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關於金融穩定的報告當中也特別批出一個AI的專欄也就是說市場過度集中AI的相關產業"},{"start":50.01,"end":65.551,"text":"外資資金對匯市可能造成的挑戰跟衝擊以及有FOMO的現象恐失良機投資人的槓桿運用的狀況我覺得這三點都點到核心也點到重點可是問題是說你之所以強調AI的部分"},{"start":66.212,"end":79.701,"text":"是不是意味著AI資金過度的集中所帶來股市的榮景已經有意味著潛在的泡沫危機的可能性事實上"},{"start":84.451,"end":110.937,"text":"我們如果說看這個MF一些國際機構包括PIS他們呢都會有一點concern擔心擔心就是說這個資金都是挪到這個AI去了AI的估價呢是不是太高這個股市呢股價呢是不是太高這個都是一直國際機構他們很"},{"start":112.557,"end":129.775,"text":"也就是說你一直擔心的所謂的信用資源過去其實在房市現在集中到股市集中到AI去了嘛所以不免會讓你擔心嘛對不對可是這樣的擔心的情況底下那個央行有一些現象有一種反其道而行你既然擔心的話"},{"start":131.296,"end":137.618,"text":"那為何央行去年六月底的時候未到期的定存單額金額是7,7405億可是到今年六月底卻是6,4107億簡單的講過去的一年央行等同於釋出的資金高達1,3298億"},{"start":153.343,"end":170.506,"text":"如果是你擔心這些信用資源被濫用的話那何以這在整個貨幣供給又持續在增加這是第一個現象而這貨幣供給的增加實質在增加之外我們看到另一個現象從銀行的實質的利率也在走揚"},{"start":171.747,"end":196.679,"text":"這是一個背離的狀況嘛對不對總裁照說利率走陽的話那個整個貨幣的流通的這個總額會縮少嘛對不對那貨幣的供給增加反而利率會走陽這是一個很奇特的現象待會想要請總裁講一下那究竟錢跑到哪裡去從銀行的放款6.2兆從去年6月底到今天5月不動產喔"},{"start":199.62,"end":217.478,"text":"你最關心的1.3兆股市反而是1.87兆製造業不過是1.02兆可是製造業當中的1.02兆當中AI的部分高達了0.79兆非AI的部分你所謂的傳統的部分不過是0.23兆"},{"start":219.64,"end":240.454,"text":"那這2300億 僅僅只有2300億喔 銀行販廣6.26兆喔其中6兆跑去的都是跟AI相關 跟股市相關 跟不動產相關的喔只有2300億是屬於我們一直在關心的這一個製造業會不會造成它的這個製造業有一種流動性的風險啊這兩種現象請總裁說明一下好不好OK 好"},{"start":245.857,"end":269.824,"text":"就是說委員的這個的質詢這一道的質詢給我剛好我也非常感謝你給我這個機會來澄清事實上我們的存單從7兆多一直下降下降到現在6兆多事實上不是我們把資金把它放出去"},{"start":272.325,"end":277.428,"text":"我們在六月的理事會的時候我們在記者會我們就在講包括我們的新聞稿我們就說現在中央銀行是比較朝緊的方向去走"},{"start":286.514,"end":304.127,"text":"是緊喔那緊啊現在呢你就說看到發現就是市場覺得就是說我們的那個貨幣供給呢我們的存單一直下降我們一直在提供那剛好是剛好這個概念是剛好是相反的其實是緊的只是收不回來而已我為什麼就是說存單下來為什麼是緊我現在跟委員報告第一個就是說因為我們的稅收非常好股市啊哇非常熱鬧你看那個交易稅"},{"start":315.615,"end":322.919,"text":"交易稅從以前只有兩千億 三千億 四千億 現在到一兆多每天的證交稅還有我們的企業營運得非常好 所以他的稅也交得比較多所以有五 六千億在今年初以來就被鎖在財政部的帳戶裡面"},{"start":338.426,"end":362.754,"text":"這是第一點第二點呢我們在三月的時候在最近我們才公佈我們前第一季的時候呢我們賣費了一千兩百五十一百二十五億美元一百二十五億美元的話就三千多億啦加起來也就相當於一塊一兆啦也就是說我們我們賣美元收台幣嘛所以呢"},{"start":364.065,"end":389.477,"text":"財政部鎖了五六千億我們收進來差額就跑到這邊所以也就是說資金不是貨幣供應的增加而是反而是貨幣供給的減少所以你後面的工具會朝緊的方向進行那之前現在信用你最擔心的是信用資源的部分現在分配不平均的情況底下可能會到傳產的部分有流動性的風險但是有些人是"},{"start":393.439,"end":397.981,"text":"整個呢還溢出來這種現象怎麼處理所以呢也就是說第一個我覺得就是說剛剛你也看到就說commercial paper的利率往上commercial paper的利率往上那個都是很多最近都是那個券商他去發行的然後呢由銀行去買所以呢他的利率就高啦"},{"start":416.909,"end":440.347,"text":"所以你緊縮所以這個才講的對啊就是說我緊縮我利率才會高啊那所以呢也就是說那現在呢就是現在呢委員呢就在講到就是說中小企業中小微企業那所以呢也就是說中小微企業呢這一塊呢行政院呢政府呢就特別去注意他"},{"start":441.909,"end":456.543,"text":"那這樣子我等一下了解你的意思當然你剛剛提到外資的部分的這個匯市的風險外資在7月7號的時候其實它透過什麼方式邁超前十大的這個ETF邁超前十大當中有八檔是ETF是"},{"start":457.904,"end":476.286,"text":"其中0050加7檔的主動性資金過去0050五六月的時候它賣超了100但是市價高達1000億但是後來又競爭家有些人是想說這可能純粹是套利的方式但是會不會是它一種償錢的方式"},{"start":479.414,"end":498.11,"text":"因為你會逼他匯出嘛我沒有逼他匯出是他要匯出你限期要他匯出嘛我沒有限期他多一個避風港以前ETF的部分外資沒有買這麼多沒有 你有沒有注意到這個現象他最近外資在ETF持有非常高我跟委員報告"},{"start":499.991,"end":522.905,"text":"當外資它在我們的股市它獲利到達一個界限的時候它必須要怎麼樣再重新再分配它不會就是說這是一個投資的概念不會就是說我一直升我到一步它會人家是停損的時候它是停利"},{"start":524.026,"end":541.9,"text":"停利的意思就是他就要賣啊賣他就要出去剛剛委員就說我們中央銀行就要強迫他一直匯出去沒有沒有這回事不會那個總裁你剛剛回答都很好但是就一個AI是會造成一個潛在的泡沫你還是沒有正向回答我再跟你提一個"},{"start":543.962,"end":570.615,"text":"你剛剛有提到央行其實會有一些報告說消費跟財富朝向K型化產業也會朝向K型化以致你未來的這個利率工具其實不一定那麼方便使用這是第一然後股市其實也朝向K型化股市朝向K型化的情況底下很多股票漲了翻天有些卻是找不到任何的支撐點甚至淪落成殭屍股"},{"start":571.876,"end":595.944,"text":"你看看我統計過去上千元的這個千金股總共到昨天為止有32家上市的部分上櫃的部分有17家總共49家但是其中你注意看跟AI相關本益比在50以下只有17家本益比超過100的有超過11家一般而言我們本益比都要20倍上下而已"},{"start":596.944,"end":622.595,"text":"結果這裡頭的這幾家當中有49家是純的AI股的概念股所以從股市的這種現象跟反應從資金流動的反應從信用資源的配置總體而言再加上國際的央行論壇也在討論AI再加上我們的文章也討論到AI這你應該有潛在感受到AI的泡沫的這種危機吧 總裁"},{"start":622.895,"end":635.698,"text":"你又正式來面對這個問題我想AI是不是到目前是不是泡沫潛在啦潛在啦你是不是擔心是擔心啦當然我們中央銀行我們也是會擔心只是說我覺得這一次的AI它確實是真的是是一個有它的動力也是有它的基本面它AI的這個它是確實是有這個只是說那個信用"},{"start":653.602,"end":659.306,"text":"信用是不是槓桿信用是怎麼樣是不是過度過度擴張這個就是我沒必要擔心的最主要是在這裡不然的話AI應該就是說這個方向是對的這個是對的"},{"start":669.092,"end":673.233,"text":"所以也就是說是因為他是對的所以你看看我們台灣的這個零組件的電子業的這邊自動性才會那麼的蓬勃發展也是在這裡啊這種現象其實在某個程度AI的浪潮當中一般而言是美國韓國台灣是受益但是同樣在受益過程當中我們隱藏了這種"},{"start":694.242,"end":702.636,"text":"但是政府必須要去注意這個我想台灣的這個特殊的經驗應該是在八月的時候全世界聯會的時候總裁可以作為分享的一個重要的關鍵"}],"gazette":[{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:28:27.622000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:28:28.043000+08:00","text":"謝謝主席，有請楊總裁。","quality":1},{"speaker":"主席","start":"2026-07-09T09:28:28.123000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:28:28.123000+08:00","text":"請總裁。","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:28:28.263000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:28:28.303000+08:00","text":"郭委員早。","quality":1},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:28:28.323000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:28:28.463000+08:00","text":"總裁好。","quality":1},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:28:28.523000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:28:30.724000+08:00","text":"最近歐洲央行論壇的主題在討論AI所帶來的金融風險，在8月份的時候，國際央行總裁年會也要討論有關於AI所帶來風險的主題，我相信總裁8月應該也會去參加對不對？","quality":0.972},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:28:56.582000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:29:41.221000+08:00","text":"在8月參加的同時，我不曉得總裁會不會分享最近央行金融穩定報告當中也特別闢出一個AI專欄，其中提到市場過度集中於AI相關產業、外資資金對匯市可能造成的挑戰與衝擊，以及有FOMO的現象恐錯失良機與投資人槓桿運用的狀況，我覺得這三點都點到核心與重點，但問題是你之所以強調AI的部分，是不是意味著AI資金過度集中所帶來的股市榮景已經有潛在泡沫危機的可能性？","quality":0.927},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:29:41.221000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:29:42.221000+08:00","text":"是不是這樣子？","quality":0},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:29:41.461000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:29:59.274000+08:00","text":"事實上，我們如果看IMF以及BIS等國際機構，他們也都會有一點concern。","quality":0.778},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:29:59.514000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:29:59.514000+08:00","text":"都會擔心、關心。","quality":0.333},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:30:00.154000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:30:03.855000+08:00","text":"擔心資金都挪到AI去了。對。","quality":0.917},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:30:04.235000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:30:12.917000+08:00","text":"還有AI的估價是不是太高、股市股價是不是太高，這些都是國際機構一直很關心的地方。","quality":0.486},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:30:14.557000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:30:21.604000+08:00","text":"也就是說，你一直擔心所謂的信用資源過去集中在房市，現在集中到股市、集中到AI去了。","quality":0.946},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:30:21.604000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:30:22.605000+08:00","text":"沒有錯，對。","quality":0},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:30:22.605000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:30:24.467000+08:00","text":"不免會讓你擔心，對不對？對。","quality":0.909},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:30:24.467000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:30:31.274000+08:00","text":"可是這樣擔心的情況底下，央行有一些現象卻是反其道而行。","quality":0.92},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:30:31.434000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:30:38.378000+08:00","text":"你既然擔心的話，為何去年6月底的時候未到期定存單金額是7兆7,405億，可是到今年6月底卻是6兆4,107億？","quality":0.9},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:30:38.378000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:31:02.753000+08:00","text":"簡單地講，過去一年央行釋出的資金高達1兆3,298億，如果你擔心這些信用資源被濫用的話，何以整個貨幣供給又持續增加？","quality":0.939},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:31:03.093000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:31:04.015000+08:00","text":"這是第一個現象。","quality":1},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:31:05.356000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:31:16.809000+08:00","text":"貨幣供給實質在增加之外，我們看到另一個現象是銀行的實質利率也在走揚，總裁，這是一個背離的狀況，對不對？","quality":0.935},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:31:17.569000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:31:25.833000+08:00","text":"照理說利率走揚的話，整個貨幣流通的總額會縮少，對不對？","quality":0.917},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:31:26.533000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:31:32.416000+08:00","text":"貨幣的供給增加，反而利率會走揚，這是很奇特的現象，待會想要請總裁講一下。","quality":0.969},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:31:33.276000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:31:34.797000+08:00","text":"究竟錢跑到哪裡去了？","quality":0.889},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:31:36.818000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:32:05.863000+08:00","text":"從去年6月底到今年4月，銀行放款增加6.26兆，其中你最關心的不動產有1.3兆，股市反而是1.87兆，製造業不過是1.02兆，可是製造業的1.02兆當中，AI的部分竟高達了0.79兆，非AI的部分、所謂的傳產部分不過是0.23兆，僅僅只有2,300億。","quality":0.8},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:32:06.103000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:32:21.594000+08:00","text":"銀行放款增加6.26兆，其中6兆都是跑去跟AI相關、跟股市相關、跟不動產相關的，只有2,300億是屬於我們一直在關心的製造業，會不會造成製造業有一種流動性的風險？","quality":0.896},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:32:21.614000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:32:22.414000+08:00","text":"這兩種現象請總裁說明一下，好不好？OK。","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:32:29.558000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:32:39.461000+08:00","text":"對於委員這一道的質詢，我也非常感謝你給我機會來澄清。","quality":0.917},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:32:41.321000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:33:09.555000+08:00","text":"我們的存單從七兆多一直下降到現在六兆多，事實上不是我們把資金放出去，我們在6月理事會記者會的時候就在講，包括我們的新聞稿都說，現在中央銀行比較朝緊的方向去走，是緊喔！","quality":0.921},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:33:10.656000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:33:21.844000+08:00","text":"現在市場覺得我們的貨幣供給、存單一直下降，我們一直在提供，其實這個概念剛好是相反的。","quality":0.947},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:33:21.864000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:33:23.765000+08:00","text":"其實是緊的，只是收不回來而已。","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:33:23.805000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:33:42.577000+08:00","text":"是緊的，我為什麼說存單下來是緊的，我現在跟委員報告，第一個，因為我們的稅收非常好，股市非常熱絡，交易稅從以前只有2,000億、3,000億、4,000億，現在到一兆多，每天的證交稅……","quality":0.882},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:33:42.577000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:33:43.577000+08:00","text":"我知道。","quality":0},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:33:42.577000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:34:01.286000+08:00","text":"還有我們的企業營運得非常好，稅也交得比較多，所以有五、六千億在今年初以來就被鎖在財政部的帳戶裡面，這是第一點。","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:34:01.286000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:34:30.767000+08:00","text":"第二點，我們最近才公布第1季的時候賣匯了125億美元，125億美元就是三千多億臺幣，加起來也相當於快1兆了，也就是說，我們賣美元、收臺幣，加上財政部也鎖了五、六千億，我們收進來……","quality":0.859},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:34:30.767000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:34:32.568000+08:00","text":"好，差額就跑到這邊來。對。","quality":0.7},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:34:32.568000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:34:33.869000+08:00","text":"我知道。","quality":0},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:34:33.869000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:34:39.191000+08:00","text":"也就是說，資金不是貨幣供給額增加，反而是貨幣供給額減少。","quality":0.88},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:34:39.191000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:34:41.192000+08:00","text":"所以你是朝緊的方向進行。是。","quality":0},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:34:41.192000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:34:43.173000+08:00","text":"所以你後面的工具會朝緊的方向進行。是。","quality":0.941},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:34:46.075000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:34:51.177000+08:00","text":"你最擔心的信用資源現在分配不平均的情況底下，可能會造成傳產的部分有流動性的風險……是。","quality":0.923},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:34:51.177000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:34:55.739000+08:00","text":"但是有些是整個還溢出來，這種現象怎麼處理？","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:34:56.139000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:35:29.998000+08:00","text":"第一個，剛剛你也看到，Commercial Paper的利率往上，最近很多都是券商去發行，由銀行去買，所以利率就高，所以你緊縮，這才講得對，就是緊縮，利率才會高，對不對？是。","quality":0.865},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:35:30.518000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:35:42.227000+08:00","text":"現在委員講到中小微企業，對於中小微企業這一塊，行政院、政府要特別去注意。","quality":0.906},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:35:44.389000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:35:49.754000+08:00","text":"好，我了解你的意思，但你剛才提到外資部分的匯市風險。對。","quality":0.833},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:35:49.754000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:35:53.458000+08:00","text":"外資在7月7日的時候透過什麼方式？","quality":0.929},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:35:56.801000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:02.047000+08:00","text":"賣超前十大當中有8檔是ETF，包括0050和7檔主動式基金。","quality":0.682},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:02.788000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:14.422000+08:00","text":"以0050來看，外資5、6月的時候賣超了100萬張，市價高達1,000億，後來持有張數還淨增加，有些人覺得這可能純粹是套利的方式……對。","quality":0.617},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:15.623000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:18.266000+08:00","text":"但是會不會是一種藏錢的方式？","quality":0.923},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:21.414000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:22.755000+08:00","text":"因為你會逼它匯出嘛！","quality":0.889},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:23.356000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:24.977000+08:00","text":"我沒有逼它匯出，是它要匯出。","quality":0.833},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:25.037000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:26.318000+08:00","text":"你限期要它匯出嘛！","quality":0.875},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:26.678000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:27.159000+08:00","text":"我沒有限期它……","quality":0.833},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:27.439000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:28.820000+08:00","text":"他們會不會又多一個避風港？沒有。","quality":0.5},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:29.301000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:33.204000+08:00","text":"以前ETF的部分，外資沒有買這麼多。","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:33.344000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:33.484000+08:00","text":"沒有，委員……","quality":0.5},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:33.965000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:35.386000+08:00","text":"總裁，你有沒有注意到這個現象？","quality":0.846},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:36.447000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:36:38.428000+08:00","text":"最近外資在ETF持有非常高喔！","quality":0.929},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:36:39.269000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:37:07.387000+08:00","text":"我跟委員報告，當外資在我們的股市獲利到達一個界線的時候，必須重新再分配，不會說這是一個投資的概念，不會一直升了，到了……人家是停損的時候，它是停利，停利的意思是它就要賣。對。","quality":0.934},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:37:09.609000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:37:16.875000+08:00","text":"賣了，它就要出去，剛剛委員說我們中央銀行就要強迫它一直匯出去，沒有，沒有這回事，不會！","quality":0.919},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:37:17.355000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:37:23.019000+08:00","text":"總裁，你剛剛回答得很好，但是就AI是不是會造成潛在的泡沫，你還是沒有正向回答。","quality":0.914},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:37:23.160000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:37:39.188000+08:00","text":"我再跟你提一個，剛剛你有提到央行有一些報告指出消費及財富朝向K型化，產業也會朝向K型化，以至於未來的利率工具其實不一定那麼方便使用，這是第一。是。","quality":0.896},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:37:39.289000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:37:52.595000+08:00","text":"然後股市其實也朝向K型化，股市朝向K型化的情況底下，很多股票漲翻天，有些卻找不到任何的支撐點，甚至淪落成僵屍股。","quality":0.98},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:37:54.596000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:38:14.583000+08:00","text":"我統計過去的資料，上千元的千金股到昨天為止，上市的部分有32家，上櫃的部分有17家，總共49家，但是你注意看，其中跟AI相關的本益比在50以下的只有17家，本益比超過100的有超過11家。對。","quality":0.861},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:38:15.663000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:38:44.215000+08:00","text":"一般而言，本益比都是20倍上下而已，結果這幾家當中有49家是純AI股的概念股，所以從股市這種現象跟反應，從資金流動的反應，從信用資源的配置，總體而言，國際的央行論壇也在討論AI，再加上我們的文章也討論到AI，總裁，你應該有潛在感受到AI泡沫的這種危機吧？","quality":0.973},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:38:44.895000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:38:46.615000+08:00","text":"你要正式面對這個問題。","quality":0.9},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:38:46.615000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:38:52.136000+08:00","text":"我想AI到目前是不是泡沫……潛在。","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:38:53.077000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:38:53.077000+08:00","text":"對，潛在。","quality":0.667},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:38:53.337000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:38:53.457000+08:00","text":"你是不是擔心？","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:38:53.477000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:38:56.357000+08:00","text":"是擔心，當然，我們中央銀行也是會擔心，只是我覺得這一次AI確實真的有它的動力，它是真的……","quality":0.897},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:38:56.377000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:38:56.557000+08:00","text":"對，也是有它的基本面啦。","quality":0.8},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:38:56.757000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:39:18.183000+08:00","text":"AI確實是有，只是那個信用是不是槓桿、信用是怎麼樣、是不是過度……","quality":1},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:39:18.403000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:39:18.824000+08:00","text":"過度擴張。","quality":1},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:39:18.824000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:39:19.704000+08:00","text":"對，過度擴張，這個就是我們要擔心的，最主要是在這裡。","quality":0.727},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:39:19.704000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:39:20.825000+08:00","text":"不然的話，AI這個方向是對的，所以……","quality":0.867},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:39:20.845000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:39:21.286000+08:00","text":"產業發展是對的。","quality":0.429},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:39:31.272000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:39:33.053000+08:00","text":"也就是說，因為它是對的，所以你可以看到我們臺灣的電子零組件、電子業、資通訊產業才會那麼蓬勃發展，原因也是在這裡！","quality":0.74},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:39:33.073000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:39:34.353000+08:00","text":"這種現象其實在某個程度AI的浪潮當中，一般而言是美國、韓國、臺灣受益。","quality":0.935},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:39:34.353000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:39:34.493000+08:00","text":"是，我們臺灣是受益的。","quality":0.333},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:39:34.633000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:39:35.233000+08:00","text":"但是同樣在受益過程當中，我們隱藏了這種可能的潛在風險。","quality":0.72},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:39:56.543000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:39:57.745000+08:00","text":"對，當然，政府必須要注意的就是說……","quality":0.5},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:39:58.686000+08:00","guessed":false,"end":"2026-07-09T09:40:04.636000+08:00","text":"我想臺灣這個特殊經驗應該在8月全世界年會的時候總裁可以做為分享的一個很重要關鍵。","quality":0.921},{"speaker":"楊總裁金龍","start":"2026-07-09T09:40:05.136000+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:40:06.278857+08:00","text":"OK，謝謝。","quality":0},{"speaker":"郭委員國文","start":"2026-07-09T09:40:06.578857+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:40:09.150286+08:00","text":"好，謝謝總裁，謝謝。謝謝。","quality":0},{"speaker":"主席","start":"2026-07-09T09:40:09.450286+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:40:13.450286+08:00","text":"謝謝，我們結束郭國文委員的質詢。","quality":0},{"speaker":"主席","start":"2026-07-09T09:40:13.750286+08:00","guessed":true,"end":"2026-07-09T09:40:16.321714+08:00","text":"接下來請賴惠員委員。","quality":0}]},"gazette":{"lineno":112,"blocks":[["郭委員國文：（9時28分）謝謝主席，有請楊總裁。"],["主席：請總裁。"],["楊總裁金龍：郭委員早。"],["郭委員國文：總裁好。最近歐洲央行論壇的主題在討論AI所帶來的金融風險，在8月份的時候，國際央行總裁年會也要討論有關於AI所帶來風險的主題，我相信總裁8月應該也會去參加對不對？在8月參加的同時，我不曉得總裁會不會分享最近央行金融穩定報告當中也特別闢出一個AI專欄，其中提到市場過度集中於AI相關產業、外資資金對匯市可能造成的挑戰與衝擊，以及有FOMO的現象恐錯失良機與投資人槓桿運用的狀況，我覺得這三點都點到核心與重點，但問題是你之所以強調AI的部分，是不是意味著AI資金過度集中所帶來的股市榮景已經有潛在泡沫危機的可能性？是不是這樣子？"],["楊總裁金龍：事實上，我們如果看IMF以及BIS等國際機構，他們也都會有一點concern。"],["郭委員國文：都會擔心、關心。"],["楊總裁金龍：擔心資金都挪到AI去了。"],["郭委員國文：對。"],["楊總裁金龍：還有AI的估價是不是太高、股市股價是不是太高，這些都是國際機構一直很關心的地方。"],["郭委員國文：也就是說，你一直擔心所謂的信用資源過去集中在房市，現在集中到股市、集中到AI去了。"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有錯，對。"],["郭委員國文：不免會讓你擔心，對不對？"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：可是這樣擔心的情況底下，央行有一些現象卻是反其道而行。你既然擔心的話，為何去年6月底的時候未到期定存單金額是7兆7,405億，可是到今年6月底卻是6兆4,107億？簡單地講，過去一年央行釋出的資金高達1兆3,298億，如果你擔心這些信用資源被濫用的話，何以整個貨幣供給又持續增加？這是第一個現象。貨幣供給實質在增加之外，我們看到另一個現象是銀行的實質利率也在走揚，總裁，這是一個背離的狀況，對不對？照理說利率走揚的話，整個貨幣流通的總額會縮少，對不對？貨幣的供給增加，反而利率會走揚，這是很奇特的現象，待會想要請總裁講一下。","究竟錢跑到哪裡去了？從去年6月底到今年4月，銀行放款增加6.26兆，其中你最關心的不動產有1.3兆，股市反而是1.87兆，製造業不過是1.02兆，可是製造業的1.02兆當中，AI的部分竟高達了0.79兆，非AI的部分、所謂的傳產部分不過是0.23兆，僅僅只有2,300億。銀行放款增加6.26兆，其中6兆都是跑去跟AI相關、跟股市相關、跟不動產相關的，只有2,300億是屬於我們一直在關心的製造業，會不會造成製造業有一種流動性的風險？這兩種現象請總裁說明一下，好不好？"],["楊總裁金龍：OK。對於委員這一道的質詢，我也非常感謝你給我機會來澄清。我們的存單從七兆多一直下降到現在六兆多，事實上不是我們把資金放出去，我們在6月理事會記者會的時候就在講，包括我們的新聞稿都說，現在中央銀行比較朝緊的方向去走，是緊喔！現在市場覺得我們的貨幣供給、存單一直下降，我們一直在提供，其實這個概念剛好是相反的。"],["郭委員國文：其實是緊的，只是收不回來而已。"],["楊總裁金龍：是緊的，我為什麼說存單下來是緊的，我現在跟委員報告，第一個，因為我們的稅收非常好，股市非常熱絡，交易稅從以前只有2,000億、3,000億、4,000億，現在到一兆多，每天的證交稅……"],["郭委員國文：我知道。"],["楊總裁金龍：還有我們的企業營運得非常好，稅也交得比較多，所以有五、六千億在今年初以來就被鎖在財政部的帳戶裡面，這是第一點。第二點，我們最近才公布第1季的時候賣匯了125億美元，125億美元就是三千多億臺幣，加起來也相當於快1兆了，也就是說，我們賣美元、收臺幣，加上財政部也鎖了五、六千億，我們收進來……"],["郭委員國文：好，差額就跑到這邊來。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：我知道。"],["楊總裁金龍：也就是說，資金不是貨幣供給額增加，反而是貨幣供給額減少。"],["郭委員國文：所以你是朝緊的方向進行。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：所以你後面的工具會朝緊的方向進行。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：你最擔心的信用資源現在分配不平均的情況底下，可能會造成傳產的部分有流動性的風險……"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：但是有些是整個還溢出來，這種現象怎麼處理？"],["楊總裁金龍：第一個，剛剛你也看到，Commercial Paper的利率往上，最近很多都是券商去發行，由銀行去買，所以利率就高，所以你緊縮，這才講得對，就是緊縮，利率才會高，對不對？"],["郭委員國文：是。"],["楊總裁金龍：現在委員講到中小微企業，對於中小微企業這一塊，行政院、政府要特別去注意。"],["郭委員國文：好，我了解你的意思，但你剛才提到外資部分的匯市風險。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：外資在7月7日的時候透過什麼方式？賣超前十大當中有8檔是ETF，包括0050和7檔主動式基金。以0050來看，外資5、6月的時候賣超了100萬張，市價高達1,000億，後來持有張數還淨增加，有些人覺得這可能純粹是套利的方式……"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：但是會不會是一種藏錢的方式？因為你會逼它匯出嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：我沒有逼它匯出，是它要匯出。"],["郭委員國文：你限期要它匯出嘛！"],["楊總裁金龍：我沒有限期它……"],["郭委員國文：他們會不會又多一個避風港？"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有。"],["郭委員國文：以前ETF的部分，外資沒有買這麼多。"],["楊總裁金龍：沒有，委員……"],["郭委員國文：總裁，你有沒有注意到這個現象？最近外資在ETF持有非常高喔！"],["楊總裁金龍：我跟委員報告，當外資在我們的股市獲利到達一個界線的時候，必須重新再分配，不會說這是一個投資的概念，不會一直升了，到了……人家是停損的時候，它是停利，停利的意思是它就要賣。"],["郭委員國文：對。"],["楊總裁金龍：賣了，它就要出去，剛剛委員說我們中央銀行就要強迫它一直匯出去，沒有，沒有這回事，不會！"],["郭委員國文：總裁，你剛剛回答得很好，但是就AI是不是會造成潛在的泡沫，你還是沒有正向回答。我再跟你提一個，剛剛你有提到央行有一些報告指出消費及財富朝向K型化，產業也會朝向K型化，以至於未來的利率工具其實不一定那麼方便使用，這是第一。"],["楊總裁金龍：是。"],["郭委員國文：然後股市其實也朝向K型化，股市朝向K型化的情況底下，很多股票漲翻天，有些卻找不到任何的支撐點，甚至淪落成僵屍股。我統計過去的資料，上千元的千金股到昨天為止，上市的部分有32家，上櫃的部分有17家，總共49家，但是你注意看，其中跟AI相關的本益比在50以下的只有17家，本益比超過100的有超過11家。"],["楊總裁金龍：對。"],["郭委員國文：一般而言，本益比都是20倍上下而已，結果這幾家當中有49家是純AI股的概念股，所以從股市這種現象跟反應，從資金流動的反應，從信用資源的配置，總體而言，國際的央行論壇也在討論AI，再加上我們的文章也討論到AI，總裁，你應該有潛在感受到AI泡沫的這種危機吧？你要正式面對這個問題。"],["楊總裁金龍：我想AI到目前是不是泡沫……"],["郭委員國文：潛在。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，潛在。"],["郭委員國文：你是不是擔心？"],["楊總裁金龍：是擔心，當然，我們中央銀行也是會擔心，只是我覺得這一次AI確實真的有它的動力，它是真的……"],["郭委員國文：對，也是有它的基本面啦。"],["楊總裁金龍：AI確實是有，只是那個信用是不是槓桿、信用是怎麼樣、是不是過度……"],["郭委員國文：過度擴張。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，過度擴張，這個就是我們要擔心的，最主要是在這裡。不然的話，AI這個方向是對的，所以……"],["郭委員國文：產業發展是對的。"],["楊總裁金龍：也就是說，因為它是對的，所以你可以看到我們臺灣的電子零組件、電子業、資通訊產業才會那麼蓬勃發展，原因也是在這裡！"],["郭委員國文：這種現象其實在某個程度AI的浪潮當中，一般而言是美國、韓國、臺灣受益。"],["楊總裁金龍：是，我們臺灣是受益的。"],["郭委員國文：但是同樣在受益過程當中，我們隱藏了這種可能的潛在風險。"],["楊總裁金龍：對，當然，政府必須要注意的就是說……"],["郭委員國文：我想臺灣這個特殊經驗應該在8月全世界年會的時候總裁可以做為分享的一個很重要關鍵。"],["楊總裁金龍：OK，謝謝。"],["郭委員國文：好，謝謝總裁，謝謝。"],["楊總裁金龍：謝謝。"],["主席：謝謝，我們結束郭國文委員的質詢。","接下來請賴惠員委員。"]],"agenda":{"page_end":578,"meet_id":"委員會-11-5-20-21","speakers":["李彥秀","林德福","吳秉叡","郭國文","賴惠員","林岱樺","劉書彬","賴士葆","李坤城","陳玉珍","林思銘","王世堅","羅明才","邱志偉","葉元之","洪毓祥","顏寬恒"],"page_start":527,"meetingDate":["2026-07-09"],"gazette_id":"1156102","agenda_lcidc_ids":["1156102_00004"],"meet_name":"立法院第11屆第5會期財政委員會第21次全體委員會議紀錄","content":"邀請中央銀行楊總裁金龍就「股市、通膨、匯率與房市多重風險中，中央銀行中長期因應策略與\n政策工具」進行專題報告，並備質詢","agenda_id":"1156102_00003"}}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}