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請葉主委請國務卿 葉主委委員長"},{"start":19.711,"end":35.285,"text":"主委最近我們台灣的經濟實力展現的非常的強勁而且有韌性但是我們看到所有社會的世界各國裡面大概都集中在AI晶片的需求"},{"start":35.945,"end":43.689,"text":"所以我們整個推升了半導體供應鏈的出口成長所以在2025年的時候我們國際對於我們國家的經濟成長率的已經高達的8.68%在我們的人均國內的生產毛額這個部分的話也來到了37,830元的這個美元所以我們首度看到我們有超越了日本跟韓國尤其是我們主要"},{"start":62.819,"end":83.207,"text":"的這個成長都是集中在這個AI的部分那我們希望我們看到經濟成長的當下我們對於我們人口結構這部分我們也要關注但是少手化情形是越來越嚴重在我們2025年的經濟成長這麼高的情況下已經15年新高了但是我們看到我們的"},{"start":85.047,"end":108.615,"text":"這個少子化的情形 已經61個月都一直在下降出生率都低於這個死亡率所以請問一下國防會對這方面有沒有在檢視或者在評估就人口推估這個部分來講我們今年還會再做一次因為沒兩年我們會做人口的那個推估那因為上一次做推估的時候"},{"start":110.356,"end":126.879,"text":"那個估計值有點相對的比較樂觀一些啦所以造成那個差距有比較大那我們今年再做一次的話會相對的改善一些推估的一些方法然後讓那個整個少子化的關鍵問題在哪裡你知道嗎就是不昏不生嘛"},{"start":128.131,"end":148.84,"text":"年輕人不婚的原因第一個當然是不婚不生的原因造成不婚不生的原因第一個是職場有沒有友善以及經濟壓力啦還有就是說整個譬如說像價值觀的一些還沒有辦法很快的能夠轉變譬如說像男性"},{"start":150.46,"end":159.385,"text":"我們看到亮眼的成績都在AI跟半導體將台灣的勞動力八成都在這個製造業跟服務業所以這薪資停滯跟帶來整個我們工作環境的狀況所以看會推升了整個物價房價跟養育的成本這就是最關鍵的問題所以房價也是居高的問題所以你要怕養不起小孩所以不生不養的問題"},{"start":176.434,"end":200.173,"text":"才會造就出來所以現在你們的推估裡面就是說在2021年連續61個月出生率都低於這個死亡率在2025年你們這出生人口你們本來推估到12萬後來出生人口變成是10萬7812人很多的專家學者都說今年也許會跌破9萬人您的看法呢"},{"start":203.482,"end":221.173,"text":"是不是會跌破9萬我們看但我們盡量就是說從最壞的情境去假設這個人口的狀況你也說了你們之前的評估可能太過於樂觀那這樣子你們還是說會推估的這整個假設的情境跟統計的這個模型是不是已經過時了"},{"start":222.054,"end":224.575,"text":"我們這個部分會在這一次的時候做適當的改善看看你們這個情境 假設的情境是不是太過於樂觀因為我一直在跟你強調 房價 物價 養育成本這你要注意的 好不好"},{"start":238.2,"end":252.473,"text":"那所以說在你人口推估的報告裡面這50年的人口結構的變化裡面你們推估出來的結果是這樣子的話你們在整體的報告裡面今年的推估報告會再延後嗎"},{"start":254.335,"end":273.651,"text":"之前你們延後了,那今年是兩年一次嗎?今年會再延後嗎?8月就會出來,要如期出來那所有剛剛提到的重點你們也要好好的去檢視一番但這一邊也跟那個委員大概分享一下就是說其實我們在做推估的時候其實還有另外一個重點是我們大部分是看長期的"},{"start":274.111,"end":282.595,"text":"像這種短期的波動的話我們也會考慮進來但不會說是短期沒有改善長期也看不出來對這個會有一些因果關係是沒有錯這個數據才會標準嘛你們當然是看50年的啦但是你這每兩年去推估的話才會適時的改進你們評估的方向有錯的地方才會做修正我們會滾動式調整"},{"start":295.2,"end":309.009,"text":"另外一個就是說從長期的角趨勢去看的話比較能夠擬定比較合適的一些人口政策因為長期長期的趨勢假如說比較能夠掌握的話那人口政策的推估的話會比較能夠確實這樣子"},{"start":310.43,"end":327.447,"text":"是 所以本席也提醒你的最重要的關鍵問題所以你們的一定要把放進去做個評估的標準尤其是物價房價現在很多是房子你要選擇房子還選擇孩子這二選一耶已經到達這種程度了所以不昏不生"},{"start":328.408,"end":350.932,"text":"不養這情形會越來越加劇所以主委一定要看看你們整個設定的標準模式要符合現在社會整個環境的結構 好不好好 謝謝委員那在接下來的話 本市要請教主委的問題就是說現在我們國發會在近期公布的一月份的景氣燈號已經連續兩個月都是紅燈"},{"start":354.533,"end":365.52,"text":"我們出口是能夠呈現是穩健的成長但是我們國際局勢的話不確定的因子一直在增加當中那整個美國對於這高關稅的這個一直變來變去一下32%到20%到現在的"},{"start":371.964,"end":393.791,"text":"ART還沒有簽訂他就現在推一個122條款出來現在又有301條款這些情形我想請教主委你對於現在他們在122條款跟301的話你有什麼看法122條款跟301的話其實301其實是在補足就是說美國他們先前宣稱要去"},{"start":394.511,"end":417.098,"text":"全世界柯真的那個對等關稅那個稅率他就要去滿足這樣一個東西但對我們來講的話因為我們跟美國已經有達成一個協議所以其實我們至少已經達成什麼協議就是台美的那一個ART跟那個MOU嘛就是至少我們跟美國當然還要再送國會啦送我們立法院啦但至少在談判上面來講的話"},{"start":418.737,"end":440.443,"text":"美國的那個貿易署也有說過就是說他們在實行這個301的調查的時候也會參照說有簽協議的這些國家的一些狀況這樣子所以其實某個程度來講的話我們至少在ART跟MOU這個部分來講的話我們拿到的兩個最惠國的待遇的話其實對於我們產業來講這個最惠國待遇還生效嗎"},{"start":443.064,"end":468.585,"text":"第一個就是說目前還在跟美方那一邊做協商所以還沒有簽訂嘛所以在美國高等法院這個判決之後對於之前的所有的談好的這些關稅都是無效的所以才有後面的現行的122條款的10加N122條款跟那個美國那個最高法院那個是不一樣我知道那就推翻之前的稅率要適用於122條款嘛"},{"start":468.925,"end":473.186,"text":"不過現在我們的稅率是10%加MFA所以現在又還有301你剛剛講的會對於我們這些東南亞國家16國裡面做一些調查因為就目前美國貿易署宣稱的那個301的話他有分兩部分"},{"start":486.311,"end":497.873,"text":"美國一波是要調查所謂的那一個過剩產能另外一個是強迫勞動那就強迫勞動這個部分來講其實我們在跟美國協商那一個MOU跟ART的時候其實就有談過那美方對於我們目前的執行狀況也算是我們要去關心美國會去用這個301的話最重要是看說美國跟其他國家的這個貿易逆差的有沒有繼續擴大繼續擴大的話他可能就是有一些要保護他們政策所以"},{"start":517.042,"end":524.992,"text":"國發會你們相關的就是你們負責的就是我所有資源的分配跟所有各部會的協調所以你要好好的去做個協調的工作讓我們的關稅能夠穩定讓產業能夠永續發展好不好好沒問題謝謝謝謝李玉琳委員謝謝國會主席"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}