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是總裁最近這個歐洲央行論壇的主題在討論AI所帶來的金融風險是那在八月份的時候國際央行總裁年會也要討論有關於AI所帶來風險的這個主題我相信那個總裁應該八月會去參加嘛對不對"},{"start":34.582,"end":39.265,"text":"在8月參加的同時 我不曉得總裁會不會分享最近央行也有討論到 關於金融穩定的報告當中也特別批出一個AI的專欄也就是說市場過度集中AI的相關產業"},{"start":50.01,"end":65.551,"text":"外資資金對匯市可能造成的挑戰跟衝擊以及有FOMO的現象恐失良機投資人的槓桿運用的狀況我覺得這三點都點到核心也點到重點可是問題是說你之所以強調AI的部分"},{"start":66.212,"end":79.701,"text":"是不是意味著AI資金過度的集中所帶來股市的榮景已經有意味著潛在的泡沫危機的可能性事實上"},{"start":84.451,"end":110.937,"text":"我們如果說看這個MF一些國際機構包括PIS他們呢都會有一點concern擔心擔心就是說這個資金都是挪到這個AI去了AI的估價呢是不是太高這個股市呢股價呢是不是太高這個都是一直國際機構他們很"},{"start":112.557,"end":129.775,"text":"也就是說你一直擔心的所謂的信用資源過去其實在房市現在集中到股市集中到AI去了嘛所以不免會讓你擔心嘛對不對可是這樣的擔心的情況底下那個央行有一些現象有一種反其道而行你既然擔心的話"},{"start":131.296,"end":137.618,"text":"那為何央行去年六月底的時候未到期的定存單額金額是7,7405億可是到今年六月底卻是6,4107億簡單的講過去的一年央行等同於釋出的資金高達1,3298億"},{"start":153.343,"end":170.506,"text":"如果是你擔心這些信用資源被濫用的話那何以這在整個貨幣供給又持續在增加這是第一個現象而這貨幣供給的增加實質在增加之外我們看到另一個現象從銀行的實質的利率也在走揚"},{"start":171.747,"end":196.679,"text":"這是一個背離的狀況嘛對不對總裁照說利率走陽的話那個整個貨幣的流通的這個總額會縮少嘛對不對那貨幣的供給增加反而利率會走陽這是一個很奇特的現象待會想要請總裁講一下那究竟錢跑到哪裡去從銀行的放款6.2兆從去年6月底到今天5月不動產喔"},{"start":199.62,"end":217.478,"text":"你最關心的1.3兆股市反而是1.87兆製造業不過是1.02兆可是製造業當中的1.02兆當中AI的部分高達了0.79兆非AI的部分你所謂的傳統的部分不過是0.23兆"},{"start":219.64,"end":240.454,"text":"那這2300億 僅僅只有2300億喔 銀行販廣6.26兆喔其中6兆跑去的都是跟AI相關 跟股市相關 跟不動產相關的喔只有2300億是屬於我們一直在關心的這一個製造業會不會造成它的這個製造業有一種流動性的風險啊這兩種現象請總裁說明一下好不好OK 好"},{"start":245.857,"end":269.824,"text":"就是說委員的這個的質詢這一道的質詢給我剛好我也非常感謝你給我這個機會來澄清事實上我們的存單從7兆多一直下降下降到現在6兆多事實上不是我們把資金把它放出去"},{"start":272.325,"end":277.428,"text":"我們在六月的理事會的時候我們在記者會我們就在講包括我們的新聞稿我們就說現在中央銀行是比較朝緊的方向去走"},{"start":286.514,"end":304.127,"text":"是緊喔那緊啊現在呢你就說看到發現就是市場覺得就是說我們的那個貨幣供給呢我們的存單一直下降我們一直在提供那剛好是剛好這個概念是剛好是相反的其實是緊的只是收不回來而已我為什麼就是說存單下來為什麼是緊我現在跟委員報告第一個就是說因為我們的稅收非常好股市啊哇非常熱鬧你看那個交易稅"},{"start":315.615,"end":322.919,"text":"交易稅從以前只有兩千億 三千億 四千億 現在到一兆多每天的證交稅還有我們的企業營運得非常好 所以他的稅也交得比較多所以有五 六千億在今年初以來就被鎖在財政部的帳戶裡面"},{"start":338.426,"end":362.754,"text":"這是第一點第二點呢我們在三月的時候在最近我們才公佈我們前第一季的時候呢我們賣費了一千兩百五十一百二十五億美元一百二十五億美元的話就三千多億啦加起來也就相當於一塊一兆啦也就是說我們我們賣美元收台幣嘛所以呢"},{"start":364.065,"end":389.477,"text":"財政部鎖了五六千億我們收進來差額就跑到這邊所以也就是說資金不是貨幣供應的增加而是反而是貨幣供給的減少所以你後面的工具會朝緊的方向進行那之前現在信用你最擔心的是信用資源的部分現在分配不平均的情況底下可能會到傳產的部分有流動性的風險但是有些人是"},{"start":393.439,"end":397.981,"text":"整個呢還溢出來這種現象怎麼處理所以呢也就是說第一個我覺得就是說剛剛你也看到就說commercial paper的利率往上commercial paper的利率往上那個都是很多最近都是那個券商他去發行的然後呢由銀行去買所以呢他的利率就高啦"},{"start":416.909,"end":440.347,"text":"所以你緊縮所以這個才講的對啊就是說我緊縮我利率才會高啊那所以呢也就是說那現在呢就是現在呢委員呢就在講到就是說中小企業中小微企業那所以呢也就是說中小微企業呢這一塊呢行政院呢政府呢就特別去注意他"},{"start":441.909,"end":456.543,"text":"那這樣子我等一下了解你的意思當然你剛剛提到外資的部分的這個匯市的風險外資在7月7號的時候其實它透過什麼方式邁超前十大的這個ETF邁超前十大當中有八檔是ETF是"},{"start":457.904,"end":476.286,"text":"其中0050加7檔的主動性資金過去0050五六月的時候它賣超了100但是市價高達1000億但是後來又競爭家有些人是想說這可能純粹是套利的方式但是會不會是它一種償錢的方式"},{"start":479.414,"end":498.11,"text":"因為你會逼他匯出嘛我沒有逼他匯出是他要匯出你限期要他匯出嘛我沒有限期他多一個避風港以前ETF的部分外資沒有買這麼多沒有 你有沒有注意到這個現象他最近外資在ETF持有非常高我跟委員報告"},{"start":499.991,"end":522.905,"text":"當外資它在我們的股市它獲利到達一個界限的時候它必須要怎麼樣再重新再分配它不會就是說這是一個投資的概念不會就是說我一直升我到一步它會人家是停損的時候它是停利"},{"start":524.026,"end":541.9,"text":"停利的意思就是他就要賣啊賣他就要出去剛剛委員就說我們中央銀行就要強迫他一直匯出去沒有沒有這回事不會那個總裁你剛剛回答都很好但是就一個AI是會造成一個潛在的泡沫你還是沒有正向回答我再跟你提一個"},{"start":543.962,"end":570.615,"text":"你剛剛有提到央行其實會有一些報告說消費跟財富朝向K型化產業也會朝向K型化以致你未來的這個利率工具其實不一定那麼方便使用這是第一然後股市其實也朝向K型化股市朝向K型化的情況底下很多股票漲了翻天有些卻是找不到任何的支撐點甚至淪落成殭屍股"},{"start":571.876,"end":595.944,"text":"你看看我統計過去上千元的這個千金股總共到昨天為止有32家上市的部分上櫃的部分有17家總共49家但是其中你注意看跟AI相關本益比在50以下只有17家本益比超過100的有超過11家一般而言我們本益比都要20倍上下而已"},{"start":596.944,"end":622.595,"text":"結果這裡頭的這幾家當中有49家是純的AI股的概念股所以從股市的這種現象跟反應從資金流動的反應從信用資源的配置總體而言再加上國際的央行論壇也在討論AI再加上我們的文章也討論到AI這你應該有潛在感受到AI的泡沫的這種危機吧 總裁"},{"start":622.895,"end":635.698,"text":"你又正式來面對這個問題我想AI是不是到目前是不是泡沫潛在啦潛在啦你是不是擔心是擔心啦當然我們中央銀行我們也是會擔心只是說我覺得這一次的AI它確實是真的是是一個有它的動力也是有它的基本面它AI的這個它是確實是有這個只是說那個信用"},{"start":653.602,"end":659.306,"text":"信用是不是槓桿信用是怎麼樣是不是過度過度擴張這個就是我沒必要擔心的最主要是在這裡不然的話AI應該就是說這個方向是對的這個是對的"},{"start":669.092,"end":673.233,"text":"所以也就是說是因為他是對的所以你看看我們台灣的這個零組件的電子業的這邊自動性才會那麼的蓬勃發展也是在這裡啊這種現象其實在某個程度AI的浪潮當中一般而言是美國韓國台灣是受益但是同樣在受益過程當中我們隱藏了這種"},{"start":694.242,"end":702.636,"text":"但是政府必須要去注意這個我想台灣的這個特殊的經驗應該是在八月的時候全世界聯會的時候總裁可以作為分享的一個重要的關鍵"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}