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我們就討論針對政協會陸委會在今天特別召開了一個記者會強調將採取必要作為守護中華民國守護台灣的自由民主請問一下陸委會所謂的必要作為是什麼那政協會後有發現鄭主席有任何進行違法亂紀的施政嗎"},{"start":50.748,"end":77.245,"text":"你說明一下我們所說的必要作為其實是針對鄭主席那天他在正席會的時候所提出來的也就是說他要建立一個兩岸的和平框架要建立 要把這個兩岸和平的制度化然後讓這個成為一個不可逆的過程"},{"start":79.195,"end":102.7,"text":"那這些訴求在政府方面看來它很可能已經觸及到我們兩岸關係條例的一些規定也就是說如果沒有政府授權的話任何機關團體不得和對岸涉及政治性內容的合作行為"},{"start":104.045,"end":130.727,"text":"然後如果沒有政府授權的話也不得簽署涉及公權力或者和政治議題有關的協議那因為我們並不確定鄭主席他講這些話到底只是單方的意願表達還是實質上會有一些什麼作為所以我們這天在新聞稿裡面講的是如果"},{"start":136.024,"end":141.509,"text":"這個國民黨方面他觸及到兩岸關係條例的一些"},{"start":143.137,"end":165.891,"text":"禁地的話所以政府就會採取必要的措施但是目前看起來目前看起來鄭主席講的抱歉我先打斷你的話我想是你們陸委會先劃靶再來設建的那我想今天我們講一個很實際的畫面我們兩岸是不是要和平當然要和平"},{"start":166.431,"end":189.114,"text":"我們不要跟以色列跟烏克蘭一樣的一個角色台灣是需要什麼是一個共榮共和共平和平的一個制度裡面來生活下去的我們不挑釁也不挑戰那當然我們也希望對岸對我們台灣也是一個善意和平共"},{"start":189.795,"end":211.729,"text":"共處的一個兩國之間的一個相處所以本席看到民進黨在政府對於維護兩岸的和平毫無進步毫無作為但又見不得其他人促進兩岸和平只好對台灣人民進行了任職作戰那用暗示的方式"},{"start":212.509,"end":238.229,"text":"抹紅扣帽子這麼多年來始終拿不出國民黨賣台的證據倒是民進黨的核心出了不少的共諜上次我們在這個地方也提出很多共諜案的民進黨的這一些黨員所以副主委根據陸委會的新聞告國共兩黨主席會面將兩岸的關係國共化一中框架化"},{"start":238.829,"end":267.779,"text":"那請問一下ECFA是不是在一中政治前提下談的你來回答我這個問題ECFA就是兩岸之間的關於經貿方面的協議在我方的認知ECFA的談判跟什麼一中立場或九二共識是沒有關係的怎麼會沒有關係但是在中共他現在是咬定說他現在是咬定說跟在九二共識下才有怎麼會你副主委會講這種話呢既然我現在要講一句話"},{"start":268.539,"end":288.627,"text":"第二陸委會應該在政治歷史當年兩岸如果沒有共同的政治基礎根本就不可能簽署ECFA那這個政治基礎在大陸叫做一中原則在台灣是叫做一中各表這就是一個政治基礎這也是政治的前提啊"},{"start":289.187,"end":313.888,"text":"那陸委會是不是認為只要在大陸認為一中架構下兩岸互動就是將兩岸關係一中化如果這樣的話是不是只要涉及中共領導人的會面就構成國共化與一中化就按照陸委會的邏輯民進黨從蔡英文到賴清德持續適用的F法"},{"start":314.588,"end":341.582,"text":"是否也是在原系一中的框架那現在的事實就是民進黨執政在在野黨的兩套標準一邊罵一邊享受既然X法可以在一中正直的前提下被視為禁貿那為何民間與政黨交流就一定被定為一中框架內會要不要建議總統和行政院就立即的終止X法"},{"start":342.162,"end":370.256,"text":"不管陸委會打不打算建議即將終止ECFAECFA在民進黨執政那已延續了十年了代表民進黨政府默認該框架在特定情況下可享受這樣的一個邏輯和民進黨對國人的認知作戰模式民進黨就是台灣最大的賣台的一個集團所以你要解釋ECFA"},{"start":371.799,"end":376.675,"text":"是經貿的框架還是在意義中的框架下你來回答我這個問題"},{"start":377.935,"end":402.619,"text":"在我們政府認為ECFA當初是純粹談經貿議題但是中共的解釋是說是我們在一中的框架之下所以我們才給你ECFA才給你什麼34項農產品的免關稅等等然後只要你一偏離我就立刻把你取消所以剛剛委員講的都是對方的立場這個和台灣的立場是不同的"},{"start":402.619,"end":419.416,"text":"但是你們在賴政府在英文這個賴政府已經延續了十年啊到至今都在延續十年啊如果這樣的話如果這個剛剛你所說明的那你就宣布嘛終止ECFA"},{"start":420.698,"end":439.473,"text":"忠實ECFA進行我們現在的這個ECFA的會議嘛委員我跟您報告在我們看起來ECFA跟一中框架一中前提是沒有關係的所以我們沒有我們沒有必要去宣布什麼廢止反而但是他們認為這個是很有關係的他們認為這個是前提所以他們常常找麻煩"},{"start":444.697,"end":450.727,"text":"好不好 不要再說謊了不要再 不要再對進行人民的認知作善不要再說謊好不好 請回那有請國安局"},{"start":462.199,"end":483.738,"text":"好 謝主席 歡迎回頭好 主席好 本席注意到國安局近年來向中共的政經情勢原判都指出中共正面臨國內外壓力政治風險上升的一個狀況以官民矛盾不斷的一個加劇那所以我們都知道一個極權政權"},{"start":485.76,"end":498.216,"text":"最主要的工作之一就是依賴高經濟發展的維持掙錢的一個合法性在國安局看來中共似乎浮現治理的一個危機那局長認為對我們這個是正面的訊息還是一個機會"},{"start":504.873,"end":518.408,"text":"跟委員做個說明跟報告確實委員引用的數據我們在上個禮拜的業務報告有特別去提醒中國大陸目前正面臨到一些治理的風險不管是在政治面進行一些黨政要員的調查、訴談"},{"start":519.89,"end":547.009,"text":"或是在社會面那民眾因為經濟的下滑而有一些對現狀的不滿以及在經濟的數據面即使中共的經濟數據它經過美化但是我們收整各方面的資料跟評估可以發現到它現在經濟動能真的是在弱化包括國內的消費力還有外資的投資的狀況確實是處在比較低檔的狀況那就國安局的角度那我們覺得應該在跟貴院的議務報告當中把這樣的一個趨勢做一個呈現那也做一個警示"},{"start":547.884,"end":571.652,"text":"所以本身認為在其實中共面臨的內外的壓力對台灣而言反而是更危險國際政治上有一個非常典型的一個理論那叫做轉移性的一個衝突那意思是當一個國家政府或領導人面臨嚴重的國內的困境的話那政權穩定受到威脅的時候他們可能會"},{"start":572.492,"end":589.309,"text":"故意挑起或升起其他國家的外部的一個衝擊所以以轉移國內民眾的注意力那並製造這個團結的效應所以這是一個政治的一個求生的策略那最近中共經濟的這個"},{"start":592.264,"end":616.238,"text":"在近年來的一個經濟的下行下滑房地產與地方債權的問題嚴重外部又面臨美中競爭和科技封鎖的壓力這種情況中共反而更可能強化民族主義動員換句話說台灣的風險是不是下降是不是不穩定性的一個既然都會上升"},{"start":617.395,"end":644.651,"text":"對 謝委員剛剛的一個分析跟提醒那確實我們在注意中共的內部風險我們比較關注的也是這些議題會不會外溢到對台海安全有產生一些影響跟衝擊那尤其中共在歷史上也確實曾經在內部發生政治經濟社會不穩定的時候對外用兵這包括到有1969年的中俄邊界衝突就是在文革之後那1979年的中越邊界衝突又是在四個電現代化失敗之後"},{"start":645.091,"end":672.689,"text":"所以對於他現在內部的這種情勢那會不會有委員所提到的民族主義的操作我們會持續的注意那也是在上禮拜報告的時候我們特別去注意到中共的軍文關係因為這一次的大批的整肅涉及到很多上將33個員額現在只有4位上將在位那這樣子的一個軍文關係會不會有台海安全的意涵包括有些年輕的將領會不會為了要表示效忠而有在台海的相關演訓活動有更冒進的作為"},{"start":675.111,"end":692.75,"text":"好,在最後請問一下局長,國安局有沒有設定具體的一個風險的一個標準型,例如當中共經濟壓力到達什麼樣的一個程度,它會採取什麼樣的一個程度,在對軍事的行動,有沒有?"},{"start":692.97,"end":722.29,"text":"有 這部分我們確實有一個還蠻複雜的一個風險評估指標那不只是中共內部的政治經濟社會的形態還有包括他的對外關係以及他涉台政策的相關的一個動向還有各種的軍事活動以及在台海的複合式威脅的侵擾那我們有一個加總的一個分析的一個指標那來當成我們的一個風險判斷的模型那這部分假如委員有興趣對我們私下再跟委員做一些細部的說明好 謝謝好 謝謝委員指教"},{"start":723.436,"end":723.457,"text":"好 謝謝"}],"gazette":[{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:07:27.030000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:07:30.212000+08:00","text":"謝謝主席，有請陸委會副主委。","quality":0.917},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:07:46.504000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:07:46.764000+08:00","text":"委員好。","quality":1},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:07:47.674000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:07:47.974000+08:00","text":"副主委好。","quality":0.75},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:07:50.116000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:08:02.063000+08:00","text":"針對鄭習會，陸委會在今天特別召開了一個記者會，強調將採取必要作為守護中華民國、守護臺灣的自由民主。","quality":0.956},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:08:03.263000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:08:06.946000+08:00","text":"請問陸委會，所謂的必要作為是什麼？","quality":1},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:08:07.286000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:08:15.391000+08:00","text":"鄭習會後有發現鄭主席有任何違法亂紀的事證嗎？","quality":0.81},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:08:16.748000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:08:17.228000+08:00","text":"請你說明一下。","quality":0.833},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:08:18.449000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:08:43.225000+08:00","text":"我們所說的必要作為，其實是針對鄭主席那天在鄭習會時候所提出來的，也就是說，他要建立一個兩岸的和平框架，要把兩岸和平制度化，然後讓這個成為一個不可逆的過程。","quality":0.972},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:08:45.755000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:09:18.892000+08:00","text":"這些訴求在政府方面看來，很可能已經觸及到我們兩岸關係條例的一些規定，也就是說，如果沒有政府授權的話，任何機關、團體不得和對岸涉及政治性內容的合作行為，如果沒有政府授權的話，也不得簽署涉及公權力或者和政治議題有關的協議。","quality":1},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:09:19.713000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:09:53.900000+08:00","text":"因為我們並不確定鄭主席所講的這些話到底只是單方的意願表達，還是實質上會有一些什麼作為，所以我們那天在新聞稿裡面講的是，如果國民黨方面觸及到兩岸關係條例的一些禁地的話，那麼政府就會採取必要的措施。","quality":0.946},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:09:54.560000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:09:58.002000+08:00","text":"但是目前看起來，鄭主席講的是……","quality":0.923},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:09:58.203000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:10:04.206000+08:00","text":"抱歉，我打斷你的話，我想是你們陸委會先畫靶再來射箭。","quality":0.87},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:10:06.127000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:10:10.670000+08:00","text":"今天我們講一個很實際的畫面，我們兩岸是不是要和平？","quality":1},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:10:11.330000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:10:19.058000+08:00","text":"當然要和平，我們不要跟以色列跟烏克蘭一樣的角色，臺灣需要的是什麼？","quality":0.933},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:10:19.198000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:10:29.208000+08:00","text":"要在一個共榮、和平的制度下來生活，我們不挑釁，也不挑戰。","quality":0.875},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:10:29.888000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:11:16.483000+08:00","text":"當然，我們也希望對岸對我們臺灣是以善意、和平共處來作為兩國之間的相處，所以本席看到民進黨政府對於維護兩岸和平毫無進步、毫無作為，但是又見不得其他人促進兩岸和平，只好對臺灣人民進行認知作戰，用暗示的方式抹紅、扣帽子，這麼多年來始終拿不出國民黨賣臺的證據，倒是民進黨的核心出了不少的共諜，上次我們在這個地方也提出很多涉及共諜案的是民進黨的黨員。","quality":0.937},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:11:16.743000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:11:28.550000+08:00","text":"副主委，根據陸委會的新聞稿，國共兩黨主席會面，將兩岸的關係國共化、一中框架化，請問一下ECFA是不是在一中政治前提下談的？","quality":0.982},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:11:29.451000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:11:29.931000+08:00","text":"請回答我這個問題。","quality":0.875},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:11:29.931000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:11:43.315000+08:00","text":"ECFA就是兩岸之間關於經貿方面的協議，在我方的認知，ECFA的談判跟什麼一中立場或九二共識是沒有關係的，但是……","quality":0.962},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:11:43.875000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:11:44.516000+08:00","text":"怎麼會沒有關係？","quality":1},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:11:44.516000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:11:45.296000+08:00","text":"但是中共現在是咬定說……","quality":0.4},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:11:45.296000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-04-13T11:11:46.296000+08:00","text":"怎麼會沒有關係？","quality":0},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:11:45.776000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:11:49.917000+08:00","text":"他現在是咬定說是在九二共識下……","quality":1},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:11:50.338000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:11:52.158000+08:00","text":"現在我來回答你是什麼關係，怎麼你副主委會講這種話呢？","quality":0.5},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:11:53.099000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:12:14.607000+08:00","text":"我現在要講一句話，第一個，陸委會應該正視歷史，當年兩岸如果沒有共同的政治基礎，根本就不可能簽署ECFA，這個政治基礎在大陸叫做一中原則，在臺灣叫做一中各表，這就是一個政治基礎，這也是政治的前提啊！","quality":0.955},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:12:15.547000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:12:23.034000+08:00","text":"陸委會是不是認為，只要是在大陸認為的一中架構下進行兩岸互動，就是將兩岸關係一中化？","quality":0.895},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:12:23.654000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:12:31.521000+08:00","text":"如果這樣的話，是不是只要涉及與中共領導人的會面就構成國共化與一中化？","quality":0.969},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:12:32.521000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:12:43.129000+08:00","text":"按照陸委會的邏輯，民進黨從蔡英文到賴清德持續適用ECFA，是否也是在延續一中框架？","quality":0.868},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:12:44.270000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:12:50.093000+08:00","text":"現在的事實就是民進黨執政、在野是兩套標準，一邊罵一邊享受。","quality":0.962},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:12:50.733000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:13:00.598000+08:00","text":"既然ECFA可以在一中政治的前提下被視為經貿，為何民間與政黨交流就一定被定義為一中框架？","quality":0.81},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:13:01.679000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:13:07.021000+08:00","text":"陸委會要不要建議總統和行政院立即終止ECFA？","quality":0.727},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:13:08.162000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:13:24.230000+08:00","text":"不管陸委會打不打算建議終止ECFA，ECFA在民進黨執政已延續十年了，代表民進黨政府默認該框架在特定情況下可享受。","quality":1},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:13:25.531000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:13:41.752000+08:00","text":"這樣的一個邏輯和民進黨對國人的認知作戰模式，民進黨就是臺灣最大的賣臺集團，所以你要解釋ECFA是建立在經貿框架還是在一中框架之下。","quality":0.919},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:13:42.214000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:13:42.675000+08:00","text":"請你回答我這個問題。","quality":0.889},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:13:44.115000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:01.372000+08:00","text":"我們政府認為ECFA當初是純粹談經貿議題，但是中共的解釋是說：是在一中的框架之下，所以我們才給你ECFA、才給你什麼34項農產品免關稅等等，只要你一偏離，我就立刻把你取消。","quality":1},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:02.113000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:08.599000+08:00","text":"所以剛剛委員講的都是對方的立場，這個和臺灣的立場是不同的。","quality":1},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:08.619000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:31.321000+08:00","text":"但是你們從蔡英文到賴政府已經延續十年了、至今延續十年了，如果誠如剛剛你所說明的，那你就宣布終止ECFA、終止ECFA，進行我們現在的這個ECFA的會議嘛！","quality":0.887},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:32.162000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:39.008000+08:00","text":"委員，我跟你報告，在我們看起來，ECFA跟一中框架、一中前提是沒有關係的，所以我們……","quality":0.972},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:39.008000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:40.008000+08:00","text":"怎麼會沒有關係？","quality":0.286},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:39.388000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:43.852000+08:00","text":"我們沒有必要去宣布什麼廢止，但是他們認為這是很有關係的。","quality":1},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:43.852000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:44.852000+08:00","text":"怎麼會沒有必要關係？本來……","quality":0},{"speaker":"梁副主任委員文傑","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:43.932000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:45.473000+08:00","text":"他們認為這個是前提，所以他們常常找麻煩。","quality":1},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:45.473000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:51.058000+08:00","text":"你們一直延續適用到現在已經十年了嘛！","quality":0},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:51.058000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:51.859000+08:00","text":"不要再說謊了！","quality":1},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:52.360000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:56.427000+08:00","text":"不要再對人民進行認知作戰，不要再說謊，好不好？請回。","quality":0.864},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:14:56.687000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:14:56.707000+08:00","text":"接下來請國安局。","quality":0.571},{"speaker":"蔡局長明彥","start":"2026-04-13T11:15:08.579000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:15:09.160000+08:00","text":"謝謝主席，黃委員好。","quality":0.5},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:15:10.801000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:15:10.801000+08:00","text":"局長好。","quality":0.333},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:15:11.162000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:15:28.197000+08:00","text":"本席注意到國安局近年來對中共的政經情勢研判，都指出中共正面臨國內、外壓力，治理風險上升的狀況，官民矛盾也不斷加劇。","quality":0.923},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:15:28.798000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:15:37.407000+08:00","text":"我們都知道，一個極權政權最主要的工作之一，就是依賴高經濟發展來維持政權的合法性。","quality":0.919},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:15:38.028000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:15:44.216000+08:00","text":"在國安局看來，中共似乎浮現治理的危機，局長認為這個對我們來說是正面訊息或機會嗎？","quality":0.838},{"speaker":"蔡局長明彥","start":"2026-04-13T11:15:50.873000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:16:25.784000+08:00","text":"跟委員做個說明跟報告，確實委員引用的數據，我們在上個禮拜的業務報告有特別提醒，中國大陸目前正面臨一些治理的風險，不管是在政治面進行一些黨政要員的調查、肅貪，或是在社會面民眾因為經濟下滑而有一些對現狀的不滿，以及在經濟的數據面，即使中共的經濟數據經過美化，但是我們蒐整各方面的資料跟評估，可以發現到他現在的經濟動能真的是在弱化，包括國內的消費力及外資的投資狀況，確實是處在比較低檔的狀況。","quality":0.967},{"speaker":"蔡局長明彥","start":"2026-04-13T11:16:25.924000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:16:32.989000+08:00","text":"就國安局的角度，我們覺得應該在跟貴院的業務報告當中呈現這樣的趨勢，也做一個警示。","quality":0.919},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:16:34.164000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:17:13.427000+08:00","text":"本席認為中共面臨的內外壓力對臺灣而言反而更危險，國際政治上有一個非常典型的理論叫做轉移性衝突，意思是當一個國家政府或領導人面臨嚴重的國內困境，政權穩定受到威脅的時候，他們可能會故意挑起或升起對其他國家的外部衝擊，以轉移國內民眾的注意力，並製造團結的效應，這是一個政治求生策略。","quality":0.985},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:17:14.869000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:17:42.218000+08:00","text":"中共近年來因經濟的下滑，房地產與地方債權的問題嚴重，外部又面臨美中競爭和科技封鎖的壓力，在這種情況下，中共反而更可能強化民族主義動員，換句話說，臺灣的風險、不穩定性近來是不是會上升？","quality":0.867},{"speaker":"蔡局長明彥","start":"2026-04-13T11:17:43.395000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:17:54.282000+08:00","text":"謝謝委員剛剛的分析跟提醒，確實，我們在注意中共的內部風險，我們比較關注的也是這些議題會不會外溢到對臺海安全產生一些影響跟衝擊。","quality":0.983},{"speaker":"蔡局長明彥","start":"2026-04-13T11:17:54.422000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:18:16.415000+08:00","text":"尤其中共在歷史上也確實曾經在內部發生政治、經濟、社會不穩定的時候對外用兵，包括1969年的中俄邊界衝突就是在文革之後，1979的中越邊界衝突又是在四個現代化失敗之後，所以對於他們現在內部的這種情勢，會不會有委員所提到的民族主義的操作，我們會持續注意。","quality":0.991},{"speaker":"蔡局長明彥","start":"2026-04-13T11:18:17.115000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:18:38.689000+08:00","text":"在上禮拜報告的時候，我們特別注意到中共的軍文關係，因為這一次的大批整肅涉及到很多上將，33個員額現在只有4位上將在位，這樣的一個軍文關係會不會有臺海安全的意涵，包括有些年輕的將領會不會為了要表示效忠，在臺海的相關演訓活動有更冒進的作為，這部分我們再持續關注。","quality":0.915},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:18:41.912000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:18:48.159000+08:00","text":"最後請問一下局長，國安局有沒有設定具體的風險指標模型？","quality":0.92},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:18:48.539000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:18:58.369000+08:00","text":"例如當中共經濟壓力到達什麼樣的程度，會採取什麼樣程度的軍事行動？","quality":0.967},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:18:58.369000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:18:58.730000+08:00","text":"有沒有？","quality":1},{"speaker":"蔡局長明彥","start":"2026-04-13T11:18:58.970000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:19:26.428000+08:00","text":"有，這部分我們確實有一個還滿複雜的風險評估指標，不只是中共內部的政治、經濟、社會的型態，還有包括他的對外關係以及涉臺政策的相關動向，還有各種軍事活動，以及在臺海複合式威脅的侵擾，我們有一個加總的分析指標來當成我們的風險判斷模型，這個部分假如委員有興趣，我們私下再跟委員做一些細部的說明。","quality":0.977},{"speaker":"黃委員仁","start":"2026-04-13T11:19:26.709000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:19:27.709000+08:00","text":"好，謝謝。","quality":1},{"speaker":"蔡局長明彥","start":"2026-04-13T11:19:28.009000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-04-13T11:19:28.270000+08:00","text":"謝謝委員指教。","quality":1},{"speaker":"主席（陳委員永康代）","start":"2026-04-13T11:19:28.770000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-04-13T11:19:31.341429+08:00","text":"謝謝黃仁委員的發言。","quality":0.222},{"speaker":"主席（陳委員永康代）","start":"2026-04-13T11:19:31.641429+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-04-13T11:19:34.784286+08:00","text":"接下來請馬文君委員質詢。","quality":0}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}