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Global預測本年台灣CPI年增益為2.07%明年將降至2%以下且明年台灣通膨率1.92%低於全球3.5%美國的2.8%歐洲的2.7%"},{"start":1787.315,"end":1796.988,"text":"二本年六月本行理事會維持政策利率不變將有助整體經濟金融穩定的穩健的發展"},{"start":1803.339,"end":1819.806,"text":"4.伴隨台股交易熱絡,民眾擴大借貸從事理財活動,本行密切關注股市融資槓桿變化及銀行資金流入股市情形,銀行則留意相關信用擴張情形及其風險控管。"},{"start":1823.238,"end":1849.999,"text":"請翻開第八二第九月五本行採行管理浮動匯率制度維持外匯市場秩序新來幣匯率維持動態穩定有助金融及經濟的發展請翻開十二月六本行透過多元政策工具落實維持物價穩定金融穩定等多重法定目標"},{"start":1853.771,"end":1858.883,"text":"最後14頁以上報告敬請各位委員會議指教謝謝"},{"start":1863.169,"end":1864.47,"text":"謝謝楊總裁的報告跟說明"},{"start":1897.046,"end":1899.892,"text":"謝謝 謝謝主席楊總裁是不是請楊總裁請楊總裁"},{"start":1909.259,"end":1926.974,"text":"林委員早總裁你好我請教根據媒體的報導央行今年以來定期的存單未到期的餘款明顯下降市場資金獲得易注上半年釋放資金活水超過一兆元"},{"start":1929.971,"end":1954.444,"text":"這個台股的行情吸引了大批資金進場民眾包括世代同堂的情況 央行報告有提到將密切來關注股市融資槓桿這個變化以及銀行資金流入股市的情形那我請問楊總裁如何與金管會合作順利引導央行釋出的資金鼓勵銀行將資金"},{"start":1957.285,"end":1981.872,"text":"投放到非股市的交易需求有沒有想法是 委員委員的這個問題非常好給我這個機會來稍微澄清一下就是說在我們的理事會六月份的理事會我們的基調就是說要稍微偏緊的方向來走"},{"start":1982.532,"end":2009.924,"text":"那如果說我們從今年初又放出一兆多的資金出來的話那真的很顯然的跟我們所說的就有一點就不一樣了對到而止那就有出入了事實上是應該是這麼說就是說從今年初以來因為我們的稅收很好所以呢有很多的資金"},{"start":2011.523,"end":2024.411,"text":"據我了解可能是五六千億有可能喔就是被財政部的那個稅收因為他有一個帳戶在中央銀行的帳戶就被鎖在那邊了他沒有放出去"},{"start":2025.367,"end":2038.633,"text":"另外我們在最近才公佈我們最近才公佈我們中央銀行在第一季的時候我們賣匯了125億賣匯125億也是相當於把資金收回來這樣加起來大概就是我們存單減少的"},{"start":2048.042,"end":2062.192,"text":"的金額所以我就說我非常謝謝委員給我這個機會來說明說事實上我們在6月的時候理事會的時候我們就說我們會比較偏緊"},{"start":2064.074,"end":2085.433,"text":"那怎麼我們又會說我們又釋出了一兆多的資金出去那是因為被鎖住了以後市場的資金就稍微緊了所以銀行他就沒有錢再來就是說要來申請我們的存單所以存單才會這樣一路地剪下來你認為那個"},{"start":2090.327,"end":2118.292,"text":"那個總裁啊 是最近會不會約銀行來喝個咖啡這個來闡述一些認為說需要怎麼來配合的我想我們是密切注意啦那這個因為我們的房市呢都已經就是說已經是在一定的情況之下所以現在不會說動不動就請他們來也不大好意思"},{"start":2119.233,"end":2138.452,"text":"這個因為浪費他的時間那第二個呢股市到目前為止呢我認為呢我們還是密切的注意他特別是股市的這個部分呢是金管會是主管機關是應該是由他來主導的那我們事實上呢中央銀行呢也會密切的注意他好"},{"start":2139.133,"end":2163.491,"text":"那個總裁因為外資持續的賣超台股啦加大新台幣貶值的壓力那新台幣近日貶破32元的大關創三個月的新低點新低價那我請問央行外資領完股利後是我會繼續投入台灣的股市還是獲利了結將大部分的資金移往美國"},{"start":2165.412,"end":2182.557,"text":"就以前的經驗來看第一個他偶爾他也會把他的股利留在這邊但是偶爾的時候他也會把他的股利把它匯出去所以要看他自己本身的投資的策略是怎麼樣"},{"start":2185.328,"end":2199.206,"text":"總裁你認為柳樹理論還是央行調節匯率的態度嗎是當然匯率一定是要讓它波動的但是央行也不是說讓它上下波動的幅度太大"},{"start":2199.988,"end":2213.449,"text":"我們也要讓它就是說有事的那個波動弧度是不大的除非是颱風那所以呢也就是說是讓它是在穩定的狀況之下呢有一些的變化"},{"start":2215.578,"end":2237.272,"text":"總裁 金管會預計2027年推動美元計價鼓勵政策若台積電率先導入美元的配息就央行的角度來看美元計價的鼓勵政策是否有助於減少新台幣短期的匯率大幅度的波動"},{"start":2238.722,"end":2251.376,"text":"我想應該是會有幫忙啦有幫忙因為就是說就廠商來講就外資來講的話台積電譬如說像台積電他發放新台幣給他那他發放新台幣的時候他是要先賣匯"},{"start":2259.685,"end":2264.109,"text":"然後外資要領到新台幣了他又要買匯所以賣匯跟買匯的這個中間就會稍微有一點麻煩那這樣的話可能也會影響到匯率剛好如果說匯率如果說是我們要穩定的他又一直在賣匯或是他一直在買匯"},{"start":2282.907,"end":2294.904,"text":"多多少少也會影響到匯率的波動那個總裁因為足跡總數近日發布六月消費者物價指數年增率擴大至2.6%連續兩個月破2%的通膨警戒線"},{"start":2301.332,"end":2323.074,"text":"並創17個月以來的新高顯示物價壓力持續的升溫那台股龍井呈現K型化但多數人是沒有趕的民眾最明顯趕到物價上漲的地方就是來自日常飲食的便當小吃等等那對於央行"},{"start":2323.915,"end":2352.401,"text":"預估今年下半年通膨將逐漸降溫全年CPI年增率可望控制在百分之二以下本息沒有我是認為沒有這麼的樂觀面對極端的天候還有群流感可能影響農產品供給包括中年的問題油會影響整個畜牧飼料價格上漲這些因素都可能會推升整個物價"},{"start":2352.961,"end":2358.866,"text":"那個總裁你有什麼看法對 事實上對於低所得的階層來看事實上是他們也會有一些感覺不過整體來看的話不管就是說我們國內的機構或是國外的著名的機構對我們台灣的通膨的預測他們還是覺得我們應該是還是算是溫和的"},{"start":2380.323,"end":2384.104,"text":"除了就是說我們本身是控制在2%以下還有相較其他的主要的國家來講的話我們台灣的通膨能還算是溫和委員在講的這個部分我覺得也有道理不過我也跟委員報告中央銀行還是可以密切的來關注它反正我們還有時間我們還有時間來觀察它"},{"start":2405.652,"end":2422.47,"text":"這是第一點第二點呢我們來看看油價現在最近這一兩天油價雖然是已經又因為美伊的不確定性在上升下來不過呢從我們的報告我們可以看到就是說那這個油價呢是跟是已經下降到"},{"start":2423.551,"end":2446.213,"text":"在美伊戰爭之前的水準所以應該會比較樂觀的油價如果下來的話輸入性通膨就會比較緩解另外為了製作生肖套幣央行每年都有固定的購買這些白銀的需求去年受到白銀價格大漲"},{"start":2447.775,"end":2468.05,"text":"馬聯套幣一套要2450元那2026年初白銀的價格來到120美元左右那如今回落到每盎司58到62美元區間有專家預估白銀年底可能會往上升每盎司可能到80"},{"start":2469.711,"end":2489.166,"text":"那2027年進一步挑戰110到130元左右那既然每年都要購買白銀的需求本行是希望說央行在適時的時候來評估購入價格相對較低的白銀讓每年生效套幣價格能夠穩定維持減輕整個民眾購買的負擔總裁你認為呢"},{"start":2494.39,"end":2499.434,"text":"好 我想委員的這個建議很好啦對啊 你價格低的時候過去來啊我們以前我們大部分都是整批啦那如果說像委員這樣來建議的話我們還用分批的方式對啊 你年度裡面你認為都是在"},{"start":2511.882,"end":2529.968,"text":"某個價錢是最高 某個價錢最低最低的時候買進來你才可以很穩定的每年花個套幣一套多少錢不然的話像今年你到最後買的價格那麼高當然你 章本求利你本身就是要那麼高你才划算嘛這個建議很好那最後一個 北溪"},{"start":2532.089,"end":2547.382,"text":"昨天有問財政部討論新青岸2.0案何時對外公布莊部長表示因為外界持續有不同的意見來財政部目前正在檢視但一定會在7月底以前兩週內公布為了改善少子化的問題財政部"},{"start":2548.823,"end":2577.924,"text":"除了提出相關減稅方案外傳在新青康2.0方案中準備針對婚育的家庭推出加碼政策將貸款額度上限從一千萬調到一千五百萬新青康2.0政策傳言不斷方案似乎還有新的變動那我請問央行是否贊成改善這個少子化問題在未來的新青康2.0政策中有條件給予"},{"start":2578.604,"end":2600.16,"text":"婚育家庭不同的貸款額度我想就是說新興安這個我們也有提供意見啦但是基本上我總覺得這個新興安財政部是主管機關另一個很重要的參與者也是內政部所以也就是說內政部的意見也蠻重要的所以我想基本上我們還是尊重財政部跟內政部的意見"},{"start":2608.806,"end":2612.388,"text":"謝謝好 謝謝我們結束林德福委員的質詢接下來請吳秉瑞委員主席麻煩請楊航楊總裁楊總裁吳委員早總裁早是這個"},{"start":2639.639,"end":2657.086,"text":"本來大家都認為說阿美伊是不是要達成和平談判確認結果伊朗又去對赫姆斯海峽通行的船隻發射了飛彈所以又引起兩個直接的衝突這是這一兩天最新的變化你認為這個變化會有什麼影響就是說"},{"start":2663.221,"end":2677.813,"text":"這個會對市場 本來就是說市場它是在慢慢的一個calm down下來但是好像看起來 雙方之間的這個默契還不是非常的堅固"},{"start":2678.814,"end":2681.797,"text":"所以偶爾還會有小衝突所以也就是說油價本來是已經跌到70現貨布蘭特已經跌到像我們報告裡面就跌到跟戰爭之前的都一樣不過這一兩天又稍微反彈回來"},{"start":2701.937,"end":2706.383,"text":"不過這個就是說這種uncertainty市場還是會price in會把它考慮進去那這個也就是說還是值得去密切的關注它我的看法是我個人的觀點我認為伊朗"},{"start":2721.3,"end":2742.205,"text":"這個國家內部對於和談還有很嚴重的分歧可能鴿派的願意和談還有鷹派的在和談中還會想辦法動用他手上可以運用的武力對這個和談也會有破壞的效果所以伊朗本身內部可能意見沒有很一致"},{"start":2743.285,"end":2762.17,"text":"那產生這個結果就使得這個動盪的時間可能會延長所以這個不確定性就會再增加那現在那個美國新的聯準會主席花雪上台之後那本來大家就是期望說是不是"},{"start":2763.308,"end":2787.559,"text":"有可能因為川普的意見他是想要降低利率因為美國國債那麼多他利率那麼高變成他光還這個利率就對他來講是一個非常大的負擔對美國財政來講是非常不利所以他長期來講當然希望降低利率可是跟現實的狀況是會有一些距離第一個衝突沒有結束這個"},{"start":2790.356,"end":2797.643,"text":"很有趣啊我也聽川普在推特上面講自己在那個"},{"start":2798.829,"end":2823.797,"text":"社群上面講說非農就業增加那麼多代表美國的經濟很強勁這當然是上個月的事這個月非農就業是不如預期的那經濟強勁你們說也要升息經濟不行你們也要升息所以這個是是不是會有一點矛盾在美國要怎麼樣狀況下他才有比較有機會能夠降息"},{"start":2825.519,"end":2831.345,"text":"美國會在於他的勞動市場確實就像委員說的他的肥農就業的情況也就是說他的勞動市場確實已經是Drop的很厲害"},{"start":2844.759,"end":2859.669,"text":"但是看起來好像他是好不好一點點然後又是好所以就是說就像剛剛委員在講事實上美國的經濟啊以目前來跟其他的先進國家來比較的話美國金是最好的金是最好的"},{"start":2859.949,"end":2881.48,"text":"那問題是美國的利率降不下來一直會是高利率就會造成美國的過度美元的過度強勢你看最近美元實在超級強勢除了中國這個外匯管制國家那個部分之外其他的主要貨幣對美元都是貶值的嘛那原因就是你美元的利率那麼高"},{"start":2883.322,"end":2889.654,"text":"錢有一個特徵,錢會往獲利高的地方去水往低處流,錢往獲利高的地方去"},{"start":2891.923,"end":2919.365,"text":"大家說為什麼日幣會越來越弱因為就算日本央行升息它的利率才1%而已啊那美國的話3%多 將近4%那如果日本的貸款是容易的話從日本貸款換成美元去美國投資還可以賺利率先不管匯差的問題那何況看起來美元繼續強勢那匯差反而還會賺雙重賺 不會只有賺利率所以這是會導致美元很過度強勢"},{"start":2920.526,"end":2937.991,"text":"那這個美元一直過度強勢對台灣到底是好還是不好 你的看法美元強勢的話 基本上因為美元雖然是強勢 沒有錯就是說它的利率也比較高不過我總覺得我們台灣的經濟也很好"},{"start":2938.911,"end":2953.902,"text":"我們台灣的經濟也很好基本上你看看我們的出口經濟成長率那麼高出口也非常好我們的物價也控制得好所以基本上這些基本條件可以作為抵擋美元強勢的一個情況"},{"start":2957.99,"end":2969.641,"text":"對 但是當然我們如果台灣的錢我們如果比較不好的名字叫熱錢啦也跑到美國去那也要想要賺他的利率想要賺他的匯率那這會導致這個"},{"start":2972.912,"end":2998.504,"text":"外匯的增加就是流到美元區去那這個當然會導致台幣的貶值那台幣的貶值對台灣來講有利有弊啊利的是出口的時候我的這個報價的時候是跟人家覺得說你就是比以前便宜當然這個是比較因為別的國家韓國還有其他國家搞不好就更便宜因為他們貶的更多但是你台灣受不了強勢啊因為強勢的話我們是一個"},{"start":3001.693,"end":3020.085,"text":"出口導向的國家我們其實需要做很多的外貿所以也不能過度強勢當然現在美元是強勢可是我們在其他貨幣裡面相對的台幣還是比其他貨幣貶的要少就是總裁你剛剛講的因為我們這邊的各種好的條件這樣長期累積下來對我們的製造業會有什麼樣的影響"},{"start":3024.407,"end":3049.676,"text":"我想就是說基本上我們比較不擔心說美元強勢就是說它利率高基本上我們的外匯我們的廠商的外匯的供需基本上它是比較平衡我的意思就是說我們自己的廠商是比較平衡倒是外資的供需比較不平衡"},{"start":3050.968,"end":3073.671,"text":"外資的這個部分特別是外資的這個部分第一個它有股率的時候它那個股率也蠻大的都是由它分配的光7月我們台灣就要發幾千億的股市所以我們稍微就是比較我們匯率的一個波動主要我個人是覺得是外資的進出比較能夠影響到我們的匯率"},{"start":3074.372,"end":3096.031,"text":"倒是我們本身的廠商呢不會就是說是因為美國的利率高然後大家出去啦不是製造業的問題是資本市場的問題資本市場的問題錢跑來跑去是是是那主要的還是資本市場因為美國最近有很多大公司他在證券市場在籌資像譬如說過去SPEX現在未來幾間大公司"},{"start":3097.592,"end":3121.722,"text":"要去預購那個股票的時候就要先鎖定資金因為鎖都鎖很大甚至鎖到幾千億美金那金額是非常大所以他從整個亞洲股是抽了很多美元美金回去美國所以是這幾天我們的成交量也好我們的動能稍微有不足的狀況所以但是央行在面對這樣的狀況的時候"},{"start":3123.479,"end":3134.631,"text":"如果它過度流動你又必須稍微你剛剛前面委員講的那個流資效應你也會稍微要干預一點要調節一下流動性要調節用調節這個名詞是比較好問題是你在調節的時候你要注意到"},{"start":3140.638,"end":3159.956,"text":"如何讓美國能夠了解因為他一直在注意我們還是一個外匯他們還在注意我們是不是一個外匯管制的問題事實上我跟委員報告第一個我們是管理沒有管制事實上資金外資要進出進出都相當第二點第二"},{"start":3163.479,"end":3176.431,"text":"講到那個委員講到美國的財政部啊我跟委員報告事實上呢我們跟美國財政部溝通非常良好他們了解就是說我們在市場的一個市場的那個調節的情況呢他們都"},{"start":3179.013,"end":3207.389,"text":"他們都非常了解而且我們對他也非常坦白我們也不會就是說隱瞞什麼事情不會包括就是說我們這一季我們干預多少我們都公佈啊我們都公佈那個數據啊都是千真萬確的所以他對我們也是相當信任的兩個國家之間對於這個外匯這個來往這個有這樣子的信任就非常重要就很重要啦因為我們受不了被美國"},{"start":3208.49,"end":3231.565,"text":"制裁當然這個機會非常的小但是我們因為有很努力在做這個工作溝通的工作持續我到現在還是一直我的觀點是央行對台灣最重要就是要穩定物價那這個當然穩定物價就跟利率跟匯率都有關係那這個大家很努力啦謝謝你我覺得央行工作做得很好繼續努力謝謝委員的鼓勵支持謝謝"},{"start":3239.182,"end":3240.304,"text":"現在主席有請楊總裁請總裁"},{"start":3257.856,"end":3262.963,"text":"最近歐洲央行論壇主題在討論AI所帶來的金融風險在8月份的時候國際央行總裁年會也要討論有關於AI所帶來風險的主題"},{"start":3274.237,"end":3292.646,"text":"我相信那個總裁應該8月會去參加嘛對不對在8月參加的同時呢我不曉得總裁會不會分享呢最近呢央行也有討論到關於金融穩定的報告當中也特別闢出一個AI的專欄也就是說呢市場過度集中AI的相關產業"},{"start":3294.006,"end":3311.117,"text":"外資資金對匯市可能造成的挑戰跟衝擊以及有FOMO的現象恐失良機投資人的槓桿運用的狀況我覺得這三點都點到核心也點到重點可是問題是說你之所以強調AI的部分是不是意味著AI"},{"start":3312.557,"end":3326.777,"text":"的這個資金過度的集中所帶來股市的這個榮景已經有意識有意味著潛在的泡沫危機的可能性是不是這樣子事實上呢"},{"start":3328.427,"end":3355.058,"text":"我們如果說看這個MF一些國際機構包括PIS他們呢都會有一點concern有點擔心擔心就是說這個資金啊都是挪到這個AI去了AI的估價呢是不是太高這個股市呢股價呢是不是太高這個都是一直啊國際機構他們很"},{"start":3356.539,"end":3366.366,"text":"也就是說你一直擔心的所謂的信用資源過去集中在房市現在集中到股市集中到AI去了嘛所以不免會讓你擔心嘛對不對可是這樣的擔心的情況底下那個央行有一些現象有一種反其道而行你既然擔心的話"},{"start":3375.272,"end":3383.619,"text":"那為何央行去年六月底的時候未到期的定存單額金額是7,7405億可是到今年六月底卻是6,4107億簡單的講過去的一年央行等同於釋出的資金高達1,3298億如果是你擔心這些信用資源被濫用的話"},{"start":3400.854,"end":3420.819,"text":"那何以這在整個貨幣供給又持續在增加這是第一個現象而這貨幣供給的增加實質在增加之外我們看到另一個現象從銀行實質的利率也在走揚喔這是一個背離的狀況嘛對不對 總裁照說利率走揚的話"},{"start":3422.879,"end":3440.488,"text":"整個貨幣的流通的總額會縮少貨幣的供給增加反而利率會走陽這是一個很奇特的現象待會想要請總裁講一下究竟錢跑到哪裡去從銀行的放款6.2兆從去年6月底到今天5月不動產喔"},{"start":3443.61,"end":3461.471,"text":"你最關心的1.3兆股市反而是1.87兆製造業不過是1.02兆可是製造業當中的1.02兆當中AI的部分高達了0.79兆非AI的部分你所謂的傳統的部分不過是0.23兆"},{"start":3463.613,"end":3485.891,"text":"那這2300億 僅僅只有2300億喔 銀行販廣6.26兆喔其中6兆跑去的都是跟AI相關 跟股市相關 跟不動產相關的喔只有2300億是屬於我們一直在關心的這一個製造業會不會造成它的這個製造業有一種流動性的風險啊這兩種現象請總裁說明一下好不好OK 好"},{"start":3489.834,"end":3509.25,"text":"就是說委員的這個的質詢這道的質詢給我剛好我也非常感謝你給我這個機會來澄清事實上我們的存單從7兆多一直下降下降到現在6兆多"},{"start":3510.211,"end":3521.423,"text":"事實上不是我們把資金放出去我們在六月的理事會的時候我們在記者會我們就在講包括我們的新聞稿我們就說現在中央銀行是比較朝緊的方向去走"},{"start":3530.493,"end":3548.106,"text":"是緊喔是緊那緊啊現在呢你就說看到發現就是市場覺得就是說我們的那個貨幣供給呢我們的存單一直下降我們一直在提供那剛好是剛好這個概念是剛好是相反的其實是緊的只是收不回來而已我為什麼就是說存單下來為什麼是緊我現在跟委員報告第一個就是說因為我們的稅收非常好股市啊哇非常熱鬧你看那交易稅"},{"start":3559.594,"end":3581.059,"text":"交易稅從以前只有兩千億 三千億 四千億現在到一兆多每天的證交稅還有我們的企業營運得非常好所以他的稅也交得比較多所以有五 六千億在今年初以來就被鎖在財政部的帳戶裡面"},{"start":3582.419,"end":3606.75,"text":"這是第一點第二點呢我們在三月的時候在最近我們才公佈我們前第一季的時候呢我們賣費了一千兩百五十一百二十五億美元一百二十五億美元的話就三千多億啦加起來也就相當於快一兆啦也就是說我們我們賣美元收台幣嘛那所以呢"},{"start":3608.038,"end":3635.324,"text":"財政部鎖了五六千億我們收進來差額就跑到這邊了所以就是說資金不是貨幣供應增加而是反而是貨幣供給減少所以你後面的工具會朝緊的方向進行那之前現在信用你最擔心的是信用資源的部分現在分配不平均的情況底下可能會到傳產的部分有流動性的風險"},{"start":3636.544,"end":3660.102,"text":"有些人是整個呢還溢出來這種現象怎麼處理所以呢也就是說第一個我覺得就是說剛剛你也看到就說commercial paper的利率往上commercial paper的利率往上那個都是很多最近都是那個券商他去發行的然後由銀行去買所以他的利率就高啦"},{"start":3660.882,"end":3684.338,"text":"所以你緊縮 所以這個才講的對啊就是說我緊縮 我利率才會高啊那所以呢 也就是說那現在呢 委員呢 就在講到就是說中小企業 中小微企業那所以呢 也就是說中小微企業呢這一塊呢 行政院呢 政府呢就特別去注意它"},{"start":3685.88,"end":3700.536,"text":"那這樣子我等一下了解你的意思當然你剛剛提到外資的部分的這個匯市的風險對外資在7月7號的時候其實它透過什麼方式邁超前十大的這個ETF邁超前十大當中有八檔是ETF是"},{"start":3701.897,"end":3720.276,"text":"其中0050加7檔的主動性資金過去0050五六月的時候它賣超了100但是市價高達1000億但是後來又進增加有些人是想說這可能純粹是套利的方式但是會不會是它一種償錢的方式"},{"start":3723.407,"end":3742.089,"text":"因為你會逼他匯出嘛我沒有逼他匯出是他要匯出你限期要他匯出嘛他們不會多一個避風港嗎以前ETF的部分外資沒有買這麼多沒有有沒有注意到這個現象他最近外資在ETF持有非常高我跟委員報告"},{"start":3743.97,"end":3763.437,"text":"當外資呢 他在我們的股市啊 他獲利到達一個界限的時候呢他必須要怎麼樣 再重新再分配他不會就是說 這是一個投資的一個概念嘛不會把 不會就是說 我一直升 人家是停損的時候呢 他是停利啦"},{"start":3768.019,"end":3786.153,"text":"停利的意思就是他就要賣啊賣他就要出去剛剛委員就說我們中央銀行就要強迫他一直匯出去沒有沒有這回事不會那個總裁你剛剛回答都很好但是就一個AI是不是會造成一個潛在的泡沫你還是沒有正向回答我再跟你提一個啦"},{"start":3787.955,"end":3813.957,"text":"你剛剛有提到央行其實會有一些報告說消費跟財富朝向K型化產業也會朝向K型化以致你未來的利率工具其實不一定那麼方便使用這是第一然後股市其實也朝向K型化股市朝向K型化的情況底下很多股票漲翻天有些卻是找不到任何的支撐點甚至淪落成殭屍股"},{"start":3815.858,"end":3839.934,"text":"你看看我統計過去上千元的這個千金股總共到昨天為止有32家上市的部分上櫃的部分有17家總共49家但是其中你注意看跟AI相關本益比在50以下只有17家本益比超過100的有超過11家一般而言我們本益比都要20倍上下而已"},{"start":3840.914,"end":3866.589,"text":"結果這裡頭的這幾家當中有49家是純的AI股的概念股所以從股市的這種現象跟反應從資金流動的反應從信用資源的配置總體而言再加上國際的央行論壇也在討論AI再加上我們的文章討論到AI這你應該有潛在感受到AI的泡沫的這種危機吧 總裁"},{"start":3866.889,"end":3879.692,"text":"你要正式來面對這個問題我想AI是不是到目前是不是泡沫潛在啦潛在啦你是不是擔心是擔心啦當然我們中央銀行我們也是會擔心只是說我覺得這一次的AI它確實是真的是是一個有它的動力也是有它的基本面它AI的這個它是確實是有這個只是說那個信用"},{"start":3897.597,"end":3903.299,"text":"信用是不是槓桿信用是怎麼樣是不是過度過度擴張這個就是我沒必要擔心的最主要是在這裡不然的話AI應該就是說這個方向是對的這個是對的社會發展是對的"},{"start":3913.082,"end":3917.224,"text":"所以也就是說是因為他是對的所以你看看我們台灣的這個零組件的電子業的這邊自動性才會那麼的蓬勃發展也是在這裡這種現象其實在某個程度AI的浪潮當中一般而言是美國韓國台灣是受益但是同樣在受益過程當中我們隱藏了這種"},{"start":3938.213,"end":3939.734,"text":"但是政府必須要去注意這個"},{"start":3969.509,"end":3988.786,"text":"總裁 今天這份我們央行的報告總裁有從頭看到尾嗎是你看了嗎 對你看了感覺怎麼樣 寫得很好還是認為怎麼跟常態性寫的都一樣呢"},{"start":3990.283,"end":4014.04,"text":"我想總裁在這裡我看到了央行的報告我自己個人看到兩個核心的一個盲點這個報告我覺得還是跟之前央行的一個報告一樣你的通盤指數其實嚴重的失真那你就是靠政策的一個包裝包起來了"},{"start":4014.66,"end":4033.411,"text":"那你看到你的報告跟上半年CPEI 1.7那這一個歸功宜就是油電動漲跟你的稅的一個負減增這個好像形同就是把那個穩定物價的一個法定責任外包給行政部門"},{"start":4034.551,"end":4051.477,"text":"掩飾了政策退場以後的真實的一個物價的壓力況且你也忽視了資本市場的一個共波的一個動向那你在這個報告裡頭你把通膨把股市把房價把匯市切割成獨立的一個區塊去探討"},{"start":4053.547,"end":4080.785,"text":"你沒有看到我們現有的這個社會裡頭我們的股市漲得這麼厲害不管是四代同堂還是六代同堂大家借錢去炒股票獲利然後去買房然後竟然是用自己的信用貸款然後去買車這樣的一個交叉感染的風險然後把股市的信用擴張到監理責任全部推給金管會"},{"start":4083.507,"end":4090.312,"text":"我抱歉 我的報告讓委員有這樣的感覺我也總覺得是有一點抱歉不過第一點 你就說我們把它推給政府部門在通膨的部分不過我跟委員報告事實上要解決通膨有兩個因素"},{"start":4112.447,"end":4126.818,"text":"第一個就是說是cost push就是說是供給面的就是說像油價來的時候油價漲的時候導致供給面的cost push這個叫cost push另外一個是demand pull"},{"start":4127.939,"end":4156.477,"text":"裡面的pull就是說你的消費啦什麼的投資啦消費啦這些國內的消費非常的非常的熱絡導致你的通膨壓力所以就要分成兩種那第一種呢就是說cost push的時候呢基本上用中央銀行的這個利率政策呢是沒有效果的是沒有效的是沒有效果的那所以呢也就是說必須要cost push的時候呢就必須要供給面的措施"},{"start":4157.398,"end":4163.684,"text":"那供給面的措施就是政府現在所做的所以這個不是說我們中安院把通膨的問題全部推給也就是說造成通膨的因素如果我們從能源的政策我們來看在你報告裡頭你特別有提到了就是進口能源的價格在今年的年增率是44.79%"},{"start":4183.562,"end":4196.42,"text":"那也這個是你就是強調說這個是政府抑制能源價格的一個政策可是你看到了你六月份你六月份的能源的CPI年增率是13.29"},{"start":4198.923,"end":4215.269,"text":"所以我想再請教 請教就是說總裁六月的進口的物價的連增率你看喔 這個是升沒有跌喔然後政府的供給面的措施 我們那個七大措施 你看"},{"start":4216.869,"end":4244.399,"text":"油價雙緩不是雙漲那甚至我們的啞鈴是最低價的一個上限你的專案的一個緩占吸收至少是60%的一個漲幅那你關鍵的原物料那你這個稅減增延長到9月底你看又是一個很大的一個幅率那你的柴油 汽油 貨物 稅然後減增的幅度擴大到50%"},{"start":4246.4,"end":4266.144,"text":"瓦斯桶的那個貨物稅4月起開始減增50%等於是你每一桶你減了6.9塊錢那你4月到7月的民生天然物價天然氣還有你的桶裝瓦斯價格不變4月到9月的時候你的電價動漲那你的大眾運輸的票價動漲了6個月計程車油價的一個補助加碼到15000塊"},{"start":4274.966,"end":4297.647,"text":"那你所有的民生商品的物價你加強去監測你要緩緩囤積囤漲這個有沒有粉飾太平沒有我覺得沒有這個確實如果說政府不這樣子做的時候呢會全部他會整個就像我們的這個第二頁這邊所講的"},{"start":4298.968,"end":4303.59,"text":"它整個會波及到所有的產業去喔整個市場去喔那這個的話呢好那通膨呢如果說通膨一高漲的時候呢那中央銀行呢因為通膨高漲了以後呢中央銀行要用我們的利率政策在把它升息的時候呢那這個不得了"},{"start":4322.717,"end":4327.801,"text":"那這個不得了這個就是說為什麼為什麼在俄烏戰爭之後美國的那個美國的物價為什麼會跳得那麼高後來呢他整個要把他讓他下來的時候呢非常非常的困難你看到現在為止呢他還是三點多所以你覺得還是這個非常的不得了你覺得還是繼續要混事的讓他還賬啊那如果說政府不這樣子做的話所以呢我們不是這個不是混事太平啊"},{"start":4352.801,"end":4364.733,"text":"第二個我們要另外一個我們必須要再考慮到就是說假設假設你的財政負擔你沒辦法去承受的時候呢那你只好放棄"},{"start":4366.564,"end":4381.795,"text":"你只好忘記很多國家都是這樣子就是說用很多國外的這個國家的一個案例然後你來告訴我們說你這樣子就是就是把他這個輸入性的通盤的壓力你是把它控制住的所以這個是對的"},{"start":4384.576,"end":4412.93,"text":"對啊這是對的如果說不是這樣的話好那我們接著就我們中央銀行好那你就讓它通膨那麼高那中央銀行就一定要升息啊那升息的時候不是就是說大家都接輸嗎總長我再請教你你一個選擇性信用的管制最近你覺得這個管制的成效怎麼樣可是你一定會講說你覺得還不錯可是房價的漲幅我們還是全球之首"},{"start":4413.87,"end":4427.02,"text":"黃漿沒有跌下來啊 你的股市很熱啊 可是黃市很冷啊這個不是一個健康的市場你一邊喔 你稍微揮露啊 一邊放在冰箱裡 會刺激啊這個冰冷二重天太久了啊我現在就要回答剛剛你第一頁的那個"},{"start":4436.287,"end":4462.401,"text":"總裁你聽我講完我跟你講這個冰火二重天最可憐的最後受傷的還是每個月用現金流的生活的這些人就是我們最基層的這些老百姓那你怎麼告訴我說你把這個世代同堂剛才我告訴你的就是說我從皇室借來我從皇室我把房子抵押了然後去借錢來"},{"start":4464.242,"end":4473.407,"text":"放到股市去我把我的車子貸款然後去借到去投資股市這個問題我們要正視啊對啦 有啦剛剛委員就說"},{"start":4480.47,"end":4494.476,"text":"我們通膨我們給就是說這個責任是政府的中央銀行沒有事那現在呢你又把就是說股市呢這個我們就推給那個我們就推給金管會對啊你就推給金管會啊"},{"start":4502.32,"end":4521.248,"text":"我想中央銀行的做事的態度不是推來推去的這是我們一貫的做法該我們處理的我們會我們處理那一樣的就是說股市一直以來我們在這邊也在講一直以來股市的主管機關就是金管會"},{"start":4526.031,"end":4534.498,"text":"這個大家都認同了但是它會涉及到信用的問題涉及到信用會有兩個問題第一個銀行的信用銀行放錢給大眾然後投資股市另外一個是券商提供投資股市所以也就是說"},{"start":4549.19,"end":4562.818,"text":"就金管會來講我想的我不是說推給他這兩個他都有責任我們中央銀行的責任是在於就是說銀行你過度銀行如果說過度給投資人去炒股的話我們這邊也有提到所以中央銀行沒有就說我們完全把這個責任推出去"},{"start":4575.806,"end":4594.442,"text":"你看當今我們國內的一個銀行跟房市跟股市各種壽性之間有沒有互相交互聯動的關係可是我從你的報告裡頭看起來好像沒有這些聯動的關係是不是會後提供一個報告給你"},{"start":4596.984,"end":4605.872,"text":"好謝謝總裁謝謝謝謝謝謝謝謝委員的指教謝謝我們結束賴慧媛委員的質詢接下來請林黛樺委員好有請總裁請總裁"},{"start":4622.162,"end":4633.598,"text":"好 剛才我們總體資金應該要氣實向虛這個流錯項這個本央行也不要盲目的打房引導油資來製造精簡補貼"},{"start":4637.624,"end":4661.622,"text":"這個首購族那我們現在資金的轉向呢就從這也都是你們在第二季的禮監事會當中所呈現的數字你股市的信貸有暴增1.87兆不動產放款增加1.3兆製造業放款僅為增1.02兆那到底這樣的比例符合或者是適合我們國家嗎"},{"start":4663.303,"end":4692.463,"text":"本席認為不妥因為沒有所謂最適的比例但是對於我們本國來講我們有地緣政治啊我們在於這個面對地緣政治的時候我們的國防自主我們的相關的非紅供應業的建立包括我的糧食的自主率等等所以我當然而且第二個很得天獨厚的也不是說得天獨厚是整個長久以來台灣人民這幾年來所累積的一個產業的生態系"},{"start":4693.443,"end":4696.826,"text":"我們即使是傳統產業任何的傳統產業包括講說扣件業我們就一個很完整的產業鏈你包括我們也因為打造這樣很精實的製造業的一個生態系所以在面對我們的政治區域風險的時候我們對我們國家的一個特殊性來講我們應該在製造業的販款應該要大大的增加"},{"start":4721.005,"end":4734.156,"text":"所以在我們製造業當中的投入都應該是不動產或股市的三倍以上這都認為本席的建議或者你建立不起我自主的國防 我自主的產業所以這樣子的資金我們是應該做個引導的檢討"},{"start":4741.121,"end":4749.445,"text":"所以我也期待就是說這個央行啊能夠把油資啊能夠推動產業升級但是現在資金並沒有真的進入到實體產業那在轉型最關鍵的時刻是反而這些基礎的產業資金性斷缺的不是單一產業的問題是國家經濟發展的危機"},{"start":4760.43,"end":4777.118,"text":"所以我們的無人機產業我們的航太精密工業以及在地的傳統產業的飛鴻供應鏈是不是難在這一波油資當中得到挹注呢所以在這邊本席就是直接的建議那應該跨部會的飲水工程專案艇實業的製作製造央行應該發動"},{"start":4781.32,"end":4802.813,"text":"定調引導的訊息化消極房賭為積極的引導跨部會的協作會同財政部經濟部對齊國家核心的產業戰略那方法是什麼呢專案的低利融資與提高信用保證陳述如此一來才有可能把房市"},{"start":4803.593,"end":4817.742,"text":"股市退下來的的前置油資實質的引導進入到飛鴻供應鏈與台灣製造那總裁你怎麼看呢我覺得啊我覺得那個委員也在跟我上課"},{"start":4819.444,"end":4834.043,"text":"我覺得委員寫得很好第一個 跨部會協作會同財政部 經濟部對國家產業戰略專案低利融資以提高信用保證層數事實上我跟委員報告"},{"start":4836.218,"end":4852.306,"text":"我們在開會的時候我們也會我們事實上我們剛剛你提到的就是說我們資金到需要時的這邊比較缺乏事實上在這個部分那個政府現在已經是在做了"},{"start":4853.286,"end":4857.527,"text":"好但是我們現在的數據在你第二季所呈現你看我這個簡報我的信貸1.87兆不動產1.3兆製造業才1.02兆所以這樣的比例是不對的是是是所以對這個也就是說為什麼那來啦總裁啦既然你也認同我們自己的流向應該導向是不是在您能夠跟跨部會的來做這樣的議題的討論是是是對對對"},{"start":4881.713,"end":4884.775,"text":"好那再來我講到這個房市降溫其實這草房這件事情來講總裁你認為有沒有達到目的"},{"start":4892.814,"end":4915.382,"text":"我覺得我要跟誇獎我要肯定總裁的是打投機炒房打投機打炒房這個是我覺得這是全民公司即使是不動產所有相關業者大家都認同那這一個到底投機的這個行為有沒有已經抑止了總裁你們的理監事會怎麼認定呢"},{"start":4916.882,"end":4937.18,"text":"事實上我們就有三個因素說我們還是要持續觀察我們有三個因素第一個因素就是說我們剛剛就是你在講的就是說他的信用資源本來我們是說要這個信用資源要到實體產業去結果他就到股市去"},{"start":4939.102,"end":4946.586,"text":"所以就是說它的集中度下降以前我們就說讓你的集中度下降但是它下降了如果說你認為在我們投機這個投機這個炒作這個房地產的部分已經降溫的話確實有抑制但是我們信用管制是不是應該要有第二階段的調整我在包括本席的辦公室都已經白紙黑字的收到"},{"start":4967.958,"end":4996.732,"text":"一些中小殷實的房地產他撐不下去他們在信用的當中是非常非常好的從來沒有什麼信用瑕疵可是因為你這樣的陳述的這樣的限制之下齊頭式的平等的信用管制已經打擊到不只打擊到殷實的確實這個信用貸款非常好的而且也不做炒房的都是在做自用住宅的這些中小型的這個"},{"start":4998.833,"end":5021.792,"text":"這個房屋 這個房地產業者這個房屋業者就是建商業者但是你也同時打擊到實質的換屋者這個也是我實質聽到的我真的需要放房我現在就是二房那我因為有孩子了或者是說孩子想要跟我們結婚了即使要跟家裡一起住我需許放房"},{"start":5022.812,"end":5043.597,"text":"那政策應該是從戶數管理轉向風險與信用的管理拒絕一刀切所以房市降溫已經確定指標了這個是本席給你肯定的退按量的銳減受信水位的下降包括量縮價穩從市場過去的瘋狂搶購到現在轉入去跨庫存的階段所以呢而且全台的房價確實也鬆動進入到這個修正的格局"},{"start":5052.279,"end":5074.67,"text":"所以在這修正格局當中我們還是回歸政策我們是要讓人民住得起買得起這是兩個層次住者有其物我可以是租給他住者有其物我可以讓他買得起也是住者有其物好那到底什麼叫做讓就台灣來講我們到底什麼叫做住者有其物他的負擔標準是什麼好那"},{"start":5075.41,"end":5082.455,"text":"本席也有爬書啦按照房價所得比就是購物的痛苦指數針對世界銀行的定義以開發國家你不吃不喝的這樣的總所得一年的年收入的1.8年到5.5年"},{"start":5091.661,"end":5094.724,"text":"也就是你的總年收入的1.8倍到5.5倍也就是1.8年到5.5年不吃不喝這個是針對以太化國家認為這是在合理的國際的房價所得比那開發中國家呢是"},{"start":5107.995,"end":5119.926,"text":"你的這個三到六倍那對於房貸的負擔率每個月的這個房貸佔月收入的是三分之一以下好 台灣全國平均我不敢講因為誰落差待到我就把它空格但是我們的房貸負擔率確實是佔了四成二這是平均喔"},{"start":5127.412,"end":5149.043,"text":"但是如果放眼整個區域來講現在內政部不動產資訊平台所提供的台北市是不吃不喝26到34年也就是你的年收入平均年收入靠掉了你的淨所得的26倍到34倍是全台購屋嚴重最重的甚至是世界排名第一數一數二的"},{"start":5150.403,"end":5157.747,"text":"那新北市跟台中也是要落到不吃不喝11到11倍這個我本席都認為這樣的官方數據我都還很存疑那台北市的房貸的這個負擔率呢台北市都達到換6成5耶 天啊所以這樣的負擔量到底配合你央行你的信貸的緊縮你是要達到什麼程度才讓我人民買得起"},{"start":5177.336,"end":5181.479,"text":"租得起如果租得起這是新青安市財政部的那我就不跟你檢討但是如果是買得起這件事情你這樣的緩降那投機也易住了那對於我的政策目標讓人民買得起你要達到什麼程度"},{"start":5194.588,"end":5214.944,"text":"你要達到已開發國家的年所得的不吃不喝1.8年到5.5年嗎就才是喔而且讓我每個人民他的月收入房貸佔月收入到三成以下你是要打房打到不要說打房是你的房價希望趨向降到這個程度嗎是這樣嗎"},{"start":5219.649,"end":5234.225,"text":"我不知道總裁你要不要回應一下委員的這個PowerPoint我們帶回去所以我覺得是要一個目標你的信帶你要達到什麼目的你要告訴我們人民你的意見都值得參考我們帶回去"},{"start":5239.21,"end":5264.944,"text":"那所以本席在這邊就直接的調這具在你的信用管制之下的大原則我認為應該要進度調整了你不要一刀切切到換屋族切到真的首購族所以差異化的這個管理換款換屋的切結期包括優良建商的分級這一點很重要優良建商不是大建商喔只要是"},{"start":5265.544,"end":5277.008,"text":"因此他信貸沒瑕疵他過往的紀錄也沒有投資你也應該是優良建商的分級不過我很簡單的回答包括檢討高價住宅的門檻以現在我高雄就好過往可能一坪12萬10萬就可以現在沒有一坪18萬到23萬甚至25萬是不可能造價"},{"start":5291.753,"end":5300.301,"text":"所以你這邊的高價房屋公司我要放屋的時候兩房變三房的時候一下就突破4000萬我跟委員報告啦很簡單的回應你剛剛就是說對我們對鎖過的要限制他我們對換屋的我們限制他事實上呢我們對鎖過的我們也沒有限制他我們對換屋主我們就是說你18個月之內"},{"start":5318.017,"end":5321.198,"text":"我認為這個政策應該稍微再放寬我直接具體建議總裁你待會去研究適度提高換屋族的貸款乘數為7到7乘5因為已經沒有投機這件行為了你的預售屋這個已經沒有這個紅單已經不轉了那放屋的竊竊期延長先買後賣的"},{"start":5341.244,"end":5347.369,"text":"這個舊屋出售的切節期因為你希望人家一年內賣掉你的舊屋如果市場上有那麼熱沒問題問題現在市場上沒有那麼熱所以當我要換屋的時候"},{"start":5354.601,"end":5360.643,"text":"一年半啊但是現在的一年半不太可能事實上沒有事實上大部分的都是在一年之內他就可以換屋那這個我覺得你跟我的語情我們所說到的我現在講的是民意我個人沒有要換屋我個人也絕對不自產所以我現在講的是我高雄居民在換屋當中尤其首購當中這兩個出去給我的澄清然後再來"},{"start":5383.068,"end":5397.96,"text":"優良建商這是我白紙黑紙我會把人民給我的陳情直接轉函給你對於優良建商的認定你應該要放寬土建農的融資中小企業我現在是不是為大建商講話為我真的中小企業財務健全從來不炒房的紀錄的來跟你陳情檢討高房價這也是限制到我換屋主"},{"start":5405.906,"end":5422.076,"text":"隨便一換我都會碰到四千萬人牌為什麼豪宅在台北市交七千萬在高雄我就一定是設定四千萬這個豪宅的定義有問題這四千萬在高雄已經不算豪宅了你在我的選區 仁武區就一般的小資族"},{"start":5422.916,"end":5442.613,"text":"那個都是幾乎你沒有準備的2500到3000你幾乎買不起耶所以包括換屋換大的包括三人房這個東西好再來謝謝主席那這個部分總裁你稍微回應一下吧你認為你要研究要怎麼的時程是怎麼回應"},{"start":5444.755,"end":5467.408,"text":"我們會把你的這個拿回去study啦你下一次的禮監事會是什麼時候我們是九月九月的時候可以針對本席的這些意見能夠有一個具體的回應嗎好嗎好 我們結束林黛樺委員的質詢不過總裁可以就剛才一些質詢的內容到各縣市去看看各縣市差異其實是有的好 謝謝我們接下來請劉書斌委員"},{"start":5485.679,"end":5487.664,"text":"好 謝謝主席 那有請彭總裁"},{"start":5498.058,"end":5506.362,"text":"總裁早 央行自從推出第七波的信用管制以來確實抑制了投機的熱錢進入房市2026年的數據整體看來房市是呈現量縮價格盤整的格局我們看到的是上個月總裁也表示說短期內不會再加碼 第八波"},{"start":5518.809,"end":5542.025,"text":"但是並表示這個任務已經完成了那我們這幾年看到的房市政策呢市場的解讀依然是說財政部呢是在踩油門啊央行是在踩煞車啦好那我們又看到是可是這個上次第七波呢對於一些由小換大的自住換屋主呢其實造成了有些傷害那我們繼續再往下看的時候看到說央行因應"},{"start":5543.266,"end":5549.151,"text":"這個民怨在三月份的時候稍微做了一些的修訂就是把第二戶的貸款上限從五成稍微調到六成但是面對的這個不同的購屋族的這種需求的話呢央行總裁央行你們的態度都是說要滾動式的修正那本席就想要問的是說呢這個滾動式的檢討來回應政策利率的詢問時呢"},{"start":5568.329,"end":5575.931,"text":"到底什麼是影響中央銀行在滾動是減少政策利率的因素那七月的時候看到什麼樣的房市的問題了你在講這個政策利率基本上我們的政策利率就是說是針對通膨但是會影響到會銀行在訂定他們的貸款的"},{"start":5592.689,"end":5601.497,"text":"他的貸款的利率是由他自己來決定的所以呢也就是說我們訂定政策利率但是呢"},{"start":5603.452,"end":5624.379,"text":"政策利率會影響到他們的存款利率他們的存款利率就會影響到他要加碼多少作為他的放款的利率所以呢也就是說放款利率他要加碼多少是由他來決定的但是因為你政策利率但我現在的意思在於說一般是認為說你們是在踩煞車"},{"start":5626.579,"end":5641.984,"text":"基本上到目前為止的話呢我們如果說選擇性信用管制到目前為止的話呢我們就說是第七波第七波到這裡的時候呢我們應該可以算是說他還是踩煞車啦"},{"start":5642.884,"end":5652.555,"text":"他一直踩煞車所以也就在這裡至於到這裡的以後要怎麼樣我們的滾動式的檢討就是說我們到這裡的時候好下一步我們要怎麼走"},{"start":5661.105,"end":5670.448,"text":"對 但是我說你影響你會做這樣去轉彎的原因或是改變的原因的項目是什麼這是本席要問的那現在就所以呢也就是說我們有提了三個意見嘛三個意見我們第一個意見就是說當時我們就說你那個集中度你對房地產的那個放款的集中度呢"},{"start":5687.894,"end":5710.471,"text":"在很高的時候是36.71那我們覺得36.71太高了一直高上去從35左右34點幾一直上升到36.71很高所以現在目前它是已經因為我們選擇性信用管制下去了以後它就慢慢的下來下來到哪裡下來到35.2左右"},{"start":5715.354,"end":5731.401,"text":"35.2的話我們就說有改善但是我們認為就是說它的改善是它的資金房市還是有增加但是它有一部分的資金不是到產業去它是到股市去"},{"start":5735.043,"end":5739.565,"text":"我們認為到股市去跟我們原先要規劃就是說你要到產業去所以我們就說這一點我們要繼續觀察這是第一個第二個我們從2020年我們台灣的房價就一直在上升一直上升 上升到目前為止我們的房價它的成長它的成長率是"},{"start":5763.277,"end":5785.368,"text":"世界裡面是最高的 我們在報告裡面都有講它很高啊 而且我們的房屋的負擔率也是最高的所以是房價成長率是高的 第三個呢第三個就是說 其他的政府的政策 如果說推出來了以後呢那會不會影響到房地產 我們必須要觀察"},{"start":5786.667,"end":5804.466,"text":"好所以就是新清安了嘛對不對這CIPO可能就是新清安了對不對他也是包括啦對那我想請問說那財政部月底要公布了新清安的這個方案央行對於房貸放款的態度就是因為你們大概內部應該都有討論過有有討論過基本上我們會尊重財政部跟內政部的一個意見"},{"start":5804.986,"end":5826.127,"text":"那財政部基本上是要往說真正的把這種目前的一些弊病的部分要修訂嘛那你們看到是弊病例如說這個一千就是所得的部分啊如果兩百萬啊都沒有做限制嘛我們也有提供意見給財政部啦大概意見是什麼方向呢意見的方向"},{"start":5828.129,"end":5832.371,"text":"我們就說寬限期有一點長但是後來他們解釋他們認為寬限期用到那麼長的不高這是第一個"},{"start":5842.658,"end":5869.094,"text":"五年寬限期就是這麼大部位對五年就是說應用到這個寬限期五年的他在所有的在所有的那個那個那個申請清清安的那個的貸款的人不高他說只有大概20%而已第二個呢他認為銀行呢可以做很嚴格的一個控管我也覺得就是說他們這樣子解釋我總覺得他們講的也有道理啊"},{"start":5870.072,"end":5893.65,"text":"那40年的還款代款期應該怎麼樣40年因為現在如果說救一些所得低的人40年給他我覺得也是應該可以啦但是也不是說你訂40年他銀行就一定都要給他40年"},{"start":5894.673,"end":5906.74,"text":"他也要看他的那個什麼所得情況啊他的信用狀況啊他要求40年的時候他也不一定會給他40年他也許給他只有30年這個是銀行他也必須要去把關的因為銀行會把關的部分那就是說你已經把你的意見有跟了對所以你就說40年好像就很長但是呢銀行也不見得會給他40年"},{"start":5921.567,"end":5942.672,"text":"好那還有其他的您特別關注的我覺得我們大概就是這幾個意見那我們繼續再往下看不好意思怎麼轉到那個好繼續往下去看另外在幾個月之前我們有去看到央行所謂的財經公司那這個部分看到的QW"},{"start":5944.472,"end":5967.92,"text":"TWQR的這個成功整合40家的這個行動的支付讓大家在買東西付帳的時候就透過這個國家級的QR Code就可以再過跨平台的跨銀行的這個支付很順的部分但是呢我們看到的是這個當然我本席就是予以肯定啦但是有個問題是說呢當地方的政府福利全面轉向數位發行最需要"},{"start":5969.02,"end":5993.221,"text":"照顧的這個長照或是長照或者是社會救助的高齡長者或是弱勢族群往往面臨著嚴重的數位落差的時候請問總裁在是不是要同意找財經公司在配合辦理這項業務的時候如何去確保這些弱勢的民眾的權益不會被排擠而漏接啊我請那個業務局局長來回答你這個問題好嗎好"},{"start":5996.659,"end":6020.9,"text":"據我們了解是因為現在那個用戶在用TWQ付款碼的時候因為這個手機有截圖還有給人家翻拍這樣的情況所以造成截圖之後被不肖者翻拍之後拿去做詐騙的一個付款那你們怎麼因應呢現在財經公司已經跟參加機構講好要辦理的事項第一項就是取消這個付款碼截圖的功能不能截圖了"},{"start":6021.837,"end":6028.863,"text":"第二個就是說QR Code這個付款碼如果顯示出來要給商店去付款收款的時候上面會有跑馬燈就預防詐騙那如果被翻拍之後不肖司徒拿到的那個就沒有跑馬燈那銀行就要跟商店講沒有跑馬燈的你不可以收款那這個已經請參加機構再辦理了所以財經公司有配合這個政府的一個預防詐騙的一個做法已經在做了好"},{"start":6049.921,"end":6053.746,"text":"另外一個問題就是說因為財經公司他單日上午的相關平台的交易金額都超過6000億我們大概有看到未來承接更多公共福利跟民眾個資之後央行跟金管會對於財經公司的資安審查是否有更高規格的監督機制來確保數位安全的轉型"},{"start":6069.468,"end":6089.445,"text":"目前那個財經在做資安的安全是符合國際標準的去在做的那相關的一個資訊的檢查金管會都會定期去做檢查那這部分如果說他有一些資安的問題也會通報央行那我們也不去了解那目前來看他都是符合國際標準的所以這個案子主要是因為消費者"},{"start":6090.606,"end":6098.63,"text":"其實QR Code本身是沒有問題的啦是因為消費者的這種被人家截圖被人家翻拍這種功能所以現在就是把這種手機的截圖跟翻拍功能給它這個強化以上說明那本席其實還簡單的再問一下一個問題因為大學生都封了股市借貸的拼當沖啦這次看到說如何健全青年的信用體系跟財商教育這部分就是因為教育"},{"start":6119.506,"end":6129.05,"text":"總裁你本身過去在念的是大學是念財經的部分那想說怎麼樣財商的觀念跟風險意識能不能給年輕人一些的建議簡單說一下我想是這樣就投資人來講像我來講的話我們要穩健不要過度槓桿"},{"start":6141.529,"end":6167.446,"text":"基本上也許我是比較傳統我有多少錢我才會投資多少現在是因為信用的問題有一些年輕人喜歡用槓桿因為這一波他喜歡用槓桿槓桿的時候上去的話他的獲利會加大是沒有錯但是如果說在某一天因為這某一天我們不曉得如果他還轉下來的時候他可能會受傷"},{"start":6171.469,"end":6195.025,"text":"所以投資人要自己要有那個風險的意識要有風險的意識那事實上呢在金融的這個資本市場的一個教育裡面啊我覺得那個什麼金管會他做得很好啊他都也有做一些的那個教育所以基本上就只有這樣子好就這樣謝謝央行總裁給了我們年輕人這樣子非常寶貴的經驗好謝謝主席謝謝我們接下來請賴世寶委員"},{"start":6215.474,"end":6220.435,"text":"謝謝主席以及各位先進有請央行的這個央總裁請總裁"},{"start":6227.814,"end":6245.04,"text":"賴委員早總裁好其實我們都會喜歡你來的謝謝啦謝謝你都想像太多了我也很喜歡來這裡看看那個來跟賴委員請安多看看啦 培養感情啦來請安你都沒來 感情比較爽"},{"start":6249.219,"end":6273.452,"text":"大家因為你很重要管錢的 你這個 你看你聽到我咨詢你的時候你說這個第七波的信用管制stop here喔 這樣第二天就這樣 銀件股的起價是不是stop here 是確定沒有了嗎我問你是不是確定沒有了"},{"start":6274.896,"end":6288.48,"text":"確定沒有了 不會再對房地產動刀我們滾動是檢討我們滾動是檢討等一下這一題要問你喔我就請問你啦來這裡跟你談的就是一個啦Money Talk 講錢啦"},{"start":6301.629,"end":6329.75,"text":"現在請問你股市你覺得有沒有過熱股市有無過熱成家量最近已稍減股市我想我要先說的我個人的判斷因為股市我不是股市的專家所以我個人的意見但是我個人是認為就是說我們的股市也有它的基本面"},{"start":6330.885,"end":6332.087,"text":"當然你的股市的基本面是集中在電子資通信在那邊沒有錯"},{"start":6346.448,"end":6348.549,"text":"因為我們的股市一方面也受到美國股市的影響特別是匯程半導體是不是我可以用白話文說楊總裁說股市最近沒有過日非常正常這樣可以嗎"},{"start":6367.117,"end":6369.46,"text":"我不敢做這樣的一個結論因為我為什麼說我不敢因為就是說我剛剛已經也講了就是說我不是股市專家"},{"start":6381.613,"end":6385.817,"text":"我只能說我們希望我們的投資人不要過度的槓桿不要過度的槓桿去投資 當有一天因為現在他上去的時候"},{"start":6406.135,"end":6427.262,"text":"我們現在有四代同堂甚至於六代同堂我們講四代房貸 信貸 融資 股票直接事實上四代同堂這個楊總裁你剛才的說法我們希望槓桿越低越好所以基本上你不樂見四代同堂"},{"start":6430.864,"end":6448.29,"text":"這個錢帶出來之後去投入股市世代同堂會讓人家confuse會讓人家混淆以為就是說我一個人他可以做這樣的同樣的一個同堂他的意思是同堂所以同堂的意思很容易讓人家不解應該我們應該就說"},{"start":6455.213,"end":6470.904,"text":"這個投資人他用房貸去然後去借錢這個投資人另外一個投資人他用信貸這個投資人他用融資他個別啦那你如果說把它說世貸這個兩個都是都是綁在一起我覺得這個機率不高"},{"start":6477.256,"end":6482.262,"text":"可是人家統計的 人家統計的說 不能營養辦理個人理財周轉金的11個月所以你個人理財周轉金只有講融資的這個部分啊"},{"start":6492.893,"end":6503.796,"text":"只是講融資的他沒有就是說這個個人理財是包括所有的這些沒有所以我就總覺得有啦有啦有啦有啦你這樣子跟社會這個主流的講法沒有一個人他可以用融資他可以借貸合併起來他就很厲害了五月份"},{"start":6521.602,"end":6523.567,"text":"跟去年比較房貸增加4830萬"},{"start":6526.781,"end":6550.98,"text":"車貸增加一百七十五萬融資貸款增加六千四百億這就不是億了對啦如果說你的數據 車貸增加四千八百多億車貸增加一百多億融資增加六千多億這個大部分都是跑去股市這是一般人要分析的就跟你這樣講"},{"start":6551.801,"end":6575.756,"text":"所以你說世代同堂世代同堂是存在的不是不存在不是啊我的意思就是說有啦房貸這個是存在的啦信貸呢這是存在的啦存在啊那個融資存在的啊股票直接這是存在的但是呢它所謂的世代同堂會讓人家肯定就是說一個人他可以同時做這樣的一個信用啦信用組合啦那我總覺得這個有些有不是沒有啦有些有啦蛤"},{"start":6581.019,"end":6595.882,"text":"有啦 如果說有我想那個不多啦如果有啦 我沒有這個數據啦但是我可以推論因為銀行不可能讓你這樣子除非他是非常有錢他有連徵的資料他有連徵的資料"},{"start":6606.104,"end":6618.368,"text":"廉政一查就可以知道就是說他在哪裡借錢所以簡單來講就是你非常看世代同堂這四個字很不爽就對了啦不是我不是說他不爽而是說我說他都有可能會有一點誇張我在理監事會的時候呢我也這樣講我就說他是有一點誇張啊那你這個把我們旁邊的記者都罵到了喔"},{"start":6631.972,"end":6644.699,"text":"那你如果說他有房貸那這個沒問題他有信貸沒有問題他有融資有問題你看你剛講的話我毛幾個記者你再剝頭髮就剝了頭髮表示不認同來我報告委員我說我在這邊講第一個我不是股市參加股市最近有回檔了是不是顯著再說了"},{"start":6659.747,"end":6688.006,"text":"那麼外資VS大媽小白髮人呢外資最近賣超了八千多億他錢有沒有匯出去啊所以我在我跟那個委員報告就是說就投資來講的話我如果說我就說人家有說停損跟停利停損就是說一直下來的時候呢因為他要那個什麼他的損失不能再一直下去"},{"start":6688.826,"end":6710.563,"text":"那他停歷呢就是說你上來的時候呢你不能就說一直就上去一直來來來媽我現在問你一面回答我所以呢也就是說我認為我認為呢他是在停歷他在停歷停歷也就他獲利了結好那我就問你最近外資匯出去匯出國外的匯出台灣的有多少錢嗎"},{"start":6711.803,"end":6724.532,"text":"他會出 我跟委員報告就現在那個 因為他每天都在變動不過我很明確的跟委員報告我們最近才發佈我們第一季的干預的數據"},{"start":6733.098,"end":6744.771,"text":"干預的數據我們就調節在市場賣匯這個賣匯大部分都是跟外資有關係那我跟你報告一下我們第一季我們關賣匯就125億美元"},{"start":6748.616,"end":6755.002,"text":"120億美金 折算台幣大概4000億左右4000多億啊就是說匯出去了這個4000億大部分都是它匯出的啦那現在等於說Net它有匯進匯出嘛Net就是4000億"},{"start":6768.647,"end":6785.905,"text":"我就說是第一劑啦 第一劑啦那第二劑以後的話呢 它也還是會再出去的啦所以你現在看到的是會出去的毒對啦 會出去的 這個就是我在講啊就是說它是停利嘛 它就是停利嘛"},{"start":6788.047,"end":6790.368,"text":"我們來看現在通膨已經2.6了喔你來這裡講了好幾次喔2%是你能夠忍受的現在2.6了你怎麼辦但是呢我的報告也有講得很清楚喔"},{"start":6804.736,"end":6822.64,"text":"我們事實上這月份的2.6我們上次的那個我們的報告裡面我們也講得很清楚我們在上季的時候我們就說我們是估測我們第二季包括這個2.6我們就包括進去我們那時候還沒有就6月的時候我們是估計我們的第二季是2.10"},{"start":6833.522,"end":6859.118,"text":"我們是2.10 就第二季 第二季就四五六平均啦那時候我們也有考慮到六月份會比較高所以呢我們那個時候四五六這個平均起來我們是2.10但是呢 今年的 今年的 這一次呢第二季呢是多少 實際的呢 2.17所以我們只有低估了0.07而已"},{"start":6861.239,"end":6867.726,"text":"所以這個就是說是在我們後來我們就說假設說這個呢把它放進去了以後包括在我們六月份的那個我們把第三劑跟第四劑呢我們說好那維持我們在六月份的一個估計那這樣的話呢我們現在呢是1.93"},{"start":6886.442,"end":6893.748,"text":"GDP成長多少我們GDP是9.459.45組織總數估了可能會超過10%他沒有他是9.64他9.64不過我跟委員報告就是說像這種估計一定會再revise"},{"start":6906.92,"end":6908.281,"text":"謝謝啦 謝謝啦我還是喜歡來這裡跟委員請安"},{"start":6928.979,"end":6956.549,"text":"第一個你要多來 而且要shoot forward直接簡單有利 簡單出報才對都要這樣說一句話我覺得有一個很重要的心清安下加一個年紀排戶所以你原來的信用管制第七波所以沒有了 可是你透過心清安還是等於信用管制的2.0加起來"},{"start":6957.609,"end":6981.492,"text":"所以你有在信任官司不是沒有喔謝謝你同意不同意嗎我沒有comment你上一次講信任官司那個是財政部是主政單位所以你都同意"},{"start":6982.413,"end":7010.154,"text":"他這個等於是另外一種的另類的信任管制啦怎麼沒有所以你留一手啦這個最後一句話啦齁我感謝主席派你來因為好久沒有看到你啊大家MISS YOU啊 跟你講阿來喔阿別人這樣 阿流水就捨幾步那個答案就趕快給我們啦大家捨幾步擔保好 謝謝我們結束賴世寶委員的質詢接下來請李昆成委員"},{"start":7019.09,"end":7024.361,"text":"好 謝謝主席我先讓這個總裁先喝口水啦好 那有請楊總裁"},{"start":7034.978,"end":7040.423,"text":"總裁早立法院剛剛三讀通過虛擬資產服務法虛擬資產服務法裡面跟央行有關係的應該就是穩定幣央行也負責穩定幣的發行管理"},{"start":7052.277,"end":7066.912,"text":"這個扮演了這個金融穩定的把關者那我想請問一下這個總裁啦那目前這一個金管會有跟你們央行有共同制定有關於這個穩定並發行許可管理辦法這些的細則這些執法嗎我們也會參與"},{"start":7073.017,"end":7100.953,"text":"他們有沒有來找你會啊會啊現在因為這個法剛通過嘛所以執法到目前為止據我了解好像還沒有開始的樣子現在還沒開始喔可是淨管會主委說半年之內會完成目前執法在嚴定中了對啦那我例如說那何時這個跟你們這個穩定幣有相關的這個執法是穩定幣發行許可管理辦法嗎還有什麼其他的執法嗎"},{"start":7101.69,"end":7121.404,"text":"有它有一些資安的部分也有要求還有就是因為它其實是兩部一個是初級的發行還有次級的交易那初級發行就當支付型的穩定幣這個部分是一個法規次級的交易就像一個次級市場好像是規比較像服務商的VASP"},{"start":7122.225,"end":7150.456,"text":"好就是針對不同的對象譬如說穩定幣的發行者是一個規範還有穩定幣的服務商VASP又是一個規範所以這個部分可能就是要分不同的業務功能去做一個管理好那預計執法何時會完成目前已經在嚴定中晚不完成這個我想應該是今晚會說了算他說半年他說半年的時間那就半年那就半年那再問一下那穩定幣目前是由這個金融機構發行對不對"},{"start":7152.481,"end":7158.183,"text":"目前穩定幣未來是由金融機構發行嗎應該是啦 應該是銀行有預估就是說最快這些銀行這些金融機構最快可以核實發行這個穩定幣"},{"start":7177.847,"end":7195.144,"text":"看看他的那個啦看看他哪些比較有興趣的明年明年上半年這個我不敢這個可能問那個誰啊可能問金管會會比較能夠問另外一個金融就對了要問金管會比較明確"},{"start":7198.348,"end":7213.145,"text":"那這個穩定幣是現在未來發行具有支付的功能那你如果沒有監管的話會危及總體的金融的穩定跟法幣的地位那請教一下央行如何去控管這些風險"},{"start":7214.591,"end":7232.017,"text":"我想就是說第一個我們要看兩個部分第一個部分就是說是新台幣的穩定幣另外一個就是說外幣的穩定幣那如果說是新台幣的穩定幣我覺得我們要監管它比較容易"},{"start":7233.058,"end":7248.758,"text":"因為畢竟就是說是因為我們自己的國內的機構發行的所以他發行的一個辦法會很明確的他必須要follow他的一個規則他的規定所以我認為新台幣的穩定幣要監管比較容易"},{"start":7249.278,"end":7275.307,"text":"但是在外匯的這個部分美元的穩定幣第一個美元的穩定幣有誰願意去發行美元的穩定幣我覺得我們台灣可能因為你發行美元的穩定幣的時候除了你台灣的主管機關包括那個金管會還有他要我們來參與同意那這個除了這個主管機關以外他還要"},{"start":7276.087,"end":7292.717,"text":"符合美國的那個什麼穩定幣的這個規則所以這個不大容易美元但是呢在那個服務商外幣的外幣就是說美元主要我相信是大概是為美元美元穩定幣的服務商他那個平台要做兌換兌換的時候呢那這個呢我們中央銀行一定會我就是說這部分嘛"},{"start":7304.703,"end":7325.692,"text":"這個我們一定會密切注意他而且我們也認為就是說如果說他的做法跟我們現在的外匯指定銀行所做的兌換或是出去進來的這些我們大概會用同樣的管理的辦法來管理他"},{"start":7326.292,"end":7330.536,"text":"有辦法嗎應該是可以因為那個穩定幣它具有跨境點對點的這個即時傳輸然後24小時不間斷的交易這些去中心化的特性這跟你過去你透過外匯銀行跟SWIFT的系統建立的外匯申報的系統"},{"start":7347.113,"end":7371.29,"text":"這個進度就兩個這個時間會差很多你有辦法說用你傳統去管外匯的方式去管這些Facebook他們做這個美元穩定幣我認為就是說他在兌換他要出去出去的速度怎麼樣那我總覺得比較不會有所因最主要就是說你要進去你要進來對不對你要買賣"},{"start":7374.632,"end":7384.118,"text":"那你一定比傳統外賣還快啊至於就是說它速度的快慢我認為那是其次那你重點在哪裡重點還是在於就是說你的買賣你的進來你的出去就是這樣子可是會用跟你傳統去做這個外賣管制的方法是一樣嗎大概差不多"},{"start":7393.263,"end":7408.85,"text":"大概差不多喔?大概差不多不過委員我也不能說在這裡非常百分之百啦來跟你講說差不多啦不過我們現在目前所想像的也許委員是對的啦"},{"start":7409.93,"end":7425.773,"text":"就是說這個可能跟傳統的不大一樣一定不一樣的但是沒關係因為你如果說這個平台成立了以後我們會去真正的去了解它那這個的話我相信中央議長現在應該就要去了解了吧現在應該就要去了解了吧也可以啊"},{"start":7427.679,"end":7453.268,"text":"但是呢但是呢我跟委員報告他的這個外匯的傳輸一定比這個傳統的還要快我跟委員報告事實上呢我們我們也有一個理事啊他他就說他們銀行他們try他們try這個就是說這個外匯的一個的那個速度啦還有他們買賣的那個方便於我他說跟傳統的呢也不一定是比傳統的好"},{"start":7454.608,"end":7457.271,"text":"他給我們的這個他說他有實際的去try去嘗試他說沒有 不見得我是提醒就是說這個對於你這個"},{"start":7465.407,"end":7481.418,"text":"之前外匯管制的系統跟現在有穩定幣傳輸的速度很快24小時跟你現在管理的方式可能會不太一樣針對外匯的這方面那現在央行的數位貨幣進度如何?我講批發型的就好了"},{"start":7491.892,"end":7501.263,"text":"我們就分兩部分一個是Retail CPTC 後市有CPTC那Retail CPTC之前都有報告過因為沒有急迫性所以我們就是把我們原來我想說P发型的這個數位貨幣跟這個紋定幣之間的關係"},{"start":7508.134,"end":7533.53,"text":"目前是這樣,那個Hosel CPTC他的準備金如果代幣的話是可以做一個清算資產所以未來假設不同體系的穩定幣假設他們要做一個互通性,跨體系的處理移轉的時候或許可以用到Hosel CPTC這樣一個清算的工具那目前這個部分我們可能是先做存款代幣這部分的試驗那未來如果說有跨體系的穩定幣的需要可以再來考慮看看"},{"start":7534.611,"end":7543.261,"text":"如果說現在要發行這個Vespa發行穩定幣的話那我們我們樣行是不是要有這一個P發行的這一個數位貨幣作為一個最終的清算的一個基礎"},{"start":7545.029,"end":7564.685,"text":"第一個目前我來看應該是還沒有這樣的需求因為目前國內如果要發美元穩定幣的話應該不太是自己發應該是用國際的美元穩定幣那國際美元穩定幣不管是USTC或STC來看它都製成一個體系在做所以目前他們沒有跨體系的打算未來可能還要再看目前是沒有"},{"start":7565.245,"end":7591.74,"text":"那第二個我們國內在發展的部分的話是因為我們目前已經有做到部分的準備已經會做代幣化那今年如果可以落地的話可能先支援銀行間的黃金代幣這樣的移轉所以今年底應該可以做出一個實驗的一個試做的計畫就是支援所謂的銀行間的黃金代幣那目前至於穩定幣我覺得應該是目前還沒有這樣的需求"},{"start":7593.291,"end":7607.937,"text":"那我最後再請教這一個總裁這個剛剛我看也蠻多委員在關心雖然說這個第七波信用管制已經是結束了嘛那可是現在就是說我們現在鼓勵生小孩"},{"start":7608.697,"end":7632.388,"text":"我們希望說生產小孩本來是兩人家庭現在小孩有三個四個那更好那可是你的小孩增加你就要換屋嘛那你現在換屋我們對換屋的這些年輕的爸爸媽媽來講我覺得還不夠體貼啦就是說你現在這個他們一定是也沒這麼多錢一定是把你第一間房子賣掉之後再買第二間那可是會有過渡期啊"},{"start":7633.248,"end":7653.468,"text":"那這個過渡期你們現在就是說他要一年半的時間就把它賣掉而且貸款的成數只有六成這個會不會對於我們現在政府要推的這些國家與你一起養這些育兒政策你們的政策要稍微做一些調整對於這些年輕的爸爸媽媽他們要換房有更體貼的做法"},{"start":7654.457,"end":7671.237,"text":"事實上我跟委員報告就是說換屋的這個好像聽起來就是說都是中央銀行給他們很不方便那事實上我們也剛看那個網路他說銀行都在這個部分他們都不做"},{"start":7672.178,"end":7694.645,"text":"事實上也不是 因為銀行都是聽中央銀行的啊對 所以呢 中央銀行所以呢 麥天熙您只要說您的態度怎麼樣 我相信這個銀行馬上就會做調整對對 所以我就說 剛剛你說選擇信息管制是不是到此為止事實上呢 我還是 我們的回答還是 我們還是滾動式檢討"},{"start":7697.066,"end":7710.396,"text":"我們還是滾動式檢討那我剛才所提到說你要換屋的不管你的層數或是你的年限還在你的管制當中嗎我想就是說我們會滾動式檢討怎麼來做適當的處理有沒有調整放寬的可能性嗎"},{"start":7722.184,"end":7740.951,"text":"我想未來應該是有啊因為未來應該有啊現在呢這個下個月是未來啊三個月是未來啊對啦 對啦但是我沒辦法我沒辦法來跟委員說就是下個月就是啊對 我知道但是好 那我問的大方向是不是有可能來做放寬的調整"},{"start":7741.671,"end":7760.778,"text":"未來就可以啊未來就可以應該未來可以啊未來只是說那個timing我們就說滾動所以我說那個timing是9月還是12月還是明年對我們這些年輕的爸爸媽媽來講這差別就很大你越快去做調整對他們來講負擔經濟的負擔心理負擔會更少好不好我們盡快來做調整好不好我們會滾動式檢討你沒有被我引誘出來就說好我們盡快來做調整"},{"start":7771.741,"end":7793.793,"text":"可以嗎 盡快的做調整我們會啦 我想我們會在未來會做對啦 因為這個國家一起講這個政策這個不分黨派都支持那我想不分黨派能夠稍微放鬆一點讓他們換屋的時候心理經濟壓力不會那麼大好不好好 謝謝謝謝李坤城委員接著我們請彥秀委員"},{"start":7802.5,"end":7806.895,"text":"謝謝主席 我可不可以請總裁總裁喝口水 辛苦了慢慢來沒關係"},{"start":7816.512,"end":7831.34,"text":"6月18號我們央行的理監事會最後決定整個6月調整維持不變但是我要跟總裁討論一下就是說最近我也看到報導就是說我們最近的CPI連續已經高於2"},{"start":7832.521,"end":7848.58,"text":"雖然整體大環境我覺得整體物價控制得不錯油價看起來好像最近都已經回檔但是我們都知道很多物品有它的僵固性一漲之後就已經回不來了包括我們房租、外食我最近很多國外的朋友回來就說"},{"start":7850.062,"end":7862.044,"text":"現在在外面吃東西感受上比過去價格高了很多所以我要跟總裁討論說我們的政策工具你覺得到底足不足夠"},{"start":7863.834,"end":7874.018,"text":"你手邊的政策工具到底足不足夠?我想政策工具是足夠的因為剛剛我也講了如果說通膨的主要來源是因為供給面"},{"start":7885.763,"end":7896.032,"text":"那如果說是供給面包括是油價啦還有那個進口的物價所以不用去管現在物價的物價外食族房租的漲幅越來越高你覺得不用管就讓他自由去發展我們"},{"start":7902.532,"end":7916.89,"text":"當然它也會漲因為跟著國際情勢的變化油價的浮動前一陣子漲上去那現在好像油價回落了但是很多東西一漲上去就回不來了你很清楚一般是這樣的但是也就是說"},{"start":7918.174,"end":7935.435,"text":"我們在project明年的時候呢也會都會考慮這一點啦所以你總裁你的意思也告訴我說未來你們會考量那你們也會有政策跟工具把這個也納入考量去做調整是是是是那當然那當然好謝謝總裁你的回應喔"},{"start":7936.536,"end":7959.613,"text":"就是說我覺得整體無論是我們打房就是說央行對於整體國家的貨幣政策也好或者是整體信用或流動性的貨幣我們是一個最終管制的機關所以你的工具政策非常重要剛才我聽到你回應其他幾個委員就是說房市過熱我可以有信用管制來打房"},{"start":7961.334,"end":7977.799,"text":"那股市過任反而是我剛剛聽到說不會啦金管會可以管啦他有很多教育宣導讓大家不要一直全部都投下去但是我要提醒總裁其實相對的央行是整體信用跟流動性的最終管制機關"},{"start":7978.979,"end":7993.239,"text":"其實我們政策工具還是有的為什麼我這麼說就是說我們在6月3號我們央行標售了364天的定存單標售1400億那在今年6月3號其實非常奇怪我們還有剩餘103億元反而流標"},{"start":7996.523,"end":8021.197,"text":"這個是過去比較沒常看到的那特別是6月25號我們的新聞稿當中我也看到我們在第7月8月9月這一次的一年的364天定期存單我們反而減發到1200億元這個是您對外說明的這是短期的計數因素這是不是也代表著我們央行在貨幣政策偏向緊縮"},{"start":8024.98,"end":8042.451,"text":"我們是偏向緊縮,但是我們也要因應市場上所以你不放那麼多錢到市場上去,也管制嘛所以我剛說其實你是有政策工具,你還是有嘛那我想請教總裁,你今年第四季是不是也會持續的?"},{"start":8045.854,"end":8056.366,"text":"貨幣政策警說 朝這方向去走我們過來是第三季啦 九月份啦那接下來第四季呢第四季也一樣的 就是說我們是一季一季檢討嘛三個月的觀察期我知道 那接下來是不是都是這樣"},{"start":8062.834,"end":8078.15,"text":"對所以呢還是看股市的狀況你會再做調整對我們會密切的注意他要做怎麼樣的一個調整所以你不要說你沒有政策工具其實你是有政策工具的有有有好謝謝總裁那剛才"},{"start":8080.772,"end":8092.799,"text":"剛才賴秀文說你都順順的其實你有你的性格跟風格包括那個之前我們說彭總才有他的風格在其實你是有的我把你評為說你是Mr."},{"start":8092.799,"end":8096.741,"text":"Surprise其實你是有你個人風格的"},{"start":8098.262,"end":8117.595,"text":"當然新的美國聯準會主席他也非常有風格Kevin Walsh他也非常有風格包括他在取消前瞻性的指引這件事情這個對全球未來市場的估計跟變化就會非常的大總裁你同意我的說法嗎他取消前瞻性你怎麼看待這件事情"},{"start":8118.929,"end":8145.276,"text":"我想就是說一個工具的使用它有它的背景我就說像說 現在你簡短回答因為我其實我有很多問題想要請問我的意思是說在本能基它用這個點陣圖的時候是有它的背景但是到目前的時候呢我好許說現在可能可以不必要這些點陣圖了"},{"start":8146.716,"end":8149.818,"text":"但是他的這個綠綠的點陣圖預測對我們來說就有影響啊對對對但是呢問題在這裡就是說因為到目前為止呢因為你的點陣圖會讓人家覺得那個Faith他的一個態度就是這樣子而且會"},{"start":8167.452,"end":8176.781,"text":"所以你是支持他基本上我是支持的你是支持好那你支持這個就尊重因為這是他的決定嘛美國聯準會的決定但是相對的就是說"},{"start":8180.725,"end":8197.601,"text":"WASH它主導的這個芒飛的時代我們過去我們央行都是以平滑匯率的管理方法論來去做我們匯率調整因為我們跟美國的匯率對台灣的進出口影響其實都非常的大所以面對這樣子的WASH的新的政策"},{"start":8198.382,"end":8204.307,"text":"的方式我們央行在大政策下會做什麼樣的調整我跟委員報告事實上FED的點陣圖往往會跟市場的預期有些時候會不一樣"},{"start":8214.935,"end":8233.701,"text":"那如果說是在這種情況之下呢你是指往往還是大多數還是通常都不一樣我說最近你是指最近因為最近市場最近因為不只是就是說過最近這一兩年來其實是國際情勢的變化那但是大方向上它"},{"start":8234.301,"end":8243.746,"text":"如果沒有最近美伊的戰爭油價的變化其實它是一個很重要的指標我同意委員的意思所以分兩塊來講國際的特殊狀況我們應該有個因應的"},{"start":8256.112,"end":8270.899,"text":"因應的方式但是依照過去我們央行對匯率政策的調整美國的聯準會的方向確實是對我們一個很重要的猜測我這個我同意我非常同意事實上委員您的分析是正確的只要說現在變成一個非常uncertainty的情況之下而且它的經濟情況已經到達"},{"start":8283.305,"end":8304.526,"text":"所以你聯準會的因應的我們央行的因應是什麼這是我第一個問題我直接把我的問題都問完這是我第一個問題面對WashTown這樣子芒飛時代的這個他拿掉前瞻點我們的新的因應政策是什麼無論是對於國際快速的變化或過去一般的變化我們的調整這是我第一個問題我有兩個問題"},{"start":8306.367,"end":8325.044,"text":"那第二個問題就是說像這兩天美伊的戰爭那個停火協議又馬上又拿掉了所以匯率高高低低假設兩岸的局勢的變化國際情勢的變化我們有沒有一個外匯流動的一個警戒值的"},{"start":8328.007,"end":8342.38,"text":"我們的壓力到底在哪裡我們警戒值的警戒值到底在哪裡我們有沒有這樣的一個警戒值 央行的介入我非常想知道另外對於上半年你看一下子匯率"},{"start":8345.063,"end":8355.581,"text":"變化那麼大那當然最近看起來又回到32但是對於我們的出口商每個月要付錢又要訂單那個真的是每天都是膽戰心驚所以32塊對他是有利啊就是說"},{"start":8359.737,"end":8371.027,"text":"妳可以回答我說現在已經回到平穩但是對於出口商 供給機器業來說每個月訂單原料它其實都是膽戰心驚因為我這一批訂單的時候我能不能賺錢我都不知道過去可以賺錢同樣的數目是可以賺錢的訂單一樣多的數量可能但是這個月卻不一定可以賺錢所以面對匯率的國際情勢的大變化不可控的因素"},{"start":8385.619,"end":8403.757,"text":"我們怎麼樣我們有沒有一個協助有沒有一個什麼樣協助或幫忙這些匯率變化包括我們的工具機我們的最重要的全產業最近有一句話除了AI之外其他所有產業都是BI所以總裁這幾個問題你可不可以具體回應第三個問題我先回答你就說像這種匯率"},{"start":8409.002,"end":8426.199,"text":"包括我們有沒有機會像我們在疫情期間我們有一個定向融通的專案貸款機制啦這些我覺得是可以幫忙的所以我剛才講除了AI之外現在其他產業都是BI所以我覺得這個是可以思考的"},{"start":8427.52,"end":8438.565,"text":"我說啦就是說匯率穩定對我們出口商是非常有利的啦那基本上你要看看新台幣匯率他是跟其他主要貨幣來講我們這個報告都有講啊我們都比韓元日元那個美元還有那個總裁我還是希望你直接回應我啊對啊對啊所以傳產機械工具業這些匯率就穩定啊單一利率"},{"start":8450.129,"end":8465.26,"text":"其實K型經濟家單一利率第二個利率的話呢你看看我們在第二季沒有提高利率第一個我們也是考慮到就傳統產業對不對所以我們就說偏緊偏緊但是呢"},{"start":8465.72,"end":8468.483,"text":"妳沒有提高但是整體市場的變化其實對它整體國際市場的變化對於這些傳產業機械工具其實已經是受傷妳有沒有去思考過所以我才剛才提到說我覺得無論剛剛幾位委員提到的無論是房市的問題城鄉的差距各縣市的變化"},{"start":8484.983,"end":8503.913,"text":"我覺得總裁都應該多去走動了解真正市場上的需求我們傳產業也是過去我們台灣靠這些傳產中小企業撐起來但是如果在這一波我們沒有對中小企業的貸款專案我們也沒有一個定向融通的機制或專案的機制我覺得"},{"start":8505.314,"end":8518.642,"text":"台灣看起來我們的晶片產業很好什麼經濟成長到9%其實很多產業其實都苦苦愛好所以我才會提出我們疫情期間事實上我們有定向融通有一個特別的綠綠來幫助這些傳產業我覺得應該去做這樣的思考"},{"start":8525.685,"end":8529.99,"text":"謝謝委員的建議不過我也跟委員報告事實上經濟部據我了解他對中小微企業融資的問題他們也都有在協助"},{"start":8541.503,"end":8566.061,"text":"包括你看主義總書才最近不是也推出了一個八年一千億有沒有中小企業的那個好謝謝總裁其實我覺得面對局勢我最後一句話面對整體局勢的變化還有新的美國人總會主席上任我覺得我們未來應該建立一套新的精準貨幣政策工具我覺得應該去思考朝這樣子的方向去做調整會好謝謝總裁謝謝"},{"start":8570.223,"end":8571.964,"text":"接下來請陳玉珍委員楊總裁辛苦了"},{"start":8599.441,"end":8616.488,"text":"很早辛苦您了央行總裁實在是一個非常重要又非常當然對你來講可能家境就熟但我看起來他是一個很艱鉅的任務2024年金融海嘯9月19號那時候那時候整個房市的從大多頭就急轉直下急動變成這個"},{"start":8625.252,"end":8648.921,"text":"這個就變成這個急轉直下那我記得我記得當時也詢問過這個總裁這個您的看法是怎樣您的希望那時候您是希望說這個產業是穩定性的發展嗎不要這個突然這樣衝著你來這個對整體的社會公平正義各方面技術正義各方面來講也不是一個好的方向然後你是希望說他可以做軟著陸"},{"start":8650.382,"end":8663.088,"text":"那我看今年六月您的央行禮監事會沒有再有什麼特別性的政策那之前有一點點那你看以目前的國內這個方式來講你看現在有沒有達到您說的這個軟著陸的這個方向然後這個您的看法"},{"start":8673.973,"end":8699.711,"text":"所以我們在這一次維持選擇性管制就是說維持不變其中有一個理由就是說我們2020年到現在目前為止在所有的主要的國家裡面我們的房地產的房價的高漲雖然我們有下來但是太慢了"},{"start":8700.071,"end":8721.666,"text":"太慢就對跟世界其他國家來比較其他國家還有那個什麼他城市來比較的時候我們房價高他都是非常高你說的是兩件事第一個是你說的是我們房價相對其他的各個城市高還是說你覺得他的下降幅度慢對 即使我們下降的幅度是這樣子那麼我們的房價還是最高的OK"},{"start":8728.431,"end":8739.004,"text":"所以你覺得我們的房價的確是有下降嗎你覺得在你從2024年到現在以來是有一點點啦有一點點下降事實上應該是說整個建商的他的這個獲利空間整體的下降因為"},{"start":8748.214,"end":8758.623,"text":"這個物料原料一直漲嘛土地也沒有說跌什麼那它的加工成本增加但是它整個獲利空間變少嘛所以整個這個這個中華民國產業來講建築產業應該是說這個產業建設相關這個產業現在獲利相對是變得比較低的那房價有達到您要預期的效果嗎"},{"start":8771.504,"end":8782.568,"text":"我總覺得我才會講就是說我們的新聞稿裡面講到就是說他的soft landing有一點慢你說什麼有點慢他的下來的速度有點慢相較我們2020年這樣的漲幅"},{"start":8790.05,"end":8813.021,"text":"它下來就是只有一點你說它長得很快但跌得很慢意思是這樣子看起來意思是這樣子那這樣子這中間遇到幾個問題第一個就是有一些政策面上我說說你這個工作很艱鉅第一方面不希望房價漲得太厲害讓老百姓負擔不起這個房子居住爭議包括我們有一些委員提到事實上也說有些人要放屋什麼各方面一部份不希望它漲太高那如果壓抑得太厲害的話會不會影響到這個產業的發展呢您看"},{"start":8819.782,"end":8847.297,"text":"我想以目前來講的話呢它我們的房地產產業我覺得它還是穩健的OK穩健的所以還是可以健康的發展因為你也不能讓一個產業不能健康的發展嘛那現在又遇到另外一個議題啦那現在你看喔在整體來講近半年來喔這個國內的這個股市喔非常的蒸蒸日上啊幾乎快要每日創新高啦所以但是全國的其他產業"},{"start":8848.677,"end":8870.693,"text":"事實上我們研究員說的都是BI除了AI產業 半導體 科技也真的是非常的好所以現在整個市場的資金感覺上全部都是流入這個股市造成了包括因為股票實在是漲得很厲害所以包括了我們也看到很多老百姓也看到紛紛做成幾代同行你不用看這個"},{"start":8872.794,"end":8892.884,"text":"造成幾代同堂各種房貸啊 車貸啊各個類型的貸款都all in進入這個股票市場那這個是會造成一個風險的我記得早年大概1980年代那個時候早年台灣也曾經經歷過股市的那個狂奔然後下來造成一個很大的一個金融性的這個整個結構性的風險"},{"start":8894.025,"end":8899.59,"text":"你現在的方向呢整個趨勢呢不過剛剛我也在講就是說世代同堂這個字眼會讓人家誤解就是說一個投資人他可以同時做這樣的一個槓桿"},{"start":8910.24,"end":8917.863,"text":"我是覺得他是你市場上沒有這樣的事情嗎應該是不會吧不會嗎房貸車貸會啦我的意思就是說房貸會有房貸我房貸就是房貸啦那個信用貸款是信用貸款那個就是說是理財融資啦這個是分開的不是同堂"},{"start":8933.829,"end":8940.48,"text":"分開的意思他這個意思可能是說同一個人同一個人他做這樣的操作因為股票實在是漲太厲害對啦他會讓人家覺得一個人可以做同時可以做這樣的一個新的那個貸款那這個Leverage那就會很大了"},{"start":8949.053,"end":8969.458,"text":"是是是我是覺得就是說所以我在那個理監事會的時候我才會覺得就是說這個字眼很容易讓人家混淆以為就是說一個人他可以同時做了這四樣的槓桿那這個還得了如果說每一個人都可以這樣子做的話那還得了那媒體會這樣報導應該也是有相當的考據吧因為這個世代同堂"},{"start":8976.98,"end":9002.786,"text":"這個聽起來是很聽起來每個人我們看到很多可能都因為股票太旺所以大家都希望把所有的身家都all in進去那這個也是有一個風險現在比如說像外資這樣一直賣接著就影響到匯率整個匯率影響到後面就是進出口產業所以您怎麼看這個情形呢我說匯率是現在我所講的股市跟匯率"},{"start":9005.007,"end":9020.2,"text":"這個問題是在於就外資我們只是說外資啦跟這個我們投資人去投資對我現在講的是另外一題我知道那你就說如果說是就匯率的這個問題的話那主要的就是說最近會貶是因為"},{"start":9021.461,"end":9028.783,"text":"那個外資呢他獲利了結金額相當龐大所以我們央行現在還是要扮演一定的這個角色我們要穩定匯率讓這個進出口這個地方能維持一定的這個平衡所以這個在匯率方面還是會維持穩健的做法那在房地產的這方面對於房地產的話大概就是金融機構我們的房地產現在就是說滾動式檢討我們的政策就是這樣子"},{"start":9050.449,"end":9067.445,"text":"因為我想說這個可能對於這個也會開始擔心市場上也開始有擔心說如果說就是現在很多人在股市因為實在是漲得很多那可能不知道會不會還在巨漲這我們也不了解但是就是說這樣的話很多人可能就擁有比較多的"},{"start":9068.426,"end":9084.483,"text":"因為獲利多嘛現在普遍上大概投入第一個整個金融性結構進來然後接著有人就會可能另外一種錢是不是就會流到房市去然後會不會再加上當然新青安現在有先占那個那會不會因為這樣子又造成房地產的這個比較巨大的這個波動"},{"start":9087.146,"end":9113.285,"text":"所以所以我們才就說我們的政策就是說是密切的注意密切的注意滾動式的檢討那讓目前的那個整個的整個市場的一個信用不要過度擴張那這是我們的目的那你的手段我看你現在這個但是你現在手段是用原來的這個不動產貸款集中度一年的自主管理就轉向了銀行自主控管所以你現在是把這個把這個"},{"start":9115.046,"end":9121.91,"text":"等於是把這個責任也把這個方向就交到了把這個信用信用度就交到了銀行的手上而不是這個嘛那這樣子的話是不是"},{"start":9125.205,"end":9151.301,"text":"有可能拿到好的效果嗎我覺得銀行對市場的變化會比我們中央銀行來得敏感因為為什麼第一個是他是第一線所以把這個權限還給他的話那他對他來講的話也好他在管理上會比較好那對整個市場的運作也比較健全"},{"start":9151.621,"end":9164.01,"text":"所以意思是說事實上我覺得您這樣的雖然在理監事會裡頭你們開會雖然好像沒有做怎樣的鬆綁但事實上這也是一種政策的鬆綁只是說是不是在房地產這個軟著入是不是"},{"start":9167.552,"end":9184.331,"text":"就是完全了的時候我是覺得 您覺得它還是跌的還是降價幅度還是不夠嘛 是不是相較2020年以來的那個漲幅啦相較它之前漲它的跌幅是還是不足的嘛是 太慢了還是太慢了"},{"start":9186.153,"end":9201.008,"text":"對 只有一點點而已但是還是要兼顧 可能還是要兼顧這個因為少子化 因為這些要育兒的啊 這個會 這個會老百姓這個需要可能也請您要特別注意啦 這個我們會 我們會好 謝謝總裁 謝謝我們結束陳宜萱委員的質詢 接下來請林思敏委員"},{"start":9214.298,"end":9216.724,"text":"好 謝謝莊委 我請總裁請楊總裁"},{"start":9223.587,"end":9246.103,"text":"總裁早 總裁我想上個月6月18號我們在第二季的理監事會中你曾經對我們剛才一直講世代同堂這個名詞不對但是這個是我們俗稱的一個名詞所以對於這種世代同堂的現象你提出一些風險的警告"},{"start":9247.364,"end":9253.595,"text":"其中最重要的一個警告你認為的風險就是說民眾的信用擴張的一個問題但是你的發言"},{"start":9257.665,"end":9284.85,"text":"後來金管會馬上打你的臉那個銀行局他表示他否認有這個風險存在他表示說市場的狀況是合理且沒有異常所以總裁我請教你你發言警告後說央行會持續密切關注發展那現在時間也經過三個多禮拜了嘛您對風險的看法是否還一樣"},{"start":9286.981,"end":9311.571,"text":"我對於風險的看法基本上我中央銀行的態度都是這樣就是說我們對於市場的一個情況如果說它變化是變化的很大的時候不管說它是不是合乎它的規定我們都要警惕"},{"start":9313.171,"end":9319.857,"text":"因為我總覺得星星之火可以燎原所以就是說在你還沒有發生問題的時候你就必須要告訴市場你就是要注意"},{"start":9329.324,"end":9347.173,"text":"所以為了緊盯股市過熱造成的風險央行如你剛才講的你就是會嚴密地控管銀行的放款以免世代同堂造成股市過熱所以你的看法也是這樣"},{"start":9350.896,"end":9360.163,"text":"對啦不過我剛剛也有在講就是說這個世代同堂的這個字眼有一點太所以我說俗稱啦但是呢會讓人家覺得就是說每一個人幾乎就是說要投資股市的話他都可以一個人他可以做這樣式的管道同時來做這樣的一個管道來槓桿那這個是太不可能的央行有看到這個狀況"},{"start":9377.197,"end":9394.642,"text":"主要說每一樣每一樣應該都有而且它增加的速度是快的還是要看他這個人的一個信用的狀況對但是我們在提醒的時候事實上我跟委員報告事實上我們在提醒銀行的時候事實上銀行的大老闆"},{"start":9395.982,"end":9418.378,"text":"他也自己在警告他的相關部門那你的風險控管也要注意在事情發生的不是很嚴重的情況之下你做某種的事情我覺得這是好的"},{"start":9420.119,"end":9447.755,"text":"另外我想針對這個新青安3.0的拍板即將拍板了像央行你內部是否有加強檢視銀行的一個內部不動產貸款的一個控管的一個情況去留意相關政策造成的相關的影響因為政策他是希望說這個新青安3.0可以放寬一個相關貸款的一個政策"},{"start":9448.789,"end":9456.366,"text":"但是我想銀行還是要做內部的一個控管啊所以這兩個部分 你的央行怎麼樣做一個平衡啊"},{"start":9458.203,"end":9480.355,"text":"我覺得就是說某些如果說是主管機關推出來一個政策它的條件比較寬一點我們假如說它比較寬一點譬如像我剛剛也有講就是說5年的寬限期40年的期限我用這兩個很簡單的"},{"start":9486.178,"end":9515.416,"text":"就是說即使主管機關他對這些他有這樣的比較鬆的一個條件但是銀行他在做這個因為符合新清單的人他會到銀行去那銀行他不是說主管機關說可以到達40年他可以到5年他也不見得他會全部都給他因為上個月你說如果有需要剛才你也回答賴斯堡委員你也提到"},{"start":9516.016,"end":9529.146,"text":"央行會向廉政中心索取相關的資料進行比對你會做嚴格的比對不是說你來你符合新青安的資格然後我就馬上就貸款給你你還是要符合相關的5P的原則還有銀行對不動產的授信佔比這些問題你們還是會嚴加的去做一個控管對 應該是吧"},{"start":9539.353,"end":9554.221,"text":"應該是嘛 銀行應該他本身他就是要這樣子如果這個符合新清安的但是他對他的一個信用狀況他也要去真正的去了解不是說他來的話我就40年給他我就5年的關鍵期給他也不是這樣子面造成這個相關的一個風險我想本席上週在這個質詢今晚會的時候曾經提到根據彭博的報導"},{"start":9565.327,"end":9586.695,"text":"因為股票交易引發投資人違約交割的金額在上個月已經超過新台幣20億了創下2019年開始公布資料以來的最高單月紀錄本席也查詢了證交所的6月證件上申報投資人違約金額其中在6月12號"},{"start":9588.456,"end":9603.387,"text":"竟然出現高達15億7千萬的違約金額此外今年以來上市櫃市場的重大違約交割事件也已經累積有16起比如說最近7月2號友達爆發了7325萬元的違約交割金額那6月30號國巨也爆發巨額的這個違約交割高達3880萬"},{"start":9615.856,"end":9627.554,"text":"所以我想請問總裁啊這些違約交割的行為是不是也可以視為是另外一種信用擴張操作的方式之下而所導致的信用破產的結果"},{"start":9629.688,"end":9635.011,"text":"想看違約交割的這個金額竟然在這一個月內陸續的發生啦這個是金管會的職權啦我平常也比較少去引漏這樣的一個的情況不過如果說照剛剛委員這樣子講我在報紙裡面我也稍微也有看到我在想這種違約呢當然是為什麼會違約可能就跟信用也有關係啦"},{"start":9659.303,"end":9666.506,"text":"就跟剛才提到的時代同堂就有關比如說這種違約呢它的次數它的金額如果說它是普遍的普遍的話那就不得了那如果說是個案的話呢那就密切注意它"},{"start":9675.502,"end":9695.264,"text":"所以要去密切注意他就是要密切注意他像這種個案會不會就是說他會變成一個通話案所以央行會把這些巨額違約交剋的情況您剛才提到的列為我們密切關注的重點我也提醒央行要去密切的去關注他"},{"start":9696.225,"end":9701.787,"text":"因為現在股市這麼熱絡這樣不斷發生的巨額違約交割的行為我認為不是說只有這個剛才講的如果未來股市不斷的膨脹這些我們這個違約交割的情況可能還是會發生"},{"start":9714.292,"end":9736.946,"text":"所以我們還是提醒央行你要密切的去關注去留意這個也是涉及到信用中央銀行會在這邊我們討論的這個也是因為經營是我們的也是貨幣信用是我們的職責總裁我再來請教你我們在第二季的李監事會議決議維持政策的律例不變對"},{"start":9738.527,"end":9767.326,"text":"那同時備受市場矚目的就是我們選擇性的信用管制也是按兵不動啦央行沒有升息也沒有進一步的加碼信用管制但同時也沒有鬆綁所以市場的解讀啊央行現在採取的是以進制動的策略現在房市的交易量縮價格盤整投資與投機需求也因為第七波信用管制明顯有降溫嘛"},{"start":9768.567,"end":9794.503,"text":"房市看起來正朝著軟著陸的方向在走但是本席要提醒房市現在冷不代表風險就已經解除了台股現在熱也不代表資金不會再回流到了房地產所以近期台股的表現非常強勢股市的市值大幅的膨脹許多民眾帳面我們看到帳面上的財富是增加"},{"start":9795.484,"end":9816.791,"text":"但是他們就透過股票質押信貸融資等方式來加碼投資如果這些資金如果繼續留在股市是股市的槓桿的風險但是如果是部分資金獲利了結或透過股票的質押"},{"start":9817.611,"end":9838.9,"text":"或者銀行的授信來轉進房地產就有可能變成房市在升溫的風險所以請問總裁央孩在這一次選擇信用管制不鬆綁是否就是擔心台股上漲所帶來的財富效果可能重新流入房市讓房市可能再上漲"},{"start":9840.976,"end":9858.944,"text":"我想就是說我們這三點裡面委員所講到的這一點我們倒是沒有提到不過就是說我也看到網路還有包括委員這樣提出來我總覺得委員這樣的一個擔心好像也有道理"},{"start":9859.804,"end":9873.517,"text":"也有道理所以我想我這個提醒我還是希望你要注意因為我們現在就是因為股市 像你看看很多委員都是在擔心現在股市過熱然後又這個貸款不當的這個有點信用一直膨脹的那種感覺那種現象一直在發生所以如果去控管"},{"start":9882.205,"end":9901.076,"text":"不會讓這些股市如果他們把股市獲利了結之前再把它去投入房市再造成房市的加熱過熱我想這些相關的議題我希望我們央行還是要去密切的注意觀察"},{"start":9902.857,"end":9905.079,"text":"謝謝主席我請央行楊總裁請總裁"},{"start":9937.201,"end":9960.116,"text":"今年6月18號那麼我們央行第二屆第二季理監事會議那有做了大概我把它歸納兩大重點第一個重點就是維持利率不調整那麼第二個就是針對這個維持信用管制的部分打房的這個部分一樣"},{"start":9960.876,"end":9989.853,"text":"也是繼續維持那這一點很好我今天要跟你探討的就是這兩件事情第一件事情我先從這個房市維持信用管制講起我覺得這一點總裁你們這一點確實有堅持那麼這一個風骨啊我非常肯定因為這當中有很多房地產業者甚至民間的大戶他們透過各種方式"},{"start":9990.633,"end":10014.534,"text":"還做成新聞都一直在針對央行這個政策那麼都一直用盡各種方法就是希望你們反轉那我看114年到現在這115年5月剛好這兩年裡面我們從開始管制那麼我們的目標要壓到房市在放款月額佔35%一直維持到"},{"start":10018.267,"end":10033.062,"text":"現在為止我們已經從37.61兩年來降到35.17我覺得已經對這個目標算是有達成所以我希望維持信用管制能夠繼續下去"},{"start":10035.124,"end":10052.043,"text":"為什麼呢因為我們台灣的房價確實全世界可以說我們是數一數二啦這個我們的房價指數過高那麼這個房價指數我們不但漲幅是全世界名列前茅"},{"start":10053.171,"end":10077.113,"text":"而且我舉一個例子你看我們今年的四月份才稍微放寬一下一個月馬上馬上就有24億元又湧入房市照說四月份正式高科技股市大好的時候結果你只要稍微一點點的放鬆"},{"start":10078.374,"end":10088.392,"text":"結果馬上大筆的資金要湧入房市而且這個湧入房市我都覺得這個有一些是因為我們"},{"start":10090.651,"end":10115.086,"text":"國內我們就是對房屋持有成本低嘛再加上要囤房的代價小我們利率一直那麼低所以富豪是坐擁多屋啦那現在生斗小民是一宅難求所以我覺得這個策略我們繼續維持信用管制這是非常正確的你看"},{"start":10115.887,"end":10123.709,"text":"連我們最保守的內政部他在估住宅價格的時候他把"},{"start":10125.351,"end":10153.073,"text":"當中實價房屋累積的漲幅都來到25%都高過澳洲、美國甚至新加坡、南韓等這些國家所以確確實實我們台灣房價的漲幅在世界是名列前茅我希望維持信用管制這一點楊總裁你們能夠堅持好不好"},{"start":10158.11,"end":10163.317,"text":"另外一點就是導致利率我有一些看法可能就是"},{"start":10164.571,"end":10184.683,"text":"可能跟總裁您這邊可能要探討一下就是說你看我舉光2022年一年美國2022年一年一年以後他們一年連調了四次大概有三碼之多"},{"start":10185.583,"end":10201.07,"text":"的這個利息而我們我們連這三年我們連一碼也不調一碼也沒有升當然我知道你有多方面包括匯率的考量我們這個出口的部分可是可是"},{"start":10205.307,"end":10222.961,"text":"我們的通貨膨脹 CPI指數現在已經高到都已經達到警戒線都已經達到2%了連你們自己的估計喔連你們的估計也是估這個今年第二季的"},{"start":10224.002,"end":10241.185,"text":"通貨膨脹率你們也是估2.6%你們甚至認為7月還會在2%以上抱歉這是主計總數主計總數的估計那你們當初預估今年的第二季"},{"start":10242.273,"end":10268.513,"text":"CPI 2.1那事實上還更高了不是嗎事實上已經來到2.17所以我認為當CPI高有點通膨的時候來到警戒線的時候是不是在國外尤其美國他們都以適度的調高利率來調節這個物價"},{"start":10273.052,"end":10294.823,"text":"而在這一次的你們的理監事會議裡面當然以您的意見為主導最後還是不調但是當中有兩位理事他們也提起說是不是可以適度的用利率來控制通膨加上這個最近"},{"start":10296.284,"end":10302.498,"text":"這個在AI產品有一個新名稱這個新名稱就是AI通膨"},{"start":10306.06,"end":10321.77,"text":"因為我們高科技產品電子產品原物料的上漲那這一個部分因為AI需求的強勁那帶動這些上漲我們六月啊教養設備跟用具CPI年成率是7.39真的是符合"},{"start":10326.28,"end":10339.21,"text":"符合這個AI通膨你看那個你房間去看蘋果電腦現在漲幅啊它漲幅上萬元耶華碩電腦也預計漲15%到20%所以AI通膨"},{"start":10346.963,"end":10371.699,"text":"民生的大家都有感所以是不是要維持物價的平穩我們應該適度的針對利率來做調整調高 你看法呢事實上委員講的也沒有錯就是說當我們的物價當我們的物價如果說是超過2%以上你就要考慮"},{"start":10374.221,"end":10401.619,"text":"不過我們這一次沒有把它就是說已經是大概就是接近2%那2%我跟委員報告2%來講的話基本上它是比較屬於中長期的指標因為在我們的報告裡面也有談到就是說事實上一般的機構包括一般的機構都認為說我們明年我們的物價水準就會下來的"},{"start":10402.281,"end":10405.212,"text":"你說哪一些機構你看看 我們的報告理論有啊"},{"start":10408.12,"end":10431.761,"text":"我們來報告第四頁在今天最新的資料裡面有20家你看看我們的第四頁裡面我們有20家的主要的機構對我們本年台灣通膨的預測平均值為1.9它是今年是1.9但是明年它是給我們1.7"},{"start":10434.944,"end":10448.912,"text":"是1.7所以我們才會說顯示國內通膨預期尚屬穩定委員再講到美國調升利息速度非常快這個我也稍微解釋一下當時美國的通膨那時候到8% 9% 10%"},{"start":10454.963,"end":10479.735,"text":"那那個時候我們台灣只有3點幾%相差很大到目前為止我跟委員報告到目前為止美國的通膨他的通膨到目前他還3.81他的CPI還3.81喔3.81的話而且他的這個3.81到目前為止已經是持續了很久了"},{"start":10480.715,"end":10487.038,"text":"所以呢他市場川普是希望那個美國呢聯準會要調降利息但是他遲遲不趕那遲遲不趕為什麼因為他的通膨實在現在通膨還越來越加劇通膨越來越加劇現在3.81你的意思就是說你們的預測你根據另外有幾家共同的預測認為明年會往下調所以"},{"start":10510.47,"end":10536.335,"text":"會在2.7左右1.71.7左右所以因為基於這樣所以你們還是維持利率不調是這樣子的好啊那我再舉一個例子這個利率跟房價我們剛剛講我們透過信用管制就是我們台灣的房價已經漲到一般生斗小民沒有房子可以住買不起嘛那你看我們從民國64年來就一個表格"},{"start":10539.396,"end":10548.105,"text":"一直到96年一直到現在為止目前為止你看民國64年當房價當利率10.75的時候房價2萬2萬3 5萬一直上來你看房價開始大漲的時候一下來到25萬的時候就是利率降到7.75"},{"start":10561.679,"end":10578.445,"text":"民國78年是剛好一個分界齡來到民國89年也是又另外一個分界齡民國89年的時候當時利率也是下滑到4.6抱歉"},{"start":10579.608,"end":10593.255,"text":"你看那個房價就一直飆高一直飆高一直飆高到現在來到平均這是中古屋的房價平均60萬3你有管制以後從64萬6現在平均到60萬3但是利率1.125"},{"start":10599.338,"end":10608.746,"text":"所以如果我們從最高當初民國64年也就是說這50年來10.75%的利率盪到1.125房價從2萬塊錢上升了30倍來到60.3而每一次都是利率高那麼"},{"start":10623.089,"end":10644.377,"text":"房價漲幅就比較低那當利率低的時候房價就大幅上漲你可以看這個關係圖好不好那這個關係圖當然也能不能由央行從這裡面你找出看有哪一些你認為有不對的有什麼端倪但是事實是如此所以適度的"},{"start":10644.817,"end":10671.937,"text":"調高利率在通膨的時候可以抑制通膨然後同時也可以抑制房價的漲幅因為我們台灣房價之所以會被炒作到這麼高就是因為大家持有的成本囤房的成本太低了都是因為利率好不好好謝謝我們結束王世堅委員的執行接下來鍾嘉賓鍾嘉賓鍾嘉賓委員不在接下來請羅明才委員"},{"start":10682.045,"end":10692.754,"text":"主席 各位初列席 觀音大好主席 可否請業務局的謝鳳英 謝局長請謝局長謝局長你好那業務局啊大概平常你中管什麼樣的範圍那最近有什麼要注意的"},{"start":10712.597,"end":10737.455,"text":"比較廣泛像公關市場操作、準備金調整、支付系統的一個運作還有選擇性信用管制大概的涉及到新牌幣的央行的業務都在業務局裡面所以選擇性的信用管制大概你們面對的就是大概是38家的本土銀行那現在國外的銀行跟你們業務往來多不多"},{"start":10738.752,"end":10767.791,"text":"我們有外商銀行 有啊 我們國外銀行我們每家的銀行都有做跨國的就是有做外匯的業務嘛當然就會跟國外有往來是 我們台股的市值從過去大概十幾名成長到現在台股的市值大概是全世界排名第四或第五可是我們相對的來看台灣的外匯的交易情況"},{"start":10768.992,"end":10797.979,"text":"好像沒有因為股市的蓬勃發展而造成台幣對美元或者是日元等等這些外匯業務的成長這兩者之間為什麼會差那麼多就好比過去台股的市值只有大概6兆多突然間成長到現在160兆是不是央行應該與時俱進來做一些若干的調整"},{"start":10798.539,"end":10812.087,"text":"那很多人外商都在講說台幣根本也不方便這沒有人要委員你講這句話的時候我要把事實的跟委員報告事實上我們的外匯的外資的進出非常龐大非常龐大所以非常龐大但是非常龐大的時候在我們管理上它是我們的挑戰"},{"start":10828.868,"end":10833.751,"text":"沒有 你即便在龐大你面對的高額的企業或者是這個超牌或者基金其實加一加就是那一百家不對 我跟委員報告事實上"},{"start":10844.256,"end":10870.319,"text":"外資他的進出的時候他的單方向他是非常單方向他不是進出進出進出如果說他的進出進出如果互相offset的話那很好那就平衡但是他不是他要出去的時候他非常巨額的單邊的出去他要進來的時候單邊的巨額的進來而且非常的集中那你怕不怕那當然啊"},{"start":10871.974,"end":10878.575,"text":"既然這個量那麼大你是不是會想什麼方法讓他在市場自然的hedge掉沒有 因為我跟委員報告外商的操作是非常靈活的他不會像你就想像的就說我要替台灣的外匯市場的穩定我要來替他著想所以我要hedge或是什麼樣的我們也允許他hedge"},{"start":10901.901,"end":10903.614,"text":"但是他黑集的金額不大"},{"start":10904.653,"end":10924.459,"text":"那你覺得美國華爾街的市場跟台灣差在哪裡那當然美元的市場美元的市場是全球的市場啊美元是一個大的那個它是G1啊台灣是small open是小的開放的經濟體啊台灣的市場沒辦法跟美國的市場來比較啊可是我們的股市市值已經到全世界第四大了啊"},{"start":10934.902,"end":10961.753,"text":"有些時候所以我跟委員報告它的推升有一大部分有一部分很大一部分就是我們的外資推上去的另外一部分外面有個聲音就是說央行遲遲不改變是不是因為央行的理監室裡面有一些比較特殊性的立場"},{"start":10962.993,"end":10981.534,"text":"沒有吧他有什麼特殊立場我可以在這裡鄭重的跟委員報告沒有我們的理事沒有就有一些是特別的那個立場絕對沒有你的理事有一些是來自民間機構啊有的甚至以前還有銀行啊"},{"start":10982.415,"end":10983.715,"text":"我們銀行的代表兩位哪兩位一個是勇豐一個是趙鋒勇豐就是陳董趙鋒就是董瑞兵"},{"start":11006.235,"end":11009.838,"text":"張董董董董董董董董董董董董董董"},{"start":11026.958,"end":11053.584,"text":"但是後來他也就離開了那這些理事的立場會不會跟國際化的立場那我跟委員報告如果說兩席那十幾席裡面兩席如果說他有特殊的立場的話呢他也沒辦法就是說完全來dominate總裁我請問現在一般銀行的心態他是希望利率漲還是希望利率跌"},{"start":11055.146,"end":11078.659,"text":"沒有啊這個利率的話呢我們的理事你看看我們的理事第一個他也是跟那個通膨來掛鍋的啊如果通膨高的話那當然就是利率要提高啊如果通膨低的時候呢利率就要往下調啊民間的銀行啊在他的利益考量他覺得利率要高還是低比較好"},{"start":11080.517,"end":11084.1,"text":"我們的理事他不會純粹就他的立場來發言他會用他的專業來發言這樣子啦 因為時間關係總裁 央行的這些交易制度你們會不會嘗試讓他更開放"},{"start":11096.853,"end":11121.328,"text":"我們本來就很開放的啊沒有啊 你跟新加坡比沒有 因為新加坡他是金融中心但是雖然他是金融中心但是我跟委員報告一下他也是監控得很嚴謹的監控沒關係啊 我也是要監控啊但是他也資金進出也非常自由啊"},{"start":11123.357,"end":11126.307,"text":"新加坡對於外資的賄賂有沒有限制"},{"start":11130.337,"end":11155.875,"text":"我們沒有限制啊我們只有我們的自然人而已啊我們自己國人啊請問那個總裁自然人一個人個人要匯出去美金要匯出去國外一年是多少我們是一千萬啊一千萬是美金嗎對啊好那有多少人企業要匯出去一億啊一億但是呢我跟委員報告"},{"start":11157.267,"end":11171.238,"text":"我們自然人雖然我們有做這樣的一個限制就說這一年一千萬但是如果說他是透過銀行體系出去的他沒有他透過銀行體系出去進來的都沒有限制"},{"start":11171.96,"end":11190.397,"text":"那為什麼我們的限制會跟新加坡差那麼多沒有啊他也是可以就是說進出我們的那個什麼你透過那個銀行體系的話你也可以進出自由啊那你剛剛講的自然人會出一千萬美金那是他個人要不要調高啊"},{"start":11191.098,"end":11197.787,"text":"要不要調高啊我們本來是五千萬五百萬現在把它調高到一千萬最近才調高的最近調高對啊夠不夠啊因為我來請教啦一千萬的話是相當於多少錢三億多啊三億多"},{"start":11209.561,"end":11234.31,"text":"但是還有一個前提如果說他3億多他要進出進出好你在這個1000萬裡面你不必要讓我們知道但是你如果超過的話讓我們知道你都可以進出總裁你有沒有統計一下就是說台灣這一次因為股市大漲大概超過身上的財富超過1億以上你知道有多少人"},{"start":11235.964,"end":11259.461,"text":"我是不曉得啦 不曉得 不過我跟委員報告啦我跟他就是在講 他說他如果經過銀行體系的話 他都沒有受到限制他只是說他個人的名利要出去的時候呢 他是受到限制但是呢 你如果超過這個金額的時候呢 你讓我知道 我都不會 只是讓我知道而已"},{"start":11262.039,"end":11285.994,"text":"讓我知道而已啊那你都可以進出自由啊現在一個比較更自由經濟的時代來臨了全世界包括阿布達比他們對於資金的進出採取的是一個很開放的一個制度最吸引的全世界的資金進去阿布達比最近很多國家都反而是說得更緊"},{"start":11288.496,"end":11310.129,"text":"哪一個國家?像印度啦不要跟印度比啦好啦,那沒錯啦,但是我們都是已經很開放啦不要啦,總裁你要跟美國或是跟新加坡比我們跟新加坡也沒有差多少啊你心裡不要一直想印度啦"},{"start":11311.948,"end":11323.138,"text":"我不是說只有它 印尼也是啊不要啦 你就不要想那個你想比較進步一點的地方比如說美國 日本最後一個問題因為大陸在看現在印美人兌換日幣兌換多少大概是"},{"start":11338.412,"end":11364.44,"text":"162162左右這個是不是對國人來說甜蜜點出現很多的民眾他說我這日幣好便宜喔我是不是應該多換一點日幣因為台灣都很喜歡去日本去旅遊去年大概說1000萬人次反正那麼便宜趁機減便宜反正放著總有一天會用得到請問"},{"start":11366.314,"end":11382.494,"text":"那個總裁現在是不是換日幣的一個甜蜜點所以講到雖然我不是直接回答你的問題所以呢我稍微偏一下所以呢你看看我們的民眾他要買日幣都很自由啊"},{"start":11384.128,"end":11404.761,"text":"對不對 你說填秘密 填秘密的話他要結構多少 他都可以結構的啊所以你就說自由 這個是相當自由啊所以說總裁 現在這個是一個很好的點 去換日幣嗎"},{"start":11407.865,"end":11434.549,"text":"對每一個人呢他的一個benchmark他的一個判斷的標準是不大一樣的對很多人據我了解對很多人來講的他認為就是說現在是多元日幣也是一個好好的價格所以他就去買了日幣也就是說在非常自由的情況之下呢他要買多少他都可以買多少好那總裁請問那你的外匯存底裡面現在日幣的持有比例是多少我們持有的比例不高"},{"start":11435.963,"end":11455.45,"text":"1點多3點多以前不高有沒有3%應該應該我現在我不曉得應該很低啦很低啦那知道不用啦就是說大家私下我去查一查我告訴你不是你現在外匯存底現在利幣那麼低你會考量"},{"start":11456.431,"end":11478.95,"text":"提高日幣作為我們的外匯儲備我們有啊只是說不高而已啊會不會增加會不會考慮增加增加不增加我們就看我們隨時調整啊今天會不會調整調整的時候有些時候是調高有些時候調低你都講都沒有講出來"},{"start":11483.073,"end":11485.215,"text":"中央銀行 楊金榮 楊總裁"},{"start":11510.595,"end":11522.931,"text":"很早總來早辛苦了這一陣子壓力會不會比較大我想應該一直以來都是這樣子壓力的話大概就是都是這樣子"},{"start":11524.995,"end":11531.778,"text":"因為壓力一定是有的啦隨時都有新的變化嘛對 委員講的沒有錯啦現在的uncertainty是越來越頻繁不確定性越來越多 風險值越來越高"},{"start":11544.705,"end":11558.88,"text":"從您的報告來跟您請教幾個問題就是說你們在判斷通膨啊我們從CPI來看CPI 6月份CPI年增率是2.6%是17個月新高核心CPI年增率也到2.15%"},{"start":11561.303,"end":11577.218,"text":"那你現在就是您的這個說法是說你們會密切觀察到底這個你們判斷烘蓬有沒有一個到底可控可控相對於可控就是失控或者不可控可控或失控的你們有沒有一個明確的門檻"},{"start":11579.244,"end":11605.84,"text":"對於通膨這個問題 你要去做判斷這通膨已經快到失控 你要讓他採取一些作為所以說可控你又可以現在還沒做到委員那個那個那個那個垂詢的很好就是說2.6你的意思是說2.6是不是失控我不是 我說你可控的量化門檻在哪裡那當然就是說我們年的平均是2%"},{"start":11607.29,"end":11623.52,"text":"年的平均是2%所以你現在年的是1.93那如果到2就代表說可能會便宜失控那也不是說2就失控了美國現在多少美國現在是3.84"},{"start":11625.189,"end":11652.927,"text":"美國的特殊狀況不一樣啊怎麼會特殊狀況 每一個國家中央銀行看的都是差不多的那個 都是同樣的那個數據啊如果我們到美國那個水準 你覺得是應該失控了吧對啊 就我們來講的話 它大概失控但是美國它是3.84咧您的見解 您的判斷是說以年2%是做一個 不過我跟委員報告啦"},{"start":11653.507,"end":11669.357,"text":"美國在講說他現在3.84那為什麼他沒有調升利率而且呢他沒有調降利率因為他的3.84呢他是只有短期間他認為是這樣因為他認為他的預測呢他說我2027年2028年我可以達到2%"},{"start":11676.761,"end":11686.848,"text":"那表示什麼呢 表示說他的2%是中長期的目標而不是現在我的3.84%我就要馬上調升他認為說我兩年以後我會到達2%所以我的國家狀況不太一樣我們找時間再跟您討論另外就是說"},{"start":11699.693,"end":11723.645,"text":"您的對房市的管制第七波已經是最後不會再有第八波我們滾動式檢討幾次七波的醫治房價措施您覺得效果怎麼樣我覺得第一個就是說他的一個信用在集中到他那邊去比較慢慢的堪當下來了"},{"start":11724.882,"end":11730.969,"text":"所以會有進一步再放鬆嗎未來當然啊未來如果說某一個時點未來有可能再放寬嗎應該是會啊我們不可能我想一個管制不會就是說永遠管制下去了"},{"start":11742.628,"end":11756.1,"text":"喔對不對那只要說timing就是你的時間你放寬的時間是在什麼時候放寬時間點很重要對對對最重要的是另外你之前啊這個在10年前"},{"start":11756.823,"end":11774.142,"text":"中央銀行對於金融機構辦理購置高價住宅貸款的業務狀況所以這個叫做所謂我們認知的豪宅的門檻我跟委員報告但是你們是高價住宅但是2016其實在台北市你用這7000萬去買的房子絕對不是豪宅"},{"start":11779.149,"end":11795.649,"text":"那當然那是高價住宅那是不是豪宅所以呢所以這個是2016年訂定的這個業務規定經過10年這些所謂高價住宅的門檻你們會不會有會思考在未來會思考會做一些的調整"},{"start":11797.524,"end":11811.45,"text":"我現在跟委員報告啦我們沒有對豪宅的定義我們只是說高價住宅那高價住宅呢也就是說信用管制呢他是說對於這種比較高價的呢我要做比較強比較強的一個管制這完全同意一樣的道理啊那個財政部為了他的稅再30秒"},{"start":11825.676,"end":11843.12,"text":"我提醒這個總裁就是說在2016嘛當時的股市跟人均GDP跟現在10年之後完全不一樣嘛所以各種法律規定各種業務規定應該與時俱進去做一些宏觀的調控那方向怎麼樣你再去思考怎麼樣管制最合理最合情最合法我非常同意那個委員現在所說的2016 10年前他的股市是多少"},{"start":11853.803,"end":11868.728,"text":"他的人均GDP是多少跟現在他的股市是多少人均GDP是多少央行在做選擇性信用管制的時候我們的衡量標準是他的強度"},{"start":11869.793,"end":11881.683,"text":"他的強度而不在於就是說他的所得已經高到哪裡如果說我的信用資源太過流向那邊去的時候我的對於高價住宅的強度也許"},{"start":11889.21,"end":11907.5,"text":"不是輕鬆的往的速效的謝謝總裁對你之前的一些相關說法我們都以認同那也不讓房市慢慢的往下跌往下到一個合理的區間那我覺得這個管制是必要的那也是合理的那就是讓"},{"start":11908.52,"end":11924.633,"text":"防止回歸一個正常的狀況那我覺得這個要給您肯定不過這個做一個洋商總裁總是壓力非常大外匯也好因為還有很多問題要給你請教下次有機會的話還有外匯好 謝謝我們結束邱志偉委員的質詢謝謝我們接下來請葉文芝委員"},{"start":11944.209,"end":11945.213,"text":"主席 麻煩請總裁請總裁"},{"start":11953.44,"end":11976.786,"text":"因為現在根據你們報告現在都預估在2%以上那足跡總出資預估已經到2.6那目前看起來是不是還沒有升息的打算可是你剛剛提到美國像美國的FED都說如果他們擔心物價持續上漲的話會考慮升息那目前央行的考慮是什麼"},{"start":11978.267,"end":11996.947,"text":"因為他也是要根據他的Protection他的那個預測啊我剛才也在講就是說他現在都是3.84他現在是3.81那如果說他在3.81就是很高咧那如果說他的通膨再上去的時候那當然他如果說那我要升息的話好像"},{"start":11998.689,"end":12018.991,"text":"因為實際上現在3C都漲了嘛我說3C產品很多都漲了嘛然後外食啊什麼各方面都漲房租也都漲所以其實看起來你說CPI2%是在警戒線的但是一般民眾的體感的通膨其實不只這樣所以我覺得那個央行在"},{"start":12020.297,"end":12047.659,"text":"在這個解讀數據的時候可能要做一些還是要做一些就是有一些跟民眾相關的感覺相關的一些評估啦該做的還是要做嘛不能完全按照這個這個我同意 這個我也同意第二個跟那個總裁請教一下因為我們現在經濟成長率連三年都明顯高於預期嘛對不對 然後那當然經濟好就會引發需求性的通膨嘛那現在"},{"start":12049.98,"end":12075.582,"text":"經濟好經濟好然後這個為什麼還是一樣回到剛剛那個問題就是因為經濟好所以你們又認為說不會通膨到底是為什麼我跟委員報告這一點我們在報告裡面我們也有談到啦也就是說我們的經濟好主要的是在哪裡大家都知道都是出口都是出口"},{"start":12076.463,"end":12097.72,"text":"事實上我們的消費是算是穩健而已不是說非常非常的好引起通膨的壓力而我們的經濟的好主要是出口所以我們出口的物價反而比我們的進口物價還要高但是出口物價高是對方在接受的"},{"start":12100.942,"end":12121.95,"text":"因為我們經濟好對不對我們經濟好然後就會刺激大家有錢了嘛有錢就會刺激消費嘛對 但是我們的消費因為你也知道就是說因為我們的這個我們的AO就是說是傳統產業對 可見可見就是總裁的意思是說我們現在雖然經濟成長率很高但是其實我們現在"},{"start":12122.99,"end":12136.045,"text":"不同產業有不同的狀況嗎是集中在像AI半導體伺服器這種嗎但是傳統產業或其他經濟沒有那麼好嘛你的意思大概是這樣相較之下經濟沒有這麼好那如果是這樣子的話像央行這邊有沒有什麼貨幣工具啊是可以做平衡的"},{"start":12143.433,"end":12160.529,"text":"所以我們才會就是說當我們認為就是信用市場稍微就是說啊比較熱絡一點我們所以比較緊一點的話呢你看那個存單從7兆的下降到6兆多這個是緊的一個象徵"},{"start":12162.11,"end":12179.817,"text":"在這個時候呢我們也考慮到就是說我們除了就是說是出口的那些的產業很好以外其他的呢還是普通啊那普通的時候呢所以我們的而且呢因為我們的通膨也不是很高所以呢我們的利率呢所以就維持"},{"start":12180.437,"end":12205.334,"text":"我是說央行應該有沒有針對我們台灣現在等於是M型社會 K型社會所以我們也有談到在我們的貨幣政策裡面我們有提到就是說貨幣政策呢在如果說是一個很normal distribution的一個產業的情況之下的話呢貨幣政策比較有效但是如果說M型的時候呢那他就比較會受到挑戰我再問一下"},{"start":12206.054,"end":12230.62,"text":"因為現在我們台幣的匯率相對美國還是在弱勢但是我們的股票你說我們是弱勢相對美國啦美元啦我看到你們好像講說是因為外資現在賺的錢就跑了嘛所以他們跑當然就買美元嘛那這樣子是代表說外資不會再回來嗎股市的前景你看怎麼樣他出去他也會回來啊"},{"start":12231.9,"end":12253.447,"text":"資金就是這樣子 資金有出它就會也進 只是說最近它是出去的比較多所以之後回來之後 我們台幣又會升值基本上是 大部分也是這樣 就出去的時候新台幣會貶值它如果大量進來的時候 新台幣也會升值你覺得外資來有沒有持續看好台股我覺得它還是看好啊"},{"start":12254.326,"end":12256.268,"text":"因為我們的基本面我們的AI的這個產業他還相當好所以他投進來的大部分都是這些電子電子那個自動性產品啊"},{"start":12269.359,"end":12283.628,"text":"最後一個小問題總裁一直講說不太可能會出現世代同堂的狀況因為銀行會自己把關你說銀行會把關不太會出現世代同堂我覺得我們應該相信銀行實際上銀行在審查個人貸款的時候是看一個無擔保負擔不得超過"},{"start":12291.252,"end":12311.834,"text":"月收入的22倍叫做DBR22但是世貸同堂裡面很多其實跟DBR22無關比如說像融資股票質押這就是你有擔保品嘛這就不是無擔保品嘛然後還有房貸房貸也是有擔保品對然後再來就是只有就是信用貸款是沒有擔保品對所以其實"},{"start":12312.975,"end":12336.96,"text":"要監管絕大多數都是跟無單貿易無關只有信用貸款所以一個年輕人他只要有房子他有股票他就是有可能會做到世代同堂所以這個跟總裁你講的世代同堂不容易發生不是我的意思就是說一個人除非就是說他非常有錢"},{"start":12338.4,"end":12358.872,"text":"他有車子他有房子有房子有股票也不難啊他有股票有房子有股票有信用就可以世代同堂了像這樣的話呢他的除非就是說每一個人都是非常富有不是富有他就是有房子有但現在大家為什麼講世代同堂是因為股市很熱大家把所有的東西都拿去投到股市裡面嘛"},{"start":12359.532,"end":12373.107,"text":"所以他身上很多貸款嘛但是一旦股票出現假設啦 股票有波動那這些私在同償就完蛋了因為他房子什麼什麼全部拿去抵押了嘛而且還會背債啊所以大家在討論這件事情所以我覺得總 那個"},{"start":12374.485,"end":12397.71,"text":"但那麼多委員講這個事情 應該是要請總裁注意到這個狀況我也是注意啦 當然我也是有就是說事後同償不容易出現 我覺得這樣的態度是沒有任何問題啦不過我的意思就是說 請總裁繼續簡短回應好不好但是呢 一個人要就是說 全部這四樣把它包起來然後去借錢 我覺得是比較"},{"start":12400.75,"end":12415.736,"text":"人數比較不多啦人數比較多不會那麼多那如果說你是一樣一樣一樣一樣的話那當然啊因為他是增加的他是增加的他是增加的他是增加的那我們知道也就是說信用是有在槓桿所以就是要小心啊"},{"start":12416.096,"end":12420.598,"text":"是是是好謝謝我們結束葉元之委員的質詢謝謝元之委員好今日登記發言委員均都已經詢答完畢本日會議做如下決定報告及詢答完畢委員質詢未及答覆或請補充資料"},{"start":12434.986,"end":12461.736,"text":"请央行于一周之内以书面答复委员令要求期限者重启锁定委员红一翔委员严焕龙委员所提的书面质询都会列入记录刊登公报并请中央银行以书面答复本次会议议程已进行完毕上游不在场的委员补题书面质询一并列入记录刊登公报并请议事人员协助处理我们散会谢谢"},{"start":12467.086,"end":12467.106,"text":"總裁謝謝"}]}},"supported_relations":[],"relations":[]}