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對那本來大家就是期望說是不是"},{"start":141.311,"end":165.563,"text":"有可能因為川普的意見他是想要降低利率因為美國國債那麼多他利率那麼高他還這個利率對他來講是一個非常大的負擔對美國財政來講是非常不利所以他長期來講當然希望降低利率可是跟現實的狀況是會有一些距離第一個衝突沒有結束這個"},{"start":168.359,"end":194.598,"text":"很有趣啊我也聽川普自己在推特上面講自己在社群上面講說非農就業增加那麼多代表美國的經濟很強勁這當然是上個月的事這個月非農就業是不如預期的那經濟強勁你們說也要升息經濟不行你們也要升息所以這個是"},{"start":196.658,"end":201.803,"text":"是不是會有一點矛盾在美國要怎麼樣做他才有比較有機會能夠降息美國呢會在於就是說他的勞動市場確實就像委員說的就是說他的那個非農就業的這個情況也就是說他的勞動市場也就是說他的勞動市場確實是已經是Drop的很厲害"},{"start":222.782,"end":247.843,"text":"但是看起來好像他是好不好一點點然後又是好所以就是說就像剛剛委員在講事實上美國的經濟啊以目前來跟其他的先進國家來比較的話美國金是最好的金是最好的那問題是美國的利率降不下來一直會是高利率就會造成美國的過度美元的過度強勢你看最近美元是超級強勢"},{"start":249.144,"end":268.681,"text":"除了中國這個外匯管制國家那個部分之外其他的主要貨幣對美元都是貶值的那原因就是你美元的利率那麼高錢有一個特徵錢會往獲利高的地方去水往低處流錢往獲利高的地方去你想想看"},{"start":269.946,"end":297.383,"text":"大家說為什麼日幣會越來越弱因為就算日本央行升息它的利率才有一%而已啊那美國的話3%多 將近4%那如果日本的貸款是容易的話從日本貸款換成美元去美國投資還可以賺利率先不管匯差的問題那何況看起來美元繼續強勢那匯差反而還會賺雙重賺 不會只有賺利率所以這是會導致美元很過度強勢"},{"start":298.524,"end":316.194,"text":"那這個美元一直過度強勢喔對台灣到底是好還是不好 你的看法美元強勢的話 基本上因為美元雖然是強勢 沒有錯啦就是說它的利率也比較高啦不過呢 我總覺得我們台灣的經濟也很好啦"},{"start":316.914,"end":320.116,"text":"我們台灣的經濟也很好基本上你看看我們的出口經濟成長率那麼高出口也非常好我們的物價也控制得好所以基本上這些基本條件可以作為抵擋美元強勢的一個情況"},{"start":336.011,"end":347.662,"text":"對 但是當然我們如果台灣的錢我們如果比較不好的名字叫熱錢啦也跑到美國去那也想要賺他的利率想要賺他的匯率那這會導致這個"},{"start":350.936,"end":376.527,"text":"外匯的增加就是流到美元區去那這個當然會導致台幣的貶值那台幣的貶值對台灣來講有利有弊啊利的是出口的時候我的這個報價的時候是跟人家覺得說你就是比以前便宜啦當然這個是比較因為別的國家韓國還有其他國家搞不好就更便宜因為他們貶的更多但是你台灣受不了強勢啊因為強勢的話我們的我們是一個"},{"start":379.696,"end":394.944,"text":"出口導向的國家我們其實需要做很多的外貿所以也不能過度強勢當然現在美元是強勢可是我們在其他貨幣裡面相對的台幣還是比其他貨幣貶的要少就是總裁你剛剛講因為我們這邊的各種好的條件這樣長期累積下來對我們的製造業會有什麼樣的影響"},{"start":402.408,"end":427.682,"text":"我想就是說基本上我們比較不擔心說美元強勢就是說它利率高基本上我們的外匯我們的廠商的外匯的供需基本上它是比較平衡我的意思就是說我們自己的廠商是比較平衡倒是外資的供需比較不平衡"},{"start":428.972,"end":451.678,"text":"外資的這個部分特別是外資的這個部分第一個它有股率的時候它那個股率也蠻大的都是由它分配的所以我們稍微就是比較我們匯率的一個波動主要我個人是覺得是外資的進出比較能夠影響到我們的匯率"},{"start":452.378,"end":474.051,"text":"倒是我們本身的廠商呢不會就說是因為美國的利率高然後大家出去啦不是製造業的問題是資本市場的問題資本市場的問題錢跑來跑去是是是主要的還是資本市場因為美國最近有很多大公司他在證券市場在籌資像譬如說過去SPEX現在未來幾間大公司"},{"start":475.592,"end":499.74,"text":"要去預購那個股票的時候就要先鎖定資金因為鎖都鎖很大甚至鎖到幾千億美金那金額是非常大所以他從整個亞洲股是抽了很多美元美金回去美國所以是這幾天我們的成交量也好我們的動能稍微有不足的狀況所以但是央行在面對這樣的狀況的時候"},{"start":501.482,"end":512.654,"text":"如果它過度流動你又必須稍微你剛剛前面委員講的那個流資效應你也會稍微要干預一點要調節一下流動性要調節用調節這個名詞是比較好問題是你在調節的時候你要注意到"},{"start":518.641,"end":537.956,"text":"如何讓美國能夠了解因為他一直在注意我們還是一個外匯管制的問題事實上我跟委員報告第一個我們是管理沒有管制事實上資金外資要進出進出都相當第二點第二"},{"start":541.479,"end":554.236,"text":"講到那個委員講到美國的財政部啊我跟委員報告事實上呢我們跟美國財政部溝通非常良好他們了解就是說我們在市場的一個市場的那個調節的情況呢他們都"},{"start":557.02,"end":585.411,"text":"他們都非常了解而且我們對他也非常坦白我們也不會就是說隱瞞什麼事情不會包括就是說我們這一季我們干預多少我們都公佈啊我們都公佈那個數據啊都是千真萬確的所以他對我們呢也是相當相當信任的兩個國家之間對於這個外匯這個來往這個有這樣子的信任跟事實都非常重要這很重要啦因為我們受不了被美國"},{"start":587.312,"end":609.507,"text":"當然這個機會非常的小但是我們因為有很努力在做這個工作溝通的工作要持續我到現在還是一直我的觀點是央行對台灣最重要就是要穩定物價那當然穩定物價就跟利率跟匯率都有關係那這個大家很努力啦謝謝你我覺得央行工作做得很好謝謝謝謝委員的鼓勵支持謝謝我們"}],"gazette":[{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:18:01+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:18:05.410500+08:00","text":"主席，麻煩請央行楊總裁。","quality":0},{"speaker":"主席","start":"2026-07-09T09:18:05.410500+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:18:09.821000+08:00","text":"請楊總裁。","quality":0},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:18:09.821000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:18:14.231500+08:00","text":"吳委員早。","quality":0},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:18:14.231500+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:18:18.642000+08:00","text":"總裁早。","quality":0},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:18:18.642000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:18:35.981000+08:00","text":"本來大家都認為美伊是不是確認達成和平談判，結果伊朗又對荷姆茲海峽的通行船隻發射飛彈，所以又引起兩個之間的衝突，這是這一、兩天的最新變化，你認為這個變化會有什麼影響？","quality":0.895},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:18:42.224000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:19:00.619000+08:00","text":"這個會對市場有所影響，本來市場是在慢慢的calm down下來，但是看起來好像雙方之間的默契還不是非常堅固，偶爾還會有小衝突，所以布蘭特原油現貨價格本來已經跌到像我們報告裡面講的，跟戰爭之前的價格都一樣……","quality":0.811},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:19:00.619000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:19:01.619000+08:00","text":"72塊，都一樣。","quality":0},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:19:00.659000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:19:34.291000+08:00","text":"都一樣，這一、兩天又稍微反彈回來，不過這種uncertainty（不確定性），市場還是會price in、會考慮進去，也就是還是值得去密切關注。","quality":0.855},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:19:36.213000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:20:09.508000+08:00","text":"我個人的觀點，我認為伊朗這個國家內部對於和談還有很嚴重的分歧，可能鴿派的願意和談，鷹派的在和談中還會想辦法動用手上可以運用的武力，對這個和談也會有破壞的效果，所以伊朗本身內部可能意見沒有很一致，產生這個結果就使得動盪的時間可能會延長，所以不確定性就會再增加。","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:20:09.708000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:20:13.311000+08:00","text":"是，委員分析得很好。","quality":0.75},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:20:13.971000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:20:44.462000+08:00","text":"現在美國新的聯準會主席華許上臺之後，本來大家期望是不是有可能降息，川普的意見是想要降低利率，因為美國國債那麼多、利率那麼高，對他來講光是還利息就已經是非常大的負擔、對美國財政來講是非常不利的，所以長期來講他當然希望降低利率，可是跟現實的狀況會有一些距離。","quality":0.881},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:20:44.462000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:21:08.813000+08:00","text":"第一個是衝突沒有結束，其實這個很有趣，我也聽到川普自己在推特等社群媒體上面講說非農就業增加那麼多，代表美國的經濟很強勁，這當然是上個月的事，這個月非農就業是不如預期。是。","quality":0.897},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:21:10.854000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:21:18.739000+08:00","text":"經濟強勁他們說要升息，經濟不行他們也要升息，這個是不是有一點矛盾？","quality":0.933},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:21:19.300000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:21:19.860000+08:00","text":"究竟美國在怎麼樣的狀況下才比較有機會能夠降息？","quality":0.682},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:21:19.940000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:21:57.474000+08:00","text":"美國的勞動市場確實就像委員說的與非農就業情況有關，他的勞動市場確實已經dropped很厲害，但是看起來好像是好、不好一點點，然後又是好，就像剛剛委員所講的，事實上，以目前的美國經濟跟其他先進國家來比較的話，美國的經濟幾乎是最好的。","quality":0.821},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:21:59.755000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:22:16.690000+08:00","text":"問題是美國的利率降不下來，一直維持高利率就會造成美元的過度強勢，你看最近美元實在超級強勢，除了中國這個外匯管制國家我們不論之外，其他的主要貨幣對美元都是貶值的嘛！對。","quality":0.87},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:22:18.591000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:22:28.660000+08:00","text":"原因就在於美元的利率那麼高，錢有一個特徵就是錢會往獲利高的地方去，所謂水往低處流、錢往獲利高的地方去。","quality":0.872},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:22:28.660000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:22:29.660000+08:00","text":"對，沒有錯。","quality":0},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:22:29.160000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:22:33.508000+08:00","text":"你想想看，為什麼日幣會越來越弱？","quality":1},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:22:33.788000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:22:58.383000+08:00","text":"因為就算日本央行升息，它的利率也才1%而已，美國都還有將近4%，如果日本的貸款容易的話，先不管匯差的問題，我從日本貸款換成美元去美國投資還可以賺利率，更何況看起來美元會繼續強勢，匯差反而還會賺，這是雙重賺，不會只有賺利率，所以這會導致美元過度強勢。","quality":0.847},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:22:59.804000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:23:03.666000+08:00","text":"美元一直過度強勢對臺灣到底是好還是不好？","quality":1},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:23:03.926000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:23:04.367000+08:00","text":"你的看法如何？","quality":0.667},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:23:05.547000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:23:21.116000+08:00","text":"美元強勢的話，雖然美元是強勢沒有錯，也就是說它的利率也比較高，不過我總覺得臺灣的經濟也很好，你看看我們的經濟成長率那麼高，出口也非常好，我們的物價也控制得好，這些基本條件可以作為抵擋美元強勢的情況。","quality":0.967},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:23:37.011000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:23:56.658000+08:00","text":"對，但是如果臺灣的錢（比較不好聽的名字叫做熱錢）也跑到美國去，想要賺他的利率、想要賺他的匯率，那就會導致外匯增加，也就是流到美元區去，這當然會導致臺幣貶值。","quality":0.942},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:23:57.638000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:24:13.005000+08:00","text":"臺幣貶值對臺灣來講有利有弊，利的是在出口報價的時候，會讓人家覺得比以前便宜，當然這是比較出來的，包括韓國等其他國家搞不好更便宜，因為他們貶得更多。","quality":0.866},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:24:14.105000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:24:35.424000+08:00","text":"但是臺灣受不了強勢，因為我們是一個出口導向的國家，我們其實需要做很多的外貿，所以也不能過度強勢，當然現在美元是強勢，可是與其他貨幣相較，臺幣相對還是比其他貨幣貶得要少，就是總裁你剛剛講的，因為我們這邊有各種好的條件。","quality":0.919},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:24:35.544000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:24:35.944000+08:00","text":"這樣長期累積下來，對我們的製造業會有什麼樣的影響？","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:24:43.408000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:24:50.352000+08:00","text":"我想我們比較不擔心美元強勢，就是說它的利率高啦！","quality":0.909},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:24:51.292000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:25:21.035000+08:00","text":"基本上我們自己廠商外匯的供需是比較平衡的，倒是外資的供需比較不平衡，特別是有股利的時候，其實股利有滿大部分都是分配給它。","quality":0.786},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:25:21.035000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:25:22.535000+08:00","text":"光7月我們臺灣就要發幾千億的股利了。","quality":0.062},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:25:22.535000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:25:40.102000+08:00","text":"是，所以關於我們匯率的波動，我個人覺得主要是外資的進出比較能夠影響到我們的匯率，我們本身的廠商倒是不會因為美國的利率高，然後大家就把錢匯出去，並不是這樣。","quality":0.775},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:25:40.823000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:25:43.944000+08:00","text":"所以不是製造業的問題，而是資本市場的問題，因為錢跑來跑去。","quality":0.615},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:25:43.944000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:25:44.665000+08:00","text":"對，主要還是資本市場的問題。","quality":0.583},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:25:47.807000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:26:19.479000+08:00","text":"最近美國有很多大公司在證券市場籌資，譬如過去的SpaceX，還有未來的幾間大公司，要去預購股票的時候就要先鎖定資金，他一鎖都鎖很大，甚至鎖到幾千億美金，那個金額非常大，所以他從整個亞洲股市抽了很多美金回去美國，這也導致這幾天我們的成交量及動能稍微有不足的狀況。是。","quality":0.844},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:26:19.959000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:26:30.811000+08:00","text":"央行面對這樣的狀況，如果它過度流動，就像剛剛前面委員講的柳枝效應，你也要稍微干預一點。","quality":0.872},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:26:31.232000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:26:31.632000+08:00","text":"是，沒有錯，流動性要調節一下。","quality":0.5},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:26:31.632000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:26:32.133000+08:00","text":"要調節一下，用「調節」這個名詞是比較好。","quality":0.688},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:26:32.333000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:26:50.029000+08:00","text":"問題是你在調節的時候，也要注意到如何讓美國能夠了解，因為他們一直在注意我們是不是有外匯管制的問題。","quality":0.891},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:26:51.010000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:26:58.576000+08:00","text":"我跟委員報告，第一，我們是管理沒有管制，事實上，外資資金要進出都相當自由。","quality":0.875},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:26:58.576000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:27:36.087000+08:00","text":"第二，委員講到美國財政部，其實我們跟美國財政部溝通非常良好，對於我們市場調節的情況，他們都非常了解，而且我們對他們也非常坦白，我們不會隱瞞什麼事情，包括這一季我們干預多少我們都會公布，那個數據都是千真萬確的，所以他們對我們也是相當信任的。","quality":0.936},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:27:36.807000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:27:42.509000+08:00","text":"兩個國家之間的外匯來往有這樣子的信任和充分溝通是非常重要的。","quality":0.724},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:27:43.089000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:27:43.410000+08:00","text":"是，這非常重要。","quality":0.5},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:27:44.370000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:27:55.877000+08:00","text":"因為我們受不了被美國制裁，當然這個機會非常小，因為我們很努力在做這個工作，溝通的工作要持續啦！是。","quality":0.864},{"speaker":"吳委員秉叡","start":"2026-07-09T09:27:55.877000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:28:09.706000+08:00","text":"我一直以來的觀點，央行對臺灣而言最重要的就是要穩定物價，當然穩定物價跟利率和匯率都有關係，這部分大家都很努力，謝謝你，我覺得央行工作做得很好，繼續努力！","quality":0.812},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:28:09.926000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:28:10.487000+08:00","text":"謝謝委員的鼓勵與支持，謝謝！","quality":0.917},{"speaker":"主席","start":"2026-07-09T09:28:10.987000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:28:14.415571+08:00","text":"我們結束吳秉叡委員的質詢。","quality":0.167},{"speaker":"主席","start":"2026-07-09T09:28:14.715571+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:28:17.287000+08:00","text":"接下來請郭國文委員。","quality":0}]},"gazette":{"lineno":73,"blocks":[["吳委員秉叡：（9時18分）主席，麻煩請央行楊總裁。"],["主席：請楊總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：吳委員早。"],["吳委員秉叡：總裁早。本來大家都認為美伊是不是確認達成和平談判，結果伊朗又對荷姆茲海峽的通行船隻發射飛彈，所以又引起兩個之間的衝突，這是這一、兩天的最新變化，你認為這個變化會有什麼影響？"],["楊總裁金龍：這個會對市場有所影響，本來市場是在慢慢的calm down下來，但是看起來好像雙方之間的默契還不是非常堅固，偶爾還會有小衝突，所以布蘭特原油現貨價格本來已經跌到像我們報告裡面講的，跟戰爭之前的價格都一樣……"],["吳委員秉叡：72塊，都一樣。"],["楊總裁金龍：都一樣，這一、兩天又稍微反彈回來，不過這種uncertainty（不確定性），市場還是會price in、會考慮進去，也就是還是值得去密切關注。"],["吳委員秉叡：我個人的觀點，我認為伊朗這個國家內部對於和談還有很嚴重的分歧，可能鴿派的願意和談，鷹派的在和談中還會想辦法動用手上可以運用的武力，對這個和談也會有破壞的效果，所以伊朗本身內部可能意見沒有很一致，產生這個結果就使得動盪的時間可能會延長，所以不確定性就會再增加。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，委員分析得很好。"],["吳委員秉叡：現在美國新的聯準會主席華許上臺之後，本來大家期望是不是有可能降息，川普的意見是想要降低利率，因為美國國債那麼多、利率那麼高，對他來講光是還利息就已經是非常大的負擔、對美國財政來講是非常不利的，所以長期來講他當然希望降低利率，可是跟現實的狀況會有一些距離。第一個是衝突沒有結束，其實這個很有趣，我也聽到川普自己在推特等社群媒體上面講說非農就業增加那麼多，代表美國的經濟很強勁，這當然是上個月的事，這個月非農就業是不如預期。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：經濟強勁他們說要升息，經濟不行他們也要升息，這個是不是有一點矛盾？究竟美國在怎麼樣的狀況下才比較有機會能夠降息？"],["楊總裁金龍：美國的勞動市場確實就像委員說的與非農就業情況有關，他的勞動市場確實已經dropped很厲害，但是看起來好像是好、不好一點點，然後又是好，就像剛剛委員所講的，事實上，以目前的美國經濟跟其他先進國家來比較的話，美國的經濟幾乎是最好的。"],["吳委員秉叡：問題是美國的利率降不下來，一直維持高利率就會造成美元的過度強勢，你看最近美元實在超級強勢，除了中國這個外匯管制國家我們不論之外，其他的主要貨幣對美元都是貶值的嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["吳委員秉叡：原因就在於美元的利率那麼高，錢有一個特徵就是錢會往獲利高的地方去，所謂水往低處流、錢往獲利高的地方去。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，沒有錯。"],["吳委員秉叡：你想想看，為什麼日幣會越來越弱？因為就算日本央行升息，它的利率也才1%而已，美國都還有將近4%，如果日本的貸款容易的話，先不管匯差的問題，我從日本貸款換成美元去美國投資還可以賺利率，更何況看起來美元會繼續強勢，匯差反而還會賺，這是雙重賺，不會只有賺利率，所以這會導致美元過度強勢。美元一直過度強勢對臺灣到底是好還是不好？你的看法如何？"],["楊總裁金龍：美元強勢的話，雖然美元是強勢沒有錯，也就是說它的利率也比較高，不過我總覺得臺灣的經濟也很好，你看看我們的經濟成長率那麼高，出口也非常好，我們的物價也控制得好，這些基本條件可以作為抵擋美元強勢的情況。"],["吳委員秉叡：對，但是如果臺灣的錢（比較不好聽的名字叫做熱錢）也跑到美國去，想要賺他的利率、想要賺他的匯率，那就會導致外匯增加，也就是流到美元區去，這當然會導致臺幣貶值。臺幣貶值對臺灣來講有利有弊，利的是在出口報價的時候，會讓人家覺得比以前便宜，當然這是比較出來的，包括韓國等其他國家搞不好更便宜，因為他們貶得更多。但是臺灣受不了強勢，因為我們是一個出口導向的國家，我們其實需要做很多的外貿，所以也不能過度強勢，當然現在美元是強勢，可是與其他貨幣相較，臺幣相對還是比其他貨幣貶得要少，就是總裁你剛剛講的，因為我們這邊有各種好的條件。這樣長期累積下來，對我們的製造業會有什麼樣的影響？"],["楊總裁金龍：我想我們比較不擔心美元強勢，就是說它的利率高啦！基本上我們自己廠商外匯的供需是比較平衡的，倒是外資的供需比較不平衡，特別是有股利的時候，其實股利有滿大部分都是分配給它。"],["吳委員秉叡：光7月我們臺灣就要發幾千億的股利了。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，所以關於我們匯率的波動，我個人覺得主要是外資的進出比較能夠影響到我們的匯率，我們本身的廠商倒是不會因為美國的利率高，然後大家就把錢匯出去，並不是這樣。"],["吳委員秉叡：所以不是製造業的問題，而是資本市場的問題，因為錢跑來跑去。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，主要還是資本市場的問題。"],["吳委員秉叡：最近美國有很多大公司在證券市場籌資，譬如過去的SpaceX，還有未來的幾間大公司，要去預購股票的時候就要先鎖定資金，他一鎖都鎖很大，甚至鎖到幾千億美金，那個金額非常大，所以他從整個亞洲股市抽了很多美金回去美國，這也導致這幾天我們的成交量及動能稍微有不足的狀況。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：央行面對這樣的狀況，如果它過度流動，就像剛剛前面委員講的柳枝效應，你也要稍微干預一點。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，沒有錯，流動性要調節一下。"],["吳委員秉叡：要調節一下，用「調節」這個名詞是比較好。問題是你在調節的時候，也要注意到如何讓美國能夠了解，因為他們一直在注意我們是不是有外匯管制的問題。"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，第一，我們是管理沒有管制，事實上，外資資金要進出都相當自由。第二，委員講到美國財政部，其實我們跟美國財政部溝通非常良好，對於我們市場調節的情況，他們都非常了解，而且我們對他們也非常坦白，我們不會隱瞞什麼事情，包括這一季我們干預多少我們都會公布，那個數據都是千真萬確的，所以他們對我們也是相當信任的。"],["吳委員秉叡：兩個國家之間的外匯來往有這樣子的信任和充分溝通是非常重要的。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，這非常重要。"],["吳委員秉叡：因為我們受不了被美國制裁，當然這個機會非常小，因為我們很努力在做這個工作，溝通的工作要持續啦！"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["吳委員秉叡：我一直以來的觀點，央行對臺灣而言最重要的就是要穩定物價，當然穩定物價跟利率和匯率都有關係，這部分大家都很努力，謝謝你，我覺得央行工作做得很好，繼續努力！"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝委員的鼓勵與支持，謝謝！"],["主席：我們結束吳秉叡委員的質詢。","接下來請郭國文委員。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":578,"meet_id":"委員會-11-5-20-21","speakers":["李彥秀","林德福","吳秉叡","郭國文","賴惠員","林岱樺","劉書彬","賴士葆","李坤城","陳玉珍","林思銘","王世堅","羅明才","邱志偉","葉元之","洪毓祥","顏寬恒"],"page_start":527,"meetingDate":["2026-07-09"],"gazette_id":"1156102","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1156102_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「股市、通膨、匯率與房市多重風險中，中央銀行中長期因應策略與\n政策工具」進行專題報告，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1156102_00003"}}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}