錯是"},{"start":3402.105,"end":3420.069,"text":"那這個政府的財政狀況這麼差還在一直用這個大量的補貼然後大量的生產低價傾銷全世界引起全世界的貿易摩擦現在各國都在對他提起很多的關稅或是對於他個別產品傾銷的這個反傾銷的這個特別關稅甚至"},{"start":3426.01,"end":3441.744,"text":"美國總統在三個禮拜就要選了川普如果當選宣稱中國所有的貨物至少都要60%以上的關稅是是那這個對全球化當然是不是一件好事啦對對那這就是大家又提高了自己關稅的"},{"start":3443.63,"end":3459.05,"text":"說以前的數據叫關稅壁壘那製造了這個世界貿易之間的困難但是這個病的根源是因為中國不尊重世界的這個生產秩序不照照理來講有多少的需求我再做多少的生產"},{"start":3460.271,"end":3489.367,"text":"這中間應該有一個合理的調控結果他沒有他的生產管生產然後計劃經濟我反正生產我要到達多少目標你看現在全世界的大宗物資尤其是傳產的幾乎都被中國修理這麼慘可是在這樣的狀況之下中國的房地產崩潰中國的通貨緊縮用大水漫灌無毛印鈔的方法的財政手段跟這個金融的手段就試圖要去拉伸"},{"start":3490.916,"end":3507.081,"text":"總裁坦白講我個人認為是悲觀啦他這個短期效果或許上海A股你短期時間中國硬是要撐住他讓他上漲但是他的歷史過程大家都注意在看"},{"start":3508.424,"end":3532.965,"text":"他因為用上海A股要上場的過程中吸引了非常多20幾歲30歲的年輕人到網路上P2P的借貸然後到銀行去信用貸款就衝進去股市結果現在大量套牢阿結果這些年輕人他的信用就等於破產了嘛所以"},{"start":3535.123,"end":3556.08,"text":"這個亂象我們看在眼裡但是我們要他山之石可以攻錯不好的例子我們也要學我們要知道說這是不可以的所以過度的宣傳因為現在網路很厲害過度的宣傳或是過度的政府做多都有可能會引起這種亂象"},{"start":3559.418,"end":3576.98,"text":"就你的觀點來看未來要如何收拾?報告委員我總覺得那個委員講到這個貨幣政策的時候我也深感同意就是說貨幣政策的一個實施要非常的謹慎"},{"start":3578.081,"end":3604.124,"text":"要非常的謹慎特別就是說有一點在用資金來拉拔這個如果說在沒有經濟基礎基本面支持的情況之下要來拉拔的時候這個時候要非常小心所以貨幣政策在整個的國家的金融經濟的穩定裡面它也是扮演一個很重要的一個角色"},{"start":3605.425,"end":3627.561,"text":"那其實如果在一般照正常化經濟貿易的國家國家的政策也不一定馬上就能夠撼動他的財政這些金融政策我舉一個例子日本首相石破茂上台之後他認為安倍三屆至今寬鬆的時代應該已經要做一個終結因為日本股市也漲到快要4"},{"start":3628.882,"end":3656.209,"text":"四萬點然後日本最近這幾個月其實開始出現通膨的狀況所以他是要打算應該要緊縮貨幣然後所以有一陣子日幣升值到對美金一百四十幾塊嘛對一美元嘛但最近又掉下來啦又掉到一百五十幾所以也不見得說政府的主觀的想法就能夠去完全的引導這樣的貨幣貨幣的狀況因為大家如果在全世界裡面"},{"start":3656.969,"end":3676.235,"text":"要正常的遊戲規則之下我們是要遵照世界的規範啊也不是你想怎麼幹就怎麼幹的是沒有錯沒有錯那日本的狀況你覺得會怎麼樣日本的狀況現在就是說他一直在強調的就是說他的一個薪資跟通膨要良性的循環"},{"start":3677.355,"end":3693.415,"text":"好那現在也就是說他的通膨上漲的時候呢他的薪資要能夠也能夠比這個通膨來的高但是現在呢就是說看起來有幾季有一段時間是有這樣子但是呢他還是沒沒辦法去確定"},{"start":3695.257,"end":3724.278,"text":"是不是這個良性的循環是不是已經是成立啊完成了所以呢他現在也是在密切的關注當中對就由於你剛剛的講話就看到臺灣啦齁臺灣這幾年每一年都提高基本工資嘛是然後甚至也有幾年年均公教的薪水也調漲嘛是那當然今年預算在審查還沒有過我們不能夠保證明年1月1號就一定能夠調升我們均公教的薪水是那預算如果審查通過才可以是那"},{"start":3724.818,"end":3741.31,"text":"但是就是回到剛剛這個問題我們的基本工資的調升以及軍公教薪水的調升其實也都會帶動CPI的上漲只是那個比例你認為這樣子是不是適當因為這個比例是不高的如果說就工資來講的話"},{"start":3742.671,"end":3764.831,"text":"公司跟公教人員的上賬公教人員上賬對我們CPI的影響不是很大就0.0幾而已主要的還是在基本工資因為工資會影響到它的一個經營的成本然後轉嫁給消費者不過整個來評估一下的話它也是差不多會0.1幾而已"},{"start":3766.933,"end":3792.923,"text":"所以基本上不會黑信你剛剛的報告喔對所以你對明年的CPI的預設是1.8、1.8多這個是一個很好的數字啦是但是明年就剛剛講的CPI的上漲裡面包括基本工資的調漲軍工教的調漲另外我們今年年底開始要開始討論碳稅那也有一部分碳稅要開增這幾個都是導致CPI會上漲的因素"},{"start":3793.443,"end":3809.174,"text":"那在這樣的累加之下你有信心明年的CPI只有到1.8級嗎?我們暫時目前我們的估測是這樣子的不過我們會慢慢的因為我們每季每季都會做一些的調整我們會密切的注意它"},{"start":3809.794,"end":3825.921,"text":"對,那另外就是說我們最近也有花了一些錢在控制我們的購買美金啊控制我們的幣值的穩定這穩定在這是很好但是你知道美國用三個標準在看待我們有沒有操縱這個匯率那我們每一年都有兩個"},{"start":3828.022,"end":3844.256,"text":"還是要跟美國加強溝通嗎?我們會我們會我們持續齁我們跟美國財政部的互動呢非常良好總裁我覺得你能夠把這個財政政策做得這樣穩健我是很欽佩啦希望能夠繼續努力是一個很好的總裁謝謝好謝謝秉瑞那接著請陳益臻委員質詢"},{"start":3858.533,"end":3862.034,"text":"主席,我們請總裁喔好,請總裁早安早我們看到賴總統宣誓要讓台灣成為亞洲資產管理中心我們金管會同時也端出一個六年期的五大具體計畫那在一個台灣上市櫃協會的東方領袖講座裡頭"},{"start":3885.944,"end":3903.693,"text":"這個企業交友提出來就是說台灣可不可能放寬外匯管制那彭卓議士說會尊重尊重央行嘛那盡量溝通是那央行對於這個賴總統所提出來這個打造台灣成為亞洲亞洲資產管理中心這個政策支持嗎"},{"start":3904.753,"end":3906.895,"text":"首先我要澄清一下,事實上我們是外匯管理而不是外匯管制"},{"start":3923.588,"end":3948.867,"text":"外匯管理,鬆綁一點支持嗎?那當然是,外匯管理我們會持續的事實上我跟委員報告事實上我們的外匯管理說實在是很輕的很輕?是,那個資金的進出說實在你看看外資要進來來來來,我們來看看你們寫的這個報告裡頭有提到這個你們說支持打造台灣成為亞洲資產管理中心"},{"start":3949.608,"end":3964.244,"text":"那但是對於這個這個外匯的部分你說外幣資金已經完全自由了是然後接著外匯商品已經相當開放對但是涉及新台幣匯率者央行"},{"start":3965.385,"end":3965.945,"text":"我們現在國家要設這個金融特區嘛"},{"start":3992.894,"end":4013.689,"text":"現在沒有外國人依照自由貿易港區設立管理條例的這個10條控股公司因為有人跟我認為說是因為這個規定僅能辦理不涉及新台幣的外幣的匯兌還有外幣的交易那如果未來開放金融特區的時候那你們的說法是外幣跟外幣比如說美元跟歐元之間的這個你們不管嘛"},{"start":4014.509,"end":4020.956,"text":"但是涉及新台幣的部分是不是有進一步開放的可能呢還是說你們還是會以避險這個原則來去做相關的管理我們來看看他的情況他是到底是怎麼樣要來避險的事實上以現在目前的避險的工序也是蠻多的"},{"start":4034.77,"end":4039.331,"text":"我跟委員報告事實上呢他如果說在這個特區裡面他要做怎樣的一個避嫌那我們會配合他"},{"start":4057.997,"end":4080.263,"text":"我想這個是不會：所以說對於金管會所提出來相當相關的建議你們會支持就對了你們會支持好這樣我們都會支持好那我想請問喔要不然不要只是口頭上的說要支持那行動上對於金管會想要打造賴總統所宣誓的這個亞洲資產管理中心也要行動上具體支持嗎我們亞洲銀行一定是配合"},{"start":4081.984,"end":4107.726,"text":"那我們看後續的發展然後接著你看台灣金融研訓院跟美國智庫最近有進行中國主要以金融經濟手段資訊網路圍攻台灣的兵推這個16日在華府發表報告那金融研訓院倡議說台灣要加入國際貨幣資金和美國簽署貨幣互換協定強化台灣的金融韌性但你知道這件事情嗎"},{"start":4109.187,"end":4133.895,"text":"我跟委員報告事實上呢我們針對這個我們也發布新聞稿對你們發布的新聞是8號的時候說台灣外匯純利充裕啊取得美元流動機制完備啊所以目前沒有與其他國家央行簽署貨幣互換沒有錯沒有錯那你的這個研訓院研訓院是你們下面的單位嗎還是我們下面的單位研訓院是今天研訓院說是"},{"start":4134.435,"end":4162.162,"text":"是金管會金管會金管單位也跟我們政府相關的嘛是是他們唱音說要和美國簽署貨幣互換協定那你們的意見是不用就對了是不是我跟委員報告事實上金融研訓院我個人覺得他對這一塊他不是很了解他不懂所以他一個不懂的單位去參加去美國參加金融所以我們才會就是說這個好像他講起來的時候好像是非常嚴重的一件事"},{"start":4162.802,"end":4179.191,"text":"那就我們來講事實上反正你覺得金龍研訓所在美國跟美國資助所提的這個是沒有必要的啦沒有必要好我確認一下說因為感覺好像這個政府的研訓院跟這個我們的央行的這個不調說法好像有點完全不一樣我跟委員報告因為研訓院對這一塊他不了解"},{"start":4181.152,"end":4182.473,"text":"你覺得我們加入的可能性有多高啊?"},{"start":4196.566,"end":4215.683,"text":"這個我想我們要加入這個是外交部政府要決定的政府要去努力的對對政府要去努力的這個是你無能為力的事情所以我們要加入IMF的可能性很低這個我不敢說你要看外交部有多大能力就對了就這個看政府的一個情況我們收到接著這個"},{"start":4217.384,"end":4224.43,"text":"那你說現在美元的流通機制完備嘛,流通性無虞那請問如果發生戰爭的時候會產生大量礦匯潮到時候還有辦法維持嗎?對於這個問題啊,我們"},{"start":4235.18,"end":4257.147,"text":"我們是隨時都在準備所以我可以站在這裡跟委員報告請放心我們隨時都在準備隨時做好充足的準備就對了即便萬一不幸台海局勢惡化發生了這個所謂金龍研究院他們說的這種可能的一些兵推的情形發生我們也有萬全的準備就對了我們都隨時都有在準備"},{"start":4259.668,"end":4283.568,"text":"本席很佩服你的信心跟美國智庫研究的不一樣可能您了解的比較多啦比較專業啦好那延續院下回來的時候我們來請他來來跟他請教一下本席很支持央行做這個第七波這個這個信用管制就有關打房我甚至認為事實上呃陳如我們總裁所說的"},{"start":4284.028,"end":4301.963,"text":"這個就是因為有那個預期心理啊國人普遍有的預期心理覺得房價就是會一直一直的漲所以很多的資金都湧入到這個房地產這個市場裡頭所以我覺得我第一個充分支持你這個打房的這個政策或者說這個信用管制的這個"},{"start":4302.503,"end":4304.003,"text":"對於健全房地產的這個方案不是只有中央銀行"},{"start":4331.272,"end":4331.593,"text":"我們看看我們滾動式檢討"},{"start":4348.573,"end":4368.92,"text":"那現在有個問題就是說在這樣打房的過程中比如說以我自己的選區金門為例可能會遇到的問題就是說我也是支持打房我也是希望房地產不要一直這樣節節上漲這個普羅大眾都覺得買房子相當的辛苦大部分人都覺得買房子很辛苦這個房貸也過於沉重影響整個經濟的這個發展那像比如說以我們金門地區來講那有些像我們是"},{"start":4374.242,"end":4394.275,"text":"關光現在要以觀光為主我們現在努力開放要到來觀光什麼這一類的齁那我們也是鼓勵業者如果道路客來很多的時候我們的當地的這個旅館啊什麼就會不足我們也鼓勵台灣的業者到我們金門啊齁因為金門本地市場比較可能資金可能比較沒那麼充沛嘛人力業者可能人力比較沒那麼強我們也鼓勵台灣做得好的這個業者到金門來做相關的比如說投資旅館啊興建什麼相關的這個產業可以比如說"},{"start":4401.599,"end":4401.619,"text":"拜訪問"},{"start":4431.599,"end":4444.714,"text":"因為如果要請他們來蓋醫院啊蓋這個旅館啊也是會受到這樣相關的管制啊所以這個部分也會有這樣的情形請央行是不是想一下說這個部分針對比如說地區的發展需要這樣的建設的時候怎麼樣來協助我們這個離島地區要做這個產業的相關發展可以嗎"},{"start":4449.858,"end":4472.203,"text":"我想就是說委員在講的這個因為有很多的個案都是很所以這個我們會來跟我們的同仁來瞭解瞭解討論討論我覺得我們都會基於幫助的立場來解決問題好不好謝謝謝謝總裁好謝謝一貞委員接著我們請賴世保委員質詢"},{"start":4493.764,"end":4514.009,"text":"謝謝主席有請央行總裁楊總裁是請總裁我先請教今天題目主席排得很好這是第七波的信用管制針對打炒房"},{"start":4516.386,"end":4526.434,"text":"雖然你提出你說有些寬限什麼之類的這個所謂的寬限期把它排除掉但是呢我就請問你"},{"start":4527.918,"end":4549.051,"text":"外界都認為效果好像不怎麼樣沒有感覺沒有感覺你那個什麼叫金龍海嘯楊金龍的金龍阿大家會覺得說有沒有變成一個金色齁這個不怎麼樣覺得不怎麼樣沒想像中那麼可怕你要不要講一下所以你已經要講了再講一下"},{"start":4550.126,"end":4567.193,"text":"你的意思就是說力道不夠不夠正的意思沒有什麼黑黑的對啦沒有什麼黑黑的對我想我們我先講一句話啦其實就是超級儲蓄太多請問你超級儲蓄多少錢超級儲蓄"},{"start":4568.223,"end":4572.826,"text":"我們儲蓄就有幾兆 四兆 以前二點多到現在四兆 台灣的錢太多了 人家也沒有結構啦 你講一下"},{"start":4586.142,"end":4604.917,"text":"我想大部分這是一個概念的問題超額的儲蓄會反映在哪裡呢?超額的儲蓄會反映在我們經常帳順差經常帳順差裡面很大部分的就是我們的貿易帳"},{"start":4606.619,"end":4618.992,"text":"阿這個貿易帳阿大部分這個貿易帳這個是超額儲蓄都是貿易帳所造成的那貿易帳所造成的這些的錢阿大部分阿都是用外幣握油"},{"start":4620.455,"end":4642.549,"text":"大部分都是用外幣外流那所以呢我跟委員報告這些從外幣大部分都是外幣外流這個就是資金的外流我們如果說有順差的話呢就是資金外流那所以呢也不是說哇那你這些超額儲蓄呢都全部到那個不動產去不是這麼一回事"},{"start":4643.209,"end":4666.907,"text":"是他就是用所以我跟委員報告我們的受選內為什麼會在國外那個什麼投資我們的ETF我們的那個那個國內的那個信託這些的都是都是因為我們的這個貿易的順差我們貿易順差就是我有這個外幣啊那個我的時間有限你就"},{"start":4669.21,"end":4682.511,"text":"簡單回答我們讓大家聽得懂的所以我的意思現在有沒有效果啦效果出來沒有效果不會就說我今天下去就有效果還沒有出來嘛我們要慢慢的來評估慢慢的watch"},{"start":4683.148,"end":4683.609,"text":"我跟委員很誠心的跟您報告"},{"start":4701.272,"end":4717.562,"text":"就說事實上呢我們就說喔是這個預期心理非常強的時候呢他說非常強我們現在我們的第一步是什麼我們第一步當然我們不是說要讓他軟著陸沒有第一步是要讓他的這個預期心理要轉回來要轉回來慢慢的下來你剛剛說我誠懇你誠懇跟我講我也很誠懇跟你講"},{"start":4729.72,"end":4753.834,"text":"請問你,心目中總裁覺得要看到成效,多久可以看到成效,你第七波?三個月可以嗎?我很誠實的告訴委員。我也很誠實跟你講,三個月看不到,你都說這不好,三個月看不到效果,不然半年可以嗎?半年可以嗎?"},{"start":4755.361,"end":4767.838,"text":"再看看嘛,我們會持續的來密切的注意到比如說半年內這半年其實很長啦,我這樣半年我自己都不好意思了都看不到成交"},{"start":4769.279,"end":4795.18,"text":"如果半年齁,如果說從某些的方式來看齁,從某些的市場來看齁,半年也許是很太長。但是黃地產,我們的黃地產是比較特殊的。所以你看,我做球給你,半年剛剛好,你看到?半年看一個指標,看指標,就是交易量啦,平均這個價格等等的齁,還有,來來來,總裁,如果半年後,"},{"start":4796.221,"end":4822.252,"text":"我現在差不多,不怎麼樣?你會不會不排除第八波有沒有?我總覺得還是言之過早。還是言之過早。好,就是你的答案我替你把他簡單的小結啦。觀察半年以後再看看。這樣可以吧?我這樣講嗎?你接受吧?"},{"start":4825.493,"end":4837.179,"text":"反正我們持續觀察我講觀察半年啦不必要是10點啦也不必要用10點來那個我們持續觀察啦我都講半年好來這個講到這個我都替你難過你今年什麼都沒拿到A啦"},{"start":4848.1,"end":4875.935,"text":"你現在沒退到A啦你已經四個A了你第五個A了大家想我無勒結果結果來來來等一下找了老半天啦我看你就是習慣啊楊金龍總裁的做得不錯的勒結果勒人家給你分析就是說因為你跟全世界的趨勢啊背道而行人家在人家在講或者不生你生了啊人家在講你也不講"},{"start":4877.296,"end":4894.558,"text":"然後你還被我們被公佈為匯率操縱國的觀察名單簡單來講就是在你的主政底下金中央銀行的政策不夠自由化或者是自由化不夠透明或者是"},{"start":4895.54,"end":4898.704,"text":"我們會變成觀察名單主要的是兩項"},{"start":4909.008,"end":4935.136,"text":"主要是兩項,可是跟外市場沒有關係。所以呢,因為剛剛你這這麼講就說沒有透明啊什麼的啊。你看看我們很透明啊,我們在市場我們賣的,我們很透明我們都報告啦。但是呢我們的觀察名單主要的是兩項,包括我剛剛跟委員報告的就是說我們經常...外貿出超太多啦!阿佔那個GDP比例太高啦!我知道啦!"},{"start":4938.177,"end":4955.789,"text":"所以你不能就說是我們外匯市場的干預什麼的阿老都算了阿老都算了不對阿請問你請問你你沒有那個A的原因在哪裡阿我跟委員報告第一個我們中央銀行當然是我要有"},{"start":4957.118,"end":4977.148,"text":"有那個持續進步的空間這是第一點第二點呢我也是在猜啦我也是在猜我也是覺得很納悶可能是因為我們去年因為他今年的評比是以去年做基本的那個分析的狀況去年呢我們的通膨是2.49"},{"start":4980.689,"end":4981.35,"text":"通膨太高?通膨太高?"},{"start":4998.664,"end":5026.894,"text":"經濟成長率這是每年的啦每年波動啦齁不過呢我也跟委員報告一個數據我們如果說不要用這個用這個連增率的一個方式來比較的話如果說我們是用2020年就是我們COVID-19之前那一年做基期然後呢來看看我們的到2023年的經濟的成長率因為我時間有限了那個總裁你講這麼多是不是"},{"start":5028.578,"end":5032.115,"text":"隱約我感覺到你的無奈本"},{"start":5032.867,"end":5036.468,"text":"我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我"},{"start":5058.058,"end":5065.923,"text":"還是不服氣的接受?還是寒怨接受?寒恨接受?我現在信用可以嗎?我們虛心檢討。寒怨接受。雲林繼續努力。你說不對喔?"},{"start":5075.708,"end":5078.111,"text":"我要在這裡來跟委員報告 我要佩服我們彭總裁 我佩服他"},{"start":5097.21,"end":5106.235,"text":"最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題 最後一個問題"},{"start":5124.963,"end":5147.345,"text":"我因為我告訴委員就是說整個冰天這是整個政府的一個機制對不對但是我要跟委員報告就中央銀行的部分我們隨時隨時的都是在準備所以在這裡我相信就是說在這一個部分我們都是"},{"start":5147.805,"end":5155.288,"text":"我跟委員報告就是說在中央銀行的這個部分因為政府是整體的你站在中央銀行角度那我站在小老百姓的角度你再告訴我們一句話"},{"start":5178.395,"end":5183.6,"text":"你告訴我們老百姓,萬一打造了老百姓資產怎麼保護最好?這個我沒辦法跟各位報告。這幫他們栽換美金啊!"},{"start":5189.517,"end":5192.178,"text":"我只能跟委員報告我們央行都有做妥適的準備我不敢置評這是委員的看法"},{"start":5215.663,"end":5218.445,"text":"謝謝賴司寶委員接著請郭國文委員主席有請楊金龍總裁請總裁"},{"start":5246.451,"end":5271.482,"text":"各位委員長總裁好總裁沒有A、B加也不錯啦日本跟韓國也都B加嘛我們雖然沒有拿到A但也沒有比人家差那就像這個在討論到這個外匯匯率的部分本席今天就發現美國最近都是在降息我們即使本上最近這幾次的央行禮監事會升息又升準那為什麼我們還會貶值"},{"start":5275.003,"end":5280.869,"text":"然後今天呢我看到一個新聞就說我們居然花了90.6億的美金想要逐貶就貶了結果還是貶是貶了5.29%是那主要難道就這麼單純因為整個外資會出250億美金就會造成這樣的結果嗎"},{"start":5292.641,"end":5307.524,"text":"我跟委員報告因為我們報告也有講到好像沒有很那麼detail事實上我們的股市表現得非常好我們股市從今年初到現在我們股市是在全球來講好像我們是成長的"},{"start":5315.407,"end":5315.888,"text":"外資操作靈活"},{"start":5330.742,"end":5360.742,"text":"議員．"},{"start":5361.062,"end":5374.125,"text":"本席呢就您底頭寫的報告當中也是您的報告你看喔我特別標紅字的部分也就是整個土建融的部分呢這個成長幅度從2018年2018年剛好是從你那個趨勢圖來說是相對是低點的到2024年就是啪到37.5%37.5%當中呢很清楚的看到你看土建融的部分那就看得出來建商在拼命推案嘛"},{"start":5386.848,"end":5405.627,"text":"所謂的犯狂比例成長都是成長大約六成土建榮的部分大概就高達八成六這是第一個狀況當然就正因為這樣的情況底下你會出手進行第七波的這個信用管制剛開始你的壓力很大但是最近10月10日的時候我們在見到總統在國慶演說的時候強調"},{"start":5407.529,"end":5427.085,"text":"他不會迴避這個高房價強調要增加這個打房的這個效率即便得罪特定的團體也在所不惜那個這樣的情況等於賴總統對你的整個第七波的管制進行了背書那個總裁你不要講一下你心得怎麼樣啊感受怎麼樣有沒有覺得很溫暖"},{"start":5428.285,"end":5452.377,"text":"是啊,我覺得就是說在這一塊總統在國慶的一個的演說裡面也有提到這一點應該是第一次國慶還會講到這個議題這個是很顯然的他對於這個黃地產的市場他也非常的非常的關心是啊才會在國慶裡面提到這件事情"},{"start":5452.797,"end":5469.462,"text":"所以在總統的心目中你應該是得A了啦不只是B獎啦謝謝謝謝謝謝總裁所以不要在乎那個啦重點是接下來這個信用管制有沒有效果嘛因為之前我就看過一篇報導說真正患無的"},{"start":5470.462,"end":5489.435,"text":"就有一個銀行主管移到他經驗的這一個理解大概不到5%但是我就就教於您你當初呢因為有一些壓力央行也特別設置專線有大概有15線後來變成14線到底在這一個半月當中民眾陳情投訴銀行的案例到底有幾件"},{"start":5490.929,"end":5508.261,"text":"我想呢...你們統計的啊?真的你們開放的啊?是是是,我想呢,也是主要的還是換屋跟計程這兩個。主要的還是這兩個。就反映最多是這兩個?那案件大概有多少個?我們的案件齁...你們累積多少個?應該有計算吧?來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來來"},{"start":5511.623,"end":5530.036,"text":"各位報告,就是說在過去民眾打電話來申請．對,一個半月之間你們設立專線之後一天的話大概都會將近一百多通一百多通?那這個幾個半月當中累積了大概幾通?大概有兩千、一千、一千多件一千多件?那一千多件是不是受到銀行的刁難?"},{"start":5531.441,"end":5548.257,"text":"因為有些都是有事來問一些個案的問題還有一些是規定的內容問規定的內容他講了多少層數就多半都是諮詢沒有說有受殺無辜的現象嘛民眾曾經的部分有些是說銀行的這個申請的時候有刁難還是有嘛"},{"start":5553.021,"end":5571.143,"text":"那這一部分我們都會有沒有說哪一家銀行沒有他們通常是我們都有轉給各銀行因為各銀行的部分都在排隊他們的確說是因為有量的用塞的部分所以還是在排隊嘛但是後來大概很多的個案大概都排除掉了"},{"start":5571.883,"end":5589.43,"text":"對,都有排除掉,所以都有一一化解。接下來我就請總裁。總裁,如果是這樣子的話,聽起來比例沒有相當的高,但是我們必須說,你現在整個5.8個月當中,你剛剛算了,"},{"start":5589.67,"end":5615.956,"text":"大概增加的5.3兆所以等於是一年增加大概一兆這個集中率資本集中率的部分加上有幾個問題你要小心第一個親安貸的部分新親安的部分他的貸款是到2026年的7月將近還有兩年的時間兩年才會結束第二個我在提醒總裁一個數字內政部就我理解的部分"},{"start":5616.976,"end":5633.046,"text":"預售屋的部分啊大概有9萬戶9萬戶喔而且還不包括今年的檔期今年的檔期有329928加起來往年的案量大概金額大概一兆今年是兩兆這是"},{"start":5633.926,"end":5661.112,"text":"這是第二個問題所以這樣子加起來的話我在擔心在你如果以過去的這個親安貸一年大概是貸款大概6000億6000億兩年就有1.2帳如果內政部那個預售屋所有的土建容出估那還不是親安貸土建容出估的話一戶你跟他代表大概1000萬的話"},{"start":5663.887,"end":5689.92,"text":"很高欸那9000億欸所以就夾起來這兩個plus起來又是兩兆以上欸所以說這個會不會導致於你即便第七波的信用管制之後37.5的資本集中度還往上偏衝高或者是第二個問題是72條之二的30%水位滿位沒有辦法再貸有沒有可能這種兩種現象這兩種現象的時候你怎麼辦"},{"start":5691.721,"end":5695.663,"text":"對我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我我"},{"start":5713.872,"end":5726.275,"text":"我們現在的程序呢?現在就是說剛剛委員講到就是說因為他滿水位的嘛滿水位的啊那現在就是說資源有限資源有限那要如何的來分配"},{"start":5727.338,"end":5730.461,"text":"總裁我沒有懷疑你第七波的破例跟效應我只是會讓你說未來的部分怎麼看"},{"start":5744.393,"end":5759.495,"text":"這三個還等著等著你你還有挑戰還有三個狀況新青安的話我跟委員報告新青安應該如果說以我們現在資源雖然有限我個人覺得他應該是可以足以來應勿他"},{"start":5761.057,"end":5779.899,"text":"但是現在就是說建築的這個部分委員倒是講的也沒有錯因為這個建築融資的這個部分有的據我了解這是我從報章雜誌那邊看到的他說因為銀行老早就有已經有給他那個什麼額度"},{"start":5781.04,"end":5800.156,"text":"已經有額度那額度的意思就是說他是已經有簽約了已經有簽約有簽約你現在已經水位都已經2829了那到時候他怎麼拿出來所以呢也就是說這個就是說看那個各個銀行要如何去分配他的這個資源難道要開後門嗎"},{"start":5802.965,"end":5805.746,"text":"總裁我真的慎重提醒你事情恐怕還不是那麼單純"},{"start":5818.971,"end":5834.423,"text":"一個是清安貸一個是按量增加然後再加上那個過往整個金額的換算起來我真的很擔心那個37.5還會往上攀升你要意識到這個問題即便你第七波非常的強而有力但是第二個問題有搞不好會滿水位的問題滿水問題這兩個問題都會同時存在"},{"start":5838.366,"end":5862.42,"text":"那後續的部分你剛剛講到建商的部分建商的部分現在有些建商就出現了大幹趕又大滯銷的部分所以這種現象會變成建商負債過高滯銷率這個過高那以至於這個建商接下來他用這種方式說以後我可獲得的這個利益可能可以期待創造一些本夢比所以以至於他反而他股價也變高"},{"start":5863.32,"end":5864.021,"text":"議員的督促是相當有幫助的"},{"start":5890.698,"end":5909.793,"text":"給主管機關各個部會都有很好的一個建議這個我想我們都會來好好的來注意他所以本席最後提醒您一句話這是第七波我想這三個月是一個很密切的觀察期我希望能夠形成一個真正有效的政策出來謝謝總裁謝謝委員謝謝郭國文委員"},{"start":5933.334,"end":5936.458,"text":"接著我們請代會員委員質詢好謝謝主席我們請那個請我們請楊總裁有請楊總裁"},{"start":5949.203,"end":5967.651,"text":"總裁早安我想從去年7月開始我們因應近年全球的通膨還有就是黃價的一個上揚還有升息的一個趨勢所以我們推出了這個所謂的新清安這個貸款的精進方案可是這個精進的措施裡頭我們從左邊這張圖裡頭來看就是"},{"start":5970.643,"end":5992.982,"text":"以前是800現在把它調高為貸款的額度是1000萬那公股銀行辦碼利息的補貼上面那現在是加碼到1.5那貸款年限我們也是從30年把它調升到40年那寬限期是從3年到5年那實施的日期我們就是從2026到7月31號"},{"start":5996.084,"end":6006.859,"text":"那其實應該是說截止的日期啦齁那在這裡要特別就是說跟總裁那個請教一下你知道新青安也可以團購嗎?"},{"start":6009.359,"end":6013.141,"text":"這個情形你聽過嗎?這個團購大家一起買,然後一起其實是在炒房"},{"start":6033.13,"end":6051.903,"text":"這個情形非常的嚴重其實我們從銀行的這個貸款的資料裡頭可以很明顯的看得出來所以就是說在這裡也是特別特別就是以臺北市今年第一期的各區的那個房價跟去年第一期相比的話它成長了5到8"},{"start":6054.525,"end":6075.977,"text":"五到八趴可是我們就非常明顯的看到他房價是被推高了是好那我來講我們台南台南的帳戶更明顯了這個我如果講說北部人到我們南部來炒房的話我從一些數據裡頭一些模型裡頭我們可以很簡單的去看到確實是這個樣子"},{"start":6077.458,"end":6096.14,"text":"我們南部在這一波裡頭從去年七月到現在房價越來越高本來還有800萬的房子再比較就是說我們偏山區的還是偏海邊的可是現在顯然所有的房價都上來了都是1200萬"},{"start":6098.222,"end":6114.258,"text":"所以在這裡我特別就是說跟總裁做一個請教你的第七波選擇性信用的一個管制這六大的措施一次來執行它的時候你覺得這個最大的一個動作的"},{"start":6115.691,"end":6139.419,"text":"打這個草房那你個人認為認為就是說有沒有效我看你剛才跟幾位委員的探討你還想這是要評估嗎我對是啦就是說委員那個指教的對啦就是說我們就是說會做這樣的一個我們當然我們報告裡面也有講的講的有一些的說明"},{"start":6140.679,"end":6159.647,"text":"至於就是說會不會有成效那這個當然就是說在短時間我們看不出不過我要跟委員報告的就是說就是說在這個預期心理那麼強烈的情況之下第一個我們第一個就是必須要把這個預期心理要把它扭轉回來"},{"start":6160.948,"end":6186.83,"text":"對這個是最重要如果說你不扭轉回來的時候呢那那這樣的話呢後面的成效所謂的成效就很難去說了很難去評估了所以呢也就是說第一波是不是能夠讓他冷卻把這個把這個的這個房地產的一個的市場呢他的預期心把它擴大下來這個是最重要的然後呢如果慢慢的能夠下來的話那是最好"},{"start":6187.43,"end":6205.722,"text":"當然,我們也希望是這樣子那董事長我再請教你以我們國家的一個金融市場這個就是金融市場的一個規模您認為有多少資金是在這一次這一次的那個信用性管制的措施裡頭它受到限制的有多少錢?您認為呢?"},{"start":6213.329,"end":6227.702,"text":"這個我們可以看出就是說我們那個集中度那個集中度如果說現在就是說集中度是在37.5左右嘛那看看呢剛剛因為前面的那個郭委員也有談到就是說這個37.5是不是他會下來"},{"start":6230.885,"end":6253.037,"text":"因為他會覺得就是說新青安已經是現在新青安一年有6000億還有就是說建築的融資那這個呢恐怕你要下來還有包括你就30%的這個呢要讓他下來恐怕不太容易我個人也是覺得就是說在短期間呢不太容易但是呢他會慢慢的調整"},{"start":6255.288,"end":6281.32,"text":"郭委員之前的那個質詢是跟你提示的非常好那你也認為他會就是定在這個30%他就下不來了是是是30%就下不來了會有一段時間那你覺得就是你剛也有特別講到那就是說不明確你說是不是三個月三個月我們會看到了就是抑制房價的效果小小的效果還是說要到明年底"},{"start":6283.407,"end":6306.197,"text":"我剛剛也是在講就是說看看那個整個的那個預期的心理是不是能夠扭轉在這一段短時間之內是不是能夠扭轉回來扭轉回來的以後呢還可能就慢慢的會有看到房價會下跌的一個現象軟著陸那至於就是說是要幾個月這個我不敢我不敢在這邊做預測"},{"start":6307.523,"end":6315.952,"text":"那你的義股呢?你看你這個金融海嘯已經把就是買那個我們的9月份的那個買方就是明顯的非常非常明顯就是下降了那這個就是說應該就是說是已經有那個就是說是讓市場齁它的一個熱度呢能夠把它把它冷卸下來啦"},{"start":6327.944,"end":6345.73,"text":"所以所以你也認為就是說央行要共同的就是說來負責管理這個房市然後不管財政部還是還有內政部還有金管會對所以所以目前起碼是走在一個對的路上是我們希望你就朝這個方向走啦對啦"},{"start":6348.453,"end":6360.73,"text":"謝謝我想總裁就是說這三類的人群其實他也得到了一個很大的一個豁免解決的方案就是說不管是繼承還是第一次換屋需求就是確決還是已經簽約了"},{"start":6362.672,"end":6363.212,"text":"所以在這裡再請教"},{"start":6382.657,"end":6395.528,"text":"就是你覺得這個打炒房的力道,可不可以更大?我想我們還是就是密切的注意它啦,滾動式的檢討啦"},{"start":6398.95,"end":6423.64,"text":"那至於就是說力道是不是可以再更大我想我們檢討之後我們會滾動式檢討再做決定我在這裡再提醒你就是說其實如果我們從2022年的第二季再下一頁到2023的第一季其實我們從這張圖裡頭我們有看到了就是說你的第四波到第五波到第六波其實在第五波這一個"},{"start":6424.4,"end":6425.36,"text":"那你個人的看法怎麼樣?"},{"start":6445.834,"end":6473.351,"text":"我覺得應該也可以應該也就是說是有幾個因素新清安可能也是讓這個需求增加的一個因素之一那時候的經濟非常好又復甦上來那股市也表現得非常好我想這些都是因素那是不是好啦那你顯然就是說這樣子的一個看法就是"},{"start":6474.471,"end":6493.682,"text":"我們都認為總裁的看法事實上是非常精準可是有一點趨於保守就像美國現在已經進入降息的一個循環那央行的一個決策其實是大家關心的在這個關心的過程裡頭其實我們也覺得央行是兩難像美國啟動了降息的循環你要不要跟"},{"start":6494.702,"end":6509.991,"text":"你要不要跟...我們所以這個委員問得很好就是說我們也是在密切的注意他因為有些時候美國是大經濟體那台灣的情況又跟美國的情況有一點不大一樣"},{"start":6512.173,"end":6527.969,"text":"所以我們是不是一定要跟美國有些時候是第一個可能是不一定第二個我們的利率的政策也是要受到國際因素的影響"},{"start":6529.73,"end":6545.596,"text":"所以這個就是說必須要去權衡他所以我一直在講說你會兩難嘛你要配合國際的情勢的變化那這12月這個審慎你要評估你這個策略你看喔你這個在報告裡頭你寫得特別的清楚喔"},{"start":6546.036,"end":6551.619,"text":"你認為說從113年的7月29號那就是說對美金的那個匯率那我們從32.87那已經升值到32.168所以你報告裡頭寫得很清楚所以我們就一直在想說好那"},{"start":6565.345,"end":6582.971,"text":"你一直在強調就在強調說你一估啦在這裡要跟總裁做一個在探討就是說這個現有的數據其實你是難以反映民眾的體感的通貨就是說每一個人都感受得到就是說"},{"start":6585.155,"end":6597.034,"text":"這個通貨膨脹非常的嚴重可是我們顯然在央行的很多的政策裡頭感受不出來你是不是要考慮繼續的一個升息才能解決呢?"},{"start":6599.173,"end":6615.243,"text":"我跟委員報告,委員問的這個問題是非常好就是說低所得者還有一般普羅大眾跟中央銀行他的衡量的CPI的情況不太一樣所以呢也就是說委員呢中央銀行所有"},{"start":6615.723,"end":6637.441,"text":"全球的中央銀行它的衡量的就像我們中澳臺灣的中央銀行一樣的都是用2%的這個齁那是全部的項目放進去的那委員現在所強調的比較像說17項的那些民生用品還有就是說每個月至少購買一次的那些都說還是很高我講的就是現況的通貨嘛所以就是說針對"},{"start":6640.703,"end":6662.72,"text":"是不是總裁針對近5年的消費者的物價指數的上漲跟近年的破幣的一個政策的影響我希望在一個業內你提出一個報告、一個訪詢好不好好、謝謝光是我們這些退休的老人啦他就是說你這個升息才能照顧到我們這些存款組好不好好、謝謝謝謝、謝謝大會委員子詢接著我們請李燕秀委員詢"},{"start":6681.595,"end":6682.575,"text":"謝謝我可不可以請楊總裁請楊總裁"},{"start":6691.438,"end":6719.036,"text":"總裁早安我想大家都非常關心打炒房後續的成效的狀況從今年八月份開始找我們銀行業者公股銀行喝咖啡之後還有包括在九月份我們就祭出第七波的這個相關的打房政策到後續的打房政策宣布之後我們又陸陸續續提出了相關的補救措施我要請問總裁你覺得這樣一路走下來"},{"start":6721.999,"end":6738.558,"text":"當時你在8月中提到說三個政策我們要達到目標包括銀行必須要華麗的轉身包括必須要給投資客投機客一個教訓對不對那另外就是我們目標就是讓房市擴大下來這三個政策目標有達到了嗎"},{"start":6741.9,"end":6760.76,"text":"我想我們給銀行的這個報的說服我們是給他就是說他給我們的資料然後．沒關係總裁因為我們只有10分鐘你就直接告訴我你當時設定了三個目標現在你自己一定有評估有沒有達到他的效果"},{"start":6762.245,"end":6784.626,"text":"到目前為止我覺得我們還是慢慢的觀察他我們還是觀察他我也不敢說我們現在下去的三個目標都達到往朝正向達到目標但是目前我總覺得好像有一點向前的樣子往前走有正向的一個發展那你一定有預估"},{"start":6786.178,"end":6796.351,"text":"什麼時候大概會要做這個我很難去預估說如果沒有達到你這三個目標後續我們有沒有可能再進行第八波的打房政策"},{"start":6797.931,"end":6820.306,"text":"我想我們...你後面一定還有...沒有達到你的目標,你後面一定還會想...我想是這樣子啦,我還是要強調啦就是說這個房地產的健全方案不是只有中央銀行啦當然是,但是因為每個部會都有它的政策工具但是在你央行的政策工具就是基礎你的手段我們滾動式的檢討"},{"start":6822.988,"end":6833.2,"text":"總裁到底後續如果沒有達到你的政策目標你會不會不排除進行第八波的信用管制有沒有可能我們滾動是檢討"},{"start":6835.458,"end":6861.581,"text":"你會滾動式的檢討．有可能好那在這個過程當中就是說你滾動式的檢討反正你有的政策工具都有可能寄出來包括不排除第八波的打房政策嘛這也是在你的選項之一嘛有可能嘛所以你才會說滾動式的檢討好那總裁在這個過程當中有沒有哪些是你覺得處理得不夠細膩或不夠周全的地方因為你現在後面才在做補救措施嘛嗯"},{"start":6862.97,"end":6890.245,"text":"我們的補救措施就是說這個換房子的還有繼承的那換房子的就是說在前一波就我們也就有這樣的一個處理的協助的措施那繼承的是這一次因為上一次是沒有對有房子要貸款的那個我們沒有所以總裁如果這麼說的話就是說當時我們在祭出第七波的打房政策的時候有一些例外我們沒有把它思考的更完整"},{"start":6891.599,"end":6920.488,"text":"對不對後面才會有補救措施沒有不是我們呢事實上呢繼承的這個呢是因為因為我們要有低就是說有房子然後呢要借錢的這個我們這一次才才那個啊所以以前的那個呢就繼承的就沒有就沒有我們就沒有提出來那但是呢換房子的這個呢上一次我們就協組措施就有了所以我們這一次呢才會再提出這個協組措施出來"},{"start":6921.308,"end":6935.45,"text":"就是說這整個打房的過程當中我也從媒體上看到總統跟院長也非常關心這件事情從媒體上看到所以到底總統跟院長有沒有找過你開會"},{"start":6942.172,"end":6964.611,"text":"我記得就是說行政院對於新青蘭的這個問題沒有就是針對你第七波你宣布沒有沒有從來都打過電話給你沒有我跟委員報告就是說我們的第七波都是我們實施了以後呢我們的新聞稿馬上送給"},{"start":6966.035,"end":6978.819,"text":"中文舞你在宣布你在去找銀行喝咖啡之後8月30號卓院長說他找你來開會所以院長沒有找你開過會沒有我我我找過你通過電話我們我們我們中菜他"},{"start":6987.261,"end":7011.089,"text":"沒有就是說我跟委員報告所以有些時候我們如果不講清楚的時候好像是說你就對我問的問題講清楚就好了就是說我從媒體上看到因為你那時候找銀行來喝咖啡要提出現代令的時候我從媒體上有看到卓院長說要找你來喝咖啡談一談現代令的問題他沒有說是要喝咖啡啦有沒有找過你"},{"start":7013.07,"end":7016.793,"text":"有沒有找過你談這個政?找過你幾次?找過你幾次?一次找過你一次喔?找你開會?還是通電話?總統有沒有打過電話給你?只有談一談,不到五分鐘談過一次,那總統有沒有打過電話給你?沒有總統也很關心這件事情"},{"start":7037.969,"end":7050.26,"text":"總統也提到說這個事情要好好的了解一下他也非常的關心總統有沒有打過電話給你?也沒有?沒有,他沒有打電話給我"},{"start":7051.144,"end":7060.849,"text":"完全沒有就這個就這個就這個就是說我們道德稅務的這個部分可是總統在媒體上講說這個央行在處理這件事情的時候是過當了所以他沒有打過電話給你也沒有透過人打電話給你他沒有講說我從9月1號賴清德總統說他沒有講說是中央銀行做這件事情是過當吧我從媒體上看到我好像沒有看到這個報導"},{"start":7078.937,"end":7079.137,"text":"你認不認為央行是獨立機關?"},{"start":7093.899,"end":7111.988,"text":"我想呢央行是一個政府的一個制度裡面的但是呢我們的貨幣政策你們到底算不算獨立機關你們算不算獨立機關你認為應不應該有這個獨立性我是覺得就是說中央銀行也是政府的體制的一部分總裁我只問你"},{"start":7112.888,"end":7113.389,"text":"中央銀行應該有自己的獨立性"},{"start":7129.143,"end":7156.313,"text":"我只是說我們有審查跟核定的這個權限那你如果說我其實我一直一路以來我都非常的敬重你我也非常的尊敬你即便最近這個有幾個國際媒體把你評為B家我都認為你在我心目中仍舊是5A的總裁因為你在做很多事情的果決判斷我覺得是很明朗清楚的當然央行應該有自己的獨立性全世界的"},{"start":7156.693,"end":7183.811,"text":"自己國家的中央銀行其實都有它的獨立性透明度跟可救責性這個是央行應該要有的特性它都不應該有太多的外力的介入我不知道你有沒有讀到包括風傳媒跟聯合報在近期都有一篇報導提到就是說如果彭淮南在周永泰敢把手伸進央行或者是聯合報的標題社論也提到說干預央行兩蔣不敢周永泰敢"},{"start":7184.651,"end":7201.167,"text":"你自己有沒有看過這兩篇報告?你有讀到這兩篇報告嗎?有看到吧?跟你有關的你應該有看到吧?你有看到齁?所以看到這兩篇報告齁,是我杞人憂天呢?還是你央行其實心裡也有很多的苦?"},{"start":7204.372,"end":7220.286,"text":"完全沒有苦我剛剛還是有跟委員報告就是說中央銀行的一個貨幣信用跟外匯政策這個是由中央銀行的理事我們的委員會來審核總裁沒關係我問你一句話媒體風傳媒評論說彭淮南在"},{"start":7227.014,"end":7235.753,"text":"中台感嗎?言下之意就是因為是你所以中台感打電話給你你看到這篇報道你心裡有什麼感受?"},{"start":7238.217,"end":7256.905,"text":"我想有些時候媒體他在對一個事件的一個評論有些時候他也沒有對整個的情況是不是就是說很真正的去知道他只是說也是應該也就是說從旁邊來看做這樣的一個評論"},{"start":7260.487,"end":7281.93,"text":"那至於就是說他是不是很準確我過去從來沒有看到媒體用下這麼大的標去批判一個央行的總裁我們過去這麼多幾位總裁一路走下來我從來也很少看到總統會去直接去提說我要找總裁來談一談聊一聊這個政策過檔直接"},{"start":7282.791,"end":7311.354,"text":"打臉：他沒有說我們的政策報告：我們從媒體上看到的是這件事情你我都同意央行在做很多決策的時候應該要有他的獨立性要有你們的專業性如果你認為央行應該有自己的獨立性的話未來如果有其他的政治干預我私底下請問你總裁會不會願意用自己的去留去捍衛中央銀行這塊金字招牌因為央行應該要有自己的獨立性嘛"},{"start":7312.565,"end":7320.929,"text":"我想我跟委員報告就是說從以前到現在我總覺得...你以前有聽過彭淮南接到過哪些人的電話總統或誰的電話說這個政策直接在媒體上說這個政策過當我要找他來喝咖啡我要找他來了解這個政策不行"},{"start":7335.558,"end":7347.711,"text":"我還是要跟委員報告就是說媒體他是在旁邊看他的一個所以呢也就是說對實際的情況也不是說百分之百是完全正確的啦"},{"start":7348.972,"end":7375.293,"text":"所以我再問我再請我總裁你一直剛沒有回到最後一個我不想佔用別人的時間就是說央行的獨立性是很重要因為他非常你們非常的專業應該不要受到太多政治外力的干擾去做很多的決策我講這句話你同意嘛對不對如果有太多的政治干預去干預到央行的決策總裁你會不會用自己的去留去捍衛中央銀行這塊獨立性的招牌"},{"start":7380.039,"end":7396.806,"text":"所以如果受到政治力太多的介入,你會不會用你的去留來捍衛央行獨立性的招牌?"},{"start":7399.947,"end":7402.828,"text":"謝謝燕秀,接著請李坤城委員發言"},{"start":7435.646,"end":7438.649,"text":"好謝謝主席我們請楊總裁請楊總裁"},{"start":7448.947,"end":7469.821,"text":"總裁辛苦了常常看到你就是會到各個委員的辦公室去做溝通、去做協調這相當的好啦不過你被評為B家總裁其實我是為你打抱不平啦我認為你還是屬於A級的總裁我舉兩點啦第一個就是說在今年3月的時候"},{"start":7476.454,"end":7503.49,"text":"這個在外界都無預警的情況之下央行升息半碼但是那時候升息半碼呢是要這個意志通膨啦那所以說那時候總裁的說法是說Supply但是呢決定是合理這主要是為了意志國內通膨的預期的心理這是在3月份那在6月份的時候呢這個央行是升準不升息然後呢這個總裁那時候說法就是說呢"},{"start":7504.623,"end":7530.636,"text":"這次最主要是給市場的訊息這次的重點在於房地產不在於通膨那光是這兩點這個3月跟6月份這個央行的決定一個是抑制通膨那另外一個就是給市場訊息就開始要打炒房了我認為這央行都有動足機先那請教一下這個現在是10月份了"},{"start":7531.107,"end":7535.624,"text":"那回過頭再來看三月份跟六月份你的決定你認為有沒有達到效果了?"},{"start":7538.866,"end":7561.104,"text":"如果說就通膨來講的話呢我們的通膨確實是慢慢在下來這個是我們的預測跟國際的預測大概都是這樣我們通膨慢慢在下來了這是第一個那第二個就是說我們在6月份的時候選擇性信用管制出去然後為什麼在第9月份的時候呢再出去"},{"start":7562.125,"end":7582.323,"text":"那6月份的時候呢我們那個時候的那個對於這個房地產呢我們那個時候所掌握的資訊不夠充分不夠充分所以呢也就是說那個力道呢就比較輕一點我們是在在6月因為在因為我們的這個報告裡面我們有講到就是說"},{"start":7584.605,"end":7603.917,"text":"六月的六就是第二季的那個房地產的那個貸放的情況我們我們裡面有有有說明吼那個是六月份的資料那六月份的資料要到什麼時候我們才掌握到我們要到八月份九月份的時候才能拿得到所以呢覺得就是說"},{"start":7605.459,"end":7629.039,"text":"這個第一副就是說有房子然後呢又要申請第一副的還有就是說第二副的他的人數增加的非常快金額也增加的非常快所以呢也就是說我們第6就是說6月份那一波呢是比較輕那為什麼就連續的到9月份的時候我們再出手是因為我們那個時候呢我們的資訊呢還沒有掌握到"},{"start":7629.659,"end":7631.761,"text":"我看這個第七波的這個選擇性信用管制媒體的標題大部分就是說比如說央行5G"},{"start":7650.056,"end":7667.252,"text":"謀要重拳打草房然後呢楊金龍說要給這個投資客一個lesson要給一個教訓這個也是藉這個機會告訴社會大眾房市呢必須cool down這個當然就是當lesson大家就解釋成說就是要讓投資客學習"},{"start":7669.174,"end":7690.152,"text":"當然講重一點就是教訓那也就是像剛剛這個總裁所提到說你是不是有看到了什麼樣的訊息就是說現在台灣的情況是不是有接近到這個2000在這個1990年代的日本資產泡沫還有2007年到2008年美國的次代風暴的這種情況"},{"start":7691.656,"end":7692.957,"text":"就像報告上說的我們這個全體銀行不動產的貸款的總"},{"start":7721.316,"end":7743.312,"text":"這個比例高達37.5%了嘛所以比起2009年10月的歷史高點37.9%已經相當的接近了然後銀行信用資源向不動產部門傾斜的情況還更嚴重所以你是看到這個情況所以在第七波的這個選擇性信用管制的時候用重拳來打炒房"},{"start":7744.181,"end":7770.236,"text":"委員你剛剛講到這個的時候我想我也趁這個機會來解釋一下當時我用這個Lesson就是說我沒辦法剛剛委員就解釋替我解釋得非常好你說要給他們上一課事實上我就是當時這個Lesson我沒有就是說我要教訓他但是有這個效果有教訓的效果"},{"start":7771.497,"end":7771.937,"text":"但是有達到這個效果了啦?"},{"start":7801.168,"end":7805.699,"text":"我也是希望是這樣子但是我們也不是說真的是要教訓他啦"},{"start":7806.857,"end":7832.351,"text":"再請教一下總裁我看有很多委員有很關心就是說我們在九月份的時候你有第七波會不會在12月的時候會不會有這個第八波的這個選擇性信用管制那當然我認為會有一些指標那我想請教一下這個總裁的指標來決定說你看到的什麼樣的情況會有什麼樣的改善的情況或是什麼情況會更嚴重你覺得說要不要再進行下一波的這個信用管制"},{"start":7834.967,"end":7856.714,"text":"我覺得委員三個指標這三個指標我們可以參考房價是否有修正不動產房款的集中度不動產的貸款金額這些都是我們可以來觀察的一個指標那還有沒有什麼其他指標大體上是大概是這樣子大體上是這樣子所以說就是看說這三個指標"},{"start":7859.415,"end":7881.457,"text":"有沒有下降來決定說是不是要進行第八波的這個信用管制最主要的就中央銀行來看的話我們第一個就是說不動產的換款的集中度是有沒有下降這是我們比較那有沒有一個數字比如說現在37.5大概下降到什麼樣的一個程度你會覺得說比較安心這個是合理不合理我們再來大概到哪一個"},{"start":7882.037,"end":7883.379,"text":"我們因為現在目前齁誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒誒"},{"start":7899.155,"end":7900.296,"text":"謝謝委員提醒我們這三個指標不過賴總統是相當肯定我認為在國慶的談話他有特別提到說"},{"start":7921.227,"end":7921.968,"text":"總裁有沒有覺得心暖暖的?"},{"start":7936.426,"end":7960.777,"text":"我也非常感謝就是說院裡面跟總務府給我們的支持這是我們的那現在就是說上次你來找我的時候我也提到就是說有一些這個重群下去之後當然有一些無辜受害者後來你們也是做了一些調整但是還是有一些情況發生就是說現在是新清安他們去貸款"},{"start":7961.698,"end":7966.736,"text":"貸款的這個陳述比預期的或是說比之前在你們這個信用管制之前在談的"},{"start":7968.067,"end":7993.22,"text":"本來談好了但是後來的代給他們的成數降低了或是說支配款要準備的成數也提高了這個有沒有就像說你們有這一個電話打過來這樣子抱怨反應的有沒有我想應該也會有啦不過我跟委員報告了所以我們這一次的協組措施把那些已經訂約的包括就是中古屋或是那個預售屋的"},{"start":7996.061,"end":8021.184,"text":"他一戶二戶的那個我們都有在排除條款裡面但是三戶以上的話我們就無能為力有很多是那個剛買房子的所以我們協組措施裡面就有這樣的一個協組措施那還有就是說你如果說預售五年是足夠協組的措施出來之後這方面的抱怨有比較減少嗎就比較少了啦就比較少了"},{"start":8023.019,"end":8039.905,"text":"再請教一下總裁美國的聯準會降息但是台灣最近升息然後總裁對他表示說貨幣政策會持續偏向緊縮短期內不會有降息的動作"},{"start":8043.103,"end":8058.435,"text":"好,我想呢,第一個就是說貨幣政策的一個調整是整個的我們的理事會共同來決定的,不過我個人的看法就是說到目前為止雖然我們預測說我們明年會"},{"start":8062.178,"end":8090.99,"text":"通膨會降到2%以下但是我們還是要持續的去觀察它因為預測有些時候不是非常準確的都要每一個季每一個季去做調整所以到目前為止我覺得我們的貨幣政策在這個水準是合理的最後我再問一下總裁就是說根據114年你們的預算書你們的存款跟放款的平均利率"},{"start":8092.01,"end":8106.879,"text":"對這個相較113年講吼是比較低一點點那這個是不是講說吼這個我們的貨幣政策在明年會比較寬鬆勒沒有沒有因為沒有他那個我們那個放款呢是外幣的"},{"start":8107.739,"end":8122.306,"text":"外幣的?外幣是反映美國的降息所以外幣的放款的利率是才會下來那我們本幣1.2到1.18差沒有多少只是說一個是113年年初的預算一個是"},{"start":8126.348,"end":8136.073,"text":"一個是12年那時候所做的預算那一個是113年年初的所做的預算所以差沒有差多少1.12跟1.18沒有差多少換款的那個部分純粹是外幣外幣因為它確實是下來"},{"start":8143.737,"end":8159.106,"text":"我是希望說打草房不是只有央行在做當然央行是動作出來之後會聯動的會影響財政或是金管會他們相關的政策我是希望說這個三個部會能夠一起來做謝謝委員鼓勵謝謝謝謝總裁謝謝主席謝謝昆城委員接著請顏寬恒委員諮詢"},{"start":8170.555,"end":8183.345,"text":"好再報告一下就是王世堅委員質詢完畢我要讓我們休息五分鐘主席各位立席官員大家好主席有請央行楊總裁請總裁"},{"start":8190.191,"end":8205.413,"text":"我很早總裁早是總裁現在民眾最關心的就是央行在禮監事會決議宣布的第七波房市信用管制的部分是是用來抑制炒房引發了金融風暴根據銀行法第72條"},{"start":8206.634,"end":8228.61,"text":"之二的規定商業銀行在辦理住宅建築．企業建築的總放款總額不得超過百分之三十那這個部分主要是在防止金融機構因為過度放貸引發系統性的風險那楊總裁你也在八月中還有九月初的時候邀請各銀行的高管就不動產集中度過高做這個檢討"},{"start":8231.232,"end":8239.568,"text":"那要求銀行提出不動產總量的方案貸款總量方案這一波被外界解釋為現代令"},{"start":8241.097,"end":8268.954,"text":"但是賴總統隨即又跳出來說沒有限貸令央行只是提醒而非要求我想要請教總裁賴總統這個說法是不是在打央行的臉你們前面才說就不動產貸款總量來進行檢討方案後腳總統就直接跳出來說這個是因應這樣的因應措施過蕩你們這樣的因應措施過蕩你有沒有覺得沒有他沒有說我們的因應過蕩"},{"start":8269.975,"end":8284.96,"text":"而是說現代令這個我們也有在向外面解釋的幾次所謂的現代令是因為72條之二各個銀行因為它到達一個警戒值"},{"start":8285.66,"end":8290.704,"text":"我必須要做一些的資源的分配所以呢他們做了一個自主性的一個限制所以呢他的現在是銀行所做的而不是政府做的所以政府他說"},{"start":8310.659,"end":8333.905,"text":"那總統跟院長也就是說是沒有啊,政府沒有所謂的現代化。總裁,我在這邊很直白地說,會讓你們這麼頭痛,要讓你們扮黑臉的根本主要原因就是新清安嘛,對不對?新清安到現在超過40%貸款,那放款都是新清安,那超過6000多億嘛,對不對?"},{"start":8335.312,"end":8357.782,"text":"不過我們也要就是說...沒關係,我是要跟你講講,現在有五年的寬限期那所以昨天財政部長也有說大概有超過20幾趴的部分是所謂的五年寬限期其他部分不在這五年之內,有三年的有什麼的有什麼的我講的就是說,有導致有很多沒有辦法負擔的人也跟著一起貸"},{"start":8358.925,"end":8358.945,"text":"報告．"},{"start":8384.938,"end":8411.905,"text":"做一個這個這個協調這個溝通那現在總統跳出來說沒有現代沒有現代令這個就是自己就打自己的臉嗎因為因為報告委員就是說我記得我記得很清楚院長跟總統呢他在講就是說沒有現代令他說官方沒有現代令的這個事情因為剛剛我解釋的就是說現代令是"},{"start":8412.845,"end":8437.825,"text":"各個銀行因為銀行法72條之二的一個限制他們自己來所做的一個措施那這個跟政府行政院跟總統跟中央銀行沒有關係的是沒有關係的所以我當然希望每一個年輕人都能夠擁有自己的房子但是不是靠著說去"},{"start":8438.726,"end":8454.478,"text":"提高乘數、貸款乘數或者說拉高上限然後用這種方法去鼓勵年輕人買房那寬限期過了過了之後造成後面的我們無法想像會什麼情況這因為我們擔憂的嘛所以拜託請這位總裁有機會跟總理講不要再這樣子的"},{"start":8459.682,"end":8482.17,"text":"不要亂說,不然他會說你沒錢你做的這個工作然後又要來扮黑臉來收拾產局當然也要跟財政部講因為這個政策帶給你們很大的困擾那我們祭出第七波的信用管制是因為資金過度流入不動產的一個風險是巨大的所以我們從很多的國家我們可以看到這個房市泡沫化的產礦"},{"start":8483.581,"end":8505.266,"text":"好的央行能夠頂住壓力本席很肯定我們楊總裁能夠預視到未來可能發生的風險及時提出因應措施但是也因為提出的狀況過於急躁導致於說這項政策有不少無辜的民眾被捲入其中這你不否認"},{"start":8508.992,"end":8535.806,"text":"受到相關的限制我有看到央行在10月9號發布的第七波信用管制的一個配套那裡面有三大內容就是說包括這個繼承取得房屋及房貸還有實質換入需求已經與這個金融機構竊解約定的還有自然能以簽訂購屋合約然後即將申辦貸款的這個都排除適用都排除適用所以"},{"start":8536.266,"end":8536.286,"text":"韓國瑜"},{"start":8558.456,"end":8575.807,"text":"在制定政策的時候事先在問題建構的階段就應該把這些利害相關都考慮其中不然你到後面事後發現來做事後的補救老實講這個是事倍功半啦會得到這個民眾反而會失去信心"},{"start":8577.228,"end":8605.836,"text":"打掃房的確是維持經濟穩定的一個重要措施那尤其是現今我們的房市過熱那房價高漲泡沫化的這個風險這個漸漸升高的情況之下所以央行跟政府有責任透過一個審慎的政策干預來避免過度的投機行為導致的危機所以這不是短期的行為是一個需要全盤考量"},{"start":8606.816,"end":8628.214,"text":"持續施立的一個長期的戰略那政策的穩定性最重要我要在這邊再提醒總裁朝夕另改會使市場混亂我們一直在提醒一直在提醒那如果認為政策確實會動搖民心我們就要提出建言要提出要求"},{"start":8629.595,"end":8651.031,"text":"所以我想在未來在設計打房措施的時候我們的可預見性跟透明性這個部分政策的制定打草房部應該只是針對某一個群組或者是暫時性的市場波動是一個持續監管跟調節市場的一種手段一種方法"},{"start":8651.932,"end":8664.462,"text":"那我想能夠回應市場的變化跟民眾的需求才能夠真正體現整體經濟的一個平衡的發展因為時間有限那我想就再請教總裁一個問題就是這個CBDC數位貨幣的議題"},{"start":8670.166,"end":8691.836,"text":"上個會期我就有跟你探討過CBDC的進度那CBDC涉及到許多厲害關係人那同時也是需要跨部會的一個技術合作那這為了跟上全球化世界的步伐所以我知道這項技術不能貿然倉促的上路一定要考慮完整完善"},{"start":8692.536,"end":8718.238,"text":"那在上個會期以及你們這一次的業務報告書裡面本期都有看到你們除行平台會先與速速發布進行合作那未來政府機關會透過速發布的平台發放這個數位券那請問總裁數位券的功能是什麼是哪些人是這除行平台的主要用戶那因為平台是除行代"},{"start":8719.789,"end":8743.066,"text":"應該不會是全民都能夠使用所以我想請利用一點點時間總裁可以為我們說明一下是是是我初步我先跟委員報告事實上數位券就是說數位券包括委員我們有兩次的那個消費券有沒有消費券那個時候呢消費券是資本的"},{"start":8743.959,"end":8760.31,"text":"那如果說我們把這個資本的消費券呢把它變成數位化那來協助政府呢來發放那這樣的話會省時間而且呢我們如果按照我們的這個平台來講的話呢我們那個平台它的容量呢會足夠的來應付它"},{"start":8761.271,"end":8779.292,"text":"議員．"},{"start":8779.605,"end":8807.599,"text":"總裁在發行數位貨幣上包含數位券還有其他的部分對希望央行能夠舉辦更多的這樣子的一個公聽會我們公聽會、說明會還有那個論壇我們都會然後納入更多元的意見是是是利害關心人之間對對對意見的交換我們會我們會讓CPTC可以上路可以順利是好是謝謝謝謝委員鼓勵好謝謝坤衡委員那接著請王世堅委員"},{"start":8825.147,"end":8851.093,"text":"謝謝主席,我請我們總裁。好,有請總裁。王委員早。總裁最近辛苦了。我非常謝謝,真的我非常謝謝那個委員。我們中央銀行要做的事情,你要對抗的,剛好是我們國內這最重要的兩大"},{"start":8853.813,"end":8865.758,"text":"廣告供應者之一就是這些建商房地產業者那當然在我們祭出這第七波"},{"start":8867.676,"end":8893.091,"text":"這個信用管制之後那他們相對的就做了很多反彈是利用他們在媒體的優勢是因為他們長期提供那麼大量的廣告從電視廣播網路這個平面媒體雜誌甚至報紙等等他們會製造一些錯誤的訊息假的新聞來騷擾了那當然"},{"start":8896.629,"end":8903.112,"text":"這個都必須靠你們專業的一些堅持還有辦法繼續享受這個政策"},{"start":8907.628,"end":8928.254,"text":"最近這個審計部抽查那麼他針對我們從民國110年9月開始我們就有針對說購地貸款建商購地貸款那麼他必須在一定期間內我們是給他們18個月一定期間內要來動工"},{"start":8930.174,"end":8956.948,"text":"那麼他抽查的結果這兩家銀行我倒是很訝異他一家抽查說臺灣銀行跟土地銀行這兩家銀行臺灣銀行是還好喔他超過18個月沒有動工的這一個部分只佔他這個不動產借貸這一個部分的0.45%但是土地銀行竟然佔了5.11%"},{"start":8959.989,"end":8976.149,"text":"哇這一點齁這個而且土地銀行購地貸款18個月沒有動工的餘額增加了16%增加了16%所以我覺得在這一個部分"},{"start":8977.697,"end":9001.018,"text":"既然我們有這個規定而且這一個規定是正確的就是說如果銀行把過多的融資金額給予建商讓他們去買地、養地、圈地那當然在地小人稠的我們台灣當然房地產"},{"start":9002.619,"end":9021.928,"text":"會暫假是那建商當然有他們一定的獲利需求但是也不能到這種不擇手段的地步是所以我認為這一個部分土地囊在這一個部分我覺得也應該嚴格遵守所以那個"},{"start":9024.109,"end":9031.776,"text":"總裁我們銀行法第130條違反中央銀行信用管制可以處新台幣100萬到2000萬元的罰款所以這個部分"},{"start":9036.963,"end":9063.063,"text":"我想是不是你應該去針對台銀,欸針對土地銀行,台銀還好啦,台銀至少是個模範生嘛,土地銀行這個部分是不是應該去盯一盯他?好,我們這個委員的提醒我們馬上來,我回去的時候我們馬上來了解狀況。還有以及啊,我們要做一些普查啦,比方說"},{"start":9064.878,"end":9089.573,"text":"比方說現在這一兩年內我們銀行體系都有針對這些建商高負債率的我比方說有去年前年都有提出十大高負債比例的建商那個第一名第二名負債率都高達八成以上前十名最少68%我記得第十名68%"},{"start":9092.375,"end":9119.58,"text":"那也就是說我們剛剛講的這一些利用財務槓桿高金額來借貸銀行現在這麼低的利率那麼他用來買地養地圈地所以這我認為是不是央行應該出手要求這一些銀行尤其借貸給這十大高負債建商"},{"start":9120.12,"end":9135.613,"text":"而這十大高負債建商的公司如果你去詳閱他的財報內容他們都構置了很多閒置的土地他根本就是買地養地圈地是非常清楚的所以"},{"start":9136.354,"end":9154.333,"text":"我們沒辦法直接對建商怎麼樣可是中央銀行可以對這些銀行下手跟這些銀行講說站在社會公平正義居住正義的立場他們不應該去助紂為虐好不好這個部分你要跟他查查"},{"start":9155.333,"end":9165.1,"text":"我非常佩服這個委員你特別是你引用了這個央行法第38條這個央行法第38條在我們的這個道德說服那段時間我們的經檢處每一場他都參與而且我們也都跟我們的經檢處就像委員所說的我們要"},{"start":9179.673,"end":9207.45,"text":"要不定期的去了解他們是不是有遵守銀行法的規定還有遵守我們對他的道德說服這一點我跟委員報告真的我們中央銀行有在做檢討我們不但例行性的要做尤其現在我們既然祭出了這第七波這個現代令那土法不足以自行我們一定"},{"start":9209.151,"end":9225.666,"text":"喔一定要跟著這個去查查是然後跟著這個棒子就要來了欸是是要不然欸他當作個螞蟻東風根本來個不帥是是是他尤其查查的我們就要連著因為這"},{"start":9227.888,"end":9242.086,"text":"幾年來我們政府一直在推動各企業往ESG這個方向這是正確的環境國家的永續但是ESG在銀行的部分本來"},{"start":9244.617,"end":9262.182,"text":"財政部金管會是交由第一銀行說這個ESG去推動去怎麼樣落實結果第一銀行有製作了ESG的查核表格但是這個表格製作了交給各銀行去針對"},{"start":9264.476,"end":9289.21,"text":"來貸款的企業是不是ESG有達到尤其對建商啦建商ESG的責任特別重大不只他蓋的產品應該注重ESG過程裡面公安的問題等等以外因為建商貸款金額那麼大嘛他的責任當然更重結果有了這個表格"},{"start":9290.728,"end":9302.578,"text":"但是沒有實際去落實表格填一填但是也沒有對違反這表格內容尤其對於綠色的"},{"start":9304.146,"end":9325,"text":"這個要求尤其對於公安的要求那有的公安連年失誤每年都在摔傷甚至不幸導致工人死亡的案例那麼多的公司越多違反ESG規定的公司貸款越高"},{"start":9326.161,"end":9342.553,"text":"那連一個基本的處罰說把他要不然每個申請案降低他額度要不然把他提高他的貸款利率都沒有都沒有所以這個部分總裁我們只能委請中央銀行就是說這個部分因為你們是"},{"start":9343.514,"end":9363.003,"text":"銀行中的銀行是有你們下去管制這些銀行說你們有沒有去落實ESG是還有這個表格建制之後的要求是好不好好好好謝謝謝謝我另外要提幾點就是說我簡單提一下就是說"},{"start":9365.455,"end":9390.426,"text":"到底我們這一波信用管制是不是如坊間講的啦坊間講的很多我認為是假消息我認為比方說齁這個最近這一兩個月說央行打得太用力了啦換屋主哀嚎說小建商恐怕會倒閉這些很多是錯誤信息甚至背後"},{"start":9391.688,"end":9397.226,"text":"是建商刻意在推動的假消息他藉由自入性的"},{"start":9398.303,"end":9426.029,"text":"新聞是藉由這樣子的方式在製作這樣子的假訊息那包括說這個購屋這個導致說現在消費者借不到房屋青年朋友要來自產的借不到房屋貸款這些都鬼扯啦因為這個是他們講的借不到的是大部分都是屯屋族啦是老房客是真的"},{"start":9426.749,"end":9427.509,"text":"我了解到的"},{"start":9456.283,"end":9475.709,"text":"比較客觀的民調不動產仲介工會他的網路民調他說這一次打房有38.5%的民眾認為這個房價可能會下跌那時候一定會下跌的13.5%也就是說合計有超過50%超過一半52%的民眾認為這個會達到房價下跌所以"},{"start":9488.185,"end":9512.487,"text":"總裁這個方向是對的難得能夠來抑制這個狂飆的房價那當然啦這一波這個裡面還有一個結論是說有兩成的民眾說認為央行應該繼續在第八波信用管制那這個部分當然就是再研究啦再研究"},{"start":9512.907,"end":9531.034,"text":"那我覺得說有一些我們沒有讓消費者理解到的訊息那這個要加強宣達最後一點就是說竟然竟然有的銀行利用這一次青年朋友頭一次來購屋那他們就寄出說這個你要購買"},{"start":9532.755,"end":9552.148,"text":"金龍相關的這個比方說搭配保險、理財商品要購買這些財能貸款我覺得這個部分我們特別要跟銀行要求他們不要趁這一次這種上下棋手來對青年朋友對新購屋族造成他們的困擾"},{"start":9553.409,"end":9572.281,"text":"全不能也不應該有說要搭配購買金融消費商品購買保險才能夠貸款這一點要銀行一定要去落實好不好現在的銀行大部分都是金控公司嘛金控就什麼都有啊保險啦證券啦"},{"start":9575.423,"end":9580.587,"text":"臺什麼都有混在一起了是那是不對的好謝謝謝謝謝謝委員支持謝謝我們暫時休息五分鐘"},{"start":9604.534,"end":9627.539,"text":"二、邀請中央銀行公司董事長列席業務報告．並備質詢。�"},{"start":9630.06,"end":9644.718,"text":"議員會議員會議員會議員會議員會議員會議員會議員會議"},{"start":9648.268,"end":9675.93,"text":"議員會議員會議員會議員會議員會"},{"start":9684.309,"end":9687.176,"text":"響鐘"},{"start":9731.837,"end":9731.939,"text":"主席。"},{"start":9755.896,"end":9779.138,"text":"響鐘響鐘響鐘"},{"start":9780.742,"end":9788.797,"text":"響鐘"},{"start":9832.033,"end":9842.601,"text":"二、邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就:「第七波選擇性信用管制之配套措施 進行專題報告．並備質詢。」"},{"start":9871.544,"end":9896.22,"text":"響鐘響鐘響鐘"},{"start":9913.882,"end":9936.493,"text":"響鐘響鐘"},{"start":9940.162,"end":9956.869,"text":"響鐘"},{"start":9977.978,"end":9996.698,"text":"響鐘響鐘響鐘"},{"start":10005.762,"end":10009.283,"text":"好,我們繼續開會接著請王珊珊委員質詢我們請王珊珊委員好,請楊總裁是,請總裁"},{"start":10043.647,"end":10063.789,"text":"黃委員早是總裁早我想剛剛我被記者拉著要問你一個問題雖然我不太喜歡問這種比較不屬於政策的問題希望能夠了解一下包括金融管制這件事情請問賴總統有沒有跟你溝通過或者是用什麼方式跟你溝通的"},{"start":10065.093,"end":10087.023,"text":"我想呢就是說總統講到就是說他也有提到他不是說我們過當沒有所以有幾個委員就講就是說他我記得好像總統是說金融機構所以沒有直接跟你溝通啊沒有他沒有講說我們那個什麼那個說過當沒有沒有這回事"},{"start":10087.443,"end":10096.395,"text":"沒有這回事所以你就是說你沒有寫LINE也沒有打電話就對了沒有沒有沒有以上是記者要問的那接下來是我要問的"},{"start":10098.92,"end":10125.172,"text":"總裁在我們全環球金融雜誌公布的2024全球央行的總裁評比以前我們都是得A所以這次被降為B家我在我寫了一篇臉書說這是你的非戰之罪我想央行幫執政黨的各部門背了一個很大的黑鍋產生的內憂外患一個是現在號稱國內的金龍海嘯金龍海嘯就是你打房打得太兇了"},{"start":10125.672,"end":10133.492,"text":"另外就是外患就是被國際金融相關的雜誌評比為必加總裁你要不要說一下你的感想"},{"start":10135.216,"end":10162.779,"text":"如果說我們就是說是從A降到B加就是說是被黑鉤我覺得這個也是是委員對我們的美言不過從我們中央銀行的立場還有我個人的一個立場來看的話我總覺得中央銀行第一個要虛心檢討第二個我們要"},{"start":10163.459,"end":10180.698,"text":"持續的努力表示說中央銀行還有精進進步的空間對我想我在上個會期就講過其實我覺得重點在於從2020年我們開始第一波信用管制其實到現在已經七波了"},{"start":10181.218,"end":10205.639,"text":"然後從2022年的相關的房市的狀況房價的狀況其實央行一直希望說總裁也在記者會裡面表示過希望房市能夠軟著路軟著路有兩個條件價格要慢慢往下調炒作要退場總裁七波了價格有沒有慢慢往下調炒作有沒有退場"},{"start":10207.265,"end":10229.277,"text":"所以這個也就是說我們為什麼我們在第七波為什麼還要第七波就是因為沒有發生嘛你的目標預期沒有做到嘛所以第七波其實是在收前面的爛攤子我必須要很沉痛的說出來因為我們在今年去應該說大選年我們本來做了一個居住正義很重要的平均地權條例"},{"start":10230.934,"end":10255.503,"text":"這個政策讓房價暫時抑制了一部分其實只有抑制了兩個月兩個月之後的8月推出了行情案貸款我的天哪房價就再也沒有下來過從相關的這個房屋指數房價指數來說2022年的下半年到今年的9月整整27個月只有兩個月的房租年增率低於2%也就是"},{"start":10256.772,"end":10263.827,"text":"你剛剛講的價格慢慢往下調沒有發生而且價格往上漲的速度還在不斷提高"},{"start":10264.844,"end":10286.759,"text":"更快了更快的漲所以總裁這兩個是你要推出第七波信用管制的主要原因對嗎應該是了就是說他的預期我們報告也有講到就是說預期心理非常強所以這個金龍海嘯其實是執政黨以前錯誤矛盾的政策互相推擠的浪花只是灌在楊金龍的頭上"},{"start":10287.56,"end":10294.765,"text":"但是他有一個很大的問題是他讓房價降不下來建商剛剛講這些小建商每天放這些消息其實當時如果平均地點條例下來之後房價會往下降"},{"start":10318.142,"end":10342.924,"text":"跟您的預期一樣但是新青安讓它止降讓它撐在那裡而且因為我們又有6000多億的錢又投入了房地產市場這才是整個房價你必須要用第七波來做的原因不過後來後來院裡面也有救新青安的做得很好總裁我的時間有限我只要說有希望你原來預設的目標跟政策方向"},{"start":10343.744,"end":10367.144,"text":"在你的第七波做不到的話第八波繼續做你的金龍海嘯力度可以再大一點否則這個目標永遠達不成我們持續檢討密切關注持續檢討第二個部分就是我們現在很多房貸因為你的相關管制方式很多人帶不到了有沒有發現信貸增加然後流到不動產的狀況"},{"start":10370.794,"end":10382.858,"text":"我在想應該也會有不過我跟委員報告這個也就是說金管會他也在這一方面他會做精檢我們的精檢處也會做專案精檢就這個部分"},{"start":10387.8,"end":10404.932,"text":"我想我要跟委員報告我們如果要達到你的第一個目標就要禁止信貸進入不動產市場否則你這個信用管制又沒有用我們來注意這個專案金檢金管會要做央行我覺得你的政策要落實這是非常重要否則"},{"start":10405.692,"end":10416.196,"text":"一波兩波七波了也沒有用一定有出了什麼原因接下來是9月我們電價調漲10月16號上路那雖然都漲的是產業的電價漲幅到14%那產業平均調漲了12%"},{"start":10423.738,"end":10438.239,"text":"我們之前9月份的禮監事會當時有把這個放進來嗎那時候沒有那時候沒有那現在你現在預計接下去的我們的通膨會受到這個影響有多少沒有很大因為第一個"},{"start":10439.32,"end":10465.005,"text":"今年如果說以整年來講的話呢我們的估測呢是大概他會有0.125左右的0.125但是那是整年但是呢到就今年來看的話呢今年來看呢他只剩下幾個月所以今年如果再有廠商說因為電價調漲所以他要調漲他的相關商品你覺得合理嗎基本上應該廠商比較不會"},{"start":10465.865,"end":10471.788,"text":"總裁我想問一下我們對於所謂你3月份的時候是說你那時候升息是因為要抑制國內通膨的預期心理請問我們對於通膨預期心理有做過相關的調查嗎"},{"start":10492.82,"end":10515.938,"text":"我們現在呢就開始在就是說對做過幾次了對我們不是我們事實上呢我們本身吼也有有一些很多模型在預測就是說欸我們下一個月會多少啊這個整年會多少我們有很多的模型那針對消費者的這個部分呢我們現在是委託中央研究院有相關的數字嗎是是是我們"},{"start":10519.601,"end":10535.906,"text":"因為疫情心理就會是你接下去很多貨幣政策的我同意一定要有調查才會有相關的資訊嘛但重點在於說我們現在長期以來穩定物價都是用補貼包括電價"},{"start":10537.326,"end":10556.963,"text":"可能還有很多的包括潔運現在電價也漲很多但是潔運票價也不能漲我們長期公用政策用補貼的方式其實是對於所謂的真正的價格我們可能抑制的價格可是我們產生了更多的內部的成本你同意嗎"},{"start":10558.584,"end":10573.072,"text":"這個我跟委員報告齁,如果說我個人的看法啦齁,就譬如像說北捷但是我即使說北捷的這個店齁,就是說他比較長時間就是說把他凍結齁,就是說比較沒有帳齁"},{"start":10574.173,"end":10580.716,"text":"我覺得還好,為什麼?因為北捷本身呢,他都賺錢。那這一次呢,台電的這個部分呢,是因為我個人的看法。"},{"start":10591.962,"end":10602.249,"text":"我意思只是說你同意長期用價格控制政府補貼的方式來決定市場的機制嗎我們的問題是我們要適度的慢慢短期只能短期來實施這樣的一個這個把這一段期間如果說解決了以後我們就要把它放寬就要歐美曾經發生過一模一樣的狀況所以他們慢慢的回歸市場機制"},{"start":10622.002,"end":10642.818,"text":"同樣的台灣長期用價格去抑制用所謂的補貼去抑制價格但是我們其實不是一個正常的市場最後一個簡單的小問題很有趣總裁我們常常央行會發行紀念幣對不對紀念幣最近我接到很多的銀樓朋友來問因為他們很多現在金幣漲價"},{"start":10644.839,"end":10673.957,"text":"一顆金電幣那時候買是七萬兩千塊現在大概可以賣到八萬五所以淨賺一萬三很多人拿去銀樓然後他們就說我可不可以把它融化然後銀樓很害怕因為這個好像中央銀行發行的就叫做法幣就是國幣這個有沒有算到所謂的防害國幣懲治條例啊我是不是黃委員我要請我們的發言人來好請說就給銀樓業者一個答案"},{"start":10675.177,"end":10698.081,"text":"是,跟委員報告有關這個問題確實是我們發行：我們買了的人都很想賣掉啦我們發行的就是國幣啦所以怎麼辦呢?你要不要修法把這個從國幣裡面剔除否則這些相關的事情可能會沒被檢舉就算了被檢舉的時候一年以上七年以下是不得了的事耶"},{"start":10699.646,"end":10712.718,"text":"這個確實是觸犯了所謂的我們的防害國幣懲治條例所以要不要做調整要不要告知要不要修正可是這個定罪應該是有司法機關來定罪但是你要先定它是不是國幣嗎"},{"start":10714.218,"end":10714.238,"text":"拜訪議員"},{"start":10737.621,"end":10760.828,"text":"國家要保護的法幣我覺得可以讓他從這個法條把它除外是你們去研究一下好這個會期來不及下個會期以前給我一個答覆好謝謝好謝謝謝謝謝謝好謝謝珊珊委員那接著請林柱英委員林柱英林柱英委員不在那接著請羅敏采委員"},{"start":10767.782,"end":10788.408,"text":"主席各位委員處理的習慣大家好主席可不可以請楊總裁是請楊總裁楊總裁你好現在開始就是電價暴漲那事實上接著會不會萬物起漲"},{"start":10789.656,"end":10814.329,"text":"大家都很擔心了那店家暴漲了以後會不會影響到整個通膨的發展我們再看今年都年底了接著就過年一連串都是節日假期這個會不會間接性讓台灣整個通膨的情況一觸可發然後會造成失控的情況"},{"start":10815.86,"end":10831.705,"text":"委員講到這裡就是說我看這一次就是說經濟部他要漲電價就台電要漲電價我覺得他也很謹慎所以他也考慮到這個委員所擔心的事情"},{"start":10832.265,"end":10837.833,"text":"所以你看看他這一次他就純粹就這些產業比較賺錢的產業比如說電子業他這些一挑帳的時候他要繳的電費就比較高了但是呢"},{"start":10849.429,"end":10876.592,"text":"因為產業的這個他大部分都是出口而且這些的產業呢大部分都是賺錢而且呢他的車即使說他要他要就是說他要他要那個給這個消費者就是說給就是說就是說轉嫁給消費者事實上呢他轉嫁也是轉嫁到那個什麼國外的那個進口商所以呢基本上對台灣的物價呢比較不會有受到影響"},{"start":10877.593,"end":10890.545,"text":"一點影響都沒有?我一想很少啊事實上是對事實上我們同意那個經濟部他台電呢他也有經濟部他也有估計呢他大概呢今年呢他的影響是0.03"},{"start":10892.367,"end":10917.034,"text":"所以0.03基本上我們九月份的那個物價的一個預測預告預測呢基本上我們的大概我們的修改大概很少很少所以呢我還是要跟委員報告基本上我們的物價呢現在是慢慢在下來的不會就像那個那個委員所說的會就是說是那個什麼一發不可縮時絕對不會"},{"start":10918.414,"end":10935.928,"text":"現在通膨的情況老百姓其實心裡是很痛的比如說一個包子好了包子以前一顆大概六七塊現在一顆包子要三十塊滷肉飯總裁你記得吧以前我們吃大概一碗大概是十二塊左右現在滷肉飯現在多少"},{"start":10940.912,"end":10967.442,"text":"我想委員講的也沒有錯啦。觀眾的壓力感覺越來越沉重。不過是這樣子啦。是唉聲連連,不想的向誰來訴說。是啦,我覺得委員的這個...我們在想一件事情,總裁大概央行裡面是最表現是算很好的啦。謝謝,謝謝委員。台電連連虧損。"},{"start":10970.163,"end":10989.629,"text":"又要撥補一千億後面可能再加一千億其他地方沒有錢了啦我們大家講一講也不同意啦除非央行你自己補給他啦央行那麼會賺央行有沒有可能在盈餘裡面直接撥給他去年央行的盈餘是多少我們去年呢"},{"start":10990.751,"end":11008.851,"text":"我們去年是就是說繳國庫呢是兩千億吧是不是那我們是去年兩千億我們是兩千億以前最早是八百億後來一千多億就是說對對對我們是兩千億是兩千億沒有錯那為什麼央行會變得那麼會賺錢"},{"start":11010.566,"end":11030.462,"text":"我們事實上我們是很穩健的去管理我們的外資產所以也就是說我們也不像其他的央行一樣的其他的央行我總覺得他們的一個管理的方法是比較take a risk就是說他們去冒險比較大"},{"start":11036.567,"end":11057.025,"text":"大操作所以呢他們的他們的結果呢是會有有些時候會會會沒有賺錢有些時候會賺很多那我們的中央銀行呢是我們比較不會就take risk因為我們是強調的是流動性跟安全性流動性跟安全安全性那然後呢在這種我們覺得沒有問題的情況之下呢我們來"},{"start":11058.166,"end":11080.833,"text":"按照就是說我們是那個我們是那個管理者和善良管理者的一個角色呢我們要盡量的來讓我們的return我們的收益能夠增加所以我們的收益腳褲的金額大概都是很平穩的我們都很平穩的那今年會不會再增加呢"},{"start":11083.595,"end":11101.354,"text":"我們今年就是2000億啊2000億喔那在我們的外匯存底裡面喔買美國的國債大概買了多少我們至少都有8包括美元的資產呢我們應該是至少都有8成以上8成以上大概是8兆多吧台幣9兆"},{"start":11104.042,"end":11107.488,"text":"我們都是用美金來...美國的所有的國債5,770幾億外存抵納乘以80%"},{"start":11113.971,"end":11122.855,"text":"我請問你美國的國債一再的破表現在已經累計大概34兆美元了我想請問總裁一個問題那他時間到他還得起來嗎?"},{"start":11141.919,"end":11165.614,"text":"他的財務狀況也下預況相較之下當然就是說委員講的也沒有錯不過相較其他的國家來講的話美元還是現在是最比較比較可靠的一個比較可靠的一個投資工具那總裁如果美元破產了央行有沒有B計畫"},{"start":11167.082,"end":11194.57,"text":"有什麼B計劃基本上基本上我們是我們都是有在密切的注意密切的注意就是說我們的外匯存底的一個流動性還有它的安全性最重要的安全性我覺得你蠻準的啊因為上次我在野色這個地方我跟你請教說那很多哈日族啊要不要在日幣最低點"},{"start":11195.39,"end":11222.157,"text":"就是大概一美元兌換158日元的時候你那時候在這裡講說差不多到底了結果果然從你講的那一個時刻開始日幣就開始升值升到140多所以你知道那天有注意聽的老師有講課學生認真聽的他日主看他爸爸爸"},{"start":11223.803,"end":11246.916,"text":"所以我對你的這個判斷其實是有具參考性的所以說美元現在慢慢會美元強勢的地位慢慢改變那你第二個貨幣的選擇你會選擇哪裡會不會選擇歐元還是選擇人民幣或者是日元因為日元最近又貶到150左右了"},{"start":11248.998,"end":11275.46,"text":"我跟委員報告就是說基本上我們的幣比的調整事實上就誠如委員在講的就是說它的第一個我們會考慮到就是說它的匯率的變化第二個呢我們會考慮到它的利率的變化所以呢在這種那當然啦是安全性啦還有安全性啦所以呢我們在這樣的呢我們隨時在動態的調整日本會不會再升息?"},{"start":11277.365,"end":11302.813,"text":"我想我跟委員報告就是說我個人的判斷遲早遲早會剩一點遲早因為但是他的時間是怎麼樣這個我因為這是他所以我們看得到最近的日元又走軟所以有150兌換一美元這個甜蜜點又出現了央行會不會考慮增加持有日元的這個比重"},{"start":11303.942,"end":11320.281,"text":"基本上我們的調整是有做這樣的就是說其他的幣幣還有那個從美元或從人民幣這樣的做怎麼樣一個調整日幣也是我們其中考量之一日幣已經增加以前是3%多"},{"start":11321.562,"end":11346.491,"text":"最近已經增加到快5%了吧因為日幣唯一的缺點就是日幣的唯一缺點當然如果說純粹從匯率的觀點來看的話第一個它波動也蠻大的就誠如剛剛你說它158然後波波波到140然後又波波波到150所以這個也是波動很大的一個必備這是第一點第二點它也是它的利率太低"},{"start":11347.571,"end":11348.091,"text":"總裁你對美元的走勢未來怎麼看?"},{"start":11373.905,"end":11392.84,"text":"美元就說現在如果說以目前我們看就是說你看看10年期的公債的利率以前大家都認為就是說美國在調降利率的過程當中這10年期的公債的利率會下跌"},{"start":11393.38,"end":11420.769,"text":"但是呢最近的表現好像不是這樣子那這個表示什麼呢表示第一個就是說美國的經濟呢還是很有韌性的這是第一點第二點呢也是在反映就是說他的一個政治的不確定性包括就是說如果說川普上台的時候呢恐怕大家都會認為就是說我恐怕對通膨呢又會有不利的影響好像是市場呢也有做這樣的一個反應所以你希望川普當選嗎"},{"start":11422.269,"end":11442.127,"text":"這個我不予置評你都要判斷嘛兩邊當然我覺得中央銀行也會密切密切來關注就是說美國哪一位總統會當選那我們要怎麼那個你現在評比是哪一個比較會當選這個我不好意思在這邊那個那私下再跟我說好謝謝"},{"start":11447.227,"end":11452.944,"text":"響鐘"},{"start":11461.314,"end":11481.823,"text":"謝謝羅明財委員齁。蔓一貞蔓一貞蔓一貞委員不在。楊瓊英楊瓊英楊瓊英委員不在。張家俊張家俊張家俊委員不在。鄭振權鄭振權鄭振權委員不在。羅志強羅志強羅志強委員不在。習曉新習曉新習曉新委員不在。我們現在休息五分鐘。"},{"start":11501.086,"end":11503.528,"text":"好那我們繼續開會接著我們請吳立法委員質詢謝謝主席有請總裁有請總裁"},{"start":11532.252,"end":11549.425,"text":"總裁您好在夜報當中我們有看到就是中央銀行有預期本年今年跟明年全球經濟是溫和成長的通膨是降溫的那我們看一下"},{"start":11550.906,"end":11566.277,"text":"全球經濟成長率之前央行說這個3月的時候我們看到你們的夜報說這個2024的上半年預期是2.8%那實際最後我們看到是2.7%所以我覺得很準確"},{"start":11570.8,"end":11598.701,"text":"那麼今年的話呢你們是提到2025年你們是提到還是2.8%那我不曉得說總裁您對明年的全球經濟景氣有沒有信心我覺得就是說從今年開始主要的經濟體包括美國啦歐洲啦一些的經濟體重要的經濟體他們都在降息"},{"start":11599.521,"end":11606.547,"text":"那這個降息的時候對全球的經濟是利多那這個表示說國際貿易會增加所以我覺得到目前為止這樣的一個預測我覺得也是應該是合理的"},{"start":11621.88,"end":11643.718,"text":"不過呢就是說經濟的一個預測呢有些時候是也蠻困難的啦因為有很多的不確定因素所以呢這個也就是說每個月或是每個季呢他都會做一些的修改修正所以呢這個我們也會慢慢的會看看他的修正的情況怎麼樣"},{"start":11644.198,"end":11661.773,"text":"我覺得您就是客氣了因為確實目前看起來都很準比如你剛剛講的業報上面也有提到就是預期美英歐日因為它貨幣寬鬆的一個政策我們看到了確實證實精準預測降息對吧"},{"start":11665.836,"end":11680.562,"text":"那我就要請教總裁就是你能夠精準預測各國降息、貨幣寬鬆這些你都能夠精準的預測那對我們國內自己呢?你要如何面對通膨的考驗?"},{"start":11683.245,"end":11697.476,"text":"我跟委員報告就是說就我們台灣的一個物價事實上我們台灣的物價現在是慢慢在下來的你看看我們9月份才1.82我們的核心CPI才1.79那整年的話我們的預測我們整年今年的我們整年在9月份我們的預測是2.16"},{"start":11709.365,"end":11711.267,"text":"我們會每季每季做一些的修正"},{"start":11739.368,"end":11751.315,"text":"那最後就是說因為因為呢就是說國內的經濟國內的一個物價的情況他會有一些不確定因素那這些不確定因素呢你就必須要做一些的調整"},{"start":11752.566,"end":11776.356,"text":"總裁我也是要繼續講你看你預估今年經濟成長率部分回升到3.82%那我們對照一下這個臺灣各季經濟成長率也沒有太失準那2025年預期的成長率就變成是3.08為什麼"},{"start":11779.958,"end":11793.252,"text":"一個呢我覺得我這個也必須要說明一個很重要的因素也就是說我們如果我們今年的一個經濟成長率高的時候呢因為這個是基期的因素基期"},{"start":11794.013,"end":11821.753,"text":"就是說如果說基期高的時候呢你的下一年就會受到這個基期的因素的影響那不過呢雖然是3.08我個人認為明年的經濟成長它是還是持續的所以呢也就是說在我們的另外一頁11頁這邊我們經濟成長你看看我們如果說用季跟季來比較的時候呢你會發現就是說我們的經濟成長它是有動能的"},{"start":11822.453,"end":11847.379,"text":"而且明年它的動能是持續的所以表示說雖然3.08比今年的3.8來得低但是呢它的動能是比今年還強勁一點好這樣了解這個是激起的因素好了解那現在就是很奇怪嘛因為我們來看這一些提到我們的電子資通訊產品很強嘛那傳統產業貨品"},{"start":11851.86,"end":11851.88,"text":"報告．"},{"start":11868.362,"end":11891.919,"text":"阿經濟成長率就降到1.28%那2024年的上半年呢又回升到3.82%阿預估明年的成長率又降到3.08%所以這個部分總裁您也說明一下原因為何我就誠如我剛剛所說的就是說基本上雖然3.08比這個3.85來得"},{"start":11897.304,"end":11898.904,"text":"但是呢經濟成長因為我們的出口會增加的"},{"start":11921.749,"end":11922.009,"text":"總之聽到總裁您這樣一路講你對自己很有信心"},{"start":11946.992,"end":11962.957,"text":"我沒有信心也帶動我們有信心但是我就是希望說因為我希望你針對通膨還有碳費還有房貸緊縮的政策因為我們很關心嘛但是我們也發現過去"},{"start":11964.978,"end":11988.719,"text":"你的表現預測也很精準對自己也很有信心所以我希望說你對於我們這些抗通膨、碳費、房貸緊縮政策你再做一下對民生的影響預測跟因應的措施希望能夠在一個月內提供本席好不好最後也是要了解一個小問題因為上個會期"},{"start":11991.101,"end":11992.402,"text":"我先是不是請我們的財經公司來回答你這個問題來請"},{"start":12018.203,"end":12043.744,"text":"委員好,跟委員報告其實LiPay因為它是算第三方支付它不是電子支付機構所以根據金管會的這個電子支付管理條例來看的話它是不能夠加到這個平台上面來所以現在LiPay所以LiPay它可能需要去申請變成電子支付機構才可以加到這個平台上面來那目前進度如何?"},{"start":12044.585,"end":12068.033,"text":"這個LiPay去申請電子支付機構的時候我們沒有確確的資料因為它是他們公司的政策因為我特別要講的就是說從消費者的角度所以那個時候才會有這樣的諮詢所以我還是希望說就一併就是一個月內呢希望可以給我一個精進跟辦理的方式的一個報告"},{"start":12069.313,"end":12069.434,"text":"邀請邱志偉委員"},{"start":12101.322,"end":12103.228,"text":"謝謝主席,有請楊總裁好,請總裁"},{"start":12112.407,"end":12135.704,"text":"總裁早9月19日理事會召開然後做第七次第七度系統管制措施的決議那你們協處措施是10月9日才發布我是建議這個方向是正確但是你應當是跟協處措施一起公告才對"},{"start":12137.304,"end":12138.065,"text":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍"},{"start":12151.067,"end":12175.452,"text":"市場或購屋者需求端或供給端對你們這個管制具體的內容並不是那麼了解所以說應當未來有重大的決策的時候應當同步針對協助措施應當你們要設想好要同時公告比如哪些是排除的、繼承的、換屋者的"},{"start":12179.115,"end":12183.643,"text":"總總那你的排除條款要一併出來不然二十幾天大家問來問去那個總裁你有什麼看法"},{"start":12190.071,"end":12209.021,"text":"我覺得委員講的也沒有錯就是說協處的措施如果說在當時一併提出來我想那是理想不過協處措施基本上是銀行在執行的時候這是比較細節一點的"},{"start":12210.902,"end":12231.324,"text":"所以呢也就是說我們在做這個選擇性信用管制的時候呢協處措施只是比較是執行面比較細節面所以呢這個在我們的這個管制措施要宣布的當時呢我們是不會就是說馬上因為因為這個裡面呢會涉及到就是說"},{"start":12232.265,"end":12232.705,"text":"我跟委員報告．"},{"start":12248.07,"end":12262.936,"text":"像像譬如說換屋換屋的話呢第一個我們上一次我們換屋的協助措施我們就已經有啊那我們只是說我們除了就換屋以外呢我們也在聽聽一下看看有哪些的譬如說劇劇成的"},{"start":12264.377,"end":12290.401,"text":"議員議員議員"},{"start":12291.141,"end":12308.052,"text":"這個這個下去第七波下去對這個這一項的一個新新設的一個限制呢下去的時候呢那我玩第一個他就會他就會反映出來這個你們是政策的這個制定者但是你對這個政策下去所所做相關的影響"},{"start":12309.033,"end":12327.254,"text":"你們應該做事前的評估不過就是說委員的建議是對的啦是不是沒有錯啦不過呢我總覺得我們的補救措施也不是說很慢譬如說我們一個月以後並不是這種補救措施你們在政策推出來之前"},{"start":12327.734,"end":12328.195,"text":"是是是是是是是"},{"start":12346.118,"end":12346.719,"text":"我是覺得以後"},{"start":12369.222,"end":12383.898,"text":"是是是同時好我們我們來我們來來來那你這個你針對換屋者可以先買後賣對一年的期限是那決定權是在銀行端對不對"},{"start":12385.111,"end":12388.135,"text":"一年的時候呢我們就說銀行呢你就是必須要做這樣的一個管制"},{"start":12400.391,"end":12415.768,"text":"我們如果說做真和協主措施的時候我們會公告而且我們會通知銀行所以我們在專題報告裡面我們的附件這邊Q&A主要的就是要告訴銀行你就是根據這個來辦理"},{"start":12417.777,"end":12445.055,"text":"對啦,他說銀行得取消寬限期收回貸款本金或貸款成數的差額,對喔,不是因喔,這個為銀行端沒點是完全的叫你的機器來驚喔是,由銀行來決定啦,我們是希望他這樣子做啦如果說,好啦,我這個我比較我比較仁慈一點給你一年兩個月,一年三個月,或者給你兩年,這樣可以嗎?"},{"start":12447.716,"end":12474.327,"text":"我想呢我們如果說是規定一年除非呢除非他有特別的一個原因那特別的原因呢銀行會告訴我們我們如果說我們了解之後呢覺得就是說他的這個個案是非常特殊的非常特殊的話也許可以延長這個就是說個案有些時候個案是非常複雜的有些是房子是要用都更為老"},{"start":12474.787,"end":12477.428,"text":"這個委員我們會考量 各案也有各案的這個排除性 以簽約的自然的以簽約的 這個可以排除"},{"start":12492.672,"end":12519.578,"text":"那所謂簽約是跟銀行端簽約還是跟建設公司簽約?不,跟建設公司簽約它是另外一塊的簽約那跟銀行的簽約是又跟銀行的簽約,它這兩個,不過...不是啊,你的排除是...排除是...跟銀行端簽約...不是,不是,因為它不是...它就是說只要你的我們的管制措施是這樣子如果說你到時候你"},{"start":12521.198,"end":12534.934,"text":"要你簽訂契約那進來這裡的時候呢跟銀行申請就是一樣的都可以都可以收到我跟這個在920之前919之前我就已經跟這個建設公司簽約了"},{"start":12536.315,"end":12536.676,"text":"訂金也負了"},{"start":12554.236,"end":12567.314,"text":"我跟委員報告只要就是說你是第一戶第二戶你進來銀行那就沒有問題如果說你第三戶第四戶第五戶的那些的話那你就要根據你要根據那個定型化契約去走"},{"start":12568.393,"end":12595.727,"text":"定型化契約因為內政部他也有公告一個你買方跟建設公司他簽訂的一個契約如果說雙方這個這個我們在我們的新聞稿裡面我們也有我們也有PO出來啊這是內政部他所管轄的一個範圍這個定型化契約裡面他也定那那是要歸則於誰所以呢也就是說他的契約裡面他就會訂定啊"},{"start":12597.813,"end":12605.921,"text":"如果說這個部分我把相關的資料我給委員參考我私下我給委員參考對那如果如果說是不是不可規則於雙方的話那這樣的話就要根據這個定型的話契約來走"},{"start":12619.52,"end":12634.358,"text":"那這個有規定那我們把這個規定送給委員參考就是說我的結論就是說協署跟你的政策這個管制作為你要一併出來這個我們來研究研究好好謝謝"},{"start":12638.237,"end":12648.35,"text":"好,謝謝這位委員。葉延芝葉延芝葉延芝委員不在。高金素美高金素美高金素美委員不在。好本席在這裡報跟"},{"start":12652.608,"end":12677.305,"text":"跟大家做一個報告今日登記的花園委員均已詢答完畢本次會議做成如下的決定報告跟詢答完畢委員質詢未及時答覆或請補充資訊請中央銀行一周內已書面答覆委員如果有另外要求期限者則其鎖定"},{"start":12678.686,"end":12699.696,"text":"委員王鴻薇、楊崇英委員所提的書面執行．那今已列入記錄、刊登公報．並請中央銀行以書面答覆。本次會議議程已進行完畢．若是有不在場的委員補提書面的執行．一併列入記錄、刊登公報．並請議事人員協助處理。散會。"},{"start":12725.93,"end":12750.708,"text":"響鐘。響鐘。"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}